Future Work Skills
2020
Institute for the Future for
the University of Phoenix Research Institute
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor, Palo Alto, CA
94301 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org
aboutthe…
i n s t i t u t e f o r t h e fu t ur e
TheInstitutefortheFuture(IFTF)isanindependent,nonprofitstrategic
researchgroupwithmorethan40yearsofforecastingexperience.The
coreofourworkisidentifyingemergingtrendsanddiscontinuitiesthat
willtransformglobalsocietyandtheglobalmarketplace.Weprovideour
memberswithinsightsintobusinessstrategy,designprocess,innovation,andsocialdilemmas.Ourresearchspansabroadterritoryofdeeply
transformativetrends,fromhealthandhealthcaretotechnology,the
workplace,andhumanidentity.TheInstitutefortheFutureislocatedin
PaloAlto,California.
U n i v e rsi t y o f P h o e n i x R e s e arc h I n s t i t u t e
TheUniversityofPhoenixResearchInstituteconductsscholarly
researchonworkinglearners,highereducation,andindustrytoimprove
educationaloutcomesandpromoteamorepreparedworkforce.
TheUniversityofPhoenixResearchInstitutesponsoredthispieceof
researchtoincreaseunderstandingoftheskillsworkerswillneedover
thenextdecadeinatechnologicallyadvancedandchangingworld.
Credits:
AnnaDavies,DevinFidler,MarinaGorbis
JeanHagan
LisaMumbach
KarinLubeck,JodyRadzik
Institute
1 02©
fortheFutureforUniversityofPhoenixResearchInstitute.Allrightsreserved.
Reproductionprohibitedwithoutwrittenpermission.SR-A2831
Introduction
Methodology
SixDriversofChange
FutureWorkSkillsMap
TenSkillsfortheFutureWorkforce
Implications
i n t r o d uc t i o n
Inthe1990s,IBM’sDeepBluebeatgrandmasterGaryKasparovinchess;todayIBM’s
WatsonsupercomputerisbeatingcontestantsonJeopardy.Adecadeago,workers
worriedaboutjobsbeingoutsourcedoverseas;todaycompaniessuchasODeskand
LiveOpscanassembleteams“inthecloud”todosales,customersupport,andmany
othertasks.Fiveyearsago,itwouldhavetakenyearsforNASAtotagmillionsofphoto
graphstakenbyitstelescope,butwiththepowerofitscollaborativeplatforms,thetask
canbeaccomplishedinafewmonthswiththehelpofthousandsofhumanvolunteers.
Globalconnectivity,smartmachines,andnewmediaarejustsomeofthedrivers
reshapinghowwethinkaboutwork,whatconstituteswork,andtheskillswewillneed
tobeproductivecontributorsinthefuture.
Thisreportanalyzeskeydriversthatwillreshapethelandscapeofworkandidentifies
keyworkskillsneededinthenext10years.Itdoesnotconsiderwhatwillbethejobsof
thefuture.Manystudieshavetriedtopredictspecificjobcategoriesandlaborrequirements.Consistentlyovertheyears,however,ithasbeenshownthatsuchpredictions
aredifficultandmanyofthepastpredictionshavebeenprovenwrong.Ratherthan
focusingonfuturejobs,thisreportlooksatfutureworkskills—proficienciesandabilities
requiredacrossdifferentjobsandworksettings.
M ETHODO LO G Y
Overitshistory,theInstitutefortheFuture(IFTF)hasbeenaleaderinadvancingforesightmethodolo
theDelphitechnique,amethodofaggregatingexpertopinionstodevelopplausibleforesight,tointeg
ethnographicmethodsintothedisciplineofforecasting,andrecentlytousinggamingplatformstocr
foresights.Wehaveusedthesemethodologieswithanillustriousrosteroforganizations(fromFortune
companiestogovernmentsandfoundations(toaddressissuesasdiverseasfuturescienceandtechn
futureoforganizations,andthefutureofeducation.
IFTFusesforesightasastartingpointforaprocesswecall
ForesighttoInsighttoAction,aprocessthatenablespeople
totakefuturevisionsandconvertthemintomeaningful
in
sightsandactionstheycantaketobesuccessfulinthefuture.
