THE EFFECTS OF THE INFORMAL SECTOR ON CONSTRUCTION Carol Jewell1, Roger Flanagan1 and Keith Cattell2 ABSTRACT Most construction sectors around the world have a high percentage of output being produced informally. In developing countries informal construction activities can account for as much as 80% of employment (Farrell 2004). In general, the informal sector equates to a significant percentage of country’s GDP - 40% in developing countries and 18% in the OECD highincome countries (Schneider 2002). The informal sector in construction is not well understood and difficult to measure and is thriving both in the developed and developing world. Construction industries are made up of a large number of small firms and a small number of large firms. Many small firms are less likely to be able (or to want to) afford the bureaucratic demands of a nation’s fiscal and legal system. This evasion means a reduction in tax income for the government, and also leads to inaccurate estimates of the true value of construction output. Some national statistical agencies factor in an estimate of the size of the informal sector, but without effective measurement, there is no guarantee that the estimate is a fair one. The message from the paper is that the informal sector in construction is likely to grow. We need to understand the sector and recognise its impact on construction. KEYWORDS Informal sector, construction, taxation INTRODUCTION Discuss the construction informal sector (or any of the other terms used) with anyone and they will probably recount a job they have had done by a local builder or tradesman that was paid for by cash. They may, or may not be, ambivalent about the fact that the work was probably not declared to the tax man. The existence of an informal sector, especially in construction, is a fact of life, and indeed is an important part of the sector for small businesses and for those on a low income. WHAT IS THE INFORMAL SECTOR? There has been substantial research into the characteristics, causes and effects of the informal sector, most of it within the economic community. There are many different terms used to describe the informal sector: irregular economy (Ferman 1973), the subterranean economy 1 Carol Jewell (C.A.Jewell@reading.ac.uk) and Prof Roger Flanagan (R.Flanagan@reading.ac.uk), School of Construction Management and Engineering, Univ. of Reading, PO Box 219, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AW, UK Tel. +44 118 378 6224 2 Assoc Prof Keith Cattell, Department of Construction Economics and Management, University of Cape Town, Private Bag Rondebosch 7701, South Africa cattellk@eng.uct.ac.za Tel: + 27 (0) 21 6897564 1 (Gutmann, 1977), the underground economy (Simon 1982; Houston 1987), the black economy (Dilnot 1981), the shadow economy (Frey 1982) and the informal economy. Van Eck (1987) lists nearly 30 terms that are used as synonyms for, or are closely related to, what he called the underground economy, including: Black, Concealed, Dual, Hidden, Invisible, Irregular, Non-observed, Parallel, Shadow, Underground and Unofficial. There are substantial differences between the measurements undertaken by researchers (Fleming 2000), suggesting that it is not only the definition and measurement that cause disagreement amongst economists; it is also the terms used to describe the informal economy and the use of any estimates in economic analysis (Battacharyya 1999). The International Labour Office (ILO) first used the phrase “informal sector” in reports on Ghana and Kenya in the early 1970s. Their definition of the sector “one which essentially covers the unorganized spectrum of economic activities in commerce, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, transportation and services” they estimate that this economy absorbs as much as 60% of the labour force in urban areas of developing countries. Smith (1994) defines it as “market-based production of goods and services, whether legal or illegal, that escapes detection in the official estimates of GDP.” Bhattacharyya (1999) argues that the hidden economy is best described as “unrecorded national income, calculated as the difference between the potential national income for the given currency in circulation and the recorded national income. For this paper, the commonly used definition of “all currently unregistered economic activities which contribute to the officially calculated (or observed) GNP” will be used. For the sake of clarity the term, “informal economy” is used throughout (Frey & Pommerehne 1984; Feige 1994; Schneider & Enst 2000). IS IT DAMAGING TO THE FORMAL ECONOMY? There are three main reasons why knowledge about the informal sector is important to the economy 1) A large and growing informal economy will render official statistics unreliable for such data as unemployment, workforce statistics, income and output and therefore policies based upon inaccurate information may be ineffective (Harding 1989; Schneider 2002); 2) Tax income will be reduced by the existence of a thriving informal sector and; 3) The informal sector provides many benefits, especially for those on low incomes. The informal sector can be classified into three areas, home production e.g. DIY; illegal market activities e.g. drug dealing, smuggling; and legal market activities that are hidden in order to avoid taxes, registration and other fiscal measures. The third classification is the focus of this paper. There is a close link between the informal sector of a country and its taxation system as the next section shows. A growing informal sector will erode the tax and social security bases of a country. In a developing country, it is a thriving informal