January 28, 2016 Course: The Strategic Uses of Survey Research in Political Campaigns
Instructor: Jason McGrath
Time: Wednesdays, 3:00 PM - 5:50 PM
Quarter: Spring 2016
Course Number: 31730
Description: This course will provide the student with an introduction to the basic facets of survey
research as it relates to modern political campaigns, from sampling (WHO gets interviewed), survey
design (WHAT gets asked), data analysis techniques, and interpretation of results (WHAT does it mean).
The main focus of the class will be how polling is used to understand public opinion and help candidates
win elections. We will look at how the polling industry is changing, what challenges pollsters need to
overcome in order to guide their candidates to victory, and how polling will affect the 2016 election at all
levels. The course leader wears is an active Democratic polling consultant to dozens of campaigns
(federal, state, and local) and organizations each cycle.
Grades/Assignments: Final grades will be based on the following:
1. Class participation (25% of grade)
2. Questionnaire design (25% of grade): using a real world example, write a questionnaire for a
benchmark survey. DUE: April 18th
3. Focus group memo (25% of grade): write 3-4 page memo based off in-class focus group. DUE: May
9th
4. Strategy memo (3-5 pages) and paid communications recommendations based on actual poll (toplines and cross-tabs) (25% of grade) Due: May 23rd
Readings/Texts:
The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns, Sasha Issenberg, Crown Publishers, 2012
Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, Herbert Asher, 8th Edition, CQ Press, 2012
Political Polling In the Digital Age: The Challenge of Measuring and Understanding Public Opinion,
edited by Kirby Goidel, Louisiana State University Press, 2011
Selected news articles
Week 1 (March 28): Introduction/Overview, including Role of Polling in Campaigns
Topics:
Professor introduction
Review syllabus, course requirements, and policies
Student introduction
Discussion on perceptions of political campaigns – at the Presidential and local levels
How a modern campaign is “put together,” with emphasis on opinion researcher
Types of surveys, polls, and research designs
What is the difference between public polls (“horse race”) and campaign polling
Discuss “timing” of survey research projects
How polling is used to influence campaign strategy and tactics
Readings For Week 1 Class:
The Victory Lab: Prologue, Chapter 1
Polling and the Public: Chapter 1
Selected articles:
 http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine
 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-history-of-data-in-american-politics-part-1-william-jenningsbryan-to-barack-obama/
 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-history-of-data-in-american-politics-part-2-obama-2008-tothe-present/
 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/
 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kirby-goidel/poll-dancing-things-worth_b_9052332.html
Week 2 (April 4): What goes into a survey instrument? Questionnaire design and opposition/self
research **Guest Lecturer: Edward Chapman (policy/opposition research)
Topics:
How does a pollster construct a survey instrument?
Question context, word choice, order
How do we decide what to test and what not to test?
What is the role of “oppo” and “self” in polling?
Students will receive first assignment: drafting a survey instrument
Readings For Week 2 Class:
Polling and the Public: Chapter 2, Chapter 3
Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 1, Chapter 3
http://cstpr.colorado.edu/students/envs_5120/taylorpowell_QD1998.pdf
Students will review public and proprietary questionnaires
Week 3 (April 11): Sampling Issues, Data Collection, Modeling
Topics:
Types of survey administration methods
Sampling, representativeness, and response rates
Determining who gets into a poll’s sample (students will help construct a universe for a low-turnout
election)
Weighting and adjusting of the sample
A look at alternatives to traditional polling
Readings For Week 3 Class:
Polling and the Public: Chapter 4, Chapter 5
Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 2, 7
Selected articles:


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
http://www.pewresearch.org/2016/01/07/can-likely-voter-models-be-improved/
Week 4 (April 18): Reading/interpreting polls and learning how polls/pollsters actually get used,
including “case study” of how polling shaped strategy for a recent race (RACE TBD)
**Guest Lecturer: Campaign manager/strategist or candidate
Topics:
How to CORRECTLY read a poll (making the numbers tell a story)
How are polls “used” by the campaign and its consultants--discussion of message, strategy, targets
Walk through actual poll presentation from recent survey
First assignment (benchmark survey instrument) due
Readings For Week 4 Class:
The Victory Lab: Chapter 6, Chapter 8
Polling and the Public: Chapter 8
Political Polling In the Digital Age: Introduction
Selected articles from case study election
Week 5 (April 25): Focus Groups & Qualitative Research
Topics:
Discuss purposes of focus group/qualitative research and comparison to quantitative
Interpretation (and mis-interpretation) of focus group research
Bringing qualitative research online
Class will work together to develop a moderator’s guide for a focus group on local issues
We’ll then conduct an actual group with community members
Students will receive second assignment: provide a written analysis of the in-class focus group
Readings For Week 5 Class:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/interviews/luntz.html
“Focus Group Methodology”
Week 6 (May 2): The practical application of survey research: Political advertising/messaging
**Guest Lecturer: Ann Liston, Partner at A/L Media and Strategist on Obama 2012 campaign
Topics:
The role of polling and focus groups in creating media spots (and direct mail)
Discussion of the trade-off between creativity and political insights (“THEM”) versus attitudinal data and
strategic insights (“US”)
Review online ad test for previous campaign and then show/discuss resulting ads
Discussion of “good ads” vs. “bad ads”, different types of ads, when and where to run ads and how many
times someone needs to see an ad before it sinks in (spoiler alert: a lot)
Readings For Week 6 Class:
The Victory Lab: Chapter 3, Chapter 4, Chapter 7
Selected articles:
 http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/greg-abbott-texas-114972.html
 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/29/were-obamas-early-ads-really-the-gamechanger/
 http://themonkeycage.org/2013/05/how-much-did-the-2012-air-war-and-ground-game-matter/
Week 7 (May 9): When polls get it wrong and a look at polling in the 2016 campaigns
**Guest Lecturer: Republican pollster David Kanevsky, former VP at American Viewpoint and senior
staffer at the National Republican Senatorial Committee
**Guest Lecturer: Nathan Gonzales, Rothenberg Gonzales Political Report
Topics:
Why were the polls skewed in 2012? What happened in 2014? How did this impact campaign strategy?
