Sources of “Total Population Increased” in National Gazetteer of Qing Dynasty: a case study of Jiangsu Zhang Xinmin Institute of Chinese Historical Geography, Fudan University, 200433, China Abstract For historical demographers, Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi (National Gazetteer of Qing Dynasty) is very famous for its complete and detailed records involved with population data in late imperial China. Those records include three types, which are Yuan-E Ren Ding (original ding), Zi Sheng Ren Ding (ding increased), and Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased). By Ho Pingti’s contribution in 1959, scholars are familiar with ding’s essence as a fiscal unit, not real population data. Compared with the former two types of ding, the third one, Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao, is emphasized by historical demographers for its direct relationship to baojia registration in Qing dynasty. However, can we put those data into population research without any further consideration? Based on Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi of three editions and compared with local gazetteers, Fu-I Quan Shu (The Complete Books of Taxes and Corvee Labor), and palace archive of Qing dynasty, this paper attempts to reveal the complicated sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao. Set Jiangsu as an example, this study puts forward a hypothesis on how Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao being produced, indicating that Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao is attributed to a synthesis of baojia registration in Jia-qing period of Qing dynasty and ding assessment in the ninth year of Yong-zheng period of Qing dynasty. The process of reconstruction also reflects compilers’ unfamiliarity with terminologies involved. To sum up the discussion on sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao, it is certainly not justified to regard those figures as exact measures of China’s population size or growth rate because there is no accuracy in those figures from government publications, and any study that applies those data directly is bound to lead to absurd results. No study on history is perfect. This paper just explores the possibility on discovering the formation of population data in historical documents by providing a hypothesis to explain how those figures being produced. 1 Introduction Before China’s first population census held in Xuan-tong period of Qing dynasty, there are two ways for government to collect population data, Ren Ding Bian Shen (ding assessment) and Min Shu Hui Bao (baojia registration). Ho Pingti (1959) makes use of local gazetteers and private writings to prove that the number of ding in ding assessment had failed to represent the actual numbers of tax-paying adult-males when the meaning of ding developed from its official definition as adult-male from sixteen to sixty years old to a fiscal unit. Thus, there are little possibilities for historical demographers to estimate the growth of population or to reconstruct population data during early Qing times by the help of ding assessment and its records. Different from ding assessment as to calculate ding taxation and corvee labor, baojia registration has nothing directly to do with taxation. Inefficient as implementation of baojia registration is, its records, including households and mouths, are not underestimated by modern scholars because of its merits in two aspects. One is consistency in time. According to relevant provisions, provincial officials must send the results of baojia registration to the emperor in the eleventh month of each year, more frequently than quinquennial ding assessment. The other is detailed contents. Concentrating not on ding, baojia registration focuses on de jure population, including local Han inhabitants, army, and some minorities (Hou, 2008). Nowadays the records of baojia registration are mainly kept in the following three types of materials. (1) Palace archives; (2) Qing shi lu (Veritable Records of Qing Dynasty) and Qing san tong (Three Books on Regulations of Qing Dynasty); and (3) Gazetteers, including national ones and local ones. For (1) and (2), an obvious defect is that there are only records about nation and provinces. And even those national or provincial totals are full of textual errors and counting mistakes (Skinner, 1987) (Wang, 1997), which brings great difficulties to relevant researches. As regards local gazetteers, the records are not complete in areas and lack of consistency in time. Some counties are within the records while other counties are gaps, and there are data in some years while blank in other years. On the contrary, records in national gazetteer, for example, Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi (National Gazetteer of Qing Dynasty), are more feasible for their integrity and accuracy. In Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi, the figures of households and mouths not only cover three jurisdiction areas of general, eighteen provinces, and hundreds of prefectures but also 2 can be fixed to a standard time, the twenty-fifth year of Jia-qing period of Qing dynasty. Therefore, such temporal-spatial data are frequently applied to population researches without any further consideration. A comparative study between records of baojia registration form 1787 to 1898 kept in palace archive and the ones in national gazetteer indicates that the data in national gazetteer generally reflect the population data in twenty-fifth year of Jia-qing period of Qing dynasty except the data of Jiangsu (Jiang, 1993). Focusing on the exception, the researcher claims without any detailed explanation that the data of Jiangsu in national gazetteer can be divided into two different types, one reflects total population status in twenty-fifth year of Jia-qing period of Qing dynasty while the other reflects male population status in early Jia-qing period of Qing dynasty. Later a duplicate research tests the conclusion above by abundant materials from local gazetteers (Cao, 1997). However, a detail from the duplicate research catches my attention, resulting in the core problem of this paper. When discussing numbers of Suzhou prefecture, the researcher gets confused by such phenomenon that the sum of two numbers from national gazetteer, Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased) and Yuan-E Ren Ding (original ding), equals approximately to population data from local gazetteer (Cao, 1997). As mentioned before, ding is usually considered as fiscal unit, and original ding is often thought to inherit from tax returns of late Ming times. With such stereotype, the researcher just takes the phenomenon as a coincidence without further consideration, because tax returns of Ming dynasty have nothing to do with population data of Qing dynasty. In fact, original ding in national gazetteer is not from tax returns of late Ming times, but is based on ding assessment in the ninth year of Yong-zheng period of Qing dynasty (Zhang & Hou, 2010). Under the new perspective, the unusual phenomenon about Suzhou prefecture seems to be a key to a more complicated and interesting issue, i.e. if the phenomenon is not coincidence, but prevails among the whole Jiangsu area, the sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao would be uncovered. By use of palace archive, Fu-I Quan Shu and local gazetteers, this paper attempts to carry out a case study on Jiangsu as to reveal the sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao in national gazetteer. 3 Area, Materials, and Methods 1. Area The study area of this study is Jiangsu, one of the most prosperous areas with high population density in Qing dynasty. As mentioned before, the data of Jiangsu in national gazetteer are very special for their unmatched relationship to the ones in palace archive, which is the reason why Jiangsu is chosen as the study area. In Qing dynasty, the administrative division consists of three main levels, province, prefecture, 1 and county. As regards Jiangsu, there exist for a long time two provinces, Right province and Left province. Right province is constituted by Suzhou prefecture, Songjiang prefecture, Changzhou prefecture, Zhenjiang prefecture, Taicang prefecture, and Haimen prefecture, while Left province is constituted by Jiangning prefecture, Huai’an prefecture, Yangzhou prefecture, Xuzhou prefecture, Haizhou prefecture, and Tongzhou prefecture. (For details, see figure 1) Fig. 1. Map of Jiangsu Area Sources: The original map is the map of Qing dynasty in 1820 from CHGIS v4.0, Institute of Chinese Historical Geography, Fudan University. 1 Prefecture in Qing dynasty consists of three types, Fu (府), Zhi Li Zhou (直隶州), and Zhi Li Ting (直隶厅). 4 2. Materials The historical materials used by this study include palace archive, national gazetteer, local gazetteers, and Fu-I Quan Shu. In spite of errors and mistakes, palace archive keeps abundant records on regulations, provisions, and precedents of baojia registration, which are very useful to understand how baojia registration being carried out by local magistrates. There are three editions of national gazetteer 1 in Qing dynasty, and only the last one contains both original ding and Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao. In this paper, two kinds of data will be collected from local gazetteers. The first one is data on ding. Take Jiangnan Tong Zhi (Local Gazetteer of Jiangnan Area) for example, this book is compiled in Qian-long period of Qing dynasty and contains detailed records about ding assessment in