Manythankstoeachofourworkshopparticipants:
•
RightManagement
•
UniversityofPhoenixResearchInstitute
Inwritingthisreport,wedrewonIFTF’sfoundational
• IFTF
forecastsinareasasdiverseaseducation,technology,
demographics,work,andhealth,aswellasourannual
• IFTF
Ten-YearForecast.TheTen-YearForecastisdeveloped
• ElectronicArts
usingIFTF’ssignalsmethodology—anextensionofdecadesofpracticeaggregatingdata,expertopinion,and
• IFTF
trendsresearchtounderstandpatternsofchange.Asignal
• IFTFAffiliate
istypicallyasmallorlocalinnovationordisruptionthat
hasthepotentialtogrowinscaleandgeographicdistribu• IBM
tion.Asignalcanbeanewproduct,anewpractice,anew
• UniversityofPhoenixResearchInstitute
marketstrategy,anewpolicy,ornewtechnology.Inshort,it
issomethingthatcatchesourattentionatonescaleandin
• IFTF
onelocaleandpointstolargerimplicationsforotherlocales
• MediaXatStanfordUniversity
orevenglobally.Signalsareusefulforpeoplewhoaretryingtoanticipateahighlyuncertainfuture,sincetheytend
• ApolloGroup
tocaptureemergentphenomenonsoonerthantraditional
• UniversityofPhoenix
socialsciencemethods.
•
Weenrichedandvettedthisresearchatanexpertworkshop
heldatourheadquartersinPaloAlto,wherewebrought
togetherexpertsinadiverserangeofdisciplinesand
•
professionalbackgrounds,engagingtheminbrainstorming
•
exercisestoidentifykeydriversofchangeandhowthese
willshapeworkskillrequirements.Finally,weanalyzedand
filteredallofthisdatainordertoidentifythesixkeydrivers
andtenskillsareasthatwillbemostrelevanttotheworkforceofthefuture.
IFTF
Procter&Gamble
TheWaltDisneyCompany
UniversityofPhoenixResearchInstitute
S I X D R I VE R S O F C H A N G E
Webegineveryforesightexercisewiththinkingaboutdrivers(bigdisruptiveshiftsthatarelike
reshapethefuturelandscape.Althougheachdriverinitselfisimportantwhenthinkingaboutt
itisaconfluenceofseveraldriversworkingtogetherthatproducestruedisruptions.Wechoset
thatemergedfromourresearchasthemostimportantandrelevanttofutureworkskills.
1
extreme
longevity:
Increasingglobal
lifespanschangethe
natureofcareers
andlearning
2
rise of
smart machines
and systems:
Workplaceautomation
nudgeshuman
workersoutofrote,
repetitivetasks
Weareonthecuspofamajortransformationinour
Itisestimatedthatby205,thenumberofAmericansover
relationshipswithourtools.Overthenextdecade,new
60willincreaseby70%.Overthenextdecadewewillsee
thechallengeofanagingpopulationcometothefore.New smartmachineswillenteroffices,factories,andhomes
innumberswehaveneverseenbefore.Theywillbecome
perceptionsofwhatitmeanstoage,aswellastheemergtoproduction,teaching,combat,medicine,security,
ingpossibilitiesforrealistic,healthylife-extension,willintegral
begin
andvirtuallyeverydomainofourlives.Asthesemachines
takehold.
replacehumansinsometasks,andaugmenttheminothers,
Individualswillneedtorearrangetheirapproachtotheirtheirlargestimpactmaybelessobvious:theirverypresence
amonguswillforceustoconfrontimportantquestions.
careers,familylife,andeducationtoaccommodatethis
de
mographicshift.Increasingly,peoplewillworklongpast65 Whatarehumansuniquelygoodat?Whatisourcomparainordertohaveadequateresourcesforretirement.Multiple tiveadvantage?Andwhatisourplacealongsidethese
careerswillbecommonplaceandlifelonglearningtopre- machines?Wewillhavetorethinkthecontentofourwork
pareforoccupationalchangewillseemajorgrowth.Totake andourworkprocessesinresponse.
advantageofthiswell-experiencedandstillvitalworkforce,
Insomeareas,anewgenerationofautomatedsystemswill
organizationswillhavetorethinkthetraditionalcareerpaths
replacehumans,freeingusuptodothethingswearegood
inorganizations,creatingmorediversityandflexibility.
atandactuallyenjoy.Inotherdomains,themachineswill
Agingindividualswillincreasinglydemandopportunities, becomeourcollaborators,augmentingourownskillsand
abilities.Smartmachineswillalsoestablishnewexpecta
products,andmedicalservicestoaccommodatemore
tionsandstandardsofperformance.Ofcourse,some
rou
healthyandactivesenioryears.Aswemovetowardtoa
tinejobswillbetakenoverbymachines—thishasalready
worldofhealthierlifestylesandholisticapproachestowhat
happenedandwillcontinue.Buttherealpowerinrobotics
weeat,howwework,andwherewelive,muchofdaily
technologiesliesintheirabilitytoaugmentandextend
life—andtheglobaleconomyasawhole—willbeviewed
ourowncapabilities.Wewillbeenteringintoanewkind
throughthelensofhealth.
ofpartnershipwithmachinesthatwillbuildonourmutual
strengths,resultinginanewlevelofhuman-machine
- col
laborationandcodependence.
