University of California
Department of Economics
Doug Steigerwald
Econometrics in Practice: Quantitaive Solutions for Industry Partners
Economics 191DS
Course Goals:
To provide exposure to statistical problem solving with specific focus on questions arising from
industry partners. Potential topics (and partners) include: computer security (the computer
security group at UCSB, firms fighting internet fraud and Intel), finance (Goldman Sachs), and
regional economic analysis (CERF, Economic Forecast Project).
Course Structure:
Meetings: MW 11:00 – 12:15 (North Hall 2013)
Course Begins: Monday, January 6
Course Concludes: Wednesday, March 12
Final Examination: none
My Office Hours:
Requirements:
Article/Chapter Presentations (40%): You will be asked to report on an article or
chapter. Your report should state the main goals of the paper, summarize how the goals
are achieved, offer a critique and propose extensions. You will present each report in an
assigned 25 minute class slot.
Industry Topic Presentations (60%): You will be asked to take charge of an industry
research question and turn in a written report of 5 pages, due one week after your
presentation. You may take a question of interest to you or select one of the following:
 Calculate the tracking error for a financial asset
 Determine the effectiveness of a counterfeit abatement strategy.
In doing so, you will need to present the methodology background for any novel methods
you use. You will present your paper in an assigned class slot of 25 minutes. Your paper
is due one week after your presentation.
Readings:
Principal readings come from
N. Silver, The Signal and the Noise, Penguin, 2012.
Other texts that may provide useful readings
S. McGrayne, The Theory that Would not Die, Yale, 2011.
J. Wooldridge, Introductory Econometrics, South-Western, 2009.
Access to articles: Most articles are available through library. To access readings through
this link when away from campus, refer to configure to configure your computer.
Economics 141
Syllabus
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Course Schedule
1
How to Elicit the Truth
2
How to Detect a Hot Hand
3
How Many are There?
4
How Many to Poll?
5
Investment in Education
6
Fraud Detection
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/141/Lectures/How to Elicit the Truth - Transparencies.pdf
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/141/Lectures/How to Detect a Hot Hand - Transparencies.pdf
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/141/Lectures/How Many are There - Transparencies.pdf
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/141/Lectures/How Many to Poll - Transparencies.pdf
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/141/Lectures/Investment in Education - Transparencies.pdf
http://econ.ucsb.edu/~doug/141/Lectures/Fraud Detection - Transparencies.pdf
7 (W January 29)
Presentation: Jens Montin
Silver 10 “The Poker Bubble”
Presentation:
2010 “How Allies Used Math Against German Tanks” Wired.com
Presentation: Donavyn Olvera
2012 “Benford's Law” DataGenetics .com.
Presentation:
2009 “The Coin Flip: A Fundamentally Unfair Proposition?” Coding the Wheel.com.
8
Prediction How to Elicit Effort 2-3
Wooldridge 6.4 “Prediction and Residual Analysis”
9 (W February 5)
Presentation: Dane Tinley
Silver 1 “A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction”
Presentation:
Silver 2 “Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit?”
Presentation: Jason Gittler
Silver 3 “All I Care About is W’s and L’s”
Presentation: Hiromi Meguro
Silver 4 “For Years You’ve Been Telling Us that Rain is Green”
10
Forecasting 2-10
Wooldridge 18.5 “Forecasting”
11 (W February 12)
Presentation: Michael Holubowski
Silver 5 “Desperately Seeking Signal”
Presentation:
Silver 6 “How to Drown in Three Feet of Water”
Presentation: Scott Detweiler
Silver 7 “Role Models”
Presentation: Iwunze Ugo
Silver 8 “Less and Less and Less Wrong”
Economics 141
Syllabus
12 (W February 19)
Presentation: Evan Berg
Silver 9 “Rage Against the Machines”
Presentation: Daniel Wise
Silver 11 “If You Can’t Beat ‘Em…”
Presentation: Alexandr Lenk
Silver 12 “A Climate of Healthy Skepticism”
Presentation:
Silver 13 “What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You”
13
How to Calculate a Rate of Return 2-24
14 (W February 26)
Jason Gittler
Dane Tinley – Sell, Sell, Sell!
15 (M March 3)
Michael Holubowski – AB Testing in Web Design
Jens Montin – Ethical Economics
16 (W March 5)
Alexandr Lenk – Equilibrium Selection in Games
Iwunze Ugo – Drug Use Patterns
Daniel Wise – Monetizing Mobile Games
17 (M March 10)
Scott Detweiler – Tracking Error
Hiromi Meguro – Voter Turnout Model
18 (W March 12)
Evan Berg – Optimal File Storage of Online Music
Donavyn Olvera – Strategic Behavior and Pokemon
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