Deutch and Lester (2004)
Farrell, et al (2006)
Ethanol can contribute to energy and env goals
- Review of 6 studies of fuel ethanol, concluding that current corn ethanol is much
less petroleum-intensive than gasoline, but about equal in terms of overall GHG
emissions
- Authors created the EBAMM model to facilitate comparison across 6 studies
- The source of the energy in corn ethanol is from sunshine (5-26%) and a
combination of petroleum, natural gas, and coal
- Policies aimed at reducing environmental externalities in the agricultural sector
may result in significantly improved environmental performance of corn ethanol.
- Evaluations of biofuels policy should use realistic assumptions:
- the inclusion of coproduct credits (corn feed, etc.) in assessing GHG impacts
- accurate data
- clearly defined future scenarios
- performance metrics relevenat to policy goals like reducing GHGs, petroleum
inputs, and soil erosion
O’Rourke (2003)
Just Oil? The Distribution of Environmental and Social Impacts of Oil Production and
Consumption
DO'Rourke, S Connolly - Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2003 - Annual Reviews
Nat. Energy Dev Policy Group (2001) headed by the Dick Cheney stated that “the answer
to today’s oil problem lies in supporting more domestic oil expl., increasing access to
overseas oil, and dev. more refining cap in the US”  means more flexible reg of oil
exploration, production, and refining, and further exploration of untapped domestic
resources.
Control over Oil:
 OPEC – 77% of reserves, 40% of production
 4 largest state oil companies – Saudi Aramco, Pertoleos de Venezuela, Iran’s NIOC,
and Mexico’s Pemex produce 25% of world’s oil, 42% of reserves
 At time of writing 4 super majors – Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and Total
controlled 32% of sales and 19% of refining capacity (downstream operations)
 In 2001 5 corp controlled 61% of US retail gas market, 47% of US oil refinery
market, an d41% of US oil epxlaoration and production
Poor countries dependent on oil revenues often have poorer overall economic and welfare
conditions
Impacts of Exploration, Drilling, and Extraction (Upstream phase)
 40,000 oil fields in the world
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Exp, drilling, and extraction are invasive and affect ecosystems and human health and
cultures
Exploring and drilling in remote reserves involve building roads, platforms, pipelines,
and bringing in vehicles, and crews.
20% of non-hazaradous waste in US comes from oil and gas exp and production
Oil and gas ind crete more solid and liquid waste than all other catgories of
municipal, ag, mining, and industrial wastes combined.
Also effect crew with exposure to noise, unsafe conditions, and toxic metals and
fluids. (exploration and drilling is most dangerous)
Indigenous groups in 6 continents and 39 countries face threat from oil and gas
exploration.
4 types of conflicts arise over oil:
1. civil unrest using disruption of oil supply as tactic
2. superpower politics (i don’t believe it!)
3. conflict with indigenous groups over developing reserves
4. terrorism of oil facilities
Impacts of oil transport – supatankas, barges, trucks, and pipelines
 Oil makes up ½ of tonnage of all sea cargo, more miles of oil pipeline than railroads
 Exxon was largest accident in US history, but 28th largest worldwide.
 Emmission from bilge and oil fuels are equiv to 5 Exxon-Valdez spills/yr, and the
greatest source of oil release into env.
 Spills endanger ecosystems and humans (through clean-up, and consumption of
contaminated fish)
 Pipelines dispraportionatley pass through minority and poor communities.
Impacts of oil refining
 In 1999 54% of refineries were in violation of clean air act, 22% of clean water act
 Oil refining releases 75% of emissions to air, 24% to water, and 1% to land –
majority of emissions occur through leaks. Also use thousands of gallons of water for
production and cooling
 56% of people living within 3 miles of refineries are minorities
 Managing of refineries is being outsourced – results in reduced liability for refineries,
and poorer paid and trained contract employees
Impacts of oil combustion
 Contributes to air/water pollution and global warming – all of which
disproportionately affect the poor.
 Leaded gas still common in developing countries
 Highest density of buses and bus stations (and thus emissions) are in poorest
neighborhoods. Asthma rates positively correlated to race and poverty
 Global warming may be greatest env just issue ever.
