Course: BUS 215.01 – Introduction to Business Statistics Semester: Spring 2014 Instructor: M. Shane Higuera, Ed.D. Instructor Contact Information: michael.higuera@stonybrook.edu (631) 807-7904 Meeting Time: Fridays 9:00am – 12:00pm Location: 104 Harriman Hall Course Description: The application of current statistical methods to problems in the modern business environment. Topics include probability, random variables, sampling techniques, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and regression. Students analyze real data sets using standard statistical software, interpret the output, and write extensively about the results. Prerequisite: BUS Maj/Min, CME Major, or ISE Major Advisory Prerequisite: BUS 110, 111, 112 or 115, or MAT 122. Advisory Prerequisite for BUS or ISE Major: BUS 210 3 credits Course Overview: This course is an introduction to the concepts, methods, and applications of statistics in business. In your career, you will often face situations in which a clear understanding of statistical thinking and methodology will be essential. I have designed the course to: 1. Introduce the basic concepts and methods of statistics, 2. Demonstrate the applications of statistics in business decision making, 3. Enable you to perform statistical analyses using appropriate software, and 4. Help you to become a wise consumer of statistical analyses performed by others. If you are interested in finance, you know that investment strategy is all about return and risk. How will a portfolio fare in an uncertain world? Why do well-informed investors include funds that perform well in certain circumstances and others that perform poorly under the same circumstances? How can you measure the volatility of a stock relative to the market? Understanding uncertainty, expected value, variance, regression analysis, and correlation will provide you with a strong competitive advantage over those who do not. If you are interested in marketing, you know that successful marketers have a good understanding of the markets they target. How do they obtain such knowledge? How do marketers design surveys and other data collection devices that will give them a clear and unbiased look at their markets? What traps must they avoid so as not to make serious mistakes? How many people must they survey, and how must they select those people, to obtain the precision that they need without incurring undue cost? Understanding the principles of random sampling, types of nonrandom errors that can destroy a data set, and some simple ways to judge the size of the sampling error present in any data set will provide you with a strong competitive advantage over those who do not. If you are interested in operations, you know that keeping a business running smoothly requires that you keep in touch with current operations. How do you know when a production line is producing too many defective items and needs adjustment, repair, or recalibration? How can you tell which suppliers are the most dependable links in your supply chain? What inventory levels should you maintain to keep customers happy and costs low? Will a proposed new computer information system speed customer orders or will it simply be a large expense with little significant impact on the company’s bottom line? Understanding the principles of sampling distributions, estimation, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing, will provide you with a strong competitive advantage over those who do not. Whether you are interested in human resource management, information systems management, health care management, or any other business discipline you will need to understand how to deal with problems like these. Whether you work in energy, transportation, retailing, businessto-business, real estate, or any other industry you will find yourself making decisions in an uncertain environment in which your ability to analyze data (and understand analyses performed by others) will be a key to your success. That is why business students need business statistics. Required Texts & Other Course Materials: The textbook is Applied Statistics in Business and Economics, fourth edition, Doane and Seward, McGraw-Hill (2013). We will use Microsoft Excel and the MegaStat add-in for Excel. Stony Brook students can receive Microsoft Office Enterprise free. For details, visit http://it.cc.stonybrook.edu/student_guide/software. MegaStat is available for free download at http://glencoe.