Roanoke Brownfield Corridors: Mapping and Analyzing Potential Brownfield Sites William D. Drake Urban Affairs and Planning Program Virginia Tech Major Paper for the Masters Degree in Urban and Regional Planning 1 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ...............................................................................................................2 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................3 List of Tables............................................................................................................................4 List of Figures (Maps) .............................................................................................................4 Acknowledgement ....................................................................................................................5 Disclaimer................................................................................................................................6 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................7 I. BACKGROUND .........................................................................................................................9 II. UNDERSTANDING BROWNFIELDS .................................................................................10 DEFINING BROWNFIELDS ...........................................................................................................10 FEDERAL BROWNFIELD POLICIES ..............................................................................................13 VIRGINIA BROWNFIELD POLICIES ..............................................................................................15 ROANOKE’S BROWNFIELD SITUATION .......................................................................................16 III. METHODS .............................................................................................................................21 BROWNFIELD IDENTIFICATION ISSUES .......................................................................................21 IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL BROWNFIELDS IN ROANOKE .............................................................25 IV. BROWNFIELD CORRIDOR ANALYSIS..........................................................................31 EASTERN ROANOKE RIVER – (ROANOKE RIVER CORRIDOR) ....................................................31 CENTRAL ROANOKE RIVER – (ROANOKE RIVER CORRIDOR)....................................................34 HOLLINS ROAD ...........................................................................................................................40 STATESMAN ................................................................................................................................43 WEST END – (RAIL CORRIDOR)..................................................................................................49 CAMPBELL AVENUE – (RAIL CORRIDOR)...................................................................................52 V. BROWNFIELD IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUE .............................58 REGRESSION MODEL ..................................................................................................................59 MODEL INTERPRETATION ...........................................................................................................61 VI. CONCLUSIONS.....................................................................................................................63 REFERENCE................................................................................................................................67 2 Abstract Background: In the “City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan,” The City of Roanoke has identified nine brownfield corridors and established corridor-specific redevelopment opportunities. The plan does not identify specific brownfield properties and the city has not completed a brownfield inventory. The process of identifying potential brownfield sites and using a regression model to explain their negative effect on residential property values is explained here. Results: Inventory results were cataloged using ArcGIS. Maps of each corridor were produced. 263 potential brownfield sites were identified. The sites were composed of 407 acres. An additional 219 parcels with non-functioning structures were also identified. A regression model was used to measure the effect the potential brownfield sites have on residential property values. The model found statistically significant results concerning the negative effect potential brownfields have on residential property values. 3 List of Tables Table 1: Brownfield Scenarios Table 2: Brownfield Initiatives from Roanoke’s Comprehensive Plan, Vision 2001-2010 Table 3: Roanoke Potential Brownfield Regression Results List of Figures (Maps) Figure 1. Roanoke Brownfield Corridors. Figure 2. Eastern Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor. Figure 3. Central Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor. Figure 4. Western Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor. Figure 5. Hollins Road and Williamson Road Brownfield Corridors. Figure 6. Statesman Brownfield Corridor. Figure 7. Shenandoah Avenue Brownfield Corridor. Figure 8. West End Brownfield Corridor. Figure 9. Campbell Avenue Brownfield Corridor. Figure 10. Potential Brownfields – All Corridors. 4 Acknowledgement The Roanoke Planning, Building, and Development Department has been extremely helpful in the development of this project. Mr. Shaw and Mr. Fitzpatrick have made data and documents readily available in a timely manner and have provided thoughtful input and suggestions. Thanks to Thomas Sheffer for his help during the West End Corridor field assessment. Many thanks are due to Dr. Zhang for his assistance on all aspects of this paper, as well as Dr. Zahm and Dr. Randolph for their feedback and editing. 5 Disclaimer It is imperative to note the findings in this paper do not claim any endorsement by Mr. Shaw, Mr. Fitzpatrick, or any other employee at the Roanoke City Planning, Building, and Development Department. It is serious business to designate privately held property as a brownfield. The properties identified as potential brownfields by this project carry no legal authority and have not been approved by the Roanoke City Planning, Building, and Development Department. No site assessments have taken place to confirm the actual presence of contamination on any parcel. This list of potential brownfields remains the sole property of the author and is not intended for public dispersal. 6 Introduction In December of 2007, the City of Roanoke adopted a “City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan.” The plan identifies nine distinct brownfield corridors within the city and provides a description of the land uses, neighborhood plan policies, and potential redevelopment opportunities for each brownfield corridor. Within the plan, however, actual or likely brownfield sites are not identified. The City of Roanoke has not developed a comprehensive brownfield inventory. The focus of this paper is to identify potential brownfield properties within the brownfield corridors in the City of Roanoke. This paper will present the findings of the initial inventory of potential brownfields. This will include an analysis related to the goals and redevelopment priorities found in the brownfield and neighborhood-level plans to determine how well conditions on the ground match the policies contained in the CityWide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan. Additionally, a regression model has been developed to quantitatively test the effect potential brownfield properties have on residential property values. During meetings with members of the Roanoke City Planning, Building, and Development Department, it was agreed this type of model could be a useful tool to demonstrate to the public and government officials the negative impacts created by brownfield properties, and thus, lend itself in the argument for appropriate brownfield redevelopment. The first section of this paper will begin with the background of the project. The second section provides a general overview of brownfields and brownfield redevelopment policy at the federal and state levels of government. Virginia brownfield 7 policy closely shadows federal regulations. This overview of brownfield policy will transition into a discussion about Roanoke’s brownfield situation and the context/purpose of the brownfield redevelopment plan. The third section of this paper will describe the methods and logic behind the initial inventory of potential brownfields. This will include common strategies from the literature, as well as a description of the author’s own methods and justifications for parcel selection. The fourth section will present the results of the potential brownfield inventory. This includes an appended maps package of all nine brownfield corridors. Maps of each corridor will accompany an analysis describing how the brownfield plan and neighborhood plans within each brownfield corridor correspond to the actual locations of potential brownfields. This section will also look at the spatial distribution of the identified potential brownfields as a whole group. This will provide the benefit of viewing the situation as a whole, instead of from the perspective of distinct corridors. The fifth section will introduce a multiple regression model as a complement to the corridor-specific analysis. During meetings with members of the Roanoke City Planning, Building, and Development Department, the development of a regression model to explain the effect of brownfield proximity on property values was discussed as a potentially beneficial tool. This section will explain the significance of a regression model. The specific regression model developed for this project will be presented, along with the results. 