Slide 1
Canberra Labour Market
May 2014
Presented by Ivan Neville
Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch
Department of Employment
www.employment.gov.au
Slide 2
How is the ACT labour market performing?
•
Unemployment rate remains below the national rate - 3.8 per cent as at
April 2014 compared with 5.8 per cent for Australia
•
Employment growth has slowed – 0.8 per cent over the year to April
2014, compared with 2.0 per cent growth for the previous year
- Significant decline in female full-time employment over the last year
•
Labour market conditions have been easing - recruitment activity falling,
increased competition for fewer vacancies
• One in three workers directly employed in the public sector – Federal
budget tightening likely to have a significant impact
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey,
April 2014 (12 month averages of original data); Department of Employment,
Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities , 2012 & 2013
How is the ACT labour market performing?
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data); Department
of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities , 2012 & 2013
As at April 2014, the unemployment rate for the ACT was 3.8 per cent, well below the national
rate of 5.8 per cent.
Employment growth in the ACT has slowed, recording growth of only 0.8 per cent over the 12
months to April 2014, compared with 2.0 per cent growth for the previous year. There has also
been a significant decline in the number of females employed full-time.
Labour market conditions have been easing in the ACT with recruitment activity falling and
increased competition for fewer vacancies.
With one in three workers directly employed in the public sector, federal budget tightening is
likely to have a significant impact.
Slide 3
Internet vacancies
200
ACT
GFC
Australia
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Source: Department of Employment, Vacancy Report, Trend Index, April 2014
Internet vacancies
Source: Department of Employment, Vacancy Report, Trend Index, April 2014
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-08
Jul-07
Oct-06
Jan-06
0
Slide 4
Consistently lower unemployment rate in the ACT…
7%
5.8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3.8%
2%
ACT
1%
Australia
Apr-14
Apr-13
Apr-12
Apr-11
Apr-10
Apr-09
Apr-08
Apr-07
Apr-06
Apr-05
Apr-04
0%
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data)
Consistently lower unemployment rate in the ACT…
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data)
The unemployment rate for the ACT was 3.8 per cent as at April 2014, well below the national
rate of 5.8 per cent.
Slide 5
…but youth unemployment remains a challenge…
14%
15-24 years
12%
All ages
10%
10.6%
8%
6%
4%
2%
3.8%
Apr-14
Apr-13
Apr-12
Apr-11
Apr-10
Apr-09
Apr-08
Apr-07
Apr-06
Apr-05
Apr-04
0%
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data)
…but youth unemployment remains a challenge…
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data)
In the ACT, for persons aged 15 to 24 years, the unemployment rate was 10.6 per cent as at
April 2014. This rate is significantly higher than the unemployment rate at for all ages (3.8 per
cent).
Slide 6
…and young people respond by staying in education longer
90%
70%
80%
60%
70%
50%
60%
15-19 attending school/tertiary education full-time (LHS)
20-24 attending school/tertiary education full-time (LHS)
15-19 employed full-time (RHS)
20-24 employed full-time (RHS)
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
0%
Apr-12
0%
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data)
…and young people respond by staying in education longer
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, April 2014 (12 month averages of original data)
Over the past two years, an increasing proportion of young people (aged 15 to 24) are attending
school or tertiary education full-time and a smaller proportion are working full-time.
Slide 7
Young people who stay do better
Of those aged 15-18 living in the ACT in 2006…
82%
18%
lived in the ACT in 2011
lived elsewhere in 2011
72%
Employed
81%
Employed
Unemployment Rate
5.7%
Unemployment Rate
10.0%
Participation Rate
86.1%
Participation Rate
80.0%
Attending Education Institution
46%
Attending Education Institution
47%
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Young people who stay do better
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Of those aged 15 to 18 years living in the ACT in 2006, 82 per cent were also living in the ACT at
the time of the 2006 Census.
Compared with the 18 per cent who were living elsewhere in 2011, the people who stayed were
more likely to be employed and had a lower unemployment rate.
Slide 8
What are the 15-19 year olds doing?
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
At the time of the 2011 Census, 83 per cent of 15 to 19 year olds living in the ACT were
studying. Of those studying, 38 per cent were also working while 45 per cent were studying
only.
Slide 9
What are the 15-19 year olds doing?
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
At the time of the 2011 Census, 17 per cent of 15 to 19 year olds living in the ACT were not
studying. Of those not studying, 13 per cent were employed while 4 per cent were either
unemployed or not in the labour force.
Slide 10
Largest employing industries
Total employed, ACT
Public Administration and Safety
33%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
10%
Health Care and Social Assistance
10%
Education and Training
9%
Retail Trade
7%
Construction
7%
Accommodation and Food Services
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages of original data)
Largest employing industries
Total employed, ACT
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages of original data)
Public Administration and Safety is the largest employing industry, accounting for one third of
total employment in the ACT. Professional and, Scientific and Technical Services and Health Care
and Social Assistance are also large employing industries in the ACT.
