The Sydney Older Persons Study
and Population Ageing
Professor Tony Broe
Ageing Research Centre
Prince of Wales Hospital
SYDNEY OLDER PERSON STUDY WAVE 1 (SOPS 1)
AGE DISTRIBUTION
80
70
Frequency
60
Male
50
Female
40
30
20
10
0
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Age (N=522)
NEUROSENSORY DISORDERS
SOPS1 PREVALENCE
(N=522. Age trends: * p < 0.05; ** p< 0.01)
3.5
Prevalence rate
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
75
78
81
84
Age
87
90
93
Parkinsonism**
Dementia**
Motor Slowing (excl. Park.)**
Cognitive Impairment (excl. Dem.)**
Vision**
Ataxia**
SYSTEMIC DISEASES
SOPS1 PREVALENCE
(N=522. Age trends: * p < 0.05; ** p< 0.01)
2.5
Prevalence rate
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
75
78
81
84
Age
87
90
93
Other Systemic
Peripheral Vascular Disease
Chronic Lung Disease*
Stroke
Obesity
Heart Disease
Arthritis
NEUROSENSORY DISORDERS
3-YEAR INCIDENCE
(N=353. Age trends: * p < 0.05; ** p< 0.01)
4
3.5
Incidence rate
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
75
78
81
84
Age (at SOPS1)
87
90
93
Parkinsonism
Dementia**
Motor Slowing (excl. Park.)**
Cognitive Impairment (excl. Dem.)*
Vision*
Ataxia**
SYSTEMIC DISEASES
3-YEAR INCIDENCE
(N=353. Age trends: * p < 0.05; ** p< 0.01)
2.5
Incidence rate
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
75
78
81
84
Age (at SOPS1)
87
90
93
Other Systemic
Peripheral Vascular Disease
Chronic Lung Disease
Stroke
Obesity
Heart Disease
Arthritis
PROPORTIONS OF DISABILITY ATTRIBUTABLE
TO NEUROSENSORY & SYSTEMIC DISORDERS
100%
Unexplained
Unexplained
90%
Other Systemic
80%
Peripheral Vascular
Disease
Chronic Lung Disease
Systemic
Proportion
70%
Stroke
60%
Obesity
50%
Heart Disease
Neurosensory
40%
Arthritis
30%
Motor Slowing (incl.
Park.)
Cognitive Impairment
(incl. Dem.)
Vision
20%
10%
Ataxia
0%
SOPS1
SOPS2
Era
The elderly in the English population 1541-1981.
25
% over 60
20
15
10
5
0
1541
1751
Era
% over 60
1921
1981
The elderly in the English population 1541-1981.
25
The age of pandemic infections
20
(... - c.1750)
The age of receding
epidemics
(c.1751 - c.1920)
15
% over 60
The age of
degenerative
diseases
(c.1921 - ...)
10
5
0
1541
1751
Era
% over 60
1921
1981
Compression of Morbidity
Frequency
Alive,
lifespan
unchanged
Healthy, no
improved
morbidity
Age
10
0
10
5
11
0
95
90
85
80
Healthy,
improved
morbidity
75
70
65
60
55
50
Compression
of morbidity
De-Compression of Morbidity
Frequency
New
morbidity
Alive,
lifespan
prolonged
Healthy, no
improved
morbidity
Age
10
0
10
5
11
0
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Healthy,
improved
morbidity
The Epidemiologic Transition
(Omran 1971)
1.
The age of pandemic infections
2.
The age of receding epidemics
3.
The age of degenerative “man-made” diseases
The Epidemiologic Transition
(Olshansky & Ault 1986)
1. The age of pandemic infections
2. The age of receding epidemics
3. The age of degenerative diseases
4. The age of delayed degenerative diseases
The Epidemiologic Transition
(Broe & Creasey 1995)
1. The age of pandemic infections
2. The age of receding epidemics
3. The age of degenerative diseases
4. The age of delayed degenerative diseases
5. The age of neuro-sensory degenerative diseases
The Epidemiologic Transition
(2020 +)
1. The age of pandemic infections
2. The age of receding epidemics
3. The age of degenerative diseases
4. The age of delayed degenerative diseases
5. The age of neuro-sensory diseases
6. The Golden Age of delayed neuro-sensory diseases
“Prevention of the morbidity or disability
associated with ageing is the central issue for
future health, and knowledge of which
approaches are best and how they may best be
implemented is a prerequisite for successful
health policies.” (James Fries 1997)
“The brain is a unique organ: the more active
it is, the more adequate it functions and the
longer it lives.” (Michael Hofman:
Neurobiology of Ageing, 1991)
SYSTEMIC DISORDERS OF AGEING
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTORS
Cardiovascular Disease
Salt Intake
Hypertension
Protein/Lipid/Carbohydrate Balance
Peripheral Vascular Disease
Fruit/Vegetables/Other Dietary Factors
Type II Diabetes - Obesity
Cigarettes
Stroke
Physical Activity Level
Kidney Failure (Reno-vascular)
Harmful or Hazardous Alcohol use
Chronic Lung Disease
Air Pollution
Cancer
Environmental Toxins
Osteoporosis
Occupational Risks
Osteoarthritis
Socio-economic Status