8 I. Background In the spring of 2009, Virginia Tech graduate students within the Urban and Regional Planning program took an introductory level GIS course. The major class project consisted of identifying potential brownfield sites within the Shenandoah Avenue brownfield corridor. Prior to beginning the fieldwork, the class met with several planners with the City of Roanoke. Members of the Planning, Building, and Development Department introduced the brownfield plan and discussed the issues and opportunities related to brownfield redevelopment. The students divided the Shenandoah Avenue brownfield corridor into three sections roughly equal by parcel count. Each group created maps of the brownfield sites they identified and produced reports detailing appropriate suggestions for redevelopment. The maps and recommendations were presented at the VT-Roanoke Collaborative Symposium in May 2009. In a follow-up meeting after the course concluded, Ian Shaw, a Senior Planner with the City of Roanoke, indicated interest in continuing the process of identifying potential brownfield sites within the eight remaining brownfield corridors. Fieldwork took place during the summer and fall of 2009. Potential brownfield sites were identified by visual assessment. The identified parcels were cataloged and mapped using ArcGIS software. Maps of the identified potential brownfield sites for each corridor were presented to Ian Shaw and B.T. Fitzpatrick, City Planner II, during a meeting in January 2010. The meeting included a discussion on how this preliminary inventory and a major paper on the subject could best serve the City of Roanoke. The planners felt the inventory on its own would serve as a valuable tool in the continual process of identifying the brownfields in Roanoke. Similar to the analysis performed by the graduate class on Shenandoah Avenue, a cross-referencing of the goals and priorities listed in the 9 brownfield and neighborhood plans could be matched up with the location of the identified potential brownfields. Mr. Shaw and Mr. Fitzpatrick also expressed interest in a regression model to demonstrate the negative impact the identified potential brownfield sites have on nearby residential property values. II. Understanding Brownfields Defining Brownfields According to the official definition of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), brownfields are real property, the expansion, redevelopment, or reuse of which may be complicated by the presence or potential presence of a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant. The brownfield site definition is legally defined in Public Law 107-118 (H.R. 2869) "Small Business Liability Relief and Brownfields Revitalization Act," signed into law January 11, 2002.1 The EPA estimates there are roughly 450,000 brownfields sites in the United States.2 Parcels with a history of commercial or industrial activity are common brownfield candidates. Other typical brownfields include sites of former gas stations, dry cleaners, and parcels adjacent to or containing railway activity. The legal definition of a brownfield is concise, and yet open to a relatively large degree of interpretation. The definition is composed of two clauses. The first clause addresses complications prohibiting reuse. It is important to note complications from reuse are not required by the brownfield definition. If reuse complications were a requirement, the definition would be alternatively worded “…the reuse of which shall be 1 U.S. EPA. Brownfields and Land Revitalization-Brownfields Definition. NOV 13, 2009. <http://www.epa.gov/brownfields/overview/glossary.htm> 2 U.S. EPA. Brownfields and Land Revitalization-About Brownfields. NOV 16, 2009. <http://www.epa.gov/brownfields/about.htm> 10 complicated…” As it is written, it is only suggested that reuse, “…may have been complicated...” The second clause relates the reuse complications to actual or potential environmental contamination. Actual contamination is not required, only the existence of potential contamination. Since reuse complications and actual contamination are not requirements, the definitional brownfield includes several combinations of conditions. The matrix bellow summarizes the six possible scenarios. Table 1. Brownfield Scenarios Meeting the Legal Brownfield Definition Contaminant Present Potential for Contamination (Actually Contaminated) Potential for Contamination (Not Contaminated) Reuse Complicated 1. Reuse Complicated, Contaminated 2. Reuse Complicated, Contaminated 3. Reuse Complicated, Not Contaminated Reuse not Complicated 4. Reuse not complicated, Contaminated 5. Reuse not complicated, Contaminated 6. Reuse not complicated, Not contaminated Table 1 illustrates the varying scenarios considered brownfields under the legal definition. This is a result of the flexibility allowed in both clauses of the definition. As the Virginia DEQ observes, the definition is purposely broad. The intent is to capture as many properties as possible under the definition.3 The purpose of this table is to highlight the fact that properties are not required to have contamination to be a brownfield. Intuitively, if reuse is not complicated, regardless of contaminant issues, redevelopment and brownfield labeling becomes something of a non-issue. Merely requiring potential contamination, instead of requiring proof of actual contamination, is a reflection of the high cost of environmental assessment. On-site environmental testing is 3 VA Department of Environmental Quality. (2004). Brownfields Manuel. 5-8. 11 costly and time consuming. Noonan and Vidich report the mean cost in 1992 dollars for Phase 1 and Phase 2 Environmental Site Assessment tests to be $4,900 and $18,000, respectively.4 It would be impractical to require the confirmation of environmental contamination before a property could be labeled as a brownfield. Many property owners would be unable to financially afford the process. For this reason, the definition of what can be considered a brownfield is broad. The Federal Brownfield Act of 2002 added some specific clarifications to the brownfield definition. Abandoned gas stations, mine-scarred lands, sites subject to RCRA, solid waste regulations, and those listed under the Leaking Underground Storage Tank Program (LUST) can be considered brownfields. There are several specific exclusions to the brownfield definition. Properties currently undergoing remediation or having plans for remediation under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or more commonly, “Superfund”) are not considered brownfields. Enacted in 1980, the act gives the Federal government wide authority to respond to releases and threatened releases of hazardous substances.5 A property is also not considered a brownfield if it is on the National Priorities List (NPL). This list identifies a subset of parcels within the EPA’s Superfund program. Finally, a property subject to a judge, court, or administrative order entered into consent under state or federal administrative law cannot be considered a brownfield.6 4 Noonan, Frank and Charles Vidich. 1992. Decision Analysis for Utilizing Hazardous Waste Site Assessments in Real Estate Acquisition. Risk Analysis 12(2). 248. 5 EPA-CERCLA Overview. June 2009. <http://www.epa.gov/superfund/policy/cercla.htm> 6 Ibid, 16. 12 Federal Brownfield Policies The EPA’s Brownfield Program began in 1995. The original program allocated small grants to hundreds of local communities. These initial two-year pilot programs provided funds for communities to identify brownfields and develop strategies to guide the remediation and redevelopment of brownfield properties.7 The success of the initial pilot programs led to the adoption of a formal brownfield law, The Small Business Liability Relief and Brownfields Revitalization Act of 2002. The stated goal of the current Brownfield Program is to “empower states, communities, and other stakeholders in economic redevelopment to work together in a timely manner to prevent, assess, safely clean up, and sustainably reuse brownfields.”8 This is primarily accomplished by providing monetary assistance and legal protection in the form of liability reductions. Four grants offered by the program make up a large portion of the monetary assistance provided by the EPA’s Brownfield Program: 1. Brownfield Assessment Grant 2. Brownfield Revolving Loan Fund Grant 3. Brownfields Job Training Grant 4. Brownfield Cleanup Grant The Brownfield Assessment Grant provides support for inventory, assessment, and brownfield related planning. An entity may receive up to $200,000 for a site assessment, while a coalition can receive up to $1million to assess a minimum of five 7 Bucks County. 2004 Brownfields Inventory and US EPA Brownfields Pilot Summary Report, 2. 8 U.S. EPA. Brownfields and Land Revitalization-About Brownfields. NOV 16, 2009. <http://www.epa.gov/brownfields/about.htm> 13 sites. The Brownfield Revolving Loan Fund Grant provides up to $1 million to public or private borrowers to finance cleanup efforts. The Brownfields Job Training Grant provides up to $200,000 to fund safety and cleanup training programs as well as other economic development activities for residents of affected communities. The Brownfield Cleanup Grant provides up to $200,000 for the cleanup of contaminated sites.9 Uncertainty is a major determinant of private sector brownfield redevelopment. Private developers are less inclined to purchase suspected or actual brownfield properties if they risk inheriting the potentially expensive liability associated with a contaminated property. The 2002 Brownfield Act includes several key provisions intended to alleviate some of the risk associated with purchasing or owning a brownfield. Under the law, three types of brownfield owners are offered some form of liability protection: 1. Contiguous Property Owner 2. Bona fide Prospective Purchaser 3. Innocent Land Owner The Contiguous Property Owner clause protects owners whose property may have been contaminated by adjacent property where known contamination exists. Protection is available if the contiguous property owner is not associated with the interests of the contaminating party. The Bona fide Prospective Property Owner clause protects buyers of brownfields with known contamination, so long as they address the issues in a reasonable and timely manner. The Innocent Land Owner clause offers liability protection to those who purchased a property believing it did not have any contamination. 