OVERMANNING IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY Awad S. Hanna1, Chul-Ki Chang2, Jeffery A. Lackney3, Kenneth T. Sullivan4 ABSTRACT This paper details the impacts of overmanning on labor productivity for labor intensive trades, namely, mechanical and sheet metal contractors. Overmanning in this research is defined as an increase of the peak number of workers of the same trade over actual average manpower during project. The paper begins by reviewing the literature on the effects of overmanning on labor productivity. A survey was used to collect data from 54 mechanical and sheet metal projects located across the United States. Various statistical analysis techniques were performed to determine a quantitative relationship between overmanning and labor productivity, including the Stepwise Method, T-Test, P-Value Tests, Analysis of Variance, and Multiple Regression. The results indicate a 0% to 41% loss of productivity depending on the level of overmanning and the peak project manpower. Cross-validation was performed to validate the final model. Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the application of the model. KEY WORDS Overmanning, Labor Productivity, Schedule Acceleration, Schedule Compression INTRODUCTION It is not uncommon for a contractor to find that he or she must accelerate a construction schedule to meet a project completion date. Reasons for acceleration can vary and may be caused by a late start, delays such as inclement weather, poor performance by previous work crews, or additional work required to complete a project. When these circumstances arise, the contractor is forced to accelerate the work progress in order to accomplish a “timely” completion for the owner. This act of acceleration accomplishes what is commonly known throughout the construction industry as schedule compression. Schedule compression is defined as “a reduction from the normal experienced time or optimal time typical for the type and size of project being planned within a given set of circumstance” (CII 1990). Schedule compression is a common practice in today’s construction project. According to previous 1 Professor and Construction Engineering & Management Program Chair, Dept. of Civil and Envir. Eng. University of Wisconsin, 2314 Engineering Hall, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53706 U.S.A. hanna@engr.wisc.edu 2 Research Associate, Dept. of Civil and Envir. Eng, University of Wisconsin, 2304 Engineering Hall, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53706 U.S.A. chulkichang@wisc.edu 3 Assistant Prof., Dept. of Eng. Professional Development, University of Wisconsin, Room 825, 432 N. Lake street, Madison, WI 53706 U.S.A. lackney@epd.engr.wisc.edu 4 Assistant Prof., Del E. Webb School of Construction, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 870204, Tempe, AZ 85287 U.S.A. Kenneth.sullivan@asu.edu 1 studies, time extensions for delay were not granted in approximately 75% of construction projects (Leonard 1988), and more than 90% of contractors in a similar trade (electrical construction) have experienced schedule compression of their original or normal project duration (Noyce and Hanna 1998). There are various situations in which the owner and contractor may consider compressing project schedule before or during construction. There are two technical and legal terms associated with schedule compression or acceleration: mandated acceleration and constructive acceleration. Mandated acceleration occurs when the owner requests an earlier completion date than contractually agreed upon. Constructive acceleration occurs when the contract end date stayed the same despite late start delay or increase scope. For both situations, the most frequent initial reaction of contractors to a schedule compression is to increase on-site labor force by working longer time, implementing shift work, or adding more workers to increase the rate of progress. Among these options, simply adding more workers to the project is the most common. PROBLEM STATEMENT Given the fact that labor costs for labor intensive trades such as mechanical and sheet metal contractor typically range from 33-50% of the total construction cost (Hanna 2001), understanding how and how much overmanning affects labor productivity is crucial. An increase in productivity reduces labor costs in direct proportion. Direct costs incurred by overmanning can be easily tracked, so it is usually not in dispute. The more disputable and the greater cause of increased project costs is labor productivity loss caused by overmanning. Lack of awareness on the part of the contractor of the impact of overmanning may result in finger pointing between the estimating and execution teams. There are few academic and building industry research studies that have quantified the impact of overmanning on labor productivity. There is no precise way to compute the loss in direct straight time labor and loss of productivity due to overmanning. What the building industry needs is a quantitative equation that relates overmanning and labor productivity. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE This study examines the effects of overmanning on labor productivity and the possible causes for productivity loss. This study reviews previous studies regarding the impact of overmanning on labor productivity. The primary objective of this study is to provide a model to quantify the impact of overmanning on labor productivity. Productivity multipliers for various scenario of overmanning will be provided from a quantification model. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY FACTORS APPROACH Understanding the effects of overmanning on labor productivity is quite difficult because the factors affecting labor productivity in the schedule acceleration and compression situation are numerous. In a situation of schedule acceleration and compression, a number of factors such as overtime, shift work, and stacking of trades affect labor productivity. The cumulative impact of these factors on the productivity of labor equate to the actual total manhour beyond 2 the budgeted level expended to complete the project. Waldron (1968) introduced factors approach in which the researcher could theorize each of the factors contributing to a portion of the total productivity loss. This approach has been adapted to determine the impact of overmanning on labor productivity (Figure 1). Δ1 Δ2 Δ3 Δ4 Δ5 100% 100% Original Estimate Δ 1 – Overtime Inefficiency Δ 2 - Overmanning Efficiency Loss Δ 3 - Remobilization Inefficiency Δ 4 - Estimate Accuracy Δ 5 – Premium Time costs over Original Straight Time Cost Accumulated Labor Manhours and/or Cost Accelerated Schedule Estimated Actual Completion Date Time Figure 1: The Factors Approach (Waldron 1968) MACRO ANALYSIS VERSUS MICRO ANALYSIS On a construction project, productivity can be analyzed on a micro or a macro scale. A macro-analysis considers the project as a whole, while a micro-analysis looks at a specific activity of a project (Hanna et al. 1999). Since it is difficult to quantify the impact of overmanning on project as a whole through micro analysis, where productivity is measured by a time per unit production, macro analysis was adapted to determine the impact of overmanning on labor productivity. LABOR COST VERSUS LABOR HOUR In order to compare projects regardless of their geographic area, time of completion, size, and labor hours were used as a basis. By using labor hours as the basis, all different projects can be combined into a single database. All factors including productivity loss and project size were defined by labor hour instead of labor cost. DEFINITIONS For the present research, definitions of overmanning and productivity are: OVERMANNING AND PRODUCTIVITY 3 Overmanning can be understood in two different ways. First, overmanning is defined as putting more workers on jobs than optimal crew size. The optimal crew size is the minimum number of workers required to perform the task within the allocated time frame (US Army Corp of Engineers 1979). Second, overmanning can be referred to as an increase of the peak number of workers over average number of workers of the same trade during project. This second definition will be utilized in this study. Overmanning differs from stacking of trades in that it considers only one trade while trade stacking deals with all the workers from all trades on the job site. Additionally, for this paper, productivity has been defined as the ratio between earned work hours and expended work hours, or work hours used. WHY AND HOW OVERMANNING IMPACTS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY Overmanning has advantage over overtime and shift work in that it can produce a higher rate of progress without the physical fatigue problems associated with overtime and the coordination problems realized with shift work. However, the problems associated with overmanning are inefficiencies due to physical conflict, high density of labor, congestion, and delusion of supervision. Due to increased number of workers, materials, tools, and equipment shortage may occur, and engineering questions and requests for clarification may not be provided in a timely manner due to greater demand within a given period. Coordination and control become more difficult. Since more workers will have to spend time familiarizing themselves with the job, there may not be an opportunity to take advantage of learning curve effects. The demand for labor may introduce less productive workers. It requires more intensive supervision in order not to degrade quality. There are some influencing factors in implementing overmanning. For instance, adequately skilled workers should be available in the market place, and there may be enough space in the