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Women’s Studies, 39:823–850, 2010 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0049-7878 print / 1547-7045 online DOI: 10.1080/00497878.2010.513316 FINDING HER VOICE: HILLARY CLINTON’S RHETORIC IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 MICHELLE BLIGH, JENNIFER MEROLLA, JEAN REITH SCHROEDEL, and RANDALL GONZALEZ Claremont Graduate University, Claremont “It’s not that voters and her opponents think Clinton is experienced and competent, and they don’t like or trust her. It’s that they think she’s experienced and competent and that’s why they don’t like or trust her.” —Gerber, 2007 After her somewhat surprising third place finish in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus,1 the following week’s New Hampshire primary became an almost must win situation for Hillary Clinton. Rather than coasting to a series of easy primary wins, polls were showing Clinton in a dead heat or losing to Obama, with the momentum seemingly swinging toward the younger, less experienced first term senator from Illinois. In the context of Obama’s double-digit advantage in the polls leading up to the voting, Clinton entered a diner in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, where a middle-aged woman asked a seemingly innocuous question: “How did you get out the door every day? I mean, as a woman, I know how hard it is to get out of the house and get ready?” Clinton seemed to choke up before saying, “I just don’t want to see us fall backward as a nation. I mean this is very personal for me. Not just political. I see what’s happening. We have to reverse it.” Her voice cracked and tears appeared to well up in her eyes, as she went on, “Some people think elections are a game: who’s up or who’s down. It’s about our country. It’s about our kid’s future. It’s about all of us out there together.” She then moved on to points from her stump speech before coming back to the personal side 1 Clinton garnered 29% of the votes in the Iowa caucus as opposed to 38% for Obama and 30% for Edwards. Address correspondence to Michelle Bligh, 123 East Eighth Avenue, Claremont, CA 91711. E-mail: michelle.bligh@cgu.edu 823 Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 824 M. Bligh et al. with, “This is one of the most important elections we’ll ever face. So as tired as I am and as difficult as it is to keep up what I try to do on the road, like occasionally exercise, trying to eat right—it’s tough when the easiest thing is pizza.” In a barely audible voice, Clinton concluded “I just believe . . . so strongly in who we are as a nation. I’m going to do everything that I can to make my case and then the voters get to decide” (Breslau). A couple days later, after her 39–36 point victory over Obama in New Hampshire, Clinton announced she had “found my own voice” that day in Portsmouth. The meaning of Clinton’s tears, as well as the electoral significance of finding her “voice,” almost immediately became a subject of media scrutiny; much of which was hostile. A Newsweek web headline asked, “A Muskie moment, or a helpful glimpse of the ‘real Hillary’?” (Breslau).2 Jon Meacham in another Newsweek piece asked whether Clinton was trying to “humanize herself?” New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd scathingly recounted that another reporter claimed, “That crying really seemed genuine. I’ll bet she spent hours thinking about it beforehand” (Dowd). Washington Post blogger Mary Ann Akers attributed Clinton’s success in finding her voice to her employing Michael Sheehan, a voice and drama coach (Akers). Glenn Beck of CNN Headline News asserted, “I don’t buy the tears. . . . Apparently Hillary Clinton isn’t just running for president, but she’s also making a run for the best actress nomination.” Later in the broadcast, Beck went on to state, “Hillary, we see what’s happening here. You’re losing, and this is some sort of bizarre, last ditch strategy to ingratiate you with women, maybe? Or make you seem less like the Terminator? I mean, I’ve—I wouldn’t put it past you to have your eye fall out and this little red light coming out of your eye socket” (reprinted in Boehlert and Foser). As academics rather than media pundits, our questions about Clinton finding her “voice” are somewhat different than those cited above. We are not particularly concerned with whether Clinton’s show of emotion was genuine or not. We are, however, interested in whether there really was a change in Clinton’s campaign message. In this study, we examine the following specific 2 The Muskie reference was to an incident in the 1972 presidential campaign when Edward Muskie’s cheek got wet during an interview where attacks on his wife were raised. Although people still debate whether it was real tears, the result of the event is indisputable. Muskie’s campaign was destroyed and he was labeled as too emotional for the office of president. Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 825 researchquestions:DidClintonreallyfindher“voice”inPortsmouth, or was that simply a campaign or media story?3 And if there was an identifiable shift in her message, what exactly did that entail? Given the unique challenges facing the first female serious contender for the White House, was the shift in a more stereotypically “masculine” or “feminine” direction? And finally, did “finding her voice” involve shifts toward a more charismatic, change-oriented style? Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 The Clinton Campaign as a Critical Case Study Single case studies are an appropriate methodological choice when the phenomenon being analyzed is new or previously inaccessible to researchers. The method is ideally suited to explain the “how” or “why” something occurred (Yin). The Clinton presidential campaign is just such a case study situation because it provides one of the first opportunities to study a politically viable female candidate for president negotiating competing demands to project a presidential image, while at the same time not violating gender norms. We propose to examine her response to these competing demands by comparing the linguistic choices of Clinton before and after she “found her voice.” The conventional story line is that Clinton projected “too strong” of an image prior to Portsmouth, and thereby turned off both male and female voters, albeit in different ways: the male voters found her to be emasculating prior to Portsmouth, while women did not feel like she connected with their lives and represented them. Gender Stereotypes and the Office of the Presidency There is a substantial literature on the influence of gender stereotypes on voters’ perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses 3 There is a substantial literature showing that the media covers female candidates differently than male candidates (Carroll and Schreiber; Kahn Does Being Male Help; Kahn Does Gender Make a Difference; Kahn Political Consequences of Being a Woman; Kahn and Goldenberg), although more recent research indicates that the gender differences have been declining (Bystrom, Robertson, and Banwart; Jalalzai). Countering this, however, is research suggesting that the gender bias in media coverage is greatest with presidential candidates (Aday and Devitt; Bystrom; Heldman, Carroll, and Olson). Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 826 M. Bligh et al. of male and female candidates. These stereotypes fall into two general classes: belief- and trait-based.4 With respect to belief stereotypes, women are generally seen as more liberal than they actually are (e.g., Koch Do Citizens Apply Gender Stereotypes; Matland and King; McDermott, but see Hayes), and as better able to handle issues involving women, education, civil rights, and poverty, but as less able to handle traditionally male duties such as the military, foreign policy, and crime (e.g., Burrell; Huddy and Terkildsen Gender Stereotypes and the Perceptions; Huddy and Terkildsen Consequences of Gender Stereotypes; Lawless; Matland).5 When issues that advantage women have a high degree of salience to voters, the gender stereotype can favor female candidates (Dolan; Huddy and Terkildsen; Kahn Political Consequences of Being a Woman; Paolino; Plutzer and Zipp), but the opposite can also be true. With respect to trait stereotypes, women are generally seen as more compassionate, trustworthy, willing to compromise, and more empathetic, while men are viewed as stronger leaders, and more assertive, active, and self-confident (e.g., Burrell; Huddy and Terkildsen Gender Stereotypes and the Perceptions; Huddy and Terkildsen Consequences of Gender Stereotypes; Matland and King). It is commonly held that these stereotypes make it more difficult for women to gain the higher levels of political office, as these offices are generally associated with more “masculine” characteristics (Fox and Oxley; Huddy and Terkildsen Consequences of Gender Stereotypes). Research on leadership, primarily from social psychology, provides insights into the interaction between socio-demographic factors and trait-based stereotypes. There is a large literature exploring how linguistic styles and choices of words can be used to convey messages about an individual’s leadership style (e.g., Inch, Moore, and Murphy). Social psychologists also have found that judgments about individual leaders are based in part upon evaluations of their perceived warmth and competence (Fiske 4 Belief stereotypes refer to the ideology and issue competencies that individuals ascribe to males and females, while trait stereotypes refer to the personal qualities and characteristics that people infer about men and women (Huddy and Terkildsen Gender Stereotypes and the Perceptions). 5 Male duties are also generally perceived as more important than female duties, and this is more pronounced at higher levels of office (Rosenwasser and Dean; Rosenwasser and Seale). Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 827 et al. (Dis)respecting Versus (Dis)liking ; Fiske et al. Model of (Often Mixed) Stereotype Content; Judd et al.). But these judgments do not occur in a vacuum; instead they are heavily influenced by sociodemographic factors, most notably biological sex (see Cutler). For example, competence in male leaders is viewed as a positive trait, but competent women are often seen as cold, resulting in negative evaluations (Fiske et al. Model of (Often Mixed) Stereotype Content). Moreover, other studies (Hogg Organizational Orthodoxy and Corporate Autocrats; Hogg Uncertainty, Social Identity and Ideology) have found that the desire for a prototypical male leader is strongest during times of uncertainty and stress.6 Overall, the research suggests several important points about Clinton finding her “voice” in New Hampshire. First, all of the research indicates that the office of the president is intertwined with notions of masculinity, and this is likely to pose significant problems for any female presidential candidate. Second, findings in social psychology suggest that it is difficult for females in leadership positions to garner positive evaluations on the two dimensions (warmth and competence) identified as being essential to effective leaders. A linguistic style and choice of words that conveys strength and competence in a male leader may result in a female