August 18, 2011
4G Deployment Update
Wayne Sun
CIO
Global Mobile Corporation.
1
Licensed date
 License of business: Northern Taiwan
 Population: 13 million
 30MHz, 2595~2625MHz
Launch Date
 Jan. 5 2010 – Hsinchu City & County
 May 20, 2010 – Taipei City
 2011 - New Taipei and Tao Yuan
2
population: 53%
Internet usage: 80%
population: 47%
Internet usage: 20%
人口 100萬 以上
3
人口 50萬 以上
核心
地域
(北部)
Taipei (660萬)
Taoyuan(310萬)
Jhongli
重點
地域
(中,南)
Taichung (430萬)
Kaosiung(380萬)
Changhua
Chiayi
Tainan
Pintong
連江縣
2009 (1.5M POPs)
•
Hsinchu City, County
Taipei
City
Taoyuan
County
2010～2011 (8.5M POPs)
•
Taipei City
•
New Taipei City
•
Roaming:
•
Domestic service to south Taiwan
•
International – U.S., Korea (Japan and
4
Taipei
County
Hsinchu
City
Hsinchu
County
Taoyuan County
Malaysia to come)
Keelung
City
Lienchiang
County
Miaoli
County
Yilan
County
• Provide best 4G service
• Leader in 4G service in Greater China with
660,000 users by 2011
• Achieve 90% coverage in northern Taiwan by
2014
• Consolidation with other 4G license
• Pioneer in 4G launch, collaboration with
China
• Capture 10% of market share in Taiwan
mobile broadband market
5
4G
OPPORTUNITY AND
CHALLENGES
6
Global Mobile Data Traffic – 108% CAGR expected
Equivalent to….
22,500,000 B
180,000 B
18,000 B
3,600 B
900 B
2.4 B
Million Terabyte/month
5
4
3
(160 B/each)
(20 KB/each)
(200 KB/each)
(1 MB/min)
(4 MB/each)
(1.5 GB/each)
2
2.2m
1
0
0.09m
Source : Cisco, Feb 2010
7
text messages
text emails
web page views
minutes of YouTube video
Music downloads
HD video downloads
0.2m
0.6m
1.2m
3.6m TB
Internet penetration
Internet web popularity
Social Networking
3 out of top 10 websites in
Taiwan are Google web sites:
• Facebook is #2 in terms of popularity.
• About 59% of online user are
members of Facebook
(~41% of population),
driving growth of smartphones and
apps even further.
• 75% of users are below 34 years.
#4 Google TW
#5 YouTube
#3 Google Int.
(#15 Blogger)
There are 3x more mobile broadband subscribers
(16.5m at end of 2010) than fixed broadband.
Taiwan’s first fully digital generation
What happens if today's youngsters (~15.6% age group 0-14 years) become adults?
•
•
•
•
What will be important then?
How will they use communication services?
What devices will be used?
How do trends shape new behavior and patterns?
Source: CIA world fact book, Alexa.com, ITU
8
High-end devices multiply traffic
E-reader
=
x2
Smartphone
=
x 10 - 24
Mobile Broadband Subscriber [Billion]
3.0
2.5
Mobile Handheld
2.0
Mobile Laptop
1.5
Handheld game
console
=
x 60*
1.0
0.5
Tablet
=
x 122*
Mobile Phone
Projector
=
x 300
Laptop
=
x 515-1,300
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mobile Internet Traffic [ExaByte/year]
25
20
Example: HSPA Devices, GSMA 4/’11
Besides ~3000 HSPA devices, there is a
growing number of devices others than mobile
phones, laptops… that support HSPA as well:
• 48 Personal Media Players, UMPCs
• 24 Femtocells
• 12 E-book readers
• 8 Cameras
• 27 Mobile tablets
9
Mobile Handheld
Mobile Laptop
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Smartphone penetration acceleration
•Sales:
20-25% of handsets sold in 2009,
30-40% in 2010-2011(est.), then >50%
•Device variety: more exciting devices
in 2010, non-exclusive iPhone, Androidbased tablet, PCs, …
•Pull and Push
Strong consumer pull, CSPs push
Taiwan: iPhone and Android based devices are
the most often used to surf the internet.
40,00
35,00
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
31.4%
10,00
5,00
10%
0,00
Penetration of customer base (%)
Smartphone owners in France (%)
% of smartphone handsets sold
Source: Exane BNP Paribas, 2010; NSN 2011
10
iPhone
Android
NetFront
Nokia
Source: StatCounter Webbrowser, 02/2010-02/2011
Opera
iPodTouch
Question: What do you do on the Internet?
