RSS NEWS
Volume 39
Number 5
October 2011
NEWS AND VIEWS FROM THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY
Cricket – an endless source
of statistics
The editor, Frank Duckworth, looks at cricket statistics and suggests some
areas for further investigation that might appeal to statisticians.
in this issue
Exams pass list p4
Exams timetable p5
Exams in Hong Kong p5
Exams agreement with
Japanese Statistical
Society p7
Nominations for section
committees p8
RSS makes impact in
Dublin p9
CPD – burden or
benefit? p12
New treasurer p13
RegulaRs
Professional awards p5
Education p6
New fellows p7
News of fellows p7
Events/Diary/Contacts
centre pages
getstats bulletin p9
Sections p10
Forsooth! p11
Local groups p11
Official statistics p13
In the news p14
Pictured at an empty MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) earlier this year, Frank imagines Don Bradman
(inset) coming out to bat.
N
o other sport, indeed possibly no other
human activity, creates more discussion on
statistics than does the game of cricket. The
top shelf of my bookcase is lined with back editions
of Wisden, each containing about 1000 pages of
details of matches played in the preceding year.
From this data can be created countless records that
attract the cricket follower’s interest – the highest,
lowest, longest, shortest, oldest, youngest etc. Out
of this has grown a special breed of person, the
‘cricket statistician’, whose whole life seems to be
occupied with collecting and disseminating the
data generated by this fascinating game.
The late Bill Frindall was probably the best
known. He would sit alongside the radio commentators and provide almost instant answers to such
questions as ‘What is the highest partnership for
the seventh wicket between two left-handers in a
Test Match at Lord’s?’
Frindall had actually studied some statistics
during his RAF days and was conversant with the
likes of regression and correlation. But he was a
rarity in this respect. Most cricket ‘statisticians’ are
not familiar with analytical methods and so cannot
interpret their figures in terms of information which
may be of value to the game itself.
Back in 1992, I made a short presentation in a
session on ‘Statistics in sport’ at an RSS conference
neXt issue
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28 October
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RSS NEWS
RSS NEWS
Editor
Frank Duckworth
Moonrakers,Taits Hill,
Stinchcombe,
Glos GL11 6PS
Tel: 0145 354 2553
Email: rssnews@rss.org.uk
Letters editor
John Logsdon
8 Raynham Avenue
Didsbury
Manchester M20 6BW
Tel: 0161 445 4951
Email: letters@
rss-manchester.org
Local groups editor
Cathal Walsh
Department of Statistics
Trinity College
Dublin 2
Republic of Ireland
Tel: +353 1 6081731
Fax: +353 1 6615046
Email: walshc@tcd.ie
Sections editor
Chris Brignell
School of Mathematical
Sciences
University Park
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
Tel: 0115 9514982
Email: chris.brignell@nott.ac.uk
Advertising manager
Debra Olleveant
Tel: 01494 959519
Email: advertising@rss.org.uk
Production editor
Rachel Hedley
Tel: 020 8480 1683
Email: rachel@
wildstrawberry.uk.com
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Bulwell Lane, Basford
Nottingham, NG6 0BT
RSS NEWS is the news
magazine of the Royal
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Tel: 020 7638 8998
Fax: 020 7614 3905
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ISSN 1351-0657
No part of the contents may
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permission of the Royal
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agree with any opinions
expressed.
© 2011
The Royal Statistical Society
2 October 2011
held in Sheffield. In this I listed a number of ideas
for statistical studies which might result in a benefit
to the relevant game. One of these suggestions was
of estimating parameters of a formula I presented
giving average runs which might be scored in a
limited overs game of cricket as a function of both
overs remaining and wickets down. The idea was
that this formula could be used to provide a fairer
method of adjusting targets in matches which had
been shortened due to rain after they had started.
But it did require someone to get hold of relevant
match data and carry out the analysis.
It was as a direct result of this presentation that
some months later I was contacted by a mathematics lecturer at the University of the West of England,
who thought this would make a good project for
one of his final year students. The lecturer was Tony
Lewis, the Duckworth/Lewis method was thereafter
developed and my life has never been quite the
same since.
So I thought I should use this article to raise
some other aspects of cricket statistics that might
stimulate thought by statistical analysts.
uuu
On 22 July I attended the first day of the First Test
Match between England and India at Lord’s,
making use of the complimentary ticket I now
receive from the England and Wales Cricket Board
for one day’s international cricket per year.
Whatever might happen, this was a notable match
for cricket statisticians. It was the 2000th Test
Match ever played, the 100th between England
and India, and there was the chance of seeing
Sachin Tendulkar make his hundredth hundred in
international cricket, the first time this would ever
have been achieved.
Perhaps more significantly, if England won the
four match series, of which this match was the first,
then they would overtake India and South Africa
and go to the top of the world test rankings.
England would then be able to be described as the
‘best in the world’.
But does being at the top of the world rankings
actually mean being the best in the world? To be
the ‘best’, this means that they would come out top
in a hypothetical league where every team played
every other team many times but all at the same
moment. Or maybe a clearer way of explaining it
would be to say that they would be odds-on
favourites to win a match against any other side.
This is what we would all like to think that the rankings provide – a genuine order of all round
capability at a given point in time.
In fact the rankings are the result of a rather
crude calculation where points are awarded for
winning a match and these are weighted according
to the year in which it took place. The ‘year’
commences on 1 August every year. Points earned
during the 12 months before the last 1 August are
factored by 0.5 and those earned during the 12
month period prior to this are factored by 0.25.
Those earned before 1 August two years previously
drop out of the reckoning entirely. Weights are not
altered until the next 1 August whereupon the
Co-authored by the editor, this book tells the full
story of how the Duckworth/Lewis method
evolved and has survived its first 14 years. It is
published by SportsBooks, price £12.99.
rankings are given their annual update. (See
http://bit.ly/n3MpEJ for full details.)
If the purpose of rankings is to provide the best
available estimate of the order of capability, then
surely something rather more scientific is required?
Why should everything suddenly change on 1 August
every year? Couldn’t one have a simple smooth back
weighting function, for instance a Weibull, which
would represent the way the value of the result of a
match as a current measure of relative ability of the
two sides playing decreases as time passes?
An almost identical ranking system is used for
ODIs (one-day international matches with 50
overs/side) and T20Is (same with 20 overs/side), but
here the result of a single match may give rather
less information on the relative capabilities of the
two sides as many results are not so clear cut. Often
matches ‘go to the wire’ meaning that the result
may be in doubt until the last few balls, sometimes
the very last ball. Yet as far as ranking points are
concerned, the side that wins takes all. Allowance
could easily be made for the margin of victory by
making use of, dare I say it, the Duckworth/Lewis
formula.
uuu
In no other sport than cricket can fortunes change
so quickly and so often. Who could have guessed,
when England were 127/7 in the second Test Match
at Trent Bridge, and then when India overtook
England’s eventual first innings score of 221 with
only 4 wickets down, that England would go on to
win by the thumping margin of 319 runs? But small
things, like a dropped catch or an unfortunate runout ... or maybe a rather dubious umpiring decision
… can make all the difference.
When Graeme Hick scored 405 not out for
Worcestershire against Somerset in 1988, the fact
RSS NEWS
uuu
Finally, let’s look at what cricket can provide on
extreme values.
Cricket is a famously unpredictable game and
one should exercise great caution before using the
word ‘impossible’. Who would have believed that
England could win the Headingley Test Match
against Australia in 1981 when they were 135/7
during the fourth day and still needed 92 runs to
avoid an innings defeat. But Messrs Botham and
Willis had other ideas, and anyone who had
accepted the bookies’ odds of 500-1 would have
made a small fortune. Australia’s last wicket heroics
in the 2005 Edgbaston match referred to above
would have ranked not that far behind if Bowden
had got it right.
8
6
Frequency
that he survived a very confident LBW appeal when
his score was only 4 tends to be forgotten. Maybe a
different umpire would have given him out and the
record books would now look different.
On Sunday 7 August 2005 in the Second Ashes
Test Match at Edgbaston, needing 282 runs to win,
Australia had recovered from being 175/8, then
220/9, to reach 279/9 thanks to Brett Lee and
Michael Kasprowicz. Then Steve Harmison bowled
to Kasprowicz and the ball hit his glove and was
taken by wicketkeeper Geraint Jones. TV replays
showed that Kasprowicz’s hand was off the bat, in
which case he should not have been given out; but
umpire Billy Bowden didn’t see this and so England
won by 2 runs.
England were to go on to win the five-match
series 2-1 and so regain the ashes. There was a
victory parade on an open-top bus through the
centre of London and all the England team received
MBEs. England hero, Andrew Flintoff, was voted
the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year.
But if Bowden had got it right, and if we make
the (totally invalid) assumption that everything
thereafter would have happened as it actually did,
Australia would almost certainly have won the
series 2-1 and the England team would have been
criticised for not being up to the task.
One might ask how robust is the result of a
single match in terms of accurate umpiring decisions. The ICC (International Cricket Council) are
gradually moving towards the use of technology to
assist the umpires to get it right, but one wonders
how many important matches in the past may have
had the opposite results if all decisions had been
correct. It would make an interesting exercise to
conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the
distribution of innings totals arising from the variable accuracy of umpiring decisions.
4
2
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
B
Distribution of Test Match batting averages
(minimum 20 innings); printed
ESPN Cricinfo
with kind permission of ESPN Cricinfo from whose website the figures were
downloaded
Whereas there are many examples of extremely
unlikely one-off occurrences, there is one extreme
value statistic that relates to a batsman’s entire
career. I refer of course to Don Bradman’s test average of 99.94. After 69 completed innings, he had
amassed 6996 runs and needed just 4 runs from his
final match (against England at the Oval in 1948) to
give him an average of 100. In fact he was out for a
duck, being bowled by Eric Hollies from his second
ball. Australia won the match by an innings so he
didn’t get the chance to bat again, and most
comment relates to the fact that he failed to make
the 100 test average.
But what does not receive so much publicity is
the fact that his average of almost 100 is nearly 40
runs more than any other batsman has achieved in
the entire history of test cricket. One can plot the
test averages of all other players but there is no
distribution one can invent than can accommodate
the figure of the Don (see above). It is an outlier,
and would be rejected by any statistical test, but it
happened. And it happened quite simply because
Don Bradman was far and away the best there has
ever been.
The only more ‘extreme’ statistic I can think of
in any sport is the 138-game tennis set between
Mahut and Isner at Wimbledon in 2010.
What can statisticians make of such extremes?
uuu
If any reader has any thoughts on the cricket statistics
I have described here they are welcome to get in
touch. n
News and views from the RSS at:
www.rssenews.org.uk
October 2011 3
RSS NEWS
EXAMINATIONS PASS LIST
The following are the pass lists for the May 2011 RSS examinations.
The pass lists show those who were successful in each module and those who completed the Certificate or Diploma as a whole. Credits
and distinctions are not awarded in individual modules, but may be awarded when candidates have completed the Certificate or Diploma.
