World Meteorological Organization EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1) EXECUTIVE COUNCIL Submitted by: Date: SIXTY-SECOND SESSION Original Language: Geneva, 8 to 18 June 2010 Agenda Item: Secretary-General & Chairman, EC Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning 31.V.2010 English 7.2 Expected Result: 11 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE AND OVERSIGHT OF THE ORGANIZATION Strategic Thrust: Efficient Management and Good Governance STRATEGIC PLAN AND OPERATING PLAN SUMMARY ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED: 1. 2. The draft WMO Strategic Plan and Operating Plan 2012-2015 Preliminary discussion on the preparation of the next WMO Strategic and Operating Plans 2016-2019 ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL IMPLICATION: None DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED: (a) (b) (c) To review the draft WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015; To review the draft WMO Operating Plan; To agree on the development of the next WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019. REFERENCES: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Fifty-eighth Session of the Executive Council (WMO-No. 1007), general summary, paragraph 6.13 Resolution 28 (Cg-XV) – Preparation of the WMO Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Sixty-first session of the Executive Council (WMO-No. 1042), general summary, paragraphs 7.2.6 – 7.2.11 2010 Meeting of the Presidents of Technical Commissions (Geneva, 28-30 January 2010) Recommendations of the EC Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning (Geneva, 2931 March 2010) - http://www.wmo.int/pages/meetings/documents/set_of_recommendations.doc CONTENT OF DOCUMENT: Appendices for inclusion in the final report: A. B. Draft text for inclusion in the general summary of EC-LXII Draft WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 Appendix for information: EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1): Progress/Activity Report EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE GENERAL SUMMARY OF EC-LXII 7.2 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE AND OVERSIGHT OF THE ORGANIZATION (agenda item 7.2) ……….. WMO Strategic Plan (SP) 2012-2015 7.2.x.1 The Executive Council (EC) recalled its decisions on the preparation of the WMO Strategic Plan (SP) and WMO Operating Plan 2012-2015 (OP), in particular the recommendations of EC-LXI (paragraphs 7.2.6-7.2.11) and Resolution 28 of the Fifteenth World Meteorological Congress (Cg-XV). It noted with appreciation the report and recommendations of its Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning on these issues and took these into account in its deliberations. 7.2.x.2 The Council noted that strategic planning for the period 2012-2015 represented the second phase of results-based management (RBM) Strategic Planning Framework for WMO and builds upon the previous long-term planning process that had enabled the World Meteorological Congress to respond to the changing needs of its Members and society in general. 7.2.x.3 The Council noted with appreciation the involvement of technical commissions (TCs), regional associations (RAs), WMO Bureau, WMO joint programmes and the Secretariat in the development of the WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 [see Appendix B], which ensured that the document reflected the collective view of all WMO constituent bodies. 7.2.x.4 The Council reaffirmed the importance of the SP as a foundation for the WMO resultsbased management (RBM) framework and its influence on the planning of activities and resource allocation for the Secretariat in the strategic planning period. It noted that the preparation of the WMO Operating Plan and results-based budget for the period 2012-2015 was based on the Strategic Plan. 7.2.x.5 The Council considered decided ……………………… the draft WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 and WMO Strategic Executive Summary 7.2.x.6 Concerning the WMO Strategic Executive Summary, the Council recalled its decision (EC-LXI, paragraph 7.2.11) to have a document written in a language that would appeal to those outside WMO, particularly those who make decisions related to the funding of NMHSs and the Secretariat, and that it should be prepared as an additional document. 7.2.x.7 The Council noted that the draft Strategic Plan was short, succinct and concise, as per recommendations of its Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning (WG/SOP) and the presidents of technical commissions (PTCs) and could potentially be used as the document targeted at decision-makers following Congress approval. The Council decided that……..................... WMO Operating Plan 7.2.x.8 The Council noted that the WMO-wide Operating Plan (2012-2015) provided details on activities and deliverables, which guided resource allocation and estimates. The Council EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A, p. 2 appreciated the contributions of the TCs and RAs to the development of WMO Operating Plan 2012-2015 [see EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), ADD. 1]. 7.2.x.9 The Council considered the draft WMO Operating Plan 2012-2015 and noted that it was a highly detailed document that could be used for management decision-making and for monitoring and evaluation of the Strategic Plan. The Council requested that the document be further refined with inputs from TCs, RAs and EC panels and working groups, and encouraged those that had not yet provided their input to do so. It further decided that given the length of the document and the costs for translation, a sample Operating Plan be submitted to Congress for noting and a full document be available on-line to all management groups and Executive Council members. The next WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019 7.2.x.10 The Council considered the recommendation of the PTCs to retain the core elements of the current Strategic Plan, viz. GSN, the five Strategic Thrusts and eight Expected Results. It requested its WG/SOP to consider this matter further and to propose to Congress a process for developing the next Strategic Plan taking into account key scenarios in climate change projections, major developments including major UN conferences, and decisions by the United Nations General Assembly, the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and key scenarios in climate change projections, the ICSU visioning exercise, outcomes of major conferences including the WCRPOpen Science Conference on Climate Research in Service to Society, and implementation of GFCS, among others. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B WMO STRATEGIC Table of PLAN 2012-2015 Contents Foreword 2 Introduction 3 - Societal benefit of weather, climate and water services 3 - Purpose and context of the WMO Strategic Plan 5 Strategic Thrusts linking to Expected Results, Key Outcomes and Key Performance Indicators • Improving service quality and service delivery • Advancing scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology 10 • Strengthening capacity building 12 • Building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation 13 • Strengthening good governance 14 9 WMO Operating Plan 14 WMO Results-based Budget 15 Monitoring and Evaluation 15 Conclusion 15 References 16 EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 2 Foreword The vision of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is to provide world leadership in expertise and international cooperation in weather, climate, hydrology and water resources, and related environmental issues, thereby contributing to the safety and well-being of people throughout the world and to the societal and economic benefit of all nations. The strategic direction of WMO for the period 2012-2015 and beyond is based on five Strategic Thrusts that address the following Global Societal Needs: (a) (b) (c) Improved protection of life and property (related to impacts of hazardous weather, climate, water and other environmental events and increased safety of transport on land, at sea and in the air); Poverty alleviation, sustained livelihoods and economic growth (in connection with the Millennium Development Goals) including improved health and social well-being of citizens (related to weather, climate, water and environmental events and influences); and Sustainable use of natural resources and improved environmental quality. The World Meteorological Congress recognizes that societies all over the world are affected by extreme weather, climate and water events, and the increase in the intensity and frequency of some of these extreme events due to climate variability and change is a big challenge especially to developing and least developed countries. The choice of the three broad societal needs and priority areas of focus take into consideration the interest of all nations to protect the lives, livelihoods and property of their citizens, to improve their well-being through sustainable use of natural resources and to protect environment. The Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 builds upon a long-term planning process that has enabled the World Meteorological Congress to respond to the changing needs of its Members and society in general. It recognizes the need to improve service quality and service delivery by advancing scientific research and application, strengthening capacity-building, building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation, and strengthening good governance. It is forward looking in the medium- and long-term, anticipating new needs as well as expected technological advances. Based on the synthesis of all relevant factors and financial realities, the Plan outlines the achievable expected results and outcomes focusing on the period 2012-2015 and beyond. The five Strategic Thrusts are amplified by eight Expected Results together with a set of key outcomes and performance indicators. Within the five Strategic Thrusts and eight Expected Results are five priority areas of focus that have significant contributions to the achievement of the Expected Results. The eight Expected Results and a set of key outcomes together with the associated performance indicators form the basis for the development of WMO Operating Plan, including the allocation of resources through Results-based Budget (RBB), and the provision of key elements for Monitoring and Evaluation of the implementation of the Strategic Plan. This Strategic Plan provides a clear way forward for the Organization to address the critical global societal needs within its mission. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 3 INTRODUCTION Societal benefits of weather, climate and water services The social and economic value of weather and climate information is derived from their influence on decisions made by users in the sectors sensitive to weather and climate conditions, and tends to increase with the quality, accuracy, timeliness, locational specificity and the user friendliness of the information (4). The estimated economic benefits of climate forecasts related to El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the agricultural sector alone range from US $450 to $550 million/year (minimum) for world agriculture, of which $200 - $300 million/year is for US agriculture (1). Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters for the period 1980 to 2007 reveal that over 90 per cent of the disasters related to natural hazards, 71 per cent of casualties and 78 per cent of economic losses, are caused by weather-, climate- or waterrelated hazards such as tropical cyclones and storm surges, droughts, floods or health epidemics and insect infestations. Significant reduction in losses of life and an increase in economic losses during the period 1956-2005 are evident from Figure 1. Figure 1a Figure 1b Figure 1: Decadal trends in natural hazard impacts over the five last decades showing decreasing loss of life (left panel) and increasing economic losses (right panel) associated with hydrometeorological hazards (3). The warnings formulated from skilful seasonal forecasts can contribute significantly to the reduction in losses of life and property associated with climate related natural disasters, enhanced productivity in sectors dependent on climate (5) and efficient management of the institutions dependent on weather and climate (2). Significant progress in improving the quality, timeliness and utility of weather, climate, water and related environmental services (e.g. improvements in quality of short-term forecasts in the period 1980 to 2006) has resulted from the cooperation of all nations in sharing observations of the Earth System from the local to the global scale, coupled with advances in data assimilation techniques and numerical models (Figure 2). EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 4 1961 1990 1978 2009 Figure 2: Improvements in anomaly correlation of 500hPa height forecasts for the northern and southern hemispheres linked to the increase in satellite observations and skills of numerical models. Despite the progress in improving services, more societies are increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards and national economies are becoming more sensitive to climate variability and change as evidenced by the greater frequency and intensity of climate extreme events. The losses of life, people affected and economic losses (as a percent of GDP) associated with natural hazards are more severe for the developing countries than for developed countries). This provides a cogent argument for improving weather, climate, water and related environmental services as well as communications and emergency response activities, particularly in developing and least developed countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and other vulnerable countries. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 5 WMO is focusing its strategic direction for the period 2012-2015 on five Strategic Thrusts that address Global Societal Needs. Its Strategic Plan under-scores the importance of improving service quality and service delivery by advancing scientific research and application; strengthening capacity-building; building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation; and strengthening good governance. The achievements of WMO over decades demonstrate its ability to address the challenges of weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions on the efforts of nations to improve the well-being of society and achieve sustainable development. Global Societal Needs • Improved protection of life and property (related to impacts of hazardous weather, climate, water and other environmental events and increased safety of transport on land, at sea and in the air); • Poverty alleviation, sustained livelihoods and economic growth (in connection with the Millennium Development Goals) including improved health and social well-being of citizens (related to weather, climate, water and environmental events and influence); and • Sustainable use of natural resources and improved environmental quality. Purpose and Context of WMO Strategic Plan The Mission of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as presented in the Convention establishing the Organization (6) is: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) To facilitate worldwide cooperation in the establishment of networks of stations for the making of meteorological observations as well as hydrological and other geophysical observations related to meteorology, and to promote the establishment and maintenance of centres charged with the provision of meteorological and related services; To promote the establishment and maintenance of systems for the rapid exchange of meteorological and related information; To promote standardization of meteorological and related observations and to ensure the uniform publication of observations and statistics; To further the application of meteorology to aviation, shipping, water problems, agriculture and other human activities; To promote activities in operational hydrology and to further close cooperation between meteorological and hydrological services; and To encourage research and training in meteorology and, as appropriate, in related fields. and to assist in coordinating international aspects such as research and training. Within its mission and the decision of its 189 Members to address a set of Global Societal Needs, WMO is committed to achieving its vision of providing world leadership in expertise and international cooperation in weather, climate, hydrology and water resources, and related environmental issues, and thereby to contribute to the safety and well-being of people throughout the world and to the economic benefit of all nations. Utilizing the capabilities of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO will focus its programmes and activities on providing the best possible services to support safety and well-being of its Members and their efforts to address global societal needs and environmental issues. The WMO occupies a unique “niche” within the international system, in developing an unmatched system of global cooperation in weather, climate, hydrology and related environmental observations, data and services. It has been most effective in facilitating the development of NMHSs in almost all countries of the world. The achievements of WMO include: EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 6 (a) Free and Unrestricted Exchange of Meteorological and Related Data and Products; essential for all real time weather, climate, water and related environmental services together with the assessment of the evolution of the climate system; (b) International Standards for Meteorological and Related Observations ensuring high quality and intercomparability of data – a vital feature for detecting climate change and developing global weather and climate models and related services; (c) Capacity Building - in NMHSs throughout the world; (d) Promoting Science and Technology – transforming leading edge research into useful products and services; (e) International Leadership - recognized leader in the UN System with respect to the monitoring and prediction of weather, climate, water, and related environmental conditions. WMO will continue to rely on its Members, their NMHSs and national scientific institutions; other partners, e.g., ICSU, UNESCO and UNEP, other professionals from universities and the private sector; and national financial support to provide the scientific, programmatic and infrastructural support necessary to implement a cost-effective international cooperation system. With global societal needs escalating, future weather, climate, water and related environmental products and services will require significant targeted improvements to: (a) Provide user targeted timely, accurate and cost-effective products and services; (b) Provide and promote the use of products and services in addressing the challenges of adaptation to climate variability and change; (c) Enhance the effectiveness of their services and lower costs by promoting cooperation and partnerships nationally and internationally; (d) Enhance the visibility of its Members and their activities by more fully participating in international programmes and conventions; and (e) Assist countries in translating commitments, agreed within the framework of global conferences, summits and international conventions, into effective and practical measures. The Structure of the WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 Starting with the three Global Societal Needs (GSNs), the WMO Strategic Plan defines five Organization-wide strategic thrusts (STs) and eight Expected Results (ERs) to achieve its vision (Table 1). EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 7 Table 1: Schematic representation of the structure of WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 The eight ERs are further delineated by Key Outcomes (KOs) and their associated key performance indicators to measure the success in achieving the results. Within the five Strategic Thrusts and eight Expected Results are the following five priority areas that have significant contribution to the achievement of the expected results: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Global Framework for Climate Services; Aviation meteorological services; Capacity Building for the developing and least developed countries; Implementation of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS); and Disaster Risk Reduction. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 8 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is a major initiative for WMO. The Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegations at the World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva, Switzerland, 2009) decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) “to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services.” The Framework will benefit from and contribute to the achievement of the outcomes of most of the eight Expected Results. Agriculture Health Transport Tourism Sectoral Users Energy Water Ecosystem Fisharies Climate User Interface Programme Climate Services Information System Observations Observations Climate research, modeling and prediction Capacity Building Figure 3: Components of the Global Framework for Climate Services In addition to the pillars of observations, and climate research, modelling and predictions, Climate Services Information System and Climate User Interface Programme are the two new components of the Framework (Figure 3). The progress made and systems developed over the years under the World Climate Programme through Members and their NMHSs will form the foundation for developing the GFCS. A detailed description of the other priority areas is provided under the related Expected Rresults. This Strategic Plan, while focused on the financial period 2012–2015, takes into consideration longer term social, economic and technological issues facing the Organization. It also serves as the foundation for the WMO Operating Plan, WMO Results-based Budget (RBB), and the performance monitoring and evaluation activities, which together define the detailed deliverables, performance targets and the allocation of resources to achieve the expected results. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 9 Strategic Thrust 1: Improving Service Quality and Service Delivery Despite improvements in understanding and the prediction of the global earth system, societies, especially in developing and least developed countries, are still vulnerable to severe weather and extreme climate conditions. Hence, there is much more for WMO to do to assist countries worldwide to benefit from improvements in the quality of weather, climate, water and related environmental services together with their delivery. This requires collaborative efforts involving the providers and users of information to ensure that the needs of the users are integrated in the development of the products and to enhance feedback between the providers and users of information for further improvement. Strategic Thrust 1 has two Expected Results (ER 1 and ER 2) that focus on the provision of weather, climate and water related services and includes disaster risk reduction as a priority area. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of these ERs include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP), Application of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR), and WMO Space Programme (WMOSP). ER1 addresses the rapidly changing paradigm for providing meteorological (weather and climate), hydrological and environmental services that requires service providers to: (a) Understand the use of the information in order to tailor the information to the user needs, e.g., through an effective rolling reviews of client needs for its products and services; (b) Integrate weather, climate, water and environmental information and products into decisionmaking. Aviation Meteorological Services is a priority area of focus under this ER 1. The economic and social benefits that can be derived from air transport make it one of the world’s most important industries. Air transport, for example, is a critical factor in world trade and plays a major role in the development of a globalized economy. As an economic catalyst for growth, air transport has a tremendous impact on the performance of regional economies, both through its own activities and as an enabler of other industries in catalytic or spin-off benefits. The advances in air transport have created the need to improve the delivery of services to the sector to contribute to the safety, regularity and efficiency of international air navigation. Such improvements require more training of staff and upgrading of infrastructure. The implementation of quality management system (QMS) comprising of procedures, processes and resources necessary to facilitate quality management of the meteorological information supplied to the users is of paramount importance, as is the demonstration of competencies for aeronautical meteorological personnel especially in developing and least developed countries. The ER 2 addresses the need for NMHSs to be an integral component of multi-hazard national emergency management system and to work with relevant sectors to develop products and information to support their specific needs for decision-making in responding to extreme climate, water and related environmental events. Disaster risk reduction is a priority area due to the negative impacts of natural disasters on the achievement of the GSNs. Weather, climate and water related disasters continue to result in very high human and economic costs, and displacement of large populations in many countries, particularly in developing and least developed countries. By developing a set of contingency measures based on weather, climate, water and related early warning systems, including environmental information and services, nations can save more lives and reduce economic losses associated with natural disasters. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 10 Strategic Thrust 2: Advancing scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology Past scientific and technical advances have made significant contributions to improving weather, climate, water and related environmental information and services. Further scientific and technical advances are needed to increase the scope, accuracy and lead time of weather, climate, water and related environmental information and services, and to enhance the availability of comprehensive and robust information networks for improving the quality of services to address the many remaining challenges that have been exacerbated by population growth, greater use of marginal land areas, and diversified human activities. Strategic Thrust 2 has three Expected Results (ER 3, ER 4 and ER 5) (Table 1) together with their key outcomes and performance indicators, and 3 priority areas for implementation in 20122015. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of these ERs include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP) including the co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), Application of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP), Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP), and WMO Space Programme (WMOSP). ER 3 addresses WMO activities to make its data, products and services more useful to society and relevant in day-to-day decision-making. Greater emphasis on sectoral applications, such as those in agriculture, water management and disaster risk reduction, will be essential in future products and services from the NMHSs. The Global Framework for Climate Services (Figure 3) is a priority area under ER 3 especially as it relates to the two new pillars of the Framework namely the Climate Services Information System (CSIS) and the Climate User Interface Programme. An important feature of the Framework (Figure 3), is the close interaction between users and providers of climate information and products, (i.e., Climate User Interface Programme), with the value of the service being judged on its ability to improve decision-making. The CSIS will develop better climate information and prediction products from operational NMHS systems and disseminate them more effectively to meet user needs. The progress made and systems developed over the years under the World Climate Programme through Members and their NMHSs will form the foundation for developing the CSIS. The priority in generating hydrologic information and products will be on enhanced, quality, efficiency and effectiveness. Among the initiatives will be to prepare guidance materials to be utilized to increase the capacities of the NMHSs, particularly in developing and least developed countries, to improve hydrological forecasting, water resources assessment and management, and adaptation to climate variability and change. WMO also will seek to mobilize resources for the improvement of hydrological networks in developing and least developed countries. ER 4 addresses improvements in three systems - WIGOS, WIS and a strengthened co-sponsored Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)1, which facilitates improvements in the quality of climate data of the total climate system to meet the needs of international, regional and national users of climate data and the derived products. These activities will support the observational requirements for the GFCS, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and WMO Members in their national climate services in meeting their obligations in various international conventions such as UNFCCC, the UNCCD and the Ozone Convention. The WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS) are priority areas under ER 4. 1 The GCOS has the responsibility for setting the requirements of climate observations and related data and products and working with WMO components (NMHSs), technical commissions, regional associations and its observing system partners (e.g., GOOS, GTOS, CEOS, GEOSS of the GEO) to improve climate observations for all observing system domains and from both ground-based and space-based systems. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 11 Weather, climate, water and related observations, gathered by NMHSs and partners, form the foundations for the delivery of all services provided by NMHSs and for much of the research to improve our understanding of the Earth system together with its prediction and assessment. The Fifteenth WMO Congress (Cg-XV, May 2007), decided to establish the WMO Integrated Global Observing Systems (WIGOS), a coordinated, comprehensive and sustainable system, to address observational requirements of all WMO Programmes and partners, including those of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) of the Group on Earth Observations(GEO), in the most cost effective way. The WIGOS will enhance observing capabilities, data and product quality, and interoperability among WMO Global Observing Systems (GOS, GAW and WHYCOS) and other WMO co-sponsored observing systems (Figure 4). 