9 EPA. Brownfields/Revitalization General Brochure-2009. <http://www.epa.gov/brownfields/overview/09brochure.pdf 14 To be eligible for protection under the Innocent Land Owner and Bona Fide Prospective Property Owner clauses, parties are required to have completed the legal process of All Appropriate Inquiry (AAI).10 The EPA requirement for AAI is the completion of a Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessment (ESA). This process identifies most contamination issues and prevents parties from hiding behind the curtain of ignorance. Virginia Brownfield Policies In Virginia, the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) handles brownfield policy. The DEQ’s Brownfield Program provides several tools related to brownfield redevelopment. Many of the tools are enabled in the Brownfield Restoration and Land Renewal Act 11. • Voluntary Remediation Program (VRP) • Statutory Limited Liability • Limited Liability through Director Determination • Brownfield Amnesty Program for Voluntary Disclosure • Voluntary Environmental Assessment Immunity • Civil Charge Mitigation for Self-Disclosed Violations • Comfort Letters The programs and tools offered through the DEQ are designed to encourage selfreporting and self-assessment. Similar to Federal policy, they are intended to ease liability worries for innocent parties in the hopes of spurring redevelopment. Protected 10 Small Business Liability Relief and Brownfields Revitalization Act, H.R. 2869. Sec. 221-223. <http://www.epa.gov/brownfields/laws/hr2869.htm#subtB> 11 VA Code §§ 10.1-1230 through 10.1-1237). 15 parties include those listed under the EPA guidelines, as well as parties who acquire property as an inheritance and have no reason to suspect the presence of contamination. Government entities involuntarily acquiring property are also afforded liability protection.12 Roanoke’s Brownfield Situation Roanoke experienced tremendous growth during the first half of the 20th century. Roanoke became a major railroad transportation hub and many related manufacturing and distribution jobs grew from this economy. This growth completely leveled off in the second half of the century. From 1900-1950, the population grew from 21,495 to 91,921 (+327%). From 1950-2000, the population only increased from 91,921 to 94,911. (+3.25%).13 By 2008, the population was estimated to be 91,977, showing a slight decrease.14 The second half of the century was less favorable to traditional manufacturing sectors. As the economy relied less and less on rail, these related industries disappeared from Roanoke. Economic withdrawal left many of Roanoke’s industrial and manufacturing corridors with underused and abandoned properties. The manufacturing and industrial processes previously taking place on these parcels makes them prime brownfield candidates. Roanoke has created the City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan as a means to take advantage of the brownfield programs outlined above and to encourage redevelopment in these afflicted areas. The City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan 12 VA Department of Environmental Quality, 2004. Brownfields Manuel. 5-8 <http://www.deq.state.va.us/brownfieldweb/> 13 U.S. Census Bureau, Virginia Population of Counties by Decennial Census. <http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/va190090.txt> 14 U.S. Census Bureau. 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Roanoke City, Virginia. 16 identifies nine distinct brownfield corridors within the city. The corridors are situated along traditional areas of commercial and industrial land uses; i.e., near current and past rail lines and along the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek. The corridors are named according to the major road running through them or by their directional relationship to the Roanoke River: Although there are a total of nine brownfield corridors, the City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan identifies only five: Rail Corridor, Roanoke River Corridor, Statesman, Williamson Road, and Hollins Road. This is because the plan groups the Western, Central, and Eastern Roanoke River corridors into a single “Roanoke River Corridor.” West End, Campbell Avenue, and the Shenandoah Avenue corridors are grouped into the larger “Rail Corridor.” This is somewhat confusing because the plan does not provide overall plans, priorities, and redevelopment strategies for the larger grouped Roanoke River and Rail Corridors. Rather, it addresses each sub-corridor individually and generally treats it as a separate entity. To avoid confusion, this paper will always refer to the nine corridors individually. 17 Figure 1: Map of Roanoke Brownfield Corridors 18 Roanoke’s City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan begins by justifying brownfield redevelopment. The city is over 95% built out and most of the remaining land is either located within the flood plain, on steep slopes, or is too fractured to provide the necessary critical mass for large commercial or industrial development projects.15 This leaves two general options for growth and development. Development can either sprawl outward from the city, or growth can be concentrated at higher density within current boundaries by reusing under-functioning and non-functioning properties. There are many supportive arguments for the reuse of centrally located property. Infrastructure is already in place, so less cost is incurred building new roads, water lines and sewer capacity. Vehicular miles traveled (VMT) are reduced. Roanoke is part of a nonattainment area for the 8-hour ozone standards established by the Clean Air Act. Reducing VMT will help improve air quality in the Roanoke Valley. Additionally, reusing property retains tax revenues from new development within the city and helps support existing neighborhoods and communities.16 The City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan outlines three basic land use goals/approaches for brownfield redevelopment:17 1. Convert underused industrial property along the Roanoke River to a green corridor with a supporting mix of commercial and residential uses 15 City of Roanoke, Virginia. December 20, 2007. City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, iii. 16 Michael Greenberg et al. 2001. Brownfield Redevelopment as a Smart Growth Option in the United States. Environmentalist, 21(2). 129-143. 17 Roanoke Brownfield Plan, iii 19 2. Revitalize brownfield sites in or immediately adjacent to residential neighborhoods as neighborhood-scale commercial operations that reinforce Village Centers or provide opportunities for technology and entrepreneurial business and to create opportunities for clusters and other mixed development. 3. Reinforce industrial corridors by reusing property for new operations for more efficient land use and to strengthen the industrial base of the city. With these three general goals in mind, the City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan presents development opportunities and priorities for each of the corridors. The analysis section of this paper will revisit these corridor-specific opportunities and will evaluate them using the potential brownfields identified during the inventory. The city’s comprehensive plan is the dominant document to guiding planning policy. The City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan draws its guidance from several specific initiatives from within Roanoke’s Comprehensive Plan, Vision 2001-2010: From the comprehensive plan, five specific initiatives and their relevancy to brownfields are provided, as shown in Table 2:18 Table 2. Brownfield Initiatives from Roanoke’s Comprehensive Plan, Vision 2001-2010 Initiative from Comprehensive Plan Brownfield Program Relevance Redevelop Underused Commercial and Industrial Sites Most such properties by definition are brownfields. Invest in Critical Amenities Brownfield redevelopment along river allows for public greenway and park investment, while properties proximate to downtown leverage private investment to support cultural events. Shifting Gears – New Economic Initiatives Redeveloped spaces become attractive locations for new businesses. 18 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 2. 20 Getting Wired Reuse of old buildings proximate to downtown or the river attracts tech companies, who value flexible workspaces with historic character. Village Centers and Housing Clusters Brownfields redeveloped near village centers can support mixed uses within the village centers and surrounding neighborhoods. During the process of creating the City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, the City of Roanoke solicited public input. The Planning, Building, and Development Department held public meetings, forums, and input sessions to receive feedback and ideas from the public regarding the City’s brownfield program and the use of EPA Brownfield Grant Funds. Issues of concern raised by the public and found in the brownfield plan include: • Provide open space and greenways along the Roanoke River corridor. • Evaluate how redevelopment will occur in proximity to rivers and along floodplains • Look for opportunities across city, including scattered gas stations • Redevelopment should include mixed-uses • Develop an inventory of brownfield sites/redevelopment opportunities • Use available funds based on long-term sustainable planning principles.19 III. Methods Brownfield Identification Issues It is easy to define a brownfield on paper, but difficult to identify them in the field. Several strategies are available and the most comprehensive inventory will likely employ 19 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 3. 21 a combination of efforts. The EPA has created a suggested methodology for creating an inventory of petroleum brownfields. This report provides specifics on a certain type of brownfield, but the overall strategies are applicable to building a regular brownfield inventory: • Self-Reporting • Local Knowledge • Property Records • Environmental Conditions • Visual Surveys20 Self-reporting relies on the current or past property owner to notify concerned parties of his property’s likely brownfield status. This is an appealing strategy because it requires little effort from those conducting the inventory. Mitigation relief is possible for self-reporting violators as an attempt to encourage this inventory strategy because it requires few resources from the concerned government entity. Surveying local knowledge can include both governmental staff and local community members. After specific property owners, these two groups are the most familiar with conditions on the ground. Members of the planning staff, real estate department, the EDA, as well as utility workers and regular town employees working out in the field are going to have first-hand knowledge about conditions on the ground. Local residents also have a big role to play. They live near and next to parcels of concern. They may walk their dogs on the sidewalk or their children might play in the area. Local knowledge can provide valuable leads and information about suspected properties during 20 EPA, Petroleum Brownfields: Developing Inventories. 