There were also some further candidates who requested that their names be withheld from the pass lists.
Ordinary Certificate
Module 1 (Collection and
compilation of data)
Martin Allan
Sil Arunesh
William Bediako
Claire Chetnik
Jess Cully
Joanna Dunne
Suzanne Ellis
Tom Ewing
Matthew Ford
Nina Freeman
Robert Frostick
Alan Richard Gibson
Jeremy Roy Halton
Nicola Halton
Janet Hillier
Rebecca Holley
Paul Hossack
Sarah Howe
Lorraine Mary Ireland
Helen Jones
Michael Kay
Alison Elizabeth Kay
James David Makepeace
Paul McEvoy
Kenneth John McGarry
Steven James Murray
Martin Niescior
Rittah NJeru
Trevor Page
Samantha Ryan
Angela Samuel
Gail Simmons
Charlotte Spencer-Smith
Mark Taylor
Stephen Taylor
Ben Thatcher
Dawn Thomas
Jackie Turley
Joe Watts
Nina Wilmot
Module 2 (Analysis and
presentation of data)
Martin Allan
Sil Arunesh
William Bediako
Jess Cully
Joanna Dunne
Suzanne Ellis
Tom Ewing
Matthew Ford
Alan Richard Gibson
Jeremy Roy Halton
Janet Hillier
Sarah Howe
Alison Elizabeth Kay
Michael Kay
James David Makepeace
Paul McEvoy
Steven James Murray
Samantha Ryan
Gail Simmons
Stephen Taylor
Mark Taylor
Ben Thatcher
Dawn Thomas
Joe Watts
Nina Wilmot
Completed Ordinary
Certificate
Martin Allan
Sil Arunesh
William Bediako *c
Jess Cully *d
Joanna Dunne
Suzanne Ellis *d
Tom Ewing *c
Matthew Ford
Alan Richard Gibson
Jeremy Roy Halton *d
Janet Hillier
Sarah Howe
Alison Elizabeth Kay *c
Michael Kay
James David Makepeace
Paul McEvoy
Steven James Murray *d
Samantha Ryan *d
Gail Simmons
Mark Taylor *c
Stephen Taylor
Ben Thatcher *c
Dawn Thomas *c
Joe Watts
Nina Wilmot
Higher Certificate
Module 1 (Data collection
and interpretation)
Sarah Adams
Simon Paul Anning
James Barr
Mukesh Bassi
Robert Alan Betts
Tamas Borbely
Anwen Brown
Steve Brown
Trina Cheung
Louisa Oldfield Daffin
David Dawson
Grace Edgar
Henry Forster
Joe Grassby
Shereena Griffiths
Brian Joseph Grogan
Helen Monicque Hale
Timothy Hand
Elizabeth Anne Hargreaves
Sallieann Harrison
Daniel Howard
Jack Hulme
Andy Isaacs
Ceri James
K A Prashan Madushanka
Jayatissa
Alison Jessopp
Marianne Johnstone
Edward Jones
Huw Jones
Murray Leader
Ruth Mahon
Rebecca Laura Manning
Neil Marsden
Hina Mirza
Mark Mullan
James Steven Mungall
Kathleen M O’Reilly
Angie Osborn
Daniel Christopher Perry
Kok Chee Qong
Michelle Ridley
Samantha Roe
William Rose
Paul Rucki
Gary Smith
Timothy Smith
Kevin C Stone
Dorothy Gayll Thompson
Kaif Tulloo
James Leslie Twist
Emily Margaret Uttley
James Wallis
Julia Whatley
Matthew Nigel Whitfield
Norman R Williams
James Winfield
Module 2 (Probability
models)
Daniel Ayoubkhani
James Barr
Robert Alan Betts
Amritendu Bhattacharya
Tamas Borbely
Timothy Butler
Marc Evans
Henry Forster
Joe Grassby
Bibi Zaheda Gurreeboo
Helen Monicque Hale
Elizabeth Anne Hargreaves
Joseph Haynes
Andy Isaacs
Marija Jaroslavskaja
K A Prashan Madushanka
Jayatissa
Barbara Jenkins
Alison Jessopp
Marianne Johnstone
Edward Jones
Tracy Jones
Gyantee Jugoo
Ruth L Kendall
Murray Leader
Oliver Leamon
Ruth Mahon
Rebecca Laura Manning
Dookhy Manvashi Devi
Neil Marsden
Charlie Mcdonald
Mark Mullan
James Steven Mungall
Kamla Devi NarayenJhummun
Kathleen M O’Reilly
Angie Osborn
Katherine Pegler
Daniel Christopher Perry
Ramparsad Prakash
Timothy Smith
Geoff Stephens
Kevin C Stone
Kaif Tulloo
James Leslie Twist
James Wallis
Julia Whatley
Matthew Nigel Whitfield
Norman R Williams
James Winfield
Module 3 (Basic statistical
methods)
Daniel Ayoubkhani
Stephen Blackwell
Tamas Borbely
Steve Brown
Timothy Butler
Trina Cheung
Sariyya Dovlatova
Marc Evans
Helen Monicque Hale
Joseph Haynes
Daniel Howard
Andy Isaacs
Tracy Jones
Edward Jones
Clare Elizabeth Jones
Peter Rweyongeza Kaiza
Murray Leader
Stefanie Luthman
Rebecca Laura Manning
Mark Mullan
Ewelina Anna Pasieka
Katherine Pegler
Timothy Smith
James Leslie Twist
Matthew Nigel Whitfield
James Winfield
Module 4 (Linear models)
Daniel Ayoubkhani
James Barr
Stephen Blackwell
Timothy Butler
Gary Cottrill
Samuel Dickinson
Helen Dodsworth
Sariyya Dovlatova
Marc Evans
Bibi Zaheda Gurreeboo
Joseph Haynes
Daniel Howard
Andy Isaacs
Barbara Jenkins
Marianne Johnstone
Gyantee Jugoo
Hannah Louise Kershaw
Stefanie Luthman
Dookhy Manvashi Devi
Hema Devi Maywah
Mark Mullan
Kamla Devi
Narayen-Jhummun
Fatha Mahomed Noorbee
Catherine Norris
Roshnee Moheeputh
Nunkoo
Kathleen M O’Reilly
Ewelina Anna Pasieka
Katherine Pegler
Rhohinne Devi Pemsing
Daniel Christopher Perry
Mark Russell
James Winfield
Kwok Wing Yuen
Module 5 (Further
probability and inference)
James Barr
Stephen Blackwell
Andre Blanchard
Sariyya Dovlatova
Christopher John Edge
K A Prashan Madushanka
Jayatissa
Gyantee Jugoo
Hannah Louise Kershaw
Dookhy Manvashi Devi
Mark Mullan
Kamla Devi NarayenJhummun
Rhohinne Devi Pemsing
Bhavna Ramjus
Christopher Malcolm
Richards
Module 6 (Further
applications of statistics)
Stephen Blackwell
Andre Blanchard
Sariyya Dovlatova
Christopher John Edge
Andrew James Hartridge
Azhar Hasham
Andy Isaacs
Hannah Louise Kershaw
Catherine Norris
Ewelina Anna Pasieka
Sonal Patel
Daniel Christopher Perry
Christopher Malcolm
Richards
Mark Russell
Kwok Wing Yuen
Module 7 (Time series and
index numbers)
Sarah Adams
Anwen Brown
Alison Colquhoun
David Dawson
Julie Marie Harrison
Andrew James Hartridge
Sonal Patel
William Rose
Kwok Wing Yuen
Module 8 (Survey
sampling and estimation)
Sarah Adams
Robert Alan Betts
Anwen Brown
Mark S Chambers
Alison Colquhoun
David Dawson
Julie Marie Harrison
Azhar Hasham
Ceri James
Marija Jaroslavskaja
Marianne Johnstone
Oluwatosin O Kuti
Mark Mullan
Benjamin Kariuki Mwangi
Angie Osborn
Daniel Christopher Perry
Milena Reinfeld
Samantha Roe
William Rose
Ian Scott
Completed Higher
Certificate
Daniel Ayoubkhani *d
Stephen Blackwell
Anwen Brown *c
Timothy Butler *d
Alison Colquhoun *c
Gary Cottrill*c
David Dawson *d
Christopher John Edge *c
Marc Evans*c
Julie Marie Harrison
Andrew James Hartridge *c
Joseph Haynes
Hannah Louise Kershaw
Mark Mullan *c
Benjamin Kariuki Mwangi *c
Katherine Pegler *c
William Rose
Kwok Wing Yuen
Bhavna Ramjus
Graduate Diploma
Module 1 (Probability
distributions)
Raymond Bernard
Carragher
Thomas Robert Charles
Chun Hong Gan
Zoe Susannah Jane Hoare
James David Holloway
Jeffrey Howard
Fernando Martin Martin
Christopher John Padbury
Virag Patel
Eshan Romjon
Adam Peter Wagner
Graham Warren
Module 2 (Statistical
inference)
Raymond Bernard
Carragher
Thomas Robert Charles
Andrew Charles William
Garratt
James David Holloway
Jeffrey Howard
Graham Warren
Module 3 (Stochastic
processes and time series)
Colin Peter Digby Birch
Raymond Bernard
Carragher
Mun Cheong Alan Cheong
Peter Thomas Grahame
James David Holloway
Graham Warren
Module 4 (Modelling
experimental data)
Chun Hong Gan
Paul Aled Gilbert
James David Holloway
Fernando Martin Martin
Virag Patel
Eshan Romjon
Graham Warren
Module 5 (Topics in
applied statistics)
Chun Hong Gan
Paul Aled Gilbert
James David Holloway
Stefania Paladini
Gabriel Sertsou
Graham Warren
Completed Graduate
Diploma
Chun Hong Ga *c
Paul Aled Gilber *d
Peter Thomas Grahame *c
James David Holloway *d
Gabriel Sertsou
Graham Warren *c
(*c – credit, *d – distinction)
4 October 2011
RSS NEWS
RSS EXAMINATIONS IN 2012
The examinations in 2012 will be held on 22, 23 and 24 May according to the following timetable.
Papers for the Ordinary Certificate and the Graduate Diploma are 3 hours long. Morning papers will generally be from 9:30am to
12.30pm and afternoon papers generally from 2pm to 5pm.
Papers for the modules of the Higher Certificate are 1.5 hours long. There are eight modules, examined over two days. Each day has a
morning session and an afternoon session, and two module papers will be contained in each session. Morning sessions will generally
be from 9.30am to approximately 12.30pm and afternoon sessions generally from 2pm to approximately 5pm; the finishing times of
the sessions are approximate because examination centres are likely to allow a short break, perhaps 10 to 15 minutes, between the
first module and the second in each session.
In addition, there may be variations in times of papers and sessions at centres outside the UK because of local circumstances.
Detailed starting times for each paper will be advised to candidates when they receive their examination entry certificates.