Regulation
A number of loopholes and exemptions exist for oil and gas industry from EPA
regulations. Regulatory/inspection agencies often understaffed/underfunded
More data and research are needed to truly understand the public costs of the many
negative externalities of oil production and consumption
Collins (2007)
Collins, William, et. al., (2007) “the Physical Science behind Climate Change”
This article is written by participants in Working Group I of 2007 IPCC assessment and
highlights the key findings that document the extent of climate change and the
unavoidable conclusion that human activity is driving the change.
Drivers of Climate Change
 Some GHG (e.g. halocarbons) have no natural source, while for other gases,
higher geographic concentrations in industrialized North and analysis of isotopes
show CO2 come from fossil fuel combustion
 Radiation Forcing – change in energy balance of earth from preindustrial times to
the present, + induces warming, - induces cooling
 Aerosol Cloud Albedo Effect – aerosols from human origins interact with clouds
to make it brighter and reflect more sunlight, least certain
 See chart with details on different types of radiative forcing on pg. 67
Observed Climate Change
 Changes in 3 Important Quantities: global temperature, sea level and snow cover
in the Northern Hemisphere  all evidence of warming
 Observations consistent with observed warming:
o decrease snow cover and rising spring temperatures in northern
midlatitudes
o warming in the ocean (absorbed 80+% of heat added to the climate
system)  sea level rise
o substantial reductions in Arctic sea ice since 1978
Attribution of Observed Changes
 2001 IPCC report concluded likely (>66% probability) and 2007 IPCC Report
concluded very likely (>90% probability) that most of warming attributable to
humans
 Additional 5 year of observational records consistent with IPCC projections of
GHG-driven warming from previous reports
 Improved climate models: development of comprehensive coordinated ensemble
of simulations of 18 modeling groups, incorporation of more realistic
representation of climate processes in models
 Resolved previous inconsistencies noted in observational records: mismatch
between instrumental surface temperature record and balloon + satellite
atmospheric records resolved in new studies
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Fingerprints of human influence: greater warming over land and at surface of sea
than ocean and sea in deeper layers, troposphere warmed but stratosphere
cooled
Projections of Future Changes
 Over next 20 years: global temp. will increase at average rate of 0.2 degrees C
per decade
 21st Century: range of increase in global temp. from 1.8 to 4 degrees depending
on emission scenario
 See diagram of “Regional Picture” of predicted effects on pg. 73 for more details
Kolbert (2005) I
This article is about Alaska and climate change there.
An Alaskan village called Schishmaref is on a very small island called Sarichef.
Schishmaref is an Inupiat native village where people live by subsistence hunting (seals,
walrus, moose, rabbit, and migrating birds.) The men used to hunt by dog sleds and then
later by snow mobiles. They would drive on the sea ice 20 miles. Now the sea ice is
melting and slushy. They can’t drive snow mobiles over it and now they use boats.
When the Chukchi Sea froze early around them, their village was protected by storms.
Now, the freezes come later, and the village is no longer protected. In some storms, 12
feet waves threatened the village and in another storm, several homes were destroyed.
The villagers voted to move to the mainland. The full relocation will cost at least $180
million dollars.
In 1979, the National Academy of Sciences did its first rigorous study of global warming.
There were two groups taking into account CO2 in climate modeling: Syukuro Manabe’s
group at National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, and James Hansen’s group at
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. There results were surprising, and Jimmy
Carter called an academy to investigate. It was called the Charney panel. The panel
couldn’t find any flaws. A doubling of CO2 would cause a 2-8 oF average rise in
temperature.
Now, there’s lots of information on climate change. National Academy of Sciences has
almost 200 reports on it. Every year is getting progressively warmer. The world is now
warmer than at point in the last 2000 years and by the end of the century, it’ll be warmer
than any a point in 2,000,000 years. Natural forces can not explain the trend.
Glaciers are retreating, ocean temperatures are rising and being more acidic, animals’
ranges are shifting poleward, plants are blooming early. The Arctic is melting.
