EC30032/33 FINAL YEAR RESEARCH PROJECT
TITLES 2002/2003
1.
Environmental concern in Norway – the implications of change in the system of interest
representation; from corporatism to policy networks
Helene Amundsen
Norway has been one of the pioneers of environmental policy in Europe. Among other factors this can be
attributed to the corporatist system of interest representation in Norway. The Norwegian system
incorporates business and labour, as well as environmental interests in the policy process. The argument of
this article is that since there arguably has been a change from corporatism to policy networks, there is a
risk of excluding environmental organisations from the policy process. Cohesive policy communities
exclude actors that are in disagreement with its consensus. They are therefore likely to exclude
environmental organisations. As a result of this, Norway’s status as a pioneer could be lost.
2.
An investigation into asymmetric price transmission in European retail gasoline markets
Nicholas Anscombe
This paper adds to the asymmetric price transmission in gasoline markets debate via a comparative study
using weekly data1 for ten European countries. Two methods for detecting asymmetries are used,
Asymmetric Error Correction Models (AECM) and Threshold Autoregressive and Momentum Threshold
Autoregressive (TAR / M-TAR) techniques. The two approaches find varying degree of and evidence for
asymmetric price responses; although both methods find countries such as Germany, the U.K. and Italy
exhibiting asymmetric type price transmission at each stage of the supply chain considered.
3.
What is education for? An exploration into how various actors in the developing world view the
process of education
Steven Arnold
This research project aims to explore the relationship between development and education by looking at the
aims and expectations people have of the educational process. Throughout much development literature,
education is seen as key to development but is not often explained in any great detail. The project looks at
the aims of those being educated, the theorists and those providing the education to give different
perspectives. Special reference is paid to the Millennium Goals and how these tie in other aims in order to
see what problems may arise in the international provision of education. Education is seen by many people
as economically important, as it can enable an individual to find work or be more productive, and at an
international level a more educated workforce has beneficial effects on economic growth rates. The social,
political and cultural effects of education are also important, in various ways. Some aims can be
contradictory, and so it is important to understand the outcomes and processes which lead to different
objectives, especially in the context of budgeting constraints.
4.
An Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Voluntary Fuel Economy Agreements in Reducing CO 2
Emissions from Passenger Cars
Emma Bevis
This paper sets out to evaluate the theoretical and empirical effectiveness of the voluntary fuel economy
agreements between car manufacturers and the European Commission. The paper draws on recent studies
and the authors own empirical work to assess the effectiveness of voluntary agreements used in this context,
as opposed to other methods to incentivise manufacturers to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, with
particular reference to the United Kingdom. A model of the determinants of CO2 emissions is created where
fuel price and Vehicle Excise Duty are not shown to have as significant impacts on emissions as the
changing proportions of diesel and higher powered cars within the fleet. Nevertheless taxation can go a long
way to influencing size and fuel type of vehicle purchased. The paper concludes that the use of voluntary
agreements in this case is wholly applicable and broadly successful in the reduction of passenger car CO 2
emissions.
5.
The ethical dilemma in foreign policy. What are the lessons that can be drawn from New Labour’s
first term in office?
Philip Brabin
The central focus of this essay is to shed light on the ethical dilemma in foreign policy. New Labour’s
‘ethical experience’ has served as an important illustrative aid for discussing how this ‘ethical dilemma’ has
arisen, how in turn it may be resolved and finally how ethical progress may be brought about. Realist and
Idealist notions within International Relations characterise the nature of antithetical claims that have created
an ethical impasse. Realism and Idealism offer little utility for those wishing to move beyond the ethical
dilemma since they each subscribe to notions of objective absolute truth. Dispensing with notions of
objectivity, ethics are contemplated as a social creation rather than being discoverable in the objective sense.
Ethics are acknowledged as playing a circumscribed role in foreign policy, but since Realism and Idealism
are based upon problematic assumptions, pragmatism is put forward as a practical normative guide to ethical
conduct. New Labour’s first term in office is illustrative of an ethical foreign policy in practice and
reinforces earlier conclusions regarding the nature of ethical conduct and the practical concerns that confront
policy makers. A discussion on the lessons that can be drawn from New Labour’s first term in office
reinforces the pragmatist ethos. Conclusions drawn while discussed in the context of New Labour’s ethical
experience offer a wider significance for those wishing to move ethical discussion beyond the current
impasse.
6.
TRANSACTIONAL SEX IN AFRICA: AN EXPRESSION OF WOMEN’S AGENCY?
