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TAMPA PREP 2009-2010 IMPACT DEFENSE FILE
Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File ............................................................................................................................................. 1
Notes on the File ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 9
AT: Accidental Launch/Nuclear War ...................................................................................................................................................... 10
AT: Acid Rain .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
AT: Afghanistan ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Ext #1 – Alt Cause ................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
AT: Afghanistan Economy ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
AT: Afghanistan Secession ...................................................................................................................................................................... 15
AT: Afghanistan Spills Over To Pakistan ................................................................................................................................................ 16
AT: African Economies ........................................................................................................................................................................... 17
AT: African Nuclear Wars (Deutch) ........................................................................................................................................................ 18
Ext #1 – Emperically Denied ................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Ext #2 – Don’t Escalate ........................................................................................................................................................................... 20
AT: Agroterror ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
AT: AIDs ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Ext #1 – AIDS will not Cause Extinction ................................................................................................................................................ 23
Ext #2 – AIDS Inevitable ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Ext #4 – No Mutation .............................................................................................................................................................................. 25
AT: AIDS causes Conflict ....................................................................................................................................................................... 26
AT: AIDS Global Spread (Africa Specific) ............................................................................................................................................. 27
AT: AIDS Hurts Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................................ 28
AT: AIDS  Instability (Africa Specific) ............................................................................................................................................... 29
AT: AIDS  National Insecurity ............................................................................................................................................................ 30
AT: Air Polution ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Ext #2 – Quality Improving ..................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Ext #3 – No Impact .................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
AT: Air Power ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Ext #1 – Ground Forces Key ................................................................................................................................................................... 35
AT: Amazon ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 36
AT: Antibiotic Resistance ........................................................................................................................................................................ 37
AT: Arctic War ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
AT: Asian Economies .............................................................................................................................................................................. 39
AT: Australian Prolif ............................................................................................................................................................................... 40
AT: Auto Industry Collapse ..................................................................................................................................................................... 41
AT: Balkan Instability.............................................................................................................................................................................. 42
AT: Biodiversity Impacts ......................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Ext #1: No Extinctions Now .................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Ext #2 – Emperically Denied ................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Ext #3 – Captive Breeding ....................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Ext #4 – Resillience ................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
AT: Biofuels Kill Environment................................................................................................................................................................ 48
AT: Biopower .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
AT: Bioterrorism...................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Ext #1 – No Risk ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Ext #2 – No Extinction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 52
AT: Bioweapons (In General) .................................................................................................................................................................. 53
AT: Bird Flu 1/2 ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
AT: Bird Flu 2/2 ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Ext #1 – Vaccines Solve .......................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Ext #3 – No Mutation .............................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Ext #4 – Mutation Slow ........................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Ext #5 – No Human Spread ..................................................................................................................................................................... 59
AT: Blackouts .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Ext #1 – Not Key to Econ ........................................................................................................................................................................ 61
Ext #2 – Preventable ................................................................................................................................................................................ 62
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Ext #3 – Blackouts are Constructive ........................................................................................................................................................ 63
AT: Brazilian Economy ........................................................................................................................................................................... 64
AT: Business Confidence ........................................................................................................................................................................ 65
AT: California Economy.......................................................................................................................................................................... 66
AT: Caribbean Economies ....................................................................................................................................................................... 67
AT: CCP Collapse ................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
AT: Central Asian War ............................................................................................................................................................................ 69
Ext #1 – No War ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 70
Ext #2 – No Escalation ............................................................................................................................................................................ 71
AT: Civil-Military Relations .................................................................................................................................................................... 72
AT: Chavez .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 73
AT: Chemical Industry Collapse.............................................................................................................................................................. 74
AT: Chemical Terror................................................................................................................................................................................ 75
AT: Chemical Weapons ........................................................................................................................................................................... 76
AT: Child Abuse ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 77
AT: China Agression ............................................................................................................................................................................... 78
AT: China Bashing .................................................................................................................................................................................. 79
AT: Chinese Economy ............................................................................................................................................................................. 80
AT: China India War ............................................................................................................................................................................... 81
AT: China Japan War............................................................................................................................................................................... 82
AT: Chinese Military Modernization ....................................................................................................................................................... 83
AT: China Rise ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 84
Ext #2 – Preaceful Rise ............................................................................................................................................................................ 85
AT: China (Rouge States Impact) ............................................................................................................................................................ 86
AT: Chinese Soft Power .......................................................................................................................................................................... 87
AT: Chinese Start War In Africa ............................................................................................................................................................. 88
AT: China-Taiwan War ........................................................................................................................................................................... 89
AT: Civic Engagement ............................................................................................................................................................................ 90
Ext #1 – Civic Engagement Fails ............................................................................................................................................................. 91
AT: Civilian-Military Relations ............................................................................................................................................................... 92
AT: Competitiveness ............................................................................................................................................................................... 93
AT: Competitiveness Key to Economy.................................................................................................................................................... 94
AT: Competitiveness Key to Heg ............................................................................................................................................................ 95
AT: Coral Reefs ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 96
Ext #1 – Non Unique ............................................................................................................................................................................... 97
Ext #2 – Alt Cause ................................................................................................................................................................................... 98
AT: Cultural Diversity ............................................................................................................................................................................. 99
AT: Customary International Law ......................................................................................................................................................... 100
Ext #1 – ILaw Fails ................................................................................................................................................................................ 101
Ext #4 – Domestic Law Better ............................................................................................................................................................... 102
AT: Cyber Terrorism ............................................................................................................................................................................. 103
AT: Deficit ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 104
AT: Deforestation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 105
Ext #2 – Alt Cause ................................................................................................................................................................................. 106
AT: Dehumanization .............................................................................................................................................................................. 107
Ext #3 – Gov’t = Dehumanizing ............................................................................................................................................................ 108
Ext #4 – War = Dehumanizing .............................................................................................................................................................. 109
AT: Democracies Solve Wars ................................................................................................................................................................ 110
Ext #4 – Transition Wars ....................................................................................................................................................................... 111
AT: Deterrance ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 112
AT: Dirty Bomb ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 113
AT: Diseases  Extinction (Generic) ................................................................................................................................................... 114
Ext #1 – NO Extinction.......................................................................................................................................................................... 115
Ext #1 – No Extinction .......................................................................................................................................................................... 116
AT: Disease Threatens National Security .............................................................................................................................................. 117
AT: Dollar Decline ................................................................................................................................................................................ 118
AT: Dollar Dump ................................................................................................................................................................................... 119
AT: Double Dip Recession .................................................................................................................................................................... 120
AT: Drug Use......................................................................................................................................................................................... 121
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AT: East Asian Arms Race .................................................................................................................................................................... 122
AT: East Asian War ............................................................................................................................................................................... 123
AT: Ebola 1/2......................................................................................................................................................................................... 124
AT: Ebola 2/2......................................................................................................................................................................................... 125
AT: Economy 1/2 ................................................................................................................................................................................... 126
AT: Economy 2/2 ................................................................................................................................................................................... 127
Ext #1 – Econ Resilient.......................................................................................................................................................................... 128
Ext #2 – Doesn’t Cause War .................................................................................................................................................................. 129
Ext #3 and 4 – Safeguards Prevent ........................................................................................................................................................ 130
Ext #5 – U.S. Not Key to Global Econ .................................................................................................................................................. 131
AT: Econ Key to Heg ............................................................................................................................................................................ 132
AT: Ecosystems ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 133
AT: Egyptian Instability 1/2 .................................................................................................................................................................. 134
AT: Egyptian Instability 2/2 .................................................................................................................................................................. 135
AT: Electricity Prices Spikes ................................................................................................................................................................. 136
Ext #1 – No Impact to Economy ............................................................................................................................................................ 137
Ext #2 – Innevitable ............................................................................................................................................................................... 138
AT: Endocrine Disruptions .................................................................................................................................................................... 139
AT: Energy Security .............................................................................................................................................................................. 140
AT: Environmental Leadership .............................................................................................................................................................. 141
AT: Environmental Racism/Justice ....................................................................................................................................................... 142
AT: EU Soft Power ................................................................................................................................................................................ 143
AT: Europe Wars ................................................................................................................................................................................... 144
AT: Failed States ................................................................................................................................................................................... 145
AT: Failed States  Terrorism .............................................................................................................................................................. 146
AT: Failed States  Prolif..................................................................................................................................................................... 147
AT: Failed States  Organized Crime .................................................................................................................................................. 148
AT: Famine ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 149
AT: Federalism ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 150
Ext #1 – N/U (Federalism Down) .......................................................................................................................................................... 151
AT: Federalism (Modeling) ................................................................................................................................................................... 152
AT: Fertilizer ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 153
AT: Flu (The Regular One) .................................................................................................................................................................... 154
AT: Food Price Spikes ........................................................................................................................................................................... 155
Ext #2 – Food Price Increase Innevitable .............................................................................................................................................. 156
AT: Free Trade Impacts ......................................................................................................................................................................... 157
Ext #1 – Doesn’t Decrease Conflict ....................................................................................................................................................... 158
Ext #2 – Trade Inevitable ....................................................................................................................................................................... 159
Ext #3 – No Escalation .......................................................................................................................................................................... 160
AT: Free Trade Solves Interdependance ................................................................................................................................................ 161
AT: Gay Rights (and other Impacts) ...................................................................................................................................................... 162
AT: Genocide ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 163
Ext #2 – Nuclear War ............................................................................................................................................................................ 164
AT: Global Warming Impacts................................................................................................................................................................ 165
Ext #1 – Not Real................................................................................................................................................................................... 166
AT: Global Warming (Coral Reefs) ....................................................................................................................................................... 167
AT: Global Warming (Oceans Scenario) ............................................................................................................................................... 168
AT: Global Warming Causes Wars ....................................................................................................................................................... 169
AT: Greek-Turkish Conflict .................................................................................................................................................................. 170
AT: Grid Terror ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
Ext #1: No Impact .................................................................................................................................................................................. 172
Ext #2 – Solving Now ............................................................................................................................................................................ 173
AT: Grid Terror (EMP) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 174
AT: Grid Terror (Alaskan Pipeline) ....................................................................................................................................................... 175
Ext #2 – Pipeline Safe ............................................................................................................................................................................ 176
AT: Grid Terror (Cyber Terror) ............................................................................................................................................................. 177
AT: Ground Forces (Land Army Heg)................................................................................................................................................... 178
AT: Hegemony ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 179
AT: Honeybees ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 180
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AT: Hunger ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 181
Ext #3 – War  Hunger ........................................................................................................................................................................ 182
AT: Human Rights ................................................................................................................................................................................. 183
AT: Hurricanes Kill Economy ............................................................................................................................................................... 184
AT: Ice Age ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 185
AT: Imperialism ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 186
AT: Indian Economy.............................................................................................................................................................................. 187
AT: India Iran Conflict .......................................................................................................................................................................... 188
AT: Indian Space Race .......................................................................................................................................................................... 189
AT: Indonesian Instability ..................................................................................................................................................................... 190
AT: Indo-Pak War ................................................................................................................................................................................. 191
AT: Industrial Agricutlure ..................................................................................................................................................................... 192
AT: Iran Attacks Israel........................................................................................................................................................................... 193
AT: Iran Blocks Strait of Hormuz .......................................................................................................................................................... 194
AT: Iran – Central Asian Expansion ...................................................................................................................................................... 195
AT: Iran Prolif 1/2 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 196
AT: Iran Prolif 2/2 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 197
Ext #1 – Sanctions Solve ....................................................................................................................................................................... 198
Ext #2 – China ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 199
AT: Iran Strikes (By Israel) ................................................................................................................................................................... 200
AT: Iran Strikes (By the US) ................................................................................................................................................................. 201
Ext #1 – No Strikes ................................................................................................................................................................................ 202
AT: Iraqi Instability ............................................................................................................................................................................... 203
AT: Iraqi Democracy ............................................................................................................................................................................. 204
AT: Israel Wars (From Terrorist Attack) ............................................................................................................................................... 205
AT: Israel Wars (Other Countries)......................................................................................................................................................... 206
AT: Israeli-Palestinian Conflict ............................................................................................................................................................. 207
AT: Israeli-Turkish War ........................................................................................................................................................................ 208
AT: Japanese Economy.......................................................................................................................................................................... 209
AT: Japanese Nationalism ..................................................................................................................................................................... 210
AT: Japanese Rearm .............................................................................................................................................................................. 211
AT: Japanese Soft Power ....................................................................................................................................................................... 212
AT: Japanese-South Korean Relations................................................................................................................................................... 213
AT: Korean Reunification...................................................................................................................................................................... 214
AT: Kuwaiti Economy ........................................................................................................................................................................... 215
AT: Language (K) .................................................................................................................................................................................. 216
AT: Latin American Economies ............................................................................................................................................................ 217
AT: LNG Explosion 1/2......................................................................................................................................................................... 218
AT: LNG Explosion 2/2......................................................................................................................................................................... 219
AT: LNG Terror..................................................................................................................................................................................... 220
AT: Malaria............................................................................................................................................................................................ 221
Ext #1 – Vaccines Solve ........................................................................................................................................................................ 222
AT: Malnutrition .................................................................................................................................................................................... 223
AT: Mexico Collapse ............................................................................................................................................................................. 224
Ext #1 – Drug Wars ............................................................................................................................................................................... 225
AT: Mexico Drug Wars ......................................................................................................................................................................... 226
AT: Middle East Instability ................................................................................................................................................................... 227
AT: Middle East Wars ........................................................................................................................................................................... 228
AT: Military Budget .............................................................................................................................................................................. 229
AT: Military Education .......................................................................................................................................................................... 230
AT: Military Morale .............................................................................................................................................................................. 231
AT: Military Overstretch ....................................................................................................................................................................... 232
AT: Military Quality .............................................................................................................................................................................. 233
AT: Military Recruitment ...................................................................................................................................................................... 234
AT: Monoculture ................................................................................................................................................................................... 235
Ext #2 – Alt Cause ................................................................................................................................................................................. 236
AT: Nanotech ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 237
AT: Narcoterror ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 238
AT: NATO ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 239
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Ext #1 – NATO Not Key ....................................................................................................................................................................... 240
AT: Natural Gas Price Spikes ................................................................................................................................................................ 241
AT: North Korea Aggression ................................................................................................................................................................. 242
AT: North Korea-South Korea War ....................................................................................................................................................... 243
AT: North Korea Prolif .......................................................................................................................................................................... 244
AT: Nuclear Radiation ........................................................................................................................................................................... 245
AT: Nuclear Reactor Meltdowns ........................................................................................................................................................... 246
Ext #1 – Reactors Safe ........................................................................................................................................................................... 247
Ext #2 – No Probability ......................................................................................................................................................................... 248
AT: Nuclear Terrorism .......................................................................................................................................................................... 249
Ext #1 – No Risk .................................................................................................................................................................................... 250
Ext #2 – No Tech ................................................................................................................................................................................... 251
AT: Nuclear War  Extinction ............................................................................................................................................................. 252
AT: Nuclear Waste ................................................................................................................................................................................ 253
AT: Obesity............................................................................................................................................................................................ 254
Ext #3 – Obesity Doesn’t Kill ................................................................................................................................................................ 255
AT: Oceans ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 256
Ext #1 – Resilient ................................................................................................................................................................................... 257
Ext #3 – Alt Causes ............................................................................................................................................................................... 258
AT: Oil Dependency .............................................................................................................................................................................. 259
Ext #1 – No War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 260
AT: Oil Dependence (Terrorism Impact) ............................................................................................................................................... 261
AT: Oil Peak .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 262
Ext #1 – Oil Companies Lie ................................................................................................................................................................... 263
Ext #2 – Oil is Still There ...................................................................................................................................................................... 264
Ext #3 – Timeframe ............................................................................................................................................................................... 265
Ext #4 – Reserves .................................................................................................................................................................................. 266
AT: Oil Shocks ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 267
Ext #1 – Oil Shocks Gradual ................................................................................................................................................................. 268
AT: Organized Crime ............................................................................................................................................................................ 269
Ext #2 – Move to Other Crimes ............................................................................................................................................................. 270
AT: Overfishing ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 271
Ext #2 – Subsidies.................................................................................................................................................................................. 272
AT: Overpopulation Impacts ................................................................................................................................................................. 273
AT: Oxygen ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 274
AT: OZONE Depletion .......................................................................................................................................................................... 275
Ext #1 – Ozone Holes Shrinking............................................................................................................................................................ 276
AT: Pakistani Economy ......................................................................................................................................................................... 277
AT: Pakistan Gives Nukes to Terrorists................................................................................................................................................. 278
AT: Pakistani Instability ........................................................................................................................................................................ 279
AT: Pakistani Loose Nukes ................................................................................................................................................................... 280
AT: Palestinian Collapse ........................................................................................................................................................................ 281
AT: Patriarchy Impacts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 282
AT: Patriarchy  War ........................................................................................................................................................................... 283
AT: Pesticides ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 284
AT: Phytoplankton ................................................................................................................................................................................. 285
AT: Pollution ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 286
AT: Port Terror ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 287
AT: Positive Peace ................................................................................................................................................................................. 288
AT: Post Traumatic Stress Disorder ...................................................................................................................................................... 289
AT: Poverty (Gilligan) ........................................................................................................................................................................... 290
AT: Poverty (Global) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 291
AT: Poverty (Moral Ob.)(Nuclear War Outweighs) 1/2 ........................................................................................................................ 292
AT: Poverty (Moral Ob.)(Nuclear War Outweighs) 2/2 ........................................................................................................................ 293
AT: Poverty (U.S.) ................................................................................................................................................................................. 294
Ext #1 – Rate Flawed ............................................................................................................................................................................. 295
Ext #2 – Poverty Down .......................................................................................................................................................................... 296
Ext #3 – Material Conditions Improving ............................................................................................................................................... 297
AT: Poverty  Terrorism ...................................................................................................................................................................... 298
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AT: Proliferation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 299
AT: Protectionism .................................................................................................................................................................................. 300
AT: Quebec Secession ........................................................................................................................................................................... 301
AT: Racism ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 302
Ext #1 – Root Cause .............................................................................................................................................................................. 303
Ext #2 – No Global Spillover................................................................................................................................................................. 304
Ext #4 – Racism Declining .................................................................................................................................................................... 305
Ext #5 – Capitalism................................................................................................................................................................................ 306
AT: Railroads ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 307
AT: Rape ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 308
AT: Readiness ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 309
Ext #1 – DADT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 310
Ext #3 - Retention Solves Readiness ..................................................................................................................................................... 311
AT: Resource Wars 1/2 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 312
AT: Resource Wars 2/2 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 313
Ext #1 – No Conflict .............................................................................................................................................................................. 314
Ext #2 – Global Inequalities .................................................................................................................................................................. 315
Ext #3 – Corruption ............................................................................................................................................................................... 316
AT: RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs) ........................................................................................................................................... 317
Ext #4 – RMA Fails ............................................................................................................................................................................... 318
AT: Russian Accidental Launch ............................................................................................................................................................ 319
AT: Russian Agression in the Caspian................................................................................................................................................... 320
AT: Russia-China War ........................................................................................................................................................................... 321
AT: Russian Civil War........................................................................................................................................................................... 322
AT: Russian Economy ........................................................................................................................................................................... 323
AT: Russian Expansionism .................................................................................................................................................................... 324
AT: Russian Loose Nukes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 325
AT: Russian Nationalism ....................................................................................................................................................................... 326
AT: SARS .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 327
AT: Saudi Arabian Instability ................................................................................................................................................................ 328
AT: Saudi Arabian Prolif ....................................................................................................................................................................... 329
AT: Science Diplomacy ......................................................................................................................................................................... 330
AT: Secession ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 331
Ext #1 – Don’t Want It........................................................................................................................................................................... 332
AT: Single Species Collapse .................................................................................................................................................................. 333
AT: Small Businesses ............................................................................................................................................................................ 334
AT: Smallpox ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 335
AT: Soft Power ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 336
Ext #1 – Obama Solves .......................................................................................................................................................................... 337
Ext #2 – Alt Cause ................................................................................................................................................................................. 338
Ext #3 – Hard Power Key ...................................................................................................................................................................... 339
AT: Soil Erosion 1/2 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 340
AT: Soil Erosion 2/2 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 341
Ext #2 – Erosion Decreasing .................................................................................................................................................................. 342
AT: South Asian Prolif .......................................................................................................................................................................... 343
AT: South China Sea War...................................................................................................................................................................... 344
AT: South Korean Diplomacy ............................................................................................................................................................... 345
AT: South Korean Econ ......................................................................................................................................................................... 346
AT: South Korea Prolif .......................................................................................................................................................................... 347
AT: Space Colonization ......................................................................................................................................................................... 348
AT: Space Junk ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 349
AT: Space Militarization........................................................................................................................................................................ 350
AT: Spratly Islands ................................................................................................................................................................................ 351
Ext #3 – Agreements .............................................................................................................................................................................. 352
Ext #4 – No Excalation .......................................................................................................................................................................... 353
AT: Sprawl ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 354
AT: Sri Lankan Economy ...................................................................................................................................................................... 355
AT: State Economies/Budgets ............................................................................................................................................................... 356
AT: Steel Industry .................................................................................................................................................................................. 357
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AT: Superbugs ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 358
AT: Swine Flu 1/2 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 359
AT: Swine Flu 2/2 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 360
AT: Syrian WMD Use ........................................................................................................................................................................... 361
AT: Taiwanese Prolif ............................................................................................................................................................................. 362
AT: Taliban ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 363
AT: Tar Sands ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 364
AT: Teen Pregnancy .............................................................................................................................................................................. 365
AT: Terrorism – Generic 1/2 ................................................................................................................................................................. 366
AT: Terrorism – Generic 2/2 ................................................................................................................................................................. 367
Ext #1 – Terrorism Declining ................................................................................................................................................................ 368
Ext #3 – No Attack ................................................................................................................................................................................ 369
Ext #4 – Terror Exaggerated .................................................................................................................................................................. 370
Ext #5 – No Money ................................................................................................................................................................................ 371
AT: Terrorism – Economic Fallout ........................................................................................................................................................ 372
AT: Terrorism – U.S. Lashout ............................................................................................................................................................... 373
AT: Tuberculosis ................................................................................................................................................................................... 374
AT: Turkish Economy ........................................................................................................................................................................... 375
AT: Turkish Loose Nukes ...................................................................................................................................................................... 376
AT: Turkish PKK Conflict ..................................................................................................................................................................... 377
AT: Turkish Prolif ................................................................................................................................................................................. 378
AT: Ukrainian Economy ........................................................................................................................................................................ 379
AT: U.N. Credibility .............................................................................................................................................................................. 380
AT: U.S. Australian Relations ............................................................................................................................................................... 381
AT: U.S. Brazil Relations ...................................................................................................................................................................... 382
AT: U.S. Canada Relations .................................................................................................................................................................... 383
AT: U.S. China Relations ...................................................................................................................................................................... 384
Ext #1 – Relations High ......................................................................................................................................................................... 385
AT: U.S. China War............................................................................................................................................................................... 386
Ext #1 – Not a Threat ............................................................................................................................................................................. 387
Ext #1 – Not A Threat............................................................................................................................................................................ 388
Ext #3 – No Taiwan Conflict ................................................................................................................................................................. 389
AT: U.S. Civil War ................................................................................................................................................................................ 390
AT: U.S. E.U. Relations......................................................................................................................................................................... 391
AT: U.S. India Relations ........................................................................................................................................................................ 392
AT: U.S. Iraqi Relations ........................................................................................................................................................................ 393
AT: U.S. Japanese Relations .................................................................................................................................................................. 394
AT: U.S. Kuwait Relations .................................................................................................................................................................... 395
AT: U.S. Mexican Relations .................................................................................................................................................................. 396
AT: U.S. North Korea War .................................................................................................................................................................... 397
Ext #3 – No China ................................................................................................................................................................................. 398
AT: U.S. Pakistani Relations ................................................................................................................................................................. 399
AT: U.S. Qatari Relations ...................................................................................................................................................................... 400
AT: U.S. Russian Relations ................................................................................................................................................................... 401
AT: U.S. Russia War ............................................................................................................................................................................. 402
Ext #2 – No War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 403
AT: U.S. Saudi Relations ....................................................................................................................................................................... 404
AT: U.S. South Korean Relations .......................................................................................................................................................... 405
AT: U.S. Turkish Relations ................................................................................................................................................................... 406
AT: Water Polution ................................................................................................................................................................................ 407
Ext – Alt Cause ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 408
Ext – Alt Cause ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 409
AT: Water Terror ................................................................................................................................................................................... 410
AT: Water Wars 1/2 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 411
AT: Water Wars 2/2 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 412
Ext #1 – No Link to Conflict ................................................................................................................................................................. 413
Ext #2 – Cooperation ............................................................................................................................................................................. 414
Ext #4 – Wars too Costly ....................................................................................................................................................................... 415
Ext #5 – No Escalation .......................................................................................................................................................................... 416
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AT: WTO ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 417
Ext #1 – WTO Fails ............................................................................................................................................................................... 418
AT: Yucca Mountain ............................................................................................................................................................................. 419
AT: Zoonotic Diseases ........................................................................................................................................................................... 420
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NOTES ON THE FILE
The purpose of this file is so that we can control the impacts read in any given round. While it’s true in many cases that the
1AC will probably outweigh the disad simply because the 1AC has more impacts, it’s always a safer bet if the DA doesn’t have
an impact at all, or vice versa when you’re neg, you will probably want to mitigate the impacts of the aff’s advantages.
This is updated from the file that was put together at the beginning of the year and has an index based off of the index for
Emory’s impact file, courtesy of William Rains. It is alphabetized, to make things easy to find, and you might just want to read
through the index so that you know what impact answers you have.
Note: this file is large and cumbersome, and it might be to each team’s individual advantage to make their own condensed
version of this file for their own use of impact that they want, and then print that, keeping the rest on computer to both save
paper, and increase organization, in fact, if I were you, I would choose my 31 favorite impacts and put them into a file, and
then expando it.
For that matter, this is what I would take:
1. Accidental Launch
12. Heg
2. AIDS
13. Human Rights
3. Biodiversity
14. Indo-Pak War
4. Bioterror
15. Iran Prolif
5. Competitiveness
16. Mexico Collapse
6. Deficits
17. Middle East War
7. Democracy
18. Oil Peak
8. Disease Spread
19. Overpopulation
9. Economy
20. Patriarchy
10. Free Trade
21. Poverty
11. Global Warming
22. Prolif
23. Racism
24. Soft Power
25. State Budgets
26. Swine Flu
27. Terrorism (put nuclear terror in the same pocket)
28. U.S. China War
29. U.S. North Korea War
30. U.S. Russian War
31. WTO
Anyway, enjoy and take out some impacts!
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AT: ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH/NUCLEAR WAR
1. No risk of accidental/unauthorized war.
Dr. Leonid Ryabikhin, General (Ret.) Viktor Koltunov and Dr. Eugene Miasnikov, June 2009. Senior Fellow at the EastWest
Institute; Deputy Director, Institute for Strategic Stability of Rosatom; and Senior Research Scientist, Centre for Arms Control,
Energy, and Environmental Studies, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. “De-alerting: Decreasing the Operational
Readiness of Strategic Nuclear Forces,” Discussion paper presented at the seminar on “Re-framing De Alert: Decreasing the
Operational Readiness of Nuclear Weapons Systems in the U.S.-Russia Context,”
www.ewi.info/system/files/RyabikhinKoltunovMiasnikov.pdf.
Analysis of the above arguments shows, that they do not have solid grounds. Today Russian and U.S. ICBMs are not targeted at any
state. High alert status of the Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear forces has not been an obstacle for building a strategic partnership.
The issue of the possibility of an “accidental” nuclear war itself is hypothetical. Both states have developed and implemented
constructive organizational and technical measures that practically exclude launches resulting from unauthorized action of personnel
or terrorists. Nuclear weapons are maintained under very strict system of control that excludes any accidental or unauthorized use and
guarantees that these weapons can only be used provided that there is an appropriate authorization by the national leadership. Besides
that it should be mentioned that even the Soviet Union and the United States had taken important bilateral steps toward decreasing the
risk of accidental nuclear conflict. Direct emergency telephone “red line” has been established between the White House and the
Kremlin in 1963. In 1971 the USSR and USA signed the Agreement on Measures to Reduce the Nuclear War Threat. This Agreement
established the actions of each side in case of even a hypothetical accidental missile launch and it contains the requirements for the
owner of the launched missile to deactivate and eliminate the missile. Both the Soviet Union and the United States have developed
proper measures to observe the agreed requirements.
2. Unpredictable timeframe – accidental launch might not happen for years – it might never happen – prefer our impacts
3. No need to de-alert --- systems stable.
William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger et al, 2009. Former Secretary of Defense, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor at
Stanford University, senior fellow at FSI and serves as co-director of the Preventive Defense Project, and former Secretary of Defense,
Secretary of Energy and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Counselor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
lecturer @ SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, PhD International Relations @ UPenn. “America’s Strategic Posture,” Report of the
Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf.
The second is de-alerting. Some in the arms control community have pressed enthusiastically for new types of agreements that take
U.S. and Rus- sian forces off of so-called “hair trigger” alert. This is simply an erroneous characterization of the issue. The alert
postures of both countries are in fact highly stable. They are subject to multiple layers of control, ensuring clear civilian and indeed
presidential decision-making. The proper focus really should be on increasing the decision time and information available to the U.S.
president—and also to the Russian president—before he might autho- rize a retaliatory strike. There were a number of incidents
during the Cold War when we or the Russians received misleading indications that could have triggered an accidental nuclear war.
With the greatly reduced tensions of today, such risks now seem relatively low. The obvious way to further reduce such risks is to
increase decision time for the two presidents. The President should ask the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command to give him an
analysis of factors affecting the decision time available to him as well as recommendations on how to avoid being put in a position
where he has to make hasty decisions. It is important that any changes in the decision process preserve and indeed enhance crisis
stability.
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AT: ACID RAIN
The most comprehensive studies prove that the harmful effects of acid rain are myths.
Doug Bandow, 1998. Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and worked with the Natural Resources and Environment Cabinet Council
while a Special Assistant to President Reagan. “Environmentalism: The Triumph of Politics,” Action Institute,
http://www.acton.org/publications/randl/rl_article_271.php.
Politicians are also remarkably vulnerable to scaremongering by special-interest groups and activists. One apocalyptic vision is Acid
Rain. In 1980 the Environmental Protection Agency claimed that Sulfur Dioxide emissions caused Acid Rain, which had supposedly
increased the average acidity of Northeast lakes one-hundred-fold over the last forty years and was killing fish and trees alike. A year
later the National Research Council predicted that the number of acidified lakes would double by 1990. So, naturally, Congress
included stringent provisions to cut so2 emissions (already down 50 percent from the 1970s) at a cost of billions of dollars annually
when it reauthorized the Clean Air Act. Yet in 1987, epa research raised doubts about the destructiveness of acid rain. Then came the
most complete study of Acid Rain ever conducted, the half billion dollar National Acid Precipitation Assessment Project (napap),
which concluded that the allegedly horrific effects of Acid Rain were largely a myth.
Studies that conclude that acid rain is dangerous are biased.
National Center, 8/20/1996. “Myths and Facts About the Environment -- Part IV: Acid Rain,” National Center for Public Policy
Research, http://www.nationalcenter.org/tp25.htm.
Myth: Data taken by proponents of the acid rain theory is accurate and conclusive. Fact: Proponents of the acid rain theory have rested
their claims on a deeply flawed series of articles by G.E. Likens and his co-workers in the 1970s. A careful evaluation of Likens'
research conducted by a group of scientists at Environmental Research and Technology, Inc., reveals that his data collection and
selection was deliberately biased to support the desired conclusions.
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AT: AFGHANISTAN
1. Afghanistan collapse inevitable --- corruption, ineffective police, lack of intel sharing
United Nations 10/14/08 US Fed News, “Build on Positive Trends to Reverse Deteriorating Situation in Afghanistan,” Lexis, 10/14/08
ZALMAY KHALILZAD (United States) said that, in order for UNAMA to implement its revised mandate and face the new challenges,
his country supported an immediate surge in the Mission's capabilities based on the proposals made by the Special Representative. The United
States was gravely concerned about humanitarian conditions as many lives were in jeopardy, both from food shortages and cold weather.
Planning for winter should aim to help Afghans deal with both, and the United States, as the largest donor, was prepared to do more. He said the security
situation had become more challenging as the Taliban and their allies continued to wage deadly attacks on military and civilian targets.
Success in the fight against them could be achieved, despite recent doom-and-gloom talk. Success required that the Government implement its National
Development Strategy and improve local governance, combat corruption, reform its police forces and increase its counternarcotics efforts, among other things. The United States welcomed the fact that Afghan security forces were taking on increasing responsibility for
protecting the people. The 2009 elections were very important and it was therefore imperative that the international community redouble efforts to ensure
they were credible. The United States called on the Afghan Government to hold the elections as scheduled. Underscoring the importance of the role of neighbouring
countries, he said the new Government in Pakistan offered an opportunity to battle regional terrorism. That should mean, among other things,
an end to sanctuaries for hostile forces, the use of terrorism for national interests, and increased intelligence sharing and reconciliation, all of which were
necessities for stability and development. Both Afghans and Pakistanis needed international support to resist terrorist efforts , and the United States urged
the Secretariat to ensure that the Special Representative had the support and means needed to carry out his mission. Expressing his deep regret for the accidental loss of civilian lives, he said
he shared the Secretary-General's grave concern about civilian casualties. The United States would do everything in its power to ensure that ISAF and Operation Enduring Freedom prevented
civilian casualties and acknowledged them when they occurred. However, the
fundamental cause of the casualties was the fight waged by the Taliban, who
used civilians as shields and were increasingly resorting to asymmetric attacks against population centres. There was a need for better
coordination, and the United States chain of command had been streamlined. More forces would be sent to Afghanistan.
2. No impact – failure empirically doesn’t cause conflict – post 9/11 invasion proves
3. No escalation – Afghan neighbors have power to contain war
BBC Monitoring South Asia, 2009, bbc is a credible news network, BBC Monitoring South Asia, “Paper says neighbors can end
Afghanistan War,” December 19 2009, lexis.
One of the issues related to the war in Afghanistan has been the role of Afghanistan's neighbours in this war and effects of their
policies on war and political processes related to war in Afghanistan. It has been believed that if Afghanistan's neighbours do not
support the war, it cannot last long. Taking this belief into consideration, it has been argued on many occasions that Afghanistan's
neighbours especially Pakistan have not had a genuine interest in ending this war. Although Pakistan has constantly spoken about its
cooperation with the government of Afghanistan and the international community for peace and stability in Afghanistan, Pakistani
claims have not been believed. US Commander in the Middle East and Central Asia, General David Petraeus, recently asked Pakistan
to put pressure on Taleban on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This demonstrates that the international community is not
convinced that Pakistan has changed its policy on extremist groups in the region. Although Pakistan is at war with local Taleban in
that country, it has a different policy on Afghan Taleban and does not want pressure on this group. Another country that can play an
important role in the war in Afghanistan is Russia. NATO secretary general recently asked [Dmitry] Medvedev Wednesday last week
to play a bigger role in supporting NATO troops in Afghanistan by dedicating more helicopters to these forces. It was reported some
time ago that NATO forces have shown interest in using Russian made helicopters in their war in Afghanistan. Reports explained that
NATO forces want to use Russian helicopters in Afghanistan because they are more suitable to Afghan terrain and climate and can be
more effective in peace operations. Meanwhile, there are reports that Taleban are receiving Iranian weapons. According to
Commander of US forces in Middle East and Central Asia, General David Petraeus, that these weapons are supplied to Taleban
mainly in Western border areas between Afghanistan and Iran. Previously, such reports were unofficially discussed and even the
Taleban were quoted as confirming these reports about their access to Iranian weapons. The Iranian government, however, has
repeatedly rejected these reports and claims. Taking the negative relations between Iran and the United States into consideration, a
number of political analysts believe that American military presence in Afghanistan has raised serious concerns for Iran. Therefore,
Iran will do favours to the Taleban. These reports demonstrate that the negative role of Afghanistan's neighbours in the war in
Afghanistan and their lack of support political process for peace and development in Afghanistan have resulted in the failure to
achieve the desired results in this country despite spending heavy sums of money and investing human capital in Afghanistan for eight
years. Efforts should therefore be made to ensure that these countries change their policies on Afghanistan and play a positive role in
the political processes initiated by the government in this country. Experts believe that this can be possible only when Afghanistan's
government is able to establish close relations with countries neighbouring Afghanistan and close to Afghanistan and if Afghanistan
can convince them that a strong central government in Afghanistan will not pose any problems to those countries.
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EXT #1 – ALT CAUSE
Lots more alt causes-A. Drug trade
Seth G. Jones, Fellow at the RAND Corporation and Adjunct Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown, “Averting Failure in Afghanistan” Survival March 2006
The cultivation of opium poppy also undermines security because insurgent groups profit from the drug trade.18 Indeed, the drug trade
is a source of revenue for warlords, insurgents and criminal organisations in control of Afghanistan's border regions, as well as for
members of the Afghan government.19 This strengthens the power of non-state actors at the expense of the central government.
The cultivation of opium poppy has markedly increased since reconstruction efforts began in 2002. Poppy cultivation rose from 74,045 hectares in
2002 to 131,000 hectares in 2004, and then dipped slightly to 104,000 in 2005. The income of Afghan opium farmers and traffickers is equivalent to roughly 40% of the gross domestic product
of the country, which includes both licit and illicit activity. Afghanistan's share of opium production is also 87% of the world total. The number of provinces where opium poppy is cultivated
increased from 18 in 1999 to all 32 in 2005.20
B. Lack of a criminal justice system
Seth G. Jones, Fellow at the RAND Corporation and Adjunct Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown, “Averting Failure in Afghanistan” Survival March 2006
Finally, the absence of a viable criminal justice system has made it difficult to ensure security. World Bank data indicate that
Afghanistan is in the bottom 1% of countries worldwide in the effectiveness of its rule of law.21 There have been several barriers to
improving the justice sector. First, the central government's inability to exert control over the country affects justice sector reform.
Warlord commanders, who maintain de facto control over areas seized following the overthrow of the Taliban, have established authority
over some local courts. Factional control of courts has led to intimidation of centrally appointed judges. Secondly, the government's inability
and unwillingness to address widespread and deep-rooted corruption reduces the effectiveness of the justice system. Corruption is
endemic, partly because unqualified personnel loyal to various factions are sometimes installed as court officials. The Supreme Court and
Attorney General's Office have been accused of significant corruption.22 A corrupt judiciary is a serious impediment to
Afghanistan's ability to establish security and a viable rule of law, since it cripples the legal and institutional mechanisms designed
to curb corruption.
C. Afghanistan failure inevitable---demographics and lack of women’s rights
Potts 09 – UC Berkeley professor, chairman of the university's Bixby Center for Population, Health and Sustainability
(Malcolm, 8/23. “The war for Afghanistan's women.” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-potts23-2009aug23,0,3722899.story)
There are two wars going on in Afghanistan. One is to defeat the Taliban, and that war is not going well. The other is to liberate
women, and that war has hardly begun. If the first war is won but the second is lost, Afghanistan will turn into a failed state -- a
caldron of violence and misery, home to extremism and totally outside the Western orbit of influence . Last week's election, however imperfect,
is welcome, but it means little as long as women remain enslaved in this patriarchal, tradition-bound culture. In most of the country, a woman needs her husband's
permission to leave her home. Domestic violence is tragically common. Indeed, the government elected in 2004 passed, and President Hamid Karzai signed into law,
legislation legalizing marital rape. Older men use their wealth and power to marry young women. In April, according to news reports, when a teenage Afghan girl called Gulsima eloped with a boy her
own age instead of marrying an older man, she and the boyfriend were shot to death in front of the mosque in the southwest province of Nimrod. Currently, Afghanistan is one of the worst places in
the world to be a woman, and -- as is the case everywhere women's rights are nonexistent or in decline -- the birthrate is high. Afghan women have an average of about seven children, and the
population has been doubling about every 20 years. Today it is 34 million. According to U.N. estimates, by 2050 it could reach a staggering 90 million. That rapid population growth and the
demographics that go with it drive most of Afghanistan's worst problems. All too often, demography is overlooked in developing countries, as I experienced in 2002 when I
wrote the budgets for a U.N. agency working to rebuild Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. Part of our job was to write a 10-year financial plan. As my colleague from the World Bank was closing his computer, I said,
"You do realize in 10 years' time there will be almost 50% more people needing healthcare?" He hadn't. After an expletive and some more hitting of computer keys, the budget totals rose considerably. I made my first visit to
slowing population growth was a prerequisite for feeding Afghanistan, for its socioeconomic progress
and for any shred of hope for a stable democracy. One result of rapid population growth is that two-thirds of the Afghan population is
below the age of 25. The primary role models for the volatile, testosterone-filled young men in this group are local warlords. The reason Al
Qaeda and Osama bin Laden (who, incidentally, is the 17th child of a man who had 54 children) have found a haven in Afghanistan is largely because of the
mixture of loyalty and anger generated among males in such a society, in which there are no genuine economic opportunities for
advancement. The word "taliban" means "student." The men who condemned Gulsima and her young boyfriend were probably 18 or 19 years old. So in a country where women have had their fingers cut off because
Afghanistan in 1969. Even then it was clear that
they painted their nails, where the Taliban threw acid on girls trying to go to school, is there any possibility of improving the status of women? Yes. When Karzai signed the law demeaning and controlling women, he did so
as an ugly deal to buy the support of the very traditional Shiite minority in the west of the country. But linguistically, culturally and religiously, this population is simply an extension of eastern Iran. And Iran happens to be a
powerful example of how family planning can liberate women and change a society for the better. In the 1980s, the typical Iranian woman had almost as many children as her counterpart in Afghanistan today. Even an oilrich country could not support that rate of population growth. The Koran mentions contraception in a positive light, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the religious leader and founder of Iran's Islamic Republic, endorsed
family planning. Iran began to offer a full range of contraceptive choices and even voluntary sterilization. Before young couples could marry, they were required to receive family-planning instruction. The typical Iranian
woman now has 2.1 children. The transition in Iran from high to low birthrates was as rapid as that in China, but without a one-child policy, and it has had similar social benefits. Maternal and infant mortality have fallen, and,
despite repressive politics, the U.N. Human Development Index, using such measures as education and individual wealth, shows that the country is better off. How would this translate to Afghanistan, which is far behind Iran
in so many ways? From my experience, I know that teenage girls in Afghanistan want to be in school, despite the cultural obstacles. And having seen firsthand Afghan women suffering from botched abortions, I am sure
some, at least, want fewer children. In addition, Westerners are training female health workers. Private pharmacies often dispense drugs smuggled from neighboring countries. It would be possible to introduce contraceptives,
A stable, modern and functioning Afghanistan is the West's goal. But it is not worth risking the death of one more
American or British soldier fighting there unless there is a bold, achievable plan to educate women, enhance their autonomy and meet
their need for family planning. This feudal, fundamentalist, warrior society will never join the 21st century -- or even the 16th century -unless we win the war to liberate women. Unless women are given the freedom to choose whether or when to have a child, by 2050 there will be millions more angry
men age 15 to 25 in Afghanistan. If only a tiny percentage are potential insurgents or suicide bombers, no Western army, however
large and however strongly backed at home, has the slightest chance of prevailing.
even in remote areas.
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AT: AFGHANISTAN ECONOMY
Long timeframe --- best case scenario for big growth is 10 years
Seema Patel, consultant for the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at CSIS, leading an evaluation study of reconstruction efforts,
“Breaking Point: Measuring Progress in Afghanistan” CSIS 2-23-2007
(http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/070223_breakingpoint.pdf)
Even with full international support and sound policies and programs, Afghanistan in 10 years will likely still be a poor and
underdeveloped country. Sustained growth in the economy and trade will not provide enough jobs and steady income for Afghan
families. The central government will struggle to retain legitimacy, to collect revenues for the sustenance of its military and
bureaucracy, to eliminate corruption, to deliver social and judicial services, and to extend its presence to the whole country. Pockets of
territory will remain or fall under the influence of local strongmen, and Afghans will rely on local and tribal institutions to fill the
vacuums left by the state. Historical social divisions between tribes, ethnicities, and regions will persist, and populations will remain
isolated from one another and from the center. Neighbors will meddle in Afghanistan’s domestic economy and politics.
Substantial economic growth impossible --- Afghanistan’s too weak
Peter Bergen, Professor at Johns Hopkins, Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, , “Afghanistan Outlook” FNS,
Congressional Testimony Before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2-15-2007
But I think the overarching point is Afghanistan is a classic sort of glass half empty, half full problem, but the (train ride ?) is
definitely going down. And I think we also have to say what a success in Afghanistan -- Afghanistan is never going to become
Belgium. It's going to be a poor, weak, fragile state for the foreseeable future. But it's one where security can be improved and it's
one where the economy can be slightly improved. And I am optimistic about those things, and we need some of the things that
President Bush is talking about today. I think they'll play in quite well with that.
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AT: AFGHANISTAN SECESSION
No Risk of Pashtun secession- they’re too weak
NightWatch, 2010, a member of the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association (AFCEA), NightWatch,
“NightWatch for June 21,” June 21, 2010, http://www.kforcegov.com/NightWatch/NightWatch_10000182.aspx
Internal instability, however, always is centripetal. Since the Pashtuns are not fighting to secede, they must capture Kabul if they hope
to return to government for all Afghanistan. Otherwise they fail, remaining a chronic, but not terminal, security problem. At this point,
they are unable to capture Kabul or to hold territory against NATO. The scale of violence has increased but control of the land has not
changed much, based on open source reporting.
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AT: AFGHANISTAN SPILLS OVER TO PAKISTAN
No spillover from Afghanistan to Pakistan – Pakistan already maintains ties
Tiedemann 9 (KATHERINE TIEDEMANN 09 policy analyst in the Counterterrorism Strategy Initiative specializing in
Afghanistan and Pakistan, “Withdrawal without winning”
http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/14/withdrawal_without_winning)
A second argument, made most recently by Frederick Kagan inthe September 5-6 Wall Street Journal, is that, to quote from its
headline, "A stable Pakistan needs a stable Afghanistan." But does it really? Are there reasonable prospects for a stable
Afghanistan over the next decade no matter what we do? Isn't there a good argument that part of the problem in Pakistan stems
from our continued presence in Afghanistan? We are told that bases in Pakistan are used to support the insurgents in Afghanistan,
while simultaneously being told that it is the fighting in Afghanistan that is endangering Pakistan. Reciprocal causation is certainly
possible, but this modern version of the turbulent frontier doctrine is not backed by solid logic. Pakistan's ISI and army clearly maintain ties
to the Taliban in Afghanistan, and although they cannot exert anything like complete control, once the danger of a Taliban defeat
by the U.S. passes they would have every incentive to reign in their clients. Furthermore, the stability of Pakistan does not depend
on pacifying the tribal areas. While the recent efforts by Pakistan to regain control of some of its territory may owe something to
our combating the Taliban, I wonder if the effect is a large one. In parallel, it can be argued that we gain general influence over
Pakistan by fighting i n Afghanistan, but here not only the magnitude of the effect but its sign is open to question.
Afghan instability won’t affect Pakistan—Pakistani affairs will be affected by internal forces
Pillar, PhD, CIA retiree, 2009 [Paul, “Counterterrorism and Stability in Afghanistan,” 10-14,
cpass.georgetown.edu/documents/AfghanHASCPillarOct09_1.doc]
The possible connection of events in Afghanistan to Pakistan has, of course, become a major part of debate on U.S. policy toward
Afghanistan. Although influencing developments in Pakistan is not why we intervened in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s importance
requires that the connections, if any, be addressed. Two questions must be asked. One is how much effect anything happening in
Afghanistan is likely to have on the politics and stability of Pakistan. There is a tendency to think of such questions in spatial
terms, with visions of malevolent influences suffusing across international boundaries like a contagious disease. But the future of
Pakistan will be influenced far more by forces within Pakistan itself. Those forces include the inclinations of the Pakistani population and the will
and capabilities of the Pakistani military, which is by far the strongest—in several senses of the term—institution in Pakistan. Pakistan has more than five times the
population of Afghanistan and an economy ten times as large. Pakistani policymakers and the Pakistani military have a keen interest in
Afghanistan, partly because of concerns about Pashtun nationalism and mostly as a side theater in their rivalry with India. But
events inside Afghanistan will not be decisive, or anything close to it, in shaping Pakistan’s future. The other question is exactly
what sort of influence, for good or for ill, events in Afghanistan are likely to have on Pakistan even if that influence is marginal
rather than decisive. Again, the spatial model of spreading instability tends to dominate thinking, but it is unclear exactly how the model would
materialize in practice. Establishment of a hostile regime on one’s borders (and we should note that Islamabad’s relations with the current
Afghan government of Hamid Karzai have been anything but cordial) may weaken one’s own internal stability if it offers substantial new
resources to an internal opposition or provides a base of operations that the opposition previously lacked. But even establishment
of an Afghan Taliban state or proto-state would not do these things to Pakistan. Even if the Afghan Taliban —who have been
beneficiaries more than enemies of the Pakistani government—decided to turn their attention away from consolidating domestic power to try to
stoke an Islamist fire in Pakistan, they would have few additional resources to offer . And the Pakistani Taliban already have bases of
operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which appear as part of Pakistan on maps but which Islamabad has never effectively controlled. In the
meantime, an expanded U.S.-led counterinsurgency in Afghanistan is more likely to complicate than to alleviate the task of
Pakistani security forces, insofar as it pushes additional militants across the Durand line. A larger U.S. military presence in the
immediate region also would make it politically more difficult for the Pakistani government to cooperate openly on security
matters with the United States, in the face of widespread negative sentiment inside Pakistan regarding that presence.
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AT: AFRICAN ECONOMIES
African economies are resilient --- many conflict states prove
Hawkins 04 Tony Hawkins, University of Pretoria, Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Zimbabwe Economy: Domestic and
Regional Implications,” Lexis, 4/1/04
Since the launch of president Robert Mugabe's 'fast-track' land resettlement programme in early 2000 there have been numerous
forecasts of the imminent collapse of the Zimbabwe economy. Nearly five years on (June 2004), although it is the world's fastestshrinking economy, it remains remarkably resilient--a testament to the old adage that African economies do not collapse, but simply
fade away into informality and subsistence. That, certainly, was the lesson of conflict economies like Angola and the DRC.
African economies are resilient --- reforms solve
Africa News 99 “Africa At Large: Treasury's Schuerch Discusses Africa Debt Policy,” Lexis, 4/15/99
Mr. Chairman, I would like to take a moment to review the sub-Saharan Africa economic position. I would say that here we can find
cause for both encouragement and concern. The immediate road ahead presents a formidable challenge and we need to see a sharp
reversal in many trends if positive growth is to be sustained. Africa remains the most protectionist region in the world. In many
cases, the process of fundamental reform has just begun. Low investment is a chronic problem, with investment rates still only about
18 percent compared to 25 percent in low-income countries on average. The re- emergence of conflict has been devastating. Some 20
percent of Africans live in countries formally at war or disrupted by war, according to World Bank estimates. Corruption is a serious
economic cost -- an area where the World Bank is making a strong push. †††But some underlying trends are the basis for optimism.
There has been significant progress in improving social indicators such as education and infant mortality. While there was some
weakening in overall economic performance in 1998, it reflected primarily declines in prices of key commodities, including oil,
cocoa, and copper, and economic crises in many of Africa's Asian markets. But overall, given the events and forces which have
buffeted African economies in the last two years, economic growth proved surprisingly resilient. We believe this resilience reflects
the level of basic and continuing economic reform in many countries -- including gains in fiscal stability, decontrol of prices, and
liberalization of exchange rates.
Alt caus – corruption and rule of law
Africa News in ‘7 (“Nigeria; Health Workers Are Under Pressure -- Comrade Wabba”, 11-10, L/N)
As a result of this "neo-liberal reform" which was implemented by the immediate past president of Nigeria, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo
there have been serious deformities in the healthcare sector, the union boss said. The union boss also lamented that thousands of
workers who were retrenched were not paid their severance package up to this moment in the health parastatals. The theme of this
year's conference "towards a new agenda of quality healthcare delivery in Nigeria" is aimed at setting a new target for the health
workers, to meet the challenges ahead. The conference which has in attendance healthcare service workers' union from West Africa
sub-region is also taking stock of the performance of the workers in healthcare delivery in the region. The union boss who also
attributed corruption and disobedience to rule of law by health workers as the major cause of mass poverty and diseases in the subaregion also stressed the need for a safe workplace for health workers and professionals in Nigeria and African sub-region.
Poverty is decreasing
Zambia Daily Mail, 9 – 3 – 08
(BBC Monitoring Africa – Political, “World Bank urges Zambians, media to ensure good governance”, L/N)
Meanwhile, the World Bank says that poverty in Africa has reduced even though the reduction was not much. Mr Bruce, however,
pointed out that African countries were reducing poverty faster than what was being seen in south Asia. "There is hope for Africa and
with so many countries growing at above five per cent, with or without natural resources, the prospects are good," he said.
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AT: AFRICAN NUCLEAR WARS (DEUTCH)
1. War in the Congo disproves your impact—it drew in all regional powers and international interests—didn’t go nuclear or
escalate
Porteous 04 (Tom, London director of Human Rights Watch and syndicated columnist, writer and analyst who has worked for the
BBC and the U.K. Foreign & Commonwealth Office, October. “Resolving African Conflicts.” http://www.crimesofwar.org/africamag/afr_01_porteos.html)
If a storm can be described as perfect, then the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) in the second half of the
1990s was the “perfect war”. Precipitated by the 1994 genocide in Rwanda and the fall of the West’s client kleptocrat, President
Mobutu, and his rotten state, the war in DR Congo was dubbed Africa’s First World War. It directly involved the armed forces of six
neighbouring states. It drew in factions and rebel groups from other African wars, the remnant armies of defunct neighbouring
regimes, and the usual crowd of international profiteers, would-be peacemakers and humanitarians. It was closely connected with
armed conflicts in several neighbouring countries, including those in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Central African Republic, Congo Brazzaville, and Angola.
According to one estimate published in 2003 the war may directly and indirectly have caused the deaths of over 4 million people in DR Congo since 1996. As has
become increasingly common in Africa the victims were almost all civilians. The war in DR Congo was but one demonstration of the emptiness of the promises of a
post Cold War political and economic renaissance for Africa. There was, it is true, the remarkable transition from apartheid to majority rule in South Africa in 1994.
There were also instances of handover to multiparty civilian rule in former one-party or military-ruled states like Ghana, Tanzania, Senegal, Mali, Zambia, Malawi, and
even Nigeria. But by the end of the 1990s, any political and economic progress since the end of the Cold War had been overshadowed by
a series of old and new wars that now engulfed many parts of the continent and were tipping whole regions further into instability and
poverty.
2. African wars don’t escalate—this postdates Douche and is more qualified
Porteous 04 (Tom, London director of Human Rights Watch and syndicated columnist, writer and analyst who has worked for the
BBC and the U.K. Foreign & Commonwealth Office, October. “Resolving African Conflicts.” http://www.crimesofwar.org/africamag/afr_01_porteos.html)
It would be futile to search for a single explanation for what appears for now to be a trend towards the resolution of African conflicts.
Africa’s wars are as heterogeneous as its many nations and communities. The reasons why Angola’s conflict came to end are quite
different from the reasons why the belligerents in Sudan’s civil war have been willing to engage seriously in peace talks. However
some of the successes of the past three years can be attributed in part to a mixture of fatigue on the part of those fighting African wars
and to the fact that both Africans and non-Africans are learning lessons from the many failures of the past fifteen years, are coming up
with more creative proposals and solutions to tackle the problem of conflict, and are readier to take risks in implementing them.
Although the details vary widely from conflict to conflict, the basic ingredients of resolution remain the same – a combination of
military, diplomatic, humanitarian, and economic action delivered by a more or less complex coalition of local, regional and
international actors.
3. No escalation – the Cold War is over
Cilliers, 2k - Institute for Security Studies (Jackie, “International Policies, African Realities”, 3/18,
http://www.africaaction.org/rtable/cil0003.htm)
During the Cold War regional conflicts were at once internationalised and subsumed within the superpower competition and
controlled to avoid escalation into nuclear conflict. In the process the strategic relevance of regions such as Africa was elevated as part
of the global chess board - pawns in a much larger game. At the beginning of the twenty first century the situation is much changed.
Africa has lost its strategic relevance. Apart from humanitarian concerns, only selected areas with exploitable natural resources
demand the attention of the larger and more powerful countries. A blurring in the clear demarcation of roles between sub-regional, regional and
international organisations - the UN in particular has occurred after the end of the Cold War. During the bi-polar era, the division of labour was clear. The UN mounted
peacekeeping operations and deployed political missions, while regional organisations concentrated on preventive diplomacy. The proliferation of internal conflicts
after the fall of the Berlin Wall has confounded this clear division. Almost as if to mirror this trend, the increase in the number and the nature of the various actors
involved in internal conflicts have further complicated the ability of state-centred negotiations and mediation to succeed. Direct conflict between African
states has, in fact, been a relatively isolated phenomenon and those that have taken place have not involved any substantial
commitment of resources for peacekeeping operations. Virtually all African conflicts that have involved some type of peacekeeping effort have been
conflicts within states. An important reason for this feature is the permeability of African borders and the weakness of African states themselves. This does not deny the
fact that virtually all of these internal conflicts have had a regional dimension. In many cases neighbouring countries have involved themselves in the internal affairs of
others or allowed their territory to be used as a springboard for such involvement. In others countries do not control their own territory and cannot end cross-border
actions, particularly when international boundaries cut through rather than follow broad ethnic and tribal divides. Globally a new security paradigm seems to
be emerging. This consists of regions accepting co-responsibility and sharing the burden to police themselves and a dilution of the central
role that many had hoped that the United Nations would play in this regard. This agenda is primarily, but not exclusively, driven by the United States that is seeking cooption and burden sharing by others in the hegemonic role that the demise of the Soviet Union had thrust upon it.
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EXT #1 – EMPERICALLY DENIED
Wars across Africa have had all the characteristics that should have triggered Deutsch—denies the impact
Porteous 04 (Tom, London director of Human Rights Watch and syndicated columnist, writer and analyst who has worked for the
BBC and the U.K. Foreign & Commonwealth Office, October. “Resolving African Conflicts.” http://www.crimesofwar.org/africamag/afr_01_porteos.html)
In West Africa another regional complex of conflicts, also driven by greed and political disintegration, was in full swing. The late
1990s saw the culmination of the diamond and corruption fuelled rebellion in Sierra Leone that had been going on for a decade. At the
start of 2000 a recently signed peace agreement in Sierra Leone was on the brink of failure. Guinea was in danger of being dragged
into the conflict. Liberia, nominally at peace after its own war in the first half of the decade but little more than a façade of a state
benefiting no one but its gangster-like regime, was still fomenting conflict in all of its neighbours (Sierra Leone, Guinea and Côte
D’Ivoire) and was itself edging towards a renewed civil war. Côte D’Ivoire too, once a beacon of prosperity and stability, was
increasingly beset by its own internal political troubles that were to develop into armed conflict in 2002. Nigeria, the regional
hegemon, was ruled for most of the 1990s by a repressive and corrupt military regime which thrived in part on fomenting ethnic and
religious tensions. In the Horn of Africa, Somalia was still without a central government almost a decade after the fall of the last one
(the Siad Barre regime which had been backed and armed alternately by both sides in the Cold War). The vacuum of state authority in
Somalia left the country in a state of low level conflict and chronic economic weakness, on the one hand vulnerable to external
interference and on the other a source of regional instability. To the north of Somalia, border skirmishes between Ethiopia and Eritrea
developed into full scale war in 1999. Meanwhile in Sudan, the second phase of the post independence rebellion was well into its
second decade and there were no signs of resolution. One peace initiative after another had failed. At the other end of the continent, in
Angola, another war that had in an earlier phase been fomented by Cold War rivalry was still raging. Now deprived of their
superpower sponsorship, but aided by international businesses which continued to buy the Angolans’ oil and diamonds and sell them
weapons, the leaders of both sides (MPLA government and UNITA rebels) were plundering the country to support their war efforts
and to fill their foreign bank accounts. In a country fabulously rich in natural resources, including agriculture, the majority of the
peasant population were living in desperate poverty, many of them living on food handouts from the international humanitarian relief
system. Africa’s wars in the 1990s were all very different in their specifics. But they shared a number of important characteristics.
First, one of the main underlying causes of these wars was the weakness, the corruption, the high level of militarization, and in some
cases the complete collapse, of the states involved. Secondly, they all involved multiple belligerents fighting for a multiplicity of often
shifting economic and political motivations. Thirdly, they all had serious regional dimensions and regional implications. And fourthly
they were all remarkable for the brutality of the tactics (ranging from mass murder and ethnic cleansing, to amputation, starvation,
forced labour, rape and cannibalism) used by belligerents to secure their strategic objectives.
Existing conflicts should have trigged the impact
The New Times 08 (8/29, Africa News, “Rwanda; PM Encourages EASBIRG States to Contribute Funds,” Lexis.)
Makuza reiterated the need for a speedy establishment of the Standby Brigade because of several conflicts in the region that have
hampered development. "The Eastern Africa region is one that has been plagued with conflicts and calamities. Existing conflicts
such as those in the Horn of Africa, Darfur, the presence of threats to Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi in Eastern Congo are clear
examples of the need to have a robust peace and security mechanism," said the Premier. The director of the EASBRIG Coordination
Mechanism (EASBRICOM), Simon Mulongo, said that so far, the organization has finalized an eight objective strategic plan which
include elaboration on the structures and processes that can support the full range of the standby force. "Also incorporated in the plan
is the development of a force support system capable of sustaining regional capabilities," said Mulongo, who heads the Nairobi-based
EASBRICOM. Earlier in the week, he had informed the meeting that brought together Chiefs of Defence Staff that the operational
exercise of the force will be conducted in November this year. Rwanda has already made available one battalion as her contribution to
the brigade.
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EXT #2 – DON’T ESCALATE
No escalation—U.N., African initiatives, great power incentives for cooperation
Porteous 04 (Tom, London director of Human Rights Watch and syndicated columnist, writer and analyst who has worked for the
BBC and the U.K. Foreign & Commonwealth Office, October. “Resolving African Conflicts.” http://www.crimesofwar.org/africamag/afr_01_porteos.html)
At the UN, following the publication of a hard hitting report2 in 2000 on UN peacekeeping operations, there has been significant
improvement in planning and capacity at the Department for Peacekeeping Operations. There also appears to be a new readiness on
the part of the Security Council (which prior to the Iraq crisis devoted a majority of its time to deliberating about conflicts in Africa) to
equip UN missions in Africa and elsewhere with the mandate and capacity to do their job (once the UN operation in Liberia is fully
deployed, the three largest UN peacekeeping operations in the world will all be in Africa). Crucially there is also now a UN Security
Council acknowledgement of the imperative to incorporate the protection of civilians into the mandates of UN and other peace support
operations. Other UN mechanisms have also been deployed to help nudge African conflicts towards resolution including special
panels to monitor sanctions in Angola, Liberia and Somalia, a special panel monitoring the links between conflict and the exploitation
of resources in DR Congo, international war crimes tribunals for Rwanda and Sierra Leone and the establishment of a special UN
office headed by a senior official to examine the many regional dimensions of conflict in West Africa. In Africa itself, there is a new
recognition among leaders like South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki, Senegal’s Abdoulaye Wade, Ghana’s John Kuffuor, Nigeria’s Olusegun
Obasanjo, and the new Chairman of the African Union (AU), Alpha Omar Konare, of the negative impact of Africa’s wars on the
prospects for the whole continent and a determination that Africans themselves should play a more active and creative role in ending
wars. As usual there is a lot of rhetoric. But there is some substance too. The new mood (symbolised by Mbeki’s ambitious blueprint
for an African renaissance, the New Partnership for African Development3) has been translated into some successful African peace
initiatives on the ground (e.g. in Burundi and DR Congo) and into a programme to reform Africa’s own regional security
communities4 and to increase Africa’s own peacekeeping capacity. Among the big Western powers, particularly the US, the French
and the UK, there has been a greater engagement on Africa at a higher political level and a greater willingness to bury past differences
on Africa and co-operate. This has been in part because of a real sense of guilt at the failure of the West to prevent or halt the genocide
in Rwanda in 1994. But it is also because of a new post 9/11 consensus in the West that, quite apart from humanitarian concerns, there
are compelling strategic reasons (oil, Islam and terrorism) for preventing Africa from slipping further into poverty and conflict. In
policy terms these factors have led to greater support for Africa’s own efforts to deal with conflict, support for beefed up UN
operations and, when all else fails, a greater preparedness to commit Western troops in response to African crises.
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AT: AGROTERROR
1. No FMD attack – lacks shock value, terrorists prefer spectaculars
Seebeck 07 – Professor of Complex Systems Anaylsis @ Queensland University of Technology [Lesley Seebeck (Ph.D from the
School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, Queensland University), “Responding to Systemic Crisis: The Case of
Agroterrorism,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 30, Issue 8 August 2007, pages 691 – 721]
With high target vulnerability and ease of access to resources, the key question is one of intent: a judgment concerning the achievement of political coercion. Of itself, it's
not likely
that an FMD attack would be an effective means of coercion—certainly AQ and others have not been attracted to strictly
infrastructure attacks in Western nations. That an agroterrorist attack lacks the shock value of immediate and bloody human
carnage could prove the best defense against such a possibility. Still, other factors need to be considered where AQ—and its subsidiaries—are concerned. AQ
has established itself as favoring “spectaculars,” which it achieves through leveraging organization, local cells with local knowledge, and using the everyday in an
innovative fashion. Although the pressures of the global war on terror have led AQ and its subsidiaries to focus on more limited tactical strikes, AQ by nature is adaptive,112 and should the
opportunity arise is likely to seek more adventurous operations. In judging the attractiveness of FMD as a terrorist tool, one needs to consider organization, coordination, and escalation. For
example, an FMD attack may be synchronized with multiple point sources, synchronized with other forms of attack, or signaling intent to escalate.
2. No military retaliation
A. No perceived as a proportional response
Chalk 04 - Analyst at RAND specializing in international terrorism and emerging threats.
[Peter Chalk, Hitting America’s Soft Underbelly: The Potential
Threat of Deliberate Biological Attacks Against the U.S. Agricultural and Food Industry, RAND Corporation]
In addition, the mechanics and potential impact of agroterrorism give this type of aggression a sizable payoff in the form of extortion and blackmail. Unlike with human-directed biological
threats, terrorists could firmly establish the credibility of their intention to carry out a bio-assault by proceeding with an attack, safe in the knowledge that they are unlikely to elicit massive
destroying cattle en masse would not elicit the same sort
of institutional counterterrorist response as would killing thousands of civilians with the plague or anthrax. Moreover, given
the potential immediate and latent damage that could be inflicted by repeated attacks, both state and federal governments
would have a strong incentive to negotiate with the terrorists. Pg. 27
retaliation from a government that feels all limits on coercive counteraction have been lifted. Certainly,
B. Public anxiety prevents
Huddy et al. 05 – Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY [Leonie Huddy, Stanley Feldman
(Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY), Charles Taber (Professor of political science @ Stony
Brook University, Stony Brook, NY) & Gallya Lahav (Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY),
“Threat, Anxiety, and Support of Antiterrorism Policies,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 49, No. 3, July 2005, Pp. 593–
608]
The findings from this study lend further insight into the future trajectory of support for antiterrorism measures in the United States when we
consider the potential effects of anxiety. Security threats in this and other studies increase support for military action (Jentleson 1992; Jentleson and Britton 1998;Herrmann,Tetlock, and Visser
1999). But anxious
respondents were less supportive of belligerent military action against terrorists, suggesting an important source of
opposition to military intervention. In the aftermath of 9/11, several factors were consistently related to heightened levels of anxiety
and related psychological reactions, including living close to the attack sites (Galea et al. 2002; Piotrkowski and Brannen 2002; Silver et al. 2002), and knowing someone who was hurt or
killed in the attacks (in this study). It is difficult to say what might happen if the United States were attacked again in the near future. Based on our results,
it is plausible that a future
threat or actual attack directed at a different geographic region would broaden the number of individuals directly affected by terrorism
and concomitantly raise levels of anxiety. This could, in turn, lower support for overseas military action . In contrast, in the absence of any
additional attacks levels of anxiety are likely to decline slowly over time (we observed a slow decline in this study), weakening opposition to future overseas military action. Since our
conclusions are based on analysis of reactions to a single event in a country that has rarely felt the effects of foreign terrorism, we should consider whether they can be generalized to reactions
to other terrorist incidents or to reactions under conditions of sustained terrorist action. Our answer is a tentative yes, although there is no conclusive evidence on this point as yet. Some of our
findings corroborate evidence from Israel, a country that has prolonged experience with terrorism. For example, Israeli researchers find that perceived risk leads to increased vilification of a
threatening group and support for belligerent action (Arian 1989; Bar-Tal and Labin 2001). There is also evidence that Israelis experienced fear during the Gulf War, especially in Tel Aviv
where scud missiles were aimed (Arian and Gordon 1993). What is missing, however, is any evidence that anxiety tends to undercut support for belligerent antiterrorism measures under
conditions of sustained threat. For the most part, Israeli research has not examined the distinct political effects of anxiety. In conclusion, the findings from this study provide significant new
Many terrorism researchers have speculated that acts of
terrorist violence can arouse fear and anxiety in a targeted population, which lead to alienation and social and political dislocation.8 We have clear evidence that
the September 11 attacks did induce anxiety in a sizeable minority of Americans. And these emotions were strongly associated with symptoms of
depression, appeared to inhibit learning about world events, and weakened support foroverseas military action. This contrasted, however, with Americans’ dominant
reaction, which was a heightened concern about future terrorist attacks in the United States that galvanized support for government antiterrorist policy. In this sense, the 9/11 terrorists
failed to arouse sufficient levels of anxiety to counteract Americans’ basic desire to strike back in order to increase future national security, even if such action increased the
shortterm risk of terrorism at home. Possible future acts of terrorism, or a different enemy, however, could change the fine balance between a public attuned to
future risks and one dominated by anxiety. Pg. 605-606
evidence on the political effects of terrorism and psychological reactions to external threat more generally.
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AT: AIDS
1. HIV is not capable of wiping out the world’s population – science and history prove
Caldwell, 03 George, PhD in Biology and Political Science, http://www.foundation.bw/TheEndOfTheWorld.htm
Disease could wipe out mankind.[sic] It is clear that HIV/AIDS will not accomplish this – it is not even having a significant impact
on slowing the population explosion in Africa, where prevalence rates reach over thirty percent in some countries. But a real killer
plague could certainly wipe out mankind. The interesting thing about plagues, however, is that they never seem to kill everyone –
historically, the mortality rate is never 100 per cent (from disease alone). Based on historical evidence, it would appear that, while
plagues may certainly reduce human population, they are not likely to wipe it out entirely. This notwithstanding, the gross
intermingling of human beings and other species that accompanies globalization nevertheless increases the likelihood of global
diseases to high levels.
2. They have zero internal links about solving globally – even if they protect one critical area there is no evidence that
medicine would be distributed globally – the problem lies within poverty and lack of education and access
3. Their statistics are horrendously inaccurate
The Nation (Nairobi), Wandera Ojanji, Africa News, November 16, 2000
Statistics quoted by most development agencies suggest millions of Kenyans are sick and dying. Expert opinion is questioning the
authenticity of these figures. About thirty per cent of all Kenyans (8.4 million) are infected with tuberculosis, with about 16,700 dying every year. Seventy per cent or 20 million
are exposed to malaria every year with 26,000 children below five years dying every year (or 72 children a day). More than 2.2 million Kenyans are infected with HIV,
with 240,000 dying every year from Aids Between 20 and 30 per cent of Kenyans are either suffering from typhoid or are carriers of the disease, of which a third (over
1.9million) eventually die even after seeking medical treatment. The figures are far much above the official figures given by the Central Bureau of
Statistics (CBS). Take for instance Aids. According to the estimates, it is said to be killing 182,500 people annually. The total reported deaths, from
all causes, by CBS were 185,576 in 1997 and 221,543 in 1998. Consequently this would mean only about 3000 people died from other causes than
Aids in 1997. The head of Health Information Systems at the Ministry of Health Mr. Godfrey M Baltazar says of the quoted HIV/Aids cases:
"These estimates are subject to wide margins of error. They are based on blood samples taken from pregnant women attending antenatal
clinics in a few sentinel sites, all of which are in urban areas and assumed to be representative of the entire Kenyan population, which they
are not. Their extrapolation to non-pregnant women, males and the rural population are based on assumptions which have little
empirical foundation." Until mid this year, Mr. Baltazar was an epidemiological officer at National Aids and STI Control Council ( NASCOP) . He argued that in the absence
of a population or community survey, these figures cannot be accepted as credible. Kenya has not done any . "Such surveys are very critical as this
is the only way to validate the data." Health statistics estimated are mainly done by the WHO. It is said that after the ministry forwards the figures to WHO. The latter
will then subject the data to farther mathematical processes, apparently to take care of the 'low under- reporting rates' of government agencies. This has in the past created
glaring discrepancies between government figures and those floated by private or non- governmental agencies. This argument is strongly
supported by Prof Charles Geshekter of California State University, USA who accuses the players for deliberately adopting very misleading ways of determining HIV cases in Africa that
generate very wrong and scary figures. In
Africa, the Western public officials determine the presence of Aids based on a set of symptoms rather
than on the confirmation by blood testing, the standards used in America and Europe. In Africa, Aids is defined, according to WHO, as a combination of
fever, persistent cough, diarrhoea and a 10 per cent loss of body weight. "It is impossible to distinguish these common symptoms from
those of malaria, TB or the indigenous diseases of the impoverished lands." argues Geshekter
4. No mutation – it’s not likely and viral mutations always short-circuit
Bernard Fields, M.D., Adele Lehman Professor and Chairman of the Department of Microbiology & Molecular Genetics at Harvard
Medical School, “Emerging Viruses,” edited by Stephen S. Morse, 19 93
I think the answer has to lie in the fact that there is an enormous difference in the selective pressures faced by a virus growing in the
relatively undemanding environment of cell culture, which illustrates the capacity of a virus to change, and life in the real world,
where the virus must survive in a specific environment and as well as within a host, providing the virus with a series of constraints and
selective pressures (Tyler and Fields, 1991). When the virus enters a host, there are a series of sequential steps within the host, each of
which places further constraints on the virus (Sharpe and Fields, 1985). Because of these constraints, at many points in the life cycle
of the virus, much of the potential of the virus to change results in viruses that cannot survive since it will be missing critical
properties. We are dealing with a constantly shifting interaction between the virus in the host and its own intrinsic capacity to change.
The viral lifestyle thus places constraints and selective pressures on viral evolution. This lifestyle involves infecting host cells, then
using the viral genetic information to direct cellular machinery to make viral products. Unlike other organisms, viruses reproduce
themselves or make viral products only when a host cell can do this for them under the genetic control of the virus. Because of this,
the host-virus interaction is key to many aspects of viral disease.
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EXT #1 – AIDS WILL NOT CAUSE EXTINCTION
No extinction – drugs are getting stronger
Andrew Sullivan, editor of The New Republic, Love Undetectable, 1998, p.8
You could see it in the papers. Almost overnight, toward the end of 1996, the obituary pages in the gay press began to dwindle. Soon
after, the official statistics followed. Within a year, AIDS deaths had plummeted 60 percent in California, 44 percent across the
country as a whole. In time, it was shown that triple combination therapy in patients who had never taken drugs before kept close to 90
percent of them at undetectable levels of virus for two full years. Optimism about actually ridding the body completely of virus
dissipated; what had at one point been conceivable after two years stretched to three and then longer. But even for those who had
developed resistance to one or more drugs, the future seemed tangibly brighter. New, more powerful treatments were fast coming onstream, month after month. What had once been a handful of treatment options grew to over twenty. In trials, the next generation of
AZT packed a punch ten times as powerful as its original; and new, more focused forms of protease inhibitor carried with them even
greater promise. It was still taboo, of course, to mention this hope—for fear it might encourage a return to unsafe sex and a new
outburst of promiscuity. But, after a while, the numbers began to speak for themselves.
AIDS will NOT cause extinction
Andrew Sullivan, editor of The New Republic, Love Undetectable, 1998, p.7
So I do not apologize for the following sentence. It is true- and truer now than it was when it was first spoken, and truer now than
even six months ago- that something profound in the history of AIDS has occurred these last two years. The power of the new
treatments and the even greater power of those now in the pipeline are such that a diagnosis of HIV infection in the West is not just
different in degree today than, say, in 1994. For those who can get medical care, the diagnosis is quite different in kind. It no longer
signifies death. It merely signifies illness. This is a shift as immense as it is difficult to grasp. So let me make what I think is more
than a semantic point: a plague is not the same thing as a disease. It is possible, for example, for a plague to end, while a disease
continues. A plague is something that cannot be controlled, something with a capacity to spread exponentially out of its borders,
something that kills and devastates with democratic impunity, something that robs human beings of the ability to respond in any
practical way. Disease, in contrast, is generally diagnosable and treatable, with varying degrees of success; it occurs at a steady or
predictable rate; it counts its progress through the human population one person, and often centuries, at a time. Plague, on the other
hand, cannot be cured, and it never affects one person. It affects many, and at once, and swiftly. And by its very communal nature, by
its unpredictability and by its devastation, plague asks questions disease often doesn't. Disease is experienced; plague is spread.
Disease is always with us; plagues come and go. And some time toward the end of the millennium in America, the plague of AIDS
went.
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EXT #2 – AIDS INEVITABLE
OVERLAPPING SEXUAL RELATIONS AND MAKES THE SPREAD OF HIV/AIDS INEVITABLE.
Andrew RICE, The Nation, 6-11-07 (“An African Solution,” Vol. 284 Issue 23, p25-31, 5p, Ebsco)
There is an important difference, though, and Epstein believes it explains Africa’s ex ceptional susceptibility to AIDS. Americans tend
to leave one relationship for the next. Ugandans—or, rather, Ugandan men—don’t have to choose. Another way of describing this
phenomenon is to say that Europeans and Americans typically have lovers consecutively, while Africans— men and women alike—
are commonly involved in several overlapping relationships. Studies have found that such “concurrent or simultaneous sexual
partnerships are far more dangerous than serial monogamy,” Epstein writes, “because they link people up in a giant web of sexual
relationships that creates ideal conditions for the rapid spread of HIV.” In any given sexual encounter, an HIV-positive person has
around a 1-in-100 chance of passing on the virus. That’s a long shot in the context of a one-off tryst with a prostitute, but extended
over the course of an enduring relationship, the chance of infection rises to near-certainty. Also, in many African cultures, men are not
circumcised, which considerably increases their vulnerability. (Recent studies suggest this simple procedure cuts in half a man’s risk
of infection.) Epstein produces a series of charts that the reader can view like a flip book, showing how a single case of HIV can
spread through a network of concurrent relationships in just a few months.
HUNGER IS THE MAIN PRIORITY – AIDS HAS BEEN ACCEPTED AS INEVITABLE UNDER TRADITIONAL
BEHAVIOR.
GLAUSER, AND BLAKE, 07 (Wendy, Blake, “With the Best Intentions” Canadian Business; 4/9/2007, Vol. 80 Issue 8, p21-26,
5p, Ebsco)
Why? For those living in the poorest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where many people don't live past 40 and avoiding hunger is the
main priority, the pandemic is not necessarily a major concern, according to Mwenda. "The NGOs assume that people are stupid, that
if you just give them the information, the next day they'll be lined up buying condoms," he says. "But it doesn't work like that. Only if
NGOs can sort out the mortality rates will peoples behaviour change." Mortality rates, however, will be solved only with improved
transportation, better health care, proper medicine and the money to pay for it.
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EXT #4 – NO MUTATION
Virus fatality is determined by the host, not the microbe – mutations won’t matter
Alison Jacobson, Department of Microbiology at the University of Cape Town, excerpts from “Emerging and Re-Emerging Viruses:
An Essay,” 1995, www.bocklabs.wisc.edu/ed/ebolasho.html
These constraints on viral evolution are not surprising when one considers the selective pressures imposed by the host at each stage of
the virus life cycle. Tissue tropism determinants, include site of entry, viral attachment proteins, host cell receptors, tissue- specific
genetic elements (for example promoters), host cell enzymes (like proteinase), host transcription factors, and host resistance factors
such as age, nutrition and immunity. Host factors contribute significantly: sequences such as hormonally responsive promoter
elements and transcriptional regulatory factors can link viral expression to cell state. The interaction of virus and host is thus complex
but highly ordered, and can be altered by changing a variety of conditions. Unlike bacterial virulence, which is largely mediated by
bacterial toxins and virulence factors, viral virulence often depends on host factors, such as cellular enzymes that cleave key viral
molecules. Because virulence is multigenic, defects in almost any viral gene may attenuate a virus. For example, some reassortments
of avian influenza viruses are less virulent in primates than are either parental strain, indicating that virulence is multigenic (Treanor
and Murphy 1990).
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AT: AIDS CAUSES CONFLICT
AIDS doesn’t cause state collapse or widespread conflict
Whiteside ‘06
(Alan, Dir – Health Economics – U Kwazulu-Natal, Et al., Oxford U. Press, “AIDS, Security and the Miltary in Africa: A Sober
Appraisal”, 1-18)
One well-argued means whereby HIV/AIDS is likely to undermine national stability is through an increase in crime. Regarding this
assertion, there is one well-established association and many speculations. The demonstrable link is through a change in the
demographic structure of a population affected by AIDS, principally an increase in the proportion of young men in the total
population. A society’s crime rate is generally correlated with the proportion of its members that are young men, the demographic
category most likely to commit crimes.24 The speculations surround the possibility that children orphaned by AIDS are more likely to
become criminals. However plausible the postulated links, there is no empirical evidence for this.25
A second correlation is between economic performance and regime stability. Many studies show that weak economic performance is
an indicator of political instability and particularly that democracies are imperilled by economic downturns. Insofar as HIV/AIDS
increases economic strains, it follows that it contributes to political instability. However, like all correlations in political science, this
one is based on data pertaining to a particular historical period. Who is to say that the circumstances of contemporary Africa, which
involve important changes in governance structures and norms, and which include both the AIDS epidemic and the international
response to that (including massive financial assistance), will not lead to major changes in the patterns of regime change? For example,
it is notable that since the Organisation of African Unity (now the African Union) ruled that forcible changes of government are
unacceptable, the number of successful coups d’etat has fallen markedly.
Moreover, even if the correlation were to remain good, what does it tell us? One of the most celebrated statistical correlations is
between infant mortality rates and state survival, a link that led farsighted demographers to predict the demise of the Soviet Union
many years before it actually occurred. But no one would claim that the increasing infant mortality rate in the USSR actually caused its
collapse. Those who argue that no state can retain legitimacy while presiding over the catastrophic mortality increases that follow an
AIDS epidemic need to explain exactly how such state crisis could occur.
Some of the speculative links between AIDS and state crisis can be readily dismissed. For example, it is highly improbable that one
nation will see that its neighbour’s military has been heavily hit by AIDS and decide this is the opportunity to invade. No serious
observer of contemporary Africa would consider such a scenario. Similarly, it is unlikely that a group that believes itself disadvantaged
in the distribution of ARVs would stage a coup or take over the ministry of health. There do not appear to be any empirical links
between AIDS and terrorism whatsoever — the idea of people living with AIDS flocking to volunteer as suicide bombers collapses at
the first scrutiny.
More serious attention needs to be directed to the ways in which the HIV/AIDS epidemic erodes institutional capacity, creates poverty
and despair, and intensifies dependence on international aid. These are all serious pressures which jeopardize the development of
sound democratic governance and can intensify crisis. The case for AIDS contributing to national insecurity is best stated in its
minimal form: there is no element in the HIV/AIDS epidemic that contributes positively to good governance, with the possible
exception of the epidemic sparking social mobilization.
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AT: AIDS GLOBAL SPREAD (AFRICA SPECIFIC)
LARGE OUTBREAKS OF AIDS ARE LIMITED TO AFRICA, SPREAD IS EMPIRICALLY DENIED.
Andrew Rice, The Nation, 6-11-07 (“An African Solution,” Vol. 284 Issue 23, p25-31, 5p, Ebsco)
For all our worrying, the “HIV rate in the United States never exceeded one percent,” Helen Epstein writes in her new book, The
Invisible Cure. “At first, some UN officials predicted that HIV would spread rapidly in the general population of Asia and eastern
Europe, but the virus has been present in these regions for decades and such extensive spread has never occurred.” Sub-Saharan Africa
is a different story. In some countries there, well over 30 percent of adults younger than 50 are thought to be infected with HIV. To
appreciate the scale of the epidemiological disaster, consider this: Hear disease, the leading cause of death in the United States, killed
some 650,000 Americans in 2004. If AIDS had hit this country as hard as it has Zimbabwe or Botswana, 3–4 million Americans
would be dying of AIDS every year.
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AT: AIDS HURTS INFRASTRUCTURE
COUNTRIES WON’T BE INCAPACITATED BY AIDS – STABLE INFRASTRUCTURE CAN SUSTAIN AN OUTBREAK.
Landis Mackellar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis William McGreevey Futures Group, 2003 (Foreign Affairs;
Jul/Aug2003, Vol. 82 Issue 4, p211-212, 2p, Ebsco)
According to Eberstadt, hivffiaids will have two negative impacts on the three countries' economic output. First, deaths from aids will
reduce the size of the labor force, and second, the epidemic will reduce output per worker. Even if one accepts the former, the latter is
still a dubious proposition. Eberstadt assumes that these societies and economies will have absolutely no capacity to adjust in any way,
or to cope with the negative socioeconomic effects of the disease. Yet such total incapacitation is quite contrary to the nature of
human societies. In order to find credible the consequences of the hivffiaids epidemic in Russia posited by Eberstadt, one must believe
that the disease's impact on investment and productivity will be not only serious but catastrophic and unprecedented in the era of
modern economic growth. His results for India and China are equally flawed. They too assume that output per worker moves in lock
step with life expectancy, there being no possibility for coping strategies or adaptation. Decision-makers and opinion leaders should
beware of any conclusions based on such a faulty premise.
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AT: AIDS  INSTABILITY (AFRICA SPECIFIC)
AIDS DOESN’T CONTRIBUTE TO CONFLICT AND REPRESSION IN AFRICA. POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND
DEMOCRACY STILL SPREAD DESPITE INFECTIONS.
Alex DeWaal 07, program director at Social Science Research Council and a lecturer on the Department of Government, Harvard
University, author of AIDS and Power: Why There is No Political Crisis—Yet, 2007 (“The Politics of a Health Crisis” Harvard
International Review; Spring2007, Vol. 29 Issue 1, p20-24, 5p)
Some of these fears are indeed materializing. Others still loom. But some have been proven unfounded or at least exaggerated.
Foremost among the dire predictions that have not come true is the expectation that the epidemic would cause a governance crisis,
leaving conflict, repression, and anarchy in its wake. Africa has these ills aplenty, but AIDS has not been indicated in their etiology.
Since 1999, the University of Cape Town has conducted public opinion surveys in a growing number of African countries. These
"Afrobarometer" surveys are a rich source of data on what ordinary citizens think. They have revealed a simple but surprising fact
about public opinion; namely that AIDS is never at the top of the list of issues of concern for a population. That position is occupied
by unemployment, poverty, famine, and crime, depending on the country in question. Although "health" occasionally comes in at
number two, AIDS very rarely breaks into the top three, or even top five issues, though in some countries, notably South Africa, it has
been climbing the ladder of concern. AIDS occupies a commensurately marginal place in African political life. No African
government has been overthrown because of its AIDS policies. No election has been decided on this issue. In fact, in South Africa, die
ruling African National Congress (ANC) was reelected with an increased majority in 2004 despite President Thabo Mbeki's notorious
denial that HIV' causes AIDS. True, South .Africa has seen street protests over access to treatment, but the Treatment Action
Campaign (TAC), which organizes them, has no counterparts elsewhere in the continent. Furthermore, its agenda is reform and not
revolution. Surprising as it may seem to AIDS activists from else where, many TAC leaders remain loyal ANC members. Their
dispute with Mbeki is not the insurrectionary fervor of the ANC toppling apartheid, but rather one wing of the new political
establishment struggling to bring its errant colleagues back in line. Why is it that a disease which will kill one in six adult Africans and
more than half of adults in the continent's southernmost six countries is not the subject of overwhelming political passion? The
demographer John Caldwell noted that life expectancy In many African cities is comparable to that in France during World War I—
and bas been over a much longer period than those four years of war but while France was traumatized by the death of so many young
men, political life in Africa continues in a remarkably normal way; democracy is actually spreading
AFRICA’S AIDS CRISIS WON’T SPILL OVER INTO MILITARY CONFLICT OR GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.
Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute, Senior Adviser to the National
Bureau of Asian Research, Foreign Affairs November 2002 - December 2002
Africa's AIDS catastrophe is a humanitarian disaster of world historic proportions, yet the economic and political reverberations from
this crisis have been remarkably muted outside the continent itself. The explanation for this awful dissonance lies in the region's
marginal status in global economics and politics. By many measures, for example, sub-Saharan Africa's contribution to the world
economy is less than Switzerland's. In military affairs, no regional state, save perhaps South Africa, has the capacity to conduct
overseas combat operations, and indeed sub-Saharan governments are primarily preoccupied with local troubles. The states of the
region are thus not well positioned to influence events much beyond their own borders under any circumstances, good or ill -- and the
cruel consequence is that the world pays them little attention
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AT: AIDS  NATIONAL INSECURITY
Empirically the U.S. and E.U. have grown stronger as a result of AIDS – won’t be taken out by disease spread
David P. Fidler, Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003, George Washington International Law Review, 35 Geo.
Wash. Int'l L. Rev. 787, p. 818-9
The more general threat from infectious diseases proves harder to connect with the realpolitik perspective on national security. The
literature on the public health-national security linkage posits two kinds of threats from naturally occurring infectious diseases: direct and indirect. The direct threat
comes from pathogenic microbes "invading" a state through global travel and trade, undermining military, economic, and political capabilities and thus the state's
foundations of power. The indirect threat manifests itself when infectious diseases contribute to "state failure" in other regions of the world, causing military, political,
and economic instability that adversely affects the strategic interests of other states. HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa is an example experts frequently employ in the
public health-national security linkage literature to argue that infectious disease problems in other countries represent an indirect national security threat to the United
States. From the realpolitik perspective, the "direct threat" argument is hard to maintain in connection with the national security of the great
powers, which are the primary focus of realism. HIV/AIDS "invaded" the United States and European nations during the 1980s and
caused epidemics. Infectious disease morbidity and mortality, and the economic costs associated with dealing with the consequences,
have climbed in the United States and other nations over the past twenty years. The increasing problems associated with microbial
invaders specifically and infectious diseases generally did not, however, undermine or challenge the great power status of the United
States and countries in Western Europe. Analysts of international politics generally recognized that the United States and Europe grew
in absolute and relative power during the first two decades of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and the time period associated with emerging
and re- emerging infectious diseases. n147 For the United States as a great power, the microbial incursion of HIV/AIDS and other pathogens has not affected
its ability to defend the nation against external attack or project its power in other regions of the world. As Price-Smith concluded, "the globalization of disease
is not a direct threat to the security of industrialized nations at the present time."
There is no link between disease outbreaks and national security
P. Fidler, Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003, George Washington International Law Review, 35 Geo. Wash.
Int'l L. Rev. 787, p. 795-6
Despite the Clinton administration's claim that infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, represented a national
security threat to the United States, the administration behaved in ways that indicated it did not practice what it preached. The most
glaring discrepancy on this issue came in the hard line the Clinton administration took against developing countries, such as South Africa, that sought to increase access
to antiretroviral therapies for HIV/AIDS-ravaged populations. Reviewing the National Intelligence Council's report on The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its
Implications for the United States in Foreign Affairs, Philip Zelikow argued: "The analysis is fascinating, and the case for international humanitarian action
is compelling. But why invoke the "national security" justification for intervention? The case for direct effects on U.S. security is thin.
Frustration also accompanied efforts to delineate the linkage. CBACI and the CSIS International Security Program engaged in an
eighteen-month research project on the question of whether the "growing number of intersections between health and security issues
create a national security challenge for the United States" only to conclude that "we still cannot provide a definitive answer."
Perception is key – disease outbreaks are not perceived as a security threat
David P. Fidler, Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003, George Washington International Law Review, 35 Geo.
Wash. Int'l L. Rev. 787, p. 839-41
As analyzed above, arguments that infectious diseases coming from other countries through international trade and travel constitute
a direct national security threat to the United States were not persuasive. "Germs don't recognize borders" did not impress the national
security community in the United States, and the seismic shift precipitated by the anthrax attacks reinforces this skepticism. At the time of this writing, for
example, the global spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) - a new, contagious disease causing severe public health and economic problems in Asia
and Canadan226 - was not being discussed in the United States as a national security issue, except in connection with how SARS may
affect U.S. military efforts in Iraq. The emerging concept of public health security in the United States only weakly recognizes the
national security importance of the globalization of infectious diseases. This argument does not mean that the globalization of infectious diseases is
entirely absent from the post-anthrax U.S. foreign policy agenda. The Bush administration's national security strategy includes frequent references to the foreign policy
importance of HIV/AIDS, and President Bush's announcement in January 2003 of an Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief represented a dramatic proposal for increased
U.S. humanitarian assistance to nations in Africa and the Caribbean significantly affected by HIV/AIDS. n229 As indicated earlier in this Article, not all foreign
policy issues rise, however, to the level of being national security concerns. As a consequence, global infectious disease problems do
not feature strongly in the emerging scope and substance of public health security in the United States.
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AT: AIR POLUTION
1. Air pollution has tons of causes – no way to solve them all
BROOK et al 04 M.D. and several other doctors writing for Circulation magazine from the American Heart Association [Circulation magazine Robert D. Brook,
MD; Barry Franklin, PhD, Chair; Wayne Cascio, MD; Yuling Hong, MD, PhD; George Howard, PhD; Michael Lipsett, MD; Russell Luepker, MD; Murray Mittleman,
MD, ScD; Jonathan Samet, MD; Sidney C. Smith, Jr, MD; Ira Tager, MD, “Air Pollution and the Cardiovascular Disease” June 1, 2004,
http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/109/21/2655#SEC1/] k ward
A brief description of several individual air pollutants is provided first for background. A complete discussion is beyond the scope of this statement, and
interested readers may find a more comprehensive review on this subject elsewhere.26 Particulate Matter Airborne Particulate Matter consists of a heterogeneous
mixture of solid and liquid particles suspended in air, continually varying in size and chemical composition in space and time (Figure 1). Primary particles are emitted
directly into the atmosphere, such as diesel soot, whereas secondary particles are created through physicochemical transformation of gases, such as nitrate and sulfate formation from gaseous
nitric acid and sulfur dioxide (SO2), respectively. The
numerous natural and anthropogenic sources of PM include motor vehicle emissions, tire
fragmentation and resuspension of road dust, power generation and other industrial combustion, smelting and other metal processing,
agriculture, construction and demolition activities, residential wood burning, windblown soil, pollens and molds, forest fires and
combustion of agricultural debris, volcanic emissions, and sea spray. Although there are thousands of chemicals that have been detected in PM in different
locations, some of the more common constituents include nitrates, sulfates, elemental and organic carbon, organic compounds (eg, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), biological compounds
(eg, endotoxin, cell fragments), and a variety of metals (eg, iron, copper, nickel, zinc, and vanadium).