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/0010126585/student_view0/megastat.html Student Learning Outcomes College of Business Program Learning Outcomes: Critical Thinking – Graduates will be able to identify and evaluate the major elements of a business problem and summarize their findings. This outcome will be assessed through exams. Course Specific Learning Outcomes When you have successfully completed this course, you will: Assessment Activities Recognize the many types and sources of business-related data Exams Recognize the many acceptable and unacceptable ways to collect data Exams Summarize data through the use of summary statistics and statistical charts to support business decision making ALEKS, Exams Understand the major importance of variability in business decision making ALEKS, Exams Understand and be able to use basic probability concepts and probability distributions to solve problems related to business ALEKS, Exams Understand the basic concepts of sampling and the nature of sampling distributions ALEKS & Exams Compute and interpret confidence intervals for percentages and means and apply them in business decision making contexts ALEKS, Exams Compute and interpret one- and two-sample hypothesis tests for percentages and means and apply them in business decision making contexts ALEKS, Exams Construct and interpret univariate and multivariate regression models and apply them in business decision making contexts ALEKS, Exams Class Schedule Class Day 1 Fri 2 Fri 3 Fri 4 Fri 5 Fri 6 Fri 7 Fri 8 Fri 9 Fri 10 Fri 11 Fri 12 Fri 13 Fri 14 Fri 15 Fri 16 Wed Date Chapter Topics 01/31/14 1&2 Introduction to the Course; Data Collection 02/07/14 3 Describing Data Visually 02/14/14 4 Descriptive Statistics 02/21/14 5 Probability 02/28/14 Midterm Exam 1 03/07/14 6 Exam Review; Discrete Distributions 03/14/14 7 Continuous Distributions 03/21/14 Spring Break – No Class 03/28/14 8 Sampling Distributions and Estimation 04/04/14 8 Sampling Distributions and Estimation 04/11/14 Midterm Exam 2 04/18/14 9 Exam Review; One-Sample Hypothesis Tests 04/25/14 10 Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests 05/02/14 12 Bivariate Regression 05/09/14 13 Multiple Regression 05/14/14 Final Exam: 8:30pm – 11:00pm Course Requirements & Grading Information: Exams – The exams will be given on the dates shown in the Class Schedule. I will not give make-up exams without (a) advanced written notice that you will miss the exam, and (b) written documentation explaining the reason for your absence. I will judge the adequacy of the reason and the appropriateness of a make-up exam. I reserve the right to format the make-up exam as an oral exam. You must bring the following with you to all three exams: Notes, both sides of one 8½” x 11” sheet of paper in your own handwriting (no photocopies), Non-communicating calculator (not your cell phone), and Several pencils or pens There will be no partial credit awarded on any exam – midterms or final. For each midterm exam, you will receive your graded exam during the class session following the exam. You will have 2+ days (11:00pm on Sunday) to submit your corrections to each question on the midterm for which no credit was awarded. For each question, if the correction is perfect, 50% credit will be awarded. For example, if the original score for the midterm exam was a 70 and each of the corrections was timely and perfect, 15 additional points would be awarded, thereby increasing the midterm grade to an 85. The corrections must be submitted by e-mail in the format described in class. The exams will cover the following material. Midterm Exam 1: Chapters 1 – 5 Midterm Exam 2: Chapters 6 – 8 Final Exam: Chapters 9, 10, 12, and 13 ALEKS – ALEKS is an online system designed to assess your state of knowledge in business statistics and guide you through an individualized learning experience. To register online: 1. Go to http://www.aleks.com 2. On the upper left, click on NEW USER? SIGN UP NOW! 3. In the box for Using ALEKS with a Class? enter the course code: ARDEA-4TH4Q. Codes are case sensitive. Click Continue. 4. Under Confirm Enrollment Information, click Continue. If you need to purchase an ALEKS access code, perform steps 5 through 9. If you already have your access code, then skip to step 8. 5. Click on the link for Purchase an access code online. 6. Under the Business heading, select ALEKS for Business Statistics (one semester). 7. Select your state and school and continue to finalize your purchase. 