510-R-09-002. May 2009. 1415. 22 a brownfield inventory. A survey of property records is an important part of a brownfield inventory. Old sales records may contain notes or clues about specific property concerns. Using old land use maps and business directories can identify likely areas of interest.21 Parcels that were the site of polluting manufacturing activities fifty years ago may now have homes or sit empty. The threat of contamination may not be evident on such parcels. Current land use maps would not call attention to these parcels of concern. Constructing a complete historical record, especially if land use patterns have significantly shifted over time, is an important part of developing a comprehensive brownfield inventory. It is possible to estimate contamination probabilities using past and present land use data. Noonan and Vidich created a probability table based on land use activity. Different land use activities carry varying rates of contamination risk. An auto salvage yard has a 95% probability of prior contamination, while a dry cleaner has a 74% probability of prior contamination.22 It is also important to account for environmental conditions. The extent and spread of contamination will depend on many factors, including topography, soil composition, and impervious surface coverage. A single property may be the source of hazardous contamination, and depending on these and other factors, the contamination may have spread to nearby properties. As a simple example, properties downhill of a known polluter can be suspected to contain contamination. Using land use history and environmental conditions, it is possible to identifying properties at an increased risk for 21 Leigh and Coffin. 2005. Modeling the Relationship Among Brownfields, Property Values, and Community Revitalization. Housing Policy Debate. 16(2). 269. 22 Noonan and Vidich, 248. 23 contamination. Visual surveys and inspections are an important component of building a brownfield inventory. Visual surveys are reliant on visual clues. Clues include abandoned and/or deteriorating buildings, especially warehouses and other types of commercial and industrial structures. Business signs can also provide clues to past land use. Properties that are poorly maintained and overgrown with vegetation can indicate depressed market value and neglect. Other obvious and common clues include the presence of poorly maintained storage tanks, debris piles, junked cars and other materials, especially process-oriented equipment showing signs of disrepair, decay, and abandonment. Visual inspection can be a useful tool, but it is subjective. The process of identifying potentially contaminated properties where redevelopment may be an issue is inherently subjective. Imagine a three-acre parcel with forty rusted cars sitting among weeds. They are likely leaking gasoline, engine oil, coolant and anti-freeze into the soil. One would likely identify this as a potential brownfield. But what if there is only one car? Is it still a brownfield? If the individual conducting the survey does not consider it a brownfield, how many cars would there need to be before it met the brownfield eye-test? And furthermore, if the eye-test has a threshold of twelve leaking cars, is there truly much of a difference between the parcel with twelve leaking cars and the parcel with eleven leaking cars? Assuming the cars leak evenly, there is a negligible difference between the two, from a cleanup, and ultimately redevelopment perspective. This hypothetical case illustrates the danger applying subjective analysis in an attempt to arrive at objective conclusions. The brownfield definition only allows for a parcel to either be a brownfield, or not be a brownfield. In reality, properties range in 24 both the amount of real or potential contamination and the extent to which reuse is complicated. For the purposes of identifying potential brownfields, a threshold will inevitably be established. The hypothetical example illustrates how thresholds create a false sense of accuracy. To some degree, this problem will not go away. Employing a combination of the strategies discussed above is the best way to ensure a comprehensive inventory of potential brownfields. By combining strategies and cross-referencing their findings, areas of concern are likely to become evident. Identifying Potential Brownfields in Roanoke The preliminary inventory for the Roanoke brownfield corridors primarily consisted of visual surveys. Due to limited resources, manpower, and time, a visual survey was the best fit for this project. A more comprehensive inventory will employ some or all of the other strategies detailed above. This paper does not claim to have identified all of the brownfields within the nine corridors, nor does it assume the identified sites are certifiably brownfields. Rather, the parcels identified as potential brownfield represent potential brownfields as determined by the author during visual surveys. Distinguishing property boundaries is the most difficult aspect of this type of fieldwork. For each brownfield corridor, aerial photography with overlaid parcel lines was used during the surveys to provide orientation and reference points. This ensured that parcels were accurately identified and cataloged. Each corridor required 10-20 aerials to get 100% coverage at a usable level of detail. Having the aerials made it easy to differentiate between separate parcels. Before arriving to the field, Google Earth and the city of Roanoke’s online ArcViewer were used to become familiar with the corridors and 25 identify likely areas of interest. The surveys were conducted on foot and by vehicle. Visual inspection was based on the visual clues mentioned earlier. For mapping and analysis purposes, it is important to map parcel land use and functionality. This information is available from Roanoke’s GIS real estate database. Whereas zoning describes the allowable use for a property, current land use describes the current use of that property. These two are not always the same. Due to the hierarchical nature of traditional zoning codes, a parcel zoned for industrial use could have singlefamily homes on it. During the visual survey, parcels with non-functioning structures were also identified. For this inventory, vacant is used to describe a parcel that is generally void of development, or at the most, a parking lot. Non-functioning describes parcels that contain empty structures. These could be abandoned structures as well as buildings for lease without current occupants. Both types indicate opportunities for reuse, although non-functioning properties, as long as the structure can be salvaged, likely require fewer resources to reuse. During the inventory, properties marked as potential brownfields either contained a structure, which was functioning or not, or they were void of development (vacant). To be identified as a potential brownfield, vacant parcels needed to have visible signs of potential contamination. A B 26 C The three pictures above provide good examples of the range of conditions for vacant properties. Picture A is an undeveloped, vacant property. Although it is located near other potential brownfields and other industrial land uses, there are no visually clues indicating a potential contamination issue. This property was marked as vacant only. Picture C, on the far right, was marked as a brownfield. The parcel contains various rusted tanks, containers, and mechanical equipment, all kept in poor condition. This is a good representative example of the type of vacant properties identified as potential brownfields during this inventory. Picture B represents the uncertain gray zone. There are two decaying vehicles on the property. A large debris pile is also visible. The debris appears to be dirt, concrete, and other types of vegetative material. Due to the apparent make-up of the debris and its relatively small size, this parcel would not be considered a brownfield by this inventory. It is worth noting there are many parcels in the brownfield corridors similar to this one. These parcels show signs of neglect and underuse, but do not pose an obvious, high contamination risk. It may be in Roanoke’s interest to include these types of properties as potential brownfields. Properties with structures can also be considered brownfields. Generally, an empty commercial or industrial building on its own was not enough to merit the brownfield designation. 27 The two parcels pictured above are good representations of the type of parcels with structures labeled as brownfields. The parcel on the left has little to no functionality. There are large piles of uncovered material, along with several large tanks in poor condition. The property on the right displays less obvious contamination risks, but there are several barrels and debris piles visible in the background. It is also non-functioning and in terrible condition. This combination of factors, along with being contiguous to the railroad, is why this property was marked as a potential brownfield. The building above was not marked as a brownfield. This building does show some signs of neglect and disrepair, but it is generally habitable and in working condition. There are no obvious signs of contamination visible from the outside and the previous use cannot be determined from any signage or equipment located outside. This building is 28 non-functioning, but it is not labeled a brownfield by this preliminary inventory. Roanoke properties on the National Priorities List (NPL) were checked to make certain a property identified during the visual survey that was on the NPL was not recorded as a potential brownfield since brownfield law exclude sites on the NPL from being considered brownfields. No properties on the NPL list as of February 2010 were identified during the inventory. The Virginia DEQ maintains a list of known brownfield properties in the state. No properties were identified from this list. This inventory represents a portion of all the potential brownfield within the Roanoke corridors. Moving forward, this inventory has the potential to be expanded or refined. The visual survey methods employed tend to identify the