1.0 Abstract
Urbanization, Globalization & Industrialization is the world wide phenomenon.
This process are very rapid, the urban population of INDIA is likely to be 30 million in
2001 & 395 million by 2011 A.D. these high density communities, industries create
challenges in the provision of portable water supply, clean air , suitable temperature.
The industrial revolution followed by the temperate & arid countries, increases
the
pollution & added very high temperature. Hence it is important to recognize the impact
which urbanization & industrialization has on environment. One of the important impacts
of the GLOBAL WARMING
Global Warming is now used internationally to describe the increasing temperature
arising from the Green
House Effect, Industrial, Automobile exhaust, mining activities. Growth in Industry
Agriculture & Transportation since the Industrial revolution has produced additional
quantities of the natural green house gasses, CFC & other gasses, augmenting the thermal
blanket. During the past century,the atmospheric temperature has risen 1.1 of (0.6 oc) & sea
has risen several inches. Due to Global Warming melting of polar ice, with a resulting rise
in sea level & coastal flooding, description of drinking water supplies depend on snow
melts, profound changes in agriculture due to climate change, extinction of species as
global niches disappears; more frequent tropical storms; & increased incidence of tropical
diseases are taking place.
Improved automobile mileage reforestation & national support for transits are
relatively simpler adjustments that could significantly lower production of green house
gases. More aggressive adjustments include gradual world wide shift away from the use of
fossil fuels, the elimination of CFC & the slowing of deforestation by restructuring the
economy of developing nations.
Global Warming
1
2.0 What is Global Warming?
Global warming is the scientific evidence that temperatures of the near surface
Earth atmosphere are rising, and that "higher temperatures threaten dangerous
consequences [on planet Earth]: drought, disease, floods, lost ecosystems
Global warming refers to an average increase in the Earth's temperature, which in turn
causes changes in climate
While the term global warming is in common usage climate change is used as a broader
term to describe the effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
(although this term is also used by groups who want to downplay the negative connotations
of "global warming"). For example, in some locations the most significant effect of climate
change will be increased rainfall. (In SourceWatch the bulk of the material on this topic
will originate from the climate change )
Global warming is the observed increase in the average control of the earth’s atmospere
and oceans in recent decades, and its projected continuation. Models referenced by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are
likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100. [1] The
uncertainty in this range results from both the difficulty of predicting the volume of future
greenhouse gas emissions and uncertainty about climate sensitivity and feedback effects.
Global average near-surface atmospheric temperature rose 0.6 ± 0.2 °Celsius (1.1 ±
0.4 °Fahrenheit) in the 20th century. The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is
that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations",[1] which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by
increasing the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases are released by activities such as the
burning of fossil fuels, land clearing, and agriculture. Other phenomena such as solar
variation have had smaller but non-negligible effects on global temperature trends since
1950. [2]
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2
An increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes, including a rising sea
level and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation. These changes may increase
the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, heat
waves, hurricanes, and tornados. Other consequences include higher or lower agricultural
yields, glacier retreat, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions and increases in
the ranges of disease vectors. Warming is expected to affect the number and magnitude of
these events; however, it is difficult to connect particular events to global warming.
Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, even if no further greenhouse gases
were released after this date, warming (and sea level) would be expected to continue to rise
for more than a millenium, since CO2 has a long average atmospheric lifetime.
Terminology
The term "global warming" is a specific case of the more general term "climate change"
(which can also refer to "global cooling," such as occurs during ice ages). In principle,
"global warming" is neutral as to the period or causes, but in common usage, "global
warming" generally refers to recent warming, and implies a human influence. However, the
UNFCCC uses "climate change" for human-caused change, and "climate variability" for
other changes.[3] Some organizations use the term "anthropogenic climate change" for
human-induced changes.
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3
3.0 History of warming
Temperature record of the past 1000 years
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each
smoothed on a decadal scale. The unsmoothed, annual value for 2004 is also plotted for
reference.
Relative to the period 1860–1900, global temperatures on both land and sea have increased
by 0.75 °C (1.4 °F), according to the instrumental temperature record. Since 1979, land
temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C/decade
against 0.13 °C/decade (Smith, 2005). Temperatures in the lower troposphere have
increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C per decade since 1979, according to satellite
temperature measurements. Over the one or two thousand years before 1850, world
temperature is believed to have been relatively stable, with possibly regional fluctuations
such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.
Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest
year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late
1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.
Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Climatic
Research Unit concluded that 2005 was still only the second warmest year, behind
1998.[4][5]
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4
A number of temperature records are available based on different data sets with different
time frames. The longest perspective is available from various proxy records for recent
millennia; see temperature record of the past 1000 years for a discussion of these records
and their differences. An approximately global instrumental record of temperature near the
earth's surface begins in about 1860. Global observations of the atmosphere well above the
earth's surface using data from radiosondes began shortly after World War II. Satellite
temperature measurements of the tropospheric temperature date from 1979. The attribution
of recent climate change is clearest for the most recent period of the last 50 years, for
which the most detailed data are available.
Global Warming
5
4.0 Evidence of Global Warming
If the voices of future generations could be heard, they would plead for action on climate
change. The unborn children of tomorrow will bear the heavy burden of our indifference.
This graph below shows the record of global average temperatures as compiled by the
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Meteorological Office.
4.1 Carbon Dioxide Increasing in Atmosphere
The atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, have increased since preindustrial times from 280 part per million (ppm) to 377.5 ppm (2004 Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center ), a 34% increase. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the
atmosphere are the highest in 650,000 years. Carbon dioxide is a by-product of the burning
of fossil fuels, such as gasoline in an automobile or coal in a power plant generating
electricity.
4.2 Methane Also Increasing
Levels of atmospheric methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, have risen 145% in the last
100 years.
Methane is derived from sources such as rice paddies, bovine flatulence,
bacteria in bogs and fossil fuel production.
4.3 More Frequent Extreme Weather
The year 1999 was the fifth-warmest year on record since the mid-1800; 1998 being the
warmest year. According to Thomas Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center
(NOAA), the current pace of temperature rise is “consistent with a rate of 5.4 to 6.3
degrees Fahrenheit per century." By comparison, the world has warmed by 5 to 9 degrees
Fahrenheit since the depths of the last ice age, 18,000 to 20,000 years ago.
The potential for floods and droughts is increasing."....... the heating from increased
