Cost efficient capacity expansion strategies using multi-access networks Klas Johansson Anders Furuskär Wireless@KTH, Royal Institute of Technology Electrum 418, SE-164 40 Kista, Sweden Email: klasj@radio.kth.se Wireless Access Networks, Ericsson Research Kista, Sweden Email: anders.furuskar@ericsson.com Abstract— Multi-access networks and hierarchical cell structures are two common capacity expansion strategies for mobile network operators. In both cases costs can be minimized for a set of available radio access technologies, given heterogeneous requirements on area coverage, capacity and quality of service. In this paper we quantify the infrastructure cost for a multi-access network composed of macro cellular HSDPA base stations and IEEE 802.11g WLAN access points. The network is dimensioned for an urban environment using a stochastic model for heterogeneous traffic density. With the used assumptions and modelling it is shown that a combination of HSDPA base stations deployed with 400m cell radius together with WLAN in hot spots are sufficient for average traffic densities up to around 50Mbps/km2 (50 times the traffic of typical private voice users today). In order to evaluate the sensitivity to different design features, we introduce the elasticity of infrastructure cost and can thereby show that it is more important to improve capacity in HSDPA than coverage per 802.11g access point. However, with a sparse deployment of HSDPA macro cells (800m radius) infrastructure cost is more elastic to 802.11g coverage. The paper also indicates some possibilities to differentiate future radio access technologies towards current systems. I. I NTRODUCTION Multi-access networks are promising due to highly varying requirements over time and geographically on mobility, quality of service, capacity, etc., and the inherent tradeoff in all wireless systems between range and feasible data rates. Hence, by deploying a heterogeneous wireless network, with multiple standards and/or hierarchical cell structures, an operator can adapt capacity to demand and thereby lower their capital and operational expenditures (CAPEX/OPEX). There are in fact many wireless standards in the market already today, and even more are under development. Some systems, like 3G, are designed to benefit from economy of scope, meaning that cost efficiency is achieved since a wide range of services can be provided with the same system over wide areas, potentially serving many users. Other standards are streamlined for specific services, such as 2G for wide-area mobile voice and WLAN for local high-speed data connectivity. There are hence reasons to believe that multi-access networks is a sustainable deployment strategy for mobile network operators. This paper treats cost efficient deployment strategies for networks composed of HSDPA macro cellular base stations (BS) and IEEE 802.11g access points (AP). These should represent systems with long range for wide area coverage and low cost, short range access points suitable for hot spots. More specifically, two problems will be addressed; (i) the tradeoff between the number of macro cellular BSs and complementary WLAN APs needed, and (ii) which parameters that are most important to improve in each system in order to further reduce costs. This study complements the results presented in [3], which evaluates the cost with single and multi-access deployment for a number of, both commercially available, and future radio access technologies. In both studies the scope is limited to the radio access network. Spectrum license fees and other costs that are common for the whole mobile network are thus excluded. Likewise are a number of other parameters that also are of importance for a mobile operator’s deployment strategy; e.g. topology, previous assets, and (perhaps foremost) demand and regulatory requirements. Yet, the objective is to contribute to a better understanding of the role of multi-access as capacity expansion strategy and for this reason a stochastic (log-normal) spatial distribution of traffic is assumed [3]. Service allocation principles for multi-access networks have previously been treated in, e.g., [4] and [7]. These studies, however, addresses the problem of selecting radio access network for users that are covered by multiple systems, and not dimensioning of each subsystem. In addition, EU has recently initiated the Ambient Networks project which deals with a number of aspects, mainly technically but also business wise, of heterogeneous networks [9] and there are hence a number of ongoing studies in this area. Previous studies considering the cost structure of mobile systems include, e.g., [6], [8], [11], and [12]. From these studies it is clear that the cost structure of mobile networks today is dominated by the radio access network. Moreover, the studies in [6] and [8] provide a basis for the techno-economical modelling used in the sequel of this paper which is outlined as follows. Section II covers basic modelling and assumptions related to