Analysis of Traffic Flow and Capacity at the Beck Street Work Zone Adam John Leslie A project submitted to the faculty of Brigham Young University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Mitsuru Saito, Chair Grant G. Schultz W. Spencer Guthrie Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Brigham Young University August 2012 Copyright © 2012 Adam John Leslie All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT Analysis of Traffic Flow and Capacity at the Beck Street Work Zone Adam John Leslie Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, BYU Master of Science Work zone capacity has been a significant issue, but capacity data at work zones have been collected only sporadically. The Highway Capacity Manual 2000 provides only a limited discussion of this issue. As more rehabilitation or reconstruction of existing highways take place, it becomes essential that Utah Department of Transportation traffic engineers have proper capacity estimates for different work zone configurations. These configurations include partial lane closures, shoulder closures, narrowed lanes and lane crossings. Proper capacity estimates are essential in order to correctly estimate capacities for these work zone control measures, estimate possible queues that would be formed, and evaluate the effects of different work zone traffic control measures on queue mitigation. The Beck Street work zone was selected for this study because it provides information about Interstate 15, which is the most used corridor in the Salt Lake City area. After models for flow rate, density, and speed were completed, the overall capacity of the Beck Street work zone after experiencing a lane reduction from 3 to 2 lanes was determined to be approximately 1,350 vehicles per hour per lane (veh/h/ln), much lower than a typical one freeway lane capacity of approximately 2,000 veh/h/ln, but only slightly lower than expected for a work zone based on an average of 1512 veh/h/ln from similar studies. Keywords: work zone, capacity, traffic flow model ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank my graduate advisor, Dr. Mitsuru Saito, for all of his help with coursework and with this project. I never could have learned so much about traffic and transportation engineering without his help. I also thank Aaron Wilson since this project could not have been completed without the initial research and data collection done by him at the Beck Street work zone. I am also grateful for the support from the members of my graduate committee, Dr. Grant G. Schultz and Dr. W. Spencer Guthrie. I am grateful for all of the support from my family. My parents have supported me at all times and I will never be able to thank them enough. Most of all, without the support from my wife, Roxanne Leslie, I would never have been able to complete this project. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... ix 1 2 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives ....................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Organization of the Report ............................................................................................. 3 Literature Review ................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Previous Studies .............................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Modeling ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 9 3 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 11 4 Traffic Flow Analysis and Flow Models ........................................................................... 13 5 4.1 Data Preparation ........................................................................................................... 13 4.2 Traffic Flow Models ..................................................................................................... 14 4.3 Capacity ........................................................................................................................ 18 4.4 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 19 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 21 References .................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix A. Examples of Data for a Typical Congested Day ............................................... 