IEEE CommSoc SCV
3G Spells Deconstruction
for the
Wireless Industry
14 April 1999
Ravi Subramanian, Ph.D.
10350 S. De Anza Blvd.
Cupertino, CA 95014, USA
email: ravis@morphics.com
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.1)
Outline
❑ Introduction
❑ The Vertical Industry Chain
●
Service Providers
●
Equipment Manufacturers
●
Semiconductor Houses
❑ Deconstruction
❑ Enabling Technologies for 3G (oops…>2G)
❑ SW Radio- Myths and Realities
❑ Rules of Competition
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.2)
The Evolution of Consumer Acceptance
Percentage of Population Who
Own Or Have Access To Products/Services (in US)
100%
Television
90
Electricity
Air Travel
Telephone
Radio
Microwave
80
VCR
70
Automobile
60
50
40
Cell
Phones
30 Internet
PCs
20
10
0
0
10
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Years
Source: C. Farill, 1998
(RS.3)
Wireless Market Growth
Worldwide cellular & PCS subscribers are
projected to grow to over 800 million* by 2002.
Subscribers (m)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
.
*Strategis, Herschel Shosteck, Dataquest, Nokia, Ericsson
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.4)
Moving To A Data-Pipe-Centric World
G lo b al U n it S ales F o recast
C e llular/P C S Hands e ts and P e rs o nal C o mpute rs
450
400
350
300
m illions
250
of
units 200
150
handsets
Series1
Series2
PCs
100
50
0
1
1996
2
1997
3
1998
4
5 2001 6 2002 2003
7
1999
2000
Ye a r
Handset market is projected to be worth $60 Billion by 2002!
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
Source: BT Alex Brown, Morgan Stanley, ITU, Ericsson, Nokia, Strategis
Notes: 1999-2003 are estimates
(RS.5)
Base Station Shipments
Network growth will drive sales of base stations and will
approach $36B by 2002.
40
35
30
Basestation
25
Shipments
20
($B)
15
10
5
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Enterprise base stations will drive this market strongly
*ABI, Dataquest, Nokia, Ericsson
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.6)
The Turning Point
U S L o n g D istan ce T raffic
(B illio n s o f G ig ab its /year)
12
10
8
vo ice
6
data
4
2
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Source: BT Alex Brown, Nortel, Lucent, Telcordia
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.7)
The Industry Chain
Service Consumer
Network Operator
PHILIPS
Equipment Manufacturer
Semiconductor House
SEIMENS
Enabling Technology Providers
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.8)
Profits In This Chain
$ Billions
Wireless Industry Operating Profits
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
OEM Profits
NetOp Profits
Semi Profits
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources:
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
EMC Database, Salomon Smith-Barney Research, BT Alex.Brown Research, Strategis, Herschel
Shosteck Associates, Wireless Industry 10K Reports
(RS.9)
Network Operators
❑ It’s all about owning the market for global telecom minutes
●
Wireless will grow to an estimated 25-30% of global telecom minutes
[Strategis, 1997]
●
25% of wireless traffic will be data by 2002
❑ Major players have a worldwide plan (function of bal. sheet)
●
Today, 95+% of network operators= service provider
●
Network Operators
● Consolidation brings multistandard properties worldwide
● Infrastructure investment protection
● Future-proofing handsets
●
Service Operators
● Evolve to providing value-added services over plant
● Evolution to a software business model
❑ Their suppliers are beginning to compete with them
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.10)
Equipment Manufacturers
❑ Equipment manufacturers are
facing an explosion in standards
❑ New standards are driving new
product architectures
❑ New product architectures driving
new silicon solutions
❑ Control of the product <-> control
of the product architecture <->
silicon architects in system houses
❑ Equip manufacturers are financing
more and more of their sales->
moving to operating the network
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.11)
Equipment Manufacturer Challenges
Winning Means Capturing Profits By Being To Market First!