Slide 11
Structural change in the ACT labour market
35%
32.7%
1994
30%
2014
26.3%
25%
20%
15%
9.6%
10%
9.6%
7.9%
10.4%
9.0%
9.9%
7.4%
6.3%
6.0% 6.7%
7.3%
5.7%
5%
0%
Public
Professional,
Health Care and
Administration
Scientific and
Social Assistance
and Safety
Technical Services
Education and
Training
Retail Trade
Construction
Accommodation
and Food Services
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages of original data)
Structural change in the ACT labour market
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages of original data)
This chart illustrates how the ACT’s industry employment composition has changed over the last
20 years. Even 20 years ago, Public Administration and Safety was the largest employing
industry in the ACT.
Slide 12
Ongoing shift to higher skilled jobs
High skill (levels 1 and 2)
Medium skill (levels 3 and 4)
Low skill (level 5)
Change in share of employment (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Feb-2014
Aug-2013
Feb-2013
Feb-2012
Aug-2012
Feb-2011
Aug-2011
Feb-2010
Aug-2010
Aug-2009
Feb-2009
Aug-2008
Feb-2008
Feb-2007
Aug-2007
Feb-2006
Aug-2006
Feb-2005
Aug-2005
Aug-2004
Feb-2004
-15
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003,
Department of Employment trend.
Ongoing shift to higher skilled jobs
Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Department of
Employment trend.
The attainment of educational qualifications remains important given the strong past and
projected growth of higher skilled occupations, as well as the lower unemployment rates
recorded for people with higher qualifications.
Looking over the 10 year period from August 2003 to August 2013, it is clear that jobs at the
higher skill levels (Skill Level 1, commensurate with a Bachelor degree or higher qualification
and Skill Level 2, commensurate with an Associate Degree, Advanced Diploma or Diploma)) are
increasing as a proportion of overall employment – up from 37.0 per cent to 41.1 per cent. At
the same time, jobs at the lowest skill level (Skill Level 5, commensurate with compulsory
secondary education or a Certificate I) are diminishing as a proportion of total employment
from 19.9 per cent to 17.5 per cent.
What this means for school leavers is that yes, you may get a job when you leave school, BUT
you may not experience the same employment stability or earn as much as those students
whose education choices set them up for a career, rather than a series of low skilled jobs.
The key technical and trade group at skill level 3, corresponding to a Certificate IV or a formal
apprenticeship, is declining as a share of employment, but growth rates vary considerably
within this category (see next slide).
Note: This chart plots the percentage change in the percentage shares of employment from
August 2003 onward. Source: ABS Labour Force Survey data to August 2013, seasonally
adjusted and trended by the Department of Employment.
Slide 13
Recent occupation growth in the ACT
Change in persons employed in the 12 months to February 2014
Occupation
Annual growth
(persons employed)
Contract, Program and Project Administrators
2620
Midwifery and Nursing Professionals
1420
Accounting Clerks and Bookkeepers
1150
Logistics Clerks
1080
General Clerks
860
Architects, Designers, Planners and Surveyors
730
Tertiary Education Teachers
600
Social and Welfare Professionals
590
Financial Brokers and Dealers, and Investment Advisers
520
Health Diagnostic and Promotion Professionals
490
Bricklayers, and Carpenters and Joiners
470
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages of original data)
Recent occupation growth in the ACT
Change in persons employed in the 12 months to February 2014
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages of original data)
In the 12 months to February 2014, the largest growing occupations in the ACT were Contract,
Program and Project Administrators, Midwifery and Nursing Professionals and Accounting
Clerks and Bookkeepers.
Slide 14
Literacy and numeracy for year 9 students
Proportion of students not at the national minimum standard
9%
8%
7%
ACT
7.8%
Australia
6.2%
6%
5.5%
5.0%
5%
4.6%
4%
3%
2.5%
2%
1%
0%
Reading
Spelling
Numeracy
Source: 2013 NAPLAN National Report
Literacy and numeracy for year 9 students
Proportion of students not at the national minimum standard
Source: 2013 NAPLAN National Report
A smaller proportion of year 9 students in the ACT are not meeting the national minimum
standard for reading, spelling and numeracy compared with the average for Australia.
Slide 15
Levels of educational attainment
Persons aged 25-34 years
% completed
Yr 12
or higher
% attained
Advanced Diploma,
% attained
Diploma or
Bachelor Degree
Certificate III/IV
or higher
Level
Australian Capital Territory
93%
23%
51%
Australia
85%
30%
35%
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Levels of educational attainment
Persons aged 25-34 years
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
At the time of the 2011 Census, a higher proportion of 25 to 34 year olds had completed Year
12 or higher (93 per cent) compared with Australia (85 per cent).
