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Politics Link Uniqueness
OBAMA GOOD
Obama PC High ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Health Care TOA / Obama Pushing ........................................................................................................................................................... 2
Public Popularity High ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Yes Bipart .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4
No Bipart – Not Critical to Passage [1/2] .................................................................................................................................................. 6
No Bipart – Not Critical to Passage [2/2] .................................................................................................................................................. 7
Yes Democratic Unity................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Yes Support for Obama’s Agenda ............................................................................................................................................................. 9
OBAMA BAD
Obama PC Low – Agenda Drains ............................................................................................................................................................ 10
Obama PC Low – CIA Investigation ....................................................................................................................................................... 12
Obama PC Low – Low Support ............................................................................................................................................................... 14
Public Popularity Low [1/2] ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Public Popularity Low [2/2] ..................................................................................................................................................................... 18
No Bipart ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19
No Bipart – Critical to Passage ................................................................................................................................................................ 20
A2 Democratic Supermajority ................................................................................................................................................................. 22
No Democratic Unity [1/2] ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24
No Democratic Unity [2/2] ...................................................................................................................................................................... 26
GOP Weak – No Unity ............................................................................................................................................................................ 28
No Republican Support ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30
No Support for Obama’s Agenda ............................................................................................................................................................. 32
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Obama PC High
Obama has tons of political capital – he has avoided fights
Newsweek 7-10-09
[Eleanor Clift, “Obama’s LBJ Moment” http://www.newsweek.com/id/206117?from=rss]
His poll numbers may be sinking, but six months into his presidency, Barack Obama retains the admiration and the trust of voters .
To be sure, they're not as admiring of his policies. The attacks from critics about unsustainable debt and big government have
taken their toll. Voters question whether his policies will work, and the legions of progressives who backed him wonder whether he has what it takes to work his will on Capitol
Hill.
White House officials say with some pride that Obama doesn't draw lines in the sand. Maybe he should. If political capital is
measured by popularity, Obama still has plenty. What he doesn't seem to have is a willingness to spend it. With health-care reform
working its way through Congress and climate-change legislation within reach for the first time ever, it's time for Obama to get in
touch with his inner LBJ, but so far the signs don't look good.
Obama’s political capital is high but finite
CNN 7-21-09
[John Feehery, “Commentary: Obama enters 'The Matrix” http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/21/feehery.obama.matrix/]
Political capital: A
president enters office with the highest popularity ratings he will ever get (barring a war or some other calamity that brings the country
together), which is why most presidents try to pass as much as possible as early as possible in their administrations. The most famous example
of that was Franklin Roosevelt's Hundred Days. But there are other examples. Ronald Reagan moved his agenda very early in his administration, George Bush passed his tax proposals and
the No Child Left Behind law very early in his White House. They understood the principle that it is important to strike while the iron is hot.
President Bush famously misunderstood this principle when he said that he was going to use the "political capital" gained in his re-election to pass Social Security reform. What he failed
to understand was that as soon as he won re-election, he was a lame duck in the eyes of the Congress, and he had no political capital.
President Obama believes he has a lot of political capital, and perhaps he does. But each day he is in office, his political capital
reserve is declining. And each time he goes to the well to pass things like "cap and trade" makes it more difficult for him to pass
his more important priorities like health care.
Obama has Political Capital - The F22 cuts were a political victory for Obama
NYTimes 7-22-09
[CHRISTOPHER DREW, “Bowing to Veto Threat, Senate Blocks Money for Warplanes”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/22/business/22defense.html?_r=1]
WASHINGTON — The
Senate voted 58-40 on Tuesday to strip $1.75 billion for seven more F-22 fighters from a military spending bill,
handing President Obama a crucial victory in his efforts to reshape the military’s priorities .
The victory came after the president had placed his political capital on the line by repeatedly threatening to veto the $679.8 billion
spending bill if it included any money for the planes.
The F-22, the world’s most advanced fighter, had become a flashpoint in a larger battle over the administration’s push to shift more of the Pentagon’s resources from conventional warfare
to fighting insurgencies.
The plane’s supporters, who ranged from hawkish Republicans to Democrats close to organized labor, also voiced concern over the possible loss of high-paying manufacturing jobs at a
time when the economy is in turmoil.
Senate aides said that Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and the White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, pushed hard to rally support for the president through phone calls to key
senators.
The aides added that some Democrats who might have voted for more of the planes stuck with the president out of concern that a
loss on the F-22 could have hurt him politically in the tougher fight over health-care reform.
Mr. Obama also received some crucial support on the F-22 vote from his Republican rival in last year’s presidential election,
Senator John McCain of Arizona.
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Health Care TOA / Obama Pushing
Obama is pushing health care – a failure will crush his entire agenda
Washington Post 7-14-09
[Ceci Connolly, “On Health-Care Reform, Obama Looks to the LBJ Model” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/07/13/AR2009071303342_pf.html]
President Obama returned to domestic affairs yesterday after a weeklong overseas tour with a warning for skeptics of his stalled health-care overhaul:
"Don't bet against us." The tough talk in the Rose Garden gave way hours later to behind-the-scenes Lyndon B. Johnson-style lobbying,
as Obama pledged in a pair of private meetings with Democratic lawmakers to stake his political capital on this year's top agenda
item.
"I just want to put everybody on notice because there was a lot of chatter during the week that I was gone," he said. "Inaction is not an option." Despite Obama's forceful
reengagement, congressional Democrats continued to struggle last night to finalize details of legislation aimed at overhauling the nation's health-care system. House leaders wrangled with
rank-and-file members over plans to pay for expanded insurance coverage by increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans.
At the White House session, Senate leaders came under fire for a slipping timetable that may make it difficult to meet Obama's deadline for floor action by the August recess.
"The urgency barometer is up," Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said after the meeting.
Obama conveyed to the Senate leaders that he still expects the committee to begin action next week, two Democratic sources said.
The legislative tussles spoke to the daunting challenge of remaking a health system that consumes $1 out of every $6 spent in the country and illustrated why many reform advocates have
been clamoring for Obama, who has studied the Johnson model, to dive deeper into the high-stakes battle.
"Members understand this is really the centerpiece to the president's agenda. They understand he values their input and their
concerns," said Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), who spent three days last week listening to House colleagues catalog their questions, fears and gripes about the
proposed bill. "Now that health care's front and center in both the House and Senate, he should have even more of an impact." In sessions
with Democrats, Obama and his advisers remind lawmakers that the defeat of President Bill Clinton's health-care overhaul spelled electoral disaster for the party in 1994, costing
Democrats control of both the House and Senate.
"Behind closed doors, he essentially says: If this sinks, we will have trouble in 2010," said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at
the moderate Third Way think tank. "If this goes down, they will lose a whole lot of momentum on everything else. Clinton's
whole agenda went down" after the reform's defeat.
In mapping its strategy, the Obama team chose to take its cues from another Democratic senator-turned-president: following the
legislative model employed by Johnson to enact Medicare in 1965 .
"There are two qualities these presidents have in common," said White House senior adviser David Axelrod. Like Obama, Johnson "had a big vision and drove the country toward it, and
second, he had a great appreciation for the legislative process." Early on, Obama and health czar Nancy-Ann DeParle discussed the parallels with Johnson and creation of the health
program that serves 45 million seniors and people with disabilities today. Just as Johnson gave legendary lawmaker Wilbur Mills (D-Ark.) latitude to craft the Medicare bill, Obama has
asked Congress to write the health-care revamp legislation.
And just as Johnson was known for his powers of personal persuasion, Obama, a former senator himself, has assiduously cultivated and cajoled lawmakers.
"He becomes Lyndon Johnson in a more graceful form but just as steely," said Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.). "Obama isn't a
Obama
devotes at least one hour a day to health care, often studying briefing memos about individual lawmakers and their pet issues, said
one White House aide. The topic is woven into most of his public appearances, as he "makes the case that inaction has disastrous implications for the
future," Axelrod said.
toucher" like Johnson, Rockefeller said, "it's just intellect, this sort of streaming knowledge and a deep voice that never seems to get weary. It's clear he has to have this."
Health care is draining Obama’s political capital
Bloomberg 7-14-09
[Laura Litvan, “Obama Prods Top Democrats to Pass Health-Care as Momentum Slows”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aqK5Fs7vJAR8]
President Barack Obama is pressing top Democratic lawmakers to move forward on overhauling the U.S. health-care system amid
signs momentum for the legislation is slowing.
Obama summoned Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer to the White House
yesterday to push for action before Congress takes its August break.
“We are going to do health care before we leave,” Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said at the Capitol following the meeting.
Congressional Democrats have been urging the president to get more involved in the negotiations, with lawmakers debating over how to pay for a plan likely to cost more than $1 trillion
over the next decade and how big a role the government should play in insurance. Some Senate Democrats have said they may not be able to meet the August deadline.
Lawmakers said they felt greater urgency after the White House meeting, with Baucus saying “there was the strongest commitment I’ve yet seen” to get the bill passed.
“There’s no question that the president is prepared to use whatever political capital he has to make this work,” Rangel told
reporters. “He wants a bill.” Conflict Ahead Obama has said the legislation is his top domestic priority and wants the House and
Senate to get a bill to his desk for his signature by October. Conflicts between the House and Senate may get in the way of that timetable.