100%
100%
90%
78%
80%
% P ro fit G ain e d
96%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Time
to
Market
20%
10%
0%
E v e ry th in g
R ig h t
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
In c re a s e
In c re a s e p a rt
D e v e lo p m e n t
cost9%
B udgetby
50%
L a te b y 8
M o n th s
source: McKinsey & Co.
(RS.12)
Semiconductor Houses…Are Stretched!
❑ Every new standard is getting
more and more complex
●
AMPS->GSM
10x
●
GSM->IS-95CDMA
10x
●
IS-95CDMA->UTRA
10x
❑ The time it takes to design the
new standard-specific silicon
platform is growing
❑ The wireless system becomes a
“commoditized chip” faster
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.13)
So What Types of Chips Bring High Margins?
The Value-Added
T h e V a lu e -A d d C Chain
h a in In S yste mIn
-IC sSystem ICs
12000
10000
R e ve n u e $/w afe r
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
F o u n d ry S e rv ic e s
A S IC
C a ta lo g /C u s to m
S u b -s y s te m S o lu tio n s
P ro d u ct
Source: Dataquest, 1998
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.14)
System-On-A-Chip Design Is Bringing Change
Semiconductor Vendors
System Companies
System Companies
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
Semiconductor Vendor
(RS.15)
The Deconstruction of
The Semiconductor Industry
Phase 1
Full Integration
1960s
Phase 2
Traditional
1970s
Phase 3
Fabless
1980s
Phase 4
Chipless
1990s
Sales & Distribution
Sales & Distribution
Sales & Distribution
Sales & Distribution
Intellectual Property
Intellectual Property
Intellectual Property
Intellectual Property
Fabrication
Fabrication
Fabrication
Fabrication
CAD Tools
CAD Tools
CAD Tools
CAD Tools
Manufacturing Equip
Manufacturing Equip
Manufacturing Equip
Manufacturing Equip
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.16)
Semiconductor IP Industry
❑ A new stage in the evolution of semiconductor industry
●
semiconductor house
●
fabless semiconductor house
●
fabless, chipless semiconductor house= SIP
❑ SIP business model similar to that of software company
❑ Digital SIP companies are establishing the business models
❑ Analog SIP companies are starting up
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.17)
Ingredients for SIP Success
❑ Serving A Unique Need In The Market
●
Need to systematically deal with critical functionality in product
●
System vendors define the need
●
Provide key technology differentiator
❑ Attacking a Large Market
❑ Building Significant Barriers to Entry
●
Unique technology and design methodology
●
Offer a substantially better solution at competitive prices
●
Substantial and growing patent portfolio
❑ Establishing Appropriate Business Models
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.18)
Post-Deconstruction
Service Consumer
Service Consumer
Network Operator
Service Provider
Global Network Operator
Regional Network Operator
Equipment Manufacturer
Equipment Manufacturer
Semiconductor House
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
Tier2/3
Equipment Manufacturer
Semiconductor
IP Provider
System-IC
Semiconductor House
Mega
Semiconductor Foundry
(RS.19)
UMTS
Pico-Cell
BTS
BTS
RAS
RAS
Pico-Cell
Micro-Cell
Mobile Network
B-ISDN, ATM
MTS
MSC /
CSS
IWU
LE
MSCP
Pico-Cell
BTS
Fixed Network
BTS
MSCP
CSS
BTS
RAS
fixed Network: B-ISDN, ATM
MSCP
MSDP
Macro-Cell
MSDP
IWU
LE
PSTN, ISDN, PSPDN
RAS
BTS
Global
Satellite
Suburban
Urban
In-Building
Micro-Cell
Pico-Cell
Macro-Cell
Wired Terminal
W=750g
V=500cc
“Jacket pocket
phone”
700 grams
W=450g
V=330cc
“Real pocket
phone”
W=250g
V=200cc