BS performance and costs, as well as network dimensioning. Infrastructure cost estimations for a multi-access network is presented in Section III for incumbent and greenfield operators respectively, together with an analysis of the elasticity of cost with respect to the capacity, coverage and cost per BS. In Section IV we discuss how the studied systems could be improved technically and economically, and point at a few gaps that potentially could be filled by future radio access technologies. The paper is concluded in Section V. II. S YSTEM M ODELS AND P ERFORMANCE M EASURES A macroscopic model is used to capture key technical and economical parameters that influence the infrastructure cost for a typical (western European) mobile network operator. This is based on previous work presented in [4] and factors normally modelled in network dimensioning and capacity analysis; like interference, propagation, etc., are exogenous to the model. A. Network dimensioning and traffic modelling In a multi-access network APs with shorter range and cost may be used in hot spots, whereas macro BSs with a high area coverage are used to provide basic coverage and capacity. In practice radio network planning and dimensioning is an iterative process [2] and as the network matures it is gradually adapted to local demand. To model the deployment strategy we use a heuristically based method which is described in more detail in [3]. The basic idea is, in our example, to first deploy HSDPA sites with a given cell radius and load them with as many transceiver units as needed (up to the maximum capacity per BS). If this is not sufficient to serve the traffic demand, 802.11g APs are deployed in areas with highest traffic density. Ideally, each subsystem should be just capacity limited for a cost effective deployment to avoid excess capacity per AP. Traffic density is modelled as in [3] with a log-normal, spatially correlated, stochastic variable over the service area (10x10km) which herein is divided into samples of 20x20m. A standard deviation of 7dB has been assumed and the correlation distance is 500m, which matches the cell level statistics presented in [5]. In all numerical examples the average population density is 20 000 inhabitants/km2 , corresponding to a city center environment. The operator under study is assumed to have a 30% market share and the service penetration is 90%. Hence, the number of subscribers is in average 5400 users/km2 (locally this is much higher). B. Path loss models Although not used explicitly for the network dimensioning, two standard path loss models will be used to estimate the cell range of macro cells in Section IV; the COST231-Hata (valid for 1km < d < 20km) and COST231-Walfisch-Ikegami (valid for 20m < d < 5km). In general the path loss in small cells, and in particular indoors, is case specific and not readily described with a statistical model. However, these commonly used models provided in [1] should give an indication of feasible cell ranges and the same methodology has been used in, e.g., [2] for rudimentary coverage analysis. COST231-Walfisch-Ikegami - assuming building separation (30m), street width (15m), building height (25m), and a 90 degree angle of arrival for building reflections: 1.5fc ) log10 fc + 38 log10 d. (1) 925 COST231-Hata - with 3dB metropolitan area correction factor and an Okamura-Hata B factor as recommended for large cities: Lb = 57.9 + (27.5 − Lb = 28.9 + 33.9 log10 fc + 35.2 log10 d. (2) TABLE I ACCESS POINT CHARACTERISTICS Radius Capacity Cost coefficient (CAPEX/OPEX) HSDPA 200-1000m [3-9] x 2.5Mbps 1 (55%/45%) + 0.03 per cell 802.11g 40m 22Mbps 0.13 (3%/97%) In both models the BS height was 30m and mobile station height 1.5m. Lb denote path loss in dB, fc is the carrier frequency in MHz, and d is the distance between BS and mobile station given in km. C. Access point performance and cost assumptions APs are characterized with different cell radii, capacities and costs; see Table I. Capacity coefficients for 802.11g assumes no co-channel interference whereas HSDPA does, due to the cellular deployment and limited frequency spectrum – we assume 3 carriers x 5Mhz (15MHz in total) for downlink. Notice that the maximum capacity for HSDPA and 802.11g is similar, 22.5 and 22Mbps, so the AP with lowest cost per transmitted bit is essentially determined by the geographical distribution of traffic. Cost coefficients include both CAPEX and OPEX and are henceforth denoted AP cost. For HSDPA we use the cost for a macro BS derived in [6], which in turn was based on estimates provided by the Gartner Group and [8]. In the numerical examples we have assumed that a macro BS costs e300k. Costs for radio network controllers (RNC) and electrical power have been added as compared to the estimates in [6]. Table I also summarizes the cost structure in terms of CAPEX and OPEX and the additional cost for extra cells (defined as a carrier frequency and sector) in HSDPA. An incumbent operator that already has sites for legacy systems installed