G Glleenn R Riiddggee P Puubblliicc S Scchhoooollss ––M Maatthheem maattiiccss C Cuurrrriiccuulluum m Course Title: ADVANCED PLACEMENT STATISTICS Subject: Mathematics Grade Level: 9-12 Duration: Full Year Prerequisite: Algebra II and Geometry with a grade of “B+” or better, teacher recommendation and completion of summer assignment. Elective or Required: Elective Mathematics Mission Statement Since Mathematical and Computational thinking are an integral part of our lives and 21 st Century learning, students must be actively involved in their mathematics education with problem solving being an essential part of the curriculum. The mathematics and computer science curricula will emphasize thinking skills through a balance of computation, intuition, common sense, logic, analysis and technology. Students will be engaged and challenged in a developmentally appropriate, student-centered learning environment. Students will communicate mathematical ideas effectively and apply those ideas by using manipulatives, computational skills, mathematical models and technology in order to solve practical problems. To achieve these goals, students will be taught a standards-based curriculum that is aligned with the National Common Core Standards in Mathematics and the New Jersey Common Core Standards in Technology and 21st Century Life and Careers. Course Description: AP Statistics is an introductory, non-calculus based course in statistics. The purpose of the course is to introduce and develop strategies for collecting, organizing, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: 1. 2. 3. 4. Exploring Data: Planning a Study: Anticipating Patterns: Statistical Inference: Observing patterns and departures from patterns Deciding what and how to measure Producing models using probability and simulation Confirming models. Modern technology provides a mechanism for the simulation and analysis of data. Students will use a TI-83/84 graphing calculator and Web-based java applets to investigate statistical concepts. Through the study of statistics, students will expand their understanding of mathematics and acquire tools that will help them to be effective problem solvers in a variety of fields. Given that statistics is used in myriad disciplines, an understanding of introductory concepts is vital for success at the university level and beyond. To develop effective statistical communication skills, students will be required to prepare frequent written and oral analysis of real data. In addition, this statistics curriculum will cover all topics suggested by the College Board and provide students the background and preparation necessary to be successful on the AP Exam. Textbook: The Practice of Statistics 4th ed by Starnes, Yates & Moore Author: Catherine McCarthy Date Submitted: Summer 2012 AP STATISTICS Unit I: Exploring and Understanding Data Approximate # of weeks: 2 Essential Questions: 1. What is data and are there different types of data? 2. What are the numerical and graphical methods for data representation? 3. Which are the best types of graphs to use for different types of data? 4. How can technology be helpful in the study of statistics? 5. What information does a graph reveal about a distribution of data? 6. What are some examples of statistics used in real life? NJCCS: S-ID # 1,2,3, & 5 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. Understand what is meant by data and the distribution of a variable. 2. Distinguish between categorical and quantitative variables. 3. Construct side-by-side bar graphs to compare distributions of categorical data. 4. Determine marginal distributions in categorical data. 5. Find conditional distributions. 6. Understand and explain Simpson’s Paradox 7. Construct and describe a dotplot for a given distribution of data. 8. Construct stem and leaf plots of the distribution of a quantitative variable. 9. Construct a histogram of the distribution of a quantitative variable. 10. Observe overall patterns and deviations from pattens for a given distribution. 11. Characterize the shape of a stem and leaf plot, dotplot, or histogram. 12. Determine numerical measures of center and spread for a given distribution: mean, standard deviation, five number summary. 13. Determine which measures of center and spread are more appropriate for a given distribution. 14. Recognize and determine outliers. 15. Understand the effects of outliers 16. Calculate the mean of a set of observations. 17. Determine the median of a set of observations. 18. Understand that the median is more resistant than the mean. 19. Recognize the effects of the skewness of a data distribution on the mean. 20. Define and calculate five-number summary, IQR, and outliers. 21. Construct a boxplot with and without a calculator. 22. . Use a calculator or software to calculate the standard deviation for a set of observations. 23. Use TI-83 menu to determine univariate data statistics. 24. Determine the effect of a linear transformation on measures of center and spread. 25. Calculate new measures of center and spread on transformed data. 26. . Construct back-to-back stem and leaf plots and side-by-side boxplots to compare distributions of quantitative variables. 