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Public Popularity High
72 Percent of the Public wants the healthcare reform – poll proves
The Examiner 7-18-09
[Boye' A. Coker, “Poll shows majority of Americans support govt-backed health care” http://www.examiner.com/x-9372-Federal-Way-IndependentExaminer~y2009m7d18-Poll-shows-majority-of-Americans-support-govtbacked-healthcare]
According to a survey conducted by the New York Times and CBS News, the AFP reports that a good 72 percent of Americans surveyed
are not only "in favor of substantial changes to the country's health care system (to include a government-run health insurance
option), but are also willing to pay higher taxes so everyone could have health insurance." As President Obama urged Congress on Saturday in his
weekly radio address to move forward with health care reforms, the so-called Blue-Dog Democrats need to be increasingly aware that the seats they seek to protect by continually serving
as lackeys to the GOP who have absolutely no desire to see this President do anything meaningful for this country (all to further their own selfish ambitions), may actually become
vulnerable as the American people become more enlightened to the realization that the GOP and its political and other lackeys are engaging in obfuscated chattercrawl when it comes to
the meat and potatoes of health care reform. Here is more information below on the Poll results: " A
whopping 85 percent of respondents said the health care
system needed to be fundamentally changed or completely rebuilt, according to the poll .
Most recent poll shows public confidence in health care
AP 7/21/09
[ALAN FRAM, “Poll: Confidence grows for health costs, access”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gSXIViw_RWvU3uweKkhKfhAVGgqgD99IQB202]
WASHINGTON —
Americans are showing more confidence in their ability to get and afford the health care they need, according to a
poll released Tuesday.
Whites, though, are likelier to feel that way than minorities. And large numbers of people are worried about whether they will have future health coverage, with nearly one in four
concerned that family medical bills will drive them into bankruptcy.
The survey, conducted by the nonpartisan Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, showed the public overwhelmingly considers
President Barack Obama's drive to overhaul health care a crucial weapon in the battle to end the country's economic problems — one
of the rationales he has used in his health care campaign. Eighty-five percent said it is important that Obama make reshaping health care part of his
efforts to restore the economy.
The questions were asked in June, as Congress was working on health care in earnest and amid one of the worst recessions since the 1930s. Lawmakers have since moved slowly, with
Republicans and moderate Democrats objecting to the overhaul's roughly $1 trillion, 10-year price tag and to proposals to pay for it.
This survey comes as others have shown trouble for Obama on health care, including a Washington Post-ABC News survey released Monday that found
approval of Obama's handling of health care reform slipping below 50 percent for the first time.
The Johnson foundation study's index of Americans' attitudes about their recent health care experiences and future expectations
rose by 3.6 points last month to 102.3 . That index, based on people's answers to nine questions, was 98.7 in May. The highest possible score is 200, the lowest zero.
Researchers said they were unsure why the measure had ticked up, but said the bump was significant. They suggested it might be due to expectations that Washington will
improve the health care system..
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Yes Bipart
Bipartisanship now – Baucus and Grassley
LA Times 7-9-09
[Noam N. Levey, “Baucus and Grassley team up on bipartisan healthcare compromises” http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-baucusgrassley9-2009jul09,0,1826006,full.story]
Reporting from Waukon, Iowa -- One is a thrifty soybean farmer from Iowa with a penchant for righteous speeches about government waste. The other is a Stanford-educated lawyer from
a Montana ranching family who looks uncomfortable leading a debate. Despite more than 60 years in Congress between them, Charles E. Grassley, the Iowa Republican, and Max
Baucus, the Montana Democrat, are outsiders -- loners whose independent streaks make colleagues wary, sometimes even mistrustful. But unlikely as it may seem, the partnership
between these two slightly eccentric men may hold the key to overhauling the nation's sprawling healthcare system -- a legislative grail that has eluded the giants of the Senate for more
than half a century.
In the face of strident criticism from colleagues in both parties, Baucus (chairman of the Senate Finance Committee) and Grassley (the panel's senior
Republican) are laboring to fashion a series of compromises on healthcare that might win the support of a bipartisan majority on
Capitol Hill.
Their effort got a nod Wednesday from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who at a meeting with Grassley encouraged the quest despite complaints from more-partisan
Democrats. The stakes remain high. If Baucus and Grassley fail, this year's historic healthcare debate easily could devolve into another battle royal between the parties, with the prospects
for meaningful legislation uncertain at best. Many Democrats and Republicans have already rejected a middle ground. "On both sides, there are people who want it their way or the
highway," said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), who is working with the two on a healthcare bill. "But if we want to really make a difference with healthcare .
. . it is critical that we find some compromise." Baucus and Conrad are among the senior Democrats who think that their party will need some Republican support to get the 60-vote
supermajority necessary to prevent a GOP filibuster and move a major healthcare bill to the president this year. Democratic Sens. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, who had been
expected to lead the charge on healthcare, and Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia are battling serious illnesses and may not be able to cast their votes. Moreover, a number of moderates in
the party have expressed reservations about parts of President Obama's healthcare agenda, including the creation a government health insurance plan. And although Democrats could use a
procedural rule they passed earlier this year to push through some healthcare legislation with a simple majority, the rule may prevent them from enacting a comprehensive bill.
Baucus and Grassley have been among the fiercest critics of a single-party approach.
legislation that is historic, that is comprehensive, that has a large number of senators supporting it is more durable,"
Baucus said in an interview. "It will be more sustainable and will inspire more public confidenc e." Baucus, who came to the Senate in 1979, and
"Fundamentally,
Grassley, who joined two years later, have let that philosophy guide them since they assumed senior posts on the finance committee eight years ago.
The two do not socialize outside of the Senate. But since 2001, they have met nearly every Tuesday at 5 p.m. in Baucus' conference room on the fifth floor of the Hart Senate Office
Both men said that they slowly grew to trust one another and to look for
places where they could agree.
"We are pragmatists," Grassley said while in Iowa recently to meet with constituents. "We come from similar states, and I think we have a similar
idea of what bipartisanship is all about." Said Baucus: "Most people in this country want us to basically work together, to get something
done between the 20-yard lines. They are in the center." Their bipartisanship has at times grated on their colleagues, however.
Building. (The coffee is free there, the parsimonious Grassley likes to joke.)
Baucus infuriated fellow Democrats by working for President George W. Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and then featuring a photo of himself with Bush in a campaign flier during his 2002
reelection campaign.
It was only last year that Baucus emerged as a leading champion of universal healthcare , a goal that Democrats have been chasing since the Great
Depression. From the start, he enlisted Grassley's help.
The two senators' staffs have been in almost daily contact, hashing out language for a bill that Baucus has promised will expand coverage, hold down costs and improve quality. Whereas
Democrats on Kennedy's health committee developed their bill largely by themselves and then showed it to their GOP colleagues -- a process that infuriated Republicans -- aides to
Baucus and Grassley "started with a blank sheet of paper," as one Republican staffer said.
The effort has won implicit support from Obama, who has said repeatedly that he does not want to draw lines in the sand on the
issue. The president has spoken frequently with both senators in recent months.
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No Bipart – Not Critical to Passage [1/2]
Democrats will move forward despite bipartisanship– democrats are fed up and ready to move without it
NYTIMES 7-16-09
[ROBERT PEAR and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN, “Health Care Vote Illustrates Partisan Divide”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/us/politics/16health.html]
WASHINGTON — A party-line Senate committee vote on legislation to remake the nation’s health care system underscored the
absence of political consensus on what would be the biggest changes in social policy in more than 40 years.
The bill, which aims to make health insurance available to all Americans, was approved, 13 to 10, by the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions. The panel was the first
Congressional committee to approve the health legislation.
“If you don’t have health insurance, this bill is for you,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, who presided over more than three weeks of grueling committee
sessions. “It stops insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions. It guarantees that you’ll be able to find an insurance plan that works for you, including a
public health insurance option if you want it.” The bill would also help people who have insurance, Mr. Dodd said, because “it eliminates annual and lifetime caps on coverage and
ensures that your out-of-pocket costs will never exceed your ability to pay.” But the partisan split signified potential trouble ahead. Republicans on the panel, who voted unanimously
against the measure, described the idea of a new public insurance option as a deal-breaker. They said they still hoped that a consensus bill would emerge from the Senate Finance
Committee.
The health and finance committees share jurisdiction over health issues. The finance panel, the next step on the way to passage of any measure, is now the focus of intense scrutiny. It
must say how it intends to pay for its proposals and, unlike the health panel, has the power to do so because it can write tax legislation and has authority over Medicare and Medicaid.
President Obama hailed the health committee’s action, but reiterated his insistence that each chamber of Congress approve a health care bill before the August recess. His comments
increased pressure on the chairman of the Finance Committee, Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana, who has been struggling for months to get a bipartisan bill.
“The HELP committee’s success should give us hope, but it should not give us pause,” Mr. Obama said. “It should instead provide the urgency for both the House and Senate to finish
Senators said the White House had been sending mixed signals. For months, they said,
it emphasized the need for a bipartisan bill. But in the last 10 days, one Democrat said, the message has been: “Hurry up. If you
have to go without Republicans, it’s not the end of the world .” As a presidential candidate, Mr. Obama boasted of his ability to transcend partisan splits that had
stymied action in Washington. At a candidates’ forum in Las Vegas in March 2007 — even before he had a detailed health care proposal — Mr. Obama declared that “the
most important challenge is to build a political consensus” on covering all Americans.