2. air quality improving – will continue
Schwartz 03 Adjunct Scholar @ Competitive Enterprise Institute [Joel Schwartz, “Particulate Air Pollution: weighing the risks” April 2003
http://cei.org/pdf/3452.pdf/] Kevin W. Prep ‘11
America’s air quality has vastly improved in recent decades due to progressive emission reductions from industrial facilities and motor
vehicles. The country achieved this success despite substantial increases in population, automobile travel, and energy production . Air pollution
will continue to decline, both because more recent vehicle models start out cleaner and stay cleaner as they age than earlier ones, and
also because already-adopted standards for new vehicles and existing power plants and industrial facilities come into effect in the next few
years.
3. Air pollution has no negative impact - multiple studies prove PLUS their evidence relies on media hype
Schwartz 03 Adjunct Scholar @ Competitive Enterprise Institute [Joel Schwartz, “Particulate Air Pollution: weighing the risks” April
2003 http://cei.org/pdf/3452.pdf/] Kevin W. Prep ‘11
PM and other air pollutants have been declining for decades . Current trends in vehicle-fleet turnover and already-adopted regulations for industrial sources of pollution
ensure continued pollution declines in coming years. The case for long-term harm from current levels is relatively weak, while short-term changes in PM levels likely shorten life by no more
than a matter of days. Despite this relatively optimistic picture, the
public’s view of air pollution is just the opposite of reality. Numerous polls show most
Americans believe that air pollution has been getting worse or will get worse in the future, and that air pollution is a serious threat to
most people’s health.136 One reason for Americans’ misperception may be a series of reports from activist groups featuring alarmist
rhetoric and misleading portrayals of air pollution levels and health effects.137 These reports come under scary titles such as “Darkening Skies;”
“Death, Disease and Dirty Power;” and “Power to Kill;” and claim that power plant PM pollution causes 30,000 deaths per year, mainly from coal-fired power plants in
the eastern United States. Each of these reports sources the 30,000 deaths claim back to a study commissioned by the Clean Air Task Force, a
coalition of environmental groups, and carried out by consultants from Abt Associates.138 The Abt study bases its PM-induced mortality estimates on PM2.5 effects reported in
the ACS cohort study. But, as shown above, the ACS results are likely spurious, suffering from confounding by non-pollution factors not accounted for in the ACS analysis. In addition, the
Veterans study and the County study concluded that PM2.5 either has no effect on long-term mortality, or that the threshold for harm is somewhere above 20 μg/m3—well above PM2.5 levels
at 97 percent of U.S. monitoring locations. Furthermore, the
areas that do have PM2.5 greater than 20 μg/m3 are mainly located in southern California and California’s
there are no coal-fired power plants and electricity generation produces no sulfur dioxide and contributes only
about 2 percent of regional NOx emissions. The evidence from toxicology studies also shows that sulfates—the portion of PM from coal-fired
power plants—have no effect on health. Indeed, inhaled magnesium sulfate is used therapeutically to treat asthmatics . Given this evidence,
the Abt report and the activist reports derived from it have vastly exaggerated the health damage from current levels of PM pollution and the
health effects of power plant emissions. Readers of these reports would also never know that PM levels have been dropping and will continue to
drop. For example, the Public Interest Research Group’s (PIRG) “Darkening Skies” reports that 300 power plants increased their SO2 emissions between 1995 and 2000. Once emitted, some
southern Central Valley, where
SO2 gets converted into sulfate particulates through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. But PIRG never mentions that overall SO2 emissions declined 33 percent between 1973 and 1999;
that total power plant SO2 emissions declined 29 percent from 1990 to 2000; and that federal law requires an additional 20 percent SO2 reduction from power plants between 2000 and
2010.139 PIRG also fails to mention that sulfate PM
levels across the eastern U.S. have declined by 10 to 40 percent since the late 1980s, due to these SO2
Skies” contains no information at all on actual trends in pollutant emissions or actual PM levels in any
community, despite the wealth of data available from hundreds of monitoring locations in populated areas around the country . Instead
of providing the public with a realistic assessment of air quality, PIRG’s report misleads readers to draw conclusions grossly at odds
with reality. Other activistgroup reports followed similar recipes, using superficially scary, but misleading statistics, while omitting information on actual air pollution levels, trends, and
reductions.140 Indeed, “ Darkening
risks.141
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EXT #2 – QUALITY IMPROVING
US has pollution under control – we are making advances
Schwartz 03 Adjunct Scholar @ Competitive Enterprise Institute [Joel Schwartz, “Particulate Air Pollution: weighing the
risks” April 2003 http://cei.org/pdf/3452.pdf/] Kevin W. Prep ‘11
There is no question that high levels of air pollution can kill. About 4,000 Londoners died during the infamous five-day “London Fog” episode of December 1952, when soot and sulfur dioxide
soared to levels tens of times greater than the highest levels experienced in developed countries today, and visibility dropped to less than 20 feet.1 A number of other high-pollution episodes up
through the 1970s exacted a similarly horrifying toll.2 Fortunately, the United
States has been very successful in reducing air pollution. Due to a
combination of technological advances and regulatory intervention, pollution levels have been declining for decades, despite large
increases in population, energy use, and driving. Nevertheless, many health researchers, regulators, and environmental activists are concerned that airborne particulate
matter (PM), especially smaller particulates known as PM10 and PM2.5,3 might still be causing tens of thousands of premature deaths each
year,.4 Policymakers and environmental activists have recently focused special attention on the health effects of power-plant emissions, which are a significant contributor to PM2.5 levels in
parts of the eastern United States. Bills introduced by Senator James Jeffords (I-VT) and the Bush Administration would require cuts in power plant emissions well
beyond current requirements; advocates for both proposals claim they would save thousands of lives per year .5 Environmental groups have
published a series of reports claiming substantial harm to public health from power plant emissions.6 These groups ardently oppose the Clear Skies Initiative as well as the Bush
Administration’s proposed reform of the Clean Air Act’s New Source Review regulation, arguing that it would allow substantial increases in power plant emissions.7
Air pollution in the US low –studies shows
Schwartz 03 Adjunct Scholar @ Competitive Enterprise Institute [Joel Schwartz, “Particulate Air Pollution: weighing the
risks” April 2003 http://cei.org/pdf/3452.pdf/] Kevin W. Prep ‘11
Air pollution sources and trends. Appropriate policy depends not only on current pollution levels, but also on expected future pollution levels . This paper begins with
a summary of air pollution trends, current levels, and prospects, based on pre-existing trends and regulations already on the books. It shows that PM and other kinds of air
pollution have been declining for decades—few areas of the United States now have high air pollution levels, relative either to current health
standards or past levels. The study concludes that baseline trends—mainly turnover of the vehicle fleet—combined with existing requirements for industrial sources,
will result in large reductions in all major air pollutants in coming years . This means that air pollution has been largely addressed as a long-term problem, but
also that these already-adopted measures will take time to come to fruition.
US government makes better standards – the people are complying
Schwartz 03 Adjunct Scholar @ Competitive Enterprise Institute [Joel Schwartz, “Particulate Air Pollution: weighing the
risks” April 2003 http://cei.org/pdf/3452.pdf/] Kevin W. Prep ‘11
Ambient air pollution levels have been declining almost everywhere in the United States for decades. Average levels of carbon
monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) declined 75 percent during the last 30 to 40 years, while nitrogen oxides (NOx) declined more than
40 percent.12 Virtually all areas of the country now comply with federal health standards for these pollutants.13 Eighty-seven percent
of monitoring locations now comply with the federal one-hour ozone standard, up from 50 percent in the early 1980s . Only 60 percent comply
with EPA’s new, more stringent ozone standard, known as the “eight-hour standard.” However, most eight-hour ozone non-attainment locations are relatively close to the standard, with 70
percent exceeding the standard by 10 percent or less.14
AIR POLLUTION will be solved inevitably – developed countries address it
LOMBORG 01- Statistician at the University of Aarhus, Denmark. Author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist” [Bjorn
Lomborg, “Environmentalists tend to believe that, ecologically speaking, things are getting worse and worse.”August 9. 2001.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/lomborg2.htm]
Fourth, pollution is also exaggerated. Many analyses show that air pollution diminishes when a society becomes rich enough to be able to
afford to be concerned about the environment. For London, the city for which the best data are available, air pollution peaked around
1890 (see chart 2). Today, the air is cleaner than it has been since 1585. There is good reason to believe that this general picture holds true
for all developed countries. And, although air pollution is increasing in many developing countries, they are merely replicating the development of the industrialized countries.
When they grow sufficiently rich they, too, will start to reduce their air pollution.
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EXT #3 – NO IMPACT
Pollution doesn't increase morbidity - at worse it shortens lives by a day
Schwartz 03 Adjunct Scholar @ Competitive Enterprise Institute [Joel Schwartz, “Particulate Air Pollution: weighing the
risks” April 2003 http://cei.org/pdf/3452.pdf/] Kevin W. Prep ‘11
Studies that have attempted to estimate directly when death occurs in relation to increases in pollution by estimating the size of this frail population
have concluded that acute changes in pollution levels shorten life expectancy by a matter of days at most.113 The putative effects of PM based
on epidemiologic results are consistent with the harvesting hypothesis. For example, if daily variations in pollution mainly affect an already-frail
population, it may be that it’s not so much the type of external stress that is important, but that any modest external stress would be
enough to cause death. This is consistent with the finding that many different types of pollutio n—e.g., fine and coarse PM, various gases—appear to
have effects on mortality of similar magnitude, as do changes in temperature, atmospheric pressure and other weather variables.114 If PM and other pollutants were shortening healthy people’s
lives by months or years, it would be an odd coincidence if several different pollutants, each with a different intrinsic toxicity and each present at different levels in different cities, all happened
to exert roughly the same effects, regardless of the pollutant or its ambient concentration. On the other hand, if PM is actually shortening life by months or years in otherwise healthy people,
biological plausibility is still an issue. Various
pollutants are always present at some level in ambient air, and pollution levels vary from day to
day. It is not clear why apparently healthy people would be suddenly killed on a given day by relatively low PM levels that they have
experienced many times in the past.115 The frailpopulation hypothesis would explain the possible lack of a threshold for the effect of PM on mortality, since changes in
pollution, even at low levels, might be enough to cause death in very frail people.116
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AT: AIR POWER
1. Ground forces are key to heg—they outweigh air power.
Mearsheimer 1 (John, Professor of International Relations at the University of Chicago, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, p. 85)
For more than a century strategists have debated which form of military power dominates the outcome of war. U.S. admiral Alfred
Thayer Mahan famously proclaimed the supreme importance of independent sea power in The Influence of Sea Power upon
History, 1660-1783 and his other writings. General Giuldo Douhet of Italy later made the case for the primacy of strategic
airpower in his 1921 classic, The Command of the Air. Their works are still widely read at staff colleges around the world. I argue
that both are wrong: land power is the decisive military instrument. Wars are won by big battalions, not by armadas in the air or
sea. The strongest power is the state with the strongest army.
2. No airpower challenger – every other country is decades behind us in air tech – they buy our old planes.
3. Airpower will inevitably collapse – the Air Force is overstretched and is cutting end strength
Kreisher ’08 (Otto is a military affairs reporter for Air Force Magazine, “The Ground Force Taskings to go,” March)
http://www.afa.org/magazine/march2008/0308ilo.asp
(The steady state assignment of more than 6,000 airmen to these tasks—called “in lieu of” missions, in that they have been assigned to
airmen in lieu of soldiers and marines—will likely persist even though the Army and Marine Corps are raising end strength and the
Air Force is cutting its.) The ILO taskings also continue despite Air Force charges that well-trained personnel are being put to poor
use. Amn. Kevin Cook stands watch at Ali Air Base, Iraq. (USAF photo by A1C Jonathan Snyder) The Air Force has been sending its
airmen to Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the US Central Command theater to perform ILO taskings since February 2004. They
have been performing a variety of tasks normally handled by soldiers or marines. Those requirements came in response to Pentagon
concerns that the ground services were being overstressed from repeated combat deployments and shortened periods at home bases.
The assignments come in addition to the normal Air Force deployments in support of the war against extremists. Of the 25,453
airmen deployed to the theater late last year, 6,293 were filling ILO taskings, Maj. Gen. Marke F. Gibson, Air Force director of
operations, told a House Armed Services readiness subcommittee.
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EXT #1 – GROUND FORCES KEY
Ground forces are key—US needs them to gain territory in conflict.
Grayson 1 (Daryl, Assistant Professor of Government and Research Fellow at the Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth, “The Myth of Air
Power in the Persian Gulf War and the Future of Warfare,” International Security, 26(2), Project Muse, AD: 7-6-9) BL
Second, the geography and foreign policy of the United States require that it maintain a balanced military force structure. Because
the United States has global military commitments, it must have a military that can deploy rapidly to defend faraway allies. Air
power is ideal for this mission: It can get to distant battlefields quickly and -- as al-Khafji and the Highway of Death show -- it can
be lethal against enemy ground forces on the move. However, because its allies are far away, the United States often joins wars
late. Allied territory often must be recaptured, and sometimes enemy territory must be taken. For these missions, the United States
needs ground forces that can dominate the battlefield. Unless the United States military maintains large, well-trained, and
wellarmed ground forces, it will not be prepared to achieve more one-sided victories like the Gulf War.
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AT: AMAZON
No impact—a) the Amazon is recovering and b) even if it was totally destroyed there’s no impact
NEW YORK POST 6-9-2005 (Posted at Cheat Seeking Missiles, date is date of post, http://cheatseekingmissiles.blogspot.com/2005/06/stop-global-whining2.html)
"One of the simple, but very important, facts is that the rainforests have only been around for between 12,000 and 16,000 years. That sounds like a very
long time but, in terms of the history of the earth, it's hardly a pinprick . "Before then, there were hardly any rainforests. They are very young. It is just a
big mistake that people are making. "The simple point is that there are now still - despite what humans have done - more rainforests today
than there were 12,000 years ago." "This lungs of the earth business is nonsense; the daftest of all theories," Stott adds. "If you want to put
forward something which, in a simple sense, shows you what's wrong with all the science they espouse, it's that image of the lungs of the world. "In fact, because the
trees fall down and decay, rainforests actually take in slightly more oxygen than they give out. "The idea of them soaking up carbon
dioxide and giving out oxygen is a myth. It's only fast-growing young trees that actually take up carbon dioxide," Stott says. "In terms of world
systems, the rainforests are basically irrelevant. World weather is governed by the oceans - that great system of ocean atmospherics. "Most
things that happen on land are mere blips to the system, basically insignificant ," he says. Both scientists say the argument that the cure for
cancer could be hidden in a rainforest plant or animal - while plausible - is also based on false science because the sea holds more
mysteries of life than the rainforests. And both say fears that man is destroying this raw source of medicine are unfounded because the
rainforests are remarkably healthy. "They are just about the healthiest forests in the world. This stuff about them vanishing at an
alarming rate is a con based on bad science," Moore says.
Amazon does not regulate oxygen—their argument doesn’t factor decomposition which consumes all the oxygen rainforests
create
NEW WORLD ENCYCLOPEDIA 2009 (“Rainforest,” date is last mod, March 27, http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Rainforest)
It is commonly believed, erroneously, that one of the key values of rainforests is that they provide much of the oxygen for the planet.
However, most rainforests do not in fact provide much net oxygen for the rest of the world. Through factors such as the decomposition
of dead plant matter, rainforests consume as much oxygen as they produce , except in certain conditions (primarily swamp forests) where the dead
plant matter does not decay, but is preserved underground instead (ultimately to form new coal deposits over enough time).
Amazon is not key to oxygen—decomposition makes it net neutral
LOMBORG 2001 (Bjorn, adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Centre and a former director of the
Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen, The Skeptical Environmentalist, p. 115)
There are two primary reasons for viewing the tropical forests as a vital resource. In the 1970s we were told that rainforests were the lungs of the Earth. Even in July
2000, WWF argued for saving the Brazilian Amazon since “the Amazon region has been called the lungs of the world.” But this is a myth. True enough,
plants produce oxygen by means of photosynthesis, but when they die and decompose, precisely the same amount of oxygen is
consumed. Therefore, forests in equilibrium (where trees grow but old trees fall over, keeping the total biomass approximately constant) neither produce
nor consume oxygen in net terms. Even if all plants, on land as well as at sea, were killed off and then decomposed, the process would
consume less than 1 percent of the atmosphere’s oxygen.
Amazon is not key to oxygen
LA TIMES 6-8-2005 (https://listserv.umd.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0506b&L=ecolog-l&D=1&P=2745)
Even without the massive burning, the popular conception of the Amazon as a giant oxygen factory for the rest of the planet is misguided, scientists
say. Left unmolested, the forest does generate enormous amounts of oxygen through photosynthesis, but it consumes most of it itself in the decomposition
of organic matter. Researchers are trying to determine what role the Amazon plays in keeping the region cool and relatively moist, which in turn has a hugely
beneficial effect on agriculture - ironically, the same interests trying to cut down the forest. The theory goes that the jungle's humidity, as much as water from the
ocean, is instrumental in creating rain over both the Amazon River basin and other parts of South America, particularly western and southern Brazil, where much of this
country's agricultural production is concentrated. "If you took away the Amazon, you'd take away half of the rain that falls on Brazil," Moutinho said. "You can
imagine the problems that would ensue." A shift in climate here could cause a ripple effect, disrupting weather patterns in Antarctica, the Eastern U.S. and even
Western Europe, some scholars believe. This is what worries ecologists about the continued destruction of the rain forest: not the supposed effect on the global air
supply, but rather on the weather. "Concern about the environmental aspects of deforestation now is more over climate rather than [carbon
emissions] or whether the Amazon is the 'lungs of the world,' " said Paulo Barreto, a researcher with the Amazon Institute of People
and Environment. "For sure, the Amazon is not the lungs of the world," he added. "It never was."
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AT: ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE
1. Too many alternative causes to solve for
Savert ‘8 (Richard S., Associate Professor of Law & Co-Director, Health Law and Policy Institute, University of Houston Law Center. J.D. Stanford Law School, B.A. Harvard
University, Boston University American Journal of Law and Medicine, “In Tepid Defense of Population Health: Physicians and Antibiotic Resistance,” P. Lexis//DN)
antibiotic resistance has numerous, complex root
causes, including: weak surveillance for resistance: n10 aggressive promotion of antibiotics by pharmaceutical companies:
n11 lax infection control practices: n12 patients' irrational demand for antibiotics even when they may not be effective:
n13 unwarranted clinical variation in the way physicians prescribe and monitor use of antibiotics; n14 inappropriate
patterns of antibiotic use in agriculture and food-animal products that may impact human health; n15 and a possible
downturn in discovery and commercial development of new antibiotics. n16 Recent reform proposals attracting considerable
interest focus a great deal on supply side solutions. For example, the influential Infectious Diseases Society of America and other groups advocate tinkering with
Effective strategies for combating antibiotic resistance unfortunately remain elusive. This reflects the fact that
patent rights to provide pharmaceutical companies stronger incentives to discover novel antibiotics and to resist overselling their newer drugs already on the market. These strategies
generally aim to encourage stockpiling of newer [*434] medications for future public health threats and to extend the useful life of antibiotics. n17 Congress has also considered
a primarily supply side focus unfortunately misses
the mark. Attempts to increase the general supply of effective antibiotics of course remain important. But reform proposals also need to do much more in
directly confronting the powerful demand side influences. Ordinarily expected supply side effects do not always occur in the complicated
health care market. Because of agency relationships and information asymmetries, physicians perform as the key intermediary, in
a position to induce, control, or at least heavily influence, overall demand and utilization of many goods and services, sometimes
seemingly irrespective of changes in supply. n19 Considerable attention needs to be paid, therefore, regardless of any changes in the supply of effective
antibiotics, to the physician's necessarily significant, yet traditionally neglected and problematic, role in antibiotic conservation. It
must be remembered that, as in many other areas of health care, the physician performs a critical role as gatekeeper to
limited resources. The ideal physician gatekeeper makes referrals and grants patient access to health care services and
technology on a discretionary basis, considering effectiveness and cost as well as the patient's needs in an attempt to manage [*435] limited resources
equitably for the benefit of patients as a whole. n20 Gatekeeping is often associated with health care cost control, particularly in
managed care settings, a subject that continues to attract considerable debate and scholarly attention. n21 Yet there has been far less recognition in the academic
literature of the important connection between physician gatekeeping and protection of public health. Indeed, in the antibiotic
context, effective gatekeeping takes on increased importance for public health reasons because "[o]ther than certain vaccines, antibiotics are the only
legislative bills that would leverage intellectual property rights in this manner. n18 This Article argues that
drug class whose use influences not just the patient being treated but the entire ecosystem . . . with potentially profound consequences." n22 This arises due to the "antibiotic paradox" -
prescribing an antibiotic can have dual, contradictory effects as it combats targeted bacteria while also possibly increasing
selection pressures in the larger environment for bacterial strains that are resistant to that antibiotic, potentially jeopardizing the
medication's effectiveness when used again for future health threats. n23 It remains critically important, therefore, that
physicians prescribe antibiotics prudently, preserving the limited arsenal of effective medications for socially optimal use.
Arguably, this becomes as important for public health purposes as ensuring that physicians use the drugs at all.
2. Solves itself – we’ll just make new drugs.
3. Awful probability of an awful timeframe, animals have used antibiotics for over 60 years.
Dale Rozeboom et. al.Michigan State Swine Specialist and Prof. of Animal Science at Michigan State University, April , 2008 “Antibiotics in the Environment
and Antibiotic Resistance,” Michigan State University http://www.thepigsite.com/articles/8/biosecurity-disinfection/2220/antibiotics-in-the-environment-and-antibiotic-resistance
Antibiotics have been used in animals over 60 years. However, antibiotic resistance only recently has become a major medical
concern in hospitals. Whenever a population of bacteria, of importance to animals or humans, is exposed to an antibiotic it encourages the predominance of the most resistant
strains of the bacteria. The most well-known example of this is how rapidly gonorrhea became resistant to penicillin. It is possible for resistant bacteria from animals
to make their way into humans, but many barriers stand in their way. Most bacteria that cause animal diseases are specialized for
that species (species-specific) and poorly invade humans. Zoonotic bacteria, such as certain species of Escherichia coli and Salmonella are of greater
concern as they are transmissible from animals to humans. Usual precautions of washing hands and thoroughly cooking of foods eliminate the
spread of these to humans, but these procedures do not help prevent environmental transmission (e.g., to drinking water).
4. Impact Inevitable: Europe and Asia
Epoch Times 6/24/2k9 (“Animal Agriculture Boosts Antibiotic Resistance,” pg online @ http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/18597/ //ef)
Researchers have found the presence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) on pig farms, where strains of
MRSA have been discovered that can jump from swine to humans . These strains have been isolated in several countries, including Canada and
the U.S. “Right now what’s been shown is that in Europe, the U.S., Canada, and I think in some Asian countries as well, contact
with pigs has definitely been shown to be a risk factor for carrying MRSA, and some people who carry MRSA are going to get sick and then
transfer it to other people who will get sick,” says Steve Roach, spokesperson for Keep Antibiotics Working. To prevent disease outbreaks and to
stimulate growth, the hog industry adds more than 10 million pounds of antibiotics to its feed , according to UCS. The organization
estimates that 70 percent of antibiotics and related drugs used in the U.S. are used in animals.
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AT: ARCTIC WAR
1. No actual conflict – the arctic war will be settled legally, with other countries simply caving to Russia
Bronwen Maddox (Chief Foreign Commentator) 5/14/2009: Kremlin keeps up James Bond theme with talk of Arctic war.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/bronwen_maddox/article6283108.ece
It is, no doubt, a coincidence that the Kremlin’s musings on whether there will be a war over the Arctic — the theme, couched, of
course, in hypothetical terms, tucked into a high-profile defence review — should appear on the same day as a United Nations
deadline for filing claims to the seabed.
This has the air of a stunt, and in Arctic stunts Russia has no equal. No other country would have conceived of the showy James Bond
literalness of using a submarine to put a flag on the Arctic seabed (to no legal consequence). Nonetheless, that added a frisson to the
rising agitation about who will eventually get what. Countries are jostling for rights to previously inaccessible oil and gas, now within
reach because of the summer melting of Arctic ice and new deep-water drilling kit.
But to talk of war is to ignore the vast legal effort under way to settle just those questions. Yesterday’s deadline is part of it. Reading
the Kremlin’s fierce and gloomy strategic review, which foresees threats and competition for Russia on all sides, other countries are
presumably intended to tremble and surrender their claims.
2. Deterrence solves – if Russia wasn’t willing to fight during the cold war, they won’t fight now.
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AT: ASIAN ECONOMIES
1. Asian economies swift stimulus mean it will recover quickly from the recession and remaining heavily resilient
Prime Sarmiento 9-22-2009: Resilient developing Asian region to lead global economic recovery.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/22/content_12098472.htm
Developing Asia is expected to register a stronger-than-expected 3.9 percent growth this year as timely economic policies and
programs implemented by Asian governments will keep the region afloat amid the global recession. The Asian Development Bank has
forecast in March that the region will only expand by 3.4 percent as most of its export driven economies are expected to be crippled by
falling demand. But on Tuesday, the Manila-based lender revised its forecast to a higher 3.9 percent. ADB also upgraded its growth
forecast for 2010to 6.4 percent from 6 percent forecast in March. In its flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development
Outlook 2009, the Manila-based bank said the regional governments' "quick and decisive response" to the global downturn softened
its impact to developing Asian economies. Massive stimulus packages, tax cuts, monetary easing policies and social assistance
encouraged consumption and investments. "Almost every large economy in developing Asia has implemented measures to stimulate
aggregate demand through fiscal and monetary expansion. In turn, households were relatively quick to spend fiscal windfalls that
came in the form of tax cuts and income support, giving a fillip to consumption that began to boost GDP by the second quarter of
2009," ADB said in its report issued on Tuesday. More than keeping the region's economies resilient, these measures will also help in
supporting its recovery. The ADB said the region is poised to achieved a V-shaped rebound, and will in fact lead the recovery from
the global slowdown. "Despite worsening conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the
recovery from the worldwide slowdown," ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee said in a statement. India and China the world's
fastest growing economies and developing Asia's largest economies will lead developing Asia's rebound. Economic growth in East
Asia is upgraded to 4.4 percent as China is seen to grow by 8.2 percent, beating the previous forecast of 7 percent. ADB forecasts the
South Asian economies to grow by 5.6 percent from the previous 4.8 percent as the Indian economy is poised to expand by 6 percent.
2. Asian economies too dependant on the US – makes growth impossible
Adeline Teoh 10/27/2009: Asian economies must turn domestic: Japan. http://www.dynamicexport.com.au/news/asian-economiesmust-turn-domestic-japan00750/
Growth for Asian economies will need to be rebalanced by becoming less dependent on the USA and instead turning to their
respective domestic economies, according to Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.
While the global economy has shown signs of recovery, “the employment situation is still getting worse and in dire condition”, and
Asia needs to stimulate domestic demand for more sustainable growth, he relayed through foreign ministry spokesperson Kazuo
Kodama: “The economic conditions of the global economy seem to have bottomed out, yet there is no room for complacency.”
3. Alt cause – war in Iraq kills economy – US importing less, and oil prices are higher
S. Pushpanathan (assistant Director for External Relations in the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia) 2009: ASEAN
Economies Could be Affected by a Protracted War
The commencement of the war has started to weaken the US dollars driven by market sentiments that the war would be short and
swift. The US Federal Reserve could be cutting interest rates, which are already low, to mitigate the low confidence and spending in
the US economy due to uncertainties about the duration of the war and its likely consequences.
Many Asian countries are taking steps to tide over the economic impact of a prolonged war. These steps will include tightening
monetary policy, ensuring stability in the financial markets and other fiscal measures to spur the economy. The announcement of
Japan to inject US$8.3 billion into money markets will help to stabilize the global financial system.
The ASEAN Foreign Ministers who held a retreat in Sabah recently were divided on the support for the US-led war in Iraq but all
recognized the repercussions of a long war on the ASEAN economies. The ASEAN Secretary General Ong Keng Yong said that the
war would hurt the region's shaky recovery and that a prolonged war could cut ASEAN's economic growth by up to one percent.
A protracted war could affect the ability of the US market to absorb ASEAN exports due to the likelihood of slumping US demand for
consumer goods and the sinking US dollar which may push up the prices of ASEAN exports. This would have a negative impact on
the export-dependent ASEAN economies which require a steady flow of exports to consolidate their recovery and to keep jobs.
Oil prices could increase again. Should President Saddam launch massive retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and other countries, light up
the oil wells and use chemical and biological weapons on the advancing coalition forces, market sentiments would change and drive
the oil prices up. Some have argued that the oil prices could hit the US$40-$45 dollars a barrel range if the war continues beyond
weeks despite the assurance of OPEC to increase the supply to keep prices stable.
Except from Indonesia and Malaysia who are net oil exporters, other ASEAN countries would be affected. Higher oil prices will put
inflationary pressures on ASEAN economies even though the inflation rates are still reasonably low in most ASEAN countries.
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AT: AUSTRALIAN PROLIF
No risk of Australian prolif
Berry 9 (Ken, Research Coordinator – International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, “The Beginning of
the End…? Devaluing Deterrence”, 9-18, http://www.nautilus.org:8080/GC/Nautilus/australia/A-J-disarm/researchworkshop/drafts/Berry-devaluing_deterrence.pdf)
It is probably also useful to point out in this general context that Australia is perhaps the exception to the presumed rule that if
the nuclear umbrella were withdrawn too quickly, it might itself seek to acquire nuclear weapons. That was certainly the
case in the 1950s and ’60s when active consideration was given to Australia’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, regardless of the
ANZUS Treaty and the US nuclear umbrella. However, sanity prevailed, and it can be fairly confidently predicted that is
not a prospect likely to raise its head ever again in Australia.
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AT: AUTO INDUSTRY COLLAPSE
The collapse of the auto industry is inevitable – Iraq War
Chicago Sun-Times 06 (Jesse Jackson, Chicago Sun-Times, December 12 2006, “Another Iraq Casualty: U.S. Auto Industry,”
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/1212-29.htm)
One casualty of the debacle in Iraq seldom gets much press, but the inevitable focus on the mess in Iraq too often overshadows other
vital challenges. The American automobile industry is hemorrhaging. Today, Ford will announce that it will offer buyouts to 85
percent of its salaried work force. Ford is looking to lay off a staggering 52,000 employees by September 2007. Chrysler has already
been merged with the German automaker Daimler-Benz. General Motors is gushing red ink. This industry has been America's
industrial stronghold since Henry Ford perfected the assembly line. After World War II, President Eisenhower's defense secretary, Charlie Wilson,
wasn't far off when he said, ''What's good for America is good for General Motors and vice versa.'' GM was America's signature company. Its unionized employees won
what became the foundation of the American Dream: secure jobs that paid a family wage, with health care, pensions and paid vacations. Now that social contract is
being shredded by the global marketplace. The foolish, ideological commitment to mindless trade policies over the last several decades has devastated Detroit. U.S.
automakers must now compete with companies from Europe and Japan that bear no health care costs. General Motors has about three retirees
for every one autoworker; Ford has two for every active employee. Toyota in this country has about 100 retirees in total. The health care and pension costs put U.S.
automakers at a staggering cost disadvantage: over $1,200 a car. If they compete on price, they lose money. If they don't compete, they lose market share. At the same
time, we desperately need the industry to move to hybrid and alternative-fuel cars. Detroit is ready to build cars that use alternative fuels made from corn or grasses.
But the oil industry that resists putting in the E85 (85 percent ethanol) pumps. These would cut the demand for oil drastically -- and
put a crimp in their record profits. The Ford layoffs alone will hit Michigan, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and Ohio big-time, and
states like Kentucky will feel the pain. It won't stop with the auto jobs. The auto suppliers, housing markets, hotels, the retail industries
that depend on the demand generated by relatively well-paid auto employees will be depressed. We see the pain caused by the steel
industry's decline. But the steel industry is a pimple compared with the rash of economic losses that the decline of Detroit will cause. Obviously, this crisis requires
urgent, intense national action. Are we prepared to let the auto industry die? If not, what steps can be taken to relieve the burdens of their health care and pension costs?
What should be expected from the automakers in return in terms of investment, jobs guarantees, fuel efficiency and alternative-fuel cars? What penalties or incentives
should be provided to the oil industry to force proliferation of alternative-fuel pumps in gas stations? How does all this fit into a concerted drive for energy
independence? Yet when the CEOs of the auto industry sought to meet with George W. Bush before the election, he canceled two meetings with them. When they
finally met, an obviously distracted president gave them all of one hour, and nothing was decided. This is catastrophic. Understandably, the president and his
advisers are focused on what may be the worst foreign policy debacle in our history, in Iraq. But the collapse of Detroit may well be
the equivalent defeat in our economic history. Surely our auto companies' futures cannot be left to a market in which their
competitors enjoy massive state subsidies and mercantile trade policies. We need a considered national policy for our industrial future.
We tend to think of Iraq as a crisis ''over there.'' In fact, it is taking casualties here at home. The cost of the war is evinced not just by
the brave men and women who are sacrificing life and limb, not just by the literal trillions of dollars that will be wasted, but by the
collapse of America's own economy. It remains neglected as our leaders focus on troubles abroad rather than threats here at home.
The US auto industry is in a recession – too many factors
Krisher 08 (Tom Krisher, Canadian TV, Globe and Mail, May 13 2008, “US auto industry is in a recession, GM exec says,”
http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080513.wgmoutlook0513/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business)
The U.S. auto industry is in a recession, General Motors Corp. president and chief operating officer Fritz Henderson said Tuesday.
The automaker's No. 2 executive said GM is selling below trends for the third straight year. He blamed the sales drop on the
troubled housing market, tight credit and higher gasoline prices that are sending consumers from trucks to cars at a rate much faster
than the company has ever seen. But Mr. Henderson told a conference of banking and insurance industry officials in Warren, Mich., that it has cut costs and rolled out
new products. GM also is seeing sales growth in emerging markets. He also said the first quarter was about in line with GM's expectations, but April's sales drop
surprised the company. He said GM sees more downside risk than upside opportunity for the remainder of 2008. The Detroit-based auto
maker cut its industry wide U.S. sales outlook for 2008 to between 15.3 million and 15.5 million light vehicles from 16 million at the
beginning of the year, largely due to plummeting sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles. That's still higher than Ford Motor Co., which is forecasting 15 million.
Some industry analysts have gone below 15 million, a 14-year low. Mr. Henderson said the 11-week strike at parts supplier American Axle and
Manufacturing Holdings Inc. has had only a minimal effect on the company's retail sales, largely because it had built up a large inventory of pickup trucks and sport
utility vehicles at a time when the market shifted to smaller vehicles. American Axle makes axles, drive shafts and stabilizer bars mainly for GM's larger vehicles. Mr.
Henderson said the strike cost GM $800-million (U.S.) in earnings before taxes in the first quarter, and he said the company agreed to American Axle's request to kick
in $200-million to help end the work stoppage by the United Auto Workers. "We agreed to do that because we think it would be the most helpful thing we could do" to
end the strike, mr. Henderson said. "We're working hard to not be involved in those day-to-day negotiations." Mike DiGiovanni, GM's executive director of global
market and industry analysis, told the conference the economy will rebound in the second half of the year but the pace would be sluggish. "We're starting to think that
perhaps the trough of this downturn is going to occur in the second quarter," he said. Mr. DiGiovanni said the threat of a huge credit crunch has passed, and he predicted
home prices likely are to fall further. Home construction, which has a big impact on pickup truck sales, may be near the bottom of a slump, and
the rate of decline is slowing, he said. "I guarantee you pickup sales will come back," he said. GM in the past has focused its
advertising too heavily on trucks, but is in the process of shifting that "to a new plan that's really going to focus on miles per gallon,"
Mr. DiGiovanni said. He also said GM will roll out 14 new cars and crossover vehicles in the next 18 months, but only one new truck. GM shares fell 36 cents, or 1.7
per cent, to $20.40, in morning trading.
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AT: BALKAN INSTABILITY
1. Instability inevitable – Kosovo and Bosnia tensions without EU oversight
Wall Street Journal 2009: Balkan Troubles. http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/analysis/15869/
Bosnia and Kosovo have largely disappeared from public view. Washington and Brussels are hoping the promise of European Union
accession will ultimately triumph over remaining ethnic tensions in the region. Would that this were so. Rather, a divided EU is
allowing the Balkans to slide toward greater instability, while the U.S. remains mostly on the sidelines. America's massive investment in the
region in the 1990s may go the way of the subprime market. Bosnia is a nonfunctioning state living under the constant threat its autonomous Serb
region to hold a referendum on independence. The Bosnian Muslim prime minister wants to throw out the Dayton agreement that
concluded the Bosnia war in 1995, end Serb autonomy and form a unitary state. Western oversight has failed to ease the tensions
among ethnic groups. The wounds of war are still raw. Newly independent Kosovo, unrecognized by two-thirds of the world's states -including five EU members -- barely functions after 10 years of U.N. rule. It has high unemployment and little foreign investment and
needs enormous foreign assistance. Most politically damaging to the new state is the largely Serb-inhabited northern part of Kosovo, which continues to be run
from Belgrade without vigorous objections from the EU or the U.S. This in effect partitions the fragile Kosovo state and cements continued ethnic tensions. The root
cause for most of this instability still rests in Belgrade. Although its new government is eager to become part of the EU, it insists on
governing Serbs in Kosovo and is doing everything possible to reverse its independence. In Bosnia, Belgrade is working with Moscow
to strengthen Serb autonomy with political and particularly economic support. Despite its constant assurance to seek a European
future, Serbia remains mired in the past, failing to turn indicted war criminal Ratko Mladic over to the Hague Tribunal. The EU, which
believes that Serbia is the center of the Balkans, is doing little to pull it out of the muck. All member states seem to subscribe to the
assumption that, under pro-EU President Boris Tadic, Serbia must be permitted to pursue the process of EU accession -- irrespective of its
policies toward Kosovo and Bosnia and the fact that Serbia does not meet EU requirements for political and economic reform.
2. Empirically denied – wars in Serbia, Bosnia, and Kosovo during the 90’s should have caused the impacts.
3. NATO solves the impact – can bargain within its political institutions and member states to force conflict resolution
Erik Yesson (Ph.D. in politics from Princeton University and specializes in international security and military affairs) 2003: Sending
Credible Signals: NATO’s Role in Stabilizing Balkan Conflicts. http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/01-03/yesson.pdf
There is also no question that NATO members employed a lowest common denominator approach during the Kosovo campaign. This
process bid down the intensity of the opening air strikes against Yugoslavia. It was difficult for the allies to signal their resolve because they rules out
the use of ground forces and bombed from an altitude that insured ground fire could not down allied aircraft. Allied states creatively avoided domestic audience costs.
Those contributing directly to the air attacks had a great deal of support from the public and opposition politicians. Meanwhile states
whose publics and political opposition rejected the air campaign—Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Czech Republic, for example—did not
participate directly in offensive military operations against Yugoslavia, sparing them from public rebuke. But these difficulties were
surmountable within NATO’s existing political institutions. In the end air strikes far less punishing than those launched on Iraq in
1991 imposed sufficient political costs on Belgrade to force a settlement. NATO is a “consensus-making machine.” This means that
the allies will make compromises. While the allies should be prepared for hard bargaining and internal debate—inevitable in any democratic alliance—they
need not overhaul their alliance to pursue out-of-area peace and security operations. Current structures allow for building a consensus and sending
credible signals. The reality is simply that some out-of-area operations are harder than others. In the future, intra-alliance debate on out-of-area interventions will
likely focus on the degree of difficulty such operations pose. Answers to that question will inform first-order decision making on whether to intervene in the first place.
4. Balkan war won’t happen–regional powers have incentives to cooperate and relations are too solid
BURNS 2006 (Nicholas, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, U.S. Department of State, “Knocking on NATO’s Open Door,” Feb 19, http://zagreb.usembassy.gov/issues/060221.htm)
A decade ago, the countries of Southeast Europe were reeling from the impact of Europe's bloodiest war in half a century. With the determined intervention of
NATO, genocide and ethnic cleansing in Bosnia were brought to an end; a few years later in Kosovo, NATO again intervened to end ethnic cleansing in the region.
Southeast Europe seemed to some a tangle of intractable inter-ethnic conflicts in which only massive international peacekeeping
deployments could keep the warring parties apart. But the United States and its friends in the region looked to tell a different story: one that would require friends to make
hard choices for the sake of a peaceful and prosperous future for their people. Today's story is indeed different, in part thanks to the tremendous efforts of Albania, Croatia and
Macedonia. The region's nascent democracies have largely normalized their relations. Peacekeeping contingents have downsized, and a
return to war is unlikely. The region is not only increasingly stable, but it contributes to international coalitions that work to end
conflicts elsewhere. Southeast Europe is on the path to changing from being a consumer to a provider of security. On February 13 in
Washington, the United States hosted the Foreign Ministers of Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia to discuss recent accomplishments of these members of the Adriatic Charter, or "A3." Founded
in May 2003, the A3 brings Albania, Croatia and Macedonia into a partnership with the United States to advance their individual and collective candidacies for NATO and other Euro-Atlantic
institutions. Serbia and Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina were present as observers. At the meeting, we reviewed A3 progress on their individual NATO Membership Action Plans, and
sought ways to bring NATO membership closer. We also shared lessons learned from deployments in international coalitions. Finally, we recommitted ourselves to our cooperation as friends
and, if reforms continue to meet necessary standards, full Allies in the greatest Alliance in history: NATO. Not so long ago, such goals would have been impossible to imagine. The countries of
With fresh memories of war and dictatorship, the A3 partners share a resolve to strengthen their
democratic institutions, market economies and human rights, and to fight corruption and crime. The path to NATO and the European
Union promotes a positive cycle of change: the more candidate countries do to pursue reforms required for membership, the more
support they get for the accession process. Though difficult, the reforms are key to lasting peace and prosperity in the region.
the region have worked hard to gain this new status.
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AT: BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS
1. Global biodiversity at its highest point ever
Bjorn Lomborg, Professor Political Science, University of Aarhus (Denmark), 2004, The skeptical environmentalist: measuring the
real state of the world, p. 249
However, the rate at which species have become extinct has fluctuated over the various periods, and the number of species has
generally increased up to our time, as can be seen in Figure 130. Never before have there been so many species as there are now. The
growth in the number of families and species can be accredited to a process of specialization which is both due to the fact that the
Earth’s physical surroundings have become more diverse and a result of all other species becoming more specialized. Even so, there have
been several major occurrences of extinction—the best known of these is probably the last break in the curve 65 million years ago when most of the dinosaurs became
extinct, but the most serious one occurred 245 million years ago when around half of all marine animals and four-legged vertebrates and two-thirds of all insects were
wiped out.
2. Empirically denied – human impact on extinction rate nothing new—we have historically extended our influence
We do not agree with the gendered language in this card
Bjorn Lomborg, Professor Political Science, University of Aarhus (Denmark), 2004, The skeptical environmentalist: measuring the
real state of the world, p. 251
In the natural environment species are constantly dying in competition with other species. It is estimated that more than 95 percent of all species that have ever existed
are now extinct. A species typically survives 1-10 million years. Translated to the case of our described 1.6 million species, we must reckon with a natural extinction
of around two species every decade. Table 6 shows that about 25 species have become extinct every decade since 1600. Thus, what we see
is clearly not just natural extinction. Actually, mankind has long been a major cause of extinction . Around the time of the last ice age, about 33
major families of mammals and birds were eradicated—an extremely large number, considering only 13 families had become extinct within the 1.5 million years prior
to that. It is presumed that Stone Age man hunted these 33 families to extinction. The Polynesians have colonized most of the 800 or so islands in the
Pacific over the last 12,000 years. Because the birds on these islands had developed without much competition they were extremely easy to catch and were therefore
frequently hunted to extinction. By studying bones from archaeological excavations it has been estimated that the Polynesians in total have eradicated around 2,000
species of birds, or more than 20 percent of all current bird species. Mankind, then, has long been a cause of an increase in the extinction rate.
3. Captive breeding prevents extinction
Richard B. Primack, Professor of Biology @ Duke University, 2002, Essentials of Conservation Biology,
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~dallan/nre220/outline23.htm
Captive breeding and subsequent re-introduction of a threatened species is an important and in some cases very successful tool for
species conservation. Critics point to the need to conserve/restore habitat, list examples of failures, decry the cost, and argue we
should rescue species before they are on the brink of oblivion. Fair enough. But, captive breeding saved the bison. Wolves roam
Yellowstone and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the Peregrine Falcon is off the endangered species list, golden-lion tamarins thrive
in the Brazilian forests, whooping cranes perform their mating dances along river banks in the west, and many more species might
similarly be rescued. Zoos, botanical gardens and aquaria have found new purpose and direction, providing a safety net when other
protective measures have failed.
4. Loss of a single species does not collapse ecosystems: resiliency prevents any big impacts
Roger A Sedjo, Sr. Fellow, Resources for the Future, 2000, Conserving Nature’s Biodiversity: insights from biology, ethics and
economics, eds. Van Kooten, Bulte and Sinclair, p. 114
As a critical input into the existence of humans and of life on earth, biodiversity obviously has a very high value (at least to humans).
But, as with other resource questions, including public goods, biodiversity is not an either/or question, but rather a question of “how
much.” Thus, we may argue as to how much biodiversity is desirable or is required for human life (threshold) and how much is
desirable (insurance) and at what price, just as societies argue over the appropriate amount and cost of national defense. As discussed
by Simpson, the value of water is small even though it is essential to human life, while diamonds are inessential but valuable to
humans. The reason has to do with relative abundance and scarcity, with market value pertaining to the marginal unit. This waterdiamond paradox can be applied to biodiversity. Although biological diversity is essential, a single species has only limited value,
since the global system will continue to function without that species. Similarly, the value of a piece of biodiversity (e.g., 10 ha of
tropical forest) is small to negligible since its contribution to the functioning of the global biodiversity is negligible. The global
ecosystem can function with “somewhat more” or “somewhat less” biodiversity, since there have been larger amounts in times past
and some losses in recent times. Therefore, in the absence of evidence to indicate that small habitat losses threaten the functioning of
the global life support system, the value of these marginal habitats is negligible. The “value question” is that of how valuable to the
life support function are species at the margin. While this, in principle, is an empirical question, in practice it is probably unknowable.
However, thus far, biodiversity losses appear to have had little or no effect on the functioning of the earth’s life support system,
presumably due to the resiliency of the system, which perhaps is due to the redundancy found in the system. Through most of its
existence, earth has had far less biological diversity. Thus, as in the water-diamond paradox, the value of the marginal unit of
biodiversity appears to be very small.
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EXT #1: NO EXTINCTIONS NOW
EXTINCTION RATE IS AND WILL REMAIN LOW
Bjorn Lomborg, Professor Political Science, University of Aarhus (Denmark), 2004, The skeptical environmentalist: measuring the
real state of the world, p. 255
In fact, the latest model calculations seem to back the observations. Biologists Mawdsley and Stork have shown, on the basis of information from Great Britain, that
there is a fairly constant relationship between the rates of extinction of different species. If this model is used it is actually possible to estimate
the number of extinct birds from the number of extinct insects and, amazingly, these figures fit very well. Using this model it is possible to show that since
1600, 0.14 percent of all insects have died out, or 0.0047 percent per decade. But as we saw above, the extinction rate is on its way
up. For this reason – and for safety’s sake – Mawdsley and Stork use an extremely high estimate by Professor Smith which says that
the extinction rate will increase 12- to 55-fold over the next 300 years. This still means that the extinction rate for all animals will
remain below 0.208 percent per decade and probably be about 0.7 percent per 50 years.
WE HAVE PASSED THE PERIOD OF MASS EXTINCTIONS—NO MORE EXTINCTIONS COMING
Alison Motluk, Freelance Writer, 2002, Salon.com, book review, “Future Evolution” by Peter Ward, January 29,
http://www.salon.com/books/review/2002/01/29/ward/
But Ward's Big Idea is a fascinating one. (Good thing, too, as this isn't the first book he's written on the topic.) Unlike the doomsayers
out there, he doesn't think there's another mass extinction looming. Rather, he's convinced it's well underway, and that the worst is
already over. Most of the big mammals that are going to die off already have. Among those no longer with us are the mastodons, the
mammoths, the saber-toothed tiger, the giant short-faced bear. "It is visible in the rear-view mirror, a roadkill already turned into
geologic litter -- bones not yet even petrified -- the end of the Age of Megamammals," he writes.
ACTUAL EXTINCTION RATE IS LOW -- .08% PER YEAR
Bjorn Lomborg, Professor Political Science, University of Aarhus (Denmark), 2004, The skeptical environmentalist: measuring the
real state of the world, p. 254-5
The result can be read in the book by Whitmore and Sayer published in 1992 – and its conclusions do not exactly make boring reading. Heywood and Stuart
point out that the recorded extinction figures for mammals and birds (see Table 6) are “very small.” If the extinction rates are similar
for other species and if we assume 30 million species, we get an annual extinction rate of 2,300 or 0.8 percent a decade. Since the area
of the rainforest has been reduced by approximately 20 percent since the 1830s, “it must be assumed that during this contraction, very
large numbers of species have been lost in some areas. Yet surprisingly there is no clear-cut evidence for this.”
EXTINCTION RATE LESS THAN 1% PER YEAR
POLICY REVIEW, December 2001, p. http://www.policyreview.org/DEC01/jewett.html (WFU67)
The loss of thousands of species per year? About 1,600,000 species have been identified. Estimates of the actual number of species range from 2,000,000 to 80,000,000 .
No one knows the rate of extinction or the rate at which new species are arising. The best current estimate based on actual
observations, and using an extremely high estimate of the likely increase in the extinction rate, is that about seven-tenths of 1 percent
of species may go extinct over the next 50 years.
SPECIES EXTINCTION FIGURES EXAGGERATED
Bjorn Lomborg, Professor Political Science, University of Aarhus (Denmark), 2004, The skeptical environmentalist: measuring the
real state of the world, p. 249
Although these assertions of massive extinction of species have been repeated everywhere you look, they simply do not equate with
the available evidence. The story is important, because it shows how figures regarding the extinction of 25-100 percent of all the
species on Earth within our lifetime provide the political punch to put conservation of endangered species high on the agenda. Punch
which the more realistic figure of 0.7 percent over the next 50 years would not achieve to the same degree.
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EXT #2 – EMPERICALLY DENIED
HUMAN-INDUCED EXTINCTIONS NOTHING NEW
Environment 1997, No. 7, Volume 39, September, p. 16
Humans have been causing the extinction of plants and animals for thousands of years. Large mammals such as horses and
mammoths disappeared from the Americas and Australia between 15,000 and 35,000 years ago when humans first moved onto these
continents. Similarly, human colonization of the islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans some 1,000 to 2,000 years ago (and the
resulting introduction of domestic animals such as rats, dogs, and pigs) may have led to the extinction of as many as one-fourth of the
world’s bird species.
ECOSYSTEMS RECOVER FROM HUMAN DAMAGE
Douglas Boucher, Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies, Fall 1996, SCIENCE AND SOCIETY, p. 283 (BLUEOC 0120)
Humans have been able to drive thousands of species to extinction, severely impoverish the soil, alter weather patterns, dramatically
lower the biodiversity of natural communities, and incidentally cause great suffering for their posterity. They have not generally been
able to prevent nature from growing back. As ecosystems are transformed, species are eliminated - but opportunities are created for
new ones. The natural world is changed, but never totally destroyed.
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EXT #3 – CAPTIVE BREEDING
CAPTIVE BREEDING PROGRAMS HAVE PREVENTED EXTINCTION
Kirsten Weir, editor, Current Science, 2005, “Born to be wild: can zoos save endangered animals from extinction?” January, 7,
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BFU/is_9_90/ai_n9505524
Despite those obstacles, several captive-born species have been successfully reintroduced to their native habitats--including some that
had gone extinct in the wild. (See "Success Stories.") Such happy endings suggest that captive breeding can play a valuable role in
conservation plans.
ZOOS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD CONSERVATIONISM AS THEIR MAIN ETHICAL OBJECTIVE*
Donald G. Lindburg, Zoology Society of San Diego, 2003, The Animal Ethics Reader, eds. Armstrong & Botzler, p. 471*
It is widely recognized that the original objective of zoos in maintaining collections of wild animals can no longer be condoned.
Modern-day zoos, therefore, have redefined their missions in light of questions about the right to hold animals captive and the
relevance and humaneness of this practice. They have done so by aligning themselves with conservationist objectives, a process that
has entailed the investment of substantial resources in education, improved training of staff, modernization of exhibits, breeding, and
in some cases, reintroductions, and research designed to improve health, welfare, and propagation efforts. The modern zoo also takes
note of the world-wide decline in populations and their habitats and increasingly envisions a time when at least some species will exist
only within their confines. For the vast majority of those who labor in the profession, therefore, pride of achievement and a personal
sense of fulfillment are commonly found. Indeed, for most it is a pursuit to be nobly and passionately held.
ZOOS COMMITED TO THE HOLISTIC GOALS OF SPECIES PRESERVATION – DOES NOT MEAN THAT ANIMAL
WELFARE IS DISCOUNTED*
Donald G. Lindburg, Zoology Society of San Diego, 2003, The Animal Ethics Reader, eds. Armstrong & Botzler, p. 478-9*
It is fair to presume that zoo professionals are strongly committed to animal welfare, but less so to animal rights. Theirs is a
profession that, by its very nature, shares the holistic ethic, viz., that preservationist goals can only be achieved by unfailingly giving
highest priority to collections of individuals. Zoo professionals frequently find individual welfare and species preservation to be in
conflict and in such cases will give higher priority to the preservation of species. It does not follow, as it often claimed, that there is
indifference to the interests of individuals or lack of respect for them. In fact, goals of species preservation are more likely to be
realized where the lives of individuals are given the highest respect, and where every effort is made to safeguard their interests. These
dual concerns indicate that those who toil in zoos readily embrace the ethical pluralism that offers a basis for reconciliation with any
who question the morality of their acts.
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EXT #4 – RESILLIENCE
ECOSYSTEMS HISTORICALLY RESILIENT –LITTLE EXTINCTION DESPITE MASSIVE ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTIONS
Niles Eldredge, Curator-in-Chief of “Hall of Biodiversity” American Museum of Natural History, 2000, Species, Speciation and the
Environment, October, http://www.actionbioscience.org/evolution/eldredge.html
Instead of prompting adaptive change through natural selection, environmental change instead causes organisms to seek familiar
habitats to which they are already adapted. In other words, "habitat tracking," rather than "adaptation tracking" is the most expected
biological reaction to environmental change -- which is now understood to be inevitable. For example: During the past 1.65 million
years, there have been four major, and many minor, episodes of global cooling resulting in the southward surge of huge fields of
glacial ice in both North America and Eurasia.
Yet, despite this rhythmically cyclical pattern of profound climate change, extinction and evolution throughout the Pleistocene was
surprisingly negligible. Instead, ecosystems (e.g., tundra, boreal forest, mixed hardwood forest, etc.) migrated south in front of the
advancing glaciers. Though there was much disruption, most plant species (through their seed propagules) and animal species were
able to migrate, find "recognizable" habitat, and survive pretty much unchanged throughout the Pleistocene Epoch. Botanist Margaret
Davis6 and colleagues, and entomologist G. R. Coope7 have provided especially well-documented and graphic examples of habitat
tracking as a source of survival of species throughout the Pleistocene.
GENERAL BIODIVERSITY ADVANTAGES DON’T APPLY TO SAVING PARTICULAR SPECIES – MARGINAL BENEFITS
OF PARTICULAR BIODIVERSITY SMALL
Roger A Sedjo, Sr. Fellow, Resources for the Future, 2000, Conserving Nature’s Biodiversity: insights from biology, ethics and
economics, eds. Van Kooten, Bulte and Sinclair, p. 120-1
Some biodiversity is necessary for human existence, so in some sense some biodiversity is infinitely valuable. However, at the
margin, biodiversity is less critical to human life and thus less valuable. How valuable is biodiversity as an input into pharmaceutical
products? There are two possible answers to this question. First, the values may be substantial, but the absence of clear, well-defined
property rights may make the resource rents difficult to capture. The absence of property rights may result in the market and the social
system substantially undervaluing these resources. Hence the inadvertent losses of wild genetic resources may reflect not their low
value, but the inability to capture that value due to the absence of adequate property rights. Second, it may be that biodiversity, like a
lottery, has only limited value at the margin. For example, there may be so much wild genetic resources available that any particular
part of this stock has only a very low expected value. Reviewing the evidence, we find that there has been some emergence of
property rights for valuable common property resources, as anticipated by Demsetz. However, the evidence also finds relatively few
natural product based drugs being developed by pharmaceuticals, and there is some evidence that developers are losing interest.
Furthermore, a recent study by Simpson et al (1996) suggests that the marginal value of wild genetic resources as input into
pharmaceuticals is at most modest and probably very small. The conclusion therefore, is that the contribution of biological diversity to
the production of products and services (viz, ecosystem function) is small, mainly because such values are relevant only at the margin.
Unless biodiversity has significant value as a final consumption “good”, principally existence value, the economic case for incurring
large costs to protect biodiversity at the margin is weak.
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR INVISIBLE THRESHOLD OR CATASTROPHIC, NON-LINEAR ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS FROM
SPECIES LOSS
R. David Simpson, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future, 2000, Conserving Nature’s Biodiversity: insights from biology, ethics
and economics, eds. Van Kooten, Bulte and Sinclair, p. 100
Another important assumption underlying much of foregoing discussion is that things are generally continuous. This means that small
actions have small effects. Reducing habitat by a small amount, for example, results in small reduction in biodiversity supported in
that habitat. This assumption is not innocuous, because many biologists are concerned with radical discontinuities. The state of a
system may change suddenly when a threshold is exceeded, or a little additional degradation may result in an irreversible unraveling.
At the risk of sounding cavalier about such an important issue, let me just say that natural scientists have failed to convince this
reasonably inquisitive layperson of the likelihood and imminence of such threats.
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AT: BIOFUELS KILL ENVIRONMENT
Second-generation biofuels solve environmental concerns
United Press International 9, Ecoworld, October 1, “Trash Based Biofuels May Solve Critical Environmental Problems”,
http://www.ecoworld.com/energy-fuels/trash-based-biofuels-might-solve-problems.html
Singaporean and Swiss scientists say using trash to produce biofuels might help solve the world’s growing energy crisis and also
reduce carbon emissions. The researchers said current biofuels produced from crops require an increase in crop production, which has its own severe
environmental costs. However, second-generation biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol derived from processed urban waste, might offer dramatic
emissions savings without the environmental catch. “Our results suggest that fuel from processed waste biomass, such as paper and
cardboard, is a promising clean energy solution,” said Associate Professor Hugh Tan of the National University of Singapore. “If developed fully this
biofuel could simultaneously meet part of the world’s energy needs, while also combating carbon emissions and fossil fuel
dependency.” The team found 82.93 billion liters of cellulosic ethanol could be produced from the world’s landfill waste and by substituting gasoline with the
resulting biofuel, global carbon emissions could be cut by figures ranging from 29.2 percent to 86.1 percent for every unit of energy produced. The study that included
researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich appears in the journal Global Change Biology: Bioenergy.
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AT: BIOPOWER
Biopower is neither inherently good, nor bad. Our specific context is more important than their sweeping generalization.
Dickinson 04 - Associate Professor, History Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley - 2004 (Edward Ross, “Biopolitics, Fascism, Democracy: Some
Reflections on Our Discourse About “Modernity,” Central European History, vol. 37, no. 1, 1–48)
This notion is not at all at odds with the core of Foucauldian (and Peukertian) theory. Democratic welfare states are regimes of power/knowledge no less than early
twentieth-century totalitarian states; these systems are not “opposites,” in the sense that they are two alternative ways of organizing the same thing. But they are
two very different ways of organizing it. The concept “power” should not be read as a universal stifling night of oppression, manipulation,
and entrapment, in which all political and social orders are grey, are essentially or effectively “the same.” Power is a set of social
relations, in which individuals and groups have varying degrees of autonomy and effective subjectivity. And discourse is, as Foucault
argued, “tactically polyvalent.” Discursive elements (like the various elements of biopolitics) can be combined in different ways to form
parts of quite different strategies (like totalitarianism or the democratic welfare state); they cannot be assigned to one place in a
structure, but rather circulate. The varying possible constellations of power in modern societies create “multiple modernities,”
modern societies with quite radically differing potentials.91
Biopower is not genocidal when it is deployed by a government which also respects rights.
Dickinson 04 - Associate Professor, History Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley - 2004 (Edward Ross, “Biopolitics, Fascism, Democracy: Some
Reflections on Our Discourse About “Modernity,” Central European History, vol. 37, no. 1, 1–48)
At its simplest, this view of the politics of expertise and professionalization is certainly plausible. Historically speaking, however, the further conjecture that
this “micropolitical” dynamic creates authoritarian, totalitarian, or homicidal potentials at the level of the state does not seem very
tenable. Historically, it appears that the greatest advocates of political democracy —in Germany left liberals and Social Democrats —have
been also the greatest advocates of every kind of biopolitical social engineering, from public health and welfare programs through
social insurance to city planning and, yes, even eugenics.102 The state they built has intervened in social relations to an (until recently)
ever-growing degree; professionalization has run ever more rampant in Western societies; the production of scientistic and technocratic expert knowledge has
proceeded at an ever more frenetic pace. And yet, from the perspective of the first years of the millennium, the second half of the twentieth century
appears to be the great age of democracy in precisely those societies where these processes have been most in evidence. What is
more, the interventionist state has steadily expanded both the rights and the resources of virtually every citizen — including those who
were stigmatized and persecuted as biologically defective under National Socialism. Perhaps these processes have created an ever more restrictive “iron cage” of
rationality in European societies. But if so, it seems clear that there is no necessary correlation between rationalization and authoritarian
politics; the opposite seems in fact to be at least equally true.
Not all biopolitics bring about genocide—it trivializes Nazism to say that all enactments of the state of exception are
equivalent.
Rabinow & Rose 03 (Paul, Professor of Anthropology at UC Berkeley, Nikolas, Professor of Sociology @ the London School of
Economics, “Thoughts On The Concept of Biopower Today,” December 10, 2003, http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/sociology/
pdf/RabinowandRose-BiopowerToday03.pdf, pg. 8-9)
Agamben takes seriously Adorno’s challenge “how is it possible to think after Auschwitz?” But for that very reason, it is to trivialize
Auschwitz to apply Schmitt’s concept of the state of exception and Foucault’s analysis of biopower to every instance where living
beings enter the scope of regulation, control and government. The power to command under threat of death is exercised by States and their
surrogates in multiple instances, in micro forms and in geopolitical relations. But this is not to say that this form of power commands backed up by the ultimate
threat of death is the guarantee or underpinning principle of all forms of biopower in contemporary liberal societies . Unlike Agamben, we do
not think that : the jurist the doctor, the scientist, the expert, the priest depend for their power over life upon an alliance with the State (1998: 122).
Nor is it useful to use this single diagram to analyze every contemporary instance of thanato-politics from Rwanda to the epidemic of AIDS deaths across Africa.
Surely the essence of critical thought must be its capacity to make distinctions that can facilitate judgment and action .
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AT: BIOTERRORISM
No risk of bioterror – it’s too technically difficult
Washington Post 04 (12/30, “Technical Hurdles Separate Terrorists From Biowarfare.” John Mintz, staff writer. Lexis.)
In 2002, a panel of biowarfare experts concluded in a report co-published by the National Defense University (NDU) that while terrorists could
mount some small-scale bioattacks, larger assaults would require them to overcome many technical hurdles. Some key biotechnologies would be
achievable only three to four years from then, the panel found. "When we sent out the report for review to [hands-on] bench scientists, we got the response, 'What do
you mean we can't do this? We're doing it now,' " said Raymond Zilinskas, a co-author of the report who heads biowarfare studies at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies, a California think tank. "It shows how fast the field is moving." Those skeptical of the prospect of large-scale bioattacks cite the tiny number of biological
strikes in recent decades. Members of the Rajneeshee cult sickened 750 people in 1984 when they contaminated salad bars in 10 Oregon restaurants with salmonella.
Among the few others were the 2001 anthrax attacks through the U.S. mail that killed five people. One reason for the small number of attacks is that
nearly every aspect of a bioterrorist's job is difficult . The best chance of acquiring the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, is either from commercial
culture collections in countries with lax security controls, or by digging in soil where livestock recently died of the disease -- a tactic Aum Shinrikyo tried
unsuccessfully in the Australian Outback. Once virulent stocks of anthrax have been cultured, it is no trivial task to propagate pathogens with the
required attributes for an aerosolized weapon: the hardiness to survive in an enclosed container and upon release into the atmosphere,
the ability to lodge in the lungs, and the toxicity to kill. The particles' size is crucial: If they are too big, they fall to the ground, and if they are too small,
they are exhaled from the body. If they are improperly made, static electricity can cause them to clump. Making a bug that defeats antibiotics , a desired goal
for any bioweaponeer, is relatively simple but can require laborious trial and error, because conferring antibiotic resistance often reduces a bioweapon's killing
power. Field-testing germ weapons is necessary even for experienced weapons makers, and that is likely to require open spaces where animals or even people can be
experimentally infected. Each bioagent demands specific weather conditions and requires unforgiving specifications for the spraying
device employed. "Dry" anthrax is harder to make -- it requires special equipment, and scientists must perform the dangerous job of milling particles to the right size.
"Wet" anthrax is easier to produce but not as easily dispersed. Experts agree that anthrax is the potential mass-casualty agent most accessible to terrorists. The anthrax
letter sent in 2001 to then-Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) contained one gram of anthrax, or 1 trillion spores.
Even if terrorists have bioweapons, there’s no way they can disperse them
Smithson 05 (Amy E., PhD, project director for biological weapons at the Henry L. Stimson Center. “Likelihood of Terrorists
Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons”. http://www.stimson.org/cbw/?SN=CB2001121259]
Terrorists cannot count on just filling the delivery system with agent, pointing the device, and flipping the switch to activate it. Facets
that must be deciphered include the concentration of agent in the delivery system, the ways in which the delivery system degrades the
potency of the agent, and the right dosage to incapacitate or kill human or animal targets. For open-air delivery, the meteorological
conditions must be taken into account. Biological agents have extreme sensitivity to sunlight, humidity, pollutants in the atmosphere,
temperature, and even exposure to oxygen, all of which can kill the microbes. Biological agents can be dispersed in either dry or wet forms. Using a dry
agent can boost effectiveness because drying and milling the agent can make the particles very fine, a key factor since particles must range between 1 to 10 ten microns,
ideally to 1 to 5, to be breathed into the lungs. Drying an agent, however, is done through a complex and challenging process that requires a sophistication of
equipment and know-how that terrorist organizations are unlikely to possess. The alternative is to develop a wet slurry, which is much easier to
produce but a great deal harder to disperse effectively. Wet slurries can clog sprayers and undergo mechanical stresses that can kill 95 percent or more of the
microorganisms.
(__) No extinction
Gregg Easterbrook, The New Republic Editor, 2001 ["The Real Danger is Nuclear: The Big One," 11/5, http://www.tnr.com/110501/easterbrook110501.html]
Psychologically, it may be that society can only concentrate on one threat at a time. But if that's the case--anthrax letters
notwithstanding--the focus is in the wrong place. Biological weapons are bad, but so far none has ever caused an epidemic or worked
in war. And it is possible that none ever will: Biological agents are notoriously hard to culture and to disperse, while living things have
gone through four billion years of evolution that render them resistant to runaway organisms. Having harmed only a few people thus
far, the anthrax scare may tell us as much about bioterrorism's limitations as about its danger.
(__) Doctors and treatment check bio terror
Gregg Easterbrook, The New Republic Editor, 2003 [The New York Times, "The Smart Way to be Scared," 2/16, http://www.newagepointofinfinity.com/homeland_security.htm]
None of this means bioweapons are not dangerous. But in actual use, biological agents often harm less than expected, partly for the simple
evolutionary reason that people have immune systems that fight pathogens. Also, as overall public health keeps improving, resistance
to bioagents continues to increase. Conceivably, being in a duct-taped room could protect you if a plane dropping anthrax spores were
flying over. Smallpox, on the other hand, must be communicated person to person. Those in the immediate area of an outbreak might
be harmed, but as soon as word got out, health authorities would isolate the vicinity and stop the spread . By the time you knew to rush to your
sealed room, you would either already be infected or the emergency would be over. Another point skipped in the public debate: smallpox is awful and highly
contagious, but with modern treatment usually not fatal. Anthrax doesn't necessarily kill, either, as the nation learned in 2001. Only in
movies can mists of mysterious bioagents cause people to drop like stones. In reality, pathogens make people ill; medical workers rush
in and save most of the exposed. If germs merely leave sick people whom doctors may heal, terrorists may favor conventional
explosives that are certain to kill.
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EXT #1 – NO RISK
No risk of bio terror – almost every other form of terrorism is more feasible and there is not risk of extinction from it
Anthony Lake, G-Town Diplomacy Prof, 2001
[The Georgetown Public Policy Review, "Bioterrorism: Interview with Anthony Lake," Spring, LN]
It's much harder to develop a biological weapon than a chemical weapon and much, much harder than using computers for terrorist
action. So, if you're calculating probabilities, then bioterrorism, probably even more than some forms of nuclear terrorism, is relatively
unlikely. I do not walk around everyday worrying that people are dumping microbes in the ventilation ducts of the building I'm in. If
we allow ourselves to become scared of this, then in a way, the terrorists have won. If we alter our behavior too much beyond prudent
or preventative and preparatory efforts, then the terrorists have won. I don't think the chances are at all high that this will happen; in
fact, I think they're very very low. However, the fact is that the Aum Shirinkyo was trying to develop biological weapons and probably
used sarin because the Japanese police were closing in on them. (I believe they lost a scientist in the process of trying to develop
biological weapons.) We should lament any death, anywhere, but that would be low on the list of lamentations. So while it's very
unlikely, it is possible, and in fact we have entered the age in which there have been active efforts to try to develop biological
weapons.
No risk of chemical or biological terrorism – tech is difficult to produce and it wouldn’t lead to extinction
Steve Bowman, CRS Researcher, 1999
["Weapons of Mass Destruction- the Terrorist Threat," 12/18, w/ Helit Barel,
http://news.findlaw.com/hdocs/docs/crs/wpnsmssdst120899.pdf]
Chemical. Toxic industrial chemicals such as chlorine or phosgene are easily available and do not require great expertise to be adapted
into chemical weapons. Nerve agents are more difficult to produce, and require a synthesis of multiple precursor chemicals.15 They
also require high-temperature processes and create dangerous byproducts, which makes their production unlikely outside of an
advanced laboratory. Blister agents such as mustard can be manufactured with relative ease, but also require large quantities of
precursor chemicals. The production and transfer of CW precursor chemicals is internationally monitored under the Chemical
Weapons Convention, providing some degree of control over their distribution16 Aerosol or vapor forms are the most effective for
dissemination, which can be carried out by sprayers or an explosive device. However, agents are vulnerable to temperature, moisture
and wind, and would therefore be most effectively used on an indoor population. The Aum Shinrikyo again provides an example of
the unpredictable effectiveness of chemical weapons. Although the cult was able to produce the nerve agent Sarin and release it in a
closed environment — the Tokyo subway — the attack resulted only in 12 fatalities and injury to hundreds of others, whereas there
were 301 fatalities and 5,000 injured in the conventional bombing of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Too many obstacles—technical difficulties
Audrey Kurth Cronin, Specialist in Terrorism Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division. March 28, 20 03 “Terrorist
Motivations for Chemical and Biological Weapons Use: Placing the Threat in Context” CRS
There are at least four reasons why terrorist groups like Al Qaeda might avoid using chem-bio agents in attacks against the United
States and its interests. First and most important, the technical difficulties in carrying out such attacks continue to be significant.
Aum Shinrikyo is a good example of a group that had unusually favorable circumstances for producing chemical and biological
weapons, including money, facilities, time and expertise, yet they were unable to do so effectively. Some experts argue that Aum
Shinrikyo’s experience, which included problems ranging from obtaining biological seed cultures to effectively disseminating
them to chemical leaks and accidents, is as easily a warning of the technical challenges involved as it is an example for future
groups.20 For most nonstate actors, difficulties with acquiring materials, maintaining them, transforming them into weapons, and
disseminating them effectively are numerous. While many technical advances have occurred in recent years, arguably reducing the
barriers somewhat, there are still considerable obstacles to terrorist development of chemical and biological weapons.21
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EXT #2 – NO EXTINCTION
Biological warfare wouldn’t cause extinction – diseases can be contained
Gregg Easterbrook, The New Republic Editor, 2003
[Wired, "We're All Gonna Die!" 11/7, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html]
3. Germ warfare! Like chemical agents, biological weapons have never lived up to their billing in popular culture. Consider the 1995
medical thriller Outbreak, in which a highly contagious virus takes out entire towns. The reality is quite different. Weaponized
smallpox escaped from a Soviet laboratory in Aralsk, Kazakhstan, in 1971; three people died, no epidemic followed. In 1979,
weapons-grade anthrax got out of a Soviet facility in Sverdlovsk (now called Ekaterinburg); 68 died, no epidemic. The loss of life was
tragic, but no greater than could have been caused by a single conventional bomb. In 1989, workers at a US government facility near
Washington were accidentally exposed to Ebola virus. They walked around the community and hung out with family and friends for
several days before the mistake was discovered. No one died. The fact is, evolution has spent millions of years conditioning mammals
to resist germs. Consider the Black Plague. It was the worst known pathogen in history, loose in a Middle Ages society of poor public
health, awful sanitation, and no antibiotics. Yet it didn't kill off humanity. Most people who were caught in the epidemic survived.
Any superbug introduced into today's Western world would encounter top-notch public health, excellent sanitation, and an array of
medicines specifically engineered to kill bioagents. Perhaps one day some aspiring Dr. Evil will invent a bug that bypasses the
immune system. Because it is possible some novel superdisease could be invented, or that existing pathogens like smallpox could be
genetically altered to make them more virulent (two-thirds of those who contract natural smallpox survive), biological agents are a
legitimate concern. They may turn increasingly troublesome as time passes and knowledge of biotechnology becomes harder to
control, allowing individuals or small groups to cook up nasty germs as readily as they can buy guns today. But no superplague has
ever come close to wiping out humanity before, and it seems unlikely to happen in the future.
Bio-Chem weapons not effective
Audrey Kurth Cronin, Specialist in Terrorism Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division. March 28, 20 03 “Terrorist
Motivations for Chemical and Biological Weapons Use: Placing the Threat in Context” CRS
Second, as mentioned above, there are far easier and potentially more “effective” (at least in terms of casualty numbers)
alternatives to chemical and biological weapons. On the rare occasions when they have been used, CBW have not resulted in large
death tolls, especially compared to conventional weapons such as truck bombs and individual explosive devices.22 It is worth
bearing in mind that the attacks of September 11th accomplished mass destruction without any unconventional weaponry. If
measured strictly in terms of their proven capacity to kill people or the frequency of terrorist use in the past, CBW weapons are not
the most worrisome.
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AT: BIOWEAPONS (IN GENERAL)
No risk of Bio-weapons: (1) unpredictable (2) permant (3) unpopular
Anwar 1999
(Afian, “Biological and Chemical Agents”, August 12, http://library.thinkquest.org/27393/tqtranslate.htm#BIOLOGICAL%20WARFARE%20%20DISADVANTAGES%20OF%20USING%20BIOLOGICAL%20WEAPONS)
The biggest disadvantage of using biological weapons is that they are really quite unpredictable. Who’s to say that you won’t
end up infecting your own troops? Another disadvantage is that these agents last for quite some time. Anthrax, for example,
can live for up to 50 years in soil. Therefore, it would be impractical to send in troops to occupy the area. No use killing
everyone in your enemy’s country and then finding out you can’t occupy it. It’s just like getting a toy without batteries. Don’t
you just hate it when you wake up on Christmas morning to find that the wonderful remote controlled car your dad bought for you
came without batteries and all the shops are closed? The last major disadvantage is that people, in general, don’t like biological
weapons. These people hate it even more when someone actually uses these weapons (particularly, when they are used on them.
Actually, come to think of it, if the biological weapons were used on them, they wouldn’t be able to complain much since they’d be
dead pretty soon). Now imagine the ruler of that country being accused by the media and in the Oprah Winfry Show of using
biological weapons for military gain. Chances are, that person won’t get too popular with the people for very long.
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AT: BIRD FLU 1/2
1. Vaccines solve 100% of your impacts – researches have found new techniques to supplement vaccinations
ABC News March 3, 2009: Aust researchers closer to bird flu vaccine. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2505881.htm
A Melbourne University research team has found boosting T-cell immunity would help rid people's bodies of the virus by finding and
destroying infected cells. In a report published today, the researchers say scientists should concentrate on modifying vaccines to boost
T-cell levels in order to effectively fight flu strains. Associate Professor Stephen Turner says a compound known to increase immunity
could be added to existing flu vaccines in Australia. He says there has been a 50 per cent death rate among people infected with the
disease overseas. "A particular concern is the fact that there's ongoing outbreaks of this pathogenic bird flu in Indonesia," he said.
"With continued human infections from this bird flu, we're just waiting to kind of see whether or not the virus will ever gain the
capacity to transmit from human to human." Since 2003, the H5N1 avian influenza virus has infected 408 people in 15 countries and
killed 254 of them. It has killed or forced the culling of more than 300 million birds as it spread to 61 countries in Asia, the Middle
East, Europe and Africa. Associate Professor Turner says there is no pre-existing immunity in the population, and existing vaccines
would be useless. "We can add this compound, this potent immune modulator, to induce killer T-cells," he said. "So it has two
advantages; it can provide this pre-emptive immunity against any pandemic, but it would also help with current influenza, the seasonal
influenza that we get every winter."
2. Even the head UN official on bird flu concedes there’s no risk of an immediate outbreak
International Herald Tribune 10/23/06
UNITED NATIONS More than 30 countries reported outbreaks of bird flu this year and the number of people dying every month is
increasing, but the world escaped an immediate influenza pandemic possibly because of the energetic global response to
warnings a year ago, the U.N. bird flu chief said Monday.Dr. David Nabarro said his warning last year that a mutation of the
virulent H5N1 virus which has ravaged poultry stocks since late 2003 could appear anytime and cause an influenza pandemic in
humans that kills millions of people was not "overblown." "There will be an influenza pandemic one day. I don't know — you don't
know — when it will be. When it does come along, it will have really major economic and social consequences," he said.
3. Biology experts agree that mutation is unlikely and even if it does it won’t kill that many people
Sarina Observer 5/24/06 p.LN
"Ridiculous," scoffed Wendy Orent, an anthropologist and author of "Plague: The Mysterious Past and Terrifying Future of the
World's Most Dangerous Disease." She said public health officials have vastly exaggerated the potential danger of bird flu.
Several factors make it unlikely that bird flu will become a dangerous pandemic, Orent said: the virus, H5N1, is still several
mutations away from being able to spread easily between people; and the virus generally attaches to the deepest part of the lungs,
making it harder to transmit by coughing or breathing. "We don't have anything that makes us think this bug will go pandemic," Orent
told the Associated Press. "Yes, it's virtually certain in human history there will be another pandemic strain ... but there's no reason for
it to happen now, or 10 years from now or 20 years from now." Our own medical officer of health, Dr. Richard Schabas, says
predictions of a bird flu pandemic are specious and may be making people sick just worrying about an outbreak among humans on a
global scale. "Our science just isn't strong enough for us to know that and it's not strong enough for us to be making these
kinds of alarmist predictions that we're hearing from the WHO and others," Schabas told CBC News in a recent interview. "This
is the third time the WHO has told us were on the brink of an avian influenza pandemic. They said it in 1997 and they were wrong.
They said it a year ago and they were wrong." With that poor track record, our medical officer of health wonders why we're so quick
to bite again.
4. Bird flu won’t mutate and even if it does it will take forever and then some
Irish Health 2005 http://www.irishhealth.com/?level=4&id=8381
While Governments and health authorities around the world, including the HSE and Department of Health here, are, as they have to,
preparing for the worst, and are currently making provisions for a possible pandemic, many would feel that the risk of a major
outbreak has been exaggerated. Experts have also pointed to the fact that there is much confusion about the difference between the
current avian H5N1 influenza, and a possible future flu pandemic, and that this confusion has added to the panic. To date, the virulent
H5N1 avian influenza strain has largely been confined to poultry in Asian countries, with hundreds of millions of birds culled; 116
human cases have been reported to date in Asia with 61 deaths, mostly in Thailand. In the majority of cases where humans in Asia
have developed bird flu the victims have been people who have handled live poultry. The H5N1 strain of the flu was recently
discovered in poultry in Turkey and Romania, but to date there have been no cases reported of humans contracting the bird flu in
Europe. There is no risk of contracting avian flu from eating cooked poultry. So the overall message at its simplest is that while
countries should be prepared should the worst happen, it might not happen and even if a pandemic-type flu does occur in the near
future, it may not be as devastating as has been predicted.
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AT: BIRD FLU 2/2
5. Genetic predispositions effect the ability of bird flu to effect humans- which means human to human spread is unlikely
Xinhua News Service 11/2/06
Genetic factors might influence human infection of bird flu, which may explain why some people get the disease and others don't, and
why it remains rare, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday. Scientists suspect some people have "a genetic
predisposition" for bird flu infection, and others don't, the UN agency said in a report, which generalized conclusions of a WHO
expert meeting in September.
The theory is based on data from rare instances of human-to-human transmission in geneticallyrelated persons.
"This possibility, if more fully explored, might help explain why human cases are relatively rare, and why the virus
is not spreading easily from animals to humans or from human to human," the WHO said.
The evidence to the theory is mainly
from a family cluster of cases last May in North Sumatra, Indonesia, when seven people in an extended family died.
Only blood
relatives were infected in the Karo district of North Sumatra, the largest cluster known to date worldwide, "despite multiple
opportunities for the virus to spread to spouses or into the general community," the WHO said.
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EXT #1 – VACCINES SOLVE
Vaccines prevent bird flu spread – and its expansion is nowhere near likely
Newsweek 05 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9630262/site/newsweek
Most researchers think our luck won't hold—that as the trillions of flu viruses at loose in the world replicate and mutate, it's only a matter of time before one evolves the
ability to spread by way of a cough or a handshake. Then our fate will be decided in a race between the virus's inherent lethality and the tendency of all germs to evolve
toward a less deadly form because their own spread depends on not killing the host—us—too quickly. Some researchers like our odds. In 1918, millions of
soldiers and civilian refugees on the move in crammed trains and ships created an ideal situation for spreading flu, and there was
nothing like today's techniques for surveillance and isolation of patients. "I actually have confidence about this," says Paul Ewald, a
biologist at the University of Louisville. "It won't race around the world like a new 1918 virus." We also have medical resources
undreamed of in 1918. Last year molecular virologist Richard Webby of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Mem-phis, Tenn., announced he had
"reverse engineered" a version of the H5N1 virus that could be the basis for a vaccine, keeping the parts that are recognized by the human immune
system while disabling a critical disease-causing function. It took just "a few weeks," says Linda Lambert, who is coordinating the government's bird-flu-vaccine
program. The resulting vaccine has been tested on 450 volunteers, and preliminary results are promising, at least for the highest doses tested; like many vaccines, it will
probably have to be given in two shots, a month apart. On the assumption it will work, but also in part just to get a production line up and running, the
government last month awarded a $100 million contract to Sanofi Pasteur of France, aiming for a stockpile of 20 million doses. The
vaccine is tricky to manufacture, because it requires injecting virus into live chicken eggs; under a separate contract, the same company is researching a cell-based
production system that could show results by the end of the decade.
US provided 10 million dollars for bird flu vaccinations in developing countries
Washington File 10/23/06 http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfileenglish&y=2006&m=October&x=20061023130051lcnirellep0.7225916
Assistance to developing countries is critical, according to the report. Such countries will need help to assess the impact of flu on their
populations and to develop and implement seasonal flu vaccination programs. This includes the purchase of seasonal flu vaccine,
which now costs $3 to $7 per dose.“If a country is to protect its own people, it must work together with other nations to protect the
people of the world,” Leavitt said. “In that spirit,” he added, “the United States has provided $10 million to the WHO to support
influenza vaccine development and manufacturing infrastructure by institutions in other countries as they develop sustainable
programs for vaccines to prevent avian H5N1 or other novel influenza viruses in humans.”
The WHO’s global stockpile of Tamiflu would eliminate the pandemic strain of Avian Flu
The Economist, October 20, 2005, (“Avian
Influenza”<http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5053648
The top priority for everyone from scientists such as Klaus Stohr, who leads the WHO's global influenza programme, to economists
such as Paul Gertler, at the World Bank, is better surveillance and prevention. Mr Shapiro, too, adds that "with sufficient resources,
which are frankly trivial for an international effort, we could spend $250m-500m on an effective system of monitoring and rapid
response to an outbreak in Asia." Computer models suggest that the WHO's global stockpile of Tamiflu (about 3m doses) could be
deployed to the site of first emergence of a pandemic strain and used to eliminate it at source. However, the outbreak has to be
detected within 21 days to have a chance of working. Close surveillance is vital to check that bird flu is not mutating into a human
form.
There is already a bird flu vaccine which is effective and can be made quickly
United Press International, 06 ( “Scientists Develop Bird Flu Vaccine”, January 26th 2006) <
http://www.physorg.com/news10302.html>
University of Pittsburgh scientists say they've genetically engineered an avian flu vaccine that has proven 100 percent effective in
mice and chickens. The vaccine was produced from the critical components of the deadly H5N1 virus that has devastated bird
populations in Southeast Asia and Europe and has killed more than 80 people. Since the newly developed vaccine contains a live
virus, researchers say it may be more immune-activating than avian flu vaccines prepared by traditional methods. Furthermore,
because it is grown in cells, it can be produced much more quickly than traditional vaccines, thereby making it an extremely attractive
candidate for preventing the spread of the virus in domestic livestock populations and, potentially, in humans. "The results of this
animal trial are very promising, not only because our vaccine completely protected animals that otherwise would have died, but also
because we found that one form of the vaccine stimulates several lines of immunity against H5N1," said Dr. Andrea Gambotto, an
assistant professor and lead author of the study. The research is detailed in the Feb 15 issue of the Journal of Virology and made
available early online.
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EXT #3 – NO MUTATION
Avian Flu will take generations to mutate and isn’t spreading rapidly
US Fed News 11-3-2005
Foreign affairs editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri analyzed in nationalist Hindustan Times (10/27): "The present outbreak of avian
influenza...will not kill even 200 people. It will devastate a lot of chicken farmers and ruin a lot of Christmas turkey dinners. Finally,
by next spring, the world will have found a new disease to get panicky about.... This strain was detected in 1997 and is known to have
killed about 75 people since then.... In comparison, tuberculosis and malaria knock off three million people each year. Bird flu panic,
on the other hand, has spread like wildfire across the globe.... The H5N1 avian virus has taken the first step.... In other words, the
world is still two and a half Darwinian degrees of separation from a pandemic. And bird flu is taking its sweet time about
evolving further.... To stop a disease that has killed less than 100 people, tens of thousands of small farmers in Asia have been ruined
by bird culls that have run past the 140 million mark.... In the meantime, governments are spending billions on actions that are often
more about symbolism than science.... When patents come under threat so do profits, private firms stop doing research about that
disease and the chances for a genuine cure recede.... Tamiflu, a non-cure for a hypothetical pandemic, is a poor case for the extreme
action of patent breaking. No one should think that bird flu is not a threat. Given the right conditions and enough time, the virus will
jump through the genetic hoops needed to make it a mass killer.... The present bird flu crisis will burn itself out in the next few
months. Its legacy, however, is shaping up to be the worst of all worlds: unenlightened public, unreformed poultry industry and less
medical research.... Don't stock up on Tamiflu. Don't socialize with South-east Asian chicken farmers. Eat Christmas turkey or butter
chicken or whatever, just cook it well."
The last 8 years proves the risk of mutation into human to human transfer is low
Irish Health 2005 http://www.irishhealth.com/?level=4&id=8381
The risk of avian flu transferring to the human population is extremely low and this can be borne out in the relatively small number of
human cases recorded to date in the vast continent of Asia. Experts predict that if avian flu did come to Ireland (and we are regarded
as a relatively low risk country for the flu arriving here) workers handling live poultry would be given bird flu vaccine and anti-viral
drugs. So if avian flu did break out in poultry and birds in Ireland, the risk of humans contracting it are relatively low, although the
risk of a human dying from it if they get it are fairly high. Experts also stress that even if the H5N1 bird flu arrived here it would not
increase the possibility of a human flu pandemic in Ireland.
Bird Flu can’t spread and mutate-Science Proves
Univeristy of Wisconsin Madison News, 06 ( Terry Devitt, “Cell Barrier Slows bird flu’s spread among humans”, March 22 nd 2006)
< http://www.news.wisc.edu/12345>
Flu viruses, like many other types of viruses, require access to the cells of their hosts to effectively reproduce. If they cannot enter a
cell, they are unable to make infectious particles that infect other cells - or other hosts. Our findings provide a rational explanation for
why H5N1 viruses rarely infect and spread from human to human, although they can replicate efficiently in the lungs," the authors of
the study write in the Nature report. By looking at human tissues, Kawaoka's group noted that the cells in the upper portions of the
respiratory system lacked the surface receptors that enable avian H5N1 virus to dock with the cell. Receptors are molecules on the
surface of cells that act like a lock. A virus with a complementary binding molecule - the key - can use the surface receptor to gain
access to the cell. Once inside, it can multiply and infect other cells. "Deep in the respiratory system, (cell) receptors for avian
viruses, including avian H5N1 viruses, are present," explains Kawaoka, who also holds an appointment at the University of Tokyo.
"But these receptors are rare in the upper portion of the respiratory system. For the viruses to be transmitted efficiently, they have to
multiply in the upper portion of the respiratory system so that they can be transmitted by coughing and sneezing." The upshot of the
new finding, says Kawaoka, a professor of pathobiological sciences at the UW-Madison School of Veterinary Medicine, is that
existing strains of bird flu must undergo key genetic changes to become the type of flu pathogen most feared by biomedical scientists.
"No one knows whether the virus will evolve into a pandemic strain, but flu viruses constantly change," Kawaoka says. "Certainly,
multiple mutations need to be accumulated for the H5N1 virus to become a pandemic strain
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EXT #4 – MUTATION SLOW
Threat of mutation is low- if it happens it will take tons of time to mutate
Chicago Tribune 11-1-2005
How imminent a threat the bird flu might be depends on factors that scientists don't fully understand. For example, how many changes
in the virus' genetic makeup would it take before it could easily infect and spread among humans? Influenza viruses are constructed of
RNA, the genetic cousin of the much more stable DNA. As an RNA virus reproduces itself from inside a human cell, its copying
mechanism makes numerous small errors in genetic translation--as though every time a newspaper article were reproduced another
word was misspelled. Those errors--or mutations--are why last year's vaccine does not protect against this year's strain. As a result, for
many in the U.S. and other highly developed countries, getting an annual "flu shot" has become a winter ritual. Although flu viruses
constantly mutate in small ways, the more mutations needed to easily infect humans, the longer such an adaptation would probably
take--and the less likely it would be to occur at all. Palese thinks the evidence suggests that relatively large numbers of mutations
would be required, indicating the threat is probably not immediate. The first human cases of the new avian flu were reported in
Hong Kong in 1997. So the virus has been circulating and mutating for at least eight years without adapting to move from person to
person, Palese noted. And other data suggest that a related virus--or possibly the same virus--has been circulating in large areas of
China for even longer, perhaps since before 1992, he said.
Even if they win it mutates, it won’t happen for 50 yearsCNN News 10/10/05
CNN) -- A physician monitoring the threat of avian influenza says a key question is whether the strain of bird flu in Asia has mutated
into a flu that could result in a human pandemic. Dr. Marc Siegel, author of "False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear,"
said it's likely that such a pandemic could occur "over the next 50 years and maybe even over the next 10 or 20," but he said "it may
very well not be this bug." The first case of avian influenza type A (H5N1) spreading from a bird to a human was recorded in Hong
Kong during a 1997 outbreak of the flu in poultry, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia.
(Watch why many companies aren't interested in making vaccine -- 1:29)
Siegel said there are still many unanswered questions regarding whether this strain of bird flu could be a pandemic trigger. "If it does
mutate or another one does, we don't know for sure what it will do," he said. "That's, you know, really speculation at this point."
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EXT #5 – NO HUMAN SPREAD
Study shows the spread of the flu is tied to genetic predispositions- even if they win it mutates it will be slow and ineffective
Australian News 11/3/06 http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20693171-401,00.html
"A genetic predisposition for infection is suspected based on data from rare instances of human-to-human transmission in geneticallyrelated persons,'' the WHO said. "This possibility, if more fully explored, might help explain why human cases are comparatively rare
and why the virus is not spreading easily from animals to humans or from human to human,'' it added. Bird flu remains mainly an
animal disease, but has infected 256 people since late 2003, killing 152 of them, according to the United Nations agency. Experts fear
the virus could mutate and spark a human influenza pandemic, which could kill millions. Overall, the H5N1 virus continues to show
"inefficient spread'', both from animals to humans and among humans, it said.
The Avian Flu will never be transmittable among humans
International Herald Tribune 11-9-05 ( Gina Kolata, “ Hazards in the hunt for flu bug” ,November 9th 2005) <
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/08/news/birds.php>
Some experts like Peter Palese of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York said the H5N1 viruses are a false alarm. He notes
that studies of serum collected in 1992 from people in rural China indicated that millions there had antibodies to the H5N1 strain. That
means they had been infected with an H5N1 bird virus and recovered, apparently without incident. Despite that, and the fact that those
viruses have been circulating in China for a dozen years, almost no human-to-human spread has occurred. "The virus has been around
for more than a dozen years, but it hasn't jumped into the human population," Palese said. "I don't think it has the capability of doing
it."
Even if the virus mutates- it is weaker than the original and will not spread among humans
Medical News Today, 06 - the largest independent health and medical news website on the Internet. - ( “ Mutated Bird Flu Virus
Might Not Spread Easily”, August 1st 2006) < http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/48478.php>
Although many scientists have been concerned that the H5N1 bird flu virus may mutate one day and become easily human
transmissible, a recent study seems to indicate that it might not spread easily among humans. Researchers from the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC), USA, tried to combine a common human flu virus with H5N1 and found it does not spread easily.