S I X D R I VE R S O F C H A N G E
3
computational
world
Massiveincreasesin
sensorsandprocessing
powermaketheworld
aprogrammable
system
4
new media
ecology
Newcommunication
toolsrequirenew
medialiteracies
beyondtext
Thediffusionofsensors,communications,andprocessing Newmultimediatechnologiesarebringingabouta
powerintoeverydayobjectsandenvironmentswillunleash transformationinthewaywecommunicate.Astechnologies
anunprecedentedtorrentofdataandtheopportunitytosee forvideoproduction,digitalanimation,augmentedreality,
patternsanddesignsystemsonascaleneverbeforepossi- gaming,andmediaediting,becomeevermoresophisticated
andwidespread,anewecosystemwilltakeshapearound
ble.Everyobject,everyinteraction,everythingwecomeinto
theseareas.Weareliterallydevelopinganewvernacular,a
contactwithwillbeconvertedintodata.Oncewedecode
newlanguage,forcommunication.
theworldaroundusandstartseeingitthroughthelensof
data,wewillincreasinglyfocusonmanipulatingthedatato
Already,thetext-basedInternetistransformingtoprivilege
achievedesiredoutcomes.Thuswewillusherinaneraof
“everythingisprogrammable”—aneraofthinkingaboutthe video,animation,andothermorevisualcommunication
media.Atthesametime,virtualnetworksarebeinginteworldincomputational,programmable,designableterms.
gratedmoreandmoreseamlesslyintoourenvironmentand
lives,channelingnewmediaintoourdailyexperience.The
Thecollectionofenormousquantitiesofdatawillenable
millionsofusersgeneratingandviewingthismultimedia
modelingofsocialsystemsatextremescales,bothmicroand
macro,helpinguncovernewpatternsandrelationshipsthat contentfromtheirlaptopsandmobiledevicesareexerting
enormousinfluenceonculture.
werepreviouslyinvisible.Agencieswillincreasinglymodel
macro-levelphenomenasuchasglobalpandemicstostop
theirspreadacrosstheglobe.Atamicrolevel,individualswill Newmediaisplacingnewdemandsonattentionand
cognition.Itisenablingnewplatformsforcreatingonline
beabletosimulatethingssuchastheirroutetotheofficeto
avoidtrafficcongestionbasedonreal-timetrafficdata.Micro- identitywhileatthesametimerequiringpeopletoengage
inactivitiessuchasonlinepersonalreputationandidentity
andmacro-scalemodelswillmeshtocreatemodelsthatare
management.Itisenablingnewwaysforgroupstocome
unprecedentedintheircomplexityandcompleteness.
togetherandcollaborate,bringinginnewlevelsoftransparencytoourworkandpersonallives.Atthesametime,
Asaresult,whetheritisrunningabusinessormanaging
individualhealth,ourworkandpersonalliveswillincreas- oursensibilitytowardrealityandtruthislikelytoberadically
inglydemandabilitiestointeractwithdata,seepatternsin alteredbythenewmediaecology.Wemustlearnto
approachcontentwithmoreskepticismandtherealization
data,makedata-baseddecisions,andusedatatodesign
thatwhatyouseetodaymaybedifferenttomorrow.Notonly
fordesiredoutcomes.
arewegoingtohavemultipleinterpretationsofrecorded
events,butwithubiquitouscaptureandsurveillance,events
willbeseenfrommultipleanglesandperspectives,each
possiblytellingadifferentstoryofindividualevents.
5
superstructed
organizations
Socialtechnologies
drivenewformsof
productionandvalue
creation
6
globally
connected world
Increasedglobalinterconnectivityputsdiversityand
adaptabilityatthecenter
oforganizational
operations
Atitsmostbasiclevel,globalizationisthelong-termtrend
Newtechnologiesandsocialmediaplatformsaredrivingan
unprecedentedreorganizationofhowweproduceandcre- towardgreaterexchangesandintegrationacrossgeograph
borders.Inourhighlygloballyconnectedandinterdepen
atevalue.Amplifiedbyanewlevelofcollectiveintelligence
andtappingresourcesembeddedinsocialconnectionswith dentworld,theUnitedStatesandEuropenolongerholda
mono-polyonjobcreation,innovation,andpoliticalpower.
multitudesofothers,wecannowachievethekindofscale
andreachpreviouslyattainableonlybyverylargeorganiza- Organizationsfromresource-andinfrastructure-constraine
- areinn
tions.Inotherwords,wecandothingsoutsideoftraditional marketsindevelopingcountrieslikeIndiaandChina
vatingatafasterpacethanthosefromdevelopedcountries
organizationalboundaries.
insomeareas,suchasmobiletechnologies.Infact,alackof
legacyinfrastructureiscombiningwithrapidlygrowing
mar
To“superstruct”meanstocreatestructuresthatgobeyond
thebasicformsandprocesseswithwhichwearefamiliar.It ketstofuelhigherratesofgrowthindevelopingcountries.