2 The goal is to provide improved information and products to support decision-making at all levels. Figure 4: The WMO Global Observing System that forms the foundation for establishing the WMO Integrated Global Observing Systems (WIGOS) Cg-XV also decided to develop and implement WIS as a pillar of WMO strategy to efficiently manage and move weather, climate, water and related environmental information and products into the 21st century. The WIS provides an integrated approach suitable for all WMO Programmes to meet the requirements for routine collection and automated dissemination of observed data and products, as well as data discovery, access and retrieval services for all weather, climate, water and related data produced by centres and Members in the framework of any WMO Programme. 2 The WMO co-sponsored systems include the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 12 The ER 5 addresses improvements in the prediction of weather and climate, and observations and the assessments of atmospheric chemistry. Future research will follow a balanced and seamless approach to weather, climate and water services, including developing forecasts of a broader range of environmental parameters, such as air quality, sand and dust storms, and changes in vegetation, to meet the needs of users and the urgent demands to reduce the vulnerability of communities. Figure 5 shows the challenges of developing ‘seamless’ products and services, and the available climate information and gaps. The future approach to weather, climate and water research, predictions and services will: (a) (b) (c) Take a unified approach over multiple time and spatial scales, including a requirement for the downscaling of climate information; Invest in increasingly high-performance computing to accommodate the increasing complexity and detail of models; and Develop closer linkages between research, operations and users, e.g., through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) to enable Members to rapidly operationalize research outputs for service delivery. Decades Outlook Threats Assessments Forecasts Anthropogenic Forcing Years Forecast Lead Time Predictio n Guidance Forecast Uncertainty Centuries Climate Change. Change. Scenarios Climate Variability Seasons Months Boundary Conditions 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Environment State/Local Planning Commerce Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Water Resource Planning Agriculture Hydropower Fire Weather Transportation Space Applications Water Management Protection of Life & Property Applications Figure 5: Schematic diagram showing the challenges of developing ‘seamless’ products and Services, and the available climate information and gaps (Source: NOAA). Strategic Thrust 3: Strengthening Capacity-Building The human resource and infrastructure capacity of an NMHS has a significant influence on the quality of services and their delivery including the ability of the users to interpret and integrate the services into decision-making. Despite continued improvements in science and technology, many NMHSs in developing and least developed countries often cannot take advantage of these improvements due to inadequate infrastructure and insufficient skilled personnel. Institutional capacity building is needed to improve ability to conduct targeted research; for management, planning and policy development; and to develop communication skills to improve their interactions with clients, the media, and their governments. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 13 Strategic Thrust 3 has one Expected Result (ER 6), which addresses the need to improve infrastructure and systems operated by NMHSs and human resources with special emphasis on the future developments of multi-hazard warning and response systems and climate services to support the Global Framework for Climate Services. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of this ER include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP), Regional Programme (RP) including the Least Developing Countries Programme (LDCP), Technical Cooperation Programme (TCOP), Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) and WMO Space Programme (WMOSP). Capacity Building for the developing and least developed countries is a priority area in ER 6 since it is critical for improving the NMHSs’ capabilities and capacities to improve the quality and delivery of services together with the involvement with users in other governmental organizations, civil society, private sector and intergovernmental groupings. The main objectives of this priority area are to: (a) Give particular attention to the education and training needs of NMHSs in developing countries, Least Developed Countries and Small Islands Developing States to address specific issues such as forecaster qualifications for aviation meteorology, the GFCS and disaster risk reduction; (b) Increase awareness on the socio-economic benefits of the products and services provided by the NMHSs and regional centres, including their contribution to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals; (c) Assist NMHSs managers with tools for building effective communication with governments, policy- and decision-makers, and development partners; (d) Continuously assess and address NMHS training needs, including professional training and development, technical training, project development and management training; (e) Expand the number of strategic partnerships with internal and external stakeholders; (f) Support the above initiatives through enhanced resource mobilization. Success in these efforts, especially by developing and least developed countries, will require cooperative efforts with Members, and international and regional partners, to mobilize resources from multiple extrabudgetary sources. Strategic Thrust 4: Building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation The complexity of the Earth system and the interconnections between weather, water, climate and related environmental processes and hazards are increasingly challenging the scientific and financial capacity of WMO to improve the quality and accuracy of information and products. No single government or agency has the necessary resources to address all the challenges on its own. Consequently, the Organization’s success depends on its ability to partner effectively with internal stakeholders and external organizations in addressing the GSNs. The partnership strategic thrust is important to: (a) Heighten understanding and use of WMO’s environmental information and service capabilities by the United Nations system, WMO Members, and international and national organizations, e.g., in implementing the GFCS and other initiatives; (b) Enhance partnerships with other major international scientific organizations due to the increasing complexity and multi-disciplinary of the basic science issues required to provide improved products and services; (c) Enhance WMO’s ability to increase the scope of its information and products and to develop and sustain service improvements by leveraging the capabilities of partners; (d) Broaden partnerships between developed, developing and least developed countries involving relevant national agencies, e.g., with emergency management agencies; and EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 14 (e) Maintain a proactive role in ensuring a coherent, science-based approach within the United Nations System and among other stakeholders to implement environmental conventions, including outcomes of World Summits and follow-up to all relevant United Nations Conventions. Strategic Thrust 4 (Table 1) has one Expected Result (ER 7), which addresses the need to enhance cooperation and partnerships among national and international institutions to achieve the shared objectives. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of this ER include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP) including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP), Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP) and Technical Cooperation Programme (TCOP). S t r a t e g i c T h r u s t 5 : Strengthening good governance Good governance promotes open and transparent processes, and efficient and effective use of resources and increases accountability for resource expenditure linked to achievement of expected results. This strategic thrust aims to improve management of WMO as a whole by: (a) Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of its governing and constituent bodies; (b) Promoting open and transparent business processes, efficient and effective use of resources and equitable treatment of all parties; (c) Enhancing the efficiency of the WMO Secretariat; (d) Ensuring the integrity of WMO management systems, (e) Improving the connection between its strategic initiatives and programmes and budget, through results-based management systems and practices; (f) Conducting a comprehensive review of its structure, programmes and priorities and implementing the findings thereof. Strategic Thrust 5 has one Expected Result (ER 8), which addresses the need to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Organization. The management priority is focused on improving the efficiency, effectiveness and transparency of the programmatic and financial management of the Organization. This includes developing a visionary Strategic Plan, a clear and effective WMO Operating Plan and WMO Results-based Budget for the financial period 2012–2015 together with a monitoring and evaluation system. It will also enhance the effectiveness and efficiency in service delivery. WMO OPERATING PLAN The WMO Operating Plan translates the Strategic Thrusts, Expected Results and Key Outcomes described in the Strategic Plan into specific programme activities and projects, which are needed to address the global societal needs and achieve the expected results. The WMO Operating Plan is comprehensive in that it distinguishes the contribution of WMO Members, technical commissions, regional associations and the Secretariat. Starting with the Key Outcomes, it specifies the deliverables; programme activities and performance metrics to assess progress in achievement of the Expected Results. It encompasses activities of the eight WMO Technical Commissions {Commission for Basic Systems (CBS), Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO), Commission for Hydrology (CHy), Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM), Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM), Commission for Climatology (CCl), and Joint WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)}, the six regional associations {RA I (Africa), RA II (Asia), RA III (South America), RA IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean), RA V (South-West Pacific) and RA VI (Europe)} and the EC working groups, panels and committees. It forms the basis for resource allocation and monitoring and evaluation. EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 15 WMO RESULTS-BASED BUDGET WMO Results-based Budget (RBB) identifies specific programme activities, initiatives, and the resources that the Secretariat, working with regional associations, technical commissions and the EC working groups, panels and committees, is required to implement to achieve the Key Outcomes and Expected Results. The end result is a results-based budget containing the following items: (a) A logical framework for informed budgetary decision-making, which provides the Expected Results, deliverables, programme activities and performance indicators, together with the required resources; (b) Resource justification by results, which is designed to optimize the use of resources and improve the Secretariat’s responsiveness to meet Members’ needs; (c) Incorporation into the budgetary decision-making process of performance measures gauging progress towards key performance targets against allocated resources. The RBB is approved by the Congress. MONITORING AND EVALUATION The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are tools to measure the performance of the Organization in the implementation of its Strategic Plan. Monitoring and evaluation also contribute to identifying good practices and lessons learned with respect to implementation as well as policy, strategy and programmatic design that will inform the next phase of strategic planning. They provide information for ensuring the continuing effectiveness and relevance of the WMO Programmes. The evaluation results are important inputs to the strategic planning process and are used to adjust strategic direction and priorities, if required. Whereas monitoring is an ongoing function, annual evaluations are conducted and results are reported to the constituent bodies of WMO, in particular the Executive Council. The M&E procedures and practices are defined in the WMO Monitoring and Evaluation System. Monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the WMO strategic Plan through the WMO Operating Plan and RBB is the joint responsibility of WMO constituent bodies, Members and the Secretariat. CONCLUSION WMO is focusing its strategic direction for the period 2012-2015 on five Strategic Thrusts that address Global Societal Needs and facilitates the achievement of eight Expected Results. Its Strategic Plan under-scores the importance of improving service quality and service delivery by advancing scientific research and application, strengthening capacity-building, building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation, and strengthening good governance. Within the Strategic Thrusts and eight Expected Results are five priority areas of focus that have significant contribution to the achievement of Expected Results. Advancing these priorities offers great potential for improving weather, climate, water and related environmental products and services offered by the NMHSs, for enhancing WMO and its Members contribution to global initiatives, and for strengthening the capacities and involvement of all Members within their countries and in regional and global activities, especially those in developing and least developed countries. This Strategic Plan provides a clear way forward for the Organization to address the critical global societal needs agreed upon by Members. More information about WMO and its strategic planning process is available on its Website: www.wmo.int EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 16 References 1 Adams, Richard M., Chi-Chung Chen, Bruce A. McCarl, and Rodney F. Weiher. “The Economic Consequences of ENSO Events for Agriculture.” Climate Research 13: 165-172, 1999: 2 Georgakakos, K.P., and N.E. Graham, 2008: Potential Benefits of Seasonal Inflow Prediction Uncertainty for reservoir release decisions, J. Appl. Meteor. And Climatol., 47, 1297-1321. 3 Golnaraghi, M, J. Douris, and J.B. Migraine, Saving Lives Through Early Warning Systems and Emergency Preparedness, Risk Wise, Tudor Rose Publishing, pp 137-141, 2009. 4 Gunasekera, D. : Economic issues relating to meteorological service provision (BMRC Research Report No. 102, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2002 5 Meza, F.J., J.W. Hansen and D. Osgood,: Economic Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agriculture: Review of Ex-Ante Assessments and Recommendations for Future Research, J. Appl. Meteorol and Climatol., 47, 1269–1286, 2008. 