Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
5751 North Kolb Road, Suite 40108
Tucson, Arizona 85750-3773
The Critical Role of Information Technology
in Creating a More Sustainable World
New Insights, Attitudes and Motivated Behaviors*
John A. “Skip” Laitner
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates
The Joint WRF, ITU, GeSI and HP Workshop
ICT Solutions for Sustainable Lifestyles
Zurich, Switzerland
13 February 2013
* In the spirit and tradition of Nobel Laureate and former Caltech physicist Richard Feynman, in his 1959
visionary talk, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom.” See, http://www.its.caltech.edu/~feynman/plenty.html.
A Working Hypothesis
The economic recovery and the full
development of our long-term global
prosperity will not be possible without
significant increases in purposeful
investment and greater levels of resource
and energy efficiency – enabled by
interactive information technologies and
systems, and motivated by informed
attitudes, and more productive behaviors.
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
1
Why This Issue Is Important
 There is a surprising connection between annual gains in energy
efficiency and the larger productivity of the economy.
 At the same time the global economy is surprisingly energy inefficient.
‒ The energy efficiency of the U.S. economy, for example, is an
anemic 14 percent, meaning that 86 percent of all energy
resources are wasted in the production of goods and services.
‒ Other developed economies as Japan, the European Union, and
Switzerland are only marginally better.
‒ That level of waste imposes huge constraints on the larger wellbeing of our global economy.
 Perhaps the most immediate opportunity to ensure a more robust and
sustainable economy is to quadruple or better our levels of energy
(in)efficiency.
 Information and communication technologies (ICT) and broadband
services – the use of what we call “intelligent efficiency”– may provide
the critical path forward to ensure a greater and a longer-term global
economic productivity.
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
2
At the Same Time. . .
 Yes, energy efficiency in the U.S. has already met 75% of new
demands for energy-related goods and services since 1970 while
new energy supplies have met only 25% of those new demands.
 But energy efficiency gains are a highly invisible and a seriously
lagging success story.
 And, we are in the midst of a weakened economic productivity that
may be severely impacted by energy constraints, as well as by
growing demands from developing economies.
 As we look at the emergence of new communication and new energy
systems, we are on the cusp of what my colleague Jeremy Rifkin, in
his new book, refers to as the Third Industrial Revolution:
• First era: roughly corresponding to use of print media and coal/steam energy
• Second era: use of telecommunications and petroleum
• Emerging third era: interactive communications and distributed clean energy
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
3
Intelligent Efficiency
People-Centered Initiatives (RealTime Feedback and Engagement):
Digital Energy Management
(Automation and Optimization):
Providing real-time information and
management tools that enable consumers
building owners and operators, manufacturers,
and other users to adjust energy consumption in
response to changing information. Examples:
 Building energy use displays and comparisons
 Real-time pricing and smart meters
 Immediate market information to facilitate
optimal buying and selling
Using sensors, controls, and computer software
to automate business processes or building
operations in order to optimize energy use. This
bypasses much of the need for people to
respond. Examples:
 Building sensor and control systems
 Optimization between different sets of
systems, like AC, lighting, computer use
 Smart Manufacturing
Substitution with Energy-Saving ICT
Services:
Smart, Highly Interconnected Land
Use and Infrastructure:
Shifting behaviors, services and structure of the
economy in ways that displace more energyintensive activities. Examples:
 Video conferencing instead of traveling for inperson meeting; teleworking
 Kindle, Nook, instead of printing books
 Online shopping instead of consumers driving
to stores
Integrating optimized and more productive
infrastructure with smart growth and resilient
development. Examples:
 Systems approach to community and
transportation planning
 Traffic signal optimization
 Zip cars
 Robust electricity and communication
microgrids
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
4
Purposeful Effort is Required to Respond to the
Economic and Climate Imperatives
Performance,
Productivity
and Returns
Standard
Technology
Some might say this
is about where we
are on the curve at
the moment
Time
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
5
Purposeful Effort is Required to Respond to the
Economic and Climate Imperatives
Performance,
Productivity
and Returns
Smart Infrastructure
and ICT-Enabled
Technology Systems
Standard
Technology
Transformation
Cumulative Investment and Purposeful Effort
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
6
Jumping to the End of the Story
The new ACEEE report, “The Long-Term Energy
Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests,”
shows how slashing U.S. energy consumption by 40 to
60% ‒ all done through highly cost-effective efficiency
investments ‒ could generate up to 2 million jobs while
saving all residential and business consumers a net
$400 billion per year, or the equivalent of about $2,600
per household annually.
The key insight? Instead of tiny increments, the US will
be better off ‘Thinking Big’ about energy productivity
and energy services, rather than relying on the usual
set of very costly and conventional energy resources.
Source: The Long-Term Energy Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests (2012).
Washington, DC: ACEEE. http://www.aceee.org/press/2012/01/aceee-report-us-better-thinking-big-
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
Sources: The Long-Term Energy Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests (2012).
Washington, DC: ACEEE. http://www.aceee.org/press/2012/01/aceee-report-us-better-thinking-bigJohn A. “Skip” Laitner. 2013. “The Link Between Energy Efficiency, Useful Work, and a Robust Economy,”
in John Byrne and Yang-doo Wang (editors), Secure and Green Energy Economies (forthcoming).