8. Go back to your ALEKS registration page and enter your access code. 9. Checkmark the User Agreement. You have the option to change your password. Then, complete your registration. If the computer you are working on does not already have the ALEKS plug-in installed, then the plug-in will download automatically when you enter ALEKS. You will need to do this only once on that computer. However, if you do not have administrator rights for that computer, then click on “Downloads” in the upper right corner of the ALEKS home page, click on the “How do I use the ALEKS "streaming" plug-in?” link, and follow the directions. You will need to do that each time you log on to ALEKS using that computer since the streaming plug-in works only for the current session. Once registered, you will be guided through a brief, interactive tutorial to help you become familiar with the ALEKS software. After the tutorial, you will take an initial placement assessment. This creates a personalized, interactive learning path based on your current knowledge of the material. Try to answer each question. If you do not know the answer, simply click “I don’t know.” You will study these items later in the Learning Mode. The assessment might take 1 hour (or more, if you are already familiar with the topics) so please be patient. ALEKS requires an accurate assessment of your knowledge to help you learn efficiently. You must work alone on the ALEKS assessment and in the ALEKS Learning Mode. Once your placement assessment is complete, the “My Pie” report will illustrate how much of each topic area you know and what you are ready to learn. Select topics to work on directly from the pie chart. ALEKS gives you immediate feedback on your answers. If you are unable to solve a problem, click on “Explain.” Once you see the solution, you can rework a similar problem that contains different variables. Technical Support: support@aleks.com or call 1-714-245-7191 ext. 201. You should work on ALEKS topics before we discuss them in class. This will enhance your learning of those topics and will help you to prepare for exams. The percentage of learning topics that you master before each exam will be a portion of your final grade. I will measure these percentages immediately prior to each exam, as shown in Table 4. Specifically: If you complete X1 topics before Midterm Exam 1, then your first ALEKS grade will be (X1/31)*10. If you complete X2 topics before Midterm Exam 2 (including any you completed before Midterm Exam 1), then your second ALEKS grade will be (X2/58)*6. Finally, if you complete X3 topics before the Final Exam (including any you completed before Midterm Exam 1 or Midterm Exam 2), then your final ALEKS grade will be (X3/82)*6. Please note that the first two ALEKS grades may be more than 100%. Note also that the Mathematical Readiness topics in ALEKS are required but do not count toward any of your ALEKS grades. ALEX Topics Corresponding to Each Exam Exam Slices Of “My Pie” Midterm Exam 1 Midterm Exam 2 Descriptive; Probability Distributions; Confidence Intervals topics in Inference Remainder of Inference; Regression Final Exam Topics Cumulative 31 27 31 58 24 82 Assignments – There will be six homework assignments posted in ALEKS. You must work alone on these assignments. Each assignment will be available for only a limited time and you must complete it before it is due to earn credit for it. The table below shows the chapter coverage and the due dates for the homework assignments. Once the due date has passed, you will have no opportunity to make up the assignment and your grade for that assignment will be zero. The homework assignments may be attempted an unlimited number of times – only the highest score will be reported and used to calculate the homework grade. Homework Assignment 1 2 3 4 5 6 Title Chapter Due Before 11 Pm On Data Collection and Description Probability Probability Distributions Confidence Intervals Hypothesis Testing Regression 1, 2, 3, 4 5 6, 7 8 9, 10 12, 13 Sunday, 02/16/2014 Sunday, 02/23/2014 Sunday, 03/16/2014 Sunday, 04/06/2014 Sunday, 04/27/2014 Sunday, 05/11/2014 Expectations – Your attendance at and your participation in every class are important! You cannot succeed in this course if you miss class. When we meet, we will focus on conceptual explanations and applications, demonstrations, and discussions designed to enhance your learning of the course material. When you come to class, I expect you to turn off your cell phone and to refrain from engaging in distracting activities such as sleeping, texting, working on your laptop computer, or talking to the person next to you. I also expect your complete engagement and active participation in each class session. Grading System – I do not curve grades in this course, meaning that potentially everyone in the class can earn an A. I use plus and minus moderators in grading. All grades are based on the following matrix. Course Score Final Letter Grade A AB+ B BC+ C D F Grading Allocation for the Course – Item Points For Final Grade Midterm Exam 1 Grade 20 Midterm Exam 2 Grade 20 Final Exam Grade 20 ALEKS 1 Grade 10 ALEKS 2 Grade 6 Final ALEKS Grade 6 ALEKS Homework 18 Total Potential Score 100 Office Hours and Teaching