The Senate committee vote came just a day before three House committees plan to start amending and voting on similar
legislation that has little chance of Republican support.
their critical work on health reform before the August recess.”
The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, has said he hopes to have a health care bill on the floor by July 27. That goal appears unrealistic, even though members of the Finance
Committee said they were making progress in talks on how to pay for their bill, expected to cost at least $1 trillion over 10 years.
Several Democratic Finance Committee members, including Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Charles E. Schumer of New York,
said they were intent on reaching an agreement with Republicans and were more concerned about the contents of the bill than the
timetable.
It is unclear how long the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress will give Mr. Baucus to work things out. The senator said he was still optimistic about winning support from
several Republicans on his committee like Charles E. Grassley of Iowa and Olympia J. Snowe of Maine.
Mr. Schumer said: “There’s a strong preference for bipartisanship because it makes the bill easier to pass. But if we cannot get
bipartisanship, we must forge ahead because health care reform is too important." Republicans said they were prepared for the
possibility that Mr. Baucus or leaders of his party would lose patience and plow ahead on their own, in the absence of a bipartisan
agreement.
“Time is fleeting,” Mr. Grassley said, praising Mr. Baucus’s efforts. On the most contentious issues, like the proposal for a new public insurance plan, he said, Mr. Baucus has shown that
“he is willing to find a middle ground; he’s not an ideologue.” Mr. Dodd said it was more important to get “a good bill” than a bipartisan one, even as he acknowledged that a bill with
bipartisan support would be more sustainable in the long run.
“There’s a value in achieving bipartisanship,” Mr. Dodd said, “but I will not sacrifice a good bill for that. The people we are working for are
not our colleagues, but the American public.” Mr. Dodd presided in the absence of Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, the longtime champion of universal
coverage who is battling cancer.
White House officials said they had a new standard for bipartisanship: the number of Republican ideas incorporated in the legislation, rather than the number of Republican votes for a
Democratic bill. Mr.
Obama said the health committee bill “includes 160 Republican amendments,” and he said that was “a hopeful
sign of bipartisan support for the final product.” Republicans said many of those amendments were technical, and they were
scathing in their criticism of the bill approved by the health committee .
With a hint of sarcasm, Senator Michael B. Enzi of Wyoming, the senior Republican on the panel, noted that the bill’s title was the Affordable Health Choices Act. But “with its trilliondollar price tag,” he said, “this bill is anything but affordable.” “The bill gets an F,” Mr. Enzi said.
Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, a Republican who has teamed up with Democrats to pass major health care bills over the last 25
years, said the measure approved Wednesday was “totally partisan.” “From the start of the health care debate,” Mr. Hatch said,
“Democrats have completely shut us out of the process.” Senator Judd Gregg, Republican of New Hampshire, said the bill would not provide universal coverage
or reduce health costs, but would result in some Americans’ losing insurance or even their jobs. “Small business will be massively impacted,” Mr. Gregg said.
Senator Barbara A. Mikulski, Democrat of Maryland, said the Republicans were sore losers. “We gave them hours of debate and
opportunities to offer unlimited amendments,” she said. “At the end of the day, they did not want to support universal health
coverage.”
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No Bipart – Not Critical to Passage [2/2]
Democrats will adopt a reconciliation tactic and ignore Republicans while passing health care – Main stream
democrats, Daschle and Podesta attest
AP 6-29-09
[CHARLES BABINGTON, “Dems Warn GOP Not To Overreach In Health Care - Democrats Warn Republicans Not To Overplay Their Health Care Cards
In Name Of Bipartisanship” http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hsKP5waZIVYrxEZ6VNvOxw-9a79QD994J7780]
Mainstream Democrats close to Barack Obama are warning Republicans about insisting on too many changes to the
president's health care overhaul, saying the Democratic-controlled Congress will move ahead without GOP input if they do .
A strong-arm partisan approach may be unpleasant, these prominent Democrats say, but it is better than letting Republicans dictate spending
cuts and insurance rules that many Democratic voters oppose.
For weeks, staunchly liberal groups have complained as key Senate Democrats insisted on a bipartisan approach, especially in the
Finance Committee. The strategy is giving Republicans more clout than their minority status deserves , these critics said.
Now, similar comments are coming from veteran, pragmatic Democrats who have worked closely with Obama and his top aides. They reject the notion that a
controversial Senate tactic - "reconciliation," which essentially bars the minority party from using filibusters to block legislation _
is unworkable or politically unacceptable in the health care debate.
"I would not hesitate to use it" if efforts at genuine bipartisanship fail , former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle said Monday.
The price that Senate Republicans are demanding so far is too high, said John Podesta , a White House chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and now
head of the Center for American Progress. "There is a point at which you have to move on," Podesta said, and reconciliation can be the vehicle when that time comes.
Unlike most liberal activists, Daschle and Podesta have direct ties to the White House's innermost circles. Podesta headed Obama's transition
(AP)
operation. Daschle was Obama's choice to be "health czar" until income tax problems derailed the plan. Both men have written extensively on health care.
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Yes Democratic Unity
The Democrats are unified - Blue Dog democrats are on board with healthcare and they are key to passage
Washington Times 7-21-09
[S.A. Miller and Jennifer Haberkorn, "On health care, Blue Dogs may wag tails” http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/21/blue-dogs-packagainst-pressure-on-health-care/print/]
The conservative Blue Dog Democrats were top dog in the House's negotiations of health care legislation Monday, but past revolts by this
pivotal voting bloc usually ended with members bowing to the party's liberal leadership.
The Blue Dogs, who hold enough seats on the Energy and Commerce Committee to kill the bill this week, spent the day in closeddoor negotiations with Democratic leaders and pressed demands for more cost controls and greater protections for small businesses and rural areas.
"I would term them as productive meetings, but we still have a long way to go," said Rep. Mike Ross, Arkansas Democrat and chairman of the Blue
Dogs' health care task force.
He said the group was playing a constructive role in shaping the legislation and this time would not cave in to pressure from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
California Democrat.
"I've never seen the group so unified," he said, adding that the group is "joined at the hip." But he wouldn't say whether the Blue
Dogs are prepared to kill the bill - and hand President Obama a significant defeat.
The coalition has a record of threatening action but voting with the Democratic leadership after receiving, at best, modest concessions.
In eight key votes to raise taxes since 1993, most of the Blue Dogs ultimately sided with their party to support the measures, according to an analysis by the Club for Growth, a
conservative group advocating low taxes and limited government.
In May 2008, all but four of the roughly 50 Blue Dogs voted for a spending bill that permanently expanded education benefits for members of the armed forces serving since Sept. 11,
2001, paying for the entitlement with a 0.47 percent surtax on individual incomes of more than $500,000 a year.
Earlier in 2008, just one Blue Dog - Rep. Jim Marshall of Georgia - broke with Democrats to vote against overriding President Bush's veto of a bill that expanded government-funded
health insurance for poor children and raised the federal tax on cigarettes 61 cents to $1 per pack.
This time might be different.
Health care is much more of a high-profile issue, and the Blue
the Club for Growth's vice president of government affairs.
Dogs' credibility is on the line with conservative voters in their districts , said Andy Roth,
He called the Blue Dogs a "huge obstacle" and warned that Mrs. Pelosi should take their defection threat seriously .
The whole country is paying attention this time," Mr. Roth said. "I wouldn't
be surprised if they folded, but I think the chances of them standing firm are much higher than in the past ." Blue Dogs appeared unyielding
"It's easier to get away with the small votes when nobody is paying attention.
Monday. A prolonged private meeting with Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry A. Waxman, California Democrat, forced a delay of the hearing.
The Blue Dogs' stance is effectively strengthening the Republicans' hand in the debate by stalling the measure.
Republicans and Blue Dogs share some concerns, such as the high cost and potential tax burden on small businesses. But Republicans are expected to oppose the final bill, while a
segment of the Blue Dogs - possibly a large segment - is expected to be persuaded to support it.
Mrs. Pelosi said she plans to follow through on a promise to deliver the bill before the recess, which begins Aug. 3, but softened that stance Friday.
National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Ken Spain said Democratic leaders are banking on the Blue Dogs' return to the fold, noting that enough of the
caucus's conservative members got on board to pass the climate change bill by a two-vote margin.
"For those Blue Dog Democrats who voted for Pelosi's national energy tax - how many times are they willing to put their re-election chances on the line for the sake of obeying their
speaker?" Mr. Spain said. "Voting for a government takeover of the health care industry paid for by a small-business tax is not only a job killer, but a career ender for any Democrat
Blue Dogs such as Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota and John Tanner of
Tennessee already have been targeted by the NRCC as being rubber-stamp votes for Democrats.
"Tanner claims he's conservative on budgets and spending," said one radio commercial aired this spring, "but this year in Washington, John
Tanner's not voting like a Blue Dog; he's voting like a lap dog - a lap dog for Nancy Pelosi and President Obama ." The Energy and
looking to campaign on a mantle of job creation and fiscal responsibility next year."