Ordinary Certificate
Tuesday 22 May 2012
Wednesday 23 May 2012
Thursday 24 May 2012
am
Higher Certificate
No papers on Tuesday morning
pm
Module 1
am
Module 2
Module 3
Modules 1 and 2
Module 1
pm
Modules 5 and 7
Module 2
am
Modules 3 and 4
Module 4
pm
Modules 6 and 8
Module 5
PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATIONS
IN HONG KONG
For the last ten years, professional statistics examinations in Hong Kong have been run
under the auspices of the Hong Kong Statistical Society (HKSS). This followed a formal
agreement between RSS and HKSS. The aim was that HKSS could use its local
knowledge to expand the operation. The HKSS examinations have the same structure
of Ordinary Certificate, Higher Certificate and Graduate Diploma as our own, and are
accredited by us as being equivalent in standard.
In 2002, the entire content of the HKSS examinations was supplied by RSS examiners.
From 2004, the HKSS papers at Ordinary and Higher Certificate level have been
translated into Chinese and candidates can answer in Chinese if they wish. All of the
additional assessment material created by HKSS is moderated by RSS external
examiners to ensure that the accreditation of equivalent standards can be maintained.
The pass list for HKSS candidates in the May 2011 examinations is as follows. There
are also several HKSS candidates who have successfully completed some of the
modules in the Higher Certificate or Graduate Diploma and, it is hoped, will
successfully complete the entire qualification in future years.
Completed Higher Certificate
PROFESSIONAL
AWARDS
The following professional awards
have been made:
CStat
David Richard Caplan
GradStat
Arzu Worland
Jonesmus Mutua Wambua
Ted Fernandez
Nicolas Capian
Huw Griffith Angle
Gema Yvonne Sylvestre Garcia
Caroline Kerr Pyke
Peter Knizat
Munyaradzi Dimairo
Completed Graduate Diploma
So Tsz kin (credit)
Choy Kwok Wai
Hon Pok Man (distinction)
Chan Kwok Wai (credit)
Fung pak Hey Henry (distinction)
Tang Chak Ho
Lui Wang Ho
Wong Sau Ming
Ngan Kiu Wai
Graduate Diploma
NZSA NEWSLETTER
The latest edition of the NZSA
newsletter is now available at
http://stats.org.nz/Newsletter73/
index.htm.
October 2011 5
RSS NEWS
EDUCATION
compiled by Catharine
Darnton and John Marriott
Speech by the Secretary of
State for Education
In a speech given at the Royal Society on
29 June, Michael Gove underlined the
importance of maths and science education, and said that England should aim to
have the vast majority of students studying some form of maths until 18 within
the next decade. He suggested more
emphasis on pre-algebra in primary
schools, with the removal of the requirement to teach data handling. However, he
proposed a greater emphasis on statistics
at GCSE level, suggesting students should
understand conditional probability, the
normal distribution and randomness. The
full text can be found at www.education.
gov.uk/inthenews/speeches.
Mathematics Taskforce report
The recommendation by the Independent
Mathematics Taskforce, chaired by Carol
Vorderman, that all young people should
continue to study mathematics after the
age of 16 has been warmly welcomed by
the RSS. The RSS also endorsed the
Taskforce proposal to give numbers work
a bigger role in primary schools outside
formal mathematics teaching.
Martin Dougherty, the Society’s executive director, said ‘Statistical know-how is
critical in all areas of modern life, so we
have to improve opportunities to learn to
use stats in a wide range of subjects in the
national curriculum, above and beyond
the formal mathematics curriculum. We
welcome the suggestions in the Taskforce
report for teaching statistics at more technically challenging levels, as well as
improving understanding of the concepts
of risk and probability among all school
children.’
Some other key recommendations
from the report are:
u an end to key stage 2 national testing
u GCSE Mathematics to be a double
award
u no changes to AS and A levels in the
short term.
The full report can be found at
http://bit.ly/oCBt5G.
6 October 2011
Evaluating mathematics
pathways
The final report of this project, which was
first established by the Qualifications and
Curriculum Authority in 2005, has been
published.
The
Pathways
Project
comprised two phases. In Phase 1 proposals for new pilot qualifications in
mathematics at GCSE and A level were
developed during 2005-2006. Phase 2
saw the development and piloting of new
qualifications by two awarding bodies,
AQA and OCR, from 2006-2010. The
report identifies the following as continuing challenges:
u transition at 16
u algebra
u recruitment to GCE.
It also makes four recommendations:
u use of mathematics qualifications to be
adopted
u effective CPD to be provided for
curriculum leaders on how to design
learning pathways, relevant curricula and
engaging pedagogy
u high attaining students to develop
greater facility with algebra by age 16
u there should be further scrutiny of qualifications which combines analyses of
assessment design with careful examination of students’ responses, to give a far
better indication of the extent to which
assessments are measuring what they
purport to assess.
RSS round tables
Building on the findings of the Advisory
Committee on Mathematics Education
(ACME) mathematical needs research and
hot on the heels of the taskforce report, in
September the Society organised two
round tables with learned societies and
others representing disciplines in which
statistics is taught and used in the sciences
and the social sciences.
One round table focused on the
sciences and asked ‘Do science and engineering graduates have the stats
grounding they need?’ and the other, on
the social sciences, asked ‘How much
quantitative understanding do social
sciences and humanities undergraduates
need?’
Each of these two events considered
current issues and ideas on ‘what next?’
including looking at what a post-16
curriculum model, which fully reflects the
interdisciplinary and quantitative nature of
modern sciences and social sciences and
meets the needs of HE and business and
industry, actually looks like.
Ideas from these round tables will feed
into a wider ‘statistical education landscape’ meeting in mid-October which will
take a close look at RSS lines in relation to
the national curriculum review and also
more fully open the debate around the
future post-16 curriculum.
Teaching Agency
The Teaching Agency is a new government executive agency that will be
responsible for ensuring the supply of high
quality teachers and training and for
teacher regulation. It will open next April
and take on some key functions currently
carried out by the Training and
Development Agency for Schools, the
General Teaching Council for England, the
Children’s
Workforce
Development
Council and the Qualifications and
Curriculum Development Agency.
International Commission on
Mathematical Instruction (ICMI)
All the topic study groups (TSGs) of ICME12 have launched their call for
contributions. The TSGs are allotted four
blocks of 1h 30m during the congress and
cover 37 different topics of mathematics
education, including one focussing on the
teaching and learning of probability and
another on statistics. The deadline for
online submissions is 1 November. All calls
for contributions are available on the
ICME-12 webpage www.icme12.org.
IASE 2011
A successful 7th IASE satellite conference
took place in Malahide in August.
Delegates from a large number of countries
met to discuss papers around the theme of
statistics education and outreach.
Interested readers can view the conference
programme and paper abstracts by visiting
www.conkerstatistics.co.uk/iase and selecting the ‘Downloads’ tab. Details of the
proceedings of this conference will be
reported in this column when they become
available later this year.
Culture of being a mathematician
As part of the National HE STEM
Programme, the Mathematical Sciences HE
Curriculum Innovation Project has funded
a project to produce teaching materials on
‘the culture of being a mathematician’. If
any readers think they would like to assist
this project by volunteering to be interviewed they should contact Tony Mann
(A.Mann@gre.ac.uk) for more information.
Send your views, news and contributions to
Catharine Darnton,
C.Darnton@gillotts.oxon.sch.uk, for
statistics in secondary education and
John Marriott, john.marriot@rsscse.org.uk,
for statistics in tertiary education.
RSS NEWS
Examinations agreement with
Japanese Statistical Society
T
he Society has reached an agreement
to license the Higher Certificate
Examinations to the Japanese
Statistical Society (JSS) from 2012. The
agreement was signed at the ISI congress in
Dublin in August.
The agreement will provide for the RSS
examinations to be offered in both English
and Japanese to local candidates registered with the JSS.
Yasuto Yoshizoe, past president of the
JSS who signed the contract on behalf of
the Japanese Society, said ‘The JSS is
eagerly looking forward to starting the joint
examinations with the RSS. In addition to
the JSS Certificate, which is conducted in
Japanese, the RSS exam will give students
and professional statisticians a better
chance to be appreciated in Japan’.
Roeland Beerten, our director of
education and professional affairs, said
‘The RSS very much welcomes this agreement with the JSS, which further extends
the international recognition of our exam-
Roeland Beerten and Yasuto Yoshizoe signed the contract in Dublin
inations as a benchmark qualification for
the statistical profession. We are looking
forward to working with our colleagues at
the JSS to implement the examinations for
the first time in May 2012.’
NEW FELLOWS
NEWS OF FELLOWS
The following have been elected as fellows of the Society:
Ahma Abdulrhman
Almutlg
Lucy Pollyanna Goldsmith
Robert Mastrodomenico
Michael Peter Grayer
Rachel Beatrice Melinek
Cherie Armour
Robert Mark Hamer
Gillian Bell
Ruben Hermans
Abdulrafiu Babatunde
Odunuga
Stephen Patrick Blythe
Simon Hodge
Oladimeji Opawole
June Bowman
David Michael Hughes
Gianluca Rosso
Matthew William Burton
Kieran John Hughes
Rasiah Thayakaran
Huseyin Cakal
Robert Huw Jones
Athanasios Theofilatos
Chibisi Chima-Okereke
Reshma Kalutay
David Thomson
Spencer Davies
Philip Edward Kay
Imande Michael Tyolumun
Sarah Davis
Robin Kinsman
Welcome Mkululi Wami
Christopher Lord
Anthony Siu Wo Wong
Katy Ferguson
The certificates issued by the JSS to
successful candidates for the Higher
Certificate will be endorsed by the RSS
and fully recognised as of a standard
equivalent to those issued by the RSS. n
COUNCIL BALLOT REMINDER
Fellows were sent Council ballot voting forms with August’s RSS NEWS.
They are reminded to post their signed forms back to Errol Street as soon as
possible. These must be received in the office by 12 October.
Kerenza Hood as been awarded a
Leading Wales award for leadership
in the public sector.
Paul McNicholas has received an
Early Researcher award from the
Ontario Ministry of Research and
Innovation. These prestigious
awards are given to researchers in
the first five years of their
independent academic careers.
Calyampudi R Rao has been
awarded an honorary degree of
Doctor of Science by the University
of Colombo, Sri Lanka. This is his
34th honorary degree.
DEATHS
It is with regret that we have to
report the death of:
John Richard Bradley
John Heads
October 2011 7
RSS NEWS
NOMINATIONS FOR SECTION COMMITTEES 2012
General Applications Section
In accordance with the regulations of the section, the following are recommended by the section committee as members of the
committee for the 2012 session:
Vic Barnett (chair)
*Mark Briers
John Marriott (vice chair)
Mario Cortina Borja
Daphne Kounali (meetings secretary) Paul Clarke
Marta Garcia-Finana *Pablo Matoes
*Marco Geraci
*Angela Noufaily
*Sarah Lewis
Keming Yu
Unless alternative nominations are received by the theme manager for sections (p.gentry@rss.org.uk) before Thursday 6 October,
these persons will be declared elected at the annual general meeting of the section on Thursday 20 October.