work area for added workers. DATA COLLECTION A data collection sheet was used in the acquisition of data for this study and consisted of two parts: (a) information on the contractors’ background (company information and size); and (b) information describing a specific project that experienced overmanning due to schedule acceleration and compression. Data collection sheets were distributed to mechanical contractors and sheet metal contractors in the U.S., with telephone and e-mail follow-up. In some cases, the study team visited contractors to have better understanding of the project utilized in this study. A variety of project factors were collected: project type, size, type of owner, project delivery method, contractor’s role, type of contract, contractor’s project management practice, productivity information, and project schedule along with estimated and actual manpower loading graphs. DATA CHARACTERISTICS To see the impact of overmanning on labor productivity, the research team collected project data and analyzed it. The research data was collected from geographically diverse specialty mechanical and sheet metal contractors. The total databank contains 104 projects, 54 of which meet both the criteria of having an efficiency loss and a Peak/Average ratio greater 4 than an optimal level that will be defined later in this paper. Of the 54 projects, 33 are from the mechanical trade and 21 are from the sheet metal trade. These two trades are similar because they are both labor intensive and connected trades. Connected trades mean there is a distance between source of energy and its final destination. In addition, according to the Occupational Outlook Handbook (2002) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the majority of sheet metal contractors are working for Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning (HVAC), and plumbing in the construction industry. In addition to fabrication and installation, some sheet metal contractors do maintenance work, such as testing, adjusting, and balancing existing HVAC systems. To verify that these two groups are not different, a Two-sample T-test was conducted for efficiency loss and overmanning related project characteristics. The test result shows these two groups are not different statistically (Table 1). Based on the similarity of characteristics of sheet metal work and mechanical work and the result of Two-sample T-test, the projects done by these two trades were combined into one databank and analyzed for this study. Six different types of construction performed in 28 states are represented. The project sizes in terms of manhour range from 700 to 208,451 total manhours. The average crew size at peak manpower was 28. The largest crew size at peak was 90 workers, while he smallest was 4. The average number of workers of trade during project ranged from 1.5 workers to 50 workers. The large diversity contained within the data set will allow for the final regression model to be applicable to a wide spectrum of construction projects. Table 1: Two Sample T-Test Result for Overmanning Model Predictor Variables of Mechanical data and Sheet Metal Data Characteristics Tested Efficiency Loss Actual Peak / Average Manpower Actual Manpower at Peak Group Mean Null Hypothesis Mechanical Sheet Metal Mechanical Sheet Metal Mechanical Sheet Metal 0.140 0.146 μ(Mech.)μ(Sheet Metal) = 0 μ(Mech.)μ(Sheet Metal) = 0 μ(Mech.)μ(Sheet Metal) = 0 1.954 2.100 1.281 1.354 Alternative Hypothesis μ(Mech.)μ(Sheet Metal) ≠0 μ(Mech.)μ(Sheet Metal) ≠0 μ(Mech.)μ(Sheet Metal) ≠0 PValue 0.880 Result Equal to Zero 0.393 Equal to Zero 0.490 Equal to Zero LOST EFFICIENCY To determine productivity under a macro-analysis, estimated hours are taken as the measure of output and actual hours are taken as the measure of input (Hanna et al. 1999). Lost efficiency can be measured by the difference between the actual labor hours expended to complete the project and the estimated base hours (including the approved change order hours). A loss of efficiency may result from a contractor’s inaccurate estimate, exceptional or poor performance, other contractor caused inefficiencies, and/or the impact of productivity-related factors such as change orders, weather conditions, work interruptions, etc (Hanna et al. 1999). To be able to compare projects of varying size, it is necessary to normalize efficiency as a percentage. Percent Lost Efficiency is simply a project’s lost 5 efficiency divided by actual manhours consumed to complete the project (Hanna et al. 1999). As a mathematical expression, Percent Lost Efficiency (% lost efficiency) is given in Equation 1, below (Hanna et al. 1999). % Lost Efficiency Actual Total Manhours ( Estimated Total Manhours Approved Change Order Hours ) Actual Total Man hours …. (1) The strength of this method is its representation of the direct effects, as well as the indirect effects, on