Sarah Cogan
This study explored the nature and characteristics of transactional sex in Africa and applied it to Molyneux’s
(1985) strategic and practical gender interests in order to answer why women participate. The research
collected was from a number of interviews with girls and women on transactional sex at school and in
refugee camps from articles and reports that are recently emerging as the topic becomes more salient in the
development world. Generally, it was found that women engage in transactional sex for many reasons as
well as gender. It showed how women chose to accept the oppressive patriarchal structures of society,
according to complex issues surrounding their interests. The report therefore concludes that transactional
sex in Africa can be seen as an expression of women’s agency under this qualification.
7.
Impact Assessment and Market Research for Microfinance: what role for loan officers?
Thomas Conlon
Impact assessment and market research are of increasing importance for microfinance institutions seeking to
‘improve’ themselves. In the increasingly competitive world of microfinance, practitioners increasingly
required new, credible and cost effective methods of collecting data for these studies. Loan officers as part
of the institution offer just that. They continually interact with clients as part of their work. Therefore, they
are well placed to collect information (on impact assessment or market research) or feedback (to the
organisation) their perceptions of client opinions on these subjects. This article argues that loan officers
should be more involved in market research and impact assessment activities (particularly using internal
learning) but that their role should be adapted to the organisation and biases in the system.
8.
A critical analysis of Ofgem’s decision to remove the existing price controls from the domestic
electricity market
Hannah Cook
Ofgem’s recent removal of price controls from domestic electricity supply was controversial. This project
examines the decision made by the sector regulator to introduce dramatic changes into the regulatory regime.
Particular emphasis is given to determining the suitability of adoption of the Competition Act 1998 with
regard to the characteristics of the domestic electricity sector. After analysis of the other available options
and an empirical review of prevailing conditions in the domestic electricity market, this project concludes
that the decision made was appropriate. Through the processes of competition and innovation, the new
regime will stimulate benefits for consumers in the future.
9.
Is the foreign exchange market rational?
Edward Dew
This paper examines rational expectations in the context of the foreign exchange market. The empirical tests
are conducted using sterling bilateral exchange rates against four other major currencies. The data is
monthly and covers the period of January 1990 to August 1997. Consensus survey expectations are also
considered for the same currencies and period. There is little evidence of rationality in any of the markets,
but a number of the spot and forward rates considered appear cointergrated. There is significant evidence of
a constant risk premium being the cause of the bias associated with most of the currencies. Other
explanations are discussed, although no firm conclusion can be drawn. These results are broadly consensual
with other recent work.
10. Can an economic theory of Terrorism be constructed? What relevance does this theory have to the
events of September 11th 2001.
Stephen Foster
Studies into terrorism have occurred amongst economists, with papers being produced on the subject by
Sandler, Tschirhart and Cauley (1983), Lee (1988) and W Enders and T Sandlers (1995). These sought to
rationalise terrorists actions by producing an economic theory within which terrorist could be classified and
analysed economically.
Following the September 11th terrorist on America, many sought to classify the reasons behind terrorism in
an attempt to get a better understanding over why terrorist had attacked America. In this dissertation, I am
going to review literature present regarding terrorism, and see if an economic theory of terrorism can be
produced to analyse terrorism in the 21st century. I am going to test these theories against the events of
September 11th 2001 to see if they are relevant and useful in explaining terrorist actions. Further to this, I
am going to explore what motivations are present behind terrorist actions in the 21 st century, and see if these
motivations can be applied to an economic model depicting terrorist actions.
11. ARGENTINA: FROM ‘SUCCESS STORY’ TO FINANCIAL CRISIS
Remy Guijt
Established in 1991, the Currency Board regime that linked the Argentine peso and the US dollar at a one to
one parity, and represented the most important part of the Convertibility Plan, was abandoned in the
beginning of 2002. In a little more than ten years, the Convertibility Plan was able to bring Argentina out of
instability and transform it into one of the most beloved emerging countries of the world. But even if the
fixed exchange rate brought along success, it was also an undeniable reason for the financial crisis.
Financial crisis modelling is still in its early stages, but this paper will adapt these models to the case of
Argentina.
12. An Econometric Analysis of the Linearity of the Phillips Curve and the Stability of the NAIRU in
Four Developed Market Economies
Karen Hayes
This investigation tests the dynamics of the NAIRU model in France, Germany, Japan and the UK. By
extending the linear NAIRU model, to allow for a state-varying trade-off between inflation and
unemployment, the linearity of the Philips curve will be identified. Moreover, a standard restriction test is
carried out to determine whether or not there exists a unique equilibrium value to which unemployment
returns to after a cost shock.