Official Statistics Section
In accordance with the regulations of the section, the following are recommended by the section committee as members of the
committee for the 2012 session:
James Brown (chair)
Michael Baxter (vice chair)
Deborah Aniyeloye (secretary)
Fred Johnson (meetings secretary)
Hasan Al-Madfai
*Alison Cousley
*Alison Fisher
*Mark Fransham
Richard Laux
*David Matz
Sumit Rahman
Philip Turnbull
Unless alternative nominations are received by the theme manager for sections (p.gentry@rss.org.uk) before Tuesday 4 October,
these persons will be declared elected at the annual general meeting of the section on Tuesday 18 October.
Quality Improvement Section
In accordance with the regulations of the section, the following are recommended by the section committee as members of the
committee for the 2012 session:
Marta Haworth (chair)
Roland Caulcutt (vice chair)
Carolyn Craggs (secretary)
Sharon Wheeler (meetings secretary) John Disney
Tony Bendell
*Martin Gibson
Shirley Coleman
Sarah Green
*Nigel Marriott
2 vacancies
Unless alternative nominations are received by the theme manager for sections (p.gentry@rss.org.uk) before Thursday 27 October,
these persons will be declared elected at the annual general meeting of the section on Thursday 10 November.
Research Section
In accordance with the regulations of the section, the following are recommended by the section committee as members of the
committee for the 2012 session:
*Alastair Young (chair)
Chris Jones (vice chair)
Piotr Fryzlewicz (secretary)
John Aston (meetings secretary)
Nicolai Meinshausen (associate editor for discussion papers)
Niall Adams
*Mark Girolami
Scott Sisson
Paul Fearnhead
*John Kent
Simon Wood
Wally Gilks
*Richard Nickl
Unless alternative nominations are received by the theme manager for sections (p.gentry@rss.org.uk) before Wednesday 5 October,
these persons will be declared elected at the annual general meeting of the section on Wednesday 19 October.
Social Statistics Section
In accordance with the regulations of the section, the following are recommended by the section committee as members of the
committee for the 2012 session:
Jouni Kuha (chair)
Richard Laux (vice chair)
Alison Walker (secretary)
Tarani Chandola (meetings secretary) Antony Fielding
Nick Allum
Chris Kershaw
Gabi Durrant
Charles Lound
*David Robinson
Patrick Sturgis
Joel Williams
Unless alternative nominations are received by the theme manager for sections (p.gentry@rss.org.uk) before Tuesday 22 November,
these persons will be declared elected at the annual general meeting of the section on Tuesday 6 December.
*new member
8 October 2011
MEETINGS & EVENTS
Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London, EC1Y 8LX
Tel: 020 7638 8998 www.rss.org.uk
October and November Ordinary Meetings
The next Society Ordinary Meetings will take place on Wednesday 19 October and Wednesday 16 November.
Topics are ‘Catching up faster by switching sooner: a predictive approach to adaptive estimation with an
application to the Akaike information criterion – Bayesian information criterion dilemma’ on 19 October and
‘Optimum design of experiments for statistical inference’ on 16 November. Full details are given over the page.
Fellows unable to attend the meetings are welcome to submit written comments on the papers. For the
19 October meeting contributions should be submitted before 2 November; if submitted before 19 October they
may be read during the meeting. For the 16 November meeting contributions should be submitted before
30 November; if submitted before 16 November they may be read during the meeting. All such contributions
must be no longer than 400 words and should be submitted to Abdel Khairoun (journal@rss.org.uk).
Following each meeting there will be a short wine reception which is open to all – it would be helpful for catering
purposes if those planning to attend would email events@rss.org.uk.
A definitive copy of both papers can be downloaded from www.rss.org.uk/preprints.
RSS 2012 conference
The Society’s annual international conference returns in September
2012 with its familiar mix of high-profile international plenary
speakers, invited and contributed presentations, poster sessions, short
courses and workshops, plus a busy social and networking
programme.
Added to this mix will be an expanded programme of professional
development tutorials and workshops which should appeal to a broad
spectrum of professional statisticians, researchers and the wider user
community.
The conference will be held 3–6 September and the venue will be the
Telford International Centre in Shropshire.
Suggestions and proposals are currently welcomed for topics for
invited sessions, short courses, workshops and tutorial sessions –
contact Paul Gentry at the Society’s offices (conference@rss.org.uk).
Abstract submission will open later this year.
getstats celebrates
first anniversary
The Society’s getstats campaign will
mark its first anniversary on
20 October with a light-hearted
evening of debate and argument on
the topic of ‘Playing with Numbers:
do stats help or hinder in sport?’.
Panellists will include Ben Clissitt
(head of sport, Daily Telegraph),
Claire Taylor (England cricketer), Lord
David Triesman (former chair Football
Association), Ian McHale (sports
statistician, Salford University) and
Beverley Hale (Chichester Centre of
Applied Sport and Exercise Science).
Full details can be found on the Diary
page.
OCTOBER 2011
For full details and abstracts of all meetings and events see
the RSS website: www.rss.org.uk/events
MEETINGS
For more information visit the RSSeNews events board: www.rssenews.org.uk
or the RSS website: www.rss.org.uk/events
ORDINARY MEETINGS
SECTIONS
Wednesday 19 October, 5pm at the RSS
(tea and coffee from 4.30pm)
For all section and study group
meetings held at the RSS
pre-registration is recommended
(unless otherwise stated).
Register by email: events@rss.org.uk
or phone 020 7638 8998
TIM VAN ERVEN, PETER GRÜNWALD and
STEVEN DE ROOIJ
(Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica,
Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
Catching up faster by switching sooner:
a predictive approach to adaptive
estimation with an application to the
Akaike information criterion – Bayesian
information criterion dilemma
Prediction and estimation based on Bayesian
model selection and model averaging, and
derived methods such as BIC, do not always
converge at the fastest possible rate. The
speakers explain what can go wrong and
modify the Bayes predictive distribution to
achieve the minimax cumulative risk in
general non-parametric settings with
unknown underlying degree of smoothness.
Wednesday 16 November, 5pm at the
RSS (tea and coffee from 4.30pm)
STEVEN G GILMOUR (University of
Southampton)
LUZIA A TRINCA
(Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu,
Brazil)
Optimum design of experiments for
statistical inference
Modified optimality criteria are defined,
which correctly reflect the utility of designs
with respect to some common types of
inference. For fractional factorial and
response surface experiments, the designs
obtained are quite different from those
which are optimal under the standard
criteria. Thus, a compromise between the
new criteria and others is likely to be more
relevant to many practical situations.
Compound criteria are developed and are
applied to fractional factorial and response
surface experiments from the food industry.
All are welcome. These meetings are
organised by the Research Section.
These events are free but
pre-registration is required. Email
events@rss.org.uk
Meeting contact: Abdel Khairoun
journal@rss.org.uk
EVENTS: OCTOBER–NOVEMBER 2011
GENERAL APPLICATIONS
Thursday 20 October, 2–5pm at the RSS
(tea/coffee at 3.20pm)
Statistics in veterinary science
WILLIAM BROWNE (University of Bristol)
It shouldn’t happen to a vet’s data –
the use of statistics in veterinary science
MARTIN GREEN (University of
Nottingham)
What do vets think? Elicitation of
clinical beliefs in veterinary medicine
CHRISTL DONNELLY
(Imperial College, London)
Science and policy – badger culling to
control Bovine TB
THEODORE KYPRAIOS
(University of Nottingham)
Real-time risk-prediction for emerging
infectious diseases
This event is free but pre-registration is
encouraged. Email events@rss.org.uk
Meeting contact: William Browne
(frwjb@bristol.ac.uk)
The meeting will be preceded by the GAS
AGM (1.45pm).
Genetic epidemiology is a rapidly
developing field within medical science.
High-throughput genetic technologies
applied to epidemiological collections
have enabled large panels of genetic
variations, densely covering the whole of
the human genome, to be tested for
association with disease risk. Such genome
wide association studies have proved to be
successful,
identifying
many
well
replicated associations. However, as these
identified genetic variants are frequently
associated with modest changes in disease
risk, attention is now turning to the
development and implementation of
multivariate risk prediction models.
The meeting will focus on this research
including advances and challenges in the
statistical methods required to develop
and apply multivariate risk prediction
models in the diagnostic and prognostic
management of complex diseases.
The morning workshop (aimed at career
young statisticians) will introduce issues
and terminology in statistical genetics. It
will be delivered by Jenny Barrett and
Mark Iles.
This event is free but pre-registration is
encouraged.
Meeting contacts: Dawn Teare, Sara
Hilditch, Nuala Sheehan
(rss.sheffield@gmail.com)
QUALITY IMPROVEMENT
Thursday 10 November, 2–5pm at the RSS
Measurement error
MEDICAL
Joint meeting with the Sheffield local
group and the Young Statisticians
Section
Wednesday 19 October, 10am–1pm
Introductory workshop, 2–5pm Risk
prediction meeting, at the Hicks Building,
University of Sheffield (tea/coffee)
What is measurement error? How much
does it cost your organisation in customer
complaints, rejects and re-works each day?
This event focuses on enhancing
participants’ knowledge of measurement
errors, providing the opportunity to listen
and talk to experts in the field and help to
find practical solutions for their
organisations.
CATHRYN LEWIS (King’s College London)
DAVID BALDING
(University College London)
DAVID EVANS (University of Bristol)
JENNIFER BARRETT and MARK ILES
(University of Leeds)
Risk prediction modelling in genetic
epidemiology and Introductory
workshop on statistical genetics
Roland Caulcutt, an experienced business
expert, will explain the various approaches
to measurement error applied in different
industries. Case studies from different
industries
will
be
presented
by
practitioners. Then there will be a
discussion with the experts.
Pre-registration with payment is
required.
Registration charges
Student, EDA and retired fellows – £25;
CStats/GradStats/MIS/FIS – £30; RSS
fellows – £35; linked associates, student
members, section members – £45; none
of the above – £65
Meeting contact: Carolyn Craggs
(carolyn.craggs@tiscali.co.uk)
(JOINTLY WITH CQI)
Thursday 10 November, 6pm at the RSS
(refreshments from 5pm)
John Loxham lecture: in pursit of
excellence
COLIN HERRON (Manufacturing and
productivity manager, One North East)
SOCIAL STATISTICS
Tuesday 11 October, 11am–4pm at the
RSS (lunch included)
MARGARET BLAKE, MICHELLE GRAY,
STEVEN HOPE and GERRY NICOLAAS
(National Centre for Social Research)
PAMELA CAMPANELLI (independent
survey research consultant)
PETER LYNN and ANNETTE JÃCKLE (ISER,
University of Essex)
Mode effects on survey measurement
Registration charges
Student, EDA and retired fellows – £33;
CStats/GradStats – £36; RSS fellows –
£40; RSS members – £55; non RSS
members – £70
Meeting contact: conference@rss.org.uk
Tuesday 1 November, 5pm at the RSS
(tea/coffee from 4.30pm)
KIRSTIN MITCHELL and
GEORGE PLOUBIDIS (London School of
Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Developing a measure of sexual
function for community surveys
Attendance is free. Registration is
required. Contact: meetings@rss.org.uk
JOINT MEETING WITH THE SOCIAL
RESEARCH ASSOCIATION
Tuesday 8 November, 5-7pm at the RSS,
followed by a wine reception
Chair: JIL MATHESON (ONS)
NEVILLE DAVIES
(RSS Centre for Statistical Education)
RICHARD ALLDRITT (Head of assessment
and member of UKSA board)
MIKE HOUGH (Birkbeck College)
The 2011 Cathie Marsh Memorial
Lecture – Why do the media, the
public and politicians abuse and
misunderstand statistics?