Figure 1 The destructive circle economy that stifles the growth of a structured tax created by the informal sector and social security system, but does not stunt economic growth. Figure 1 illustrates how the 2 informal sector can create a destructive circle where growth in the sector will lead to a fall in tax income which may lead to higher taxes and so lead to an increase in the informal sector. Schneider (2002) noted that over 60% of the money earned in the informal sector is spent in the formal economy, representing positive economic activity. The Laffer curve (Figure 2) demonstrates the effects of a tax rate rise on tax revenue. Laffer maintained that, up to an optimum level, any tax rise would produce a corresponding increase in tax income. Beyond the optimum point (T), the tax income would reduce as either people choose not to work so hard or they transfer into the informal sector and at a 100% tax rate nobody would work. The curve illustrates the synergy between Figure 2 The Laffer curve taxation and the informal sector. The construction industry constitutes a high risk of tax non-compliance (Australian Tax Office 2003), due to a number of factors: 1) The widespread use of cash payments in the industry; 2) The high cost of labour (construction is a labour-intensive industry) leads to some companies reducing costs in order to increase their competitiveness; 3) The change from direct labour to indirect labour has made contractual arrangements less accountable and in some cases, this has resulted in non-compliance; and 4) The minimisation of costs, in particular the tax burden, in order to remain competitive. Construction industries around the world are made up of a large number of small companies and a small number of large companies. For example, 93% of the UK construction industry is made up of companies that employ less than 7 people. In the USA 81% of construction companies employ 9 people or less. These small firms are less likely to be able (or to want to) afford the bureaucratic demands of a nation’s fiscal and legal system and so some will seek ways of avoiding tax and social security burdens. Small firms in the sector are less likely to invest in training, research and new technologies, all of which improve productivity. They enjoy the cost advantages of not conforming to the legal and fiscal regulations that bind ‘legitimate’ businesses. Byggnads, the Swedish construction industry union organisation, found that over a third of construction sites in Skäne (Southern Sweden) were manned by informal labour with an estimated output of US$160 million. IS IT A GROWING SECTOR? The transition economies, the developing world countries, and the OECD countries have all experienced significant growth in their informal sector. In some countries it has doubled in the 30 years between 1970 and 2000 - from 10% of GDP to 20% in Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Norway, Spain, and Sweden. There has also been growth in those countries with a smaller informal sector - USA doubled from 4% of GDP in 1970 to 9% in 2000. For OECD countries, the growth has been the fastest in the 1990s (Schneider & Enst 2002) - see Table 1. 3 Table 1 The size of the informal economy in OECD Countries Size of the informal economy (in average % of GDP) using the Currency Demand and DYMIMIC Method 1989/90 1. Australia 2. Belgium 3. Canada 4. Denmark 5. Germany 6. Finland 7. France 8. Greece 9. UK 10. Ireland 11. Italy 12. Japan 13. Netherlands 14. N Zealand 15. Norway 16. Austria 17. Portugal 18. Sweden 19. Switzerland 20. Spain 21. USA 10.1 19.3 12.8 10.8 11.8 13.4 9.0 22.6 9.6 11.0 22.8 8.8 11.9 9.2 14.8 6.9 15.9 15.8 6.7 16.1 6.7 1994/95 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 13.5 21.5 14.8 17.8 13.5 18.2 14.5 28.6 12.5 15.4 26.0 10.6 13.7 11.3 18.2 8.6 22.1 19.5 7.8 22.4 8.8 14.0 22.5 16.2 18.3 14.9 18.9 14.9 29.0 13.0 16.2 27.3 11.1 13.5 11.9 19.6 9.0 23.1 19.9 8.1 23.1 8.9 14.3 22.2 16.0 18.0 16.0 18.1 15.2 28.7 12.7 15.9 27.1 11.2 13.1 12.8 19.1 9.8 22.7 19.2 8.6 22.7 8.7 14.1 22.0 15.8 17.9 16.3 18.0 15.0 28.5 12.5 15.7 27.0 11.1 13.0 12.6 19.0 10.6 22.5 19.1 9.4 22.5 8.7 2002/03 13.8 21.5 15.4 17.5 16.8 17.6 14.8 28.3 12.3 15.5 26.2 11.0 12.8 12.4 18.7 10.8 22.3 18.7 9.5 22.3 8.6 Source: Schneider & Klingmair (2004) Those engaged in the informal sector will not want to disclose their involvement and income, and in most cases the records of transactions will be sparse. There are four main methods used to measure the informal economy; these vary according to whether the measurement is in a developed, developing or transition economy (Hanousek 2003; Schneider & Klingmair 2004): 1) Direct approach 2) Indirect approach 3) Physical input (electricity) and 4) Model approach The direct approach is undertaken either through micro surveys or voluntary replies to tax audits and has been used extensively in Norway and Denmark. The major drawback is the robustness of the data collected as those that reply may not give accurate information, many more may not be willing to reveal any information. Another disadvantage is that it gives a measurement at one point in time rather than over a longer time horizon. There are a number of indirect approaches: The gap between income and expenditure measures. For example in national accounting the income measure of GNP should be equal to the expenditure measure of GNP (Schnieder 2004). However, as this approach uses national statistics that include many omissions and errors, the result is questionable. 