Sri Lanka1
Development Context, Challenges and Response
Sri Lanka is a culturally diverse and naturally endowed country of 65,525 sq km in size with
a population of about 20 million and density of 317 persons per square kilometer (39th.
highest density in the world). Population comprised of Sinhalese (74%), Tamil (17%) and
Muslims (8%). Life expectancy of 71.6 years is close to that of developed nations, mainly
due to large investments in the health and education. The labour force (15-59 years) is about
63% of the population and the population below 15 years estimated at 25%, with the
population pyramid suggestive of an aging population similar to that of developed countries.
Human development indices such as universal primary school enrolment, literacy rates and
gender equality are impressive and the country is ranked 99th in the world with a Human
Development Index of 0.743, in 2007. Sri Lanka is poised to meet or possibly exceed the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) before 2015. However, significant challenges
remain, in reducing income poverty, improving geographic distribution of growth and
protecting the environment. Government has identified 119 Divisional Secretariat Divisions
(DS) to focus poverty reduction programmes.
Most economically
lagged 119 DS divisions
Two decades of armed conflict and the December 2004 Indian Ocean
Tsunami have caused heavy destruction and widespread human
suffering. The security situation remains a major challenge,
undermining the growth and development potential of the country. Sri
Lanka is seeking to eradicate poverty and malnutrition across all
regions and strata of society and promote sustainable human
development and peace while protecting its environment which is
prone to natural hazards and disasters. A pro-poor growth strategy
incorporating (a) a rights-based approach; (b) macro-economic
stability; (c) legal and institutional reform for good governance; and
(d) social justice with equitable and efficient service provision, should
be implemented, in order to meet the above goals and sustain
economic growth and equitable development.
Poverty Profile and Dynamics
Sri Lanka’s mixed development policies over the last four
decades and the on going conflict in north and east have
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influenced the present economic and poverty profile.
20
15
Average per capita income continually increased and
10
reached USD 1,617 in 2007 but 15.2% of the population
5
0
remains below the poverty line in 2007 according to
Urban
Rural
Estate
Sri Lanka
PHC Index (%)
Poverty Gap Index %
Department of Census & Statistics. There are significant
disparities in levels of economic development between the
Western Province and the rest of the country. The highest levels of poverty can be observed
in the estate (11%) and rural sectors (82%). The overall poverty head count has declined from
26.1% in 1990 to 22.7% in 2002 and to 15.2% in 2006/7. While the poverty head count has
declined in the urban and rural sectors, it has increased from 20.5% in 1990 to 32% in 2007
in the estate sector. The internally displaced population (IDP), displaced due to the conflict
35
Percentage
30
1
Prepared as a draft Sri Lanka contribution to the Global Assessment Report (GAR) on disaster risk
reduction. Please do not distribute, copy or use the information as the document is being cleared with
respective Government authorities for content – Contact: ananda.mallawatantri@undp.org
and tsunami has also fallen into poverty and official figures may not reflect prevailing
poverty levels in this population, which is largely resident in the northern and eastern
provinces of Sri Lanka.
Disaster, Intensive and Extensive Risk Profile
Disaster events between 1974 and 2008 compiled using news media provide an unique
opportunity related disaster data to Census data on poverty. The complete dataset at the
Divisional Secretary (DS) level include over 4,029 records and 76% and 24% related to
hydro metrological and geologic events, respectively.
Events (1974 – 2008)
Type
Number
%
Number
964
3,065
24
76
32,032
1,363
Geologic
Hydro Met.
Houses
Destroyed
Deaths
%
96
4
Number
58,965
55,392
Houses
Damaged
%
52
48
Number
%
56,860
318,463
15
85
Total
4,029 100
33,395
100
114,357
100
375,323
Sources: http://www.recoverlanka.net/data/dataportal.html and www.desinventar.lk
100
The data set was divided into two, namely, intensive and extensive events. Events that
resulted in more than 50 deaths or 500 houses
destroyed were groups as intensive. Majority of the
disaster events are extensive in nature. Causes for
mortality is primarily geologic and the intensive
geological event of 2004 Asian tsunami accounted for
90% of all mortalities. Also the tsunami accounted for
49% and 13% of all the houses destroyed and damaged
for the period 1977 to 2008, respectively. Hydro
metrological events are responsible for 85% of the
housing damaged 48% of the destruction of the houses during the 1977-2008 period. Animal
attacks (864 deaths) and Landslides (719 deaths) are the main extensive hazards together
accounting for 71% of the deaths. Floods and Lightning accounted for 263 deaths (12%) and
278 deaths (13%), respectively. Property damages due to extensive disasters are highest due
to floods accounting for about 75% followed by landsides and strong wind events.