This could mean that the mutated virus may not be such a giant threat to global human health. You can read about this study in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2. Scientists infected ferrets with genetically engineered H5N1 viruses and
found that the infected animals did not spread their illness to other healthy ferrets - all the animals were very close to each other. They
also found that the 'mutated' virus was not as virulent as the original H5N1.
Mutations don’t increase likelihood of human transmission
World Health Organization, 06 (“ Avian Influenza: Significance of Mutations in the H5N1 virus”, February 20 th 2006) <
http://www.who.int/csr/2006_02_20/en/index.html>
Several recent media reports have included speculations about the significance of mutations in H5N1 avian influenza viruses. Some
reports have suggested that the likelihood of another pandemic may have increased as a result of changes in the virus. Since 1997,
when the first human infections with the H5N1 avian influenza virus were documented, the virus has undergone a number of changes.
These changes have affected patterns of virus transmission and spread among domestic and wild birds. They have not, however, had
any discernible impact on the disease in humans, including its modes of transmission. Human infections remain a rare event. The virus
does not spread easily from birds to humans or readily from person to person.
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AT: BLACKOUTS
1. No impact on the economy
Thomas 1/18/01 – Associate Director of Advisory Services at NFF, Senior Economic Correspondent for Smartmoney.com
[Rebecca, “An Energy Crisis—but Not an Economic One,” Smart Money, 1/18/01,
http://www.smartmoney.com/theeconomy/index.cfm?story=200101181]
Wall Street also downplayed the potential nationwide impact of California-specific electricity disruptions, with the Nasdaq posting a healthy
two-day bounce and the Dow Jones Industrial Average joining in on Thursday. While California accounts for about one-eighth of U.S. gross domestic
product, not all of its economic activity requires the input of electricity, Credit Suisse First Boston economists note. Moreover, they say, some
economic activity that would have occurred in California will now be moved to other states, offsetting any potential loss in national GDP.
When it comes to inflation, the national impact of higher electric rates should be similarly muted. Even if statewide electric bills increased by 50%, the overall
consumer price index (CPI) would rise by just 0.2%, notes Lehman Brothers chief economist Stephen Slifer. And if you figure that California consumers will ultimately
pay the entire $12 billion in losses incurred by the utilities — a worst-case scenario — national personal income would fall by only 0.1%, he says. Finally, although
several banks —including Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and First Union (FTU) — are vulnerable to potential loan losses from Edison
and PG&E, the likelihood of a systemic financial meltdown remains low. That's because California policy makers are unlikely to let utilities go bankrupt
and because few other utilities in the U.S. face similar problems. Moreover, banks' exposure to utilities is small relative to their overall capital base, Lehman economists
say.
2. Prevention measures taken to prevent massive blackouts & escalation
DoE 9-10/04 – U.S. Department of Energy [Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Is Our Power Grid More Reliable One
Year After the Blackout?”, State Energy Program, Sept.-Oct./04,
http://www.eere.energy.gov/state_energy_program/feature_detail_info.cfm/fid=32?print]
<The U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force publication, The August 14, 2003 Blackout One Year Later: Actions Taken in the United States
and Canada to Reduce Blackout Risk (PDF 236 KB) Download Acrobat Reader , details the actions taken to improve grid reliability. For example, shortly
after the Task Force identified direct causes of the August 14 blackout, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and NERC set to correct them. The U.S.
Canada Power System Outage Task Force conducted a massive investigation into the causes of the blackout and made 42 recommendations
to improve power system operations. In December 2003, FERC ordered FirstEnergy to study the adequacy of transmission and generation facilities in
northeastern Ohio. The results were submitted in April 2004 and recommendations are now being incorporated into FirstEnergy's operations and strategic plan. In
February 2004, NERC directed FirstEnergy, the MISO, PJM Interconnection, and the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement on actions each
organization needed by June 30, 2004, to reduce the potential of future blackouts. NERC then approved and verified their compliance plans. In response to the April
2004 Final Report, FERC took the following actions to clarify and develop reliability standards:
* Commissioned a firm to analyze transmission line
outages related to inadequate tree trimming — a major contributor to the August 14 blackout — and determine best practices for preventing this problem. See the
"Utility Vegetation Management and Bulk Electric Reliability Report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission" (PDF 92 KB). * Began to require
transmission owners to file reports on their tree trimming practices. * Affirmed the need to strengthen and clarify NERC's operating reliability standards. Meanwhile,
NERC strengthened its policies on emergency operations, operations planning, and reliability coordinator procedures and will include
compliance metrics in its operating policies and planning standards by February 2005. New standards for managing vegetation and
calculating transmission line ratings are also being developed; procedures for training and certifying operators are being revised.>
3. Impact is empirically denied – if the massive 2003 blackout didn’t trigger the impacts, nothing will
4. Blackouts encourage conservation methods.
Suzuki 8/22/03 – co-founder of the David Suzuki Foundation, host of CBC’s The Nature of Things, professor emeritus with
Sustainable Development Research Institute, [Dr. David T., “Blackout shows the need for conservation,” David Suzuki
Foundation, http://www.davidsuzuki.org/about_us/Dr_David_Suzuki/Article_Archives/weekly08220301.asp]
California has been adopting such efficiency standards and is working to reduce its electricity usage. Two years ago, California's
electrical grid was also at the breaking point, much like it is in Ontario today. But rather than spend huge amounts of money on more
polluting, fossil-fuel fired power plants, the state elected to push energy conservation. It worked. California dramatically reduced
power consumption over just a few weeks and prevented rolling blackouts and the economic disruption they would have entailed. It
also reduced greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of six million cars! This is the direction Ontario, and indeed all of Canada
must head. We need to reduce our dependence on a centralized, outdated and overstressed electrical grid. We can do this by adopting
better standards for efficiency, focusing on conservation and shifting to renewable energy supply and a decentralized power system
that is less vulnerable to large failures. Sitting out and watching the stars is something we should all do more often, but it's nice to
know we can always turn the lights on.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
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EXT #1 – NOT KEY TO ECON
Blackouts happen monthly – means its empirically denied
Apt and Lave 8/10/04 - former NASA astronaut, executive director Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center; co-director
of the center [Jay Apt and Lester B. Lave, “Blackouts Are Inevitable,” Washington Post, 8/10/04, p. A19,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52952-2004Aug9.html]
<As we approach the first anniversary of the Blackout of '03, we're reminded of the many times that officials, from New York Gov.
Nelson Rockefeller in 1977 to Gov. George Pataki now -- along with a host of senators and representatives -- have assured us that they
will take steps to prevent future blackouts. Yet roughly every four months, the United States experiences a blackout large enough to
darken a half-million homes. Now the pressure is on Congress to enact an energy bill that will protect us from the lights going out.
There's just one problem: It can't be done. In a large, complicated arrangement such as our system for generating, transmitting and
distributing electricity, blackouts simply cannot be prevented. Data for the past four decades show that blackouts occur more
frequently than theory predicts, and they suggest that it will become increasingly expensive to prevent these low-probability, highconsequence events. The various proposed "fixes" are expensive and could even be counterproductive, causing future failures because
of some unanticipated interaction.> The state of current engineering is such that we cannot verify that any particular change won't
impose problems larger than those it is designed to remedy. Nor can we eliminate all problems. Further, with a bit of "luck" and
sufficient resources, an informed, intelligent terrorist organization could get around any protective structures and software to bring
down the system.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
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EXT #2 – PREVENTABLE
Blackouts largely preventable – caused by small errors
Biever 11/20/03 – staff writer [“Celeste, ‘preventable’ failures caused U.S. power blackouts,” ,New Scientist, 11/20/03,
http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn4405-preventable-failures-caused-us-power-blackout.html]
<A disastrous string of preventable communication failures, software misuse and power line shut-downs caused the landmark
electricity blackout that struck North America in August, according to an official report released on Tuesday. Over 50 million people
in eastern and central US and Canada lost power. Engineers could have nipped the blackout in the bud if their companies had adhered
to reliability standards designed by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), concluded Spencer Abraham, US energy
secretary, and head of the US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force charged with producing the interim report. "When something
goes wrong, and critical procedures are not followed, a number of relatively small problems can combine to become a big one," said
Abraham. "It was preventable," said Herb Dhaliwal, the Canadian Minister of Natural Resources, Canada, and also on the taskforce.
The economic cost of the blackout has been estimated to run into billions of dollars.>
Blackouts inevitable. Coping – not prevention – should be the primary goal.
Apt and Lave 8/10/04 - former NASA astronaut, executive director Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center; co-director
of the center [Jay Apt and Lester B. Lave, “Blackouts Are Inevitable,” Washington Post, 8/10/04, p. A19,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52952-2004Aug9.html]
This approach is very different from the debate with which congressional conferees are dealing. They should know that, despite the
rhetoric, we will not be able to prevent all future power failures. While some investments to decrease the frequency of future outages
are worthwhile, the Energy Department, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and state regulators need to focus on lowering
the cost and disruptive effect of future blackouts. We need to be able to accomplish the essential missions of the electricity system
despite a blackout -- and to do so at the lowest possible cost.
World No Go Boom???
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EXT #3 – BLACKOUTS ARE CONSTRUCTIVE
Blackouts increase investments to harden transmission
Peter Fairley, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Spectrum 2004. [director of the Society of Environmental Journalists,.
“The Unruly Power Grid,” August, http://www.spe ctrum.ieee.org/aug04/4195]
One, an optimization model, championed by Caltech's Doyle, presumes that power engineers make conscious and rational choices to
focus resources on preventing smaller and more common disturbances on the lines; large blackouts occur because the grid isn't
forcefully engineered to prevent them. The competing explanation, hatched by a team connected with the Oak Ridge National
Laboratory in Tennessee, views blackouts as a surprisingly constructive force in an unconscious feedback loop that operates over
years or decades. Blackouts spur investments to strengthen overloaded power systems, periodically counterbalancing pressures to
maximize return on investment and deliver electricity at the lowest possible cost.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
64/420
AT: BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
Brazilian economy resilient and officially out of the recession – real estate market, industry, and low unemployment proves
Leslie Richards (investment consultant to Brazil land Invest and wrote this piece on the Brazilian economy and affordable housing
sector) 9/18/2009: Brazilian Economy Resilient And Affordable Housing Is Attracting Foreign Investment.
http://totalhorrormovies.com/brazilian-economy-resilient-and-affordable-housing-is-attracting-foreign-investment
The Brazilian domestic real estate market is attracting huge foreign investment, helped by a strong and resilient Brazilian Economy.
Second quarter real GDP increased 1.9% from the first quarter in figures released by the Brazilian Government. The data was released
by The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and showed a reduced drop in GDP from last year causing Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and BNP Paribas to revise their 2009 GDP forecasts higher following the announcement.
Brazils predicted growth has now been revised upwards to 4%, according to a weekly central bank survey of 100 economists. This
coupled with a prediction of 0.16 per cent contraction for the whole year has led the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega to
state publically Brazil’s economy has rebounded from the global financial crisis.
The Brazilian Central Bank president Henrique Meirelles said GDP growth in this second quarter is excellent news and shows that
Brazil has already come out of recession. Finance Minister Mantega said This growth is based upon positive trends in industry,
services and employment rates.
A major factor in the quick turnaround experienced by the Brazilian economy is a series of measures introduced by the Government to
incentivise the domestic real estate market and construction industry. Minha casa, Minha Vida has been a huge success and has
contributed to the 2.1 per cent increase in domestic spending over last months figures.
This programme has poured R$60bn into Brazils housing market and given that the construction industry accounts for 5 per cent of
Brazils gross domestic product this scheme is giving a valuable boost to employment and earnings.
The Brazilian Government announced that it would plow another R$10 Billion into its flagship affordable housing scheme, Minha
Casa, Minha Vida in 2010. The key to this scheme is the Government providing subsidies of up to 90%, which keeps the buyers
mortgage payments below 10% of their income. Mortgage payments are guaranteed by a Treasury fund.
Following the French and German economies, Brazil is the latest Group of Twenty economy to emerge from recession. Germany, the
Euro regions largest economy, and France, the second largest, both expanded 0.3 percent in the period.
Brazilian economic shocks inevitable – oil dependency and vulnerability to oil shocks
Sandra Polaski et al (deputy undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of International Labor
Affairs ) 2009: Brazil in the Global Economy. pg. 62
In the model base year of 2004, Brazil was a net importer of both crude oil and refined petroleum products, representing the fourth and
fifth most important import commodities together accounting for 20 percent of total imports. Moreover, imports account for 37
percent of consumption of crude oil and 12 percent of consumption of refined petroleum. In combination, these data indicate that the
Brazilian economy is likely to continue to experience, at least in the short term, substantial disruption following sustained increases in
the price of imported oil. However, Brazil’s exports of oil-based commodities – currently crude oil only accounts for 2.3 percent and
refined petroleum for 4.9 percent of total exports are likely to grow over time, which suggests the adverse implications of oil price
increases will wane with future exploitation of petroleum reserves.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
65/420
AT: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Actual business condition overshadow biz con – it’s resilient
Johannesburg 9 (Mail & Guadian Online, "Business confidence remains resilient," Jun 9, http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-06-09business-confidence-remains-resilient, AD: 6/29/09) jl
As was the case during the first quarter, the decline in business confidence levels is surprisingly small in view of the poor actual
business conditions. This points to perceptions that the economy is approaching the lower turning point of the present cycle.
Confidence declined in the building and construction sector (-10), the manufacturing sector (-5) and the retail sector (-5), though it
recovered somewhat in the both the wholesale (+5) and motor trade (+7) sectors. Since the end of last year, the local business
environment has been overshadowed by the effect of the global financial and economic crisis. The impact of the global crisis
arrived on top of an already moderating local business cycle since the end of 2007. Mining and manufacturing real GDP
contracted at real annualised rates of 30% and 20% respectively during the first quarter of 2009, while the tertiary sector,
excluding government, slowed to year-on-year growth of only 0,6% from 5% to 6% at the end of 2007. Following on a real GDP
growth momentum of 4% to 5% at the beginning of last year, actual GDP began contracting during the final quarter of 2008 (1,8% annualised) and this decline intensified during the first quarter of this year (6,4% annualised). "The SARB has responded
quite aggressively, cutting its repo rate at five meetings since December 2008 by a cumulative 450 basis points; in February the
minister of finance also announced an expansionary budget for the 2009/10 fiscal year. The global economic situation also
stabilised from March this year, and equity and commodity markets have recovered, though much uncertainty remains," the
survey's sponsors said.
Massachusetts proves that bizcon is resilient and rising now.
Reidy 9 (Chris, ADP Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, The Boston Globe, "Business confidence index edges up," May 6,
Lexis, AD: 6/29/09) jl
Associated Industries of Massachusetts said its monthly Business Confidence Index added 1.9 points from March to reach 35.4 in
April. February's 33.3 reading, (on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral) was a historic low. Established in 1915, AIM describes
itself as a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that represents Massachusetts employers. A statement from Raymond G. Torto, chief
economist at the real estate company CB Richard Ellis Group and chairman of AIM's board of economic advisers, said: ``Though
two small gains barely constitute a trend, we have been seeing signs in the AIM survey since February that the economic decline now the longest of the post-World War II era - could bottom out soon.''
US biz con is resilient – Trends indicate optimism is prevailing in the market.
Piovano 9 (Carlo, AP Business Writer, " World Stocks Recover on Resilient US Earnings," May
18, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=7611441, AD: 6/30/090 jl
World stock markets recovered early losses Monday after Lowe's, the second biggest U.S. home improvement chain, said first-quarter
profit fell less than feared. The report boosted hopes among investors that the worst of the U.S. recession is over and offset weak
earnings news out of Asia, which had weighed on markets early in the day. Standing out Monday was India's stock market, which
vaulted more than 17 percent higher on the results of elections over the weekend. In afternoon European trading, Germany's DAX was
up 1.1 percent at 4,789.35 and Britain's FTSE 100 was 1.2 percent higher at 4,400.69. France's CAC 40 rose 0.7 percent to 3,191.14.
All of them had dropped as much as 1.0 percent after the open. U.S. futures pointed to gains on Wall Street. Dow Jones industrial
average futures rose 38, or 0.5 percent, to 8,305. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 5.50, or 0.6 percent, to 888.50. On Friday,
the two indexes had fallen 0.8 percent and 1.1 percent. News that net profit at Lowe's Cos. fell to 32 cents per share in the quarter
ended May 1, topping analysts' forecast of 25 cents a share, helped sentiment after two of Japan's leading companies — Panasonic and
Mizuho Financial — reported colossal losses for the last fiscal year. Price movements were limited as investors juggled backwardlooking economic indicators — such as weak GDP data and earnings reports — with more forward-looking measures of business and
consumer confidence, which have been on the rise. "The rally in equity markets during March and April may hint that the optimists
have won, but the fact that this has now petered out instead suggests that we have merely removed the extreme pessimism from the
market," said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global forex strategy at Calyon.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
66/420
AT: CALIFORNIA ECONOMY
California’s economy is screwed anyways – no chance of recovery until at least 2011
Alana Semuels, Los Angeles Times, Staff Writer, 7 22, 2009 “No recovery in California until 2011, forecast says”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cal-econ22-2009jul22,0,2160299.story
Unemployment in California and Los Angeles County will increase well into 2010, continuing to exceed the highest levels since at
least the end of World War II, according to a local economist whose projections for the Southland economy are among the most
negative to date. Continued sluggishness in key industries such as construction, retail, international trade and hospitality will keep the
state from a full recovery until 2011, said the report, released by the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles County
Economic Development Corp.
Personal income will drop 2% in the state this year, the report said, the first annual decline since 1938.
"Most people haven't experienced anything like this in their lifetimes," said Jack Kyser, founding economist of the Kyser Center.
California's jobless rate, which was 11.6% in June, will average 12.6% next year, according to Kyser, who also projected that Los
Angeles County's unemployment rate will be even higher, averaging 12.8% in 2010. The county's jobless rate was 11.3% last month.
And they’re already doing everything they can to solve it
Associated Press, is an American news agency. The AP is a cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and
television stations, 7-24-09, http://www.cnbc.com/id/32122992
When people have to struggle and suffer because of those kind of cuts, you can't declare victory," he said. "I think what we have
done is steered away from the iceberg and we are coming out of it and we're going to rebuild California as quickly as possible
and get our economy back." The attempt to take or borrow nearly $5 billion from cities and counties over two years became
one of the most difficult issues. Several big-city mayors criticized the raids Thursday and said at least 130 local governments
have agreed to sue the state to block the transfer of some money. Under the budget package, the state would borrow $2 billion
from local governments' property tax revenue and repay it with interest within three years. It would take another $1 billion in
redevelopment money and nearly $2 billion over two years in local transportation funds — a measure Assembly leaders were
considering rejecting Friday.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
67/420
AT: CARIBBEAN ECONOMIES
Caribbean economies resilient – IMF report and this recession proves
Mary Swire 2008: Latin America and the Caribbean Region Resilient So Far, But Risks Ahead. http://www.taxnews.com/archive/story/Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean_Region_Resilient_So_Far_But_Risks_Ahead_xxxx30648.html
Economies in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region have generally held up well so far in the face of recent global financial
strains, according to the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, released late last week.
Many countries in the region are benefiting from stronger fiscal and external positions and improved credibility of policy frameworks,
according to Anoop Singh, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department.
The IMF observed that stresses in US financial markets have had less impact on the region's financial markets and external funding
than in past episodes of global financial disruptions.
Although external funding conditions have tightened, especially for the LAC corporate sector, this has been by less than in the past,
and also less than in some other emerging markets. However, Mr Singh noted that a deteriorating global environment will weaken
fiscal and external positions, especially because public spending continues to be procyclical in many countries.
Mr Singh added that the prospects for a number of countries have been strongly supported by still-strong commodity prices.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
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AT: CCP COLLAPSE
No risk of CCP collapse – they have censored internet and the most effective secret police in the world to silence all dissenters
Minxin Pei (senior associate and director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) 3/12/2009: Will
the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinesecommunist-party-survive-the-crisis
Economic crisis and social unrest may make it tougher for the CCP to govern, but they will not loosen the party's hold on power. A
glance at countries such as Zimbabwe, North Korea, Cuba, and Burma shows that a relatively unified elite in control of the military
and police can cling to power through brutal force, even in the face of abysmal economic failure. Disunity within the ruling elite, on
the other hand, weakens the regime's repressive capacity and usually spells the rulers' doom.
The CCP has already demonstrated its remarkable ability to contain and suppress chronic social protest and small-scale dissident
movements. The regime maintains the People's Armed Police, a well-trained and well-equipped anti-riot force of 250,000. In addition,
China's secret police are among the most capable in the world and are augmented by a vast network of informers. And although the
Internet may have made control of information more difficult, Chinese censors can still react quickly and thoroughly to end the
dissemination of dangerous news.
Since the Tiananmen crackdown, the Chinese government has greatly refined its repressive capabilities. Responding to tens of
thousands of riots each year has made Chinese law enforcement the most experienced in the world at crowd control and dispersion.
Chinese state security services have applied the tactic of "political decapitation" to great effect, quickly arresting protest leaders and
leaving their followers disorganized, demoralized, and impotent. If worsening economic conditions lead to a potentially explosive
political situation, the party will stick to these tried-and-true practices to ward off any organized movement against the regime.
Alt cause to collapse – elite disunity is the ONLY scenario of CCP collapse and its inevitable because of the economic crisis
Minxin Pei (senior associate and director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) 3/12/2009: Will
the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinesecommunist-party-survive-the-crisis
If popular unrest is not a true threat to the party's continued rule, then what is? The answer could likely be disunity among the
country's elite. Those who talk of China's "authoritarian resilience" consider elite unity to be one of the CCP's most significant
achievements in recent decades, citing as evidence technocratic dominance, a lack of ideological disputes, the creation of standardized
procedures for the promotion and retirement of high officials, and the relatively smooth leadership succession from Jiang Zemin to Hu
Jintao.
But there are reasons to remain skeptical of such apparent harmony -- arrangements of power that are struck in times of economic
prosperity often come undone when crisis hits.
The current Chinese leadership is a delicately balanced coalition of regional, factional, and institutional interests, which makes it
vulnerable to dissension. To most Western eyes, China is blessed with strong, capable, and decisive leaders. But to the Chinese leaders
themselves, the situation looks somewhat different. Their resumés are remarkably similar, as are their records as administrators. No
single individual towers above the others in terms of demonstrated leadership, vision, or performance -- which means that no one is
beyond challenge, and the stage is set for jockeying for preeminence.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
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AT: CENTRAL ASIAN WAR
1. No risk of major central asian war now
Weitz in 6 Richard Weitz is a senior fellow and associate director of the Center for Future Security Strategies at the Hudson Institute
in Washington, D.C. Averting a New Great Game in Central Asia The Washington Quarterly 2006 Summer.
Central Asian security affairs have become much more complex than during the original nineteenth-century great game between
czarist Russia and the United Kingdom. At that time, these two governments could largely dominate local affairs, but today a variety
of influential actors are involved in the region. The early 1990s witnessed a vigorous competition between Turkey and Iran for
influence in Central Asia. More recently, India and Pakistan have pursued a mixture of cooperative and competitive policies in the
region that have influenced and been affected by their broader relationship. The now independent Central Asian countries also
invariably affect the region's international relations as they seek to maneuver among the major powers without compromising their
newfound autonomy. Although Russia, China, and the United States substantially affect regional security issues, they cannot dictate
outcomes the way imperial governments frequently did a century ago. Concerns about a renewed great game are thus exaggerated.
The contest for influence in the region does not directly challenge the vital national interests of China, Russia, or the United States, the
most important extraregional countries in Central Asian security affairs. Unless restrained, however, competitive pressures risk
impeding opportunities for beneficial cooperation among these countries. The three external great powers have incentives to compete
for local allies, energy resources, and military advantage, but they also share substantial interests, especially in reducing terrorism and
drug trafficking. If properly aligned, the major multilateral security organizations active in Central Asia could provide opportunities
for cooperative diplomacy in a region where bilateral ties traditionally have predominated.
2. Central asia war won’t escalate
Collins and Wohlforth ’04 (Kathleen, Prof PoliSci – Notre Dame and William, Prof Government – Dartmouth, “Defying ‘Great
Game’ Expectations”, Strategic Asia 2003-4: Fragility and Crisis, p. 312-3)
Conclusion The popular great game lens for analyzing Central Asia fails to capture the declared interests of the great powers as well as
the best reading of their objective interests in security and economic growth. Perhaps more importantly, it fails to explain their actual
behavior on the ground, as well the specific reactions of the Central Asian states themselves. Naturally, there are competitive elements in
great power relations. Each country’s policymaking community has slightly different preferences for tackling the challenges presented in the region, and the more
influence they have the more able they are to shape events in concordance with those preferences. But these clashing preferences concern the means to serve ends
that all the great powers share. To be sure, policy-makers in each capital would prefer that their own national firms or their own government’s budget be the
beneficiaries of any economic rents that emerge from the exploitation and transshipment of the region’s natural resources. But the scale of these rents is marginal
even for Russia’s oil-fueled budget. And for taxable profits to be created, the projects must make sense economically—something that is determined more by
markets and firms than governments. Does it matter? The great game is an arresting metaphor that serves to draw people’s attention to an oft-neglected region. The
problem is the great-game lens can distort realities on the ground, and therefore bias analysis and policy. For when great powers are locked in a
competitive fight, the issues at hand matter less than their implication for the relative power of contending states. Power itself becomes the issue—one that tends to
be nonnegotiable. Viewing an essential positive-sum relationship through zero sum conceptual lenses will result in missed
opportunities for cooperation that leaves all players—not least the people who live in the region—poorer and more insecure. While cautious realism must
remain the watchword concerning an impoverished and potentially unstable region comprised of fragile and authoritarian states, our analysis yields at least
conditional and relative optimism. Given the confluence of their chief strategic interests, the major powers are in a better position to
serve as a stabilizing force than analogies to the Great Game or the Cold War would suggest. It is important to stress that the region’s
response to the profoundly destabilizing shock of coordinated terror attacks was increased cooperation between local governments and China
and Russia, and—multipolar rhetoric notwithstanding—between both of them and the United States. If this trend is nurtured and if the initial signals about potential
SCO-CSTO-NATO cooperation are pursued, another destabilizing shock might generate more rather than less cooperation among the major
powers. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan are clearly on a trajectory that portends longer-term cooperation with
each of the great powers. As military and economic security interests become more entwined, there are sound reasons to conclude that “great
game” politics will not shape Central Asia’s future in the same competitive and destabilizing way as they have controlled its past. To the contrary,
mutual interests in Central Asia may reinforce the broader positive developments in the great powers’ relations that have taken place since
September 11, as well as reinforce regional and domestic stability in Central Asia.
3. Alt cause – water conflicts
Golovnina, Reuters staff writer, 6/12/2008
[Maria, "Water squabbles irrigate tensions in Central Asia," http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL064196320080612]
Central Asia is one of the world's driest places where, thanks to 70 years of Soviet planning, thirsty crops such as cotton and grain remain the main
livelihood for most of the 58 million people. Disputes over cross-border water use have simmered for years in this sprawling mass of land wedged between Iran, Russia
and China. Afghanistan, linked to Central Asia by the Amu Daria river, is adding to the tension by claiming its own share of the water. Water shortages are causing
concern the world over, because of rising demand, climate change and swelling populations. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said water scarcity is a
"potent fuel for wars and conflict". Analysts say this year's severe weather fluctuations in Central Asia -- from a record cold winter to
devastating spring floods and now drought -- are causing extra friction. "Water is very political. It's very sensitive. It can be a pretext
for disputes or conflicts," said Christophe Bosch, a Central Asia water expert at the World Bank. "It is one of the major irritants between countries in
Central Asia."
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EXT #1 – NO WAR
No Central Asian war – the SCO checks conflict
Maksutov in ‘6 (Ruslan, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Central Asian Perspective”,
August, http://www.sipri.org/contents/worldsec/Ruslan.SCO.pdf/download)
As a starting point, it is fair to say that all Central Asian countries—as well as China and Russia—are interested in security
cooperation within a multilateral framework, such as the SCO provides. For Central Asia this issue ranks in importance with that of
economic development, given the explosive environment created locally by a mixture of external and internal threats. Central Asia is
encircled by four of the world’s eight known nuclear weapon states (China, India, Russia and Pakistan), of which Pakistan has a poor
nuclear non-proliferation profile and Afghanistan is a haven for terrorism and extremism. Socio-economic degradation in Central
Asian states adds to the reasons for concern and makes obvious the interdependence between progress in security and in development.
Some scholars argue that currently concealed tendencies evolving in various states of Central Asia—such as the wide-ranging social
discontent with oppressive regimes in the region, and the growing risks of state collapse and economic decline—all conducive to the
quick growth of radical religious movements, could have far-reaching implications for regional stability once they come more into the
light. 41 At first sight, the instruments established by the SCO to fulfil its declared security- building objectives seem to match the
needs that Central Asian states have defined against this background. While the existence of the SCO further reduces the already
remote threat of conventional interstate war in the region, 42 it allows for a major and direct focus on the non-state, non-traditional
and transnational threats that now loom so large by comparison.
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EXT #2 – NO ESCALATION
Won’t draw in Russia, China, or the U.S.
Weitz ’06 (Richard, Senior Fellow – Hudson Institute, Washington Quarterly, Summer, Lexis)
Concerns about a renewed great game are thus exaggerated. The contest for influence in the region does not directly challenge the
vital national interests of China, Russia, or the United States, the most important extraregional countries in Central Asian security
affairs. Unless restrained, however, competitive pressures risk impeding opportunities for beneficial cooperation among these
countries. The three external great powers have incentives to compete for local allies, energy resources, and military advantage, but
they also share substantial interests, especially in reducing terrorism and drug trafficking. If properly aligned, the major multilateral
security organizations active in Central Asia could provide opportunities for cooperative diplomacy in a region where bilateral ties
traditionally have predominated.
Central Asian conflict won’t escalate
Olga Oliker, Senior International Policy Analyst at RAND and David Shlapak, acting director for strategy and doctrine for RAND,
2005, “U.S. Interests in Central Asia,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG338.pdf, p. 41-42
Broadly speaking, there are two primary military reasons the United States would seek to maintain a long-term military presence
on for- eign shores. The first has already been mentioned: the existence of an imminent threat to key U.S. interests. For half a
century, for exam- ple, the United States has kept Army and Air Force units stationed in South Korea to deter a second North
Korean attack and to help de- feat it, should deterrence fail. Putting aside the question of whether or not U.S. interests in Central
Asia are sufficient to justify an American defensive shield, even if an external threat to the area existed, the facts appear to support
the conclusion that no such danger exists. Although Russia is certainly angling to restore its influence in these ex- Soviet
territories, there is no hint of a serious military threat. The new Russian base in Tajikistan, which evolved from many years of
pres- ence by its 201st Motor Rifle Division, will keep some 5,000 troops in the country, including an air component. Russian
border guards have now left the mission in Tajik hands, leaving only an advisory presence. Moreover, Russian forces in Tajikistan
are seen by many as bolstering the Dushanbe regime. Similarly, the air base outside the Kyrgyz town of Kant does not appear to
threaten Kyrgyz sover- eignty.4 China, the neighborhood’s other heavy hitter, is also anxious to enhance its relationships with the
Central Asian republics; it is the lead nation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and has participated in multiple
military exercises with various Central Asian countries. Beijing’s military attention is focused elsewhere and its designs on the
region are economic and political—they do not threaten the Central Asian states militarily.5 While aggression among Central
Asian actors is sometimes touted as a possibility, none of the region’s militaries appear capable of mounting serious offensive
operations and there are few if any issues at stake between Central Asian nations that would warrant large-scale military action
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AT: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS
1. Civil military relations will always be strained – opposing values
Cohen 2000 Former Secretary of Defense.
Eliot A. Cohen. Why the Gap Matters - gap between military and civilian world. The National Interest.
http://www.dtic.mil/miled/pamphlet/AFO18.pdf.
To do so, they must begin by purging themselves of the notion that if there is no threat of a coup, there is no problem. The truth is that
the civil-military relationship in a democracy is almost invariably difficult, setting up as it does opposing values, powerful institutions
with great resources, and inevitable tensions between military professionals and statesmen. Those difficulties have become more acute
in the United States as a result of two great changes: the end of a centuries-old form of military organization, and a transformation in
America's geopolitical circumstances.
2. Military doctrines inevitably tank relations
Cohen 2000. Former Secretary of Defense.
Eliot A. Cohen. Why the Gap Matters - gap between military and civilian world. The National Interest.
http://www.dtic.mil/miled/pamphlet/AFO18.pdf.
The major doctrinal statements about the use of force in the last twenty years--Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger's six rules for
intervention, and General Powell's doctrine of overwhelming force--reflect views dominant in the officer corps, views in turn molded
by the military's understanding of the Vietnam War. They were echoed by politicians who believed, or found it convenient to declare
that they believed, that the job of politicians was merely to set objectives, not scrutinize military plans, monitor the conduct of
operations, and adjust strategy to circumstances. This trend reflects a combination of developments, including a common (mis)reading
of the Vietnam War, an unwillingness on the part of civilian leaders to accept the responsibilities levied upon them by their offices,
and a confidence in the technical expertise of soldiers. Recent doctrine, however, has flaws of the most terrible kind, for it presumes a
kind of universal, apolitical and objective military expertise, when military judgmen t is, in fact, highly contextual and contingent,
intimately connected with the politics of a situation and subject to a variety of prejudices and personal experiences. Still, the truth is
that for the most part civilian political leaders have given up on the kind of hard questioning and probing that characterized the
leadership style of those presidents who believed in civilian control and exercised it best--Lincoln, Roosevelt and Eisenhower among
them. Each of these leaders, in different and large ways, violated massively the simplistic doctrine of civilian control that is current in
the military and Congress: namely, politicians should set objectives and then get out of the way.
3. Impact is exaggerated
Cohen 2000. Former Secretary of Defense.
Eliot A. Cohen. Why the Gap Matters - gap between military and civilian world. The National Interest.
http://www.dtic.mil/miled/pamphlet/AFO18.pdf.
THE PARADOX of increased social and institutional vulnerability on the one hand and increased military influence on narrow sectors
of policymaking on the other is the essence of the contemporary civil-military problem. Its roots lie not in the machinations of power
hungry generals; they have had influence thrust upon them. Nor do they lie in the fecklessness of civilian leaders determined to
remake the military in the image of civil society; all militaries must, in greater or lesser degree, share some of the mores and attitudes
of the broader civilization from which they have emerged. The problem reflects, rather, deeper and more enduring changes in politics,
society and technology. The challenge to American policymakers and soldiers lies in admitting that there is a problem without
exaggerating its size and scope. There is no danger of a coup, but there is dry rot. There is no threat even of a MacArthur-sized crisis
between political and military high commands, but there is a level of mistrust, antipathy and condescension that is worrisome. There is
no fear of collapse of civilian control, but there is erosion in some areas, distortion in others, and, more than anything else, confusion
about the meaning of military professionalism under the new conditions--plus sheer ignorance and forgetfulness about what civilian
control entails. What are the solutions?
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AT: CHAVEZ
We should ignore Chavez rather than try to isolate him -- he uses US opposition to increase support and influence
Jennifer McCoy Professor, Political Science Georgia State University CQ Congressional Testimony July 17, 2008
The Bush Administration has learned to ignore rather than respond to much of Chavez' inflammatory rhetoric. This change in attitude
will help to mitigate the U.S. role as a "foil" to Venezuela's anti-imperialist stance and should be continued.
The U.S. refusal to extradite to Venezuelan citizen Luis Posadas Carriles on charges of terrorism (accused of masterminding the 1976
bombing of a Cuban plane) presents a U.S. double-standard on issues of terrorism.
Lessons for the future - what can and should the U.S. do?
A new U.S. administration offers the opportunity to begin anew with Venezuela in a more amicable and cooperative relationship.
However, Washington should not expect major change given the fundamental foreign policy goals of the Chavez administration and
the Bolivarian Revolution: to increase Venezuela's national autonomy, to increase the global South's autonomy vis-a-vis the North,
and to lessen U.S. dominance in the region and the world. Venezuela will continue its attempts to diversify its oil export markets and
to build coalitions to create a more multipolar world and a more integrated South.
A new U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela should start with positive signals and focus on pragmatic concerns of interest to both
countries - commercial relations, counter-narcotics, and security on the Venezuelan-Colombia border. The U.S. should make clear that
it respects the sovereign right of the Venezuelan people to choose their leadership (as they have done consistently in voting for Hugo
Chavez) and that the U.S. has no intent to engineer regime change in Venezuela. A more consistent policy across the executive branch
would help to reinforce this message, as in the past the Pentagon has continued negative descriptions of the Chavez administration
even while the State Department tried to moderate its rhetoric.
Chavez's own policies are bringing him down
The New York Times June 15, 2008
It turns out that Hugo Chavez is an adaptable man. The Venezuelan president, who has championed -- and almost certainly helped
arm -- Colombia's FARC rebels, called last week for the rebels to lay down their weapons and unconditionally surrender their
hostages.
We suspect this change of heart has been driven more by self-interest than conviction. Mr. Chavez is increasingly unpopular at
home and increasingly isolated abroad, especially as evidence has mounted of his meddling in Colombia. The change
nevertheless is welcome and well timed.
The FARC, which long ago chose drug trafficking over liberation, has been under assault from Colombia's Army and looks as if it is
unraveling. The United States, Colombia and all of Venezuela's neighbors should press Mr. Chavez to use all of his influence to get
the rebels to demobilize.
There is good news inside Venezuela too. On the same weekend that Mr. Chavez turned on the FARC, he suspended a chilling new
law he had enacted by decree that would have forced Venezuelans to cooperate with the intelligence services or go to jail. He has also
withdrawn a school curriculum that blasted capitalism as a force to subjugate the people.
With Venezuela's economy slowing and its inflation rate the highest in Latin America, Mr. Chavez's approval rating has
plunged since December, when he narrowly lost a referendum that would have given him even more power and allowed him to run
for re-election indefinitely. With gubernatorial elections coming in November, he apparently decided he needed a political makeover.
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AT: CHEMICAL INDUSTRY COLLAPSE
Chemical industry has been through worse and empirically bounces back
Chemical and Engineering News, 2001 (12/24, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/topstory/7952/7952bus1.html)
To call 2001 merely a difficult year for the chemical industry downplays the severity of events that eventually influenced general
economic, business, political, and social circumstances. The repercussions of terrorist attacks late in the year only made a tough
situation worse. The industry was already in a downturn at its start. This spawned an increasing number of job reductions, production
cutbacks, business divestitures, and company mergers in the days that followed. For the first time in several years, a handful of
companies declared outright bankruptcy, failing to find a way to survive the hard times. High energy and raw material prices were
significant factors early on, only to come full circle and end the year at dramatically lower levels. Weakening international economies,
slackening demand, overcapacity, the strong dollar, and a squeeze on prices and margins contributed to some of the poorest financial
results in years. Chemical sales and earnings continued to decline. Mergers and acquisitions created some entirely new companies and
others with new focuses. In the end, the Top 50 global chemical producers got shuffled and mixed, with a few new behemoths
emerging. The decisions of government regulators had considerable consequences in these transactions, as well as in environmental
and trade policies. The chemical industry has faced added challenges since the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11. Concerns about energy
prices shifted to ones about production and supply security. Pharmaceutical producers were drawn into discussions about ensuring the
supply of antibiotics and vaccines. And site security--long a key consideration for employee, community, and environmental safety-has been heightened as chemical plants and refineries are feared to be potential targets. On a positive note, advances in sequencing the
human genome brought excitement to pharmaceutical discovery. Chemical companies advanced new production technologies and planned to slightly increase
their investment in R&D. They also moved ahead with expansion plans around the world, while shutting down older, less efficient plants. The Internet continued to
bring changes in how the industry conducts business, with many companies asserting themselves in the online world.
Top CHEMICAL ECONOMY. Even in a lackluster year, the state of the economy is news, but given the precipitous declines of 2001, this year it is big
news. Declining growth rates and contraction of gross domestic product in the U.S., exacerbated by many other negative factors, put
enormous pressure on the U.S. chemical industry. Similar circumstances played out around the world, especially in Europe and Asia.
The strong dollar made U.S. chemicals less attractive to foreign customers. For the first nine months of 2001, the latest data available, U.S.
producers exported $60.8 billion in chemicals, a slight increase of 2.7% over the same period last year. At the same time, the U.S. became the place for foreign
producers to sell to, with chemical imports into the U.S. up 9.0% to $59.4 billion. This caused the chemical trade surplus, long a point of pride in the industry, to fall
70% to just $1.4 billion.
The trade situation also affected chemical shipments. Imports supplied some U.S. demand, but the U.S. recession had an even greater impact--shipments of chemicals
through October contracted by about 3% to a total of $359.6 billion for the year to date, according to Commerce Department data. Of even greater concern has been the
increase in inventories relative to shipments as the economy slowed throughout this year. Although chemical inventories have actually declined somewhat, the sell-off
has not kept pace with the drop in shipments and has produced a high inventories-to-shipments ratio of about 1.50, which represents 1.5 months of demand. In
December of last year, the ratio was 1.39. This inventory overhang has impacted both production and prices throughout the year, especially among commodity
chemicals. After reaching an all-time high in February as producers tried to offset the high energy and feedstock costs, the government's producer price index for
industrial chemicals has fallen 8.4%. Production of industrial chemicals and synthetics, based on government data, declined about 9% from last
year. The downward spiral of the chemical economy this year has of course put tremendous pressure on sales, earnings, and
profitability. For the first nine months of 2001, aggregate results for the 25 chemical companies regularly tracked by C&EN show year-to-year declines of 6% in
sales and 44% for earnings. The aggregate profit margin for the group fell to 4.6% from 7.9% in the first nine months of last year.
Economic conditions forced Borden Chemicals & Plastics to file for bankruptcy in April and Sterling Chemicals to file in July. Penn Specialty Chemicals also filed in
July, and its assets were sold off in December. During the year, W.R. Grace also filed for bankruptcy, but to protect itself from asbestos liability litigation. However,
Pioneer Cos., which filed in August, has reorganized and expects to emerge from bankruptcy by the end of December. After selling and closing some
its businesses, LaRoche Industries emerged from bankruptcy in October. With earnings and profitability declines, one might think
that Wall Street would be less than keen on chemical company stocks. However, stocks of chemical companies, as well as those in
many other "old economy" industries, have actually benefited this year from the highly publicized technology meltdown as investors
looked for safer havens for their money. Despite the ups and downs of the stock market throughout the year, by mid-December
C&EN's stock index--based on the same 25 companies used for earnings--was down just 3% from where it closed in 2000. At the
same time, the Dow Jones industrial average was off 8%.
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AT: CHEMICAL TERROR
1. Aum Shinrikyo proves even if terrorists had the resources – the impact would be low
Smithson, 2005. (Amy E., PhD, is a the project director for biological weapons at the Henry L. Stimson Center. “Likelihood of
Terrorists Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons”. http://www.stimson.org/cbw/?SN=CB2001121259]
The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo was brimming with highly educated scientists, yet the cult's biological weapons program turned out
to be a lemon. While its poison gas program certainly made more headway, it was rife with life-threatening production and
dissemination accidents. After all of Aum's extensive financial and intellectual investment, the Tokyo subway attack killed a dozen
people, seriously injured just over fifty more, and mildly injured just under 1,000. In 96 percent of the cases worldwide where
chemical or biological substances have been used since 1975, three or fewer people were injured or killed.
2. [insert cards from AT: Chemical Weapons (next page)]
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AT: CHEMICAL WEAPONS
1. Chemical weapons are dangerous to manufacture and producing large quantities is too difficult
Smithson, 2005. (Amy E., PhD, is a the project director for biological weapons at the Henry L. Stimson Center . “Likelihood of Terrorists
Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons”. http://www.stimson.org/cbw/?SN=CB2001121259]
Chemical weapons formulas have been published and publicly available for decades. Mustard agents came of age during World War I, and nerve
agents were discovered in the mid-1930s. The production processes used over seventy years ago are still viable. The ingredients and equipment
a group would need to produce these agents are readily available because they are also the same items that are used to make various commercial items that we
use everyday---from ballpoint pens to plastics to ceramics to fireworks. Scientists with a solid chemical background could likely make certain agents in small quantities.
However, two factors stand in the way of manufacturing chemical agents for the purpose of mass casualty. First, the chemical reactions
involved with the production of agents are dangerous: precursor chemicals can be volatile and corrosive, and minor misjudgments or
mistakes in processing could easily result in the deaths of would-be weaponeers. Second, this danger grows when the amount of agent
that would be needed to successfully mount a mass casualty attack is considered. Attempting to make sufficient quantities would
require either a large, well-financed operation that would increase the likelihood of discovery or, alternatively, a long, drawn-out process
of making small amounts incrementally. These small quantities would then need to be stored safely in a manner that would not weaken the agent's toxicity before
being released. It would take 18 years for a basement-sized operation to produce the more than two tons of sarin gas that the Pentagon
estimates would be necessary to kill 10,000 people, assuming the sarin was manufactured correctly at its top lethality.
2. No impact to chemical weapons – they are minimally destructive
O’Neill 8/19/2004 [Brandan, “Weapons of Minimum Destruction” http://www.spiked-online.com/Articles/0000000CA694.htm]
David C Rapoport, professor of political science at University of California, Los Angeles and editor of the Journal of Terrorism and Political Violence, has examined what he calls 'easily
available evidence' relating to the historic use of chemical and biological weapons. He found something surprising - such weapons do
not cause mass destruction. Indeed, whether used by states, terror groups or dispersed in industrial accidents, they tend to be far less destructive than
conventional weapons. 'If we stopped speculating about things that might happen in the future and looked instead at what has
happened in the past, we'd see that our fears about WMD are misplaced', he says. Yet such fears remain widespread. Post-9/11, American and British leaders
have issued dire warnings about terrorists getting hold of WMD and causing mass murder and mayhem. President George W Bush has spoken of terrorists who, 'if they ever gained weapons of
mass destruction', would 'kill hundreds of thousands, without hesitation and without mercy' (1). The British government has spent £28million on stockpiling millions of smallpox vaccines,
even though there's no evidence that terrorists have got access to smallpox, which was eradicated as a natural disease in the 1970s and now exists only in two high-security labs in America and
Russia (2). In 2002, British nurses became the first in the world to get training in how to deal with the victims of bioterrorism (3). The UK Home Office's 22-page pamphlet on how to survive
a terror attack, published last month, included tips on what to do in the event of a 'chemical, biological or radiological attack' ('Move away from the immediate source of danger', it usefully
advised). Spine-chilling books such as Plague Wars: A True Story of Biological Warfare, The New Face of Terrorism: Threats From Weapons of Mass Destruction and The Survival Guide:
What to Do in a Biological, Chemical or Nuclear Emergency speculate over what kind of horrors WMD might wreak. TV docudramas, meanwhile, explore how Britain might cope with a
smallpox assault and what would happen if London were 'dirty nuked' (4). The term 'weapons of mass destruction' refers to three types of weapons: nuclear, chemical and biological. A
chemical weapon is any weapon that uses a manufactured chemical, such as sarin, mustard gas or hydrogen cyanide, to kill or injure. A biological weapon uses bacteria or viruses, such as
smallpox or anthrax, to cause destruction - inducing sickness and disease as a means of undermining enemy forces or inflicting civilian casualties. We find such weapons repulsive, because of
the horrible way in which the victims convulse and die - but they appear to be less 'destructive' than conventional weapons. 'We know that nukes are massively destructive, there is a lot of
evidence for that', says Rapoport. But when
it comes to chemical and biological weapons, 'the evidence suggests that we should call them
"weapons of minimum destruction", not mass destruction', he says. Chemical weapons have most commonly been used by states, in military warfare. Rapoport
explored various state uses of chemicals over the past hundred years: both sides used them in the First World War; Italy deployed chemicals against the Ethiopians in the 1930s; the Japanese
used chemicals against the Chinese in the 1930s and again in the Second World War; Egypt and Libya used them in the Yemen and Chad in the postwar period; most recently, Saddam
Hussein's Iraq used chemical weapons, first in the war against Iran (1980-1988) and then against its own Kurdish population at the tail-end of the Iran-Iraq war. In each instance, says
Rapoport, chemical weapons were used more in desperation than from a position of strength or a desire to cause mass destruction. 'The evidence is that states rarely use them even when they
have them', he has written. 'Only when a military stalemate has developed, which belligerents who have become desperate want to break, are they used.' (5) As to whether such use of chemicals
was effective, Rapoport says that at best it blunted an offensive - but this very rarely, if ever, translated into a decisive strategic shift in the war, because the original stalemate continued after
the chemical weapons had been deployed. He points to the example of Iraq. The Baathists used chemicals against Iran when that nasty trench-fought war had reached yet another stalemate. As
Efraim Karsh argues in his paper 'The Iran-Iraq War: A Military Analysis': 'Iraq employed [chemical weapons] only in vital segments of the front and only when it saw no other way to check
Iranian offensives. Chemical weapons had a negligible impact on the war, limited to tactical rather than strategic [effects].' (6) According to Rapoport, this 'negligible' impact of chemical
weapons on the direction of a war is reflected in the disparity between the numbers of casualties caused by chemicals and the numbers caused by conventional weapons. It is estimated that the
use of gas in the Iran-Iraq war killed 5,000 - but the Iranian side suffered around 600,000 dead in total, meaning that gas killed less than one per cent. The deadliest use of gas occurred in the
First World War but, as Rapoport points out, it still only accounted for five per cent of casualties. Studying the amount of gas used by both sides from1914-1918 relative to the number of
fatalities gas caused, Rapoport has written: 'It took a ton of gas in that war to achieve a single enemy fatality. Wind and sun regularly dissipated the lethality of the gases. Furthermore, those
gassed were 10 to 12 times as likely to recover than those casualties produced by traditional weapons.' (7) Indeed, Rapoport discovered that some earlier documenters of the First World War
had a vastly different assessment of chemical weapons than we have today - they considered the use of such weapons to be preferable to bombs and guns, because chemicals caused fewer
fatalities. One wrote: 'Instead of being the most horrible form of warfare, it is the most humane, because it disables far more than it kills, ie, it has a low fatality ratio.' (8) 'Imagine that', says
Rapoport, 'WMD being referred to as more humane'. He says that the contrast between such assessments and today's fears shows that actually looking at the evidence has benefits, allowing
'you to see things more rationally'. According to Rapoport, even Saddam's use of gas against the Kurds of Halabja in 1988 - the most recent use by a state of chemical weapons and the most
commonly cited as evidence of the dangers of 'rogue states' getting their hands on WMD - does not show that unconventional weapons are more destructive than conventional ones. Of course
the attack on Halabja was horrific, but he points out that the circumstances surrounding the assault remain unclear. 'The estimates of how many were killed vary greatly', he tells me. 'Some say
400, others say 5,000, others say more than 5,000. The fighter planes that attacked the civilians used conventional as well as unconventional weapons; I have seen no study which explores how
many were killed by chemicals and how many were killed by firepower. We all find these attacks repulsive, but the death toll may actually have been greater if conventional bombs only were
that terrorist use of chemical and biological weapons is similar to state use
- in that it is rare and, in terms of causing mass destruction, not very effective. He cites the work of journalist and author John Parachini, who says that over
the past 25 years only four significant attempts by terrorists to use WMD have been recorded. The most effective WMD-attack by a non-state
group, from a military perspective, was carried out by the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka in 1990. They used chlorine gas against Sri Lankan soldiers
guarding a fort, injuring over 60 soldiers but killing none. The Tamil Tigers' use of chemicals angered their support base, when some of the chlorine
drifted back into Tamil territory - confirming Rapoport's view that one problem with using unpredictable and unwieldy chemical and biological weapons over conventional
weapons is that the cost can be as great 'to the attacker as to the attacked'. The Tigers have not used WMD since.
used. We know that conventional weapons can be more destructive.' Rapoport says
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AT: CHILD ABUSE
1. There are numerous reasons for child abuse- can’t solve them all.
Lesa Bethea. March 15, 1999. (Clinical assistant professor of family medicine in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine
at the University of South Carolina School of Medicine. “Primary Prevention of Child Abuse” The American Family Physician.
http://www.aafp.org/afp/990315ap/1577.html. KK)
Child abuse is 15 times more likely to occur in families where spousal abuse occurs. Children are three times more likely to be abused
by their fathers than by their mothers.10 No differences have been found in the incidence of child abuse in rural versus urban settings.
Personal Factors
Parents who were abused as children are more likely than other parents to abuse their own children. However, the retrospective
methodology of research in this area has been criticized. 8 Lack of parenting skills, unrealistic expectations about a child's capabilities,
ignorance of ways to manage a child's behavior and of normal child development may further contribute to child abuse. 8,18 It is
estimated that 40 percent of confirmed cases of child abuse are related to substance abuse. 19 It is also estimated that 11 percent of
pregnant women are substance abusers, and that 300,000 infants are born each year to mothers who abuse crack cocaine. 20 Domestic
violence also increases the risk of child abuse.21
Other factors that increase the risk of child abuse include emotional immaturity of the parents, which is often highly correlated to
actual age (as in the case of teenage parents),22 poor coping skills, often related to age but also occurring in older parents,8,15,22 poor
self-esteem and other psychologic problems experienced by either one or both parents,8,15 single parenthood and the many burdens and
hardships of parenting that must be borne without the help of a partner, 8 social isolation of the parent or parents from family and
friends and the resulting lack of support that their absence implies, 8,23 any situation involving a handicapped child or one that is born
prematurely or at a low birth weight, any situation where a sibling younger than 18 months of age is already present in the home,8,24
any situation in which the child is the result of an unwanted pregnancy or a pregnancy that the mother denies,25-27 any situation where
one sibling has been reported to child protective services for suspected abuse 28 and, finally, the general inherent stress of parenting
which, when combined with the pressure of any one or a combination of the factors previously mentioned, may exacerbate any
difficult situtation8,15,16 (Figure 1).
2. Substance Abuse Accounts for 70 percent of child neglect cases.
Child Welfare Information Gateway. 2009. (A service of the Children's Bureau, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services. “Acts of Omission: Child Neglect” http://www.enotalone.com/article/9911.html. KK)
Some CPS agencies estimate that substance abuse is a factor in as many as 70 percent of all the child neglect cases they serve. But
what is the connection between substance abuse and neglect, specifically?
A number of researchers have explored the relationship between parental substance abuse and child neglect. They have found that
substance abusing parents may divert money that is needed for basic necessities to buy drugs and alcohol. Parental substance abuse
may interfere with the ability to maintain employment, further limiting the family's resources. The substance abusing behaviors may
expose the children to criminal behaviors and dangerous people. Substance abusing parents may be emotionally or physically
unavailable and not able to properly supervise their children, risking accidental injuries. Children living with substance abusing
parents are more likely to become intoxicated themselves, either deliberately, by passive inhalation, or by accidental ingestion. Heavy
parental drug use can interfere with a parent's ability to provide the consistent nurturing and caregiving that promotes children's
development and self-esteem. According to Magura and Laudet, "Substance abuse has deleterious effects on virtually every aspect of
one's life and gravely interferes with the ability to parent adequately".
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Impact File 2.0
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AT: CHINA AGRESSION
Even if China was aggressive, the impact is mitigated --- only wants to tweak and anything else would take too long
Jones, 07 – foreign affairs at University of St. Andrew (“China’s Rise and American Hegemony: Towards a Peaceful Co-Existence?”
E-International Relations, 2007, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=149)
However, the degree to which a state attempts to change the status quo can vary. Thus, China does not currently demonstrate a
fundamental revolutionary wish to overthrow the entire international system, but rather a minor tweaking. Indeed, China’s rise has
come by playing by Western capitalist rules. Therefore, this essay cautions against sensationalism. In the regional sphere, China now
appears unimpeded by either Japan or Russia for the first time in two centuries, and thus is beginning to project its influence in the
region. Cooperation on North Korea illustrates that the United States is willing to collaborate with China to reach its regional security
goals. Additionally, China has also used liberal institutionalism to increase political power and further engage with the region. The
recent October 2006 ASEAN-China Commemorative Summit sought to deepen political, security and economic ties, and concluded
that the strategic partnership had ‘boosted…development and brought tangible benefits to their peoples, [and] also contributed
significantly to peace, stability and prosperity in the region.’ China’s gradual, natural progression of influence should not be feared.
Alluding to soft power, liberal theorist Joseph Nye illustrates China’s slow shift by contending that ‘it will take much longer before
[China] can make an impact close to what the U.S. enjoys now.’
No Chinese Aggression --- ASEAN checks
Weissmann, 09 --- senior fellow at the Swedish School of Advanced Asia Pacific Studies (Mikael Weissmann, “Understanding the
East Asian Peace: Some Findings on the Role of Informal Processes,” Nordic Asia Research Community, November 2, 2009,
http://barha.asiaportal.info/blogs/in-focus/2009/november/understanding-east-asian-peace-some-findings-role-informal-processes-mi)
It has been important for ASEAN’s attempt to socialise China into becoming a responsible big power in the regional community, in
order to ensure that the Chinese interests would gradually become integrated with the interests of East Asia as a whole. Over time,
China has re-interpreted its role and interests as a rising power and has engaged in the ASEAN+3 process and embraced
multilateralism and the ASEAN Way. This has been a reciprocal process between China’s ‘soft power diplomacy’ and ASEAN’s
‘constructive engagement’ policies. It is difficult to say what has caused what, i.e., to what extent China has been socialised by
ASEAN to accept current practices and to become what seems to be a more benign power, and to what extent the Chinese policies
have influenced ASEAN’s increased acceptance of China as a partner and a (relatively) benign, peacefully rising power. It is most
likely that it is not an either–or question, but a transformation where there have been synergy effects between ‘soft-power diplomacy’
and “constructive engagement”. Regionalisation has also ensured that China (and others) adheres to an ‘economic first’ foreign policy
focus, and that the overall peaceful relations in East Asia have developed and have been institutionalised. Although multilateralism
and institutionalisation have only been identified in the South China Sea and Sino–ASEAN relations, they still have a spill over effect
on Chinese behaviour in other conflicts. If China would behave badly in one case, it would risk losing its laboriously built trust
towards ASEAN.
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Impact File 2.0
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AT: CHINA BASHING
1. US politicians won’t let China bashing get out of control:
AFP, 6/22/2008 (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hjYxYPat679CouKzkuC--lvK8Mpg)
China has also challenged longstanding US military dominance in Asia, and some experts say that in five years, the Asian giant with
an exploding manufacturing sector may be able assemble the "building blocks" of a military superpower. President George W. Bush
and his recent predecessors all determined that they had to make the relationship between the world's most developed nation and
biggest developing economy work, the experts said, and senators Obama and McCain would also very quickly come to that
conclusion.
"When you are dealing with an economic superpower of that magnitude one does not give the impression of a desire for a
confrontation unless one is pushed to the wall," said John Tkacik, a former China expert at the State Department. "And China is
simply too big an economic actor to confront head on if one doesn't have to," he said.
2. China won’t allow protectionism to spiral into a trade war:
Scott Tong, 6/24/2008
(http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/06/24/china_fingerwagging)
Tong: Well, there's talk of protectionism in Congress, that China isn't proceeding quickly enough. From China's perspective, the
technicians who are trying to tweak the economy, most people tell me that this push back rhetoric right now at least is not going to
lead into protectionism from the Chinese side, that what motivates them principally is political stability and if they can go in the right
direction in a way that's politically stable, they're going to keep going in that direction and for all the rhetoric and finger wagging
globally, it's going to be motivated by domestic concerns first.
3. Any US protectionism will be rolled back—steel tariffs prove:
Seattle Times, 1/5/2004; Lexis
Next, freeing international trade from heavy regulation. Dean says he will not sign trade agreements unless they include labor and
environmental standards. Whose standards? Ours? Poor countries cannot afford them. There is room for compromise, but recent
debates on trade suggest industries or unions often push for protectionism under the cloak of fairness. A protectionist trade policy, no
matter how it is camouflaged, can't exist for long in today's global economy. Look at President Bush's failed steel tariff as an example.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
80/420
AT: CHINESE ECONOMY
Chinese economy resilient – has powered through natural disasters and the economic meltdown
IHS Global Insight 7/17/2009: Momentum of Chinese Growth Proves Resilient to Natural Disasters, Global Risks.
http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail13363.htm
Although momentum moderated, the Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of 2008 in the face of a string of natural
disasters and mounting downside risks in the global economic outlook. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today
revealed that the economy expanded by 10.4% y/y in the first half of the year, after expanding by 10.1% in the second quarter. In the
three months through March, the economy expanded by 10.6%. Severe snowstorms at the beginning of the year, the huge earthquake
in Sichuan province in May, and recent flooding in other areas had been expected to rob growth of some traction, compounded by
reversals in U.S.-led global demand. The second-quarter outturn marked the slowest rate of growth since 2005, but also the 14th
consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
No impact to the Chinese economy and the CCP solves econ collapse
Coonan 08 (10/25, Clifford, IrishTimes.com, “China's stalling boom has globe worried,”
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/1025/1224838827729.html)
All of this downbeat news feeds into a growing suspicion that China has had its cake and eaten for way too long, and that there is simply no precedent for a country growing and growing
A hangover is
considered inevitable and the Olympics, while meaningless economically, are widely considered the psychological trigger for China to face a slowdown. Despite
all this gloom, however, writing China off is premature. The Beijing government is well placed to help protect the economy from the worst
ravages of a global downturn. It has spent the last two years trying to fight inflation and cool the overheating economy, so it's a
lot easier for it to take the foot off the brakes than it is to put them on in the first place. The central bank has lowered its
benchmark interest rate twice in the past two months, the first time in six years. The State Council is increasing spending on
infrastructure, offering tax rebates for exporters and allowing state-controlled prices for agricultural products to rise. Expect significant
measures to kick-start the property market to avoid house prices falling too drastically. China has a lot of plus points to help out.
Chinese banks did not issue subprime loans as a rule, and the country's €1.43 trillion in hard-currency reserves is a useful war
chest to call on in a downturn. The currency is stable and there are high liquidity levels, all of which give China the most
flexibility in the world to fend off the impact of the global financial crisis, says JP Morgan economist Frank Gong. China is now a
globalised economy, but its domestic market is still massively underexploited, and it is to this market that the government will
most likely turn. While it is a globalised economy committed to the WTO, China is also a centralised economy run by the Communist Party, and it has no real political opposition at home
without some kind of respite. Establishing what that pause will look like and what it means to the rest of the world is the latest challenge facing global analysts.
to stop it acting however it sees fit to stop sliding growth. Should the economy start to worsen significantly, public anger will increase, but China has been so successful in keeping a tight leash
on the internet and the media that it is difficult for opposition to organise itself in a meaningful way. Recent years of surging growth in China have certainly done a lot to keep global economic
China's influence has been somewhat oversold. It is not a big enough economy by itself to keep the global
economy ticking over, accounting for 5 per cent of the world economy, compared to the United States with a muscular 28 per
cent. And whatever about slowing growth, 9 per cent is still an admirable rate, one that European leaders gathered this weekend in Beijing for the Asian-Europe Meeting would give their eye
data looking rosy, but perhaps
teeth to be able to present to their constituencies.
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AT: CHINA INDIA WAR
No risk of war – relations are resilient despite lots of reasons for conflict, China and India are bffls
Jing-dong Yuan (director of the Nonproliferation Education Program at the Center for Non-proliferation Studies and an associate
professor of international policy studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies) 2007: The Dragon and the Elephant:
Chinese-Indian Relations in the 21st Century. www.twq.com/07summer_yuan.pdf
Despite unresolved territorial disputes, mutual suspicions over each other’s military buildup and strategic intent, potential economic
competition, and the changing balance of power and realignments, China and India have enjoyed 10 years of mostly uninterrupted
progress in their political, economic, and security relationship. President Hu Jintao’s November 2006 visit to India, the first such visit
by a Chinese head of state in a decade, marked an important milestone in the bilateral relationship. During Hu’s visit, the two
governments issued a joint statement highlighting a 10-point strategy to elevate the relationship and signed more than a dozen
agreements to strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, energy, and cultural and educational exchanges.
World No Go Boom???
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Gonzo and Lison
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AT: CHINA JAPAN WAR
No Sino-Japanese conflict – Japanese cooperation on trade is key to China’s rise.
Yang Bojiang (professor and director of the Institute for Japanese Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International
Relations (CICIR) in Beijing) 2006: Redefining Sino-Japanese Relations after Koizumi. http://www.twq.com/06autumn/docs/06autumn_yang.pdf
Sino-Japanese cooperation on trade, investment, environmental pollution management, and energy efficiency are important for
China’s social and economic development. Japanese Official Development Assistance projects in China started in the late 1970s,
around the same time that China began its economic opening and reform policies, and played an important role in China’s initial
success. Although Japan’s importance in Chinese foreign trade has decreased in recent years, Japan, as the second-largest economic
power in the world, is still an important long-term international strategic resource for China’s peaceful rise.
China, based on its development strategy, hopes to cooperate with Japan. Since the 2005 demonstrations, the Chinese
government has repeatedly stated that it will not change its mutually beneficial and cooperative policy toward Japan and that
it hopes to return to a healthy Sino-Japanese relationship soon. Yet, Chinese support for a Japanese role in international affairs
hinges on a better understanding of Japan’s future strategy. An official Beijing-Tokyo dialogue would help each one understand the
other’s positions. China and Japan have mixed histories regarding being the most powerful East Asian countries and also being
humiliated and marginalized, which has left both with superiority and inferiority complexes. As a result, nationalism has a stronger
influence on Sino-Japanese relations than Chinese relations with other countries. Furthermore, as Chinese society has become increasingly open, Beijing’s diplomatic decisionmakers have paid closer attention to public opinion. An official dialogue could help both
countries manage these conflicting pressures by clarifying the problems and potential solutions.
Bilateral cooperation and strong Sino-Japanese relations solves for stability --- mitigates risk of impact
ISDP, 08 (Institute for Security and Defensive Policy, “Sino-Japanese Relations,” China Initiative, http://www.isdp.eu/programs-ainitiatives/china-initiative/sino-japanese-relations.html)
Throughout history, the relationship between China and Japan has more often than not been marked by mistrust and animosity, or
even violent conflict. Despite three decades of normalized bilateral relations, several past and present issues serve to complicate the
relation between the two states. Since a positive and functioning relationship between China and Japan, the two great powers in
Northeast Asia, in many ways is a prerequisite for peace and stability in the region, a souring bilateral relationship is not only
problematic for the states involved, but has implications for neighboring states and the international community at large. Against this
background, it has become increasingly important to understand, identify and implement measures that can prevent and manage
conflicts and disputes between these two states. This said, the Sino-Japanese relations have been on the mend since Shinzo Abe (安倍
晋三) assumed the Prime Minister's office in September 2006. His visit to China in October 2006 and the reciprocal visits of Chinese
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao (温家宝) in April 2007 and President Hu Jintao in May 2008 facilitated the further thawing of bilateral
relations under the framework of "mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic relationship." A substantial number of
additional events have indicated the continuation of the positive trend in the strengthening of the bilateral relations. As one example,
in one attempt to initiate debate on the issue of historical perception on the 20th century Sino-Japanese relations, a joint committee of
Chinese and Japanese historians was established in an effort to reach a certain understanding of each other´s perception of common
history, mainly the atrocities from the Second World War. On the military side, the establishment of a hot-line in November 2007 and
the port visits by the fleets represented important confidence building measures. Furthermore, China and Japan are in fact sustaining
injured US dollar economy under current severe financial crisis. This may provide more opportunity for cooperation between the two
countries. All of these bilateral efforts have been very positive.
World No Go Boom???
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83/420
AT: CHINESE MILITARY MODERNIZATION
1. Military Modernization does not trigger conflict
A. Cooperation checks – China’s rise is not zero sum
Zweig, Hong Kong University China Transnational Relations Center Director, and Jianhai, Hong Kong University China
Transnational Relations Center Director Postdoctoral Fellow, October 2005 [David, Bi, "China's Global Hunt for Energy," Foreign Affairs]
For now, Washington's views about China's possible militarization remain divided and in flux. In February, Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld said that although the Pentagon was watching China's growing naval power, he could not confirm reports that in a decade
the size of the Chinese fleet would surpass that of the U.S. Navy. But in May, Rumsfeld challenged Beijing to explain why it is
increasing its military investments when China faces no major threat. Assistant Secretary of State Hill, for his part, does not perceive
China as a serious threat to the United States; he has said that China's rise is not a zero-sum game for Washington. Others claim that
China will need to expand more than its military capacity to remain secure. Bernard Cole of the National War College, for example,
has argued that "Beijing will not be able to rely on its navy alone to protect its vital [sea-lanes], but will have to engage [in] a range of
diplomatic and economic measures to ensure a steady supply of energy resources." Cui Tiankai, the director general of the Chinese
Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs Department, has confirmed the view that whatever Beijing's efforts to boost its navy, China will
continue to rely heavily on diplomacy and cooperation. Speaking at a conference at Hong Kong University last February, he argued
that countries along the Strait of Malacca have the main responsibility to protect the strait and that China is willing to cooperate with
them. He also expressed the hope that China, Japan, and South Korea could work together to ensure the flow of energy to Northeast
Asia. And although he said that he believes U.S. influence is expanding in the Strait of Malacca, he expressed no concern about it.
Thus, although Beijing is trying to build its own capacity to secure sea-lanes, it clearly wishes to continue to cooperate with -- and
sometimes free-ride on -- the United States, as well as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, to keep the straits open.
B. No intent
Pan, CFR staff writer, 6/2/2006 [Esther, "The Scope of China's Military Threat," http://www.cfr.org/publication/10824/scope_of_chinas_military_threat.html]
But some critics say the Pentagon is exaggerating the military threat from China, and accuse defense officials of "threat procurement," building up
China as an enemy in order to justify massive military spending on new defense and weapons systems. "I'm not sure why the Pentagon always uses a worst-case
scenario when assessing the military threat from China, but it does," says Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato
Institute. Richard C. Bush III, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, says, "Most experts would define 'threat' to
mean a combination of capability and intentions. There's no question that China is building up its capabilities, but China has displayed
no intentions of using those capabilities against the United States."
2. Military modernization inevitable – Taiwan tensions
Pan, CFR staff writer, 6/2/2006 [Esther, "The Scope of China's Military Threat," http://www.cfr.org/publication/10824/scope_of_chinas_military_threat.html]
Experts say much of China’s recent military buying—including of long- and short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, submarines, and advanced aircraft—
is directed at Taiwan. “Most credible experts would agree that China’s capacity building is focused on a Taiwan contingency,” Bush
says. “It’s primarily deterrence, persuading Taiwan not to do what China fears it will do: irreversibly and unilaterally change Taiwan’s legal status.” Beijing
currently has from 700 to 800 short-range missiles pointed across the Taiwan Strait. “China is worried about the functional equivalent of a [Taiwanese] Declaration of
Independence,” Bush says. The Pentagon report “expresses concern that China’s capability is shading beyond deterrence into coercion, trying to force Taiwan to
negotiate on China’s terms,” he says. And a good deal of China’s military expansion is also “designed to deter a U.S. response to a Taiwan Straits
crisis,” Segal says. Over the last decade, China has also invested in a new class of amphibious assault ships that would be critical for any invasions by sea.
China will never have the same military capabilities as the US
Blair and Hills 07 Dennis C. Blair, Former United States Director of National Intelligence, retired United States Navy Admiral. Carla A. Hills, former US Secretary of Housing and
Urban Development, former US Trade Representative, Co-Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, Chair of the National Commiittee on United States-China relations, primary
negotiator of NAFTA, 2007. [Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Approach]
The principal area in which the mission sets of the United States and China currently come into potential conflict is Taiwan.
China can damage Taiwan with missiles, but it can only take and hold Taiwan if it can win and sustain control of the space, air, and waters
around Taiwan—a difficult task without U.S. intervention, and nearly impossible should the United States intervene in a China-Taiwan war. The Task Force
finds that as a consequence of its military modernization, China is making progress toward being able to fight and win a war with
Taiwan (absent U.S. intervention), and it is also beginning to build capabilities to safeguard its growing global interests. The
mere existence of these capabilities—including anti-satellite systems—poses challenges for the United States. China does not
need to surpass the United States, or even catch up with the United States, in order to complicate U.S. defense planning or
influence U.S. decision-making in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere. Looking ahead as far as 2030, however, the Task Force
finds no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States. By virtue of its heritage and experience, its
equipment and level of technology, its personnel, and the resources it spends, the United States enjoys space, air, and naval superiority over
China. The military balance today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies.
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AT: CHINA RISE
1. Rise is inevitable – by 2015, China will surpass the US as the world’s superpower
Dylan Kissane - professor at the University of South Australia - 2005 (“2015 and the Rise of China,”
http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=dylankissane)
The United States peaked in its share of system power mid-century (1941) and has been in decline since. The accession of China and
the European Union to the major power system has further assisted in the decline in the relative share of system power maintained by
the world’s sole superpower. The decline remains slow but consistent, in stark contrast to the rising fortunes of China and even the
relatively gentle rise in the Japanese power cycle. It would be a mistake, however, to interpret this decline as evidence of the United States experiencing any significant
decline in any specific capabilities. Indeed, between 1981 and 2001 the US saw actual increases in four of the six capability indicators.29 As Doran and Parsons note, it
is not enough that a state experiences growth in the assessed capabilities in order to ‘grow’ their power cycle curve – the state must also ‘out-grow’ the rate of change of
other states in the system under investigation.30 In effect, a state must be ‘running to stand still’ else it will face a decline in relative power as the United States has in
the period post-1941. These somewhat superficial results, however, should not distract from the more integral and ultimately more significant implication which can be
drawn from the power cycle curves of the United States, Japan and China. By extrapolating the polynomial power cycle curves over a longer time period, that is,
continuing the current trend forward over time, the aforementioned critical points are seen to emerge within a short ‘window’ between 2015 and 2030. For strategists
imagining future security challenges for Australia – and particularly those with an interest in Australia’s position in the Asia-Pacific – this is the most important of the
results which can be gained from power cycle analysis of international power politics. According to power cycle analysis, it would seem that the year
2015 is the beginning of the end for US predominance in international power politics. Figure 5 (below) illustrates graphically the
continuing rise and decline of the three Asia-Pacific powers in the coming decades. By the year 2015 China will have overtaken the
United States as the predominant actor in the major power system. Between them, the US and China will account for more than 50%
of the total major power systems relative power, with Japan accounting for almost another 20%. Thus, when Paul Krugman
questions whether the United States can ‘stay on top’ of the world economically, the answer must be a clear ‘no’.31 Further, as
the forecasts here are based upon a power cycle methodology that balances military and economic capabilities, it may not even be
possible to claim that US military dominance will also continue. The reality is that a new ‘Asian Century’ will begin to emerge
around 2015 with the West, including Europe and particularly the geographically close Australia, forced to realise that the centres of global politics will not be in
London, Paris and New York but rather in Beijing, Tokyo and on the American west coast. The rise of China and the resultant – because in a relative
system the rise of one is the fall of others – decline of the US will be the defining features of early twenty-first century power politics.
The world will not turn to the West but rather the West will turn to the new heart of global politics: the Asia-Pacific.
2. Rise will be peaceful - China desires global preeminence and is currently engaging in peaceful means to achieve it
Zbigniew Brzezinski- national security affairs advisor to the Carter administration - 2/05 (“Make Money, Not War,” Foreign Policy,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2740)
There will be inevitable frictions as China’s regional role increases and as a Chinese “sphere of influence” develops. U.S. power may
recede gradually in the coming years, and the unavoidable decline in Japan’s influence will heighten the sense of China’s regional
preeminence. But to have a real collision, China needs a military that is capable of going toe-to-toe with the United States. At the
strategic level, China maintains a posture of minimum deterrence. Forty years after acquiring nuclear-weapons technology, China has
just 24 ballistic missiles capable of hitting the United States. Even beyond the realm of strategic warfare, a country must have the capacity to attain its
political objectives before it will engage in limited war. It is hard to envisage how China could promote its objectives when it is acutely vulnerable to a blockade and
isolation enforced by the United States. In a conflict, Chinese maritime trade would stop entirely. The flow of oil would cease, and the Chinese economy would be
paralyzed. I have the sense that the Chinese are cautious about Taiwan, their fierce talk notwithstanding. Last March, a Communist Party magazine noted that “we have
basically contained the overt threat of Taiwanese independence since [President] Chen [Shuibian] took office, avoiding a worst-case scenario and maintaining the status
of Taiwan as part of China.” A public opinion poll taken in Beijing at the same time found that 58 percent thought military action was unnecessary. Only 15 percent
supported military action to “liberate” Taiwan. Of course, stability today does not ensure peace tomorrow. If China were to succumb to internal violence, for example,
all bets are off. If sociopolitical tensions or social inequality becomes unmanageable, the leadership might be tempted to exploit nationalist passions. But the small
possibility of this type of catastrophe does not weaken my belief that we can avoid the negative consequences that often accompany the rise of new
powers. China is clearly assimilating into the international system. Its leadership appears to realize that attempting to dislodge the
United States would be futile, and that the cautious spread of Chinese influence is the surest path to global preeminence.
Chinese influence isn’t zero sum with the west --- shared regional values mitigate the risk of conflict
Bitzinger & Desker, 08 – senior fellow and dean of S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies respectively (Richard A. Bitzinger, Barry
Desker, “Why East Asian War is Unlikely,” Survival, December 2008, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com-/678328_731200556_906256449.pdf)
The argument that there is an emerging Beijing Consensus is not premised on the rise of the East and decline of the West, as
sometimes seemed to be the sub-text of the earlier Asian-values debate.7 However, like the earlier debate, the new one reflects
alternative philosophical traditions. The issue is the appropriate balance between the rights of the individual and those of the state.
This emerging debate will highlight the shared identity and values of China and the other states in the region, even if conventional
realist analysts join John Mearsheimer to suggest that it will result in ‘intense security competition with considerable potential for war’
in which most of China’s neighbours ‘will join with the United States to contain China’s power’.8 These shared values are likely to
reduce the risk of conflict and result in regional pressure for an accommodation of and engagement with an emerging China,
rather than confrontation.
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EXT #2 – PREACEFUL RISE
China is rising peacefully - a confrontational policy by the US would only lead to Chinese economic slowdown
Zbigniew Brzezinski- national security affairs advisor to the Carter administration - 2/05 (“Make Money, Not War,” Foreign Policy,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2740)
Today in East Asia, China is rising—peacefully so far. For understandable reasons, China harbors resentment and even humiliation
about some chapters of its history. Nationalism is an important force, and there are serious grievances regarding external issues,
notably Taiwan. But conflict is not inevitable or even likely. China’s leadership is not inclined to challenge the United States
militarily, and its focus remains on economic development and winning acceptance as a great power. China is preoccupied, and almost
fascinated, with the trajectory of its own ascent. When I met with the top leadership not long ago, what struck me was the frequency
with which I was asked for predictions about the next 15 or 20 years. Not long ago, the Chinese Politburo invited two distinguished,
Western-trained professors to a special meeting. Their task was to analyze nine major powers since the 15th century to see why they
rose and fell. It’s an interesting exercise for the top leadership of a massive and complex country. This focus on the experience of past
great powers could lead to the conclusion that the iron laws of political theory and history point to some inevitable collision or
conflict. But there are other political realities. In the next five years, China will host several events that will restrain the conduct of its
foreign policy. The 2008 Olympic Games is the most important, of course. The scale of the economic and psychological investment in
the Beijing games is staggering. My expectation is that they will be magnificently organized. And make no mistake, China intends to
win at the Olympics. A second date is 2010, when China will hold the World Expo in Shanghai. Successfully organizing these
international gatherings is important to China and suggests that a cautious foreign policy will prevail. More broadly, China is
determined to sustain its economic growth. A confrontational foreign policy could disrupt that growth, harm hundreds of
millions of Chinese, and threaten the Communist Party’s hold on power. China’s leadership appears rational, calculating, and
conscious not only of China’s rise but also of its continued weakness.
China is committed to a peaceful rise
Bijian 05 – Chair of the China Reform Forum
(Zheng Bijian, Summary of the article: “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great Power Status.” Foreign Affairs, October/September 2005.
Pg.1 , http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61015/zheng-bijian/chinas-peaceful-rise-to-great-power-status)
Despite widespread fears about China's growing economic clout and political stature, Beijing remains committed to a "peaceful rise":
bringing its people out of poverty by embracing economic globalization and improving relations with the rest of the world. As it
emerges as a great power, China knows that its continued development depends on world peace -- a peace that its development will in
turn reinforce.
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AT: CHINA (ROUGE STATES IMPACT)
No link – China not obstructing international efforts anymore
International Crisis Group, Belgium Based Think Tank, June 2008
[China's Thirst for Oil," http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478&l=1]
While continuing to shield these countries from criti- cism, China is shifting from outright obstructionism to a more nuanced strategy
of balancing its short-term resource needs with its desire to be seen as a respon- sible power. It is playing a more constructive role in
multilateral processes and supporting some forms of international intervention in ways that were unimag- inable just a few years
ago.165 In particular, its coop- eration is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises
in North Korea, Iran, Sudan and Myanmar/Burma.166 And it now contributes more troops to UN peacekeep- ing missions than any
other P-5 Security Council member.167
While this shifting approach can be attributed in part to a desire to project a good international image in the lead-up to the 2008
Olympics, it also reflects the need to protect more basic national interests. Beijing is learning the perils of entrusting its energy
security to unpopular and, in many cases, fragile regimes.168
While non-interference may have been useful to it in signing initial energy deals, it is less helpful in secur- ing these interests over
the long term in the face of mounting risks to its investments, citizens and secu- rity. Political crisis and conflict lead to defaults on
loans and investments and threaten equity oil. Escala- tion of the Darfur conflict, for example, jeopardises China’s investments in
Sudan, as the conflict’s spread threatens its nascent investments in Chad. Direct threats to Chinese citizens are growing, as seen in attacks and kidnappings in Ethiopia and the Niger Delta,169 as well as Sudan, and in anti-Chinese demon- strations in Zambia.170
These human and political costs are causing some in the leadership to question the merits of the “go out” strategy.171
Darfur crisis inevitable – China can’t influence Sudan
International Crisis Group, Belgium Based Think Tank, June 2008
[China's Thirst for Oil," http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478&l=1]
China cannot single-handedly solve the Darfur cri- sis.243 Nor is the Sudanese government easy to influ- ence. It has a wide network
of supporters, including a number of Arab countries, and has benefited from powerful voices in the AU supporting the need for its
consent to any peacekeeping operation. Nevertheless China is in a position to use more diplomatic, eco- nomic and military leverage
than it currently employs and to work more closely with the rest of the interna- tional community on coordinating a united stance. It
has been willing to tighten the screws on clients else- where: for example, it was quick to denounce Py- ongyang and agree to
Security Council sanctions fol- lowing North Korea’s October 2006 nuclear test – a position that was essential to the subsequent
denu- clearisation agreement.
China will never coop on Iran – they believe Iran has a right to nuclear power
International Crisis Group, Belgium Based Think Tank, June 2008
[China's Thirst for Oil," http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478&l=1]
Beijing fundamentally believes that as long as Iran honours its NPT commitments not to use nuclear tech- nology for military
purposes, it should not be obliged to forgo its rights under that treaty to the technology. Behind this is a belief in “fairness for weaker
powers” (ie, non-nuclear) as a normative goal and a desire to demonstrate, as the fastest growing developing nation, that it does not
belong to what it considers a bullying clique lead by the U.S.269 China has long advocated that the U.S. negotiate directly with Iran
and cease in- sisting on preconditions for such negotiations.
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AT: CHINESE SOFT POWER
China’s attempts to gain soft power are failing – lack of human rights, free speech, and democracy
Ford, 10 (4/29/10, Peter, Christian Science Monitor, “On eve of Shanghai Expo 2010, China finds 'soft power' an elusive goal; Chinese authorities have seized on the Shanghai Expo 2010
- the largest in history - as another chance to enhance 'soft power' that is generated by the spread of cultures, values, diplomacy, and trade. The expo opens this weekend” Lexis)
At the heart of the Shanghai World Expo stands the host nation's pavilion, a giant latticed crown painted crimson. Packed with exhibits portraying daily Chinese life, China's ethnic diversity, and the standard bearers of
Chinese philosophy, the display shows China's friendliest face to the world. Hard on the heels of the Beijing Olympics, the authorities here have seized on the Expo - the largest in history - as another chance to improve the
Learning how to win friends and influence people is a task to which the government has attached the highest
priority in recent years. It appears, however, to be failing. A BBC poll released in April found that only one-third of respondents in 14 countries believe
China is a positive influence, down from one-half just five years ago. IN PICTURES: Shanghai World Expo 2010 "The government is putting a lot of resources and a lot of
rising giant's international image.
attention into boosting China's 'soft power,' but they've got a lot of problems with the message," says David Shambaugh, head of the China Policy Program at George Washington University in Washington. "The core aspects
one-party rule, media censorship, and suppression of critics - "are just not appealing to outsiders." Chinese
policymakers and academics are increasingly fascinated by "soft power," whereby nations coopt foreign governments and citizens through the spread of their cultures, values,
of their system" - such as
diplomacy, and trade, rather than coerce them by military might. Frustrated by Western domination of global media, from entertainment to news, and by what it sees as unfair coverage, China has launched a $6.6 billion
campaign to tell its own story to the world by building its own media empires. Li Changchun, the ruling Communist Party's top ideology official, was blunt in a 2008 speech: "Whichever nation's communications capacity is
the strongest, it is that nation whose culture and core values spread far and wide ... that has the most power to influence the world," he said. Is the message convincing? But this is not enough, says Li Xiguang, head of the
Even the best-paid messengers need a convincing message. "The United States has
built its soft power by making its value and political system ... universal values," he says. "China will not beat the US in soft power until
we have a better and newer form of democracy, freedom, and human rights." China has had some success in projecting soft power in
developing countries, especially in Africa. "Wherever you go in Africa, roads are being built, and the people building them are Chinese," says Aly Khan Satchu, a financial analyst in Nairobi.
International Center for Communications Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
"China expresses its soft power through building infrastructure." China's rapid economic development is an inspiration to many Africans, says Mr. Satchu. "The Chinese are selling themselves as having experienced catch-up
and offering to help African governments do the same," he says. Chinese firms are also preparing to bid on high-speed railroads in California and elsewhere in the United States. Americans are familiar with some Chinese
cultural icons. "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (2000) was a blockbuster movie, and Houston Rockets basketball star Yao Ming is a household name. But China lacks a Hollywood or a US-style TV industry. Part of the
problem, suggests Pang Zhongying, of Beijing's Renmin Univer-sity, is that English, unlike Chinese, is an international language. Even with the creation of more than 200 Confucius Institutes around the world teaching
Chinese, "I don't think China can overcome this difficulty in the short term." At the same time, says François Godement, director of the Asia Centre in Paris, however admired Chinese culture may be, "it is less easily
translatable" to other cultures. Political control issuesAdding to the government's difficulties is its insistence on controlling all expressions of contemporary Chinese culture. Beijing squandered an opportunity at last year's
Frankfurt book fair, which showcased Chinese literature, by pressing for a ban on exiled writers. Press coverage focused not on Chinese authors but on Beijing's heavy hand. This desire for complete political control, says
Professor Godement, means that "they don't give creators the freedom to create works that would project soft power." "There is a huge gap between the official Chinese judgment and that of outsiders," adds Professor Pang.
"There are many intellectuals in China, but a good intellectual is not necessarily an officially recognized one." The government has opted instead to pursue public diplomacy, or "overseas propaganda," as it is known here.
Rarely does a month pass without a visit to Beijing by media managers and journalists from one developing country or another. But
this is not the same as projecting soft power, Mr. Shambaugh notes. "China has a huge soft power deficit," says Pang. "The current Chinese model
solves problems, of course, but it is also part of the problem. People outside China will pick China's virtues, but try to avoid its
disadvantages. We should learn from such natural choices, from the impression that China can only build roads and schools. That is a problem we must address." IN PICTURES: Shanghai World Expo 2010 Related:
China earthquake: day of mourning Official and grassroots relief groups rally in wake of China earthquake Web, religious freedom on agenda as US-China rights dialogue resumes All China coverage
Chinese soft power won’t solve – human rights abuses and lack of freedom
The Economist, 10 (1/9/10, “From the charm to the offensive: Banyan,” Lexis)
China's smile diplomacy shows its teeth IF A single impulse has defined Chinese diplomacy over the past decade, it is its smile: near and far, China
has waged a charm offensive. With its land neighbours, India excepted, China has amicably settled nearly all border disputes; it has abjured force in dealing with South-East Asian neighbours over still
unsettled maritime boundaries. On the economic front, the free-trade area launched on January 1st between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations is the world's biggest, by population. China's smiling leaders
China has scattered roads and football stadiums across Africa. By the hundreds, it has set up Confucius
Institutes around the world to spread Chinese language and culture. More than anything, the Beijing Olympics were designed to
showcase gentle President Hu Jintao's notions of a "harmonious world" . In all this, the leaders appear not simply to want to make good a perceived deficit in China's soft power
around the world. A more brutal calculus prevails: without peace, prosperity and prestige abroad, China will have no peace and prosperity at home. And
without that, the Chinese Communist Party is dust. Yet of late smiles have turned to snarls. The instances appear unrelated. Last month China bullied little
Cambodia into returning 22 Uighurs seeking political asylum after bloody riots and a brutal crackdow n in Xinjiang last summer. On December 25th,
despite China's constitutional guarantee of freedom of speech, a veteran human-rights activist, Liu Xiaobo, received a long prison
sentence for launching a charter that called for political freedoms. Western governments had urged leniency. Britain had also called for clemency for Akmal Shaikh, a Briton caught smuggling heroin into Xinjiang. Mr
promise it will spread prosperity. Farther afield,
Shaikh seems to have been duped by drugs gangs. His family insist he suffered mental problems and delusions. Yet the courts refused a psychiatric evaluation. Britain's prime minister, Gordon Brown, said he was "appalled"
by Mr Shaikh's execution. In turn, China lashed out at this supposed meddling and ordered Britain to "correct its mistakes". Sino-British relations, painstakingly improved in recent years, have come unravelled. It is harder to
complain of foreign meddling when Chinese actions have global consequences. During the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 the Chinese held the yuan steady as currencies all about them crumbled. Not only did that avert a
round of tit-for-tat devaluations. The regional respect China earned, its diplomats argue, paved the way for the charm offensive that soon followed. New-found respect gave China a taste for more. In contrast, during this
downturn many complain that China's dogged pegging of its currency to the dollar harms others. As the world's fastest-growing big economy, with the biggest current-account surplus and foreign reserves, its currency ought
by rights to be rising. By several yardsticks the yuan is undervalued and Americans and Europeans fear this leaves them with the pain of global rebalancing. ASEAN furniture-makers and nail foundries also beg for relief
from the mercantilist advantage that a manipulated currency gives China. Most striking of all were China's actions at the Copenhagen summit on climate change, where the world's biggest emitter appeared churlish. In a bid to
avoid being pinned down to firm commitments, China insisted that all figures and numerical targets be stripped out of the final accord, even those that did not apply to China. Further, China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, at
first did not deign to sit down with President Barack Obama on the final day, sending relatively junior officials instead. China may have got a deal it liked, but at the cost of a public-relations disaster. Some think this a
China will now try to patch up relations with Britain, and keep
putting a positive gloss on Copenhagen. Peace and prosperity is still the calculus. China is spending billions cranking up its state
media to go global, taking Mr Hu's message of "harmony" to a worldwide audience. But the message of harmony will ring hollow
abroad if it is secured by muzzling voices at home. Besides, there is now less goodwill to go around. A smile is fresh at first, but loses its charm if held for
too long. One problem with China's smile diplomacy, says the man who coined the phrase, Shi Yinhong of Renmin University in Beijing, is that China's global impact—its demand for
resources, its capacity to pollute—is so much greater than a decade ago. " For all we may smile, you can still smell us," he says. That even
prelude to a prickly, more unpleasant China in the decade ahead, but it is too soon to conclude that. More likely,
applies in places, such as Africa, where enthusiasm for China was once unbounded. China has more than a presentational problem. For instance, it sends Africa both destabilising arms and peacekeepers, the one generating
demand for the other. China's manufactures destroy local industries. Many Africans resent Chinese firms' deals with their unpleasant leaders and blame them when leaders pocket the proceeds. China's clout makes a mockery
of two guiding tenets of its charm offensive: relations on the basis of equality; and non-interference. That calls for a new diplomacy. China's presentational problems with the old one speak of an abiding lack of sophistication,
and an attachment to a ritualistic diplomacy ill-suited to fast-moving negotiations, such as in Copenhagen, where the outcome is not pre-cooked. Over the case of Mr Shaikh, the official press indulged in the predictable and
puerile ritual of railing about the historical indignity of the Opium War. Yet even many Chinese recognise that the world—and even drug-pushing British gunboat-diplomacy—has changed, and that it may be time to move
on. Banyan demands that China correct its mistakes.
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AT: CHINESE START WAR IN AFRICA
1. China won’t start a war with the US—they can’t win
Kane 06 (Lieutenant Colonel Gregory C. U.S. Army War College. “The Strategic Competition for the Continent of Africa”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/ksil387.pdf)
In short, while the PLA and the PLAN have made great improvements in their equipment and organizations, developed doctrine
based on recent wars, completely revamped their professional education systems, they are still a long way in terms of capabilities and
a long time away from competing with the current US military. Sheer numbers and modern weapons may tip the scales in their favor
close to the Chinese mainland, but the Chinese conventional military in their current state lacks the power projection and operational
capabilities to be a deterrent force in any conflict in Africa. Consequently, China will continue to have to rely on economic and
diplomatic elements of power to implement foreign policy in Africa.
2. China’s involvement in Africa is exaggerated
Bates Gill and James Reilly 2007 (Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, East Asia representative for the American Friends
Service Committee, “The Tenuous Hold of China Inc. in Africa,” Washington Quarterly, Summer, ln)
Most analysts, however, tend to exaggerate the prospects of China's corporate engagement in Africa. As it deepens, the Chinese
government will more likely find itself hamstrung by what theorists call a powerful "principal-agent" dilemma: an increasing set of
tensions and contradictions between the interests and aims of government principals--the bureaucracies based in Beijing tasked with
advancing China's overall national interests--and the aims and interests of ostensible agents--the companies and businesspersons
operating on the ground in Africa.
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AT: CHINA-TAIWAN WAR
1. Economic concerns prevent Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Ivan Eland, Cato director of defense policy studies, January 23, 2003, Cato Policy Analysis no. 465, “Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to
the United States?” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa465.pdf
Hostile behavior toward Taiwan could disturb China’s increasing economic linkage with the rest of the world—especially growing
commercial links with Taiwan. Because China’s highest priority is economic growth, the disruption of such economic relationships is
a disincentive for aggressive Chinese actions vis-à-vis Taiwan. Any attack short of invasion (using missiles or instituting a naval
blockade) would likely harm the Taiwanese economy and disrupt Chinese trade and financial contacts with Taiwan and other
developed nations without getting China what it most wants—control Taiwan. An amphibious invasion—in the unlikely event that it
succeeded—would provide such control but would cause even greater disruption in China’s commercial links to developed nations.