For all countries, the results reject short run asymmetry and the NAIRU model collapses to its original
linear form. With the exception of Germany, NAIRU values can be obtained. Nevertheless, results fail to
provide evidence to suggest that these NAIRU values are unique. Therefore, the NAIRU dynamics can be
rejected under linear and non-linear models of the inflation-unemployment relationship, for the four
developed market economies studied.
13. Religious human capital and religious competition: An analysis of the determinants of religious
participation within the economics of religion
James Knight
Whilst religion has typically been the domain of the other social sciences, the last twenty years have seen
significant developments in its study within economics. Set against the background of Rational Choice
Theory challenging the established Secularisation Thesis in the sociology of religion, this paper evaluates the
concepts of religious human capital (which can be considered to include knowledge of church ritual and
doctrine) and religious competition as key determinants of religious participation. This hypothesis is
empirically tested using the 1998 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) dataset and both religious
human capital and religious competition are found to be significant in determining levels of active
participation; this allows for the suggestion of policy proposals concerning attendance maximisation.
14. An Investigation into the Effectiveness of Equity Style Management
James Larkman
This paper examines the potential for modern computer techniques to enable investors to refine traditional
approaches to equity style management and create portfolios that will generate superior returns in different
states of the market.
The study traces the history of equity style management and examines how the two classic styles of ‘value’
and ‘growth’ investing have been modified over time. It becomes clear, however, that returns achieved are
influenced by many other factors.
The analysis examines extensive data for US corporations with a market capitalisation of more than $500
million from 1.1.1991 to 31.12.2002. Synthetic portfolios are constructed and their performance examined
from different perspectives designed to isolate each of the factors involved.
The results suggested that sophisticated equity styles are little more effective than traditional approaches
unless managed skilfully. The weightings of each stock used within a portfolio are found to be more
significant than expected.
15. 9/11 and all that … Are we Living in a New World?
Hannah Longford
On September 11 2001 many commentators were stating that ‘on this day the world has changed forever’.
This paper examines what changes have occurred and what features of International Relations have
remained constant. To answer to the question ‘how had the world changed?’ I observe increasingly
interconnected relations between the world’s most powerful nations and changes in American Foreign Policy
that have been prompted by the attacks. The paper shows how a War on Terror is a new type of war against
a new type of enemy and will require new tactics in order for the West to claim victory. Only time will tell
whether America the Hegemon will emerge triumphant.
16. “Evaluation of the failure of the 2000 Camp David Peace Proposals: Arafat’s missed chance or the
beginning of a controversy”
Mladen Michel
This study assesses the claim that the failure of the 2000 peace talks in Camp David was the sole
responsibility of the Palestinian Leadership. The investigation is based upon the evaluation of the Israeli and
the Palestinian versions which are then compared to a more objective account of events. The evaluation of
these versions reveals that the Israeli and Palestinian accounts cannot be taken as the most convincing ones,
whilst the more balanced version provides a realistic and credible explanation of the summit’s failure, which
tends to discredit the thesis that Chairman Arafat is fully accountable for the end of the peace process.
Instead, it is argued that all sides, as a result of their different approaches to the negotiations, made a
significant amount of mistakes, which prevented a successful outcome of the peace conference.
17. An investigation into individual preferences for lottery design with application to the United
Kingdom National Lottery
Gethin Musk
The United Kingdom National Lottery (UKNL) has been a feature of British life for nearly ten years. Since
the initial euphoria that surrounded the game began to wane, the operators of the UKNL, Camelot, have
encountered falling sales and low consumer interest in supplementary games.
This paper seeks to discover individual preferences for lottery design, with the intention of ascertaining why
individuals play lottery games. This is done to discover the key variables for consumer demand for lottery
tickets. The paper first seeks to post a consolidation of two schools of thought as to why individuals play the
lottery. The paper proceeds to test key variables in consumer demand for lottery tickets through a preference
ranking experiment.
Conclusions are drawn from this that individuals are unhappy and disillusioned with the current lottery
games in the United Kingdom. Finally, a number of variables are suggested that could be varied to
reinvigorate interest in lottery play.
18. Is a Salary Cap the answer to the financial crisis in English football?
Anthony Pearce
This paper seeks to model the impact of a percentage of income and flat rate salary cap on both the financial
security and competitive balance of the four leagues in English football. This involves investigating both the
competitive balance of English football, and the relationship between pay and performance. The method
created to measure the competitive balance is unique to this paper, as is the model of pay and performance.
