USA Update 2014
Current Issues and Challenges in American Politics
Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München
you can download this presentation at www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate
Ups and Downs:
Obama’s Victories and Frustrations
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USA Update 2014
Treehouse of Horror
XIX
The Simpsons, 2008
20th season
This episode was aired on
November 2, 2008 – two
days before the presidential
election between Barack
Obama and John McCain.
Despite the apparent voting
fraud in Springfield, Obama
won the 2008 election by a
large margin.
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USA Update 2014
The Obama Presidency: Success and Failure
in 2008, Obama won the presidency
with promises of “change”, “hope”, and
“yes, we can”
he began with a progressive reform
agenda and even got Congress to pass a
landmark health care reform
however, in 2010 Republicans, energized
by the ultra-conservative Tea Party
movement, won a majority in the House
of Representatives
Congress is now divided between a
Democratic-majority Senate and a
Republican-majority House
Republicans in the House have
effectively blocked nearly all legislation
since early 2011
Americans are deeply divided over the
Obama presidency
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With Republicans in control of the House of
Representatives, Obama does not have much
room to maneuver.
USA Update 2014
The Presidential Election of 2012
in early 2012, Obama’s chances
for re-election did not look
good
however, some factors
improved Obama’s chances:
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recovering economy
the Republican candidate Mitt
Romney turned out to be less
than ideal
Obama’s vastly superior
campaign organization
Obama was re-elected with a
slim, but clear majority
especially women, minorities,
and the young favored Obama
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Mitt Romney greatly hurt his candidacy when
he claimed that 47% of Americans were
“dependent on government” and that it was
not his job “to worry about those people.”
USA Update 2014
Presidential Election of 2012
Obama:
65,899,660 popular votes (51.0%)
332 electoral votes
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Romney:
60,932,152 popular votes (47.2%)
205 electoral votes
USA Update 2014
Election Analysis: Gender
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USA Update 2014
Election Analysis: Race / Ethnicity
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USA Update 2014
Election Analysis: Religion
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Homer Votes in 2012 – Some Explanations
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in several states, Republicans tried to
install voter ID laws in an attempt to
reduce poorer and minority voters
extreme critics of Obamacare said
there would be “death panels”
deciding to let older patients die
“magic underpants” is an unflattering
nickname for Mormon temple
garments, while “going commando”
means not wearing underwear
Romney’s health care reform in
Massachusetts was a role model for
Obamacare
Romney refused to reveal most of his
tax returns during the campaign
Obama accused Romney of
outsourcing jobs to China during his
business career
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USA Update 2014
Homer Votes in 2012
This is an ad for the
Simpsons 24th season, and
also a running gag on the
election joke of 2008.
This segment was aired
again as part of an episode
two days before the
presidential election.
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USA Update 2014
Got Insurance?
The Controversial Politics of Obamacare
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USA Update 2014
The Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”)
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about 15% of Americans have no
health insurance
in early 2010, a still Democratic
Congress passed the ACA, better
known as “Obamacare”
it requires all Americans to buy
commercial, but highly regulated
health insurance and pays
subsidies to those with low
incomes
it also offers states money to
expand Medicaid, the health
insurance program for the poor
conservative critics protest the
cost of Obamacare, the increase in
federal power, and the expansion
of “European style socialism” in
the United States
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The ACA was passed almost exclusively by the
Democratic Party (the donkey), therefore most
Republicans (the elephant) reject the law.
USA Update 2014
The Fight over Medicaid
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another important part of
Obamacare is the expansion of
Medicaid
in 2012, the Supreme Court ruled
that states do not have to
implement the Medicaid
expansion
most Republican stated opted not
to expand Medicaid, even though
federal funds were offered for
90% of the cost
as a result, the poor in many of
the poorest states did not gain
access to health insurance
a few Republican governors have
defied party conservatives and
expanded Medicaid anyway
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Missouri is one of the states opting against
Medicaid expansion
USA Update 2014
The Botched Start of Obamacare
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in October 2013, the federal
website healthcare.gov opened
for business
for weeks, it did not work – which
gave conservatives a great boost
by the end of 2013, the site
worked better, but was still
plagued by problems
some insured people lost their old
insurance because it did not
conform with Obamacare rules –
in violation of an Obama promise
also, fewer young and relatively
healthy people have signed up
than the system needs
by now, 7 million Americans have
signed up for Obamacare via the
website, more than expected
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This is an advertisement for Colorado
Obamacare, aimed at college students.