27. Write narrative comparisons of the shape, center, spread, and outliers for two or more quantitative distributions. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Standard 9.3 Career Awareness, Exploration, and Preparation Activities: Technology: Making histograms & boxplots on calculator; computing numerical summaries on calculator; Mean & Median Applet Data Collection Activity: M&M Activity SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website Teacher Resource Binder activities Textbook Activity: “Hiring Discrimination-it Just Won’t Fly” Short Project: GOT FRIENDS Case Closed: Do Rewards Promote Creativity? AP multiple choice and free response question 2006 # 1 Enrichment Activities: Alternative project: “Water, Water, Everywhere” Alternative project: “Did Mr. Starnes Stack his Class?” Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced in textbook Teacher’s Resource Binder Magazine and Newspaper articles “Against All Odds” Videos # 1,2,& 3 Statistical Applets as referenced in textbook Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve Unit II: Describing Location within a Distribution Approximate # Of Weeks: 1 Essential Questions: 1. What is a density curve? 2. How can density curves be used to express relative standing? 3. What is a normal distribution? 4. What does a normal distribution imply about the spread of data? 5. How does one assess normality? NJCCS: S-ID # 4 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. Determine the standardized value (z score) of an observation. 2. Interpret z-scores in context. 3. Use percentiles to locate individual values within distributions of data. 4. Construct and interpret an ogive for a set of data. 5. Understand the concept that areas under a density curve represent proportions of all observations and that the total area under a density curve is 1. 6. Approximately locate the median and the mean on a density curve. 7. Understand and recognize that the mean and median both lie at the center of a symmetric density curve. 8. Recognize the effect on the relationship between the mean and the median of a skewed density curve. 9. Recognize the shape of the Normal curve. 10. Estimate the mean and standard deviation from a density curve. 11. Develop and apply the Empirical Rule to state what percent of the observations from a Normal distribution within 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations away from the mean. 12. Use the standard Normal distribution to determine the proportion of values in a specified range. 13. Use z-scores to standardize non-standard Normal distributions. 14. Calculate probabilities using the Normal distribution using either table or calculator. 15. Determine a z-score from a percentile. 16. Given that a variable has a Normal distribution with stated mean and standard deviation, use table and calculator to find the value of the observation having a stated proportion of values to the left or to the right of it. 17. Solve problems involving the Normal distribution. 18. Be familiar with Normal Distribution functions of the TI-83/84. 19. Plot a histogram, stem and leaf plot, and/or boxplot to determine if a distribution is bellshaped. 20. Construct and interpret Normal probability plots on the calculator. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question 2006B #1 Teacher Resource Binder activities Data Exploration: The Vending Machine Problem Technology: Normal Curve Applet; Normal Probability Plots on the Calculator Case Closed: Do You Sudoku? Enrichment Activities: Special Problem: Exploring Normal Distributions Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 4 & 5 Statistical Applets as referenced by textbook Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve Unit III: EXAMINING RELATIONSHIPS Approximate # of Weeks: 3.5 Essential Questions: 1. What is Bivariate Data? 2. How can we assess the association between two variables? 3. What is regression? 4. How well does data fit a regression model? 5. What are the properties of a linear regression model? NJCCS: S-ID #5, 6a, 6b, 6c, 7, 8, 9 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. Distinguish between bivariate and univariate data. 2. Identify the explanatory and response variables in situations where one variable explains or influences another. 3. Construct a scatterplot to display the relationship between two quantitative variables with and without the use of a calculator. 4. Describe the direction, form, and strength of the overall pattern of a scatterplot. 5. Recognize a positive or negative association and linear pattern in a scatterplot. 6. Recognize outliers in a scatterplot. 7. Use a calculator to find the correlation coefficient between two quantitative variables. 8. Understand the relationship between the value of the correlation coefficient and linearity. 9. Using a calculator, find the least-squares regression line and use it to make predictions. 