Commerce Committee, which began debate Thursday, is expected to continue markup until Wednesday.
The strategy of multiple committees is unifying democrats
NYTimes 7-21-09
[DARREN SAMUELSOHN, “Senate Democrats Prep Team Girds for Climate Battle” http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/07/21/21climatewire-senatedemocrats-prep-team-girds-for-climate-93361.html]
When the Senate debated climate change legislation earlier this decade, it generally was understood the bill had no chance of
becoming law.
Floor debates in 2003 and 2005 came about after high-profile senators forced votes to score political points and embarrass the George W. Bush administration . Just one
committee wrote last year's cap-and-trade bill, which crashed on the floor and became a political liability for Senate Democrats.
This time around, Senate Democrats are trying another approach. They have set out to work as a team, with six separate committees
trying to write language that can build ownership among influential swing votes well before the floor debate begins.
"To me, the more committees that are involved, the happier I am, because you get more and more colleagues that get to understand
it, that get to be part of it," Env ironment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) told reporters last week. "The more colleagues that play a role,
the better." It was Boxer's committee alone that approved the climate bill before last year's floor debate. The process was not smooth, and moderate Democrats howled in protest that she
had not conducted enough outreach on such a momentous piece of legislation.
This year, the EPW Committee is working alongside other powerful panels: Agriculture, Commerce, Energy and Natural Resources,
Finance, and Foreign Relations. For vote counters, that means any number of fence-sitters -- such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Kent Conrad
(D-N.D.), Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) -- will have a crack at the
climate bill in its earliest stages.
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Yes Support for Obama’s Agenda
Obama’s agenda has support – people still trust him
NY Daily News 7-20-09
[THOMAS M. DEFRANK, “Obama still enjoys high support, but even some Dems are getting jittery”
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/07/20/2009-07-20_obama_leaving_some_dems_jittery.html]
WASHINGTON - For
Barack Obama, the honeymoon endures. Nirvana is over .
Six months later into his historic presidency, Obama retains the benefit of the doubt with most Americans.
They like his personal style and
assign him Reaganesque leadership ratings.
"People still trust the President to do his job," an Obama aide said.
For the first time, however, doubts are growing that Obama's trillion-dollar stimulus is too glacial and may not be robust enough to cure the sick economy.
Some jittery Democrats, moreover, whisper that his legislative agenda - particularly an energy bill and the health care reform package - may be too ambitious for the end-of-the-year
deadline Obama has imposed.
"I'm nervous," a Democratic operative close to the Obama White House admitted. "He's set the bar so high that if we don't get energy and health care, the press will eat him alive."
Another prominent Democratic consultant echoes the yips from even some true believers: "It could be great, it could be a disaster." It's plainly premature for such apocalyptic musings,
which strike the Obama high command as weak-kneed heresy.
"It's not bad for six months," Obama said, reeling off a list of accomplishments to a fund-raising dinner last month and warning against complacency.
"This is when it gets hard." Which helps explains why senior Obama officials have quietly solicited the strategic and tactical counsel of Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, who's
been away writing a book.
Obama's polls have slumped as the euphoria of his inauguration gives way to the realities of governing and economic woes. Yet a
clear majority still endorses his performance, and a recent CNN poll found 70% agree he's a strong, decisive leader.
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Obama PC Low – Agenda Drains
F22 Cuts hurt Obama’s Political Capital
NYTIMES 7-14-2009
[CHRISTOPHER DREW, “Obama Repeats Threat to Veto Bill Over F-22 Jet” http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/us/politics/14defense.html]
President Obama placed his political capital on the line Monday and reiterated his threat to veto a military spending bill unless the
Senate removed $1.75 billion set aside to buy seven additional F-22 fighter jets.
Mr. Obama stepped up his campaign after liberal Democrats like Senators Edward M. Kennedy and John Kerry of Massachusetts
said they supported the purchases, arguing that the program would retain high-paying jobs in many districts nationwide.
The F-22, the world’s costliest fighter jet, is the most prominent weapons system that Mr. Obama wants to cancel or cut in his plan to rein in military spending. A vote by the
Senate to keep producing the plane would be an embarrassing setback for him.
Military analysts say it has always been hard to persuade Congress to halt big weapons programs like the F-22, made by Lockheed Martin,
which has suppliers in 44 states and provides 25,000 jobs.
Obama’s political capital is stretched across multiple issues – warming legislation, healthcare, and financial
regulation
The Globe and Mail 7-3-09 – Canadian News Source
[Jeffrey Simpson, “Obama's willing to spend political capital on climate change. Why isn't Harper?”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/obamas-willing-to-spend-political-capital-on-climate-change-why-isnt-harper/article1201317/]
Who knows what will emerge from Congress? The
Obama administration is already fighting for health-care changes and a new system of
financial regulation. The U.S. system might be suffering from legislative overload. Getting something signed and sealed before the
Copenhagen negotiations in December might not be possible.
But at least Mr. Obama speaks of the imperative of reducing greenhouse gases. He's prepared to talk directly to his fellow citizens,
and he's assigned the issue a high priority. He evokes visions of a better future, as in the Gretzky analogy. And he's prepared to spend some political
capital.
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Obama PC Low – CIA Investigation
Internal investigations will sap Obama’s political capital
The Guardian 7-19-09
[Paul Harris, “Bush's key men face grilling on torture and death squads” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/19/george-bush-dick-cheney-torture]
Many insiders think public reaction to those two reports is likely to ensure that Holder eventually appoints a special prosecutor, similar to Kenneth Starr, who investigated Bill Clinton's
affair with Monica Lewinsky. "I think it is likely that Holder will do that," said Larry Johnson, a former senior CIA official.
At the same time, other senior politicians in Congress are investigating the CIA's activities in the Bush era, especially allegations that it
kept hidden a secret assassination squad aimed at top al-Qaida figures. The Senate could announce its own investigation alongside
the House one already now going ahead. Both could subpoena officials, perhaps including Cheney.
One member of the House committee, New Jersey congressman Rush Holt, told his local newspaper that the inquiry should be as intense as the that of the committee which investigated
Watergate. "I think any new investigation will produce revelations that are as jaw-dropping as those that were uncovered by the Church committee," Holt said.
These fresh investigations would add to some already under way. Rove is expected to be called again for further questioning later in the summer. Obama
has ordered his national security officials to examine allegations that Bush officials resisted efforts to investigate a massacre of
hundreds of Taliban prisoners in 2001 by an American-backed Afghan warlord. "I've asked my national security team ... to collect the facts for me that are known and we'll
probably make a decision ... once we have all the facts," Obama said during his recent trip to Africa.
A series of hard-hitting investigations will be celebrated by many on the liberal wing of the Democratic party and human rights
activists. "We have the right to be informed of our government's failed and egregious policies. Our recent history has taught us that the rule of law
is meaningless if left unenforced," said Michael Macleod-Ball, a director at the American Civil Liberties Union.
However, there could also be a political price. Many former intelligence officials are furious that the CIA is being dragged into
politics. "It is pure politics. It is just crazy," said Johnson.
Others say protracted investigations will sap Obama's political capital at a time when he faces a difficult battle over
healthcare reform. Indeed, some conservatives might relish the prospect of rehashing old debates over anti-terror tactics. Cheney
himself, who led a secretive life in office, has been a happily public voice defending Bush policy since he left office and he has strong support from the conservative media.
One parallel might be the Iran-Contra hearings of the 1980s, when a secret plan to ship arms to Iran to raise money for Nicaraguan rebels made Colonel Oliver North - who helped craft
the scheme - a patriotic folk hero. "Republicans will be happy if Democrats want to go down this road. They are happy to have a debate about national security. You could easily see
someone have another 'Oliver North moment'," said Schmitt.
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Obama PC Low – Low Support
Obama’s Political Capital is low – losing support among democratic party
AP 7-18-09
[BETH FOUHY, “Is Obama losing his Midas touch among Dems?”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j4PYGKun8FwQE1yOv3xp0SYIgM9AD99H6N7G0]
NEW YORK — Could
Conservative House
it be that President Barack Obama's Midas touch is starting to dull a bit, even among members of his own party?
Democrats are balking at the cost and direction of Obama's top priority, an overhaul of the nation's health care
system. A key Senate Democrat, Max Baucus of Montana, complains that Obama's opposition to paying for it with a tax on health benefits "is not helping us."
Another Democrat, Rep. Dan Boren of Oklahoma, tells his local newspaper that Obama is too liberal and is "very unpopular" in
his district.
From his first days in office, Obama's popularity helped him pass the landmark $787 billion stimulus package and fueled his ambitious plans to overhaul the nation's health care system
and tackle global warming.
Obama continues to be comparatively popular. But now recent national surveys have shown a measurable drop in his job approval
rating, even among Democrats. A CBS news survey out this week had his national approval rating at 57 percent, and his standing among Democrats down 10 percentage
points since last month, from 92 percent to 82 percent.
With the economy continuing to sputter and joblessness on the rise, many of Obama's staunchest Democratic supporters are
anxious for his agenda to start bearing fruit.
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Public Popularity Low [1/2]
Public Support is decreasing – poll proves
Houston Chronicle 7-15-09
[TODD ACKERMAN, “Poll shows falling support for health care reform” http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/breaking/6530994.html]
Public support for congressional efforts to reform America's health-care system is declining, according to a report released
Wednesday by the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and Zogby International.