4 A decline in the labour participation figures is often used as an indication of an increase in the informal economy. It is not a foolproof method as there may be other reasons for a drop in the labour participation figures. The transactions approach is based on the equation: M*V = p*T (where M = money, V = velocity, p = prices, and T = total transactions) which assumes that there is a constant relationship over time between levels of transactions and the official GNP. This approach ignores the fact that the differences between transaction and GNP figures may not be due solely to the informal economy. The currency demand approach was first used in 1958 (Cagan 1958). It is based on the premise that transactions within the informal economy are undertaken using cash payments, therefore measuring the level of cash in the economy is an indicator of the level of the informal economy. Certain allowances are made for other causes of cash level increases, such as interest rates. This approach has been widely used and has been applied to many OECD countries, but it has some criticisms: not all payments in the informal economy are made in cash. Kaufmann and Kaliberda (1996) made an assumption that electricity consumption is the single best physical indicator of overall economic activity. This ‘physical input’ method has been criticised as not all informal economy activities use large amounts of electricity. Technical progress has produced fuel efficiency which would affect the consumption figures, and there may be considerable differences in the elasticity of electricity/GDP. The model approach recognises there is no single indicator of the informal economy. Production, labour and money markets can all be used to measure the informal economy. The multiple indicator and multiple causal (MIMIC) model, or dynamic multiple-indicator and multiple-causal model (DYMIMIC), uses information contained within relevant indicator and causal variables to estimate a time-path of the size of the hidden economy. The model identifies the multiple causes and effects of the informal economy, rather than using a single measure. The large body of literature on the subject identifies three causes and three indicators (Thomas 1992; Schneider 1994; Pozo 1996; Johnson & Zoido-Lobatón 1998; Giles & Tedds 2002; Del’ Anno 2003): the burden of regulation, direct and indirect taxation (causes); and the development of monetary indicators, the production market and the labour market (indicators). Table 2 shows a comparison of the different approaches to measuring the informal sector and the deviation in the results. Table 2: A comparison of the different methods for calculating the informal sector Mean value* of informal sector (% of GNP) Methods Discrepancy between actual & official labour force. Transactions approach (Feige) Cash-deposit ration (Gutmann) Physical input (electricity) approach Currency demand approach 24.4 21.9 15.5 12.7 8.9 5 Model approach (Frey/Weck-Hanneman) Discrepancy between expenditure and income Tax auditing Survey method Source: Schneider 1998 7.9 6.4 6.1 3.1 * Over 5 countries: Canada, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, USA (1970-90). An increase in the size of the informal sector is linked to a rise in a nation’s tax and social security burden Schneider (1998, 2000). The correlation between the size of the informal sector and three other variables - the level of bureaucracy3 (number of, and time spent on, procedures) and the corruption index4 was tested. There was significant correlation between all of the data as Figure 3 shows. Figure 3 Graphs showing the correlation between the informal sector and three vaiables WHAT TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION WORK IS UNDERTAKEN BY THE INFORMAL SECTOR AND HOW IS IT ORGANISED? Repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) is a growing area. Estimates of the size of the RMI informal sector in the UK range from between 10% and 60% of the value of the work done formally in the RMI sector (Capital Economics, 2003). Many small firms that work in this part of the industry also undertake small housebuilding work and extensions to property. 3 4 Red tape ranking - Centre for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) Corruption index 2004; Transparency International 6 There is little evidence of a large informal sector in the design consultancy and civil engineering works. Entry into design consultancy has many liability issues that require insurances and safety checks, hence it is better to operate in the formal sector. Civil engineering work has a high material and plant component, with work mainly undertaken for the public sector, resulting in less opportunity for informal work. The image of the informal sector organisation is a small group of individuals who are self-employed and working primarily on a cash basis. In reality, there are many types of organisation in construction that operate on an informal basis. For example, there are companies that use overseas labour, paid for on a daily basis, using an intermediary who distributes the payments. There are companies that are formally registered that choose to have some of their income in cash payments, without the appropriate record keeping. HOW DOES THE INFORMAL SECTOR AFFECT CONSTRUCTION? There are different views of the informal economy in the construction sector, some see it as acceptable/inevitable, others view it as a social rather than an economic issue, whilst others see it as having a bad effect on the economy and the industry. Table 4 show the advantages and disadvantages of the informal sector. Table 4: The advantages and disadvantages of the informal sector in construction Disadvantages Advantages Less tax income Regulation non-compliance Unfair competition - difference in costs (e.g. labour, regulation) between firms in the