Using the results of these two models, this paper investigates the effects of salary capping on past data. The
results are very significant.
19. The Impacts of Microfinance Services on Risks and Vulnerability: Focusing on a Rural Microfinance
Programme in Vietnam
Daniel Pittam
Microfinance is currently being promoted as a primary tool to alleviate poverty but little attention has been
focused on the impact it has on household risk and vulnerability. Poor people live in both risky and highly
vulnerable environments, undergoing regular income shocks/stress events. Microfinance services can
improve the capacity of households to deal with risk by providing additional risk reduction (income
smoothing) and loss management (consumption smoothing) strategies.
Current thinking also suggests that microfinance services cannot help the poorest households, as they tend to
undertake low risk micro enterprises, which in turn provide them with low returns. Case study material will
show that the poorest households can receive significant benefits from microfinance. Fundamental to this
success is the risk attitude of the household and the available loss management strategies households have at
their disposal. Microfinance services provide additional loss management strategies, freeing the household
to invest in riskier, but more profitable enterprises that can help lift them from poverty.
20. What Inferences Can be Drawn From the EU’s Introduction of and Adaptations to GSP since 1971
Regarding the Likely Effects of the Everything But Arms agreement on Least Developed Countries?
Victoria Randell
Tariff preferences have long been used by the European Union to favour exports from particular countries.
The European Union has provided a general System of Preferences for developing countries since 1971. At
the 1996 Singapore WTO meeting Members agreed to improve market access for Least Developed
Countries. In 2001 the European Union launched the Everything But Arms Agreement, offering tariff and
quota free access to all Least Developed Countries for all products except arms and munitions. This paper
uses regression analysis to measure the effect of earlier GSP schemes on Least Developed Countries and
from this derived expectations as to the likely impact of the Everything But Arms agreement on Least
Developed Countries exports to Europe. The findings suggest that the Everything But Arms agreement will
stimulate a significant increase in exports from Least Developed Countries to Europe.
21. The Role and Impact of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in the Russian Transition and the
barriers They Encounter
Aris Samaras
This paper is about small and medium sized enterprises and their role and impact on the Russian transition.
By examining the current trend in SME’s, I am going to investigate if there is a positive correlation between
small and medium sized enterprises and economic growth. Also, I am going to examine the barriers that
have not let the Russian SME sector develop in similar ways to other transition economies, so evaluating if
the recent emphasis on and investment in the SME sector by the World Bank, EU, EBRD and other
development banks and financial institutions is justified.
22. The Rise of the New Radical Right - A Political Opportunity Structure Analysis of the Breakthrough
and Survival of the New Radical Right: A case study of the Norwegian Progress Party
Solveig Sundby
This paper uses a Political Opportunity Structure (POS) framework to analyse the success of the Norwegian
Progress Party. The NPP, which is located on the moderate end of the European New Radical Right, is
today level with the Norwegian Labour party in terms of opinion poll support. This is explained with
reference to the decline of the Old Left-Right axis, which was based on the traditional ProletariatBourgeoisie cleavage; and the dealignment of the electorate along new economic, political and moral default
lines. The survival and legitimisation of the party is further explained by the salience of the issues on which
it campaigns, and by the way in which it has been received by the mainstream parties. The paper concludes
that the structural preconditions are present for the continued existence of a Radical Right in Norway,
however the inherent importance of agency for this party family means its future is never certain.
23. Argentina’s Financial Crisis: an Institutional Perspective
Matthew Tagg
The paper argues that it is institutional deficiencies that have caused economic and political fragility that led
to financial crises in Argentina. The research problem is important because it looks at an institutional
economic perspective, an alternative perspective on the problems that have faced Argentina. New
institutional economics defines institutions as “formal and informal rules and their enforcement mechanisms
that shape the behaviour of individuals and organisations in society” (WB, 1998). A distinction can be made
between formal and informal rules with the former consisting of constitutions, laws, regulations, contracts
and the latter consisting of ethics, trust, religious, percepts and implicit codes of conduct. A key point in the
literature is that these formal and informal institutions limit the choices that are available to a society. In
other words “institutions constitute the incentive structure for the behaviour of organisations and
individuals” (WB, 1998). From this perspective and through the creation of taxonomy this paper provides
an explanation as to why Argentina is characterised by financial instability.
24. An economic analysis of the relationship between productivity market dynamics & the implication
for government policy
Shilen Shah
The project will discuss the interaction between productivity changes and market dynamics, i.e. firm entry
and exit into a market. Theoretical evidence suggests that active markets have the potential of increasing
productivity as new firms enter and existing firms exit. The empirical evidence as seen by a regression of
the UK manufacturing sector and productivity indicates some form of correlation.