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
Di g
it al
HP
A n alo
g HP
W=150-200g
V=100-150cc
94
95
96
Information Bit Rate, Mbits/sec
“Briefcase
phone”
100.0
10.0
WLAN
1.0
0.1
CORDLESS
(CT, W-PBX, WLL)
0.01
Office or
Building
Room
Indoors
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
MBS
UMTS
CELLULAR
Stationary
Walking
Vehicle
Outdoors
(RS.20)
Cellular Standards
2G
3G
2.5G
●
GSM
●
GPRS
●
ETSI UTRA
●
DCS1800
●
HCSD
●
ARIB W-CDMA
●
PCS1900
●
IS-95 MDR
●
TIA cdma2000
●
IS-95
●
IS-95 HDR
●
W-TDMA (UWC)
●
IS-54B
●
IS-136 HS
●
IS-136
●
PDC
CIRCUIT
VOICE
NARROWBAND
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
PACKET
DATA
WIDEBAND
(RS.21)
Wireless Hardware Platforms
CMOS Digital Implementation is increasing
DSP
Control Processor
Digital
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
Digital
Hardwired
ASIC
RF
IF
Analog
(RS.22)
Multi-Standard Silicon Architectures
Current product architectures in common use support single
standards -multiple standards, need 3 key issues to be addressed.
Codec
Base Band Processor
VOICE
DSP
Micro
M
E
M
MS
HW
Modem
DATA
Signal Conversion
MBW
ADC
ADC
Radio Transceiver
IF
MF RF
Radio
MBW
DAC
DAC
Single chip
Multi-Standard Baseband
1. Multi-Standard
Digital Modem
2. Multiple-Bandwidth
Signal Conversion
3. Multiple Frequency
Radio Transceiver
All-digital transceiver
capability for multiple
standards and scaleable
data rates.
An ADC/DAC element that
is variable in BW and
resolution allowing support
of multiple standards.
Radio Frequency (RF) section
capable of operating over the
800/900/1800/1900/2000
bands.
Multiple Bandwidth and multiple carrier issues are being supported
BUT, multi-standard receivers and modems are not!
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.23)
System Partitioning Tradeoffs
System tradeoffs in partitioning are based on the following criteria:
Software Instruction Processing
Maximize Flexibility
Minimize Development Time
Minimize Risk
Maximize Design Reuse
Programmable,
low-speed signal
processing and
control functions
Signal
Speech Coding
Encryption
Control
Protocol Stack
User Interface...
FLEXIBLE
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
Signal Processor
“DSP”
Control Processor
Microcontroller
Hardwired Logic Processing
Maximize Speed
Minimize Power Consumption
Minimize Cost
Minimize Size
Memory:
SRAM,
DRAM,
FLASH,
Cache
ROM
Dedicated Logic
typically
Hardwired
Power efficient,
high-speed signal
processing and
fixed algorithms
Signal
High-speed Modulation
Viterbi Decoding
Channel Estimation
Matched Filtering
Synchronization
Deinterleave
Equalization
Encryption
HARDWIRED
(RS.24)
Exploring The Target Architecture Space
uP/DSP
core
bus based
D/A RAM
A/D
P->S
ROM
S->P
uP core
degree of
resource
sharing
SOFTWARE
multiplexor-based
pipeline proc/
parallel HW
ALU
register
operation
HARDWARE
1
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
10
100
multiplexor
1000
No. of clock cycles/
data sample
(RS.25)
A View of Terminal Architecture Today
PDC
memory
Algorithmic
Coprocessors
Algorithmic
Coprocessors
DMA
GSM
uP core
DSP
core
peripherals
ADC/
DAC
IS-95
RF/IF Subsystem
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.26)
A View of Base-Station Architecture
1900 MHz
800 MHz
A
B
A
A
B
Antenna
System
D
B
E
F
C
Antenna
System
RF/IF
RF/IF
Tuner
RF/IF
Tuner
Block-Spectrum
Tuner
Block-Spectrum
A/D
Block-Spectrum
A/D
A/D
RF/IF
RF/IF
multiple sectors
Tuner
RF/IF
Tuner
multi-band
Block-Spectrum
Tuner
Block-Spectrum
A/D
Block-Spectrum
A/D
A/D
multiple sectors
multi-band
HIGH-SPEED DIGITAL BUS
...