Statisticians and social researchers too
often find their findings misreported and
misused. The charge is often made that
too many people in the UK are
innumerate. This limits the reporting of
social issues and people’s understanding of
the social world with attendant
implications for policy making.
Speakers will explore the challenges faced
and progress being made by producers of
statistics in reaching the public as well as
professional users of statistics. The
implications for education and the
professional social research and statistics
community will also be discussed.
This meeting is free but places are
limited and pre-registration is required.
Meeting contact: meetings@rss.org.uk
LOCAL GROUPS
EDINBURGH
Tuesday 11 October, 6pm at ICMS, 15
South College Street, Edinburgh EH8 9AA.
(tea 5.30pm)
WEST MIDLANDS
Joint meeting with
Statisticians Section
the
Young
Thursday 13 October, 4-5pm at A1.01,
Statistics Department, Zeeman Building,
University of Warwick (tea 3:30pm)
HUW WILLIAMS (industrial applied
mathematician)
Remarks on engineering applications of
mathematical science
This talk aims to show how we can use
centuries of prior knowledge together
with mathematics and statistics to solve
engineering problems but still bring our
own perspective on dealing with
uncertainty.
Meeting contact: Peter Kimani
(peter.k-u.kimani@warwick.ac.uk)
STUDY GROUPS
CENSUS
Joint meeting with the Statistics User
Forum and the Office for National
Statistics
Friday 21 October, 10am–4.30pm at the
RSS (lunch and tea/coffee)
Looking ‘Beyond 2011’
The UK Statistics Authority set up the
Beyond 2011 project to examine models
for meeting future user needs for census
type data. This meeting represents a first
opportunity for a broad community of
users and stakeholders to hear about the
Beyond 2011 programme and the initial
work being undertaken by ONS.
There is no charge for this event. To
register, contact events@rss.org.uk
SIX SIGMA
Joint meeting with the
Standards Institute (BSI)
British
Banknotes can be seized from crime
scenes as evidence of illicit drug use/
dealing. MSA, an analytical chemistry
company, has developed a technique to
analyse the levels of drugs on banknotes.
For each note tested, data are available on
the peak area for cocaine. Some of the
principles involved in analysing these data
will be introduced.
Tuesday 4 October, 2.30–3.45pm at the
RSS (followed by a wine reception)
Introducing the new international
standard for Six Sigma
The new international standard for Six
Sigma will be introduced at this event. The
Six Sigma methodology has been in use
for many years in top global organisations
where it is a key means of reducing costs
and increasing quality. The new
international standard (ISO 13053) has
been written by global Six Sigma experts
and is designed to clarify the methodology
and standardise its adoption.
Attendance is free. Registration is
required.
Meeting contact: Adam Butler
(adam@bioss.ac.uk)
Meeting
contact:
James
(James.Berry@bsigroup.com)
COLIN AITKEN and AMY WILSON (School
of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh)
Evaluation of evidence relating to
traces of cocaine on banknotes
Berry
EVENTS: OCTOBER – NOVEMBER 2011
Conference organisers may wish to consider a full advert in the advertising section of RSS NEWS or
DIARY
UK
Cass short courses
Courses in applied social surveys
Questionnaire design
3-4 October, Cardiff
10-11 November, Belfast
Survey data analysis I: introducing
descriptive and inferential statistics
23-25 November, Southampton
Email: cass@southampton.ac.uk
www.s3ri.soton.ac.uk/cass/
programme.php
Clinical trials methodology
conference 2011
4–5 October
Bristol
www.methodologyhubs.mrc.ac.uk/
An introduction to SPSS syntax
27-28 October
University of York
Half-day parallel workshop (27
October am): An introduction to
handling hospital episode statistics
(with SPSS)
a banner advert on the RSSeNEWS website
Contact Debra Olleveant advertising@rss.org.uk for details.
* Denotes new entry since the last issue.
Half-day parallel workshop (27
October pm): Correlation and
regression in SPSS. Analysis of
contingency tables in R
SPSS users one-day meeting
(28 October)
Contact: Peter Watson
Email: peter.watson@
mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk
www.spssusers.co.uk/Events/2011/
* RSS 2012 international
conference
3–6 September
Telford International Centre
Shropshire
Contact: Paul Gentry
Email: conference@rss.org.uk
* Missing data in mental health
studies
30 November
Cambridge
Contact: MRC BSU Cambridge
www.mrc-bsu.coam.ac.uk/
misscourse/
11th Islamic countries
conference on statistical sciences
(ICCS-11)
18–21 December
Amman, Jordan
Contact: Jamil Hamdan
Email: jameel@dos.gov.jo
www.iccs11.isoss.net/
* Design and analysis of
experiments – industry day
30 November
Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge
Email: doe@southampton.ac.uk
www.newton.ac.uk/programmes/
DAE/ws.html
getstats celebrates
Thursday 20 October, 6–7.30pm at the RSS
(followed by a reception)
Playing with numbers: do stats help
or hinder in sport?
You can’t do or watch sport without stats. Goals,
speed, comparative performance, transfer value,
energy output: without numbers sport goes
nowhere.
But are we getting the most out of the numbers
or have the analysts done all that can possibly be
done? Do stats get in the way of aesthetic
appreciation? How come fans, and gamblers, do
sophisticated probability analyses at the stadium
or in the betting shop and then switch off at
home or school?
Promoted by getstats, the RSS campaign to boost
our understanding of numbers, this is going to be
a light-hearted evening of debate and argument.
Join us in considering how players, managers and
commentators use sports data. (Details of quiz
panellists on the cover of this meetings
supplement.)
Meeting contact: Debra Hurcomb
(D.Hurcomb@rss.org.uk)
This meeting is free but pre-registration
is required.
EVENTS: OCTOBER–NOVEMBER 2011
NON-UK
ISBA 2012 world meeting
25–29 June 2012
Kyoto, Japan
www2.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~isba2012/
International statistical ecology
conference 2012
3–6 July 2012
Oslo
Contact: Geir Storvik
Email: geirs@math.uio.no)
http://bit.ly/jJV9r6
8th world congress in probability
and statistics
9–14 July 2012
Istanbul
www.worldcong2012.org
* International Society for
Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) regional
meeting and international
workshop/conference on
Bayesian theory and applications
(IWCBTA)
6-10 January 2013
Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi,
India
Contact: S K Upadhyay
Email: iwebta.sku@gmail.com
www.bhu.ac.in/isba/
Contacts
Sections
Business & Industrial Liz Pilling
(Elizabeth.Pilling@astrazeneca.com)
Environmental Statistics Diana
Cole (d.j.cole@kent.ac.uk)
General Applications
Paul Hewson (paul.hewson@plymouth.ac.uk)
Medical Gordon Taylor
(G.J.Taylor@bath.ac.uk)
Official Statistics Liz Urie
(Liz.Urie@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk)
Quality Improvement
Carolyn Craggs
(carolyn.craggs@tiscali.co.uk)
Research Piotr Fryzlewicz
(P.Fryzlewicz@lse.ac.uk)
Social Statistics Tony Fielding
(A.Fielding@bham.ac.uk)
Statistical Computing
Paul Taylor (p.c.taylor@herts.ac.uk)
Young Statisticians
Kim Kavanagh
(kim.kavanagh@strath.ac.uk)
Study groups
Bioinformatics Carlo Berzuini
(C.R.Berzuini@
statslab.cam.ac.uk)
Census Dave Martin
(D.J.Martin@soton.ac.uk)
History Eileen Magnello
(meileenmagnello@aol.com)
Primary Health Care
Maurice Marchant
(Maurice.Marchant@esdwpct.nhs.uk)
Six Sigma Tony Bendell
(anthony.bendell@yahoo.co.uk)
Local groups
Avon Silvia Liverani (s.liverani@bristol.ac.uk)
East Kent Debbie Kraus
(debbie.kraus@pfizer.com)
East Midlands Chris Brignell
(chris.brignell@nottingham.ac.uk)
Edinburgh Adam Butler
(adam@bioss.sari.ac.uk)
Glasgow Ben Torsney
(bent@stats.gla.ac.uk)
Highlands Malcolm Hall
(M.Hall@MARLAB.AC.UK)
Lancashire Matthew Sperrin
(m.sperrin@lancaster.ac.uk)
Leeds/Bradford Sarah Fleming
(S.J.Fleming@leeds.ac.uk)
Manchester John Logsdon
(secretary@rss-manchester.org)
Merseyside Laura Bonnett
(L.J.Bonnett@liverpool.ac.uk)
North East Phil Ansell
(psansell@gmail.com)
Northern Ireland Alan Gordon
(Alan.Gordon@afbini.gov.uk)
Oxford Jemma Hopewell
(jemma.hopewell@ctsu.ox.ac.uk)
Reading Phillippa Spencer
(pspencer@mail.dstl.gov.uk)
Sheffield Sara Hilditch
(rss.sheffield@gmail.com)
South Wales Stuart Neil
(stuart.neil@wales.gsi.gov.uk)
South West John Eales (j.Eales@plymouth.ac.uk)
West Midlands Peter Kimani
(Peter.K-U.Kimani@warwick.ac.uk)
York Martin Bland
(mb55@york.ac.uk)
RSS NEWS
RSS makes impact in Dublin
T
he Society took advantage of the
close proximity of this year’s ISI
congress in Dublin to take exhibition
space to promote its activities and services. Staff members Roeland Beerten
(director, professional affairs), Andrew
Garratt (press and public affairs manager),
Paul Gentry (meetings and conferences
manager) and Anna Mair (membership
manager) were joined on the stand by
honorary officer Mary Sweetland.
The stand was visited by about 160
attendees from over 40 different countries
during the course of the congress with
areas of interest including our examinations, chartered status, professional
development and of course Significance.
A number of visitors took advantage of a
special offer on membership and joined
the Society.
The ISI programme also included a
Society read paper, ‘Vignettes and health
systems responsiveness in cross-country
comparative analyses’ presented by Nigel
Rice and Peter Smith, which generated
much discussion. The paper was followed
Paul Gentry, Roeland Beerten and Anna Mair on the RSS stand at the ISI Congress in
Dublin
by a reception hosted by the director
general of CSO (Central Statistical Office)
Ireland.
n At the preceding week’s IASE conference Andrew Garratt gave a presentation
on the getstats campaign.