the ninth year of Yong-zheng period of Qing dynasty, which consist of Yuan-E Ren Ding (original ding), Shi Zai Ren Ding (current ding), Zi Sheng Ren Ding (ding increased), You Mei Ren Ding (exempt ding), and Dang Cai Ren Ding (ding on duty). (For details, see table 1). Table 1 An Excerpt of Records of Ding Assessment in Huai’an Prefecture Year 1654 Record Number Year Record Original ding 209529.5 1696 Assessment +55 Ding escaped -92867.5 1701 Assessment +14122 1701 Assessment -11823 1711 Assessment +10712 Assessment in 1655 those years 1657 +21560 Number 1716 Assessment +179 1658 Assessment +6487 1721 Assessment +115 1662 Assessment +8136 1721 Assessment -6620 1664 Assessment +2120 1726 Assessment +170 1672 Assessment +10852 1731 Assessment +233 1676 Assessment +4966 1733 1681 Assessment +1344 1733 Current ding 234161 1686 Assessment +253 1733 Exempt ding 30018 1691 Assessment +103 1733 Ding on duty 175301 1691 Assessment -14070 1733 Ding increased Migration caused by change of administrative division +68605 28842 Sources: Yin Jishan, Jiangnan Tong Zhi, vol.74-75, Household & Population. Notes: (1) The original text has been transferred into numbers in this table; (2) In spite of quinquennial implementation, ding assessment is not carried out on time by local magistrates and the record time is also not unified. 1 The three editions of national gazetteer are compiled respectively in early Qian-long period, late Qian-long period, and Jia-qing period. 5 From table 1, it is very explicit that original ding plus all numbers in quinquennial assessment equals current ding (209529.5 – 92867.5 + 21560 + … +233 + 68605 = 234161) while current ding is also the sum of ding on duty, ding increased, and exempt ding (234161 = 30018 + 175301 + 28842). The second one is population data from baojia registration, including number of male, number of female, and number of total population. The big problem confronting me is that such population data scatters both in space and in time. It is very hard to find population data in a standard time in all prefectures or counties while there is also little possibility to find population data of a prefecture or county in every year. Fortunately, some population data such as the numbers of male or total population were recorded in Fu-I Quan Shu, which could be substitute when the local gazetteers are not available. 3. Methods In this paper, I put forward a hypothesis on sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao based on a series of empirical study on Suzhou prefecture, Jiangning prefecture, and Tongzhou prefecture. By the hypothesis, number of total population or male population in a standard time can be calculated in all prefectures of Jiangsu. The best and direct way to test the hypothesis is to compare the numbers calculated by hypothesis and the data collected from historical records in the same year. Unfortunately, population data in local gazetteers or Fu-I Quan Shu cannot be unified to a standard time. The growth rate of population is a common tool to describe changes of population and predict its possible trend in future. A principle in inferential statistics is the foundation of this study that samples are collected from population and statistics are calculated from the samples as to make inferences or extrapolations of parameters of the population. In this study, data of province can be regarded as the population while the ones of prefectures are regarded as the samples. By abundant provincial data from palace archive and prefectural data from local gazetteers, a parameter and a statistics is calculated respectively to reflect the growth rate of total population or male population. Then a comparison between parameter and statistics will be implemented as to judge the two figures’ match degrees. The hypothesis’s validity depends on whether or not the match degrees can be accepted within logic. 6 Hypothesis and Test 1. Hypothesis As mentioned in former section, the figures of Suzhou prefecture in national gazetteer have an approximate numerical relationship with those in local gazetteers. To be more detailed, all the relevant numbers both from national gazetteer and from local ones have been listed on table 2. Table 2 Suzhou Prefecture’s Figures from National and Local Gazetteers Year Record Local gazetteer (A) Local gazetteer (B) Original ding 538888 1731 Current ding 463846 1731 Exempt ding 3743 1731 Ding on duty 435087 1731 Ding increased 1820 Male population 3387856 1820 Female population 2520579 1820 Total population increased National gazetteer (C) 438830 25016 5473348 Sources: The figures of A are from Jiangnan Tong Zhi (Local gazetteer of Jiangnan); the figures of B are from Suzhou Fu Zhi (Local gazetteer of Suzhou prefecture); and the figures of C are from Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi (National gazetteer of Qing dynasty). By use of figures from table 2, the approximate numerical relationship advocated by former scholars can be expressed by an approximate equation, i.e. 438830 + 5473348) ≈ 3387856 + 2520579. The gap between two sides of the approximate equation is 3743, which is hard to convince readers to accept such conclusion that there is some relationship between the figures of (B) and those of (C). However, a fact has been revealed by former study that original ding in national gazetteer is based on records of ding in local gazetteers, i.e. 438830 = 3743 + 435087. If the readers are careful enough, an interesting scene would be observed that the number 3743 appears twice. The first time it appears as the gap between two sides of an approximate equation while the second time it plays a role of one side of another equation. Then an assumption is sparkled by this interesting thing that the number 3743 may be a bridge between the former two equations. ① 438830 + 5473348 = (3387856 + 2520579) + 3743; ② 438830 = 3743 + 435087; ③ (3743 + 435087) + 5473348 = (3387856 + 2520579) + 3743; ④ 435087 + 5473348 = 3387856 + 2520579. Using the procedural steps above, a new numerical relation is uncovered between 7 national and local gazetteers, i.e. Dang Cai Ren Ding (ding on duty) plus Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased) equals the sum of male population and female population. By keep tracing the origins of those numbers, I find that the figure of ding on duty (435087) is from ding assessment in 1731 while the data of male population (3387856) and female population (2520579) are from baojia registration in 1820. Here, total population data minus ding on duty equals Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased). Chances are that this is just a special case which can not be applied into other areas. But another example from Jiangning prefecture gives me more support. The figures of Jiangning prefecture from national and local gazetteers are listed on table 3. Table 3 Jiangning Prefecture’s Figures from National and Local Gazetteers Year Record Local gazetteer (A) Original ding 198592.4 1731 Current ding 169979.3 1731 Exempt ding 2216.6 1731 Ding on duty 167273.7 1731 Ding increased 1809 Male population 1820 Total population increased Local gazetteer (B) National gazetteer (C) 198518 489 2041292 1874018 Sources: The figures of A are from Jiangnan Tong Zhi (Local gazetteer of Jiangnan); the figures of B are from Jiangning Fu Zhi (Local gazetteer of Jiangning prefecture); and the figures of C are from Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi (National gazetteer of Qing dynasty). Based on similar procedural steps to Suzhou prefecture, I can draw a conclusion that ding on duty (167273.7) plus total population increased (1874018) equals male population (2041292). Here, male population data from baojia registration in 1809 minus ding on duty from ding assessment in 1731 equals Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased). As regards Tongzhou prefecture, happens little change that not only current ding but also original ding contribute to the formation of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased). The figures of Tongzhou prefecture are listed on table 4. Table 4 Tongzhou Prefecture’s Figures from National and Local Gazetteers Year Record Local gazetteer (A) Original ding *39155 1731 Current ding 169591 1809 Male population 1820 Total population increased Local gazetteer (B) National gazetteer (C) 1198605 982974 8 Sources: The figures of A are from Jiangnan Tong Zhi (Local gazetteer of Jiangnan); the figures of B are calculated by author based on data from other local gazetteers; and the figures of C are from Da Qing Yi Tong Zhi (National gazetteer of Qing dynasty). Notes: 39155 is original ding of Tongzhou (通州), not Tongzhou prefecture (通州直隶州). In the case of Tongzhou prefecture, current ding (169591) and original ding (39155) plus total population increased (982974) matches male population (1198605) very well. Here, male population data from baojia registration in 1809 minus both current ding from ding assessment in 1731 and original ding equals Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao (total population increased). From what has been discussed above, I try to put forward a hypothesis on the sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao by three equations which consist of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao abbreviated as Z, total population data in 1820 abbreviated as T, male population data in 1809 abbreviated as M, ding on duty in 1731 abbreviated as D, current ding in 1731 abbreviated as C, and original ding in Shun-zhi period of Qing dynasty abbreviated as O. ① Z = T – D; ② Z = M – D; ③ Z = M – (C + O). Whether the hypothesis can be applied into other areas in Jiangsu depends on the test in the following section. 