Extensive events
Deaths
Houses Damaged
Houses Destroyed
Deaths
Intensive Events
Houses Damaged
Houses Destroyed
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Among the intensive events, the highest proportion (96%) of deaths in intensive events was
attributed to the 2004 tsunami and it also accounted for 57% of the houses destroyed and 20%
of the houses damaged. Cyclones were responsible for damaging over 157,000 houses (67%)
and about 17,600 (17%) houses completely destroyed. Intensive floods contributed to the
destruction of about 24,800 (11%) houses and about 29,300 (25%) of the houses damaged.
Spatial Patterns of Hazards
Intensive risk
Extensive risk
Mortality
Spatial distribution of all hazards taken together
at the divisional level for the period1974-2008
indicate that intensive risks (events causing more
than 50 deaths or destruction of more than 500
houses) are more localized whereas extensive
risks are widely distributed across the country.
As different hazards are linked to variations in
climate such as monsoons and agriculture
seasons etc, separation of hazards is needed for
detailed data analysis.
Houses Destroyed
However, the overall exposure to hazard can be
combined with poverty data to analyze how
populations live in certain locality is being
affected by hazards.
Floods
40000
35000
No of destroyed and damaged houses
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
Intensive and extensive floods events causing
deaths and destruction of houses correspond to
two monsoon seasons, namely, the southwesterly
monsoon and northeasterly monsoon. Almost
every reporting year shows some incidents of
flooding, with a mild increase in the last decade.
The most intense year was 2003 when over 1.2
million people were reported affected by flood.
Deaths due to extensive
flood events
Houses destroyed due to
extensive flood events
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Apart from the highlands, flooding is spatially distributed across the island with high
concentration along the coast in eastern and western Sri Lanka. Flood damage to buildings is
concentrated in riverine, low lying and coastal areas. Southwestern Sri Lanka is more
urbanized and the associated drainage issues cause significant number of flash foods, whereas
in eastern part have a large number of tanks act as drainage basins reducing the risks of
flooding and the flooding is primarily due to heavy monsoonal rains.
Landslides
Landslide events often coincide with flooding events and the
monsoons. Frequency of landslides is on the increase due to
development activities in the steep hill slopes in the country including
agriculture. Almost all landslide events are extensive in nature. Both
deaths and housing damages due to landslides show the same
geographic spread. Frequency of landslides has shown increases, partly,
as a result of increased rainfall intensity.
Houses destroyed by
landslides
Cyclones
Almost all cyclone events fall under the intensive category. Most of
the fatalities and destruction of houses are in the cyclone path
extending from eastern to western Sri Lanka. These cyclones are
primarily as a result of changing weather patterns in the Bay of
Bengal and coincide with the north westerly monsoons in latter part of
the calendar year.
Houses destroyed by
cyclones
Animal Attacks
Houses destroyed by
animal attacks
One noteworthy feature in Sri Lanka is the high number of deaths and
destruction of houses due to animal attacks contributing to the
extensive risks. Most of the attacks are due to wild elephants competing
with humans for the same natural resources. Clearing of elephant
habitats for agriculture and resettlements and increase in the elephant
population have been reported as the primary causes. Animal attacks
are on the rise, primarily in the north central province and southern
province. Housing damages and mortalities have the same spatial
distribution.
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Droughts
120000
100000
Agricultural Crop Loss(Ha)
80000
60000
40000
20000
Crop losses due to
droughts
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
0
Sri Lanka’s profile of drought, a typical extensive risk, shows a large
number of people being intermittently affected, with a peak of 3 million
in 2001. Agriculture crop loss typically followed the geographic and
temporal pattern of droughts. Spatial distribution of droughts
concentrates on northwestern, parts of north central, south and south
eastern areas. Although the extensive tank and irrigation system in Sri
Lanka help Sri Lanka to meet droughts many of the tanks and
reservoirs need de-silting to improve the water holding. Rainwater
harvesting systems and improved efficient irrigation systems are also
being introduced to meet agricultural droughts.