25 v vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Work Zone Capacities from Previous Studies ..............................................................6 Table 2-2: Equations for Curves in Figure 2-1 ...............................................................................7 Table 5-1: Work Zone Capacities from This and Previous Studies..............................................22 vii viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Sensor locations between 400 S and just north of 600 N on I-15 ................................2 Figure 2-1: Speed - flow rate curves for basic freeway segments ..................................................7 Figure 2-2: Greenberg model with equation ...................................................................................8 Figure 2-3: Bell curve model with equation. ..................................................................................8 Figure 4-1: Sample of raw data.....................................................................................................13 Figure 4-2: Statistical model of average speed vs. flow rate using JMP. .....................................15 Figure 4-3: Speed vs. flow rate with statistical model overlay. ....................................................16 Figure 4-4: Speed vs. density with statistical and Greenberg’s model combination overlay .......17 Figure A-1: Speed distribution for a typical day. .........................................................................25 Figure A-2: Speed vs. density for a typical congested day at sensor 5 .........................................25 Figure A-3: Speed vs. flow rate for a typical congested day at sensor 5. .....................................26 Figure A-4: Flow rate vs. density for a typical congested day at sensor 5. ..................................26 ix x 1 INTRODUCTION Work zone capacity has been a significant issue, but capacity data at work zones have been collected only sporadically. The Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM 2000) (TRB 2000) provides only a limited discussion of this issue. The 2010 version contains additional work zone information but does not yet offer information from traffic studies performed in the state of Utah (TRB 2010). However, as more rehabilitation or reconstruction of existing highways take place, it becomes essential that Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) traffic engineers have proper capacity estimates for different work zone configurations, such as a partial lane closure, shoulder closure, narrowed lanes, lane crossing, etc., in order to correctly estimate capacities for these work zone control measures, estimate possible queues that would be formed, and evaluate the effects of different work zone traffic control measures on queue mitigation. Saito et al. worked on an evaluation of a variable advisory speed system (VASS) on queue mitigation, using the northbound approach to the I-15 Beck Street widening work zone as a test site in March 2010 through June 2010 (Saito and Wilson 2011). In addition to the widening, several bridges were being replaced and a high occupancy (HOV) lane was being added. Data for this study came from March 2010 and April 2010 before the VASS system was installed so that the VASS would not confound any results of this study. As depicted in Figure 1-1, a VASS was set up for the northbound direction using the equipment rented from ASTI 1 Transporrtation. Thiss data colleection prod duced a larrge amount data (voluume, speed,, and occupanccy) that can be b used to an nalyze traffic flow charaacteristics annd capacity aat this work zone. Fiigure 1-1: Sen nsor locations between 400 S and just norrth of 600 N oon I-15 (Saito aand Wilson 20011). Work W zone capacity c neeeds to be ev valuated forr the Beck S Street work zone becauuse it representts a common n scenario for fo Utah freeeways. The effects of a reduction ffrom 3 to 2 lanes 2 may be predicted more easily when hard data exists to support an estimated capacity for the two lanes. 1.1 Objectives There are two primary objectives of this study. The first is to analyze the traffic flow rate data collected at the VASS test site (I-15 Beck Street Work Zone), create fundamental diagrams of traffic flow, and develop traffic flow models for the work zone. The second objective is to determine capacity of the approach during lane closure at the test site. 1.2 Organization of the Report This report consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the background of the study and its objectives. Chapter 2 reviews relevant work zone studies related to this project and mathematical models that are used to explain the relationships among flow rate, speed, and density. Chapter 3 summarizes the methodology used during this research. Chapter 4 presents the data preparation, traffic flow models used, and how capacity was estimated. Chapter 5 provides conclusions for this project. 