greenhouse gases enhances the hydrological cycle and increases the risk for stronger,
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6
longer-lasting or more intense droughts, and heavier rainfall events and flooding, even if
these phenomena occur for natural reasons. Evidence, although circumstantial, is
widespread across the United States. Examples include the intense drought in the central
southern U.S in 1996, Midwest flooding in spring of 1995 and extensive flooding
throughout the Mississippi Basin in 1993 even as drought occurred in the Carolinas,
extreme flood events in winters of 1992-93 and 1994-95 in California but droughts in other
years (e.g, 1986-87 and 1987-88 winters)," says Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National
Oceanic
and
Atmospheric
Administration
(NOAA).
Ohio State University researcher Lonnie Thompson on global warming and
retreating glaciers
In southern Peru the rate of melting of the Qori Kalis glacier during the 8 year period 1983
to 1991 was 3 times the pace of the previous 20 years, 1963 to 1983. "By the time we
probably know what they are doing, it will be far too late to worry about it because they are
going to be like galloping glaciers," says Ellen Mosley Thompson, climate expert at Ohio
State University. The Qori Kalis is receding at about two feet per day. Sitting beside the
glacier, one could witness the melting hour by hour.
In a study that appeared in the journal, Science, September 15, 2000, a team led by Lonnie
G. Thompson, including Ellen Mosley-Thompson, both of Ohio State, analyzed ice cores
that came from deep within a glacier more than 20,000 feet high in the Himalayas. The
results of their research showed that the past 100 years have been the hottest period in
1,000 years high in the Himalayas. Also their research supports other studies that
demonstrated a dramatic decline in water levels of glacier-fed rivers, and that the high
elevations are warming much more than the global average (one degree F). MosleyThompson says, "For these rivers to continue to flow year-round, they have to be fed by ice
in the high mountains. The question then is where will the river flow come from during the
dry season?"
Global Warming
7
Greenland's glaciers are moving more rapidly to the sea, caused, perhaps, by melt water
lubricating the base of the glaciers. See below for another look at dwindling ice mass in
Greenland.
The Tasman Glacier in New Zealand has thinned by more than 100 meters in the past
century. Glaciers in New Zealand have shrunk about 26% between 1890 and 1998.
The melting of the Gangotri Glacier in India is accelerating with an average rate of retreat
of 30 meters annually. The rate between 1935 and 1990 was 18 meters per year and 7
meters annually between 1842 and 1935.
A glacier from which Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay set out to conquer Mount
Everest nearly 50 years ago has retreated three miles up the mountain due to global
warming. The head of the Nepal Mountaineering Association, Tashi Jangbu Sherpa, says "
that Hillary and Tenzing would now have to walk two hours to find the edge of the glacier
which was close to their original base camp."
Portage Glacier in the Chugach National Forest, south of Anchorage, is another casualty of
climate change, say scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. These researchers
found that melting glaciers are responsible for at least 9 percent of the global sea-level rise
over the past century.
4.4 Melting Arctic Sea Ice
The Arctic, with an area about the size of the United States, is seeing average temperatures
similar to the Antarctic, almost 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the planet as a whole
Arctic sea ice has shrunk by 250 million acres -- an area the size of California, Maryland
and Texas combined.
In a N.Y Times article (Nov. 17, 1999) it was reported that scientists have discovered that
from 1993 through 1997 average Arctic sea ice thickness was six feet. This represents a
significant reduction in Arctic sea ice from 1958 through 1976 when average thickness
measured 10 feet. This means that in less than 30 years, there has been a 40% loss of arctic
Global Warming
8
sea ice. In a Washington Post article (Dec. 3, 1999) it was noted that in the Arctic, sea ice
is shrinking at a rate of 14,000 square miles annually, an area larger than Maryland and
Delaware combined.
According to a report by Norwegian scientists, the arctic sea ice in about 50 years could
disappear entirely each summer. Researchers at the Nansen Environmental and Remote
Sensing Center based their predictions on satellite pictures. These pictures showed that the
Arctic winter icescapes decreased by 6% (a Texas-size area) during the last 20 years.
4.5 Melting Antarctic Sea Ice
The Antarctic Peninsula has seen an increase in average temperatures of almost 5 degrees
Fahrenheit in the last 50 years. Heavy sea ice has been the norm in the Antarctic, but in
the 1990's sea ice disintegration has begun, notes Robin Ross, a biological oceanographer
with the University of California at Santa Barbara. During the year 1998, the Antarctic
displayed a record low in winter sea ice.
4.6 Greenland's Ice Sheet Melting
In a recent study by researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center shows that
Greenland's ice sheet, about 8% of the Earth's grounded ice (Antarctica possessing 91% of
land ice), is losing ice mass. A NASA high-tech aerial survey shows that more than 11
cubic miles of ice is melting along Greenland's coasts yearly, accounting for 7% of the
annual global sea level rise. Measurements over the last century suggest that sea level has
risen 9 inches, enough to cause flooding in low-lying areas, when a storm occurs. Sea level
increase could worsen, if the present trend continues, says William Krabill, lead author of
the NASA study.
4.7 Tropical Diseases Spreading
A recent study by New Zealand doctors, researchers at the Wellington School of
Medicine's public health department said outbreaks of dengue fever in South Pacific
islands are directly related to global warming. Global Warming is projected to
Global Warming
9
significantly increase the range conducive to the transmission of both dengue and yellow
fevers.
4.8
Oceans
Devastating
Warming
loss
of
With
coral
in
Coral
Bleaching
&
the
Caribbean
-
Disintegration
March,
2006
In March, 2006 researchers discovered devastating loss of coral in the Caribbean off
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. "It's an unprecedented die-off," said National Park
Service fisheries biologist Jeff Miller, who last week checked 40 official monitoring
stations in the Virgin Islands. "The mortality that we’re seeing now is of the extremely
slow-growing reef-building corals. These are corals that are the foundation of the reef ...
We're talking colonies that were here when Columbus came by have died in the past three
to four months."...............Miller noted that some of the devastated coral can never be
replaced because it only grows the width of one dime each year.
4.9 A Doubling of Atmospheric CO2 will Stunt Coral Growth
The Earth is on a trajectory to double its atmospheric carbon dioxide (above 700 ppm) by
the year 2065. Scientists say that this will result in a 30% drop in the amount of calcium
that tropical oceans can retain, whereby coral growth would be stunted by the lack of
calcium in these ocean waters. This would threaten the capability of coral to repair itself in
the event of storm damage and from coral-chewing predators...............Robert W.
Buddemeier, senior chemist with the Kansas Geological Survey says, "There is growing
agreement that doubling CO2 in the atmosphere means a 15% decline in the coral
population."
4.10 Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium October 2000
In October, 2000 at the Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium, held on the island of
Bali, researchers warned that more than 25% of the world's coral reefs have been destroyed
by pollution and global warming. Scientists emphasized that most of the damage to coral is
inflicted by global warming through coral bleaching, the result of higher water
temperatures heating the coral. The warming waters stress the coral, which then expels the
microscopic plants or algae that give the coral color and nourishes it. Most of the
remaining coral could be dead in 20 years, if global warming and pollution continue. Coral
Global Warming
10
reefs around the Maldives and Seychelles islands in the Indian Ocean have taken the brunt
of warming seas, as 90% of these corals have been killed over the past two years. Some of
the coral reefs, long described as undersea rainforests, home to marine ecosystems that
sustain thousands of species of fish and other marine life, have been alive for up to 2.5
million years.
At the Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium, oceanographers said that the El Nino
weather pattern two years ago, that led to an increase in ocean water temperature by up to 6