Poverty-risk relationship
Correlation analysis at the divisional level using actual damage or death data up to year 2002
(www.disinventar.lk) and poverty data for year 2002 (www.statistics.lk) revealed that:
1. Strong correlation (0.847 at 1% Significance level) between population below poverty
line and houses damaged due to floods.
2. A less strong correlation (0.404 at 1% Significance level) between population below
poverty line and number of people affected due to floods.
3. A weaker correlation (0.393 at 1% Significance level) between population below poverty
line and number of families affected due to floods.
4. A weak correlation (0.203 at 1% Significance level) between population below poverty
line and area under Paddy in hectares damaged due to floods.
5. No significant correlation observed between poverty and loss due to drought
6. Slight correlation (0.173 at 10% significance Level) between poverty head count and loss
of other farm lands in hectares due to extreme wind effects.
7. Slight correlation (0.238 at 5% Significance level) between population below poverty line
and houses destroyed due to landslides.
8. A less strong (0.465 at 1% Significance level) correlation between population below
poverty line and houses damaged due to landslides.
Thus there is evidence of a correlation between populations below poverty line and people
affected and houses damaged due to floods and houses damaged or destroyed due to
landslides, suggesting that disasters do affect the poor.
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Analysis conducted taking district as the unit of analysis provided less conclusive results.
Incidents of disasters and impacts (deaths and property damages) show poor or no
correlation. A number of districts that has high incidents of disasters do not have much
poverty and vise versa.
Based on these relationships hazards may not necessarily increase or decrease poverty. On
the other hand there is some evidence that poor people are more susceptible to landslides than
the non poor due to the geographic spread of poverty and the environment they live. Lack of
household level data had been a main drawback to test the hypothesis that disasters make
poverty worse.
Policy Recommendations
Understanding extent and spatial distribution of key disasters; socio-economic status of
vulnerable groups; characteristics of the climate, land use and landscape, geomorphology and
water regime etc will help to improve the planning for disasters and service delivery to
vulnerable groups. Poverty has a direct and indirect influence on the vulnerability of
populations living in hazard prone areas. Incorporation of disaster risk reduction in poverty
reduction policies and sector development strategies can benefit the sustainable development
and pro-poor economic growth. In that context, based on the available disaster and poverty
information a number of policy related recommendations can be drawn.
1. Areas identified as most vulnerable for floods, droughts, landslides and cyclones etc.
can be brought under special management zones to introduce best practices on land
use, construction and service delivery and also to target resources and awareness.
2. Poverty reduction programmes should not only focus on the groups below poverty
line but also on the groups that may fall into poverty as a result of disasters. There is a
sizeable population hovering just above the poverty line, who risk falling into poverty
due to unforeseen or external shocks such as inflation, loss of employment or death of
close family and natural or man made disasters.
3. Include Disaster Risk Analysis in infrastructure projects such as roads, dams and
modifications to landscape in the areas identified as vulnerable. One way to do this is
to enhance the present Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) process in project
approval and educate and promote public in decision making on projects.
4. Invest in decision making tools such as hazard and vulnerability profiles for different
hazards and training to the potential users of the hazard and vulnerability data to use
the tools.
5. Analysis on poverty–disaster interface helps in understanding disaster impacts on
populations. Present data at the household level on socio-economic needs to be
strengthened to test the hypothesis of disasters impact the poverty. Data on landscape
and land use data, geological and hydrological features and characteristics at high
resolution to be made accessible.
6. Poverty data in Sri Lanka is not available in the conflict affected areas as well as at
the required intensity in other areas. Opportunity exists to plan the next survey and
other periodic baseline data.
7. National budgetary process should investigate the costs and benefits of investing in
disaster risk reduction vs response. Improving disaster prevention may help Sri Lanka
also to attract investments as the risks and external shocks to business decreases
including that of their potential employees from vulnerable groups
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