GETSTATS BULLETIN
This is the first of a regular series of bulletins about the work of getstats, the campaign to boost national numeracy and
quantitative understanding. Developed and run by the RSS, with financial support from the Nuffield Foundation, getstats is
working with the media, MPs, professional groups, firms and a variety of organisations to further the cause of a ‘better-numbered
Britain’.
We will keep you posted about events – for example we are putting on a late October debate at Errol Street on the aesthetics of
sport, inviting panellists to debate whether numbers help or hinder appreciation of performance on (and off) the field of play.
We’re in talks with the National Governors’ Association about equipping lay school governors with tools and understanding –
better to grasp pupil performance, to mount surveys of parents and the local area, to put league table results in context. Some of
you will hold or will have held governor posts. We’d find it useful to get your sense of what governors need to know and
specifically how they might be helped to master the quantities of schooling. We’re thinking of a short pamphlet that might go in
governors’ induction packs; helping the NGA establish a network of ‘quantifiers’ who can help governing bodies understand the
data coming their way. Please let us have your thoughts (d.walker@rss.org.uk).
On the autumn agenda are meetings in parliament with the double aim of alerting MPs and peers to our work and finding ways in
which their own ‘quantitative capacity’ might be improved. Some of you may have been in touch with your constituency MPs
about matters statistical. It would be good to know – as we go about building a network of interested politicians.
Would any of you fancy helping improve British journalism? After the ferment of the News of the World story, there’s a strong
appetite to cleanse the stables. We are putting together a package of two lectures to be trialled on the City University broadcast
media master’s course, probably in November. We are looking for statisticians willing to offer some basic tuition to aspiring
journalists. Payment is available for services provided.
David Walker
director getstats
October 2011 9
RSS NEWS
SECTIONS
Migration statistics
The Social and Environmental Statistics
Section held a joint meeting in July on
human migration and its impacts.
David Metcalf, from the London
School of Economics and chair of the
migration advisory committee (MAC)
spoke in detail about trends in the number
of foreign born workers in the UK, with
14 per cent of those of working age now
being born outside of the country. He
illustrated his talk with information on
flows based on the international passenger survey.
He outlined how the MAC had
advised the government on limits on
workers from outside of the European
economic area (EEA) in the context of
controls that also apply to those arriving
to study or for family reasons and the
mostly uncontrolled movements of
migrants from the EEA. They concluded
that, in terms of pay, immigration had
some limited effects in decreasing wages
at the low skill end but with gains at the
top of the skill distribution. He also noted
that the impact of restricting immigration
is modest on gross domestic product
(GDP) per head as compared with the
total GDP.
Scott Blinder, from the migration
observatory at the University of Oxford,
discussed attitudes to migration in the
UK, which are fairly negative and also
more negative than in most comparable
countries.
He made the point that public debate
is not often linked to the statistical measures of migration. Official definitions are
based on stays of more than 12 months
but the public think in terms of permanent settlement. People overestimate the
percentage of migrants in the country but
are more accurate about their local area.
He discussed implicit and instinctive
attitudes versus explicit attitudes where
people realise a need to avoid prejudice.
He discussed a method of looking at
implicit attitudes using visual prompts.
The implicit attitudes are not the only
truth but can help to disentangle attitudes. Correlation of factors with negative
attitudes does not imply causation and
10 October 2011
progress on improving measurement of
attitudes is important.
Jakub Bijak, from the University of
Southampton, discussed uncertainty in
migration forecasts due to different theories and measurements based on
censuses, registers and surveys.
The uncertainty was illustrated by estimates for emigration of Poles to Germany
that are thirty times higher for German
registers, with no length-of-stay criteria,
as opposed to Polish registers which
record permanent migration only.
Estimates of uncertainty around flows
between some EU countries were
presented with only the Finland to Norway
flow being closely estimated.
A range of economic, political, environmental and social factors influencing
migration was discussed. The main problem with migration theories is that they
are too specific to a particular discipline
such as economics.
There was some discussion of a practical way forward in terms of reduction of
multivariate forecasting models to time
series involving GDP ratios and unemployment rates in the sending country. A
suggested methodology using Bayesian
statistics would cover the whole analytical
framework of migration, from estimation
through forecasting to decision-making. It
would also include an explicit, coherent
description of uncertainty at the parameter and model level and the role of expert
judgment would be important given deficiencies in the data.
Priya Deshingar and Matteo Sandi,
from the International Institute for
Environment and Development, discussed
the impact of climate change on longterm migration projections with particular
reference to India.
Information from Indian national
sample surveys was presented which estimate migration within India. These
estimates are limited in their coverage of
short term migration but there is a lot of
circular migration between rural and
urban areas. Environmental migration was
likely to remain predominantly internal
with international migration following
established historic connections.
India is vulnerable to the impact of
climate change for a number of reasons.
Firstly, 70 per cent of India is already
prone to drought. Secondly, there are
many very populous low lying cities such
as Mumbai. Finally, wheat and rice
harvests are at risk of significant decline
in a very heavily populated country.
However, there was a need to review
alarmist projections through the use of
multiple data sources.
Marian Scott, from the University of
Glasgow, discussed the report of the Royal
Commission on Environmental Pollution
and how it brought together evidence of
demographic pressure on water use,
energy use, waste production and greenhouse emissions. It concluded that there
was scope to manage pollution without
explicitly managing people but that there
was a strong need to discuss environmental
constraints and demographic change. A
step change in the efficient use of
resources is required. The effect of migration on population size is important but
changes in consumption and responses to
the ageing population were seen as critical.
Report by Chris Kershaw
Spatial ecology statistics
In May the Environmental Statistics
Section organised a meeting on recent
advances in spatial statistics in ecology at
the University of St Andrews. The meeting
was attended by about 50 people in St
Andrews and with video links to Kent and
Lisbon. The meeting looked at many
different ecological situations where
spatial statistical methods are highly relevant since the ecological processes take
place in a spatial context.
The meeting opened with an inspiring
talk by David Miller, from the University
of Bath, on Using multidimensional scaling
with Duchon splines for reliable finite area
smoothing. His new approach takes
within-area distances and uses them to
project the location data into a new space
derived from multidimensional scaling.
Conventional smoothing can then take
place in this new space in which the
Euclidean distances between points now
approximate the original within-region
distances. Duchon’s 1977 generalisation of
thin plate splines has particular advantages
for smoothing in the multidimensional
scaling space.
This was followed by a talk by David
Borchers, from the University of St
Andrews, on Spatial models with wildlife
survey data. He reviewed some models
and methods for drawing inference about
spatial distribution from wildlife survey
data, in particular distance sampling and
spatially explicit capture-recapture data.
He then related these to the kinds of
spatial models and estimation methods
that are used when the aim is inference
about underlying processes rather than
estimating density or abundance.
The third speaker was Finn
Lindgren,
from
the
Norwegian
University of Science and Technology in
Trondheim, with a talk entitled
Computationally efficient spatial models.
His presentation detailed his recent Series
B paper on an explicit link between
Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov
random fields and its relevance for
RSS NEWS
Exploring careers showcase
ecological modelling. He explained why
traditional statistical methods for spatial
data based on positive definite covariance functions are cumbersome and
computationally inefficient. He discussed
an alternative approach based on
stochastic partial differential equations
and Markov random fields which allows
local, general and physically interpretable
spatial specification of models as well as
efficient statistical estimation procedures
as illustrated on some environmetric data
sets. The method does not require extensive knowledge of the theory and a
user-friendly software implementation is
available in the R-inla package for simulation-free Bayesian inference.
The last talk was given by Janine
Illian from the University of St Andrews
and discussed Spatio-temporal point
process modelling with applications in
population ecology. She pointed out that
routine fitting and assessment of spatial
point process models to data sets is still in
its infancy. Spatial and spatio-temporal
point pattern data sets are often analysed
with methods that do not make full use of
the available spatially explicit information.
The class of Cox point processes lends
itself well to modelling ecological spatial
point pattern data. The talk explained
how approaches may be used to efficiently fit different types of complex
spatio-temporal Cox process models to
data sets derived from plant and animal
populations.
In June the Young Statisticians Section
hosted a statistical showcase at Errol
Street. The event was aimed at statisticians at the beginning of their statistical
career or those looking to move into a
different field within statistics.
The day consisted of sessions with each
exploring one field of statistical employment
such as medicine, finance, industry, environment, government or sports. Each session
featured talks from three or four statisticians
working in the field who gave an overview
of their background, day-to-day activities
and employment opportunities.
Over 20 presenters attended with a
range of experience levels and background giving a variety of perspectives of
working in each field. The presentations
were all of a high standard but three
deserve particular mention. Firstly, Louise
Walter, from the Transport Research
Laboratory, encouraged the audience to
guess the statistical technique used in various problems she faced. Secondly, Peter
Robinson, from the BBC, showed how a
boyhood obsession led to the job of his
dreams. Finally, Tim Davis, charted his
varied career in statistical engineering with
the many possibilities and challenges of
the lesser known careers in statistics.
The formalities of the day concluded
with a session on personal development,
given by Paul Baxter, and a wine reception that allowed guests and presenters to
network informally.
Report by Janine Illian and Diana Cole
Report by Matthew Sperrin
LOCAL
GROUPS
Randomised controlled trial
methodology
Nearly 30 statisticians from the north of
England came to the University of
Liverpool on 21 June for the Merseyside
local group meeting on randomised
controlled trial methodology.
Ashley Jones, from Alder Hey
Children’s NHS Foundation Trust, opened
the meeting with findings from his research
into the use of systematic reviews in the
design of randomised controlled trials. He
presented three sources of data on the use
of systematic reviews in the design and
conduct of randomised trials: (1) a cohort
of studies funded by the Health Technology
Assessment programme in which he
explored how the trial design was informed
by the existing evidence base, (2) a case
study of how a review informed the riskbased monitoring plan for a trial, and (3) a
survey of Cochrane review groups to identify trials that were directly informed by a
review.
Simon Day, from Roche UK, followed
by considering what constitutes strength
of evidence. In his entertaining talk he
presented arguments as to why
randomised controlled studies (even very
small trials) might be preferable to uncontrolled studies and why ‘one size’ doesn’t
fit all when designing trials across very
diverse therapeutic areas.
The full programme and abstracts are
available from http://bit.ly/m6PuR1.
FORSOOTH!
Researchers at both facilities have
observed phenomena that indicate with
about 91 percent certainty that the Higgs
boson exists, Punzi said. Officially,
scientists can claim a subatomic discovery
when their findings reach 95 percent
probability, or one chance in 3.5 million,
that the phenomena aren’t statistical
flukes.