2. China won’t use an amphibious assault – it won’t succeed
Ivan Eland, Cato director of defense policy studies, January 23, 2003, Cato Policy Analysis no. 465, “Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to
the United States?” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa465.pdf
An amphibious assault on Taiwan is the least likely Chinese military option because of its low probability of success. Even without
U.S. assistance, the Taiwanese have the advantage of defending an island. An amphibious assault —that is, attacking over water and landing
against defended positions —is one of the hardest and most risky military operations to execute. In the Normandy invasion of 1944, the
Allies had strategic surprise, air and naval supremacy, crushing naval gunfire support, and a ground force coming ashore that was
vastly superior in numbers to that of the Germans. Yet even with all those advantages, the Allies had some difficulty establishing
beachheads. In any amphibious assault on Taiwan, China would be unlikely to have strategic surprise, air or naval supremacy
(Taiwanese air and naval forces are currently superior to those of the Chinese),38 or sufficient naval gunfire support, and its landing force would be
dwarfed by the Taiwanese army and reserves. Also, China has insufficient amphibious forces, dedicated amphibious ships to carry
them to Taiwan’s shores, and naval air defense to protect an amphibious flotilla from Taiwan’s superior air force. According to the
study by Swaine and Mulvenon of RAND, “Mainland China will likely remain unable to undertake such massive attack over the
medium-term, and perhaps, over the long-term as well.”39 In addition, probably for the next two decades, China’s lack of an
integrated air defense system could leave its homeland open to retaliatory attacks by the Taiwanese air force, which could deter a
Chinese attack on Taiwan in the first place. In the long term, even if China overcomes those deficiencies and Taiwan lags behind China in military
improvements, the Taiwanese could use a “porcupine strategy” against a superior foe. That is, the Taiwanese armed forces would not have to be strong enough
to win a war with the Chinese military; they would only have to be able to inflict enough damage to raise the cost of a Chinese invasion
significantly. In this regard, Taiwan may be helped by modern technology. Sea mines, precision-guided munitions (including anti-ship cruise
missiles), and satellite reconnaissance, which makes surprise difficult, may render any amphibious assault an exceptionally bloody
affair. In fact, some defense analysts believe that such technology has made large-scale amphibious assaults a thing of the past.
3. China can’t effectively implement a naval blockade of Taiwan
Ivan Eland, Cato director of defense policy studies, January 23, 2003, Cato Policy Analysis no. 465, “Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to
the United States?” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa465.pdf
Although more likely than an amphibious invasion of Taiwan,
a naval blockade using Chinese submarines and surface ships would face some of
the same problems as an amphibious flotilla. The poor air defenses on Chinese surface ships would render them vulnerable to attack
by superior Taiwanese air power. In addition, Chinese naval command and control is probably inadequate to manage a naval
quarantine. Although China has more submarines and surface warships in its navy than does Taiwan , the Taiwanese navy has superior surveillance and
anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare capabilities. Currently, the Chinese might very well be able to disrupt Taiwan’s commerce to a limited extent with
their modest mine-laying capability and submarine attacks (submarines are less susceptible than surface vessels to attack from the air), but even establishing a
partial blockade of certain ports would be difficult. By 2025, Swaine and Mulvenon predict that China could deny the use of the sea and air out to 500
nautical miles from China’s coastline and attempt a naval blockade within 200 nautical miles of that coastline.40 So even in 2025, China might not be able to
enforce a complete naval quarantine of Taiwan.
4. Missile attacks on Taiwan backfire
Ivan Eland, Cato director of defense policy studies, January 23, 2003, Cato Policy Analysis no. 465, “Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to
the United States?” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa465.pdf
In 1996 China tried to intimidate Taiwan with missile tests in the Taiwan Strait during Chinese military “exercises” at the time of the Taiwanese
presidential elections. Those actions had the opposite effect of that intended —the election outcome was not what the Chinese government had desired.
Actual missile attacks on Taiwan for the purpose of terrorizing the Taiwanese population would probably cause an even greater
backlash against China in Taiwan and the international community and could trigger retaliatory raids on the mainland by the superior
Taiwanese air force. Neither the accuracy nor the numbers of Chinese missiles now permit them to have a significant effect when used
against Taiwanese military targets. As Chinese missiles become more numerous and accurate, such missile attacks would become more militarily
consequential. But passive defense measures could reduce significantly the effectiveness of Chinese mis-----sile attacks on military targets.
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AT: CIVIC ENGAGEMENT
1. No connection between civic engagement, social networks, and democracy—Weimar Germany proves
Ariel Armony (assistant professor of government at Colby College) 2004: The Dubious Link: Civic Engagement and
Democratization, pp. 98-9)
Undemocratic civic engagement can take different forms. In this chap- ter I have analyzed patterns of associational activity whose
effect was inimical to democracy by looking at the intersections between social cleavages, political conditions, and their link to civic
engagement. Events in Weimar Germany challenge the assumption that civil society necessarily leads to democracy. As Max Weber
argued in the late nine- teenth century: "The quantitative spread of organizational life does not always go hand in hand with its
qualitative significance" (quoted in Koshar 1986a: 4). Active involvement in social clubs and other volun- tary associations, workbased networks, religious organizations, and informal social connections may be linked to the production of social capital, but there is
nothing inherent in these dimensions of civic en- gagement that connects them to democratic outcomes. In the Weimar Republic, Nazi
voters and supporters (outside of the party's activist core) were not ideological zealots. The growth of the Nazi project was facilitated,
using Putnam's (2000) terminology, by both machers and schmoozers (pp. 93-95). "In Yiddish," Putnam explains, "men and women
who invest lots of time in formal organizations are often termed machers—that is, people who make things happen in the community. By contrast, those who spend many hours in informal conver- sation and communion are termed schmoozers" (p. 93). Weimar
citizens organized at an unprecedented rate, leadership skills became available to wider sectors of the public, and membership in
voluntary organiza- tions increased dramatically, but German machers and schmoozers con- veyed antipolitical beliefs and
antidemocratic ideas (see Koshar 1986a: 161, 276). German civic activists built networks of reciprocity and so- ciability, but these
networks did not produce democratic results. The analysis of civic engagement requires that we understand not only political
processes at the level of the state, but also social processes pertaining to the unmaking (and remaking) of collective identities and
social boundaries (across class and other social cleavages) (Koshar 1986a: 282). Berman (1997b), for example, has argued that one
"factor to examine in determining when civil society activity will bolster or weaken a democratic regime . . . is the political context
within which that activity unfolds" (p. 567). Emphasizing the importance of strong political institutions for successful governance,
Berman focused on in- stitutional variables in her assessment of the impact of context on civil society activity. However, the political
sphere (e.g., political institution- alization) does not account for the interaction between conflicts in soci- ety and the characteristics of
the political regime, which in turn influ- ences patterns of civic engagement. As the case of Germany illustrates, the intersections of
class, gender, ethnicity, religion, and age—analyzed in light of the broader political context—are critical to understanding
participation in civil society. This is a case in which civil society con- tributed to corroding democracy to the point of its breakdown in
a con- text of fragile political institutionalization, heightened social polariza- tion, and severe economic dislocations. By contributing
to (rather than breaking) a "vicious circle," civil society offered a venue for disaffected citizens and this participation in turn deepened
their dissatisfaction with political institutions, hardened their grievances, and made them more willing to support antisystem solutions.
2. Civil society will inevitably disengage from the state
Ariel Armony (assistant professor of government at Colby College) 2004: The Dubious Link: Civic Engagement and
Democratization, pp. 149
Table 4.3 summarizes the most significant dimensions in the rela- tionship between civil society and the state.16 First, in a pattern of
con- frontation, the civil society-state relationship tends to be reduced to a zero-sum conflict.17 For some groups, human rights could
only be pro- moted in opposition to the state. In their view, the state was only capa- ble of violating such rights. Second, in setting
their strategic priorities, civic groups consider their objectives to be inherently opposite to those of the state and thus assume no
common ground for cooperation. For instance, some organizations in my study employed polar categories (democratic / authoritarian)
to define themselves in relation to a specific state agency (e.g., the Interior Ministry) and rejected any possible (for- mal or informal)
links with that agency. Third, the perception of the state held by participants in civil society organizations is important be- cause it
shapes the type of relationship that a group seeks with state agencies. Several organizations in my study depicted the state as inherently authoritarian and corrupt, perceiving the state apparatus as a monolithic entity, which convinced them that it was in their best
inter- est not to cooperate with government officials.
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EXT #1 – CIVIC ENGAGEMENT FAILS
Societal inquality prevents an effective public sphere
Ariel Armony (assistant professor of government at Colby College) 2004: The Dubious Link: Civic Engagement and
Democratization, pp. 34-5
One of the main tasks of studies on civil society, some argue, is to ex- amine the processes of communication in civil society and how
debates in the public sphere enter the sphere of the state (Cohen 1999: 71). For instance, as some studies have shown, the connection
between civil so- ciety and parliaments played a fundamental role in the development of prodemocratic civil societies in nineteenthcentury Europe (Bermeo 2000: 244-46). Associational life may contribute to "public opinion and public judgement," as Mark Warren
(2001) said, "especially by provid- ing the social infrastructure of public spheres that develop agendas, test ideas, embody
deliberations, and provide voice" (p. 61). This function, which he refers to as "public sphere effects," has the potential to "gener- ate
the 'force' of persuasion, as distinct from the forces of coercion and money" (pp. 34, 61, 77-82). As explained, the public sphere is a
fundamental locus for delibera- tion over political and social issues. However, it is important to qualify the idea of the public sphere as
an arena of discursive debate among peers (Habermas 1989: 36). Indeed, given the unequal distribution of so- cial resources in all
societies, the public sphere cannot stand as an arena where people produce a consensus about an all-encompassing "com- mon good"
(Fraser 1993: 4; Cohen 1999: 58). Societal actors in the pub- lic sphere cannot "deliberate as if they were social peers" because the
"discursive arenas" in which they interact are placed "in a larger socie- tal context that is pervaded by structural relations of
dominance and subordination" (Fraser 1993: 12). Understanding the implications of this idea requires attention to two issues. First, we
cannot ignore the role of inequality, social exclusion, and attacks on people's dignity (discrimination, racism, and so on) in the analysis
of the processes of interaction in civil society (Uvin 1999: 50-54. See the section "Civil Society and Context," below). The struc- tural
position of individual and collective actors in society is a funda- mental element of relations within civil society. Second, any analysis
of the public sphere should examine how organized actors in society es- tablish alliances with sectors of the state in order to ensure
that their in- terests "emerge on top and that the requirements rooted in these special interests get taken as society's requirements"
(Oilman 1992: 1015). In- deed, certain groups may exert a dominant influence within civil soci- ety (and the public sphere in
particular), which they may utilize to le- gitimize a monopoly of authority in the broader society (Lomax 1997: 61; Sparrow 1992:
1013).
Civil society can’t translate views into policy outcomes
Ariel Armony (assistant professor of government at Colby College) 2004: The Dubious Link: Civic Engagement and
Democratization, pp. 170-1
Figure 4.1 includes all bills rated as “democratic” (N = 95) according to the coding criteria explained above. The figure shows a
pattern of reactive congressional activity to variations in the level of police violence. The number of bills introduced in Congress
followed almost identically the variations in the measure of police violence (with only one major difference in 1995). This pattern
suggests that congressional activity to democratize the police was a response to police violence, especially because an increase in the
level of police violence resonated in the media and thus influenced public opinion. If legislators submitted bills as an immediate
response to peaks of police violence, it follows that most legislative proposals were geared to appease public opinion and probably
resulted from a superficial analysis of the problems of law enforcement and citizen security. Few legislators could attest to having a
consistent and informed approach to police reform and the problem of citizen security. As interviews with congressional aides and
civil society activists revealed, congressional commissions seldom sought the expertise of civil society groups, and there were no
formal channels for introducing input from civil society. Indeed, input from some sectors of civil society was incorporated into the
legislative debate only in se- lected cases that received a high level of media attention. As civic ac- tivists told me, the reactive nature
of congressional activity made it vir- tually impossible for them to establish sustained, effective cooperation with legislators in matters
of police reform. The interest of Congress in the question of police brutality was limited to responses to specific crises—as the data in
Figure 4.1 show.
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AT: CIVILIAN-MILITARY RELATIONS
Policy disagreements don’t undermine overall CMR and don’t spill over
Hansen 9 – Victor Hansen, Associate Professor of Law, New England Law School, Summer 2009, “SYMPOSIUM: LAW, ETHICS,
AND THE WAR ON TERROR: ARTICLE: UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF MILITARY LAWYERS IN THE WAR ON
TERROR: A RESPONSE TO THE PERCEIVED CRISIS IN CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS,” South Texas Law Review, 50 S.
Tex. L. Rev. 617, p. lexis
According to Sulmasy and Yoo, these conflicts between the military and the Bush Administration are the latest examples of a
[*624] crisis in civilian-military relations. n32 The authors suggest the principle of civilian control of the military must be
measured and is potentially violated whenever the military is able to impose its preferred policy outcomes against the wishes of the
civilian leaders. n33 They further assert that it is the attitude of at least some members of the military that civilian leaders are
temporary office holders to be outlasted and outmaneuvered. n34
If the examples cited by the authors do in fact suggest efforts by members of the military to undermine civilian control over the
military, then civilian-military relations may have indeed reached a crisis. Before such a conclusion can be reached, however, a
more careful analysis is warranted. We cannot accept at face value the authors' broad assertions that any time a member of the
military, whether on active duty or retired, disagrees with the views of a civilian member of the Department of Defense or other
member of the executive branch, including the President, that such disagreement or difference of opinion equates to either a
tension or a crisis in civil-military relations. Sulmasy and Yoo claim there is heightened tension or perhaps even a crisis in civilmilitary relations, yet they fail to define what is meant by the principle of civilian control over the military. Instead, the authors
make general and rather vague statements suggesting any policy disagreements between members of the military and officials in
the executive branch must equate to a challenge by the military against civilian control. n35 However, until we have a clear
understanding of the principle of civilian control of the military, we cannot accurately determine whether a crisis in civil-military
relations exists. It is to this question that we now turn.
No risk of a spillover---many checks exist even after explicitly overruling the military
Hooker 4 - Colonel Richard D. Hooker, Jr., Ph.D. from the University of Virginia in international relations and is a member of the
Council on Foreign Relations, served in the Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Winter 2004, “Soldiers of the State:
Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations,” Parameters, p. 4-18
Clearly there have been individual instances where military leaders crossed the line and behaved both unprofessionally and
illegitimately with respect to proper subordination to civilian authority; the Revolt of the Admirals and the MacArthur-Truman
controversy already have been cited. The increasingly common tactic whereby anonymous senior military officials criticize their
civilian counterparts and superiors, even to the point of revealing privileged and even classified information, cannot be justified.
Yet civilian control remains very much alive and well. The many direct and indirect instruments of objective and subjective civilian
control of the military suggest that the true issue is not control—defined as the government’s ability to enforce its authority over the
military—but rather political freedom of action. In virtually every sphere, civilian control over the military apparatus is decisive. All
senior military officers serve at the pleasure of the President and can be removed, and indeed retired, without cause. Congress must
approve all officer promotions and guards this prerogative jealously; even lateral appointments at the three- and four-star levels must
be approved by the President and confirmed by Congress, and no officer at that level may retire in grade without separate approval by
both branches of government. Operating budgets, the structure of military organizations, benefits, pay and allowances, and even the
minutia of official travel and office furniture are determined by civilians. The reality of civilian control is confirmed not only by the
many instances cited earlier where military recommendations were over-ruled. Not infrequently, military chiefs have been removed or
replaced by the direct and indirect exercise of civilian authority.37
No backlash - the military will follow orders even if they disagree with them
Ackerman 8 [Spencer, The Washington Independent, 11/13, “Productive Obama-Military Relationship Possible,”
http://washingtonindependent.com/18335/productive-obama-military-relationship-possible]
Some members of the military community are more sanguine. Several say that if they disagree with the decision, they respect
Obama’s authority to make it.
“In the end, we are not self-employed. And after the military leadership provides its best military advice, it is up to the policymakers to make the decision and for the military to execute those decisions,” said a senior Army officer recently back from Iraq,
who requested anonymity because he is still on active duty. “Now, if those in the military do not like the decision, they have two
choices. One, salute smartly and execute the missions given them to the best of their ability. Or, the other, leave the military if
they do not feel they can faithfully execute their missions. That is one way the military does get to vote in an all-volunteer
force.”
Moss agreed. “The military will just follow the order,” he said. “The great majority of Americans want U.S. forces out of Iraq.
This is part of the reason Obama was sent to the White House.”
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AT: COMPETITIVENESS
1. Your authors failed econ 401 – competitiveness is a flatly wrong theory used solely to get readers
Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994
Competitiveness: A dangerous obsession, Foreign Affairs,Vol. 73, Iss. 2, pg. 28-45, Proquest
On the side of hope, many sensible people have imagined that they can appropriate the rhetoric of competitiveness on behalf of
desirable economic policies. Suppose that you believe that the United States needs to raise its savings rate and improve its educational
system in order to raise its productivity. Even if you know that the benefits of higher productivity have nothing to do with
international competition, why not describe this as a policy to enhance competitiveness if you think that it can widen your audience?
It's tempting to pander to popular prejudices on behalf of a good cause, and I have myself succumbed to that temptation. As for fear, it
takes either a very courageous or very reckless economist to say publicly that a doctrine that many, perhaps most, of the world's
opinion leaders have embraced is flatly wrong. The insult is all the greater when many of those men and women think that by using
the rhetoric of competitiveness they are demonstrating their sophistication about economics. This article may influence people, but it
will not make many friends.
2. US competitiveness is doomed – China is already surpassing our economic leadership
Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. (Research News and Publications. “Study shows China as World Techonology Leader.”
Jan 28. http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?id=1682)
A new study of worldwide technological competitiveness suggests China may soon rival the United States as the principal driver of
the world’s economy – a position the U.S. has held since the end of World War II. If that happens, it will mark the first time in nearly
a century that two nations have competed for leadership as equals. The study’s indicators predict that China will soon pass the United
States in the critical ability to develop basic science and technology, turn those developments into products and services – and then
market them to the world. Though China is often seen as just a low-cost producer of manufactured goods, the new “High Tech
Indicators” study done by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology clearly shows that the Asian powerhouse has much
bigger aspirations. “For the first time in nearly a century, we see leadership in basic research and the economic ability to pursue the
benefits of that research – to create and market products based on research – in more than one place on the planet,” said Nils Newman,
co-author of the National Science Foundation-supported study. “Since World War II, the United States has been the main driver of the
global economy. Now we have a situation in which technology products are going to be appearing in the marketplace that were not
developed or commercialized here. We won’t have had any involvement with them and may not even know they are coming.”
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AT: COMPETITIVENESS KEY TO ECONOMY
Competitiveness has no necessary correlation with economic conditions.
Krugman, 1994. (Paul Krugman, “Competitiveness- A Dangerous Obsession”, Foreign Affairs, March 1994, Volume 73, Number 2,
http://infoshako.sk.tsukuba.ac.jp/~takasaki/Teaching_U/IEU/Krugman(1994).pdf.)
the image of countries competing with each other in world markets in the same way that corporations do -derives much of its attractiveness from its seeming comprehensibility. Tell a group of businessmen that a country is like a corporation writ large, and you give them the comfort
THE COMPETITIVE metaphor --
of feeling that they already understand the basics. Try to tell them about economic concepts like comparative advantage, and you are asking them to learn
The rhetoric of competitiveness has
become so wide-spread, however, for three deeper reasons. First, competitive images are exciting, and thrills sell tickets. The subtitle of Lester Thurow's huge best-seller,
something new. It should not be surprising if many prefer a doctrine that offers the gain of apparent sophistication without the pain of hard thinking.
Head to Head, is "The Coming Economic Battle among Japan, Europe, and America"; the jacket proclaims that "the decisive war of the century has begun . . . and America may already have decided to lose." Suppose that the
subtitle had described the real situation: "The coming struggle in which each big economy will succeed or fail based on its own efforts, pretty much independently of how well the others do." Would Thurow have sold a tenth
the idea that U.S. economic difficulties hinge crucially on our failures in international competition somewhat
paradoxically makes those difficulties seem easier to solve. The
productivity of the average American worker is determined by a complex array of factors, most of them unreachable by any likely government policy. So if you accept the reality that our
"competitive" problem is really a domestic productivity problem pure and simple, you are unlikely
to be optimistic about any dramatic turnaround. But if you can convince yourself that the problem
is really one of failures in international competition that -- imports are pushing workers out of high wage jobs, or subsidized foreign competition is driving the United States out of the high
valued sectors -- then the answers to economic malaise may seem to you to involve simple things
like subsidizing high technology and being tough on Japan. Finally, many of the world's leaders have found
the competitive metaphor extremely useful as a political device. The rhetoric of competitiveness turns out to provide a good way
either to justify hard choices or to avoid them. The example of Delors in Copenhagen shows the usefulness of competitive metaphors as an evasion. Delors had to say something at the Ec
as many books? Second,
summit; yet to say anything that addressed the real roots of European unemployment would have involved huge political risks. By turning the discussion to essentially irrelevant but plausible-sounding questions of
competitiveness, he bought himself some time to come up with a better answer (which to some extent he provided in December's white paper on the European economy -- a paper that still, however, retained
"competitiveness" in its rifle).
the well-received presentation of Bill Clinton's initial economic program in February 1993 showed the usefulness of
competitive rhetoric as a motivation for tough policies. Clinton proposed a set of painful spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the
Federal deficit. Why? The real reasons for cutting the deficit are disappointingly undramatic: the deficit siphons off funds that might
otherwise have been productively invested, and thereby exerts a steady if small drag on U.S. economic growth. But Clinton was able instead to offer a
By contrast,
stirring patriotic appeal, calling on the nation to act now in order to make the economy competitive in the global markets with the implication that dire economic consequences would follow if the United States does not.
Many people who know that "competitiveness" is a largely meaningless concept have been willing to indulge competitive rhetoric
precisely because they believe they can harness it in the service of good policies. An overblown fear of the Soviet Union was used in the 1950s to justify the building of
the interstate highway system and the expansion of math and science education. Cannot the unjustified fears about foreign competition similarly be turned to good, used to justify serious efforts to reduce the budget deficit,
rebuild infrastructure, and so on? A few years ago this was a reasonable hope. At this point, however, the obsession with competitiveness has reached the point where it has already begun dangerously to distort economic
policies.
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AT: COMPETITIVENESS KEY TO HEG
Competitiveness doesn’t translate into power
Niall Ferguson, Hoover senior fellow, is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, 2003
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: What Is Power? Which global players have power today—and which are likely to acquire it in the
coming decades? Hoover Institute Digest, no. 2, http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3058266.html
It’s certainly tempting to assume that power is synonymous with gross domestic product: Big GDP equals big power. Hence many
analysts point to China’s huge economy and rapid growth as evidence that the country will soon gain superpower rank, if it hasn’t
already. Just project forward the average annual growth rates of the past 30 years, and Chinese GDP will equal that of the United
States and exceed that of the EU, within just two decades (see figure 3). Gross Domestic Product in 1998 and Projected GDP in 2018
(millions of constant 1990 international dollars) But GDP doesn’t stand for Great Diplomatic Power. If the institutions aren’t in place
to translate economic output into military hardware—and if the economy grows faster than public interest in foreign affairs—then
product is nothing more than potential power. America overtook Britain in terms of GDP in the 1870s, but it was not until the First
World War that it overtook Britain as a global power.
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AT: CORAL REEFS
1. Coral is dying at a quick pace in the squo
US Dept. of Interrior and National Park Services 6 (“Coral Bleaching and Disease Deliver “One – Two Punch” to Coral Reefs in the US Virgin
Islands” < http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/sfcn/docs/CRTF%20Fact%20Sheet%20w%20Photo%201-1a.pdf> October accessed 6/29/09) SC
Monitoring programs that were in place before the bleaching began allowed NPS and USGS to quantify the effects of bleaching and
disease. The NPS/ South Florida-Caribbean Inventory and Monitoring Network Program (SFCN) has permanent, randomly selected transects (=120) at 6 sites (up to 15 m deep) in St. John
and St. Croix, including Virgin Islands NP and Buck Island Reef NM. An average of 90% of coral cover bleached at these sites in September and October 2005. Many
corals began to recover their normal coloration but then suffered a “one-two punch” from disease (primarily white plague). Historically, sites were
monitored annually using digital video, but frequency of monitoring increased to every 2-6 months to document the effects of the bleaching and disease event. Although bleaching was
Coral cover
has declined 48.7% at the long-term study sites as of July 2006. Two New Approaches to Evaluate Change In addition to the analysis of the digital videotapes for
associated with record -warm seawater temperatures, some corals remain discolored and mortality from disease has continued despite cooler seawater temperatures in 2006.
changes in percent coral cover over time, two other approaches are being used to examine the responses of corals to this event. First, the amount of disease affecting the coral reefs is being
Within
our study sites, mortality from disease ranged from 4 to 80-times more extensive following bleaching than before bleaching began. Second, videotapes from
estimated on each sampling date by measurement of lesions (areas that have recently been killed by disease) on coral colonies one meter on either side of the permanent transects.
successive time periods at each long-term site are being compared side-by-side to follow the condition and fate of 4153 selected coral colonies.
2. Coral Reefs have been dying in drastic numbers since the 70’s due to disease and coral bleaching
Telegraph 9 (“Coral Reefs collapse amid Global Warming” < http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/5487425/Coral-reefs-collapse-amidglobal-warming.html> June 10 accessed 6/29/09) SC
Scientists spotted the trend after analysing 500 surveys of 200 reefs conducted between 1969 and 2008. They found 75 per
cent of the reefs were now largely "flat" compared with 20 per cent in the 1970s. Today, most of the reefs across the
Caribbean are significantly flatter and more uniform than they used to be, the researchers reported in the journal Proceedings
of the Royal Society B. The most complex reefs are virtually wiped out, said the scientists. Disease and warming sea
temperatures both have the effect of levelling and flattening coral reefs. In the late 1970s reefs were flattened when large
amounts of Caribbean coral were killed off by widespread disease. More recently intense and frequent coral bleaching
events, a direct result of rising sea surface temperatures due to global warming, have caused much more reef flattening, say
the researchers. Study leader Dr Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, from the University of East Anglia's School of Biological Science, said: "For many organisms, the
complex structure of reefs provides refuge from predators. This drastic loss of architectural complexity is clearly driving substantial declines in biodiversity, which
will in turn affect coastal fishing communities. "The loss of structure also vastly reduces the Caribbean's natural coastal defences, significantly increasing the risk
of coastal erosion and flooding." Reversing damage to coral reefs poses a major challenge for scientists and policy-makers alike, said the researchers.
3. Sharks, not Coral, are key to biodiversity and current overfishing has collapsed current coral level
Physorg 5 (“Research Shows Overfishing of Sharks Key Factor in Coral Reef Decline” http://www.physorg.com/news3688.html
April 15 accessed 6/29/09) SC
Jordi Bascompte and Carlos Melián of the Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de
Investigaciones Científicas, in Sevilla, Spain, and Enric Sala of Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of
California, San Diego, developed an unprecedented model of a Caribbean marine ecosystem and details of its intricate predatorprey interactions. This food “web” covered 1,000 square kilometers to a depth of 100 meters and included some 250 species of
marine organisms. The study, published in the April 12 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, included
an intricate network of more than 3,000 links between these species. The project was one of the largest and most detailed
investigations of marine food webs and the first study to integrate food web structure, dynamics and conservation. One of the most
striking products of the study is a stark picture of human impacts on marine ecosystems and the consequences of targeted fishing.
In the Caribbean, overfishing of sharks triggers a domino effect of changes in abundance that carries down to several fish species
and contributes to the overall degradation of the reef ecosystem. Overfishing species randomly, the study shows, is not likely to
cause these cascading effects. “It appears that ecosystems such as Caribbean coral reefs need sharks to ensure the stability of the
entire system,” said Sala, deputy director of the Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation at Scripps. When sharks are
overfished, a cascade of effects can lead to a depletion of important grazers of plant life. This is because there are fewer sharks to
feed on carnivorous fish such as grouper—causing an increase in their numbers and their ability to prey on parrotfishes. The
removal of plant-eating animals such as parrotfishes has been partly responsible for the shift of Caribbean reefs from coral to algae
dominated, the authors note. Thus overfishing of sharks may contribute further to the loss of resistance of coral reefs to multiple
human disturbances. “The community-wide impacts of fishing are stronger than expected because fishing preferentially targets
species whose removal can destabilize the food web,” the authors conclude in their report. Because of their comprehensive
approach in developing the intricate food web, the authors say their study and its results address more than individual species
protection and speak to larger ecosystem protection issues. “The paper presents a community-wide approximation of conservation
problems,” said Bascompte. “We cannot asses all of the implications of overfishing by only looking at the target species or a few
others. Species are embedded in a complex network of relationships and this network has a particular shape. This has large
implications for the propagation of the consequences of overfishing through the whole food web.”
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EXT #1 – NON UNIQUE
Coral dying now due to a lack of herbivorous fish this non-uniques and functions as an alternative
causality
Toon 8 (John, Manager of Georgia Tech Research and Publications “Diversity of plant-eating fishes may be key to recovery of coral
reefs” <http://www.bio-medicine.org/biology-news-1/Diversity-of-plant-eating-fishes-may-be-key-to-recovery-of-coral-reefs-52784/> October 8 accessed 6/29/09) SC
For endangered coral reefs, not all plant-eating fish are created equal. A report scheduled to be published this week in the early edition
of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests that maintaining the proper balance of herbivorous fishes
may be critical to restoring coral reefs, which are declining dramatically worldwide. The conclusion results from a long-term study
that found significant recovery in sections of coral reefs on which fish of two complementary species were caged. Coral reefs depend
on fish to eat the seaweeds with which the corals compete, and without such cleaning, the reefs decline as corals are replaced by
seaweeds. Different fish consume different seaweeds because of the differing chemical and physical properties of the plants. "Of the
many different fish that are part of coral ecosystems, there may be a small number of species that are really critical for keeping big
seaweeds from over-growing and killing corals," explained Mark Hay, the Harry and Linda Teasley Professor of Biology at the
Georgia Institute of Technology. "Our study shows that in addition to having enough herbivores, coral ecosystems also need the right
mix of species to overcome the different defensive tactics of the seaweeds." By knowing which fish are most critical to maintaining
coral health, resource managers could focus on protecting and enhancing the highest-impact species. In situations where local peoples
depend on fishing, they might better sustain the reefs on which they depend by harvesting only less critical species. "This could offer
one more approach to resource managers," Hay added. "If ecosystems were managed for critical mixes of herbivorous species, we
might see more rapid recovery of the reefs."
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EXT #2 – ALT CAUSE
Coral Reefs are being damaged in the squo- 4 reasons
Science Daily 5 (“Coral Reefs Declining—Not Just Overfishing” <
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050830072609.htm> August 31 accessed 6/29/09) SC
Coral reefs, the rainforests of the sea, feed a large portion of the world's population, protect tropical shorelines from erosion, and
harbor animals and plants with great potential to provide new therapeutic drugs. Unfortunately, reefs are now beset by problems
ranging from local pollution and overfishing to outbreaks of coral disease and global warming. Although most scientists agree
that reefs are in desperate trouble, they disagree strongly over the timing and causes of the coral reef crisis. This is not just an
academic exercise, because different answers dictate different strategies for managers and policymakers intent on saving reef
ecosystems. The cover story published this month in Geology helps focus the debate. A team led by Richard Aronson of the Dauphin
Island Sea Lab in Alabama took cores through reef frameworks in Belize to reconstruct the history of the reefs over the past several
thousand years. Although some scientists have suggested that reefs began their decline centuries ago due to early overfishing,
Aronson's team found that coral populations were healthy and vibrant until the 1980s, when they were killed by disease and high sea
temperatures. The research effort was supported by the National Geographic Society, the Smithsonian Institution and the National
Science Foundation. As Aronson points out, "Protecting fish populations is important in its own right, but it won't save the corals.
Corals are being killed at an unprecedented rate by forces outside local control. Saving coral reefs means addressing global
environmental issues--climate change in particular--at the highest levels of government."
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AT: CULTURAL DIVERSITY
1. Warming makes their impacts inevitable
The Guardian ‘3 (Duncan Campbell, “Global warming may turn deadly route through ice into plain sailing: The perilous dream of a
North-west Passage is likely to become a commercial and problematic reality”, 1-20, L/N)
"It's something no one would have dreamed up for our lifetime," said Lawson Brigham, deputy director of the US Arctic Research
Commission and former captain of the US coastguard icebreaker Polar Sea, which made the passage in 1994. Green lobbyists point to
a threat to indigenous peoples. "Climate change upsets the dynamics of marine and coastal ecosystems and native cultures that depend
on them," Greenpeace said in a 1998 report, Answers from the Ice Edge. "The consequences of global warming are affecting the
subsistence way of life of Alaska's Native people now . . . Climate-caused changes in subsistence ways of life may be the greatest
threat to the continued existence of indigenous cultures."
2. No impact – its just evolution
Lynn 74 (Richard, Prof. Emeritus of Psych @ U. Ulster, Irish Journal of Psychology, “A Review of "A New Morality from Science:
Beyondism"”, 2:3, Winter, http://www.prometheism.net/articles/review.html)
Now evolution takes place where there is a variety of different types who compete against one another, and in this competition the
fittest survive and the unfit become extinct. This, therefore, should be the first principle in the design of human society. The
requirement of diverse competing types applies both to societies and to individuals. Among societies the unit should be the nation and
there should be the widest variety of different cultures. Some will be capitalist, some socialist, and some mixed economies. Some will
be democracies, others oligarchies, and yet other dictatorships. They will have different religions, or none; and they will have different
kinds and distributions of intelligence and personality qualities. The nations will compete, and in the competitive struggle the fittest
will survive. If the evolutionary process is to bring its benefits, it has to be allowed to operate effectively. This means that
incompetent societies have to be allowed to go to the wall. This is something we in advanced societies do not at present face up to and
the reason for this, according to Cattell, is that we have become too soft-hearted. For instance, the foreign aid which we give to the
under-developed world is a mistake, akin to keeping going incompetent species like the dinosaurs which are not fit for the competitive
struggle for existence. What is called for here is not genocide, the killing off of the populations of incompetent cultures. But we do
need to think realistically in terms of "phasing out" of such peoples. If the world is to evolve more better humans, then obviously
someone has to make way for them otherwise we shall all be overcrowded. After all, ninety-eight per cent of the of the species known
to zoologists are extinct. Evolutionary progress means the extinction of the less competent. To think otherwise is mere sentimentality.
As a general rule it would be best for national cultures to keep themselves to themselves and not to admit immigrants. There are
several reasons for this. Isolation would give rise to societies with greater diversity and individuality, both culturally and genetically.
Indeed, it would be desirable if the human race could evolve several different non-interbreeding species, since this would increase the
options for evolution to work on. Another reason for discouraging migration is that migrants are often people of low genetic quality
who reduce the efficiency of the population they join. The first principle for evolutionary progress is therefore competition between
diverse cultures, but we have to think also of the principles conducive to the efficiency of individual nations especially that of our own
if we wish to be among the survivors.
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AT: CUSTOMARY INTERNATIONAL LAW
1. ILaw won’t be enforced – even the UN is weak on the issue
Eviatar, staff writer, 1/23/09 (Daphne, “The Pitfalls of International Law,” Washington Independent, http://washingtonindependent.com/26663/the-pitfalls-of-international-law)
There’s no question that international law is supposed to govern the Israel-Hamas conflict; but the persistent recriminations raise an
important question: Does it matter? So what if Israel and Hamas are violating international humanitarian law, or even intentionally committing war crimes? Who’s going to
stop them? It’s an age-old problem of international law; while the laws have been carefully negotiated and in some cases, interpreted over centuries, they’re
notoriously difficult to enforce. And because they rely heavily on international pressure, advocates say the United States’ own
refusal to apply international humanitarian laws such as the Geneva Conventions to its own conflicts with al Qaeda and the Taliban
has undermined the influence of these laws on conflicts around the world. “In general when you’re talking about international law
enforcement, measures are weak and uneven,” said Jessica Montel, Executive Director of B’Tselem, a human rights group in Israel that monitors the occupied
territories. “You don’t have an international court and police force and prosecutor’s office to investigate and arrest and try people the
way a domestic court would function.” As a result, perpetrators can often dismiss accusations of legal violations as biased and
vindictive. The UN Human Rights Council, for example, is dominated by Muslim nations and their allies, and has managed to shield such countries as Iran and Zimbabwe from official investigations and
condemnation, while issuing more than 15 different resolutions criticizing Israel in less than two years. Even toward Sudan, widely believed to have supported genocide, it has expressed only “deep concern.” So when
the Council issued its condemnation last week, Israel was able to easily dismiss it as one-sided and reflecting the “fairytale world” of the 47-member Council.
2. Other countries solve the impact—US not key
Benvenisti 8 –Professor of Law, Tel Aviv University (Eval, “Reclaiming Democracy: The Strategic Uses Of Foreign And
International Law By National Courts,” 102 A.J.I.L. 241, http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1061&context=taulwps)
It wasn’t so long ago that the overwhelming majority of courts in democratic countries shared a reluctance to refer to foreign and international law. These courts conformed to a policy of
avoiding any application of foreign sources of law that would clash with the position of their domestic governments. For many jurists, recourse to foreign and international law is
inappropriate.1 But even the supporters of the reference to external sources of law share the thus-unexplored assumption that reliance on foreign and international law is inevitably in tension
with the value of national sovereignty. Hence the scholarly debate is framed along the lines of the well-known broader debate on “the counter-majoritarian difficulty.”2 This Article questions
for courts in most democratic countries – even if not for U.S. courts at present – referring to foreign and
international law has become an effective instrument for empowering the domestic democratic processes by shielding them from
external economic, political and even legal pressures. Citing international law, therefore, actually bolsters domestic democratic processes and reclaims national
sovereignty from the diverse forces of globalization. Stated differently, most national courts, seeking to maintain the vitality of their national political institutions and to safeguard their
own domestic status vis-à-vis the political branches, cannot afford to ignore foreign and international law. In recent years, courts in several democracies
have begun to engage quite seriously in the interpretation and application of international law and to heed the constitutional
jurisprudence of other national courts.
this assumption of tension. It argues that
3. ILaw cannot produce change – status quo legal standards solve
Estreicher, professor of law @ NYU, 3 (Samuel, professor of law @ NYU, Virginia Journal of International Law Association, Fall, Lexis)
As for the subsidiary law that an increasingly interdependent world needs in advance of treaties, traditional CIL could not easily play this
role as it was essentially backwards looking. The new, instantaneous customary law tries to play this role, but in a way that hardly
comports with legitimacy. Without relying on CIL, states, intemational organizations, and other actors have ample means of
identifying problems requiring interstate cooperation, drafting instruments that might command state support, and marshaling the
forces of moral suasion. It is hard to see that the “law" aspiration of CIL offers the prospect of a signiticant incremental gain. ln any
event, the ultimate question is whether any such benefit warrants the accompanying costs—to which I now turn.
4. Ilaw good impacts aren’t responsive—domestic law is comparatively superior
McGinnis and Somin 7 – *Professor of Law at Northwestern and former deputy assistant attorney general in the Office of Legal Counsel at the Department of Justice and
**Assistant Professor of Law at George Mason University (John O. and Ilya, Stanford Law Review, “Should International Law be Part of Our Law?” 59 Stan. L. Rev. 1175, Lexis)
If we are right to argue that raw international has a relative democracy deficit compared to U.S. domestic law, this conclusion undermines claims that the United States
should simply evaluate international law norms on a case-by-case basis, following only those that have beneficial consequences. The key question is: who does the
evaluating? If it is the ordinary domestic lawmaking process, then this approach is fully in accord with our position: that the United States should only allow
international law to override domestic law if the former has been ratified by the domestic political process. If, on the other hand, the mere existence of a norm of raw
international law is taken as justification for the claim that it is likely to have beneficial consequences, then the democracy deficit provides good reason to reject this
conclusion. To the extent that international law suffers from a comparative democracy deficit, allowing it to override domestic law will,
on average, result in beneficial norms being replaced by relatively more harmful ones. n104 This point holds true even if most rules of
raw international law actually produce beneficial results. For example, let us assume that raw international law promotes "good"
results 70% of the time, but because of its relatively smaller democracy deficit, domestic law does so 75% of the time. Even in this
stylized situation, domestic law is likely to produce better results than raw international law when the two conflict. Assuming that there are
only two alternative legal rules, one "good" and the other "bad," in this scenario domestic law is likely to pick the good option and international law the bad one in
about 56% of the cases where the two diverge. n105 It is important to remember that our argument is comparative. International norms are less likely to
be of sound quality than those created by an established democracy such as the United States. This will be true both in cases where
U.S. [*1199] law and international law directly conflict and in those situations where international law seeks to regulate an issue that
American law has left to executive discretion or to the private sector. A domestic decision to leave an issue to official discretion or to private
initiative is just as likely to be superior to a competing international law norm as a domestic decision to impose a legal rule by statute.
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EXT #1 – ILAW FAILS
International law is too weak to prevent conflict
AEI 5 (American enterprise inst, april, book review, inst for public policy research, “The Limits of International Law” Jack L. Goldsmith and Eric A. Posner,
<http://www.angelfire.com/jazz/sugimoto/law.pdf>) "As the twentieth century ended, optimism about international law...degradation and human rights abuses"
As the twentieth century ended, optimism about international law was as high as it had ever been—as high as it was at the end of
World War I and World War II, for example. We can conveniently use 9/11 as the date on which this optimism ended, but there
were undercurrents of pessimism even earlier. The UN played a relatively minor role in bringing the conflicts in the Balkans to the
end. Members of the Security Council could not agree on the use of force in Kosovo, and the NATO intervention was thus a
violation of international law. The various international criminal tribunals turned out to be cumbersome and expensive institutions,
they brought relatively few people to justice, and they stirred up the ethnic tensions they were meant to quell. Aggressive
international trade integration produced a violent backlash in many countries. Treaty mechanisms seemed too weak to solve the
most serious global problems, including environmental degradation and human rights abuses.
Ilaw fails - International Criminal Court proves
Schaefer and Groves 10 [Brett D. Schaefer is Jay Kingham Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs at the Heritage foundation
andSteven Groves is Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. 5/28/10. "The ICC Review Conference: A
Threat to U.S. Interests" http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/05/The-ICC-Review-Conference-A-Threat-to-US-Interests]
Performance. Although the court’s proponents claim that the ICC has achieved significant success in its first eight years, scant evidence
supports this claim. An honest stocktaking would conclude that the ICC as an institution has performed little, if any, better than the ad hoc tribunals that
it was created to replace. Like the Rwandan and Yugoslavian tribunals, the ICC is slow to act. The ICC prosecutor took six months to open an
investigation in Uganda (referred to the ICC by the Ugandan government in 2004), two months in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (referred by the
Congolese government in 2004), over a year in Darfur (referred by the Security Council in 2005), and nearly two years in the Central African Republic
(referred by the national government in 2005). The ICC prosecutor began a preliminary examination in early 2008 of alleged crimes committed in Kenya. The
prosecutor opened an official investigation in March 2010. The ICC has issued 14 warrants related to these cases, but it has yet to conclude a full
trial cycle nearly eight years after being created . This is notable because one argument for establishing the ICC was that it would be faster
and more effective than ad hoc tribunals, such as the tribunals for Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Deterrence. Moreover, like the ad hoc tribunals, the ICC can
investigate and prosecute crimes only after the fact. The alleged deterrent effect of a standing international criminal court has not ended atrocities
in the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Darfur, where cases are ongoing . Fear of ICC prosecution has not deterred despotic
regimes from committing crimes against their own peoples. The ICC did not deter Russia from its 2008 invasion of Georgia, an ICC
party. Nor has ICC party Venezuela stopped supporting leftist guerillas in Colombia. Peace and Justice. The ICC’s contributions to peace and justice
are also very much in question. ICC decisions to pursue investigations and indictments can, and arguably already have, upset delicate
diplomatic situations. For instance, the ICC decision to indict and issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir[12] for his
involvement in crimes committed in Darfur arguably has only further entrenched his determination to punish those opposed to his regime in
Darfur on the basis that he has little to lose. The desire to see Bashir face justice for his complicity in the crimes committed in Darfur is understandable and
should not be abandoned. However, the ICC’s efforts to bring Bashir to justice prior to resolving the ongoing conflict may be counterproductive, ultimately
leading to more suffering. Enforcement. A related issue is the ICC’s inability to enforce its own rulings . It entirely depends on the cooperation of
governments to arrest and transfer perpetrators to the court. This flaw was also present with the ICTY and the ICTR, although they could at least rely on a Security
Council resolution mandating international cooperation in enforcing their arrest warrants. In contrast, the Nuremburg and Tokyo tribunals could rely on Allied
occupation forces to search out, arrest, and detain the accused. This “jurisdiction without enforcement” flaw lies at the heart of the Rome Statute and cannot be cured by
an amendment. No change to the Rome Statute would give the ICC enforcement power, which requires the ability and willingness to use force. Even if the court
could be invested with such power—a dubious prospect—governments would likely wisely refuse to give a largely unaccountable
judicial body the power and resources to enforce its decisions.
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EXT #4 – DOMESTIC LAW BETTER
US law is a better model—key to peace
McGinnis 6 – Professor of Law at Northwestern and former deputy assistant attorney general in the Office of Legal Counsel at the
Department of Justice (John O., Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy, “The Comparative Disadvantage of Customary International
Law”)
Even in activities where there are spillovers, such as law on the use of force, American law is probably better than international law.
The United States is the world’s great power, some‐ times called the global hegemon in international relations theory.26 It stands to
gain the lion’s share of resources from the peace and prosperity of the world. Its political process has incentives to provide laws that
contribute to peace and prosperity, such as appropriate use of force. Moreover, as a hegemon composed of immigrants who remain
concerned about the welfare of their former nations, America affords citizens from all over the world some virtual representation in its
political process. These guarantees of beneficence for foreigners are surely imperfect, but they seem better than those provided by
customary international law. Thus, by insisting that United States courts follow American law and not raw international law,
Americans serve both themselves and others around the globe. America helps the world most by remaining true to her own democratic
genius.
World No Go Boom???
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AT: CYBER TERRORISM
1. Countries are boosting cooperation and establishing an international center to solve cyber terrorism
IHT, 8 (Associated Press, International Herald Tribune, “Countries worldwide need closer cooperation to curb cyber terrorism threat,
officials say,” 5-20-2008, http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=13040821)
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: The world's countries must cooperate more to fight the threat of cyberterrorism attacks, which could
threaten facilities such as nuclear power plants, officials said Tuesday at an international conference. Government authorities and
technology experts from more than 30 nations made the call at the opening of the meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Information
technology has "changed the dynamics of terrorism," said Hamadoun Toure, secretary general of the International Telecommunication
Union, the U.N.'s leading information technology agency. "The harsh reality is that (information technology) has become a tool for
cybercrime and cyberterrorism," Toure said in a speech. "Cybersecurity must become a cornerstone of every aspect of keeping
ourselves, our countries and our world safe." Delegates came from countries including Australia, Canada, France, India, Japan,
Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Thailand and the United States. Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said
cyberattacks could trigger "truly catastrophic consequences" by disrupting systems that control telecommunications networks,
emergency services, nuclear power plants or major dams. "Cyberthreats are not something that modern societies and their
governments can ignore," the prime minister said. "It is necessary for governments and countries throughout the world to work in
concert." Malaysia will be home to a new center to be run by the International Multilateral Partnership Against Cyber Terrorism, a
project involving both the public and private sectors. The center is expected to open by the end of year and will serve as emergency
response, training and resource center to counter cyberthreats. "The bottom line is the threat is real," said Howard Schmidt, a former
U.S. adviser to the White House on cybersecurity. "It'll be from criminals, it'll be from state-sponsored activity, it'll be from organized
crime, so the idea of this is to reduce the vulnerability" of countries.
2. No risk of a serious cyber attack – groups lack capabilities
Fisher 2009 – editor of threatpost.com [Dennis, 10/23. “Report: Cyber-Terror Not A Credible Threat.” ThreatPOST:
http://threatpost.com/en_us/blogs/cyberte rror-not-credible-threat-102309]
A new report by a Washington policy think tank dismisses out of hand the idea that terrorist groups are currently launching cyber
attacks and says that the recent attacks against U.S. and South Korean networks were not damaging enough to be considered serious
incidents. The report, written by James Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, looks at cyber-war through the
prism of the Korean attacks, which many commentators have speculated originated in North Korea. However, there has been little in
the way of proof offered for this assessment, and Lewis doesn't go down that road. Instead, he focuses on whether the attacks
constituted an act of war and whether they could have been the work of a terrorist group. "The July event was not a serious attack. It
was more like a noisy demonstration. The attackers used basic technologies and did no real damage. To date, we have not seen a
serious cyber attack. That is only because the political circumstances that would justify such attacks by other militaries have not yet
occurred and because most non-state actors have not yet acquired the necessary capabilities. As an aside, this last point undermines the
notion of cyber terrorism. The alternative to the conclusion that terrorist groups currently lack the capabilities to launch a cyber attack
is that they have these capabilities but have chosen not to use them. This alternative is nonsensical," Lewis writes.
3. Hackers are inevitable – deal with it
Steven P. Bucci– P.h.d IBM's Issue Lead for Cyber Security Programs, 6/12/09 “The Confluence of Cyber Crime and
Terrorism” http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1123.cfm
Terrorists will recognize the opportunity the cyber world offers sooner or later. They will also recognize that they need help to
properly exploit it. It is unlikely they will have the patience to develop their own completely independent capabilities. At the same
time, the highly developed, highly capable cyber criminal networks want money and care little about the source. This is a
marriage made in Hell. The threat of a full nation-state attack, either cyber or cyber-enabled kinetic, is our most dangerous threat.
We pray deterrence will continue to hold, and we should take all measures to shore up that deterrence. Terrorists will never be
deterred in this way. They will continue to seek ways to successfully harm us, and they will join hands with criminal elements to
do so. A terrorist attack enabled by cyber crime capabilities will now be an eighth group of cyber threats, and it will be the most
likely major event we will need to confront. Some would say that cyber crime is a purely law enforcement issue, with no national
security component. That is a dubious "truth" today. This is not a static situation, and it will definitely be more dangerously false in
the future. Unless we get cyber crime under control, it will mutate into a very real, very dangerous national security issue with
potentially catastrophic ramifications. It would be far better to address it now rather than in the midst of a terrorist incident or
campaign of incidents against one of our countries. Terrorism enabled by cyber criminals is our most likely major cyber threat. It
must be met with all our assets.
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AT: DEFICIT
1. No impact to deficits. History proves.
Nugent ‘3 (Tom, Exec. VP & CIO – PlanMember Advisors, National Review, “The Great Budget-Deficit Myth”, 2-12,
http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_nugent/nugent021203.asp)
Our recent history of large budget deficits and strong economic growth contradict these Democratic claims. [See chart.] All during the
Reagan era of budget deficits, the economy grew at an above-average rate. The late '90s surge in the budget did little to augment
economic activity. As a matter of fact, the record budget surplus may have contributed to the economic decline of the early 21st
century. So there is little substance to Democratic claims that budget deficits are evil. One argument against President Bush’s proposed stimulus
package is that large budget deficits drive interest rates higher. (Investors could benefit from a little boost in interest rates from record-low levels — if such a
relationship held.) If the enemies of increased spending and lower taxes could establish this relationship, they could argue that higher interest rates would stymie
economic activity and make the likelihood of meaningful fiscal stimulus problematic. Recent economic studies have attempted to prove that such a relationship exists,
although these studies appear to avoid analyzing all of the economic variables. In the real world, these “other” economic variables must be taken into
account before the conclusions of such studies can justify forecasting any relationship between budget deficits and interest rates. Before
economists and politicians go off on a rant about how increased deficits will raise U.S. interest rates, they should take a serious look at the Japanese experience over the
last 10 years. [See chart.] In 1993, yields on ten-year Japanese government bonds were a little over 3% and the budget deficit as a percent of GDP was approximately
4.5%. All through the '90s, budget deficits as a percent of GDP rose and reached a peak in 2002 of over 8% of GDP. Interest rates, meanwhile, continued to decline. In
comparison, the estimated $200 billion U.S. deficit for 2003 amounts to about 2% of GDP. Don’t even think about comparing short-term interest
rates and the budget deficit in Japan — short rates are well below 1%. Some economists will dismiss the lack of any correlation between large budget deficits and longterm interest rates because the Japanese economy works differently than the U.S. economy. In other words, there are reasons for the dichotomy between budget deficits
and interest rates in Japan. However this dichotomy is at the very heart of understanding why, only in isolation, there can be a relationship between budget deficits and
interest rates. For example, in the real world, deficit spending triggers economic growth as government expenditures impact the private
economy and contribute to an increase in private saving. This increase in private saving benefits fixed income markets, i.e. increases the demand for
government bonds. This demand will offset the increased supply of government bonds that will be issued to finance a rising budget deficit. Therefore, interest rates
remain stable. During the 1980s, record budget deficits were accompanied by dramatic declines in interest rates as the U.S. economy
grew out of an early-decade recession. [See chart.] From 1980 through the mid '90s the U.S. accumulated an enormous amount of government debt. However,
during this same period, long-term interest rates declined by over 50%. Whether the budget was in deficit or surplus over the past twenty years, long-term interest rates
were in a downtrend. [Click on chart link above.] One must also remember that the central bank in Japan and the Federal Reserve in the U.S. have something to say
about interest-rate levels. Since the Fed controls short-term interest rates, they also influence long-term interest rates. If the Fed so desired, they could maintain interest
rates at low levels no matter what happened to the federal deficit. In Japan, where short-term interest rates are near zero, it appears that the Japanese central bank is
keeping rates low. Record budget deficits are having no impact on interest rates. The U.S. and Japanese experience clearly point out the importance of
doing your economic homework in the real world, not in the laboratory, before making projections regarding interest rates and budget deficits. We must not lose sight
of the fact that stimulative fiscal policy is the critical economic variable in getting the U.S. economy back on a growth path. If wayward economists and biased
politicians are successful in convincing the public that budget deficits are bad because they will increase interest rates, then our economy will suffer the consequences.
2. Alt Causes:
a. Social security and Medicare.
CNN ‘8 (“SHOW: ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES 10:00 PM EST”, 2-21, L/N)
SANCHEZ: Oh, I can go on and on about that.Well, But, no, with respect to how -- I do think it gets lost. I thought Barack Obama did a good job talking about
garnishing wages. Those are the types of things that people all of a sudden pay attention to. And when she talked about, you know, you wouldn't have Social
Security or Medicare unless you forced it on people, those are the two largest entitlements our federal government has and the biggest
part of budget deficits and difficulties that we have today, and it -- not to mention the insolvency of them, looking forward. So, I don't think those are two good
examples to give.
b. Bush tax cuts.
Martire, 6 – 30 (Ralph, Ex. Dir. – Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, State Journal-Register, “Deficit Hawks Wrong to nix Jobless Benefits Extension”, 2010, L/N)
Oh, and according to Citizens for Tax Justice, 70 percent of Bush's tax break - or just over $200 billion in fiscal 2010 - goes to the wealthiest 20 percent of Americans.
Certainly, helping everyday folks who've lost jobs put food on the table and sleep indoors is worth one-fifth of the welfare given to the wealthiest by Bush's tax cuts.
Moreover, the $40 billion for extending UI is a one-time, short-term cost, while the Bush tax cuts are long-term, recurring costs that
drill holes in the budget every single year, are the greatest single cause of the long-term deficit and account for more of the problem
than the recession and Barack Obama's stimulus programs combined.
c. Deficit interest and bailout.
CNC ‘8 (Computers, Networks & Communications, “FEDUPUSA; FedUpUSA States That $700 Billion Bailout Threatens U.S. Democracy, Sovereignty”, 10-9, L/N)
Currently, interest on the national debt is the second largest expenditure besides military (this excludes Social Security and Medicare
which are included in the Unitary Budget, but funded separately). The $700 billion bailout, which could potentially end up costing
much more, will add even more debt interest. Debt interest has the potential of becoming the largest budget item, dwarfing the entire
budget. This in turn could lead to capital flight from the United States and a devaluation of the U.S. dollar, already significantly
depreciated under Secretary Paulson, among other things.
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AT: DEFORESTATION
1. Google Earth solves deforestation – google gives indigenous tribes computers to let them see and stop it – Brazil proves
CLAIRE MORGENSTERN (staff writer) 2008: Brazilian Tribe Uses Google Earth To Combat Deforestation
What happens when an indigenous tribe fearing deforestation comes into contact with modern mapping technology? Ask Almir Suruí,
chief of the Paiter Suruí tribe that lives on the Sete de Setembro Reserve in western Brazil. The Paiter Suruí, along with dozens of
other tribes around the world, use Google Earth technology to monitor their vast reserves in an effort to catch loggers and other groups
that threaten the conservation of their lands for future generations.
The Sete de Setembro Reserve consists of 612,000 acres in the western Brazilian state of Rondônia. Today, the land is almost
completely surrounded by loggers, miners, and ranchers, all of which pose a threat to the longevity of the reserve. The only way Almir
and his tribe could learn of the deforestation was to walk for days until they reached territory that had been encroached upon. And, due
to such a large landscape, keep tabs on what was happening in every corner of the reserve all the time – or even conduct semi-frequent
monitoring, for that matter – was a difficult task. In 2006, the Paiter Suruí partnered with the Amazon Conservation Team (ACT), an
NGO that works with local tribes in Brazil, Suriname, and Colombia. By 2008, ACT and the Suruí had drafted a 50 year
environmental management plan, coming up with a protocol to help the Suruí better prepare for increased interaction with the
agribusiness industry and the effects of the globalized economy. However, it was a glimpse that Almir Suruí caught of his home-all
612,000 acres of it – using Google Earth at an internet café – that radically altered the course and capabilities of the tribe’s
conservation management plan. Looking at the satellite image, Almir noticed pockets of deforestation that he didn’t know were there.
With the use of Google Earth, the Suruí could do in mere seconds what use to take days of walking to accomplish. Moreover, they
would have visual proof that deforestation was taking place, which would put them in a better position to preserve or reclaim land that
is rightfully theirs. Almir and representatives of ACT met with Google Earth’s philanthropic branch, Google Earth Outreach, at
Google’s offices in San Francisco. Google donated computers, smart phones, and GPS devices to the tribe so they could monitor their
territorial borders for deforestation and encroachment, but also so they could share information about their culture and daily rituals
with the online world – a big jump for a tribe that made their first contact with the modern world just 40 years ago. Back in Brazil,
ACT helped the Suruí establish a training center with additional computers and networking tools to teach members of the tribe how to
operate and maximize the effectiveness of the donated devices. Now, the Suruí have a sustainable method – not to mention some
cutting-edge technology – of minimizing deforestation using the talents and skills of the local community.
2. Too many alt causes to solve all of them – a highly focused approach can only fail
World Rainforest Movement 98: What are underlying causes of deforestation? http://www.wrm.org.uy/deforestation/indirect.html
During the last few decades, the forest crisis has prompted many international, regional and national preservation initiatives, yet many
have had little success. There is general agreement that this is due to the fact that these strategies were too focused on the immediate
causes of deforestation, and neglected the underlying causes which are multiple and interrelated. In some cases they are related to
major international economic phenomena, such as macro-economic strategies which provide a strong incentive for short-term profitmaking instead of long-term sustain ability. Also important are deep-rooted social structures, which result in inequalities in land
tenure, discrimination against indigenous peoples, subsistence farmers and poor people in general. In other cases they include political
factors such as the lack of participatory democracy, the influence of the military and the exploitation of rural areas by urban elites.
Overconsumption by consumers in high-income countries constitutes another of the major underlying causes of deforestation, while in
some regions uncontrolled industrialization is at the heart of forest degradation with widespread pollution resulting in acid rain.
3. New zero deforestation policy solves
American Quarterly 10/29/2009: Zero-Deforestation Goal Sought in World Forestry Congress Talks in Buenos Aires.
http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/1018/
Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are working toward a proposal that, by 2020, would completely eliminate deforestation of the Atlantic
forest basin. After centuries of agricultural development 93 percent of the forest, which originally covered over 193,000 square miles,
has been destroyed. The negotiations follow comments earlier this month from Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado, Brazil’s lead
climate negotiator, that his country intends to dramatically reduce deforestation in the Amazon rain forest within the same timeframe.
Discussions in Latin America on climate change have blossomed in recent months, in preparation for December’s UN climate change
conference in Copenhagen. Rodney Taylor of the World Wildlife Federation has said that a “zero deforestation” goal would require
the establishment of strict limits on logging in protected areas, government support for environmentally responsible companies and
efforts to educate communities throughout the region.
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EXT #2 – ALT CAUSE
Alt cause – agriculture
World Rainforest Movement 98: What are underlying causes of deforestation? http://www.wrm.org.uy/deforestation/indirect.html
The most important direct causes of deforestation include logging, the conversion of forested lands for agriculture and cattle-raising,
urbanization, mining and oil exploitation, acid rain and fire. However, there has been a tendency of highlighting small-scale migratory
farmers or "poverty" as the major cause of forest loss. Such farmers tend to settle along roads through the forest, to clear a patch of
land and to use it for growing subsistence or cash crops. In tropical forests, such practices tend to lead to rapid soil degradation as
most soils are too poor to sustain agriculture. Consequently, the farmer is forced to clear another patch of forest after a few years. The
degraded agricultural land is often used for a few years more for cattle raising. This is a death sentence for the soil, as cattle remove
the last scarce traces of fertility. The result is an entirely degraded piece of land which will be unable to recover its original biomass
for many years. It is a major mistake to think that such unsustainable agricultural practices only take place in tropical countries. Many
parts of North America and western Europe have become deforested due to unsustainable agriculture, leading to severe soil
degradation and in many cases abandonment of the area by the farmers.
Logging
World Rainforest Movement 98: What are underlying causes of deforestation? http://www.wrm.org.uy/deforestation/indirect.html
In other countries, clearcut logging practices have been the main reason for forest loss. In the early nineties, Canada and Malaysia
were famous examples of countries where logging companies ruthlessly cleared mile upon mile of precious primary forests. Here too,
the historical perspective should not be overlooked. Countries like Ireland and Scotland used to be almost entirely forested, but were
nearly completely cleared under British rule to provide timber for English shipbuilders. Today, logging still forms the most important
direct threat to forests in regions like the Guianan shield (stable area of low relief in the Earth's crust), Central Africa, East Siberia and
British Columbia.
Consumption
World Rainforest Movement 98: What are underlying causes of deforestation? http://www.wrm.org.uy/deforestation/indirect.html
It should be emphasized that it is seldom the production of food for the poor which causes deforestation, as the largest areas of forests
converted to other uses are currently being dedicated to the production of cash crops and cattle. These products, which vary from
coffee and beef to coca and soy bean, are in many cases almost exclusively produced for export markets in OECD countries. It is
absurd to defend the production of these goods with arguments about food security, as some governments and international institutions
(including the FAO) do, since Northern countries have excessively high levels of consumption.
Under the current free-trade oriented ideology, the standard solution of institutions like the International Monetary Fund for these
problems is increasing exports, instead of decreasing imports. Meanwhile, it is the import of luxury goods for the wealthy, as well as
weapons, which tend to lie at the roots of trade balance and balance of payments distortions, both in industrialized and in low income
countries. One of the major contributory factors in deforestation is the failure of macro-economic bodies like the Bretton Woods
Institutions to recognize this relationship between consumption patterns and macro-economic problems.
Military
World Rainforest Movement 98: What are underlying causes of deforestation? http://www.wrm.org.uy/deforestation/indirect.html
Weapons imports constitute an important socio-economic, and thus ecological burden in many countries. Every dollar spent on
weapons is one dollar less spent on education, health-care, sustainable technology development and sustainable development in
general. It is also one dollar on the wrong side of the balance of payments. The export of weapons constitutes big business for many particularly Northern - countries. Naturally, war and violence themselves place a major direct and indirect burden upon forests. In
some cases, the military have direct interests in logging concessions or the production of cash-crops like coca. The influence of the
military on governmental policies in many countries is profound. For the military, the inaccessibility of forests is a strategic problem.
Indigenous peoples and other isolated groups of society can pose a threat. Opening up the forest and stimulating migration of people
from the centre of the country to these isolated areas serves a strategic purpose. Oil and mineral exploitation within the nation is
strategically important, even when one has to attract foreign companies with conditions which allows all profits to flow out of the
country.
More indirectly, the continuing dominance of Cold War mentalities cause some of the world's macro-economic institutions to be so
ruthlessly free-market oriented. Despite these obvious and not-so-obvious relationships, there seems to be a strong taboo on discussing
the influence of the military on deforestation and other social and ecological problems. Clear figures are absent and little research has
been done.
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AT: DEHUMANIZATION
1. Otherization has existed for centuries – impacts empirically denied, and Native Americans and Hispanics aren’t otherized.
Thomas, Professor, Gov, Politics, Global Studies, 08 (George Thomas, Professor, School of Government, Politics, and Global Studies, Ph.D, Stanford
University, author, 8/22/08, “The Ugly Underside of an Ugly Underside,” http://www.wemagazine.org/the-ugly-underside-of-an-ugly-underside/)
About a decade ago a “Pacific Rim” candidate for political office – I have forgotten who it was, where, and for what office – took a Democratic candidate to task
for his failure to broaden the racial discourse to include mention of minorities other than the usual black vs. white. Gypsies in Europe (called “Rom” in
polite company) have endured “otherization” for so long and so pervasively that even well-positioned social scientists dismiss Rom
studies to be less-than-legitimate. (For color-conscious bigots out there, many European terms for the Rom/Gypsies translate as “black,” for hair color).
American “Otherization” survived a long history as well. Slaves were taken in war, and people were respected or deprived on
the basis of language and custom. It wasn’t until the Anglicization of North America that skin color became the primary criterion for how humans were
classified and cubby holed. Today’s Hispanic population and, for that matter, other Native American descendants, cannot be placed in
one such hole, whether pigeon or cubby. North American Indians have issues different from those to the south. Additional issues
stemming from the reservation system suggest deep-seated internal conflict between the need to marginalize Indians while simultaneously providing real estate
and special government support. Others in society, black, white, Hispanic, or other “others,” adopt the Hollywood stereotype toward reservation Indians with
many of the expected non-complimentary generalizations. And of course Mexican-Americans exchange ridicule with Dominicans, Cubans and Puerto Ricans,
and the love fest parties on.
2. Holocaust was epitome of dehumanization – impacts empirically denied.
2. Each group of “other” otherizes one another, contributing to an unbreakable cycle.
Thomas, Professor, Gov, Politics, Global Studies, 08 (George Thomas, Professor, School of Government, Politics, and Global Studies, Ph.D, Stanford
University, author, 8/22/08, “The Ugly Underside of an Ugly Underside,” http://www.wemagazine.org/the-ugly-underside-of-an-ugly-underside/)
It remained for the special social histories of the United States for the symbiotic cycle of bigotry to be completed. Today, blacks,
Hispanics, white supremacists and…. Who have we left out unintentionally? exchange ideas for use in ridiculing some other
“other.” Indeed if one reads classic studies of (or has actual experience observing) “The Nature of Prejudice” at work, one sees that our neighbors often operate by means of social
defenses developed through generations. I have heard many Hispanic Texans fight back against exclusionary American Black politics. Some of my Hispanic relatives hold advanced
Some Hispanic declarations against Obama sound every bit as
racist as the Jim Crow sentiments reminiscent of the worst of deep southern white supremacy.
degrees and have successful law practices, yet refuse to vote Obama based solely on race.
3. The law is inherently dehumanizing. Working through the government cannot solve dehumanization.
Morrison, J.D., Boston College Law School, 06 (Steven R. Morrison, J.D., Boston College Law School, Criminal Law, Fall 06, Dartmouth Law Journal,
“Dehumanization
and
Recreation:
A
Lacanian
Interpretation
of
the
Federal
Sentencing
Guidelines,
pp.
108-109,
http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=steven_morrison)
Lacan clearly suggests that the law tends to dehumanize people and recreate them as less than human but more suitable for
governance. Marvin Frankel has described the "gross evils and defaults in what is probably the most critical point in our system of
administering justice, the imposition of a sentence." Frankel goes on to assert a need to "humanize criminal sentencing." He calls to Lacan in stating that "the Guideline range
is not sufficiently broad to accommodate relevant differences among offenders. The judge’s power to depart therefore became the crucial mechanism for avoiding undue rigidity." This
law does away with individuality. It ignores individual
uniqueness and instead installs a system with a philosophy of human sameness, a kind of blind equality. The FSG thus, by
argument derives from Lacan’s notion of law that "universalizes significations," meaning that
universalizing the offender, become "offensive to the whole notion of human dignity" by ignoring the offender’s personal characteristics.
4. War is dehumanizing to the aggressors, turning the case.
Shahabi, Political activist, 08
(Mehrnaz Shahabi, Political activist, anti-war campaigner, translator, 4/25/08,
http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/4753)
The shameful exposition by the American presidential hopeful, Hillary Clinton, of her mass genocidal intentions towards
Iranians was tragic proof of the dehumanising impact of warmongering on an elite western mind. It is said that humanity is the
first casualty of war and this has been starkly clear, not only in the murderous boasting of the presidential candidate's
preparedness to "totally obliterate" an entire nation, to prove her appeal as the American president, but worse still, in the meek
and acquiescent response or no response at all of the western mainstream journalists, politicians and intelligentsia.
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EXT #3 – GOV’T = DEHUMANIZING
The state is dehumanizing because of bureaucracy and the ability to make war.
Stephens, software engineer, 04
(Robert L. Stephens, software engineer, 6/2/04, http://robertlstephens.com/essays/essay_frame.php?essayroot=stephens-robertl/&essayfile=002BadInfluence.html)
Dehumanization, of a sort, is yet one more inevitable consequence of the sheer size and structure of the modern state. There is
simply no way for the agents of an organization claiming to "serve" hundreds of thousands (or hundreds of millions!) of people
to know anything about the vast majority of those individuals beyond some disembodied entries on a tax return, or an arbitrary
accounting convenience like a Social Security number. To borrow a phrase often used by critics of large private enterprises, the
modern state is "beyond human scale."
Another, more insidious, form of dehumanization is inseparable from the political process that is the very essence of the state. To
see this, let's first consider the most extreme act of the state: war. In order to break down people's natural resistance to the killing
of other human beings, states have historically made dehumanization of the enemy one of the major components of their war
propaganda. With the enemy reduced to less-than-human status, it's easier to justify the use of lethal force against him.
The government is inherently dehumanizing because it seeks to control people.
Morrison, J.D., Boston College Law School, 06
(Steven R. Morrison, J.D., Boston College Law School, Criminal Law, Fall 06, Dartmouth Law Journal, “Dehumanization and
Recreation: A Lacanian Interpretation of the Federal Sentencing Guidelines, pp. 120-121,
http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=steven_morrison)
At this point, we have discussed how the law denies a person’s humanity. However, it creates something new in its place, since
"[a]t each instant of its intervention, this law creates something new. Every situation is transformed by its intervention." The recreation of an individual depends on what will best eliminate discordant ideas, since "[a] discordant statement [is] unknown in
law." This may be seen as Lacan’s way of saying `that the law as a master will do what it must to preserve its power, that is, to
preserve "the existing relations of production and the moral and social order." Therefore, if society views minorities as criminal,
then the PSG will shape itself to fulfill that prophesy. If judges are seen as abusive of their discretion in judging, then the FSG
will create judges that are "mere automatons, permitted only to apply a mathematical formula." lf the Sentencing Commission
becomes sympathetic toward the idea of downward departures and the rigid strictures of PROTECT, then Congress will create a
Commission that becomes a mere tool for a tough-on-crime policy of sentence increases. The master wants uniformity,
predictability, and severity, and will censor and recreate others in its drive to achieve these goals.
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EXT #4 – WAR = DEHUMANIZING
War dehumanizes victims and aggressors, turning the case.
Bennett, former director of the International Crisis Group in the Balkans, 97
(Christopher Bennett, former director of the International Crisis Group in the Balkans, author of Yugoslavia's Bloody Collapse, 97,
The Ethnicity Reader: Nationalism, Multiculturalism, and Migration, compilation edited by Montserrat Guibernau and John Rex, pp.
128-129)
The key to an understanding of the inhumanity of the Yugoslav wars is the phenomenon of war itself. The state of mind which is
capable of committing atrocities is one which has been disturbed by war, not some mythical Balkan mentality. For war is
dehumanizing; it destroys the very fabric of society and leaves psychologically unstable people in its wake, people who have lost
contact with reality and are no longer in control of their own actions. After almost half a century of peace in the Western world,
in which time many people have grown up without experiencing conflict, the brutality of war, albeit via a television screen, has
come as a nasty shock. But war, and especially a protracted civil war, is brutal. Moreover, Westerners who are sucked into wars,
such as the US troops who were engaged in Vietnam, are by no means above committing atrocities themselves.
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AT: DEMOCRACIES SOLVE WARS
1. Democracy won’t prevent wars if there is regional tension
Karen Kaiser & William Thompson, Department of Political Science, Indiana University, JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH,
August 2001, p. 674
We infer from these results that regime type is an important predictor of dispute involvement, but rivalry conditions the relationship
significantly. Democratic dyads are less likely to be involved in disputes, but that probability declines substantially in the presence of
rivalry. Autocratic and mixed dyads, or non-democratic dyads in general, are more likely than democratic dyads to be involved in
disputes, but the probability of dispute involvement increases dramatically when combined with the presence of a rivalry. We view
these findings as support for hypothesis 3’s prediction that rivalry is a more important factor than dyadic regime type.
2. Their studies are flawed – Democracies don’t solve wars
George Kaloudis, Ph.D, International Journal on World Peace, March 2003 v20 i1 p93(2)
Professor Henderson, in this excellent work, examines the impact of democracy on war. More specifically, in Chapter I he provides an
overview of the democratic peace proposition, the argument that democratic states are more peaceful than non-democratic states. In
Chapter II, Dr. Henderson examines the extent to which democracies are less likely to fight each other by replicating one of the most
compelling studies, Oneal and Russett (1997), of the democratic peace proposition. The results suggest that Oneal and Russett's
conclusions are "the result of several questionable research design choices" that seriously undermines their thesis. In Chapter III, Dr.
Henderson examines the proposition "that democracies are more peaceful, in general, than non-democracies." Professor Henderson
concludes that these studies also rely "on faulty research design." In Chapter IV, Dr. Henderson "focuses on the role of democracy in
extrastate wars." He finds that "democracies are less likely to become involved in these wars; however, the Western democracies are
more likely to become involved in them." In Chapter V, Dr. Henderson examines the extent to which the democratic peace proposition
applies to civil wars. He concludes that the democratic peace proposition "does not seem to be operative for international or civil
wars." In Chapter VI, Dr. Henderson suggests "an alternative explanation of the postwar absence of interstate war between democratic
states." He argues that "a combination of factors including bipolarity, alliance membership, and trade links reduced conflict among
many jointly democratic and jointly autocratic states."
3. Their argument is empirically denied – as long as there are some democracies that will still fight, wars will continue
James Ostrowski; Attorney at Law, Buffalo; March 14, 2002 (Does Democracy Promote Peace? http://www.mises.org/asc/2002/asc8ostrowski.pdf)
Rummel’s thesis crumbles at the very beginning for want of a cogent definition of peace. It is true that Rummel, at varying times and
places expresses sympathy for the classical liberal state with fairly limited powers, this sympathy is not consistently manifest. He
boasts that special interest group politics is a normal feature of democracy. He refers to the “ideological baggage” of classical
liberalism. His enthusiasm for “democracy”, however, is repeated continuously and with little reservation. Further, his apparent
personal sympathy for classical liberalism appears to play no role whatsoever in his theory. That theory vindicates modern
democratic states, none of which is a classical liberal minimal state. Thus, if power kills, one should not support democracy, but a
republican minimal or ultra minimal state or no state whatsoever (self-government). Asking the wrong question. Does it really matter
whether democracies in general promote peace? Let’s assume that the vast majority of democracies are peaceful, but that a few are
not. Would not that scenario allow for the generation of statistics which show that democracies are generally peaceful? Rummel
considers this prospect, but casually dismisses it. He calls focusing on a few bellicose democracies a “methodological error.”
However, let’s assume that the bellicose democracies are the most powerful democracies. Is it not then a distortion of reality to still
maintain that democracies generally are peaceful? Imagine you are visiting an aquarium that features a large shark tank. There are 100
sharks in the tank. Ninety-five of the sharks are either docile or too small to injure a human. There are, however, five hungry great
whites. Certainly, the overwhelming majority of the sharks are harmless, but would you swim in that tank? Similarly, we should not
ask, are democracies peaceful, but is the United States peaceful? Are the other militarily powerful democracies—United Kingdom,
France, India, Israel, peaceful? History shows they are not. See, Figure No. 7. As Gowa writes, “Theory suggests and empirical studies
confirm that major powers are much more likely than are other states to become involved in armed disputes, including war.
4. Even if democracies are less likely to cause wars, wars will still occur in transition
Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Professor of Political Science and director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for
International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania, THE NATIONAL INTEREST, WINTER 2005-6,
http://www.nationalinterest.org/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=Publishing&mod=Publications%3A%3AArticle&mid=1ABA92E
FCD8348688A4EBEB3D69D33EF&tier=4&id=46FB6DB413A94CA3BA62C68AC0D46181
THE BUSH Administration has argued that promoting democracy in the Islamic world, rogue states and China will enhance America's
security, because tyranny breeds violence and democracies co-exist peacefully. But recent experience in Iraq and elsewhere reveals
that the early stages of transitions to electoral politics have often been rife with violence.
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EXT #4 – TRANSITION WARS
THE FIRST STAGE OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS IS FILLED WITH NATIONALISM
Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Professor of Political Science and director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for
International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania, THE NATIONAL INTEREST, WINTER 2005-6,
http://www.nationalinterest.org/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=Publishing&mod=Publications%3A%3AArticle&mid=1ABA92E
FCD8348688A4EBEB3D69D33EF&tier=4&id=46FB6DB413A94CA3BA62C68AC0D46181
FROM THE French Revolution to contemporary Iraq, the beginning phase of democratization in unsettled circumstances has often
spurred a rise in militant nationalism. Democracy means rule by the people, but when territorial control and popular loyalties are in
flux, a prior question has to be settled: Which people will form the nation? Nationalist politicians vie for popular support to answer
that question in a way that suits their purposes. When groups are at loggerheads and the rules guiding domestic politics are unclear, the
answer is more often based on a test of force and political manipulation than on democratic procedures.
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AT: DETERRANCE
Actors are psychologically unpredictable making deterrence useless.
Record 4(Jeffery former professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee “Nuclear Deterrence, Preventive War, and
Counterproliferation” July 8 The CATO Institute)AQB
That said, nuclear deterrence, like its nonnuclear varieties, is a psychological process and therefore inherently difficult to manage.
Colin Gray astutely points out that “the intended deterree is at liberty to refuse to allow his policy to be controlled by foreign
menaces.” In other words, “Whether or not the intended deterree decides he is deterred is a decision that remains strictly in his
hands.”17 And his decision may be governed by not only an entirely different set of values than that of the deterrer but also a
much greater stake in the outcome of the crisis at hand. Keith Payne at the National Institute for Public Policy and Dale Walton at
Southwest Missouri State University observe that the presumption of rationality “does not . . . imply that the decision-maker’s
prioritization of goals and values will be shared by or considered sensible to outside observers. Nor does rationality imply that any
particular moral standard guides the selection of goals and values.” In fact, “rational decision making can underlie behavior judged
to be unreasonable, shocking, and even criminal by an observer because that behavior is so far removed from any shared norms
and standards. Rational leaders with extreme ideological commitments, for instance, may have goals that appear irrational to
outside observers.”18 Johnson administration decision makers in 1965 fatally underestimated North Vietnam’s strength of interest
in the struggle for South Vietnam and believed that Hanoi could be brought to heel via a coercive bombing campaign. They failed
to understand that a reunified Vietnam under communist auspices was a nonnegotiable war aim for Hanoi and, for that very reason,
that the Vietnamese communists were prepared to make—and made—manpower sacrifices “irrational” in magnitude.19
Additionally, the deterree, whatever his values and priorities, might not regard a deterrent threat as credible. The foundation of
successful deterrence is the deterree’s conviction that the deterrer means what he says, that he has the will to do what he threatens
to do. Nonnuclear deterrence was a significant problem for the United States in the years separating defeat in Vietnam and the 9/11
attacks. The so-called “Vietnam syndrome,” enshrined in the Weinberger-Powell doctrine and reinforced by humiliating military
evacuations under fire in Lebanon and Somalia and by agonizing indecision in the Balkans, conveyed an image of military power
greatly in excess of a willingness to use it and use it decisively. Both Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden were motivated to
attack U.S. interests in part out of a low regard for America’s willingness to sustain bloody combat overseas.
9/11 proves that deterrence fails against non-state actors like terrorists.
Record 4(Jeffery former professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee “Nuclear Deterrence, Preventive War, and
Counterproliferation” July 8 The CATO Institute)AQB
The Bush administration believes that the 9/11 attacks demonstrate a diminished efficacy of nuclear deterrence. With respect to
nonstate enemies, especially fanatical terrorist organizations like al Qaeda, deterrence is clearly inadequate. How does one deter an
enemy with which one is already at war and which presents little in the way of assets—territory, population, governmental
infrastructure, and so forth—that can be held hostage to retaliation? Preventive military action, in contrast, is integral to the
prosecution of hostilities against state and nonstate enemies; once a war is underway, military action to deny the enemy the ability
to fight another day is inevitable and imperative, whether that “another day” is tomorrow or a potential future war years away. To
destroy and disrupt is to deny and prevent. Striking first inside a war is not an issue. Thus, in the war against al Qaeda, having
“already been attacked, it is logical for the United States . . . to strike first against al Qaeda and similar groups whenever doing so
is militarily feasible and effective,” noted Betts before the Iraq War. “The issue arises in regard to states who have not attacked
us—at least not yet. This distinction between Iraq and al Qaeda, obscured in much discussion of this issue, must be clearly
maintained.”5
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AT: DIRTY BOMB
Impact of dirty bomb would be minimal
San Francisco Chronicle, 2 (March 7, 2002)
The most likely threat is from a dirty bomb, experts testified yesterday. Such a device could be made by taking radioactive
material commonly found in X-ray machines or used to sterilize medical instruments and food, in a variety of industrial uses and at
nuclear power plants. The device would be detonated with conventional explosives. "I believe that the deliberate dispersal of
radioactive materials is a significant and plausible threat," said Steven Koonin, Caltech's provost in Pasadena. The good news, if
there is any, is that not many people would die from such an attack, perhaps none immediately. Koonin calculates that dispersal of
just three Curies of a radioactive isotope, equal to a fraction of a gram, over a square mile would mean that for every 100,000
people exposed, four cancer deaths would be added to the 20,000 cancer deaths that would have occurred anyway.
Dirty bombs don’t cause catastrophes
San Francisco Chronicle, 1 (September 16, 2001)
In theory, terrorists could use a small rocket or explosive to disperse radioactive materials and extend the damage. However, experts
know how to clean up such a radioactive spill, and it would not "cause a catastrophe like a (nuclear) fission weapon would," Pate said.
Asked whether any terrorist groups might have independently developed nuclear weapons, Pate scoffed, pointing out the extreme
difficulty of obtaining the crucial ingredient: fissionable enriched uranium or plutonium. Even "countries with nuclear power
infrastructures . . . have worked for years and years and years trying to develop nuclear weapons and have failed," he said.
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AT: DISEASES  EXTINCTION (GENERIC)
(__) No impact to disease – they either burn out or don’t spread
Posner 05 (Richard A, judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals, Seventh Circuit, and senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law
School, Winter. “Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic risks and what we can do about them.”
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmske/is_3_11/ai_n29167514/pg_2?tag=content;col1)
Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its existence is a source
of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction events. There have been enormously destructive plagues, such as the Black
Death, smallpox, and now AIDS, but none has come close to destroying the entire human race. There is a biological reason. Natural
selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if
the germs do not kill their hosts too quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by lying dormant yet
infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread. Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human race. The
likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except
in prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider
human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. The reason is improvements in medical science. But the
comfort is a small one. Pandemics can still impose enormous losses and resist prevention and cure: the lesson of the AIDS pandemic.
And there is always a lust time.
(__) Technology will cure all diseases—stem cells
Han Dingchao, July 9, 2008 “Can We Cure All Diseases In The Future?” http://www.handingchao.com/can-we-cure-all-diseasesin-the-future/
Now let’s be back to the title, can we cure all diseases in the future? This is a complicated question, it is difficult to make an
definite answer for it, but one thing is sure, as long as we don’t stop researching and we have fair eyes on everything, we will have
ability to cure most diseases in the future. And now we have ability to expand the great results of stem cell research, we will use
them perfectly in the coming years, this will be a great news in medical industry. So now we have enough faith to believe we will
have enough ability to cure all disease in the future.
(__) Apocalyptic disease impacts are just constructs of pop culture hysteria
Schell 97 Heather Schell, Ph.D. candidate in Modern Thought and Literature at Stanford, teaches Women's Studies and English at Miami University, Winter 1997,
Configurations, Vol. 5, Issue 1, “Outburst! A Chilling True Story about Emerging-Virus Narratives and Pandemic Social Change,”
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/configurations/v005/5.1schell.html
No matter who specifically gets blamed, we must also recognize the sincere apocalyptic fear from which such analyses spring. The
film Outbreak opens with
Joshua Lederberg's ominous warning that "the single biggest threat to man's continued dominance on the planet is the virus." A
molecular geneticist, Lederberg is president emeritus and university professor at Rockefeller University and a past Nobel Prize winner. He perceives himself as one of
"a relatively small number of investigators" worried about the potential for a viral epidemic. 66 A recent spate of academic conferences, articles, and edited books on
emerging viruses and viral evolution seem to indicate that Lederberg is not alone anymore. 67 Of course, hemorrhagic fevers legitimately frightened
medical personnel long before their current popularity. For example, in the wake of the 1976 Ebola outbreaks in Zaire and Sudan, a laboratory technician
in England accidentally pricked himself with an Ebola-contaminated needle. He was quarantined in an isolation unit in the hospital during his illness. The medical
personnel who attended him also decided to quarantine themselves, despite the substantial barriers between themselves and the patient. They reached this decision after
a good portion of the doctors and nurses attending the patient developed a fever that they suspected might be Ebola. All recovered within a few days, having [End Page
110] succumbed to an apparently psychosomatic fever. 68 The current consciousness-raising project about the risk of viral epidemics also shares
intimate concerns alongside the more global considerations. If future epidemics mirror past epidemics, suggests one medical historian,
modern medicine will not be much help because "doctors would simply be the first to go." 69 The journalists who are writing about
emerging viruses are also uneasy and ready to be frightened. The rapidity of viral evolution makes anything seem possible, to the
extent that the postponed arrival of viral apocalypse continually startles the writers. For example, Barbara Culliton, a science writer for
Nature and head of the respected program in science writing at Johns Hopkins University, marvels that "none of the people who
handled the five now dead monkeys [at the Reston primate quarantine facility] has gotten sick from the virus, but no one is sure how
to explain that bit of good fortune." 70 Richard Horton, U.S. editor of the Lancet, similarly considers the absence of human death resulting from the Reston
outbreak "a stroke of unbelievable and unexpected good fortune." 71 Mary Roach, a contributing editor to Health, exults: "By pure, outrageous luck, the virus
turned out to be a mutated strain, far less virulent to humans." 72 [End Page 111] To date, suspected importations of Ebola and other
hemorrhagic fever viruses into the United States have all been false alarms. Preston's entire book details a disaster that never happened: Milton
Frantig, grimly heralded as a potential "hot agent" victim in the United States, turns out to have had the flu. 73 This recalls the tense U.S. medical response in 1969
when a returning Peace Corps worker was diagnosed with Lassa fever: more than five hundred potential contacts were identified and monitored in Sierra Leone, Japan,
Great Britain, Washington, D.C., and twenty-one U.S. states; the patient recovered without spreading the disease to anyone. 74 Some virologists in the 1970s were
clearly anticipating the possibility that a major epidemic could sneak into our country; the AIDS epidemic confirmed this and convinced many others
that pandemics of virulent superviruses were a real concern. It seems as though many people now sincerely believe that the world
could end in pestilence, almost as though viruses have now taken the place of nuclear weapons in our apocalyptic imaginations. We
seem to live in a fragile world--in Garrett's terms, "a world out of balance"--where some small social change might push the button
that instigates viral Armageddon.
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EXT #1 – NO EXTINCTION
Disease won’t kill us- humans are evolving faster to resist them.
Clover, 08,Charles Clover, Daily Telegraph Environment Editor 2008,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/02/05/scievol105.xml
A major genetic survey shows how we are changing, reports Roger Highfield Evidence that humans will evolve to shrug off diseases such as
type 2 diabetes and obesity has emerged. - Humans 'evolving to have children later' - Dmanisi fossil sheds new light on human evolution Language development mirrors species evolution A survey of the human genetic code has shown that our resistance to malaria, diabetes and
other diseases is changing in response to our environment. Dr Lluís Quintana-Murci of the Institut Pasteur, Paris, and colleagues analysed more than
2.8 million single letter spelling mistakes in the human genetic code to distinguish the usual random changes over the last 60,000 years from those
that seem to be occurring in response to the environment, when a genetic mutation gives people an advantage over their peers. People are surprisingly
similar at the DNA level and the work "abolishes the idea of race" he says. But when it comes to the few differences, those showing the strongest
signature of this effect, called positive selection, are involved in skin pigmentation and hair development, as is already obvious from how white
people live in darker climates. "You do not need genetics to know this, but it shows our method works." In the journal Nature Genetics the team
reports that several traits are sometimes linked to the same gene, so that when people in the Far East evolved a different version of a gene called
EDAR to sweat differently, the same gene gave them much denser hair and changed their teeth too, an effect he calls "hitchhiking." Genes that
protect against disease are also evolving. For example, one called CR1 helps to cut the severity of malaria attacks and is now present in eight
Africans in every ten, yet is absent elsewhere, a novel finding. Several genes, such as ENPP1, are involved in the regulation of the hormone insulin
and in metabolic syndrome - a combination of adult diabetes and obesity. These are present in 90 per cent of non-Africans and their relative absence
could explain why African Americans are particularly at risk of obesity and high blood pressure. The work suggests they are adapted to an African
environment and have not adapted to an American lifestyle. "They have not had the time to readapt," says Dr Quintana-Murci. Prof Steve Jones of
University College London comments: "They have shown that man was once more like other animals than we might like to imagine, for Nature
imposed her rules on us in the same way as she did on rats or flies. "There are three great eras of history; the age of disaster, when we were
killed by cold or sabre-toothed tigers, the age of disease - the epidemics which began with farming - and the age of decay, in which
most of the developed world now lives, and dies of old age. "DNA now shows how much we were moulded by the force of natural
selection during first two; but my guess is that in future, now that we nearly all survive for long enough to pass on our genes, much less will happen. Perhaps you
can ask me again in ten thousand years." An earlier study by a team led by University of Wisconsin-Madison anthropologist Prof John Hawks suggested that
humankind has evolved more rapidly in the past 5,000 years, at a rate roughly 100 times higher than any other period of human
evolution. This work counters a common theory that human evolution has slowed to a crawl or even stopped in modern humans, since
in modern society the survivors no longer have to be the fittest.
Through natural selection and the growth in population the world can outrun disease.
Orlow, 05 Elizabeth Orlow, Millersville University, Summer 2005, http://www.millersville.edu/~columbus/papers/orlow-e.html
The origin of disease in the New World and the Old World is very different. In the Old World, Europeans had already come in contact
with various types of infectious disease and acquired immunity. The European’s genes also became resistant overtime. Through
natural selection the relative frequency of a gene appears to change over generations. For an example, people who have acquired
resistant genes over generations are more likely to survive various types of diseases. Also, when the human population becomes larger
a disease is sustained better. One of the reasons why the Europeans acquired immunity to various diseases was due to domesticated
animals.
Disease spread won’t cause extinction
Peters and Chrystal 03, (Dr. Clarence, Director of Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases @ UT, and Dr. Ronald, Chairman
of Genetics Medicine @ Cornell, FDCH Political Transcripts, “U.S. REPRESENTATIVE CHRISTOPHER COX (R-CA) HOLDS
HEARING ON COUNTERING THE BIOTERRORISM THREAT”, 3-15, L/N)
PETERS: I think we have one example from the movement of the Conquistadors to the New World. They brought measles, smallpox
and a variety of other diseases with them. They didn't wipe out the Indians, but they destroyed their civilization and were instrumental
in the Spaniards being able to conquer the New World with relatively few people. I think we have something going on right now with
SARS that we don't know exactly what the end of it's going to be, but we already know that Asian economies are suffering
tremendously. My prediction is that they will not be able to control it in China. If that's true, then we will be dealing with repeated
introductions in this country for the indefinite future so that we may see a change in our way of life where we are taking temperatures
in airports, in addition to taking your shoes off and putting them through the X-ray machine. And we may see emergency rooms
rebuilt so that if you have a cough you go in one entrance and go into a negative pressure cubicle until your SARS test comes back. So
I think that while wiping out human life is extremely unlikely, we have unengineered examples of bugs that have made great impacts
on civilizations. COX: Dr. Crystal? CRYSTAL: The natural examples of what you suggested were, as hundreds of years ago, with
smallpox and also with the plague. The plague wiped out one-third of the civilization. We now have treatments for ordinances (ph)
like the plague because they were engineered to be resistant. And if they infected a number of people and had the capability of being
spread rapidly from individual to individual, it would cause enormous havoc. I agree with the panel -- I don't think it would wipe out
civilization, but the consequences to our society would be enormous.