meanstocollaborateandplayatextremescales,fromthe
Fordecades,mostmultinationalcompanieshaveusedtheir
microtothemassive.Learningtousenewsocialtoolsto
overseassubsidiariesassalesandtechnicalsupportchanwork,toinvent,andtogovernatthesescalesiswhatthe
nelsfortheheadquarters.Inthelasttenyears,overseas
nextfewdecadesareallabout.
companies,particularlyITones,outsourcedeverythingfrom
customerservicestosoftwaredevelopment.Themodel,
Ourtoolsandtechnologiesshapethekindsofsocial,
however,hasstayedthesame:innovationanddesignhave
economic,andpoliticalorganizationsweinhabit.Many
beentheprerogativeofR&Dlabsindevelopedcountries.
organizationswearefamiliarwithtoday,includingeducaAsmarketsinChina,India,andotherdevelopingcountries
tionalandcorporateones,areproductsofcenturies-old
grow,itisincreasinglydifficultfortheheadquarterstodescientificknowledgeandtechnologies.Todayweseethis
velopproductsthatcansuittheneedsofawholedifferent
organizationallandscapebeingdisrupted.Inhealth,organicategoryofconsumers.
zationssuchasCuretogetherandPatientsLikeMeareallowingpeopletoaggregatetheirpersonalhealthinformationto
Presenceinareaswherenewcompetitorsarepoppingup
allowforclinicaltrialsandemergenceofexpertiseoutside
oftraditionallabsanddoctors’offices.Sciencegames,from iscriticaltosurvival,butitisnotenough.Thekeyisnotjust
FoldittoGalaxyZoo,areengagingthousandsofpeopleto toemploypeopleintheselocalesbutalsotoeffectivelyinsolveproblemsnosingleorganizationhadtheresourcesto tegratetheselocalemployeesandlocalbusinessprocesses
dobefore.Openeducationplatformsareincreasinglymak- intotheinfrastructureofglobalorganizationsinorderto
remaincompetitive.
ingcontentavailabletoanyonewhowantstolearn.
Anewgenerationoforganizationalconceptsandworkskills
iscomingnotfromtraditionalmanagement/organizational
theoriesbutfromfieldssuchasgamedesign,neuroscience,andhappinesspsychology.Thesefieldswilldrivethe
creationofnewtrainingparadigmsandtools.
FUTURE WORK SKILLS 2020
Whatdothesesixdisruptiveforcesmeanfortheworkersofthenext
decade?Wehaveidentifiedtenskillsthatwebelievewillbecritical
forsuccessintheworkforce.
extreme Whileallsixdriversareimportantinshapingthelandscapeinwhichlongevity
eachskillemerges,thecolor-codingandplacementhereindicate
Increasing global lifespans whichdrivershaveparticularrelevancetothedevelopmentofeach
change the nature of oftheskills.
careers and learning
Transdisciplinarity
Drivers—disruptiveshiftsthat
willreshapetheworkforce
landscape
Keyskillneededinthe
futureworkforce
SenseMaking Social
Intelligence rise of smart
machines and systems
Workplace robotics nudge human workers out of rote, repetitive tasks
Novel
and Adaptive
Thinking
new media
ecology
New communication tools
require new media liter
cies beyond text
computational
world
Social technologies drive new forms of production and value creation
Massive increase in sensors and processing power make the world a programmable system
Design
Mindset
y
s ra-
superstructed
organizations
Virtual
Collaboration
New Media
Literacy Cross
Cultural
Competency
Cognitive
Load
Management
Computational
Thinking globally- connected world
Increased global interconnectivity puts diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational
operations
© 2011 Institute for the Future for University of Phoenix Research Institute. All rights reserved.
TEN S K I L L S
F O R THE F U T U R E W O R K F O R C E
1
2
S e n s e - maki n g
ability to determine the deeper meaning
or significance of what is being expressed
S o cial i n t e llig e n c e
ability to connect to others in a deep and
direct way, to sense and stimulate reactions and
desired interactions
Assmartmachinestakeoverrote,routinemanufacturing
andservicesjobs,therewillbeanincreasingdemandforthe Whileweareseeingearlyprototypesof“social”and
kindsofskillsmachinesarenotgoodat.Thesearehigher- “emotional”robotsinvariousresearchlabstoday,therange
levelthinkingskillsthatcannotbecodified.Wecallthese
ofsocialskillsandemotionsthattheycandisplayisvery
sense-makingskills,skillsthathelpuscreateuniqueinsightslimited.Feelingisjustascomplicatedassense-making,
criticaltodecisionmaking.
ifnotmoreso,andjustasthemachineswearebuilding
arenotsense-makingmachines,theemotionalandsocial
robotswearebuildingarenotfeelingmachines.