leader being labeled as “cold,” but a more caring/maternal style may signal the female leader lacks the strength necessary to handle crises. Leadership in the Context of the 2008 Election While there were clearly a multitude of salient leadership themes in the 2008 election, and candidates evoke many different styles of leadership to appeal to voters, charismatic leadership has been shown to be a particularly appealing, powerful style that resonates strongly with followers (Bass; Bligh, Kohles, and Pillai; Bryman; Fiol, Harris, and House; House, Woycke, and Fodor; Merolla, Ramos, and Zechmeister). Evaluations of a candidate as more or less charismatic influences perceptions of leader effectiveness 6 Political scientist, Jennifer Lawless, also found that one year after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that respondents to a national public opinion survey had a strong preference for male leaders in times of crisis. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 828 M. Bligh et al. (see Bligh, Kohles, and Pillai), and are likely to have significant influence in the voting booth. In addition, given the unique context and circumstances leading up to the recent election, a more charismatic leadership style may have been particularly appealing to voters in 2008. According to Shamir and Howell, aspects of charismatic, change-oriented leadership are particularly attractive in the following situations: (1) levels of low performance lead to the desire for new leadership; (2) the potential for a new leader to replace a somewhat non-charismatic leader; and (3) a relatively “weak” situation (Mischel) characterized by ambiguity or crisis (see also Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charisma Under Crisis; Madsen and Snow; Merolla, Ramos, and Zechmeister). By the time of the 2008 election, George W. Bush’s approval ratings had “dipped to 20%, the lowest ever recorded for a president” (CBS News Poll). As Shamir and House point out, when opportunities exist for a new leader to be elected or appointed, expectations for change among followers are likely to increase, as the new leader represents “opportunities to re-frame and change existing interpretations, suggest new solutions to existing problems, and infuse a new spirit” (273). Therefore, we argue that the 2008 election had characteristics likely to enhance the appeal of more charismatic, change-oriented styles of leadership. Perhaps even more relevant for our purposes, charismatic leadership uniquely straddles or transcends the double-bind of gender stereotypes. In essence, prototypical charismatic leaders appeal to followers on both stereotypically masculine (e.g., agentic, dominant, determined) and stereotypically feminine (e.g., emotional, caring, empathetic, other-oriented) levels. In our analyses, we explore the extent to which Clinton’s speech before and after Portsmouth represents a shift toward more stereotypically feminine aspects of charismatic leadership (i.e., empathetic similarity to followers, less tangible and more ambiguous speech) versus more stereotypically masculine aspects (i.e., active, aggressive speech). The Rhetoric of “Charisma” Charismatic leadership was originally described by Max Weber as a somewhat “magical” process involving a leader with “exceptional Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 829 powers or qualities” (Weber 358). Previous research has attempted to “demystify” charismatic leadership style, focusing on the role of a leader’s visionary rhetoric in understanding charismatic leadership (e.g., Emrich et al.; Seyranian and Bligh). Shamir, House, and Arthur highlight the role of communication in their self-concept based theory, which argues that the effects of charismatic leadership are largely due to a leader’s ability to increase the appeal of collective goals by clearly linking core aspects of the leader’s vision to core aspects of followers’ self-concepts. While previous research has examined the content of visionary and change-oriented rhetoric in political contexts (e.g., Bligh and Robinson), this research has not considered the role of gender stereotypes in the usage of visionary rhetoric. In the present study, we examine whether or not the content of Hillary Clinton’s speech changed along these dimensions as she found her “voice” in the presidential campaign. We examined constructs regarding the content of leadership rhetoric that have been theoretically (see Shamir et al. 1993) and empirically (see Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charisma Under Crisis) linked to engaging the collective identity of followers and enhancing charismatic attributions. Three of the constructs are more stereotypically communal or “feminine”: collective orientation, followers’ worth, and similarity to followers, two are more stereotypically agentic or “masculine”: action and adversity, and three are relatively gender neutral: values or moral justifications, temporal orientation, and tangibility. A description of the eight constructs follows. In addition, the content analysis dictionaries for each construct, along with a brief description and sample words from each is located in the appendix. Due to the fact that we are specifically interested in the gendered aspects of each dictionary, we examine each construct separately in order to allow a more nuanced picture of Clinton’s rhetoric. Stereotypically Feminine Aspects of Charisma According to Thomas, “because women have traditionally been associated with nurturant, less individualistic values, some people assume that they will transform the political arena along ‘kinder, gentler’ lines” (12). In order to examine the extent