Promotions in the Retail Industry Study elaborated by Simon-Kucher & Partners in collaboration with Sartia (Extract) Philip Daus, Tim Brzoska Madrid/Bonn March 2011 Bonn office Haydnstr. 36, 53115 Bonn Tel. +49 228 9843-0, Fax +49 228 9843-380 E-Mail: tim.brzoska@simon-kucher.com www.simon-kucher.com Executive summary Every year the Spanish retail sector invests more than 4,700 million euros in promotions. Price promotions are used by 80% of the companies. Promotional discount levels used are very high: 69% of companies use discounts of 20% or more, and on average 25% of all products are on promotion. Only a minority of companies focus on profitability as a primary goal of the promotion, approximately 3 out of 4 promotions have a negative ROI. The excessive focus on revenues and volume (the obsession with market share) results in a vicious circle of price decreases, which reduce margins across the whole industry. According to respondents, to improve the management of promotions, you have to concentrate particularly on defining objectives and on monitoring the effects of promotions; 45% of companies do not set specific targets for sales, and only 2% use essential KPIs, for example, for measuring postponement of purchase and storage. In our experience, there is also considerable potential for improving the definition of discount levels. Only 1 out of 10 managers correctly consider the effect of the discounts on profits! Likewise, only 1 out of 10 companies measure promotional elasticities, price thresholds and substitution effects. Without considering these topics, it is impossible to predict and measure the effect that the promotion will have on revenues and profits. © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Consumer Goods & Retail, Philip Daus -1- Price promotions are used most often All the participant companies have used some type of promotion during the year. Price promotions are the most popular, used by 80% of participants. Types of promotions used by companies «Discount of 50%." «New price €4.90." Price promotions «Free T-shirt with the purchase of the product." Gifts «Points or credits to be exchanged by products or prizes." Loyalty program «Buy 3 units and get one extra unit for free." Volume discounts «Buy products A, B and C together with a discount of 20%." Bundling «Buy 3 products, instead of €3.00 pay €2.50." Multibuy «Extra 50gr for free." «Raffles" «Free transport" Packaging offers Others Do price promotions achieve the desired effect? Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Consumer Goods & Retail, Philip Daus -2- For almost half of promotions there are no clearly defined objectives A total of 45% of the companies don’t set clear objectives for promotions. The increase of revenue and volumes are the most important priorities, unlike profitability, which for them is less relevant. Do they set objectives? Objectives’ relative relevance Turnover increase No, never 4,2 Volume increase 4,0 Attract new customers Only in superficially Yes, for each promotion 3,8 Traffic increase in shops 3,8 Increase customer loyalty 3,6 Stock rotation increase 3,6 Brand value increase 3,2 Improve price image Maximize profitability 3,1 2,9 The main goal of promotions should be overall profitability, while focusing excessively on revenue and market share can lead to dangerous price wars! Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Consumer Goods & Retail, Philip Daus -3- Several criteria help to choose the right product (2) … but only 15% of companies said that they are measuring elasticities and only 5% of them measure the effects on other products (cross-price elasticities). ? Before setting the price or discount of a product it is necessary to quantify the effect on the volume of this product, other products in its category and global sales. Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus -4- The discounts are round and very high By analyzing the frequency of each level of discount, it is outstanding that almost all companies always apply round discounts and the level is usually very high. Distribution of discounts in price promotions 23.4% of all promotions are made with a discount of 20%. Companies apply almost exclusively round discounts. 69% of the promotions are made with a discount of 20% or higher. The discount of 20% is more common: Is it a psychological threshold? Nivel de descuento To select the right level of discounts it is necessary to analyze elasticities and price thresholds. Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 Otros: 5% © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus -5- Non-application of Value Pricing to define the promotional discount In practice, only few companies measure elasticities and thresholds, so it is impossible to predict the effect the discount will have on volume. Aspects considered in the setting of the discount level Cost-plus margin Habit and intuition Competitors Value pricing Considering costs and prices of competitors is not enough. Companies can’t optimize their promotional management without measuring promotional elasticities. Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 Otros: 5% © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus -6- Managers underestimate or ignore the negative impact on profit Alarming: 9 of 10 managers underestimate or ignore the necessary increment in volume to compensate for a price reduction! Estimations of the impact of the price promotion 8% Strong overestimation 2% Slight overestimation Correct estimation 3% Slight underestimate 3% How much should the volume increase in order to compensate for a 20% price reduction? Setting discount levels of promotions based on intuition is extremely dangerous!!! Highly underestimated 44% Do not know 39% Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 * ¡Pregunta realizada con datos de la empresa de cada participante! © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus -7- Few indicators are measured to monitor the promotional impact According to the survey, retailers measure mainly the rotation, but in most cases no other sophisticated indicators are used to measure and control the promotional success. Monitored indicators Revenues Product sales Total cost of promotion 1 ? Additional in-store traffic Category impact 2 Product profits Impact on brand image Postponement of purchase and storage 3 Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 Others 4%, * «Usted ….» © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus -8- 1 Total costs of promotion: Share-out between manufacturer and distributor According to the survey, retailers assume most of the costs of promotion. It also seems that mediumsized retailers negotiate better promotional conditions than big companies. Promotional costs share-out Medium retailers assume lower costs than big retailers. Retailer’s Revenues in millions € Monitoring: % costs Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus Average: 65% ? -9- Study «Promotions in the Retail Industry»: Technical file The survey was conducted through an online questionnaire sent to 4,500 Managers of the Retail and Consumer Goods industry, receiving 221 valid answers. ? Universe Managers and Pricing Managers of Retail and Consumer Goods Industries Methodology Online questionnaire with 20 questions Procedure Mailing to Sartia and Simon-Kucher & Partners contacts Duration Sample size Field work from February until March 2011 Questionnaire sent to n = 4,500 221 valid answers € Sampling error 3.9% for a confidence level of 95% (infinite population) Source: Sartia/Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Study "Promotions in the Retail Sector"; n= 221 © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Consumer Goods & Retail, Philip Daus - 10 - Company size and positions of respondents A total of 53% of the respondents work in companies with over €100 million in revenue, and 80% of them have high positions in their companies. Size by revenue (M€) Positions* General Manager Commercial Marketing 80% Manager Sales Purchases Finance Pricing Manager Product Manager Others © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Bienes de Consumo & Retail, Philip Daus - 11 - Simon-Kucher & Partners tips for promotional management 1. Set a target for each promotion. Business profitability should always be the main target of promotional activities. 2. Select the type of promotion and promotional product depending on strategic targets. Thoroughly analyze whether price promotions are the most appropriate, as they are usually less profitable, or if any other sort of promotions would achieve targets better. 3. Quantify both the total cost and the effect of promotion on revenues before implementing any promotion. 4. To quantify the total impact on revenues, always measure promotional elasticity, price thresholds, and most important, cross elasticity. Moreover, measure dynamic effects of promotions such as postponement of purchase and storage before promotion. 5. Use multiple methodologies and sources to analyze the effects of past promotions, i.e. historical data or customer surveys. Perform consistent qualitative and quantitative evaluations of each promotion to ensure a positive ROI and boost the impact of promotions. © Simon-Kucher & Partners 2011, Competence Center Consumer Goods & Retail, Philip Daus - 12 -