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EXT #1 – NO EXTINCTION
Virulence reduction solves – humans will outgrow disease
National Geographic ’04 (“Our Friend, The Plague: Can Germs Keep Us Healthy?” September 8,
http://www.promedpersonnel.com/whatsnew.asp?intCategoryID=73&intArticleID=443)
Whenever a new disease appears somewhere on our planet, experts invariably pop up on TV with grave summations of the problem,
usually along the lines of, “We’re in a war against the microbes” – pause for dramatic effect – “and the microbes are winning.” War,
however, is a ridiculously overused metaphor and probably should be bombed back to the Stone Age. Paul Ewald, a biologist at the
University of Louisville, advocates a different approach to lethal microbes. Forget trying to obliterate them, he says, and focus instead
on how they co-evolve with humans. Make them mutate in the right direction. Get the powers of evolution on our side. Disease
organisms can, in fact, become less virulent over time. When it was first recognized in Europe around 1495, syphilis killed its human
hosts within months. The quick progression of the disease – from infection to death – limited the ability of syphilis to spread. So a new
form evolved, one that gave carriers years to infect others. For the same reason, the common cold has become less dangerous. Milder
strains of the virus – spread by people out and about, touching things, and shaking hands – have an evolutionary advantage over more
debilitating strains. You can’t spread a cold very easily if you’re incapable of rolling out of bed. This process has already weakened all
but one virulent strain of malaria: Plasmodium falciparum succeeds in part because bedridden victims of the disease are more
vulnerable to mosquitoes that carry and transmit the parasite. To mitigate malaria, the secret is to improve housing conditions. If
people put screens on doors and windows, and use bed nets, it creates an evolutionary incentive for Plasmodium falciparum to become
milder and self-limiting. Immobilized people protected by nets and screens can’t easily spread the parasite, so evolution would favor
forms that let infected people walk around and get bitten by mosquitoes. There are also a few high-tech tricks for nudging microbes in
the right evolutionary direction. One company, called MedImmune, has created a flu vaccine using a modified influenza virus that
thrives at 77 degrees Fahrenheit instead of 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit, the normal human body temperature. The vaccine can be sprayed
in a person’s nose, where the virus survives in the cool nasal passages but not in the hot lungs or elsewhere in the body. The immune
system produces antibodies that make the person better prepared for most normal, nasty influenza bugs. Maybe someday we’ll barely
notice when we get colonized by disease organisms. We’ll have co-opted them. They’ll be like in-laws, a little annoying but tolerable.
If a friend sees us sniffling, we’ll just say, Oh, it’s nothing – just a touch of the plague.
No chance viruses will kill us all
Posner 05 (Richard, Judge 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, Skeptic, “Catastrophe”, 11:3, Proquest)
AIDS illustrates the further point that despite the progress made by modern medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases,
developing a vaccine or cure for a new (or newly recognized or newly virulent) disease may be difficult, protracted, even impossible.
Progress has been made in treating ATDS, but neither a cure nor a vaccine has yet been developed. And because the virus's mutation
rate is high, the treatments may not work in the long run.7 Rapidly mutating viruses are difficult to vaccinate against, which is why
there is no vaccine for the common cold and why flu vaccines provide only limited protection.8 Paradoxically, a treatment that is
neither cure nor vaccine, but merely reduces the severity of a disease, may accelerate its spread by reducing the benefit from avoiding
becoming infected. This is an important consideration with respect to AIDS, which is spread mainly by voluntary intimate contact
with infected people. Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its
existence is a source of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction events. There have been enormously destaictive plagues,
such as the Black Death, smallpox, and now AIDS, but none has come close to destroying the entire human race. There is a biological
reason. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely
to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by
lying dormant yet infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread. Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human
race. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the
past (except in prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite
wider human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. The reason is improvements in medical science. But
the comfort is a small one. Pandemics can still impose enormous losses and resist prevention and cure: the lesson of the AIDS
pandemic. And there is always a first time.
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AT: DISEASE THREATENS NATIONAL SECURITY
There is no link between disease outbreaks and national security
P. Fidler, Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003, George Washington International Law Review, 35 Geo. Wash.
Int'l L. Rev. 787, p. 795-6
Despite the Clinton administration's claim that infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, represented a national
security threat to the United States, the administration behaved in ways that indicated it did not practice what it preached. The most
glaring discrepancy on this issue came in the hard line the Clinton administration took against developing countries, such as South Africa, that sought to increase access
to antiretroviral therapies for HIV/AIDS-ravaged populations. Reviewing the National Intelligence Council's report on The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its
Implications for the United States in Foreign Affairs, Philip Zelikow argued: "The analysis is fascinating, and the case for international humanitarian action
is compelling. But why invoke the "national security" justification for intervention? The case for direct effects on U.S. security is thin.
Frustration also accompanied efforts to delineate the linkage. CBACI and the CSIS International Security Program engaged in an
eighteen-month research project on the question of whether the "growing number of intersections between health and security issues
create a national security challenge for the United States" only to conclude that "we still cannot provide a definitive answer."
Perception is key – disease outbreaks are not perceived as a security threat
David P. Fidler, Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003, George Washington International Law Review, 35 Geo.
Wash. Int'l L. Rev. 787, p. 839-41
As analyzed above, arguments that infectious diseases coming from other countries through international trade and travel constitute
a direct national security threat to the United States were not persuasive. "Germs don't recognize borders" did not impress the national
security community in the United States, and the seismic shift precipitated by the anthrax attacks reinforces this skepticism. At the time of this writing, for
example, the global spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) - a new, contagious disease causing severe public health and economic problems in Asia
and Canadan226 - was not being discussed in the United States as a national security issue, except in connection with how SARS may
affect U.S. military efforts in Iraq. The emerging concept of public health security in the United States only weakly recognizes the
national security importance of the globalization of infectious diseases. This argument does not mean that the globalization of infectious diseases is
entirely absent from the post-anthrax U.S. foreign policy agenda. The Bush administration's national security strategy includes frequent references to the foreign policy
importance of HIV/AIDS, and President Bush's announcement in January 2003 of an Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief represented a dramatic proposal for increased
U.S. humanitarian assistance to nations in Africa and the Caribbean significantly affected by HIV/AIDS. n229 As indicated earlier in this Article, not all foreign
policy issues rise, however, to the level of being national security concerns. As a consequence, global infectious disease problems do
not feature strongly in the emerging scope and substance of public health security in the United States.
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AT: DOLLAR DECLINE
Any decline in the dollar is small and self-correcting.
Trevor Williams, 1/15/2008. Lloyds TSB Financial Markets. “Macroeconomic themes for 2008: another strong performance by
emerging economies,” FX Street Economics Weekly, http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/economics-weekly/200801-15.html.
Economic growth to be strong once again… Despite the doubling of oil prices and the credit crisis, global economic growth last
year was above the long run average for a fifth year in succession. It was also clear that though growth in the main economies held up very
well, this strong outcome was primarily due to the emerging markets, in particular China, India and Russia. But growth was also strong in all
of the major oil exporters and commodity exporters of metals and minerals. There are few signs from these economies in recent months that the
pace of growth is yet slackening. Oil prices remain high and demand for commodities from the emerging market giants (in terms of population) of China
and India is still strong. However, we project that higher interest rates in many of the emerging market economies and currency appreciation over the past year and likely to persist into this year - will slow down growth in 2008 compared with 2007. ...led by emerging markets... But with oil prices still high and
commodity prices in general still strong, emerging market growth will remain broad based and not confined to the largest developing
economies. Continued growth in the emerging economies will also help growth in the developed economies to
stabilise at or near trend rates this year. This means growth for the UK of 2.3% and for the eurozone 2%. For the US, growth is likely to remain below
trend, at some 2%, as a result of the fallout from an extremely overvalued housing market slowing down and the bursting of the credit market bubble. This
should be seen as good news in the medium term as the US has been consuming too much and saving too little in recent
years, which meant that it was running an ever larger external deficit that threatened the stability of the global economy . A
weaker currency will help to rebalance the global economy and make growth more sustainable in the years' ahead.
With continued weakness in the US dollar likely this year, we look for faster export growth and sharply lower interest rates to spur
economic recovery in the second half of 2008 . However, once growth starts to recover, and it is clear that interest rates have peaked, the US$
could well reverse some of its decline.
Weak dollar is self-correcting.
N. Gregory Mankiw, 12/23/2007. Professor of economics at Harvard, and he wrote my econ textbook last semester. “How to Avoid
Recession? Let the Fed Work,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/business/23view.html?ref=business.
By making United States bonds less attractive to world investors, lower interest rates from a monetary expansion also weaken the dollar in currency markets. A
depreciation of the currency is not in itself to be feared. Treasury secretaries often repeat the mantra of favoring a strong dollar, but
these pronouncements are based more on public relations than hard-headed analysis. A weak currency is a problem if it results
from investors losing confidence in an economy. The most damaging cases are the episodes of sudden capital flight, as occurred in
Mexico in 1994 and several Asian countries in 1997. This outcome is unlikely for the fundamentally sound American economy, but fear of it is
one reason that Treasury secretaries maintain public fealty to a strong dollar. But if a weakened currency comes about because the central bank is trying to
stimulate a lackluster economy, the story is very different. In that case, depreciation is not a malady but just what the doctor ordered. A weaker currency
makes domestic goods more competitive in world markets, promoting exports and bolstering the economy. The dollar’s
falling value is one reason exports of goods and services have grown more than 10 percent in the past year.
No risk of dollar collapse-Japan proves
Money Week 7 (“Why investors fear a China Treasury dump” http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/why-investors-fear-a-chinatreasury-dump.aspx)
Last month, China announced it was investing $3 billion of its dollar reserves in Blackstone Group LP, manager of the secondlargest buyout fund, to boost its returns. What if China were to shoot itself in the foot and dump its entire Treasury portfolio in one
fell swoop? “It just so happens we have a real-world example of what it would mean, according to Bianco. The Bank of Japan
bought $244 billion of Treasuries in the 12 months ended August 2004. During that time, U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the
dollar fell versus the yen. “By April 2006, the BOJ was a net seller of U.S. Treasuries (on a 12-month basis) to the tune of $26
billion, a swing of $270 billion. U.S. interest rates fell during that period while the dollar rose. “‘The BOJ bought a quarter-trillion
dollars of Treasuries and then abruptly stopped and no one noticed,’ Bianco says.
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AT: DOLLAR DUMP
No risk of dollar dump- China diversifies its holdings within US companies cuz nobody wants to buy T-bills.
Money Week 7 (“Why investors fear a China Treasury dump” http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/why-investors-fear-a-chinatreasury-dump.aspx)
Greenspan says there is nothing to fear: “Former Federal Reserve chairman dismisses fear of China dumping U.S. Treasuries”:
“There is little reason to fear a wholesale pullout by China from U.S. government bonds, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan said Tuesday. “While expressing concerns about China's runaway growth rate and what he described as overvalued
stocks, Greenspan played down the prospect that Chinese authorities would sell Treasuries in earnest, forcing a sharp spike in U.S.
interest rates. “Asked at a commercial real estate conference if investors should be worried about this oft-cited concern,
Greenspan said: ‘I wouldn't be, no.’ “Still, Greenspan said the reason such a withdrawal was unlikely was that China would not
have anyone to sell the securities to… “Greenspan said that a global liquidity boom, which he traced back to the end of the Cold
War, would not go on forever. “‘Enjoy it while it lasts,’ he told the audience. “Now a private-sector consultant, following more
than 18 years at the U.S. central bank, Greenspan reiterated his prediction that China's latest growth spurt had come too far, too
fast. “‘We cannot continue this rate of growth in China and the Third World. This cannot continue indefinitely,’ Greenspan said in
a speech. ‘Some of these price-earnings ratios are discounting nirvana.’” Now, there's a comfort... China won't sell them because
'China would not have anyone to sell the securities to.' So instead of accumulating more Treasuries, China is plowing U.S. dollars
into inflated U.S. stocks, agencies (tied to horrendous fundamentals in the U.S. housing market), junk bonds, and other garbage.
No dollar dump-China has nobody else to buy from.
Financial Times 9 (5/24, “China stuck in ‘dollar trap’” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b47c8f8-488c-11de-887000144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss&nclick_check=1)
China’s official foreign exchange manager is still buying record amounts of US government bonds, in spite of Beijing’s
increasingly vocal fear of a dollar collapse, according to officials and analysts. Senior Chinese officials, including Wen Jiabao, the
premier, have repeatedly signalled concern that US policies could lead to a collapse in the dollar and global inflation. But Chinese
and western officials in Beijing said China was caught in a “dollar trap” and has little choice but to keep pouring the bulk of its
growing reserves into the US Treasury, which remains the only market big enough and liquid enough to support its huge
purchases. In March alone, China’s direct holdings of US Treasury securities rose $23.7bn to reach a new record of $768bn,
according to preliminary US data, allowing China to retain its title as the biggest creditor of the US government.
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AT: DOUBLE DIP RECESSION
A “double-dip” recession has no impact on the economy and no Congressional policy will change the economy unless it
addresses the multiple economies of US.
Time 2009 (“A Double Dip Recession? Who Cares?” , Zachary Karabell ,
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2007409,00.html?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0vGdx3kNM)
What should be most striking about these concerns, however, is how little they matter. A double dip is a period of economic
contraction that follows a brief recovery after a recession. It's a useful prop for framing economic and political debates but doesn't
describe what's actually happening across the country. The reality is that if you are doing well in this economy, either as a company or
an individual, you will continue to do well regardless of a statistical double dip. If you are doing badly, you will continue to struggle
whether or not the economic data are improving. (See 10 big recession surprises.) But for tens of millions of others, there is no
recession. For the college-educated, the unemployment rate is 4.4% (for college-educated women, less than that). For them, wages
have been rising, since more-skilled workers command higher salaries and industries ranging from technology to health care have
been hiring and expanding. Those workers are enjoying — in relative moderation — the fruits of modern society, including owning
homes, buying millions of cool gadgets like iPhones and BlackBerrys, taking summer vacations, sending their children to costly but
worthy colleges and worrying over their retirement accounts, which means that they have retirement accounts to worry about. (See the
best business deals of 2009.) And then there are millions of others who fall on the spectrum in between. Very few of these groupings
will be altered by a double-dip recession. If the economy expands by 3% over the next quarters, there is little indication that the
millions currently struggling or the many more in limbo will suddenly be less in limbo. Nor is there any reason to suppose that
companies will suddenly start hiring again. They have integrated productivity-enhancing technologies, understand the dynamics of
inventories and had been trimming workforces for years before the 2008-09 crisis. Better policy from Washington won't change that;
nor is worse policy truly the cause of it, though it is a convenient excuse. On the flip side, if the economy contracts a bit, there is no
reason to expect fewer iPads will be bought. After all, save for a brief few months at the very end of 2008 and the very beginning of
2009, the economic activity of the haves showed remarkable resilience. While contraction will lead to more negative sentiment,
sentiment is already negative and is not a reliable indicator of activity. People can feel bad and spend money — and often do. So the
double-dip question is yet another rabbit hole that distracts from the structural realities and challenges that the U.S. — and the rest of
the world — faces. The debate speaks to a false belief that our macro statistics tell us something truly meaningful when in fact they
are no better than shadows of shadows that offer at best a blurry facsimile. Until we begin to have a discussion about the multiple
economies that constitute the U.S., our attitudes and our answers will fail to generate the desired — and shared — outcome of a more
secure and prosperous future for all.
Double-dip recession won’t be bad – limited downside
GuruFocus.com 7/30 (7/30/10, " How The Risk of a Double Dip Recession is Being Overblown ",
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101578)
Let’s assume for the sake of the argument that I am horribly wrong, and that the economy continues to dive right into a double dip
recession. Let’s tack on other assumptions, too, including a double dip in Europe (which does seems likely, though no one is talking
about it), persistently high unemployment and a bleak outlook for home prices. Let’s also assume our political leaders remain
reasonably rational in their response to this scenario ‐ or at least that they fake it for a while. Should a double dip occur, even under
those circumstances, it’s hard to see it being anything other than a mild recession. Housing is already near a bottom, banks have
already been re‐booting themselves with new capital, and big companies have already gone through rounds of deep layoffs – and
they’re sitting on historically high piles of cash. And whether you’re a supply‐sider or a Keynesian, that we’re coming up on election
season means that a double dip will certainly not go unaddressed in D.C. So even if I’m wrong, I believe the downside is limited ‐ at
least in terms of investing. You are on your own if you quit your job to flip condos in Vegas again. This, by the way, is also why you
need a margin of safety in the companies you buy shares in, too – in case things go south for reasons you don’t originally contemplate.
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AT: DRUG USE
1. Multiple alternative causes for drug use
LHS 07’ Lakeview Health System 2007 http://www.lakeviewhealth.com/causes-of-drug-addiction.php acc: 07/22/09
There are many life events that can be described as drug addiction causes, but what they really are, are triggers for drug use. Some
common triggers might be death of a loved one, divorce, physical pain or an overall unhappiness with oneself or feeling like an
outsider. When a person suffers from a mental illness, such as depression or anxiety to name just two, they will sometimes turn to drug
use as a form of self-medication in order to relieve the feelings that they are unable or unwilling to deal with. The coexistence of a mental disorder and a drug
addiction is known as a dual diagnosis, and both can and should be treated concurrently.
2. Status Quo solving for Drug use
CDE 08’ California Department of Education Safe and Drug-Free Schools and Communities Act September 17, 2008
http://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/he/at/safedrugfree.asp acc: 07/22/09
On January 8, 2002, the President signed into law the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB), which reauthorizes the Elementary And Secondary Education Act
(ESEA) of 1965. The Safe and Drug-Free Schools and Communities Act (SDFSC) as Title IV, Part A of the NCLB became effective on July 1, 2002.
The purpose of the SDFSC is to support programs that prevent violence in and around schools; that prevent the illegal use of alcohol,
tobacco, and drugs; that involve parents and communities; and that are coordinated with related federal, state, school, and
community efforts and resources to foster a safe and drug-free learning environment that supports student academic
achievement. The Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs (ADP) also receives SDFSC funds to support community efforts to keep youth drug and alcohol free.
The ADP now requires that the SDFSC funds allocated to community-based grantees through competitive Request for Applications (RFAs) are used to support
programs or activities that complement and support activities of local educational agencies (LEAs). The mission of the Safe and Healthy Kids Program Office
(SHKPO) is to provide leadership to keep youth safe and alcohol, tobacco and drug free. Drug, alcohol and tobacco-use prevention programs are part of this effort as
well as violence prevention and school safety are part of this effort. Programs to promote youth development, resiliency, buffers, protective factors, and assets are also
part of this effort. The purpose of our prevention programs and youth development efforts is to foster a positive learning
environment that supports academic achievement.
3. Drug use decreasing in status quo
Goliath 04’ Goliath News September 16, 2004 SAMHSA: marijuana use decreasing among youth.
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-5197123/SAMHSA-marijuana-use-decreasing-among.html acc: 07/22/09
A new survey by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) show marijuana use by young
Americans has decreased, while overall illicit drug use showed no measurable change, although the use of some drugs decreased sharply. The
2003 National Survey on Drug Use and Health also shows that overall, 19.5 million Americans ages 12 and older--representing 8 percent of that population--currently
used illicit drugs. The report shows a 5 percent decline in the number of youth between ages 17 and 17 who had ever used
marijuana, while current use of marijuana dropped nearly 30 percent among 12- and 13-year-olds. Important Positive Change
SAMHSA reported that "an important positive change" detected by the survey was "an increase in the perception of risk in using marijuana once a month or more
frequently" on the part of youth and young adults. For youth 12 to 17 years of age, past year use of Ecstasy and LSD dropped 41 and 54 percent, respectively. Of the
16.7 million adult users (18 years and older) of illicit drugs, approximately 74 percent were employed full- or part-time in 2003. Alcohol Dependence The survey found
19.4 million adults with abuse of or dependence on alcohol in 2003, with 77 percent of those individuals employed full- or part-time, representing over 10 percent of the
workers in each group, SAMHSA noted.
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AT: EAST ASIAN ARMS RACE
No Impact to East Asian proliferation –military spending doesn’t spill over and regional security cooperatives solve conflict
and territorial disputes
Feng, professor at the Peking University International Studies.10 [Zhu, “An Emerging Trend in East Asia: Military Budget
Increases and Their Impact”, http://www.fpif.org/articles/an_emerging_trend_in_east_asia?utm_source=feed]
As such, the surge of defense expenditures in East Asia does not add up to an arms race. No country in East Asia wants to see a new
geopolitical divide and spiraling tensions in the region. The growing defense expenditures powerfully illuminate the deepening of a regional “security
dilemma,” whereby the “defensive” actions taken by one country are perceived as “offensive” by another country, which in turn takes its own “defensive” actions that
the first country deems “offensive.” As long as the region doesn’t split into rival blocs, however , an arms race will not ensue. What is happening in East Asia
is the extension of what Robert Hartfiel and Brian Job call “competitive arms processes.” The history of the cold war is telling in this regard. Arm races occur between
great-power rivals only if the rivalry is doomed to intensify. The perceived tensions in the region do not automatically translate into consistent and
lasting increases in military spending. Even declared budget increases are reversible. Taiwan’s defense budget for fiscal year 2010, for
instance, will fall 9 percent. This is a convincing case of how domestic constraints can reverse a government decision to increase the defense budget. Australia’s
twenty-year plan to increase the defense budget could change with a domestic economic contraction or if a new party comes to power.
China’s two-digit increase in its military budget might vanish one day if the type of regime changes or the high rate of economic
growth slows. Without a geopolitical split or a significant great-power rivalry, military budget increases will not likely evolve into “arms races.” The
security dilemma alone is not a leading variable in determining the curve of military expenditures. Nor will trends in weapon
development and procurement inevitably induce “risk-taking” behavior. Given the stability of the regional security architecture—the
combination of U.S.-centered alliance politics and regional, cooperation-based security networking—any power shift in East Asia will hardly
upset the overall status quo. China’s military modernization, its determination to “prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” hasn’t yet led to a
regional response in military budget increases. In contrast, countries in the region continue to emphasize political and economic engagement with China,
though “balancing China” strategies can be found in almost every corner of the region as part of an overall balance-of-power logic. In the last few years, China has
taken big strides toward building up asymmetric war capabilities against Taiwan. Beijing also holds to the formula of a peaceful
solution of the Taiwan issue except in the case of the island’s de jure declaration of independence. Despite its nascent capability of power
projection, China shows no sign that it would coerce Taiwan or become militarily assertive over contentious territorial claims ranging from the Senkaku Islands to the
Spratly Islands to the India-China border dispute.
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AT: EAST ASIAN WAR
East Asian war is unlikely --- all potential conflicts are solved by regional stability initiatives throughout the region
Bitzinger & Desker, 08 – senior fellow and dean of S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies respectively (Richard A. Bitzinger,
Barry Desker, “Why East Asian War is Unlikely,” Survival, December 2008, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/678328_731200556_906256449.pdf)
The Asia-Pacific region can be regarded as a zone of both relative insecurity and strategic stability. It contains some of the world’s
most significant flashpoints – the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the Siachen Glacier – where tensions between nations could
escalate to the point of major war. It is replete with unresolved border issues; is a breeding ground for transnationa terrorism and the
site of many terrorist activities (the Bali bombings, the Manila superferry bombing); and contains overlapping claims for maritime
territories (the Spratly Islands, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands) with considerable actual or potential wealth in resources such as oil, gas
and fisheries. Finally, the Asia-Pacific is an area of strategic significance with many key sea lines of communication and important
chokepoints. Yet despite all these potential crucibles of conflict, the Asia-Pacific, if not an area of serenity and calm, is certainly
more stable than one might expect. To be sure, there are separatist movements and internal struggles, particularly with insurgencies,
as in Thailand, the Philippines and Tibet. Since the resolution of the East Timor crisis, however, the region has been relatively free of
open armed warfare. Separatism remains a challenge, but the break-up of states is unlikely. Terrorism is a nuisance, but its impact is
contained. The North Korean nuclear issue, while not fully resolved, is at least moving toward a conclusion with the likely
denuclearisation of the peninsula. Tensions between China and Taiwan, while always just beneath the surface, seem unlikely to erupt
in open conflict any time soon, especially given recent Kuomintang Party victories in Taiwan and efforts by Taiwan and China to reopen informal channels of consultation as well as institutional relationships between organisations responsible for cross-strait
relations. And while in Asia there is no strong supranational political entity like the European Union, there are many multilateral
organisations and international initiatives dedicated to enhancing peace and stability, including the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) forum, the Proliferation Security Initiative and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. In Southeast Asia,
countries are united in a common eopolitical and economic organisation – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) –
which is dedicated to peaceful economic, social and cultural development, and to the promotion of regional peace and stability.
ASEAN has played a key role in conceiving and establishing broader regional institutions such as the East Asian Summit, ASEAN+3
(China, Japan and South Korea) and the ASEAN Regional Forum. All this suggests that war in Asia – while not inconceivable – is
unlikely.
No escalation --- economic interdependence checks
Weissmann, 09 --- senior fellow at the Swedish School of Advanced Asia Pacific Studies (Mikael Weissmann, “Understanding the
East Asian Peace: Some Findings on the Role of Informal Processes,” Nordic Asia Research Community, November 2, 2009,
http://barha.asiaportal.info/blogs/in-focus/2009/november/understanding-east-asian-peace-some-findings-role-informal-processes-mi)
Economic integration and interdependence (EII) and the interlinked functional cooperation have been important, as they have pushed
positive relations towards a durable peace. This includes not only increasing cooperation and economic growth and development, but
also developing a feeling of security as the economic integration and interdependence decreases the fear of others. EII and functional
cooperation have also encouraged and created a need for diplomatic relations and intergovernmental communication and agreements.
They have also been catalysts for all forms of cross-border contacts including being a driving force for regionalisation. This is clearly
seen in Sino–ASEAN relations and the ASEAN+3 process, but also across the Taiwan Strait where it was part of the cause of the shift
in power in the 2008 elections. Together with the Chinese acceptance of multilateralism and its shift from big-power oriented foreign
policy to a focus on soft power and the building of good relations with China’s neighbours, EII has been essential for the medium to
longer-term overarching peace-building process in East Asia. In this context, what has been of particular importance for peace is both
the high degree of economic interdependence that has developed, as well as the forces of the pan-regional ‘economics first’ policy
focus. Here, the general acceptance of the ASEAN Way as the norm for diplomacy, with its emphasis on conflict avoidance, has
worked together with the economic incentives in preventing conflict escalations and building peace.
No East Asian war --- informal processes secure and maintain East Asian peace
Weissmann, 09 --- senior fellow at the Swedish School of Advanced Asia Pacific Studies (Mikael Weissmann, “Understanding the
East Asian Peace: Some Findings on the Role of Informal Processes,” Nordic Asia Research Community, November 2, 2009,
http://barha.asiaportal.info/blogs/in-focus/2009/november/understanding-east-asian-peace-some-findings-role-informal-processes-mi)
The findings concerning China’s role in keeping peace in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and on the Korean Peninsula
confirm the underlying hypothesis that various informal processes and related mechanisms can help explain the relative peace.
Virtually all of the identified processes and related mechanisms have been informal rather than formal. It should be noted that it is not
necessarily the same types of processes that have been of importance in each and every case. In different ways these informal
processes have demonstrated that the relative lack of formalised security structures and/or mechanisms have not prevented the region
from moving towards a stable peace. Informal processes have been sufficient both to prevent tension and disputes from
escalating into war and for moving East Asia towards a stable peace.
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AT: EBOLA 1/2
1. Ebola is all hype – no risk of mass death. Not only to key treatment measures exist now but research into it is heavily over
funded and there’s no risk of spread.
Fumento, 01 – author, journalist, photographer and attorney specializing in science and health issues – 2001 (Michael, “Hysteria
strain of Ebola Fever,”)
"There is a crisis brewing in the world that we ignore at our peril. The Ebola virus is back, and it’s spreading." So declared the
opening line of a December Business Week article: "Ebola Could Soon Be the West’s Problem, Too."
Soon? Ebola fever is already sweeping the West. But this pathogen is hysteria. And clearly initial infection confers no immunity,
because we’ve been through all this before. Five years ago, after an African epidemic in the Congo, the disease spawned the hit movie
Outbreak, with an Ebola-like virus threatening to wipe out the United States, and a TV movie, Virus, starring Ebola itself. CNN gave
us a special report, "The Apocalypse Bug," while Newsweek's cover blared: "Killer Virus." The death toll for the 1995 Congo
epidemic: 244. Too many? Yes. But not even a blip on the radar screen of African infectious disease. But the virus is back and so is
the media mayhem. Talk about an outbreak! From the apparent inception date of the current epidemic in Uganda last October 14th to
January 25th of this year, 427 Ebola cases have been reported with 173 deaths. During the same time there were over 1,900 media
references to the disease on the Nexis database. That’s 11 media mentions per fatality. And while the news is clearly exciting to
many of us, it’s also terribly misleading. Yes, Ebola is a gruesome disease. It causes massive hemorrhage of the internal organs, eyes,
and orifices. But a few facts can dispel a lot of fear. Ebola is not nearly as lethal as represented. While Garrett has put the figure as
"90-plus percent," the media boilerplate is "Ebola has a mortality rate as high as 90%." But how about as low as? According to a 1996
World Health Organization (WHO) document, the mortality range even back then was 50% to 90%. If the victims had first class
hospital care rather than 3rd World treatment, it would be far lower yet. Further, as treatments have improved, the death rate has
dropped. The ratio of deaths to cases in the current outbreak is 40%. Reporters try to circumvent this inconvenient reality with such
rhetoric as "There is no vaccination for Ebola. There is no cure." True. But the first sentence applies to most viruses, including those
causing colds and warts. The second applies to all viruses. That said, an Ebola vaccination has successfully protected monkeys, with
human testing coming soon. Ebola is also terribly difficult to spread. A news report in the Toronto Star claimed, "Ebola is
unspeakably evil, and as contagious as the common cold once it gains a foothold." Aside from pretending that tiny bits of protein have
the capacity to make moral decisions, the assertion as to transmissibility is flatly wrong. Colds are spread through touch and
aerosolized droplets, while Ebola is only "transmitted by direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or semen of infected
persons," according to WHO. That’s why those who contract the disease are so often health care workers or family members who
prepare the bodies for burial. Ms. Garrett and Business Week have both asserted that a single airline passenger could be a "patient
zero" for a Western epidemic. "It is only a matter of time before an infected person boards a plane and arrives in one of those countries
that pays little attention to Africa now," Business Week cluck-clucked. Wrong. "It's possible that someone with Ebola might leave a
remote area where the disease is occurring and might even get sick here," Dr. C.J. Peters, chief of the Special Pathogens branch at the
federal Centers for Disease Control told me. But, "Because our socioeconomic level allows high standards in hospitals . . . there would
be a few cases but they would be controllable under our circumstances." Ebola has as much chance of spreading in the North America
as malaria does in the Arctic. Finally, even in Africa, Ebola as an infectious disease killer is a pipsqueak. We hardly need be reminded
of the continent’s AIDS problem. But additionally each year sub-Saharan Africa suffers half a million deaths from tuberculosis, and
almost 700,000 from malaria. Diarrhea – often a laughing matter in First World countries – kills about 900,000. That’s not particularly
funny, is it? Clearly, some believe Ebola has tremendous entertainment value. But if you’re scared of the virus landing at JFK airport
and spreading throughout North America, you’re better off worrying about rabid polar bears in Miami. And if you’re concerned out of
sheer compassion, you should realize that money, researchers, and even worry are all scarce resources and that Ebola has gotten far
more than its share.
2. Transmission of Ebola is difficult – no risk of mass death.
Drogin, 95 – Los Angeles Times Writer – 1995(Bob, “Ebola Outbreak Continues in Kikwit; Further Spread Feared,” The Tech, 5-1695)
"WHO experts expect a significant increase in cases during the next two to three weeks among people who are incubating the disease
having been exposed to it in the care of relatives or neighbors," Leclair said.
He said the WHO still hopes that improved information about Ebola would eventually contain the spread of the disease. "In two or
three weeks we will have higher numbers but from that point it should start going down quite rapidly, but we have no way of
guaranteeing it," he said.
Earlier Moday, WHO spokesman Thomson Prentice said in Geneva that, even if Ebola were confirmed in the Zairian capital, that
wouldn't represent an acceleration of the epidemic.
"It would not be a great surprise if one case or more than one case occurred in Kinshasa," he said, adding: "It doesn't follow that more
people will get infected because transmission is quite difficult."
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Impact File 2.0
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AT: EBOLA 2/2
3. Effective and cheap vaccines for ebola are coming now – successful animal tests
Science Daily March 5, 2009: Experimental Vaccine protects animals from deadly Ebola virus; may prove effective in developing the
first human vaccine
Protection against Ebola, one of the world’s deadliest viruses, can be achieved by a vaccine produced in insect cells, raising prospects
for developing an effective vaccine for humans, say scientists at the Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research (SFBR) in San Antonio. “The
findings are significant in that the vaccine is not only extremely safe and effective, but it is also produced by a method already
established in the pharmaceutical industry,” says SFBR’s Ricardo Carrion, Ph.D., one of the primary authors of the study. “The ability to produce the
vaccine efficiently is attractive in that production can be scaled up quickly in the case of an emergency and doses can be produced
economically.” The new study was published in the January 2009 issue of the journal Virology, and was supported by the National Institutes of Health. Jean
Patterson, Ph.D., also of SFBR, participated in the research. Ebola viruses, which cause severe bleeding and a high fatality rate in up to 90 percent of patients, have no
effective treatment or vaccine. Since its first identification in Africa in 1987, Ebola outbreaks have caused some 1,800 human infections and 1,300 deaths. Outbreaks
have become increasingly frequent in recent years, and are likely to be caused by contact with infected animals followed by spread among humans through close
person-to-person contacts. Ebola viruses cause acute infection in humans, usually within four to 10 days. Symptoms include headache, chill, muscle pain, followed by
weight loss, delirium shock, massive bleeding and organ failure leading to death in two to three weeks. Ebola viruses are considered a dangerous threat to public health
because of their high fatality rate, ability to transmit person-to-person, and low lethal infectious dose. Moreover, their potential to be developed into biological weapons
causes grave concern for their use as a bioterrorism agent. While some vaccines show protection in non-human primate studies, the strategies used may not be
uniformly effective in the general human population due to pre-existing immunity to the virus-based vaccines. In the new study, a vaccine using Ebola viruslike particles (VLPs) was produced in insect cells using traditional bio-engineering techniques and injected into laboratory mice. A VLP
vaccine is based upon proteins produced in the laboratory that assemble into a particle that, to the human immune system, looks like the virus but cannot cause disease.
Two high-dose VLP immunizations produced a high level immune response in mice. And when the twice-immunized mice were given
a lethal dose of Ebola virus, they were completely protected from the disease. In contrast, mice that were not immunized had a very
low immune system response and became infected. In another experiment, a three low-dose VLP immunization effectively boosted
immune system response in mice and protected them against the Ebola virus. This finding is important because it demonstrates that
since the vaccine produces immunization in dilute quantities, many more vaccine doses can be generated compared with a poorly
immunogenic vaccine. VLPs are attractive candidates for vaccine development because they lack viral genomic material and thus are
not infectious, are safe for broad application, and can be administered repeatedly to vaccinated individuals to boost immune responses.
4. Alt cause + no harms: The root cause of ebola will be solved – gorillas are being vaccinated.
News-Medical.net, 2007 (“Controlling impact of Ebola - new vaccines could control impact of Ebola on wild apes,” 4-18-07,
http://www.news-medical.net/?id=23673)
Why have large outbreaks of Ebola virus killed tens of thousands of gorillas and chimpanzees over the last decade? Observations
published in the May issue of The American Naturalist provide new clues, suggesting that outbreaks may be amplified by Ebola
transmission between ape social groups.
The study provides hope that newly developed vaccines could control the devastating impact of Ebola on wild apes.
Direct encounters between gorilla or chimpanzee social groups are rare. Therefore, when reports of large ape die-offs first surfaced in
the late 1990s, outbreak amplification was assumed to be through "massive spillover" from some unknown reservoir host. The new
study, conducted by researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Cambridge University, and Stony
Brook University at three sites in northern Republic of Congo, suggests that Ebola transmission between ape groups might occur
through routes other than direct social encounter. For instance, as many as four different gorilla groups fed in the same fruit tree on a
single day. Thus, infective body fluids deposited by one group might easily be encountered by a subsequent group. Chimpanzees and
gorillas also fed simultaneously in the same fruit tree at least once every seven days.
The study also provided the first evidence that gorillas from one social group closely inspect the carcasses of gorillas from other
groups. Contact with corpses at funerals is a major mechanism of Ebola transmission in humans. Together with other recent
observations on patterns of gorilla mortality, these results make a strong case that transmission between ape social groups plays a
central role in Ebola outbreak amplification.
The study has important implications for controlling the impact of Ebola, which has killed roughly one quarter of the world gorilla
population. "It means that vaccinating one gorilla does not protect only that gorilla, it also protects gorillas further down the
transmission chain," said Peter Walsh of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, the lead author on the study. "Thus,
protecting remaining ape populations may not require vaccinating a high proportion of individuals, as many people naively assume."
Walsh and collaborators are currently searching for funding to implement a vaccination program using one of the several vaccines that
have now successfully protected laboratory monkeys from Ebola.
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AT: ECONOMY 1/2
The economy is resilient – GDP, employment, personal income, and inflation prove. Prefer our evidence, it assumes skeptics
that don’t put the economy into perspective.
Hamilton, CEO, Sageworks Inc., 9 Brian, January, Texas Society of Certified Public Accountants, “The United States Will be Just Fine”, http://www.tscpa.org/Currents/EconomyCommentary.asp
There is probably something in humans and in every generation that makes us think that the problems we face are uniquely difficult. Much has been written
about the economy and, if you accept certain assumptions from what you read, you might think that we are in the midst of a global
depression. Yet, it is important to put the current economy in perspective. We might even try reviewing and analyzing some objective data. Last
quarter, GDP fell at a rate of 0.5%, which means that the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. fell by a half of one percentage point last quarter
over the previous quarter. (1) For the first two quarters of this year, GDP grew by 0.9% and 2.8%, indicating that economic growth is
relatively flat this year, but that it is not falling off a cliff. This isn’t the first time GDP has fallen and it won’t be the last. A
decrease in GDP after almost 6 years of increases is not positive, but almost predictable. No economy grows indefinitely and
consistently; there are always temporary lapses. In fact, if you consider the media coverage of the economy over the past year and the consequent way
people have been scared, it is remarkable that anyone is buying anything. Some would say that we cannot only look at GDP, so let’s look at other factors. Interest
rates remain at historically low levels. (2) This means that if you want to borrow money, you can borrow money inexpensively as a bus iness or as a person. Loan
volume in the country, according to the FDIC and contrary to what you read about the credit crisis, actually increased last quarter compared to the same quarter last
year. (3) Someone is getting loans and they are not paying excessive interest rates for them. How about employment? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
unemployment sits at 6.7%. At this time last year, unemployment was 4.7%. The decrease in employment is not favorable, but historically an
unemployment rate of 6.7% is not close to devastating. The 50-year historical rate of unemployment is 5.97%. (4) Most economists agree that the natural rate
of unemployment, which is the lowest rate due to the fact that people change jobs or are between jobs, is around 4%. So, today we
sit at 2.7% above that rate. Once again, the very recent trend is not good but it is certainly not horrifying. I have noticed many
recent media references to the Great Depression (the period of time between late 1929 and around 1938 or so, depending upon the definitions used and
personal inclinations). It might be illuminating to note that by 1933, during the height of the Depression, the unemployment rate was 24.9%.
During that same time period, GDP was falling dramatically, which created a devastating impact on the country. Americans have good
hearts and empathize (as they should) with those who are unemployed, yet it would be easy to go too far in our assumptions on how the working population is
currently affected in aggregate. If 6% of the people are unemployed, approximately 94% of the people are working. We should always shoot for full employment,
but why would we view our efforts as poor when we don’t quite make that mark? A good student might try to get straight A’s, but getting an occasional “B” or “C”
won’t end the world. Look at personal income today Personal income is income received by individuals from all sources, including employers and the
government. Personal income rose last quarter compared to a year ago according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Compared to five years ago,
personal income has risen by 32.1% . Even considering that inflation was 18.13% over this period, people are generally making more money than they used to.
This is another one of those statistics that can easily get bent to fit a story. You often hear things like “personal income fell last
month by 23%”, but writers tend to leave larger and more important statistics out. In this case, wouldn’t you be more interested in
trends over a quarter or a year? using isolated statistics to fit your view is something that has become accepted and rarely
challenged. Next, there is inflation The inflation rate measures the strength of the dollar you hold today as compared to a year ago. The inflation rate is
currently 3.66%. Over the past 50 years, the inflation rate has averaged about 4.2% . Inflation remains well within control. Yet,
would you be surprised to read a story next month citing an X% jump in inflation over the last day, month? I wouldn’t be.
(Ironically, the one thing about the economy that is alarming from a historical standpoint is our national debt, which gets some but not enough media coverage. We
now owe $10.6 trillion and have become a debtor nation over the past several decades. We now depend on the goodwill and investments of outside countries, while
we continue to spend more than we make). Now, the skeptics reading this will undoudebtly point to other (I believe, far lesser) statistics that
validate their gloomy view of the economy and the direction of the country. I ask the reader: if people are employed, are making good wages,
can borrow inexpensively, hold a dollar that is worth largely what it was worth a year or five years ago, and live in a country where the value of goods and services
is rising, tell me exactly where the crisis is? There is no doubt that the economy has slowed, but slowness does not equal death. It is true
that the financial markets are a mess (and the depreciation of the value of equities is both scary and bad), but analysts typically go too far in
ascribing the fall of the financial markets with the fall of a whole economy. The markets are an important component of the
economy, but the markets are not the totality of the economy. No one can say whether conditions will worsen in the future. However, we have
learned that the United States economy has been tremendously resilient over the past 200 years and will probably remain so , as long as
the structural philosophies that it has been built upon are left intact. Americans are hard-working and innovative people and the country will be just fine.
2. Economic decline doesn’t cause war
Ferguson 6 Niall, Professor of History @ Harvard, The Next War of the World, Foreign Affairs 85.5, Proquest
There are many unsatisfactory explanations for why the twentieth century was so destructive. One is the assertion that the availability of
more powerful weapons caused bloodier conflicts. But there is no correlation between the sophistication of military technology and the lethality of conflict. Some of the worst violence of
the century -- the genocides in Cambodia in the 1970s and central Africa in the 1990s, for instance -- was perpetrated with the crudest of weapons: rifles, axes, machetes, and knives.
Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in modern historiography links the Great
Depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II. But that simple story leaves too much out. Nazi Germany started the
war in Europe only after its economy had recovered. Not all the countries affected by the Great Depression were taken over by
fascist regimes, nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression. In fact, no general relationship between economics and
conflict is discernible for the century as a whole. Some wars came after periods of growth, others were the causes rather than the
consequences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises were not followed by wars.
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3. IMF checks
Business Week 2010 (7/19, IMF to Seek $250 Billion Boost to Lending Capacity, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-19/imf-to-seek-250-billion-boostto-lending-capacity.html, WEA)
July 19 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund is seeking a boost in its lending capacity to $1 trillion, from the current $750 billion, at a
Group of 20 summit in South Korea in November, according to a Korean government official. The increase would help strengthen a global financial
safety net to counter crises, the official said on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. South Korea is chair of the G-20 this year. IMF Managing
Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told the Financial Times that a boost to $1 trillion in IMF lending firepower was a “correct forecast.” Strauss-Kahn has sought
to enhance the IMF’s role in serving as a buttress against financial crises, already overseeing a trebling in the fund’s war-chest to $750
billion since early 2009. While the IMF doesn’t foresee the global economy sinking back into a recession, the European debt crisis and
elevated U.S. unemployment threaten to curtail the recovery. “They will have to increase the lending capacity over time to contain a crisis
more effectively,” said Ham Joon-Ho, a professor of international economics and finance at Yonsei University in Seoul. Ham added that the IMF will also need to work
to encourage members to line up contingency financing with the fund, which most have steered clear of given concern such a step would carry the “stigma” of signaling
financial trouble.
Takes out their impact—it’s a financial safety net
AFP 2010 (7/19, IMF to boost lending resources: report, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hixr2M_Qx1JQRsMvvAlU1RwLPiwD9H2AAR80, WEA)
SEOUL — The International Monetary Fund is seeking to boost its lending resources from 750 to 1,000 billion dollars to better handle future
financial crises, a report said Monday. The Financial Times, citing IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said the bigger credit lines should be
used to help prevent, rather than address, crises. "Even when not in a time of crisis, a big fund, likely to intervene massively, is something that can
help prevent crises," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told the Financial Times. "Just because the financing role decreases, doesn't mean we don't
need to have huge firepower... a 1,000 billion dollar fund is a correct forecast," he said. The Financial Times said the IMF wants to agree financing deals in advance that
will be specially tailored to individual countries, rather than respond to crises with conditional loan packages. The aim would be to cool market nervousness
over any nation facing an imminent liquidity crunch, the paper said. Strauss-Kahn was in South Korea -- which chairs the Group of 20 leading economies this year -last week to attend a conference. South Korea's presidential panel for the Group of 20 leading economies, confirmed it was cooperating with the IMF to
work out a better safety net.
4. The fed will prevent economic collapse
Washington Post 7/21/2010: Bernanke says Fed would act if necessary to boost economy. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/politicaleconomy/2010/07/bernanke_says_fed_would_act_if.html
The Federal Reserve would take action if necessary to keep the economic recovery on track, its chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said
Wednesday. Yet he expressed confidence that the expansion continues. It was the first public acknowledgment by Bernanke that the
agency could take more policy steps if the economic recovery continues to disappoint. In his semi-annual testimony on monetary
policy to the Senate Banking Committee, he gave a dual message: cautious optimism about growth and recognition that risks that the
recovery will falter have risen in recent months. Even as the Fed continues "prudent planning" for how to exit its steps to support the
economy, "we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain," Bernanke said in prepared testimony. "We
remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation's productive potential in a
context of price stability." Bernanke did not say what policy actions he had in mind, but potential steps include cutting the interest rate
paid on bank reserves, reaffirming the Fed's promise to keep short-term interest rates low for the foreseeable future, or buying enough
mortgage securities to replace those that are paid off. If the economy appeared at serious risk of returning to a recession, the Fed
would consider large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds or mortgage-related securities to try to head off another crisis.
5. American economic slowdown won’t bring down the rest of the globe
The Economist, February 4, 2006 “Testing all engines,” p. http://www-personal.umich.edu/~kathrynd/WorldEconomy.Feb06.pdf
Alongside stronger domestic demand in Europe and Japan, emerging economies are also tipped to remain robust. These economies are
popularly perceived as excessively export-dependent, flooding the world with cheap goods, but doing little to boost demand. Yet
calculations by Goldman Sachs show that Brazil, Russia, India and China combined have in recent years contributed more to the
world’s domestic demand than to its GDP growth. They have chipped in almost as much to global domestic demand as America has.
If this picture endures, a moderate slowdown in America need not halt the expansion in the rest of the world. Europe and Japan
together account for a bigger slice of global GDP than the United States, so faster growth there will help to keep the global economy
flying. A rebalancing of demand away from America to the rest of the world would also help to shrink its huge current-account deficit.
This all assumes that America’s economy slows, rather than sinks into recession. The world is undoubtedly better placed to cope with
a slowdown in the United States than it was a few years ago. That said, in those same few years America’s imbalances have become
larger, with the risk that the eventual correction will be more painful. A deep downturn in America would be felt all around the globe.
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EXT #1 – ECON RESILIENT
The economy is very resilient
Investors Chronicle, 9 June 15, “The indestructible US economy”, LexisNexis
ECONOMICS: The US non-financial economy is doing very well in the face of disaster. Isn't it amazing how resilient the US
non-financial economy is? This sounds like a silly thing to say during the worst recession since the 1930s. But it's the message that
comes out of the latest flow of funds figures published by the Federal Reserve. This show that, in effect, the financial system
ceased to exist in the first quarter. For the first time since records began in 1952, the financial sector became a net borrower from
the rest of the economy during this time. Before the crisis, its net lending was over a third of GDP. This retrenchment, as my chart
shows, is wholly unprecedented. The natural effect of the closure of the financial system has been to increase the aggregate
savings of the rest of the economy. The reason for this is simple. Some households and companies that wanted to borrow have
been unable to do. Whereas in normal times, their borrowing would have dragged down aggregate savings, this is no longer
happening. So simple arithmetic means aggegate savings ratios have risen. However, the turnarounds here are relatively small.
Households saved 4.4 per cent of their disposable income in Q1. Yes, this is well up from the minus 0.7 per cent recorded at the
pow point in Q3 of 2005. But it's still quite low by historic standards; before the mid-90s, the savings ratio was typically twice this.
The increase in corporate savings has been smaller. At its trough in 2007Q3, non-farm non-financial firms' net financial investment
(the gap between retained funds and capital spending) was minus 1.6 per cent of GDP. In Q1 it was 2.4 per cent of GDP - though
this was the highest ratio since 1953. There's a simple reason why these changes have been small. Most spending, by companies
or households, has traditionally been financed internally, by income or retained profits. Equally, much of the financial system's
lending was between financial firms. It was, if you want, like a casino with few links to the outside economy. With behavioural
changes relatively small, another remarkable fact makes sense - that corporate profits have held up well. Fed figures show that, in
Q1, non-financial firms' pre-tax profits were 5.1 per cent of their tangible assets. Though this is well down from the cyclical peak
of 9 per cent reached back in 2006, it is above 2003's levels, and above mid-80s levels. Judged by the ability of non-financial
firms to generate profits - which in a capitalist economy is the most important metric of all - the US economy is doing better now
than it was at the height of the Reagan era, with all the triumphalism that surrounded it. None of this, of course, is to deny
the reality that the US economy is in deep trouble. A big reason for the resilience of profits, of course, is that the pain of the crisis
is being borne by workers; the unemployment rate, at 9.4 per cent, is at its highest since 1983. But in a capitalist economy, it's
profits that matter, not people. My point is simply that non-financial corporate America is surviving one of the greatest economic
disasters in history remarkably well. In this sense, capitalism is still surprisingly healthy.
Econ resilient
Associated Press, Wednesday, January 23, 2008 “Rice Says US Economy Resilient” http://origin2.foxnews.com/wires/2008Jan23/0,4670,WorldEconomicForumRice,00.html
Her remarks came after two days of wild market swings worldwide and the surprise Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Tuesday
lowered its benchmark rate to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent in between regular policy-setting meetings."I know that many are
concerned by the recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, and by concerns about the U.S. economy," she said. "President
Bush has announced an outline of a meaningful fiscal growth package that will boost consumer spending and support business
investment this year."She said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who canceled his own visit to the World Economic Forum
annual meeting at the last minute, was "leading our administration's efforts and working closely with the leaders of both parties in
Congress to agree on a stimulus package that is swift, robust, broad-based, and temporary."The U.S. economy is "resilient, its
structure sound, and its long-term economic fundamentals are healthy," Rice said. "And our economy will remain a leading engine
of global economic growth," she added."So we should have confidence in the underlying strength of the global economy _ and act
with confidence on the basis of the principles that lead to success in today's world."
Empirically, the economy is resilient – no risk of a downturn
Michael Dawson, US Treasury Deputy Secretary for Critical Infrastructure Protection and Compliance Policy, January 8, 2004 Remarks at the Conference on Protecting the Financial
Sector and Cyber Security Risk Management, “Protecting the Financial Sector from Terrorism and Other Threats,” http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js1091.htm
The American economy is resilient. Over the past few years, we have seen that resilience
first hand, as the American economy withstood a significant fall in equity prices, an economic recession, the terrorist attacks of
September 11, corporate governance scandals, and the power outage of August 14-15. There are many reasons for the resilience of the
American economy. Good policies – like the President’s Jobs and Growth Initiative – played an important part. So has the resilience of the American
people. One of the reasons are economy is so resilient is that our people are so tough, so determined to protect our way of life. Like the
economy as a whole, the American financial system is resilient. For example, the financial system performed extraordinarily well
during the power outage last August. With one exception, the bond and major equities and futures markets were open the next day at their regular trading
Fortunately, we are starting from a very strong base.
hours. Major market participants were also well prepared, having invested in contingency plans, procedures, and equipment such as backup power generators. The U.S.
financial sector withstood this historic power outage without any reported loss or corruption of any customer data. This resilience mitigates the economic
risks of terrorist attacks and other disruptions, both to the financial system itself and to the American economy as a whole.
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EXT #2 – DOESN’T CAUSE WAR
Empirical studies show no causal relationship between economic decline and war
Miller 1 Morris, Professor of Economics, Poverty: A Cause of War?, http://archive.peacemagazine.org/v17n1p08.htm
Library shelves are heavy with studies focused on the correlates and causes of war. Some of the leading scholars in that field
suggest that we drop the concept of causality, since it can rarely be demonstrated. Nevertheless, it may be helpful to look at the
motives of war-prone political leaders and the ways they have gained and maintained power, even to the point of leading their
nations to war. Poverty: The Prime Causal Factor? Poverty is most often named as the prime causal factor. Therefore we approach
the question by asking whether poverty is characteristic of the nations or groups that have engaged in wars. As we shall see,
poverty has never been as significant a factor as one would imagine. Largely this is because of the traits of the poor as a group
- particularly their tendency to tolerate their suffering in silence and/or be deterred by the force of repressive regimes. Their
voicelessness and powerlessness translate into passivity. Also, because of their illiteracy and ignorance of worldly affairs, the
poor become susceptible to the messages of war-bent demagogues and often willing to become cannon fodder. The situations
conductive to war involve political repression of dissidents, tight control over media that stir up chauvinism and ethnic prejudices,
religious fervor, and sentiments of revenge. The poor succumb to leaders who have the power to create such conditions for their
own self-serving purposes. Desperately poor people in poor nations cannot organize wars, which are exceptionally costly. The
statistics speak eloquently on this point. In the last 40 years the global arms trade has been about $1500 billion, of which twothirds were the purchases of developing countries. That is an amount roughly equal to the foreign capital they obtained through
official development aid (ODA). Since ODA does not finance arms purchases (except insofar as money that is not spent by a
government on aid-financed roads is available for other purposes such as military procurement) financing is also required to
control the media and communicate with the populace to convince them to support the war. Large-scale armed conflict is so
expensive that governments must resort to exceptional sources, such as drug dealing, diamond smuggling, brigandry, or dealmaking with other countries. The reliance on illicit operations is well documented in a recent World Bank report that studied 47
civil wars that took place between 1960 and 1999, the main conclusion of which is that the key factor is the availability of
commodities to plunder. For greed to yield war, there must be financial opportunities. Only affluent political leaders and elites
can amass such weaponry, diverting funds to the military even when this runs contrary to the interests of the population. In most
inter-state wars the antagonists were wealthy enough to build up their armaments and propagandize or repress to gain acceptance
for their policies. Economic Crises? Some scholars have argued that it is not poverty, as such, that contributes to the support for
armed conflict, but rather some catalyst, such as an economic crisis. However, a study by Minxin Pei and Ariel Adesnik shows that
this hypothesis lacks merit. After studying 93 episodes of economic crisis in 22 countries in Latin American and Asia since
World War II, they concluded that much of the conventional thinking about the political impact of economic crisis is wrong: "The
severity of economic crisis - as measured in terms of inflation and negative growth - bore no relationship to the collapse of regimes
... or (in democratic states, rarely) to an outbreak of violence... In the cases of dictatorships and semi-democracies, the ruling elites
responded to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another)."
An economic depression does not cause war
Lloyd deMause, director of The Institute for Psychohistory, “Nuclear War as an Anti-Sexual Group Fantasy” Updated December 18th
2002, http://www.geocities.com/kidhistory/ja/nucsex.htm
The nation "turns inward" during this depressed phase of the cycle. Empirical studies have clearly demonstrated that major economic
downswings are accompanied by "introverted" foreign policy moods, characterized by fewer armed expeditions, less interest in
foreign affairs in the speeches of leaders, reduced military expenditures, etc. (Klingberg, 1952; Holmes, 1985). Just as depressed
people experience little conscious rage--feeling "I deserve to be killed" rather than "I want to kill others" (Fenichel, 1945, p. 393)-interest in military adventures during the depressed phase wanes, arms expeditures decrease and peace treaties multiply.
No impact – collapse is slow and the economy will have recovered by the time war begins
Bruce Russett, Dean Acheson Professor of International Relations and Political Science at Yale University, December 1983
International Studies Quarterly, v27 n4, “Prosperity and Peace: Presidential Address,” http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=00208833%28198312%2927%3A4%3C381%3APAPPA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V, p. 384
The ‘optimism’ argument seems strained to me, but elements of Blainey’s former thesis, about the need to mobilize resources before
war can be begun, are more plausible, especially in the 20th century. Modern wars are fought by complex organizations, with complex
and expensive weapons. It takes time to design and build the weapons that military commanders will require, and it takes time to train
the troops who must use them. Large bureaucracies must plan and obtain some consensus on those plans; and even in a dictatorship
the populace in general must be prepared, with clear images of who are their enemies and of the cause that will justify war with them.
In short, preparations for war take time. Just how long a lag we should expect to find between an economic downturn and subsequent
war initiation is unclear. But surely it will be more than a year or two, and war may well occur only after the economy is recovering.
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EXT #3 AND 4 – SAFEGUARDS PREVENT
Safeguards prevent a depression
Atlanta Journal Constitution, November 17th 2002
In place now are regulatory agencies, stock market safeguards and social safety nets that did not exist in the 1930s to cushion the
Depression's impact. They exist now because of what happened in the '30s.
No one says "it can't happen again," but most strategists believe another depression is improbable.
"If you look at the world economy, at stock valuations and earnings, the chances we will continue to spiral down as in the 1930s are
pretty slim," says SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Gary Tapp. "The government isn't likely to make the major policy mistakes
that we had then."
Different Fed strategy
This time, the Federal Reserve has gone to the opposite extreme from its policies during a comparable period of the 1930s. It has
lowered interest rates a dozen times over two years and increased the money supply to stimulate the sluggish economy. In the '30s, the
conventional wisdom held that government intervention was not necessary to right a weak economy.
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EXT #5 – U.S. NOT KEY TO GLOBAL ECON
U.S. isn’t key to the global economy
Kohn 2008 – PhD in economics from Michigan, Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System, Vice Chairman of the Fed(Donald, speech at the
International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, “Global Economic Integration and Decoupling”,
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20080626a.htm, WEA)
What about our more recent experience? During the first three quarters of 2007, the U.S. economy was growing at a solid pace of about 3 percent
at an annual rate. Over the next two quarters, U.S. growth slowed to an average of about 3/4 percent, while growth in other industrialized countries
stayed much closer to trend rates at about 2-1/2 percent, and growth in the emerging market economies, at 6-1/2 percent, held up quite well. It is
important to keep in mind, however, that we are still in the midst of the current episode. Financial markets remain stressed; housing markets in many
countries are adjusting after a sharp run-up in prices; and the effects of the turmoil on economic activity in the United States and elsewhere are still working themselves
out. Accordingly, it is too early to tell how correlated U.S. and foreign activity will have been in this period. One piece of research on business cycles in G-7
economies, done by staff at the Federal Reserve Board, shows how difficult it is to establish with any confidence that business cycles have
become more synchronized in recent decades, despite trade and financial integration having clearly increased.11 Other research, which shows a modest
convergence of business cycles across a larger group of industrial economies, fails to find an increase in the correlation of industrial country cycles
with emerging market economy cycles.12 The other dimension of recent linkages is financial, where the evidence is clearer. First, few question the importance
of financial linkages between the United States and other industrial economies, which is an area where decoupling clearly has not occurred during the recent
episode. While industrial country markets for stocks and bonds have displayed a high degree of co-movement for years, in the current
episode we are seeing notable new correlations across money markets, with disruptions in funding markets showing up in the euro area,
Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Canada, as well as in the United States. Some of the effects of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on financial markets in these
countries occurred as a result of direct or indirect balance sheet exposures by their financial institutions to U.S. securities. Other adverse consequences for foreign
financial institutions occurred when entire markets, such as that for asset-backed commercial paper, became impaired. In contrast, some have pointed to the
apparent resilience of financial conditions in emerging market economies during the past year as an example of decoupling. In particular, the
disruptions in the advanced economies have had only limited impacts on money markets in emerging market economies, and other financial market
indicators in emerging market economies appear to have held up relatively well. For example, the spreads of emerging market sovereign bond yields over U.S. Treasury
securities have risen since June of last year, but by only about 1/3 of the rise in the average U.S. corporate high-yield spread over U.S. Treasury securities. That rise is
roughly half the average in several previous episodes of pressure on U.S. corporate bond prices over the period from 1998 to 2005; these episodes include, among
others, the Russian and Long-Term Capital Management crisis of 1998, the 2002 surge in corporate defaults and bankruptcies, and growing concerns about U.S. auto
companies in 2005. In addition, while stock prices in some emerging market countries have not performed well, a broad aggregate for these
markets shows stock prices up over the past year, while the advanced economy indexes have exhibited double-digit declines, on
average.13 Certainly, stock prices in the emerging market economies moved downward during acute periods of U.S. financial stress over the past year. However, these
movements were similar in scale to those seen in industrial country equity markets, and during the intervening periods when global pressures were less intense, the
prices of emerging market equities rebounded more substantially than those of industrial countries.
America no longer drives the global economy – Asian economies will fill in
The Economist, February 4, 2006 “Testing all engines,” p. Lexis
American consumers have been the main engine not just of their own economy but of the whole world’s. If that engine fails, will the
global economy nose-dive? A few years ago, the answer would probably have been yes. But the global economy may now be less
vulnerable. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Jim O’Neill, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, argued
convincingly that a slowdown in America need not lead to a significant global loss of power. Start with Japan, where industrial output
jumped by an annual rate of 11% in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for that quarter (the official
number is due on February 17th) to an annualised 4.2%. That would push year-on-year growth to 3.9%, well ahead of America’s
3.1%. The bank predicts average GDP growth in Japan this year of 2.7%. It thinks strong demand within Asia will partly offset an
American slowdown.
U.S. Economy not key to the global economy
The International Herald Tribune, March 6, 2002, p. 11
Weinberg contends that U.S. consumption of the world's products no longer has the power to sway global economies the way it did in
the past. "The decline in U.S. imports from their peak to their apparent trough in this business cycle will add up to only a few tenths
of a percent of world GDP," Weinberg argues. "By reversing the logic, the case can be made that the U.S. economic recovery -- the
one that people in the rest of the world now perceive as having begun -- will not boost the economies in Europe and Asia by more
than the same few tenths of a percent that the slowdown subtracted." Weinberg believes that once the current stock market rally
subsides, sober minds will turn again to the individual factors underpinning the economies around the world. In Europe, he sees an
eventual recognition that the slowdown was caused by a drop in real incomes over the past two years and that the problem will need
its own solution, regardless of U.S. growth. In Japan, some insist that the stock- market spree was inspired more by investors covering
positions after the government changed the rules on short-selling than by genuine expectations that the United States will dig Japan
out of its rut. As Weinberg puts it: "Over the last 12 years, Japan's economy has managed to contract almost continuously as the
United States swung from recession to prosperity."
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AT: ECON KEY TO HEG
Economic decline doesn’t kill heg—American leadership is unique and their predictions have been denied for decades
Blackwill 2009 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning
(Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)
First, the United States, five years from today. Did
the global recession weaken the political will of the United States to , over the long term, defend its
external interests? Many analysts are already forecasting a “yes” to this question. As a result of what they see as the international loss of faith in the American market economy model
and in U.S. leadership, they assert that Washington’s influence in international affairs is bound to recede, indeed is already diminishing. For some, the wish is the father
of this thought. But where is the empirical evidence? From South Asia, through relations with China and Russia through the Middle East peace process,
through dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and North Korea’s nuclear weaponization and missile activities, through confronting humanitarian crises in Africa
and instability in Latin America, the United States has the unchallenged diplomatic lead. Who could charge the Obama Administration with diplomatic
passivity since taking office? Indeed, one could instead conclude that the current global economic turbulence is causing countries to seek the familiar and to rely more and not less on their
American connection. In any event, foreigners (and some Americans) often underestimate the existential resilience of the United States . In this respect, George
Friedman’s new book, The Next Hundred Years,14 and his view that the United States will be as dominant a force in the 21st century as it was in the last half of the 20th century, is worth
considering. So once again, those who now predict, as they have in every decade since 1945, American decay and withdrawal will be wrong
15— from John Flynn’s 1955 The Decline of the American Republic and How to Rebuild It,16 to Paul Kennedy’s 1987 The Rise and Fall of Great Powers,17 to Andrew Bacevich’s 2008 The
Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism,18 to Godfrey Hodgson’s 2009 The Myth of American Exceptionalism19 and many dozens of similar books in between. Indeed, the
policies of the Obama Administration, for better or worse, are likely to be far more influential and lasting regarding America’s longer-term geopolitical power projection than the present
economic decline. To sum up regarding the United States and the global economic worsening, former Council on Foreign Relations President Les Gelb, in his new book, Power Rules: How
Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy,20 insists that a nation’s
power is what it always was—essentially the capacity to get people to do what they don’t want to do,
shape of global power is decidedly pyramidal—with the United
by pressure and coercion, using one’s resources and position. . . . The world is not flat. . . . The
States alone at the top, a second tier of major countries (China, Japan, India, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Brazil), and several tiers descending
below. . . . Among all nations, only the United States is a true global power with global reach. Lee Kuan Yew, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Singapore, agrees: “ After the
crisis, the US is most likely to remain at the top of every key index of national power for decades . It will remain the dominant global player for the
next few decades. No major issue concerning international peace and stability can be resolved without US leadership, and no country or grouping can yet replace America as the dominant
global power.”21 The current global economic crisis will
because China and India have adopted their own versions of it.
not alter this reality. And the capitalist market model will continue to dominate international economics, not least
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AT: ECOSYSTEMS
1. The environment is resilient- it has withstood ridiculous amounts of destruction
Easterbrook 95, Distinguished Fellow, Fullbright Foundation
(Gregg, A Moment on Earth pg 25) MI
IN THE AFTERMATH OF EVENTS SUCH AS LOVE CANAL OR THE Exxon Valdez oil spill, every reference to the environment
is prefaced with the adjective "fragile." "Fragile environment" has become a welded phrase of the modern lexicon, like "aging hippie" or "fugitive financier." But the notion of a
fragile environment is profoundly wrong. Individual animals, plants, and people are distressingly fragile. The environment that contains them is close to indestructible.
The living environment of Earth has survived ice ages; bombardments of cosmic radiation more deadly than atomic fallout; solar
radiation more powerful than the worst-case projection for ozone depletion; thousand-year periods of intense volcanism releasing
global air pollution far worse than that made by any factory; reversals of the planet's magnetic poles; the rearrangement of continents;
transformation of plains into mountain ranges and of seas into plains; fluctuations of ocean currents and the jet stream; 300-foot
vacillations in sea levels; shortening and lengthening of the seasons caused by shifts in the planetary axis; collisions of asteroids and
comets bearing far more force than man's nuclear arsenals; and the years without summer that followed these impacts. Yet hearts
beat on, and petals unfold still. Were the environment
fragile it would have expired many eons before the advent of the industrial affronts of the dreaming ape. Human assaults on the environment,
though mischievous, are pinpricks compared to forces of the magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting.
2. Environmental threats exaggerated
Gordon 95 - a professor of mineral economics at Pennsylvania State University
[Gordon, Richard, “Ecorealism Exposed,” Regulation, 1995,
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv18n3/reg18n3-readings.html
Easterbrook's argument is that although environmental problems deserve attention, the environmental movement has exaggerated the threats
and ignored evidence of improvement. His discontent causes him to adopt and incessantly employ the pejoratively intended (and irritating) shorthand "enviros" to describe the
leading environmental organizations and their admirers. He proposes-and overuses-an equally infelicitous alternative phrase, "ecorealism," that seems to mean that most environmental
initiatives can be justifited by more moderate arguments. Given the mass, range, and defects of the book, any review of reasonable length must be selective.
Easterbrook's critique begins with an overview of environmentalism from a global perspective. He then turns to a much longer (almost 500- page) survey of many specific environmental
issues. The overview section is a shorter, more devastating criticism, but it is also more speculative than the survey of specific issues. In essence, the overview argument is that human
impacts on the environment are minor, easily correctable influences on a world affected by far more powerful forces . That is a more
penetrating criticism than typically appears in works expressing skepticism about environmentalism. Easterbrook notes that mankind's effects on nature long predate
industrialization or the white colonization of America, but still have had only minor impacts . We are then reminded of the vast, often
highly destructive changes that occur naturally and the recuperative power of natural systems .
3. overpoopulation makes the impact inevitable
Herald, The (UK) 1/20/04
[The world population awareness website, The Herald] The Earth's Life-support System is in Peril - a Global Crisis.
http://www.overpopulation.org/impact.html]
The Earth's Life-support System is in Peril - a Global Crisis. Our planet is changing and many environmental indicators have moved outside their range of the past half-million years. If we
Life expectancy and standards of living have increased for many,
but the population has grown to six billion, and continues to grow. The global economy has increased 15-fold since 1950 and this
progress has begun to affect the planet and how it functions. For example, the increase in CO2 is 100 PPM and growing. During the
1990's, the average area of tropical forest cleared each year was equivalent to half the area of England. The impacts of global change
are complex, as they combine with regional environmental stresses. Coral reefs, which were under stress from fishing, tourism and
pollutants, are now under pressure from carbonate chemistry in ocean surface waters from the increase in CO2. The wildfires that hit
the world last year were a result of land management, ignition sources and extreme local weather probably linked to climate change.
Poor access to fresh water is expected to nearly double with population growth. Biodiversity losses, will be exacerbated by climate
change. Beyond 2050, regional climate change, could have huge consequences. The Earth has entered the Anthropocene Era in which humans are a
dominating environmental force. Global environmental change challenges the political decision-making process and will have to be based on risks that events will happen, or
cannot develop policies to cope with this, the consequences may be huge. We have made progress.
scenarios will unfold. Global environmental change is often gradual until critical thresholds are passed. Some rapid changes such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet would be irreversible
in any meaningful timescale, while other changes may be unstoppable. We know that there are risks of rapid and irreversible changes to which it would be difficult to adapt.
Incremental change will not prevent climate change, water depletion, deforestation or biodiversity loss. Breakthroughs in technologies and resource management that will affect economic
sectors and lifestyles are required. International frameworks are essential for addressing global change. Never before has a multilateral system been more necessary. Will we accept the
challenge or wait until a catastrophic, irreversible change is upon us?
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AT: EGYPTIAN INSTABILITY 1/2
1. Alternate causes to political instability—
A. Climate Change
Carbon Control News in ‘7 (“In The Air”, 4-23, L/N)
Participants of the teleconference, sponsored by the National Environmental Trust, also pointed to a recent report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) which predicted the climate change effects on economically vulnerable regions of the world. Participants said Egypt and Pakistan were two
examples of areas that would suffer economic and political instability from global warming.
B. Discontent over Mubarak
Straits Times in ‘8 (John R. Bradley, “Rumblings of discontent grow louder”, 4-26, L/N)
Other Arab countries, including Morocco and Yemen, have witnessed riots in recent weeks as a result of hikes in basic food prices. The growing bread queues in Egypt - the result mainly of a global hike in
wheat prices - have certainly added to popular anger and discontent.
But Egypt is unique in the region, and not only because it is by far the most populous Arab country (one in four Arabs is
Egyptian). This anger in Egypt, tapped by a vibrant opposition print media, has deeper roots and the potential to spiral out of control.
When riots broke out
during the April 6 strike in an industrial town in the Nile Delta, it was telling that billboards with pictures of Mr Mubarak quickly became the focus of the rioters' wrath. Many posters of
Mr Mubarak were slashed with knives or were torn down and trampled underfoot. About half of Egyptians live on less than $2US ($2S.80) a day and depend on subsidised bread, cooking oil and other basic commodities to
survive. Food prices have risen more than 50 per cent in the past six months. The head of the World Bank said last month that it will take 'a generation' for Egypt's poor to see any benefits from the country's economic
restructuring. The question is whether they are prepared to wait that long. The fact that the number of industrial actions continues to grow suggests that they are not. The daily Al-Misry Al-Youm recently reported a total of
222 strikes, demonstrations and protests in 2006 and 580 in 2007. There were 27 collective actions in the first week of January this year alone. Estimates of the number of workers involved in this movement range from
300,000 to 500,000. Opposition groups say some 80 per cent of the population participated in some form or another in the April 6 general strike, albeit mainly by staying at home after an unprecedented show of intimidation
from the Egyptian security forces in all the main squares and traffic junctions of the country's major cities. Most dangerously for the regime, last year the strikes began to spread from the textile and clothing industry to
encompass workers from the building materials, transport, food processing, baking, sanitation and even oil industries. Private-sector industrial workers comprised a more prominent component of the movement than ever
The movement has
broadened to encompass white-collar employees, civil servants and professionals
before.
since
. The single largest collective action of
the movement was last December's strike of some 55,000 real estate tax collectors employed by the local authorities. And doctors, lawyers, and university professors are all planning nationwide industrial action in the coming
months. The regime finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place. It has been forced to add a further 15 million Egyptians to those already eligible for subsidised food, and is promising government workers significant
pay increases. But this has effectively put on hold neo-liberal economic policies so crucial for attracting foreign investment, the cornerstone of government economic policy and much favoured by home-grown crony
The truly awful thing about the Mubarak regime is how ideologically bankrupt it appears to be as it muddles aimlessly along,
resorting to quick-fix bribes and brute force to silence criticism. Those injured during the April 6 riots were actually handcuffed to their hospital beds. The regime's hope seems to be that things will peter
capitalists.
out rather than explode. Egyptians, this common interpretation has it, are notoriously passive, used as they have been for thousands of years to being ruled by pharaohs and living according to agricultural patterns determined
by the alluvial flow of the River Nile. But a quick glance at the past 100 years of its history tells a much different story. Egypt has been rocked every three decades or so by serious unrest: a 1919 nationalist revolution that
led to partial sovereignty; riots in January 1952 against British rule that left half of Cairo burnt to ashes, followed by the overthrow of the monarchy in July that year; bread riots in 1977 that almost led to the overthrow of then
president Anwar Sadat. Three decades on, Egypt is ripe for another popular uprising. If there is widespread chaos, only one group is poised to fill the vacuum: the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928 and a constant thorn
in the regime's side. A report this week by the government-controlled Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic and Political Studies claims that the officially outlawed group now has 2.5 million Egyptian members. The situation in
Egypt today is eerily similar to that in Iran in the years leading up to the 1979 Islamic revolution. It was not foreordained that the radical Islamists led by Ayatollah Khomeini would take power in Iran: They were simply one
of many groups opposing the Shah, and arguably not even the leading or most popular one. Before the Iranian revolution, the opposition to the Shah's rule was diverse. Similarly, the opposition to the Mubarak regime is
Moreover, the Iranian revolution began, as in Egypt today, with wildcat,
uncoordinated and inchoate strikes that built upon each other. These were joined by groups with better organisation and clearer political goals, and were met by a waffling government
diverse, made up of students, secularists, Marxists, Islamists and anti-imperialists.
that neither wanted to give up power nor was capable of quashing the opposition with the full force it had at its command.
ruthless force.
Islamists triumphed in Iran in 1979 because they proved themselves to be the most disciplined and
The Muslim Brotherhood knows this history well. It is monito ring events unfold in Egypt, aware that its chance to seize power may at last be arriving.
2. No impact – Musim brotherhood is moderate, not radical
Leiken and Brooke ‘7 (Robert, Director of the Immigration and National Security Program, and Steven, Resaercher, Nixon Center, Foreign Affairs, “The Moderate Muslim Brotherhood”, March/April, L/N)
The Muslim Brotherhood is the world's oldest, largest, and most influential Islamist organization. It is also the most controversial, condemned by both conventional opinion in the West and radical opinion in the Middle East.
commentators have called the Muslim Brothers "radical Islamists"
American
and "a vital component of the enemy's assault force ... deeply hostile to the United States." Al
Qaeda's Ayman al-Zawahiri sneers at them for "lur[ing] thousands of young Muslim men into lines for elections ... instead of into the lines of jihad." Jihadists loathe the Muslim Brotherhood (known in Arabic as al-Ikhwan
al-Muslimeen) for rejecting global jihad and embracing democracy. These positions seem to make them moderates, the very thing the United States, short on allies in the Muslim world, seeks. But the Ikhwan also assails U.S.
, we have met with dozens of Brotherhood
leaders and activists from Egypt, France, Jordan, Spain, Syria, Tunisia, and the United Kingdom. In long and sometimes heated discussions, we explored the Brotherhood's stance on democracy and
foreign policy, especially Washington's support for Israel, and questions linger about its actual commitment to the democratic process. Over the past year
jihad, Israel and Iraq, the United States, and what sort of society the group seeks to create. The Brotherhood is a collection of national groups with differing outlooks, and the various factions disagree about how best to
all reject global jihad while embracing elections and other features of democracy. There is also a current within the Brotherhood
willing to engage with the United States. In the past several decades, this current -- along with the realities of practical politics -- has
pushed much of the Brotherhood toward moderation.
advance its mission. But
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AT: EGYPTIAN INSTABILITY 2/2
3. No Impact – instability won’t topple the government – security forces solve
Bradley in ‘8 (John, British Journalist and Author of “Inside Egypt: The Land of the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolution”, FrontPageMagazine, “Egypt: On the
Brink of Revolution?” 4-30, http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=8D51E68E-FB9D-4FEA-BD51-554742EC61C4)
FP: Yes, your book is extremely timely. Egypt is presently witnessing an endless series of strikes, demonstrations and riots. What is
the cause? And what are the chances of them leading to serious instability? Bradley: There are many causes: extreme poverty,
endemic torture, rampant corruption, political oppression, the complete evisceration of the middle class, the theft of the country's vast
wealth by the fat cats under the guise of privatization and opening up the economy to foreign investment. Then there's the
ideologically bankrupt regime itself that has absolutely no interest in solving any of these problems -- indeed, which is the root cause
of them all. There's no indication that the latest wave of strikes and riots will in and of itself topple the Mubarak regime. There are 1.4
million members of the Egyptian security forces, and their brutality in stifling dissent is legendary. As I write in my book, these thugs
even beat, rape, and murder little boys for allegedly stealing packets of tea, apparently just for fun of it, so they can be completely
relied upon to beat protestors in the street to a pulp.
4. No governmental overthrow – analysts agree
Washington Post in ‘5 (Anthony Shadid, “Egypt's Political Opening Exposes Frailty of Opposition”,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/27/AR2005072702296_pf.html)
Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for 24 years, will announce his candidacy for a fifth term Thursday, officials say. The event will be
carefully scripted: He will declare his intention in Shibin al-Kom, the gritty Nile Delta village where he was born 77 years ago.
Protocol will be followed, they say, and his party will then nominate him to stand for election Sept. 7. But as Mubarak looks past the
barely contested vote, little else in the largest Arab country seems assured. After months of expectations -- high hopes for change
that followed this spring's protests in Lebanon and Mubarak's own hints at more political freedom -- the longest-serving ruler of
modern Egypt today is struggling through a season of discontent. There is nascent dissent against him, and far broader frustration over
decades of perceived stagnation. Three nearly simultaneous bombings Saturday in the resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, which killed as many
as 88 people, have undercut the mantra of his government -- security and stability. Beyond his election this fall is another for
parliament in November that will be viewed in the United States and elsewhere as the barometer of whether Mubarak will inaugurate
long-awaited reform. "Everything in the next year will depend on what happens in the next few months," said Diaa Rashwan, an
analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "It's a critical moment." Hardly anyone in Egypt views
Mubarak's days as numbered, barring problems with his health or a decision to step down. Always more tactician than visionary, he
has proved himself a survivor through assassination attempts, a stubborn insurgency in the 1990s and regional crises that once led him
to war. This time, he may benefit from the very irony of change: The new liberties provided to his opposition have revealed its
divisions and weakness. The bombings, Egypt's worst terrorist attack, have cowed fiery opposition newspapers, at least for now.
Frustration aside, many of Egypt's 77 million people seem reluctant to enter the political fray.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
136/420
AT: ELECTRICITY PRICES SPIKES
1. Markets will self-correct- no risk of any damage to the economy
Michaels and Ellig 98 [Robert J. Michaels is professor of economics at California State University, Fullerton, and adjunct scholar at
the Cato Institute. Jerry Ellig is senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, George Mason University., Electricity: Price Spikes by
Design?, summer, http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv22n2/pricespikes.pdf]
We believe that the evidence suggests the wholesale electricity market operated with surprising efficiency under difficult
circumstances and that regulators should not take the price spikes as evidence of the need for price controls or other guidance.
Remarkably, both the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (ferc) and commissions in the affected states largely agree with us.
Unlike their counterparts in the Northeast and West, self-sufficient midwestern utilities traditionally have relied sparingly on market
purchases of power. In the extreme conditions of last summer, the market flourished and helped keep the lights on. The reliable supply
of electricity depends on complex coordinated networks. The United States is learning that markets can perform much of the necessary
coordination.
2. High electricity prices are inevitable - volatility has emerged because of flawed structure and lack of information on
consumption
Journal of Property Management 01 [A periodical from Chicago, Illinois on property management., A new energy economy: Valuing
information, Mar/Apr, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5361/is_200103/ai_n21470037?tag=content;col1]
Market volatility. A distressingly high degree of volatility has emerged in the commodity markets in response to growing regional
disparities in supply and demand for both electricity and natural gas. In the case of California, volatility and concern has risen as a
result of an incomplete and/or flawed deregulatory structure. Marketers and utilities attempt to protect themselves from this volatility
through risk management (hedging) and other forward-pricing strategies and by offering their customers value-- added services and
products. This is why many utility companies now offering telecom and broadband services, energy audits and conservation
incentives, customer assistance centers, and electronic bill presentation and payment.
If they possess the necessary information about their consumption, energy users can dampen some of their exposure to price volatility
by better defining supply contract terms and by implementing load-- management strategies, such as demand aggregation (buying
pools) or onsite (distributed) generation.
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EXT #1 – NO IMPACT TO ECONOMY
Spikes don’t change anything and the markets behave normally regardless
Michaels and Ellig 98 [Robert J. Michaels is professor of economics at California State University, Fullerton, and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. Jerry Ellig
is senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, George Mason University., Electricity: Price Spikes by Design?, summer,
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv22n2/pricespikes.pdf]
Within the spike days, prices behaved competitively. Low demand and plentiful transmission in off-peak hours produced prices below
$15/MWh on the spike days, the same as before and after the spike days. Onpeak, a confidential survey of power marketers by Tabors
Caramanis and Associates (tca) showed a normal intraday pattern, rising with the sun and cresting prior to the late afternoon peak for
deliveries to be made in the following hours. In a given hour, the risks of shortfalls (which can cause systemwide outages) and the
uncertainty about transmission produced large differences between reported high and low prices. Both high and low prices, however,
showed the same pattern over the day.
Electricity price spikes are absorbed by the economy and have little chance of allowing the prices of energy to soar
Poole 07 [William, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Energy and the U.S. Macro Economy, July 24, http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2007/07_24_07.html]
In contrast, the real price of coal fell steadily from 1976 to 2003 and has since risen only slightly. In 2006, the real price of coal was
less than half of its 1982-4 value. The real retail price of gasoline has increased continuously since 2003, but in 2006 exceeded the
average price of 1982-4 by only 12 percent. The relative price in 2006 is roughly 10 percent below its historical high reached in 1981.
The real price of electricity fell by about 35 percent from the early 1980s until 1999, leveled off, and has increased about 12 percent
since 2003. Nevertheless electricity remains 23 percent cheaper in real terms than it was on average during 1982-4. As painful as
recent energy price increases have been, this historical perspective helps us to understand why the economy has been able to absorb
the price increases with little effect on the aggregate economy. Perhaps the most direct way to understand the impact of energy prices
on consumers is to examine the fraction of household budgets devoted to energy. After 1981, the share of consumer expenditures on
energy out of nominal disposable personal income trended downward, from a high of over 8 percent to about 4.1 percent in 1998 (see
Figure 6). Disposable personal income, by the way, is essentially all household income including transfers such as Social Security
benefits less direct taxes, which are mostly income taxes. Real disposable personal income is the nominal or dollar amount adjusted
for changes in the general price level. With the increase in energy prices documented in Figures 2 and 3, the energy share of
disposable personal income rose from 4.1 percent in 1998 to almost 5.8 percent in 2006. This increase simply returns the share to
about its 1985 level. It is important to recognize, however, that the increase in energy prices, though of limited impact in the
aggregate, has forced difficult choices on lower-income households for whom the burden has been much higher as a proportion of
income. The recent price increases are having the expected negative impact on the quantity of energy consumed, relative to total goods
and services consumed, but the total amount spent on energy has nevertheless increased. The increase in the energy share of nominal
disposable personal income reflects the inelastic short-run demand for energy by consumers. Put another way, as energy prices have
surged, the quantity of energy consumed has grown more slowly than real disposable personal income but not slowly enough, given
the price increases, to prevent the amount spent on energy from rising significantly.
Spikes don’t cause inflation
Humpage and Pelz 03 [Owen F. Humpage is an economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Eduard Pelz was recently a senior economic
research analyst there., Do Energy Price Spikes Cause Inflation?, Apr 1, http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2003/0401.pdf]
Many people mistakenly believe that a sharp rise in the price of energy is necessarily inflationary. They fail to understand that energy
prices adjust to the demand and supply of energy, whereas inflation responds to the demand and supply of money. This Economic
Commentary explains that the Federal Reserve can do nothing about relative energy prices, but it can determine how relative energy
price shocks are reflected in the overall level of prices. Over the last 20 years, the inflationary consequences of energy price shocks,
while significant, have been fairly subdued.
Socks don’t cause economic collapse- their ev assumes 20 years ago- recessions would at least be mild
Humpage and Pelz 03 [Owen F. Humpage is an economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Eduard Pelz was recently a senior economic
research analyst there., Do Energy Price Spikes Cause Inflation?, Apr 1, http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2003/0401.pdf]
Our model suggests that the impact of energy price shocks on the U.S. economy— both on prices and output—has not been very
dramatic over the past 20 years. Prior to the early 1980s, energy prices apparently had a profound effect on business cycle activity. In
1983, for example, economist James Hamilton noted that energy price spikes preceded nearly every U.S. recession since World War
II, and he verified this relationship statistically. More recently, however, the connection between energy price spikes and business
cycle patterns has seemed less certain. By 1996, Mark Hooker could find little evidence of a relationship. Although energy price
spikes preceded the two recent recessions, the downturns were conspicuously mild (see figure 1).
Increased energy efficiency may be the most obvious reason that energy price spikes have less of a macroeconomic impact. According
to Energy Department estimates, we now consume only half as many Btu of energy per unit of GDP as we did in early 1970s (see
figure 2). Conservation should dampen both the business cycle consequences and the inflation impact of energy price hikes. (We did
attempt to control for energy efficiency in our model.)
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EXT #2 – INNEVITABLE
Natural gas prices make electricity price increases inevitable
Houston Chronicle 5/31 [Texas: Electricity price flies off the grid, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45318]
The price of electricity already was rising toward records because of climbing natural gas prices. Now it's getting an extra boost from
unexpected spikes in the wholesale markets where electricity is bought and sold in bulk.
For several days this month and in April, the price of power briefly spiked in the so-called balancing market where the state's grid
operator buys electricity at 15-minute intervals to keep supply and demand in balance.
Those prices didn't show up directly on any homeowners' bills, but they may have helped push two smaller electric retailers out of
business, dumping almost 25,000 customers back into the market.
Alt causes- consumer and seasonal load, supplier risk, and non-energy costs
Rose 07 [Kenneth Rose is an independent consultant and a Senior Fellow with the Institute of Public Utilities (IPU) at Michigan State University, The Impact of Fuel Costs on Electric
Power Prices, June,
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:KCd4m1RYmroJ:www.appanet.org/files/PDFs/ImpactofFuelCostsonElectricPowerPrices.pdf+electricity+price+spikes+inflation+-china+-russia+-sri+lanka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=16&gl=us]
While natural gas prices have certainly played a role, looking at the data shows that simply attributing electricity price increases to
only the cost of fuels used to generate electricity is overly simplistic at best. Other important factors that determine electricity prices
are the level of customer load and the seasonal variation of load, and supplier risks and other non-energy costs. In addition, it is likely
that other unaccounted for factors may also help explain electricity price changes.
California electricity meltdown spilled over to the rest of the US and makes spikes inevitable for years
Penner 01 [Dr. Peter S. Fox-Penner, Principal of The Brattle Group, Inc., Before the Senate Committee on the Budget January 30, 2001;
http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/testimony/2001/foxpenner_econsechrng013001.pdf]
Mr. Chairman, much has been written and said about the electricity crisis in California, and I will not dwell on it in these remarks. However, there are four irrefutable
features of the California crisis. First, there is a critical shortage of natural gas pipeline capacity into the state. Second, there is an equally critical shortage of generation
and transmission capacity in California and across much of the West. Third, the state failed to maximize its conservation and demand reduction opportunities, both of
which are critical for effective electric markets. Fourth and finally, all these factors ensure very high prices for power throughout the West for the next several years.
Today, throughout this region, wholesale power prices are six times as high as last year’s levels and the highest they have been in at
least 60 years. These features are more troubling, Mr. Chairman, because they are likely to occur - - or are already occurring - - in
much of the rest of the United States. Parts of the U.S. have ample generating capacity, but other regions are perilously low on
reserves, and new transmission lines are not getting 3 built. Amazingly, in a nation whose electric demand has increased over 14% in the
last six years, total industry investment in transmission assets has declined, and very few major new lines are underway anywhere in
the U.S. The implications of this situation are that high and volatile natural gas and power prices are likely to be with us for several
years, especially in the West and transmission-constrained urban areas. In contrast to oil prices, which are not at levels high enough to cause a major dislocation,
electricity and gas prices are projected to remain sufficiently high and volatile so as to introduce an unprecedented degree of uncertainty
over the economy during the next few years.
Different markets make increases inevitable
Purdue News 01 [Electricity prices could rise if wholesale markets function poorly, Nov 7,
http://news.uns.purdue.edu/UNS/html4ever/011107.Sparrow.energy.html]
Before 1996, utilities purchased electricity strictly from other utility companies because federal regulations prohibited independent
power producers from entering the wholesale market. But since that restriction was removed, many so-called "merchant plants" have
been springing up in the Midwest and across the nation. In Indiana alone, six such plants have come online since the federal change
and another 14 new plants have been proposed so far, Sparrow said.
Electricity from merchant plants is especially needed during the hottest summer months, as the power grid strains to meet energy
demands, he said.
If enough of the producers that sell wholesale electricity to utilities merge in the near future, the result could be drastically higher
peak-demand prices. That's because the fewer, merged companies that remain could, independently of each other, decide to withhold
electricity during times of peak demand, increasing their own profits but causing the wholesale price of electricity to spike upward
dramatically.
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AT: ENDOCRINE DISRUPTIONS
Alt causes to endocrine disruptions
NRDC, 98 (National Resources Defense Council, “Issues: Health; Endocrine Disruptors,”
http://www.nrdc.org/health/effects/qendoc.asp)
Exposure to endocrine disruptors can occur through direct contact with pesticides and other chemicals or through ingestion of
contaminated water, food, or air. Chemicals suspected of acting as endocrine disruptors are found in insecticides, herbicides, fumigants and
fungicides that are used in agriculture as well as in the home. Industrial workers can be exposed to chemicals such as detergents, resins, and plasticizers
with endocrine disrupting properties. Endocrine disruptors enter the air or water as a byproduct of many chemical and manufacturing processes and
when plastics and other materials are burned. Further, studies have found that endocrine disruptors can leach out of plastics, including the
type of plastic used to make hospital intravenous bags. Many endocrine disruptors are persistent in the environment and accumulate in fat, so the greatest
exposures come from eating fatty foods and fish from contaminated water.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
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AT: ENERGY SECURITY
Alt causes to volatility
1. Middle East
People’s Daily in ‘7 (“Variables cause of crude oil price volatility”, 4-13,
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200704/13/eng20070413_366272.html)
Of course, neither a price rise nor a price crash is in the long-term interests of oil-producing and consuming countries. Everyone hopes
that oil prices can be stabilized at a reasonable level. On the one hand, overly-high oil prices would encourage non-OPEC oil
producers to step up oil production, which would lead to chaos in the oil market, and have a negative impact on the development of
the world economy. On the other hand, it is unrealistic to return to the era of cheap oil. This is mainly because oil is a non-renewable
source of energy. With global demand increasing rapidly, oil reserves are decreasing quickly. It is a difficult problem. In particular,
oil-producing giant OPEC will not sit idly by if oil prices slump, having made so many petrodollars from higher oil prices. Reportedly,
OPEC's bottom line crude oil export price is no less than $60 a barrel. If oil prices fall below this, OPEC will do everything possible to
revive the market. In fact, it has twice taken action to reverse the sharp decline of oil prices by reducing daily production levels to 1.7
million barrels. In any case, oil prices will be volatile while war, turmoil and fear prevail in the Middle East. The fragile balance
between demand and supply in the world oil market means that any sign of trouble could cause serious turmoil. In the Gulf region,
there are many variables. In particular, the tit-for-tat conflict between Iran and the United States makes the general situation
unpredictable. If there is a conflict between the two countries, oil prices might run out of control, pushing oil prices to the highest
point ever.
2. Speculation
IANS in ‘8 (Indo-Asian News Service, “OIL PRICE SWINGS DUE TO SPECULATION: SAUDI ARAMCO CHIEF”, 11-26, L/N)
Speculation was the cause of the intense volatility in the oil prices rather than any other factor, the head of Saudi Arabia's national oil
company said here Wednesday. "It is obvious. When our King called for a meeting (in June), oil was around 130 (dollars per barrel).
But, there was no shortage," Abdallah S. Jum'ah, president and CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, said while
delivering the GreatCorps World Business Statesman lecture. "There was no need for the price to be where it was at that time. It's
obvious now that speculation played a lot (of role)," he said. Further, he noted that the current steep drop in oil prices was due to
"people dropping their contracts in order to monetize them". "(The fall in prices is) not determined by supply and demand," said
Jum'ah, who has headed Aramco for over 14 years and is slated to retire at end of December 2008.
3. Market complexity
Yergin et al, 08 (12/15, Daniel, Chairman @ Cambridge Energy Research Associates formerly Chair of US DOE Task Force on
sTrategic Energy Research and Development, David Hobbs, CERA Head of Research, Julian West, CERA Senior Associate and
Expert in Strategic Analysis and Portfolio Management, and Richard Vital, CERA Director, ““Recession Shock”: The Impact of the
Economic and Financial Crisis on the Oil Market”, http://www.decc.gov.uk/pdfs/cera-report.pdf)
Faced with the potential for more violent swings in the oil price—resulting from timing effects and market reactions, all adding to the
bias toward underinvestment that is created by volatility—it is only natural to ask if there are ways to remove this volatility. If only
producers could enjoy greater security of demand. If only consumers could rely on uninterrupted supply. If only inventories alone
were sufficient to dampen price volatility and there were no need for the market to guess about future changes in spare production
capacity. If only institutional investors were consistent in their demands on the energy companies in which they invest. The oil market
is too big, complex, diversified, and international. There are too many participants with major national, economic, or commercial
interests at stake. The lead times are too long and the supply side too “lumpy.” There are also too many variables that can shock the
market. CERA sees no escape from some degree of volatility in the oil market—indeed, volatility may be an unintended side effect of
periods of consensus about expected future oil prices. Such periods are characteristic of the industry worldwide. The oil industry’s
responses to such consensus frustrate expectations. However, episodes of extreme volatility such as in 2008 (or the early and mid1980s and 1998–99) exacerbate imbalances between supply and demand because the more volatile the oil price, the more cautious the
investment planning of oil companies.