The authors conducted an online poll that found 50 percent of respondents oppose a bill introduced by U.S. House Democratic leaders this week
that would overhaul the system and pay for it by raising the taxes of the wealthiest Americans. Forty-two percent said they support the bill.
Poll authors also found a lack of support for a single-payer plan, a public health insurance option, taxing high-income people to
cover the uninsured and a mandate that individuals have insurance . They cited previous surveys that showed slightly more support for those elements of
reform.
“The question is whether the air is coming out of the balloon or it's just a matter of wedding-bell jitters,” said Dr. Ward Casscells, a UT-Houston administrator who created the poll and
commissioned Zogby conduct it. “ As
health care's hour draws near, it's going to take leadership to convince a skeptical people that the
legislation being considered is good for them, not just the uninsured.”
Public opinion of Obama is low - Nearly half of the public disapproved in a recent poll
The Examiner 7-10-09
[Marc Rubin, “CNN pollster hides bad numbers for Obama” http://www.examiner.com/x-6572-NY-Obama-Administration-Examiner~y2009m7d10-CNNpollster-caught-shilling-for-Obama]
Paul Steinhauser, deputy political director at CNN did a story on new poll numbers for President Obama commissioned by CNN.
According to Steinhauser 72% of those polled said that Obama inspired confidence ( down from 75%).
The numbers of the poll were flashed on screen as Steinhauser spoke. Then Steinhauser said it was a different story regarding support for the Presidents policies and how confident people
were with those policies. I never knew what those numbers were because, despite the fact that Steinhauser went on with his report for about another 4-5 minutes, he never gave us those
deteriorating numbers nor were they shown on screen. All we heard from Steinhausers' report is that those numbers were significantly weaker than the "inspire confidence" number, and
down from Obama's previous poll numbers. But Steinhauser never said what those numbers were.
I looked up the numbers and will give them to you here: 53% believe Obama has a clear plan for solving the country's
problems down 11 points since February.
56% say that Obama shares their beliefs on the issues that matter to them, down 7 points since February. CNN declined to publish
the opposing numbers. One could assume its 47% who don't believe that Obama has a plan ( a pretty high number) but some could have answered " I don't know", and the same
is true for the 44% who say that Obama does not share their beliefs on issues that matter most.
But one has to wonder why CNN elected to only give us the 72% "inspire confidence" number and not tell viewers or show, what the other, less impressive and in many ways more
significant, numbers were.
Obama's more significant and deteriorating numbers which CNN declined to report on the air were also supported by a
Rassmussen poll which showed 52% approved of his job performance and 48% disapproved, his worst numbers since his
presidency. And as Rassmussen pointed out , this was the first time his job approval numbers in their poll dipped below his winning
percentage in the election. None of which are good signs.
Public Approval is Down – Decline in Support from Democrats and Independents
CBS News Poll 7-13-09
[“PRESIDENT OBAMA, THE ECONOMY, AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS” CBS NEWS POLL
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_071309.pdf]
Americans express a growing pessimism about the U.S. economy, and that pessimism is taking a toll on the President’s approval
rating. In this poll, 57% approve, down from 63% last month. And now nearly as many Americans disapprove as approve of the way
he is handling the economy. But his rating on handling health care is up.
This economic concern is both national and personal: 50% expect at least another two years of recession, and concern about family job loss has risen five points since last month. Most do
not yet see any impact from the President’s stimulus package, and there is worry that he has tried to accomplish too much in his first few months in office.
PRESIDENT OBAMA AND THE ECONOMY
President Obama’s overall approval rating now stands at 57% - the
first time his rating has dipped below the sixty-percent mark and his lowest rating
since becoming President. 32% of all Americans now disapprove of how he’s handling his job, up from 26% last month. Approval
reached a high of 68% in April.
PRESIDENT OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING
Now 6/2009 4/2009 3/2009 2/2009
Approve 57% 63% 68% 64% 62%
Disapprove 32 26 23 20 15
The decline in support comes from Democrats and independents, while support among Republicans has risen. Although 82% of
Democrats still approve of the job President Obama is doing, this number is down from the nearly unanimous 92% rating they
gave him just last month, and support among independents has dropped eight points to 50%. Just 30% of Republicans approve of the way the
President is handling his job, though this number is up seven points from 23% in June.
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Public Popularity Low [2/2]
Public Support is down – recent poll
ABC News 7-20-09
[GARY LANGER, “POLL: Obama's Approval Slips on Stimulus, Deficit and Health Care, ABC News-Washington Post Poll”
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=8112395]
Rising doubts about the economic stimulus program, broad concern about the federal deficit and tepid support for President
Obama's health care efforts are softening his popularity and giving the still-struggling Republicans a glimmer of hope ahead.
While 56 percent of Americans still think Obama's approach will improve the economy, that's down sharply from a peak of 72
percent when he took office. With the deficit in mind, six in 10 oppose the additional stimulus spending the administration has suggested.
And views of Obama as a "tax-and-spend Democrat" the perception that dogged Bill Clinton in his early days have gained 11 points since March.
Click here for a PDF with charts and questionnaire.
More than Clinton, though, Obama is following the early course charted by Ronald Reagan, the last president to take office in the teeth of a recession. Reagan's job approval rating fell to
57 percent near his six-month mark; Obama's is nearly the same, 59 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, down 10 points from his springtime peak. The bigger concern for
Obama is what came next: Reagan weakened further as the economy struggled, bottoming out at 48 percent approval after his first year in office and 42 percent at the end of his second
year, shortly after unemployment hit 10.8 percent, its highest since the 1940s. It's 9.5 percent now.
That history explains the urgency with which Obama's pushing a range of issues, notably health care; until the economy heads up, his popularity is likely to continue down.
One measure of what may lie ahead is a shift toward political neutrality: In this survey the number of Americans identifying themselves as independents, as opposed to either Democrats
or Republicans, has tied its record high in ABC/Post polling since 1981.
ISSUES Obama remains popular personally and far ahead of the Republicans in trust to handle specific issues, but it's his own ratings for handling those issues where his challenges
show best. Barely
over half, 52 percent, now approve of his work on the economy, down 8 points from its peak. Just under half, 49
percent, approve of his handling of health care, also down 8. And fewer, 43 percent, approve of his handling of the deficit, with 49
percent disapproving only the second issue on which more have disapproved than approved of Obama's work. (The first was the automaker bailout.) Intensity is running against
the president on these issues as well. For the first time more people "strongly" disapprove of his work on the economy than strongly approve, 35 percent vs. 29 percent. Ditto on health
care, 33 percent vs. 25 percent. And on the deficit, strong disapprovers now outnumber strong approvers by 2-1, 38 percent vs. 19 percent.
Another issue illustrates the president's better possibilities: Despite rising casualties, 62 percent approve of his handling of the situation in Afghanistan, a far less partisan rating than his
others, and with intensity running for him rather than against.
Specific to health care, this poll finds majority support for the chief elements of the proposal put forward by House Democrats last
week, with 54 percent in favor, 43 percent opposed. But strong support and strong opposition are equal, at about a third each . And
that's without the pushback concern about the impact on choice and quality of care that long has been a counterweight to support for reform.
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No Bipart
No Bipartisanship – Obama is very partisan
WSJ 7-20-09
[WILLIAM MCGURN “Let’s Face It: Obama Is No Post-Partisan” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203946904574298582782451614.html]
Only last summer we were told that Barack Obama’s political appeal rested on his vision for a “post-partisan future.” The post-partisan
future was one of the press corps’ favorite phrases. It served as shorthand for the candidate’s repeated references to “unity of purpose,” looking beyond a red or blue America, and so on.
Six months into the president’s term, you don’t read much about this post-partisan future anymore. It may be because on almost
every big-ticket legislative item (the stimulus, climate change, and now health care), Mr. Obama has been pushing a highly
ideological agenda with little (and in some cases zero) support from across the aisle. Yet far from stating the obvious—that sitting in the Oval Office
is a very partisan president—the press corps is allowing Mr. Obama to evade the issue by coming up with novel redefinitions.
The redefinition started during the stimulus debate, but it really picked up steam late last month with David Axelrod’s appearance on ABC’s “This Week.” There the president’s chief
strategist explained that a bill didn’t need Republican votes to be “bipartisan”; it was enough if Republican “ideas” were included. A few days earlier, Rahm Emanuel had offered reporters
another redefinition, suggesting that a bill was bipartisan if people merely “saw the president trying” to get Republicans on board.
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No Bipart – Critical to Passage
Healthcare will not move on until bipartisanship is restored
Roll Call 7-16-09
[David M. Drucker, “Lobbying of GOP Heats Up on Health Care” http://www.rollcall.com/issues/55_8/news/36886-1.html]
Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and President Barack Obama
worked furiously Wednesday to lure Republican Senate support for a health
care overhaul, eyeing a self-imposed timeline that could force them to choose between bipartisanship and going it alone.
The Finance Committee was hoping to unveil a health care reform bill by week’s end that scores the support of most Democrats
and a handful of Republicans. But Wednesday night that goal appeared increasingly elusive as Baucus continued to try to woo
Republicans and Obama jumped into the ring by hosting key Republicans at the White House.
