Chapter 5 – Decision-Making: The Essence of the Manager’s Job The Decision-Making Process Define decision and decision-making process. Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process. A decision is a choice. The decision-making process consists of eight steps that begin with (1) and (2) identifying a problem and decision criteria and (3) allocating weights to those criteria; move to (4) developing, (5) analyzing, and (6) selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem; (7) implementing the alternative; and concludes with (8) evaluating the decision’s effectiveness. (See Exhibit 6-1.) The Manager as Decision Maker Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making. Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment. Explain intuitive decision making. Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions. Contrast the three decision-making conditions. Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches. Describe the four decision-making styles. Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may exhibit. Describe how managers can deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases. Explain the managerial decision-making model. The assumptions of rationality (see Exhibit 6-6) are as follows: the problem is clear and unambiguous; a single, well-defined goal is to be achieved; all alternatives and consequences are known; preferences are clear, constant, and stable; no time or cost constraints exist; and the final choice will maximize the payoff. Bounded rationality says that managers make rational decisions but are bounded (limited) by their ability to process information. Satisficing is when decision makers accept solutions that are good enough. Escalation of commitment is when managers Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 1 of 11 increase commitment to a decision even when they have evidence it may have been a wrong decision. Intuitive decision making is making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. (See Exhibit 6-7.) Programmed decisions are repetitive decisions that can be handled by a routine approach and are used when the problem being resolved is straightforward, familiar, and easily defined (structured). Nonprogrammed decisions are unique decisions that require a custom-made solution and are used when the problems are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. (See Exhibit 6-8.) Certainty is a situation when a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known. Risk is a situation when a manager can estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. Uncertainty is a situation where a manager is not certain about the outcomes and can’t even make reasonable probability estimates. When decision makers face uncertainty, their psychological orientation will determine whether they follow a maximax choice (maximizing the maximum possible payoff); a maximin choice (maximizing the minimum possible payoff); or a minimax choice (minimizing the maximum regret—amount of money that could have been made if a different decision had been made). There are four decision-making styles. The directive style has a low tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. The analytic style has a high tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. The conceptual style has a high tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. The behavioral style has a low tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. (See Exhibit 6-12.) Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 2 of 11 The 12 common decision-making errors and biases including: overconfidence, immediate gratification, anchoring, selective perception, confirmation, framing, availability, representation, randomness, sunk costs, self-serving bias, and hindsight. (See Exhibit 6-13.) Managers can avoid the negative effects of such errors and biases by being aware of them and then not doing them. They should also pay attention to how they do make decisions and the heuristics (rules of thumb) they actually use. Finally, managers might want to ask those around them to help identify weaknesses in their decisionmaking style and try to improve on them. The managerial decision making model (see Exhibit 6-14) helps explain how the decision-making process is used to choose the best alternative(s) either through maximizing or satisficing and then implement and evaluate the alternative. It also helps explain what factors affect the decision-making process including the decision-making approach (rationality, bounded rationality, intuition); the types of problems and decisions (well-structured and programmed or unstructured and nonprogrammed); the decisionmaking conditions (certainty, risk, uncertainty); and the decision maker’s style (directive, analytic, conceptual, behavioral). Decision Making for Today’s World Explain how managers can make effective decisions in today’s world. List the six characteristics of an effective decision-making process. Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations. Managers can make effective decisions by understanding cultural differences in decision making; knowing when it’s time to call it quits; and by using an effective decision-making process. Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 3 of 11 The six characteristics of an effective decision-making process include (1) it focuses on what’s important; (2) it’s logical and consistent; (3) it acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends both analytical and intuitive approaches; (4) it requires only “enough” information as is necessary to resolve a problem; (5) it encourages and guides gathering relevant information and informed opinions; and (6) it’s straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible. The five habits of highly reliable organizations are (1) not being tricked by their successes; (2) deferring to experts on the front line; (3) letting unexpected circumstances provide the solution; (4) embracing complexity and; (5) anticipating, but also anticipating limits. Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 4 of 11 Chapter 5 – Key Terms decision A choice from two or more alternatives. decision-making process A set of eight steps that include identifying a problem, selecting an alternative, and evaluating the decision’s effectiveness. problem A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs. decision criteria Criteria that define what’s relevant in a decision. rational decision making Decision-making behavior where choices are consistent and value-maximizing within specified constraints. bounded rationality Decision-making behavior that’s rational, but limited (bounded) by an individual’s ability to process information. satisficing Accepting solutions that are “good enough.” escalation of commitment An increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. intuitive decision making Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. structured problems Straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems. programmed decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. procedure A series of interrelated sequential steps that can be used to respond to a well-structured problem. rule An explicit statement that tells managers what they can or cannot do. policy A guideline for making decisions. unstructured problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 5 of 11 nonprogrammed decisions A unique decision that requires a custom-made solution. certainty A situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known. risk A situation in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. uncertainty A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available. directive style A decision-making style characterized by low tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. analytic style A decision-making style characterized by a high tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. conceptual style A decision-making style characterized by a high tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. behavioral style A decision-making style characterized by a low tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. heuristics Rules of thumb that managers use to simplify decision making. business performance management (BPM) software IT software which provides key performance indicators to help managers monitor efficiency of projects and employees. Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 6 of 11 Deciding with groups Understanding Groups Define the different types of groups. Describe the five stages of group development. Formal groups are work groups defined by the organization’s structure that have designated work assignments and specific tasks. (See Exhibit 15-1 for a list of formal groups.) Informal groups are social in nature. The five stages of group development (see Exhibit 15-2) are as follows: forming (joining the group and defining the group’s purpose, structure, and leadership), storming (intragroup conflict), norming (close relationships develop and the group becomes cohesive), performing (performing the task at hand), and adjourning (group prepares to disband). Explaining Work Group Behavior Explain the major components that determine group performance and satisfaction. Discuss how roles, norms, conformity, status systems, group size, and group cohesiveness influence group behavior. Explain how group norms can both help and hurt an organization. Define groupthink and social loafing. Describe the relationships between group cohesiveness and productivity. Discuss how conflict management influences group behavior. Tell the advantages and disadvantages of group decision making. The major components that determine group performance and satisfaction (see Exhibit 15-3) are: the external conditions imposed on the group, group member resources, group structure, group processes, and group tasks. People play different roles in groups. These roles tend to either be task-oriented or member-oriented. Norms are standards or expectations that are accepted and shared by group members and dictate factors such as work output levels, absenteeism, promptness, Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 7 of 11 and amount of socializing on the job. Conformity is the pressure felt by members to behave according to the group. A group’s status system has to do with its grading, position, or ranking of certain people or positions within the group. Smaller groups are faster at completing tasks, but larger groups get better results. Group cohesiveness refers to the degree to which members are attracted to a group and share the group’s goals. Norms can help an organization because they can influence work expectations. However, that’s also the reason that norms can hurt an organization. Groupthink is when a group exerts extensive pressure on individuals to align their opinions to conform to others’ opinions. Social loafing is the tendency for an individual to expend less effort (loaf) when working in a group. When a highly cohesive group’s goals are aligned with organizational goals, it will experience a strong increase in productivity. However, if the group is not cohesive, it will experience only a moderate increase in productivity. If a highly cohesive group’s goals are not aligned with organizational goals, there’s a decrease in productivity. (See Exhibit 15-5.) Conflict is any perceived incompatible differences. Conflict and how it’s managed can influence group behavior. Relationship conflicts almost always are dysfunctional. Low levels of process conflict and low-to-moderate levels of task conflict can be functional. (See Exhibit 15-8.) When making decisions, groups tend to be more accurate and creative and have a higher degree of acceptance of the decision. However, groups are not as fast or efficient as individuals when making decisions. (See Exhibit 15-6.) Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 8 of 11 Creating Effective Teams Compare groups and teams. Explain why teams have become so popular in organizations. Describe the four most common types of teams. List the characteristics of effective teams. Work teams are different from work groups. (See Exhibit 15-10.) Work groups interact primarily to share information and to make decisions that help each group member individually do his or her job more efficiently and effectively. Work teams work intensely on a specific, common goal using their positive synergy, individual and mutual accountability, and complementary skills. Teams have become popular because teams typically outperform individuals when the tasks being done require multiple skills, judgment, and experience. The four most common types of teams are problem-solving teams, self-managed teams, cross-functional teams, and virtual teams. Effective teams have the following characteristics: clear goals, relevant skills, mutual trust, unified commitment, good communication, negotiating skills, appropriate leadership, internal support, and external support. (See Exhibit 15-11.) Current Challenges in Managing Teams Discuss the challenges of managing global teams. Explain the role of informal (social) networks in managing teams. Global teams face challenges from: group member resources, group structure (conformity, status, social loafing, and cohesiveness), group processes, and the manager’s role. (See Exhibit 15-12.). Social networks describe the patterns of informal connections among individuals within teams. These informal social relationships can hinder or help the team’s effectiveness. Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 9 of 11 Deciding with groups – Key Terms group Two or more interacting and interdependent individuals who come together to achieve specific goals. forming The first stage of group development in which people join the group and then define the group’s purpose, structure, and leadership. storming The second stage of group development which is characterized by intragroup conflict. norming The third stage of group development which is characterized by close relationships and cohesiveness. performing The fourth stage of group development when the group is fully functional. adjourning The final stage of group development for temporary groups during which group members are concerned with wrapping up activities rather than task performance. role Behavior patterns expected of someone occupying a given position in a social unit. norms Standards or expectations that are accepted and shared by a group’s members. groupthink When a group exerts extensive pressure on an individual to align his or her opinion with others’ opinions. status A prestige grading, position, or rank within a group. social loafing The tendency for individuals to expend less effort when working collectively than when working individually. group cohesiveness The degree to which group members are attracted to one another and share the group’s goals. conflict Perceived incompatible differences that result in interference or opposition. traditional view of conflict The view that all conflict is bad and must be avoided. human relations view of conflict Chapter 5_Decision-Making The view that conflict is a natural and inevitable outcome in any group. Page 10 of 11 interactionist view of conflict The view that some conflict is necessary for a group to perform effectively. functional conflicts Conflicts that support a group’s goals and improve its performance. dysfunctional conflicts Conflicts that prevent a group from achieving its goals. task conflict Conflicts over content and goals of the work. relationship conflict Conflict based on interpersonal relationships. process conflict Conflict over how work gets done. work teams Groups whose members work intensely on a specific, common goal using their positive synergy, individual and mutual accountability, and complementary skills. problem-solving team A team from the same department or functional area that’s involved in efforts to improve work activities or to solve specific problems. self-managed work team A type of work team that operates without a manager and is responsible for a complete work process or segment. cross-functional team A work team composed of individuals from various specialties. virtual team A type of work team that uses technology to link physically dispersed members in order to achieve a common goal. social network structure The patterns of informal connections among individuals within a group Chapter 5_Decision-Making Page 11 of 11