The implication for government policy due to the role of market dynamics in productivity growth should be
to ensure that high productive firms have the potential to enter the market with as few barriers as possible.
However, while this role is beneficial to the wider economy, an unwise policy would be to encourage those
mostly likely to fail to enter the market because the cost of failure is high.
25. Examine the Sustainability of Development Based on Foreign Portfolio Investment by Comparing
Taiwan and Thailand
An-Chia Tsia
The reform of the financial system in Taiwan in the 1980s aimed to mobilize the domestic saving to attribute
the industrial transformation from labor-intensive industries towards more capital and technologicalintensive industries. In other words, the development strategy in Taiwan focused on the real sector
development via domestic investment. In contrast, the Thailand development strategy during the 1990s
appeared to heavily stress on the development of financial markets rather than the real sector as the
government hoped to replace Hong Kong as the Asian financial center after the 1997 hand-over. The
massive foreign capital inflow helped to boost the economic development of Thailand during the early
1990s. Yet, the dramatic capital outflow in 1997 also created the financial crisis and output declines to
Thailand. This paper argues that even though it is easier and cheaper to attribute the financial market growth
than the real sector, but with the volatile portfolio investment aside, the fragile financial market development
is arguably a short-term development strategy. Thus, the sustainable economic development is better
attributed through human and physical capital accumulation rather than volatile foreign portfolio investment.
26. DO THE MACROECONOMIC ARGUMENTS SUPPORT EMU EXPANSION?
Jakob Graf von Kalckreuth
“The 1989 social and economic upheavals in Eastern Europe, spelling the capitulation of the totalitarian
socialist regimes, have entered our consciousness as truly historic events.” (Heitiger & Waverman 1993:3).
In the decade that has followed, the picture has become much clearer, and the initial euphoria has been
replaced by more sober assessments of the economic situation. As the republics of Central Europe are
increasingly close to joining the EU with the ultimate aim of EMU membership, it is feared that the negative
aspects of a scenario similar to that of German monetary reunification may arise. However, the outcome of
this ongoing process is still very much open to debate. Overall, this text finds very little evidence EMU
entry would negatively affect either the accession countries or the current EU members.
27. A study of the opportunities and constraints to improved donor aid coordination in Zambia
Brent Walker
The purpose of this dissertation is to identify ways in which the donor community in Zambia can make a
coordinated effort to aid provision. The study will look at ways in which co-ordination can be improved and
the constraints preventing it. Remedies for removing barriers to coordination and ultimately development
will be discussed in depth.
An analysis of theoretical aspects of coordination and cooperation will set the ground for further discussion
of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP’s), Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP’s) and other
coordinating mechanisms. Issues of debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative
and possible avenues for a diversification of the Zambian economy will be presented as having positive
benefits for the country.
28. An analysis of the first Household Satellite Account (UK) and the implications of its application to
India
Andrew Warby
The author has previously worked on the methodology and measurement of the Household Satellite Account
(HHSA), to its release in April 2002. This is a detailed statistical account that measures and values unpaid
home production of goods and serves in an economy. It aims to improve upon the traditional measures of
GDP used for international productivity comparisons and measures of the relationship between market
growth and home production.
This study aims to critically assess the Household Satellite Account (HHSA) and attempts to improve its
methodology, by using the case study of India for comparative analysis. This paper demonstrates that the
application of the HHSA for international comparisons can indicate the real output differences between
countries, but also exposes its weaknesses and the need to add the value of Child labour to the model,
alongside extending the definition of Transport services. The paper contributes such cautionary
recommendations as to improvements in the practical and conceptual areas of the HHSA.
29. How successful has the introduction of income tax self assessment been in tackling non-compliance?
Anthony Woodward
This study aims to determine how successful the introduction of income tax self assessment has been in
improving the levels of compliance of the taxpaying community. From the two variables of Allingham and
Sandmo’s model of non-declaration of tax (probability of detection and level of fine), this study evaluates
compliance results before and after the introduction of ITSA. Probability of detection is evaluated from the
incidence of enquiry work carried out and levels of fine are studied with reference to the penalties involved
for late filling of ITSA returns. The study concludes that whilst, the probabilities of detection have been
increased considerably, concern is rightfully raised about the additional yield from enquiry work. The study
also concludes that for an improved fundamental compliance environment, the Inland Revenue must enforce
greater punishment on taxpayers that fail to submit returns on time.