worst-of-the-worst. An empty warehouse was not considered a brownfield. An empty warehouse with the roof rusted off and oil drums scattered around the side was marked as a potential brownfield. It is possible that in both warehouses hazardous chemicals are not securely stored and both properties pose a contamination risk. Implementing past land use analysis would help identify the seemingly benign warehouse as a brownfield. With this knowledge, two immediate questions arise. The first question is: are the brownfields spotted during visual surveys actually brownfields? As has been discussed, this is to some degree a subjective decision. In order to improve transparency and provide future efforts with a good base resource, each property identified as a potential brownfield has been photographed. The second question is: does it matter if all of the brownfields have not been identified? The answer is both yes and no. It is always a good idea to base decisions and analysis on the most complete data set. The effort to classify brownfields is a mix of 29 politics, market conditions, and development priorities. Depending on these factors, the parcels with candidacy for brownfield identification can greatly fluctuate. Therefore, being able to identify all brownfields is a relative accomplishment and has low applicable value.23 The visually identified brownfields provide a useful starting place. The City of Roanoke has already reduced the need for an overarching comprehensive inventory by creating the brownfield corridors. This policy decision has effectively established the areas of greatest concern, based upon past land use, current conditions, and anticipated future needs. Within the confines of these corridors, brownfield redevelopment priorities and neighborhood plans further magnify and direct the context of brownfield redevelopment. Even if all of the brownfields have not been identified, the ones that have paint a fairly clear picture of trouble spots. Additionally, the lack of market-driven redevelopment indicates fundamental problems. Government is providing funds and other legal incentives because it places high value in the benefits derived from remediating the environmental contamination and reusing the property. The failure of the private market to capture this positive valuation has led to market failure and the underuse of these properties. Until the private market can be fully incentivized to undertake cleanup and reuse, government will continue to be the primary party involved and thus funding will always be in short supply. The City of Roanoke will not receive enough money to fix every single brownfield property in the foreseeable future. Therefore, it must make tactical decisions based on a number of 23 Chilton, Kenneth. Peter Schwarz and Kenneth Godwin. 2002 Final Report Verifying the Social, Environmental and Economic Promise of Brownfield Programs. EPA BFRES 04-02. 5-9. 30 factors, including cost, cleanup requirements, willing landowners, willing developers, and market conditions to decide which brownfields to target for reuse. Therefore, it does not necessarily need to identify every brownfield at this stage of the process. Even though it is incomplete, these visually identified brownfields can form the basis of a general inventory to further refine the decision making process. IV. Brownfield Corridor Analysis The following sections will describe the potential brownfields identified in each brownfield corridor. Each description will specify the number of potential brownfield parcels identified and their total combined acreage. Each section will relate the land use goals and redevelopment priorities contained within the brownfield and neighborhood plans to the actual brownfield conditions as determined by the brownfield assessment. Eastern Roanoke River – (Roanoke River Corridor) The Eastern Roanoke River Corridor contains seven parcels identified as potential brownfields and four non-functioning commercial parcels. The identified brownfield parcels total 140 acres. This includes parcels of 68, 50, and 13 acres. The 68-acre parcel was formerly owned and operated by American Viscose. It was at one time the largest rayon textile mill in the world. The mill was closed in the 1950’s but the property remains in use today as the Roanoke Industrial Center. Although this area has been identified as a potential brownfield, much of the property is still in use. This corridor is a low priority for redevelopment, according to the brownfield plan. 24 The greenway is primarily complete through the south side of the corridor and much of the land has active industrial uses. However, as the brownfield plan notes, if the demand for industrial space 24 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 18-20. 31 continues to decline, residential and mixed commercial uses could increase redevelopment pressures. 32 Figure 2: Map of Eastern Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor. 33 Central Roanoke River – (Roanoke River Corridor) 41 parcels in the Central Roanoke River Corridor were identified as potential brownfields. In total, these properties comprise 47 acres. 36 non-functioning properties were identified. This included six residential properties and eight commercial properties not indentified as potential brownfields. The identified potential brownfields are clustered into two groups. The first group contains 19 acres of potential brownfields in the eastern portion of the corridor. This group of potential brownfields is within the South Jefferson Redevelopment Area (SJRA). The SJRA is playing an important role in Roanoke’s economic development efforts. This area includes the Riverside Center for Research and Technology, the Carilion Biomedical Institute, Carilion Clinic, and the Virginia Tech medical school. This area has and will continue to receive high redevelopment priority. The potential brownfields identified are located along the railroad tracks and reside entirely within the 100-year flood plain. Due to the redevelopment efforts and resources being directed at this area, this area will likely remain a top redevelopment priority. The redevelopment plan identifies continual redevelopment opportunities moving north up Jefferson Street.25 The western edges of these potential brownfields are situated along Jefferson Street and may provide reuse opportunities in the future as the SJRA continues to spur development. The second group of potential brownfields comprises a total of 28 acres. These properties are located to the north of Memorial St. Bridge and several public parks. Almost all of these potential brownfields also reside within the 100-year floodplain. A 25 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 21-22. 34 significant amount of open and recreation space extends west of the potential brownfields along the Roanoke River. These areas are the focus of the ongoing Roanoke River Flood Reduction and Greenway Program. Extending greenspace along the river would be one possible scenario for some of the potential brownfields located adjacent to the river. Most of the potential brownfields are located in the southern portion of Mountain View Neighborhood. Although the area is relatively underused, slopes and vegetation provide good buffers from nearby homes. The neighborhood plan suggests infill commercial development with adequate screening and buffers as an appropriate reuse.26 26 City of Roanoke, Virginia. 2003. Hurt Park/Mountain View/West End Neighborhood Plan, 44, 47. 35 Figure 3: Map of Central Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor 36 Western Roanoke River – (Roanoke River Corridor) Eleven parcels were identified as potential brownfields in the Western Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor. Together, these parcels comprise 36.3 acres. This includes several large parcels of 8.6, 7.3, and 6.1 acres. The brownfield redevelopment plan indicates much of the underused property is near the Roanoke River and sits within the 100-flood plain.27 The brownfield assessment reaffirms these findings. All of the identified potential brownfields are located in two masses on the east side of the corridor. The eastern collection of parcels is 27.8 acres and the western collection includes 20.7 acres of land identified as potential brownfield. Also, five non-functioning commercial properties were identified. The future land use map in the Norwich neighborhood plan identifies areas to the west of Bridge Street be used for conservation space. Both of the large brownfield masses identified in this corridor lie just on the western side of Bridge Street. This is a good example of plans matching up well with actual conditions on the ground. The industrial activities within this corridor are generally viable and contribute to the tax base. The brownfield plan reiterates industrial reuse is most appropriate for this area.28 However, for the significant acreage of identified properties that are within the 100-year flood plan or suffer reduced access due to railroad crossings, the potential exists for converting these potential brownfields into greenways and increasing greenway access. 27 28 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 24. Ibid, 25. 37 Figure 4: Map of Western Roanoke River Brownfield Corridor 38 Williamson Road 39 non-functioning parcels were identified. This includes three residential properties and 36 commercial properties. Only three parcels were identified as potential brownfields in the Williamson Road corridor. These parcels total 1.3 acres of land. These findings are generally consistent with the brownfield plan. It notes the corridor does not have a history of industrial use except for some areas near Orange Avenue. The three brownfield properties identified are located at the southern end of the corridor, near Orange Avenue. Although it does not have a history of industrial uses, this area is a brownfield corridor because of the number of under-functioning properties and the redevelopment opportunities they present.29 During the inventory, 48 vacant parcels were identified. These sites are distributed all along the corridor, presenting numerous opportunities for reuse. The plan notes former gas stations, car lots, and dry cleaning operations are present and may present some environmental issues. Some of these sites were likely missed during the inventory due to signage removal. It is difficult to spot the site of an old gas station if the pumps and gas sign are removed. The three potential brownfield parcels are located on the southern end of the corridor, close to Orange Avenue. The parcels are across the street from each other and lay contiguous to several other underutilized properties. To the north, the corridor is bordered on both sides by residential neighborhoods. In the south, where the potential brownfields are located, Orange Avenue, I-581, Williamson Road, and additional commercial/industrial uses form in insulating border on all sides of these properties. This suggests commercial or industrial reuse would not negatively impact nearby residences 29 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 37. 