Geneva Patch
28 July 2011
RECORD TV AUDIENCE OF 18.6M FOR
GLASTO
A record 18.6 million people tuned in to
watch Beyonce, U2 and Coldplay and
others at Glastonbury. The figure for BBC2
was up by 3.2 million on last year when
the sun was shining and all eyes were on
the South Africa World Cup. But viewers
returned in their droves to watch scenes
unfold at a waterlogged Worth Farm in
Somerset. All three headliners had an
average audience of 1.5 million, with a
peak of 2.6 million tuning in for Beyonce,
2.2 million for Coldplay and 2.1 million for
U2.
Metro
1 July 2011
Submissions for Forsooth! should be sent
to Gordon Blunt, 22 Goward Street,
Market Harborough, Leics, LE16 9AF,
email gordon@gordonblunt.net,
telephone 01858 467766.
Report by Laura Bonnett
October 2011 11
RSS NEWS
CPD – burden or benefit?
Trevor Lewis, chair of the professional affairs committee, discusses the value of continuing
professional development and the RSS online CPD system.
F
or a number of years now, CPD
(continuing professional development) has been a cornerstone in
shaping the career development for a
wide range of professions. Developing
professional excellence beyond the basic
professional standards is increasingly seen
by employers and clients as a core requirement of delivering professional quality.
However, CPD is greeted with less
than enthusiasm by some people. In part
this is because they either believe it may
be worthwhile for others, but not for
themselves; or because it is viewed as a
bureaucratic waste of time. The former
view is sometimes held by those in the
mid to late stage of their career and the
latter may well be true if CPD is seen as an
end in itself rather than as a means to an
end. Maybe I can give a more positive spin
on its value.
Let me put my comments in the
context of the Society’s view of CPD.
We have been strong advocates of
CPD for many years. In 1993 we introduced a code of conduct, within which is
stated ‘Fellows shall seek to upgrade their
professional knowledge and skill and shall
maintain awareness of technological
developments, procedures and standards
which are relevant to their field, and shall
encourage their subordinates to do likewise’. We further clarified our views on
CPD, not least on what activities constitute CPD, through our CPD policy which
was introduced in 2004 and updated in
2009. Both the code of conduct and the
CPD policy can be found on our website
and are mandated for our professionally
qualified members and commended to all
fellows. Additionally, we run many activities and events of potential CPD value
including our international conferences,
section and local group meetings,
Ordinary
Meetings,
Professional
Development Centre training courses, the
mentoring
scheme
for
Graduate
Statisticians, professional examination
modules and many networking opportunities.
So let’s have a look at the view that
CPD is for others and not for us.
How is CPD defined in our view? CPD
is the systematic maintenance, improve-
12 October 2011
ment and broadening of knowledge and
skill and the development of personal
qualities necessary for the execution of
professional and technical duties throughout the practitioner’s working life. Clearly,
none of us are let off the hook by this definition. Even if you are currently in a role
that is not changing in terms of the activities you are undertaking, fortunately a
position I have never myself been in, the
world around you is changing. Certainly
our subject continues to evolve at a pace
and the context in which we are applying
it is also rapidly changing. So there is
much to do just to stand still.
One of the big changes over recent
years has been the increased diversity of
career pathways for statisticians.
Sometimes this diversity is created by
increased opportunities for the application
of statistical skills; other times it is as a
result of imposed change following
organisational restructuring or demise. As
a consequence, in the future it is likely
that a typical career path will involve
working in a number of roles, for several
employers, possibly in a number of countries, possibly across a number of sectors
of industry, commerce, government,
research and academia. It is in this context
that proactive career management and a
programme of CPD to develop the skills
and knowledge to fulfil career aspirations
becomes
increasingly
important.
Additionally, accreditation by a professional body (such as our Chartered
Statistician award) can provide recognition
across employers, countries and sectors of
your credentials as a professional statistician.
So what about the view that CPD (and
the recording of CPD activities) is a
burdensome waste of time?
We do not take this view. For holders
of the CStat award, we have established
the Maintained Professional Certificate,
which provides a form of reaccreditation
recognising engagement in appropriate
CPD. For those Chartered Statisticians
who have also taken up the Chartered
Scientist award, there is annual re-validation based on a submitted programme of
CPD which satisfies the Science Council’s
full standard. This standard emphasises an
important aspect of our CPD policy,
namely the value of periodic reflection on
the benefits gained from the programme
of CPD in developing skills and knowledge
and enhancing delivery to the employer or
client. This reflective practice aligns with
the approach of many enlightened
employers in their appraisal processes.
They periodically not only assess performance against delivery of tasks and business
goals, but also assess the benefit gained
from activities undertaken to develop skills
and knowledge.
So here CPD is seen as a means to an
end, not an end in itself. For the individual, it is carried out to improve
performance in the current role and to
open up avenues for career progression.
For the employer, it improves the delivery
of tasks in the short term and makes the
individual more valuable to the organisation in the future. For clients, evidence of
CPD being undertaken plays a part in
assuring them about the quality of the
service provided and the professionalism
of the statistician.
Inevitably there is an element of
bureaucracy in recording CPD activities.
Many employers provide systems to limit
this and indeed we have introduced our
own online CPD system. This provides the
opportunity to put in place a personal
development plan, to manage a diary of
CPD activities and to review the benefits
gained from the activities undertaken. The
system is structured to align with our CPD
policy and is easy to use, thus minimising
the bureaucratic burden and enhancing
your opportunity to gain benefit from
your CPD programme.
If you have not already been granted
access to our online CPD system and you
would like to register, drop an email to
cpdadmin@rss.org.uk. Originally, Graduate
Statisticians and Chartered Statisticians
were granted access because of the
mandatory nature of CPD for them, but
the system is open for use by all fellows.
So please register if it could be of potential
value for you.
Much of what is covered in this article
relating to the Society’s advocacy of CPD
can be found at www.rss.org.uk/cpd and
on links from the webpage. n
RSS NEWS
NEW TREASURER
Ed Swires-Hennessy took over from Tom Grimes as the Society’s honorary
treasurer at the AGM in June.
Ed is no stranger to the RSS: he was on the Council 2001 to 2007 and was
the membership theme director from 2003 to 2007. He has also been on the
finance committee and a director of RSS Services Ltd since 2003.
In addition to being our treasurer, Ed has also taken on the mantle of
membership theme director again. So any ideas on how your membership
of the Society can be further enhanced should be sent to him at the
Society’s address.
Ed retired from the Government Statistical Service in 2010 following a
career mainly based in Wales. He is known for his interest in the
presentation and dissemination of statistics and, following his teaching on
these subjects for European statisticians, has taught a course for the RSS for
several years.
Ed Swires-Hennessy
OFFICIAL
STATISTICS
report by Richard Cracknell
New ONS website
The Office for National Statistics recently
launched its new website. The new site
aims to make it easier to find what you
want and download data for further use.
The initial changes are part of a development programme and ONS welcomes user
feedback to help with these improvements.
Further details may be found at
www.ons.gov.uk/.
UK Statistics Authority
The chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir
Michael Scholar, has written to the Office
for National Statistics about the prominence given to special factors which have
influenced the latest GDP figures. Sir
Michael was concerned that some media
coverage of the GDP estimates ‘treated
ONS's account as being politically moti-
The first West medal was presented to Ed in 2003 for his work on
dissemination.
vated and providing a series of excuses for
the low growth figures in support of the
Coalition government.’
The Authority recently agreed that the
DWP should improve its presentation of
statistics on Employment and Support
Allowance, following concerns expressed
by the House of Commons Work and
Pensions Committee about the way in
which these data were reported in the
media.
The Authority recently published a
monitoring brief on 'The demand for, and
feasibility of, a UK-wide index of multiple
deprivation'. While it did not see a sufficiently strong case for the development by
government of a UK-wide indicator, it
concluded that some further steps would
help meet the needs of users with an
interest in deprivation across the UK. In
August the Authority wrote to the
Economic and Social Research Council to
see whether it might consider championing the development of such an index.
Further details may be found at www.
statisticsauthority.gov.uk/.
Open Data
The Cabinet Office published a consultation paper setting out the government’s
proposed approach for Transparency and
Open Data Strategy. The proposed
approach is basically about creating a ‘pull’
(an enhanced right to data) and a ‘push’ (a
presumption of publication). The consultation seeks views on:
u stronger rights to obtain data from
public service providers
u how to enhance a ‘right to data’
u how to set transparency standards
u how public service providers might be
accountable for delivering data
u how to ensure collection and publication
of the most useful data
u how far there is a role for government to
stimulate enterprise and market making in
the use of open data.
The consultation closes on 27 October.
An Open Data event organised by the
Statistics User Forum and the National
Statistician’s Office will take place at the
RSS on Friday 30 September.
Further details may be found at www.
data.gov.uk and www.sufenews.org.uk/.
News, views and other contributions to this
column, on any aspect of official statistics,
are welcome.
They should be sent to Richard Cracknell,
House of Commons Library,
1 Derby Gate, London SW1A 2DG.
Tel: 020 7219 4632.
Email: cracknellrj@parliament.uk
News and views from the RSS at: www.rssenews.org.uk
October 2011 13
RSS NEWS
NEW AWARD
IN THE NEWS
An edition of BBC Radio 4’s Tribes of Science programme was
recorded at the Society’s awards ceremony in June. Readers with
access to the BBC iPlayer service can listen to the programme
over the internet at http://bbc.in/pPk6lj.
Listeners will find out why David Spiegelhalter shouts at Radio
4’s Today programme and how Sheila Bird is working to get
parliamentarians to ask ‘statistically savvy’ questions. Along the
way they will hear David Hand and Valerie Isham explain how,
with the physical exploration of the world increasingly
complete, modern data exploration is opening up new
challenges. Father and son Vern and Daniel Farewell give an
insight into how statistical interest can run in the family, and
Jane Galbraith explains how she is seeking after truth, although
not necessarily finding it!
‘I came in groaning with clichés about statisticians as the
‘number-obsessives’ locked in their own field,’ presenter Peter
Curran admits. ‘But in fact these are well rounded human beings
who have an absolute passion for statistics, not in themselves
but how those numbers will explain the world we live in and
give us a sense of truth to work with.’
The Jon Rasbash prize for Quantitative Social
Science has been established to commemorate
the contributions to this subject of Jon Rasbash,
who was professor of computational statistics
and director of the Centre for Multilevel
Modelling at the University of Bristol. Jon was
principally known for his development of
multilevel methodology and its software
implementation and for his research on
studying social relationships within families.
The £500 prize recognises early career
achievement in the development and/or
application of advanced quantitative methods
in any social science discipline.
Applicants should be UK residents and in the
first ten years of their research career (including
periods of postgraduate study).
The prize will be awarded on the basis of a
research paper published in a peer-reviewed
journal in 2010 or 2011. The applicant should be
the sole or lead author of the paper. Submissions
should be received by 1 December.
Further details are available at
http://bit.ly/pIH3sc.