10. Explain the meaning in context of the variables used in the equation for a least-squares regression line. 11. Determine the slope and intercept of the least-squares regression line using the correlation coefficient r, and the means and standard deviations of x and y. 12. Recognize the difference between interpolation and extrapolation. 13. Recognize the dangers of extrapolation. 14. Determine the equation of the least-squares regression line by reading an appropriate computer output. 15. Analyze the best regression equation to use for a data set. 16. Calculate the residuals and plot them against the explanatory variable. 17. Use the residual plot function of the calculator. 18. Recognize any unusual patterns in a residual plot. 19. Interpret the residual plot in order to analyze whether an equation is a good fit. 20. Use the coefficient of determination to describe how much of the variation in one variable can be accounted for by a straight-line relationship with the other variable. 21. Recognize outliers and potentially influential observations from a scatterplot with the regression line drawn on it. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question 2005 #3 Teacher Resource Binder activities Technology: Scatterplots, Least Square Regression Lines , Residual Plots on the calculator; Interpreting Least-Squares Regression Outputs form Minitab, JMP, and other software programs Data Exploration: Guess the Correlation Investigating properties of the least-squares regression line Statistical Applet: Correlation and Regression Case Closed: How Faithful is Old Faithful? Enrichment Activities: Special Problem: Are SAT Scores Linked? Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 7, 8, & 9 Magazine and Newspaper articles Statistical Applets as referenced by textbook Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve Unit IV: DATA COLLECTION Approximate # Of Weeks: 3 Essential Questions: 1. How do we collect data? 2. How do we avoid bias? 3. How can causation be established? 4. What are the parts of a well-designed experiment? 5. What cautions about experimentation exist? NJCCS: S-IC #1, 3, 6 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. Identify a population, sample, parameter, or statistic. 2. Recognize bias due to voluntary response sampling and other inferior sampling methods. 3. Define and identify a simple random sample from a population. 4. Recognize, compare and utilize sampling methods. 5. Recognize the presence of undercoverage, response and nonresponse bias in sample surveys. 6. Differentiate between experiments and observational studies. 7. Recognize bias due to confounding of explanatory variables with lurking variables in either an observational study or an experiment. 8. Define and identify the factors, treatments, response variables, and experimental units or subjects, in an observational study and in an experiment. 9. Outline the design of a completely randomized experiment including elements of randomization, control and replication. 10. Define and recognize the placebo effect. 11. Define, recognize and apply principle of double-blind experimental design techniques. 12. Recognize and apply a block design in an appropriate experimental setting. 13. Define and recognize the appropriate setting for a matched-pair experimental design. 14. Explain why a randomized comparative experiment can give good evidence for cause and effect relationships. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Standard 5.1 Science Practices A & B Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response questions: see College Board Website for AP Index of FRQ Technology: Choosing a SRS using a calculator Teacher Resource Binder activities Lab activities: See No Evil, Hear No Evil Rolling Down the River Random Rectangles Sampling Sunflowers Data Exploration: Nitrogen in Tires – a lot of Hot Air? Cased Closed: Magnets and Pain Enrichment Activities: Lab Activity: Gallop Poll Webquest Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 11, 12, 13, & 14 Magazine and Newspaper articles Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve Unit V: RANDOMNESS AND PROBABILITY Approximate # Of Weeks: 3 Essential Questions: 1. What is Randomness? 2. What is a Probability Model and how does it affect our world? 3. What is a Probability Distribution? 4. How can we compute and express probabilities in simple and complex situations? 5. How can simulations be used to model probability? 6. What is demonstrated by the Law of Large Numbers? NJCCS: S-ID # 1, 2, S-CP # 1-9 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Recognize that many random phenomena can be investigated by means of a carefully designed simulation. Design and run a simulation using either a random number table or the random number generator function of a calculator. Describe the sample space of a random phenomenon. Apply appropriate counting techniques to determine the finite number of outcomes of an event. Determine simple probabilities. Define and apply the Law of Large Numbers. Know the probability rules and be able to apply them to determine probabilities of defined events. Determine a valid probability distribution. Distinguish between events that are disjoint, complementary, or independent. Determine the probabilities of the union and/or intersection of events. Understand and apply the rules for conditional probability. Construct tree diagrams to organize the use of the multiplication and addition rules to solve problems with several stages. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: 2003B # 2 Platinum Binder activities Lab activities: Monty Hall Problem “1 in 6 Wins” Game Whose Book is This? Data Exploration: Investigating Randomness Cased Closed: How Well Can Babies Hear? Enrichment Activities: Simulation Activity: Airline Overbooking Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 15 Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve Unit VI: Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions Approximate # Of Weeks: 3 Essential Questions: 1. What is a Random Variable? 2. What is a Probability Distribution for a Random Variable? 3. How do we combine Independent Random Variables? 4. How does one identify a Binomial or Geometric Variable? 5. How are Binomial or Geometric Probability models used? NJCCS: S-MD # 1-4, 5Aa, 5b Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Recognize and define a discrete random variable. Recognize and define a continuous random variable. Construct a probability distribution table and a probability histogram for the random variable. Determine the probabilities of events as areas under density curves. Given a Normal random variable, use the standard Normal table or a calculator to find probabilities of events as areas under the standard Normal distribution curve. Calculate the mean and variance of a discrete random variable. Calculate the expected value of a discrete random variable. Use simulation methods and the Law of Large Numbers to approximate the mean of a distribution. Use rules for means and rules for variances to solve problems involving sums, differences, and linear combinations of random variables. Identify a random variable and/or probability setting as Binomial. Calculate Binomial probabilities using a calculator or formula. Construct probability distribution table and histogram for Binomial variables. Calculate cumulative distribution functions for Binomial random variables. 14. Calculate means and standard deviations of Binomial random variables. 15. Use Normal approximation to the Binomial Distribution to compute probabilities. 16. Solve problems using Binomial probabilities. 17. Identify a random variable and/or probability setting as Geometric. 18. Calculate Geometric probabilities using calculator or formula. 19. Calculate cumulative distribution functions, distribution tables, and histograms, for Geometric random variables. 20. Calculate expected values and standard deviations of Geometric random variables. 21. Solve problems using Geometric probabilities. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: 2003 #3 Technology: Binomial & Geometric Probabilities on the calculator Platinum Binder activities Lab activities: Casino Lab Streaky Behavior Waiting for Sammy Sosa Data Exploration: Streaky Behavior Cased Closed: Does Therapeutic Touch Really Work? Enrichment Activities: Lab Activity: “Bottled Water vs Tap Water” Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 16 & 17 Magazine and Newspaper articles Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve REVIEW FOR MIDTERM EXAM: 3 DAYS Unit VII: Sampling Distributions Approximate # Of Weeks: 3 Essential Questions: 1. How do Statistics Vary? 2. What is a Sampling Distribution? 3. How does sample size effect the distribution of means? 4. What is the impact of the Central Limit Theorem? 5. How does one model the distribution of sample proportions? NJCCS: S-IC #1, 3, 4 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Identify parameters and statistics in a sample or experiment. Develop and understand the characteristics of sampling variability of the distribution of sample proportions. Interpret a sampling distribution as describing the values taken by a statistic in all possible repetitions of a sample of experiment under the same conditions. Describe the bias and variability of a statistic in terms of the mean and spread of its sampling distribution. Recognize when a problem involves a sample proportion. Determine the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of sample proportions. Develop and understand the characteristics of the variability of the sampling distribution of sample proportions. Recognize when it is possible to use the Normal approximation to the sampling distribution of sample proportions. Use Normal approximations to calculate the probabilities of sample proportions. Recognize when a problem involves the mean of a sample. Determine the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of sample means. Develop and understand the characteristics of sampling variability of the distribution of sample means. Develop, understand, and apply the Central Limit Theorem. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question:2009 #2 Teacher Resource Binder activities Lab activities: GERMAN TANKS GETTYSBURGH ADDRESS THE AGE OF A PENNY Statistical Applet: Reese’s Pieces Data Exploration: Polls (Sampling Proportions) Cased Closed: Building Better Batteries Enrichment Activities: Lab Activities: Baseball Player Salaries (the Central Limit Theorem) The German Tank Problem with technology Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 18 Magazine and Newspaper articles Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website: Special Focus- Sampling Distributions Unit VIII: Estimating With Confidence Approximate # Of Weeks: 3 Essential Questions: 1. What does it mean to make an inference? 2. How do we use statistics to estimate parameters? 3. What is a margin of error? 4. What is a confidence interval? 5. How does one distinguish among the various confidence intervals? NJCCS: S-IC # 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Interpret the meaning of statistical statements of confidence as found in statistical reports. Calculate the confidence interval for the population mean of a Normal population with an unknown known population standard deviation using the t-distribution table and formula or by calculator. Recognize the appropriateness of using a z-distribution or a t-distribution in constructing a confidence interval for the population mean. Compare and contrast the z- and t-distribution curves. Understand and determine the appropriate degrees of freedom for a t-distribution. State and apply necessary conditions and/or assumptions for construction of a confidence interval using either the z or t-distributions. Understand the characteristics and relationship between the margin of error, standard deviation and sample size. Determine the sample size required to obtain a confidence interval of specified margin of error when the confidence level and other information are given. Recognize paired-data designs and appropriately use one-sample t-procedures to obtain confidence intervals for such data. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Standard 5.1 Science Practices Activities – include 21st Century Technologies: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: see College Board Website for index of FRQ Technology: Confidence Intervals on the calculator; Statistical Applet: The Confidence Interval Platinum Binder activities Lab activities: The Mystery Mean Give Me a Kiss Capture/ Recapture Cased Closed: Need Help? Give Us a Call! Enrichment Activities: Lab Activity: Calculator Bingo (introduces the t-distribution) Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Teacher Resource Binder Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 19 Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website Unit IX: Significance Testing for One Population Approximate # Of Weeks: 3 Essential Questions: 1. How do we draw conclusions from samples? 2. How do we assess the strength of a claim based on a sample? 3. What is a test of significance? 4. What is the process for running a test of significance? 5. How does one distinguish among the various tests of significance? NJCCS: S-IC # 1, 2, 5, 6 & S-MD # 5a, 5b, 6, 7 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. State the null and alternative hypothesis in a testing situation when the parameter of interest is a population mean. 2. Define and explain the meaning of a p-value. 3. Calculate the one-sample z statistic and the p-value for both one-sided and two-sided tests. 4. Ass ess statistical significance at standard levels of alpha by comparing the p-value to alpha. 5. Recognize the appropriate situation for the use of a z-test. 6. Define, explain and apply concept of Type I, Type II errors and power in a significance testing problem. 7. Run and interpret appropriate z-test on calculator. 8. Recognize when the t-procedures are appropriate in practice. 9. Carry out a t-test for the hypothesis that a population mean has a specified value against either a one-sided or two-sided alternative. 10. Recognize when the design of the study, outliers, or a small sample from a skewed distribution make the t procedures risky. 11. Recognize the paired data and use the t-procedures to perform significance tests for such data using a calculator. 12. Use the z-statistic to carry out a test of significance for the hypothesis that the population proportion is equal to a specified value against either a one-sided or a two-sided alternative. 13. State and understand the assumptions and/or conditions for using the one-proportion z-test in a particular setting. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Standard 5.1 Science Practices A & B Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: See College Board website FRQ Index Teacher Resource Binder activities Lab activities: Pick A Card Technology: Statistical Applet: Test of Significance Power Applet; Hypothesis Tests on the calculator Cased Closed: Do You Have a Fever? Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced in textbook Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 20, 21, & 23 Magazine and Newspaper articles Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board Website and list-serve Unit X: Comparing Two Population Parameters Approximate # Of Weeks: 2 Essential Questions: 1. How and why do we test statistics? 