Over half of 25 to 34 years olds in the ACT had also attained a Bachelor Degree or higher.
Slide 16
Educational attainment and labour market outcomes
ACT, persons aged 25-34 years
13.7%
14%
12%
90.9%
91.1%
100%
90%
92.0%
85.4%
80.0%
72.1%
10%
70%
8.4%
8%
80%
Unemployment Rate (LHS)
60%
Participation Rate (RHS)
50%
6%
40%
3.8%
4%
2.2%
2.2%
30%
20%
2.1%
2%
10%
0%
0%
Bachelor Degree or
Advanced
Certificate Level III
higher
Diploma/Diploma
& IV
Year 12
Certificate I & II
Below Year 12
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Educational attainment and labour market outcomes
ACT, persons aged 25-34 years
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (Figures are for the highest level of
education attained)
This chart demonstrates the positive relationship between educational attainment and labour
market outcomes.
In the ACT, those who hadn’t completed Year 12 or had a Certificate I/II as their highest level of
education faced low rates of labour force participation and high rates of unemployment.
Slide 17
What are employers
telling us?
Slide 18
Recruitment conditions have eased
2012
2013
All Capital Cities
2013
Recruitment activity
Recruited for staff
85%
82%
74%
Increased staff numbers
28%
20%
22%
Annual vacancies per 100 staff
12.1
10.3
10.0
Recruitment difficulty
Applicants per vacancy
6.0
8.0
12.2
Experienced recruitment difficulty
53%
53%
42%
10.2%
8.3%
7.3%
Unfilled vacancies
Recruitment expectations
Expected to increase staff
27%
22%
26%
Expected to decrease staff
7%
12%
9%
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’
Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities , 2012 & 2013
Recruitment conditions have eased
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital
Cities, 2012 & 2013
Labour market conditions have softened significantly in Canberra where a growing number of
employers reported reducing staff numbers in the six months prior to the survey.
Recruitment conditions in the six months following the survey were expected to continue to
ease with a large number of employers anticipating further reductions in staff numbers.
Slide 19
Recruiting employers
who experienced
difficulty
Higher skilled occupations
71%
16% of vacancies unfilled
Lower skilled occupations
41%
5% of vacancies unfilled
24% of vacancies for Technicians
and Trades Workers went unfilled
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’
Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities , 2013
Recruiting employers who experienced difficulty
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital
Cities, 2013
Employers in Canberra still experienced recruitment difficulty recruiting for both higher
(71 per cent) and lower (41 per cent) skilled positions.
Slide 20
Some employers do not formally advertise vacancies
Formal methods
84%
Internet
Newspaper
Company Website
9 applicants
per vacancy,
3 rated suitable
Informal methods ONLY
Word of Mouth
16%
Approached by
Job seeker
4 applicants
per vacancy,
2 rated suitable
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’
Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities , 2013
Some employers do not formally advertise vacancies
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital
Cities, 2013
In Canberra, 84 per cent of employers used a formal method of recruitment in their most recent
recruitment round including use of the internet, newspaper and company website. On average,
formal recruitment methods attracted 9 applicants per vacancy of which 3 were considered
suitable by the employer.
16 per cent of employers used an informal method ONLY, most commonly word of mouth and
being approached by the job seeker. On average, using an informal method only attracted 4
applicants of which 2 were considered suitable by the employer.
Slide 21
Reasons applicants didn’t get an interview
60%
52%
74% of
applicants
don’t get an
interview
50%
40%
30%
24%
20%
18%
15%
14%
14%
Interview not
required
Applicant located
overseas/ out of
area
10%
0%
Lack of relevant
experience
Insufficient
Poorly
Lack of soft skills
qualifications or written/presented
training
application
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment
Experiences, All regions in the 12 months to March 2014
Reasons applicants didn’t get an interview
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions
in the 12 months to March 2014
On average, 74 per cent of applicants so no get an interview.
When asked why applicants didn’t get an interview, 52 per cent of employers mentioned that a
lack of relevant experience was a factor.