WhenIBM’ssupercomputer,DeepBlue,defeatedchess
grandmasterGaryKasparov,manytookthisofasignofits
superiorthinkingskills.ButDeepBluehadwonwithbrute
Sociallyintelligentemployeesareabletoquicklyassessthe
number-crunchingforceits
( abilitytoevaluatemillionsofposs- emotionsofthosearoundthemandadapttheirwords,tone
iblemovespersecond)not
,
byapplyingthekindofhuman
andgesturesaccordingly.Thishasalwaysbeenakeyskillfor
intelligencethathelpsustoliveourlives.Acomputermaybe
workerswhoneedtocollaborateandbuildrelationshipsof
abletobeatahumaninagameofchessorJeopardybysheer
trust,butitisevenmoreimportantaswearecalledontocollforceofitscomputationalabilities,butifyouaskitwhether
aboratewithlargergroupsofpeopleindifferentsettings.Our
itwantstoplaypool,itwon’tbeabletotellwhetheryouare
emotionalityandsocialIQdevelopedovermillenniaofliving
talkingaboutswimming,financialportfolios,orbilliards.
ingroupswillcontinuebeoneofthevitalassetsthatgive
- hu
manworkersacomparativeadvantageovermachines.
AscomputingpioneerJaronLanierpointsout,despite
importantadvancesinArtificialIntelligence(AI)researchitis
stillthecasethat,“ifweaskwhatthinkingis,sothatwecan
thenaskhowtofosterit,weencounteranastonishingand
1
terrifyinganswer:wedon’tknow.
” renegotiatethe
Aswe
human/machinedivisionoflaborinthenextdecade,criticalthinkingorsense-makingwillemergeasaskillworkers
increasinglyneedtocapitalizeon.
http://robotic.media.mit.edu
http://www-943.ibm.com/
innovation/us/watson/
•
extremelongevity
•
newmediaecology
•
3
proficiency at thinking and coming up
with solutions and responses beyond that which is rote
or rule-based
•
globallyconnectedworld
riseofsmartmachinesandsystems superstructedorganizations
4
N o v e l & a d ap t i v e t h i n ki n g
computationalworld
•
•
C r o ss - cult ural co mp e t e n c y
ability to operate in different cultural settings
Inatrulygloballyconnectedworld,aworker’sskillsetcould
seethempostedinanynumberoflocations—theyneedto
MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyProfessorDavid
beabletooperateinwhateverenvironmenttheyfindthemAutorhastrackedthepolarizationofjobsintheUnited
selves.Thisdemandsspecificcontent,suchaslinguistic
Statesoverthelastthreedecades.Hefindsthatjobopskills,butalsoadaptabilitytochangingcircumstancesand
portunitiesaredeclininginmiddle-skillwhite-collarand anabilitytosenseandrespondtonewcontexts.
blue-collarjobs,largelyduetoacombinationoftheautoma2
tionofroutinework,andglobaloffshoring.
Cross-culturalcompetencywillbecomeanimportantskill
Conversely,job
opportunitiesareincreasinglyconcentratedinbothhigh- forallworkers,notjustthosewhohavetooperateindiverse
skill,high-wageprofessional,technicalandmanagement geographicalenvironments.Organizationsincreasinglys
diversityasadriverofinnovation.Researchnowtellsus
occupationsandinlow-skill,low-wageoccupationssuchas
foodserviceandpersonalcare.Jobsatthehigh-skillendin- thatwhatmakesagrouptrulyintelligentandinnovativeis
thecombinationofdifferentages,skills,disciplines,and
volveabstracttasks,andatthelow-skillend,manualtasks.
workingandthinkingstylesthatmembersbringtothetable.
ScottE.Page,professoranddirectoroftheCenterofthe
Whatbothofthesecategoriesoftaskshaveincommon
StudyofComplexSystemsattheUniversityofMichigan
isthattheyrequirewhatAutorterms“situationaladapthasdemonstratedthatgroupsdisplayingarange
- ofper
ability”—theabilitytorespondtouniqueunexpected
spectivesandskilllevelsoutperformlike-mindedexperts.
circumstancesofthemoment.Tasksasdifferentaswriting
Heconcludesthat“progressdependsasmuchonourcolaconvincinglegalargument,orcreatinganewdishoutof
3
lectivedifferencesasitdoesonourindividualIQscores.
”
setingredientsbothrequirenovelthinkingandadaptability.
Theseskillswillbeatapremiuminthenextdecade,particularlyasautomationandoffshoringcontinue.
Diversitywillthereforebecomeacorecompetencyfor
organizationsoverthenextdecade.Successfulemployees
withinthesediverseteamsneedtobeabletoidentifyand
communicatepointsofconnection(sharedgoals,priorities
P erc entage poi
nt change in empl
oyme nt b y oc cupation, 1979–20
9
values)thattranscendtheirdifferencesandenablethemto
Percent
buildrelationshipsandtoworktogethereffectively.