may reuse most of these sites and we assume that this lowers the cost for HSDPA BSs with 25%. For 802.11g new estimates have been deducted based on [8]. OPEX is calculated in present value over a 10-year period, using a 10% discount rate (see further [6]). For the sake of simplicity the network is dimensioned to carry the same traffic during the whole network life span. D. Infrastructure cost measures The basic measure for cost efficiency used is the infrastructure cost per GB and month. In doing this we assume that 0.6% of the monthly traffic is carried during each busy hour, which roughly corresponds to the traffic pattern in current cellular systems, and that the network is dimensioned according to average aggregate throughput (per area sample). Hence, the results and conclusions should hold for all traffic mixes that fall within the performance parameters given in Table I. As a sensitivity analysis we estimate the elasticity of infrastructure cost. Elasticity is commonly used in economics to measure the incremental percentage change in one variable with respect to an incremental percentage change in another variable [10]. We define the elasticity of a parameter X (which Infrastructure Cost per Month and GB [Euro] TABLE II S UMMARY OF MONTHLY INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS PER GB AND THE COST ADVANTAGE FOR INCUMBENTS TOWARDS GREENFIELD OPERATORS . 200m 400m 800m 1000m 2 10 Traffic density HSDPA radius HSDPA BS density HSDPA cells/BS WLAN AP density Incumbent operator Greenfield operator Cost advantage for incumbent 1 10 Voice 1Mbps/km2 1000m 0.33BSs/km2 1.4cells 0APs/km2 e6.8 e8.8 24% 10 x voice 10Mbps/km2 800m 0.56BSs/km2 5.7cells 2.1APs/km2 e2.9 e3.4 15% 50 x voice 50Mbps/km2 400m 2.2BSs/km2 6.8cells 19APs/km2 e1.7 e1.9 10% 0 10 Voice 0 10 10 x voice 1 10 Average Traffic Density [Mbps/km2] 100 x voice 2 10 Fig. 1. Infrastructure cost per GB and month for an incumbent operator with a multi-access network consisting of HSDPA macro BSs and IEEE 802.11g APs. The curves depict different cell radii in the macro cells. herein is either cost, coverage or capacity per AP) on the total infrastructure cost C as: ∆C/C . (3) EC,X = |∆X| /X Thus, a negative EC,X corresponds to a decreased cost and if EC,X is positive the infrastructure cost increases (independently of if the changed variable X is increased or decreased). Thus, the higher absolute elasticity, the greater impact X has on C. Notice that elasticity quite often is calculated in absolute value. A 50% change in X has been used in all studied cases so that |∆X|/X = 0.5. As an example, assume that we want to estimate the elasticity with respect to AP coverage in 802.11g. EC,X = −1 would then mean that the total infrastructure cost C decreases with 50% √ if the cell area is doubled. I.e., if the AP range were 40 · 1.5 = 49m instead of 40m. III. N UMERICAL R ESULTS In this section the tradeoff between HSDPA cell radius (site density) and the number of 802.11g APs will first be quantified through simulations using the models outlined above, which are described more thoroughly in [3]. Then the elasticity of infrastructure cost is derived for a few base line configurations. A. Traffic density and HSDPA site distance The macro cellular site density that minimizes cost with single access deployment is not necessarily optimum with a multi-access deployment. It depends on the traffic demand, and how that varies over the total service area (as discussed in [3]). If the macro BSs are deployed too sparsely, the remaining areas that have to be covered with, in this case, 802.11g APs may be too large with a resulting overcapacity per access point. This tradeoff is illustrated in Figure 1, where the infrastructure cost per GB and month is shown for an incumbent operator with different cell radius in the macro cell layer and 90% of the offered traffic supported. As expected the cost varies with traffic density and deployed macro cell radius. The results are summarized in Table II for 1, 10 and 50 times the traffic of typical private voice telephony users (20mErl, 10kbps, see [3]). At 10 x voice, in this example equal to a traffic density of 10Mbps/km2 , an HSDPA cell radius of 800m yields the lowest cost. In average six cells (two carriers in three sectors) are used per HSDPA BS and there are approximately two 802.11g APs per km2 deployed in hot spots. The lowest cost for another tenfold traffic increment is achieved with 400m cell radius. The average number of cells per HSDPA BS is approximately the same. However, the number of WLAN APs is now 19/km2 . Notice also that the incremental cost per transmitted GB flattens when the macro cellular network becomes capacity limited which is due to poor coverage in 802.11g. Results for Greenfield operators have the same shape and the difference in infrastructure cost per GB and month is given Table II. The cost advantage of incumbents vanishes as traffic increase and 802.11g has to be deployed to a greater extent. This highlights how important it