Slide 22
Improving young people’s chances of getting a job –
employers’ views
45%
40%
39%
35%
30%
25%
20%
14%
15%
11%
10%
11%
7%
7%
6%
7%
5%
5%
3%
3%
0%
Attitude
Reliability &
responsibility
Physical
Communication
presentation
Realistic
role/salary
expectations
Improving attitude to work and basic employability skills
Work
Experience
Further
education &
training
Higher quality Funding for Increase career
schooling
apprenticeships expos/career
& traineeships information
Further develop job skills
Change
employer
attitudes
Other
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’
Recruitment Experiences, Gladstone ESA, Bundaberg-Hervey Bay PEA,
Central Victoria PEA, October – December 2013
Improving young people’s chances of getting a job? – employers’ views
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Gladstone
ESA, Bundaberg-Hervey Bay PEA, Central Victoria PEA, October – December 2013
The results in this report are based on 1151 responding employers who were surveyed between
October-December 2013 in the Gladstone Employment Service Area (ESA), the BundabergHervey Bay Priority Employment Area (PEA) and the Central Victoria PEA. Some employers
provided more than one response.
Slide 23
Employability skills essential
What employers considered essential in an applicant
71% of employers said that personality traits/qualities are more or
equally as important as technical skills
• Enthusiastic/positive attitude
• Interact/connect with others/teamwork
• Hardworking/good work ethic
• Communicate
• Make good decisions
• Reliable
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’
Recruitment Experiences, December 2013; All regions surveyed in the 12 months to Dec 2010.
Employability skills essential
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, December
2013, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2010
Employers want people who can/have
•
Enthusiastic/positive attitude
•
Interact/connect with others/teamwork
•
Hardworking/good work ethic
•
Communicate (higher order skill – e.g. hold an argument)
•
Make good decisions
•
Reliable
Slide 24
Future expectations of surveyed employers
ANTICIPATED STAFF CHANGE
ANTICIPATED STAFF INCREASES
30%
26%
25%
Canberra
All Capital Cities
22%
20%
15%
Accommodation and Food
Services
26%
Health Care and Social
Assistance
26%
Construction
25%
12%
9%
10%
Professional, Scientific and
Technical Services
20%
5%
Retail Trade
0%
Increase Staff
Decrease Staff
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’
Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities , 2013
Future expectations of surveyed employers
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital
Cities, 2013
In Canberra, a smaller proportion of employers (22 per cent) anticipated the need to increase
staff numbers in the following months compared with the average for all cities combined (26
per cent). A higher proportion (12 per cent) anticipated having to decrease staff numbers in the
near future compared with the average for all cities combined (9 per cent).
Employers in the Accommodation and Food Services and Health Care and Social Assistance
industries were most likely to increase staff numbers in the six months following the survey.
Slide 25
Where will the jobs be?
National projected employment growth (‘000) – five years to November 2018
Health Care and Social Assistance
Education and Training
Retail Trade
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Public Administration and Safety
Administrative and Support Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Other Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Wholesale Trade
Arts and Recreation Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
229.4
118.8
98.2
88.7
83.5
55.2
48.5
37.3
32.1
20.7
20.5
19.9
15.6
15.1
9.8
0.2
-2.8
-12.3
-40.3
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Source: Department of Employment, 2014 Employment Projections to November 2018
Where will the jobs be?
National projected employment growth (‘000) – five years to November 2018
Source: Department of Employment, 2014 Employment Projections to November 2018.
Slide 26
Conclusion
Unemployment remains low but conditions easing
• Employment growth slowing
• Vacancies falling
• Increased competition for jobs
Challenges for the region
• Public service cuts
• Unemployment rate for young people much higher and increasing
Opportunities
• Strong growth industries: Health Care and Social Assistance
• Unfilled vacancies for many higher skilled occupations, particularly Trades Workers
Job seekers require
• Education / training
• Employability skills
• Work experience / apprenticeships
• Literacy and numeracy
Collaborate with key stakeholders
Conclusion
Unemployment remains low but conditions easing
Employment growth slowing
Vacancies falling
Increased competition for jobs
Challenges for the region
Public service cuts
Unemployment rate for young people much higher and increasing
Opportunities
Strong growth industries: Health Care and Social Assistance
Unfilled vacancies for many higher skilled occupations, particularly Trades Workers
Job seekers require
Education / training
Employability skills
Work experience / apprenticeships
Literacy and numeracy
Collaborate with key stakeholders
Slide 27
Further Information
– www.employment.gov.au/lmip
– www.employment.gov.au/skillshortages
– www.employment.gov.au/regionalreports
– www.employment.gov.au/australianjobs
– www.joboutlook.gov.au
Further Information
More information on labour market conditions and other research on small areas can be found
on these web sites
•
•
•
•
•
www.employment.gov.au/LMIP
www.employment.gov.au/SkillShortages
www.employment.gov.au/RegionalReports
www.employment.gov.au/australianjobs
www.joboutlook.gov.au
A report on the survey findings for the fourth annual Survey of Employers’ Recruitment
Experiences in Capital Cities has been placed on the regional reports section of the Department
of Employment - Regional Reports web site.
Thank you.
Slide 28