Modular/Parameterizable
•per carrier
•per TDMA time-slot
•per CDMA code
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
T1
/E
1
(RS.27)
Base-Station Architecture
Channel
Channel
Cluster
Processor
ChannelCluster
Channel
N
users
N
users
Processor
N users
N users
Combiner
A/D
α
S
I
G
N
A
L
Combiner
β
γ
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
BUS
INTERFACE
CONTROLLER
Cluster
Controller
Channel
Channel
Cluster
Processor
Channel
Channel Cluster
N
users
N
users
Processor
N users
N users
A/D
R
O
U
T
E
R
Combiner
...
...
BUS
INTERFACE
CONTROLLER
T
D
M
Cluster
Controller
B
U
S
Channel
Channel
Cluster
Processor
Channel
Channel
Cluster
N
users
N users
Processor
N users
N users
A/D
...
BUS
INTERFACE
CONTROLLER
Cluster
Controller
(RS.28)
Evolution of Base-Station Architectures
Single channel
Single RF Carrier
RF
Down-conversion
IF Channel
Processing
IQ
Demodulation
A/D
Conversion
Single channel
IF Channel
Filtering
IQ
Demodulation
coprocessors
Single RF Carrier
RF
Down-conversion
A/D
Conversion
A/D
Conversion
DDC
and
Channel
Filtering
coprocessors
IF Channel
Filtering
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
DDC
and
Channel
Filtering
coprocessors
A/D
Conversion
DSP-based
Digital
Modem
Multi channel
Multi RF Carrier
RF
Down-conversion
DSP-based
Digital
Modem
Multi channel
Single RF Carrier
RF
Down-conversion
DSP-based
Digital
Modem
DSP-based
Digital
Modem
(RS.29)
Going Wideband: Shannon vs. Moore
Algorithmic Complexity
(Shannon’s Law)
10000000
1000000
Processor Performance
(Moore’s Law)
100000
10000
1000
100
10
Battery Capacity
20
20
16
20
12
20
08
20
04
20
00
20
96
19
92
19
88
19
19
19
80
84
1
Source: Data compiled from multiple sources (avail on request)
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.30)
Software Radio
Software Radio Is A Collection of Technologies That Enable
Programmable System Architectures for Wireless Networks
❏
RF- Linear wideband multicarrier RF Tx/Rx
❏
MCLPA, WBLNA, mixers
❏ Conversion- Linear wideband high dynamic-range converters
❏
high SFDR, low IMD
❏
High-speed digital bus communication infrastructure
❏
Modular, multi-protocol, multi-channel, multi-data-rate
programmable digital modem processors
❏
per carrier, per time-slot, per code slot
❑ SW programmer’s view of radio signal processing system
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.31)
Features of Software Radios
❑ Offer enhanced capabilities using software-based
processing
●
Flexibility: agility across functions, services, standards
● multimode
● multiband
●
Adaptability: adaptive link control based on channel conditions
● modulation
● reception
● interference-control
❑ Realize these capabilities with a consistent SW
programmer’s model for a terminal
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.32)
Evolution of Soft-Processing
A/D
RF
INNER
RECEIVER
IF
D/A
-Parameter estimation
-Signal detection
OUTER
RECEIVER
-channel
decoder
DATA
INTFC
SOURCE
CODEC
MMI
CONTROL
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.33)
SW Multistandard Solution
Applying instruction-set processor architectures to all
baseband processing would be desireable...