39 because of the buffers already in place. Additionally, the neighborhood plan aims to discourage additional commercial use except where it reinforces existing nodes.30 The identified brownfields are located near an existing node of commercial activity that includes a busy gas station and a strip mall at the corner of Williamson Road and Orange Avenue. In many ways, the Williamson Road Corridor is one long stretch of strip malls. One of the goals in the neighborhood plan is to establish well-defined “nodes” of commercial activity and lessen intensity between these nodes.31 The four identified nodes in the plan are centered on Liberty Road, Oakland School, Breckenridge, and Crossroads. The brownfield inventory identified eight vacant properties within a 300 ft radius of Oakland School. A two-acre vacant parcel is located next to the Breckenridge ball fields. The City owns this parcel and has likely already evaluated its reuse potential. Hollins Road 15 non-functioning commercial properties were identified. Two of these parcels were also marked as potential brownfields. In the Hollins Road Corridor, 16 potential brownfield parcels were identified. These parcels have a combined total of 24.3 acres. Except for one small parcel, all of the identified potential brownfields are either located along the railroad, or they are grouped together in the southeastern tip of the corridor. Six parcels, comprising 10 acres, are located in northern tip of the small arm extending from the base of the corridor at the south. A portion of the parcels sits in the flood plain of Tinker Creek. Eastgate Park is located just to the north of the properties. The future land 30 31 City of Roanoke, Virginia. 2004. Williamson Road Area Plan, 44. City of Roanoke, Virginia. 2005. Hollins/Wildwood Area Plan, 47. 40 use map for the Hollins/Wildwood neighborhood plan designates these parcels for light industrial and light industrial uses.32 Except for one smaller parcel, the rest of the identified potential brownfields are located adjacent to the rail line that runs through the middle of the corridor between Hollins and Plantation Rd. Maximizing commercial and industrial uses within current zoning is a top priority in the Hollins-Wildwood and Williamson Road neighborhood plans. The potential brownfields are located on sites that are currently zones for commercial and industrial uses. These sites are also well positioned for operations seeking rail access. In the middle of the corridor, a large number of vacant parcels were identified. Though not tagged as potential brownfields, the high concentration of vacant properties may be in indication of development complications. Regardless, these numerous properties could potentially offer a range of development opportunities. This collection of properties begins just south of the village center at Hollins Road and Liberty Road. The brownfield plan suggests buffering industrial uses in the effort to strengthen demand for the area’s commercial services and thus, strengthen the village center.33 There is a row of underutilized properties on the south side of the Hollins Road, Liberty Road Village Center. Some of these parcels offer potential for screening the industrial uses that are further to the south. 32 33 Hollins/Wildwood Area Plan, 14. City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 34. 41 Figure 5: Map of Williamson and Hollins Road Brownfield Corridors 42 Statesman Statesman Industrial Park and the Roanoke Center for Industry and Technology (RCIT) combine to form the Statesman Brownfield Corridor. Statesman Industrial Park is accessed along Orange Avenue from Granby and Seibel Drive. The entrance to the RCIT is just north on Orange Avenue, on Blue Hills Drive. Opened in 1983, the RCIT features extremely large parcels with large amounts of green space separating the massive manufacturing structures. As the map indicates, there are several underutilized structures as well as several large amounts of land yet to be developed. No potential brownfields were identified in the RCIT. These findings are predicted in the brownfield plan.34 Since the plan was constructed after the original superfund legislation, there is a relatively low risk of these properties being contaminated. The brownfield inventory supports the brownfield plan’s recommendation of keeping the RCIT a low redevelopment priority. In the rest of the Statesman Brownfield Corridor, which consists primarily of Statesman Industrial Park, ten parcels adding up to 34.3 acres were identified as potential brownfields. This includes a 12-acre group of three parcels adjacent to Orange Avenue. One of the development opportunities in the brownfield plan recommends reuse options that will improve the street presence of Statesman Industrial Park along Orange Avenue.35 Along with this collection of identified brownfield parcels, there are also several underutilized parcels adjacent to Orange Avenue. Should the opportunity to reuse the potential brownfields or underutilized property arise, attention should be paid to creating a better demarcation of space between the industrial park and the rest of Orange 34 35 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 35. Ibid, 36. 43 Avenue. Otherwise, as the neighborhood plan for Hollins-Wildwood specifies, the goal is to prevent further expansion of commercial strip development.36 The Statesman Industrial Park is a viable entity and commercial and industrial reuses would be the most appropriate choice for the potential brownfields identified, should the need for their reuse arise. Nine non-functioning commercial properties were identified. One of these was also considered a potential brownfield. These properties would generally be good candidates for commercial reuse, due to their location within the industrial parks. 36 Hollins/Wildwood Area Plan, 48. 44 Figure 6: Map of Statesman Brownfield Corridor 45 Shenandoah Avenue – (Rail Corridor) The Coke bottling plant on the eastern end and Steel Dynamics on the west anchors the Shenandoah Avenue corridor. In total, 90 parcels were identified as potential brownfields. Together, these parcels had a combined acreage of 90.4. Additionally, 51 commercial and residential properties not identified as potential brownfields were recorded as being non-functioning. There are a high number of small parcels identified as potential brownfields. Many of these small parcels are grouped together on the same block and pose opportunities for multi-parcel redevelopment. A high percentage of the property on the southwestern side of this corridor was identified as potential brownfields. Along with Steel Dynamics, there are also several large junkyards. A mix of viable and vacant industrial and commercial property stretches along Shenandoah Avenue. Several blocks to the north, the corridor transitions into residential uses. Loudon, Melrose, and Shenandoah West neighborhood plans have similar goals with respect to this brownfield corridor. One goal is to encouraging appropriate industrial and manufacturing development in the manufacturing-zoned areas along Shenandoah Avenue. The businesses in this area contribute to the tax base and are well positioned with access to rail along a major thoroughfare. The second goal from the three neighborhood plans is to increase screening and buffering between the industrial uses along Shenandoah Avenue and the residential neighborhoods to the north.37 The brownfield inventory identified a significant number of vacant lots and empty houses. Improving the buffering between the neighborhoods and the manufacturing zones can help improve the neighborhoods overall attractiveness and viability. 37 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 28. 46 Most of the potential brownfields identified are grouped along Shenandoah Avenue. In these locations, industrial reuse would seem most appropriate. However, there are several potential brownfields located adjacent to tracts of residential property. Potential brownfields identified on 7th, 8th, 9th, and 11th street are adjacent to residential properties. Ideally, these properties could provide much needed buffering, either by converting them into green space, or by adding additional vegetative screening as a requisite to redevelopment. 47 Figure 7: Map of Shenandoah Brownfield Corridor 48 West End – (Rail Corridor) The West End Brownfield corridor contains commercial and industrial uses on either end, while the middle is predominately residential in nature. There are several nonfunctioning commercial structures and many vacant lots, especially on the eastern side of the corridor. 48 non-functioning properties were identified. This included 24 residential properties and 24 commercial properties. Similar to the land use distribution, the identified potential brownfields are located on each end of the corridor. In total, 18.2 acres, made up of 48 parcels, were identified as potential brownfields. The two largest potential brownfield parcels are located on either side of Sheffer Boulevard. This area is characterized by the large rail yard at the corridor’s western end. The potential brownfield parcels in this area are buffered from the residential areas further east. As the brownfield plan suggests, properties in this area would be well suited for industrial or commercial infill development.38 The rest of the potential brownfields are located on the other end of the corridor. These parcels are located in an area where residential uses transition into commercial type uses. A large amount of vacant parcels are also present. This area presents several strategic redevelopment opportunities. The Jefferson Center and 13th street village center sits on the southeastern side of the corridor. The brownfield plan indicates interest in expanding the downtown district west towards the Jefferson Center.39 Historic tax credits in this area are available and there are growing opportunities to shift the land use towards residential and commercial mixed use type development. There is a row of potential 38 39 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 30. City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 30. 