Updated: 21 Feb 2007 MICRO ECONOMICS: ECON 601 Lecture 1 Topics to Be Covered: a. Output Restriction b. Constant Elasticities c. Price Controls and Shortages d. Black Markets e. Tax Incidence Analysis f. Marginal Burden g. Trade Restrictions h. Alternative Ways of Subsidizing ECON 601: ADVANCED MICRO ECONOMICS Applied Competitive Analysis Nicholson Chapter 11 – Up to this point we have been developing the tools to undertake the analysis of real world policy issues. – A competitive equilibrium yields a solution that maximizes economic welfare. i.e. Consumer and producer surplus is maximized when a market has reached its competitive equilibrium. P A S P1 F P* P2 E G D B Q* Q1 Q Maximum consumer surplus = P*AE Maximum producer surplus = P*EB Suppose something (e.g. tax or monopolist) causes only Q1 to be demanded and supplied. At this point consumers would value the output at P1 (points F) and the marginal cost of producing more of the goods is only at P2 (Point G). The economy can be made better off by the triangle FEG is output is expanded to Q*. 1 Example Welfare cost Consumptions Output Restriction Linear demand and supply Demand function = QD = 10 – Pd Supply Function = QS = Ps – 2 P 10 S QS = P – 2 7 6 5 QD = 10 – P B 2 3 10 4 Welfare loss = ½ P. Q = ½ (2) (1) = 1 2 Q Constant Elasticities P QD = 200 P – 1.2 QS = 1.3P 11.1 9.87 8.46 D Q 12.8 11 Automobile restriction to control emissions: .5 (11.1 – 8.46) (12.8 – 11) = 2.38 billions of dollar Price Controls and Shortages P S.S. A Pb G L.S. P2 P3 C F P1 E D’ D Q1 Q3 Q4 Shortage Q4-Q1 3 Q With price ceiling of P1 the firms will continue to produce Q1. As compared to the long run equilibrium of (P3, Q3) the price controls cause an economic loss of EAF. The amount CAF is a loss in consumer surplus and the area ECF is a loss in producer surplus. As prices are held down at P1 there is a transfer from producers to consumers of P1P3CE. This is not part of the economic losses but is a transfer from one group to another in society. Price controls and black markets With price controls, black markets tend to develop where people are willing to pay up to P b for the good. Black markets usually develop rather quickly as soon as shortages develop as a consequence of price controls. Tax Incidence Analysis Suppose we impose a unit tax on a good: P S PD P0 F t E PS D Q0 Q1 4 Q PD – PS = t dPD – dPS = dt dQD = dQS Q D Q S dPD = dPS PD PS Q D Q S dPD = (dPd – dt) PD PS (dPS = dPD – dt) Divided by dt, Q D dPD Q S dPD Q S = ( )– PD dt PS PS dt ( Q D Q S dPD Q S )( )= – PD PS PS dt Q s P0 s xpx Ps Q0 dPD = = s d xpx xpx dt Q s P0 Q D P0 Ps Q0 PD Q0 In the same way we find, dPD >0 dt P d xpx dPs = s d xpx xpx dt dPs <0 dt S1 D S0 PD t PS Q Q0 5 If dxp = 0 s xpx dPD = s d xpx xpx dt dPD =1 dt If dxpx = – dPs dPD = 0 but = –1 dt dt because d xpx dPs = s = = –1 d xpx xpx dt P S PD t PS Q The relative change in supply and demand prices, d s xpx xpx dPs dPD d –( )/ = –( s )/( )= – d s d s xpx xpx xpx xpx dt dt 6 Tax Incidence Analysis P S F Pd t P0 Ps H E G D Q0 Q1 Consumers lose P0PdFE Q Tax Revenues = P0PdFH + Producers lose PsP0EG Tax Revenues = PsP0HG +1 Total Taxes FEG is “deadweight” loss an economic cost of taxation. The loss in producers surplus is in fact a loss of the factors of production used to produce the output. DW = ½ dt (dQ) P0 , Therefore dP Q0 d = dQ dQ = d dPD ( dQ = ( d Q0 ) P0 s s d )dt ( Q0 ) P0 7 DW = –½ ( dt 2 d s ) ( s )P0Q0 P0 d Let us consider a 10 percent tax on new houses in North Cyprus. Assume, d = –1.5, s = 2.0, Q0 = 2000 new houses each year P = 35,000 pounds each, DW = –½ (0.10)2 ( = –½ (0.01) ( ( 1.5)( 2) ) (35,000) (2,000) 2 1 .5 3 )(35,000) (2,000) 3 .5 = –½ (0.01) –3.0 (10,000) (2,000) = 0.005 (60,000,000) = 300,000/yr. Marginal Burden Suppose tax rate was increased to 15% i.e. from 0.1 to 0.15 DW = –½ (0.15)2 ( ( 1.5)( 2) ) (35,000) (2,000) 2 1 .5 = 0.01125 (60,000,000) = 675,000/yr. The tax rate rose by 50% but the DW increase by 125%. Same DW costs are associated with transactions costs imposed by business, fees, trade restrictions. 