6 WMO-No.15, Convention of the World Meteorological Organization, Basic Documents No.1, 2007 edition. __________ World Meteorological Organization EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1) EXECUTIVE COUNCIL Submitted by: Date: SIXTY-SECOND SESSION Original Language: Geneva, 8 to 18 June 2010 Agenda Item: Secretary-General & Chairman, EC Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning 31.V.2010 English 7.2 Expected Result: 11 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE AND OVERSIGHT OF THE ORGANIZATION Strategic Thrust: Efficient Management and Good Governance STRATEGIC PLAN AND OPERATING PLAN PROGRESS/ACTIVITY REPORT SUMMARY Reference: EC-LXII/Doc. 7.2(1) CONTENT OF DOCUMENT: Appendices: A. B. Progress/Activity Report Detailed description of the Structure, Strategic Thrusts, Expected Results and Key Outcomes of the WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A PROGRESS/ACTIVITY REPORT STRATEGIC PLAN AND OPERATING PLAN Summary of Cg/EC guidance and directives 1. EC-LXI, taking into consideration the guidance and directives concerning the WMO strategic planning process from Cg-XV and EC-LX, and the recommendations of Executive Council Working Group on Strategic and Operational Planning (EC WG/SOP, March 2009), gave guidance for the development of WMO SP and OP 2012-2015 as follows: Strategic Plan 2012-2015 (a) The strategic direction of the Organization should be based on a set of Global Societal Needs (GSN) given in Table 1 of Annex VI to paragraph 7.2.7 of the EC-LXI report; (b) To use the “results chain”, i.e. Strategic Thrusts (ST) -> Expected Results (ER) -> Key Outcomes (KO) -> Deliverables -> Activities, as the structure of the strategic planning process; (c) Strategic Plan and Operating Plan should be concise and easily understood by different audiences including decision-makers; (d) To describe what stakeholders outside WMO expect from the Organization in the medium and longer term; (e) The framework of the next SP should consist of the five Strategic Thrusts (ST) and eight Organization-wide Expected Results (ER) given in Table 2 of Annex VI to paragraph 7.2.7 of the EC-LXI report; (f) The STs should be elaborated according to the outline given in Table 3 of Annex VI to paragraph 7.2.7 of the EC-LXI report; (g) To develop a focused set of limited Key Performance Indicators highlighting the added value of the services rendered by the Organization to its Members; (h) The Key Performance Indicators should remain stable and be measurable over the longer term enabling the monitoring and performance evaluation process; (i) The framework given in Table 4 of Annex VI to paragraph 7.2.7 of the EC-LXI report should guide the design of such a revised set of clear, measurable and result-oriented performance metrics; (j) To involve regional associations and technical commissions in the development of Expected Results and Key Performance Indicators, Key Outcomes and a manageable number of related performance measurement parameters and to ensure that those are based on Members’ needs and adequately reflect the programme areas of the Organization; (k) Include achievements of WMO (Table 5 of Annex VI to paragraph 7.2.8 of the EC-LXI report). EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A, p. 2 WMO Operating Plan (a) To involve technical commissions and regional associations from the outset of the strategic planning process facilitate the development of Operating Plan on an Organization-wide basis in line with the decisions of Cg and EC; (b) To develop the KOs in an active coordination process involving EC, RAs, TCs and the Secretariat in a form that relates to the WMO Programmes and provides the basis for the necessary programme activities, the budget planning and the resulting budget proposal; (c) To identify and benefit from cross-programme synergies between the technical commissions and regional associations so as to obtain effective and optimized programme implementation plans; (d) To identify and describe in the WMO Operating Plan the roles and responsibilities of constituent bodies. Planning Documents (a) WMO Strategic Plan together with WMO Strategic Executive Summary; (b) Secretariat Implementation Plan and Budget; (c) WMO Operating Plan. 2. Progress in the development of WMO Strategic Plan and Operating Plan 2012-2015 2.1 Strategic Plan 2.1.1 The structure of the SP for the period 2012-2015 is based on the decisions of EC-LXI. 2.1.2 The presidents of TCs and RAs have been involved in the process and provided inputs that were integrated into the draft SP. 2.1.3 Every effort was made to have a close linkage among the planning documents including with WMO Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) system. 2.1.4 The Key Outcomes and performance indicators are linked to the associated Expected Results to facilitate the monitoring and evaluation in the progress in the achievement of results. 2.1.5 The draft WMO Strategic Executive Summary is aimed at communicating the strategic direction of WMO to the Members and partners. 2.2 Secretariat Operating Plan and Budget 2.2.1 The WMO Results-based Budget and the Secretariat Implementation Plan, based on the decisions of EC-LXI on the structure of OP, are submitted under a separate document. 2.3 WMO Operating Plan 2.3.1 The TCs and RAs were requested to develop their operating plans for the period 20122015 based on the Strategic Plan and the template used to develop the Secretariat Implementation Plan and Budget. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A, p. 3 2.3.2 The inputs from TCs, RAs and Secretariat were used to develop WMO Operating Plan for the period 2012-2015. 2.3.3 More guidance was needed on further development of the Operating Plan that would be presented to the 2011 meeting of the WG on SOP, taking into consideration that the Strategic Plan and the Results-based Budget (RBB) will be submitted to Members in October 2010, six months before Congress, as is required. 3. The third session of the EC WG/SOP 3.1 The third session of the working group, held in Geneva from 29 to 31 March 2010, considered the WMO SP, the WMO Strategic Executive Summary, Secretariat Implementation Plan and Budget, and the progress in the development of WMO-wide Operating Plan, among other issues related to their responsibility. 3.2 The recommendations of the working group related to the WMO SP, Operating Plan, and Secretariat Implementation Plan and Budget (see Annex to this paragraph) were integrated into the respective documents submitted to EC-LXII. __________ Annex: 1 EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A, p. 4 ANNEX Annex to paragraph 3.2 RECOMMENDATIONS TO EXECUTIVE COUNCIL FOR ENDORSEMENT FROM THE THIRD SESSION OF THE EC WORKING GROUP ON WMO STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL PLANNING (WG/SOP) (GENEVA, 29-31 MARCH 2010) Recommendations concerning the draft WMO Strategic and Operating Plan 2012-2015 (agenda item 3) Strategic Plan 1. The working group (WG) noted that the document showed marked improvement from the zero-draft that had been shared in December 2009, and the short version, which did not give details on KO and KPI, considered more appropriate for decision-making. The working group noted, however, that more work need to be done to improve KPI based on the results from WMO Monitoring and Evaluation. 2. The WG suggested that the following be considered in the further development of the Strategic Plan 2012-2015: (a) Improve the introduction by using materials in the conclusion of the document circulated in December 2009 and have a shorter introduction; (b) Improve the presentation of economic benefits of NMHSs; (c) Under ER 2 – consider inclusion of a reference to a drought early warning system; (d) Under ER 3 – consider inclusion of a reference to drought prediction for risk management; (e) KO 5.5 - A reference to prediction of the Asian Monsoon/ENSO; (f) Focus on enabling Members to engage in research (ER5); (g) Make priority areas more visible and ensure consistency and alignment with the 5 Strategic Thrusts, and the Secretariat Implementation Plan and budget document. Bullet points in the introduction should also better align with the rest of the document; (h) Further improve linkages between KPI’s and outcomes; (i) Revisit text on Capacity Building (CB) to: (i) ensure that the priority capacity building interventions are in LDC’s and developing countries; and (ii) and resolve how to deal with CB as a Strategic Thrust and as an ER; (j) Rework ER 6 KO’s and KPI’s based on feedback from the EC Panel on Education and Training; (k) Aviation be included as a priority – either in KOs or KPIs; EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A, p. 5 (l) Ensure that the document reflects tools for enabling Members to achieve ER’s and that the articulation also captures the strategic directional issues and differentiates from the tools (e.g. ER 5 and use of demonstration projects); and (m) Correct/review the definition in the Strategic Plan of the WMO Operating Plan with regard to programme activities and their contribution to ERs. In FP15 the WMO had a Secretariat OP in the FP 16 there will be a WMO OP. The WMO budget will need to clearly reflect how funding of activities in FP16 relates to similar activities in FP15, taking note of the change in nature of the OP. 3. The WG recommended that: (i) the short document be used as the primary strategic planning document for approval by Congress; (ii) the current long-version which includes the ‘architecture of the planning process’ be attached as an Annex; and (iii) that the reworked Strategic Plan be submitted to the EC for its consideration Operating Plan 4. The WG suggested that: (a) Effectiveness and efficiency of TCs are separate issues that need to be analyzed separately. In streamlining operations close attention in the WMO OP (which contains the Secretariat Operating Plan) needs to be given to the effectiveness of the working mechanism affected; (b) The Operating Plan that includes contributions by the TC’s, RA’s and the EC Working Groups, Panels and Committees be prepared in a format that clearly identifies the links among ER’s, KO’s and the budget; (c) A time-table for providing inputs into the Operating Plans be prepared to facilitate timely submissions of inputs; (d) The Secretariat to facilitate the sharing of inputs between synergies; (e) The EC Panels, including the EC Panel on Polar Meteorology, be requested to provide inputs to WMO-wide Operating Plan; and (f) The meetings of TCs should focus on outcomes and decisions that define follow-up actions. RAs and TCs to enhance 5. The working group recommended that the WMO-wide Operating Plan be further developed and submitted to EC-LXII for consideration. Recommendations on Secretariat implementation plan and budget, including ZNG implications for 1996-2011 (agenda item 7.2) 6. The working group considered the consistency between the Strategic Plan and budget presentation 2012-2015. The Chairman outlined a number of proposals on how to improve the current format of the presentation. These included a more detailed comparison between the budget proposal for 2012-2015 with 2008-2011, activity description by WMO Programmes and detailed budget estimates by activity, including the implications of budget reductions under Options 1 and 2. The Chairman made reference and presented a resource format recently used for the ETR programme. Issues related to the selection and costing of the four budget priorities were discussed, including the linkage between priorities and strategic thrusts. The resource EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX A, p. 6 allocations by Expected Results were reviewed, in particular the adequacy of resources for priority areas. 7. It was suggested that: (a) The budget presentation be reworked to ease comparisons between the financial periods at programmatic level without detracting from the value of results-based management approach; (b) It should be made clear how the WMO-wide Operating Plan that reflects the work of TCs ,RAs, and EC subsidiary bodies influences the budgeting allocations to programmes; (c) The Secretariat explores additional opportunities to enhance efficiency by, among others, reducing the number and length of meetings, streamlining administrative procedures and reviewing the staff distribution between professional and general service category; (d) Priority areas in strategic plan and those in the proposed budget should be aligned so that the resource allocation to those priorities is clearer; and (e) Ensure that % allocations of budget to ERs can be explained in how these allocations align to the Strategic Plan. 8. The working group requested that the document be submitted early to FINAC and EC for further consideration. 9. The working group recommended that the revised Secretariat Implementation Plan and Budget (2012-2015) that takes into account the above suggestions be submitted to FINAC in May 2011 and EC-62 for their further consideration 10. The WG recommended that the Secretariat Implementation Plan be referred to as the Secretariat Operating Plan which would be embedded within the WMO Operating Plan. __________ EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B DRAFT Detailed Description of the Structure, Strategic Thrusts, Expected Results and Key Outcomes of the WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 Table of Contents The Structure of the WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 Strategic Thrusts linking to Expected Results, Key Outcomes and Key Performance Indicators Page – Improving service quality and service delivery ...................................................5 – Advancing scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology………………………….. .........................................8 – Strengthening capacity building ............................................. 15 – Building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation ........................................ 18 – Strengthening good governance...................................................................... 20 – WMO Operating Plan ................................................................................................... 22 – WMO Results-based Budget......................................................................................... 22 – Monitoring and evaluation ............................. …………………………………………….22 – Conclusion ................................................................................................................23 EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 2 The Structure of the WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 Starting with the three Global Societal Needs (GSNs), the WMO Strategic Plan defines five Organization-wide Strategic Thrusts (STs) and eight Expected Results (ERs) to achieve its vision (Table 1). Table 1: Schematic representation of the structure of WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 The eight ERs are further delineated by Key Outcomes (KOs) and their associated key performance indicators to measure the success in achieving the results. Within the five Strategic Thrusts and eight Expected Results are the following five priority areas that have significant contribution to the achievement of the expected results: • • • Global Framework for Climate Services; Aviation meteorological services; Capacity Building for the developing and least developed countries; EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 3 • • Implementation of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS); and Disaster Risk Reduction. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is a major initiative for WMO. The Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegations at the World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva, Switzerland, 2009) decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) “to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services.” The Framework will benefit from and contribute to the achievement of the outcomes of most of the ERs. Agriculture Health Transport Tourism Sectoral Users Energy Water Ecosystem Fisharies Climate User Interface Programme Climate Services Information System Observations Observations Climate research, modeling and prediction Capacity Building Figure 1: Components of the Global Framework for Climate Services In addition to the pillars of observations, climate research, modelling and predictions, Climate Services Information System and Climate User Interface Programme are the two new components of the Framework (Figure 1). The progress made and systems developed over the years under the World Climate Programme through Members and their NMHSs will form the foundation for developing the GFCS. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 4 The Key Outcomes under GFCS address the needs of its components. Expected Result Key Outcome Key Performance Indicator Contributing Programmes ER 4 (primary) only KO 1: Provision of improved comprehensive climate observations ER 3 (primary result)/ER 5 (secondary) KO 2: Improved and sustained interaction between the research, the operational prediction and product development and the sectoral user communities for putting climate and applied climate research advances into practice under GFCS Number of climate data and metadata standards and protocols established and adopted by Members • Number of NMSs participating in regional research projects transferring research products to operational products • Number of NMSs using and interpreting climate change scenarios in interaction with users ER 3 (primary only) KO 3: Improved infrastructure and standardized technical procedures and tools, for development and coordinated flow of GFCS information and products • World Climate Programme, World Climate Research Programme, Global Climate Observing System, World Weather Watch Programme, Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, Technical Cooperation Programme, Hydrology and Water Resources Programme, Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme, WMO Space Programme, Regional Programme, and Applications of Meteorology Programme KO 4: Enhanced and expanded user interface mechanisms, user-driven outlook forums and information portals • KO 5: Enhanced capacities to carry out GFCS climate functions • ER 3 (primary)/ ER 1 (secondary) ER 3 (primary)/ ER 6 (secondary) • • • Number of new standardized products, tools and procedures established and operationalized Number of RCCs established Number of Members interacting with users while providing climate services, Number of NCOFs established Number of Members with formal National Climate Centres, accessing global and regional products, and transmitting climate products for national needs Number of Members with trained and certified climate professionals A detailed description of the other priority areas is provided under the result to which they have the highest contribution. The involvement of the WMO Technical Commissions, Regional Associations and the Secretariat in the strategic planning process ensures a focused and coordinated approach across the Organization. This Strategic Plan, while focused on the financial period 2012–2015, takes into consideration longer term social, economic and technological issues facing the Organization. It also serves as the foundation for the WMO Operating Plan, WMO Results-based Budget, and the performance monitoring and evaluation activities, which together define the detailed deliverables, performance targets and the allocation of resources to achieve the Expected Results. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 5 Strategic Thrust 1: Improving Service Quality and Service Delivery WMO has facilitated the development of systems and standards for gathering, processing and sharing of weather, climate, water and related environmental observations to provide services for protecting life and property and spur socio-economic development. Despite improvements in understanding and the prediction of the global earth system, societies, especially in developing and least developed countries, are still vulnerable to severe weather and extreme climate conditions. Hence, there is much more for WMO to do to assist communities worldwide to benefit from improvements in the quality of weather, climate, water and related environmental services and their delivery. Weather, climate, water and related environmental information can only be of benefit if it reaches the users on time and in an understandable and usable form, to support decision-making. This requires collaborative efforts involving the providers and users of information to ensure that the needs of the users are integrated in the development of the products and to enhance feedback between the providers and users of information for further improvement. Upgrades in telecommunications and other technologies for transmitting information from providers to users are required to increase the speed and volume of information provided and to reduce costs. Those who provide the information must better understand the users’ needs and how information is applied in decisionand new making, techniques will need to be developed to provide it This strategic thrust is aimed at accomplishing the following tasks: • Enhance the delivery of services by improving the speed, volume and cost-effectiveness of telecommunications systems to ensure timely and cost effective delivery of information and products for use in planning, policy formulation and decision-making; • Enhance the ability of the NMHSs to address user needs by implementing procedures for receiving inputs and feedbacks from users (e.g. rolling review of users’ needs and feedbacks), making them more aware and capable of responding to the users with their information and services; • Develop climate services within the NMHSs and at regional centres for multiple users, including those in hydrology, agriculture and fisheries that are essential to sustain water and food security; • Increase the provision of weather, climate, water and related environmental information to various planners and policy makers for sustainable development practitioners; • Expand the provision of weather information needed to improve aviation safety and air traffic management; • Improve the operational oceanographic and marine meteorological services that many Members provide by delivering more specific and targeted marine products to users; • Enhance capabilities and capacities of NMHSs with respect to disaster risk reduction in the weather, climate and water domains, with strengthened appropriate mechanisms at the national and international levels; in partnership with other international organizations; • Bolster the effectiveness of multi-hazard early warning by augmenting capabilities and capacities to produce and deliver warnings related to a broader range of environmental hazards, including tsunamis, accidental nuclear releases, volcanic eruptions and other environmental events. Strategic Thrust 1 has two Expected Results (ER 1 and ER 2) together with their key outcomes and performance indicators and one priority area. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of these ERs include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR), and WMO Space Programme (WMOSP). EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 6 Expected Result 1(ER 1): Enhanced capabilities of Members to deliver and improve access to high-quality weather, climate, water and related environmental predictions, information and services in response to users’ needs and to enable their use in decision-making by all relevant societal sectors In the past, weather services predominated and were supply driven, largely limited by the time constraints on what products could be sent to clients prior to decision-making in the weather sensitive sectors. Increasingly the requirements for services have broadened to include weather, climate, water and related environmental services and less time-critical decisions. Furthermore the variety of information available has expanded substantially, and continues to expand, requiring the service provider to understand the use of the information in order to tailor the information to the needs of the user. While the requirements differ from sector to sector, the common need is for integration of weather, climate, water and related environmental information and products within a single (seamless) service. Noting that needs change over time and new service clients emerge, an effective rolling review of client needs is required to plan the development, production, application and distribution of new products. Aviation Meteorological Services is a priority area of focus under this ER 1. The economic and social benefits that can be derived from air transport make it one of the world’s most important industries. Air transport, for example, is a critical factor in world trade and plays a major role in the development of a globalized economy. As an economic catalyst for growth, air transport has a tremendous impact on the performance of regional economies, both through its own activities and as an enabler of other industries in catalytic or spin-off benefits. The ability to increase access to markets by air for example is particularly relevant for most of the landlocked countries. The advances in air transport have created the need to improve the delivery of services to the sector that contribute to the safety, regularity and efficiency of international air navigation. Such improvements require more training of staff and upgrading of infrastructure. The implementation of quality management system (QMS) comprising of procedures, processes and resources necessary to facilitate quality management of the meteorological information supplied to the users is paramount and has, as from the 22 February 2010 been upgraded by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council to a standard to be met by NMHSs by November 2012. Most of the WMO Members, especially the LDCs and SIDS, have not yet implemented QMS in their service provision and the time left as well as the resources needed will pose an enormous challenge for them to meet the deadline. The demonstration of competencies for aeronautical meteorological personnel is also part of the challenge facing NMHSs. The NMHSs in developing and least developed countries, and Small Island Developing States will require support to meet these challenges. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 7 The Key Outcome under ER 1 addresses the rapidly changing paradigm for the provision of weather, climate, water and related environmental services. Key Outcome KO 1.1 improved access to seamless weather, climate, water, and relatedenvironmental products and services (e.g., warnings, forecasts and supporting information) KO 1.2 Delivery of weather, climate, water and related environmental products and services to users’ communities is improved Key Performance Indicators • • • Analyses showing the social and economic benefits of the improved services Contributing Programmes World Weather Watch Programme Applications of Meteorology Programme NMHSs with regular access to products provided by global and regional centres Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Increase in users with timely access to an increased number and range of products Applications of Meteorology Programme Overall coordination of WMO Scientific and Technical Programmes Expected Result 2 (ER 2): Enhanced capabilities of Members to reduce risks and potential impacts of hazards caused by weather, climate and water and related environmental elements The challenge for the NMHSs is to work with relevant sectors to develop products and information to support their specific needs for decision-making in responding to extreme climate, water and related environmental events. The products and information should meet the long-term needs for planning, development and public education and for risk reduction measures immediately prior to the onset of and during any potentially hazardous event. Disaster risk reduction is a priority area due to the negative influence of natural disasters on the achievement of the GSNs. Weather, climate and water related disasters continue to result in very high human and economic costs, and displacement of large populations in many countries, particularly in developing and least developed countries. By developing a set of contingency measures based on weather, climate, water and related early warning systems, including environmental information and services, nations can save more lives and reduce economic losses associated with natural disasters. Increasingly countries and donor agencies are drawing a strong link between disaster risk reduction and climate change, since they are recognizing that climate change can lead to the increased frequency and possibly intensity of certain types of extreme events, such as storm surges, heat waves and forest fires as well as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones. Costeffective adaptation measures require close working relationships between the NMHSs and other development agencies within countries, particularly in developing and least developed countries to develop and implement disaster risk reduction strategies nationally and regionally. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 8 The three Key Outcomes under ER 2 address the cooperation among NMHSs, national development agencies and national disaster management agencies for the reduction of the impacts of natural hazards. Key Outcomes KO 2.1: Multi-hazard early w arning systems are, implemented Key Performance Indicators • Increase in the number of NMHSs with multi-hazard early warning systems • Number of NMHSs integrated into national emergency management systems Contributing Programmes World Weather Watch Programme Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Technical Cooperation Programme • Developing country Members providing disaster risk reduction products and services KO 2.2: National integrated flood management plans are developed • Number of Members establishing flood management plans KO 2.3: Drought early warning systems are improved • NMHSs and Regional Centres issuing drought early warnings Applications of Meteorology Programme • Satisfaction in drought early warnings issued by NMHSs and Regional Centres World Climate Programme Hydrology and Water Resources Programme • Number of regional hydrological forecasting systems established in transboundary basins Strategic Thrusts 2: Advancing scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology Past advances in scientific research and applications as well as technology development and implementation have made significant contributions to the improvements in weather, climate, water and related environmental information and services. These improvements include better warning lead times, more accurate predictions and new products and services, such as air quality alerts, seasonal climate outlooks and other environmental products. However, many challenges still remain or have been exacerbated by population growth, greater use of marginal land areas, and human activities generally. Advances are needed in key scientific and technological areas to increase further the scope, accuracy and lead time of weather, climate, water and related environmental information and services. Further actions are needed to increase the availability of data from comprehensive and robust information networks for improving the quality of services. This strategic thrust is designed to accomplish the following tasks: • Implement and maintain integrated weather, climate, water and related environmental observing networks with improved resolution, accuracy, reliability, and timeliness to meet user needs; • Implement and maintain information systems enabling timely data exchange, analysis and management to improve the quality and timeliness of weather, climate, water and related environmental information, products and services; EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 9 • Develop and implement enhanced capabilities to significantly enhance the accuracy and lead time for very short-range (one to six hours) forecasts and warnings for meteorological and hydrological conditions; • Improve storm track and intensity forecasts to reduce the errors that in turn increase the overall cost of disaster mitigation activities, and, in worst case scenarios result in communities not being warned of hazardous weather events. • Provide quantitative measures of information certainty and/or uncertainty to increase the utility of weather, hydrology and seasonal climate information in decision-making, with a specific focus on ensemble prediction systems; • Improve the utility of weather, seasonal climate, marine and hydrology forecasts to allow advance planning in social and economic sectors, such as development, disaster risk management, transport, infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, fisheries, health and energy, which could generate significant socio-economic benefits; • Develop and implement better operational air quality and air chemistry capabilities needed to support governmental and other national initiatives aimed at enhancing the quality of life and protecting the environment; • Expand the use of scientific models and techniques in producing environmental information and services. In particular, it is planned to develop further and implement the capability to forecast many components of the environment simultaneously; • Improve the operational use of climate science to support societal needs to adapt to climate change and variability. Strategic Thrust 1 has three Expected Results (ER 3, ER 4 and ER 5) together with their key outcomes and performance indicators and three priority area for 2012-2015. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of these ERs include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP) including the co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP) Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP), and WMO Space Programme (WMOSP). Expected Result 3 (ER 3): Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better weather, climate, water and related environmental information, prediction and warnings to support in particular climate impact and adaptation strategies Global Framework for Climate Services is a priority area under ER 3 especially as it relates to the two new pillars of the Framework namely the Climate Services Information System (CSIS) and the Climate User Interface Programme. An important feature of the Framework (Figure 1), is the close interaction between users and providers of climate information and products, (i.e., Climate User Interface Programme), with the value of the service being judged on its ability to improve decision-making. The CSIS will develop better climate information and prediction products from operational NMHS systems and disseminate them more effectively to meet user needs. The progress made and systems developed over the years under the World Climate Programme through Members and their NMHSs will form the foundation for developing the CSIS. To achieve ER 3, and make climate information, products and services more useful to society and relevant in day-to-day decision-making for impact studies and adaptation strategies, the mechanisms established under the World Climate Programme (e.g., Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS)) would be strengthened, expanded and operationalized based on the existing Global Producing Centre (GPC)–Regional Climate Centre (RCC)-Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF)-NMHS framework. WMO will continue to mobilize resources to expand the RCC capabilities in vulnerable regions. CSIS will facilitate regular and effective flow of climate EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 10 information from global to national levels. Widespread social, economic and environmental benefits are expected through more effective climate risk management and increased capacities for adaptation to climate variability and change. Greater emphasis on sectoral applications, such as those in agriculture, water resource management, energy and disaster risk reduction, will be necessary. The priority in generating hydrologic information and products will be on enhanced, quality efficiency and effectiveness. Among the initiatives will be to prepare guidance materials to be utilized to increase the capacities of the NMHSs, particularly in developing and least developed countries, to improve hydrological forecasting, water resources assessment and management, and adaptation to climate variability and change. WMO also will seek to mobilize resources for the improvement of hydrological networks in developing and least developed countries. The four Key Outcomes under ER 3, together with the key performance indicators, address improvements in long range predictions, climate information and products and hydrological information and products. Key Outcomes KO 3.1: Improved Long range forecasts and longterm projections KO 3.2: Climate information and prediction products for climate adaptation and risk management are improved Key Performance Indicators • • • • • • KO 3.3: Hydrological information and products, including water resource assessments, are improved • • KO 3.4: Drought information and prediction for risk management is improved • • Number of standardized products (e.g., monthly and seasonal predictions, climate watches) provided by Members Number of Members providing standardized products Number of operational Regional Climate Centres providing inputs for the National Climate Centres Number of Members with formal National Climate Centres, accessing global and regional products, using the guidance materials and transmitting climate products for national needs Number of Members interacting with users while providing climate services, through formal mechanisms including National Climate Outlook Forums, in support of adaptation and climate risk management in key socio-economic sectors Members using best practices for climate adaptation and risk management in key socio-economic sectors Number of Members having established a Quality Management Frameworks for Hydrology using current guidance materials for hydrology and water resource management Number of regional hydrological data bases developed in transboundary river basins NMHSs and Regional Centres issuing drought information and prediction Satisfaction in drought information and predictions issued by NMHSs and Regional Centres Contributing Programmes World Weather Watch Programme World Climate Programme World Climate Programme Hydrology and Water Resources Programme Applications of Meteorology Programme World Climate Programme EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 11 Expected Result 4 (ER 4): Enhanced capabilities of Members to access, develop, implement and use integrated and interoperable surface-based and space-based systems for weather, climate and hydrological observations, as well as related environmental observations, based on world standards set by WMO WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS) are priority areas under ER 4. Weather, climate, water and related observations, gathered by NMHSs and partners, form the foundations for the delivery of all services provided by NMHSs and for much of the research to improve our understanding of the Earth system together with its prediction. The Fifteenth WMO Congress (Cg-XV, May 2007), decided to establish the WMO Integrated Global Observing Systems (WIGOS), a coordinated, comprehensive and sustainable system, to address observational requirements of all WMO Programmes and partners, including those of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) of the Group on Earth Observations(GEO), in the most cost-effective way. The WIGOS will enhance observing capabilities, data and product quality, and interoperability among WMO global observing systems (GOS, GAW and WHYCOS) and other WMO co-sponsored observing systems (Figure 2).3 The goal is to provide improved information and products to support decision-making at all levels. Cg-XV also decided to develop and implement WIS as a pillar of WMO strategy to efficiently manage and move weather, climate water and related environmental information and products in the 21st century. The WIS provides an integrated approach suitable for all WMO Programmes to meet the requirements for routine collection and automated dissemination of observed data and products, as well as data discovery, access and retrieval services for all weather, climate, water and related data produced by centres and Members in the framework of any WMO Programme. The WIS will reduce the operation costs and enhance the reliability of data communications and provide easier, more user-friendly ways to share data nationally and internationally. Figure 2: The WMO Global Observing System that form the foundation for establishing WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) Under ER 4, the three Key Outcomes and associated key performance indicators, address improvements in three systems - WIGOS, WIS and a strengthened co-sponsorship Global 3 The WMO co-sponsored systems include the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 12 Observing System for Climate (GCOS)4, which facilitates the improvements in the quality of climate data of the total climate system to meet the needs of international, regional and national users of climate data and the derived products. • WIS will be implemented to provide an interoperable system for the collection, exchange and management of observational data, products and information to support all WMO activities. In particular WIS will enhance data access, retrieval, product generation, and data management capabilities to meet WIGOS, disaster risk reduction and evolving requirements of the GFCS and other future needs; • WIGOS will build on and improve coordination of the existing WMO global observing components (GOS, GAW, and WHYCOS). It will enhance the observational data and products quality by improving the standardization and QMF. WIGOS will respond to the evolving needs of the GFCS by facilitating the availability of high-quality and compatible observations and data on a sustainable manner. The GCOS provides support for the observational needs of the GFCS, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and WMO Membersin their national climate services in meeting their obligations in various international conventions such as UNFCCC, the UN-CCD and the Ozone Convention. 4 The GCOS has the responsibility for setting the requirements of climate observations and related data and products and working with WMO components (NMHSs, technical commissions, regional associations) and its observing system partners (e.g., GOOS, GTOS, CEOS, GEOSS of the GEO) to improve climate observations for all observing system domains and from both ground-based and space-based systems. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 13 The three Key Outcomes and their associated Key Performance Indicators under ER 4 include WMO activities to improve the quality and availability of observations together with the efficiency of the systems to process and exchange data, observations and products. Key Outcomes KO 4.1: WMO Integrated Global Observing System is implemented Key Performance Indicators • Completion of WIGOS milestones according to WIGOS implementation plan • Increased availability of observations for users Contributing Programmes World Weather Watch Programme World Climate ProgrammeGlobal Climate Observing System (WCP-GCOS) Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme WMO Space Programme Hydrology and Water Resources Programme Applications of Meteorology Programme WMO Space Programme KO 4.2: WMO Information System is developed and implemented KO 4.3: Accessible climate observations and climate data archives at the NMHSs and global data centres are increased • Implementation of WIS by NMHSs with continuous access to observations and products to meet the needs of the NMHSs and national users and to enhance capabilities of Members to access data and products • Enhanced capabilities for data processing and management • Progress in implementing the Global Climate Observing System • Increase in projects to rescue and digitize climate data, to improve the use and exchange of high quality climate data sets and to assess the state of the global climate system • Number of Members developing and implementing modern climate monitoring systems, including Climate Watch Systems World Weather Watch Programme World Climate Programme Expected Result 5 (ER 5): Enhanced capabilities of Members to contribute to and draw benefits from the global research capacity for weather, climate, water and environmental science and technology development The scientific community, policy makers and many sectoral users look to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to provide the most up-to-date climate research products and tools. The improvements in climate models and prediction systems, as well as in downscaling tools for regional applications, will provide key inputs to climate change adaptation planning, the Ozone Convention, the IPCC and the GFCS. Advances in predictive skill for seasons and longer timescales will have direct benefits for NMHSs and their clients. The unifying theme of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) is predicting weather events that are potentially economically disruptive or life threatening, or significantly impact the EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 14 environment or the quality of life. The WWRP aims to accelerate progress in predictive skill and in utilizing high-impact weather forecasts, including those of severe weather, hydrological and environmental events as well as those that can lead to significant economic or other desirable benefits. WWRP programmes, including THORPEX, emphasize technology transfer, training and development of new services and seek to involve and benefit WMO Members in developing and least developing countries, particularly through regional research and training. The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), a part of WIGOS, provides atmospheric constituent and air quality measurements and information that are important for several international conventions including the UNFCCC, the Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Stratospheric Ozone Layer, and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. Numerical weather prediction models are increasingly assimilating aerosols and ozone observations to improve weather forecasts and climate products as well as deliver air quality forecasts. Future research will follow a balanced and seamless approach to weather, climate and water services, including developing forecasts of a broader range of environmental parameters, such as air quality, sand and dust storms, and changes in vegetation, to meet the needs of users and the urgent demands to reduce the vulnerability of communities. For example, improving the