degrees Fahrenheit, did heavy damage to coral reefs. Australian scientist Ove HoeghGuldberg warns that in 20 years coral will be sitting in a "hot soup" and will not survive.
Millions of people depend on coral for income ($400 billion annually in fishing and
tourism revenue) and food.
4.11
World's
Coral
Reefs
Will
be
Dead
Within
50Years
According to Rupert Ormond, a marine biologist from Glasgow University, the world's
coral reefs will be dead within 50 years because of global warming, and there is nothing we
can do to save them, a scientist warned on September 5, 2001. In a conference held by the
British Association for the Advancement of Science, he said, "It is hard to avoid the
conclusion that most coral in most areas will be lost........We are looking at a loss which is
equivalent to the tropical rain forests." He also mentioned that if humans were to stop
pumping out greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, tomorrow in a bid to halt the
process, it would still be too late to save the reefs. "I don't know what can be done, given
that there's a 50-year time lag between trying to limit carbon dioxide levels and any effect
on ocean temperature............"We are looking at a gradual running down of the whole
system. Over time, the diversity of coral fish will die," Ormond said. He also said that the
only cause for optimism was that new coral reefs could start to emerge in colder waters
such as the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Humankind will also suffer
directly as the dead reefs are eroded and shorelines that have been protected for the last
10,000
years
are
now
vulnerable
without
their
natural
defenses.
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11
5.0 Causes
Carbon dioxide during the last 400,000 years and the rapid rise since the Industrial
Revolution; changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, known as Milankovitch cycles, are
believed to be the pacemaker of the 100,000 year ice age cycle.
The climate system varies both through natural, "internal" processes as well as in response
to variations in external "forcing" from both human and non-human causes, including solar
activity, volcanic emissions, variations in the earth's orbit ("orbital forcing") and
greenhouse gases. Climatologists agree that the earth has warmed recently. The detailed
causes of this change remain an active field of research, but the scientific consensus
identifies greenhouse gases as the primary cause of the recent warming. Outside the
scientific community, however, this conclusion can be controversial.
Adding carbon dioxide (CO2) or methane (CH4) to Earth's atmosphere, with no other
changes, will make the planet's surface warmer; greenhouse gases create a natural
greenhouse effect without which temperatures on Earth would be an estimated 30 °C
(54 °F) lower, and the Earth uninhabitable. It is therefore not correct to say that there is a
debate between those who "believe in" and "oppose" the theory that adding carbon dioxide
or methane to the Earth's atmosphere will, absent any mitigating actions or effects, result in
warmer surface temperatures on Earth. Rather, the debate is about what the net effect of the
Global Warming
12
addition of carbon dioxide and methane will be, when allowing for compounding or
mitigating factors.
One example of an important feedback process is ice-albedo feedback [2]. The increased
CO2 in the atmosphere warms the Earth's surface and leads to melting of ice near the poles.
As the ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on
average less reflective than ice, and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more
warming, which in turn causes more melting, and the cycle continues.
Due to the thermal inertia of the earth's oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects,
the Earth's current climate is not in equilibrium with the forcing imposed by increased
greenhouse gases. Climate commitment studies indicate that, even if greenhouse gases
were stabilized at present day levels, a further warming of perhaps 0.5 °C to 1.0 °C (0.9–
1.8 °F) would still occur.
5.1 Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Plots of atmospheric Carbon dioxide and global temperature during the last 650,000 years.
Greenhouse gases are transparent to shortwave radiation from the sun, the main source of
heat on the Earth. However, they absorb some of the longer infrared radiation emitted by
the Earth, thereby reducing radiational cooling and hence raising the temperature of the
Earth. How much they warm the world by is shown in their global warming potential. The
Global Warming
13
measure of the response to increased GHGs, and other anthropogenic and natural climate
forcings is climate sensitivity. It is found by observational and model studies.[6] This
sensitivity is usually expressed in terms of the temperature response expected from a
doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. The current literature estimates sensitivity in the range
1.5-4.5 °C (2.7-8.1 °F).
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have increased by 31% and
149% respectively above pre-industrial levels since 1750. This is considerably higher than
at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been
extracted from ice cores. From less direct geological evidence it is believed that carbon
dioxide values this high were last attained 40 million years ago
[citation needed]
. About three-
quarters of the anthropogenic (man-made) emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere
during the past 20 years are due to fossil fuel burning. The rest of the anthropogenic
emissions are predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation.[7]
The longest continuous instrumental measurement of carbon dioxide mixing ratios began in
1958 at Mauna Loa. Since then, the annually averaged value has increased monotonically
by approximately 21% from the initial reading of 315 ppmv, as shown by the Keeling
curve, to over 380 ppmv in 2006.[8][9] The monthly CO2 measurements display small
seasonal oscillations in an overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum is reached during
the northern hemisphere's late spring, and declines during the northern hemisphere growing
season as plants remove some CO2 from the atmosphere.
Methane, the primary constituent of natural gas, enters the atmosphere both from biological
production and leaks from natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure. Some biological
sources are natural, such as termites or forests,[10][11][12] but others have been increased or
created by agricultural activities such as the cultivation of rice paddies.[13] Recent evidence
indicates that methane concentrations have begun to stabilize, perhaps due to reductions in
leakage from fuel transmission and storage facilities.[14]
Future carbon dioxide levels are expected to continue rising due to ongoing fossil fuel
usage. The rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and
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14
natural developments. The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range
of future carbon dioxide scenarios,[15] ranging from 541 to 970 parts per million by the year
2100. Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach this level and continue emissions past
2100, if coal and tar sands are extensively used.
Carbon sink ecosystems are being degraded by pollutants. Degradation of major carbon
sinks results in higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
Anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases broken down by sector for the year 2000.
Globally, the majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions arise from fuel
combustion. The remainder is accounted for largely by "fugitive fuel" (fuel consumed in
the production and transport of fuel), emissions from industrial processes (excluding fuel
combustion), and agriculture: these contributed 5.8%, 5.2% and 3.3% respectively in 1990.
Current figures are broadly comparable.[18] Around 17% of emissions are accounted for by
the combustion of fuel for the generation of electricity. A small percentage of emissions
come from natural and anthropogenic biological sources, with approximately 6.3% derived
from agriculturally produced methane and nitrous oxide.
Positive feedback effects, such as the expected release of methane from the melting of
permafrost peat bogs in Siberia (possibly up to 70,000 million tonnes), may lead to
Global Warming
15
significant additional sources of greenhouse gas emissions.[19] Note that the anthropogenic
emissions of other pollutants—notably sulfate aerosols—exert a cooling effect; this
partially accounts for the plateau/cooling seen in the temperature record in the middle of
the twentieth century,[20] though this may also be due to intervening natural cycles.
5.2 Alternative TheoryThe solar variation theory
30 years of solar variability.
Modeling studies reported in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) did not