8 Trade Restrictions (1) Gains from Trade P S P0 Pw E0 A E1 D Q2 Q1 Q0 Q P0Q0 if no trade. Now open up to trade that will allow imports at world price of PW. Demand will increase firm Q0 to Q1. Domestic suppliers will reduce production to Q2. Imports will come in to fill gap of (Q1 – Q2). Consumers will gain consumer surplus PwP0E0E1, producers of the item will lose PWP0E0A. The economy will have a net gain of AE0E1. (2) Tariff Protection Suppose domestic suppliers of the item ask for protection from imports. As suppliers are usually fewer and better organized than the economic who benefit from trade, the suppliers might get a protection tariff. 9 P S DW2 DW1 B PR=Pw(1+t) P wt Pw E2 C A E1 F D Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Tariff Revenue = CB E2F Loss to Consumers = Pw PR E2 E1 Gain Domestic Producers = PW PR BA DW2 loss in consumer supplies through inefficient production = ABC DW1 loss in consumer surplus through inefficient consumption =FE2E1 Quantitative Estimates of DW Loss Q3 Q1 Q1 = PR Pw Pw d1 = t d DW1 = - .5 (PR – Pw) (Q3 – Q1) = -.5 (Pw (1 + t) – Pw) Q1 t d = -.5 (Pw + tPw – Pw) Q1 t d = -.5 t2 Pw Q1 d DW2 = .5 (PR – Pw) (Q4 – Q2) Q4 Q 2 Q2 =( PR Pw s ) = t s Pw PRs =(Pw (1 + t)) DW2 = .5 (t Pw) . t s Q2 = .5 t2 s Q2 Pw 10 Quota to limit imports Q3 – Q4. In this case the area BCFE2 that was being collected as revenue will go to the fortunate people who get the import licences or quota permits. Let us consider a Tariff on Automobiles in US. Typical case of Turkey, Malaysia, … etc. QD = 42 P–½ QS = 1.3 P P = $9,000 P S DW2 Tariff revenues E0 9.87 = P0 9.5 9=Pw A DW1 E1 D 1 million Q 11.7 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.3 2.6 million Gain in consumer surplus = PwP0E0E1 = $ 11.8 billion/year Suppose put on a Tariff of $500 / car imported PR = Pw + 500 = 9.5 thousand DW1 = .5 (.5) (14.3 – 13.4) = 0.225 billion DW2 = .5 (.5) (12.4 – 11.7) = 0.175 billion Total DW loss = 0.4 billion Tariff revenue = 500 (1 million) = 0.5 billion DW = loss 80 percent of tariff revenue An automobile quota of 1 million cars would have an identical effect to that tariff of $500. 11 The only difference is that the 500 of tariff revenue would go to whoever got the right to import the cars. Other Example Subsidize the cost of capital from 10 percent to 2 percent in production of electricity. R 0.13 v2 DW 0.05 v1 DK K2 K1 100 billion Q v = r+ d r = real rate of reduction, d = rate of depreciation = 0.3 percent per year kf = elasticity of substitution of capital for fuel dkk = Sk epx – (1 – Sk) kf epx = –0.6 Sk = 0.4 kf = 0.3 dkk = 0.4 (–0.6) – (0.6) (0.3) = – 0.24 – 0.18 = –0.42 1 = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5 2 = 0.10 + 0.03 = 0.13 Capital is subsidized from 0.10 to 0.02, t = u/v1 Rate of subsidy = u per year DW1 = – 0.5 (t2) dkk 1 K1 0.0064 = –0.5 ( ) (–0.42) (0.05) ($100 B) 0.0025 = –0.5 (2.86) (–0.42) (0.05) ($100 B) = 3.003 billion loss 12 Alternative Ways of Subsidizing Barley farming in North Cyprus desire to have farmers receive a price of Pmin/bushel. (1) Set minimum price and government purchase barley and sell surplus at a loss to Turkey. (2) Subsidize people who purchase barley for annual feed and bread. (3) Restrict amount of land that can be planted. (1) Minimum price and Government Purchase Government will sell what it purchases to Turkey P S DW1 = loss caused by reduced consumption = Q2ABQ0 A Pmin C DW2 = loss caused too much production = Q0BCQ1 B B Reduction in DW loss by value of sale of Barley to Turkey by PT (Q1 – Q2) F D PT Q2 Q Q1 Q0 Revenue Cost Pmin (Q1 – Q2) – PTurkey (Q1 – Q2) (2) Subsidize people who purchase barley for annual feed and bread. P S A Pmin e B Subsidy PD C f D Q2 Q1 DW loss = Bef Revenue Cost (Pmin – PD) (Q1) 13 Q Question: How would the economic cost and revenue cost changes if the demand function were less elastic ? Question: How would the economic cost and revenue cost change of the supply function were less elastic ? Question: How does the economic loss and revenue cost change if the demand curve were less elastic ? If the supply curve were less elastic ? (3) Restrict amount of land that can be planted. P SS1 S A Pmin SS0 B C D G Q1 Q0 Q DW = ABC + GAC Revenue Cost = 0 ABC is the loss due to the fact that consumers value output firm (Q0 – Q1) at Q1ABQ0 while the resource saved are only Q1CBQ0. An additional efficiency cost is imposed because farmers tend to farm the land more intensely and use more other factors such as fertilizer, irrigation etc. Question: How does economic loss change is the supply function is more elastic ? If the demand function is more elastic? The End 14