Baucus spent Wednesday huddling with GOP Finance members including ranking member Chuck Grassley (Iowa) while Obama hosted Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Bob
Corker (Tenn.), Susan Collins (Maine) and Saxby Chambliss (Ga.).
Obama’s pitch to Republicans on health care comes during a week in which he had seemingly renewed his focus on
bipartisanship. But at a Rose Garden event, the president seemed somewhat skeptical about whether Republicans will come aboard,
indicating the effort would succeed only if GOP lawmakers “are serious about bipartisanship .” As for Baucus, sources close to the
Montana Democrat said that despite the ticking clock, he isn’t ready to throw up his hands. One senior source involved in the Finance talks said: “Discussions are continuing at a healthy
pace, and real progress is happening in these meetings. Rather than focusing on timelines, it’s frankly worth focusing on the fact that several Members in the room expect to come up with
a bipartisan agreement — and come up with it soon.” As Baucus and Obama kicked up their lobbying campaigns, however, some Senate Democrats were starting to read the tea leaves,
fearing GOP Senators would be an impossible get.
They suggested that Baucus — despite his months-long effort to craft a consensus bill — may not prevail and predicted Democrats ultimately would have to forgo bipartisanship.
“Sen. Baucus has been working extremely hard, and as effectively as anyone I’ve ever seen, to get the most Republican support,”
said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), a member of Finance. “But I think it will be predominantly Democrats [supporting the bill]. I think
philosophically, we have a different way of viewing health care .” Grassley, in a conference call with Iowa reporters Wednesday, said Democratic leaders may
push Baucus to walk away from the talks, saying that if Baucus “is getting a lot of pressure from the White House, they may send a message, or Reid may send a message to him to just
forget this bipartisanship stuff. We need to move ahead. Now, I hope that they don’t do that.” The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved on a party-line vote
its health care bill Wednesday. That measure is set to be merged with the Finance legislation, which had been set to be marked up sometime next week, and taken up as one vehicle on the
Senate floor before the chamber adjourns on Aug. 7.
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A2 Democratic Supermajority
Republican votes are needed despite supermajority – internal democratic divisions, perception of bipartisanship
and public support
Washington Post 7-9-09
[Perry Bacon Jr. and Paul Kane, “Senate Democrats Still Seeking GOP Support” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/07/08/AR2009070803884_pf.html]
Senate Democrats spent their first full day holding 60 votes just as they have spent the previous 2 1/2 years without such a supermajority: scrambling to find Republican support for their
key initiatives in order to choke off potential filibusters.
In short, Tuesday's
seating of Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) did little to change the balance of power in the chamber .
Democrats have a large enough majority to pass bills without any GOP support, but they are grappling with internal
divisions on key issues such as health care, climate change and union organizing. In addition, caucus leaders and President Obama
would like at least some Republican backing on key measures so they can say they are enacting a bipartisan agenda , which then-Sen.
Obama made a cornerstone of his 2008 campaign.
Some conservative Democrats who live in GOP-leaning states believe that getting Republican votes on controversial bills
provides them with a line of defense against political attacks back home.
Moreover, two members of the Democratic caucus, Sens. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.) and Robert C. Byrd (W.Va.), have not cast a vote in months. It is not clear whether the health of
either elder statesman -- Kennedy, 77, has brain cancer, and Byrd, 91, is battling the effects of a staph infection incurred during a hospitalization in May -- will allow them to participate in
any key matter before the Senate.
In welcoming Franken to Capitol Hill this week, Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) sounded a conciliatory note.
aren't looking at Senator Franken's election as an opportunity to ram legislation through the Senate ," he said Monday. "In turn,
Senate Republicans must understand that Senator-elect Franken's election does not abdicate them from the responsibility of
governing. That is why we have and will continue to offer Senate Republicans a seat at the table. It is up to them to decide whether
they will sit down and work for the common good or continue to be the 'Party of No.' " But the arrival of a 60th Democratic vote has been accompanied by
"Democrats
increasing pressure from liberal groups nationwide that have helped bankroll the party's electoral successes the past few years. They are now demanding that Democrats follow through on
their campaign promises, with or without Republican votes.
The Democratic Party only has a 50 vote majority
Fox News 7-1-09
[Chad Pergram. “Democrats' Senate Supermajority Not as Strong as Advertised” http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/01/democrats-senatesupermajority-strong-advertised/]
Like an oasis in the desert, the 60-vote Democratic supermajority is a mirage . Yes, former comedian Al Franken is now Minnesota's senator-elect -- thanks to the
state Supreme Court's ruling Tuesday -- giving Democrats enough members in the Senate to hit a filibuster-proof majority. This is no laughing matter. But that's on a really, really good
day. For all intents and purposes, Democrats
don't truly have 60 votes in the Senate. With the addition of Franken, they technically have 58. Sens.
Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., caucus with Democrats but don't define themselves that way. Sanders, a
socialist, is arguably the most liberal member of the Senate, so he's more than willing to buck the Democratic leadership when he
doesn't feel the liberal wing gets a fair shake. Lieberman, by contrast, is a moderate who's plenty willing to challenge the Democratic
leadership when he believes it veers too far to the left. But the Democrats aren't even at 58 votes on most days. Two of the most revered members
of the chamber suffer from poor health. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., has rarely visited the Senate for more than a year because of a struggle with brain
cancer. Sen. Robert Byrd, 91, of West Virginia who has been slowing down in the past few years, recently suffered a staph infection and spent
several weeks in the hospital before his release Tuesday. Depending on the day, the Democratic "supermajority" could be as scant as 56. And then
there are the moderate-to-conservative lawmakers who populate the Senate Democratic Caucus: Sens. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark.;
Mark Pryor, D-Ark.; Ben Nelson D-Neb.; Bill Nelson, D-Fla.; Jon Tester, D-Mont.; and Arlen Specter, D-Pa. This crowd is
known to oppose the Democratic leadership on critical issues and often requires special courting . With them, the big Democratic
majority could work against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , D-Nev., since it gives these moderates the perceived opening to bolt
the party on key votes and freelance -- or act as holdouts that Democratic leaders must woo. There's a reason why former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss.,
titled his book "Herding Cats." In a worst-case scenario, the independence of the moderates whittles the Democratic supermajority
all the way down to a very ordinary 50 votes -- or fewer. Sen. Dianne Feinstein D-Calif., sometimes goes it alone on given issues. And
Franken isn't technically a Democrat either, since Democrats in Minnesota are known as members of the "Democratic Farmer Labor Party." Despite Franken's reputation as an unabashed
liberal commentator before his Senate run, he insisted Tuesday he's not an automatic 60th vote. "I know there's been a lot of talk about the fact that when I'm sworn in I'll be the 60th
member of the Democratic caucus, but that's not how I see it," he said. "The way I see it, I'm not going to Washington to be the 60th Democratic senator. I'm going to Washington to be
the second senator from the state of Minnesota, and that's how I'm going to do this job." Despite the reality of Democrats' less-than-ideal hold on power in Washington, members of both
parties still pointed to Franken's victory as the grease that would let the Democratic agenda slide through. Democrats raised expectations for themselves, hailing Franken's win as key for
efforts to pass health care reform and major energy policies. "With 60 votes now in the Senate, there's no excuse for Democrats not passing our energy (and climate) bill," said a senior
House Democratic aide, referring to the sweeping cap-and-trade legislation Democrats lugged through the House last week against all odds. The package faces dim prospects in the
Senate. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, interpreted the impact of Franken's win as nothing short of complete and total
Democratic domination in Washington. He said that means Democrats essentially own every policy that comes out of the nation's capital.
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No Democratic Unity [1/2]
No Democratic Party Unity – centrists are fighting health care passage
The Hill 7-19-09
[Jeffrey Young, “House leaders cheer healthcare progress amid infighting” http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/house-leaders-cheer-healthcare-progressamid-infighting-2009-07-17.html]
House Democratic leaders declared that the chamber’s healthcare
reform bill is on a fast track to passage despite growing rancor within their own
caucus about costs.
“There continues to be great momentum to pass healthcare reform,” Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said at a press conference with other Democratic leaders.
He said work completed by the Ways and Means Committee and the Education and Labor Committee signaled that healthcare reform was moving forward.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said the House would pass a healthcare reform bill before it leaves for the August recess. “We are on our schedule to bring up the legislation before the
break,” she said.
But centrist Democrats continued to revolt against their leaders, even teaming up with Republicans on some committee votes.
Three Democrats on each committee voted against the legislation.
President Obama plans to give a speech at the White House on Friday to press his party forward. He also hosted a group of freshman House Democrats worried the $540 billion tax on the
wealthy would hamper small-business owners. Separately, the White House nudged Congress to beef up the cost-containment provisions in the measure, reiterating its support for the
creation of an independent panel to set Medicare’s payment rates for medical providers that would be subject to a single up-or-down vote in Congress. The White House even provided
congressional leaders with draft legislative language for its proposal.
The two committees approved their respective sections of the $1 trillion bill, which must still be combined with the portion of the bill being considered by the Energy and Commerce
Centrist Democrats on the Energy and
Commerce Committee are expected to offer many amendments in an attempt to bring the bill further toward the political middle,
specifically on issues related to containing healthcare costs.