3 4 2 LITERATURE REVIEW It is important to understand what previous researchers have done on work zone capacity and learn the modeling strategies used in their studies in order to determine if results obtained for this study are viable. 2.1 Previous Studies The HCM 2000 defines two different types of construction zones, long-term and short- term (TRB 2000). Short-term construction zones are temporary lane closures that have an estimated capacity of 1600 veh/h/ln regardless of lane-closure configuration. Long-term construction zones are further defined by their lane reductions, such as 4 to 1 or 4 to 2 lanes. The HCM 2000 gives only a range of values for 3 normal lanes to 2 open lanes as 1,780 to 2,060 veh/h/ln. Values given in Exhibit 10-14 of the HCM 2010 range from 1,170 veh/h/ln to 2,100 veh/h/ln, as shown in Table 2-1, depending on lane closure type and states where studies have been performed (TRB 2010). Also included in Table 2-1 are results from a study performed by researchers at North Carolina State University, which offer additional information about capacity after lanes have been reduced (Fowler et al. 2011). In a third study, from the National University of Singapore, work zone capacities in Maryland and Texas were evaluated (Weng and Meng 2010). The studies from both North Carolina State and the National University of Singapore include results from other sources as well (Krammes and Lopez 1994). 5 Table 2-1: Work Zone Capacities from Previous Studies (Fowler et al 2011). State IA MA MD MO NC TX VA WI Normal lanes to reduced lanes 3 to 2 4 to 2 1,400-1,600 1,400-1,600 1,490 1,480 1,408 1,430 1,420 1,840 1,850 1,402 1,300 1,300 1,800-2,100 These studies represent capacity analyses that have been performed in eight states other than Utah. From Table 2-1, the average capacity in a 3 to 2 lane reduction scenario is 1,512 veh/h/ln and it is 1,539 veh/h/ln for a 4 to 2 lane reduction scenario. 2.2 Modeling For uncongested flow, the HCM 2010 provides base speed flow rate curves for freeways as shown in Figure 2-1. This type of model shows speed as a constant until a break-point in the flow rate is reached, and then speeds begin to decrease. Each break-point varies depending on the initial free-flow speed, and, for each reduction of speed at a break-point, there are different equations used to determine speed for different free-flow speed levels (Roess et al. 2011). Table 2-2 shows equations for these lines that model the curves after each break point. 6 Figu ure 2-1: Speeed - flow rate curves c for bassic freeway seggments (TRB 2010). Table 2-2: Equations E forr Curves in Figgure 2-1 (Roesss et al., 2011)). FFS Break-P oint Flow Rate Range (pc/h/ln n) ≥ 0 ≤ Brreak-Point > Break-Poin nt Capacity ≤ Capacity (mi//h) 75 5 1,000 0 75 75-0.000 001107(vp-1,0 000) 2 70 0 1,200 0 70 70-0.000 001160(vp-1,2 200) 2 65 5 1,400 0 65 65-0.000 001418(vp-1,4 400) 2 60 0 1,600 0 60 60-0.000 001816(vp-1,6 600) 2 55 5 1,800 0 55 55-0.000 002469(vp-1,8 800) 2 Another A mod del is the maathematical statistical aapproach as typified in the Greenshhields model, sh hown in Equ uation 2-1. Using this model, m free-fflow speed aand jam dennsity may be used to predicct speeds forr vehicles when w the den nsity along a given roaddway is knoown (Fricker and Whitford d 2004). 7 ∗ (2-1) Two T other models relevaant to this prroject are thee Greenbergg model, shoown in Figurre 2-2 and the Bell-shaped B curve c modell, shown in Figure F 2-3. Fiigure 2-2: Grreenberg modeel with equatioon (Gerlough and Huber 19975). Figure F 2-3: Beell curve modeel with equatioon (Gerlough and Huber 19975). The T Greenberrg model waas originally y developed to evaluate speed-densiity data setss with particularr attention given to th he congesteed portion. Greenbergg concludedd, in contraast to Greenshiields, that a nonlinear approach a to modeling sppeed-densityy might be m more approppriate 8 (Gerlough and Huber 1975). The Greenberg model is typically seen as a one-regime model, but it also comes in a form where it uses a two-regime approach where the free-flow speed remains constant until it reaches a specified congestion point where the density is higher. Greenberg's model is useful for high concentrations, but not for low concentrations because of its logarithmic function (Gerlough and Huber 1975). The Bell-shaped curve model was developed by Joseph Drake in 1967. The Bell-shaped curve model was developed after examining 1,224 data points collected half a mile upstream from a bottleneck on the middle lane of the Eisenhower Expressway in Chicago. It is a regression analysis of speed on density and proposes use of a bell-shaped or normal curve as a model of speed-concentration. 