Assistants – My office hours are Mondays and Wednesdays 1:00pm – 2:15pm, and by appointment. You may make an appointment by e-mail or phone. Information about the teaching assistants (TAs) is available in the Staff Information section of Blackboard. Each TA holds 6 office hours per week in the lobby of Harriman Hall. Blackboard – You can access class information on-line at http://blackboard.sunysb.edu. If you have used Stony Brook's Blackboard system previously, your login information (Username and Password) has not changed. If you have never used Stony Brook's Blackboard system, your initial password is your SOLAR ID# and your username is the same as your Stony Brook (sparky) username, which is generally your first initial and the first seven letters of your last name. If you are having trouble logging into Blackboard, you will need to log into SOLAR to verify your Net ID username & set your Net ID Security Question and Password. For more information, visit: http://clientsupport.stonybrook.edu/ If you are a student and continue to have a problem logging into Blackboard, you will need to bring photo ID to either the Melville Library SINC Site Room S1460 or the Union SINC Site Room 080 and speak to a Blackboard Administrator from Saturday - Friday from 9 am - 5 pm. Academic Integrity: Each student must pursue his or her academic goals honestly and be personally accountable for all submitted work. Representing another person's work as your own is always wrong. Faculty is required to report any suspected instances of academic dishonesty to the Academic Judiciary. For more comprehensive information on academic integrity, including categories of academic dishonesty please refer to the academic judiciary website at http://www.stonybrook.edu/uaa/academicjudiciary/ Academic Dishonesty: The College of Business regards any act of academic dishonesty as a major violation punishable by severe penalties, including dismissal from the University. University policy requires that instructors and GAs and TAs report all suspected cases of academic dishonesty to the appropriate Academic Judiciary Committee, which is empowered to take strong action against violators. Under no circumstances, will the College of Business permit cheating of any kind. Many activities constitute academic dishonesty. The following list is not inclusive, only suggestive: Cheating on exams or assignments by the use of books, electronic devices, notes, or other aids when these are not permitted, or by copying from another student. Collusion: two or more students helping one another on an exam or assignment when it is not permitted. Ringers: taking an exam for someone else, or permitting someone else to take one's exam. Submitting the same paper in more than one course without permission of the instructors. Plagiarizing: copying someone else's writing or paraphrasing it too closely, even if it constitutes only some of your written assignment. Submitting the same paper in more than one course without approval of the instructors. Falsifying documents or records related to credit, grades, status (e.g., adds and drops, P/NC grading), or other academic matters. Altering an exam or paper after it has been graded in order to request a grade change. Stealing, concealing, destroying, or inappropriately modifying classroom or other instructional material, such as posted exams, library materials, laboratory supplies, or computer programs. Preventing relevant material from being subjected to academic evaluation. Americans with Disabilities Act: If you have a physical, psychological, medical, or learning disability that may impact your course work, please contact Disability Support Services at (631) 632-6748. They will determine with you what accommodations are necessary and appropriate. All information and documentation is confidential. Students who require assistance during emergency evacuation are encouraged to discuss their needs with their professors and Disability Support Services. For procedures and information go to the following website: http://www.sunysb.edu/ehs/fire/disabilities.shtml Critical Incident Management: Stony Brook University expects students to respect the rights, privileges, and property of other people. Faculty are required to report to the Office of University Community Standards any disruptive behavior that interrupts their ability to teach, compromises the safety of the learning environment, or inhibits students' ability to learn. Faculty in the HSC Schools and the School of Medicine are required to follow their school-specific procedures. Further information about most academic matters can be found in the Undergraduate Bulletin, the Undergraduate Class Schedule, and the Faculty-Employee Handbook.