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141/420
AT: ENVIRONMENTAL LEADERSHIP
1. No solvency – US efforts lack credibility, the plan would be perceived as desperate political spin.
Geiselman 6/11/2007 Staff Writer for Waste News
(Bruce - Waste News, “Bush Pledges Leadership on Global Warming,” Lexis-Nexis, EA)
President Bush has pledged the U nited States would spearhead an international effort to address global climate change, but environmental
advocacy groups immediately voiced skepticism. Bush, speaking to reporters in Washington on May 31, unveiled a plan for the United States to
convene a meeting between nations that are major emitters of greenhouse gases. Bush said he wants to complete a new framework before the end of 2008 for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 when the Kyoto protocol expires. The United States refused to ratify the 1997 international agreement. Bush said it would be essential for nations
with rapidly growing economies, including China and India, to participate in talks. Those countries, with rapidly growing energy demands, also have resisted mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas
emissions. White House spokesmen said the president's proposal would address both energy and economic security by accelerating the development and use of clean energy technologies. The
participating countries would agree to international targets, but each country would achieve its emissions goal by establishing its own programs and interim targets. The United States would
assist other countries by providing them with access to emerging clean energy technologies and eliminating tariffs and other barriers to those technologies. Bush also called on international
development banks to make low-cost financing readily available for developing countries. Bush
said the United States has been a leader in developing cleaner,
cheaper and more reliable energy technologies - including solar, wind, nuclear and clean coal technologies. ``In recent years, science has deepened
our understanding of climate change and opened new possibilities for confronting it,'' Bush said. ``The United States takes this issue seriously.'' Leaders in the environmental
movement critical of the Bush administration's record on global warming quickly rejected the president's latest proposal unveiled
before the start of an international summit. ``This is a transparent effort to divert attention from the president's refusal to accept any
emissions reductions proposals at [the June 6-8] G8 summit,'' said Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust. ``After sitting out talks on global warming
for years, the Bush administration doesn't have very much credibility with other governments on this issue.''
2. Obama solves – a legitimate push for cap and trade was perceived as well as EPA regulation
3. No solvency – countries don’t want the US to lead but rather to contribute.
Clifton 4/19/2007 IPS staff
(Eli – Inter Press Service, “World Opposed to US as Global Cop,” CommonDreams,
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/04/19/617/, EA)
WASHINGTON - The world public rejects the U.S. role as a world leader, but still wants the United States to do its share in multilateral
efforts and does not support a U.S. withdrawal from international affairs, says a poll released Wednesday. The survey respondents see the United States as an
unreliable “world policeman”, but views are split on whether the superpower should reduce its overseas military bases. The people of the
United States generally agreed with the rest of the world that their country should not remain the world’s pre-eminent leader or global cop, and prefer that it play a more cooperative role in
multilateral efforts to address world problems. The poll, the fourth in a series released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org since the latter half of 2006, was
conducted in China, India, United States, Indonesia, Russia, France, Thailand, Ukraine, Poland, Iran, Mexico, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Argentina, Peru, Israel, Armenia and the
Palestinian territories. The
three previous reports covered attitudes toward humanitarian military intervention, labour and environmental standards in
global warming. Those surveys found that the international public generally favoured more multilateral efforts to curb genocides and more far-reaching
measures to protect labour rights and combat climate change than their governments have supported to date. Steven Kull, editor of WorldPublicOpinion.org, notes that this report
confirms other polls which have shown that world opinion of the United States is bad and getting worse, however this survey more closely
examines the way the world public would want to see Washington playing a positive role in the international community. Although all 15 of the countries polled rejected the
idea that, “the U.S. should continue to be the pre-eminent world leader in solving international problems,” only Argentina and the Palestinian territories say it
international trade, and
“should withdraw from most efforts to solve international problems.”
4. Alternate causality – failure to ratify chemical control treaties tanks environmental credibility.
Schafer 9/6/2006 staff – Foreign Policy in Focus
(Kristin S. – With other authors and editors, Foreign Policy in Focus, “One More Failed US Environmental Policy,”
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3492, EA)
Back in 2001, two global toxics treaties offered a rare opportunity for U.S. leadership in the international environmental policy arena.
Today not only is the opportunity for leadership lost, but the United States seems bent on undermining the effectiveness of these
important treaties while the rest of the world moves ahead on implementation. The issues at hand are global elimination of persistent
chemicals and control of trade in toxics, and the two international treaties that address these challenges are the Stockholm Convention
on Persistent Organic Pollutants and the Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade.
As of August 2006, at least 127 countries had ratified the Stockholm Convention, and 110 had confirmed the Rotterdam Convention. Both conventions
have been in force for more than two years, but the United States has yet to approve either .
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AT: ENVIRONMENTAL RACISM/JUSTICE
1. Claims of environmental racism are flawed – studies show there is no discriminatory siting.
Glasgow 5 (Joshua, Yale Law School JD candidate, Buffalo Environmental Law Journal, 13 Buff. Envt’l L.J. 69, Fall, ln)
In addition to courtroom difficulties, the environmental justice movement was challenged by a number of studies in the mid-1990s
challenging the evidence of discriminatory siting and exposure. [*76] An influential University of Massachusetts study conducted
in 1994 examined over five hundred hazardous waste facilities and found no evidence of discriminatory siting. 27 Additionally,
scholars challenged the earlier studies' methodologies, including the sample selection, the definition of minority, the geographic
scope examined, and the failure to control for other variables. 28 In a series of articles, Vicki Been set forth a particularly powerful
critique of environmental justice studies. 29 Been notes that most studies examined the contemporary makeup of a neighborhood
impacted by a LULU, not its makeup at the time of siting. 30 This method ignores the possibility that a LULU would lower nearby
housing prices, causing affluent residents to move away. These residents would be replaced by lower-income individuals, attracted
by the lower housing prices. As a result of these market dynamics, even LULUs located in a wealthy neighborhood could later
become surrounded by the poor. 31 This "chicken-or-the-egg" dilemma has plagued the environmental justice literature. 32
2. No environmental racism – the market makes it inevitable and their studies are flawed.
Evans 98 (Jill E, Samford U associate law prof., “Challenging the Racism in Environmental Racism: Redefining the Concept of
Intent”, Arizona Law Review, 40 Ariz. L. Rev. 1219, p. 1252-1256, ln)
Despite the evidence of race-based inequities in the distribution of toxic waste facilities, critics of the "environmental racism"
theory attack either the methodology underlying the empirical studies 166 or the conclusions drawn from the empirical evidence.
167 Methodological criticisms have challenged the parameters [*1253] used to define "minority community," 168 population
densities, 169 the statistical significance of the results, 170 and the failure of environmental justice studies to include information
regarding the correlation between the actual population risk and exposure. 171 [*1254] A more frequent criticism asserts that the
use of zip codes as opposed to census tract data to establish the boundaries of the "community" renders the data less reliable. A
study by the University of Massachusetts-Amherst ("UMass"), where census tract data as opposed to zip codes was used to
compare demographics, found minorities were no more likely to live in neighborhoods 172 with commercial hazardous waste
facilities than in neighborhoods without them. 173 Waste Management Inc., using the same methodology employed by the UCC
Report, contends that of 130 waste disposal units in their system, 174 76% were in communities with a white population equal to
or greater than the host state average. 175 However, an update of the UCC Report authored by Benjamin [*1255] Goldman, using
1990 census data and again using zip codes as the defining parameter, found "a continued disturbing correlation between the
location of hazardous waste facilities and communities where people of color live." 176 Goldman acknowledges the contradictory
findings of the UMass study, asserting that its conclusions are due largely to design decisions, but contends that other studies using
census tracts as the geographic unit found "significant disproportionate impacts by race." 177 The most prominent and frequent
criticisms, however, question whether the empirical evidence supports the inference or conclusion of racial bias or whether it
merely reflects an economic reality. 178 In other words, detractors contend it is not race per se that defines and determines siting
decisions but rather a community's location on the socio-economic scale. 179 These economic realities [*1256] focused on cost
as the primary consideration. Kent Jeffreys, Director of Environmental Studies for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, testified
before a congressional subcommittee that "poor people and minorities do not attract polluters. Low-cost land does, and for the
same reasons that it attracts poor people." 180 The UCC Report acknowledged that land values tended to be cheaper in poorer
neighborhoods and therefore more attractive to polluting industries. 181
3. Their claims of environmental racism are misconceived – the environmental justice movement overlooks differences in
communities to misevaluate environmental harm.
Popescu and Gandy 4 (Mihaela and Oscar H Jr., profs. of communication at U PA, Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation, 19
J. Envtl. L. & Litg. 141, Spring, p. 161, ln)
The commentators of the environmental justice movement have usually overlooked the fact that the notion of community
encompasses very different social space and treats communities interchangeably. The difference between a suburban community
and a city neighborhood, for example, rests both in the array of concerns and in the social organization of the residents around
different notions of space. Since toxic landfills are usually located in the suburbs, claims of discriminatory noxious sitings are
more characteristic for suburban communities. In contrast, concern for the discriminatory enforcement of public policies such as
zoning, housing, and access to public services is likely to be in the realm of neighborhoods.
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AT: EU SOFT POWER
1. Alt caus – low relations with Russia
APW 07 (Associated Press Worldstream, 11/27. “EU needs closer ties with Russia to increase global influence, Gorbachev says.”
Lexis.)
The European Union will not have true global influence until it finds a way to achieve closer ties with Russia, former Soviet leader
Mikhail Gorbachev said Tuesday. Gorbachev said that while it was impossible for Russia to become an EU member in the foreseeable
future, the two sides needed to draw up a document setting the rules for "advanced cooperation" If the EU and Russia do not improve
relations, "we will fail to make Europe a center of power in the world," Gorbachev said at start of a session of the World Political
Forum, which he founded in 2003. "For Europe to become a power center ... is important for the world balance and if this doesn't
happen, global processes will be even more unpredictable," Gorbachev said. "The EU needs to get a clear and independent voice in
global affairs, which has not happened since the end of the Cold War," said the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize winner, whose policies of
glasnost and perestroika openness and restructuring helped end communism in the Soviet Union and its satellites. "This is one of the
reasons why we have seen major problems and mistakes in international politics the involvement of Europe should be clear and
visible," Gorbachev said, mentioning the wars in the Balkans and Iraq as scenarios where Europe "did not quite measure up to its
potential" and allowed the United States to achieve a "monopoly leadership." He also expressed concern that more and more Russians
wanted to "choose a non-European path," desiring instead to redirect Russia's economic and political links toward Asia, while Europe
doubted Russia's ability to build a true democracy. "Alienation between Russia and the EU is a very dangerous tendency and we must
not allow it to happen," Gorbachev said, adding that the EU remained Russia's most important partner in economic issues, as well as in
modernizing the country. "Russia will continue to move along its democratic path, but we are at best only halfway in this process. We
still have a long way to go," Gorbachev concluded.
2. Partnership with the U.S. solves
DPA 08 (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 9/5. “ROUNDUP: EU looks to close ranks with US to keep global influence.” Lexis.)
The European Union must close ranks with the United States if the two powers are to keep their global influence during the rise of
states like China, India and Russia, EU foreign-policy chiefs said at an informal meeting on Friday. "The new American
administration will, as we all of course also,have to cope with the new emerging countries: apart from Russia,which is an old power
with a new assertiveness, India, Brazil andChina," EU foreign-policy commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said. "We want to be
more equal partners with the US, but how can we do that? We have to raise our own game, we have to be more clear andunited in the
positions we are taking, we have to be more effectiveand forthcoming in using our policy and our instruments," she said. At an
informal meeting in the French city of Avignon, the foreign ministers of the EU's 27 member states discussed how to cooperate with
the next US president on questions of global security such asclimate change and energy security, French Foreign Minister
BernardKouchner, who chaired the meeting, said. "The world is dangerous, the return of nationalism andmicro-nationalism impose on
(the EU and US) a common vision andcommon steps," he warned. "We want to set up a sort of better process, not to be surprised,not
to be completely bare-handed, and not always to be obliged tothreaten someone else," he said. Ahead of the US election, scheduled for
November 4, the EU is therefore set to draw up a list of the areas in which it would like to work more closely with the US, to be sent
to President George WBush and the two candidates in the election. "It's not to take advantage (of the change of administration), but
knowing that our American friends ... also wish that the EU should be politically present in the world's problems, and take its political
place, not just as a fund-raiser but a player in its matters of peace, and sometimes of war," Kouchner said. But at the same time, he
also criticized the policies of current US Vice-President Dick Cheney, who on Friday visited Ukraine on a whirlwind tour of the
former Soviet Union aimed at boosting ties in the wake of August's Georgian-Russian war. Cheney "has a certain sense of protecting
people, but I'm not so sure he got a lot of success with this particular sense," he said. Also at the meeting, ministers discussed with the
EU's top foreign-policy figure, Javier Solana, how the bloc should update itscommon security strategy - a document written in
December 2003. "There are questions like climate change and energy security whichneed an answer," Solana said, adding that he
hoped to present a"short and useful" new document to EU leaders by the end of the year. Tellingly, however, the original strategy of
2003 stresses the need for the EU to project its values round the world by working withinternational organizations such as the UN and
WTO. "The best protection for our security is a world of well-governeddemocratic states," it says, listing political and social reform
andthe defence of human rights as "the best means of strengthening theinternational order." And the rise of Russia, China and India
has alarmed EU diplomats,with the Russian-Georgian war and the collapse of WTO talks in a rowbetween China, India and the US
both seen as signs that Westerndomination of the international agenda can no longer be assured. "Over the last few years, you've seen
a determined effort on the part of Europe and the Americans to forge common positions on issues as diverse as Iran, Russia, and
international development," British Foreign Minister David Miliband pointed out. "There's still an opportunity to work together, not at
the expense of the rising powers in China and India, but as a way of binding them into the global system and making sure that
responsibility is shared by all the powers in the modern world," he said.
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AT: EUROPE WARS
No European wars
Peter Liberman, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Queens College of the City University of New York,
Winter 2000/2001, Security Studies, “Ties That Blind,” Vol. 10, No. 2, p. 103-4
With the disappearance of the Soviet Union and no other potential superpowers on the horizon, the U nited States has little to fear from
would-be Eurasian hegemons for the foreseeable future. The United States is the world’s sole superpower, with an unrivaled combination of
economic resources, advanced technology, and military capabilities. China, Russia, France, and Britain each have robust nuclear deterrents, virtually
precluding their conquest or domination by others. Japan, Germany, France, Britain, and Russia are all democracies, and —assuming they stay that
way—domestically impeded from absorbing other modern nations. If democratic peace theory is correct, they are unlikely to fight each other at
all. Even if, however, China were to absorb Japan, Russia to conquer Germany, or Europe to unify politically, this would still not create the kind
of Eurasian behemoth so feared during the First World War, the Second World War, and the cold war. At worst, such regional hegemonies would
return the international system to bipolarity, and only at this point would threat require renewed U.S. balancing. It seems reasonable to conclude that, as Robert
Jervis has put it, “few imaginable disputes [in the post–cold war era] will engage vital U.S. interests.”
War is impossible between European powers
MANDELBAUM 99 (Michael Mandelbaum is Christian A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC; and Director, Project on East-West Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, New York Survival, Winter 199899)
Armaments are both a cause and a consequence of the insecurity that anarchy creates for all sovereign states. Because they feel insecure, states equip themselves with
weapons that in turn make others feel insecure. Even with the purest of benign intentions, no country would be willing to do without any means of self-defence. Total
disarmament is thus not possible. But a series of treaties signed at the end of the Cold War and the beginning of the post-Cold War period
regulate both nuclear and non-nuclear arms in ways designed to engender confidence throughout Europe that no country harbours
aggressive intentions towards any other signatory.2' Two features of these treaties convey reassurance. First, the treaties make military
forces more suitable for defence than for attack. For nuclear weapons, concentrated in the hands of two countries, the US and Russia, this involves,
ironically, ratifying the unchallengeable supremacy of the offence. When the assured capacity to destroy the other side is mutual, it serves as a deterrent against attack.
The 1995 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty reconfigures military forces on the continent according to the principle
of 'defence dominance' by mandating numerical equality and reducing the size of the forces - numerical advantage ordinarily being required for a
successful attack and by limiting the types of weapons on which an attacking force would rely. The second confidence-inspiring feature of the European
arms agreements is transparency. Every country in Europe knows which armaments the others have and what each is doing with them.
(Limits are set on the scope and frequency of military exercises lest they be used to camouflage actual attacks.) Satellite photography and on-site inspections
have turned Europe, where armed forces are concerned, into a larger version of a department store continuously and comprehensively
monitored by video cameras to prevent shoplifting. This common security order is the result of a common renunciation of the motives
for war among the countries of Europe and North America, a common recognition that even in the absence of such motives arms
remain necessary but create insecurity, and the common adoption of measures to alleviate, if not entirely eliminate, this insecurity. As
such, it is the descendant of the informal series of understandings and practices that emerged in Europe in the second decade of the nineteenth century after the wars of
the French Revolution, which were designed to prevent another major conflict and were known, collectively, as the Concert of Europe.22 Democracy, which has
become the predominant, if not always perfectly realised, form of government in Europe, is conducive to common security. Democracies are
more likely than others to subscribe to such a system because they are more likely to fulfill its fundamental condition: rejecting the
motives for which sovereign states have traditionally gone to war. It is, moreover, easier for democracies than for others to adopt one
of common security's central practices - transparency - because politics within democratic systems is normally conducted in
transparent fashion.
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AT: FAILED STATES
No emperocal evidence of failed states causing destabilization or regional spillovers – only look to detailed scenarios of specific
states
Stewart Patrick (research fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.) 2006: Weak States and Global Threats:
Fact or Fiction? http://twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_patrick.pdf
It has become a common claim that the gravest dangers to U.S. and world security are no longer military threats from rival great
powers, but rather transnational threats emanating from the world’s most poorly governed countries . Poorly performing developing countries
are linked to humanitarian catastrophes; mass migration; environmental degradation; regional instability; energy insecurity; global pandemics; international crime; the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD); and, of course, transnational terrorism. Leading thinkers such as Francis Fukuyama have said that, “[s]ince the
end of the Cold War, weak and failing states have arguably become the single-most important problem for international order.”1 Official Washington agrees. Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice declares that nations incapable of exercising “responsible sovereignty” have a “spillover effect” in the form of
terrorism, weapons proliferation, and other dangers.2 This new focus on weak and failing states represents an important shift in U.S.
threat perceptions. Before the September 11 attacks, U.S. policymakers viewed states with sovereignty deficits exclusively through a humanitarian lens; they
piqued the moral conscience but possessed little strategic significance. Al Qaeda’s ability to act with impunity from Afghanistan changed this calculus, convincing
President George W. Bush and his administration that “America is now threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones .”3 This new
strategic orientation has already had policy and institutional consequences, informing recent U.S. defense, intelligence, diplomatic, development, and even trade
initiatives. The U.S. government’s latest National Defense Strategy calls on the U.S. military to strengthen the sovereign capacities of weak states to combat internal
threats of terrorism, insurgency, and organized crime. Beyond expanding its training of foreign security forces, the Pentagon is seeking interagency buy-in for a U.S.
strategy to address the world’s “ungoverned spaces.”4 The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), which has identified 50 such zones globally, is devoting new collection
assets to long-neglected parts of the world.5 The National Intelligence Council is assisting the Department of State’s new Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction
and Stabilization in identifying states at risk of collapse so that the office can launch conflict prevention and mitigation efforts. Not to be outdone, the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) has formulated its own “Fragile States Strategy” to bolster countries that could breed terror, crime, instability, and disease. The
Bush administration has even justified the Central American Free Trade Area as a means to prevent state failure and its associated spillovers.6 This new preoccupation
with weak states is not limited to the United States. In the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit has advocated a government-wide approach to
stabilizing fragile countries,7 and Canada and Australia are following suit. The United Nations has been similarly engaged; the unifying theme of last year’s proposals
for UN reform was the need for effective sovereign states to deal with today’s global security agenda. Kofi Annan remarked before the Council on Foreign Relations in
New York in 2004 that, “[w]hether the threat is terror or AIDS, a threat to one is a threat to all.… Our defenses are only as strong as their weakest link.”8 In September
2005, the UN endorsed the creation of a new Peacebuilding Commission to help war-torn states recover. The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in January 2005 also launched a “Fragile States” initiative in partnership with the World Bank’s
Low-Income Countries Under Stress (LICUS) program.9 It is striking, however, how little empirical evidence underpins these sweeping
assertions and policy developments. Policymakers and experts have presumed a blanket connection between weak governance and
transnational threats and have begun to implement policy responses accordingly. Yet, they have rarely distinguished among categories
of weak and failing states or asked whether (and how) certain types of developing countries are associated with particular threats. Too
often, it appears that the entire range of Western policies is animated by anecdotal evidence or isolated examples, such as Al Qaeda’s
operations in Afghanistan or cocaine trafficking in Colombia. The risk in this approach is that the United States will squander energy
and resources in a diffuse, unfocused effort to attack state weakness wherever it arises, without appropriate attention to setting
priorities and tailoring responses to poor governance and its specific, attendant spillovers. Before embracing a new strategic vision and
investing in new initiatives, conventional wisdom should be replaced by sober, detailed analysis. The ultimate goal of this fine-grained approach
should be to determine which states are associated with which dangers. Weak states do often incubate global threats, but this correlation is far from
universal. Crafting a more effective U.S. strategy will depend on a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms linking poor governance and state incapacity
in the developing world with cross-border spillovers.
Failed states impacts are inevitable from stable states like Russia and China
Stewart Patrick (research fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.) 2006: Weak States and Global Threats:
Fact or Fiction? http://twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_patrick.pdf
Third, the relationship between state weakness and spillovers is not linear. It varies by threat. Some salient transnational dangers to
U.S. and global security come not from states at the bottom quintile of the Governance Matters rankings but from the next tier up,
countries such as Colombia, the world’s leading producer of cocaine; Saudi Arabia, home to a majority of the September 11 hijackers; Russia, a host of
numerous transnational criminal enterprises; and China, the main source both of SARS and avian flu. These states tend to be better run and more
capable of delivering political goods; nearly half are eligible or on the threshold of eligibility for the MCA in 2006. Nevertheless, even these middling
performers may suffer from critical gaps in capacity or political will that enable spillovers.
Many countries empirically deny the impact
Impact Lab 10 (6/21, “The 2010 Failed States Index.” http://www.impactlab.com/2010/06/21/the-2010-failed-states-index/)
Given time and the right circumstances, countries do recover. Sierra Leone and Liberia, for instance, no longer rank among the top 20
failing states, and Colombia has become a stunning success story. Few remember today that the Dominican Republic once vied with
its neighbor Haiti for the title of “worst Caribbean basket case.” But the overall story of the Failed States Index is one of wearying
constancy, and 2010 is proving to be no different: Crises in Guatemala, Honduras, Iran, and Nigeria — among others — threaten to
push those unstable countries to the breaking point.
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AT: FAILED STATES  TERRORISM
Failed states don’t lead to terrorism
Stewart Patrick (research fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.) 2006: Weak States and Global Threats:
Fact or Fiction? http://twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_patrick.pdf
A closer look suggests that the connection between state weakness and transnational terrorism is more complicated and tenuous than
often as sumed. First, obviously not all weak and failed states are afflicted by terrorism. As historian Walter Laqueur points out, “In
the 49 countries currently designated by the United Nations as the least developed hardly any terrorist activity occurs.”27 Weak
capacity per se cannot explain why terrorist activity is concentrated in particular regions, particularly the Middle East and broader
Muslim world, rather than others such as Central Africa. Other variables and dynamics, including political, religious, cultural, and
geographical factors, clearly shape its global distribution. Similarly, not all terrorism that occurs in weak and failing states is
transnational. Much is self-contained action by insurgents motivated by local political grievances, such as the Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC), or national liberation struggles, such as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. It is
thus only tangentially related to the “global war on terrorism,” which, as defined by the Bush administration, focuses on terrorists with
global reach, particularly those motivated by an extreme Salafist strand of Wahhabi Islam. Third, not all weak and failing states are
equal. Conventional wisdom holds that terrorists are particularly attracted to collapsed, lawless polities such as Somalia or Liberia, or
what the Pentagon terms “ungoverned spaces.” In fact, as Davidson College professor Ken Menkhaus and others note, terrorists are
more likely to find weak but functioning states, such as Pakistan or Kenya, congenial bases of operations. Such badly governed states
are not only fragile and susceptible to corruption, but they also provide easy access to the financial and logistical infrastructure of the
global economy, including communications technology, transportation, and banking services.28 Fourth, transnational terrorists are
only partially and perhaps decreasingly reliant on weak and failing states. For one, the Al Qaeda threat has evolved from a centrally
directed network, dependent on a “base,” into a much more diffuse global movement consisting of autonomous cells in dozens of
countries, poor and wealthy alike. Moreover, the source of radical Islamic terrorism may reside less in state weakness in the Middle
East than in the alienation of de-territorialized Muslims in Europe. The “safe havens” of global terrorists are as likely to be the
banlieues of Paris as the wastes of the Sahara or the slums of Karachi.29 In other words, weak and failing states can provide useful
assets to transnational terrorists, but they may be less central to their operations than widely believed. If there is one failed state today
that is important to transnational terrorism, it is probably Iraq. As CIA director Porter Goss tes- tified in early 2005, the U.S.-led
invasion and occupation transformed a brutal but secular authoritarian state into a symbol and magnet for the global jihadi
movement.30
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AT: FAILED STATES  PROLIF
Failed states don’t have the resources to proliferate
Stewart Patrick (research fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.) 2006: Weak States and Global Threats:
Fact or Fiction? http://twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_patrick.pdf
As with terrorism, the risk of proliferation from weak states is often more a matter of will than of objective capacity. This is
particularly true for WMD proliferation. The technological sophistication and secure facilities needed to construct such weapons
would seem to require access to and some acquiescence from the highest levels of the state apparatus. This may be less true for small
arms proliferation. Some weak states simply lack the capacity to police the grey or black market and to control flows of such weapons
across their borders.
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AT: FAILED STATES  ORGANIZED CRIME
Failed states not a root instigator of organized crime – no profit bed or operations infrastructure to work with
Stewart Patrick (research fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.) 2006: Weak States and Global Threats:
Fact or Fiction? http://twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_patrick.pdf
Yet, if state weakness is often a necessary condition for the influx of organized crime, it is not a sufficient one. Even more than a lowrisk operating environment, criminals seek profits. In a global economy, realizing high returns depends on tapping into a worldwide
market to sell illicit commodities and launder the proceeds, which in turn depends on access to financial services, modern
telecommunications, and transportation infrastructure. Such considerations help explain why South Africa and Nigeria have become
magnets for transnational and domestic organized crime and why Togo has not.39 Criminals will accept the higher risks of
operating in states with stronger capacity in return for greater rewards.
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AT: FAMINE
1. New diseases will wipeout food supplies
Holly Ramer 7/2 /09 “Plant disease hits eastern US veggies early, hard”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jUaRHVqY9wF145J22CxSuZmkpuyQD996QTV03
CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — Tomato plants have been removed from stores in half a dozen states as a destructive and infectious
plant disease makes its earliest and most widespread appearance ever in the eastern United States. Late blight — the same disease
that caused the Irish Potato Famine in the 1840s — occurs sporadically in the Northeast, but this year's outbreak is more severe for
two reasons: infected plants have been widely distributed by big-box retail stores and rainy weather has hastened the spores'
airborne spread. The disease, which is not harmful to humans, is extremely contagious and experts say it most likely spread on
garden center shelves to plants not involved in the initial infection. It also can spread once plants reach their final destination,
putting tomato and potato plants in both home gardens and commercial fields at risk. Meg McGrath, professor of plant pathology
at Cornell University, calls late blight "worse than the Bubonic Plague for plants." "People need to realize this is probably one of
the worst diseases we have in the vegetable world," she said. "It's certain death for a tomato plant."
2. Famine inevitable – oil vs. food
Debora MacKenzie 6/16/09 “Obesity and hunger: The problem with food” http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227121.800obesity-and-hunger-the-problem-with-food.html
Unfortunately not. We produce our record harvests by harnessing fossil-fuel energy for farming. Thermodynamics rules: you can't
get something for nothing. Oil prices have begun to climb, and will keep climbing as oil sources diminish. Meanwhile, demand for
food grows. So food prices are on the rise, boosted further by climate change, demand for biofuel, and limits on soil and water.
Higher food prices mean that the impoverished eat less nutritiously - or simply less.
3. Demographics will escalate even the most minor disaster
Juniper Russo Tarascio, November 26, 2008 “Famine in America? Why 99% of the U.S. Is in Danger of Starvation”
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1218309/famine_in_america_why_99_of_the_us_pg2.html?cat=3
This transition is a distressing one indeed. While demographic shift from rural to urban lifestyles may seem like a blessing to many
who loathe the hard labor associated with rural, agrarian life, it may spell disaster for those who are struggling through life in the
Big City, hundreds or even thousands of miles from their food sources. During the Great Depression, formerly wealthy executives
stood in line for hours waiting in ragged clothes for a hand-out of hot soup, while the rural "poor" went about life as usual, barely
noticing the Depression. Survivors of the Depression who lived in agrarian regions often joked that they were "too poor to notice
the stock market crash", but they were, in fact, better off than the majority of inner-city workers in that they never went hungry. As
a result of this, the one-half of Americans with access to their own home-grown foods were exempt from the horrors of the Great
Depression. Now imagine that, instead of 50% of the population suffering from the woes of an economic collapse, it was the
99.2% who are not involved in agriculture full-time. The comparison makes 1929 look like a walk in the park. Worse still, our
food transporation services are now fully dependent on massive amounts of petroleum for transport, and the distances of food
transporation have increased from tens of miles to thousands, which makes the modern grocery network look even more fragile by
comparison.
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AT: FEDERALISM
Federalism tanked- Obama rolling back states rights- especially in the area of Social Services.
The Heritage Foundation 6-15 (“Obama’s Health Care Reform: The Demise of Federalism,” 2009
http://www.heritage.org/Press/FactSheet/fs0032.cfm)
Flexibility in Name Only: States have played a significant role in developing unique and innovative approaches to address the health
care needs of their citizens. During the 08 campaign, then-candidate Obama promoted the idea of state flexibility, but as President he
replaced this embrace of flexibility with an embrace of federal standards. Obama has already taken numerous steps to roll back many
of the flexibilities extended to states in administering Medicaid and SCHIP.
Courts will check any snowball
Robert F. Nagel, Law Professor, University of Colorado, March 2001, ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF
POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE, p. 53
In what appears to be an ambitious campaign to enhance the role of the states in the federal system, the Supreme Court has recently
issued a series of rulings that limit the power of the national government. Some of these decisions, which set boundaries to Congress's
power to regulate commerce and to enforce the provisions of the Fourteenth Amendment, establish areas that are subject (at least in
theory) only to state regulation. Others protect the autonomy of state governments by restricting congressional authority to expose
state governments to suit in either state or federal courts and to "commandeer" state institutions for national regulatory purposes.
Taken together, these decisions seem to reflect a judgment held by a slight majority of the justices that the dramatic expansion of the
national government during the twentieth century has put in jeopardy fundamental principles of constitutional structure.
Congress checks a destruction of federalism
Justice Breyer, 5-15-2000, “United States v. Morrison et al.,” Dissenting Opinion,
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=us&vol=000&invol=99-5
The majority, aware of these difficulties, is nonetheless concerned with what it sees as an important contrary consideration. To
determine the lawfulness of statutes simply by asking whether Congress could reasonably have found that aggregated local instances
significantly affect interstate commerce will allow Congress to regulate almost anything. Virtually all local activity, when instances
are aggregated, can have "substantial effects on employment, production, transit, or consumption." Hence Congress could "regulate
any crime," and perhaps "marriage, divorce, and childrearing" as well, obliterating the "Constitution's distinction between national and
local authority." Ante, at 15; Lopez, 514 U. S., at 558; cf. A. L. A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States, 295 U. S. 495, 548 (1935)
(need for distinction between "direct" and "indirect" effects lest there "be virtually no limit to the federal power"); Hammer v.
Dagenhart, 247 U. S. 251, 276 (1918) (similar observation). This consideration, however, while serious, does not reflect a
jurisprudential defect, so much as it reflects a practical reality. We live in a Nation knit together by two centuries of scientific,
technological, commercial, and environmental change. Those changes, taken together, mean that virtually every kind of activity, no
matter how local, genuinely can affect commerce, or its conditions, outside the State--at least when considered in the aggregate. Heart
of Atlanta Motel, 379 U. S., at 251. And that fact makes it close to impossible for courts to develop meaningful subject-matter
categories that would exclude some kinds of local activities from ordinary Commerce Clause "aggregation" rules without, at the same
time, depriving Congress of the power to regulate activities that have a genuine and important effect upon interstate commerce. Since
judges cannot change the world, the "defect" means that, within the bounds of the rational, Congress, not the courts, must remain
primarily responsible for striking the appropriate state/federal balance. Garcia v. San Antonio Metropolitan Transit Authority, 469 U.
S. 528, 552 (1985); ante, at 19-24 (Souter, J., dissenting); Kimel v. Florida Bd. of Regents, 528 U. S. , (2000) (slip op., at 2)
(Stevens, J., dissenting) (Framers designed important structural safeguards to ensure that, when Congress legislates, "the normal
operation of the legislative process itself would adequately defend state interests from undue infringement"); see also Kramer, Putting
the Politics Back into the Political Safeguards of Federalism, 100 Colum. L. Rev. 215 (2000) (focusing on role of political process and
political parties in protecting state interests). Congress is institutionally motivated to do so. Its Members represent state and local
district interests. They consider the views of state and local officials when they legislate, and they have even developed formal
procedures to ensure that such consideration takes place. See, e.g., Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995, Pub. L. 104-4, 109 Stat.
48 (codified in scattered sections of 2 U. S. C.). Moreover, Congress often can better reflect state concerns for autonomy in the details
of sophisticated statutory schemes than can the judiciary, which cannot easily gather the relevant facts and which must apply more
general legal rules and categories. See, e.g., 42 U. S. C. §7543(b) (Clean Air Act); 33 U. S. C. §1251 et seq. (Clean Water Act); see
also New York v. United States, 505 U. S. 144, 167-168 (1992) (collecting other examples of "cooperative federalism"). Not
surprisingly, the bulk of American law is still state law, and overwhelmingly so.
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EXT #1 – N/U (FEDERALISM DOWN)
Federalism down- Obama government is top heavy and power grabbing states rights.
WSJ 2009 (“Divided we stand,” June 13th http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204482304574219813708759806.html)
This perspective may seem especially fanciful at a time when the political tides all seem to be running in the opposite direction. In the
midst of economic troubles, an aggrandizing Washington is gathering even more power in its hands. The Obama Administration,
while considering replacing top executives at Citigroup, is newly appointing a “compensation czar” with powers to determine the
retirement packages of executives at firms accepting federal financial bailout funds. President Obama has deemed it wise for the U.S.
Treasury to take a majority ownership stake in General Motors in a last-ditch effort to revive this Industrial Age brontosaurus. Even
the Supreme Court is getting in on the act: A ruling this past week awarded federal judges powers to set the standards by which judges
for state courts may recuse themselves from cases. All of this adds up to a federal power grab that might make even FDR’s New
Dealers blush. But that’s just the point: Not surprisingly, a lot of folks in the land of Jefferson are taking a stand against an approach
that stands to make an indebted citizenry yet more dependent on an already immense federal power. The backlash, already under way,
is a prime stimulus for a neo-secessionist movement, the most extreme manifestation of a broader push for some form of devolution.
In April, at an anti-tax “tea party” held in Austin, Governor Rick Perry of Texas had his speech interrupted by cries of “secede.” The
Governor did not sound inclined to disagree. “Texas is a unique place,” he later told reporters attending the rally. “When we came into
the Union in 1845, one of the issues was that we would be able to leave if we decided to do that.”
And Secessionist backlash against government control coming now- plan isn’t key
WSJ 2009 (“Divided we stand,” June 13th http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204482304574219813708759806.html)
Secessionist feelings also percolate in Alaska, where Todd Palin, husband of Governor Sarah Palin, was once a registered member of
the Alaska Independence Party. But it is not as if the Right has a lock on this issue: Vermont, the seat of one of the most vibrant
secessionist movements, is among the country’s most politically-liberal places. Vermonters are especially upset about imperial
America’s foreign excursions in hazardous places like Iraq. The philosophical tie that binds these otherwise odd bedfellows is belief in
the birthright of Americans to run their own affairs, free from centralized control. Their hallowed parchment is Jefferson’s Declaration
of Independence, on behalf of the original 13 British colonies, penned in 1776, 11 years before the framers of the Constitution
gathered for their convention in Philadelphia. “The right of secession precedes the Constitution—the United States was born out of
secession,” Daniel Miller, leader of the Texas Nationalist Movement, put it to me. Take that, King Obama.
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AT: FEDERALISM (MODELING)
U.S. federalism isn’t modeled
Will Kymlicka, Professor of Philosophy at University of Toronto, July 2000, Canadian Journal of Law and Jurisprudence
3. Can the Model be Exported? Given this success in the West, one might expect that there would be great interest in multination
federalism in other countries around the world, from Eastern Europe to Asia and Africa, most of which contain territorially-concentrated national minorities.
The phenomenon of minority nationalism, including the demand for [*217] territorial autonomy, is a truly universal one. The countries affected by it are to be found in
Africa (for example, Ethiopia), Asia (Sri Lanka), Eastern Europe (Romania), Western Europe (France), North America (Guatemala), South America (Guyana), and
Oceania (New Zealand). The list includes countries that are old (United Kingdom) as well as new (Bangladesh), large (Indonesia) as well as small (Fiji), rich (Canada)
as well as poor (Pakistan), authoritarian (Sudan) as well as democratic (Belgium), Marxist-Leninist (China) as well as militantly anti-Marxist (Turkey). The list also
includes countries which are Buddhist (Burma), Christian (Spain), Moslem (Iran), Hindu (India), and Judaic (Israel)." n12 Indeed, some commentators describe the
conflict between states and national minorities as an ever-growing "third world war", encompassing an ever-increasing number of groups and states. n13. We need to
think creatively about how to respond to these conflicts, which will continue to plague efforts at democratization, and to cause violence, around the world. I believe that
federal or quasi-federal forms of territorial autonomy (hereafter TA) are often the only or best solution to these conflicts. To be sure, TA is not a universal formula for
managing ethnic conflict. For one thing, TA is neither feasible nor desirable for many smaller and more dispersed national minorities. For such groups, more creative
alternatives are needed. So it would be a mistake to suppose that TA can work for all national minorities, no matter how small or dispersed. But I believe it would
equally be a mistake to suppose that non-territorial forms of cultural autonomy can work for all national minorities, no matter how large or territorially concentrated.
What works best for small and dispersed minorities does not work best for large, concentrated minorities, and vice versa. n14 Where national minorities form clear
majorities in their historic homeland, and particularly where they have some prior history of self-government, it is not clear that there is any realistic alternative to TA
or multination federalism. Yet TA is strongly resisted in most of Eastern Europe, Africa and Asia. And it is resisted for the same reasons it
was resisted historically in the West: fears about disloyalty, secession and state security. n15 In many countries, majority- minority [*218]
relations are "securitized"--e.g., viewed as existential threats to the very existence of the state, which therefore require and justify repressive measures. n16 Where
ethnic relations become securitized in this way, states are guided by a series of inter-related assumptions: (a) that minorities are disloyal, not just in the sense that they
lack loyalty to the state, but also in the sense that they are likely to collaborate with current or potential enemies; (b) that minorities are likely to use whatever power
they are accorded to exit or undermine the state; (c) that a strong and stable state requires weak and disempowered minorities. Put another way, ethnic relations are seen
as a zero-sum game: anything that benefits the minority is seen as a threat to the majority; and (d) that the treatment of minorities is above all a question of national
security. Where one or more of these premises is accepted, there is virtually no room for an open debate about the merits of federalism.
The perceived connection between federalism and destabilizing the state is too powerful to allow such a debate. Indeed, in many countries,
for a minority to demand federalism is itself taken as proof of its disloyalty. It is not only advocates of secession who are put under police surveillance: anyone who
advocates federalism is also seen as subversive, since it is assumed that this is just a covert first step to secession. Under these
conditions, the whole question of what justice requires between majority and minority is submerged, since national security takes precedence
over justice, and since disloyal minorities have no legitimate claims anyway. This resistance is so strong that TA is typically only granted as a last-ditch effort to avoid
civil war, or indeed as the outcome of civil war. n17 On this issue, therefore, there is a wide and perhaps growing gulf between most Western
countries and most countries in the rest of the world. In the West, it is considered legitimate that national minorities demand TA, and indeed these
demands are increasingly accepted. Most national minorities in the West have greater autonomy than before, and none have been stripped of their autonomy. The idea
of TA is accepted in principle, and adopted in practice. The old self-image of states as unified nation-states is being replaced with the new self-image of states as
multination federations and/or as partnerships between two or more peoples. By contrast, in many countries in Eastern Europe or the Third World, many national
minorities have less autonomy than they had 30 or 50 years ago, and it is considered illegitimate for minorities to even mention autonomy, or to make any other
proposal which would involve redefining the state as a multination state. These countries [*219] cling to the old model of unitary nation-states, in which minorities
ideally are politically weak, deprived of intellectual leadership, and subject to long-term assimilation.
U.S. federalism isn’t modeled
Alfred Stepan, Wallace Sayre Professor of Government at Columbia University, 1999, Journal of Democracy Volume 10,
“Federalism and Democracy: Beyond the U.S. Model,” http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v010/10.4stepan.html
The U.S. model of federalism, in terms of the analytical categories developed in this article, is "coming- together" in its origin, "constitutionally
symmetrical" in its structure, and "demos-constraining" in its political consequences. Despite the prestige of this U.S. model of federalism, it would seem to hold
greater historical interest than contemporary attraction for other democracies. Since the emergence of nation-states on the world stage
in the after-math of the French Revolution, no sovereign democratic nation-states have ever "come together" in an enduring federation. Three
largely unitary states, however (Belgium, Spain, and India) have constructed "holding-together" federations. In contrast to the United States,
these federations are constitutionally asymmetrical and more "demos-enabling" than [End Page 32] "demos-constraining." Should the
United Kingdom ever become a federation, it would also be "holding-together" in origin. Since it is extremely unlikely that Wales, Scotland, or Northern Ireland would
have the same number of seats as England in the upper chamber of the new federation, or that the new upper chamber of the federation would be nearly equal in power
to the lower chamber, the new federation would not be "demos-constraining" as I have defined that term. Finally, it would obviously defeat the purpose of such a new
federation if it were constitutionally symmetrical. A U.K. federation, then, would not follow the U.S. model. The fact that since the French Revolution no fully
independent nation-states have come together to pool their sovereignty in a new and more powerful polity constructed in the form of a federation would seem to have
implications for the future evolution of the European Union. The European Union is composed of independent states, most of which are nation-states. These states are
indeed increasingly becoming "functionally federal." Were there to be a prolonged recession (or a depression), however, and were some EU member states to
experience very high unemployment rates in comparison to others, member states could vote to dismantle some of the economic federal structures of the federation that
were perceived as being "politically dysfunctional." Unlike most classic federations, such as the United States, the European Union will most likely continue to be
marked by the presumption of freedom of exit. Finally, many of the new federations that could emerge from the currently nondemocratic parts of
the world would probably be territorially based, multilingual, and multinational. For the reasons spelled out in this article, very few, if
any, such polities would attempt to consolidate democracy using the U.S. model of "coming-together," "demos-constraining,"
symmetrical federalism.
World No Go Boom???
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AT: FERTILIZER
Fertilizer does not harm the Environment
Bos, 07 (M.G., February, Irrigation & Drainage Systems; Feb2007, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p1-15, 15p,
http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=10&hid=6&sid=19217a3b-f882-4209-9fc4ce68b91f2639%40sessionmgr9&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=aph&AN=24940850)
To meet the food-challenge, there are two options; use current agricultural practices and expand the cropped area at the same rate
as the growth of world population or improvepractices so that crop yield per hectare increases. To illustrate the impact of
(horizontal) expansion of agricultural land, it is good to visualize the area needed. At present about 16,000,000 km2 land is used
for agriculture. A growth of 2.8% per year, matching the growth of world population, would each year require the reclamation of
about 45,000 km2 nature for agriculture. We recommend focusing on the second option so that we can avoid the unwanted
infringement into nature areas. In order to grow, the crop should be sufficient healthy to consume water. Thus plant diseases
should be controlled through the sustainable use of pesticides. For the crop to grow, this water must contain “food” that can be
transferred into bio-mass. This in turn, asks for the sustainable use of fertilizer. Sustainable rural development is seen as a process
that promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, maximizing the subsequent
social and economic benefits in an equitable (or fair) manner, without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. The
sustainability of agriculture therefore has been viewed from five perspectives within the “people, planet, profit” concept. They are
related to the; social position of the rural community, availability of water, soil fertility, crop protection and the rural economy.
World No Go Boom???
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AT: FLU (THE REGULAR ONE)
Influenza pandemic improving now and controllable – technology and vaccine production
W. H. O. -07,
(World Health Organization, 10-23-07, “Projected supply of pandemic influenza vaccine sharply increases”)
Recent scientific advances and increased vaccine manufacturing capacity have prompted experts to increase their projections of
how many pandemic influenza vaccine courses can be made available in the coming years. Last spring, the World Health
Organization (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers said that about 100 million courses of pandemic influenza vaccine based on the
H5N1 avian influenza strain could be produced immediately with standard technology. Experts now anticipate that global
production capacity will rise to 4.5 billion pandemic immunization courses per year in 2010. "With influenza vaccine production
capacity on the rise, we are beginning to be in a much better position vis-à-vis the threat of an influenza pandemic," Dr MariePaule Kieny, Director of the Initiative for Vaccine Research at WHO, said today. "However, although this is significant progress,
it is still far from the 6.7 billion immunization courses that would be needed in a six month period to protect the whole world."
"Accelerated preparedness activities must continue, backed by political impetus and financial support, to further bridge the still
substantial gap between supply and demand," she said. This year, manufacturers have been able to step up production capacity of
trivalent (three viral strains) seasonal influenza vaccines to an estimated 565 million doses, from 350 million doses produced in
2006, according to the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations. According to experts working
in this field, the yearly production capacity for seasonal influenza vaccine is expected to rise to 1 billion doses in 2010, provided
corresponding demand exists. This would help manufacturers to be able to deliver around 4.5 billion pandemic influenza vaccine
courses because a pandemic vaccine would need about eight times less antigen, the substance that stimulates an immune
response. Vaccine production capacity is linked to the amount of antigen that has to be used to make each dose of the vaccine.
Scientists have recently discovered they can reduce the amount of antigen used to produce pandemic influenza vaccines by using
water-in-oil substances that enhance the immune response. The progress was reported Friday at the first meeting of a WHO
Advisory Group on pandemic influenza vaccine production and supply. The Global Action Plan Advisory Group, an
independent, international committee of 10 members, met at WHO headquarters one year after eight new strategies to increase
pandemic influenza vaccine were identified and published in the WHO Global pandemic influenza action plan to increase
vaccine supply. At the Advisory Group meeting, other progress on the Global Action Plan was discussed. WHO reported it is
setting up a training hub that would serve as a source of technology transfer to developing countries.
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AT: FOOD PRICE SPIKES
1. Food Prices fluctuate all the time, this is nothing new.
Wade 07, Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), July 26, 2007 Thursday, First Edition, Matt Wade, Economics Writer, “It's the
underlying inflation, stupid;” , THE ECONOMY, NEWS AND FEATURES; Pg. 4, Nexis
BORROWERS have been warned to brace for an interest rate rise after the next Reserve Bank board meeting in a fortnight. But why
is an increase on the cards when the inflation rate is near the bottom of the central bank's target range at just 2.1 per cent? The answer
lies in the difference between the headline inflation rate and the underlying rate. Measures of underlying inflation eliminate the oneoff distortions in the consumer price index often caused by items like fresh fruit, vegetables and petrol, which can fluctuate wildly
from quarter to quarter. The value in doing this has been underscored over the past 18 months as the dramatic rise and fall of banana
prices, drought-related food price fluctuations, and the ups and downs of bowser prices have played havoc with the headline inflation
rate. The Reserve relies heavily on measures of underlying inflation to guide its decisions on interest rates because they give the most
accurate indication of real inflationary pressures in the economy.
2. Food Prices in the U.S. will gradually increase for the time being for four main reasons.
China Daily, 07 Chinadaily.com.cn, September 28, 2007 Friday, PRICE INCREASES ARE A MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE,
https://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4098998436&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDoc
No=26&resultsUrlKey=29_T4098998439&cisb=22_T4098998438&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=227171&docNo=35
Though the consumer price index (CPI) keeps rising rapidly, the producer price index (PPI), a leading indicator of production costs,
shows a declining trend. This suggests that the increase in the CPI is mainly the result of price hikes for food. The decline of the growth rate for nonfood prices shows that supply and demand are stable, providing the basis for a gradual descent in prices later this year. According to the
National Bureau of Statistics, the PPI grew by 2.4 percent in July, compared with 3.3 percent in January. The PPI growth was 0.2 percentage points higher in August
than in July, but the overall trend is still downward. The slowing growth in the PPI is mainly the result of declining production costs. Though the cost of living rises
with food prices, the slowing growth of production costs means an overall trend of slow growth of the PPI. The rate of CPI growth hit 6.5 percent in August, leading to
3.9 percent year-on-year growth from January to August. Higher food costs have led the faster rate of CPI growth. The prices of industrial consumer goods
and services have risen by less than 1 percent this year, while food prices have soared, which has been a major factor in increasing the CPI growth
rate. The relationship between supply and demand affects price levels in the short term. The huge supply potential, together with
restricted growth in demand, is a basic reason for the declining growth rate of non-food prices. The most recent round of economic growth kicked off after
the shortage economy was eliminated. In this new phase, output has reached a certain scale, productivity is increasing, the supplies of capital and labor
are abundant and the supply of applied technologies is expanding. As the recent round of reforms takes hold, enterprises' ability to react to market
fluctuations will improve. This means the potential to expand production and supply is huge. When there is demand, there will be a
corresponding growth in supply. On the other hand, demand is getting more and more restricted. Since 2003, the central government has tightened its control of
land and capital. It has put in place multiple measures, such as raising the threshold to control the unchecked binge on fixed assets investment. Since last year, the
government has controlled the export of energy consuming, polluting and resource-intensive products by lowering tax rebates and collecting export tariffs. It has also
tightened control of the export of products affected by trade conflicts. Generally speaking, the control of demand growth has improved. Having a high supply potential
and controlled demand means a coordinated relationship between supply and demand. The possibility of a supply shortage or inflation is slight. What is more, partial
oversupply and overcapacity could be possible in the future. Rising food prices, which have a huge impact on the CPI growth rate, do not mean there is
something wrong with agricultural production. Grain production increased every year from 2004 to 2006. That continued this summer, when output saw a
1.3 percent year-on-year increase. The foundation for the grain supply is good. Four short-term reasons contribute to the rising food prices. First,
world grain production decreased last year, and major producers such as the United States have been using corn to make fuel. Second,
the State grain reserve has not caught up with the changing market. Third, the domestic capacity for making ethanol from corn has
improved. Fourth, food prices were affected by epidemics and seasonal factors. Considered from a long-term perspective, these factors
reflect a normal trend in economic development. The prices of agricultural and food products will gradually increase with
industrialization, urbanization and rises in income levels. This reflects a natural adjustment of industrial-agricultural and urban-rural
income distribution patterns. It also means farmers and rural residents are enjoying the fruits of economic growth.
3. High food prices are not necessarily bad—poorer farmers make more money too.
Carey 2008 (John, senior correspondent in BusinessWeek's Washington bureau and received awards from the American Institute of
Biological Sciences and former editor of The Scientist and the National & International Wildlife magazines, “Is Ethanol Getting a
Bum Rap?” May 1)
Certainly, a rapid rise in food prices brings misery to poor countries. But over the long haul, "it's not obvious that high grain prices are
inherently bad," asserts Nathanael Greene, senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council. Years of cheap, subsidized
grain in the U.S. and Europe have left farmers in the developing world unable to compete. They can't invest in better seed, machinery,
or cultivation practices (page 26). As a result, global average yields for corn, wheat, and rice are less than half what the world's top
10% of farmers achieve. While American corn farmers produce 150 bushels per acre, farms in the developing world often get only 30.
"If there is a crime against humanity, it is these low yields," not biofuels, says Richard Hamilton, CEO of Ceres Inc., a Thousand Oaks
(Calif.) startup developing biofuel crops. Those low yields will improve if farmers make more money. In the long term, "high prices
will lead these countries to produce more of their own food," says Morris, easing the supply shortages.
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EXT #2 – FOOD PRICE INCREASE INNEVITABLE
Famine is Inevitable in the Status Quo, the Dollar Decline Plummits Food Prices
Scott Thrill 6/6/08 (staff writer “Is Famine Inevitable” pg. online @ http://www.alternet.org/environment/87071//)
These inconvenient truths generate a logical but nevertheless callous question: Who will starve, and who will survive? Even that
has a profit motive, as it should, considering that the oil sector's economic shenanigans -- occupations, ethanol, record-setting
paydays -- under the Bush administration have brought us to this disturbing tightrope. The cold pursuit of profit promises to
kick-start further genetic experimentation to make up for what nature cannot provide, thanks to hyperproduction and global
warming's incoming floods, droughts and fires. And the fact that we grow food now to put not into our bodies but into our cars
only draws that dystopian future closer. Shifting the auto market to another fuel source would go a long way to staving it off, if
political and popular will could only be galvanized from its comfy couch to start saving and not wasting money and food."The
best way to avert future famines on the supply and price side," concludes Woodall, "is to ensure that there are enough food
reserves that can feed the hungry in countries in crisis, (and) offer reasonable prices to consumers in the developed world and fair
prices for farmers. Under the current agriculture policies, the supply and price of food staples has been very volatile, and there is
no safety valve to ensure that the supply of commodities can match the need of consumers. Farmer-owned reserves and the reestablishment of some government supply management policies could greatly ease the year-to-year price shocks faced by
development agencies, grocery store consumers and farmers."But that would be a solution for those interested in finding one.
Considering that billions are already on the edge of starvation, interest in earnings rather than solutions seems to be the main
problem. Until that changes, the poor as always will remain the petri dish for such economic speculations and resource shortages.
They are already at ground zero in the war against an inevitable famine."Skyrocketing prices are hitting them the hardest,"
Luescher continues, "those who already spend 60 percent, sometimes even 80 percent, of their budget on food. These groups
include the rural landless, pastoralists and the majority of small-scale farmers. But the impact is greatest on the urban poor. And
the rises are producing what we're calling the "new face of hunger" -- people who suddenly can no longer afford the food they
see on store shelves because prices have soared beyond their reach."
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AT: FREE TRADE IMPACTS
(__) Increased trade has no effect on decreasing risk of conflict between nations
Gelpi and Greico 05, Associate Professor and Professor of Political Science, Duke University (Christopher, Joseph, “Democracy,
Interdependence, and the Sources of the Liberal Peace”, Journal of Peace Research)
As we have already emphasized, increasing levels of trade between an autocratic and democratic country are unlikely to constrain the
former from initiating militarized disputes against the latter . As depicted in Figure 1, our analysis indicates that an increase in trade dependence by an autocratic challenger on a
democratic target from zero to 5% of the former's GDP would increase the probability of the challenger’s dispute initiation from about 0.31% to 0.29%. Thus, the overall probability of dispute initiation by an autocratic
increased trade does little or nothing to alter that risk.
Increases in trade dependence also have little effect on the likelihood that one autocracy will initiate a conflict with another. In this
instance, the probability of dispute initiation remains constant at 0.33% regardless of the challenger’s level of trade dependence.
country against a democracy is fairly high (given the rarity of disputes) at 23 nearly .3% per country per year. Moreover,
(__) Trade inevitable – globalization.
BRAINARD 08 Vice President and Director for Global Economy and Development [Lael, Senate Committee on Finance, “America’s Trade Agenda:
Examining the Trade Enforcment Act of 2007,” Senate testimony, 5/22/2008, brookings.edu/testimony/2008/0522_trade_brainard.aspx]
We are experiencing a period of breathtaking global integration that dwarfs previous episodes . Global trade has more than doubled in the
last 7 years alone. The entry of India and China amounts to a 70 percent expansion of the global labor force—with wages less than a tenth of the level in wealthy economies. This
expansion is more than three times bigger than the globalization challenge of the 1970s and 80s associated with the sequential advances of Japan, South Korea, and
the other Asian tigers. It is also far larger than the more recent integration of the North American market. If , as is now widely expected, these trends in
population and productivity growth continue, the time will soon approach where the balance of global economic heft flips. According to my colleague, Homi Kharas, the so-called emerging
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies will account for over half of world income by 2050, up from 13 percent today , while the share of
the G7 wealthiest economies will slip from 57 percent today to one quarter of world income in 2050. And by 2030, 83 percent of the world’s middle class consumers will reside in what are today considered emerging markets.
(__) Single blows against trade don’t spread—no impact
Ikenson 2009 – director of Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies (Daniel, Center for Trade Policy Studies, Free Trade Bulletin 37, “A protectionism fling”,
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651, WEA)
Still even more importantly, the trade
rules are not so restrictive that governments obsess over finding ways around them. It is not the existence of the rules that
Governments typically are not looking for excuses to raise trade barriers.
compels countries to liberalize trade.
If compliance were the primary motivation for countries to
liberalize trade, we would not observe applied tariff rates that are so much lower than the maximum allowable rates. And we would likely observe much greater use of the various trade remedies across industries and more
Trade liberalization is motivated by self-interest, and the disparities between bound and applied rates are
most members have a preference for openness
invocation of restrictions in the name of health and other technical barriers to trade.
explained by the fact that
. There are real benefits, beyond the reciprocal openings of others' markets, to keeping one's own trade barriers low.
Nevertheless, governments have been invoking protectionist measures over the past several months. Here are just a few examples:6z * In India, tariffs and other restrictions have been raised on some steel products; * Ecuador
raised tariffs on 940 different products by a range of 5 to 20 percentage points; * Indonesia limited the number of points of entry into domestic commerce for imported products and is requiring its civil servants to buy only
Indonesianmade products; and * Argentina made licensing requirements more onerous for so-called sensitive products, such as auto parts, textiles, TVs, and shoes. And here is how a top-circulation American daily newspaper
described the global flirtation with trade barriers in December: Moving to shield battered domestic manufacturers from foreign imports, Indonesia is slapping restrictions on at least 500 products this month, demanding special
licenses and new fees on imports. Russia is hiking tariffs on imported cars, poultry and pork. France is launching a state fund to protect French companies from foreign takeovers. Officials in Argentina and Brazil are seeking
There may be nothing necessarily incorrect about the facts reported. But the
tone and implications are possibly misleading. It is hard to accept the otherwise marginally significant facts without also accepting the provocative metaphors and sense of impending doom.
Those actions have less antagonistic explanations and more benign interpretations . The actions of Indonesia, Argentina, and Brazil are
consistent with their rights under the WTO agreements and will have a negligible collective impact on world trade. Russia is not even a member of
to raise tariffs on products from imported wine and textiles to leather goods and peaches.7
the WTO and frequently behaves outside of international norms, so its actions have very limited representative value. And France has intervened to block foreign takeovers of French companies on other occasions this decade,
so its actions are not particularly noteworthy. The popular media usually lacks nuance in its accounting of trade policy events and often intones that the present will be a replay of the 1930s.
(__) Trade only pacifies some constituencies—it can’t solve in the countries with the biggest impacts
GOLDSTONE 2007 (P.R., PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science and a member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is
a non-resident research fellow at the Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University, AlterNet, September 25, http://www.alternet.org/audits/62848/?page=entire)
Trade creates vested interests in peace, but these interests affect policy only to
the extent they wield political clout. In many of the states whose behavior we most wish to alter, such sectors -- internationalist, export-oriented, reliant
on global markets -- lack a privileged place at the political table. Until and unless these groups gain a greater voice within their own political system, attempts to
rely on the presumed constraining effects of global trade carry substantially greater risk than commonly thought. A few examples tell much. Quasidemocratic Russia is a state whose principal exposure to global markets lies in oil, a commodity whose considerable strategic coercive power the Putin regime freely invokes. The oil sector has effectively
merged with the state, making Russia's deepening ties to the global economy a would-be weapon rather than an avenue of restraint.
Russian economic liberalization without political liberalization is unlikely to pay the strong cooperative dividends many expect. China will prove perhaps the ultimate test of
the Pax Mercatoria. The increasing international Chinese presence in the oil and raw materials extraction sectors would seem to bode ill, given
such sectors' consistent history elsewhere of urging state use of threats and force to secure these interests. Much will come down to the relative political
American policymakers should beware claims of globalization's axiomatic pacifying effects.
influence of export-oriented sectors heavily reliant on foreign direct investment and easy access to the vast Western market versus the political power of their sectoral opposites: uncompetitive state-owned enterprises, energy
and mineral complexes with important holdings in the global periphery, and a Chinese military that increasingly has become a de facto multi-sectoral economic-industrial conglomerate. Actions to bolster the former groups at
At home, as even advanced sectors feel the competitive pressures of globalization, public support for internationalism and global
engagement will face severe challenges. As more sectors undergo structural transformation, the natural coalitional constituency for
committed global activist policy will erode; containing the gathering backlash will require considerable leadership. Trade can indeed be a palliative; too often, however, we seem to
think of economic interdependence as a panacea; the danger is that in particular instances it may prove no more than a placebo.
the expense of the latter would be effort well spent.
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EXT #1 – DOESN’T DECREASE CONFLICT
Statistical analysis shows free trade doesn’t decrease the probability of war
Gelpi and Greico 05, Associate Professor and Professor of Political Science, Duke University (Christopher, Joseph,
“Democracy, Interdependence, and the Sources of the Liberal Peace”, Journal of Peace Research)
Clearly these results do not support hypotheses 2, 3, or 4. That is, the net impact of challenger trade dependence remains slightly negative but does not approach statistical significance across
the full range of variation in target trade dependence. This
pattern of 17 coefficients suggests two central conclusions about the impact of trade on
conflict. First, trade dependence on the part of a potential challenger does not – either by itself or in combination with trade
dependence on the part of the potential defender – reduce the probability that the potential challenger will initiate a dispute. And second,
challenger trade dependence also does not exacerbate the incidence of dispute initiation.
Free trade threatens democracy – cedes political control to multinational corporations.
Kuttner 4/22/2001 Editor of the American Prospect (Robert, The Boston Globe, “NAFTA-Style Trade Bad for Democracy,”
CommonDreams, http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0422-01.htm, EA)
NAFTA pays lip service to labor and environmental protections, but the weak laws on Mexican lawbooks are honored more in the breech. As a result, American companies that
shift production to Mexico outrun hard-won labor and environmental protections in the United States. Business, in other words, is
keen to harmonize property rights, but not labor, environmental, or consumer rights . And if NAFTA becomes a hemisphere-wide
arrangement, the social balance tilts even more dramatically to business, at the expense of both sovereignty and social regulation. Brazil,
for example, takes a very different view of pharmaceutical patent protections than the United States. Brazil treats life-saving drugs as social goods. American pharmaceutical companies, not
surprisingly, treat Brazilian policy as patent infringement. It is the defiance of the big global drug companies by Brazil (and by India) that has sharply brought down the cost of AIDS drugs in
the Third World. But if NAFTA is extended, Brazil and its independent drug companies could be more easily sued by American rivals who have a very different set of public health priorities.
Beneath the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas and kindred arrangements lurks an intriguing new ideology. This ideology
holds that corporations are really agents of the spread of democracy. I recently participated in a debate at Columbia University sponsored by the Reuters
Foundation, on the health of democracy. One debater was Nancy Boswell, the managing director of a worldwide organization called Transparency International. This well-intentioned group,
funded by businesses, banks, and foundations, has branches in some 80 countries. It sees itself as fighting corruption in Third World countries and thereby alleviating poverty, by pressing for
In this view, nothing promotes
democracy as much as the spread of free-market capitalism. It's an audacious claim, and it may even be half-true. In Mexico, NAFTA probably hastened the
downfall of the single-party regime. But in South Korea, a reformist government had to abandon half of its social program to reassure foreign investors. Historically, democracy has
been spread mostly by social movements, not by corporations. The free-market ''transparency'' promoted by business actually
promotes a narrow brand of democracy that is a sanitized version of American capitalism, circa 1890 - full rights for investors and for corporations, at the
US-style corporate accounting, enforceable strictures against bribery, and the openness to investment characteristic of the United States.
expense of laws that protect labor, the environment, and consumers. Today, some business leaders are cautious reformers and business is beginning, grudgingly, to accept some minimal social
standards as part of free trade agreements, but only because of strenuous citizen and labor organizing. However, this
social rebalancing works much more effectively
within one country, where voters and social movements can be direct counterweights to corporations by recourse to democratic
politics. There are no citizens of the republic of NAFTA. That's why these trade deals threaten democracy, even as they claim to
spread it.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
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EXT #2 – TRADE INEVITABLE
Zero risk of protectionist backsliding
Anderson 2009 – head of Asia-Pacific economics for UBS (8/17, Jonathan, Cajing, “Economist: Reality Check for Prophets of Protectionism”,
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-17/110225722.html, WEA)
One of the greatest fears among investors today is that the global economy will be affected by the return of protectionism. Many remember the 1930s as a disastrous
time for trade. Not only did rich countries sink in the Great Depression, but they gradually closed doors to global trade and capital flow, starting with the passage of the
infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the United States in 1930. International trade spiraled down. It's been estimated that total global trade volume fell by nearly twothirds between 1929 and 1933, dealing a crushing blow to growth and development hopes around the world. Now, here we are again, at the beginning of what some
commentators call the "Great Depression II." And according to the World Trade Organization, we are seeing a sharp uptick in protectionist
measures around the world. Are we risking another wave of trade destruction that closes the world's doors? And could a new wave crush China
and the rest of the emerging world? The short answer is no. We do not worry much about the protectionism issue. We think these fears are vastly overstated
for four reasons. First, conditions in the global economy are not that bad. If we look back at the Great Depression in the 1930s, we find the United States
economy contracted nearly 30 percent in real terms, and more than a quarter of the entire workforce was unemployed. Up to one-third of the economy simply
disappeared. In many European economies, the impact was greater still. How do things look today? At last count, the United States, euro zone countries, and Japan had
seen a cumulative GDP contraction of 6 percent or so, with average unemployment nearing 9 percent. And this is probably as bad as it will get; the
world economy is now expected to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2009. Of course, the recovery may be extremely weak. But even if developed
countries don't grow at all over the next 18 months, the situation still compares favorably with the events of 75 years ago. In other words, there's just no reason to look
for the same kind of protectionist reaction today. We should add that we're not seeing it. The WTO has reported a sharp increase in various protectionist actions, claims
and cases, but the overall economic impact of these measures is still small by any standard. This is likely to be the worst it will get. Second, the effects of "plain
vanilla" protectionism are highly exaggerated. Although Smoot-Hawley passed in 1930, raising tariffs on thousands of products, most
economists agree the real attack on global trade didn't come until the breakup of the international monetary and exchange rate
arrangements in 1931, and a corresponding collapse of global finance. Of course, many pundits now worry about the fall of the U.S. dollar as a global invoicing and
reserve currency, and that this could have a similarly negative impact on trade and financing. However, we should stress that as bad as the U.S. economy looks at
present, it's still the best thing we have. The European Union is beset by crushing regional disparities and political pressures, with significant basket cases hiding inside
its borders. Japan simply doesn't have the necessary dynamism or commitment to globalization. And as far as fiscal balance sheets are concerned, all three major
regions have equally significant problems. The United States stands alone in terms of how fast the Federal Reserve has expanded its monetary balance sheet, raising
specific concerns about U.S. inflation and its impact on the dollar. But as one can see by looking at U.S. economic data, we are still falling into a deflation cycle for the
time being, with nary a hint of inflationary pressure yet. We fully expect the Fed to be able to rein in the monetary expansion quickly if these pressures arise. We should
add that, although it's fashionable to look at China and the yuan as a rising competitor to the dollar, this is simply not a realistic theme for the next 10 years – and
perhaps for much longer. China doesn't have an open capital account, which means there is little opportunity or interest in holding the yuan as a serious asset. If
anything, the impact of the current global crisis is likely to convince mainland authorities to be slow in opening their borders. China also doesn't have the kind of deep,
domestic financial markets required of a global reserve currency; the bond market in particular is still in its infancy. As a result, it will be a long time indeed before the
yuan starts playing a real role on the global stage. Third, even if we do see an unexpected wave of protectionism, emerging countries have less to
lose than the developed world. Let's start by asking this question: When we talk about "protectionism," what exactly are we trying to protect? The
answer is, of course, domestic workers and domestic jobs. In what areas do the labor forces of the United States, Europe and Japan work? The vast
majority are in services and construction, sectors that don't compete much directly on the international arena. Only 10 to 15 percent are manufacturing
jobs, and these are mostly in capital intensive, high-tech industries such as autos, precision machinery and high-end electronics. By contrast, manufactured goods that
China and other emerging markets sell – toys, textiles, running shoes, sporting goods, light electronics, etc. – are barely made at all in the G3 countries. Rich countries
outsourced most of these low-end, labor-intensive jobs a long time ago. A related point holds for commodities and raw materials, which make up much of the rest of the
exports from the low-income world. All three major, developed regions are heavily dependent on imported resources, and this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable
future. The bottom line here is that even if we do get a big wave of protectionism in developed countries, it unlikely to be aimed specifically at
low-end goods from the developed world. Rather, it makes more sense to protect the auto industry along with high-end equipment and chemical
manufacturers. Moreover, any tariffs and barriers placed on toys and textiles are much more likely to raise consumer prices than crush volumes, given the absence of
competitive domestic industries that could take advantage of protection to grab local market shares. The final point concerns financial leverage. There has never been a
time in recent global economic history when the developed world was so dependent on low-income countries for financial resources. For the first time, the emerging
world is a net financial creditor. Given the rapid expansion of public debts, the major developed countries are extremely interested in seeing China
and other low-income countries continue to buy U.S. Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds and various European debt instruments. The impact of a
big, potential pullout from global bond markets actually could be much more negative than positive in terms of protecting domestic industries. So emerging
markets now are in a much better bargaining position than at any time in the past. Protectionist fears are likely to continue to bother investors over
the next year or two, and perhaps longer. But we don't think the real situation supports these fears.
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EXT #3 – NO ESCALATION
Zero risk of a trade war
Suominen 2009 (transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and trade economist at the Inter-American Development Bank in
Washington, 2009 (Kati, “A New Age Of Protectionism? the Economic Crisis And Transatlantic Trade Policy”, the German Marshall Fund Of The United
States, http://www.gmfus.org//doc/Suominen%20final.pdf, March 2009)
This paper makes three arguments First, fears of an all-out trade war and spiraling protectionist backlash are exaggerated. There are a
great
many insurance policies in place to pre-empt anything akin to the beggar-thy-neighbor policies of the 1930s, including a solid
multilateral system with bound tariffs and a credible dispute settlement mechanism, dozens of bilateral free trade deals with often deep
tariff commitments, solid intellectual backing for free trade, well-organized export lobbies, and the unprecedentedly large stake that countries around
the world have in the policies of their trading partners and the fortunes of the global trading system.
World No Go Boom???
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AT: FREE TRADE SOLVES INTERDEPENDANCE
Trade is not key to economic interdependence
STREETEN 2001 (Paul, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Boston University and Founder and Chairman of the journal World
Development, Finance and Development, Vol 38, No 2, June)
Trade is, of course, only one, and not the most important, of many manifestations of economic interdependence. Others are the flow of
factors of production—capital, technology, enterprise, and various types of labor—across frontiers and the exchange of assets, the
acquisition of legal rights, and the international flows of information and knowledge. The global flow of foreign exchange has reached
the incredible figure of $2 trillion per day, 98 percent of which is speculative. The multinational corporation has become an important
agent of technological innovation and technology transfer. In 1995, the sales of multinationals amounted to $7 trillion, with these
companies' sales outside their home countries growing 20-30 percent faster than exports.
Interdependence does not solve war—both world wars disprove this
COPELAND 1996 (Dale, Assistant Professor in the Department of Government and Foreign Affairs at the University of Virginia,
International Security, Spring)
Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of
aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of interdependence can be maintained, liberals
assert, we have reason for optimism. Realists dismiss the liberal argument, arguing that high interdependence increases rather than
decreases the probability of war. In anarchy, states must constantly worry about their security. Accordingly, interdependence meaning mutual dependence and thus vulnerability - gives states an incentive to initiate war, if only to ensure continued access to
necessary materials and goods. The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining
the run-ups to the two World Wars. The period up to World War I exposes a glaring anomaly for liberal theory: the European powers
had reached unprecedented levels of trade, yet that did not prevent them from going to war. Realists certainly have the correlation
right - the war was preceded by high interdependence - but trade levels had been high for the previous thirty years; hence, even if
interdependence was a necessary condition for the war, it was not sufficient. At first glance, the period from 1920 to 1940 seems to
support liberalism over realism. In the 1920s, interdependence was high, and the world was essentially peaceful; in the 1930s, as
entrenched protectionism caused interdependence to fall, international tension rose to the point of world war. Yet the two most
aggressive states in the system during the 1930s, Germany and Japan, were also the most highly dependent despite their efforts
towards autarchy, relying on other states, including other great powers, for critical raw materials. Realism thus seems correct in
arguing that high dependence may lead to conflict, as states use war to ensure access to vital goods. Realism's problem with the
interwar era, however, is that Germany and Japan had been even more dependent in the 1920s, yet they sought war only in the late
1930s when their dependence, although still significant, had fallen.
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AT: GAY RIGHTS (AND OTHER IMPACTS)
1. Squo Solves
Nico Sifra Quintana policy analyst for the American Progress Institute July 1 2009
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/07/lgbt_rights.html
Every day the LGBT community seems to be experiencing a new expansion of civil rights. President Barack Obama signed on
June 17 a Presidential Memorandum on Federal Benefits and Non-Discrimination that grants non-discrimination protections and
some same-sex partner benefits for LGBT federal employees. On May 6, Maine Governor John Baldacci (D-ME) signed into law a
bill legalizing same-sex marriage, making Maine the fifth state—along with Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, and Iowa—to
allow same-sex marriage. And the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act,
which, if passed by the Senate and signed by the president, would expand protections under the federal hate crimes law to LGBT
people.
2. Employment discrimination is an Alt Caus
Nico Sifra Quintana policy analyst for the American Progress Institute July 1 2009
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/07/lgbt_rights.html
Equal rights and protections under federal law would provide LGBT Americans with increased employment security and help
protect them from falling below the federal poverty level. According to the Williams Institute, separate surveys have revealed that
16 to 68 percent of LGB people report experiencing employment discrimination. And the Transgender Law Center found that 70
percent of transgender people surveyed in California experienced workplace harassment related to their gender identity.
Approximately half of survey respondents also reported experiencing some loss of employment either as a direct or possible
result of their gender identity. Nevertheless, no federal laws currently exist protecting all LGBT workers from employment
discrimination.
3. Military discrimination is an Alt Caus
ABS News 3/8/09 “Wage 'all-out war' vs discrimination, LGBT group urges AFP” http://www.abscbnnews.com/nation/03/08/09/wage-all-out-war-vs-discrimination-lgbt-group-urges-afp
"We welcome the statements made by top military officials declaring that lesbians and gays are now accepted in the military.
However, this is not insufficient. There has to be a concrete and comprehensive non-discrimination policy in the military," Project
Equality spokesperson Jonas Bagas was quoted as saying. "There has to be a clear policy explicitly stating that anyone, regardless
of sexual orientation and gender identity, can join the military provided that they qualify for military service," Bagas said. Project
Equality also urged the AFP to address other forms of discrimination within the AFP, particularly discrimination once gays and
lesbians enter into service. "Once inside, LGBT soldiers can encounter other forms of discrimination and abuse. That, too, should
be prohibited," Bagas added. "The military is a macho establishment. Hearing pro-LGBT statements from its officials may be
refreshing, but they cannot hide the strong anti-LGBT sentiment in the military," Bagas said.
World No Go Boom???
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Impact File 2.0
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AT: GENOCIDE
1. Status quo measures prevent genocide
A. Early warning system
CSM, 2004 (Abraham McLaughlin, 4/7, http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0407/p10s02-woaf.htm)
There are, for instance, new anti-genocide structures: The UN and US now have officials devoted exclusively to the prevention of mass
killings. New forums for crimes against humanity have emerged with the establishment of the International Criminal Court in The Hague last year,
Belgian courts has tested the limits of "universal justice" in human rights cases, and the ongoing Yugoslav and Rwanda war-crimes tribunals. UN
chief Kofi Annan is expected to announce Wednesday a new early-warning system to help prevent genocide.
B. The ICC
Daily News Leader, 2002 (7/5, l/n)
The International Criminal Court serves as a deterrent to monsters; it provides a venue for the powerless to have a voice. Anyone
committing genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity - Americans included - in the 74 nations that have ratified the treaty
could be prosecuted for those crimes. Unless we have some reason to fear, something to hide, we should be supporting this treaty, not deriding it.
C. Tribunals
Waldorf, 2001 (Lars, International Justice Tribune, 7/27, l/n)
In his letter, Philpot raises the real possibility that sending Akayesu to Mali and Ruggiu to Italy could create "inequality among detainees" if Italy has more favorable
rules governing parole. That's because, under the Tribunal's rules, eligibility for pardon or commutation of sentences depends on the legislation of the state where the
sentence is being served. Dieng pointed out that it will be up to President Pillay to decide where Akayesu serves his sentence. Without referring to Philpot's letter, the
Registrar's spokesman, Kingsley Moghalu stated: "We feel that if the sentences are enforced in Africa ... the work of the Tribunal will have a greater
deterrent effect in the continent. The Rwandan genocide is simply the fundamental problem of the continent writ large, that is, impunity."
2. Nuclear war outweighs.
Kahn 99 (Paul W, Professor of Law, Yale Law School, Journal of International Law and Politics, 31 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 349, Winter/Spring, l/n)
If the law of human rights protects individuals from physical abuse at the hands of state officials, but leaves them open to nuclear
holocaust, it appears to be arbitrary and irrational. Again, on what principle can the genocide convention protect groups from
intentional efforts to destroy them, 86 but be indifferent to the far greater destruction such groups would suffer in a nuclear war? And if
environmental law is about protection of nature, what is the principle that would protect nature from particular pollutants but not from total destruction? If international law purports to be
principled, how can these principles fail to apply to the use of nuclear weapons? But is contemporary international law defined by these normative justifications or
is it about state interests as perceived by the nation-states of the world and expressed in their consent to specific legal propositions?
3. No moral obligation to help the victims of genocide – responsibility falls on the targeted group
Kuperman, 2002 (Alan, Visiting Scholar for Center for International Studies, USC, http://www.isanet.org/noarchive/kuperman.html)
As the above discussion should make clear, there is no humanitarian intervention policy that the international community can adopt that is likely to
eliminate completely massive civilian violence from communal conflicts. However, two key lessons from this study can help to inform a more enlightened
intervention policy. First, although perhaps disconcerting, we must acknowledge that such tragedies are most often the direct result of
conscious decisions taken by leaders of the subordinate groups that become the primary victims of massive civilian violence. These
subordinate-group leaders launch violent challenges against the state in full knowledge that the state will retaliate violently against
members of their own group. When thousands of subordinate group civilians are slaughtered, the international community is shocked, but leaders of
the group are not because they intentionally pursued this disastrous outcome. International voices of opinion – politicians, media, NGOs, the UN
and other international organizations – react to such violence by proclaiming that the international community has a “responsibility” to protect the
innocent civilians of the subordinate group. However, regardless of whether one believes in a general cosmopolitan responsibility to those outside one’s
own political community, most observers would agree that the primary responsibility for protecting a group falls on the group itself, and
by delegation upon its leaders. If a group chooses to sacrifice its own civilians, it is not obvious that the international community
automatically has a responsibility to deny the group that choice.
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EXT #2 – NUCLEAR WAR
And, our impact turns yours – nuclear war means genocide
Lippman, 1998 (Matthew, Counsel for Bosnia and Herzegovina in its Suit Against Yugoslavia in the ICJ – International Lawyer, Arizona Journal
of International and Comparative Law, 15 Ariz. J. Int'l & Comp. Law 415, l/n)
In July 1996, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion on the legality of nuclear weapons which, intra alia, addressed whether the deployment of
atomic armaments contravened the Genocide Convention. 545 The majority noted that the number of deaths resulting from the use of nuclear weapons
would be "enormous" and that the victims, "in certain cases" may include persons of a particular national, ethnic, racial, or ethnic group.
546 The intention to destroy such groups "could be inferred from the fact that the user of the nuclear weapon . . . omitted to take account of the well-known effect of the use of such
weapons." 547 The Court then cautioned that the intent to commit [*503] genocide could not be solely inferred from the resort to such weapons and that "due account of the circumstances specific to each case" must be
considered. 548 Judge Weeramantry, in his dissenting opinion, argued that decisionmakers deploying nuclear weapons must be presumed to comprehend the resulting catastrophic circumstances. 549 The ability of nuclear
weapons to "wipe out blocks of population ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions" leaves "no doubt that the weapon targets, in whole or in part, the national group of the State at which it is directed." 550 Nuremberg
extermination of a civilian population, in whole or in part, is a crime against humanity -- "this is precisely what a nuclear weapon
when employed with the necessary intent the use of nuclear weapons would
constitute genocide. The requisite intent ordinarily must be independently established, but could be implied from circumstances such as the
unannounced and massive first-strike targeting of cities or population centers. 552 Judge Weeramantry, on the other hand, argued that the
resulting damage made the use of nuclear arms inherently genocidal; the requisite intent could be implied from the act of launching such weapons. 553 The World
Court judgment was significant in suggesting that under the appropriate circumstances a genocidal intent may be implied and need not be independently established.
Judge Weeramantry extended this argument, contending that the deployment of nuclear weapons was inherently genocidal. He argued that it was unnecessary to
independently establish the requisite intent -- an individual deploying nuclear armaments must comprehend that the attack will result in the mass
extermination of a national group. 554
held that the
achieves." 551 In summary, the majority opinion concluded that
World No Go Boom???
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165/420
AT: GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS
(__) Even if we stop greenhouse gas emissions, warming is inevitable
Longley 8 (Robert, “ Global Warming Inevitable This Century, NSF Study Finds” http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/technologyandresearch/a/climatetochange.htm)
Despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and a greater increase in sea level are inevitable during this
century, according to a new study performed by a team of climate modelers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. Indeed, say
the researchers, whose work was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), globally averaged surface air temperatures would still rise one
degree Fahrenheit (about a half degree Celsius) by the year 2100, even if no more greenhouse gases were added to the atmosphere. And the
resulting transfer of heat into the oceans would cause global sea levels to rise another 4 inches (11 centimeters) from thermal expansion
alone. The team's findings are published in this week's issue of the journal "Science." “This study is another in a series that employs increasingly sophisticated simulation techniques to
understand the complex interactions of the Earth,” says Cliff Jacobs of NSF’s atmospheric sciences division. “ These studies often yield results that are not revealed by
simpler approaches and highlight unintended consequences of external factors interacting with Earth’s natural systems.”
(__) Warming is slow—their impact is on the scale of centuries
(__) Warming is natural- satellites prove
Spencer 08 (Roy Spencer, Ph.D, report to congress, “ NASA’s Spencer Tells Congress Global Warming Is Not a Crisis,”
http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/23930/NASAs_Spencer_Tells_Congress_Global_Warming_Is_Not_a_Crisis.html, 10/9/8)
Despite decades of persistent uncertainty over how sensitive the climate system is to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, we
now have new satellite evidence which strongly suggests that the climate system is much less sensitive than is claimed by the U.N.’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Another way of saying this is that the real climate system appears to be dominated by “negative
feedbacks”—instead of the “positive feedbacks” which are displayed by all 20 computerized climate models utilized by the IPCC. (Feedback parameters larger than
3.3 Watts per square meter per degree Kelvin (Wm-2K-1) indicate negative feedback, while feedback parameters smaller than 3.3 indicate positive feedback.) If true,
an insensitive climate system would mean that we have little to worry about in the way of manmade global warming and associated
climate change. And, as we will see, it would also mean that the warming we have experienced in the last 100 years is mostly natural.
Of course, if climate change is mostly natural then it is largely out of our control, and is likely to end—if it has not ended already,
since satellite-measured global temperatures have not warmed for at least seven years now.
(__) Apocalyptic warming scenarios are exaggerated
"Hans von Storch and Nico Stehr 01/24/2005 “How Global Warming Research is Creating a Climate of Fear”
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,342376,00.html
The pattern is always the same. The significance of individual events is turned into material suitable for media presentation and is then cleverly dramatized. When
the outlook for the future is discussed, the scenario that predicts the highest growth rates for greenhouse gas emissions -- which, of
course, comes with the most dramatic climatic consequences -- is always selected from among all possible scenarios. Those predicting
significantly smaller increases in greenhouse gas levels are not mentioned. Every prediction has to trump the last. Melting Antarctic ice is one of the
current horror scenarios du jour. Who benefits from this? The assumption is made that fear compels people to act, but we forget that it also produces a rather shortlived reaction. Climate change, on the other hand, requires a long-term response. The impact on the public may be "better" in the short term, thereby also positively
affecting reputations and research funding. But to ensure that the entire system continues to function in the long term, each new claim about the future of
our climate and of the planet must be just a little more dramatic than the last. It's difficult to attract the public's attention to the climate-related
extinction of animal species following reports on apocalyptic heat waves. The only kind of news that can trump these kinds of reports would be something on the
order of a reversal of the Gulf Stream. All of this leads to a spiral of exaggeration. Each individual step in this process may seem harmless, but on the
whole, the knowledge imparted to the public about climate, climatic fluctuations, climate shift and climatic effects is dramatically distorted.
(__) Adaptation sovles the impact – empirically proven
Michaels ‘7 (Patrick, Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies @ Cato and Prof. Environmental Sciences @ UVA, Atlanta JournalConstitution, “Global Warming: No Urgent Danger; No Quick Fix”, 8-21, http://cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8651)
We certainly adapted to 0.8 C temperature change quite well in the 20th century, as life expectancy doubled and some crop yields
quintupled. And who knows what new and miraculously efficient power sources will develop in the next hundred years. The stories about the ocean rising 20
feet as massive amounts of ice slide off of Greenland by 2100 are also fiction. For the entire half century from 1915 through 1965, Greenland was
significantly warmer than it has been for the last decade. There was no disaster. More important, there's a large body of evidence that for much of the
period from 3,000 to 9,000 years ago, at least the Eurasian Arctic was 2.5 C to 7 C warmer than now in the summer, when ice melts. Greenland's ice didn't
disappear then, either. Then there is the topic of interest this time of year — hurricanes. Will hurricanes become stronger or more frequent because of warming?
My own work suggests that late in the 21st century there might be an increase in strong storms, but that it will be very hard to detect because of year-to-year variability.
Right now, after accounting for increasing coastal population and property values, there is no increase in damages caused by these killers. The biggest of them all was
the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. If it occurred today, it would easily cause twice as much damage as 2005's vaunted Hurricane Katrina. So let's get real and give
the politically incorrect answers to global warming's inconvenient questions. Global warming is real, but it does not portend immediate disaster, and there's
currently no suite of technologies that can do much about it. The obvious solution is to forgo costs today on ineffective attempts to stop it, and to save our money
for investment in future technologies and inevitable adaptation.
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EXT #1 – NOT REAL
No warming- models flawed—
a. discoveries of NASA data glitches
Young 11- 21 (2k8)(Gregory, Dr. Gregory Young is a neuroscientist and physicist, a doctoral graduate of the University of Oxford, Oxford, England. He is currently involved with a
privately funded think-tank engaged in experimental biophysical research., “Global Warming? Bring it On!”, http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/11/global_warming_bring_it_on.html)
(2) The reported NASA temperature data glitch discovered by Canadian Computer Analyst Steve McIntyre that wrongly kicked
all temperature records up several tenths of a degree was a severe setback for AGW modelers. This software "failure" was
overseen by one of AGW's fiercest proponents, the notorious Dr. James Hanson. NASA's GISS and Hanson have recently come
under fire again for poor data collection methods and questionable accuracy.
b. Discoveries of wrongly sited weather stations
Young 11- 21 (2k8)(Gregory, Dr. Gregory Young is a neuroscientist and physicist, a doctoral graduate of the University of Oxford, Oxford, England. He is
currently involved with a privately funded think-tank engaged in experimental biophysical research., “Global Warming? Bring it On!”,
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/11/global_warming_bring_it_on.html)
(4) Finally let us not forget the astute investigation of automated weather stations by US Meteorologist Anthony Watts.
Watts
painstakingly discovered that a large fraction of the nation's 1,200 stations have been wrongly sited in man-made heatabsorbing centers. (Examples include locations on rooftops, on slabs of heat absorbing concrete, next to air conditioners, diesel
generators and asphalt parking lots, even at sewage treatment plants. Some are located in areas experiencing excessive nighttime
humidity, and at non-standard observing heights, including one actually sinking into a swamp.) Watts' discovery profoundly undermined the
veracity of historical temperature data documented in the United States -- data that had been used by AGW proponents.
Your models are flawed- IPCC conflates politics with science.
Young 11- 21 (2k8)(Gregory, Dr. Gregory Young is a neuroscientist and physicist, a doctoral graduate of the University of Oxford, Oxford, England. He is
currently involved with a privately funded think-tank engaged in experimental biophysical research., “Global Warming? Bring it On!”,
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/11/global_warming_bring_it_on.html)
There are three indisputable and fundamental facts that were wantonly ignored in the UN's IPCC sham of a report. The UN
breathlessly but insidiously "forgot" to include the specifics that: (1) The Earth has largely benefited by past warming cycle's and that these
previous "warmings" had nothing to do with man's activities. These earlier natural cycles were not catastrophic events; they were, in fact, beneficial to all life
forms. They provided warmer and longer growing seasons, more areas available for crops, etc. We know, for instance, that Greenland was once green, that Eric the
Red planted and grew grapes in what is now Nova Scotia, Canada, that the Romans planted grapes in England, etc. (2) Solar/Sun Spot activity is the originator of
most climatic change and most weather patterns on Earth. It is king. There is no larger factor of influence. CO2 influence is negligible and pales in comparison.
CO2 follows the trend of temperature; it does not cause it. (3) Subordinate to solar activity alone, atmospheric water vapor/cloud formation and movement is the
largest known variable that influences temperature changes in the atmosphere of the earth, and the earth's oceans. Water vapor in the atmosphere is around 100010,000 times as important as atmospheric CO2. These three quintessential and pivotal factors are not even discussed in the UN's IPCC
report. This exclusion should raise a red flag in any intelligent mind . That's why so many of us are yelling from the rooftops about the absurdity
of the report itself! Instead of a true and open discourse, we see the daily dribble from the MSM and various liberally usurped science journals,
dishonestly and falsely alleging a "consensus" when there is none. Indeed, arrayed against the arcane burlesque of the United Nations IPCC
with its politically selected 2500 Scientists, of which a core group of 600 exists, and a relatively small number of mediocre
"scientists" here and there across the American landscape who have suddenly found notoriety or grant money in the global warming cause, are 31,072+
legitimate and viable scientists (of which I am one) who signed the American Petition Project declaring the Global Warming
Hypothesis bogus found here, here and here. We openly refute the UN's conclusions. Here's the Petition Statement we dissenters signed in opposition:
"We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar
proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and
welfare of mankind. "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in
the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence
that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth." Let me assure you
that we're not in good humor, nor take it kindly to be slurred and ridiculed by taking the other side in this debate. And our numbers are still growing. Indeed, we're
angry that the vast majority of American Scientists will not be heard by the media. We're dismayed over the fact that the Global Warming fiasco has become
politically popular and expedient to those left-wing politicians and power-brokers whose sole aim is to literally tax everything with a carbon footprint and give
them control over all life, hidden within their PC guileful pretence to save the planet. They wish to save no one but themselves. And the tide turns further. Of
the 2500 originally aligned scientists and putative authors of the UN's IPCC report some 500 are no longer faithful to Big
Al's errand. Many of these scientists discovered that their individual findings and comments were willfully misrepresented.
All participant conclusions were unilaterally changed to adhere strictly to the United Nations objective of building support for
world taxation and rationing of industrially useful energy. Since the original IPCC report (and there have been some 4 others now formally issued),
the defecting 500 scientists have issued public statements challenging global warming. Approximately 100 of these scientists
are now open defectors. Others are currently suing the UN for the misuse of their good names and research. It is difficult to see
why a thinking person would even consider the IPCC report as legitimate. The entire IPCC process is but obfuscation by the secular and atheist
Left. It has allowed the Left to conflate the vanity of secular opinion with scientific and/or moral truth. There is an easy and immediate
remedy for their debacle. Will Rogers stated it simply: "When you are in a hole ... stop digging.... Please!"
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AT: GLOBAL WARMING (CORAL REEFS)
Multiple factors allow reefs to recover from stress
International Union for Conservation of Nature 9 (Jan 9, http://www.iucn.org/cccr/resilience_to_climate_change/) LL
Resilience - A promising paradigm Even though climate change and coral bleaching pose a serious threat to the future survival of coral
reefs, there is still hope that these ecosystems will be able to survive increased SSTs. Some coral reefs are able to withstand stresses to
a greater degree (are more resistant) while other coral reefs are able to recover from bleaching events more rapidly (are more resilient) depending on a number
of oceanographic, ecological and physiological factors. The principles of resistance and resilience are emerging as a promising paradigm to
aid the management of coral reefs in the face of climate change, and give hope in the face of adversity . The figure below illustrates the
stages in the coral bleaching process where it is possible for a coral or coral reef to survive the disturbance. It illustrates four main processes that can allow a coral
reef to survive: protection, resistance, tolerance and resilience. Protection Oceanographic and other environmental factors that create pockets of
reduced or non-stressful conditions where ecosystems are protected from disturbances (Salm et al, 2001). A coral reef can be protected against
increased SSTs or light levels and therefore against bleaching by local upwelling, fast water flow, shading and screening. Resistance The ability of an
organism or ecosystem to withstand disturbance without undergoing a phase shift or losing neither structure nor function (Odum,
1989). For example a coral reef’s ability to withstand bleaching and mortality. Coral morphology, different zooxanthellae clades and coral acclimatisation can all
influence a coral reef's resistance to bleaching. Tolerance The ability of an organism to absorb a disturbance and not suffer mortality ( Obura,
2006). For example, a coral’s ability to bleach, and then recover its zooxanthellae to become healthy again. Resilience The ability of a system
to absorb or recover from disturbance and change, while maintaining its functions and services (Adapted from Carpenter et al, 2001). For example a coral reef’s
ability to recover from a bleaching event. Factors that can improve a coral reef's resilience to a mass bleaching event include good
species and functional diversity, good connectivity to larval sources, appropriate substrates for larval settlement and protection
from other anthropogenic impacts.