to which Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 830 M. Bligh et al. Clinton’s rhetoric mirrored these gender stereotypes before and after Portsmouth, we examined levels of collective focus, support for followers, and similarity to followers in her speeches. Collective focus. To build consensus and trust, prior research suggests that inclusive language affirms and highlights followers’ social identity (Tajfel; see also Hogg, Hains, and Mason; Shamir, House, and Arthur). People are more likely to be persuaded (Cialdini and Trost) and to trust (Fiske) similar others. Construing him or herself as a member of the audience’s in-group enhances a leader’s ability to influence others (Reicher and Hopkins), which can partially be accomplished by using high levels of collective language (e.g., “we,” “us,” and “our”) (Fiol, Harris, and House). Prior research also suggests that a collective, inclusive style of leadership is associated with increasing numbers of women in the legislature, who invoke a more integrative, collaborative, and consensual style than their male counterparts (Dodson and Carroll; Kathlene; Rosenthal; Thomas). To examine this construct in Clinton’s speeches, we examined Clinton’s references to collectives versus her use of self-referential terms (“I” and “my”). Follower’s worth. Charismatic and transformational leaders have been argued to demonstrate confidence in their followers and enhance their collective efficacy (House et al. 1991; Shamir, Arthur, and House) in order to bolster confidence in followers’ abilities to achieve a better future under the new leader. Praising followers is one means for leaders to both flatter and ingratiate themselves to voters. We therefore examined the praise dictionary, consisting of positive affirmations of a person, group, or abstract entity, and the satisfaction dictionary, which incorporates terms associated with positive affective states and moments of joy and triumph. Similarity to followers. By stressing similarity with the American public, a political leader may gain followers’ trust and emphasize his or her status as members of the in-group (Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charisma Under Crisis; Fiol, Harris, and House; Shamir, Arthur, and House). Stressing one’s similarity to her followers may also help women leaders in particular to mitigate the potential backlash effect or social rejection of challenging traditional gender roles (Rudman). To explore this aspect of speech, we Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 831 examined the use of language focused on familiarity and human interest. These dictionaries include language used to ignore individual differences and build a sense of completeness and words that specifically focus on human beings and their activities. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Stereotypically Masculine Aspects of Charisma We also examined two aspects of political rhetoric more traditionally associated with agentic leadership: action and adversity. Action. A bold, purposeful vision and a sense of confidence in attaining that vision are considered important elements of charismatic leadership (Conger). A number of studies have highlighted the role of proactivity (Deluga) and strong action (Maranell and Dodder) in predicting presidential success. Prior research suggests that successful political candidates must mobilize followers into action (Fiol, Harris, and Robert House; Shamir, House, and Arthur) and create a sense of excitement and adventure (Bass) around their campaigns. Additional research has highlighted the importance of masculine characteristics (e.g., analytic skills, agency) in communicating suitability for political office, suggesting “it may behoove women to develop attributes traditionally considered ‘masculine’” (Rosenwasser and Dean 83). Women in political leadership roles tend to exhibit more stereotypically masculine characteristics, such as high self-confidence, dominance, and high levels of achievement (Constantini and Craik). To assess this construct, we examined Clinton’s relative use of words in the aggression and accomplishment dictionaries. These dictionaries reflect a candidate’s use of words reflecting competition, action, and triumph. Adversity. Agentic and decisive leadership is also associated with a leader’s ability to articulate why action is necessary and in some cases inevitable. To assess this variable, we examined Clinton’s references to blame and hardship, or language intended to “describe or exaggerate the current situation as intolerable” (Conger 36). Prior research highlights the ability of a changeoriented leader to articulate how dangerous the enemy is or how unnecessary the suffering is in order to challenge the status quo 832 M. Bligh et al. and motivate followers. In this manner, the leader attempts to generate support for his or her candidacy and vision to overcome adversity (Fiol, Harris, and House). Thus, this construct includes language reflecting social inappropriateness, evil, unfortunate circumstances, and censurable behavior. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Gender Neutral Aspects of Charisma Values and moral justifications. Shamir, Arthur, and House also theorized that change-oriented leaders make more references to values and moral justifications. According to Awamleh and Gardner, leaders can enhance followers’ perceptions “by using symbolic language that challenges and appeals to followers’ higher level values” (359). Including dictionaries for religious terms and inspiration, we were able to identify speech that focuses on the morality of the leader’s cause and draws on themes of values and morality in an attempt to incite followers to identify with moral integrity of the leader’s vision of the future. Temporal orientation. Shamir, Arthur, and House also suggest that charismatic leaders will make repeated references to the continuity between past and present, in an attempt to highlight their role in spearheading the short and long-term changes that they hope to implement. However, in the context of a presidential election in which Clinton was attempting to signal a break with both the Bush administration and the former controversial presidency of her husband, we might expect to find lower levels of past and present-oriented speech as Clinton developed her own voice and vision for her presidency. To examine this aspect of rhetoric, we examined the temporal awareness dictionary, which includes references to literal time (e.g., century, instant, mid-morning) as well as metaphorical designations (e.g., nowadays). Tangibility. Finally, a number of scholars have suggested that charismatic and transformational leaders will make more references to intangible future goals and fewer references to concrete, tangible outcomes (Shamir, Arthur, and House; Willner; Conger). To test this notion, we examined the dictionary for tenacity, which includes verbs connoting confidence and totality. Lower scores represent a speaker’s preference for precise speech as opposed to flowery or grandiose speech. Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 833 Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Methodology Our primary data set is comprised of the 87 speeches and interviews that Hillary Clinton gave during the course of her primary presidential campaign (dating from February 7, 2007 to the Democratic National Convention in August, 2008). These speeches were downloaded from the Clinton campaign website, and are thus arguably representative of the primary content that the campaign hoped to disseminate to the voters. It is important to note that these speeches do not represent the entirety of the speeches and appearances that Clinton gave during the campaign (See Appendix for the list of speeches). The data set is almost evenly divided, with 41 of the speeches and interviews given prior to the January 7th visit to the Portsmouth diner and 46 from January 7th onwards, so we have a relatively balanced representation of her before and after she found her “voice.” As a methodology, content analysis provides insights into the word choices employed by candidates themselves in context, making it a valuable tool for research into how candidates use language to appeal to broad groups of voters. One of the primary rationales for using computerized content analysis is to probe a text on a deeper and subtler level than the ordinary person can. This approach assumes that the specific choice of words that a candidate uses can be particularly illustrative of the leadership themes that he or she hopes to convey and the issues that he or she wishes to highlight. Linguistic styles provide insights into a candidate’s approach to issues and leadership style. And given the highly visible and politicized nature of presidential campaigns, computerized content analysis has the additional advantage of providing an impartial analysis, devoid of partisan and ideological bias (Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charting the Language of Leadership; Schuh and Miller). There are, however, some additional benefits and limitations inherent when using this approach. Content analysis is perfectly objective and reliable, avoiding the inherent bias “which so often results when something as volatile and emotional as politics is examined by something as volatile and emotional as a human being” (Hart Verbal Style and the Presidency 101). In addition, due to its microscopic level of detail, the program is ideal for uncovering aspects of language that even the trained human ear may 834 M. Bligh et al. not readily perceive (see Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charting the Language of Leadership). Important limitations should be noted as well. First, there is the assumption that higher frequency usages of a word mean that a concept is more meaningful or important to the speaker than less frequently utilized words. Second, it is important to note that words are divorced from their original contexts (for a more thorough discussion of the content analysis limitations, see Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charting the Language of Leadership; Hart DICTION 5.0). Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Procedure We chose Diction 5.0 (Hart DICTION 5.0) for our analyses, a content analysis program specifically designed for political discourse. Diction has been used to study semantics in a variety of social discourse arenas such as politics and communication (Bligh, Kohles, and Meindl Charisma Under Crisis; Hart DICTION 5.0; Hart Redeveloping DICTION ). Because we wanted the measure of Clinton’s speeches to be as impartial as possible, Diction was an appropriate choice due to its explicit development for political discourse and grounding in linguistic theory (see Hart Verbal Style and the Presidency, Hart DICTION 5.0; Hart Redeveloping DICTION for discussion of the development of Diction). To our knowledge, Diction is the only program that has been specifically designed for political dialogue, containing words “most frequently encountered in contemporary American public discourse” (Hart Verbal Style and the Presidency 110). By default, Diction uses 33 dictionaries, containing over 10,000 search words, to analyze a passage. All of the dictionaries contain individual words only, and statistical weighting procedures are utilized to deal with homographs. In addition, Diction scores each 500-word passage of text, allowing easy comparison across passages and candidates. Results The overall means, standard deviations, and intercorrelations for each of the constructs are listed in Table 1. Before analysis, the variables were scanned for accuracy and examined for outliers. 