is for incumbents to acquire more spectrum to remain competitive if traffic surges in the long run. These results also explain how operators could exploit WLAN in the short run instead of building a denser macro network if traffic suddenly increases. In particular, considering the relatively small sunk costs in WLAN, see Table I, this could be economically justified during transition periods. For example, increasing capacity from 5 to 10 Mbps/km2 with WLAN instead of deploying more macro sites increase costs with less than 100% per GB calculated over 10 years (comparing the results for 1000m and 800m HSDPA radii). In the long run increasing capacity in the macro cell layer is, however, more cost efficient as we will discuss further next. B. Elasticity of infrastructure cost Two reference systems adapted for approximately 10 and 50Mbps per km2 will be used as examples to analyze what key parameters that would lower infrastructure costs the most. For these systems, with 800m and 400m cell radius respectively, the elasticity of infrastructure cost EC,X is plotted Figure 2 with the following variables changed (one per curve): • decreased HSDPA cost coeffiecient, 1 HSDPA cost HSDPA capacity 802.11g cost 802.11g coverage 0.5 Elasticity of Infrastructure Cost Elasticity of Infrastructure Cost 1 0 0.5 1 HSDPA cost HSDPA capacity 802.11g cost 802.11g coverage 0.5 0 0.5 1 Voice 0 10 10 x voice 1 10 Average Traffic Density [Mbps/km2] 100 x voice Voice 2 10 (a) HSDPA cell radius 400m 0 10 10 x voice 1 10 Average Traffic Density [Mbps/km2] 100 x voice 2 10 (b) HSDPA cell radius 800m Fig. 2. Elasticity of infrastructure cost for an HSDPA and 802.11g multi-access network with respect to different changes in design parameters. The reference system is adapted for approximately 50 x voice traffic (left graph) and 10 x voice traffic (right graph). All but the changed variables are kept constant. decreased 802.11g cost coeffiecient, increased HSDPA BS capacity, and • increased 802.11g AP coverage. Elasticity of infrastructure cost with respect to the cost coefficients show how large share of the infrastructure cost that stems from each system. With 400m cell radius each subsystem stands for 50% of the cost at 90Mbps/km2 , while the crossover occurs at around 15Mbps/km2 with 800m cell radius. At 1Mbps/km2 only HSDPA base stations are deployed and there is hence over-capacity in the macro cell layer. We can also see that HSDPA capacity is more important to improve than 802.11g coverage at all studied traffic densities with 400m HSDPA cell radius. With more sparsely deployed HSDPA sites, however, infrastructure cost is more elastic to 802.11g AP coverage than HSDPA BS capacity for traffic densities above 50Mbps/km2 . Although not included in the graphs, simulations also show that the cost is perfectly inelastic to the capacity for 802.11g up to approximately 200Mbps/km2 . Note, though, that building operator deployed WLAN networks with full coverage probably is not feasible considering the great number of APs required so such a network is a bit hypothetical. Higher traffic densities than, e.g., 50Mbps/km2 are not likely to be implemented using the studied set of radio access technologies only. Instead the results for higher traffic densities suggest how cellular and WLAN like solutions should be improved if traffic increase in the future. In particular, we can see how important existing assets (i.e. previous deployment) of mobile network operators and requirements on traffic density are for the selection of radio access technology. • • IV. P OTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS OF CURRENT SYSTEMS Following this analysis of key parameters to improve in HSDPA and 802.11g if traffic increases we will discuss briefly how such improvements could be materialized. A. Capacity and coverage To start with, capacity (aggregate throughput) per site is of course a major issue for macro cells if traffic demand increases significantly. In the long run this is perhaps easiest solved via more spectrum bandwidth which, however, usually comes with a considerable cost. Advanced transmitter and receivers techniques, like Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems, are also promising. Naturally it is also beneficial to smoothen out traffic load over time, e.g. using inter-temporal pricing schemes or caching and pre-fetching solutions. Merely increasing capacity per site is not sufficient though. Also the cell range needs to be maintained to provide coverage also for higher peak data rates. This requires an improved link budget which, e.g., can be achieved through MIMO, higher masts, frequency spectrum in lower bands, or multihop relaying. Above all the link budget is very critical if broadband data services should be provided indoors using outdoor BSs. This is illustrated in Figure 3, where we have plotted the theoretical cell range in uplink for a conventional WCDMA macro cell. A few typical services are depicted in the graph according to standard link budgets