find that changes in solar forcing were needed in order to explain the climate record for the
last four or five decades [6]. These studies found that volcanic and solar forcings may
account for half of the temperature variations prior to 1950, but the net effect of such
natural forcings has been roughly neutral since then. In particular, the change in climate
forcing from greenhouse gases since 1750 was estimated to be eight times larger than the
change in forcing due to increasing solar activity over the same period.
Since the TAR, some studies (Lean et al., 2002, Wang et al., 2005) have suggested
that changes in irradiance since pre-industrial times are less by a factor of 3 to 4 than in the
reconstructions used in the TAR (e.g. Hoyt and Schatten, 1993, Lean, 2000.). Other
researchers (e.g. Stott et al. 2003) believe that the effect of solar forcing is being
underestimated and propose that solar forcing accounts for 16% or 36% of recent
greenhouse warming. Others (e.g. Marsh and Svensmark 2000) have proposed that
feedback from clouds or other processes enhance the direct effect of solar variation, which
Global Warming
16
if true would also suggest that the effect of solar variability was being underestimated. In
general the level of scientific understanding of the contribution of variations in solar
irradiance to historical climate changes is "very low".
The present level of solar activity is historically high. Solanki et al. (2004)
suggest that solar activity for the last 60 to 70 years may be at its highest level in 8,000
years; Muscheler et al. disagree, suggesting that other comparably high levels of activity
have occurred several times in the last few thousand years. Solanki concluded based on
their analysis that there is a 92% probability that solar activity will decrease over the next
50 years. In addition, researchers at Duke University (2005) have found that 10–30% of the
warming over the last two decades may be due to increased solar output. In a review of
existing literature, Foukal et al. (2006) determined both that the variations in solar output
were too small to have contributed appreciably to global warming since the mid-1970s and
that there was no evidence of a net increase in brightness during this period.
5.3 Some More Causes of Global Warming
As human-caused biodiversity loss and climate disruption gain ground, we need to keep
our sights clear and understand that the measure of a threat is not a matter of whether it is
made on purpose, but of how much loss it may cause. It's an ancient habit to go after those
we perceive to be evil because they intended to do harm. It's harder, but more effective, to
"go after," meaning to more effectively educate and socialize, those vastly larger numbers
of our fellow humans who are not evil, but whose behavior may in fact be far more
destructive in the long run."
Carbon Dioxide from Power Plants
In 2002 about 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions stem from the burning of fossil fuels
for the purpose of electricity generation. Coal accounts for 93 percent of the emissions
from the electric utility industry.
Coal emits around 1.7 times as much carbon per unit of energy when burned as does
natural gas and 1.25 times as much as oil. Natural gas gives off 50% of the carbon dioxide,
the principal greenhouse gas, released by coal and 25% less carbon dioxide than oil, for the
Global Warming
17
same amount of energy produced. Coal contains about 80 percent more carbon per unit of
energy than gas does, and oil contains about 40 percent more. For the typical U.S.
household, a metric ton of carbon equals about 10,000 miles of driving at 25 miles per
gallon of gasoline or about one year of home heating using a natural gas-fired furnace or
about four months of electricity from coal-fired generation.
Carbon Dioxide Emitted from Cars
About 20% of U.S carbon dioxide emissions comes from the burning of gasoline in
internal-combustion engines of cars and light trucks (minivans, sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and jeeps).US Emissions Inventory 2004 Vehicles with poor gas mileage
contribute the most to global warming. For example, according to the E.P.A's 2000 Fuel
Economy Guide, a new Dodge Durango sports utility vehicle (with a 5.9 liter engine) that
gets 12 miles per gallon in the city will emit an estimated 800 pounds of carbon dioxide
over a distance of 500 city miles. In other words for each gallon of gas a vehicle consumes,
19.6 pounds of carbon dioxide are emitted into the air. A new Honda Insight that gets 61
miles to the gallon will only emit about 161 pounds of carbon dioxide over the same
distance of 500 city miles. Sports utility vehicles were built for rough terrain, off road
driving in mountains and deserts. When they are used for city driving, they are so much
overkill to the environment. If one has to have a large vehicle for their family, station
wagons are an intelligent choice for city driving, especially since their price is about half
that of a sports utility. Inasmuch as SUV's have a narrow wheel base in respect to their
higher silhouette, they are four times as likely as cars to rollover in an accident.
The United States is the largest consumer of oil, using 20.4 million barrels per day. In his
debate with former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, during the 2000 Presidential
campaign, Senator Joseph Lieberman said, "If we can get 3 miles more per gallon from our
cars, we'll save 1 million barrels of oil a day, which is exactly what the (Arctic National
Wildlife) Refuge at its best in Alaska would produce."
Global Warming
18
If car manufacturers were to increase their fleets' average gas mileage about 3 miles per
gallon, this country could save a million barrels of oil every day, while US drivers would
save $25 billion in fuel costs annually.
Carbon Dioxide from Trucks
About another 13% of U.S carbon dioxide emissions comes from trucks used mostly for
commercial purposes.
Carbon Dioxide from Airplanes
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that aviation causes 3.5
percent of global warming, and that the figure could rise to 15 percent by 2050.
Carbon Dioxide from Buildings
Buildings structure account for about 12% of carbon dioxide emissions.
Methane
While carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, methane is second most important.
According
to
the
IPCC,
Methane
is
more
than
20
times
as
effective as CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Levels of atmospheric methane have
risen 145% in the last 100 years. Methane is derived from sources such as rice paddies,
bovine flatulence, bacteria in bogs and fossil fuel production. Most of the world’s rice, and
all of the rice in the United States, is grown on flooded fields. When fields are flooded,
anaerobic conditions develop and the organic matter in the soil decomposes, releasing CH4
to the atmosphere, primarily through the rice plants.
Nitrous oxide
Another greenhouse gas is Nitrous oxide (N2O), a colorless, non-flammable gas with a
sweetish odour, commonly known as "laughing gas", and sometimes used as an
unaesthetic. Nitrous oxide is naturally produced by oceans and rainforests. Man-made
sources of nitrous oxide include nylon and nitric acid production, the use of fertilisers in
Global Warming
19
agriculture, cars with catalytic converters and the burning of organic matter. Nitrous oxide
is broken down in the atmosphere by chemical reactions that involve sunlight.
Deforestation
After carbon emissions caused by humans, deforestation is the second principle cause of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Deforestation is responsible for 25% of all carbon emissions
entering the atmosphere, by the burning and cutting of about 34 million acres of trees each
year. We are losing millions of acres of rainforests each year, the equivalent in area to the
size of Italy. The destroying of tropical forests alone is throwing hundreds of millions of
tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. We are also losing temperate forests.
The temperate forests of the world account for an absorption rate of 2 billion tons of carbon
annually. In the temperate forests of Siberia alone, the earth is losing 10 million acres per
year.
City Gridlock
Cities are tolerating gridlock. In 1996 according to an annual study by traffic engineers [as
reported in the San Francisco Chronicle December 10, 1996] from Texas A and M
University, it was found that drivers in Los Angeles and New York City alone wasted 600
million gallons of gas annually while just sitting in traffic. The 600 million gallons of gas
translates to about 7.5 million tons of carbon dioxide in just those two cities.
Global Warming
20
6.0 Effects of global warming
Attributed and Expected effects
Global glacial mass balance in the last fifty years, reported to the WGMS and the NSIDC.
The increased downward trend in the late 1980s is symptomatic of the increased rate and
number of retreating glaciers.
Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are already being attributed at
least in part to global warming. Glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as of the Larsen
Ice Shelf , sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, increased intensity and frequency of
hurricanes and extreme weather events, are being attributed at least in part to global
warming. While changes are expected for overall patterns, intensity, and frequencies, it is
difficult or impossible to attribute specific events (such as Hurricane Katrina) to global
warming.
Some anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 mm by 2100, repercussions to
agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer,
increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of
ocean pH, the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, and mass extinction
events.
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21
The extent and probability of these consequences is a matter of considerable uncertainty. A
summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report of the
IPCC Working Group II
6.1 Mitigation
The Energy Information Administration predicts world energy and fossil fuel usage will
rise in the next decades.
The consensus among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase
has led nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement actions to try to curtail
global warming. Some of the strategies that have been proposed for mitigation of global
warming include development of new technologies; carbon offsets; renewable energy such
as biodiesel, wind power, and solar power; nuclear power; electric or hybrid automobiles;
fuel cells; energy conservation; carbon taxes; improving natural carbon dioxide sinks;
deliberate production of sulfate aerosols, which produce a cooling effect on the Earth;
population control; and carbon capture and storage. Many environmental groups encourage
individual action against global warming, often aimed at the consumer, and there has been
business action on climate change.
The world's primary international agreement on combating global warming is the Kyoto
Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is an amendment to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries that ratify this protocol commit to
reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in
emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.
6.2 Effects on Ecosystem
Both primary and industry effects on global warming-such as higher temperature, lessened
snow cover, rising see level and weather changes- may influence not only human activities
but also ecosystem. Some spacies may be forced out of there habitats because of changing
conditions, while other may flourish.
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22
Ocean ph is lowering as a result of increased carban dioxide level. Lowering of ocean ph
along with.
6.3 Impact on Glaciers
Global glacing mass balance in the last 50 years, reported to thr W.G.M.S. and the NSIDC.
The increased rate and number of rate and number of retreating glaciers.Global Warming
has lead to negative mass balance causesing glacier mass balance causeing glacier retreat
around the world. Orelemans showed decline in 142 of 144 mountain glacier with records
from 1900-1980.
6.4 Spread of Disease
One of the out breaks of vibro parahaemolyticus, gastro entries has been attributed to
generally rising ocean temp where infected osters were harvested in Prince Willium sound.
Alaska in 2005. Before this the northern most reported risk of such infection was in British
Columbia 1000 km to the south.
Global Warming may exted the range of vectors conveying infectious diseases such as
maleria. A warmer envornment boosts are reproduction rate of mosqutos and number of
boold meals they takes prolong theire breeding season and shortens the maturation period
for the microbes they disperse. Global Warming has been implicated in the recent spread to
the north mediterrene region of bluetongue disease in domesticcated ruminants asssociated
whith mite bites(perse 2005). Hantavirus infections criman cango hermorrhagic fever,
tularemia and rabies increased in wide area of Russia during 2005-2005 . This was
associted with a papulation explosion of rodent and their predetors but may be partialy
blamed on berakdowns in govermental vaccination and rodent control program.
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23
7.0 Climate models
Global climate model
Calculations of global warming from a range of climate models under the SRES A2
emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions.
The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the
HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth
and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to
3.0 °C (5.4 °F)
Scientists have studied global warming with computer models of the climate (see below).
Before the scientific community accepts a climate model, it has to be validated against
observed climate variations. As of 2006, models with sufficiently high resolution are able
Global Warming
24
to successfully simulate summer and winter differences, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and
El Niño. All validated current models predict that the net effect of adding greenhouse gases
will be a warmer climate in the future. However, even when the same assumptions of fossil
fuel consumption and CO2 emission are used, the amount of predicted warming varies
between models and there still remains a considerable range of climate sensitivity predicted
by the models which survive these tests. Part of the technical summary of the IPCC TAR
includes a recognition of the need to quantify this uncertainty: "In climate research and
modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear system, and
therefore that the prediction of a specific future climate is not possible. Rather the focus
must be on the probability distribution of the system's possible future states by the
generation of ensembles of model solutions." An example of a study which aims to do this
is the Climateprediction.net project; their methodology is to investigate the range of climate
sensitivities predicted for the 21st century by those models which have first been shown to
give a reasonable simulation of late 20th century climate change.
As noted above, climate models have been used by the IPCC to anticipate a warming of
1.4 °C to 5.8 °C (2.5 °F–10.4 °F) between 1990 and 2100. They have also been used to
help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to
those that the models predict from various natural and human derived forcing factors. In
addition to having their own characteristic climate sensitivity, models have also been used
to derive independent assessments of climate sensitivity.
Climate models can produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes
over the last century. These models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that
occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects;
however, they suggest that the warming since 1975 is dominated by man-made greenhouse
gas emissions. Adding simulation of the carbon cycle to the models generally shows a
positive feedback, though this response is uncertain (under the A2 SRES scenario,
responses vary between an extra 20 and 200 ppm of CO2). Some observational studies also
show a positive feedback.
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25
Uncertainties in the representation of clouds are a dominant source of uncertainty in
existing models, despite clear progress in modeling of clouds. There is also an ongoing
discussion as to whether climate models are neglecting important indirect and feedback
effects of solar variability. Further, all such models are limited by available computational
power, so that they may overlook changes related to small-scale processes and weather
(e.g. storm systems, hurricanes). However, despite these and other limitations, the IPCC
considered climate models "to be suitable tools to provide useful projections of future
climates".
In December, 2005 Bellouin et al. suggested in Nature that the reflectivity effect of
airborne pollutants was about double that previously expected, and that therefore some
global warming was being masked. If supported by further studies, this would imply that
existing models under-predict future global warming.
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26
8.0 Other related issues
Ocean acidification
Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans
. Unfortunately, carbon dioxide gas dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form
carbonic acid resulting in ocean acidification. Since biosystems are adapted to a narrow
range of pH this is a serious concern directly driven by increased atmospheric CO2 and not
global warming.
8.1 Relationship to ozone depletion
Ozone depletion
Although they are often interlinked in the mass media, the connection between global
warming and ozone depletion is not strong. There are five areas of linkage:

The same carbon dioxide radiative forcing that produces near-surface global
warming is expected (perhaps somewhat surprisingly) to cool the stratosphere. This,
in turn, would lead to a relative increase in ozone depletion and the frequency of
ozone holes.

Conversely, ozone depletion represents a radiative forcing of the climate system.
There are two opposed effects: 1) reduced ozone allows more solar radiation to
penetrate, thus warming the troposphere instead of the stratosphere. 2) The resulting
colder stratosphere emits less long-wave radiation down to the troposphere, thus
having a cooling effect. Overall, the cooling dominates: the IPCC concludes that
observed stratospheric O3 losses over the past two decades have caused a negative
forcing of the surface-troposphere system of about −0.15 ± 0.10 W/m².

One of the strongest predictions of the greenhouse effect theory is that the
stratosphere will cool. Although this cooling has been observed, it is not trivial to
separate the effects of changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases and ozone
depletion since both will lead to cooling. However, this can be done by numerical
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27
stratospheric modeling. Results from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory show that above 20 km, the greenhouse gases dominate the cooling.

Ozone
depleting
chemicals
are
also
greenhouse
gases,
representing
0.34 ±0.03 W/m², or about 14% of the total radiative forcing from well-mixed
greenhouse gases.

Decreased ozone leads to an increase in ultraviolet levels. Ultraviolet radiation may
be responsible for the death of ocean algae, which operate as a carbon dioxide sink
in the ocean. Increased UV, therefore, may lead to a decrease in carbon dioxide
uptake, thereby raising global carbon dioxide levels.
8.2 Relationship to global dimming
Global dimming
Some scientists now consider that the effects of global dimming (the reduction in sunlight
reaching the surface of the planet, possibly due to aerosols) may have masked some of the
effect of global warming[citation needed]. If this is so, the indirect aerosol effect is stronger than
previously believed, which would imply that the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases is
also stronger.
8.3 Pre-human global warming
The Earth has experienced natural global warming and cooling many times in the past, and
can offer useful insights into present processes. It is thought by some geologists[citation needed]
that a rapid buildup of greenhouse gases caused the Earth to experience global warming in
the early Jurassic period, with average temperatures rising by 5 °C (9.0 °F). Research by
the Open University published in Geology (32: 157–160, 2004) indicates that this caused
the rate of rock weathering to increase by 400%. As such weathering locks away carbon in
calcite and dolomite, carbon dioxide levels dropped back to normal over roughly the next
150,000 years.
Sudden releases of methane from clathrate compounds (the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis)
have been hypothesized as a cause for other past global warming events, including the
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28
Permian-Triassic extinction event and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. However,
warming at the end of the last glacial period is thought not to be due to methane release.
Instead, natural variations in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles) are believed to have
triggered the retreat of ice sheets by changing the amount of solar radiation received at high
latitude and led to deglaciation.
The greenhouse effect is also invoked to explain how the Earth made it out of the Snowball
Earth period 600 million years ago. During this period all silicate rocks were covered by
ice, thereby preventing them from combining with atmospheric carbon dioxide. The
atmospheric carbon dioxide level gradually increased until it reached a level that could
have been as much as 350 times the current level. At this point temperatures were raised
enough to melt the ice, even though the reflective ice surfaces had been reflecting most
sunlight back into space. Increased amounts of rainfall would quickly wash the carbon
dioxide out of the atmosphere, and thick layers of abiotic carbonate sediment have been
found on top of the glacial rocks from this period.
Using paleoclimate data for the last 500 million years Veizer et al. (2000, Nature 408, pp.
698–701) concluded that long-term temperature variations are only weakly related to
carbon dioxide variations. Most paleoclimatologists believe this is because other factors,
such as continental drift and mountain building have larger effects in determining very long
term climate. However, Shaviv and Veizer (2003,) proposed that the biggest long-term
influence on temperature is actually the solar system's motion around the galaxy, and the
ways in which this influences the atmosphere by altering the flux of cosmic rays received
by the Earth. Afterwards, they argued that over geologic times a change in carbon dioxide
concentrations comparable to doubling pre-industrial levels, only results in about 0.75 °C
(1.3 °F) warming rather than the usual 1.5–4.5 °C (2.7–8.1 °F) reported by climate models.
They acknowledge (Shaviv and Veizer 2004) however that this conclusion may only be
valid on multi-million year time scales when glacial and geological feedback have had a
chance to establish themselves. Rahmstorf et al. 2004 argue that Shaviv and Veizer
arbitrarily tuned their data, and that their conclusions are unreliable.
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29
8.4Pre-industrial global warming
Paleoclimatologist William Ruddiman has argued [36] that human influence on the global
climate began around 8,000 years ago with the start of forest clearing to provide land for
agriculture and 5,000 years ago with the start of Asian rice irrigation. He contends that
forest clearing explains the rise in carbon dioxide levels in the current interglacial that
started 8,000 years ago, contrasting with the decline in carbon dioxide levels seen in the
previous three interglacials. He further contends that the spread of rice irrigation explains
the breakdown in the last 5,000 years of the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere
solar radiation and global methane levels, which had been maintained over at least the last
eleven 22,000-year cycles. Ruddiman argues that without these effects, the Earth would be
nearly 2 °C cooler and "well on the way" to a new ice age. Ruddiman's interpretation of the
historical record, with respect to the methane data, has been disputed.
9.0 The Agreement
The Kyoto Protocol
There is a lengthy history of governmental negotiations leading up to the
crafting of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. In 1972, the first World Summit was
convened in Stockholm Sweden, at which time governmental leaders declared the
intention of reconvening every ten years in order to reassess the health of the
planet. The 1982 summit held in Nairobi, Kenya was such a dismal failure, though
(due to tensions between the Soviets and Western governments), that it was
never considered to have been a true "Earth Summit," and it was not until 1992
that the Second Earth Summit was convened in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It was at
this summit that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
was finalized for ratification.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
of 1992
During the 1980's, prior to the 1992 Second Earth Summit, attention was
being paid to the possibility that climate change was under way as a result of
human activities, and in 1987, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
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30
Change was formed by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "to assess the available
scientific, technical and socio-economic information in the field of climate change."
In 1990, the first report of the IPCC was released. It called for immediate action
to avoid the effects of a warming climate. This report was supported by
representatives at the Second World Climate Conference which occurred later that
same year. Immediate negotiation of a framework convention on climate change
was called for by the representatives of this second climate conference. The UN
General Assembly created a committee to draft a treaty for the Second Earth
Summit in Rio de Janeiro. That treaty, now known as the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was subsequently
accepted and signed by more than 150 nations represented at the Rio Conference.
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC was: "Stabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system." It stated further that "such a
level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to climate change and to insure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner."
Countries ratifying the convention agreed:
1. To develop programs to slow climate change
2. To share technology and cooperate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
3. To develop a greenhouse gas inventory listing national sources and sinks
At the Second Earth Summit in Rio, it was generally agreed that the
responsibility falls upon the developed nations to lead the fight against climate
change, as they are largely responsible for the current concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The original target for emission reductions