2.3 Summary This chapter introduced different work zone capacities reported by previous researchers and four different ways to model traffic conditions, including brief explanations of each of them. These models include the HCM speed flow rate curves, Greenshields’ linear model, Greenberg’s two-regime approach, and Bell-shaped curve model. Each model provides information that can be used to compute capacity of a roadway. 9 10 3 METHODOLOGY Five sensors, each at a different location, leading to the Beck Street work zone in the northbound direction gathered data for volume, speed, and occupancy. The sensor locations are displayed in Figure 1-1. Since one of the goals of this study is to determine capacity of the work zone, the analysis focused on days when average speeds fell below 50 mph for a cumulative minimum of one hour, which was used to identify “congested” traffic conditions. Choosing a time of one hour served to eliminate days from the study that did not experience significant congestion. The days that meet this criterion were compiled into one dataset which is represented visually as a scatter plot. Using the scatter plot as a guide, several models were overlaid onto the data to explain the behavior of traffic for speed vs. flow rate and for speed vs. density. The element that is most unique to this study is the statistical model that had to be modified with a break point. A break point needed to be found because, if left unmodified, the polynomial equation suggests that speed increases as flow rate increases, which is clearly illogical. By using a constant speed until the break point, the modified version of the polynomial equation shows that speed is unaffected by flow rate until a certain point, which is the break point. The polynomial equation for the statistical model allows either speed or flow rate to be calculated, depending on which is known, by using Equation 3-1. 11 62.79 0.00177 ∗ ∗ 10 6.91 ∗ 462.55 ^2 (3-1) For example, in Equations 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4, which show a sequential solution of Equation 3-1 for a flow rate of 0 veh/h/ln, the following result is obtained. 62.79 0.001767 ∗ 0 62.79 1.48 61.3 6.91 ∗ 10 ∗ 0 462.553 (3-2) (3-3) (3-4) According to the modified polynomial model, any speed higher than this y-intercept of 61.3 mph is unusable because it does not describe the true behavior of the study site in the Beck Street work zone. Therefore, when the speed finally does fall below 61.3 mph, the flow rate truly has an effect. The flow rate for this break point may be found by substituting 61.3 mph in the statistical model equation as shown in Equations 3-5 and 3-6. 61.3 62.79 ∗ 10 0 1.48 0.00177 ∗ 0.00177 ∗ 6.91 ∗ 6.91 ∗ 10 462.55 ^2 ∗ 462.55 ^2 (3-5) (3-6) Simple use of a graphing calculator at this point shows that the flow rate at the break point is equal to 669 veh/h/ln. 12 4 TRA AFFIC FLO OW ANALY YSIS AND FLOW F MOD DELS For this stud dy, useful data needed d to be firrst identifieed, and thenn compiled into ots in order to learn morre about thee informationn that had been collecteed. Mathematical scatterplo models were w applied to the data to t show whaat the maxim mum capacityy was for thiis work zonee. 4.1 Da ata Preparattion Raw R data fro om the senso ors, as exem mplified in F Figure 4-1, pprovided vollume, speedd, and occupanccy data. Thiis informatio on allowed fo or the flow rrate and denssity to be dettermined. Figure 4-1: 4 Sample o f raw data. 13 Data sets from each day that experienced significant congestion were combined into one table that has speeds, flow rates, and densities, producing a total of 6,172 data points for analysis. A day with significant congestion experiences speeds of lower than 50 mph for a minimum of one hour. Prior to combining all datasets that met the criterion for a congested day, each day was examined individually by plotting the speed vs. flow rate, flow rate vs. density, and speed vs. density for each of the five sensors. An example analysis of data from one sensor for one day is shown in Appendix A. This study includes eight different dates with significant congestion, representing six different weeks during the study. With all data points identified, the data was used to create three separate plots: speed vs. flow rate, flow rate vs. density, and speed vs. density. For these plots, all points that lie below 50 mph represent congested conditions, while the remaining points represent uncongested conditions. 4.2 Traffic Flow Models Using statistical analysis software, known only by the acronym “JMP” (Sall 2012), a polynomial equation, shown in Figure 4-2 and Equation 4-1, could be fit to the speed vs. flow rate scatter plot with 95% confidence, according to the JMP software. This model provides a fit for the data points representing uncongested conditions in the study. 