Committee. The new spending would be offset through new taxes on the wealthy and cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.
Despite the frustration among centrists, Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller (D-Calif.) predicted that Democrats will unite when the bill hits the floor, which is
slated to happen in less than two weeks.
“Our members are in full force to come to the floor and support this legislation and they will all report for duty [at] the time that that vote is taken,” Miller said.
The Democratic leaders acknowledged, however, that concerns about the long-term cost of healthcare reform have not been addressed and would have to be during the legislative markup
in Energy and Commerce. “There’s no doubt the bill is going to have changes as it moves through the process,” Hoyer said. “We will need to build on the cost-containment measures we
The centrist Blue Dog Democratic coalition is protesting that the bill does not do enough to bring down healthcare
spending over the long term despite a preliminary Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis that indicated the legislation would not increase the deficit over the next 10
already have.”
years. CBO Director Doug Elmendorf added fuel to that fire Thursday, when he told a Senate panel that the House bill and legislation approved by the Senate Health, Education, Labor
and Pensions (HELP) Committee would increase federal healthcare spending after the 10-year, deficit-neutral budget window for the legislation.
House Democratic leaders defended their bill but acknowledged they are seeking additional mechanisms to contain costs. “We’re very proud of the reforms in the package, we’re very
House Democratic leaders face serious challenges to
satisfying the members of their caucus but are significantly nearer to a positive result than their Senate counterparts.
proud of the cost-savings,” Pelosi said. “Of course, we want more and we’d be pleased to take more.”
Some Democrats are siding with the GOP on health care panel votes
NYTIMES 7-18-09
[ROBERT PEAR and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN, “House Panels Approve Health Plan”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/health/policy/18health.html]
WASHINGTON — The House Committee on Education and Labor approved legislation on Friday morning to remake the nation’s
health care system by a 26-to-22 vote. Three Democrats crossed party lines to vote against the bill — Jason Altmire of
Pennsylvania, Jared Polis of Colorado and Dina Titus of Nevada.
The vote came eight hours after the House Ways and Means Committee approved the measure, 23 to 18, with three Democrats
voting no. They were Ron Kind of Wisconsin, Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota and John Tanner of Tennessee.
Democrats who voted against the bill cited concerns like tax increases, the effect on small businesses and the possibility that a
new government-run health insurance plan might underpay doctors and hospitals by using Medicare reimbursement rates.
Of the five Congressional committees working on the legislation, three have now approved it.
On Thursday, a party-line Senate committee vote on health care legislation also underscored the absence of political consensus on
what would be the biggest changes in social policy in more than 40 years.
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No Democratic Unity [2/2]
Democratic Infighting is helping the Republican Cause
Politico 7-13-09
[Chris Frates, “Republicans search for health language” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/24896.html]
With Democratic infighting slowing health care reform’s momentum, Republicans are using the opportunity to beef up party
rhetoric that has yet to gain much public traction. In a recent memo, Republican consultant Alex Castellanos coins a new phrase that he believes will slow down
reform by making voters nervous: “the Obama experiment.” “This is 20 percent of our economy. This is our health care and our future. If we screw this up, it could last for generations.
And Congress is trying to do this in two months! This should scare the living daylights out of all of us,” he wrote. “President Obama is experimenting with America, too much, too soon,
and too fast. … “If we slow this sausage-making process down,” Castellanos continued, “we can defeat it and advance real reform that will actually help.” He bases his analysis on
recent polling done by the Republican National Committee. Castellanos calls on Republicans to push a “patient-centered health care movement” that is in direct competition with “the
old, top-down Washington-centered system the Democrats propose.” He also writes that Democrats are selling health care reform on a message of reducing health costs. To be effective,
he argues, Republicans must fight on equal footing. “We cannot compete with their cause v. our policies. We must compete with their cause v. our cause,” he wrote. “The good news is
that reducing costs consistent with free-market principles is not only the GOP mission, it is also a different and better way of doing it than the administration is proposing.” For months,
Republicans have been searching for an effective way to oppose the Democrats’ government-centric plans without appearing to oppose health reform. Castellanos’ memo follows one
written in May by another GOP messaging expert, Frank Luntz. But with Democrats starting to talk about a health reform bill that could cost $1 trillion and be paid for with tax increases
and cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, Republicans are sensing an opening. Republican strategist Kevin Madden has worked on talking points with Republican lawmakers
and said the GOP is starting to master the message. “As Republicans, we were casting about and struggling with our health care message efforts the last few months. We kept talking
Democratic stumbles have presented us with an
opportunity to re-align ourselves with American voters as fiscal pragmatists who also care about health care reform as an
important value.” A senior House Republican leadership aide said the party’s messaging is making an impact.
“More and more Democratic members have real and legitimate concerns about a public plan option that will lead to governmentrun health care, reforms that won’t lower health care costs but instead add hundreds of billions in new government spending, and
tax increases on small business that will lead to additional job losses during a recession,” the aide said. Jacki Schechner, a spokeswoman for the
about it in very clinical terms, as if we were a bunch of accountants wearing green eyeshades,” he said. “But these
progressive group Health Care for America Now, said, “It’s very clear that the Republican goal is to kill health care reform and they will do everything they can to stall and delay. They
have no intention of creating reform that will actually work for the people of this country. They’re more interested in political tactics and loaded talking points.”
Democrats don’t follow a party line – they act independently
Iowa Gazette 7-11-2009
[James Q. Lynch, “Harkin weighs in on Senate supermajority”
http://www.gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090712/NEWS/707129930/1006]
a filibuster-proof 60 votes doesn’t mean Senate Democrats will march in lock-step behind their leaders, Sen. Tom
Harkin (D-Iowa) said last week.
Democrats tend to go their own way and are less likely to follow their leaders in a direction that doesn’t serve their home state
constituencies, Harkin said. The seating of Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., this week could provide the 60th vote Democrats need to block filibusters by minority Republicans. But that’s
Finally achieving
not a given, Harkin warned.
“I think Democrats being Democrats — like Will Rogers once said, ‘I’m a member of no organized political party: I’m a
Democrat’ — I think that holds true today,” he said.
The Senate’s 58 Democrats have to rely on votes from Independent Sens. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont as well as from Republican-turned-Democrat
Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania to get to 60 votes.
Even then, Democrats have recently been two votes short of cloture because of the health-related absences of Sens. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Robert Byrd of West Virginia.
So blocking Republican attempts to filibuster health care reform or climate change legislation may be difficult, Harkin said, because Democrats “tend to be more
independent than Republicans ... in the way we approach things.” Harkin said the elephant symbol for Republicans and the donkey
for Democrats are appropriate. At the circus, he said, elephants wrap their trunks around the tail of the elephant in front of them “and
wherever the lead elephant goes, they follow.” On the other hand, “you’ve got to hit a donkey in the head with a two-by-four just
to get their attention sometimes,” Harkin said. “To try to get them to march in the same direction is almost impossible.” That makes the
prospect of reconciliation a “distinct possibility,” Harkin said. Reconciliation is a process intended to allow a contentious budget bill to be considered without being
subject to filibuster. Debate can be limited to 20 hours and amendments are limited, too.
Attempting to force senators to follow their caucus leaders can be difficult because “the people who elect you don’t serve in the
Senate,” Harkin said. “They’re back in your home states.” In the end, forging a winning majority can be “a very delicate balance in trying to meet the needs of different
constituencies,” he said.
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GOP Weak – No Unity
Republicans are divided and play into Obama’s hand
Fox News 7-1-09
[Jon Kraushar, “How Republicans Can Stop Handing Victories to Obama” http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2009/07/01/republicans-stop-deliveringvictories-obama/]
Although President Obama enjoys a Democratic majority in both the Senate and House it is actually Republicans who keep
delivering legislative victories to him.
On June 26, the House just barely passed Obama's controversial cap-and-trade global warming bill by a seven-vote margin (219-212). It was the 8
Republicans who voted for the bill who provided the margin of victory. Those Republicans are: Mary Bono Mack (Calif.), Mike Castle (Del.), Mark Kirk
(Ill.), John McHugh (NY), Frank LoBiondo (NJ), Leonard Lance (NJ), Dave Reichert (Wash/), and Chris Smith (NJ).
In February, Republicans were unable to filibuster against Obama's $787-billion stimulus package in the Senate because Republicans Olympia
Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania (who has since become a Democrat) denied Republicans the nay votes they needed.
When it comes to cap-and-trade, health care and Obama's next legislative target -- immigration reform -- can Republicans be any
more united and effective? Possibly, but it will require some changes in their image and their communications.
White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel summed up Republicans' problems in April when he said, " When you're the party of no, when you're the party of
never; when you're the party of no new ideas, that's not constructive. The challenge will be, will the Republicans come to the table
with constructive ideas?" Never mind the reality of Emanuel's charge; it is the perception that counts. How has Obama so quickly pushed through spending and legislation that
Americans would normally recoil from? It is based on the perceptions that he "inherited" a mess left by Bush and the Republicans and that at least he's trying, he cares and he's doing
something.