49 brownfields within the village center idea for residential or mixed-use redevelopment. The rest of the potential brownfields are located further north, scattered among commercial and vacant properties. 50 Figure 8: Map of West End Brownfield Corridor 51 Campbell Avenue – (Rail Corridor) The Campbell Avenue corridor is the last of the brownfield corridors. Twelve non-functioning parcels were identified. This includes six residential properties and six commercial properties. 15.4 acres, made up of 37 parcels were identified as potential brownfields. Except for two large parcels of 6.2 and 2.7 acres, the rest of the potential brownfields are very small parcels, most around 0.1 acres. On their own, small parcels are unattractive candidates for commercial and industrial reuse. In the Campbell Avenue corridor, most of these small parcels are conveniently grouped together. In many instances, this has been the result of subdividing a larger parcel and a single owner retained ownership of the whole group. A number of potential brownfields were identified on the east side of Tinker Creek. The brownfield plan indicates that steep topography will be a hindrance to development. This is supported by the significant amount of vacant properties in this area. The plan suggests properties on the east side of Tinker Creek may contribute to some infill and accommodation of the future Tinker Creek greenway corridor.40 Several potential properties adjacent to the east bank of Tinker Creek could potentially serve in this capacity. Increased access to the planned greenway corridor could encourage infill on Purcell Avenue. Currently, only one home is located on this block, surrounded by vacant parcels. Two other blocks of potential brownfields are located on the east side of Tinker Creek, one block is on Eastern Avenue, and the other on Wayland Street and Daleton Rd. Again, topography may be a limiting factor for redevelopment, but the Eastern Avenue 40 City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan, 32. 52 sites in particular may pose redevelopment opportunities for major industrial businesses looking to expand their operations. On the west side of Tinker Creek, most of the potential brownfields are located in established areas of commercial and industrial activity. The brownfield plan and the Belmont-Fallon neighborhood plans indicate industrial and commercial use should be concentrated in existing zones to prevent these uses spreading into adjacent residential areas.41 This indicates industrial and commercial reuse would be most appropriate for the potential brownfields located along the Campbell Avenue industrial district and those parcels adjacent to 11th Street. The exception may be the seven contiguous parcels on the north side of Gregory Avenue. A small residential section appears to be negatively impacted by the close proximity to the potential brownfields and the nearby commercial/industrial activities. There are a number of vacant parcels in this neighborhood. The potential brownfields could be reused to create a better buffer between the residences and commercial activities. 41 City of Roanoke, Virginia. 2003. Belmont-Fallon Neighborhood Plan, 34. 53 Figure 9: Map of Campbell Avenue Brownfield Corridor 54 General Analysis The impact of the rail lines on the location of potential brownfields becomes increasingly apparent when the perspective is broadened to include the entire city. This is not surprising, especially considering the railroads were a primary selection criteria used to establish the boundaries of the brownfield corridors. There are also a substantial number of parcels located within the flood plains of the Roanoke River and Tinker Creek. In total, 263 parcels, comprising 407.2 acres, were identified as potential brownfields. Additionally, 219 parcels with non-functioning structures were identified. As a reminder, the redevelopment opportunities presented in the corridor-specific analysis fit within three main objectives: 1. Convert underused industrial property along the Roanoke River to a green corridor with a supporting mix of commercial and residential uses 2. Revitalize brownfield sites in or immediately adjacent to residential neighborhoods as neighborhood-scale commercial operations that reinforce Village Centers or provide opportunities for technology and entrepreneurial business and to create opportunities for clusters and other mixed development. 3. Reinforce industrial corridors by reusing property for new operations for more efficient land use and to strengthen the industrial base of the city. The brownfield inventory largely confirms the importance and relevancy of these three objectives and the recommendations put forth in the previous sections fall within these objectives. The general location of brownfields tends to be near and along the City’s rivers and floodplains, and/or rail lines. In many of the corridors, potential brownfield parcels are adjacent to residential areas and there is a great need for creating 55 better buffers. Also, most corridors feature brownfields dispersed in and among sections of active, viable commercial and industrial businesses. Together, each of these three objectives roughly represents a piece of the sustainability triangle. Sustainability, in any regard, should incorporate three aspects: environmental, economical, and societal. The first objective is primarily concerned with protecting the Roanoke River, a valuable environmental aspect. The second objective aims to strengthen residential communities and village centers in and around brownfields. Many of these residential areas are distressed. The equity issue this objective addresses is apparent. Finally, the third objective seeks to strengthen the economic base, where appropriate. 56 Figure 10: Map of Identified Potential Brownfields 57 V. Brownfield Impact on Residential Property Value This section presents a quantitative model to examine the impact of Brownfield sites on residential property value in the City of Roanoke. Based upon the existing literature,42 three null hypotheses will be tested: HO1: Proximity to a potential brownfield site has no effect on residential property value. HO2: The number of potential brownfield sites in the adjacent area has no effect on residential property value. 42 Chilton, Kenneth. Peter Schwarz and Kenneth Godwin. 2002 Final Report Verifying the Social, Environmental and Economic Promise of Brownfield Programs. EPA BFRES 04-02. Hao, Huili. 2008. The Impacts of Brownfields on Property Values and Private Investments in Charlottes, NC. Dissertation- NC State University. Kaufman, Dennis and Norman Cloutier. 2006. The Impact of Small Brownfields and Greenspaces on Residential Property Values. Journal of Real Estate, Finance, and Economics, 33, 19-30. Leigh, Nancey and Sarah Coffin. 2005. Modeling the Relationship among Brownfields, Property Values, and Community Revitalization. Housing Policy Debate, 16(2), 257-280. Simons, Robert and Jesse Saginor. 2006. A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Environmental Contamination on Residential Real Estate Values. The Journal of Real Estate Research, 28, 71-104. 58 HO3: The total area of potential brownfield sites in the adjacent area has no effect on residential property value. These hypotheses are testing two distinct relationships between brownfields and surrounding property values. HO1 is a test of the proximity relationship. HO2 and HO3 are tests of the magnitude relationship. Together, the distance from a given brownfield and the magnitude of brownfields within a set range captures the two most telling characteristics of a given parcel’s spatial relationship to a set of identified potential brownfields. 500, 1000, and 1500 feet are typical ranges for testing brownfield magnitude.43 500 feet is used in this model. Regression Model Based on the existing literature, the function form of the regression model is: Ln(value) = " 0 + "1lotsize + " 2bathrooms + " 3bedrooms + " 4 brownfield distance +" 5brownfield count + " 6brownfield acreage + " 7 pct.White + " 8 pct unemployed + " 9income + # In the regression model, the dependent variable is the value of the property. The dependent variable is transformed using the natural log. This reduces the effect of outlying values and may help mitigate problems associated with heteroskedasticity. 43 Leigh and Coffin, 271. 59 The value can take one of two common forms of measurement. Value can either be measured as property assessment value or by recent sale price. Using sales data can introduce sampling bias. It is likely brownfields will be found in depressed areas with low market activity. By using sales data, the study areas of interest will be excluded from the data sample. There are reliability issues associated with assessment values. Assessment data may be biased downward in low-income areas because a lack in sales activity will lead to a lag in home reassessment. Due to the recent downturn in housing market activity and the arguments put for by Leigh and Coffin44, the combined assessment value of the land and structure was chosen as the measurement for the dependent variable, property value. The model incorporates three groups of independent variables. The first group contains variables related to structural characteristics. This includes the variables lot size (in acres), number of bathrooms, and number of bedrooms. The second group of variables describes the relative brownfield spatial distribution. This includes the variables distance to nearest brownfield (1000 feet), amount of potential brownfield parcels within a 500foot radius, and the amount of potential brownfield acres within a 500-foot radius. The third group contains variables describing neighborhood characteristics. This includes the variables percentage of white residents, unemployment rate, and median household income. The data for this group comes from census block group demographics. 44 Leigh and Coffin, 267-268. 