60
50
1979–1989
1999–207
1989–1999
207–209
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
http://press.princeton.edu
-30
Managers Professionals
Technicians
Sales
Office and Production, Operators, Protective
admin craft, and and laborers services repair Food prep, Personal cleaning care and
services
DavidAutor,The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the US Labor Market. Centerfor
AmericanProgressandTheHamiltonProject,April201
TEN S K I L L S
F O R THE F U T U R E W O R K F O R C E
5
Co mpu tat i o n al t h i n ki n g
ability to translate vast amounts of data into
abstract concepts and to understand data-based reasoning
6
N e w - m e d ia li t e rac y
ability to critically assess and develop content
that uses new media forms, and to leverage these media for
persuasive communication
Astheamountofdatathatwehaveatourdisposalincreases
exponentially,manymoreroleswillrequirecomputational
Theexplosioninuser-generatedmediaincludingthevideos,
thinkingskillsinordertomakesenseofthisinformation.
Nov
blogs,andpodcaststhatnowdominateoursociallives,will
ice-friendlyprogramminglanguagesandtechnologiesthatbefullyfeltinworkplacesinthenextdecade.Communica
teachthefundamentalsofprogrammingvirtualandphysicaltiontoolsthatbreakawayfromthestaticslideapproachof
worldswillenableustomanipulateourenvironmentsand
en
programssuchasPowerPointwillbecomecommonplace,
hanceourinteractions.Theuseofsimulationswillbecomea
andwiththemexpectationsofworkerabilitytoproduce
coreexpertiseastheybegintofeatureregularlyindiscourse contentusingthesenewformswillrisedramatically.
anddecision-making.HRdepartmentsthatcurrentlyvalue
applicantswhoarefamiliarwithbasicapplications,suchasThenextgenerationofworkerswillneedtobecomefluent
theMicrosoftOfficesuite,willshifttheirexpectations,seekinginformssuchasvideo,abletocritically“read”andassess
outresumesthatincludestatisticalanalysisandquantitative theminthesamewaythattheycurrentlyassessapaperor
reasoningskills.
presentation.Theywillalsoneedtobecomfortablecreating
andpresentingtheirownvisualinformation.Knowledgeof
Inadditiontodevelopingcomputationalthinkingskills, fontsandlayoutswasoncerestrictedtoasmallsetofprint
workerswillneedtobeawareofitslimitations.Thisrequires designersandtypesetters,untilwordprocessingprograms
anunderstandingthatmodelsareonlyasgoodasthedata broughtthiswithinthereachofeverydayofficeworkers.
Similarly,user-friendlyproductioneditingtoolswillmake
feedingthem—eventhebestmodelsareapproximations
ofrealityandnotrealityitself.Andsecond,workersmust
videolanguage—conceptssuchasframe,depthoffield
etc—partofthecommonvernacular.
remainabletoactintheabsenceofdataandnotbecome
paralyzedwhenlackinganalgorithmforeverysystemto
guidedecisionmaking.
Asimmersiveandvisuallystimulatingpresentationof
informationbecomesthenorm,workerswillneedmoresophisticatedskillstousethesetoolstoengageandpersuade
theiraudiences.
http://scratch.mit.edu
http://socialmediaclassroom.
com
extremelongevity
•
newmediaecology
•
•
7
Tra n s d iscipli n ari t y
literacy in and ability to understand concepts
across multiple disciplines
computationalworld
•
globallyconnectedworld
•
•
riseofsmartmachinesandsystems superstructedorganizations
8
D e sig n mi n d s e t
ability to represent and develop tasks
and work processes for desired outcomes
Manyoftoday’sglobalproblemsarejusttoocomplextobe
Thesensors,communicationtoolsandprocessingpowerof
solvedbyonespecializeddiscipline(thinkglobalwarmingor
thecomputationalworldwillbringwiththemnewopportuni
overpopulation).Thesemultifacetedproblemsrequiretrans- tiestotakeadesignapproachtoourwork.Wewillbeable
disciplinarysolutions.Whilethroughoutthe20thcentury,
toplanourenvironmentssothattheyareconducivetothe
ever-greaterspecializationwasencouraged,thenext
- cen
outcomesthatwearemostinterestedin.Discoveriesfrom
turywillseetransdisciplinaryapproachestakecenterstage.
neurosciencearehighlightinghowprofoundlyourphysica
Wearealreadyseeingthisintheemergenceofnewareasof environmentsshapecognition.AsFredGage,aneurobiostudy,suchasnanotechnology,whichblendsmolecularbilogistwhostudiesanddesignsenvironmentsforneuroology,biochemistry,proteinchemistry,andotherspecialties. genesis(thecreationofnewneurons),argues,“changethe
5
environment,changethebrain,changethebehavior.