835 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Collective Focus Temporal Orientation Followers’ Worth Similarity to Followers Values/Moral Just. Tangibility Action Adversity 1 Note. N = 631. ∗ p < .05, ∗∗ p < .01. Variables .51 36.31 11.75 169.44 6.38 69.08 3.49 12.26 2 10.95 8.03 5.42 16.35 4.69 29.74 10.62 5.61 1 −.11∗∗ −.06 .03 .08∗ .32∗∗ .28∗∗ .14∗∗ 2 .18∗∗ .14∗∗ −.03 −.09∗ −.01 −.07 3 4 .12∗∗ .21∗∗ −.13∗∗ .03 −.17∗∗ TABLE 1 Means, Standard Deviations, and Intercorrelations for Hillary Clinton Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 .14∗ −.38∗∗ −.15∗∗ −.10∗ 5 −.14∗∗ .05 .07 6 8 .23∗∗ .02 −.02 7 Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 836 M. Bligh et al. A one-way multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) was then conducted to examine whether there were significant differences in Clinton’s speech before and after January 7th. The dependent variables included the fourteen pre-defined constructs, and the occurrence of the speech segment (pre- or post) was the independent factor. The total number of words per speech, which varied from less than 500 words to nearly 9,000 words, was included as a covariate. Overall, there were significant differences pre– and post–January 7, 2008, Wilks’ # ⊂ = .66, F (14, 71) = 2.61, p < .01, |2 = .34. Thus, we can reject the assertion that the content of Clinton’s speech was the same before and after the New Hampshire primary. Univariate analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) tests were conducted on each of the dependent variables as follow-up tests to the significant MANCOVA. An overview of the mean differences on each of the constructs, along with the means and standard errors, univariate F tests, partial eta squared, and observed power is provided in Table 2. Turning first to the stereotypically feminine constructs, the univariate ANCOVA was significant for both collective language and self-reference, highlighting that Clinton scored significantly lower on collective focus after the event in Portsmouth. These results suggest that in the latter stages of the campaign, Clinton became less focused on the collective, using significantly more self-references (i.e., “I,” “my,” and “myself”) than collective oriented language (e.g., “we,” “us,” and “our”). For example, on the stump in December in Iowa, Clinton remarked: Who knows what we will invent if we get serious about energy and global warming. Let’s unleash the innovative genius of America again. There isn’t anything we can’t do if we put our minds to it. (December 17, 2007, Johnston, Iowa) In contrast, we see a shift to more self references after the New Hampshire primary: I have been to Africa and have seen how disease—HIV, AIDS, Tuberculosis, Malaria—undermine progress across an entire continent. I pushed our government to start battling the global AIDS epidemic because this affects our security too. I’m very hopeful that we will make progress in Africa dealing with the multiplicity of challenges that the continent faces. (February 25, 2008, Washington, D.C.) 837 10.02 13.09 5.85 7.01 122.83 43.25 3.86 12.91 1.36 4.01 6.59 4.29 16.53 32.29 Collectives Self reference Praise Satisfaction Familiarity Human interest Aggression Accomplishment Blame Hardship Inspiration Religious values Temporal orientation Tenacity .58 1.03 .42 .60 2.23 2.65 .43 .71 .16 .32 .54 1.37 .72 1.32 SE 8.01 15.97 6.21 7.80 117.37 47.19 5.20 11.39 1.52 2.97 6.04 6.09 14.88 34.83 Post-2/7 mean Note. Pre-2/7/08 N = 41, Post-2/7/08 N = 46. † p < .10, ∗ p < .05, ∗∗ p < .01. Pre-2/7 mean Charismatic construct .55 .97 .39 .56 2.09 2.50 .41 .67 .15 .30 .51 1.29 .68 1.25 SE TABLE 2 Mean Comparisons for Clinton Constructs Pre- and Post -“Voice” Eta squared .07 .04 .01 .01 .03 .01 .05 .03 .01 .06 .01 .01 .03 .02 Univariate F (1, 630) 6.51∗∗ 3.88∗ 2.54 .86 3.00† 1.10 4.79∗ 2.32 .54 5.08∗ .51 .85 2.6 1.83 Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 .71 .50 .09 .15 .40 .18 .58 .33 .11 .61 .11 .15 .36 .27 Observed power 838 M. Bligh et al. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Overall then, it appears that the story promoted by the media was not factually accurate. Clinton did not adopt more language reflective of the “feminine” aspects of charisma, and was lower on the collective focus dimension. If we turn to the stereotypically male constructs related to charisma, we find that Clinton’s language became significantly more aggressive post January 7th, with less focus on the dimension of adversity. Thus, she became more inclined to use language reflecting energy and goal oriented action. A fighting spirit was apparent post-Portsmouth: Many times the national press and the pundits have said: “Butte’s a goner.” But you said: “No, we aren’t.” And your progress today proves you were right. I’m awfully happy to be among people who have the spunk, the courage, and the determination to stay in the fight, to keep fighting for a better tomorrow, to know that we’re going to bring that same spirit to this campaign. (April 4, 2008, Butte, Montana) The findings for the male constructs do not consistently support the pundit claims that Clinton “softened” her image post–New Hampshire, if by soften we mean used less masculine language. While she did use more aggressive speech, she made