Group
Average
in %
Browsing &
searching the web
Brazil
Algeria
South Africa
Russia
Romania
(n=545 fixed)
(n=706 mob)
(n=663 fixed)
(n=49 mob)
(n=500 fixed)
(n=55 mob)
(n=291 fixed)
(n=306 mob)
(n=645 fixed)
(n=132 mob)
(n=700 fixed)
(n=101 mob)
93
95
Reading/
Sending e-Mails
91
92
Downloading
smaller files (<10MB)
Downloading
larger files (>10MB)
63
78
Playing online games
27
34
IP Telephony/Calling
27
24
92
98
91
96
89
82
88
98
90
98
94
89
98
92
90
86
59
84
53
51
47
55
61
45
12
29
15
16
5
11
76
62
7
16
87
45
19
19
64
65
27
42
46
46
61
64
Fixed Internet at home at least weekly
Mobile Internet anywhere at least monthly
11
45
45
33
22
33
19
20
68
79
52
57
28
27
22
84
91
41
36
32
47
6
19
18
28
33
34
37
52
71
48
57
54
72
82
27
95
97
57
68
56
71
72
33
44
46
51
65
Uploading files
98
98
38
47
52
52
18
26
93
97
67
83
40
49
Watching videos,
using web cam
Watching
high definition TV
Indonesia
30
36
18
23
69
29
45
17
27
Top 10 mobile web sites
Top 10 fixed web sites
1. Google
1. Google Local
2. Google
3. Facebook
4. Yahoo!
5. YouTube
6. Blogger.com
7. Wikipedia
8. Orkut
9. Rediff.com
2. Facebook
3. YouTube
4. Orkut
5. Getjar
6. Zedge.net
7. Yahoo!
8. Wikipedia
9. Songs.pk
10. Vuclip.com
10. Twitter
Opera.com August 2010
Alexa.com December 2010
12
Seven of
the top 10
are the
same
Mobile video traffic will exceed 50% of total mobile data in 2011,and
Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category
2008
2015
20.9% Mobile Web-Data
6.1% Mobile P2P
4.7% Mobile M2M
1.5% Mobile Gaming
0.4% Mobile VoIP
P2P
65%
Latency Insensitive
1 2
Video
66.4%
Latency 1Sensitive
2
Source: Based on 12% smartphones 2008 and 25% 2012 (Bank of America Merrill Lynch report); Cisco VNI, 2011
13
14
Source: Cisco VNI, June 2011
Source: UBS, as of Q310
15
Source: Credit Swiss, Asia Pacific/Taiwan Equity Research
16
No other technology but 4G has the capacity
to deal with growing data traffic demands!
In the past month, our 4G customers are using:
Top DL: 1,708 GB
Top UL: 375 GB
On average, 8.2 GB per customer!
TRS
G1
WiMAX
WCDMA
HSPA+
GSM
Source: Global Mobile Corp. June 2011
17
17
Nielsen’s Law and Edholm’s Law
100000.00
10000.00
MB per second
1000.00
Nielsen’s Law
of fixed internet bandwidth
Linear
extrapolation
GPON 100 Mbps
WiMAX – 40 Mbps
VDSL2 25-50 Mbps
ADSL 6-8 Mbps
ADSL 1-3 Mbps
HSDPA – 1.884 Mbps
100.00
10.00
01.00
UMTS – 0.384 Mbps
GPRS – 0.075 Mbps
00.10
Edholm’s Law
of wireless speed growth
00.01
00.00
00.00
1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
18
Year of user availability
BUSINESS CHALLENGES
19
• Cell site acquisition
• Device proliferation
• Regulatory constraints
• Technology neutrality
• Service restriction
• Spectrum availability
20
JP Morgan Telco team on the impact of 4G
services on telecom financials:
• Spectrum is significantly more important in a 4G world
than a 2G world, Asian regulators are behind their peers
in the US and EU in making additional spectrum
available.
• Asian operators may see more base station proliferation
than global peers as wireless data usage ramp, unless
additional spectrum is made available.
• Operators basically face a choice - either spend on
spectrum or spend on base stations...the numbers don't
really work out any other way.
