Ramsey Medal Speech:
Experiences and
Learning
L. Robin Keller
University of California, Irvine
November 2, 2015
INFORMS Annual Meeting, Philadelphia
1
Moshe Rubinstein
Undergraduate mentor
and dissertation co-advisor
“Creative problem solving
is important”
Created
“Patterns of Problem Solving”
breadth class for all majors
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“Creative problem solving
is important”
Keller & Joanna Ho,
“Decision Problem Structuring: Generating Options”
IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, & Cybernetics, 18(5) 1988
Story: Rakesh and I tried to pick up Amos Tversky
at LAX airport on an April evening…
3
Jacob Marschak
(1898-1977)
"the Father of Econometrics"
3 doctoral students & 3 professors took
his class on Economic Theory of Teams
(Marschak and Radner)
Colloquium: Tversky spoke on prospect theory
“Make very simple examples to
illustrate fundamental ideas”
His doctoral students:
Modigliani, Markowitz, Hurwicz
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“Make very simple examples to
illustrate fundamental ideas”
Keller, Rakesh Sarin on fairness axioms
Keller, Sarin, and Martin Weber,
“Empirical Investigation of Some Properties of the
Perceived Riskiness of Gambles”, OBHDP, 38,1986
Yitong Wang, Liangyan Wang, Keller,
“Discounting over Subjective Time: Subjective Time Perception
Helps Explain Multiple Discounted Utility Anomalies”,
forthcoming, Intl. J. of Research in Marketing
5
Jim Dyer
“Multiple attributes matter”
“Be true to your (UT) school
& your Morgan (car)”
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“Multiple attributes matter”
“StarKist paper”
Monika I. Winn & Keller, “A Modeling Methodology for
Multi-Objective Multi-Stakeholder Decisions: Implications for Research”,
Journal of Management Inquiry, 10(2) 2001.
Keller, Jay Simon, Yitong Wang,
“Multiple objective decision analysis involving multiple stakeholders,” Tutorials in
Operations Research, 2009
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Rakesh Sarin
“Fairness matters”
“Utility vs. value” w/Dyer
“Think deeply
(& philosophically)
& walk the dog while thinking”
Dissertation co-chair
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“Fairness matters”
Keller & Sarin,
“Equity in Social Risk: Some Empirical Observations”,
Risk Analysis, 8(1), 1988
Wen-Qiang Bian & Keller, “Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair, but
Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks”,
Risk Analysis, 19 (3), 1999
“Utility vs. value”
Keller, “An Empirical Investigation of Relative Risk Aversion”,
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 15(4), 1985
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(Famous finance Prof. Richard Roll debating merits of this paper with other UCLA finance faculty)
Dissertation
Cleverly designed color coded
visual problem representations
help people conform with the
substitution/sure-thing principles
of expected utility theory (Keller,
Mgt. Sci. 1985)
New opportunity:
“Found a field of
Vision and Decision”
10
Irv LaValle thanked
Phillip Morris in
his Ramsey speech
I could thank
Diet Coke,
but I gave it up
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Instead of Coke, I thank all of you and
my husband, Hank McMillan
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Irv LaValle
“Play while you work”
He wrote a “Dallas” TV episode featuring a professor &
submitted it to the producers
Irv awarded me a small piece of clear plastic for “clarity”
in the Ward Edwards conference in Santa Cruz in 1989*.
At the conference we played academic trivia games
Q: What did Duncan Luce and Robin Keller have
in common that the rest in the room did not?
A: Left handed, went by middle name,
published in Theory and Decision
*"Utility: Theories, Measurements and Applications" Conference,. Normative, prescriptive, and behavioral decision researchers
discussed expected utility theory and generalized expected utility (G.E.U.) theories, such as prospect theory, which relax axioms
required by expected utility or subjective expected utility (S.E.U.).
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We sang parody songs, Chew Soo Hong on piano.
“Battle Hymn of S.E.U.”
(Ward Edwards & David Matheson)
Mine eyes have seen the glory of the norms called S.E.U.
They capture rationality, the finest thing to do.
The people who adhere to them are winners through and through;
Substi-tu-ta-bil-i-ty
Through experiment we ramble
Always picking the right gamble
That is only the preamble;
Ra-tio-na-li-ty!
Alternative, decision, uncertainty, and chance.
We list and then elicit from our clients at a glance.
Our values cover everything from money to romance;
Trans-i-ti-vi-ty!......
Full text & Beatles’ “Yesterday” parody in “Multiattribute & Intertemporal Preferences, Probability & Stochastic Processes: Models and Assessment- From the Editor” Decision Analysis 8(3) 165-169.
14
Detlof von Winterfeldt
“People first”
(from his DAS column)
15
Bayesian Research Conference
Ward Edwards
16
Craig Kirkwood
“Convert projects to publications”
“The current crisis will pass”
17
Ralph Keeney
“Don’t say yes immediately, think about how the
activity fits in with your personal &
professional objectives”
“Value-focused thinking:
Creatively organize where &
how you live”
“Do some “real” projects”
18
Ralph Keeney facilitated a
strategic planning retreat
at his SF home.
We planned the journal
while looking at
spectacular bridge views.
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Kelly Kophazi
Managing Editor, Decision Analysis
“Make each person feel that he/she is
the only person you are working with
(the top priority)”
20
DA Editors and Associate Editors
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“Our expertise is valued on
National Academy
Committees and at NSF”
Tianjun Feng & Keller, “A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for
Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear
Incidents”, Decision Analysis, 2006, 3(2)
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Paul Fischbeck
Karen Jenni
L. Robin Keller
+ other experts
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Spring 1989 NSF
Decision, Risk & Mgt. Science Panel
Galiano Island, British Columbia
24
NSF DRMS Panel
25
NSF DRMS panel
26
UC Irvine
Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences Conference
Duncan Luce, director
27
Co-author Students
28
UCI ODT Faculty
29
Co-authors
Jayavel Sounderpandian
Uzi Segal, Elizabetta Strazzera
Peter Farquhar…
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Vamanos a Cuba
March 8-11, 2016
Havana, Cuba
http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/lrkeller/cuban-operations-research-conference2016/
Gracias por todo
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