productivity since actual labor hours are calculated after the completion of project. THE RATIO OF ACTUAL PEAK MANPOWER AND ACTUAL AVERAGE MANPOWER The level of overmanning is typically measured by the ratio of Actual Peak Manpower to Actual Average Manpower. Different values of the ratio were introduced by several studies; 1.35 for electrical, 1.50 for mechanical (Hanna 2001), and 1.6 for normal civil projects from Allen’s study (Wideman 1994). Clark (1985) reported a ratio of 1.54, but failed to mention the type of construction for which the ratio is applicable. For this study, Allen’s ratio was selected because it represents the worst-case scenario for overmanning. Consequently, if peak over average ratio is greater than 1.6 then we can say the project experienced overmanning, and if peak over average ratio is equal to or less than 1.6 then the project would be regarded as not having experienced overmanning. Unlike stacking of trades which considers all the workers on site from all trades, overmanning deals with only one trade. The number of workers at peak and average number of workers for the trade will be analyzed. QUANTIFICATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT Two variables, Ratio of Actual Peak Manpower over Average Manpower and Actual Manpower at Peak, were selected through stepwise method. Predictor Variables 1) Act. Peak/Avg = Actual Peak Manpower / Actual Average Manpower 2) Log (Act. Peak) = Log of Actual Manpower at Peak (the Number of workers of sheet metal worker (or mechanical worker ) at peak) Multiple regression analysis followed to determine a quantitative relationship between overmanning and efficiency loss with putting Percent Lost Efficiency (formulated in decimal, not percentage form) as the response variable and two independent variables (Act. Peak/Avg., and Log (Act. Peak)) as predictors. A final regression model was developed and is given as Equation 2. %LostEff = - 0.305 + 0.116*Act. Peak/Avg + 0.163* Log (Act. Peak) …………. (2) Table 2 shows the result of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) information for the final model. The R2 value of the regression is 45.5%, a high value for the type of data analyzed. 6 The p-value of the regression analysis was 0.000, and p-values for predictors were also statistically significant, indicating a relatively strong regression model. Table 3 shows the result of the Hypothesis test performed on predicted variables: Act. Peak/Avg and Log (Act. Peak). Low P-values for two predictor variables in hypothesis testing indicate that the predictor variables are not equal to zero, which is against the null hypothesis. Table 2: Analysis of Variance for Overmanning Regression Equation Source Degrees of Freedom Sum of Squares Mean Square F P Regression 2 0.48857 0.24429 21.27 0.000 Residual Error 51 0.58587 0.01149 Total 53 1.07444 Table 3: Hypothesis Testing Result for Overmanning Model Predictor Variables Coefficient Tested Act. Peak/Avg. Log (Act. Peak) Null Hypothesis Equal to Zero Equal to Zero Alternative Hypothesis Not equal to Zero Not equal to Zero P-Value Result 0.000 0.000 Not equal to Zero Not equal to Zero SCOPE OF THE MODEL The data from the mechanical and sheet metal contractors ranged in project sizes of 700 manhours to 208,451 manhours and the Peak/Average ratio range extended from 1.70 to 3.76. Applicable range of actual manpower at peak is from 4 to 50. For projects that fall outside of the ranges for either project size or Peak/Average ratio the model given in Equation 2 is not applicable. VALIDATION Cross validation was used to validate the relation of regression function. In cross validation, the collected data was randomly segmented into five subgroups. The model was refit using four subsets, and then the remaining 20 percent of the data is inputted into the new model and the predictions of the model are compared to the actual percent lost efficiency experienced. This process was repeated for all the five subsets; three out of every four projects fell within ±13 percent of the actual value. COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS STUDIES Since overmanning in the current research is measured as a ratio of the Actual Peak Manpower by the Actual Average Manpower, a comparison to past quantitative studies is difficult. As previously mentioned, in past studies the measurement of overmanning is often left undefined and taken as a percentage, making a comparison of the present research to the past literature unsuitable and inconclusive. CASE STUDY – COLLEGE OF PHARMACY PROJECT An analysis of project data supplied by a sheet metal contractor from St. Louis, Missouri will 7 Workers be examined as an example for the of the use of the overmanning model developed in an actual scenario outside of academia. The objective of the example is to quantify the impacts of overmanning due to schedule compression on the project through