2. How do we distinguish between 2 sample inference and matched-pair inference? 3. How does one construct a confidence interval for two population proportions or means? 4. How does one execute a test of significance for two population proportions or means? NJCCS: S-IC # 1, 2, 5, 6 & S-MD # 5a, 5b, 6, 7 Upon completion of this unit students will be able to: 1. Determine whether a problem requires inference about comparing means or proportions. 2. Recognize from the design of a study whether one-sample t, paired t, or two-sample t procedures are needed. 3. Calculate and interpret a confidence interval for the difference between two means. 4. Test the hypothesis that two populations have equal means against either a one-sided or a two-sided alternative. 5. Recognize when the two-sample t-procedures are appropriate in practice. 6. Use the two-sample z procedure to give a confidence interval for the difference between the two proportions in two populations based on independent SRS from the populations. 7. Use a two-proportion z-test to test the hypothesis that the proportions in two distinct populations are equal. 8. State and understand the assumptions and/or conditions for the appropriate hypothesis test. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Standard 5.1 Science Practices A & B Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: See College Board Website FRQ Index Teacher Resource Binder activities Data Exploration: Do Magnets Help Reduce Pain? Lab activities: Is Yawning Contagious? Technology: Confidence Intervals & Hypothesis Tests on the calculator Cased Closed: Do You Have a Fever? Enrichment Activities: Lab Activity: Snap, Crackle, Pop Does Polyester Decay? Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced in textbook Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 22 Magazine and Newspaper articles Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board Website and list-serve Unit XI: Inference for Distributions of Categorical Variables Approximate # of Weeks: 1.5 Essential Questions: 1. What is a two-way table? 2. When are two categorical variables independent? 3. How does one distinguish between various types of hypothesis testing? 4. How does one conduct a Chi-Square Goodness of Fit test? 5. How does on conduct a Chi-Square test for Homogeneity or Association? NJCCS: S-ID # 5, S-IC # 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, & S-MD # ,7 Upon completion of this unit the student will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Use percents and bar graphs to compare hypothesized and actual distributions for the Goodness of Fit test. Distinguish between tests of homogeneity of populations and test of association/ independence. Organize categorical data in a two-way table. Translate claim into appropriate null hypothesis to be tested. Calculate expected counts numerically or on the calculator. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Calculate the component of the Chi-square statistics for any cell, as well as the overall Chisquare statistic. Give the appropriate degrees of freedom for the chi-square statistic. Use Chi-square critical values from Table to approximate p-value of chi-square test. Run appropriate test on the calculator. Locate expected cell counts, the chi-square statistic, and its p-value in output from computer software or a calculator. Use percents, comparison of expected and observed counts, and the components of the Chisquare statistic to see which deviation from the null hypothesis are most important. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Standard 5.1 Science Practices A & B Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: See College Board Website for FRQ Index Teacher Resource Binder activities Lab activities: The Candy Man Can! Technology: Finding p-values for chi-square tests on the calculator; chi-square GOF on the calculator; chi-square tests for 2-way tables on the calculator Internet Activities: NSDL Classifying Statistical Problems Cased Closed: Do Dogs Resemble their Owners? Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced in textbook Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 24 & 25 Magazine and Newspaper articles Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board Website and list-serve Unit XII: Inference for Regression and Transformations Approximate # of Weeks: 1 Essential Questions: 1. How well does data fit a regression model? 2. How can we use mathematical functions to “straighten out” data? 3. What are the properties of a linear regression model? 