62.79 0.00177 ∗ 6.91 ∗ 10 14 ∗ 462.55 ^2 (4-1) Figure F 4-2: Sttatistical model of average sspeed vs. flow w rate using JM MP. In n a similar manner to the t HCM model m for freeeways, thiss statistical m model requiires a break-point to avoid d the problem m of increassing speed w with increassing flow ratte. As show wn in Figure 4-3, 4 the breaak-point for the data seet representting uncongeested condittions lies att 669 veh/h/ln, which correesponds to an a average speed of 61.33 mph in Eqquation 3-4. The break point was determined to be 669 veh/h//ln since it is i the first pooint where tthe speed beegins to decrrease, according g to the statiistical polyn nomial modeel shown in F Figure 4-2. Since the sttart of decreeasing speed (w where the breeak point beg gins) is identtical to wherre the flow rrate is zero, the y-interceept of 61.3 mph h (shown by y a horizontaal green line)) may be useed in the equuation associated with F Figure 4-2 to so olve for the flow rate, which w gives a value of 6669 veh/h/ln (shown by a vertical yeellow line). Th herefore, thee equation sh hown with Figure 4-2 shhould only be used for a flow rate grreater than 669 veh/h/ln. Each E point on n the scatter plot represeents a 3-minuute block of time from oone of the days in the study, with pointss associated with speeds below 50 m mph shown tooward the boottom 15 of the graph in red, as they indicate congested conditions. As opposed to the red dots shown in Figure 4-3, the blue dots towards the top of the graph indicate non-congested conditions. 90 80 70 Speed (mi/hr) 60 50 Uncongested 40 Congested Statistical Model 30 20 10 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Flowrate (veh/h/ln) Figure 4-3: Speed vs. flow rate with statistical model overlay. On a speed vs. density scatter plot, the break point lies at 10.9 veh/mi/ln, since density is equal to flow rate (669 veh/h/ln) divided by speed (61.3 mph). As in Figure 4-3, the statistical model once again represents uncongested data. To completely model the speed vs. density data, a second model was introduced. Shown in Figure 4-4, the Greenberg model provided the best fit for data representing congested conditions, with a density higher than 22.1 veh/mi/ln. The value of 22.1 veh/mi/ln was determined by setting the statistical model equation equal to the Greenberg model equation, presented as Equation 4-2, and using the intersection of the two equations so the final model would have no overlapping outputs. 16 62.79 462.553 ^2 0.00177 ∗ ∗ 61.3 6.908 ∗ 10 ∗ ∗ 61.3 55 ∗ ln (4-2) The Greenberg model was used in this case because the data representing congested conditions did not fit well with a pure statistical model because the scattered data points caused speeds at higher densities to be underestimated; hence, by using a Greenberg two-regime model, previously shown in Figure 2-2, this problem was resolved. Points along the upper bound, which represent congested conditions, were used for the model since they fit well with the model. 90 80 70 Speed (mi/hr) 60 50 Uncongested 40 Congested Statistical Model 30 Greenberg 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Density (veh/mi/ln) Figure 4-4: Speed vs. density with statistical and Greenberg’s model combination overlay. By using the constant speed in the statistical model until the break point is reached, the model for speed vs. density actually becomes a three-regime model. As shown in Figure 4-4, the 17 speed remains constant at 61.3 mph until speed multiplied by density is equal to the previously established break point of 669 veh/h/ln (10.9 veh/mi/ln). For densities beyond the break point, the statistical model equation is used as before, with speed multiplied by density replacing flow rate as shown in Equations 4-3 and 4-4 up to a density of 22.1 veh/mi/ln. 62.79 10 0.00177 ∗ ∗ 62.79 10 ∗ ∗ 0.00177 ∗ ∗ 6.908 ∗ 462.553 ^2 ∗ 61.3 ∗ 61.3 (4-3) 6.908 ∗ 462.553 ^2 (4-4) For density values greater than 22.1 veh/mi/ln, Equations 4-5 and 4-6 are used for the third regime of the model. ∗ ln 55 ∗ ln 4.3 (4-5) (4-6) Capacity Examining the trend of congested data from Figure 4-3 and combining that with the statistical model generated in Figure 4-2, the capacity of the work zone is approximately 1,350 veh/h/ln. This capacity is shown again in Figure 4-4 since a maximum density of 24.5 veh/h/ln multiplied by a speed of 55 mph is equal to a capacity of 1,350 veh/h/ln. The statistical model that fits well with the data representing uncongested conditions was used as a guide and compared to the trend of data representing congested conditions. 