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
Just One of Many Examples:
Optimizing the U.S. Traffic Signals
 There are an estimated 272,000 traffic signal systems




throughout the United States today.
Stop and start driving and poorly timed signals cause
unnecessary fuel consumption on our nation’s highways.
Retrofitting these systems with smart sensors and
dynamic programming techniques can improve traffic
flow that, in turn, can reduce highway fuel consumption
by 5-10% per year.
The cost? About $10-12 per household. The savings?
About $150 per household per year – and possibly more!
ICT and smart infrastructure can be a critical enabler.
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
9
Yet, we must also explore the
behavioral elements as a
means to reinvigorate the
economic imperative of
energy efficiency. . .
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
10
A Critical Observation
•
•
Yes. . . “Science and technology can create much
better choices.” (Former DOE Secretary Chu 2009)
But we won’t get there unless we bring people back
into the process.
Or More Prosaically. . .
A revolution doesn’t happen when society adopts new
tools, it happens when society adopts new behaviors.
Clay Shirky
NYU Telecommunications Professor
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
How Important is Behavior?
People as Problem?
Or. . .
People as Solution?
Buildings would work perfectly if it weren’t for
the people in them.
-- Anonymous, ACEEE Conference, circa 1993
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
The Foundation of an Energy Revolution
• Engaging and empowering the entire
population to adopt new behaviors,
and to create a dynamically new
energy culture.
• We need to get people to do things
differently.
• How do we do that?
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
13
Managing an Invisible Resource
•
•
•
•
Unlike previous eras – today’s energy resources are
invisible.
People no longer cut wood or shovel coal.
Electricity enters our homes in seamless and silent
ways.
Our only means of assessing our level of consumption
is the bill that we pay each month.
 So the very first step is feedback – a mechanism
for making energy visible, a tool for learning, and a
means of generating confidence and effective
response.
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
14
How do we Engage People?
INFORMATION…providing information about energy
consumption, technologies, programs, priorities, and
amount of savings achieved.
Energy Consumption Feedback
Savings: 20%
Residential Feedback
Savings: 4-12%
Cisco Mediator
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
Residential Feedback Approaches
Average Household Electricity Savings (4-12%)
For Historical Programs by Feedback Type
Ehrhardt-Martinez, K., Donnelly, K.A., and Laitner, J.A. 2010
A meta-review of 57 different feedback programs
12.0%
Annual Percent Savings
9.2%
8.4%
6.8%
3.8%
Enhanced
Billing
Householdspecific info,
advice
Estimated
Feedback
Web-based
energy audits
with info on
ongoing basis
Daily/
Weekly
Feedback
Householdspecific info,
advise on
daily or
weekly basis
Real-Time
Feedback
Real-time
premise level
info
Real-Time
Plus
Feedback
Real-time info
down to the
appliance level
“Indirect” Feedback
“Direct” Feedback
(Provided Real Time)
(Provided
after
Consumption
Occurs)
Economic
and
Human
Dimensions
Research Associates ::..
Potential
Resource
Savings:
20 to 35%
Real-Time Plus
Feedback w/
Smart Program
Design
Plus Application of
Smart Social
Science Insights
Three Targets/Mechanisms of Change
Use insights from the Social Sciences to understand:
1. The effectiveness of energy feedback systems
2. The impact of the scale and design of both smart grid
and smart infrastructure on community-level
engagement, and
3. The relationship between feedback, measures of
confidence and effectiveness, and other determinants
of deep building retrofits and other large-scale
efficiency improvements.
All enabled by Information and Communication Technologies
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
Perhaps Our Ultimate Economic and
Energy Efficiency Resource?
•
•
•
Recalling the comment of early Twentieth Century UK
essayist, Lionel Strachey, who remarked: “Americans
guess because they are in too great a hurry to think.”
Jerry Hirschberg, founder and former CEO of Nissan
Design, who noted that: “Creativity is not an escape
from disciplined thinking. It is an escape with
disciplined thinking."
And Henry Ford once said, “Thinking is the hardest
work there is which is the probable reason why so few
engage in it.”
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
The Key Take-Aways
• The energy efficiency resource is larger and more
necessary to develop than is generally understood
• Engaging, empowering and motivating consumers is a
critical first step in building large-scale savings.
• For real, deep, and lasting change, a layered approach
to changing behavior is important – using multiple
methods and means of reaching people, as individuals,
but also as family members, neighbors, and co-workers!
• And not discussed today, but also the need for new
business models that shift from the sale of commodities
to providing value-added services, and do so in ways
that save businesses and consumers money while
generating positive returns for investors.
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
The difficulty lies not with
the new ideas, but in
escaping the old ones. . . .
John Maynard Keynes
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..
For further information and citations to
the resources and references cited:
John A. “Skip” Laitner
c: (571) 332-9434
email: econskip@gmail.com
See our eBook on the behavior resource:
Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez and John A. “Skip” Laitner, Editors
People-Centered Initiatives for Increasing Energy Savings
Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
www.aceee.org/node/9275
See also my Desert Year Blog:
Running with the Lizards and Doing a 180 on Energy
http://www.realclimateeconomics.org/wp/archives/1261
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::..