IF
RF
IF
RF
IF
RF
DSP
Control Processor
Programmable
Analog
Viable approach for some 2G systems. Not viable for 2.5 to 3G
systems primarily due to:
-power W/m3
-cost
Not a viable implementation for terminals
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.34)
Digital Signal Processors
❑ Competition has moved on from raw MIPS to architecture
❑ New criteria:
●
the ‘power-dissipation cost” of “computational power”
●
Over the last 7 years, in DSP for wireless, the name of the game was
mA/MOP
●
Today, everyone MUST focus on computational efficiency!
❑ Architecture battles:
●
RISC v CISC
●
DSP v NSP
●
Superscalar v VLIW
❑ Design aiming at optimum speed, not ultimate speed [1]
[1] C.M. Huizer, “Optimized Application of Submicron CMOS for VLSI Logic- A Systems Perspective,” Proc. CICC, 1987.
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.35)
Digital Signal Processor Performance
1 .0 0 0 E + 1 2
1 .0 0 0 E + 1 1
memory
Normalized
processor speed
Transistors/chip
1 .0 0 0 E + 1 0
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 9
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 8
microprocessor/DSP
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 7
100
m e m o ry
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 6
10
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 5
1
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 4
p ro ce sso rs
mA/ MIP
0.1
computational
efficiency
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 3
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 2
0.01
0.001
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 1
1 .0 0 0 E + 0 0
1 3
1960
5
7
9 1970
1 1 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 1980
2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 91990
3 1 3 3 3 5 3 7 3 92000
4 1 4 3 4 5 4 7 4 2010
9 51
Sources: Proc ISSCC, ICSPAT, DAC, DSPWorld
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.36)
HW Multistandard Solutions
The common approach to hardware design involves:
multiple ASIC’s to support each standard.
DSP
Control Processor
Programmable
Digital
Hardwired
ASIC
Digital
Hardwired
ASIC
Digital
Hardwired
ASIC
Unique
Combinations
IF
RF
IF
RF
IF
RF
Analog
Hardwired implementation is not flexible or upgradeable.
Creating new chipsets for every technology combination
critically challenges available industry design resources!
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.37)
And Reconfigurable Systems Are Beginning To
Make Economic Sense…Beyond Prototype
❑ Price, Performance, and Density Trends (eg. FPGA)
Density
Speed
Price
Less than 0.2cents/gate for
10, 000gates by 2000
Over 250,000 gates by 2000
For designs
requiring less than
100,000 gates,
programable logic
will become the
dominant choice
Over 250MHz by 2000
1990
1992
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
1994
1996
1998
2000
Source: Dataquest,(RS.38)
1997
Or Are They?
❑ What has changed:
●
Moore’s Law driven improvements in density, performance, & cost
●
Design software evolving slowly away from ASIC
●
Systems integration
❑ What has not!
●
120 transistors / gate: Ouch!!!!
●
Business model of selling tens to millions!
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.39)
Advances(?) In Reconfigurable Logic
❑ Process
●
Not free anymore.
❑ Circuits
●
Possible increased static power consumption. Possible lower
capacity or higher cost than Moore’s Law would give.
❑ Architecture
●
New architecture needed for speed
❑ Software
●
More problems relegated to CAD tools!
FPGA starting to be used as a process driver!
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.40)
Systematic & Scaleable Design Alternatives
Market Drivers
Finite State
Machine
70’s
1. Size and types of functions growing: Wideband!
2. Harder to differentiate through algorithms
3. Time to market limited by non systematic design
4. Systematic, scaleable design alternative available?
Control Processor
MCU Core
Signal Processor
DSP Core
Memory:
SRAM,
DRAM,
FLASH,
Cache
ROM
Dedicated
System
Logic
On Chip
ASIC
90’s
Dedicated
System
Logic
80’s
Bit Slice
Machine
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
Programmable
Systems On A Chip
(RS.41)
Thank You !
© 1999 Morphics Technology, Inc.
(RS.42)