60 Table 3. Roanoke Potential Brownfield Regression Results lot size .0673882 Coefficient (log transformation, x =1) .0697107 bathrooms .1889748 .2080105 .0040017 47.22 0.000 bedrooms .1313596 .1403778 .0032576 40.32 0.000 brownfield distance .0341732 .0347638 .0007932 43.08 0.000 brownfield ct -.0376063 -.0369079 .0041958 -8.96 0.000 brownfield acre -.0238861 -.0236031 .0049724 -4.80 0.000 percent white .0040597 .0040679 .0000862 47.11 0.000 percent unemployed -.0095435 -.0094981 .0005498 -17.36 0.000 income .0235702 .0238502 .0003162 74.53 0.000 constant 9.781728 17706.22 .0145316 673.13 0.000 Variable Coefficient Std Error t P>[t] .0033583 20.07 0.000 n = 22640 R2 = 0.6839 Adj R2 = 0.6837 The model is estimated as: ln(Val) = 9.781728 + 0.067 lot size + 0.189 bathrooms + 0.131 bedrooms + 0.034 brownfield distance - 0.038 500 ft brownfield count- 0.024 500 ft brownfield acreage + 0.004 percent white – 0.0095 percent unemployed + 0.0236 income All of the variables in the model are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. There were 22,640 sample observations. This included all single-family homes in Roanoke that had the necessary property data. The model has an R2 value of 0.68. This indicates the model explains 68% of the variation in housing value. Model Interpretation Table 3 provides the standard coefficients along with the transformed coefficients. This model has a log-level function form because housing value was transformed using 61 log. The coefficients in the model represent a semi-elastic relationship. As a rule of thumb, it is common to interpret the standard coefficient as the proportion change in y, given a unit change in x. This rule of thumb becomes distorted as the coefficient and/or change in x becomes larger. The accurate coefficient conversion is calculated as: %!y = 100[exp("j!xj)-1. The converted coefficients are interpreted below. The variable, distance to potential brownfield, has a coefficient 0.035. For every 1,000 feet closer to the nearest potential brownfield, home value decreases 3.5%. This variable is significant at the 99% level, so H1 is rejected and it can be concluded there is a negative effect on property value as the distance to a brownfield decreases, net of the effects of other variables. The variable, amount of potential brownfield parcels within a 500-foot radius, has a coefficient of -0.037. For every additional potential brownfield within a 500-foot radius, property value decreases by 3.7 %. This variable is significant at the 99% confidence level, so H2 is rejected and it can be concluded that there is a negative effect of property value as the amount of potential brownfield parcels within 500 feet increases, net of the effects of other variables. The variable, total acreage of potential brownfields within a 500-foot radius, has a coefficient of -0.024. For every additional acre of potential brownfield within a 500foot radius, property value decreases by 2.4%. This variable is significant at the 99% confidence level, so H3 is rejected and it can be concluded that there is a negative effect on property value as the amount of potential brownfield acreage within a 500-foot radius increases, net of the effects of other variables. 62 All the remaining variables in this model were also statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. Lot size (acres) has a coefficient of 0.069. There is a 6.9% increase in property value for every acre increase in lot size. Number of bathrooms has a coefficient of 0.208. There is a 20.8% increase in property value for every additional bathroom. Number of bedrooms has a coefficient of 0.140. There is a 14% increase in property value for every additional bedroom. Percent white has a coefficient of 0.004. There is a 0.4% increase in property value for every percentage point increase in the proportion of white people in the block group. Percent Unemployed has a coefficient of 0.0095. There is a 0.95% decrease in property value for every percentage point increase in the proportion of unemployed residents in the block group. Income has a coefficient of 0.024. Property value increases 2.4% for every $1000 increase in the block group’s median household income. VI. Conclusions This paper has provided an initial assessment of the visually identified potential brownfields within the city of Roanoke’s nine brownfield corridors. This began with a summary of federal and state brownfield policy and a short discussion on the importance of brownfield identification, redevelopment, and the beneficial tools that are available. The next section introduced Roanoke’s City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan. The plan contains redevelopment goals and strategies, but does not identify specific brownfield sites. The main effort of this paper was to conduct an initial visual inspection of the nine corridors and identify potential brownfields. The results of these efforts were cataloged using ArcGIS. 63 In total, 263 parcels, comprising 407 acres, were identified as potential brownfields. Additionally, 219 parcels were identified with non-functioning structures. Each corridor was mapped and the locations of identified potential brownfields were analyzed using the “Citywide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan” and the neighborhood plans. Finally, a regression model was used to measure the effect the potential brownfields have on residential property values. Three hypotheses related to brownfield effect were tested. It was concluded that: Property value decreases as the distance from a potential brownfield decreases; Property value decreases as the amount of potential brownfield parcels within a 500-foot radius increases; Property value decreases as the amount of potential brownfield acreage within a 500-foot radius increases. The results of the regression model clearly demonstrate the negative impact potential brownfields in the brownfield corridors have on property values. The findings in this paper will hopefully serve as a useful reference for the city of Roanoke as it continues its efforts regarding brownfield redevelopment. This inventory of potential brownfields is neither certain nor definitive. However, until the time when resources are available for a fully funded inventory, this preliminary inventory can provide extra clarification to the conditions on the ground and help focus the resources of future efforts concerning brownfield identification. The regression model quantitatively demonstrates the negative effect potential brownfields have on surrounding residential property values. These findings strengthen the argument for brownfield redevelopment. The findings from this paper raise several issues for further consideration. When the time comes for Roanoke to conduct an extensive inventory of brownfields, careful 64 decisions need to be made to determine what will pass for a brownfield. During the course of the fieldwork, it became clear how fluid the definition of a brownfield is and the high degree of interpretation it is susceptible to. The wide degree of parcel characteristics among the various corridors allows for a wide range of brownfield interpretation. For instance, the RCIT is included in the Statesman brownfield corridor. These properties are very different from the junkyards and abandoned warehouses located in the Shenandoah Avenue corridor. At worst, the RCIT contains a vacant warehouse or manufacturing facility, relatively new and well maintained. Including these properties in the brownfield corridor implies a less restrictive definition. If these types of properties are potentially brownfields, then many more properties in this initial inventory would be considered brownfields. It would be useful for Roanoke to set specific parameters to the brownfield definition. The distribution of brownfields among the corridors is not equal. Shenandoah, West End, and the Western Roanoke River corridor contain many acres of potential brownfields, while the Hollins and Williamson Road corridor contain relatively few identified potential brownfields. The benefits of targeting the Williamson Road corridor for redevelopment in this document should be weighed against the likely stigma generated by labeling it a brownfield corridor, when the conditions on the ground do not reflect the same risk of brownfield contamination as compared to areas like the former American Viscose property. The brownfield corridors are useful, initial tools. They prioritize redevelopment and concentrate resources in areas of greatest need. Once a comprehensive inventory is conducted, the usefulness of labeling these corridors will decrease. This is because the 65 corridor is not important, but rather the actual parcel and neighborhood that matters. Once the corridors have been analyzed and the brownfields have been inventoried, the focus should be on the actual parcels and the neighborhoods they make up. The CityWide Brownfield Plan is an important document and the policies and opportunities it identifies are valuable planning tools. However, once an inventory has been completed and the need for concentrating focus on the corridors is diminished, one suggestion would be to reorganize the brownfield plan along the existing neighborhood boundaries, or to incorporate the relevant brownfield sections into each corresponding neighborhood plan. As a final word, brownfields typically are stigmatized. This paper has largely focused on the negative effects of brownfields. But brownfields, if they are anything, are opportunities. They are opportunities for reuse. They are opportunities for public/private partnerships. They are opportunities for improving the community. Labeling a parcel “brownfield” does not condemn it to issues of liability and financial ruin. Rather, it is just the opposite. As was discussed in the first section of this paper, owners and redevelopers can receive liability protections and grant funds to assess, clean, and redevelop the property. Identifying a property as a brownfield is not a bad thing. Rather, labeling a property a brownfield indicates it has great potential for future value. In this sense, being a brownfield is a positive thing, and it is time to embrace the label, not stigmatize it. 66 Reference Bucks County. (2004). Brownfields Inventory and US EPA Brownfields Pilot Summary Report. 2. Chilton, Kenneth. Peter Schwarz and Kenneth Godwin. (2002). Final Report Verifying the Social, Environmental and Economic Promise of Brownfield Programs. EPA BFRES 04-02. 5-9. City of Roanoke, Virginia. (2007). City-Wide Brownfield Redevelopment Plan. City of Roanoke, Virginia. 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