informal and formal sectors Short termism - less strategic planning and no investment in R&D Non-conformity and negative state morality (people’s attitude to the state) Lack of adequate insurances Less employee protection - employment regulations not adhered to and no union representation to deal with grievance procedures and working conditions Lower safety and health standards because of non-conformity /cost Lack of skills training and its effect on the industry skill base Little after-sales care Policies based on inaccurate information eg. unemployment statistics exaggerated Likely to have little capital which means more regular payments from the client Delivery of the product at a lower cost to the client Maintains economic activity A large percentage of informal sector income is spent in the formal sector A positive effect on income distribution with many low income jobs being provided by the informal sector Provides employment for the sector of the labour market that might otherwise have difficulty maintaining employment Encourages creativity and entrepreneurial spirit (which might eventually be used in the formal sector) No barriers to entry Flexible working hours and conditions Reduced bureaucracy/red tape/ unnecessary paperwork adding to the cost of the work Construction companies operating in the informal sector do not (or cannot) use traditional financing options as they are tax/regulation evaders. This lack of access reduces their capital intensity of production and they operate over shorter time horizons; a characteristic that will 7 inevitably have an effect on long-term economic growth (Eilat & Zinnes 2000). The decision to operate in the informal sector may be a response to wasteful government spending, or particular policy decisions. This first step into this kind of ‘anarchy’ is often followed by further avoidance of the regulations and legislation that exist in the formal sector. Although tax evasion is often cited as the main reason for entering the informal sector, many construction organisations have chosen this route because of the cost of excessive bureaucracy, such as employment and safety and health regulations. Regulations generally are a fixed cost to the company, affecting smaller firms the most. The use of unregistered (cheaper) casual labour is possible in the informal sector and reduces costs. However, returning to the formal economy can be very expensive with tax repayments and any penalties; this creates a barrier to entry for firms in the informal sector. Resources and production factors are not used in the most efficient way in the informal sector and so can affect the competitiveness of the industry. A growing informal sector may attract domestic and foreign workers away from ‘official’ firms, creating greater competition. Competitiveness is not just about price, its about creating competitive advantage through both quantitative and qualitative factors. A small firm could undercut a larger firm by avoiding tax and social security commitments, but that may be at the expense of its employees’ rights, health and safety. The UK Inland Revenue (IR) Office claims huge successes from the Construction Industry Scheme which is identifying workers who have not previously declared their earnings to the IR. “Over 100,000 construction workers are paying tax for the first time on their income. Over £1 billion has been deducted from subcontractors in the first year of the scheme” (Inland Revenue Press Release 6, 2000). WHAT ARE THE ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED? Reducing the informal economy would have the benefit of clamping down on “cowboy builders”, and encouraging better quality in the industry, by reducing the extent to which informal economy firms undercut formal economy ones. A smaller price differential between formal and informal economy prices, for example through a tax cut, may mean that households decide the saving made by using an informal economy firm is too small to be worth sacrificing the guarantee of quality got from a formal economy firm. In summary, the issues for the industry are safety, health, insurances, liability, training, investment in the future. Clients want certainty and to minimise their risk. When things go wrong there needs to be somebody to take responsibility. Firms in the informal sector are unlikely to have the resources to cope with a claim. CONCLUSIONS The construction sector has a high percentage of informality, particularly in developing countries. This paper has shown the advantages and disadvantages of the informal sector. The sector is growing in both the developed and developing worlds. In the developed world there is increasing concern about the effect of the sector on economic growth, tax revenue and the effects on industry competitiveness. The sector is viewed differently in the developing world where there are different social and economic pressures. 8 Work undertaken on a cash basis is easy to hide from the authorities and has the benefit of being cheaper for both the customer and the builder/tradesman. Small firms are entrepreneurial and provide valuable employment opportunities, but they are unable to finance the risks when things go wrong. Furthermore, with the lack of training provided by the informal sector there is no legacy for the future. The debate on the informal sector has centred on tax evasion and regulation avoidance, whereas business has changed, we have a more litigious society and a ‘blame culture’. Companies that cannot demonstrate proper insurance and safety compliance are placing the risk with the client who is often taking on liabilities. 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