In Fairbanks, interior Alaska, the permafrost is melting and forest fires are raging. The
land is drier and hotter, so fires from lightning happen more often and burn longer. Since
the permafrost is melting, trenches are being formed in the ground. Trees are leaning and
houses are splitting in two. Ice wedge networks are melting when the permafrost melts
and the land is adjusting. The permafrost is probably from the beginning of the last
glacial cycle, so it hasn’t been thawed for more than 120,000 years.
Climate change can be monitored by measuring the permafrost temperature. The air
temperature varies too widely from year to year. The permafrost temperature is rising.
Permafrost also contains partially degraded plant matter that’s frozen. When the
permafrost melts, it will release carbon dioxide and methane, greenhouse gases. It’s a
time bomb.
On edge of an island, the ice wedges are melting and land is sliding into the sea. So, the
island is getting even smaller.
Some researchers wanted to conduct a year round experiment and needed a place to dock
their ship with 9 feet of ice. They used information from 1975 to go the 9’ ice. But in
1997, the ice was at most 6’ thick.
New ice is salty, perennial ice that consists year round doesn’t contain salt water.
The Arctic Oscillation has been in positive mode: low pressure in the Arctic, so strong
winds and high temperature are coming farther north.
Albedo: total reflect light/total incoming light
Snow covered ice: 0.8-0.9
The highest albedo in the world
Sea: 0.1
The lowest in the world
Melting ice causes a feedback loop to heat up more, and then melt more ice, etc.
Antartica’s ice cores contain CO2 gas from 4 glacial periods. The current CO2 level is
higher than any other point in 450,000 years.
Greenhouse gases keep Earth is an average 57oF, instead of 0oF, without the greenhouse
gases.
Arrhenius in 1894 calculated the effect of a rise in greenhouse gases. He predicted a
large rise in earth temperature. At the time, they thought it would take 3000 years to
double the level of CO2.
Melting ice moves faster than nonmelting ice. So, ice is breaking off from glaciers much
faster than expected.
By looking at Greenland ice samples, they can determine the past temperature of the
earth. They found sudden and unpredictable temperature reversals. 12000 years ago, the
earth was warming, then went into sudden glacial conditions. Then heated up rapidly
1200 years later. In Greenland, the average temperature rose 12 degrees in 10 years.
If greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled, Greenland ice will entirely melted, set in
irreversible motion by the next several decades.
Thermohaline circulation or “conveyor belt” is the flow of ocean water on the planet. It
is the energy engine for the world climate. Significant redistribution can happen by
increasing ocean temperature and pouring fresh water in the poles. Both are happening.
A total shutdown of this conveyor belt will cause Britian to become very cold.
Iceland is extremely concerned with climate change. They monitor the location of glacial
edges, which are melting and moving backward. Climate models predict the mass of
glaciers in Iceland will be melting by the end of the century.
There was a meeting with eight Arctic nations to discuss climate change. They could not
reach a decision on policy though.
Kolbert (2005) II
Kolbert (2005) III
Popular article on climate change, discussing technology, Kyoto, and adaptation.
Main message: Climate change is happening, we need to do something about it yesterday,
and the US isn’t helping any.
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Starts and ends in the Netherlands with examples of projects to deal with
flooding.
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Introduces idea of the ‘Anthropocene,’ coined by Paul Crutzen in Nature, to
describe the era from the 1780s to present as an era dominated by humans.
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Socolow wedges – available technologies that can stabilize atmospheric CO2
concentrations.
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o 3 categories:
 Energy demand
 Energy supply
 CO2 capture/sequestration
o Wedge idea assumes these technologies will be implemented immediately
o Need price of carbon for wedges to be implemented
 Cap & trade, or
 Tax
o Hard path – we’re building infrastructure that guarantees more emissions
Emphasizes need to change people’s minds – people just need to decide it’s worth
it to reverse climate change
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Hoffert: Socolow wedges aren’t enough; we need new technologies
o Space-based solar power
 More sunlight in space
 Sunlight constant
 Beam back with microwaves?