4. If two variables have a linear relationship, how do we test a claim about the population regression line? NJCCS: S-ID # 6, 6a, 6b, 6c, S-IC # 1, 2, 4, 6 Upon completion of this unit the student will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Construct a scatterplot to show the relationship between explanatory and a response variable. Use a calculator or software to find the correlation and the least-squares regression line. Recognize the regression setting. Recognize which type of inference is required in a particular regression setting Inspect the data to recognize situations in which inference isn’t safe. Explain in any specific regression setting the meaning of the slope of the true regression line. Be able to read and understand computer output for regression. Read computer output in order to find the slope and intercept of the least squares line, their standard errors, and the standard error about the line. 9. Use the output to carry out tests and calculate confidence intervals for the slope. 10. Perform transformations to achieve linearity: logarithmic, power, and exponential. 11. Carry out an inverse transformation to produce a curve that models the original data. Interdisciplinary Standards (njcccs.org) Standard 9.1 21st-Century Life & Career Skills Standard 8.1 Computer and Information Literacy Standard 8.2 Technology Education Standard 6.3 Active Citizenship in the 21st Century Activities: SmartBoard powerpoint presentations Lecture and class discussion Online quizzes from textbook website AP Multiple Choice and Free Response question: See College Board Website FRQ Index Technology: Linear Regression t- test on the calculator; Residual Plots on the calculator; reading computer outputs; using log and exponential functions on calculator Teacher Resource Binder activities Data Exploration: “It’s a Matter of Life and Death” Cased Closed: Do Longer Drives Mean Lower Scores on the PGA Tour? Enrichment Activities: Lab Activity: The Helicopter Experiment Methods of Assessments/Evaluation: Written chapter test Lab activity assessment Online quizzes Homework Classwork Verbal Assessment Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Resources/Including Online Resources Textbook website: www.whfreeman.com/tps4e Teacher Webpage Statistical Websites as referenced on the teacher webpage Video: AGAINST ALL ODDS PROGRAM # 25 Graphing Calculator AP Central College Board website and list-serve AP EXAM REVIEW After completing the College Board AP Statistics curriculum standards, students will use the remaining time (approximately 2 weeks) in preparing for the AP exam. The instructor will assign AP Free Response questions daily and use the College Board available rubrics to discuss test taking strategies. Prior to the AP exam, students should be given a practice AP test. The College Board provides a practice test and this exam should be given simulating AP exam conditions as closely as possible. Upon completion of this unit the student will be able to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Work through topical reviews found in Teacher Resource Binder Practice selected free-response questions and multiple choice questions. Review exam reader’s commentary and grading rubric on selected free-response questions. Understand AP free-response grading rubric. Practice mock grading sessions. 6. Simulate AP exam situation by taking a practice AP exam which will then count as 1/3 of the 4th marking period grade. 7. Practice classifying hypothesis testing using NSDL Classifying Statistical Problems. Activities: AP Free Response Questions from exams 2007 through 2012 and Multiple Choice questions from exams 2002 & 2007 AP practice exam Internet Activities: NSDL Classifying Statistical Problems Methods of Assessment/Evaluation: Think/Pair/Share Self-Assessments Peer Editing-Grading Graded AP Free Response Questions and practice exam POST EXAM ACTIVITIES Students will analyze how statistics can be applied to many different disciplines and fields. To this end, they will watch appropriate videos such as the History Channel’s Breaking Vegas, the movies MoneyBall, Freakanomics, or A Civil Action. As a final project, they will choose a statistical based book to read and then write a reaction paper about the book. Lists of texts, resources, and/or literature: PRIMARY TEXT Yates, Moore, and Starnes. The Practice of Stastics, 4rd edition. New York, W.H. Freeman, 2010 REVIEW BOOK Sternstein, Martin. Barron’s AP Statistics , Barron’s Educational Series Subjects, 2012 SUPPLEMENTARY TEXTS Bock, Velleman, and DeVeaux. Stats Modeling the World. 2nd edition, Boston, Massachusetts, Pearson Addison Wesley, 2007 Bohan, James F. AP Statistics: Preparing for the Advanced Placement Examination, 2nd edition. New York, New York, AMSCO School Publications, 2006 Millard and Turner. Activities and Projects for High School Statistics Courses. New York, W.H. Freeman and Company, 2004 Peck, Olsen, and Devore. Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis. 2nd edition, Pacific Grove, California, Duxbury, 2004 Peck. Activities Workbook, Thomson Brooks and Cole, 2005 Rossman, Allan and Beth Chance. Workshop Statistic: Discovery With Data and the Graphing Calculator. 2nd edition, Key Curriculum Press, 2002 Scheaffer, Richard, et al. Activity Based Statistics. Key College Publishing, 2004 Utts, Jessica dn Rober Heckard. Mind On Statistics, 3rd edition, Thomson Learning, 2007 SOFTWARE Fathom for Macintosh and Windows by Key Curriculum Press. MATERIALS ALSO TAKEN FROM ARTICLES IN NEWSPAPERS, JOURNALS AND THE WORLD WIDE WEB