skill of seasonal forecasts would contribute greatly to reducing risks and vulnerability to natural disasters and adapting to the impacts of climate variability and change. Figure 3 shows the relationships among current products, potentially predictable climate information and needed climate information together with the directions for applied research are suggested by the purple overlap region. Decades Outlook Threats Assessments Forecasts Anthropogenic Forcing Years Forecast Lead Time Predictio n Guidance Forecast Uncertainty Centuries Climate Change. Change. Scenarios Climate Variability Seasons Months Boundary Conditions 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Environment State/Local Planning Commerce Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Water Resource Planning Agriculture Hydropower Fire Weather Transportation Space Applications Water Management Protection of Life & Property Applications Figure, 3: Schematic diagram showing the challenges of developing ‘seamless’ products and Services, and the available climate information and gaps (Source: NOAA). The future approach to weather, climate and water research, predictions and services will: • Take a unified approach over multiple time and spatial scales, including a requirement for the downscaling of climate information; • Invest in increasingly high-performance computing to accommodate the increasing complexity and detail of models; • Develop closer linkages between research, operations and users, e.g., through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP). EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 15 The five Key Outcomes and associated key performance indicators under ER 5 address improvements in prediction of weather and climate, and observations and assessments of atmospheric chemistry. Key Outcomes KO 5.1: Research in climate prediction/projection to improve the skills of seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales is enhanced KO 5-2: Research in the prediction of high-impact weather on time scales of hours to seasons is enhanced KO 5-3: Atmospheric chemistry observations and assessment meet needs of environmental conventions and policy assessments KO 5-4 Seamless forecasts of weather, climate, water and the environment from months to seasons are developed KO 5.5: Predictions/projections of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoons are improved Key Performance Indicators • Increase in projects to advance climate research • NMHS in developing and least developed countries contributing to relevant regional and international research initiatives • Measures of skill and value of climate predictions and projections to national and regional climate services • Increased research on operations products and services • NMHS in developing and least developed countries contributing to relevant regional and international research initiatives. Improvements in the number of internationally coordinated weather research initiatives and/or forecast demonstration projects completed • Regular bulletins on global atmospheric chemistry are provided to environmental conventions and policy assessments; • Number of technical reports, measurement guidelines and scientific analyses linking atmospheric chemistry to weather, climate, water and the environment • Increase in the implementation of WMO Global Integrated Forecast System by NMHSs • Improvement in skill of monthly to seasonal forecasting systems • Improvements in the skills of ENSO and monsoon forecasts • Satisfaction in the predictions/projections of ENSO and monsoons Contributing Programmes World Climate Research Programme Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme World Climate Research Programme World Climate Programme World Climate Research Programme Strategic Thrust 3: Strengthening Capacity-Building The human resource and infrastructure capacities of an NMHS have a significant influence on the quality of services. Equally important is the ability of the users to interpret and integrate information from service providers, including NMHSs into decision-making. Hence, capacity building involving the NMHSs and the users of weather, climate, water and related environmental services is essential in addressing the GSNs. WMO has over decades supported the building of capacity in NMHSs in all parts of the world, thereby making an invaluable contribution to the safety of life and property globally. The capacity-building strategic thrust is important for: • Fostering, as appropriate, regional and national approaches to upgrading capacity of NMHSs in basic systems, data acquisition and dissemination technologies, communications, client relations and service delivery; EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 16 • Increasing the capacity of Members’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services especially in developing and least developed countries to align their services with the specific development needs in their countries; • Strengthening the scientific and technical capacity of developing and least developed countries to develop and apply weather-, climate-, water and environmental-related information and products in support of socio-economic development; • Enhancing the capacity of developing nations to optimize their own investments and incountry donor funded activities that boost their capacity to provide user-relevant services; • Assisting in the broadening of governmental and public education in Member countries to improve awareness on weather, climate, water and related environmental services; • Implementing initiatives to build the capacity of societies to address the different needs and experiences of men and women in the development of environmental products and services. Despite continued improvements in science and technology, many NMHSs in developing and least developed countries often cannot take advantage of these improvements due to inadequate infrastructure and insufficient skilled human resource. Users in these countries may also lack the capacity to interpret and integrate information into decision-making. This generally results in inadequate generation and use of weather, climate, water and related environmental information and services to meet the socio-economic needs in these countries. Hence capacity building remains a high priority for addressing the GSNs. For many NMHSs and Regional Centres, particularly in developing and least developed countries, the needs for highly qualified personnel is outstripping the capacity of the NMHSs to attract such personnel due to rapid changes in demand for services and the current losses to retirement of their aging workforce and natural attrition worsened by HIV/AIDS epidemic. Institutional capacity building is needed to improve management, planning and policy development skills and to strengthen their national and regional coordination. Further efforts are needed in strategic planning and the valuation of socio-economic benefits of weather, water, climate and other environmental services – to gain a higher profile within their governments, countries and regions. This would allow them to be better positioned to secure resources and to make stronger contributions to economic sectors in achieving development goals at local, national and regional levels. The media is a primary tool for communicating relevant environmental information to the public and to decision makers. NMHSs, especially in many developing and least developed countries, need to enhance their capacity to utilize the media effectively. Building capacity in communications, especially through print and electronic media, is needed to improve the effectiveness of information delivery to society. In many countries, the public and decision-makers are not aware of the information, products and services from NMHSs beyond the daily weather forecasts. WMO would enhance its efforts in communicating the benefits of its services and products, through education of both those who deliver and those who use weather, climate, water, oceanic and air quality information, especially in developing and least developed countries. Full benefits will only be achieved through continued capacity-building for users and providers. The UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) recognize the need to promote gender equality and empowerment of women. Women and children are the most adversely affected by natural disasters especially in developing and least developed countries. There is a need to develop skills to provide services tailored to the needs of women, who act as family protectors in times of disasters, play a significant role in agriculture and food production, water resources management, and use environmental resources. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 17 Capacity Building for the developing and least developed countries is a priority area in ER 6 since it is critical for improving the NMHSs’ capabilities and capacities to improve the quality and delivery services together with the involvement with users in other governmental organizations, civil society, private sector and intergovernmental groupings. The main objectives of this priority area are to: • Give particular attention to the capacity development needs of NMHSs in developing countries, Least Developed Countries and Small Islands Developing States to address specific issues such as forecaster qualifications for aviation meteorology, the GFCS and disaster risk reduction; • Increase awareness of the socio-economic benefits of the products and services provided by the NMHSs and regional centres, including their contribution to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals; • Assist NMHSs managers with tools for building effective communication with governments, policy- and decision-makers, and development partners; • Continuously assess and address NMHS training needs, including professional training and development, technical training, project development and management training; • Expand the number of strategic partnerships with internal and external stakeholders; • Support the above initiatives through enhanced resource mobilization. Strategic Thrust 3 has one Expected Result (ER 6) together with the associated key outcomes and performance indicators. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of this ER include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP), Regional Programme (RP) including the Least Developing Countries programme (LDCP), Technical Cooperation Programme (TCOP), Application of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) and WMO Space Programme (WMOSP) Expected Result 6 (ER 6): Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs, in particular in developing and least developed countries, to fulfill their mandates The NMHSs and the Regional Centres have basic systems, physical infrastructure and human resources that are crucial for the production and delivery of improved weather, water and climate services for their governments, public and private sectors and national decision-making. To meet the current and future demands for these services, improvements must be made in their infrastructure and systems with special emphasis on the future developments of multi-hazard warning and response systems and climate services to support the Global Framework for Climate Services. These efforts will require financing from governments and voluntary extrabudgetary contributions and their success will depend on the ability to mobilize resources from multiple sources. ER 6, together with the associated four key outcomes and performance indicators, will be accomplished by WMO, through cooperative efforts with Members and international and regional partners with particular attention to the needs of developing and least developed countries. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 18 Key Outcomes KO 6.1: NMHSs and Regional Centres are improved, particularly in developing and least developed countries Key Performance Indicators • • KO 6.2: Infrastructure and operational facilities of NMHSs and Regional Centres are improved, particularly in developing and least developed countries • • Number of NMHSs and WMO Regional Centres with defined roles in national and regional socioeconomic development activities, in cooperation with international and regional development agencies Number of NMHSs with programmes and networks for collaborating on service delivery at regional levels Number of NMHSs with improvement in infrastructure and operational facilities to address identified deficiencies Number of NMHSs with modernized capacities to develop and disseminate products to their customers Contributing Programmes Technical Cooperation Programme Regional Programme World Weather Watch Programme, World Climate Programme Applications of Meteorology Programme Hydrology and Water Resources Programme Technical Cooperation Programme Disaster Risk Reduction Programme WMO Space Programme KO 6.3: Education and Training Development activities at national and regional levels are improved, especially in developing and least developed countries • • • KO 6.4: Capacities of NMHSs are enhanced through cooperation and partnerships with other national and regional organizations • The number of RTCs providing education and training support for GFCS related activities The degree to which Members are getting value for money from the WMO Fellowship Programme The degree to which the RTCs support the regional training demands in particular for students from developing and least developed countries Development projects and activities funded through voluntary and extrabudgetary resources Education and Training Programme (ETRP) Technical Cooperation Programme Least Developed Countries Programme Technical Cooperation Programme Least Developed Countries Programme Strategic Thrust 4: Building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation The complexity of the Earth system and the interconnections between weather, water, climate and related environmental processes and hazards are increasingly challenging the scientific and financial capacity of WMO to improve the quality and accuracy of information and products. No single government or agency has the necessary resources to address all the challenges on its own. Consequently, the Organization’s success depends on its ability to partner effectively with internal stakeholders and external organizations in addressing the GSNs. The partnership strategic thrust is important to: • Heighten understanding and use of WMO’s environmental information and service capabilities by the United Nations system, WMO Members, and international and national organizations, e.g., in implementing the GFCS and other initiatives; • Enhance partnerships with other major international scientific organizations due to the increasing complexity and multi-disciplinary of the basic science issues required to provide improved products and services; EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 19 • Enhance WMO’s ability to increase the scope of its information and products and to develop and sustain service improvements by leveraging the capabilities of partners. Further the responsiveness of Member’s agencies to emerging requirements is expected to increase by this cooperation; • Broaden partnerships between developed, developing and least developed countries involving relevant national agencies, e.g., with emergency management agencies; and • Maintain a proactive role in ensuring a coherent, science-based approach within the United Nations system and among other stakeholders to implement environmental conventions, including outcomes of World Summits and follow-up to all relevant United Nations Conventions. Strategic Thrust 4 has one expected result (ER 7) together with the associated key outcomes and performance indicators. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of this ER include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP) including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP), Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP) and Technical Cooperation Programme (TCOP). Expected Result 7 (ER 7): New and strengthened partnerships and cooperation activities to improve NMHSs’ performance in delivering services and to increase the value of the contributions of WMO within the United Nations system, relevant international conventions and national strategies Through the GFCS WMO is expected to play a leading role in UN Delivering as One on Climate Knowledge (with UNESCO) and to have extensive collaboration with UN specialized agencies, funds and programmes, and intergovernmental institutions including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). WMO will strengthen its role in the UN Chief Executives Board and contribution to the implementation of the UN Conventions (i.e., UNFCCC, UNCCD and UNCBD), including through their subsidiary bodies on scientific technological advice (SBSTAs). WMO will continue to contribute to the further implementation of major international programmes of action (e.g. Hyogo Framework for Action on Disaster Risk Reduction, Nairobi Work Plan on Adaptation, Brussels Programme of Action (BPoA) for the LDCs). WMO has contributed to the development of and participates in the management of several cosponsored programmes and activities (IPCC, WCRP, GCOS, GTOS and GOOS) in agreement with relevant contributing sponsors (IOC of UNESCO, ICSU, UNEP, FAO). WMO is also a strategic partner on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), in particular with FAO and WFP on food security, ILO and WHO for social protection and health, and UNEP for the green economy. Within most national governments, the NMHSs are the authoritative agencies on the scientific aspects of weather and climate information and impacts and deliver the official forecasts and warnings to the government and the public on both extreme weather and climate events, many times in partnership with national civil protection and hazard response agencies. In many countries the NMHSs are also responsible for services related to hydrology and water resources and their influence on sectors such as agriculture and air and marine transportation. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 20 The three Key Outcomes and the associated key performance indicators under ER 7 address the need to enhance cooperation and partnerships with national and international institutions to achieve the shared objectives. The scientific and technical programmes contributing to the achievement of this ER include the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, World Climate Programme (WCP) including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Applications of Meteorology Programme (AMP), Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP), Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWRP), Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) and Technical Cooperation Programme (TCOP). Key Outcomes KO 7.1: WMO leadership and contribution in relevant UN system and other international partners’ initiatives and programmes is improved Key Performance Indicators • Reports of WMO and its cosponsored programmes to international conventions, particularly the UNFCCC, UNCCD, and UNCBD, and enhanced interaction with their SBSTAs and COP processes • UN and other international organizations reports quoting WMO and co-sponsored reports, assessments, bulletins and other authoritative outputs • Active strategic partnerships with UN and other international organizations supporting priority activities Contributing Programmes World Weather Watch Programme World Climate Programme Hydrology and Water Resources Programme Executive Management Information and Public Affairs Programme Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Applications of Meteorology Programme Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Hydrology and Water Resources Programme KO 7.2 Participation of NMHSs in relevant national and regional partnerships are enhanced • KO 7.3 Public, decisionmakers and other stakeholders are increasingly aware of key WMO and NMHSs issues, activities and priorities though enhanced communication • • • • Number of NMHSs having active partnerships at national and regional levels Financial support mobilized for development projects, e.g., from governments, donor partners and regional donors Uptake of WMO reports, bulletins and other provisions; number of website visitors and ranking of WMO Website Percentage of target audiences indicating utilization of WMO materials and increased awareness NMHSs trained in communication Regional Programme Information and Public Affairs Programme Strategic Thrust 5 : Strengthening good governance An organization’s resource limitations and sub-optimum alignment with its objectives are fundamental constraints on the pace—and ultimately—the success of every Strategic Plan. Internally, process and management efficiencies can help mitigate resource limitations and can expedite progress towards strategic targets by improving alignment with organizational priorities. Good governance promotes open and transparent processes, efficient and effective use of resources and equitable treatment of all parties. Explicit efficiency goals are needed to accelerate the pace of improvements within currently achievable resources. This strategic thrust aims to improve management by: • Promoting open and transparent business processes, efficient and effective use of resources and equitable treatment of all parties; EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 21 • • • • Enhancing the efficiency of the WMO Secretariat; Ensuring the integrity of WMO management systems, including information technology; Strengthen the results-based management systems and practices and the connection of the programmes and budget to its strategic initiatives, and Affirming the Organization’s effectiveness by conducting a comprehensive review of its structure, programmes and priorities and implementing the findings. Strategic Thrust 5 has one Expected Result (ER 8) together with the three key outcomes and associated performance indicators. ER 8: An effective and efficient Organization The effectiveness and efficiency of an organization has a strong influence on the achievement of results. Given the difficult fiscal environment and the level of management and financial oversight by the Executive Council and others, a management priority exists for improving the efficiency, effectiveness and transparency of the programmatic and financial management of the Organization. This will include developing a visionary Strategic Plan, a clear and effective WMO Operating Plan and an efficient and transparent Results-based Budget for the financial period 2012–2015 together with a monitoring and evaluation system. The WMO support services provide valuable expertise, advice and services in the planning, organization of meetings, conferences and other related activities. These services are a key factor in the efficient functioning of the constituent bodies. Specific functions include, inter alia, translation, interpretation, and organizational activities, essential in the conduct of meetings and conferences and a range of services essential in producing attractive, readable and accurate documentation, publications and other communication materials on all aspects of WMO’s activities. The pProgrammes contributing to this ER include PSS, EM and Overall Coordination, and PSS (which include LSP and CCFM). The three Key Outcomes and the associated key performance indicators under ER 8 address the need to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Organization. Key Outcomes KO 8.1: Effective and efficient WMO Congress and Executive Council KO 8.2: Effective and efficient WMO Secretariat Key Performance Indicators • • • • • • • KO 8.3: Effective and efficient constituent bodies (RAs and TCs) • • • Member satisfaction with documentation for Cg, EC and its working groups Member satisfaction with supporting services for Cg and EC (interpretation, conferences services and facilities) Reduction in the cost of sessions Timely and cost effective completion of management objectives, and oversight recommendations for improved business effectiveness, e.g. from External Auditor and EC subsidiary bodies Unqualified audits and effective internal controls Cost-effective fulfilment of requirements for linguistic and publishing services Cost-effective fulfilment of requirements for support services including procurement, travel, building management and mailing Member satisfaction with constituent body documentation Member satisfaction with constituent body supporting services (interpretation, conferences services and facilities) Reduction in the cost of constituent body sessions Contributing Programmes Policy Making Organs (PMO) Programme Support Services (PSS) Linguistic Services and Publishing (LSP) Conferences, Contracts and Facilities Management (CCFM) Executive Management Overall Coordination Executive Management Programme Support Services EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 22 WMO OPERATING PLAN The WMO Operating Plan translates the Strategic Thrusts, Expected Results and Key Outcomes described in the Strategic Plan into specific programme activities and projects, which are needed to address the global societal needs and achieve the Expected Results. The WMO Operating Plan is comprehensive in that it distinguishes the contribution of WMO Members, technical commissions, regional associations and the Secretariat. Starting with the Key Outcomes, it specifies the deliverables, programme activities and performance metrics to assess progress in achievement of the Expected Results. It encompasses activities of the eight WMO Technical Commissions (Commission for Basic Systems (CBS), Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO), Commission for Hydrology (CHy), Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM), Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM), Commission for Climatology (CCl), and Joint WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)), the six WMO Regional Associations (RA I (Africa), RA II (Asia), RA III (South America), RA IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean), RA V (South-West Pacific) and RA VI (Europe)) and the EC working groups, panels and committees. It forms the basis for resource allocation and WMO Monitoring and Evaluation. RESULTS-BASED BUDGET (RBB) Results-based Budget (RBB) identifies specific programme activities, initiatives, and the resources that the Secretariat, working with regional associations, technical commissions and the EC working groups, panels and committees, requires to implement to achieve the Key Outcomes and Expected Results. The end result is a results-based budget containing the following items: • A logical framework for informed budgetary decision-making, which provides the Expected Results, deliverables, programme activities and performance indicators, together with the required resources; • Resource justification by results, which is designed to optimize the use of resources and improve the Secretariat’s responsiveness to meet Members’ needs; • Incorporation into the budgetary decision-making process of performance measures gauging progress towards key performance targets against allocated resources. The RBB is approved by the Congress. MONITORING AND EVALUATION The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are tools to measure the performance of the Organization in the implementation of its Strategic Plan. Monitoring and evaluation also contribute to identifying good practices and lessons learned with respect to implementation as well as policy, strategy and programmatic design that will inform on the next phase of strategic planning. They provide information for ensuring the continuing effectiveness and relevance of the WMO Programmes. The evaluation results are important inputs to the strategic planning process and are used to adjust strategic direction and priorities, if required. Whereas monitoring is an ongoing function, annual evaluations are conducted and results are reported to the constituent bodies of WMO, in particular the Executive Council. The M&E procedures and practices are defined in the WMO Monitoring and Evaluation System. Monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the WMO Strategic Plan through the WMO Operating Plan and RBB is the joint responsibility of WMO constituent bodies, Members and the Secretariat. EC-LXII/Rep. 7.2(1), APPENDIX B, p. 23 CONCLUSION Significant progress in improving the quality, timeliness and utility of weather, climate, water and related environmental predictions and assessments has resulted from the cooperation of all nations in sharing observations of the Earth system from the local to the global scale, coupled with advances in data assimilation techniques and numerical models. This interdependence of all Members of WMO is the principal raison d’être for the establishment of WMO, since WMO provides an effective forum for establishing observational and data quality standards, for promoting the exchange of data and the transfer of technology, and for sharing knowledge related to research, products and services. Despite these improvements, more communities are increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards, while national economies are becoming more sensitive to the climate variability and change as evidenced by the greater frequency and intensity of climate extreme events. The full benefit from continuing scientific and technological progress is yet to be realized. WMO is focusing its strategic direction for the period 2012-2015 on five Strategic Thrusts that address the Global Societal Needs. Its Strategic Plan under-scores the importance of improving the interaction between providers and users of weather, climate, water and related environmental products and services. Within the Strategic Thrusts and eight Expected Results are five priority areas: • • • • • Global Framework for Climate Services; Aviation meteorological services; Capacity Building for the developing and least developed countries; Implementation of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS); and Disaster Risk Reduction. Advancing these priorities offers great potential for improving the weather, climate, water and related environmental products and services offered by the NMHSs, for enhancing WMO and its Members contribution to global initiatives, and for strengthening the capacities and involvement of all Members within their countries and in regional and global activities, especially those in developing and least developed countries. The Plan emphasizes capacity-building and partnerships as an effective way to optimize resources to achieve internationally agreed development goals and to reduce the risks to development from natural disasters and climate change. Finally the Organization will focus on efficient management and good governance to achieve its objectives. This Strategic Plan provides a clear way forward for the Organization to address the critical global societal needs, agreed upon by Members. More information about WMO and its strategic planning process is available on its Website: www.wmo.int _________