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AT: GLOBAL WARMING (OCEANS SCENARIO)
New data proves- oceans cooling.
Young 11- 21 (2k8)(Gregory, Dr. Gregory Young is a neuroscientist and physicist, a doctoral graduate of the University of Oxford,
Oxford, England. He is currently involved with a privately funded think-tank engaged in experimental biophysical research., “Global
Warming? Bring it On!”, http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/11/global_warming_bring_it_on.html)
(3) As recently presented in American Thinker, Lord Monckton competently summarizes for us that many of the highly publicized
AGW "facts" are simple documented anomalies of natural climate cycling -- designedly misrepresented for the cause of AGW.
To wit: The Oceans are not catastrophically rising nor are they warming. In fact, the oceans have been cooling since 2003. The
Snows of Kilimanjaro are not melting but ablating because of friction due to a cooling atmosphere and natural cooling trends. The
world's 160,000 glaciers are not suddenly receding, but appear to be re-advancing, including those ice shelves in Antarctic and the
polar ice sheets, all of which cycle regularly in ice mass. Lord Monckton, a science-journalist, provides even more evidence here.
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AT: GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES WARS
No link between warming and war.
Tol & Wagner ’08 [Richard & Sebastian, Economic & social Research Institute for Coastal Research, Jan 15, “Climate Change and
Violent Conflict in Europe over the Last Millennium,” http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/workingpapers/climatewarwp.pdf]
In this paper, we study the relationship between climate change and violent conflict over the past millennium in Europe. Our results do
not show a clear-cut picture: We present some evidence that abnormally cold periods were abnormally violent, as do Zhang et al.
(2006). However, we also show that this evidence is not particularly robust. If one has strong priors that climate change causes
conflict, our results provide confirmation. However, if one has strong priors that there is no link, our results do not overthrow such
doubt. If anything, cold implies violence, and this effect is much weaker in the modern world than it was in mediaeval times. This
implies that future global warming is not likely to lead to (civil) war between (within) European countries. Should anyone ever
seriously have believed that, this paper does put that idea to rest.
Many examples disprove the warming results in conflict.
Salehyan ’07 [Idean, Assistant Professor of Political Science at UNT, “The New Myth About Climate Change: Corrupt, tyrannical
governments-not changes in the Earth’s climate-will be to blame for the coming resource wars,”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3922]
First, aside from a few anecdotes, there is little systematic empirical evidence that resource scarcity and changing environmental
conditions lead to conflict. In fact, several studies have shown that an abundance of natural resources is more likely to contribute to
conflict. Moreover, even as the planet has warmed, the number of civil wars and insurgencies has decreased dramatically. Data
collected by researchers at Uppsala University and the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo shows a steep decline in the
number of armed conflicts around the world. Between 1989 and 2002, some 100 armed conflicts came to an end, including the wars in
Mozambique, Nicaragua, and Cambodia. If global warming causes conflict, we should not be witnessing this downward trend.
Furthermore, if famine and drought led to the crisis in Darfur, why have scores of environmental catastrophes failed to set off armed
conflict elsewhere? For instance, the U.N. World Food Programme warns that 5 million people in Malawi have been experiencing
chronic food shortages for several years. But famine-wracked Malawi has yet to experience a major civil war. Similarly, the Asian
tsunami in 2004 killed hundreds of thousands of people, generated millions of environmental refugees, and led to severe shortages of
shelter, food, clean water, and electricity. Yet the tsunami, one of the most extreme catastrophes in recent history, did not lead to an
outbreak of resource wars. Clearly then, there is much more to armed conflict than resource scarcity and natural disasters.
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AT: GREEK-TURKISH CONFLICT
1. Greece-Turkey conflict won’t escalate to war.
Stephen Mann, Lieutenant, US Navy, 2001. [US Navy War College, www.hsdl.org/?view&doc=36621&coll=public]
The basic issues in the Aegean and Cyprus have yet to be resolved, but relations between Turkey and Greece have improved,
especially in the last year. Infrequent eventssuch as the Imial Kardak crisis still show the escalatory nature of their relationship,
but atthe same time it is clear that both sides will almost certainly always stop short of the act of war; the risks are too great, the
potential rewards to little, and the outcomes toouncertain. Both governments have some common sense in this regard and
they must nowuse that common sense to move toward resolution of the overall problem. How to movetoward that resolution is
the question; many possibilities exist but some options andconsiderations, discussed in the next chapter, seem more likely to
work than others.
2. Greece-Turkey relations are better than ever.
F. Stephen Larrabee, Ph.D., Distinguished Chair in European Security at RAND, 2010. [RAND, Troubled Partnership U.S.-Turkish
Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG899.pdf]
However, since 1999, relations between Greece and Turkey have significantly improved.14 Today, bilateral relations are better
than they have been since the Atatürk-Venizelos era in the 1930s. Trade has increased visibly, as have tourism and people-topeople exchanges. Energy cooperation has also intensified, bolstered by the opening of a $300-million gas pipeline that creates
an energy corridor connecting the rich natural-gas fields in the Caucasus with Europe. The improvement in Greek-Turkish
relations has been facilitated by a significant shift in Greek policy toward Turkey’s membership in the EU. For years, Greece
sought to block Turkish membership in the EU in an effort to force changes in Turkish behavior favorable to Greek interests.
Since 1999, however, Greece has become one of the strongest advocates of Turkey’s EU membership. Today, Athens sees a
“Europeanized” Turkey as strongly in its own interest. From the Greek perspective, the more Turkey conforms with European
norms and standards of international behavior, the better Greek-Turkish relations are likely to be.
3. No war-Greece needs Turkish gas pipelines
Reuters, June 2010 [UPDATE 1-Turkey, Italy and Greece sign MOU for gas pipeline, Reuters Africa]
Turkey's state natural gas company Botas signed a memorandum of understanding on Thursday for a pipeline connecting Turkey with
Greece and Italy. The project, to be built along with Italy's Edison and Greek state natural gas company Depa, should be completed by
2017, Turkey's Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said. Yildiz said it surplus gas Turkey imports from Azerbaijan will probably be piped to
Greece and Italy.He declined to give details on the estimated cost of the Italy-Turkey-Greece Inter-connector (ITGI) pipeline. The
ITGI project is considered a possible threat to the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline project which is targeting access to the same Azeri
Shah Deniz gas for its planned start-up phase.
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AT: GRID TERROR
1. Even if terrorists attack the US grid, the system could easily overcome the attack
Eben Kaplan Council on Foreign Relations 2007. [Associate Editor. “America’s Vulnerable Energy Grid.” Council on Foreign
Relations. April 24, 2007. http://www.cfr.org/publication/13153/ americas_ vulnerable_energy_ grid.html]
Attacks on infrastructure are an almost daily fact of life in Iraq. Experts caution the war in that country will produce a whole
generation of terrorists who have honed their skills sabotaging infrastructure. In his recent book, The Edge of Disaster, CFR security
expert Stephen E. Flynn cautions, “The terrorist skills acquired are being catalogued and shared in Internet chat rooms.” But when it
comes to Iraq’s electrical grid, RAND economist Keith W. Crane says terrorists are not the main cause of disruptions: “Most of the
destruction of the control equipment was looting,” he says. Either way, Clark W. Gellings, vice president of the Electric Power
Research Institute, an industry research organization, thinks the U.S. grid is an unlikely target. “It’s not terribly sensational,” he
explains, “The system could overcome an attack in hours, or at worst, days.” That said, attacks on electricity infrastructure could
become common in future warfare: The U.S. military has designed and entire class of weapons designed to disable power grids.
2. Homeland Security programs are minimizing the risk of power grid attacks
CNN 2007 [http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/26/power.at.risk/index.html Sources: Staged cyber attack reveals vulnerability in power
grid September 26, 2007]
The White House was briefed on the experiment, and DHS officials said they have since been working with the electric industry to
devise a way to thwart such an attack. "I can't say it [the vulnerability] has been eliminated. But I can say a lot of risk has been taken
off the table," said Robert Jamison, acting undersecretary of DHS's National Protection and Programs Directorate. Government
sources said changes are being made to both computer software and physical hardware to protect power generating equipment. And
the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said it is conducting inspections to ensure all nuclear plants have made the fix.
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EXT #1: NO IMPACT
Terrorist attacks on the grid will have limited impact – studies prove
Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004, Professor and Director, Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism
Events, [“New Terrorist Study Analyzes Attacks on Portws and Power Grids,” http://viterbi.usc.edu/news/news/2007/new-terroriststudy.htm, August 9 2007]
A dirty bomb attack in the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex would result in serious economic and psychological consequences,
and could produce tens to hundreds of latent cancers. But if terrorists caused a blackout in Los Angeles County, various forms of
resilience would give electricity customers the ability to lower the potential damage to their businesses. These are the findings of two
new studies by scientists affiliated with the University of Southern California Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism
Events
Terrorist attacks won’t have a major impact on electricity reliability – redundant transmission and generation reserves
Michaels, 8 – Adjunct Scholar at CATO and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute (Robert J., Electricity Journal, “A National
Renewable Portfolio Standard: Politically Correct, Economically Suspect,” April 2008, vol. 21, no. 3, Lexis-Nexis Academic) // JMP
National security and "energy independence." There are few if any important relationships between renewables and energy security for the nation. Security centers on oil, but only 2 percent of the nation's power comes from it
Some advocates see a national
RPS as deterring terrorist attacks on large power plants, but there are surely cheaper ways to achieve this end .59 Security is better addressed directly by
facility owners and government formulating a national policy on infrastructure. Electricity requires redundant transmission and generation reserves to maintain
reliability, whether outages are caused by lightning or bombs. The destruction of an isolated wind farm achieves less than that of a
large generator, but in most scenarios the loss of either will have little effect on reliability.
and some oil-fired plants can also burn gas. Interruptions of conventional fuel supplies are rare and usually local, but intermittent renewables have their own reliability risks.
Redundancies in the grid solve for disruptions due to terrorism
Washington Post, 4 (Justin Blum, “Bandaged Grid Still Vulnerable - 2003 Blackout Shed Light on Weaknesses, But Power System
Fixes Fall Short of Need ,” 8-10-2004, p. E01, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A52858-2004Aug9?language=printer) //
SM
Homeland security officials also worry that electricity could be disrupted by terrorism. Industry executives said that they have taken
precautions and are working with the government. They said that the electrical grid has redundancies that should minimize serious
disruptions in the event of an attack on a power plant or transmission line. In April, a joint U.S.-Canadian task force concluded that the power grid needed to be more closely
regulated. A task force report focused blame on FirstEnergy Corp. of Akron, Ohio, whose major transmission lines tripped, causing the failure of the grid. The report said that "unsafe conditions" that day resulted from
violations of the voluntary guidelines by FirstEnergy, one of the nation's largest utilities. The task force concluded that FirstEnergy, which recently agreed to pay $89.9 million to settle shareholder lawsuits partly related to
the blackout, should have cut power to some of its customers to prevent the blackout from spreading but failed to do so. The company also failed to trim trees near power lines.
The terrorist risk to the grid is negligible and could be fixed quickly
Kaplan, 7 – Associated Editor at the Council of Foreign Relations (Eben, “America’s Vulnerable Energy Grid,” 4-27-2007,
http://www.cfr.org/publication/13153/americas_vulnerable_energy_grid.html) // SM
Attacks on infrastructure are an almost daily fact of life in Iraq . Experts caution the war in that country will produce a whole generation of terrorists who have honed their skills
sabotaging infrastructure. In his recent book, The Edge of Disaster, CFR security expert Stephen E. Flynn cautions, “The terrorist skills acquired are being catalogued and shared in Internet chat rooms.” But when it
comes to Iraq’s electrical grid, RAND economist Keith W. Crane says terrorists are not the main cause of disruptions: “Most of the
destruction of the control equipment was looting,” he says.
Either way, Clark W. Gellings, vice president of the Electric Power Research Institute, an industry research organization, thinks the U.S.
grid is an unlikely target. “It’s not terribly sensational,” he explains, “The system could overcome an attack in hours, or at worst, days.” That said,
attacks on electricity infrastructure could become common in future warfare: The U.S. military has designed and entire class of weapons designed to disable power grids.
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EXT #2 – SOLVING NOW
The government has programs to protect the energy grid from Terrorists
Charles Trabandt, Capitol Hill Hearing Testimony, FDCH, 10-10-01
In the area of infrastructure and transmission grid security, the Congress, the Administration and industry have responded in quick
order to the heightened threat of terrorism. The Subcommittee provided leadership with the hearing on September 20th with
Administration witnesses and related activities. The Department of Energy was scheduled to make legislative recommendations on
security on October 9th with immediate Committee mark-up of emergency legislation in the Senate this week. NERC has been in a
readiness state of high alert and an EEI task force has been working with NERC, NEI, other energy trade groups and DOE on
enhanced security measures. All of these initiatives, and undoubtedly many more in the context of homeland defense, will parallel the
preparations for Desert Storm a decade ago. Government and industry worked in close cooperation then to ensure adequate protection
of our vital energy sector. And, I 'm confident that today's efforts ultimately will be just as successful in the face of the new terrorist
threat.
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AT: GRID TERROR (EMP)
1. The Threat of an EMP attack is conservative media hype and Iran Bashing – even the US military doesn’t have the
capability yet
The Raw Story July 14, 2008 (David Edwards and Muriel Kane, “Fox: Terrorist nukes could ‘fry every electronic gizmo civilization
needs to survive’”, http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Fox_ Danger_of_electromagneti c_pulse _terrorism_0714.html)
Fox News has found a fresh terrorism threat to be panicked about -- the menace of electromagnetic pulses (EMP). "There is a new
terror study out ... warning the US of a clear and present danger on a massive scale," anchor Bill Hemmer began. The question of
whether EMP poses a threat to the United States has been a matter of debate since the 1990's. In 2001, the House Armed Services
Committee established a Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack. The Commission
released its initial report in 2004, concluding that a nuclear-generated EMP "has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk."
The House Armed Service Committee held an update hearing last week with testimony by the chairman of the EMP Commission.
Conservative Paul Weyrich also recently drew attention to that 2004 report, writing, "The conclusions of this study are the most
frightening I have seen concerning modern-day threats. Few have heard of it because the report has yet to be made public. ... When the
American people realize as much, the outrage will be palpable." However, other experts have downplayed the technological feasibility
of an EMP attack and point to the fact that most of those appointed to the Commission had close ties to the defense industry. Fox
News turned for insight on the EMP threat to former White House terrorism director R.P. Eddy, who currently heads the Center for
Policing Terrorism. Eddy warned that "a nuclear explosion or another weapon that releases a wave of electrons ... will fry every
electronic gizmo or tool that civilization needs to survive. ... Not only would the power grid be out ... but every piece of electronics
that we use, from pacemakers to phones to cars." "Major civilizations, major nations have built electromagnetic pulse weapons," Eddy
asserted, "but they're not that complicated to make, and it's likely that terrorists could actually make some of the weapons." Despite
Eddy's claim, a recent article in the Register suggests that even the Pentagon has not yet successfully developed an electropulse
weapon. However, aerial nuclear explosions do remain a credible means of achieving the same result, and Fox displayed a graphic
showing that a nuclear burst 300 miles over Kansas could take out all of the United States. “Countries like Iran or North Korea could
use some of their nuclear weapons to create an electromagnetic pulse," Eddy proposed. "It's very hard to defend against a missile." He
added that the US military has been attentive to hardening its own electronics for decades, but "it doesn't mean that civilization in this
country is paying attention to it." "You can use a nuclear weapon, and you don't have to have as accurate or as long-range a missile to
deliver it," Eddy concluded, suggesting that Iran might shoot a nuclear-tipped Scud missile at the United States from a barge anchored
off the coast. Right-wing sources have been trying for years to tie Iran to the threat of EMP attacks, particularly after it was reported in
2005 that Iran had been testing mid-air explosions of its ballistic missiles. At that time, the conservative website World Net Daily
claimed, "Iran is not only covertly developing nuclear weapons, it is already testing ballistic missiles specifically designed to destroy
America's technical infrastructure, effectively neutralizing the world's lone superpower, say U.S. intelligence sources, top scientists
and western missile industry experts."
2. Our grid has been hardened - it will mitigate an EMP attack.
Defense News July 10 2008 (William Matthews, “Little Congressional Interest in EMP Threat”,
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3621581&c=AME&s=TOP)
There is "a high likelihood" than an EMP attack would damage the "electrical power systems, electronics and information systems
upon which American society depends." The effect "on critical infrastructures could be sufficient to qualify as catastrophic to the
nation," Graham said. But disaster need not occur. Large-scale, long-term disastrous consequences can be limited if the U.S.
government and critical industries would spend three to five years and billions of dollars hardening power grids and electronic
equipment to withstand large electromagnetic pulses, he said.
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AT: GRID TERROR (ALASKAN PIPELINE)
1. Pipeline operators have responded to the terrorist threat and have increased security and cooperation
Paul Parfomak 2004 Specialist in Science and Technology Resources at CRS [“Pipeline Security: An Overview of Federal Activities
and Current Policy Issues.” CRS Report for Congress. February 5, 2004. fas.org/sgp/ crs/RL31990.pdf]
While their security programs traditionally tended to focus on personnel safety and preventing vandalism, some have been more
comprehensive. For example, security at the trans- Alaska pipeline during the Gulf War included measures such as armed guards,
controlled access, intrusion detection and dedicated communications at key facilities, as well as aerial and ground surveillance of the
pipeline corridor.41 However, the events of September 11, 2001 focused attention on the vulnerability of pipelines to different
terrorist threats. In particular, the terrorist attacks raised the possibility of systematic attacks on pipelines by sophisticated terror
groups in a manner that had not been widely anticipated before. After the September 11 attacks, natural gas pipeline operators
immediately increased security and began identifying additional ways to deal with terrorist threats. Gas pipeline operators, for
example, through the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA), formed a security task force to coordinate and oversee
the industry’s security efforts. The INGAA states that it ensured that every member company designated a senior manager to be responsible for security.
Working with DOT, the Department of Energy (DOE), and non-member pipeline operators, the INGAA states that it assessed industry security programs and began
developing common risk-based practices for incident deterrence, preparation, detection and recovery. These assessments addressed issues such as spare parts exchange,
critical parts inventory systems, and security communications with emergency agencies, among other matters. The INGAA also worked with federal agencies, including
the OPS and Homeland Security, to develop a common government threat notification system.42
2. TSA pipeline security measures are working now
Paul Parfomak 2004 Specialist in Science and Technology Resources at CRS [“Pipeline Security: An Overview of Federal Activities
and Current Policy Issues.” CRS Report for Congress. February 5, 2004. fas.org/sgp/crs/ RL31990.pdf]
TSA’s Pipeline Branch is implementing its plans with respect to pipeline security inspections, standards development, and critical
asset analysis. According to TSA, the agency expects pipeline operators to maintain security plans based on the OPS/industry
consensus security guidance circulated in 2002 and subsequent revisions.61 In 2003 the agency visited 24 of the largest 25-30 pipeline
operators to review their security plans and inspect their facilities. The agency plans to complete the remaining large operator
inspections by April 2004, and then begin inspections of major gas distribution systems. During the reviews, TSA evaluates whether
each company has followed the intent of the OPS/industry security guidance, and seeks to collect the list of assets each company has
identified meeting the criteria established for critical facilities. According to TSA, nearly all operators visited by the agency have met
the minimum security guidelines, and some have gone “way beyond” the minimum requirements. All but two of the 24 operators have
provided TSA with copies of their security plans and system maps, as well as critical infrastructure information. The two operators
declining to provide this information did not believe they had adequate assurances the information would be protected from public disclosure. The OPS joined TSA on
approximately one-third of its operator inspections in 2003.62 TSA seeks the OPS’ participation in these reviews, but does not require it.63
3. Even if the pipeline is vulnerable, terrorists will not attack it because it can be repaired easily.
USA Today ’06 (Mary Pemberton, “Official: Alaska pipeline not that vulnerable”, February 12, http://www.usa
today.com/news/nation/2006-02-12-pipeline-threats_x.htm)
While the pipeline would be easy to blow up, it is not an attractive target for terrorists, said Henry Lee, director of the Environment
and Natural Resources Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. The center focuses on
international security. Lee said terrorists blow up pipelines more as an irritant, pointing to a pipeline in Colombia blown up more than
100 times by rebels. "Pipelines can be blown up, and they are fairly easy to blow up," Lee said. "The day they did it, it would get
headlines in all the papers. The problem is you would have it fixed in a matter of days." Chris Kendall, a petroleum geologist at the
University of South Carolina who is an expert on the impact of war on oil supplies, described the pipeline as a "soft boundary" target.
"Of course it is vulnerable," he said.
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EXT #2 – PIPELINE SAFE
The Alaskan pipeline is safe – it is well supervised, easy to fix and hard to get near with weapons
USA Today ’06 (Mary Pemberton, “Official: Alaska pipeline not that vulnerable”, February 12, http://www .usatoday
.com/news/nation/2006-02-12-pipeline-threats_x.htm)
ANCHORAGE — The trans-Alaska pipeline looks like it would be an easy target for terrorists intent on destroying a valuable
American asset, but those responsible for its safekeeping say looks can be deceiving. The 800-mile pipeline — which carries nearly 17% of
domestic crude oil production — snakes north to south across Alaska, from the oil fields of Prudhoe Bay to the port of Valdez, where tankers are loaded for delivery to
West Coast refineries. About half of the 48-inch diameter pipeline lies underground. The other half is visible — a huge silver cylinder that parallels two Alaska
highways and sits nearly in the backyards of some Fairbanks homes. The Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., the company that operates the pipeline,
even has a visitors center outside Fairbanks where tens of thousands of people have gone to get an upclose look at the pipeline. "You
can walk right under it," said Alyeska spokesman Mike Heatwole. Terrorism experts say pipelines in general are easy targets, but tend
to be low priority because they can be repaired so quickly. And officials with an intimate knowledge of the pipeline say it's far less
vulnerable than it appears — in part because of the difficulty a saboteur would have getting any weapon capable of serious damage
into Alaska. The pipeline has state, federal and local agencies keeping an eye on it, said John Madden, deputy director of the state
Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. When Madden was asked what would keep someone from, say, firing a shoulder-mounted rocket at the
pipeline, he cited the difficulty of getting such a weapon near the pipeline. "The very act of a shoulder-fired weapon suggests transport of that
weapon," he said. Agencies including customs, immigration, border control and state troopers, work to make sure that such a weapon
would never make it into Alaska, he said. "There are quite a bit of those layers of defense and observation which the public will never
see," Madden said.
The pipeline is safe – Alaska is too cold for terrorists
USA Today ’06 (Mary Pemberton, “Official: Alaska pipeline not that vulnerable”, February 12,
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-02-12-pipeline-threats_x.htm)
However, the pipeline's isolation in Alaska probably works to its advantage, Kendall said. Terrorists need a certain amount of "internal
synergy" to be effective, he said. "They need each other socially," Kendall said. He doubted terrorists had that much interest in
Alaska. "Fortunately these idiots, the nihilists, are preoccupied with other focuses. They're probably running away from people in
Pakistan and Afghanistan. They are preoccupied with surviving and fighting in Iraq," Kendall said.
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AT: GRID TERROR (CYBER TERROR)
1. Minimal risk of cyber attacks on the power grid – government and industry protections and there has never been a
successful attack on the grid
CNN 2007 [http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/26/power.at.risk/index.html Sources: Staged cyber attack reveals vulnerability in power
grid September 26, 2007]
Despite all the warnings and worry, there has not been any publicly known successful cyber-attack against a power plant's control
system. And electric utilities have paid more attention to electronic risks than many other industries, adopting voluntary cyberstandards. "Of all our industries, there are only a couple -- perhaps banking and finance and telecommunications -- that have better
cyber-security or better security in general then electric power," Borg said. And DHS notes that it uncovered the vulnerability
discovered in March, and is taking steps with industry to address it. While acknowledging some vulnerability, DHS's Jamison said
"several conditions have to be in place. ... You first have to gain access to that individual control system. [It] has to be a control
system that is vulnerable to this type of attack." "You have to have overcome or have not enacted basic security protocols that are
inherent on many of those systems. And you have to have some basic understanding of what you're doing. How the control system
works and what, how the equipment works in order to do damage. But it is, it is a concern we take seriously." "It is a serious concern.
But I want to point out that there is no threat, there is no indication that anybody is trying to take advantage of this individual
vulnerability," Jamison said. Borg notes that industry will have to remain forever vigilant at protecting control systems.
2. FERC is addressing the Cyber security of utilities
Washington Post 2008. [“Hackers Have Attacked Foreign Utilities, CIA Analyst Says.” January 19, Page A04.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/ 01/18/AR2008011803277.html]
On Thursday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved eight cybersecurity standards for electric utilities. They involve
identity controls, training, security "perimeters," physical security of critical cyber equipment, incident reporting and recovery. The
U.S. electricity grid has always been vulnerable to outages. "Cybersecurity is a different kind of threat, however," Joseph T. Kelliher,
the commission's chairman, said in a statement this week. "This threat is a conscious threat posed by a single hacker, or even an
organized group that may be deliberately trying to disrupt the grid."
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AT: GROUND FORCES (LAND ARMY HEG)
1. Man power is not important in the military
Jack Spencer is Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. August 1, 2003 (“Reducing Stress on an Overstretched Force”
http://www.heritage.org/research/nationalsecurity/em895.cfm)
While U.S. forces are not adequate to sustain the current rate of deployment, simply adding manpower is not necessarily the answer.
Clearly, the U.S. needs more capabilities. However, while adding manpower may seem like the quickest way to fill the capabilities
gap, it is not the best way to solve the problem. People are expensive The most effective weapons in the U.S. armed forces are
soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines. They are also, understandably, the most expensive. Only about a third of the defense budget is
spent on developing and buying weapons. Most of the rest goes to personnel and operational costs. Maintaining personnel beyond the
number needed to fulfill U.S. national security requirements takes resources away from important efforts such as modernization and
transformation. The result can be inappropriate deployments A perceived excess of manpower tempts political leaders to deploy forces
on operations that have little or nothing to do with U.S. national security. After the Cold War, this perception arguably contributed to
heavy U.S. involvement in peacekeeping efforts in places like Haiti, Somalia, and the Balkans. It is not the only measure of capability
Although manpower end-strength is important, it does not by itself determine capabilities. For example, a force trained and equipped
for the Cold War, regardless of size, would be inappropriate for the war on terrorism. Similarly, a military unit using old technology
may not be as capable as a unit half its size using new technology. Structuring the force to reflect modern national security
requirements accurately is more important than investing resources in outdated and wasteful organizations.
2. The military must downsize to meet contemporary threats
Charles V. Pena, a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, February 9, 2006, Science Direct
The defense budget can be reduced and the U.S. military downsized because (1) the nation-state threat environment is markedly
different than it was during the Cold War, and (2) a large military is not necessary to combat the terrorist threat. In fact, the Islamist
terrorist threat is relatively undeterred by the U.S. military presence abroad, and U.S. forces abroad, particularly those deployed in
Muslim countries, may do more to exacerbate than to diminish the threat. The arduous task of dismantling and degrading the terrorist
network will largely be the task of unprecedented international intelligence and law enforcement cooperation, not the application of
large-scale military force. To the extent the military is involved in the war on terror, it will be special forces in discrete operations
against specific targets rather than large-scale military operations.
3. Current Threats make a large military useless
Charles V. Pena, a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, February 9, 2006, Science Direct
The United States is in a uniquely safe geostrategic position against traditional, nation-state threats. No nearby foreign power is
capable of projecting power to attack the United States, while the U.S. nuclear arsenal is a powerful deterrent against any countries
with long-range nuclear capability. So the United States does not need a large, conventional military to defend the homeland against
nation-states. Today, the major threat to the homeland comes from transnational networks of Islamist terrorists, and in the war on
terror, large-scale military operations will be the exception rather than the rule. Al Qaeda does not command a military force, and as a
transnational terrorist organization, it does not have physical infrastructure and high-value targets that can be easily identified and
destroyed by military force.
The military's role in the war on terror mainly involves Special Operations Forces in discrete missions against specific targets, not
conventional warfare aimed at overthrowing entire regimes (such as Operation Iraqi Freedom). The rest of the war to dismantle and
degrade Al Qaeda will largely be the task of unprecedented international intelligence and law enforcement cooperation. Therefore, an
increasingly large defense budget—the Department of Defense projects the budget to grow to more than Image 492 billion by fiscal
year 20101—is not necessary either to fight the war on terror or to protect America from traditional nation-state military threats.
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AT: HEGEMONY
1. Heg is unsustainable for many reasons; be skeptical about their authors, who blindly assume heg is sustainable
Pape, 9 (Robert A., Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, “Empire Falls,” 1/22/09,
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20484)
AMERICA IS in unprecedented decline. The self-inflicted wounds of the Iraq War, growing government debt, increasingly negative
current-account balances and other internal economic weaknesses have cost the United States real power in today’s world of rapidly
spreading knowledge and technology. If present trends continue, we will look back at the Bush administration years as the death knell for
American hegemony. Since the cold war, the United States has maintained a vast array of overseas commitments, seeking to ensure peace and stability not
just in its own neighborhood—the Americas—but also in Europe and Asia, along with the oil-rich Persian Gulf (as well as other parts of the world). Simply
maintaining these commitments requires enormous resources, but in recent years American leaders have pursued far more ambitious goals than merely
maintaining the status quo. The Bush administration has not just continued America’s traditional grand strategy, but pursued ambitious objectives in all three
major regions at the same time—waging wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, seeking to denuclearize North Korea and expanding America’s military allies in Europe
up to the borders of Russia itself. For nearly two decades, those convinced of U.S. dominance in the international system have encouraged American policy
makers to act unilaterally and seize almost any opportunity to advance American interests no matter the costs to others, virtually discounting the possibility that
Germany, France, Russia, China and other major powers could seriously oppose American military power. From public intellectuals like Charles
Krauthammer and Niall Ferguson to neoconservatives like Paul Wolfowitz and Robert Kagan, even to academicians like Dartmouth’s William Wohlforth
and Stephen Brooks, all believe the principal feature of the post-cold-war world is the unchallengeable dominance of American
power. The United States is not just the sole superpower in the unipolar-dominance school’s world, but is so relatively more powerful than any other country
that it can reshape the international order according to American interests. This is simply no longer realistic.
2. Empirically, heg doesn’t solve conflict
Hachigan and Sutphen 2008 (Nina and Monica, Stanford Center for International Security, The Next American Century, p. 168-9)
In practice, the strategy of primacy failed to deliver. While the fact of being the world’s only superpower has substantial benefits, a national security
strategy based on suing and ratiaing primacy has not made America more secure. America’s military might has not been the
answer to terrorism, disease, climate change, or prolif eration. Iraq, Iran, and North Korea have become more dangerous in the last seven years, not
less. Worse than being ineffective with transnational threats and smaller powers, a strategy of maintaining primacy is counterproductive when it
comes to pivotal powers. If America makes primacy the main goal of its national security strategy, then why shouldn’t the pivotal powers do the same? A
goal of primacy signals that sheer strength is most critical to security. American cannot trumpet its desire to dominate the world military and then question why
China is modernizing its military.
3. Burden sharing solves conflicts best – deterrence
Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science and director of the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 07
(Barry R., “The Case for Restraint,” http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=331)
The United States must also develop a more measured view of the risks of nuclear proliferation. Without the promiscuous use of
preventive war, it will not be possible to stop all possible new nuclear weapons programs. Nuclear weapons are no longer
mysterious, but neither are they easy to get. It is costly and technically difficult to produce fissionable material in quantities
sufficient for nuclear weapons, and only a few countries can do it. It has taken a good bit of time for those smaller states who
wished to develop nuclear weapons to get them. Though an imperfect regime, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the
International Atomic Energy Agency do provide obstacles to the development of nuclear weapons, and some early warning that
mischief is afoot. Good intelligence work can provide more warning, and well-crafted intelligence operations could presumably
slow the diffusion of nuclear know-how, and even the progress of national nuclear programs, if need be. It is worthwhile to keep
proliferation relatively costly and slow because other states require time to adapt to such events, and extra time would be useful
to explain to new nuclear powers the rules of the game they are entering. U.S. policymakers feel compelled to trumpet that all
options, including force, are on the table when dealing with “rogue” state proliferators. True enough: The United States is a great
military power and on vital security matters its forces can never be off the table. But preventive war must never become either a
casual or a default policy choice. It has serious and probably enduring political costs, which the United States need not incur.
Deterrence is still a better strategy. The United States is a great nuclear power and should remain so. Against possible new
nuclear powers such as North Korea or Iran, U.S. capabilities are superior in every way. In contrast to the Cold War competition
with the Soviet Union, where neither country would have survived a nuclear exchange, it is clear which nation would survive
such an exchange between the United States and North Korea or Iran. Indeed, these states should be made to worry that they will
be vulnerable to preemptive nuclear attacks by the United States in the unhappy event that they attempt to make nuclear threats
over important issues. Similarly, new nuclear states ought not to be encouraged through loose talk to believe that they can give
nuclear weapons to others to use on the United States and somehow free themselves of the risks of U.S. retaliation. Clear
deterrent statements and strong nuclear forces are preferable to preventive war, because deterrence is both a more credible and
more sustainable policy.
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AT: HONEYBEES
Honeybees are not key to survival
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE 5-2-2007 (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/03/healthscience/NA-SCI-US-Honeybees-Weird.php)
The scientist who wrote the paper, Stefan Kimmel, e-mailed The Associated Press to say that there is "no link between our tiny little study and the CCD-phenomenon ...
anything else said or written is a lie." And U.S. Department of Agriculture top bee researcher Jeff Pettis laughs at the idea, because whenever he
goes out to investigate dead bees, he cannot get a signal on his cell phone because the hives are in such remote areas. Also on the Internet is a quote attributed
to Albert Einstein on how humans would die off in four years if not for honeybees. It is wrong on two counts. First, Einstein probably
never said it, according to Alice Calaprice, author of "The Quotable Einstein" and five other books on the physicist . "I've never come
across it in anything Einstein has written," Calaprice said. "It could be that someone had made it up and put Einstein's name on it." Second, it is
incorrect scientifically, Pettis said. There would be food left for humans because some food is wind-pollinated.
No impact to honeybee dieoff
SMITH 2007 (Heather, Slate, July 13, http://www.slate.com/id/2170305/pagenum/2)
But is CCD such a tragedy? The honeybee may be the only insect ever extended charismatic megafauna status, but it's already gone from the wild
(and it wasn't even native to North America to begin with). Sure, it makes honey, but we already get most of that from overseas. What about the $14.6
billion in "free labor"? It's more expensive than ever: In the last three years, the cost to rent a hive during the California almond bloom has tripled, from $50 to $150.
Good thing the honeybee isn't the only insect that can pollinate our crops. In the last decade, research labs have gotten serious about
cultivating other insects for mass pollination. They aren't at the point yet where they can provide all of the country's pollination needs, but they're getting
there. This year the California Almond Board two-timed the honeybee with Osmia lignaria—the blue-orchard bee: Despite CCD, they had a record harvest.*
Impact is empirically denied—massive dieoffs have occurred in past
OLDROYD 2007 (Dr. Benjamin P. Oldroyd is with the Behaviour and Genetics of Social Insects Laboratory, School of Biological Sciences, University of
Sydney, PLoS Biology, June, http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1892840)
Some winter losses are normal, and because the proportion of colonies dying varies enormously from year to year, it is difficult to say
when a crisis is occurring and when losses are part of the normal continuum. What is clear is that about one year in ten, apiarists suffer
unusually heavy colony losses. This has been going on for a long time . In Ireland, there was a “great mortality of bees” in 950, and again in 992 and
1443 [3]. One of the most famous events was in the spring of 1906, when most beekeepers on the Isle of Wight (United Kingdom) lost all of their colonies [4].
American beekeepers also suffer heavy losses periodically. In 1903, in the Cache valley of Utah, 2000 colonies were lost to a mysterious “disappearing disease”
following a “hard winter and cold spring” [5]. More recently, there was an incident in 1995 in which Pennsylvania beekeepers lost 53% of colonies [6].
No single factor is key—alt causes exist
GERBER 2007 (Richard, On Health Blog, March 23, http://blog.targethealth.com/?p=58)
The unusual phenomenon was first noticed by eastern beekeepers starting last fall. Researchers, including some connected with the Penn State University College of
Agricultural Sciences, have identified some of the possible contributors, but have not yet found a single cause. Initial studies on bee
colonies experiencing the die-offs have revealed a large number of disease organisms, with most being “stress-related” diseases but
without any one agent as the culprit. Climate chaos and extreme weather seem to be a major factor. It is hard to tell if wild honey bee
populations have been affected by the CCD disorder because Varroa mites have “pretty much decimated the wild honey bee population over the
past years,” said Maryann Frazier of The Pennsylvania State University Department of Entomology. “This has become a highly significant, yet poorly understood
problem that threatens the pollination industry and the production of commercial honey in the United States… Because the number of managed honeybee colonies is
less than half of what it was 25 years ago, states such as Pennsylvania can ill afford these heavy losses.” Dennis van Engelsdorp, acting state apiarist with the
Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture said “Every day, you hear of another operator, It’s just causing so much death so quickly that it’s startling.” Lee Miller,
director of the Beaver County extension office, said the deaths appear to be stress-related, but that stress could come from several sources . Dennis
van Engelsdorp of the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture said that initial studies found a large number of disease organisms present, with no
one disease being identified as the culprit. And while studies and surveys have found a few common management factors among beekeepers with affected
hives, no common environmental agents or chemicals have been identified.
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AT: HUNGER
1. U.S. Agriculture at record harvests
Charles Abbott, Fri Jul 10, 2009 10:11pm IST , UPDATE 2-U.S. growing record soybean crop, No 2 corn – USDA,
http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN1050724120090710?sp=true)
WASHINGTON, July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will harvest their largest soybean crop and the second-largest corn crop ever,
averting a potential supply squeeze while also leading to softer prices for the commodities, the government said on Friday.The
U.S. Agriculture Department said corn farmers face "sharply lower summer price prospects." Good weather and boosted
plantings bode for a bumper crop. Crop prices will return to "more normal" levels after last summer's problems in the world's top corn and soy producer
helped drive prices to record highs, said Gerald Bange, chairman of the USDA's World Agriculture Outlook Board ."The crop conditions are really not bad
in most of the places where we're looking," Bange said on USDA's radio service.The government boosted its corn crop forecast
to 12.29 billion bushels, the second largest on record due to the second-largest plantings since 1946.New-crop December corn futures
CZ9 at the Chicago Board of Trade dropped 3 percent to $3.30 per bushel on Friday, pressured after the USDA said stocks were larger than traders had expected."The
old-crop ending stocks (for corn) ballooned up here," said Don Roose, analyst at U.S. Commodities. "In the end, the government took the very conservative road and
left the yields unchanged on corn and soybeans."Soybeans SX9 were down 2 percent to $8.96 per bushel and wheat futures WU9 also dropped. Overall, USDA monthly
crop data for corn, soybeans and wheat came in near expectations. In its monthly update, USDA projected a soybean crop of 3.26 billion
bushels, the largest on record. It would replenish a stockpile forecast to shrink to 110 million bushels, the smallest in three
decades and less than a two-week supply." We were looking for a bearish report and we got it," said Jack Scoville, vice president at Price Futures Group.
"The soybeans are probably a bit negative and the wheat production was at, or just above, trade expectations." The wheat crop was estimated at 2.112 billion bushels,
including 1.53 billion bushels of winter wheat, 81.2 million bushels of durum and 506 million bushels of other spring wheat. U.S. crop prices soared to record levels
since 2006 but will moderate in the 2009/10 marketing year, USDA said. It projected an average farm-gate wheat price of $5.30 a bushel, corn $3.75 a bushel and
soybeans $9.30 a bushel. By comparison, the farm-gate price for 2008's crops are estimated at a record $6.78 for wheat, $4.05 for corn and $10 for soybeans. USDA
lowered its forecast of corn used to make ethanol for this marketing year by 100 million bushels, to 3.65 billion bushels, due to lower U.S. fuel use. (Editing by
Marguerita Choy.
2. Hunger being solved for now
Whitney Winer, student participant, "Hunger and Obesity in the United States" August 11, 2005,
http://www.worldfoodprize.org/assets/youthinstitute/05proceedings/schaller-crestlandhighschool.pdf
Hunger, on the other hand, has only one sole cause, which is poverty. A person who lives in poverty cannot acquire adequate housing, medical, or meet daily needs.
Many parents who do not make enough money for food skip meals, so their own children can eat. On average, children living in poverty receive one meal a day.
Hunger in the United States will be solved. Millions of jobs are being created for unemployed people every year, giving them
hope that one day they will be able to feed their families and live a life without hunger .
3. Turn – Nuclear war would eliminate the global food supply
Carl Sagan, Director of the Laboratory for planetary studies at Cornell University. 84, Winter. Foreign Affairs. “Nuclear War and
Climatic Catastrophe”
The immediate human consequences of nuclear explosions range from vaporization of populations near the hypocenter, to blastgenerated trauma (from flying glass, falling beams, collapsing skyscrapers and the like), to burns, radiation sickness, shock and severe
psychiatric disorders. But our concern here is with longer-term effects. It is now a commonplace that in the burning of m odern tall buildings, more
people succumb to toxic gases than to fire. Ignition of many varieties of building materials, insulation and fabrics generates large amounts of such pyrotoxins,
including carbon monoxide, cyanides, vinyl chlorides, oxides of nitrogen, ozone, dioxins, and furans. Because of differing practices in the use of such syn thetics, the burning of cities in North America and Western Europe will probably generate more pyrotoxins than cities in the Soviet Union, and cities with
substantial recent construction more than older, unreconstructed cities. In nuclear war scenarios in which a great many cities are burning, a
significant pyrotoxin smog might persist for months. The magnitude of this danger is unknown. The pyrotoxins, low light levels,
radioactive fallout, subsequent ultraviolet light, and especially the cold are together likely to destroy almost all of Northern
Hemisphere agriculture, even for the more modest Cases 11 and 14. A 12° to 15°C temperature reduction by itself would eliminate wheat
and corn production in the United States, even if all civil systems and agricultural technology were intact.' With unavoidable societal
disruption, and with the other environmental stresses just mentioned, even a 3,000-megaton "pure" counterforce attack (Case 11) might suffice. Realistically, many fires
would be set even in such an attack (see below), and a 3,000-megaton war is likely to wipe out U.S. grain production. This would represent
by itself an unprecedented global catastrophe: North American grain is the principal reliable source of export food on the
planet, as well as an essential component of U.S. prosperity. Wars just before harvesting of grain and other staples would be incrementally worse
than wars after harvesting. For many scenarios, the effects will extend (see Figure 2) into two or more growing seasons. Widespread fires and subsequent runoff of
topsoil are among the many additional deleterious consequences extending for years after the war. Something like three-quarters of the U.S. population lives in or near
cities. lin the cities themselves there is, on average, only about one week's supply of food. After a nuclear war it is conceivable that enough of present grain storage
might survive to maintain, on some level, the present population for more than a year. But with the breakdown of civil order and transportation
systems in the cold, the dark and the fallout, these stores would become largely inaccessible. Vast numbers of survivors would soon starve
to death.
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EXT #3 – WAR  HUNGER
War causes hunger
Hughes 09’
Scott Hughes, “ The inherent link between war and hunger”. World Hunger and Poverty. Online.6/17/09.
http://74.125.95.132/search?q=cache:YeR5rGEZoNoJ:millionsofmouths.com/blog/nfblog/2006/08/11/the-inherent-link-between-warand-hunger/+hunger+and+war&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us. 7/20/09
Sure, those who want to end world hunger also happen to often want to end war. Sure, sympathetic activists sympathize with
both causes - the fight against hunger and the fight for peace. However, the reason war and hunger are linked is not just that
these two movements happen to be motivated by similar sympathy. There is also an inherent link that conflates both war
and hunger into an irreducibly complex problem. Although in the abstract these two problems - war and hunger - may seem
like separate humanitarian issues, in practice they are just opposite sides of the same two-faced monster. As if the devastation of
war wasn’t enough, social stratification also causes poverty & hunger. The world has enough resources to feed, clothe,
house, and employ the entire world. The problem isn’t caused by a lack of resources, but rather by social inequality - the
powerful few using war to hoard the wealth, so they can plate their bathtubs gold while children die of starvation.
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AT: HUMAN RIGHTS
1. Burma and Sudan erode human rights credibility
Joshua Muravchik June 29, 2009 “The Abandonment of Democracy”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124631424805570521.html
Many human rights activists have been shocked at the administration's apparent willingness to consider easing sanctions on Burma
and Sudan. The Obama presidential campaign was scornful of Bush's handling of the killings in Sudan's Darfur region, which
Bush labeled as genocide, but since taking office, the administration has been caught flat-footed by Sudan's recent ousting of
international humanitarian organizations. While it is hard to see any diplomatic benefit in soft-pedaling human rights in Burma and
Sudan, neither has Obama anything to gain politically by easing up on regimes that are reviled by Americans from Left to Right.
Even so ardent an admirer of the President as columnist E. J. Dionne, the first to discern an "Obama Doctrine" in foreign policy,
confesses to "qualms" about "the relatively short shrift" this doctrine "has so far given to concerns over human rights and
democracy."
2. Individual policies don’t influence credibility
Fettweis 7 [Christopher J., assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, “Credibility and the War on
Terror”, Political Science Quarterly, Winter 2007/2008. Vol. 122, Iss. 4;, p. Proquest]
A series of other studies have followed those of Hopf and Mercer, yielding similar results. The empirical record seems to suggest that
there have been few instances of a setback in one arena influencing state behavior in a second arena.42 Daryl Press began his recent
study expecting to find that perceptions of the opponent's credibility would be an important variable affecting state behavior.43 He
chose three cases in which reputation would presumably have been vital to the outcome-the outbreak of the First World War, the
Berlin Crisis of the late 1950s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis-and found, to his surprise, that in all three cases, leaders did not appear to
be influenced at all by prior actions of their rivals, for better or for worse. Crisis behavior appeared to be entirely independent;
credibility, therefore, was all but irrelevant. Mercer's conclusions about reputation seem to have amassed a good deal more supporting
evidence in the time since he wrote.
3. Human rights won’t spread worldwide.
Anthony Pagden, Apr. 2003 (Professor at UCLA and Oxford, “Human Rights, Natural Rights and Europe’s Imperial Legacy”, Sage
Publications Inc. AR)
In 1947, the Saudi Arabian delegation to the committee drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights protested that the
committee had "for the most part taken into consideration only the standards recognized by Western civilization," and that it was not
its task "to proclaim the superiority of one civilization over all others or to establish uniform standards for all the coun- tries of the
world." Since then similar complaints have become commonplace. The widespread Islamic objection to the concept of "human rights"
has been joined by appeals on the part of Asian despots, and in particular Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, for the recognition of the
existence of a specific set of "Asian Values" which supposedly places the good of the community over those of individuals. The
concept of "human rights" has also been denounced from within the Western, predominantly liberal, academic establishment as overly
dependent upon a narrow, largely French, British, and American, rights tradition. Until very recently, and still in some Utramontane
quarters, the Catholic Church has also been a source of fierce opposition to what it saw as the triumph of lay individualism over the
values of the Christian community. What all of these criticisms have in common is their clear recognition of—and objection to—the fact that "rights" are
cultural artefacts masquerading as universal, immutable values. For whatever else they may be, rights are the creation of a specific legal tradition-that of ancient Rome,
and in particular that of the great Roman jurists from the second to the sixth centuries, although both the concept and the culture from which it emerged were already
well established by the early Republic. There is no autonomous conception of rights outside this culture. This may be obvious. But whereas
those who are critical of the idea take it to be the self-evident refutation of the possibility of any kind of universal or natural human
entitlement, champions of rights, in particular of "human rights," tend to pass over the history of the concept in silence. In his famous article on natural rights H. A.
L. Hart argued that there may be codes of conduct termed moral codes... which do not employ the notion of a right, and there is nothing contradictory or otherwise
absurd in a code or morality consisting wholly of prescriptions or in a code which prescribed only what should be done for the realization of happiness or some ideal of
personal perfection. As Hart pointed out, neither Plato nor Aristotle, nor indeed any other Greek author uses a term which could be rendered as "right," as distinct from
"justice," and most Greek law, and jurisprudence belonged to the category of prescriptive codes about how to achieve the highest good. When Hart wrote his article in
1955 he added that such codes would be properly described as "imperfect."5 Many modem commentators, in the wake of decades of discussions of cultural and moral
pluralism, might shy away from even that. Yet the attempt to avoid the evident culturally-specific nature of the entire enterprise of defining rights
has all too often resulted in surrender to the notion that the creation of one specific culture-particularly as that is also a powerful
Western one-must necessarily be invalid for all other cultures, something which, if taken seriously, would deprive us of any means of
establishing agreed modes of conduct between differing peoples. It is undeniable that, at present, the "international community"
derives its values from a version of a liberal consensus which is, in essence, a secularized transvaluation of the Christian ethic, at least
as it applies to the concept of rights.
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AT: HURRICANES KILL ECONOMY
1. Economy resilient to Gulf hurricanes—oil companies are prepared for storms and safety procedures prevent oil spills.
IHS Media Center, 6/4/2008. Leading global source of critical information and insight for customers in a broad range of industries.
“IHS: Despite 2005 Hurricane Damage in Gulf of Mexico, Average Annual Hurricane Disruptions to Production are Modest,”
http://energy.ihs.com/News/Press-Releases/2008/IHS-Despite-2005-Hurricane-Damage-in-Gulf-of-Mexico-Average-AnnualHurricane-Disruptions-to-Producti.htm.
HOUSTON, TX (June 4, 2008) – As the hurricane season begins, IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS) said today that the average impact on oil and
gas production from hurricanes over a 45-year period is relatively modest and its impact on supply is typically short-lived. IHS came
to this conclusion after analyzing production data spanning 1960 to 2005 to better understand the overall impact of hurricanes on Gulf
of Mexico production. “Based on our IHS production data from 1960 through 2005, which includes record levels of damage from
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and significant hurricane impact from four other hurricanes in the last decade, an average Gulf of
Mexico hurricane season would likely disrupt only 1.4 percent of the annual oil production and 1.3 percent of the annual gas
production,” said Steve Trammel, a senior product manager at IHS. “While Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were an exception,
historically, our data shows the overall impact to be much less than most people might expect.” Trammel said this historically low
impact on production is primarily attributable to industry planning. “The oil and gas companies are very focused on the safety of their
personnel,” he said. “Operators make the decision to pull crews off rigs well before a storm moves into the Gulf. Therefore, most
disruptions to production are caused by suspension of operations as a safety precaution in the event that an approaching hurricane does
threaten offshore production. As a result, average hurricane disruptions are short-lived with full production re-established within a
month.” When Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005, they combined to impart record damage to offshore
Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production and facilities, which helped push oil and gas prices to record levels by January 2006 and
increased fears about oil and gas supply shortages. Following the two storms in 2005, The U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS)
reported that 3,050 or 75 percent of the platforms, 22,000 miles or 67 percent of the pipelines, and about two-thirds of the region’s
refineries were in the path of the storms. By mid-December 2005, IHS data showed that cumulative shut-in oil was 101.7 million
barrels, 18.5 percent of yearly Gulf oil production, and shut-in natural gas production was 526.2 billion cubic feet, 14.4 percent of
yearly Gulf natural gas production. Trammel added that the last decade recorded six major hurricanes (including Katrina and Rita) that
caused significant production curtailments in the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the production from hurricanes Opal (1995), Georges
(1998) and Lili (2002) was restored within a month, he said, although Hurricane Ivan (2004), disrupted 471 million barrels of oil
production and 140 billion cubic feet of gas production. According to a May 22, 2008 press release issued by the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the outlook for the 2008 hurricane center calls for considerable
hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, with a “90 percent chance of an above-normal season in the Atlantic Basin this year.” The
Center’s outlook calls for a potential of 60-70 percent chance of 12-16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five
major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). The Center defines an average season as yielding 11 named storms,
including six hurricanes and two major storms. Hurricane Katrina, a Category 5 storm, achieved 175 mph winds before it dropped to
Category 3 and struck Louisiana on August 29, 2005, making it the most destructive storm to ever strike the U.S. in terms of economic
impact. Hurricane Rita struck the Texas coast on September 24, 2005 as a Category 3 storm having achieved sustained winds of 180
mph. In response to the increase in major hurricanes striking the Gulf of Mexico in recent years, Trammel said the petroleum industry
has improved evacuation plans, and shut-in and restart procedures to ensure safety and to mitigate leaks and production loss. “Within
economic limits,” he said, “offshore structures are being engineered to withstand Category 5 hurricanes. In addition, the MMS has
mandated new design specs for offshore facilities and has issued a series of Notices to Lessees and Operators, called NTLs, for rig
fitness requirements, platform tie-downs and ocean current monitoring, which are all tied to hurricane season.”
2. Empirically denied – Katrina should have caused their impacts
3. Overall impact to hurricanes is neutral.
CBO, 9/7/2005. Congressional Budgetary Office. “Overall economic impact of hurricane close to neutral,” Copy of a Letter Sent from
the CBO to Bill Frist, Mongabay, http://news.mongabay.com/2005/0907-cbo.html.
Summary: The CBO projects 400,000 people will be unemployed due to Hurricane Katrina. Further, the hurricane is unlikely to have
much impact on overall economic growth in the United States. Generally, the overall impact of natural disasters is often close to
neutral since lost output from destruction and displacement is then compensated for by a big increase in reconstruction and public
spending. The government may spend as much as $200 billion in the aftermath of the most costly hurricane in U.S. history.
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AT: ICE AGE
1. No uniqueness – no impending ice age now.
Thompson ’08 [Andrea, Live Science, Jun 12, “Could Waning Sunspots Bring On New Ice Age?”
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,366061,00.html]
No impending ice age
Though there is debate about how and whether the Maunder minimum actually caused the Little Ice Age, scientists have proposed a
few hypotheses as to how it could have done so. One idea springs from the fact that the sun emits much more ultraviolet radiation
when it is covered in sunspots, which can affect the chemistry of Earth's atmosphere. The other is that when the sun is active, it
produces tangled magnetic fields that keep out galactic cosmic rays. Some scientists have proposed that a lack of sunspots means these
cosmic rays are bombarding Earth and creating clouds, which can help cool the planet's surface. But these ideas aren't yet proven, and
anyway, the sun's contribution is small compared to volcanoes, El Niño and greenhouse gases, Hathaway notes. Even if there were
another Maunder minimum, he says, we would still suffer the effects of greenhouse gases and the Earth's climate would remain warm.
"It doesn't overpower them at all," Hathaway said.
2. The next ice age won’t cause extinction.
Snook ’07 [Jim, Geologist, Ice Age: Cause and Human Consequences, p. 172]
The next glacial breakup phase will be very had on living things because of a major decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide and lower
precipitation. However, I suspect that the next breakup phase will not cause the extinction of many animal genera like the last one did,
for several reasons. With all of the fossil fuels burned, there will be an increase of carbon dioxide in the ocean-atmosphere system.
Many compensating mechanism that will affect the carbon dioxide in the system include deposition of carbonates in shallow seas and
utilization by ocean plants. In addition, we do not know how much carbon dioxide will be added to the system by volcanism. Glacial
cycles after the next one are too remote for us to make any viable predictions. We do not know if there will be another great extinction
with the same cause as the one that occurred near the end of the last ice age, but it is a possibility.
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AT: IMPERIALISM
1. The U.S. mischaracterized as an empire—reciprocal economic partnerships and democratic agreements are the norm.
Ikenberry, 04. Professor of Geopolitics. G. John Ikenberry. “Illusions of Empire: Defining the New American Order” Foreign
Affairs, March/April 2004.
Is the United States an empire? If so, Ferguson's liberal empire is a more persuasive portrait than is Johnson's military empire. But
ultimately, the notion of empire is misleading -- and misses the distinctive aspects of the global political order that has developed
around U.S. power. The United States has pursued imperial policies, especially toward weak countries in the periphery. But U.S.
relations with Europe, Japan, China, and Russia cannot be described as imperial, even when "neo" or "liberal" modifies the term. The
advanced democracies operate within a "security community" in which the use or threat of force is unthinkable. Their economies are
deeply interwoven. Together, they form a political order built on bargains, diffuse reciprocity, and an array of intergovernmental
institutions and ad hoc working relationships. This is not empire; it is a U.S.-led democratic political order that has no name or
historical antecedent.To be sure, the neoconservatives in Washington have trumpeted their own imperial vision: an era of global rule
organized around the bold unilateral exercise of military power, gradual disentanglement from the constraints of multilateralism, and
an aggressive effort to spread freedom and democracy. But this vision is founded on illusions of U.S. power. It fails to appreciate the
role of cooperation and rules in the exercise and preservation of such power. Its pursuit would strip the United States of its legitimacy
as the preeminent global power and severely compromise the authority that flows from such legitimacy. Ultimately, the
neoconservatives are silent on the full range of global challenges and opportunities that face the United States. And as Ferguson notes,
the American public has no desire to run colonies or manage a global empire. Thus, there are limits on American imperial pretensions
even in a unipolar era. Ultimately, the empire debate misses the most important international development of recent years: the long
peace among great powers, which some scholars argue marks the end of great-power war. Capitalism, democracy, and nuclear
weapons all help explain this peace. But so too does the unique way in which the United States has gone about the business of
building an international order. The United States' success stems from the creation and extension of international institutions that have
limited and legitimated U.S. power.
2. Hegemony doesn’t equate to empire—other nations can choose to disengage from US security guarantees.
Ikenberry, 04. Professor of Geopolitics. G. John Ikenberry. “Illusions of Empire: Defining the New American Order” Foreign
Affairs, March/April 2004.
Johnson also offers little beyond passing mention about the societies presumed to be under Washington's thumb. Domination and exploitation are, of course,
not always self-evident. Military pacts and security partnerships are clearly part of the structure of U.S. global power, and they often
reinforce fragile and corrupt governments in order to project U.S. influence. But countries can also use security ties with the United
States to their own advantage. Japan may be a subordinate security partner, but the U.S.-Japan alliance also allows Tokyo to forgo a
costly buildup of military capacity that would destabilize East Asia. Moreover, countries do have other options: they can, and often do,
escape U.S. domination simply by asking the United States to leave. The Philippines did so , and South Korea may be next. The variety and
complexity of U.S. security ties with other states makes Johnson's simplistic view of military hegemony misleading.
3. Global pluralism makes empire impossible—the US has influence but not the control they describe
Zelikow, 03 “Transformation of National Security” Philip Zelikow. Professor of History and Public Affairs, University of Virginia.
National Interest, Summer 2003, pg. 18-10 Lexis).
But these imperial metaphors, of whatever provenance, do not enrich our understanding; they impoverish it. They use a metaphor of
how to rule others when the problem is how to persuade and lead them. Real imperial power is sovereign power. Sovereigns rule, and
a ruler is not just the most powerful among diverse interest groups. Sovereignty means a direct monopoly control over the
organization and use of armed might. It means direct control over the administration of justice and the definition thereof. It means
control over what is bought and sold, the terms of trade and the permission to trade, to the limit of the ruler's desires and capacities. In
the modern, pluralistic world of the 21st century, the United States does not have anything like such direct authority over other
countries, nor does it seek it. Even its informal influence in the political economy of neighboring Mexico, for instance, is far more
modest than, say, the influence the British could exert over Argentina a hundred years ago. The purveyors of imperial metaphors
suffer from a lack of imagination, and more, from a lack of appreciation for the new conditions under which we now live. It is easier
in many respects to communicate images in a cybernetic world, so that a very powerful United States does exert a range of influences
that is quite striking. But this does not negate the proliferating pluralism of global society, nor does it suggest a will to imperial power
in Washington. The proliferation of loose empire metaphors thus distorts into banal nonsense the only precise meaning of the term
imperialism that we have. The United States is central in world politics today, not omnipotent. Nor is the U.S. Federal government
organized in such a fashion that would allow it to wield durable imperial power around the world-it has trouble enough fashioning
coherent policies within the fifty United States. Rather than exhibiting a confident will to power, we instinctively tend, as David
Brooks has put it, to "enter every conflict with the might of a muscleman and the mentality of a wimp." We must speak of American
power and of responsible ways to wield it; let us stop talking of American empire, for there is and there will be no such thing.
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AT: INDIAN ECONOMY
Indian economy resilient – flexible and resilient to shocks and good advisors
Suman Berry (director general, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)) 2008: Indian economy more resilient
than its peers. http://profit.ndtv.com/2008/12/14212412/Indian-economy-more-resilient.html
Terming the global financial crisis as unprecedented in scale and complexity, Suman Berry, director general, National Council of
Applied Economic Research (NCAER), said despite openness, the Indian economy is far more resilient since it allows for rapid
adjustment. He exuberates confidence in the way the team of experienced policy makers is handling the situation. In an exclusive chat
with noted economist Ila Patnaik, Berry talks about the global economic crisis, Raghuram Rajan Committee report and financial sector
reforms.
NDTV: The US economy entered a recession in December 2007, as a committee of economists at the National Bureau of Economic
Research said. The latest export figures from India have shown a sudden sharp decline. Do you think the Indian economy has the
resilience to weather crisis?
Berry: What is unprecedented is the pace of deteriorating global economy. This kind of development at national level is also
unprecedented. As former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Bimal Jalan said, “God does look after India” which is because we
once again have a very experience team be it the PM, outgoing FM, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman, to take care of economy.
The Indian economy has been through ups and downs at various stages and it has survived very well. But what is remarkable about
India is that we seem somehow to emerge as a much more resilient economy post liberalisation.
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AT: INDIA IRAN CONFLICT
No conflict – Inida sees Iran as a stepping stone to global aspirations, especially against Pakistan, and Iran sees India as a
shield against the rest of the world.
C. Christine Fair (senior research associate at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the Unites States Institute of Peace in
Washington, D.C.) 2007: India and Iran: New Delhi’s Balancing Act. www.twq.com/07summer_fair-1.pdf.
Despite episodically coming under pressure for its ties with Tehran, India sees broad relations with Iran, not just on energy
agreements, as supporting its growing global aspirations. India wants to be seen by others as an emerging global power having
security interests apart from its intractable security competition with Pakistan. Keeping with its extraregional interests, New Delhi has
promulgated a “look east” policy to develop and sustain a multifaceted presence in Central Asia, setting up air bases in Tajikistan and
expanding its footprint in Iran and Afghanistan. India eyes Central Asia as an important element of its efforts to diversify its energy
needs. Moreover, it wants to expand its presence in this prized geography to deny Pakistan its much-sought strategic depth. Iran offers
India a unique asset that is fundamental to New Delhi’s power projection aspirations: geographical proximity and access to these
various countries.
Apart from India’s aspirations, bilateral ties between the two are moored by an expansive set of shared interests and objectives. First,
both states are uncomfortable with a unipolar world – a euphemism for U.S. predominance – and with the role that the United States
has played and will likely continue to play in the Middle East, particularly its military interventions in Iraq and possibly Iran. External
Affairs Minister Pranab Mukkherjee, during high-level meetings in Tehran in February 2007, reiterated New Delhi’s position that the
nuclear impasse cannot be resolved through military means and demands “dialogue, howsoever strenuous it may be.”
No conflict – Inida needs energy from Iran, and Iran needs a new market
C. Christine Fair (senior research associate at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the Unites States Institute of Peace in
Washington, D.C.) 2007: India and Iran: New Delhi’s Balancing Act. www.twq.com/07summer_fair-1.pdf.
Iran and India have an explicit interest in advancing commercial and energy ties. With the world’s third-largest reserve of oil and
second-largest proven reserve of gas, Iran is anxious to get its hydrocarbons out of the ground and into new markets, while energystarved India wants access to those resources. Despite this confluence of interests, however, progress on the energy relationship has
been slow, with Iranian crude oil accounting for a mere 7.5 percent of India’s total crude imports.
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AT: INDIAN SPACE RACE
India has no capabilities to develop space technology. No risk of escalation.
Chellaney 7 (Brahma. "India's Vulnerability Bared." Japan Times. February 9, http://spacedebate.org/argument/1358)KM
Before it can think of developing a counter-capability to shield itself from an ASAT menace, it will have to deal with two obtrusive
mismatches that hobble its deterrence promise. The first mismatch is between its satellite and launch capabilities. Greater operational
capability necessitates large satellites. While India has first-rate satellite-manufacturing expertise, it still needs a foreign commercial
launcher like the Ariane 5 of the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company to place its INSAT-4 series satellites in geostationary orbit. The second
mismatch is in the military realm -- between the technical sophistication to build nuclear warheads and the extent to which they
can be delivered reliably by missiles. Nearly a decade after it went overtly nuclear and almost a quarter-century after the missile program
launch, India still lacks the full reach against China. The thermonuclear warhead India tested with a controlled yield in 1998 still awaits a delivery
vehicle of the right payload range.
India lacks infrastructure, funding, and planning to implement any space programs.
Asia Times 8 ("India goes to war in space.". June 18, http://spacedebate.org/argument/1358)KM
India's expression of its intentions to set up an aerospace command and its announcement of the Integrated Space Cell has raised
concern in some quarters that India is entering the arms race in space. Such fears might be premature, given that the Integrated
Space Cell is at a very rudimentary stage. "India is just putting in place a very minimal budget initiative that will take several years
to develop," argued Prabhakar. "Besides satellites in space, India's space architecture of offensive and defensive systems are yet to
be conceived, built and deployed," said Prabhakar, pointing to the different kinds of satellites, space-based laser systems, space
stations and ground-based laser stations for offensive space operations that the "space superpowers" - the United States, Russia and
China - have.
India doesn’t have rudimentary defense capabilities – space is a long way away.
Asia Times 8 ("India goes to war in space.". June 18, http://spacedebate.org/argument/1358)KM
In the event of their satellites being knocked out by enemy action during a crisis, the US, Russia and China have the capability to
launch substitute satellites into space at short notice. The US can move its satellites from one orbit level to another, higher level to escape being taken
out by an enemy anti-satellite system (ASAT). India can program a satellite launch only on a programmed sequence basis and not on short
notice for rapid launches to replenish lost satellites, Prabhakar said. "India doesn't have even preliminary capability to defend its
satellites," he said, adding "it will take another 15 to 20 years or more before India can put these systems in place." For all its
impressive achievements in building and launching satellites, India is decades away from establishing a fully-operational aerospace
command. It has formidable capability in building satellites. It is now trying to find a way to defend them.
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AT: INDONESIAN INSTABILITY
1. Indonesia no longer weak enough to collapse – new army chief, better economy, fewer regional conflicts, and lower
corruption
Jusuf Wanandi (founder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia)) 2002:
Indonesia: A Failed State? http://www.twq.com/02summer/wanandi.pdf.
In the last two months, the government has begun attending to some of the priorities mentioned above, slightly stabilizing Indonesia’s
weak state. In April 2002, Megawati proposed a new commander in chief for the military, former chief of staff of the army General
Endriartono Sutarto. He is professionally inclined and able to unite the armed forces, which are still divided and demoralized five
years after the fall of Suharto. If Sutarto is successful, the government will be able to push the military to do its job once more and
support the police against insurgencies, without worrying too much that the military could again cause mischief. The economy has
also improved recently, as the government slowly implements reforms. In part, increases in domestic consumption and in the price of
oil have driven growth. Despite more than two years of political resistance, the BCA Bank, the biggest asset of the IBRA (Indonesian
Bank Restructuring Agency), was sold, exemplifying the government’s promising decisiveness. The Indonesian currency, the rupiah,
has strengthened by 10– 12 percent; economic growth is expected to be nearly 4 percent; and unemployment appears to have
decreased. Exports are also expected to rise in the second half of 2002 as the U.S. and European Union economies recover. In the
meantime, regional conflicts have subsided. The Poso conflict in Central Sulawesi has basically ended, and the agreement negotiated
by Jusuf Kalla (coordinating minister for people’s welfare) is working. The situation in the Moluccas Islands conflict has improved,
although not completely ended due to implementation problems, namely how to remove the Laskar Jihad and some army and police
members from the islands. The conflict in Aceh has entered a negotiating mode again and is moving in the right direction. At this
stage, 60 percent of the Aceh people are considered to be pro- Indonesia, as opposed to two years ago when 90 percent were
considered to be pro-independence. Megawati has even established an ad hoc human rights tribunal to prosecute the abusers of human
rights in East Timor during the time of the referendum in 1999. Officials are making progress in the fight against corruption. The
attorney general’s office has again brought more serious accusations against Tommy Suharto, the son of President Suharto, for
masterminding the killing of a Supreme Court judge in 2000. Authorities have detained some shady businessmen, who have not made
any serious attempts to pay their debt, for interrogation and prosecutorial purposes. Even high-ranking officials such as the governor
of the Central Bank, Syahril Sabirin, who was sentenced to three years in prison, have been tried in court, while officials detained the
speaker of Parliament, Akbar Tandjung, for interrogation in a corruption case.
2. Impact is empirically denied – the Aceh rebellion should have caused the impacts
Jusuf Wanandi (founder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia)) 2002:
Indonesia: A Failed State? http://www.twq.com/02summer/wanandi.pdf.
Regional conflicts are the most visible sign of the breakdown of the central government’s authority, and no clear strategy to overcome
these problems seems to exist. One has a sense of drift. The political elite knows only one way to solve conflicts: by force, a method
used many times. Yet, force has never been completely successful; simply repeating tried tactics will not solve these problems. The
most debilitating conflict is in the province of Aceh, where three rebellions have occurred in the last 20 years. The government is still
looking for a military victory even though it could not solve the problem through force even at the height of its military might in the
early 1990s. The government had subdued the rebellion twice by military means, but the conflict resurfaced after several years. At the
same time, 10,000 people, many of them innocent civilians, have become victims; hundreds of thousands have become internal
refugees. The problem began when the Acehnese felt the Suharto regime had neglected and marginalized them and they exhibited
their defiance. Because Golkar, the government’s party, had never won a majority in Aceh, the government marginalized the province.
Military abuses were so horrendous that the situation turned into a full-fledged rebellion. The Acehnese now demand, first and
foremost, judicial condemnation for the perpetrators of human rights violations, especially those conducted at the end of the 1980s and
the beginning of the 1990s. They also demand a fairer share of the revenues from their abundant natural resources.
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AT: INDO-PAK WAR
1. War between India and Pakistan is unlikely, although tensions may last for a few months
Zhongfa, staff writer for China View, 1/12/09
(Li Zhongfa, staff writer for China View, 1/12/09, http://ips-pk.org/content/view/816/177/)
The tensions between Pakistan and India might last for another three or four months until the general elections held in India, a
Pakistani analyst said on Monday, adding that there is very little possibility of war.
"Perhaps the tensions will continue for the next three or four months until the elections are held in India," said Khalid Rahman,
Director General of Islamabad based Institute of Policy Studies, in an interview with Xinhua.
Before India's general elections in May, political parties in India will take a hard stance against Pakistan to win popularity at home,
said Rahman.
Pakistan-India tensions were heightened as the Indian side accused Pakistan-based militant groups of involvement in November's
Mumbai attacks, which killed more than 170. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said last week that "official agencies" in
Pakistan were also involved in the Mumbai attacks. But Islamabad has denied the allegations.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said Sunday that it would respond to a dossier of evidence from India in the next few days.
The spiraling tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries have sparked speculations among the media that India might carry out
surgical strikes inside Pakistan.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said on Sunday that Pakistan's defense is in strong hands and the nation will not be
frightened by any threats.
"That is just a war of words... there is very little possibility of war between the two countries," said Rahman.
"The two countries can not afford a war" because they both have nuclear weapons, Rahman said. Rahman also said the international
community, particularly the United States, don't want a war or conflict between the two countries.
2. Indo-Pak nuclear conflict unlikely.
The Michigan Daily ’02 (“Experts say nuclear war still unlikely,” http://www.michigandaily.com/content/experts-say-nuclear-war-still-unlikely)
University political science Prof. Ashutosh Varshney becomes animated when asked about the likelihood of nuclear war between
India and Pakistan. "Odds are close to zero," Varshney said forcefully, standing up to pace a little bit in his office. "The assumption
that India and Pakistan cannot manage their nuclear arsenals as well as the U.S.S.R. and U.S. or Russia and China concedes less to the
intellect of leaders in both India and Pakistan than would be warranted." The world"s two youngest nuclear powers first tested
weapons in 1998, sparking fear of subcontinental nuclear war a fear Varshney finds ridiculous. "The decision makers are aware of
what nuclear weapons are, even if the masses are not," he said. "Watching the evening news, CNN, I think they have vastly overstated
the threat of nuclear war," political science Prof. Paul Huth said. Varshney added that there are numerous factors working against the
possibility of nuclear war. "India is committed to a no-first-strike policy," Varshney said. "It is virtually impossible for Pakistan to go
for a first strike, because the retaliation would be gravely dangerous." Political science Prof. Kenneth Lieberthal, a former special
assistant to President Clinton at the National Security Council, agreed. "Usually a country that is in the position that Pakistan is in
would not shift to a level that would ensure their total destruction," Lieberthal said, making note of India"s considerably larger nuclear
arsenal. "American intervention is another reason not to expect nuclear war," Varshney said. "If anything has happened since
September 11, it is that the command control system has strengthened. The trigger is in very safe hands." But the low probability of
nuclear war does not mean tensions between the two countries who have fought three wars since they were created in 1947 will not
erupt. "The possibility of conventional war between the two is higher. Both sides are looking for ways out of the current tension,"
Lieberthal said.
3. India-Pakistan nuclear war doesn’t escalate
The Hamilton Spectator, 5/24/2002
For those who do not live in the subcontinent, the most important fact is that the damage would be largely confined to the region.
The Cold War is over, the strategic understandings that once tied India and Pakistan to the rival alliance systems have all been
cancelled, and no outside powers would be drawn into the fighting. The detonation of a hundred or so relatively small nuclear
weapons over India and Pakistan would not cause grave harm to the wider world from fallout. People over 40 have already lived
through a period when the great powers conducted hundreds of nuclear tests in the atmosphere, and they are mostly still here.
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AT: INDUSTRIAL AGRICUTLURE
Impossible to solve industrial agriculture.
Stuart Staniford, 1/22/2008. Stuart Staniford is a consultant (Invicta Consulting) who earned a PhD in Physics (UC Davis) with an
MS in Computer Science (UC Davis) and lead editor of The Oil Drum. “The Fallacy of Reversibility,” The Oil Drum,
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3481.
This implies that the process of industrialization and development is a reversible process. We in the developed world have evolved
from low-energy high-agriculture societies into a high-energy low-agriculture society. So the thinking goes that we can/should/will
reverse that process and go back to something like what we were 200 years ago (at least on these large macro-economic variables).
Now, coming from a background as a scientist, there are many reversible processes familiar in science (and indeed in everyday life),
but there are also a lot of irreversible processes. Some examples of reversible processes - if you lift up a weight, you can set it back
down again into the same position it was in before. If you blow up a balloon, then, up to a certain point, you can let the air out and get
back more or less the uninflated balloon you had before you started. If you pump water from a lower reservoir to a higher reservoir,
you can let it down again, and the lower reservoir will be in little different condition than if you hadn't bothered. If you freeze a liquid
by cooling it, you can warm it up again and have the same liquid. Here are some examples of irreversible processes. If you let grape
juice ferment into wine, there's no way to get grape juice back. If you bake a cake in the oven, there's no way to turn it back into cake
dough. If you ice and decorate the cake, but then accidentally drop it on the floor, there's no way to pick it up and have anything
approaching the same cake as if you hadn't dropped it. So when you industrialize a society, is that a reversible process? Can you take it
on a backward path to a deindustrialized society that looks in the important ways like the society you had before the industrialization?
As far as I can see, the "second wave" peak oil writers treat it as fairly obvious that this is both possible and desirable. It appears to me
that it is neither possible or desirable, but at a minimum, someone arguing for it should seriously address the question. And it is this
failure that I am calling the Fallacy of Reversibility. It is most pronounced in Kunstler, who in addition to believing we need a much
higher level of involvement in agriculture also wants railways, canals, and sailing ships back, and is a strong proponent of nineteenth
century urban forms. I am going to christen this general faction of the peak oil community reversalists. This encompasses people
advocating a return to earlier food growing or distribution practices (the local food movement), folks wanting to bring back the
railways and tramcars, people believing that large scale corporations will all collapse, that the Internet will fail and we need to "make
our own music and our own drama down the road. We're going to need playhouses and live performance halls. We're going to need
violin and banjo players and playwrights and scenery-makers, and singers." And before moving on, I stress that I'm not making an
argument that our time is in all ways better than earlier times and that nostalgia for the past is entirely misplaced. Nor am I making an
argument that peak oil does not pose a massive and important challenge to us. Instead, I'm making an argument that society is unlikely
to reverse its trajectory of development, regardless of what we might like. Calls for it to do so are a distraction and get in the way of
figuring out what we really need to be doing, and what the real options and dangers are.
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AT: IRAN ATTACKS ISRAEL
Iranian threats to destroy Israel are ideological bluster.
Ted Galen Carpenter 2007 “Toward a Grand Bargain with Iran” MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/mediterranean_quarterly/v018/18.1carpenter.html
Such a comment is certainly reprehensible, but does it negate the long-standing realities of deterrence? Israel has between 150 and 300 nuclear weapons of
its own. Even if Iran can go forward with its nuclear program, it will not be able to build more than a dozen or so weapons over the
next decade—even assuming that the most alarmist predictions of the current state of the program prove valid. Moreover, Israel is moving to expand its
submarine fleet to have at least one nuclear-armed submarine on station at all times, giving the country a secure second-strike capability.15 Once that process is
complete, Tehran could not hope to launch a "decapitation" sneak attack based on the (already remote) possibility that Israel would be
unable to retaliate. As in the case of contemplating an attack on the United States, it would be most unwise for Iran to contemplate attacking Israel. The same
realities of deterrence apply, albeit on a smaller scale. In all likelihood, Iranian rhetoric about wiping Israel off the map is merely ideological blather.
Israel has more than a sufficient capability to deter an Iranian nuclear attack .
Iran will not attack Israel – fear of retaliation is too strong.
Barry R. Posen 2006 “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult but Not Impossible Policy Problem” CENTURY FOUNDATION
http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/posen_nuclear-armed.pdf
A few fission weapons would horribly damage the state of Israel, and a few fusion weapons would surely destroy it. But neither kind of
attack could reliably shield Iran from a devastating response. Israel has had years to work on developing and shielding its nuclear
deterrent. It is generally attributed with as many as 200 fission warheads, deliverable by several different methods, including Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile.12
Were Iran to proceed with a weapons program, Israel would surely improve its own capabilities. Though Iran’s population is large, and much of it is dispersed, about a
quarter of Iranians (over fifteen million people) live in eight cities conservatively within range of Israel’s Jericho II missile.13 Much of Iran’s economic capacity is also
concentrated in these cities.14 Nuclear attacks on these cities, plus some oil industry targets, would destroy Iran as a functioning society and prevent
its recovery. There is little in the behavior of the leaders of revolutionary Iran that suggests they would see this as a good trade.
Iran won’t attack Israel with nuclear weapons – would be vulnerable to U.S. retaliation.
Barry R. Posen 2006 “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult but Not Impossible Policy Problem” CENTURY FOUNDATION
http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/posen_nuclear-armed.pdf
On the other hand, it is virtually impossible for Iran to achieve a first-strike capability versus the United States. Any risks that Iran took in its basing mode
and alert posture to get ready for a first strike against Israel could easily make it more vulnerable to a first strike from the United
States. Spending its nuclear forces on Israel would leave Iran politically and militarily vulnerable to a huge U.S. retaliation. By
striking first, it would have legitimated a U.S. nuclear attack, while simultaneously weakening its own deterrent with the weapons it had
expended. The United States is the greater threat to Iran because it is much more powerful than Israel, and has actual strategic objectives in the Gulf. It is strategically
reasonable for Iran to focus its deterrent energies on the United States, which it can only influence with a secure retaliatory force, capable of threatening U.S. forces and
interests in the region.
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AT: IRAN BLOCKS STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Iran would not and could not block the Straits of Hormuz: Empirical examples and allies prove
Fattouh 07
(Bassam, Consultant Senior Research Fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, specialist in the international oil pricing system,
“How Secure are Middle East Oil Supplies?”, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September)
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/WPM33.pdf
Many believe that the narrowness of shipping lanes and the difficulty of oil tankers to manoeuvre make the Straits of Hormuz
vulnerable to politically-motivated disruptions. However, history suggests otherwise. In 1983, the Iranians threatened to close the
Straits of Hormuz following the delivery of French planes to Iraq. In a radio announcement, Hashimi Rafsanjani (the Speaker of the
Parliament) threatened that Iran would block the Straits of Hormuz by sinking a VLCC at the mouth of the Persian Gulf (El-Shazly,
1998). In what was known as the Iraq–Iran ‘Tanker War’, there were 554 attacks on oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz which
resulted in the deaths of 400 sailors and the wounding of 400 more. These attacks did not result in a full blockage of transit. Even
when the fight was at its most intense, it disrupted no more than 2% of ships passing through the Persian Gulf (Blair and Lieberthal,
2007). In the current confrontations between the US and Iran on Iran’s nuclear program, threats to block the straits of Hormuz are
again being made. In 2006, the Iranian deputy Basij commander, General Majid Mir Ahmadi, threatened to block oil traffic if the
West hurt Iran’s economy over its nuclear program. It is, however, very difficult to envisage a scenario in which the Straits of Hormuz
would be blocked for a long period of time. Blocking the Straits of Hormuz would defy international conventions and would increase
Iran’s isolation. The closure of this oil transit route would alienate Iran’s allies in Asia and elsewhere as the adverse impacts of the
blockade would spread across the globe. In other words, the use of this ‘weapon’ is completely indiscriminate and if Iran attempted to
block international shipping, it would face a very wide and powerful coalition.
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AT: IRAN – CENTRAL ASIAN EXPANSION
Iran can’t expand into Central Asia, there are differences in Islamic ideology
Amland – US Army Colonel 4/7/03 (George S., USMC, United States Army War College “GLOBALIZATION AND US FOREIGN
POLICY WITH IRAN” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA413445) MFR
On the northern borders of Iran, a different form of economic globalization is affecting US containment policy. After the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991, the US took immediate steps to recognize the independence of all the former Central Asian Republics. By mid-1992 all 5 new
states received US diplomatic missions and in October 1992 the US Congress had passed the Freedom Support Act to provide aid to the new Eurasian states. Ostensibly the US also admitted to the
dangers the region faced from Iranian sponsored fundamentalism and was determined not to let the opportunity of exerting regional
influence pass by.73 An interesting phenomenon of this northern Iranian geo-strategic region is that while the adjoining states are predominantly
Muslim, the long term secular Russian presence has made their form of religious ideology incompatible with that of Iran.74 Across central
Asia, a parallel form of Islam existed during the Soviet domination. Sufi orders established a pervasive form of Islam that is founded on
private piety and not in political activism.75 Iran erroneously assumed that with the fall of the Soviet Union it would fill the void with
a more fundamentalist and revolutionary Islamic presence in order to consolidate its position in the Caspian region. Fortunately for US
policy, the years of Marxist ideology and Russian technocracy appears to have irretrievably altered the religious complexion of
regional Muslims.76 The best that Iran can hope for in the future is some form of economic cooperation with its northern neighbors.77
An interesting political irony also has evolved throughout this process. Despite the overwhelming Islamic prominence in this region,
the acceleration of the integration of Central Asia into the global economy is strongly supported by the Union of Orthodox Jewish
Congregations of America. As this is one of the founders of the Jewish political lobby in the US, this support has sent strong signals to
the European, Asian and Middle East Jewish communities and created implications for Iranian integration in the process.78
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AT: IRAN PROLIF 1/2
1. The U.S. will apply sanctions, which solve the impact
Michael Jacobson (senior fellow in the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy and a former senior adviser in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the U.S. Department of the Treasury) 2008:
Sanctions against Iran: A Promising Struggle. http://www.twq.com/08summer/docs/08summer_jacobson.pdf
The Treasury Department’s role at the center of a major national security initiative is part of a broader shift in the department’s post–September 11 mission. In the past,
the department, like other finance ministries around the world, focused largely on economic and financial issues and was often reluctant to get involved in these types of
matters. Although there are several reasons for the Treasury Department’s relative success, the most important factor relates to the United
States’ status as the world’s leading financial center. Paulson stated that the Treasury Department “can effectively use these tools
largely because the United States is the key hub of the global financial system; we are the banker to the world.”25 Losing access to the
U.S. market is not a worthwhile risk for most banks for the sake of maintaining business ties to designated terrorists or WMD
proliferators.26 As such, banks from around the world refer to the Treasury Department designation list, which exists not only for
Iran-related targets, but also for terrorists, drug traffickers, and other rogue actors, and implement U.S. unilateral sanctions voluntarily.
As a result, according to the department, U.S. unilateral sanctions are “anything but.”27 Financial institutions are particularly eager to
avoid being the “next ABN AMRO,” the Dutch bank fined $80 million by the United States in 2005 for having an inadequate program
in place to ensure compliance with the U.S. sanctions against Iran and Libya. The Financial Times noted that the fine sent “seismic
waves through the international banking system” and that “reverberations are still being felt today.”28 The specific warnings issued by
Treasury Department leadership have greatly amplified the impact of U.S. unilateral measures . In a March 2007 speech, Stuart Levey,
undersecretary of the treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, stated that “those who are tempted to deal with targeted high-risk actors are put on notice: if they
continue this relationship, they may be next.”29 Although the speech itself received little public attention, it was duly noted by financial institutions throughout the
world.30 Recent reports that two British banks, Lloyds TSB and Barclays, are under investigation by the Department of Justice and the Manhattan district attorney’s
office for possible violations of the Iran sanctions regime should only heighten the financial sector’s concern.31 The fact that the oil market has traditionally
been priced in dollars gives the United States additional leverage against Iran. To complete oil-related transactions, foreign banks
convert assets into dollars, generally through the U.S. system, thus exposing their institution to potential U.S. sanctions . Stuart Eizenstat,
former deputy secretary of the treasury, explained that this is why “[s]anctions involving banks and financial institutions are the most significant”
aspect of the U.S. government’s overall Iran strategy.32 The financial institutions’ decisions have also been driven by reputational risk considerations.
Maintaining stellar reputations is one of a bank’s top priorities. Avoiding the type of specific risk outlined by the Treasury Department makes sense
from a business perspective.33 Furthermore, as Paulson observed, once some private-sector entities have taken action, it becomes “a greater reputational risk for others
not to follow, and so they often do.”34 Targeted financial measures themselves also have a number of advantages over traditional, broad-
based trade sanctions. First, targeted financial measures are designed to be regime hostile and people friendly, causing economic harm
to the entities designated but not to innocent civilians.35 Second, the Treasury Department has employed these tools in a graduated
manner, giving Iran numerous opportunities to alter their behavior before further measures are imposed. As a result, the department is
able to demonstrate that the purpose of such measures is not simply to punish the Iranian regime, but also to encourage a change in
behavior. This has facilitated U.S. efforts to build international support for these actions, which is key to their overall success.36
2. UN action will prevent a nuclear Iran – China will be on board
Dingli Shen (professor and executive dean at the Institute of International Studies and deputy director of the Center for American
Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai) 2006: Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions Test China’s Wisdom. http://www.twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_shen.pdf
The Iranian nuclear issue has reached a turning point. Iran claims that it is entitled to nuclear sovereignty over civilian nuclear power and has denied that it has had a
nuclear weapons program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been able to present definitive evidence of an Iranian
nuclear weapons program over the past two decades1 or for the UN Security Council to take action until March 2006.2 Meanwhile, in his
2002 State of the Union speech, President George W. Bush signaled his intention to keep a spotlight on Iran when he labeled it part of the “axis of evil,” alongside
North Korea and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.3 In the years since, however, Washington has not been able to thwart Iran’s pursuit of uranium enrichment diplomatically4 or
to reach a political consensus to use force. For the past two years, the European Union-3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) have been making reconciliatory
efforts with Iran but have met with little success. The EU-3 have proposed to offer Iran a lightwater reactor (LWR), nuclear fuel, and technology, but such offers are
contingent on Iran suspending its uranium conversion.5 Otherwise, the EU-3 will not help to resolve this issue within the IAEA. Efforts to deal with the Iranian nuclear
issue through an even broader concert of global powers, the permanent members of the UN Security Council (P-5) and Germany, could lead the Security Council to
consider the matter in March unless a settlement can be reached, such as the Russian enrichment offer.6 In the face of these past failures and present
challenges, China, a P-5 member, could be forced to consider acting with the other major powers to curb Iran’s nuclear ambition. The
Iranian nuclear case thus presents China’s leaders with a prime opportunity to demonstrate their ability to balance their domestic
interests with their responsibilities as a growing global power. China’s rise has brought its multifaceted national interests to the fore
and into competition with one another, including securing stable and cooperative relations with other major powers ; developing peaceful
relations with neighbors and nearby states, including Iran; and gaining access to sufficient and reliable resources to sustain the nation’s growing economy. On one hand,
China has been increasingly supportive of the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, eager to be viewed as a “responsible
stakeholder” within the international community.7 At the same time, however, China’s economic boom has resulted in an energy thirst that is now affecting
Beijing’s foreign policy. Conventional wisdom holds that the friendly relationships that Beijing is cultivating with Iran, Myanmar, Sudan, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe,
among others, all of which have strained relations with the United States, are more or less tied to its petroleum needs.
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AT: IRAN PROLIF 2/2
3. No Iran nukes-it just wants energy, and Obama ensures it’s isolated
Reuters 10 [Reuters, “U.S. to pursue ‘aggressive’ Iran sanctions, Obama vows”,3/18/10, http://www.haaretz.com/news/u-s-to-pursueaggressive-iran-sanctions-obama-vows-1.264915]
Obama, who had made the goal of pursuing dialogue with Iran a cornerstone of his administration's foreign policy at the beginning of
his presidency, said he had been successful in getting the international community to isolate Tehran. "As we've seen, the Iranian
government has been more concerned about preventing their people from exercising their democratic and human rights than trying to
solve this problem diplomatically," Obama said in an interview with Fox News. "That's why we're going to go after aggressive
sanctions. We haven't taken any options off the table. We are going to keep on pushing," Obama said. Iran denies it is seeking to build
a nuclear bomb and says its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity. Obama said preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear
weapon was one of his administration's highest priorities.
4. No Iranian nukes – it’s against the laws of Islam
Munayyer 4/21/10 – executive director of the Jerusalem Fund for Education and Community Development, former policy analyst
with the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee [Yousef, April 21, 10, “Why Iran Won’t Attack Israel”
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/apr/21/opinion/la-oew-0421-munayyer-20100421]
Palestinians are in Israel today because they managed to survive the depopulation of 1948, the year the Jewish state was founded
(Arabs constitute about 20% of Israel's population). Ironically, while Benny Morris' scholarship suggests that the mere existence of
these Palestinians in Israel -- and millions more in the occupied territories -- irks him, Israel's substantial Arab population also blows a
hole in his argument about the need to deal with the supposed Iranian nuclear threat. Morris is part of an increasingly vociferous
chorus warning of an impending apocalypse for Israel at the hands of a nuclear Iran eager to rid the Middle East of its Jews. Yet Iran's
religious leaders have repeatedly stated that such weapons are "un-Islamic" or "forbidden under Islam."
5. Iran prolif doesn’t cause war
Hasson 10 (Nir Hasson, MIT Grad Student and writer for Haaretz News, “Clinton: U.S. has no plan to strike Iran over nuclear
program”, February 17, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/news/clinton-u-s-has-no-plan-to-strike-iran-over-nuclear-program-1.263497)
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the U.S. is not planning a military strike on Iran over its nuclear program, in a
television interview broadcast on Wednesday. "Obviously, we don't want Iran to become a nuclear weapons power, but we are not
planning anything other than going for sanctions," Clinton told Al-Arabiya television.
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EXT #1 – SANCTIONS SOLVE
Sanctions solve – even though Iran says they won’t work, it’s starting to crack
Michael Jacobson (senior fellow in the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy and a former senior adviser in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the U.S. Department of the Treasury) 2008:
Sanctions against Iran: A Promising Struggle. http://www.twq.com/08summer/docs/08summer_jacobson.pdf
What is most problematic is that the sanctions have yet to persuade Iran to cease activity on its nuclear program. Recent reports
indicate that Iran has developed its own advanced centrifuge, which could accelerate the pace of enrichment activities.64 Several
months earlier, Ahmadinejad bragged that Iran had 3,000 centrifuges running.65 Although the accuracy of the statement was
questionable at the time, it illustrates Iran’s eagerness to proceed with its nuclear ef forts.66 Iranian leaders have also publicly claimed
that sanctions and other forms of international pressure will have no effect on their nuclear activities. In reference to the potential third
round of UN sanctions, Ahmadinejad charged that the UN would lose credibility if it took action against Tehran after the NIE.67
Although Iran has not yet backed down, the U.S.-led campaign has played a role in causing domestic political problems for Iranian
hard-liners. In September 2007, former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a moderate opposed to the regime’s confrontational
approach, was elected as the speaker of the Experts Assembly.68 Several days earlier, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed
Yahya Rahim Safavi, the IRGC’s commander since 1997, who was blacklisted by the UN in March 2007. Safavi’s replacement,
Muhammad Ali Jafari, confirmed that Safavi was removed primarily “due to the United States’ threats.”69 Finally, Motjtaba Hashemi
Samarah, one of Ahmadinejad’s close allies, was removed from his position as the deputy interior minister.70 Some observers believe
that the political and economic problems are starting to have an effect on the Iranian regime’s thinking about the nuclear issue.
Eizenstat noted, “I think it’s one of the reasons there’s at least the beginning of a debate in Iran about whether it’s wise to go forward
with the nuclear program.”71 Iran expert Kenneth Katzman argued that the political developments indicate that the U.S. strategy is
working, adding, “[W]e do see signs of a strategic reassessment in Iran.”72 In fact, the recently released NIE gives cause for optimism
that Iran might actually modify its behavior on its entire nuclear program in the face of the right mix of carrots and sticks. The NIE
noted that Iran’s nuclear-related decisions are guided by a “cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the
political, economic and military costs.”73 According to the NIE, Iran’s decision to halt its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003
was in response to “increasing international scrutiny,” suggesting that “Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue that we
judged previously.”
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EXT #2 – CHINA
China will be on board with UN action – needs Middle East stability for energy security
Dingli Shen (professor and executive dean at the Institute of International Studies and deputy director of the Center for American
Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai) 2006: Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions Test China’s Wisdom. http://www.twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_shen.pdf
Regionally, as the Chinese economy continues its rapid growth, Beijing’s interest in the Middle East is also expanding. Because it
promotes a smooth, predictable relationship with the region, China needs a peaceful and stable Middle East. A more proliferationprone environment complicates and likely harms China’s interests. Beijing appears to believe that the emergence of a regional nuclear
power or a nuclear arms race in the region would destabilize the Middle East and undercut China’s pursuit of energy security.