USA Update 2014
Divided We Stand?
Partisan Division and Fiscal Politics
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USA Update 2014
The Basic Conflict: How Much Federal Government?
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the biggest ideological conflict
in the US is about the amount
of federal power
comparable to the debate
about the EU in Europe
liberals want the federal
government to actively tax and
legislate for social justice, and
expand the social insurance net
conservatives want the federal
government to interfere as
little as possible in individuals’
lives and keep taxes and
federal spending to a minimum
this explains the political
conflict over Obamacare and
federal spending in general
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Ronald Reagan (1981): “Government is not the
solution to our problems; government is the
problem.” This remains the conservative credo.
USA Update 2014
The Republican Party (“GOP”) Today
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like the Democratic Party, the
Republican Party is a diverse
coalition of competing groups, e.g.
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national security hawks vs. deficit
hawks
social conservatives vs. libertarians
hard-core ideologues vs. pragmatic
deal-makers
Republicans are “conservative”,
but they differ on what that
means and how to pursue it
low taxes as common ground
increasingly, the GOP is the party
of native-born, older white voters,
esp. men
in recent years, conflict between
pragmatists and radicals (esp. Tea
Party) has grown much sharper
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What is the face of the Republican party?
Today, most of these former presidents would
hardly recognize their political home.
USA Update 2014
The Tea Party Movement
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grassroots movement uprising of
uncompromisingly conservative
Republicans against GOP
establishment
protest against federal spending,
deficit, taxes: TPM wants a
radically smaller federal
government
often extreme (sometimes racist)
rhetoric, not always rational
primary challenges against
established Republicans: goal is to
transform the Republican party
and rid it of moderates
won several House and a few
Senate seats in 2010, pushed the
Republican Party further to the
right, esp. in the House
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The Tea Party hates Obama, but their main
targets are “establishment” Republicans or Rinos
(“Republican in name only”)
USA Update 2014
Politically Inept, with
Homer Simpson
The Simpsons, 2012
23rd season
Homer becomes a
successful conservative talk
show host and launches the
“gravy boat” movement – a
parody of the Tea Party
Movement.
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USA Update 2014
A Nation Divided?
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much of the partisan division is
due to divisions among the
American people
modern, younger, multi-ethnic,
urban Americans tend to favor
liberalism
traditional, older, white, rural and
suburban Americans tend to favor
conservatism
political division influences (and is
shaped by) choosing where you
live, where you shop, what you
eat, where you send your kids to
school, etc.
for many Americans, the “other”
America is increasingly alien
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recently, conservative secession movements
have sprung up in Northern Colorado and
Western Maryland, aimed at separation from
increasingly liberal, urban parts of the state
USA Update 2014
Deficit Reduction, the Debt Ceiling, and Sequestration
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deficits have been high for years,
they rose dramatically after 2008
Democrats want tax raises for the
wealthy, with few cuts to social
programs
Republicans oppose any tax raises,
insisting on radical cuts to federal
spending, especially social
programs
repeated clashes for years, esp.
over congressionally mandated
debt ceiling
Budget Control Act of 2011 led to
across-the-board spending cuts
(“sequestration”) since 2013 that
both parties did not really want
in 2013, deficit fell to “only” $680
billion or 4.1 % of GDP
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Obama once said he wants to cut the deficit
with “a scalpel, not a machete”. Radical
Republicans seem to have a scythe in mind.
USA Update 2014
Fiscal Crisis: Government Shutdown
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most federal government
spending is mandated by
permanent law, e.g. Social
Security or Medicare
other spending is funded annually
by Congress, e.g. National Parks,
NASA, or the EPA
during the 2013 budget
negotiations, House Republicans
(pressured by Tea Party radicals)
refused to make a deal with the
Senate Democrats
as a result the federal government
was shut down for two weeks
before Republicans backed down
Republicans were strongly
criticized for the shutdown
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Republican Speaker of the House John
Boehner is part of the Republican business
wing, but bowed to Tea Party pressure.