21
The Users’ expectation…
..leads to the operator’s challenges
• best price, transparent flat rate
• full Internet
• click-bang responsiveness
• reduce cost per bit
• provide high data rate
• provide low latency
Devices & applications drive
traffic growth
Reduction of network cost is
necessary to remain profitable
Traffic
Revenue
Profitability
Voice dominated
Data dominated
Time
Source: Light Reading (adapted)
Reduce cost per bit and improve end user experience
22
$/bit
Traffic volume
Revenues and Traffic
decoupled
However…
23
Interactive Education
Interactive
Monitoring & Ordering
Shipments Tracking Inventory
Control Fleet Management
Surveillance
Safety Monitoring
Real Estate, Wool,
Grain, Potatoes
Warehouse management
Safety control
Remote Medical
Treatment
Wireless medical services
24
25
26
Webcam
WiMAX
Internet
Smart
Phone
Local Storage
GMC
Storage
Cloud
27
28
29
30
31
WiMAX or LTE
BUILD NOW OR WAIT?
32
FDD LTE
• Early FDD LTE ecosystem mainly building on
 2600
(Europe, APAC)
 2100
(Japan)
 1800
(GSM refarming)
 1700/2100 AWS
(North America)
 1600
(US – wholesale)
 800 digital dividend
(Europe, APAC)
 Upper 700 MHz
(Verizon)
 Lower 700 MHz, B/C
(AT&T)
TD-LTE
• Early TD-LTE ecosystem
 2300
(India, APAC, China)
 2600
(Europe, China, USA)
33
© Nokia Siemens Networks
Company Confidential
Source: Operator, 11.2010
Dongle / Data card
CPE
MiFi (mobile hotspot)
Terminal (Tablet
PC)
Mobile phone
34
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
Single mode
pre-commercial
Multi- mode
precommercial
Single mode
pre-commercial
Multi- mode
precommercial
Single mode
pre-commercial
Single mode
pre-commercial
TD-LTE+GSM/TDSCDMA Demo proto
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2


Multi- mode
commercial
Multi- mode
commercial
Multi- mode
precommercial
Multi- mode
precommercial
Pre-commercial



Multi- mode
commercial
Multi- mode
Dual-mode
commercial
Commercial
Single-mode
Commercial
▪ Simultaneous WiMAX and TD-LTE services during transition phase
- To care for existing WiMAX customers
- To minimize service interruption
- Fast migration to TD-LTE technology
Frequency Migration Plan
Now
16e
16e
16e
N=3
Direct transition
▪ Easy upgrade to TD-LTE by adding TD-LTE channel card
▪ Same cell sites with TD-LTE
Final
LTE
20MHz
N=1 16e
10Mhz
N=1
1) Add TD-LTE channel card
* Reused H/W: DU shelf, RRH,
Backhaul, Antenna, etc.
2) Add optic cable
35
Digital Unit
4 to 5 years is needed for proliferation of ecosystems
180+
to mass deployments
150+
WiMAX
102
100
WCDMA
50
2
0 1
LTE
Year 1
WCDMA
for diversity of devices
120+
WiMAX
100
50
10
4
0
LTE
Year 1
Year 5
36
150
Number of Device Models
Number of Operators
150
Year 5
* Note : WiMAX and WCDMA was deployed since Jun 2006 and Oct 2001, respectively.
(Source : GSA ; WiMAX Forum, Mar 2010 ; Informa, Feb 2010; Samsung estimates)
37
• WiMAX2 (16m) has full backward compatibility with WiMAX (16e)
• Increase of WiMAX2 capable device enables system capacity enhancement
38
SCENARIO (1/2)
a - sector
g - sector
a - sector
g - sector
Configuration change of 16e
& Add 2nd carrier for 16m
#0 #1 #2
b - sector
16e (10MHz, 2T2R)
b - sector
#0 #1 #2
16m (10MHz, 2T2R)
16m MRA
16m MRA
16m MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
Add 3 x 16m channel cards
Current
39
Step-1
SCENARIO (2/2)
a - sector
g - sector
a - sector
g - sector
Configuration change for 16m 20MHz
#0 #1 #2
b - sector
16e (10MHz, 2T2R)
b - sector
16m (10 or 20MHz, 2T2R)
16m MRA
16m MRA
16m MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
16e MRA
Step-1
40
16m MRA
16m MRA
16m MRA
Step-2
#0 #1 #2
Source: UQ Communications, July 2011
41
WiMAX(16e)
by UQ
Communications
DC-HSDPA
by SoftBank
42
FD-LTE
by NTT Docomo
The result of the downlink comparison test is as bellow:
• WiMAX is about 10Mbps,
• LTE is about 6Mbps,
• DC-HSDPA is about 2Mbps
43
• UQ to have 20,000 BTS
•
•
•
•
44
and 2M subs by 2012
KT WiBro expansion
KCC to License 4th
Operator – WiMAX2
UQ and YTL signed
MoA for WiMAX2
cooperation
GMC to provide 70%
coverage and 660,000
subs by end of 2011
Questions?
Wayne.Sun@GlobalMobile.com.tw