”
Thisshifthasmajorimplicationsfortheskillsetthat
knowledgeworkerswillneedtobringtoorganizations.
Onerecentstudyfoundthatceilingheighthasaconsistent
6
AccordingtoHowardRheingold,aprominentforecasterand impactonthenatureofparticipants’thinking.
Participants
author,“transdisciplinaritygoesbeyondbringingtogether inthestudywereaskedtoratetheircurrentbodystateor
researchersfromdifferentdisciplinestowork
inmultidisfeeling.Thosewhowereintheroomwithhigherceilingsreciplinaryteams.Itmeanseducatingresearcherswhocan
spondedmorefavorablytowordsassociatedwithfreedom,
speaklanguagesofmultipledisciplines—biologistswhohave
suchas“unrestricted”or“open”.Thoseinthelower-ceiling
understandingofmathematics,mathematicianswhounder
roomtendedtodescribethemselveswithwordsassociated
standbiology.4 ”
withconfinement.Thisimpactonmoodwasdirectlytransferredtomentalprocesses;thoseinthehigh-ceilinggroup
weremoreeffectiveatrelationalthinking,creatingconnecTheidealworkerofthenextdecadeis“T-shaped”—they
tionsandthefreerecalloffacts.
bringdeepunderstandingofatleastonefield,buthavethe
capacitytoconverseinthelanguageofabroaderrangeof
disciplines.Thisrequiresasenseofcuriosityand- awilling Workersofthefuturewillneedtobecomeadeptat- rec
ognizingthekindofthinkingthatdifferenttasksrequir
nesstogoonlearningfarbeyondtheyearsofformaleducation.Asextendedlifespanspromotemultiplecareersand andmakingadjustmentstotheirworkenvironmentsthat
exposuretomoreindustriesanddisciplines,itwillbe- particu enhancetheirabilitytoaccomplishthesetasks.
larlyimportantforworkerstodevelopthisT-shapedquality.
http://scienceblogs.com/mixingmemory/207/5does_ceiling_height_affect_the.php
http://socialmovement.org
TEN S K I L L S
F O R THE F U T U R E W O R K F O R C E
9
Co g n i t i v e lo a d ma n ag e m e n t
ability to discriminate and filter information for
importance, and to understand how to maximize cognitive
functioning using a variety of tools and techniques
10
Vir t ual co lla b o rat i o n
ability to work productively, drive
engagement, and demonstrate presence as a member
of a virtual team.
AworldrichininformationstreamsinmultipleformatsandConnectivetechnologiesmakeiteasierthanevertowork,share
frommultipledevicesbringstheissueofcognitiveoverload ideasandbeproductivedespitephysicalseparation.But
- thevir
tothefore.Organizationsandworkerswillonlybeableto
tualworkenvironmentalsodemandsanewsetofcompetencies.
turnthemassiveinfluxofdataintoanadvantageiftheycan
learntoeffectivelyfilterandfocusonwhatisimportant.
Asaleaderofavirtualteam,individualsneedtodevelop
strategiesforengagingandmotivatingadispersedgroup.
Thenextgenerationofworkerswillhavetodeveloptheirown Wearelearningthattechniquesborrowedfromgamingare
techniquesfortacklingtheproblemofcognitiveoverload.For
extremelyeffectiveinengaginglargevirtualcommunities.
example,thepracticeofsocialfiltering—ranking,tagging, Ensuringthatcollaborativeplatformsincludetypicalgaming
oraddingothermetadatatocontenthelpshigher-qualityor featuressuchasimmediatefeedback,clearobjectivesanda
morerelevantinformationtoriseabovethe“noise.”
stagedseriesofchallengescansignificantlydrive- participa
tionandmotivation.
Workerswillalsoneedtobecomeadeptatutilizingnew
toolstohelpthemdealwiththeinformationonslaught.
Membersofvirtualteamsalsoneedtobecomeadeptat
ResearchersatTuftsUniversityhavewiredstockbrofindingenvironmentsthatpromoteproductivityandwellkers—whoareconstantlymonitoringstreamsoffinancial
being.Acommunitythatoffers“ambientsociability”can
data,andneedtorecognizemajorchangeswithoutbehelpovercomeisolationthatcomesfromlackofaccesstoa
ingoverwhelmedbydetail.Thestockbrokerswereasked
central,socialworkplace.Thiscouldbeaphysicalcowork
towatchastreamoffinancialdataandwriteaninvolved
ingspace,butitcouldalsobevirtual.Researchersat
emailmessagetoacoll-eague.Astheygotmoreinvolved
Stanford’sVirtualHumanInteractionLabexploringthe
incomposingtheemail,thefNIRS(functionalnear-infrared real-worldsocialbenefitsofinhabitingvirtualworldssuch
spectroscopy,whichmeasuresbloodoxygenlevelsinthe
asSecond Lifereportthatthecollectiveexperienceofa
brain)systemdetectedthis,andsimplifiedthepresentation virtualenvironment,especiallyonewith3Davatars,provides
7
ofdataaccordingly.
significantsocial-emotionalbenefits.Playersexperience
theothersasco-presentandavailable,buttheyareableto
concentrateontheirownin-worldwork.