USA Update 2014
We Did Stop
(the government)
Saturday Night Live, 2013
Pop singer Miley Cyrus
appeared on Saturday Night
Live with a parody of her
own song “We Can’t Stop”.
SNL actor Tarim Killam takes
on the role of John
Boehner, while Cyrus plays
Michelle Bachmann, a Tea
Party radical in the House of
Representatives.
In this video, the Republican
Party is … a party!
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USA Update 2014
¿Hablas español?
The Politics of Immigration Reform
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USA Update 2014
Illegal Immigration
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legal immigration (ca. 1 million per
year) is largely undisputed
however, several hundred
thousand immigrants come to the
US illegally each year, mostly from
Mexico and central America
roughly 11.5 million
undocumented immigrants live in
the US
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border enforcement?
legalization/amnesty?
for over 25 years, Congress and
presidents have failed to find a
workable solution
building a fence along the
Mexican border is politically
popular but also expensive and
probably ineffective
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critics of building the border fence ask the
question: why stop with the Mexican border?
USA Update 2014
Coming to Homerica
(“The Simpsons”, 2009)
In this episode, the people
of Ogdenville immigrate to
Springfield when their
barley-based economy
crashes. In Springfield, they
find work as day laborers,
domestic servants and
other low-paid jobs.
In in satirical twist, the
Ogdenvillians are of
Norwegian (not Mexican or
other Hispanic) ancestry.
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USA Update 2014
The Politics of Immigration Reform
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most Hispanic voters support the
Democrats, in part because they
(including Obama) support amnesty
for illegal immigrants
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Republicans also need more Hispanic
votes, but they are divided between
moderates willing to accept amnesty
and radical conservatives who reject
amnesty absolutely
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in August 2013, the Senate passed a
bipartisan immigration reform
compromise bill including both
amnesty and more money for border
enforcement
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however, the more conservative
House of Representatives is unlikely to
pass immigration reform this year
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With their harsh rhetoric against illegal
immigrants, Republicans have built a wall
that has alienated Hispanic voters.
USA Update 2014
Coming to Homerica
(“The Simpsons”, 2009)
In this episode, the people
of Ogdenville immigrate to
Springfield when their
barley-based economy
crashes. In Springfield, they
find work as day laborers,
domestic servants and
other low-paid jobs.
When the wall between
Springfield and Ogdenville is
finally finished, the people
of Springfield realize their
mistake.
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USA Update 2014
Yes We Can, but do we want to?
Obama‘s Foreign Policy
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USA Update 2014
Iraq and Afghanistan
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ending the Iraq War was a central
campaign promise Obama fulfilled
in 2011
on Afghanistan, two positions:
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Joe Biden: focus on terrorists in
Pakistan
Hillary Clinton: stabilize
Afghanistan
in 2009, Clinton’s position
prevailed, leading to a massive
troop surge
however, since 2011/12, Obama
has come around to Biden’s view
and is preparing withdrawal
currently, the big question is
whether the US will leave any
troops in Afghanistan and how
many
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Obama’s decision to shore up US efforts in
Afghanistan met only limited success
USA Update 2014
Obama’s War on Terror
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Obama changed the tactics of the
War on Terror, but not the goal
end to CIA torture but failure to
close Guantanamo prison camp
Obama pursued a more focused
“War on Terror”
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no new invasions of “rogue states”
strong reliance on special forces
and drones
targeted killings of suspected
terrorists leaders
widening operations against Al
Quaeda to Yemen and North Africa
more effective against terrorists,
but esp. targeted drone killings
are extremely controversial
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Obama may very well be remembered as the
“drone president”
USA Update 2014
The Syrian Crisis
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Obama wants no new war in the
Middle East – US population is war
weary
however, suffering in Syria has made
the conflict an international priority
some Republicans like McCain call for
US intervention, but other
Republicans and the Democratic left
wing oppose any involvement
Cold War style conflict with Russia
increasing radicalization of Syrian
opposition
Obama painted himself into a corner
by threatening Assad over the use of
chemical weapons
deal on dismantling Syria’s chemical
weapons saved face for US and Russia,
but will likely keep Assad in power
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For Obama, Syria is a no-win situation.