that was generally accepted in 1992 was that the developed nations should, at a
minimum, seek to return to 1990 levels of emissions by the year 2000.
Additionally, developed nations should provide financial and technological aid and
assistance to the developing nations to produce inventories and work toward more
efficient energy use.
The parties to the Framework Convention agreed to meet annually in order to
develop realistic mechanisms to meet the goals of the Convention; the first
meeting, or "Conference of the Parties" (COP), was held in 1995 in Rome, Italy
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(COP1), the second (COP2) in Geneva, Switzerland, and the third Conference of
the Parties (COP3) was scheduled to be held in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 to implement
legally binding agreements on greenhouse gas emissions.
The Dilemma of Equitable Emissions Reductions
There are inherent conflicts of interest related to the issue of climate change.
Traditional points of digression between developed and developing nations of the
world become overwhelmingly apparent during climate change negotiations. The
developed world has a relatively high standard of living in comparison to the
developing world. The developed world is largely responsible for the current
dangerous levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, yet the developing
world will likely be hit the hardest by the outcomes of climate change.
Concern about the rates of population growth and future industrial growth in
developing nations has caused industrialized nations to demand that developing
nations be bound by any agreement on emissions reductions. The developing
nations argue that they don't possess the economic or technological resources to
buy into an agreement yet. They see the demands of the developed nations as an
attempt to stifle their economic and industrial growth, while they are desperately
striving for a higher standard of living and a better life. They ask why they should
be responsible for remediating a mess they did not create.
In the United States, reservations about the lack of commitment by
developing nations led to the passage of the non-binding Byrd-Hagel Resolution
the U.S. Congress in early 1997. The resolution had two main points:
1. The U.S. will not enter into an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions that will be detrimental to the economy of the U.S.
2. The U.S. will not enter into an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions that does not require "meaningful involvement" on the part of
developing nations.
While this resolution was an effort to safeguard U.S. interests, it became a
significant psychological and legal impediment to stringent restrictions on
greenhouse gas emissions. Such obvious reservations about emissions reductions
on the part of the world's richest and most powerful nation did not foster optimism
about the likelihood of an aggressive international agreement to curb climate
change. While the Clinton administration would ultimately send a delegation to
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help negotiate the Kyoto Protocol, it was faced with the challenge of satisfying the
requirements laid out in the Byrd-Hagel resolution and then garnering enough
support for Senate ratification, ultimately a fruitless task.
The Kyto Conference of 1997
In December of 1997 the countries which met in Rio in 1992 re-convened in
Kyoto to develop a set of legally binding agreements on the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions. Prior to the conference several developed nations had
made proposals outlining the extent to which reductions should take place. The
U.S. proposed that nations should be required to stabilize their greenhouse gas
emissions at 1990 levels in the interval 2008 -2012. (Keep in mind that is 8 -12
years later than was proposed as a minimum target in Rio). The European Union
proposed that nations should be required to reduce their emissions to 15% below
1990 levels by the year 2010.
Kyoto was not just a meeting of delegates sent by each nation to discuss and
draft a greenhouse gas reductions agreement, but rather, it was a collection of
representatives from every organization with a vested interest in the outcome of
the agreement, from lobbyists for oil and coal corporations, to the directors and
chairmen of NGO's (non-governmental organizations) like Greenpeace and the
World Wildlife Fund, to ecologists and climatologists studying the issue of
warming, to the handful of greenhouse skeptics, to numerous representative from
the U.S. Congress. The stakes in this type of agreement are high and the chasm
between the developed and developing nations becomes that much wider and
more apparent.
After 10 days of discussion and occasional heated debate, the delegates at
the Kyoto Conference reached an agreement. The Kyoto Protocol calls for the
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for several industrialized nations below
1990 levels by 2008-2012. The U.S. agreed to a 7% reduction, and the European
Union and Japan agreed to 8% and 6% reductions, respectively. Twenty-one other
industrialized nations agreed to similar binding targets. The Protocol allows for the
trading of "emissions quotas" among industrialized nations, a significant victory
for the United States. Emissions trading would allow nations that failed to meet
their binding targets to purchase emissions credits from nations that had
emissions levels that were lower than their required targets. This would allow a
nation like the U.S. that has high emissions levels, but also a lot of capital, to
satisfy the agreement. However, despite adamant opposition by the U.S. and
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33
other industrialized nations, the Protocol also indicated that there would be no
binding commitments required of developing countries.
Ratification in 2005
In order to be implemented, the Kyoto Protocol had to be ratified by national
governments the world over. At least 55 parties to the convention (from among
176 nations) were needed to ratify the Protocol and the ratifying countries had to
account for more than 55% of 1990 greenhouse gas emissions in order for the
Protocol to become international law. Since the United States and Russia were
responsible for 36% and 17%, respectively, of 1990 greenhouse gas emissions,
these two countries were seen as key players, with the ratification of at least one
of the two countries essential for implementation of the Protocol.
When the second Bush administration withdrew the United States from the
Kyoto Protocol in 2001, it was seen by some as sounding the death knell for the
ratification process. The US Administration claimed that the science was unsound
and argued that adherence to the provisions of the Protocol would be harmful to
the US economy. Russia used similar arguments to forestall ratification, but
eventually was persuaded by the possibility of advantageous emissions trading
coupled with pressure from the European Union in return for the EU's support of
Russia's admission to the World Trade Organization. As of February 16, 2005, 141
nations had ratified the Protocol, accounting for 61.6% of 1990 greenhouse gas
emission (Source: UNFCC Kyoto Protocol Thermometer), and the Protocol
entered into force, ninety days after ratification by the Russian Duma, or lower
house of parliament.
What is the Impact?
Even if the Protocol were implemented by all parties to the Kyoto conference,
it would result in a just a 5.2% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions below 1990
levels, reducing anthropogenic emissions from around 7.2 billions tons per year to
about 6.8 billion tons per year. From an environmental standpoint, this agreement
falls woefully short of measures needed to head off the warming of the earth.
Most scientists studying this issue are calling for a stabilization of the composition
of the atmosphere. That would mean emissions reductions on the order of 50% of
1990 levels in addition to the cessation of wide scale deforestation, also a
contributor to greenhouse gas accumulation. The Kyoto Protocol is seen by most
environmentalists as a tiny step in the right direction.
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However, human action is essential. As stated by George M. Wood well,
Director of The Woods Hole Research Center, "There is at the moment no obvious
mechanisms that will slow, stop, or otherwise deflect the warming short of
stabilization of the composition of the atmosphere by human action."
Three known human actions can move towards the stabilization of the
composition of the atmosphere:
1. Decreasing the use of fossil fuels by switching to renewable energy
resources
2. Decreasing or eliminating deforestation
3. Increasing rates of reforestation
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10.0 What You Can Do
Vote for Candidates for President and Congress Who Demand Action to Fight
Climate Change
One of the most vital responsibilities our representatives in public office have is to protect
our children, grand-children and future generations from damage to the environment they
will inherit. Currently, the United States is derelict in addressing those responsibilities. If
candidates for public office do not perform as showing concern for the environment, we
must vote against their candidacy. Vote for those who care about this planet. One way to
gauge incumbent’s performance is to view their environmental voting record on the
scorecards of the League of Conservation Voters.
Tips on Cutting Energy Use:

Compact fluorescent bulbs. According to the Discovery Channel documentary,
Global Warming - What You Need to Know with Tom Brokaw, one fluorescent
bulb replacing one regular light bulb is the equivalent of taking one million cars off
the road for an entire year.

When replacing home appliances, use energy efficient models. For example,
replacing an old refrigerator using 320 watts with a new one using 85 watts could
make a big difference. When buying appliances, look for the EPA/Department of
Energy's new Energy Star label.

Use cars and light trucks that get good gas mileage. In fact tell your friends that
driving sports utility vehicle adds to global warming and pollution. SUVs emit 43%
more global-warming pollutants (28 pounds of carbon dioxide per gallon) and 47%
more air pollution than the average car. An SUV is 4 times as likely to rollover in
an accident. If car manufacturers were to increase their fleets' average gas mileage
about 3 miles per gallon, this country could save a million barrels of oil every day,
while US drivers would save $25 billion in fuel costs annually.

Choose a company that offers for homes electricity generated by renewable energy
sources.
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36

If possible, ask employer if your work could be done at home. Even if some of the
work could be completed at your residence, this would help relieve traffic
congestion, which adds to ordinary car emissions.

Help promote community carpooling.

Promote the construction of bike lanes, especially bike lanes that have an outside
curb separating auto traffic and bikes. Establish numerous bike routes into center of
city, limiting auto speed on these routes to 10 miles per hour, during commuting
hours only. Companies could provide showering facilities, together with bike
stands to encourage biking employees.

Place an insulating cover around water heater.

Insulate walls and ceilings, and lower heating bills.

When replacing windows, choose those that are the best energy saving models, such
as double pane windows.

A car needs only about 2 minutes to warm up. Taking more time only wastes fuel
and contributes to global warming.

Keep the door shut to any room that is not being used, saving the energy to heat that
room.

Take public transit whenever possible.

Send e-mail to both your U.S. Senators in support of renewable energy legislation
and the Kyoto Protocol. It's quick and easy.
Suggested Safety Precautions In the Event of a Severe Heat Wave
(To incorporate even more into this resolution see: Heat Plans for Cities

Wear loose, preferably light cotton clothing. Wear a hat to protect the head from the
sun.

Eat light, cool, easily digested foods - avoid hot, heavy, greasy meals. Avoid using
ovens.

Drink lots of water and natural juices.

Avoid alcoholic beverages, coffee and cola.
Global Warming
37

Take a cool bath or shower periodically; use cool towels.

Keep electric lights down low or turned off.

Keep shades drawn and blinds closed, but windows slightly open.

Protect against sunburn. Sunburn will reduce the body's ability to cool itself.

Don't ever use a fan in a closed room without windows or doors open to the outside.
** Increased air movement (i.e., with fans) is associated with increased heat stress
when the ambient temperature exceeds approximately 100 degrees Fahrenheit (the
exact temperature varies with the humidity). Therefore, fans are not protective at
temperatures higher than 90 degrees Fahrenheit, with humidity greater than 35%.

Remember, children under 5 years old are especially sensitive to high temperatures.

Do not leave children in a car. Babies are especially vulnerable.

If you are elderly and feel unusually weak, dizzy or confused, call 911 immediately.

Call your family and friends. Check on elderly or incapacitated persons as
frequently as possible.

Take advantage of air-conditioning. The use of air-conditioning reduces the risk for
heatstroke and heat-related illness, even if it is available for only part of the day.

Persons without home air conditioning should be encouraged and assisted in taking
advantage of air-conditioned environments in private or public places such as
libraries, shopping malls, theaters.

This city will monitor nursing homes and other similar facilities serving senior
citizens, making sure air-conditioners are in working order; that there are plenty of
fans in the nursing facility; that outside concrete walks and patios, perhaps radiating
heat inside the facility, were cooled off with water. All nursing homes should have
independent electricity-generating equipment on hand in case of long-term power
outages.

Avoid physical activity, especially outside work and recreational activity
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11.0 Conclusion
Twenty-five years ago if you made a trip to the local library and perused the periodical
section for articles on global warming, you’d probably have come up with only a few
abstracts from hardcore science journals or maybe a blurb in some esoteric geopolitical
magazine. As an Internet search on global warming now attests, the subject has become as
rooted in our public consciousness as Madonna or microwave cooking.
Perhaps all this attention is deserved. With the possible exception of another world war, a
giant asteroid, or an incurable plague, global warming may be the single largest threat to
our planet. For decades human factories and cars have spewed billions of tons of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and the climate has begun to show some signs of
warming. Many see this as a harbinger of what is to come. If we don’t curb our greenhouse
gas emissions, then low-lying nations could be awash in seawater, rain and drought patterns
across the world could change, hurricanes could become more frequent, and El Niños could
become more intense.
On the other hand, there are those, some of whom are scientists, who believe that global
warming will result in little more than warmer winters and increased plant growth. They
point to the flaws in scientists’ measurements, the complexity of the climate, and the
uncertainty in the climate models used to predict climate change. They claim that
attempting to lower greenhouse emissions may do more damage to the world economy and
human society than any amount of global warming. In truth, the future probably fits
somewhere between these two scenarios. But to gain an understanding of global warming,
it is necessary to get to know the science behind the issue.

Reforestation:-Instead of cutting trees plant the tree & take care of them.

Less use of fossile fuels; alternative fuels should be used.

Avoid the pollution causing due to any reason.

Any how reduce production of greenhouse gases.

Hence plant more trees take care & save the world.
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12.0 References:[1] CNN Web site, Future energy shortages predicted, July 28, 1999,
http://www.cnn.com/US/9907/28/power.crunch.crisis/
[2] Los Angeles Times, Global Warming Threat Real to Pacific Island, article by JohnThor Dahlburg, November 25, 2000.
[3] CNN.com, Heat Waves likely to bring more rolling blackouts, article by Greg
LaMotte,http://www.cnn.com/2000/US/07/01/power.grid.crisis/index.html, July 1, 2000.
[4] Robert T. Watson, chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see
http://www.ipcc.ch/press/sp-cop6-2.htm.
[5] San Francisco Examiner, article by Geoffrey Lean of the London Independent: Report:
Massive flooding just a preview, November 7, 1999.
[6] See report by the Alliance for Safe Energy, June, 2000. Web site:
http://www.ase.org/media/newsrel/press.htm#Tips526
[7] NOAA web site: see http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s412.htm, April 18, 2000.
[8] Robert Watson, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
1.5 degrees to 6 degrees Centigrade equals 2.7 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
[9] Wikipedia and encyclopedia
[10] www.ecobridge.com
[11].www.seria club.com
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