 Not tested yet
o Solar collectors on moon?
o Turbines in jet stream?
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Other challenges:
o World is in process of ‘decarbonization’ (coal being replaced with oil, gas)
but this won’t go on for long
 Peak oil
 Development in coal-heavy countries (China, India)
Political Response
o UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) started at
Earth Summit in Rio in 1992; ratified by 165 countries, including US
(Bush I)
o Kyoto Protocol (under UNFCCC) emerged in 1997
 Mandatory commitments for ‘Annex I’ countries (US, Canada,
Japan, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, some of Eastern Bloc) to
reduce emissions by certain amounts depending on various
historical / political factors. Non Annex I countries don’t have to
reduce. Protocol went into effect 2005, when Russia joined,
bringing membership to the required level of representing at least
55% of developed-country emissions. Protocol ends in 2012.
 US response
 Clinton signed, never ratified (wanted developing nations
to participate)
 Byrd-Hagel Resolution: US should reject anything that
doesn’t require emissions reductions from developing
countries – Senate approved unanimously
o Bad for the economy, blah, blah…
o Leakage
o Equity: what about cumulative emissions, or per
capita? Is it really fair to ask developing countries
to cut emissions?
 Withdrew from Kyoto negotiations in 2001
 Basically impeding progress in any way possible – and
continuing BAU emissions, making it even more unlikely
that developing countries will join
Current administration
o Bush II campaign said he’d set limits to CO2 emissions; reversed position
shortly after inauguration on grounds of incomplete scientific knowledge
o Wants to focus on GHG intensity (CO2/$) – so as long as the economy
grows faster than emissions, you’re good
o Voluntary measures rather than mandatory
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Climate Change skeptics
o Focus on uncertainties, although there is near consensus on the fact that
change is happening – uncertainties lie more in the details…
o CO2 is good for the planet! (Greening Earth Society)
o Inhofe
Pacala and Socolow (2004)
Pacala and Socolow 2004 – Wedge Stabilization theory
- Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial
know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century.
- Stabilization at 500ppm CO2 requires maintaining today's 7 GtC per year, though
we're on a trajectory to double in 50 years.
- Divide the stabilization triangle into 7 equal wedges.
- A wedge starts at zero today and increases to 1 GtC per year by 2050, thereby
accounting for 25 GtC total over the 50 years.
- Overall emissions must drop after 2050
- BAU continues the historical 1.5% annual growth in carbon emissions
- 15 options for wedges, of which 7 would be required:
1. Efficient vehicles (60mpg instead of 30 mpg)
2. Reduced use of vehicles (5000mi/yr instead of 10000 mi/yr)
3. Efficient buildings (sum of insulation, lighting, heating efficiencies, etc.)
4. Efficient base load coal plants (increase from 40% effic. to 60% effic.)
5. Replace coal baseload power with 1400 GW natural gas baseload power
6. CO2 capture at baseload power plant
7. CO2 capture at H2 plant
8. CO2 capture at coal-to-synfuels plant ‡ Geological storage
9. Nuclear power in place of coal power
10. Wind power in place of coal power
11. PV power in place of coal power
12. Wind H2 in fuel cell car in place of gasoline in hybrid car
13. Biomass fuel for fossil fuel
14. Reduced deforestation plus afforestation
15. Conservation tillage
Masters (1991)
Sulfurous smog due to fossil fuel (esp. coal) combustion Cities’ air pollution mostly
carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, other VOCs, which react with each other and sunlight
to form photo-chemical smog – mostly from vehicles.
Air pollution controls have reduced dramatic spikes in pollutant concentrations that have
caused episodes of widespread mortality in past.
BUT morbidity and mortality from long-term exposure remains a big problem.
1991 estimate: excess deaths from air pollution several tens of thousands per year in U.S.
Primary pollutants:
o emitted directly into atmosphere.
o Examples: nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons.
o Processes: combustion, evaporation or grinding/abrasion.
o Combustion is source of great majority of emissions.
Secondary pollutants:
o created from chemical reactions in atmosphere. E.g. ozone.