USA Update 2014
The Ukraine Crisis
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until recently, US and EU policy on
Ukraine was often at odds with one
another
return of cold war style conflict
apparently surprised both US and EU
US supports more stringent sanctions
against Russia, but has also deferred
to European initiative
Obama has identified Russia as a
“regional power” that is not a major
threat to the US
newly aggressive Russian foreign
policy will strengthen (East) European
reliance on NATO, and especially US
power
US will protect NATO members, but
also call for greater military spending
in Europe
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Does the Ukraine crisis mean the return of
the Cold War?
USA Update 2014
Obama’s Retrenchment Strategy
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Obama’s main foreign policy
strategy is to limit military
involvement, esp. in the Middle
East
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however, Obama is by no means a
pacifist
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ending Iraq War
withdrawing from Afghanistan
no intervention in Syria
nuclear negotiations with Iran
quality over quantity in the military
letting EU lead on Ukraine crisis
anti-terrorism ops (drones, etc.)
expansion of military bases in the
Pacific region
Middle East reduction is also tied
to policy of energy independence
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While Obama’s foreign policy is hardly
pacifist, he seems committed not to involve
the US in any new wars.
USA Update 2014
The Diplomatic Fallout of Edward Snowden
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Edward Snowden’s
“revelations” have created a
privacy debate in the US, but it
is mostly about surveillance
against Americans, not
foreigners
little sympathy for European
(mostly German) protests –
after all, European intelligence
services aided US efforts
Merkel’s phone affair is
diplomatically embarrassing,
but substantially unsurprising
US has never claimed not to
spy on allies
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The NSA wiretapping of Angela Merkel’s
phone has created some embarrassment, a
lot of amusement, and little debate in the US.
USA Update 2014
Let Go, Let Gov
South Park, 2013
In this episode, Eric
Cartman infiltrates the NSA
only to discover they don’t
care about him, despite the
fact that he constantly blogs
and twitters about NSA
spying. Ironically, Cartman
signed up for a new
microblogging system called
“Shitter” that publishes
everything he thinks to the
world.
And then, he finds out the
horrible truth…
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USA Update 2014
The Permanent Campaign
The Elections of 2014 and 2016
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USA Update 2014
Congressional Elections in 2014
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2014 elections could potentially break
congressional deadlock
however, Democrats face many
problems:
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Obama’s approval rating is low
midterm elections are almost always
bad for the presidential party
Republican base has higher turnout in
midterm elections
many House Republicans have safely
conservative districts
Senate elections include many
vulnerable Democrats
a Democratic victory is very unlikely
Republicans have about a 50/50
chance of winning the Senate
most likely, divided Congress and
deadlock will continue
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Republican voters are older and often more
committed to vote in midterm elections.
USA Update 2014
The Presidential Election of 2016: Democrats
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earlier than ever, talk of 2016 is
in full swing
Obama cannot run for reelection – “lame duck”
For Democrats, the obvious
front-runner is Hillary Clinton.
Potential competition or
replacements:
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Joe Biden
various (former) governors:
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Andrew Cuomo (NY)
Martin O’Malley (MD)
Mark Warner (VA)
Elizabeth Warren (sen. MA) as
the left-wing candidate
most seem to expect a Hillary Clinton
candidacy, but what if she does not run?
USA Update 2014
The Presidential Election of 2016: Republicans
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For Republicans, it’s all
about the establishment vs.
radical split
Establishment
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Radicals
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Chris Christie (gov. NJ)
Jeb Bush (former gov. FL)
Paul Ryan (Romney’s VP)
Rand Paul (sen. KY)
Ted Cruz (sen. TX)
Unclear
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Marco Rubio (sen. FL)
Scott Walker (gov. WI)
Stark vs. Lannister in 2016?
or rather Clinton vs. Bush?
USA Update 2014
The Kid is All Right
The Simpsons, 2013
25th season
Lisa befriends a new
student named Isabel
Gutierrez. She is thrilled
until Isabel reveals that she
is a Republican – and a
radical conservative to
boot.
Since the Republican Party
is desperate to attract
Hispanic voters, they
scheme to support Isabel
for class president against
Lisa.
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USA Update 2014
Steven Spielberg’s
“Obama”
2013 White House
Correspondents' Dinner
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USA Update 2014
Thank You for Your Attention!
you can download this presentation at
www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate
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USA Update 2014