presented in [2]. Already at 144kbps the maximum cell range is in the order 700m for indoor users. Hence, increasing peak data rate to 1Mbps reduces the nominal cell range from almost 700m to approximately 350m since the link budget is linearly proportional to the data rate (all else equal). To support even higher rates in a macro cellular network the link budget therefore needs to be improved. B. Cost per access point Continuing to the cost per AP, we have in Section III-B considered a reduction of the total cost, including investments and running costs. In Table I the main cost coefficients for the studied systems were listed. The base value has been e300k V. C ONCLUSIONS 2200 2000 1800 Cell range [m] 1600 Incar 12.2kbps speech user Outdoor 384kbps non realtime data user 1400 1200 1000 Indoor 144kbps realtime data user 800 600 COST231-Walfisch-Ikegami COST231-Hata 400 200 120 125 130 135 140 Allowed path loss [dB] 145 150 Fig. 3. Uplink range as a function of allowed path loss for urban WCDMA macro cells. A few typical services [2] are depicted in thegraph. for a single carrier HSDPA BS with an additional e10k per cell and e39k for 802.11g APs. As discussed in [6], the cost structure for new macro cells is today dominated by costs for site acquisition, buildout, installation and rental. In 802.11g however, ’last mile’transmission is a key contributor to the total infrastructure cost (followed by site rental). This is based on an assumption that a leased line is required per AP. Low-cost transmission alternatives, e.g. wireless (meshed) networks, could reduce OPEX to some extent. But it does not change the conclusion that coverage per 802.11g AP needs to be improved (with retained capacity) in order to lower the cost for operator deployed WLAN solutions. An alternative method to provide indoor coverage and capacity at a low cost could be to let users install APs in their own premises that are open for access to all the operator’s subscribers and roaming partners, e.g. using a Network Franchise business model. This solution seems promising in particular for operators with a strong position also in fixed access. C. Positioning of next generation radio access technologies The results also points at how a future 4G radio interface targeted for urban environments could be differentiated with respect to current main stream technologies for wireless data connectivity. Examples of niches not covered well by today’s systems for urban deployment are • high capacity micro cells, and • long range WLAN access points. In both cases we assume that the data rate at the cell border is significantly higher than in 3G. Without making explicit assumptions on required range and data rates, we can note that concepts similar to the gaps indicated by this study already have been proposed in different contexts; for example in the research program WINNER (recently initiated by the EU) and in similar initiatives. Numerical results on the infrastructure cost for a different 4G concepts are presented in [3]. Multi-access networks are useful in order to lower infrastructure costs for operators in the long run if geographical traffic density varies strongly. Also in the short run, it can be beneficial as a temporary solution before improved macro cell networks and more frequency spectrum are available. As an example, we have looked in more detail into an operator deployed network with macro cellular HSDPA base stations and IEEE 802.11g access points. For this system the total infrastructure cost was quantified for a city center environment using a stochastic (log-normal) model for heterogeneous traffic density. It was shown that an HSDPA cell radius between 400m and 800m minimize cost for average traffic densities during busy hour of 10-50Mbps/km2 . This approximately correspond to 10-50 times the traffic of private voice users today. For higher traffic densities, either a very dense macro cell layer, or a large amount of WLAN access points are needed and this is probably not feasible. We have also illustrated how elasticity of infrastructure cost can be used to effectively analyze what design parameters that are most important to improve in a multi-access wireless network. In the example with HSDPA and 802.11 the capacity per macro base station is more important to improve with 400m cell radius than 802.11g coverage up to 100Mbps/km2 . However, if HSDPA base stations are more sparsely deployed (800m radius) the same cost savings can be achieved through increasing the range of 802.11g already at 50Mbps/km2 . ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work has partly been sponsored by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research via the Affordable Wireless Services and Infrastructure Project. R EFERENCES [1] COST 231 Final Report, available at http://www.lx.it.pt/cost231/ [2] H. Holma and A. Toskala (editors), ”WCDMA for UMTS”, Third edition, John Wiley & Sons, 2004. [3] A. Furuskär, M. Almgren, and K. 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