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AT: IRAN STRIKES (BY ISRAEL)
Israel will not attack Iran – would require American consent, risking retaliation.
Christopher Layne (grandson of realism and deterrence theory, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public
Service at Texas A&M University) 4/10/2006 "Iran: The Logic of Deterrence" THE AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE
http://www.amconmag.com/2006/2006_04_10/cover.html
The administration has flirted with the idea of farming-out to Israel the task of attacking Iran’s nuclear installations. But this—to recall
what one Soviet official said about Nikita Khruschev’s decision to deploy missiles in Cuba—truly would be “harebrained scheming.” To reach targets in
Iran, Israeli planes would have to overfly Iraq, which would require not only American consent but active co-ordination between the
Israeli air force and the U.S. military. Absolutely no one would be fooled into thinking the U.S. was an innocent bystander . The whole
world—and most important, the whole Islamic world—would know that Washington’s hand was the directing force behind an Israeli strike on Iran , which means
that the U.S. would be the main target of an Islamic backlash.
Political and military deterrence prevents Israeli first-strike.
Ehsaneh I. Sadr (graduate student in the department of government and politics at the University of Maryland, College Park)
SUMMER 2005 “THE IMPACT OF IRAN’S NUCLEARIZATION ON ISRAEL” MIDDLE EAST POLICY, VOL. XII, NO. 2
The military and political ramifications of an attack on Iran cannot , however, be so easily remedied by clever planning or arms acquisitions. The
worst-case scenario, which cannot be entirely dismissed, is that Iran already has a deliverable nuclear weapon that might survive and be used in retaliation for an Israeli
attack. A more likely result is that the Israeli attack, far from permanently eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, will delay it by only a few
years while simultaneously stimulating (and justifying) Iranian efforts to acquire such weapons as quickly as possible . Conventional
responses are also likely. Iran’s medium-range Shahab-3 missiles are likely to be launched at Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor or at an easier target like Tel Aviv.
Shorter-range Scuds might be fired by the Iranian-supported Hezbollah from its bases in south Lebanon. Even more troubling is the possibility of attacks against
military or civilian targets by sleeper cells of Israeli Arabs that would be activated by Israeli actions against Iran. An indication that such attacks are well within the
realm of the possible is the recent arrest of Israeli Mohammad Ghanem for alleged espionage on behalf of Iran.34 The United States, widely perceived as the
source of Israel’s power and protection, is also likely to bear the brunt of retaliatory action. U.S. vulnerabilities in Iraq would surely be
exploited by an Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) that is intimately familiar with the players and how they might be motivated or manipulated to
cause trouble for the United States or its allied Iraqi government. Were the Islamic Republic to seriously commit its resources to the funding and training of antiWestern jihadist groups like al-Qaeda, Americans might even be confronted with further attacks on the homeland. The political consequences of Israeli
action are sure to include increased anti- Americanism and anti-Zionism, not only among Arabs but also Europeans and much of the
developing world. Increased instability in the Middle East will strengthen the hand of extremists , making a political solution to the Palestinian
issue much more difficult and likely precluding any possibility of Arab-Israeli peace. Given the difficulty of military action against Iran, the very small
likelihood of its nuclear capabilities being damaged in any meaningful and non-recoverable way, and the exceedingly high military
and political costs associated with such an attack, it is important and necessary that Israel consider whether the costs of allowing Iran
to go nuclear might not be more tolerable.
The United States won’t green-light Israeli preemption.
World Tribune 1/5/2007 “Security official: U.S. no longer trusts Israel to strike Iran nukes” SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/07/front2454104.08125.html
The former Israeli official said he doubted whether the White House, out of fear that the operation would fail, would approve Israeli air
strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. "There is a harsh disappointment of us in the United States," Eiland said. "We didn't supply the
goods. It embarrassed our friends in the United States, our friends in Congress. It has long-range repercussions."
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AT: IRAN STRIKES (BY THE US)
1. Obama won’t strike Iran – even if it gets nuclear weapons, Obama’s preferred option is diplomacy
Donald Lambro 2/11/08 (The Washington Times, “Iraq aside, Democrats mum on foreign policy”, lexis)
Last year, though, Mrs. Clinton came under fire from antiwar activists when she voted for a bipartisan Senate resolution condemning
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization that was responsible for roadside bombings and other attacks on U.S.
forces in Iraq. Antiwar critics saw the vote as an attempt by the Bush administration to prepare to go to war against Iran unless it
abandoned its ambitions to develop nuclear weapons. Mr. Obama opposed the resolution but missed the vote because he was
campaigning. Many of Mr. Obama 's foreign policy advisers are also from the Clinton administration, including former National
Security Adviser Anthony Lake, Susan E. Rice, an assistant secretary of state during Mr. Clinton's second term, and former Navy
Secretary Richard Danzig. Also on his team are Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, Zbigniew Brezezinski, and former National
Security Agency counterterrorism specialist Richard Clarke. A key foreign policy clash that developed during debates between Mrs.
Clinton and Mr. Obama arose when he called for a change in dealing with rogue nations, saying he would hold unconditional talks
with leaders of Iran, North Korea and Cuba. Mrs. Clinton called his proposal "irresponsible and, frankly, naive." Mr. Obama shot
back, charging that her approach was outdated and represented a continuation of the Bush-Cheney policies. Mr. Obama 's foreign
policy emphasizes personal diplomacy, economic development and humanitarian aid, and he rejects the pre-emptive policies of the
Bush administration that led to the war in Iraq. "For most of our history, our crises have come from using force when we shouldn't, not
by failing to use force," he told the New York Times. "The United States is trapped by the Bush-Cheney approach to diplomacy that
refuses to talk to leaders we don't like. Not talking doesn't make us look tough; it makes us look arrogant," he says on his campaign
Web site. But Mr. O'Hanlon thinks Mr. Obama 's eagerness for one-on-one meetings with leaders of rogue nations "would cheapen the
value of a presidential summits." "You don't want a president using his time by being lied to by foreign leaders. Hillary would be
much more pragmatic. She suggested midlevel talks with Iran. Obama would look weak, and Hillary would not look weak," he said.
2. No impact to Iran retaliating against a military attack
Chuck Freilich, Jerusalem Post, June 26, 2008, p.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1214132686901&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
There is little doubt that Iran will respond to a direct attack, or a blockade, but its options, heated rhetoric notwithstanding, are actually
limited. What can it truly do? Attack American ships, block the Gulf? Maybe a pinprick to make it look good at home, but beyond
that, the risks of escalation and the costs to Iran's economy are too great. Iran is extremist, not irrational. It may very well cause the US
greater difficulty in Iraq, and increased terror can be expected against US and Western targets. It is highly unlikely, however, that Iran
would be willing to go beyond limited actions and risk direct military escalation, not when the US has 150,000 soldiers on its
doorstep. Moreover, US preparations can greatly reduce, though not eliminate, the dangers of Iran's potential responses.
Oil prices will further skyrocket and Iran could add to the crisis by cutting output, but anything beyond temporary measures would be
tantamount to cutting off its nose to spite its face. There will be a strong public reaction in the Moslem world, though Arab regimes
will be quietly relieved to be free of a nuclear Iran. If the US plays out the diplomatic route first, international reaction will be muted.
3. No risk of Iran strikes—any discussion is just political posturing that isn’t taken seriously
Steve Clemons, 7/23, 2010, The Progressive Realist, “Stop Hyperventilating: Obama Will Not choose War with Iran,”
http://progressiverealist.org/blogpost/stop-hyperventilating-obama-will-not-choose-war-iran, RG
While there are individuals in the Obama administration who are flirting with the possibility of military action against Iran, they
are fewer in number than existed in the Bush administration. They are surrounded by a greater number of realists who are
working hard to find a way to reinvent America's global leverage and power -- and who realize that a war with Iran ends that
possibility and possibly spells an end to America presuming to be the globally predominant power it has been. There are also
political opportunists in the Obama administration -- who after a horrible year of relations between the President and Israeli
Prime Minister -- want to spin the deep tensions over Israel-Palestine away long enough to get through the next set of 2010
elections. There are many who worry too much that Obama's recent highly scripted, positive, buddy-buddy encounter with
Benjamin Netanyahu means that the United States is acquiescing to Israel's view of Iran, of settlements, and of the world. This
would be a misread of the situation. Come December 2010, my hunch is that all of those who have recently placed faith in a
White House posture of Israel uber alles will be as disappointed in the Obama White House as many other interest groups have
been who thought that Obama would deliver on their single issue. In this case, Obama will stick to script and offer a similar line
as Ariel Sharon once offered after being criticized by his supporters on Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza: "One has to
weigh many different options in determining our nation's security needs Things look different when sitting behind the Prime
Minister's desk." This will be true for Barack Obama as well -- who knows that there is no winning outcome for the US and its
allies if he chooses a military course with Iran, even if some of his team seem to enjoy flirting with that option.
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EXT #1 – NO STRIKES
Obama won’t strike Iran – only sanctions will make Iran stop its nuclear program
The Guardian 11/3/07 (“Iran: Stopping nuclear ambitions”, lexis)
Bombing Iran would be a disaster. Even if bombs busted Iran's nuclear bunkers, they would still miss their target. A military strike
on the uranium-enrichment centrifuges would hasten an Iranian weapons programme, not delay it. A pre-emptive strike would turn
a covert programme into an overt one, this time with the full backing of a wounded nation. Iran would leave the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT), spelling the end of visits by international nuclear inspectors. Iran has already violated the NPT by
failing to declare experiments with nuclear materials, but its formal departure from the regulatory regime would leave it free to
pursue its nuclear programme unfettered by inspection. And Iran would have 154,000 US targets in Iraq to fire back at. But letting
Iran pursue its nuclear ambitions would be no less cataclysmic. The arrival of the Iranian bomb would set off an arms race among
the Sunni states in the Gulf unparalleled in the history of nuclear proliferation. The absence of Arab reaction to the Israeli bombing
of a suspected nuclear facility under construction in the Syrian desert was a telling sign of the fear spreading in the region. Even
assuming Tehran would not pass fissile material to its proxies, Hizbullah and Hamas, the mere possession of a nuclear capability
would give an unstable populist regime untold military and diplomatic clout. International negotiations are logjammed. A grand
bargain offered four years ago, whereby Iran stops uranium enrichment in return for uranium for its fuel cycle, generous aid
packages and a full return to the international stage, is still on the table. Iran has refused to comply with two previous rounds of
UN sanctions and the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany were struggling yesterday in London to come up with a
third round. The threat of military action does not give the diplomats more force. It muddies their efforts by dividing world opinion
and allowing Iran to believe that it can stall indefinitely. If the military option can not be used, it must be removed from the table.
What the Iranian regime fears is a unified international response, because only then would it face a genuine choice between the
bomb and penury. Russia and China would have no choice but to support tougher economic sanctions, and Germany and Italy
might even stop their export credit guarantees. The Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama said he would personally
negotiate with the regime if it forgoes pursuit of nuclear weapons. The desire to solve this issue needs that sort of commitment, if
the west is not to find itself igniting another fire in the Middle East that it can not put out.
Obama won’t strike Iran
NPR 8/13/07 (“Obama: Iran requires direct diplomacy”, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=15251928)
Sen. Barack Obama says that as president, he would use direct diplomacy to constrain Iran's role in Iraq, encouraging Iran to
cooperate with the United States through non-military means. In an interview with NPR's Andrea Seabook from a campaign stop in Iowa , Obama
said that he'd use whatever military force is necessary to protect U.S. citizens, but that "the military option is not the only option in the toolbox." "I
think Iran understands what military threats we pose. You know, they're not surprised that we could strike them, and strike them hard," Obama said. "What we
haven't suggested in any way is what advantages they would have in acting more responsibly in the region. That's been the missing ingredient." The Illinois
Democrat's comments follow a week of sparring over Iran with his main rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, who has a commanding lead in the polls. On Thursday, Clinton
said she'd meet with Iranian leaders "without preconditions" — a position she criticized Obama for taking earlier in the summer. Obama also questioned Clinton's
judgment in voting for last month's Kyl-Lieberman amendment, which identified the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. Obama said the
amendment included language that empowers the president to attack Iran."This is a lesson that I think Sen. Clinton and others should have learned: that you can't
give this president a blank check and then act surprised when he cashes it," Obama said.
Obama will not strike Iran
FOXNews.com, 7- 9, 2008 “MCCAIN, OBAMA STAKE OUT DIFFERENCES ON IRANIAN MISSILE TESTS”
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/09/obama-says-iranian-missile-tests-prove-need-for-diplomacy/
“I would want to talk to the national security team to find out whether this indicates any new capabilities on Iran’s part. At this
point, the reports aren’t clear. It’s still early,” Obama told CBS’ “Early Show.” “But I think what this underscores is the need for
us to create a kind of policy that is putting the burden on Iran to change behavior. And, frankly, we just have not been able to do
that over the last several years. Partly because we’re not engaged in direct diplomacy,” he said. His campaign released a statement
saying: “These missile tests demonstrate once again that we need to change our policy to deal aggressively with the threat posed
by the Iranian regime. “Now is the time to work with our friends and allies, and to pursue direct and aggressive diplomacy with the
Iranian regime backed by tougher unilateral and multilateral sanctions. It’s time to offer the Iranians a clear choice between
increased costs for continuing their troubling behavior, and concrete incentives that would come if they change course.” McCain
told reporters in South Park, Pa., that the reported tests prove Iran is a threat to the surrounding region. “Channels of
communication have been open and will remain open, but the time has now come for effective sanctions on Iran,” he said.
“Diplomacy plays a key role … but history shows us when nations embark on paths that can jeopardize the security of the region
and the world then other action besides diplomacy has to be contemplated and taken, and that’s why meaningful and impactful
sanctions are called for at this time.” McCain said there is “continuing, mounting evidence that Iran is pursuing the acquisition of
nuclear weapons,” a statement that appears at odds with a December U.S. intelligence report that concluded the country’s nuclear
weapons program was halted in the fall of 2003.
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AT: IRAQI INSTABILITY
1. Unstable now - Post-election Iraq is an unstable sectarian mess – no chance of national unity
Ricks, 10 [Thomas, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security who covered the war in Iraq for The Washington Post, is
the author of “Fiasco” and “The Gamble.” He also writes the Best Defense blog for Foreign Policy magazine. February 23, 2010,
“Extending Our Stay in Iraq ,” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/opinion/24ricks.html]
IRAQ’S March 7 national election, and the formation of a new government that will follow, carry huge implications for both
Iraqis and American policy. It appears now that the results are unlikely to resolve key political struggles that could return the
country to sectarianism and violence.
If so, President Obama may find himself later this year considering whether once again to break his campaign promises about
ending the war, and to offer to keep tens of thousands of troops in Iraq for several more years. Surprisingly, that probably is the
best course for him, and for Iraqi leaders, to pursue.
Whether or not the elections bring the long-awaited political breakthrough that genuinely ends the fighting there, 2010 is likely
to be a turning-point year in the war, akin to the summer of 2003 (when the United States realized that it faced an insurgency)
and 2006 (when that insurgency morphed into a small but vicious civil war and American policy came to a dead end). For good
or ill, this is likely the year we will begin to see the broad outlines of post-occupation Iraq. The early signs are not good, with the
latest being the decision over the weekend of the leading Sunni party, the National Dialogue Front, to withdraw from the
elections.
The political situation is far less certain, and I think less stable, than most Americans believe. A retired Marine colonel I know,
Gary Anderson, just returned from Iraq and predicts a civil war or military coup by September. Another friend, the journalist Nir
Rosen, avers that Iraq is on a long-term peaceful course. Both men know Iraq well, having spent years working there. I have not
seen such a wide discrepancy in expert views since late 2005.
2. Iraq won’t escalate – tons of other civil wars disprove
Yglesias, 07
(Matthew Yglesias, “Containing Iraq”, 9/12/07, http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/containing_iraq.php)
Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on the "Middle East in Flames" theory holding that American withdrawal from Iraq will lead
not only to a short-term intensification of fighting in Iraq, but also to some kind of broader regional conflagration. Ivo Daalder and
James Lindsay, as usual sensible but several clicks to my right, also make this point briefly in Democracy: "Talk that Iraq’s troubles
will trigger a regional war is overblown; none of the half-dozen civil wars the Middle East has witnessed over the past half-century led
to a regional conflagration."
3. US military is already withdrawing from Iraq – instability is inevitable
CNN 09
(CNN, 2/27/09, http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/27/obama.troops/index.html)
President Obama said Friday he plans to withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of August 2010. Between 35,000 to 50,000
troops will remain in Iraq, he said. They would be withdrawn gradually until all U.S. forces are out of Iraq by December 31, 2011 -the deadline set under an agreement the Bush administration signed with the Iraqi government last year. "Let me say this as plainly as
I can: By August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end," Obama said in a speech at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. "By any
measure, this has already been a long war," Obama said. It is time to "bring our troops home with the honor they have earned."
Obama's trip to Camp Lejeune, a Marine Corps base, was his first trip to a military base since being sworn in. Administration officials,
who briefed reporters on the plan, said the remaining troops would take on advisory roles in training and equipping Iraqi forces,
supporting civilian operations in Iraq and conducting targeted counterterrorism missions, which would include some combat. But the
ultimate success or failure of the war in Iraq, Obama said, would rest with the Iraqi people themselves. The U.S. "cannot police Iraq's
streets indefinitely until they are completely safe," the president said. It is up to the Iraqis, he said, to ensure a future under a
government that is "sovereign, stable and self-reliant." "We sent our troops to Iraq to do away with Saddam Hussein's regime and you
got the job done," he said, referring to the troops.The U.S. military had also "exceeded every expectation" suppressing the insurgency
in the years that followed. Al Qaeda in Iraq had been dealt "a serious blow," the president added. "The capacity of Iraq's security
forces has improved, and Iraq's leaders have made strides toward political accommodation" through steps such as January's provincial
elections.
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AT: IRAQI DEMOCRACY
No chance of Iraqi Democracy – corruption kills it
Brinkley 10 [Joel Brinkley, Joel Brinkley, a professor of journalism at Stanford University, is a former foreign correspondent for the
New York Times, “Iraqi democracy crippled by widespread corruption”, The San Francisco Chronicle, http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/06/26/IN0D1E0R29.DTL]
As American troops withdraw from Iraq this summer, expect the democratic freedoms Iraqis have enjoyed in recent years to recede as well.
Already, the Iraqi government is restricting freedom of the press, expression and assembly. It's toying with Web censorship, torturing
political prisoners and killing political opponents. Even with all of that, Iraq remains freer than every other Arab state except Lebanon. The
United States wrote democratic freedoms into Iraq's constitution, including protections for women and minorities, offering as a tacit
guarantee the active presence of 150,000 American troops. But now the guarantors are leaving. A large part of the problem is corruption.
Under American stewardship, Iraq has become one of the half-dozen most corrupt nations on earth. "Significant widespread corruption"
afflicts "all levels of government," the State Department says. Nothing can so quickly cripple a democracy as the need by the nation's leaders
to protect their cash flow and hide all evidence of their thefts. That leads, at least, to electoral fraud and press censorship. How can corrupt
officials survive if the press is free to rep
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AT: ISRAEL WARS (FROM TERRORIST ATTACK)
Conflict from terrorism against Israel won’t escalate – states won’t get involved
Rubin, 2006 - Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center of the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in
Herzliya, Israel (Barry, Foreign Affairs, July-August, “Israel's New Strategy”, p. lexis
At the same time, a number of other developments suggested that although the conflict would continue, it would not spread or escalate.
For one, Saddam's fall removed a major threat. Meanwhile, other Arab regimes -- challenged by Islamists and strategically weak -- started to
be willing to sacrifice some of their support for the Palestinians in exchange for improved relations with the United States. Even if
they would not make peace with Israel, they also did not want war, and their support for the Palestinians hit rock bottom. And all of this
reinforced the trends set off by the ending of the Cold War and the consequent shift in the international balance of power. Israel's
security environment started to look very different. Arab armies and arms appeared less dangerous, and occupying territory became less important than
having clear defensive lines that did not enclose a hostile population.
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AT: ISRAEL WARS (OTHER COUNTRIES)
War against Israel won’t escalate – just small proxy wars
Sappenfield, 06 - staff writer (Mark, Christian Science Monitor, “Wider war in Middle East? Not likely”, 6/18, lexis)
Of the dangers presented by the conflict between Israel and Hizbullah in southern Lebanon, the possibility of a broader Middle East war is among
the less likely.
In the 1967 Arab-Israeli war - and repeatedly since - Israel has shown its clear military supremacy. So dominant has been Israel's advantage in both
technology and tactics that former foes such as Jordan and Egypt sued for peace in those wars, while Tel Aviv's avowed enemies - Syria and
Iran - have turned to backing terrorists.
At this moment, the calculus doesn't appear to have changed. There is no coalition of Arab governments willing to unite militarily
against Israel. Syria's military prowess has crumbled since the fall of the Soviet Union - its greatest benefactor - while Iran remains too
geographically remote to strike effectively.
The result is a new paroxysm of the proxy war that has existed in the region for a generation - ebbing and flowing as Hizbullah, armed
and financed by Iran and Syria, harass Israel without provoking a major Middle East war, military analysts say.
"No state is willing to deal with Israel conventionally," says Seth Jones, a terrorism expert at the RAND Corp.
The shape of the conflict so far - sparked by Hizbullah's raid into northern Israel and capture of two Israeli soldiers - reveals both the capabilities and limitations of each
side.
Historically, Hizbullah has been able to do little more than nip at Israel's northern border with incursions and sporadic rocket attacks. By and large, its arsenal is
primitive, comprising various short-range rockets that can destroy buildings only with a direct hit, yet are difficult to aim with any precision. It has continually fired
rockets into northern Israel.
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AT: ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
1. Israel Palestine conflict won’t escalate or spark other conflicts
Luttwak, 07 - senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Edward, American Prospect, “The Middle of
Nowhere”, May, http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=9302)
Yes, it would be nice if Israelis and Palestinians could settle their differences, but it would do little or nothing to calm the other
conflicts in the middle east from Algeria to Iraq, or to stop Muslim-Hindu violence in Kashmir, Muslim-Christian violence in
Indonesia and the Philippines, Muslim-Buddhist violence in Thailand, Muslim-animist violence in Sudan, Muslim-Igbo violence in
Nigeria, Muslim-Muscovite violence in Chechnya, or the different varieties of inter-Muslim violence between traditionalists and
Islamists, and between Sunnis and Shia, nor would it assuage the perfectly understandable hostility of convinced Islamists towards the
transgressive west that relentlessly invades their minds, and sometimes their countries.
Arab-Israeli catastrophism is wrong twice over, first because the conflict is contained within rather narrow boundaries, and second
because the Levant is just not that important any more.
2. No escalation—Israel will strategically minimize any threat
Alpher 05 (Yossi, former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. “The Future of the IsraeliPalestinian Conflict: Critical Trends Affecting Israel.” United States Institute of Peace Special Report No. 149, Sept. 2005.
http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr149.html)
The elimination of the Iraqi armed forces in 2003 has, for the first time in Israel's fifty-seven-year history, minimized the danger of allout conventional war between Israel and a coalition of its neighbors attacking from the east, thereby reducing the strategic value for
Israel of the West Bank. Even before the removal of the Iraqi threat, Israel found that it could isolate a concerted Palestinian armed
campaign against it—the second intifada of 2000–2005—and thwart the Palestinian goal of generating regional military escalation.
Since 2003 the reality of Palestinian military isolation has become more stark than ever; it will only be compounded by the completion
of the security fence being erected by the Sharon government around the West Bank with the primary goal of preventing incursion
into Israel by Palestinian terrorists.
3. No spillover to the rest of the Middle East
Kohr ’07 (Howard, executive director of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, February. “Missing the link.” Deep South
Jewish Voice, Vol. 17, Issue 4.)
As the situation in Iraq remains dire, various detractors of Israel have once again rolled out an old and long-discredited fantasy. The
Israeli-Palestinian dispute is the core regional issue, they say; end it, and all other Middle Eastern problems - including Iraq - will
resolve themselves. Known as "linkage," this theory fails the test of simple logic and is thoroughly refuted by history. It should be
evident to the most casual Middle East observer that even if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were to be satisfactorily resolved, Sunnis
and Shia would continue to fight each other in Iraq and in other countries throughout the Middle East. This conflict is a schism within
Islam that stretches back to the seventh century. It has absolutely nothing to do with Israel. The Israeli-Palestinian problem isn't the
reason why Syria is meddling in Iraq and seeking to re-assert control over Lebanon. It doesn't explain why Iran is attempting to
develop nuclear arms and pursuing its age-old ambition of dominating the Persian Gulf region. And it has little to do with al-Qaeda's
quest to topple Muslim governments deemed insufficiently committed to the principles of Islamic fundamentalism. Neither does Israel
have any effect on the region-wide problems identified in the authoritatively documented reports issued by the U.N. Development
Program: corruption, illiteracy, economic stagnation and a lack of political freedom. Only the most outrageous of the world's
conspiracy theories could hold Israel responsible for imposing these problems on its neighbors. The emergence of a Palestinian state
would yield no material benefit to the one in five Arabs who lives on less than two dollars per day. It wouldn't diminish the temptation
for unelected autocrats to steal from their people. And it would not affect the region's staggering illiteracy rates or provide education to
the 10 million Arab children who receive no schooling at all.
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AT: ISRAELI-TURKISH WAR
Turkey-Israel nuclear war impossible- economic disincentive
Hallinan 6/24 [Conn, Staff Writer, World Bulletin, http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=60432] KLS
Ankara’s falling out with Israel is attributed to the growth of Islam, but while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and
Development Party does have a streak of Islamicism, Turkey’s anger at Israel is over policy not religion. The current Israeli
government has no interest in resolving its dispute with the Palestinians, and leading members of the Netanyahu coalition have
threatened war with Iran, Syria and Lebanon. A war with any of those countries might go regional, and could even turn nuclear if
the Israelis find their conventional weapons are not up to the job of knocking out their opponents. Ankara has much to lose from
war and everything to gain from nurturing regional trade agreements and building political stability. Turkey has the 16th largest
economy in the world and seventh largest in Europe.
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AT: JAPANESE ECONOMY
Japan’s economy is resilient – no external shocks
New York Times, 08 (“Bank Chief Says Japan’s Economy Resilient,” The New York Times, February 22, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22rtyen-web.html)
He said there was no change to the bank’s basic monetary policy stance, which is to adjust rates by closely examining upside and
downside risks. Market adjustments amid repricing of risks would take time, making it unavoidable for banks to incur losses, Mr.
Fukui said. At a financial committee in parliament’s lower house, Mr. Fukui said that Japan’s economy had become more resilient to
external shocks, but that “downside risks to the global economy are heightening and their impact on Japan’s economy remains
uncertain. “We will fully examine not just our main economic scenario” but the risks to the country in guiding monetary policy, said
Mr. Fukui, whose term expires next month. The Bank of Japan has long said it will raise rates gradually, as its current policy rate of
0.5 percent is so low it could lead to overheating in the economy in the long term. But shaky global markets, concern over slowing
American growth and growing pessimism over Japan’s economic outlook have kept the bank from raising rates for a year. A recovery
in share prices since late January has led investors to cut back expectations of a rate cut this year. Mr. Fukui said Japan’s growth was
slowing partly because of a slump in domestic housing investment. But it has become more resilient to external shocks than in the past
and a positive cycle of output, incomes and spending remains intact, he said. “It is highly likely that the Japanese economy will
continue to expand moderately,” he said.
Japanese economy will stay high --- capital investment and strong exports sustain recovery
Mochizuki, 10 --- Dow Jones reporter and economic writer (Takashi Mochizuki, “Update: Japan Lifts Economic View as ExportDriven Recovery Continues,” The Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100618702784.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines)
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Japanese government Friday upgraded its assessment of the economy, saying it "has been picking up" as a
result of recovering capital investment and strong exports. The government also said in its monthly economic report for June that "the
foundation for a self-sustaining recovery is being laid." It was the first time for the government to raise its economic view since
March. Last month, it said the economy was picking up but lacks autonomous growth factors. "The gradual economic recovery trend
is intact," Economy Minister Satoshi Arai said at a press conference after the release of the monthly economic report. "A selfsustaining recovery is coming into sight." Steady overseas demand for Japanese exports and rebounding corporate capital spending
helped the economy grow at a 5.0% annualized pace in the first quarter. New Prime Minister Naoto Kan has called for policies to
encourage strong economic growth and fiscal health in the world's second largest economy. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan,
which Kan leads, aims for average real growth of over 2% in the decade ahead.
Japanese economy is improving and resilient
Paul Danis (CFO of Lehman Brothers) 2008: US Housing Market Crunching Banks, Earnings and Economy. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5737.html
“The outperformance of Japanese stocks over the past few months looks set to continue, believes Paul Danis, equity strategist at
Lehman Brothers.
“‘After strongly underperforming from early 2006 to March this year, Japan has outperformed the global equity market by 14% in
dollar terms and 24% in local currency terms since mid-March,' he says. ‘We think that the rally has legs.'
“Mr Danis notes that the total cash yield in Japan has bucked the global trend and kept rising as net stock buybacks have increased, in
contrast to the US and UK. ‘We view this development as supportive for two reasons. First, it reduces equity supply. Second, it is a
vote of confidence from the Japanese corporate sector.'
“Mr Danis also says that while the economic backdrop in Japan is far from great, he expects growth to be strong relative to the rest of
the world. ‘Some key Japanese economic indicators are showing resilience, and there are continued signs that Japan's economy is
exiting a deflationary period.'
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AT: JAPANESE NATIONALISM
Nationalism doesn’t kill the alliance or cause rearm
The Washington Quarterly, 2006 ("Japan’s Goldilocks Strategy", Autumn,
http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:toRz7MYAMW8J:web.mit.edu/polisci/research/samuels/Japan%27s
%2520Goldilocks%2520Strategy.pdf+Japan+soft+power+alternative+to+military&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=78
&gl=us)
A third choice, the one preferred by the middle-power internationalists, would be to achieve prestige by increasing prosperity.
Japan’s exposure to some of the more difficult vicissitudes of world politics would be reduced but only if some of the more
ambitious assaults on the Yoshida Doctrine were reversed. Japan would once again eschew the military shield in favor of the
mercantile sword. It would bulk up the country’s considerable soft power in a concerted effort to knit East Asia together without
generating new threats or becoming excessively vulnerable. The Asianists in this group would aggressively embrace exclusive
regional economic institutions to reduce Japan’s reliance on the U.S. market. They would not abrogate the military alliance but
would resist U.S. exhortations for Japan to expand its roles and missions. open, regional economic institutions as a means to
reduce the likelihood of abandonment by the United States and would seek to maintain the United States’ protective embrace as
cheaply and for as long as possible. The final, least likely choice would be to achieve autonomy through prosperity. This is the
choice of pacifists, many of whom today are active in civil society through nongovernmental organizations that are not affiliated
with traditional political parties. Like the mercantile realists, they would reduce Japan’s military posture, possibly even eliminate
it. Unlike the mercantile realists, they would reject the alliance as dangerously entangling. They would eschew hard power for soft
power, campaign to establish Northeast Asia as a nuclear-free zone, expand the defensive-defense concept to the region as a
whole, negotiate a regional missile-control regime, and rely on the Asian Regional Forum of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) for security. 19 Their manifest problem is that the Japanese public is unmoved by their prescriptions. In March
2003, when millions took to the streets in Rome, London, and New York City to protest the U.S. invasion of Iraq, only several
thousand rallied in Tokyo’s Hibiya Park. 20 Pacifist ideas about prosperity and autonomy seem relics of an earlier, more idealistic
time when Japan could not imagine, much less openly plan for, military contingencies.
Japanese nationalism isn’t militaristic
Varma 7 [Lalima, is a Professor in the Japanese studies programme of the Centre for East Asian Studies, Japanese Nationalism:
Response to Changing Regional and International Environment, CHINA REPORT 43 : 1 (2007): 57–68]
Just as power has been described as ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power, similarly nationalism can be described as ‘hard’ and ‘soft’. Countries
like the US are considered ‘hard’ powers since they possess both economic and military might whereas Japan has been referred to
as a ‘soft’ power since it is only an economic might and is a major source of ODA and FDI to developing countries, but has no
military prowess. Providing economic and technical assistance is not sufficient to acquire a prominent role in international affairs.
It is also not always an effective tool to mend or strengthen ties with countries as is evident in the case of Japan’s relations with
China. Japanese nationalism which prevailed during the pre-War period can be referred to as ‘hard’ since it was aggressive,
militaristic, and the Japanese people were not only proud of their traditions, culture and the purity of their race but also believed
that they were superior and destined to rule over the Asians. However, the kind of nationalism that is emerging in Japan since the
last one decade in particular is ‘soft’ because it does not seem to nurture the ambition of unilaterally attacking any country or
imposing its culture on other countries. The Nationalism emerging in Japan is basically geared towards seeing that Japan occupies
an important place in the world community which is commensurate with the status of the world’s second largest economy and a
major contributor to international organisations such as the UN, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Restoring pride
in Japanese traditions and virtue is the main goal, which to a great extent was responsible for Japan’s economic success story.
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AT: JAPANESE REARM
1. No chance Japan will go nuclear—too many things prevent it
Yokota 2009 (Takashi, Newsweek Journalist, “The N Word; Why Japan won't go nuclear.”, Newsweek, June 22, 2009, Lexis, Lin)
Yet this is all just rhetoric. For one thing, despite North Korea's threats and China's growing military and political power, the Japanese people
remain dead set against building nuclear weapons. Polls conducted over the past three years show that less than 20 percent of the public currently
says it favors possessing such a deterrent. For another, Japan--a crowded island nation--lacks the space to test a bomb. Japan has large
stockpiles of plutonium for its nuclear-energy industry. But plutonium-type bombs require physical testing to verify their efficacy.
(Uranium bombs are considerably simpler and so may not need physical testing, but Japan doesn't have the weapons-grade uranium to make such a device.) While some
experts argue that Japan could test a plutonium weapon by detonating it underground, others--including former defense chief Shigeru Ishiba--insist that there is
simply nowhere to do so in such a densely populated nation. Simulations would not be sufficient; those only work after at least one
actual test. Japan, moreover, now occupies the nuke-free high ground and would risk losing its innocence if it went nuclear. According to
an internal 1995 study by Japan's defense establishment, reversing the country's no-nukes policy would trigger the collapse of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, as the withdrawal of the world's only nuclear victim could fatally undermine confidence in the system.
Such a move would also severely damage relations with Washington--Tokyo's most important ally--and the alarm in Beijing and Seoul could set off a
nuclear race across East Asia. Japan would get the blame. The consequences for Japan's energy supplies and economy could be equally
catastrophic. If Japan broke out of the NPT, the countries that now supply it with nuclear fuel, including Canada, Australia and the United States,
would surely hold back their shipments, which are currently conditioned on the fuel's peaceful use. That would be a nightmare for Japan, which
relies on nuclear energy for nearly a third of its electricity. There's one other roadblock to consider: Japan's top nuclear hawks have seen their
power weaken considerably in recent years. Abe lost most of his clout after abruptly resigning as prime minister two years ago. In February, Nakagawa
resigned as finance minister in disgrace after appearing drunk at a news conference. And Aso is practically a lame duck these days, with little room for bold moves. Of
course, the political environment may change if North Korea continues to act belligerently or if China proves to be a real threat, as
Japanese hawks fear. But even then, most Japanese experts believe that their country would stop short of building a bomb of its own.
At most, it might temporarily allow the United States to base nukes on Japanese territory. Another option would be to develop the means to stage a conventional strike
against North Korea's launchpads. But even the strike plan won't become reality anytime soon, as senior lawmakers and experts say current proposals are "amateurish"
and poorly thought out. And any revision of the non-nuke policy would be a much greater stretch, given the weakness of the hawkish wing of the ruling LDP. There
are still many good reasons to try to rein in North Korea's nuclear program, and its attempts to build missiles that could deliver those
weapons to the U.S. and Japan. But the risk that Japan will go nuclear is not one of them.
2. No risk of your aggression arguments – Japan would opt for a limited re-arm
Carpenter (Ted Galen Carpenter, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) 1995
( November 1“Paternalism And Dependence: The U.S.-Japanese Security Relationship” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-244.html)
Moreover, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Japan can probably protect its security interests without a massive rearmament effort. A
modest increase in military spending, say to 1.5 percent of GDP, might well be sufficient--and only the most paranoid would be alarmed by
a buildup of that magnitude.(39) Such an increase would produce decidedly more potent air and naval capabilities sufficient for a more credible, wide-ranging
Japanese security role. But it would hardly be enough for a new wave of imperialism--especially if Japan was careful not to greatly expand
its ground forces. Without a potential army of occupation, Tokyo would clearly lack the ability to subjugate its neighbors, and the existing
ground Self-Defense Force, some 150,000 active duty personnel, is obviously far from being such a force. The most worrisome development
would be a decision by Tokyo to acquire nuclear weapons. That possibility cannot be ruled out in the long term--especially if North Korea or other aggressive or
unstable regimes develop nuclear arsenals--but it is not inevitable. The Japanese public has a pronounced dislike of nuclear weapons, and the memories of Hiroshima
and Nagasaki are not likely to fade soon. In addition, given the technological sophistication that Japan can bring to bear on the development of its military forces, Tokyo
might conclude that an arsenal of precision-guided weapons, together with appropriate aircraft and missile delivery systems (and comprehensive air and missile
defenses), would be sufficient to counter the nuclear arsenals of its neighbors. As the Persian Gulf War demonstrated, precision-guided conventional weapons can be
extremely effective.
3. No chance for a Japanese rearm—they just adopted a non-proliferation resolution
BBC 2009 (BBC, British broadcasting corporation that provides extensive media coverage, it is the world’s largest broadcaster,
“Japanese parliament adopts non-proliferation resolution”, BBC, June 16, 2009, Lexis, Lin)
Prompted by US President Barack Obama's call in April for a nuclear-free world and then by North Korea's May 25 nuclear test, the resolution says Japan, as the only country
attacked by atomic bombs, "has the responsibility of spearheading the campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons." It warns that "such
threats as development of not just nuclear weapons, but also missiles that can carry nuclear bombs, outflows of nuclear materials and
nuclear technologies, and nuclear proliferation are rather increasing even in this post-Cold War era." Against this backdrop, Japan
should "put forth efforts on nuclear arms reduction and non-proliferation, and work proactively towards establishing an effective
inspection system," it says. The resolution was proposed by the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan after President Obama, in his speech in Prague on April 5, pledged that the
United States will take "concrete steps" to help realize a nuclear-free world. As for North Korea's second nuclear test last month, it says the UN Security Council presented "steadfast refusal"
by adopting Resolution 1874 to impose a broad range of additional sanctions. Taking these opportunities, the
Japanese government "should strive to develop the drive
for eliminating nuclear arms, particularly regional responses on the matter including the nuclear issue of North Korea, into a global
trend," it says. The House of Councillors is expected to endorse a similar resolution during a plenary session Wednesday. This is not the first time the Japanese parliament has adopted a
resolution seeking government efforts towards nuclear abolition, as it did so, for example, in 1982 before a special UN disarmament conference.
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AT: JAPANESE SOFT POWER
Japan will inevitably lose soft power- structural problems prevent retention of power
Yoel Sano, Asia Times, ‘The Rising Sun slowly sets,” Apr 27, 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/HD27Dh01.html
As Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi celebrates his fifth anniversary in office, there is a general feeling that Japan is finally
recovering from more than a decade of intermittent recession. While Japan may indeed experience faster economic growth over
the coming years, the country's myriad structural problems - especially in economic and demographic terms - suggest that its
global influence will wane substantially over the next few decades. None of this portends disaster for Japan. Rather, the country
will gradually be eclipsed by other newly ascendant nations, China and India among them. Moreover, it will be impossible for
Japanese politicians to reverse this decline, since most of the solutions would be unacceptable to the public and to Japan's
neighbors.
Lack of media outlets, universal language, and restrictive immigration and academic policies check soft power
Peng 7 (Peng Er, East Asia, vol. 24, Columbia U.)
Other limits to Japan’s “soft power” include the lack of a CNN or BBC-like institution to project its voice globally, the reluctance
of its universities to hire foreign faculty members beyond language teachers, the relatively closed nature of its society to foreign
immigrants to maintain ethnic homogeneity and social order, and the fact that Japanese is not a global language. The best students
in Asia would head toward the American Ivy League and Britain’s Oxbridge but not necessarily the Universities of Tokyo,
Waseda and Keio.
Lack of values-based foreign policy prevents soft power
Peng 7 (Peng Er, East Asia, vol. 24, Columbia U.)
Moreover, Japan does not represent any universal values and ideals while certain Western nations, especially the US, champion
human rights and democracy. Even though Tokyo recently adopted the rhetoric of democracy and human rights, other Asians do
not necessarily view Japan as the paragon of these values given its poor treatment of ethnic minorities (Japan-born Koreans and the
Burakumins) and memories of wartime atrocities among the Chinese and Koreans.
Japanese soft power will stay high --- culturally and economically resilient
Nye, 05 – distinguished expert on soft power and professor at Harvard (Joseph S. Nye, “Soft Power Matters in Asia,” Belfer Center,
December 5, 2005, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1486/soft_power_matters_in_asia.html)
Asia's resurgence began with Japan's economic success. By the end of the century, Japan's remarkable performance not only made the
Japanese wealthy, but also enhanced the country's soft power. As the first non-Western country that drew even with the West in
modernity while showing that it is possible to maintain a unique culture, Japan has more potential soft-power resources than any other
Asian country. Today Japan ranks first in the world in the number of patents, third in expenditure on research and development as a
share of GDP, second in book sales and music sales, and highest for life expectancy. It is home to three of the top 25 multinational
brand names (Toyota, Honda, and Sony). The decade-long economic slowdown of the 1990s tarnished Japan's reputation, but it did
not erase Japan's soft-power resources. Japan's global cultural influence grew in areas ranging from fashion, food and pop music to
consumer electronics, architecture and art. Japanese manufacturers rule the roost in home video games. Pokemon cartoons are
broadcast in 65 countries, and Japanese animation is a huge hit with filmmakers and teenagers everywhere. In short, Japan's popular
culture was still producing potential soft-power resources even after its economy slowed down. Now, with signs of a reviving
economy, Japan's soft power may increase even more. But there are limits. Unlike Germany, which repudiated its past aggression and
reconciled with its neighbors in the framework of the European Union, Japan has never come to terms with its record in the 1930s and
1940s. The residual suspicion that lingers in countries like China and Korea sets limits on Japan's appeal that are reinforced every time
the Japanese prime minister visits Yasukuni Shrine.
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AT: JAPANESE-SOUTH KOREAN RELATIONS
Japan-South Korea relations will stay strong – deeply related and interconnected
Pan, 05 – staff writer on the Council on Foreign Relations (Esther Pan, “Japan’s Relationship with South Korea,” Council on Foreign
Relations, October 27, 2005, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9108/japans_relationship_with_south_korea.html) Experts say the leaders
of both countries, in calmer moments, know they’re deeply interrelated on many levels and must depend on each other. Their societies
have become deeply connected: Japan and South Korea jointly hosted the successful 2002 World Cup, and Korean culture is currently
a huge hit in Japan. A South Korean soap opera, Winter Sonata, is wildly popular in Japan. The show’s star Bae Yong Jun has become
a heartthrob to millions of Japanese women, who make pilgrimages to sites in South Korea where the show is filmed. 2005 was
designated the Korea-Japan Friendship Year to mark forty years of diplomatic relations. While it’s been a bit rocky so far, the overall
picture is still good, experts say. “Relations are not as bad as they appear from the outside,” Armstrong says. “Much of the protest is
for domestic consumption.” Even the hubbub over the Yasukuni shrine will blow over, Kang predicts. “The shrine issue is diplomatic
squabbling,” he says. “It’s very low on the scale of conflicts.”
Current governments represent a new era in Japan-South Korea relations
Jee-Ho, 09 – JoongAng Daily writer and Asian correspondent (Yoo Jee-Ho, “Korea Hopes for New Era in Japan Relations,”
JoongAng Daily, September 1, 2009, http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2909498)
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak yesterday said he hoped for a new era in South Korea-Japan relations in a congratulatory call
to Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan that ousted the Liberal Democratic Party in a landslide election
victory on Sunday.According to Blue House spokeswoman Kim Eun-hye, Lee noted Hatoyama’s “politics of friendship” and said the
two close neighbors would enter a new phase in relations. In response, Hatoyama said he believed he and Lee could realize a
progressive relationship between the two countries because “we’re both able to view history correctly.” Lee said in return that the
historical issues between the two countries “are quite difficult” to resolve, but as long as the two can share a proper sense of history,
“We can move toward the future hand in hand.” Hatoyama said Lee was the first head of state to contact him after his victory. In June,
Hatoyama chose South Korea as his first destination for an overseas trip after taking over the DPJ leadership the previous month.
South Korean officials yesterday expressed cautious optimism that the change of leadership in Japan would help improve Korea-Japan
relations, while academics said they don’t foresee major changes in the diplomatic stances of the two countries. In Sunday’s landslide
election victory, the Democratic Party of Japan upended the Liberal Democratic Party, which had ruled Japan for all but 11 months
since 1955. In light of the DPJ’s win, South Korean government officials offered guarded hopes about the chances for improved
relations between South Korea and Japan. An official at the Blue House said late Sunday, as the exit polls projected a victory for the
DPJ, the results of the election were a “reflection of the Japanese people’s desire for change and reform.” He added, “We hope this
will be an opportunity to take South Korea-Japan relations to another level.” Another Blue House official pointed out that Hatoyama,
leader of the DPJ and the likely successor to Taro Aso as the next prime minister, has repeatedly highlighted the importance of Japan’s
relations with South Korea. The Foreign Ministry in Seoul, on the other hand, refrained from predicting major changes to South
Korea’s policy toward Japan, or to South Korea-Japan relations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young said it is premature to
predict where Seoul-Tokyo relations will go from here. “Rather than comment on the issue in the immediate aftermath of the election,
we will offer our view after the new Japanese government is inaugurated,” Moon said. “But we are aware that the Democratic Party of
Japan has emphasized Japan’s ties with South Korea.”
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AT: KOREAN REUNIFICATION
1. The United Korean military will be defense based instead of war based, and will concentrate on solving internal instability
Derek J. Mitchell (a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS) 2002: A Blueprint for U.S. Policy toward a Unified
Korea. http://www.twq.com/03winter/docs/03winter_mitchell.pdf
One of the first acts of a unified Korean state will be to reassess its longterm security strategy and orientation carefully. The Korean
military will likely move toward a defense-oriented, crisis-management strategy and away from a war-fighting posture. Korea will be
preoccupied for some time with internal instability as South Korean authorities focus on decommissioning the DPRK military and
integrating its personnel productively into popular Korean society. The ROK military will need to safeguard and account for residual
DPRK military equipment and material, particularly any weapons of mass destruction and the delivery systems or laboratories
associated with them.
2. Unified Korea will have no interest in WMD – fears over regional arms race
Derek J. Mitchell (a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS) 2002: A Blueprint for U.S. Policy toward a Unified
Korea. http://www.twq.com/03winter/docs/03winter_mitchell.pdf
A unified Korea would be expected to have no interest in WMD development or deployment as such an act would likely spur a
regional arms race and create tensions with the international community, especially the United States, over nonproliferation. This
calculation will ultimately depend on the state of the regional security environment at the time of unification, including the status of
Korea’s alliance with the United States as well as its confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, Korea’s relationship with Russia and
China, and whether or not Japan develops nuclear weapons.
3. Unified U.S. Korean relations will remain strong – key to its economic development and regional security
Derek J. Mitchell (a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS) 2002: A Blueprint for U.S. Policy toward a Unified
Korea. http://www.twq.com/03winter/docs/03winter_mitchell.pdf
Arguably, Korea’s interest will continue to lie in the retention of its alliance with the United States following unification. Despite
some frictions, the alliance has served to help preserve Korea’s essential freedom of action and to facilitate its historic political and
economic development over many decades. Maintaining an alliance with the United States will also help preserve the U.S.-led,
alliance-based security structure in East Asia that has served as a stabilizing force in the region, hedged against the rise of an
aggressive regional power, and protected Korea from becoming the political if not military battleground upon which the major Asian
powers have historically sought regional advantage. Indeed, a unified Korea will need the stability and reassurance engendered by its
alliance with the United States more than ever during the many years of transition following unification, particularly under collapse or
war scenarios.
4. Korea will continue to host U.S. military forces on the peninsula – ensures security
Derek J. Mitchell (a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS) 2002: A Blueprint for U.S. Policy toward a Unified
Korea. http://www.twq.com/03winter/docs/03winter_mitchell.pdf
A unified Korea also will arguably have a substantial interest in accepting a U.S. military presence on the peninsula following
unification. This presence would serve as a key component of continued alliance relations and the overall U.S. regional military
presence to preserve stability throughout East Asia. Korea’s continued hosting of U.S. forces would sustain the special relationship
between the governments and armed forces of both sides, facilitate their coordination of regional strategy, and continue to serve as a
deterrent to others seeking advantage on the peninsula.
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AT: KUWAITI ECONOMY
Kuwait economy not key to world- dependent on global trends
Jamieson 6/11 [Lee, Staff Writer, Arabian Business.com, http://www.arabianbusiness.com/590034-taking-care-of-business] KLS
However, recent economic turbulence has made Kuwait acutely aware of how reliant it is on the global economic system. The
Kuwait Stock Exchange experienced a loss of US $10 billion early last year, high inflation is an ongoing concern and the number
of expatriate workers, which make up 50% of its overall population, has dropped for the second year in a row.
Kuwaiti economy resilient – oil
Oxford Economic Country Briefings 8 (1/18/8, “Kuwait,” Oxford Economic Country Briefings [Magazine] ) JPG
Kuwait has a relatively undiversified economy, dominated by the oil industry and government sector, with oil accounting for about
half of GDP, 95% of export revenues and around 80% of government revenues. During the 1970s, the economy grew strongly on the back of
rapidly rising oil prices, but in the 1980s it was hit by a securities market crash and sharply lower oil prices, followed up by the 1990 Iraq invasion. In exile during
the Iraqi occupation, the government drew down over half of its US$1 OObn in overseas investments to help pay for reconstruction. The economy has
enjoyed a period of prosperity since the US-led invasion of Iraq, with many companies in Iraq establishing offices in Kuwait and
procuring goods through Kuwaiti companies, with banking and construction having grown particularly strongly. Sharply higher oil
prices in the last few years have also given the economy another big boost, with real GDP growth jumping to over 15% in 2003 and averaging about 10% in 200405. The oil sector has led the way, climbing to almost 60% of GDP in 2005, but non-oil sectors, in particular services, have also been boosted by the impact of
booming oil revenues. However, the pace of economic reform has been slow, hampering the growth of private sector involvement in the economy. * Crude oil
reserves are officially said to be almost 10Obn barrels, or 8% of world reserves, making Kuwait a key player within OPEC and world oil
markets. The Saudi-Kuwaiti neutral zone, shared by the two countries, holds an additional 5bn barrels, lifting Kuwait's total oil reserves to over 100bn barrels,
enough for over 100 years of production at the 2005 level of around 2.5m b/d. Under the US$7bn Project Kuwait, the government is hoping it will reach
3.0m b/d by 2008 and 4m b/d by 2012, but these plans are thought unlikely to be met. And there have also been industry reports that proven oil reserves are only
about half of the officially quoted level, which in turn would cast doubt over the sustainability of any sharp increase in production. * As a result of booming
oil revenues, the country's traditional balance of payments surpluses have been swollen further in recent years, with the current
account surplus rising to over US$50bn in 2006, equal to about 50% of GDP. These surpluses have enabled the government to rebuild its
external assets, which were heavily depleted after the Iraq invasion but are now thought to be approaching the US$100bn level again. As well as rising external
surpluses, which have helped to support the dinar (KWD, pegged to the US$ from January 2003 to May 2007 and now to a trade- and investment-weighted basket
of currencies), the government has also posted rising budget surpluses, estimated at 30% of GDP in 2005 and 2006. These have enabled total gross debt to be
brought down to 13% of GDP at end-2005, and the acquisition of foreign assets has made Kuwait one of the world's largest net external
creditors. Along with the other states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Kuwait is planning to form a currency union by 2010, but doubts about the
feasibility of this plan have surfaced in the past year, especially following the May 2007 KWD revaluation.
Kuwait econ resilient- banking, liquidity, efficiency
Thabet 6/15 [Mokhtar, Staff Writer, 2010 Global Arab Network
http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/201006156218/Finance/kuwait-negative-banking-outlook-weak-diversification-oilreliance.html] KLS
Thanks to a comfortable banking sector’s aggregate equity to total assets and a good liquidity system supported by the availability
of ample government funding, Kuwaiti banks are able to weather significant pressure. Nonetheless, despite some improvement,
banks’ risk management practices need further enhancement, as shown by the significant portfolio concentrations on the stressed
Kuwaiti investment company and real estate and construction sectors. Unlike excellent profitability undergone by Kuwaiti banks
before the financial crisis (benefiting from the booming local and regional economies), Moody’s expects the yearend 2009 results
to show a significant increase in system NPLs due to increased provisioning charges and adversely affecting returns. Elevated
provisioning charges are likely to continue to affect some banks’ profits throughout 2010. Moody’s expects banks with higher
concentrations in their loan books or weaker credit standards to report weaker results than those of their peers. The Central Bank of
Kuwait (CBK) relaxing its rule on the loans to deposits ratio did not impede a loan growth slowdown since the crisis started.
Eventually, the efficiency of Kuwaiti banks in terms of cost-to-income ratios is excellent in global terms, although some
deterioration in efficiency ratios as a result of the weakened operating conditions could exert pressure on profits.
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AT: LANGUAGE (K)
Language isn’t inherently violent – violence exists independent of it
Apressyan, 98, Ruben G. Chair – Department of Ethics – Institute of Philosophy in Moscow, Director – Research and Education
Center for the Ethics of Nonviolence, and Professor of Moral Philosophy – Moscow Lomonosov State University, Peace Review, v.
10 i. 4, December,
There is another aspect, however. Language per se is not violent; although, it easily may become an object of violence. This
defenselessness against violence, means that violence exists beyond language. Speech is a prerogative of reason: violence is
speechless. This means that violence has no need of language . With the help of language, violence may mark itself, give itself a kind of justification,
allude to itself, or hide itself in various forms of reserve and awesomeness. Potential violence may resolve into speech or disembodied words. But
in turn, words themselves, or words inserted into certain contexts or articulated with a certain intonation may appear as potentially
violent. Thus language becomes a means of violence which "keeps silence."
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AT: LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIES
Latin American economies resilient – IMF report and this recession proves
Mary Swire 2008: Latin America and the Caribbean Region Resilient So Far, But Risks Ahead. http://www.taxnews.com/archive/story/Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean_Region_Resilient_So_Far_But_Risks_Ahead_xxxx30648.html
Economies in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region have generally held up well so far in the face of recent global financial
strains, according to the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, released late last week.
Many countries in the region are benefiting from stronger fiscal and external positions and improved credibility of policy frameworks,
according to Anoop Singh, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department.
The IMF observed that stresses in US financial markets have had less impact on the region's financial markets and external funding
than in past episodes of global financial disruptions.
Although external funding conditions have tightened, especially for the LAC corporate sector, this has been by less than in the past,
and also less than in some other emerging markets. However, Mr Singh noted that a deteriorating global environment will weaken
fiscal and external positions, especially because public spending continues to be procyclical in many countries.
Mr Singh added that the prospects for a number of countries have been strongly supported by still-strong commodity prices.
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AT: LNG EXPLOSION 1/2
1. Their impact of LNG explosion is false – explosion presents less threat than fire, an impact that has been contained.
Parfomak 03 (Paul W., Specialist in Science and Technology , Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Infrastructure Security: Background and Issues for Congress,
Congressional Research Service - Library of Congress. September 9, 2003. (Acrobat PDF file, 25 pgs, 228 kb))
The potential hazard from terror attacks on LNG tankers continues to be debated among experts. One recent study of tankers serving the Everett LNG terminal assessed
the impact of 1) a hand-held missile attack on the external hull, and 2) a bomb attack from a small boat next to the hull (similar to the Limberg attack). The study found
that “loss of containment may occur through shock mechanisms caused by small amounts of explosive.”59 The study concluded that “a deliberate attack on an LNG
carrier can result in a ... threat to both the ship, its crew and members of the public.”60 However, the study also found the risk of a public catastrophe to
be small. For example, the study found that the LNG pool hazard would be less than that for a gasoline or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pool.61 The study also
concluded that a vaporized LNG explosion would be unlikely because a missile or bomb presents multiple ignition sources. Other experts have
calculated that an LNG fire under “worst case” conditions could be much more hazardous to waterfront facilities.63 Impact estimates for LNG
tanker attacks are largely based on engineering models, however, each with its own input assumptions–so it is difficult to assert definitively
how dangerous a real attack would be.
2. LNG explosion won’t create a huge plume or massive deaths
Melhem et al 06 – PHD Professor of Structural Engineering (Dr. G. A. Melhem, Dr. A. S. Kalelkar, Dr. S. Saraf “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the
Facts from the Myths” updated 2006, http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf)
Myth No. 3 An LNG tanker accident could cause the release of all five tanks LNG content. This will create a plume that would extend 30
miles. Upon delayed ignition thousands of people within the plume would be instantly killed. Fact LNG is not flammable until it is vaporized, mixed in the right proportions with
air, and then ignited. The measured minimum ignition energy of LNG vapors is 0.29 mJ (milli-Joules). Flammable LNG vapors are easily ignited by machinery, cigarettes, and static electricity. Static electricity discharged when one walks on a
carpet or brushes his/her hair is 10 mJ, or 35 times the amount required to ignite LNG vapors. A large LNG vapor cloud cannot travel far into developed areas without igniting and
burning back to the source. A scenario describing LNG vapor clouds impacting entire cities is “pure fiction”. The vapor cloud and
subsequent pool fire will have a potentially significant impact on the immediate release area and downwind to the first ignition source.
This significantly limits the extent of impact. It is not realistic to imagine that all five tanks on an LNG tanker can be instantaneously released. To instantaneously remove the double hulled side
of an LNG ship would require an enormous amount of explosive. The explosive used to breach the hull would cause more damage to the surroundings than the subsequent LNG spill and pool fire. To mount such an attack on
an LNG ship would require the equivalent of a full-scale military operation, not a clandestine terrorist operation. Since the early 1980s, the scientific community clearly demonstrated that a Gaussian dispersion model (the
same model used to estimate the 30 mile dispersion distance) is not appropriate for LNG vapor dispersion. Dispersion estimates using a proper heavy gas model are reported in the recent Sandia study. The potential to realize
major injuries and significant damage to property resulting from an intentional breach scenario extends less than ½ mile from the spill origin.
3. An LNG explosion would do minimal damage – this specifically indicts their impact evidence
Lloyd's Register, 4 – Leading participants in the safety and verification of LNG facilities around the world (“Statement on LNG risks from Lloyd's Register North
America, Inc.” 9-23-2004, http://www.lr.org/News+and+Events/News+Archive/2004/Statement+on+LNG+risks+from+Lloyds+Register+North+America+Inc.htm) AMK
LNG. The real risks In the US, regulators and other interested parties have identified as key concerns the possibility of a terrorist attack involving an LNG terminal or an LNG carrier, and the
consequences for the surrounding population and infrastructure. Global terrorism is certainly a major threat and all reasonable measures should and must be taken to mitigate the risks and
consequences of any actions, however, commentators
and observers are incorrect if they believe that a terrorist attack on an LNG carrier would
have the impact of a nuclear explosion. There are several technical reasons which bear this out: 1. LNG is transported globally in insulated
tanks on specialised ships. These tanks provide four physical barriers and two layers of insulation between the LNG and the outside
environment. Further, the separation between the inner and outer hulls of an LNG carrier is typically over two meters. These two factors
combined mean that LNG cargo carried at sea has a very high in-built level of protection from external blast sources. 2. In the event of an
attack, even if a one-meter hole were to be formed in the inner hull, the resultant holes in the primary containment barrier would be significantly smaller due to the increased separation distance
from the blast source combined with the pressure absorption properties of the secondary containment barrier and insulation materials. 3. It
is unrealistic to imagine that the
entire cargo of any ship can be instantaneously released. To mount an attack on an LNG carrier that would result in the instantaneous
release of all of its cargo would require the equivalent of a full scale military operation, not a clandestine terrorist operation like those
carried out against the USS Cole and the Limburg. 4. The idea that LNG carriers are potential nuclear devices is erroneous. There is a lot of energy in
LNG and natural gas, as in any hydrocarbon. However, the 'nuclear explosion' statement describes the total energy an LNG carrier contains, not the rate at which the energy
would be released in an incident. For example, a lump of coal contains lots of energy, but when set on fire, its energy doesn't all come out instantly like a bomb. Instead, the coal burns over a
period of time releasing its energy as it goes. Similarly, LNG
carriers contain large quantities of energy, but the energy can only be released slowly in
the event of a spill or a fire. 5. An LNG spill in open air will not result in a bomb-like explosion. This has been consistently demonstrated in
experiments. Not everything that is ignited explodes like a bomb . For example, when a match is lit, it burns but does not explode. Similarly, the natural gas vapour that
could result from an LNG carrier spill also falls under the category of substances that will burn but not explode like a bomb. Reason and caution Paul Huber, Director of LRNA, says: "There
are risks associated with the transport and storage of LNG, as there are with any hydrocarbon energy source, and these are precisely the reasons that the LNG industry operates with extensive
The effectiveness of these regulations is apparent in the LNG
shipping sector, which has an unblemished safety record spanning 40 years - a track record which is unrivalled by any other maritime
sector and most land-based industries. It should also be remembered that LNG itself is one of the cleanest-burning and most environmentally
friendly energy sources currently available on a global scale. "While the shadow of terrorism hangs over us, we have to do as much as we can to protect ourselves and
our borders, but it is misleading to state, as some have, that an attack on an LNG carrier would be similar to a nuclear event. It is difficult
for us to know the rationale behind the assertion contained in the speech to the Houston Forum, but it is clear that it is not supported
by fact.
international and national regulations which govern the safety of LNG transport and storage.
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AT: LNG EXPLOSION 2/2
4. All of your LNG Impacts have low probability .
ASPEN ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP, 2005 (INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS THE SAFETY
AND SECURITY RISKS OF IMPORTING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS: A COMPENDIUM , January, p 41)
The committee determined that earthquakes are the most likely events to initiate an LNG hazard rather than man-made causes, but the
likelihood that an earthquake could lead to a large release of LNG (e.g., caused by sufficient damage to a carrier or an onshore storage
tank) was unlikely to very unlikely. Other findings from the study were as follows: • The proposed terminal and the carriers serving it
are potential targets for acts of terror, but an actual attack is unlikely. • The chance of a maritime accident in San Pablo Bay and in the
vicinity of the Carquinez Strait of a severity sufficient to release LNG is unlikely. • The authority of the USCG and the measures it
applies to similar High Consequence Vessels (HCVs) in other United States LNG terminals reduces the threat from acts of terror or
sabotage substantially. • A fireball presents the worst case for radiating heat. It is very unusual for LNG to form a fireball when
released and ignited, because fireball formation requires the violent mixing of fuel and air prior to ignition. • LNG will not support a
boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), because it is exceedingly cold and is stored at ambient pressure in very strong
tanks. • A pool fire involving the entire contents of a storage tank, or the entire contents of a single LNG carrier cargo tank released
onto San Pablo Bay at the terminal will not cause radiant heat levels dangerous to people and homes in Vallejo, because the
circumstances leading to such a large LNG release are more likely to ignite the LNG before it reaches populated areas.
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AT: LNG TERROR
No impact—the worst case scenario kills 8,000
Kaplan, 6 – Associate Editor of the Council on Foreign Relations (Eben, “Liquefied Natural Gas: A Potential Terrorist Target?”
February 27, 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9810/) -CMM
Are LNG ships and terminals potential terrorist targets? Yes, because of LNG's explosive potential, experts say. Al-Qaeda, for example, has specifically cited LNG as a
desirable target, says Rob Knake, senior associate at Good Harbor Consulting, LLC, a homeland-security private consulting firm. Pipelines are not as attractive because
the flow of gas can quickly be cut off and an explosion easily contained. Terminals make better targets because an attack could result in a massive fire that could
potentially kill scores of people. They are also good targets because "if you take out those terminals, you could have a significant disruption [in the U.S. gas supply,]"
Knake says. But an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection
mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. The most attractive targets are the
boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold . A report, put out by Good Harbor Consulting
assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker
could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of 20,000 injuries. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case
scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks
require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so
large, in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an explosion."
Tankers aren’t terrorist targets and the impact will be limited
Melhem et al 06 – PHD Professor of Structural Engineering (Dr. G. A. Melhem, Dr. A. S. Kalelkar, Dr. S. Saraf “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the
Facts from the Myths” updated 2006, http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf)
Myth No. 2 LNG tankers and land based facilities are vulnerable to terrorism; An LNG potential disaster (explosion of an LNG tanker) is greater
today because of the threat of terrorism. The gigantic quantity of energy stored in huge cryogenic tanks is what makes LNG a desirable terrorist target. Tankers may be
physically attacked in a variety of ways to destroy their cargo or used as weapons against coastal targets. Fact As discussed earlier, LNG ships are not attractive
“mass casualties” terrorist targets. Any explosive charge used on an LNG ship will cause immediate ignition of the LNG vapors. The
subsequent LNG pool fire will have a potentially significant impact on the immediate release area only. This will significantly limit
the extent of impact. There are also new Coast Guard security regulations (33 CFR Part 105) for LNG tanker movements and terminals. In addition, IMO and the
USCG have established stringent security requirements for vessels in international and United States waters.
There are too many precautions for there to be a terrorist attack
O’Malley- Chief, Ports and Facilities Activities United States Coast Guard- 8 (Mark, “SAFETY AND SECURITY OF LIQUID
NATURAL GAS,” May 7, 2007, Lexis) –CMM
In addition to undergoing a much more rigorous and frequent examination of key operating and safety systems, LNG vessels are
subject to additional measures of security when compared to crude oil tankers, as an example. Many of the special safety and security
precautions the Coast Guard has long established for LNG vessels derived from our analysis of "conventional" navigation safety risks
such as groundings, collisions, propulsion or steering system failures. These precautions pre-dated the September 11, 2001 tragedy, and include such measures as
special vessel traffic control measures that are implemented when an LNG vessel is transiting the port or its approaches, safety zones around the vessel to prevent other
vessels from approaching nearby, escorts by patrol craft and, as local conditions warrant, coordination with other Federal, state and local transportation, law
enforcement and/or emergency management agencies to reduce the risks to, or minimize the interference from other port area infrastructure or activities. These
activities are conducted under the authority of existing port safety and security statutes, such as the Magnuson Act (50 U.S.C. 191 et. seq.) and the Ports and Waterways
Safety Act, as amended. Since September 11, 2001, additional security measures have been implemented, including the requirement that all
vessels calling in the U.S. must provide the Coast Guard with a 96-hour advance notice of arrival (increased from 24 hours advance notice pre- 9/11).
This notice includes information on the vessel's last ports of call, crew identities and cargo information. In addition, the Coast Guard now regularly boards LNG vessels at- sea, where Coast
Guard personnel conduct special "security sweeps" of the vessel and ensure it is under the control of proper authorities during its port transit. In order to protect the vessel from external attack,
LNG vessels are escorted through key port areas. These armed escorts afford protection to the nearby population centers by reducing the probability of a successful attack against an LNG
vessel. These actions are in addition to the safety and security oriented boardings previously described. Of course, one of the most important post-9/11 maritime security improvements has
been the passage of the Maritime Transportation Security Act of 2002 (MTSA). Under the authority of MTSA, the Coast Guard developed a comprehensive new body of security measures
applicable to vessels, marine facilities and maritime personnel. Our domestic maritime security regime is closely aligned with the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. The
ISPS Code, a mandatory requirement of the SOLAS Convention, was adopted at the IMO in December 2002 and came into effect on July 1st 2004. Under the ISPS Code, vessels in
international service, including LNG vessels, must have an International Ship Security Certificate (ISSC). To be issued an ISSC by its flag state, the vessel must develop and implement a
threat-scalable security plan that, among other things, establishes access control measures, security measures for cargo handling and delivery of ships stores, surveillance and monitoring,
security communications, security incident procedures, and training and drill requirements. The plan must also identify a Ship Security Officer who is responsible for ensuring compliance with
Any LNG
vessel entering Long Island Sound would be subject to strict safety and security standards. There would be a moving security zone around
the LNG carriers and a fixed safety zone around the proposed Floating, Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU). Coast Guard enforcement activities would
be based on the most current threat assessment as well as standing Coast Guard policy and procedures which account for known and unknown threats. State and
local law enforcement agencies could assist the Coast Guard with the enforcement of these safety zones. Another element of the
extensive layered security system established by MTSA is Coast Guard approved facility security plans. Implementing the facility security
the ship's security plan. The Coast Guard rigorously enforces this international requirement by evaluating security compliance as part of our ongoing port state control program.
plan for the FSRU would be Broadwater Energy's responsibility. An element of the facility security plan for the FSRU would include the employment of private
security guards to conduct on-water security patrols in the vicinity of the FSRU. Private security guards would not have the authority to enforce the fixed or moving
safety zones.
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AT: MALARIA
1. New malaria drugs will solve any outbreak because it works against resistant strains.
By Donald G. McNeil Jr. December 22, 2008 (Science and health reporter for the New York Times specializing in plagues and
pestilences. He covers diseases of the world's poor, AIDS, malaria, avian flu, SARS, mad cow disease and so on. New York Times,
“Malaria Drug May Soon Be Set for U.S. Debut”) KM
The Food and Drug Administration is expected soon to approve the first malaria drug in the United States to contain artemisinin, the
wormwood derivative from China that is the latest and much heralded cure for malaria in Africa and Asia. Although there are only
about 1,500 cases of malaria treated in the country each year — virtually all in people just back from the tropics — the approval
would also make the drug available to the military and to Americans planning to go abroad. According to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, most of those travelers returning from the tropics with malaria had been visiting relatives in Africa, India,
Haiti or Central America. About 10 percent went abroad as tourists and about 2 percent as members of the military. The drug,
Coartem, is made by the Swiss company Novartis. It combines artemether, an artemesinin derivative, with lumefantrine, a drug
developed by Chinese scientists, which does not kill parasites as quickly but lingers in the blood longer. By mopping up parasites that
artemisinin misses, lumefantrine helps prevent resistance that would defeat the drug, as happened with previous so-called miracle
cures like chloroquine. Novartis saysthe F.D.A.’s legal deadline for a decision is this Friday. On Dec. 3, an F.D.A. advisory committee
of independent experts voted 18 to 0 to endorse the drug’s effectiveness. The agency usually takes its committees’ advice. About the
expected approval, Dr. Claire Panosian, president of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, who treats malaria
cases in Los Angeles, said: “I’m thrilled. It’s a great breakthrough to have another antimalarial in the U.S.” Novartis sells Coartem
(pronounced koh-AHR-tem) to the World Health Organization and medical charities for about 80 cents per course of treatment, which
it says is the production cost. It has sold nearly 200 million treatments for use in Africa and claims they have saved 500,000 lives.
Coartem was introduced in 2001; it is approved in more than 80 countries, including 16 in Europe. Novartis had had little interest in
registering it here because the market is so small and the food and drug agency’s requirements are expensive — even when the
application fee, more than $1 million for a new drug, is waived, as it was for Coartem. Novartis came under pressure to register it here
because so much taxpayer money was being spent on it after the $1.2 billion President’s Malaria Initiative passed in 2005.
2. The United States is taking steps to solve Malaria worldwide.
Thomas Fuller. January 26, 2009. (Staff writer for the New York Times. “Spread of Malaria Feared as Drug Loses Potency.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/health/27malaria.html
To prevent a recurrence with artemisinin therapies, the United States has put aside political considerations and approved a malaria
monitoring center in military-run Myanmar, formerly Burma. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, one of the largest donors to
malaria research, is giving $14 million to the Thai and Cambodian governments to help pay for a containment program.
That program includes efforts to supply the area with mosquito nets, a screening program for everyone living in affected areas and
follow-up visits by health workers to assess the effectiveness of the drugs, said Dr. Duong Socheat, director of Cambodia’s National
Malaria Center. On the Thai side of the border, the government has “motorcycle microscopists” who take blood samples from
villagers and migrant workers, analyze them on the spot and distribute antimalaria drugs.
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EXT #1 – VACCINES SOLVE
Extremely effective vaccines being developed now – solves their short term impacts and solves long term – Malaria will not
exist in 30 years
Guy Steyner (Reporter, Lateline) July 15, 2008: Scientists one step closer to Malaria vaccine
There's been a breakthrough in the fight against the global malaria pandemic.
The parasite kills two million people each year.
Scientists from Melbourne have identified key proteins in infected blood cells. The team is now targeting the proteins in the search for
a vaccine.
GUY STEYNER, REPORTER: This scientist is feeding malaria parasites with fresh human blood.
DR ALEX MAIER, WALTER AND ELIZA HALL INSTITUTE: And they have to be looked after every 48 hours because they
multiply in the red blood cells and they basically run out of nutrients.
ALEX STEYNER: It might sound horrible, but cultivating the parasites has enabled ground breaking research on malaria, which
infects red blood cells making them sticky so the parasite can't be flushed through the spleen.
PROFESSOR ALAN COWMAN, WALTER AND ELIZA HALL INSTITUTE: We wanted to know how the parasite sticks because
that is the key thing that causes disease and the key thing that you need to target in order to treat malaria.
GUY STEYNER: After five years of painstaking research these Melbourne scientists have identified the eight proteins that make the
infected red cells adhesive.
ALAN COWMAN: We can then start to concentrate on these proteins and develop drugs that interfere with the function of these
proteins and that would stop the parasite from sticking in organs such as the brain or placenta and would therefore circulate into the
spleen and then be eaten by cells in the spleen who's function is to clear infections such as malaria.
GUY STEYNER: The discovery could lead to a vaccine.
ALEX MAIER: You have to endure a lot of frustration and false leads and when it all comes together it really, really makes you very
happy.
GUY STEYNER: It's estimated 600 million people are infected with malaria worldwide. The research team here hope their discovery
will help eradicate malaria within the next 30 years.
Vaccines solve – new vaccines will be ready by next year
Rosanne Skirble 2005: HEALTH BRIEFS 2005-1: Malaria Vaccine; Avian Flu Clues from Canine Virus; Appetite-Suppressing
Hormone Discovery. http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2005-11/2005-11-21-voa29.cfm
Scientists and health policy experts gathered in Cameroon recently to discuss ways to fight malaria, the leading cause of death among
African children. The Pan Africa Malaria Conference 2005 released findings that suggest there is progress in efforts to create a
vaccine for the mosquito-borne disease.
A study in 2004 -- in collaboration with the Mozambique Health Ministry -- indicated that the trial vaccine RTS, S-AS02 cut severe
malaria episodes in half. Eighteen months later its effectiveness had dropped as feared, but not significantly.
Vaccine inventor John Cohen told conference goers that if the findings hold up, the vaccine could save hundreds of thousands of lives.
Three million people die of malaria each year. Ninety percent of the cases are in sub-Saharan Africa.
RTS, S-AS02 is one of several malaria vaccines now in development. Dr. Cohen says the American pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmith-Kline is working on a new formulation of the vaccine, which the company hopes to field test within a year. The product could
be on the market by 2010.
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AT: MALNUTRITION
1. Can’t solve it – it’s a lifestyle choice to eat healthy
2. Infections are the root cause of malnutrition not the plan
Ulrich E. Schaible and Stefan H. E. Kaufmann. May 1, 2007. (Ulrich E. Schaible is at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine, Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Immunology Unit, London, United Kingdom. Stefan H. E. Kaufmann is at
the Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, Department of Immunology, Berlin, Germany. PLoS Medicine. “Malnutrition and
Infection: Complex Mechanisms and Global Impacts”
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040115#cor1)
Infection itself contributes to malnutrition. The relationship of malnutrition on immune suppression and infection is complicated by
the profound effects of a number of infections on nutrition itself. Examples of how infections can contribute to malnutrition are: (1)
gastrointestinal infection can lead to diarrhea; (2) HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and other chronic infections can cause cachexia and
anemia; and (3) intestinal parasites can cause anemia and nutrient deprivation [13].
Stimulation of an immune response by infection increases the demand for metabolically derived anabolic energy and associated
substrates, leading to a synergistic vicious cycle of adverse nutritional status and increased susceptibility to infection. Under
inflammatory conditions such as sepsis, mediators increase the catabolic disease state characterised by enhanced arginine use.
Furthermore, arginase is induced during infection and uses up arginine as substrate. It has been suggested that depletion of this amino
acid impairs T cell responses [14], and exceeding the body’s arginine production leads to a negative nitrogen balance [15].
3. No timeframe to the impact – malnutrition has been around for a while, and we haven’t seen any big impacts
4. Too many barriers to solve malnutrition.
The PLoS Medicine Editors Nov. 08 (Public Library of Science “Scaling Up International Food Aid: Food Delivery Alone Cannot
Solve the Malnutrition Crisis”)
Other proven malnutrition interventions must also be scaled up. For example, the Ending Child Hunger and Undernutrition Initiative,
a global partnership started by UNICEF and the World Food Programme, is calling for the global scale-up of a range of “practical
measures” [21]. These include health, hygiene, and nutrition education and promotion, micronutrient supplementation, household
water treatment, hand washing, deworming, and “situation-specific household food security interventions” [21]. National and
international development strategies and policies, together with political will and financing, are also required [22]. It will cost about
$US8 billion a year to assist 100 million families to protect their children from hunger and malnutrition [21]—and yet current donor
spending on programs to reduce undernutrition is only about $US250–$US300 million annually [23].
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AT: MEXICO COLLAPSE
1. Drug wars collapse Mexico.
The San Diego Union Tribune 7/9/00 “A special report” Lexis [ev]
Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo describes narcotics trafficking as the greatest threat to Mexico's national security. A report
produced by his own government warned that increasingly powerful drug cartels threaten Mexico's political stability and, if left
unchecked, could render Mexico ungovernable. Something close to that is already happening a mere 20 miles from downtown San
Diego, just across the border in Tijuana: Two police chiefs assassinated by drug traffickers in six years, dozens of prosecutors and
police investigators killed and a murder rate at least seven times that of San Diego. For the past decade, the Arellano Felix
Organization, the most violent drug cartel in Mexico, has waged this deadly war against the rule of law. The cartel has proved itself
stronger than the Mexican government in the Tijuana-Mexicali-Ensenada triangle that is the Arellanos' base territory. Mexican
officials estimate that the Tijuana cartel provides at least 15 percent of the entire U.S. cocaine supply, a share representing 45 tons or
more of cocaine a year. That's nearly a ton of cocaine every week shoved across our borders by the Arellano organization.
2. Rising corn prices are draining the government budget.
Prairie Pundit 4/18/08 “Half baked energy policy food for thought” Lexis [ev]
The Mexican government knows corn's price is politically sensitive. In January 2007, StrategyPage.com published the following short
commentary: "Mexican authorities are concerned that a rise in the price of tortillas will lead to civil unrest. The price of tortillas rose
10 to 14 percent in 2006. The cause: international demand for corn." Mexico planned to import "duty free" several hundred thousand
tons of corn to stabilize prices. Corn prices continue to climb, this month hitting an all-time high of six dollars a bushel, up 30 percent
since then end of 2007. Take the all-time high, however, with a dose of mathematics. The Iowa Corn Growers Association argues that
the $3.20 a bushel of 1981 would be around eight bucks today.
3. Collapse inevitable – Mexican oil running fry.
Worldpress.org 4/25/06 “Mexico: Oil Depletion and Illegal U.S. Immigration” http://www.worldpress.org/Americas/2326.cfm [ev]
Mexico's oil industry is, in large part, a direct reflection of the country's economic well-being. As those who have been
following global oil output are aware, production in Mexico has started to wane, and just might decline very rapidly. Since the
Mexican federal budget depends very heavily on oil revenues, the country may be faced with some tough times ahead, leading to
increased pressures among its citizens to migrate north into the U.S.
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EXT #1 – DRUG WARS
Drug war means collapse inevitable.
Human Events Online 11/26/07 “Drug War Allies” Lexis [ev]
It's just as clear that Mexico and the United States share an urgent national security imperative. Drug cartels threaten the rule of law in
Mexico, a country that shares an 1,800-mile border with the United States. Left unchecked, they might ultimately imperil Mexico's
political stability and economic development. And, as noted, Mexico is either the source or the trans-shipment point for 90 percent of
all narcotics entering the United States. The violence and gang warfare spawned by the drug trade have long since crossed the U.S.Mexico border right along with the tons of drugs coming from Mexico.
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AT: MEXICO DRUG WARS
Mexico will pretend to be fighting the drug cartels, but secretly prop them up
Friedman 10 chief executive of STRATFOR, a private global intelligence firm he founded in 1996
George, 4/6, “The Political Machine, Drugs and Pinata: Mexico, failed state?”
http://www.politicalmachine.com/article/379548/Drugs_and_Pinata_Mexico_failed_state
From Mexico’s point of view, interrupting the flow of drugs to the United States is not clearly in the national interest or in that
of the economic elite. Observers often dwell on the warfare between smuggling organizations in the northern borderland but rarely on
the flow of American money into Mexico. Certainly, that money could corrupt the Mexican state, but it also behaves as money does. It
is accumulated and invested, where it generates wealth and jobs. For the Mexican government to become willing to shut off this flow
of money, the violence would have to become far more geographically widespread. And given the difficulty of ending the traffic
anyway — and that many in the state security and military apparatus benefit from it — an obvious conclusion can be drawn: Namely,
it is difficult to foresee scenarios in which the Mexican government could or would stop the drug trade. Instead, Mexico will
accept both the pain and the benefits of the drug trade. Mexico’s policy is consistent: It makes every effort to appear to be
stopping the drug trade so that it will not be accused of supporting it. The government does not object to disrupting one or
more of the smuggling groups, so long as the aggregate inflow of cash does not materially decline. It demonstrates to the United
States efforts (albeit inadequate) to tackle the trade, while pointing out very real problems with its military and security apparatus and
with its officials in Mexico City. It simultaneously points to the United States as the cause of the problem, given Washington’s failure
to control demand or to reduce prices by legalization. And if massive amounts of money pour into Mexico as a result of this U.S.
failure, Mexico is not going to refuse it. The problem with the Mexican military or police is not lack of training or equipment. It is not
a lack of leadership. These may be problems, but they are only problems if they interfere with implementing Mexican national policy.
The problem is that these forces are personally unmotivated to take the risks needed to be effective because they benefit more from
being ineffective. This isn’t incompetence but a rational national policy.
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AT: MIDDLE EAST INSTABILITY
Alt cause – religion and ethnicity – multiple historical examples.
Library Index 6 [http://www.libraryindex.com/pages/2700/Poverty-Violent-Conflict-POVERTY-IN-MOST-DANGEROUSPLACES-ON-EARTH.html]
The Middle East is at the heart of some of the worst tension and violence in the world, much of it in the form of terrorism. Some of
this tension stems from ethnic and religious differences. Since the end of World War II there have been several major interstate
conflicts—including the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Iran-Iraq War, and the Gulf War of 1991—civil wars in Jordan and Lebanon,
and continuing tensions between various factions throughout the region. The Arab-Israeli conflict alone has erupted into war six
times since 1948. Iraq has been involved in six skirmishes, including the ongoing war with the U.S.-led coalition that began in
2003. Afghanistan is not always included as a Middle Eastern country, but its history, language, and culture are closely linked to
those of Iran, so the U.S. invasion there, which began in late 2001, may also be considered a Middle Eastern conflict.
Alt cause – water is the main concern for Middle East conflict.
Darwish 3 [Adel, BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2949768.stm]
King Hussein of Jordan identified water as the only reason that might lead him to war with the Jewish state.
Former United Nations Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali warned bluntly that the next war in the area will be over water.
From Turkey to Uganda, and from Morocco to Oman, nations with some of the highest birth-rates in the world are all concerned
about how to find enough water to sustain urban growth and to meet the needs of agriculture, the main cause of depleting water
resources in the region.
All of these countries depend on either the three great river systems which have an average renewal rate of between 18 days to
three months, or on vast underground aquifers some of which could take centuries to refill.
Alt cause – Western intervention, arms dealers, military spending, and poverty.
War on Want 1 [most recent citation, http://www.waronwant.org/Just20War3F20Poverty2C20conflict20and
20instability20in20Iraq20and20the20Middle20East+4372.twl]
We fully understand from our work in Palestine, Western Sahara and other areas in conflict that stability and justice are central to
defeating poverty. The instability in the Middle East stems partly from years of inappropriate Western intervention. Oil interests
and arms dealers have played a major role in this. Regional military expenditures, at an average of 7%-8% of GDP, are
significantly more than any other region of the developing world. Despite 30 years of large oil revenues, the Middle East has fallen
behind in human development terms - with one in five Arabs living on less than $2 a day.
Alt cause – exclusion from politics increases conflict.
May 6 [Deidre, http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0828-03.htm]
''The dilemma is clear, exclusion from political stakeholding radicalises, moderates, and legitimises violence,'' said Talal, the
outgoing moderator of the WCRP. "For the Middle East to be pulled back from the brink of all-out chaos, we must take the first
difficult steps on that road.''
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
228/420
AT: MIDDLE EAST WARS
1. Middle East wars don’t escalate
Yglesias, ‘7
[Matthew Yglesias is an Associate Editor of The Atlantic Monthly, “Containing Iraq,” The Atlantic, 12 Sep 2007,
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/containing_iraq.php
Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on the "Middle East in Flames" theory holding that American withdrawal from Iraq will lead
not only to a short-term intensification of fighting in Iraq, but also to some kind of broader regional conflagration. Ivo Daalder and
James Lindsay, as usual sensible but several clicks to my right, also make this point briefly in Democracy: "Talk that Iraq’s troubles
will trigger a regional war is overblown; none of the half-dozen civil wars the Middle East has witnessed over the past halfcentury led to a regional conflagration." Also worth mentioning in this context is the basic point that the Iranian and Syrian
militaries just aren't able to conduct meaningful offensive military operations. The Saudi, Kuwait, and Jordanian militaries are
even worse. The IDF has plenty of Arabs to fight closer to home. What you're looking at, realistically, is that our allies in
Kurdistan might provide safe harbor to PKK guerillas, thus prompting our allies in Turkey to mount some cross-border military strikes
against the PKK or possibly retaliatory ones against other Kurdish targets. This is a real problem, but it's obviously not a problem
that's mitigated by having the US Army try to act as the Baghdad Police Department or sending US Marines to wander around the
desert hunting a possibly mythical terrorist organization.
2. Impacts empirically denied
David, ‘97
David, expert on international politics and security studies who is often consulted by members of the media about American foreign
policy in the Middle East, David earned his BA from Union College, an MA from Stanford, and his PhD from Harvard. 97 (Steven.
U.S-Israeli relations at the crossroads. Pg 95 )
It is no great revelation to identify the Middle East as an unstable region. Since the establishment of Israel there have been at
least six Arab-Israeli wars, several inter-Arab conflicts, and countless assassinations, coups, insurgencies and civil wars. This is
in marked contrast to the “developed” world (North America, Western Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) where here has
been no major conflict since the end of the Second World War.
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AT: MILITARY BUDGET
Excess military money is wasted anyway
The Atlantic 6-16 (http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/06/cut-the-military-budget/58282/)NAR
The other reason is that Congress tends to think about boondoggle weapons systems in the context of jobs, not deficits. Killing a
turkey is viewed as eliminating a major employer. (Last month, Frank voted over the objections of the defense secretary to fund a
duplicate F-35 engine built in Lynn, but says he'd kill the fighter altogether if it came to a vote.) So we still buy useless weapons,
over the protests of reformers and defense officials. That kind of backward thinking could start to change. Bringing the deficit
under control is a zero-sum game. Eventually, we'll have to raise taxes and cut spending. As budget pressure grows, the nearly $1
trillion in military cuts proposed by the task force could look appealing. One way of getting this done is through the president's
Deficit Reduction Commission, which will recommend a package of cuts to Congress in December for an up-or-down vote. The
Sustainable Defense Task Force is lobbying the commission to do what Obama wouldn't: consider military cuts, and in the context
of the entire federal budget. Members like Frank and Paul say they'll vote against any package that doesn't, and encourage
congressional colleagues to do likewise.
Gates is already making programs to save money
Government Executive 7-4 (http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0610/060410cdpm1.htm?oref=rellink)NAR
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is ordering a department wide, five-year effort to find more than $100 billion in cost savings in the
Pentagon's budget and redirect that money to pay for military weapons systems and force structure . In the next several days, Pentagon
leaders will direct the military services and defense agencies to scrub their budgets to find $7 billion in savings for the fiscal 2012 budget, Deputy Defense
Secretary William Lynn said Friday. Each of the three services will be responsible for coming up with $2 billion in savings for the fiscal 2012 budget request. But
as a strong incentive, the services will keep within their budgets whatever costs they cut over the next five years to pay their force structure
and modernization bills. The initial cost-savings plans are due by July 31, Lynn said. After the $7 billion savings in fiscal 2012, the annual cost
savings appear to increase significantly to reach a total of $100 billion by fiscal 2012.
World No Go Boom???
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Gonzo and Lison
Impact File 2.0
230/420
AT: MILITARY EDUCATION
1. Military education fails – post-conflict missions that result from traditional training result in failure
Carafano, Ph.D., 08
(James Jay, July 31, “On Teaching War: The Future of Professional Military Education”
http://www.heritage.org/press/commentary/ed080108d.cfm)
Compounding the ambiguous state of teaching the military craft is a long list of lessons learned from the first years of the Long War.
The service's Cold War practice of linking promotion and education proved a tragic mistake. Post-Cold War military operations have
been highly decentralized, requiring men and women at all levels and throughout the force to exercise complex leadership and
management tasks. It turns out in the new world disorder, everybody, not just the best and the brightest destined for generalship,
requires a very high-degree of professional military competence. Neglecting the professional education of the reserves, particularly in
regard to joint education, was a painful lesson as well. Reserve soldiers serve in staffs at every level on every battlefield and they need
to be educated to the exact same standards as their active duty counterparts. Perhaps the most difficult lesson learned was what the real
scope of professional military education should be. The military's role in warfighting was always unquestioned, but its responsibilities
in peace operations are both controversial and poorly understood. This reflected the military's traditional approach to post-conflict
missions, homeland security, and other interagency operations (where soldiers have to work hand-in-hand with a variety of civilian
agencies), which have always been ad hoc and haphazard. The old adage that the military's job is to "win the nation's war" was just
stupid. Nations, all the parts of the nation that contribute the war effort, win wars. And, "winning the peace" is part of winning the war
as well, and many parts of the nation, including the military, have a role here as well. When American forces prepare to undertake
post-conflict missions, they try, as much as possible, to make them mirror traditional military activities. Such an approach can result in
the misapplication of resources, inappropriate tasks and goals, and ineffective operations. In addition, the armed forces largely eschew
integrated joint, interagency, and coalition operations, as well as ignoring the role of non-governmental agencies. The result is that
most operations lack cohesion, flexibility, and responsiveness.
2. Military education doesn’t increase readiness, it trades off with other vital defense spending and teaches concepts that are
relics of the Cold War
Carafano, Ph.D., 08
(James Jay, July 31, “On Teaching War: The Future of Professional Military Education”
http://www.heritage.org/press/commentary/ed080108d.cfm)
Changing a Military Saving professional military education from the relentless budgetary pressures to fund other military priorities is
continuing challenge. Folding the lessons learned from the Long War into the professional military education system is another.
Sustaining the education system is largely a question of maintaining adequate defense budgets--a major battle that will have to be
fought in the years ahead. Institutionalizing the lessons of the Long War, however, will require both money and change.
3. Military education fails – military culture prevents effectiveness
Carafano, Ph.D., 08
(James Jay, July 31, “On Teaching War: The Future of Professional Military Education”
http://www.heritage.org/press/commentary/ed080108d.cfm)
The obstacles to making the military learn more effectively are largely cultural in origin. Therefore, changing military culture could
well require a set of initiatives that cut across the services' education, career professional development patterns, and organization. To
start with, the skills needed to conduct effective post-conflict tasks require "soft power," not only the capacity to understand other
nations and cultures, but also the ability to work in a joint, interagency, and multinational environment. These are sophisticated leader
and staff proficiencies, required at many levels of command. In the present military education system, however, much of the
edification relevant to building these attributes is provided at the war colleges to a relatively elite group being groomed for senior
leader and joint duty positions. This model is wrong on two counts. First, I think these skills are needed by most leaders and staffs in
both the active and reserve components, not just an elite group within the profession. Second, this education comes too late in an
officer or NCO's career. Virtually every other career field provides "graduate level" education to members in their mid-20s to 30s.
Only the military delays advanced education until its leaders are in their mid-40s. That has to change.
World No Go Boom???
Tampa Prep 2009-2010
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Impact File 2.0
231/420
AT: MILITARY MORALE
1. Can’t solve troop morale – operational tempo outweighs
Philpott 7/8
Tom, covered the military for more than 25 years as senior editor, 2k9, What congress can and can't do for troops, families, The
Progress Index, http://www.progress-index.com/articles/2009/07/08/news/military/doc4a549875a944c487453331.txt
Finally, there’s growing recognition that costly personnel initiatives haven’t relieved the greatest source of strain today on service
members and their families -- the tremendous pace of operations. This was emotionally described in early June by spouses called
to testify before the Senate armed services subcommittee on military personnel. The spouses’ collective message was that what
military families need more than anything is more time together. In that regard, perhaps the most critical initiative in the defense
bill are permanent increases in end strength for ground forces, and authority to raise active Army strength by another 30,000 by
2012 if the Obama administration decides to budget for it. Sheila L. Casey, wife of Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Army chief of
staff, told senators that families are so stressed “everything is becoming an issue.” Couples who have seen their marriages
deteriorate “don’t have time to get divorced,” she said. “I am…seeing signs of a force under immense strain, and this concerns me
greatly,” Casey said. “These signs, these indicators, include cases of domestic violence, child neglect as well as increases in
suicides, alcohol abuse and cases of post-traumatic stress.” The strain is especially acute on “our young, newly married Army
families because, with repeated deployments bearing down on them, these young families don’t have enough time together to build
a strong bond. So they are particularly vulnerable to be stressed by the war.” But what keeps her awake at night, Mrs. Casey said,
are the cumulative effects on children of repeated deployments by parent soldiers. She recalled one soldier’s wife at Fort Drum,
N.Y., “through her sobs,” sharing her fear that her two children were growing up without knowing or even attaching emotionally
to their father because he was away so often. The “cumulative effects of nearly eight years of war” will not be easy to reverse,
Casey warned. “My concern is that we are going to see these things appear again later when families have the time to really
reintegrate.” Despite extraordinary support programs, better