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No Republican Support
No Republican Support – they are starting a media war against health care
The Miami Herald 7-20-09
[WILLIAM DOUGLAS, “Both sides in health care debate using scare tactics to make their case” http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/vprint/story/1150099.html]
The health care scare is on. With the House of Representatives and the Senate hoping to vote on comprehensive health care bills by the end of this month, opponents and
proponents of the measures are intensifying their rhetoric and saturating the media to move public support to their sides.
The Republican National Committee unveiled an ad Monday charging that the Democratic health care bills moving through the
House and Senate are President Barack Obama's "risky experiment with our health care ." The Republican ad joins a softer, multimillion-dollar
campaign by America's Health Insurance Plans, an insurance lobbying group that wants Congress to slow the pace of health care legislation. The group's ad urges "bipartisan reforms that
Congress can build on." Political analysts and advocates predict that the rhetoric from Obama and lawmakers combined with the ad wars from interest groups will be sharper and more
superheated than the 1993 public debate over President Bill Clinton and former first lady Hillary Clinton's failed health care plan.
"It's going to be as contentious as 1993, especially if a Senate vote approaches," said Ed Gillespie, who served as counselor to President George W. Bush. "It's a personal issue and a
Some of that intensity bubbled up last week on a conference call
hosted by the advocacy group Conservatives for Patients Rights when Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said that halting health legislation
in Congress could help put the brakes on Obama's presidency.
"If we're able to stop Obama on this it will be his Waterloo," DeMint said. "It will break him." Obama pounced on the remark Monday, issuing a
quality of life issue. The closer we actually get to a bill, the more intense it will get."
statement that rebuked DeMint without identifying him.
"Think about that," the president said. "This isn't about me. This isn't about politics. This is about a health care system that is
breaking America's families, breaking America's businesses, and breaking America's economy." However, Republicans - armed with
Congressional Budget Office estimates that the House Democratic health care plan would cost $1 trillion over 10 years - are taking to the airwaves, the Internet and
other outlets to proclaim that Obama's health care overhaul would be a small-business killer that would lead the country to
financial ruin and create a government-run health care system akin to those in Canada and European nations.
"We're committed to using every means at our disposal to slowing this process down," House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana said Monday.
No Republican Support – Trying to derail healthcare
Washington Post 7-21-09
[Perry Bacon Jr. and Michael A. Fletcher, “GOP Focuses Effort To Kill Health Bills” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/07/20/AR2009072002273_pf.html]
Emboldened by divided Democrats and polls that show rising public anxiety about President Obama's handling of health care and
the economy, Republicans on Monday launched an aggressive effort to link the two, comparing the health-care bills moving
through Congress to what they labeled as a failed economic stimulus bill.
And the news Monday that the Obama administration would delay release of a congressionally mandated report on the nation's economic conditions only stoked the rhetoric, spawning
GOP speculation that the White House is trying to avoid bad news amid the health-care debate.
"The last time the president made grand promises and demanded passage of a bill before it could be reviewed, we ended up with the colossal stimulus failure and unemployment near 10
percent," Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) said. "Now the president wants Americans to trust him again, but he can't back up the utopian promises he's making.
"He insists his health-care plan won't add to our nation's deficit, despite the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office saying exactly the opposite," DeMint added. "And today we learn
Republican National
Committee Chairman Michael S. Steele said in a speech Monday that Obama is "conducting a dangerous experiment with our
health care." Steele added: "He's conducting a reckless experiment with our economy." Obama responded by resuming his public campaign for health-care reform, stumping on the
that the president is refusing to release a critical report on the state of our economy, which contains facts essential to this debate. What is he hiding?"
issue for the third time in four days. "The need for reform is urgent, and it is indisputable," he said at Children's National Medical Center in Washington.
But later in the day, Obama hinted for the first time that he would not let the August deadline become a deal-breaker.
"If somebody comes to me and says, 'It's basically done; it's going to spill over by a few days or a week' -- you know, that's different," he said Monday night on PBS's "NewsHour With
Lacking unity on an alternative agenda to Obama's health-care plans, Republicans have instead focused on a strategy of
rallying public opposition and wooing the conservative Democrats in Congress, whose votes will ultimately determine the fate of
any health-care bill. That plan depends in large part on Congress going on break before it votes on a bill. On Monday, though, Republicans made clear that they
see an opportunity to derail the legislation now.
Jim Lehrer."
The RNC started running ads blasting the Democratic proposals, and William Kristol, editor of the conservative magazine the Weekly Standard, implored Republicans to "go for the kill."
"We have plenty of time to work next year on sensible and targeted health reform in a bipartisan way. But first we need to get rid of Obamacare. Now is the time to do so," Kristol wrote
on his magazine's blog.
Several House Democrats in the conservative Blue Dog Coalition have already said they will not vote for the current House bill,
citing the risk of raising taxes in this economic climate. The House bill would expand insurance to 97 percent of Americans but would add a surtax of 1 to 5.4
percent for families earning more than $350,000 a year. Democrats are considering raising the surtax so that it applies only to individuals making at least $500,000 and families making $1
million a year or more, aides to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Monday night.
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No Support for Obama’s Agenda
Obama has lost all credibility and popularity – he has been unable to get his agenda passed
The Examiner 7-17-09
[John Kinsellagh, “Why Obama and his agenda are faltering” http://www.examiner.com/x-2913-Boston-Republican-Examiner~y2009m7d17-Why-Obamaand-his-agenda-are-faltering]
The dismal failure of the $787 billion stimulus package, will prove to be one of the signature events of Barack Obama's early
presidency — but not quite in the manner he may have originally intended. The many broken promises of the stimulus, as well as the political
recklessness and fiscal dereliction displayed in its enactment, have culminated in a heightened public scepticism about Obama's
radical policy goals, his governing style, and his credibility. So stark is the contrast between that which was so boldly promised, and the paucity of the results
achieved, that in retrospect, it will be seen as Barack Obama's political Waterloo. For, despite what he may now preach, the spectacular and extravagant flop of the
stimulus insures that his mellifluous words will no longer be able to obscure the glaring contradiction between his words and his
deeds.
Ever since his meteoric rise during the presidential campaign, Obama has enjoyed an immunity from reconciling the contradictions attendant to his
ascension as a political figure. As Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers and his unrepentant liberal voting record during his brief stint in the U.S. Senate attest, the myth of Obama, as
a post partisan, post racial, transcendent political figure, an idea created and succored by a corrupt media, frequently clashed with reality. This lack of scrutiny on the part of
an adoring and compliant press continued after his inauguration finding its expression in the evolution of the "Obama Gap": the
gulf between his words and his actual deeds; the divergence between the promises made and the actual policies pursued .
As the intensity of the growing opposition to his health care fix and cap and trade proposal reveals, Obama's agenda is now
floundering because the stimulus boondoggle has set in motion a cascade of bad faith between President Obama and the American
public. From the very beginning of his Administration, there has been a curious divergence between Obama's policy goals, disfavored by most Americans, and his relatively high
personal popularity ratings. In part, this was due to the fact that many voters were willing to overlook these differences in order to give their new president the benefit of the doubt. But
with absolutely nothing to show for depleting our national Treasury by over 3/4 of a trillion dollars, he has now finally squandered his good will. Thus the
stimulus represents
not only a black mark on his credibility, but also a damning indictment of his competency as Chief Executive .
As is evident from his absence in the legislative forging of both the stimulus and the cap and trade bills, Obama oddly seems to think that his detachment from the legislative process is a
regal virtue. But as the sordid end product of both of those attempts at political mischief demonstrate, when you outsource the drafting of pivotal legislation to West Coast liberals, given
their predisposition to overreach when they command the reigns of power, disaster is sure to follow.
Yet in light of the stimulus' failure, instead of sober reflection such a setback might occasion in those not so ideologically inflexible nor wedded to a belief in the unlimited and
ameliorative powers of government, Obama is proposing that the same lethargic institutions that are responsible for having disbursed only 10% of the stimulus funds run our health care
system and be placed in charge of our national energy policy.
most voters now aren't buying what Obama and his fellow Democrats are
selling. Americans have started to express serious reservations about the massive and unprecedented national debt Obama is
incurring Yet, he continues to govern with a blithe indifference to the perils his unprecedented deficit spending will have on the debasing of our currency, the crushing burden it will
But, as recent polling data indicate, in the wake of the stimulus debacle,
impose on future generations and the crippling effect it will have on our economy.
Those who had the temerity to raise the issue of Obama's fitness for the presidency in light of his sparse executive experience, his radical voluntary associations and his unrepentant liberal
voting record during his brief stint in the U. S. Senate, were at best dismissed for upsetting the jubilant Hope and Change phenomenon that was sweeping the nation and at worst, were
pilloried as racists. These same individuals, once painted as knaves by the media, are beginning to now look prescient.
In terms of his credibility, Obama crossed the Rubicon with the stimulus. Henceforth, a healthy skepticism on the part of voters will greet his every pronouncement.
If Obama's
political strategy seems increasingly detached from fiscal and economic reality and at odds with public sentiment, it is because,
blissfully unaware of his diminished standing, he is reading from the same script that has reliably served him so well. But the gig is
up. The stimulus has permanently tarnished the halo of the New Messiah. The political splendor of Obama as a transcendent
political figure has dissipated, as Americans conclude, that the words of the silver-tongued rhetorical magician are just that —
words.
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