Products of combustion:
o carbon dioxide and water.
o If temperature is not high enough, or not enough oxygen available,
incomplete oxidization and carbon monoxide is emitted, and partially
combusted hydrocarbons emitted.
o Nitrogen in air reacts with oxygen to form Nox.
o Impurities in most fuels such as nitrogen, sulfur, lead and other
unburnables releases Sox, Nox, particulates and ash.
So combustion looks like:
Fuel (w/ impurities) + Air (N2 + O2) -- Emissions (CO2, H2O, CO, Nox, Sox, lead,
particulates) + Ash
Photochemical smog (e.g. ozone) is produced:
VOCs + Nox + Sunlight ---- Photochemical smog (O3 etc.)
Distinction between ground level ozone (bad) and stratospheric ozone (good).
The six criteria pollutants are: CO, Nox, Sox, lead, ground-level ozone and
particulate matter (e.g. ash).
Mobile vs. stationary sources:
Mobile sources: highway vehicles, other transportation, railroads, aircraft, farm
vehicles, boats, ships. Responsible for vast majority of CO emissions.
Stationary sources: electric power plants, industrial energy systems, industrial
processes. Responsible for majority of Sox emissions.
Air Pollution Control Act of 1955: funded only research, but milestone in federal
recognition/participation in efforts to deal with air pollution.
Clean Air Act: Actually a series of legislative actions by Congress in 1963, 1966, 1970,
1977, 1990. Much of structure established in 1970 amendment – required EPA to
establish National Ambient Air Quality Standards, and states to submit plans to meet
standards. Also required New Source Performance Standards to limit emissions from
industry and vehicles.
By 1977 only one third of air quality control regions were meeting standards –led
to another amendment. To address this EPA adopted emissions offsets policy: new
pollution sources must be offset by reductions from existing sources (eg via scrubber
equipment). Offsets can be traded, sold or banked for future use.
For regions that were better than standards, divided into three classes of areas:
1.where no increase in pollution allowed (nat’l parks), 2. modest deterioration allowed, 3.
large increments of increased pollution allowed (areas slated for development). Best
available control technology required on new sources.
Ambient air quality standards: specify acceptable concentrations of pollution.
Emission standards: specify acceptable rates at which pollutants are released.
List of criteria pollutants periodically reviewed and amended. In 1987 standard was
modified to include only particulates less than 10 micrometers. 1997 additoinal category
of less than 2.5 micrometers added. (Volumetric ppm units preferred because
independent of air pressure and temperature)
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990:
o New acid deposition control program (Title IV)
o New requirements for nonattainment areas (not meeting standards)
o Tighter car emission standards and fuel requirements
o New toxic air pollution controls
o Phase-out schedule for ozone-depleting substances
New market-based approach setting cap on SOX at 8.9 million tons by 2000 to reduce
acid rain. EPA administered allowance system with excess penalties of 2000 bucks per
ton SO2. Started emission allowance trading. A reserve of allowances was given to
utilities with energy conservation and renewables programs.
States such as California have established more stringent air quality standards than
federal.
Jones, et al (2007)
 Lifecycle Analysis Carbon Calculator to estimate the GHG emissions embedded
in goods or services
 Household consumption accounts for 80% of US emissions with LCA analysis.
Overseas emissions from production of consumer goods adds up to 30% of US
domestic emissions.
 Product labels of carbon intensities would:
o Inform consumer choices (e.g. buy low carbon local produce instead of
high-carbon imports)
o Enable voluntary carbon markets (e.g. buy a carbon offset; increases price
.4-.75%)
o Enable price corrections for the negative externality of climate change
 e.g. serve as an accounting system for cap & trade or carbon taxes.
 Challenges are:
o Add more economic sectors
o Override economic-wide EIO-LCA averages with more specific data,
where supply-chain information is available
o Overcome price distortions (e.g. does the university really emit more
carbon if I pay out-of-state tuition instead of in-state tuition?)
o Increasing compatibility single-product Life Cycle Assessments
o Encourage manufacturers to conduct LCAs on their product lines and
subsequently lower emissions\
Asian Development Bank (2005)