18 4.4 Summary This chapter explains how traffic flow data taken at the Beck Street work zone was compiled and analyzed to develop traffic flow models and determine the capacity of the work zone. Statistical software was used, along with a break point, to model to generate models that represent uncongested conditions of the work zone traffic flow. Greenberg’s model was used to model the data that represents congested conditions. In the end a three-regime model was developed to explain the relationship among work zone speed, flow rate and density and the capacity of the Beck Street work zone was determined to be 1,350 veh/h/ln. 19 20 5 CONCLUSION This research was conducted to determine the capacity of the north approach to the Beck Street work zone located on Interstate 15 in Salt Lake City Utah. Data were collected on eight different days over six different weeks, a statistical approach was used to develop a model for the data representing uncongested conditions, and Greenberg’s two-regime model was used to develop a model for the data representing congested conditions. Greenberg’s two-regime model was further modified to include a third regime for this study so that both congested and uncongested could be accurately modeled. After the models for flow rate, density, and speed were completed, the overall capacity of this area was determined to be approximately 1,350 veh/h/ln. The highest observed capacity of 1,320 veh/h/ln is only 30 veh/h/ln less than where the statistical model and trend of data representing congested conditions intersect. As shown in Table 5-1, the results of this study have yielded a capacity that seems slightly lower than expected when compared to the values produced in previous studies, but the capacity obtained in this study still seems reasonable in comparison to what has already been observed in other states. 21 Table 5-1: Work Zone Capacities from This and Previous Studies. State IA MA MD MO NC TX VA WI UT Normal lanes to reduced lanes 3 to 2 4 to 2 1,400-1,600 1,400-1,600 1,490 1,480 1,408 1,430 1,420 1,840 1,850 1,402 1,300 1,300 1,800-2,100 1,350 (This study) 22 REFERENCES Fowler, T., Schroeder, B., Sajjadi, S., and Rouphail, N. (2012). Estimating Work Zone Capacity from Point Sensors: Challenges and Lessons Learned. Paper No. 12-3589, Compendium of Papers DVD of the 91st Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington D.C., 13-14. Fricker, J. and Whitford, R. (2004). Fundamentals of Transportation Engineering: A Multimodal Approach, 1st ed. Pearson Higher Education Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. Gerlough, D. and Huber, M. (1975). Traffic Flow Theory: A Monograph. Special Report 165. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 49-57. Krammes, R.A. and Lopez, G.O. (1994). Updated Capacity Values for Short-Term Freeway Work Zone Lane Closure. Transportation Research Record 1442, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington D.C., 49-56. Roess, R., Prassas, E., and McShane, W. (2011). Traffic Engineering, 4th ed. Pearson Higher Education Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ, 288-292. Saito, M. and Wilson, A. B. (2011). Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Variable Advisory Speed System on Queue Mitigation in Work Zones. Final Report, No. UT-11.04. Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City, UT. Sall, J. (2012). JMP [computer software]. Cary, NC. 23 Transportation Research Board (TRB). (2000). Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. Transportation Research Board (TRB). (2010). Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. Weng, J. and Meng, Q. (2011). Decision Tree-Based Model for Work Zone Capacity Estimation. Paper No. 11-0865, Compendium of Papers DVD of the 90th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington D.C., 13-16. 24 APPE ENDIX A. EXAMPLE ES OF DAT TA FOR A T TYPICAL C CONGESTE ED DAY Figure A-1: A Speed disstribution for a typical conggested day. 80 70 Speed (mph) Speed (mph) 60 50 S Speed vs Densit ty S5 40 30 SSpeed vs Densitty S5 ‐ C Congested 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 Density (ve eh/mi/ln) Figure A-2: Speed vs denssity for a typiccal congested day at sensor 5. 25 80 70 Speed (mph) 60 50 Speed vs Flowrate S5 40 30 Speed vs Flowrate S5‐ Congested 20 10 0 0 500 1000 1500 Flowrate (veh/h/ln) Figure A-3: Speed vs. flow rate for a typical congested day at sensor 5. 1400 Flowrate (veh/h/ln) 1200 1000 800 Flowrate vs Density S5 600 Flowrate vs Density S5 ‐ Congested 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 Density (veh/mi/ln) Figure A-4: Flow rate vs. density for a typical congested day at sensor 5. 26