the use of estimated labor hours versus actual labor hours. The project began in January, 2002 and was expected to be completed by May, 2003. The sheet metal contractor had to complete their mechanical scope of work by the end of January, 2003 due to variety of delays that were caused by other trades. The time available for the contractor to complete the work was significantly reduced, and the sheet metal contractor had to add more workers to meet the deadline. Estimated 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Actual 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 week Figure 2: Manpower Loading Curve for Case Study Figure 2 shows a week-by-week comparison of the actual and estimated manpower spanning the entire 71 weeks of the project. The figure shows that severe overmanning was experienced during for the period week 16 to week 50, almost during the whole project. The actual peak manpower is 15 on the 40th week and the actual average manpower over the course of the project is 6.7. The actual peak over average ratio is 2.24, a value greater than 1.60, implying overmanning was indeed present. The project size was 14,781 total labor hours, which is between the regression’s applicable ranges. Since the project meets the criteria of being within the specified size and possess a peak over average ratio greater than 1.70 it can be analyzed using Equation 2. According to the final model, Equation 2, this project is estimated to experience a productivity loss, or loss of efficiency, of 0.1465 or 14.65% as a result of overmanning. This quantity is only applicable to portions of the project impacted by overmanning, not the entire project, and represents only the lost efficiency caused by the overmanning. This is an important distinction because of the possibility that Equation 2 may be misused. For example, if a project has 6 workers present daily over the course of its duration with a peak of 15 workers for one day, then returning to 6 workers the following day, the lost 8 productivity calculated by Equation 2 would not be applicable to the entire project, only to the impacted manhours occurring over the one day having 15 workers on site. For the case study, the project experienced an actual Efficiency Loss of 31.1% (calculated using Equation 1), or about 4,600 additional manhours beyond the estimate for the entire project. Applying the results of Equation 2, 14.65% would be multiplied by the portion of the project impacted by overmanning. Referring to Figure 2, this would be primarily the manhours worked from Week 16 to Week 50. From the collected data, 11,694 manhours were worked during these weeks. Multiplying the results of Equation 2, 0.1465 by the 11,694 manhours gives a value of 1,713 manhours that can be attributed to overmanning. This represents 37.2% of total lost manhours of the project. The remainder of the hours lost, approximately 2,887 would be due to other factors such as stacking of trades, or contractor’s inefficiencies and poor field management, etc. LIMITS OF STUDY This study is limited to mechanical and sheet metal projects with lump sum contracts and a traditional project delivery system. Off-project costs may accrue when contractors are forced to reallocate resources from other projects to a project which is experiencing schedule compression. Furthermore, the commitment of schedule compression on a certain project will tie up important resources and hence limit the company’s ability to undertake other work. Consequently, the loss of productivity or even profit from a secondary project is not considered in the analysis. (Hanna 1999). CONCLUSIONS The quantification model can be used to assist mechanical and sheet metal contractors not only in understanding the labor productivity loss of overmanning, but also in calculating productivity loss and labor cost. The study result shows that as overmanning increases, lost labor productivity increases, indicating that a schedule with less overmanning is preferable. If acceleration is required, overtime or shift work may be the more favorable work acceleration technique due to the higher initial productivity losses experienced from overmanning. Decision making on the selection of a schedule compression method is not solely dependent on how much each method affects productivity. There are many other factors to make a sound selection of method. For instance, if the job site has ample space to accommodate more workers, and adequately skilled labors and more supervision are available, overmanning may be preferred to overtime and shift work. 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(1968) “Applied Principles of Project Planning and Control” Haddonfield, New Jersey Wideman, Max. (1994) “A Pragmatic Approach to Using Resource Loading, Production, and Learning Curves on Construction Projects” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 21 10