Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
A Self-Certification Course
Last modified on 18 January, 2007
Designed by:
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Reviewed by:
Paul Goodwin
Simulated interaction was developed to forecast the decisions that people will make in conflict situations
such as buyer-seller negotiations, employer-union disputes, commercial competition, hostile takeover bids,
civil unrest, international trade negotiations, counter-terrorism, and warfare. These situations can be
characterized as conflicts involving a small number of parties that are interacting with each other. There is
often a great deal of money at stake in such situations and, in the case of counter-terrorism and warfare,
lives. And yet predictions are typically made using unaided judgment. Simulated interaction provides
forecasts that are more accurate than the methods that are currently used.
The Course includes the following materials:
Course Checklist
Course Guide
Pre-Course Test
Method Guide
Certification Examination Certificate of Completion
Examination Answers
Course Checklist
Self-learning courses have been found to be more effective than traditional courses taught in classrooms.
For effective learning, you must follow the steps described in the Course. You can do so when and where
you like.
This is also a self-certification course. In order to obtain your Certificate, you will be asked the six
questions in the Checklist shown below. Your answers to the questions are your testimony as to your
diligence, effort, and success in fulfilling the Course’s self-learning requirements. In other words, you will
be asked to sign that you have followed the Course as designed or, if not, to indicate how you modified the
Course.
Please keep track of your progress using this Course Checklist:
1. I completed all tasks prescribed in the Course.
2. I kept a diary of my learning in which I described what I did and what I learned from
each task.
3. I completed the Pre-Course Test and the Certification Examination before looking at
the Model Examination Answers.
4. I fully understand the answers that I gave and could explain them to another person.
5. The time I spent on the tasks described in the Course Guide was…
6.
The number of times I applied the principles covered in this Course to a real problem
was…
minutes
times
One of my applications was…
Note that the Certification Examination is only one aspect of the Course. Completing the Examination will
not in itself develop your skills in the use of simulated interaction.
The Certificate of Completion (on the last page of this document) allows you to provide a record
of your efforts in completing the Course.
Course Guide
Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
The numbers on the right of this Guide indicate the recommended minimum times to allow for the tasks and
for diary entries. As you work through the Course, keep a diary of what you did, what you learned, and
how you intend to apply what you learned.
As you can see, we recommend at least seventeen hours to become certified in this area. Record
the actual time you spent on each task as you complete it.
Minimum
Actual
(minutes)
1.
Answer the questions in the Pre-Course Test and print a copy.
20
2.
Familiarize yourself with conflictforecasting.com.
60
3.
Study the following and, as you do, make plans for small applications.
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Role Playing: A method to forecast decisions. In
Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A handbook for
researchers and practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic
Publishers, 15–30.
Green, K. C. (2002). Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: A
comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement.
International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321–344.
For additional information, see
150
Green, K. C. (2005). Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided
judgment for forecasting decisions in conflicts. International
Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463–472.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2005). The war in Iraq: Should we have
expected better forecasts? Foresight, 2, 50-52.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). The Ombudsman: The value of
expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Interfaces.
4.
Study the conflict descriptions provided on conflictforecasting.com under
Resources for Researchers so that you can write similar descriptions.
60
5.
Use the Method Guide to help you prepare materials to use in applying the
simulated interaction method to at least one real forecasting problem.
480
6.
Conduct a simulated interaction session to forecast the decision that will be
made in at least one real situation.
120
7.
Take the Certification Examination.
30
8.
Use your Certification Examination answers to grade your Pre-Course Test
answers using grades A through F.
10
9.
Open the Examination Answers file and use the answers in that document to
grade your Certification Examination answers using grades A through F.
10
10. Develop and record the action steps you will take in order to obtain the
knowledge to improve on your weak answers.
20
11. Complete your actions steps.
60
Total minutes
1 020
Pre-Course Test
Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
Answer the following questions as best you can before looking at the course material.
You will be able to refer back to your answers to this pre-course test after completing the
course to assess how much you have learned.
1.
Under what conditions is unaided expert judgment unlikely to provide accurate forecasts?
2.
Explain the differences between role playing and simulated interaction.
3.
Under what conditions (e.g. type of situation) would simulated interaction improve accuracy?
4.
What can be done to reduce forecast errors when using the simulated interaction method?
5.
“In order for simulated interaction to be effective, it is necessary to closely match role players with
the actual decision makers in the target situation.”
True
False
6.
Describe how to use simulated interaction to forecast decisions in conflict situations.
7.
What are the desirable characteristics of a conflict description?
8.
“The primary reason simulated interaction works is that it gets a person to think like the other
party. That is, it puts them in the other person’s shoes.”
True
False
9.
Describe real problems where simulated interaction could help to improve forecast accuracy.
10.