What are the challenges with polling in low turnout elections? (with a focus on Kentucky’s 2015
Gubernatorial election)
How did the 2014 polling affect the news coverage of major races? How are “prognosticators” covering
2016 given what happened in recent elections?
What do Democratic and Republican pollsters have in common? (more than you might think)
Discussion with renowned DC political pundits on political campaign coverage and their (give-and-take
relationships) with pollsters and polls
Second assignment (focus group analysis) due
Students will receive final assignment: provide a written analysis a survey, along with recommendations
for paid communications campaign, based on crosstabs and toplines of an actual survey
Readings For Week 7 Class:
Polling and the Public: Chapter 6, Chapter 7
Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 4
Selected articles:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/many-of-the-2014-polls-were-wrong-which-is-why-weshould-be-skeptical-of-individual-polls/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/24/why-likely-voter-polls-maybe-misleading/
“Survey Methods, Complex and Ever Evolving” (Frank Newport)
“The GOP polling debacle”(Alexander Burns, Politico)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/heres-why-the-kentucky-polls-werewrong_us_563a2fa4e4b0411d306f099a?pp41v2t9=
Week 8 (May 16): (A) Targeting, Micro-targeting, Analytics, (B) Polling & Direct Mail
**Guest Lecturer: Sasha Issenberg, author of The Victory Lab
**Guest Lecturer: Terry Walsh, Strategy Group, Obama 2012 Targeting Director & direct mail consultant
Topics:
Analytics, Big Data, and other uses of telephone surveys
The role of polling and focus groups in creating direct mail pieces; use of polling to help with direct mail
targets
**This class may overlap with the June 2015 NBC/WSJ poll, in which case we would use the NBC/WSJ
poll as the “vehicle” to discuss the 2016 election
Readings For Week 8 Class:
The Victory Lab: Chapter 2, Chapter 5, Chapter 9, Epilogue
Selected articles:
 http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/the-gops-numbers-problem-112927_Page2.html
 http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-torally-voters/
 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/opinion/beware-the-big-data-campaign.html?_r=0
 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/23/magazine/the-obama-campaigns-digital-masterminds-cashin.html?_r=1
 http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/11/senator-ted-cruz-president-campaignfacebook-user-data
Week 9 (May 23): Polling on issues, the future of campaign research and challenges in polling and
Wrap-Up
**Guest Lecturer: TENTATIVE: Mark Blumenthal, Survey Monkey
Topics:
Discussion of the “permanent” campaign (ie governing)
Different types of polling – online, IVR, etc – and the comparative strengths and weaknesses
Lower connection rates and how pollsters are adapting
Discussion on how to enter the field and what opportunities exist
Final assignment is due
Readings For Week 9 Class:
Polling and the Public: Chapter 9
Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 5, 6
Selected articles:
 “Why Policymakers Should Ignore Public Opinion Polls,” Robert Weissberg (Policy Analysis)
Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, Chapter 7, Chapter 8
Selected articles:
 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-polling-industry-in-stasis-or-in-crisis/







http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/why-polls-tend-to-undercountdemocrats.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polling-is-getting-harder-but-its-a-vital-check-on-power/#ss-7
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/06/researchers-warn-of-bias-inlandline-only-phone-polls-18
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacypdf/Assessing%20the%20Representativeness%20of%20Public%20Opinion%20Surveys.pdf
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phones_and_political_surv.php
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/reching-latino-voters-challengepollsters_us_5645e17ee4b08cda34884e35?utm_hp_ref=%40pollster