significantly fewer references to hardships in her campaign. Finally, on the gender neutral constructs, there were no significant differences in her speeches pre– and post–New Hampshire on the tangibility and temporality constructs. A Rhetorical Comparison: Clinton and the Opposing Candidates We collected a comparative sample of the primary male contenders in the 2008 presidential election, from January 2007 until the respective party conventions in August and September, 2008. Our final sample included Republicans John McCain (137 speeches) and Mitt Romney (25 speeches), as well as Democrat Barack Obama (172 speeches). Republican Mike Huckabee was excluded from analysis due to the small number of speeches collected (N = 10). To examine how Clinton’s speeches compared to her male opponents, we performed a univariate ANOVA, with candidate as the independent variable and the eight constructs as the dependent variables. We found significant differences for all of the Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 839 variables, with the exception of tangibility, suggesting that the political candidates’ speeches differed significantly on seven of the eight variables (see Table 3). We subsequently conduct posthoc follow-ups to the significant ANOVAs, utilizing the Bonferroni correction procedure. Mean differences from Clinton for each of the other candidates are listed by variable in Table 3. With respect to the stereotypically feminine aspects of charisma, Clinton’s speeches included significantly less language focused on the collective relative to Obama, with a similar frequency of references as compared to the Republican primary candidates. However, her speeches included significantly more positive affirmation of followers relative to Obama and more language indicating similarity to followers relative to McCain. However, her language praising followers was significantly lower than Romney’s. It seems then that there is a mixed bag with respect to the feminine aspects of charisma across the candidates. Since Clinton scored higher on some dimensions and lower on others, she is not significantly more likely to use the stereotypically feminine language than the opposing male candidates. With respect to the stereotypically masculine constructs of charisma, we find that Clinton is significantly lower on action oriented language relative to McCain and on adversity language relative to Obama and McCain. The picture that emerges for this construct is thus more consistent, with Clinton being less inclined to use the more agentic language than some of her male counterparts. Finally, on the gender neutral constructs, Clinton had a higher use of temporal language relative to the two Republican candidates, and a lower use of language reflecting morality and values than all three male candidates. Discussion and Conclusion That Clinton was considered not only a serious contender, but the front runner in the 2008 Democratic primary is a sign that bias against female candidates may be waning. However, it certainly does not mean that gender stereotypes have disappeared from the American political landscape. The whole media frenzy over Clinton getting choked up in New Hampshire prior to its primary election is a testament to this statement. It is likely that trait- and 840 8.92 14.69 5.95 7.45 119.97 44.68 4.43 12.20 1.45 3.32 5.89 3.98 15.54 34.04 Collectives Self reference Praise Satisfaction Familiarity Human interest Aggression Accomplishment Blame Hardship Inspiration Religious values Temporal orientation Tenacity .53 .93 .48 .87 1.65 1.65 .38 .57 .15 .32 .41 1.25 .65 .96 SE 9.4 12.53 5.26 5.68 126.81 38.97 5.51 13.59 1.76 4.84 6.51 5.80 18.85 34.83 Obama mean .36 .64 .33 .60 1.14 1.14 .26 .39 .10 .22 .28 .86 .45 .66 SE 10.05 15.87 8.86 6.72 120.68 36.80 7.19 12.76 2.38 6.21 8.38 4.85 13.08 30.76 McCain mean .42 .73 .38 .69 1.30 1.31 .30 .45 .12 .26 .32 .99 .52 .76 SE 11.12 10.63 9.06 7.73 121.64 43.97 7.13 11.32 1.64 4.78 6.41 12.99 14.04 35.42 Romney mean Note. Clinton N = 87, Obama N = 172, McCain N = 137, Romney N = 25. † p < .10, p < .05, ∗∗ p < .01, ∗∗∗ p < .001. Clinton mean Construct TABLE 3 Mean Comparisons between Clinton and Her Opponents Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 .95 1.68 .88 1.57 2.99 2.99 .69 1.02 .27 .59 .74 2.27 1.18 1.73 SE 1.79 5.56 19.23∗∗∗ 1.30 6.13∗∗∗ 5.38∗∗∗ 12.06∗∗∗ 2.45† 9.12∗∗∗ 15.92∗∗∗ 9.43∗∗∗ 4.40∗∗ 25.08∗∗∗ 6.19∗∗∗ F (3,416) Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric 841 belief-based gender stereotypes about candidates will persist for some time. In this article we sought to explore whether or not the pundits’ claims that Clinton found her “voice” held any weight or whether it was just plain media hype. The perception among the media was that she became less “masculine” and showed her “feminine” side after New Hampshire. To systematically examine these claims, we analyzed Clinton’s campaign rhetoric before and after that event. We conceived of voice as the particular leadership style expressed in Clinton’s speeches. More specifically, we assessed the degree to which her language reflected the eight component parts of charismatic language. Although studies of trait based stereotypes stop at the finding that men are advantaged on the dimension of strong leadership, charismatic leadership is multidimensional and the constructs associated with it have some components that reflect stereotypically masculine traits, but others that reflect feminine ones. We did find some element of truth to the media claims. Although we cannot assess if Clinton found her “voice,” we did observe a statistically significant difference in her speeches across five of the