Onlinestreamscreatedbymicrobloggingandsocial
networkingsitescanserveasvirtualwatercoolers,providing
asenseofcamaraderieandenablingemployeesto- demon
stratepresence.Forexample,YammerisaTwitter-likemicro
bloggingservice,focusedonbusiness—onlyindividualswith
thesamecorporatedomainintheiremailaddresscanaccess
thecompanynetwork.
http://www.cs.tufts.edu
www.yammer.com
I M P L I C AT I ON S
Theresultsofthisresearchhaveimplicationsforindividuals,educationalinstitutions,business,andgovernment.
Tobesuccessfulinthenextdecade,willneedtodemonstrateforesightinnavigatingarapidlyshiftinglandscape
oforganizationalformsandskillrequirements.Theywillincreasinglybecalledupontocontinuallyreassesstheskillst
andquicklyputtogethertherightresourcestodevelopandupdatethese.Workersinthefuturewillneedtobeadaptable
lifelonglearners.
mustalsobealerttothechangingenvironment
attheprimary,secondary,and
andadapttheirworkforceplanninganddevelopmentstrate
post-secondarylevels,arelargelytheproductsoftechnology
toensurealignmentwithfutureskillrequirements.Strategic
infrastructureandsocialcircumstancesofthepast.The
humanresourceprofessionalsmightreconsidertraditional
landscapehaschangedandeducationalinstitutionsshould
foridentifyingcriticalskills,aswellasselectingan
considerhowtoadaptquicklyinresponse.Somedirectionsmethods
of
developingtalent.Consideringthedisruptionslikelytoresh
changemightinclude:
thefuturewillenhancebusinesses’abilitytoensureorganizational
» Placingadditionalemphasisondevelopingskillssuch
as talenthasandcontinuouslyrenewstheskillsnecessary
criticalthinking,insight,andanalysiscapabilities forthesustainabilityofbusinessgoals.Aworkforcestrategy
forsustainingbusinessgoalsshouldbeoneofthemostcritical
outcomesofhumanresourceprofessionalsandshouldinvolve
» Integratingnew-medialiteracyintoeducationprograms
collaboratingwithuniversitiestoaddresslifelonglearning
skillrequirements.
» Includingexperientiallearningthatgivesprominence
tosoftskills—suchastheabilitytocollaborate,workin
willneedtorespondtothe
groups,readsocialcues,andrespondadaptively
changinglandscapebytakingaleadershiproleandmaking
» Broadeningthelearningconstituencybeyondteensandeducationanationalpriority.Ifeducationisnotprioritized,
weriskcompromisingourabilitytoprepareourpeoplefora
youngadultsthroughtoadulthood
healthyandsustainablefuture.ForAmericanstobeprepared
forto
ourbusinessestobecompetitive,policymakersshould
» Integratinginterdisciplinarytrainingthatallowsand
students
developskillsandknowledgeinarangeofsubjects considerthefullrangeofskillscitizenswillrequire,aswella
theimportanceoflifelonglearningandconstantskillrene
Transdisciplinarity
Design
Mindset
Virtual
Collaboration
SenseMaking New Media
Literacy Social
Intelligence Cognitive
Load
Management
Novel
and Adaptive
Thinking
Computational
Thinking new media
ecology
Cross
Cultural
Competency
ENDNOTE S
1
JaronLernier,DoestheDigitalClassroomEnfeebletheMind?New York Times.September16,20.Availableat:http://www.
nytimes.com/201/9/19/magazine/19fob-essay-t.html?pagewanted=2.
2
DavidAutor,The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the US Labor Market.CenterforAmericanProgressandTheHamiltonProject,April201.
3
ScottE.Page,The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies. Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,208.
QuotedinScience & Technology Perspectives,InstitutefortheFuture,SR967.
4
5
QuotedinJohnP.Eberhard,andBrendaPatoine,ArchitectureWiththeBraininMind.TheDanaFoundationweblog,204.Availableat:http://www.dana.org/news/cerebrum/detail.aspx?id=1254.
6
JoanMeyers-Levy,RuiZhu,Theinfluenceofceilingheight:Theeffectofprimingonthetypeofprocessingpeopleuse.Journal of
Consumer Research 207:34.
7
AudreyGirouard,ErinTreacySoloveyetal.,FromBrainSignalstoAdaptiveInterfaces:usingfNIRSinHCI. Brain Computer Inter
facts: Human-Computer Interaction Series, 201,3:21-37.