Ref: 6151
University of Waterloo
Chair of Statistics and Actuarial Science
The Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo invites
applications for the position of Department Chair. This will come with a tenured Associate
or Full Professorship, depending on qualifications. The successful candidate will be
internationally recognized as a distinguished researcher in the statistical or actuarial
sciences and have demonstrated leadership abilities to guide the department during an
exciting time of expansion.
Candidates interested in this important leadership position should have a PhD in
Statistics or Actuarial Science, a strong track record in research, demonstrated success in
graduate student supervision, and evidence of effective leadership. The salary offered will
be commensurate with qualifications and experience. The closing date for applications
is October 31, 2011, but suitable candidates will be invited for interviews while the
position is advertised and an appointment may be made prior to the closing date.
Candidates interested in this exciting
opportunity should submit a
curriculum vitae to:
Ian Goulden, Dean
Faculty of Mathematics
University of Waterloo
Waterloo ON N2L 3G1, CANADA
dean@math.uwaterloo.ca
All qualified candidates are encouraged to apply.
Canadians and permanent residents will be given
priority. The University of Waterloo encourages
applications from all qualified individuals,
including women, members of visible minorities,
native peoples, and persons with disabilities.
The University of Waterloo is located at the heart of Canada’s Technology Triangle and has become one of Canada’s leading comprehensive universities
with more than 30,000 full- and part-time students in undergraduate and graduate programs. For 19 years in a row the University of Waterloo has been
named Canada’s most innovative university in the Maclean’s annual university rankings and recently topped the reputational categories of most
innovative, most likely to produce the leaders of tomorrow, and best overall. The university is committed to building a better future for Canada and the
world by championing innovation and collaboration to create solutions relevant to the needs of today and tomorrow.
The Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science is among the top academic units for statistical and actuarial science in the world and is home to more
than 40 research active full-time faculty. It offers a vibrant research environment for a wide range of areas including foundations of statistics, analysis of
longitudinal and life history data, computational inference, finance, risk management, ruin theory, survey methods, industrial statistics, and
interdisciplinary collaborative work. The Department benefits from close relationships with several research groups on campus including WATRISQ, the
Business and Industrial Research Group, the Survey Research Centre, the PROPEL Centre for Population Health Impact and many others. The Department is
also home to nearly 150 graduate students in programs including Actuarial Science, Biostatistics, Quantitative Finance, Statistics, and Statistics-Computing.
14 October 2011
RSS NEWS
Ref: 6152
STATISTICAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
Do you like working with massive data sets?
Are you interested in finance and markets?
Are you looking for a new challenge?
Winton Capital is one of the world’s
leading quantitative investment managers.
We specialise in applying advanced
statistical techniques to large data sets
coming from markets, looking for signals
which can be used as the basis for
successful trading systems.
We are a scientific research led business
and seek talented applied scientists with
experience working with large, real world
data to join our research teams in London
and Oxford.
If you are interested in applying or just finding out more,
please email Recruitment@WintonCapital.com or visit WintonCapital.com
WINTON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD
Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WHAT YOU’VE BEEN READING ONLINE highlights from www.rssenews.org.uk
w 14 September
Campaign urges public to ‘ask
for evidence’
Asking for the evidence behind
scientific and medical claims is
the thrust of a new campaign,
supported by leading scientists
and public figures.
w 8 September
Beyond Westminster – Data
Tsunami on Radio 4
Some new insight into
government thinking behind its
open data strategy and tracks
the journey from John Major's
initiative on league tables...
w 7 September
Data Unleashed – a getstats
Summer commentary
During August the government
invited comment on its latest
thinking about how unleashing
data … will make them more
accountable, and give the
public a stronger sense of
ownership of government
itself.
w 1 September
Smoking researchers say Philip
Morris' use of FoI threatens
academic freedom
Academics at the University of
Stirling are resisting legal
attempts by tobacco company
Philip Morris International
(PMI) to access teenage
smoking research, which they
say have ‘enormous
implications for academic
freedom’.
w 31 August
ESDS–UK Data Archive backs
MP's call to publish research
data
The Economic and Social Data
Service (ESDS) and the UK Data
Archive have endorsed a
recommendation by the House
of Commons Science and
Technology Committee to
make data from publiclyfunded research available for
peer review.
w 25 August
'Big data' startups can compete
but success depends on
accuracy of predictions
Data analysis, and the ability to
generate reliable predictions, is
a rapidly expanding business
sector where startup companies
can compete with major
established businesses.
w 23 August
Science reporting – ready to
come of age?
The BBC Trust’s report on
impartiality of science
reporting offers real
opportunities for wider, more
objective reporting and the
scientific community, says Tom
King.
w 18 August
UK Statistics Authority
concerned about ‘politically
motivated’ ONS comments
The UK Statistics Authority has
expressed concern to the Office
of National Statistics (ONS)
about media reports
suggesting that its commentary
on 'special events' affecting the
recent quarterly GDP figures
was ‘politically motivated...’
w 16 August
Randomisation champion
Meier dies
Dr Paul Meier, the US
statistician who championed
randomisation in medical trials,
has died aged 87.
w 15 August
UK Statistics Authority to call
for Code of Practice to be
applied to Employment and
Support Allowance stats
The UK Statistics Authority has
said it will ask the Secretary of
State for Work and Pensions to
apply the the Code of Practice
for Official Statistics to the
reporting of politically sensitive
statistics on the Employment
and Support Allowance (ESA).
October 2011 15
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Postgraduate S
tatistics C
Lancaster
Lancaster Postgraduate
Statistics
Centre
entre
Short Courses
Courses 2
011-2012
Short
2011-2012
Statistics
S
tatistics for
for Scientists,
Scientists, Social
Social Scientists
Scientists and
and Health
Health Professionals
Professionals
Continuing Professional
Development Courses
in Statistics
Lancaster Postgraduate Statistics Centre is
the only HEFCE funded Centre of Excellence
for Teaching
Teaching and Learning that uniquely
specialises
in
postgraduate
statistics.
Courses are taught by members of the
Statistics Group within the Department of
Mathematics and Statistics.
What do we offer?
We
W
e offer
offfe
er a wide
wide range
range of
of statistics
statistics courses
courses and
and
a variety
variety of
of ways
ways to
to learn.
learn. The
The following
fo
ollowing courses
courses
run
year. Please
Please check
run regularly
regularly each
each year.
check our
our
website
most
website for
for the
up-to-date information.
information.
the m
ost up-to-date
For more information including fees or to
book on a short course, please visit our
www.maths.lancs.ac.uk/psc
website www
.maths.lancs.ac.uk/psc or
psc@lancaster.ac.uk.
email us at psc@lancaster
.ac.uk.
Introductory short
short courses
courses
Introductory
Methods
Statistical
S
tatistical Methods
IIntroduction
ntroduction to
to Statistics
Statistics (SPSS
I)
(SPSS I)
S
econdary Data
Data Analysis
Secondary
Analysis
Design
Questionnaire
Questionnaire Design
S
ampling Design
Design
Sampling
Atlas.ti
A
tlas.ti
G
Going
oing further
further with
with statistics
statistics
Inference
Statistical
S
tatistical Inference
U
sing R software
software
Using
Generalised
G
eneralised Linear
Linear Models
Models
Analysis
Duration
Duration (Survival)
(Survival) Analysis
Forensic Evidence
Evidence
Quantifying and
and Evaluating
Evaluating Forensic
Quantifying
D
ata Mining
Mining Techniques
Techniques
Data
Using
Using STATA
STATA
Bayesian
Methods
B
ayesian Methods
Intermediate
Intermediate SPSS
SPSS for
for Windows
Windows (SPSS
(SPSS II)
II)
Structural
Equation
Modelling
AMOS
Structural E
quation M
using A
MOS
odelling using
Multi-Level
Models
M
ulti-Level M
odels
Methods
Missing
Data
Methods ffor
or M
issing D
ata
Quantitative
Criminology
Q
uantitative C
riminology
October
2011
118-19
8-19 O
ctober 2
011
2-3
2011
2
-3 November
November 2
011
2011
1 December
December 2
011
2011
5 December
December 2
011
2011
6 December
December 2
011
16
March
2012
16 M
arch 2
012
25-26 October
25-26
October 2011
2011
17-18 N
17-18
November
ovember 2011
2011
23-25 N
23-25
November
ovember 2011
2011
25-26
25-26 January
2012
January 2012
2012
-9 February
y 2012
8-9
8
Februarry
2-23 February
February 2012
2
22-23
2012
2
8-29 February
28-29
2012
Februarry
y2
012
1-2
March
2012
1-2 M
arch 2
012
7-8
2012
7
-8 March
March 2
012
21-22
March
2012
2
1-22 M
arch 2
012
25-26
April
2012
2
5-26 A
pril 2
012
2-3
May
2012
2
-3 M
ay 2
012
16-17
May
2012
16-17 M
ay 2
012
cience, S
ocial Science
Science and
and
P
gCert/PgDip/MSc in
in Q
uantitative Methods
PgCert/PgDip/MSc
Quantitative
Methods for
for S
Science,
Social
qualification full-time
full-time o
courses a
s part
part of
of a postgraduate
postgraduate qualification
M
edicine: S
tudy the
the above
above CPD
CPD courses
Medicine:
Study
as
orr
Learn about
about quantitative
quantitative methods
methods used
used iin
n science,
science, social
social and
and crime
crime statistics,
statistics, health
health
p
arrtt-time. Learn
part-time.
research or
or teaching
teaching statistics
statistics by
by following
following one
one of
of our
our o
ptional p
athways.
research
optional
pathways.
Specialist
Specialist Topics
Topics in
in Medical
Medical and
and Pharmaceutical
Pharmaceutical Research
Research
7 December
December 2011
2011
onitoring Board
Board Workshop
Workshop
Data
D
ata a
and
nd Safety
Safety M
Monitoring
February 2
P
harmacological Modelling
Modelling
13-16 February
Pharmacological
13-16
2012
012
Survival and
and Event
Event History
History Analysis
Analysis
27 February
February - 1 M
Survival
27
March
2012
arch 2
012
Adaptive and
and Bayesian
Bayesian Methods
Methods in
in Clinical
Clinical Research
Research
Adaptive
12-15
March
12-15 M
arch 2012
2012
G
enomics: Technologies
Technologies and
and Data
Data Analyses
Analyses
Genomics:
March
116
6M
arch 2012
2012
(registration
(registration deadline
deadline is
is 16
16 January
January 2012
2012 for
for this
this workshop)
workshop)
Statistical
S
tatistical Methods
Methods for
for Ordered
Ordered Categorical
Categorical Data
Data
11-12
11-12 June
June 2012
2012
optional pathways
pathways in
in medical,
medical, pharmaceutical
pharmaceutical or
or
M
Sc in
in Statistics:
Statistics: C
hoose optional
MSc
Choose
advanced techniques.
techniques. For
For those
those with
with a background
background in
in
e
nvironmental statistics.
statistics. Study
Study advanced
environmental
m
athematics or
or statistics.
statistics.
mathematics
16 October 2011