eight constructs that make up charismatic language before and after the event. Clinton became less inclined to use the masculine language surrounding action and more likely to use two of the feminine constructs after New Hampshire. She was more likely to use language related to similarity with and praise of followers, but less likely to use the construct associated with a collective sense of mission. As a point of comparison, we also compared her speeches relative to Obama and two of the Republican primary contenders. Here we found Clinton was significantly less inclined to use masculine constructs of action and adversity relative to her male counterparts, but she was not necessarily more likely to use feminine constructs. She was higher than Obama on followers’ worth, but lower than Romney, and higher on similarity to followers than McCain. However, she was lower than all three on a collective sense of mission. Overall, we note that for all of the importance that the media places on politicians’ leadership style, we have very little systematic analysis of the concept, its use and its effects. In addition, we have little data on the role of competing gender and leadership 842 M. Bligh et al. stereotypes in the candidacies of women at the highest levels of political office. Our goal was to systematically analyze Clinton’s “voice” in the 2008 campaign, and highlight different aspects of leadership style that candidates may utilize to signal their potential viability and likelihood of success in political campaigns. We hope that future research will continue to explore the interaction of leadership rhetoric, media coverage, and gender stereotypes in both helping and hindering the ascension of women into the oval office. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Works Cited Aday, Sean, and James Devitt. “Style over Substance: Newspaper Coverage of Elizabeth Dole’s Presidential Bid.” Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics 6.2 (2001): 61–73. 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Yin, Robert K. Case Study Research: Design and Methods. Rev. Ed. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1989. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Appendix: Clinton Speeches Date 01/27/07 01/28/07 02/10/07 02/10/07 02/11/07 02/17/07 02/19/07 03/11/07 03/11/07 03/14/07 03/17/07 03/19/07 03/26/07 03/27/07 03/30/07 04/02/07 04/02/07 04/02/07 04/03/07 04/13/07 04/16/07 04/20/07 04/20/07 04/21/07 04/25/07 04/27/07 04/27/07 05/05/07 Speech Location Des Moines Davenport Concord Berlin Keene Dover Columbia Nashua Nashua Washington Houston Charleston Des Moines Washington Concord Ft. Madison Burlington Elizabeth Iowa City Manchester New Brunswick New Brunswick New York Des Moines Washington San Diego Washington Baton Rouge IA IA NH NH NH NH SC NH NH DC TX SC IA DC NH IA IA NJ IA NH NJ NJ NY IA DC CA DC LA 848 M. Bligh et al. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Date 05/05/07 05/11/07 05/12/07 05/12/07 05/19/07 05/21/07 05/24/07 05/29/07 05/31/07 06/02/07 06/14/07 06/20/07 06/22/07 06/23/07 06/25/07 06/27/07 07/02/07 07/06/07 07/06/07 07/10/07 07/17/07 07/17/07 07/20/07 07/25/07 07/26/07 07/27/07 07/28/07 07/31/07 08/04/07 08/07/07 08/08/07 08/10/07 08/14/07 08/15/07 08/15/07 08/18/07 08/20/07 08/20/07 08/23/07 09/04/07 09/05/07 09/07/07 09/07/07 Speech Location Wilberforce Portsmouth Columbus Orangeburg New Orleans Miami Beach Washington Manchester Sunnyvale Cedar Rapids Manchester Washington Los Angeles Little Rock Scottsdale Washington Philadelphia New Orleans Cleveland Des Moines Washington Richmond Des Moines Albany Columbia Fairfax Columbia Storm Lake Chicago Derry Rochester San Francisco Dubuque Waukee Waterloo Cedar Rapids Little Rock Kansas City Lebanon Washington Philadelphia Boston Atlantic City OH NH OH SC LA FL DC NH CA IA NH DC CA AR AZ DC PA LA OH IA DC VA IA NY SC VA SC IA IL NH NH CA IA IA IA IA AR MO NH DC PA MA NJ Finding Her Voice: Hillary Clinton’s Rhetoric Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Date 09/15/07 09/16/07 09/17/07 09/17/07 09/17/07 09/17/07 10/04/07 10/08/07 10/10/07 10/11/07 10/13/07 10/13/07 10/16/07 10/17/07 10/24/07 11/01/07 11/01/07 11/02/07 11/04/07 11/05/07 11/06/07 11/12/07 11/17/07 11/24/07 11/24/07 11/25/07 11/26/07 11/27/07 11/28/07 12/05/07 12/07/07 12/08/07 12/08/07 12/08/07 01/04/08 01/04/08 01/24/08 01/30/08 02/06/08 02/11/08 02/16/08 02/16/08 02/25/08 849 Speech Location North Charleston Indianola Washington Chicago Des Moines Des Moines Washington Cedar Rapids Merrimack Plymouth Birmingham Des Moines Manchester Washington Ames Wellesley Durham Manchester West Burlington Cedar Rapids Newton Denver Las Vegas Sioux City Sac City Perry Concord Aiken Ankeny New York Des Moines Winterset Williamsburg Washington Milford Milford Greenville Atlanta Arlington Charlottesville Lubbock Amarillo Washington SC IA DC IL IA IA DC IA NH NH AL IA NH DC IA MA NH NH IA IA IA CO NV IA IA IA NH SC IA NY IA IA IA IA NH NH SC GA VA VA TX TX DC 850 M. Bligh et al. Downloaded By: [Scripps College] At: 17:21 25 May 2011 Date 02/28/08 03/02/08 03/06/08 03/07/08 03/17/08 03/19/08 03/20/08 03/24/08 03/27/08 03/29/08 04/01/08 04/04/08 04/04/08 04/06/08 04/08/08 04/10/08 04/11/08 04/11/08 04/14/08 04/16/08 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/10/08 06/04/08 Speech Location Houston Mayfield Heights Canton Media Washington Detroit Terre Haute Philadelphia Raleigh New Albany Philadelphia Grand Forks Grand Forks San Juan Washington Pittsburgh Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia Washington Raleigh Louisville Billings Washington TX OH MS PA DC MI IN PA NC IN PA ND ND PR DC PA PA PA PA DC NC KY MT DC