How many simulated interaction forecasts are needed to get a reliable forecast? (Discuss)
Method Guide
Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
Forecasting the decisions people will make in a conflict situation with the simulated interaction method
involves four main steps: (1) describe the roles of the key people in the conflict, (2) describe the target
situation, (3) simulate the situation, and (4) derive forecasts.
(1) Describe the roles of the people in the conflict
Describe the roles of the main decision-makers involved in the target conflict, or describe the roles of two
people to represent each party. Using at least two people to represent a party can increase realism by
making interactions within parties possible. Role descriptions need only be brief: a short paragraph should
be sufficient. If the cost is not great, allocate roles to people who are somewhat similar to the actual people
or type of people involved, otherwise assign roles at random. Ask the role players to read the description of
their allocated role and to adopt it for the duration of the simulation.
(2) Describe the target situation
Before you start writing your description, determine what must be forecast in order to help the client make
the best decision.
When the forecast requirement is clear, write a description of the situation. Descriptions of about
one page in length are sufficiently long to include information about the parties to the conflict and their
goals, relevant history, current positions and expectations, the nature of the parties’ interaction, and the
issue to be forecast. Longer descriptions and unnecessary detail are likely to overburden role players.
Provide an objective description of the situation. Avoid speculation about the motives and
objectives of people in the conflict and, instead, let the facts, including public statements, speak for
themselves.
A comprehensive and accurate description will help role players to conduct realistic simulations.
A good understanding of the situation and considerable care is advisable at this stage. To this end, obtain
information from independent experts, have the description reviewed, and test the material. This process
requires many rewrites and may consume much calendar time.
Because we are concerned here with forecasting decisions, the situation description should leave
role players expecting that they will have to reach a decision. In order to obtain a forecast, it may be
necessary to invent a meeting of the parties or a deadline that will occur during the simulation.
If the relevant options can be identified, provide a list of possible decisions for role-players to
choose from with the situation description. Decision options should be relevant to the client’s own
decision-making requirements, so check with the client to learn how the forecasts will relate to decisions.
(By keeping the client involved, you also increase the likelihood that the forecasts will aid in decision
making.) A short list of decisions provides clarity for role players who are unfamiliar with the type of
situation they are simulating, ensures forecasts are useful, and makes coding easier.
Based on research to date, we recommend that the list should include no more than four decision
options. Three decision options—in essence Party-A’s favored decision, Party-B’s favored decision, and a
compromise decision—often works well. In cases where a more specific forecast is required, break the
forecasting task into parts and forecast each part. For example, having forecast that the decision favored by
Party-B is made, use simulated interaction to forecast what if any concessions are made to Party-A.
Because the decisions might be sensitive to how the situation is described, consider conducting the
simulation with alternative descriptions. To ensure independence, the alternative description should be
made by another team.
If it is feasible, test the materials—role and situation descriptions—by conducting and observing
simulations, and interviewing the role players after each simulation. Change the materials in order to
eliminate any problems that you identify.
(3) Simulate the situation
Provide realistic settings, if this is affordable. In many cases, a meeting room and breakaway rooms for
each party will be suitable.
Ask the role players to improvise and interact with others in ways that are consistent with the
target situation. In many cases, interactions involve face-to-face meetings. Exchanging information using
notes or networked computers, or conducting telephone conversations might be more realistic for other
situations.
Allow one hour for a simulation or parallel simulations.
Use fresh role players in order to avoid the risk that tired role players will harm forecast accuracy.
(4) Derive forecasts
For each simulation, the forecast is the final decision made by the role-players. Role players should each
describe the decision that was made in their simulation or, preferably, chose from a list of potential
decisions that was provided to them the one that was made in their simulation or which was closest to the
decision they made.
Conduct as many as ten simulations, in parallel if this is feasible. Combine the decisions recorded by the
role players from the independent simulations. For example, if seven out of ten simulations end in a
decision to go to war, one would predict war.
Certification Examination
Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts using Simulated Interaction
1.
Under what conditions is unaided expert judgment unlikely to provide accurate forecasts?
2.
Explain the differences between role playing and simulated interaction.
3.
Under what conditions (e.g. type of situation) would simulated interaction improve accuracy?
4.
What can be done to reduce forecast errors when using the simulated interaction method?
5.
“In order for simulated interaction to be effective, it is necessary to closely match role players with
the actual decision makers in the target situation.”
True
False
6.
Describe how to use simulated interaction to forecast decisions in conflict situations.
7.
What are the desirable characteristics of a conflict description?
8.
“The primary reason simulated interaction works is that it gets a person to think like the other
party. That is, it puts them in the other person’s shoes.”
True
False
9.
Describe real problems where simulated interaction could help to improve forecast accuracy.
10. How many simulated interaction forecasts are needed to get a reliable forecast? (Discuss)