2. Test The best way to judge whether the figures of all rest prefectures match the hypothesis mentioned in former section is to test data on total population in 1820 and male population in 1809. For there are no such data recorded in writings, the most optimal and feasible method is to calculate predicted values of total population in 1820 and male population in 1809 firstly and then to test those substitutes. The first step to calculate predicted values is to get a parameter to describe the growth rate of total population and male population, which needs abundant figures of total population and male population. For the first time the registration of population was made to be one of the primary functions of baojia system in the winter of 1775. Defective in size of household, sex ratio, and age structure (Ho, 1959), the figures after 1775 is still more reliable than other data in perspective of institutional history and should not be underestimated. Therefore, provincial data on total population and male population from 1775 to 1820 9 are collected from palace archive and applied to calculate a parameter as to reflect the growth rate of total population and male population respectively. By those figures of total population and male population year after year, a parameter called annual population growth rate can be calculated to measure the tendency of population changes from 1775 to 1820. (For details, see figure 2). Total Population Male Population 45000000 40000000 Number 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 1775 1778 1781 1784 1787 1790 1793 1796 1799 1802 1805 1808 1811 1814 1817 1820 Year Fig. 2. Linear Models of Total Population and Male Population in Jiangsu Sources: Data on total population and male population are from palace archive reserved by the First Historical Archives of China. In figure 2, the round points represent values of total population and the triangular points represent values of male population. The curves of two sets of population data seem to be very smooth, which means there are no huge population changes and the growth rate is available to reflect the development of population. Based on provincial data on total population and male population year after year, the growth rate of total population and male population can be calculated respectively and the results are two series of numbers, i.e. the growth rate of total population is between 3.5‰ and 10.7‰ (the average is 7.1‰) while the growth rate of male population is between 3.3‰ and 10.7‰ (the average is 8.1‰). As regards prefectural data on total population and male population, I collect some values in different years from local gazetteers and Fu-I Quan Shu and those values are listed on table 5. Table 5 Comparison between Values from Local Gazetteers and Hypothesis Values Values Area Year Songjiang prefecture 1816 2482974 1820 2867934 35‰ Changzhou prefecture 1830 4567935 1820 4531852 0.8‰ Zhenjiang prefecture 1811 2498324 1820 2329862.5 7.7‰ Taicang prefecture 1797 1806038 1820 1930417 2.8‰ Haizhou prefecture 1804 504881 1820 619878 12.9‰ Huai’an prefecture 1829 1914194 1809 1905605 0.2‰ from local gazetteers Year based on hypothesis Growth rate 10 Yangzhou prefecture 1808 3473633 1809 3523506.911 Xuzhou prefecture 1872 2673953 1809 2015495 14.3‰ 4.5‰ Sources: Values of prefectures are from local gazetteers of prefectures concerned, and values based on hypothesis are calculated by Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao from national gazetteer according to hypothesis (1) and (2). Notes: Values from local gazetteers in Huai’an prefecture, Yangzhou prefecture, and Xuzhou prefecture are male population while the rest are total population. Similarly, values based on hypothesis in Huai’an prefecture, Yangzhou prefecture, and Xuzhou prefecture are according to hypothesis (2) while the rest are according to hypothesis (1). The comparison between the growth rates in table 5 and the growth rates from figure 2 indicates that the two series of values are not matched very well, especially in some areas like Songjiang prefecture and Yangzhou prefectures the divergences are prominent. However, there is a very important principle in history research concerning numbers that numbers can not speak by themselves. Although numbers are very concise, the explanation to numbers from historical materials is more important. Back to this study, a factor should not be ignored that the growth rates from figure 2 are concerned with values of province while the growth rates in table 5 are related to values of prefectures, which are smaller than province. The provincial data on total population and male population are the sum of prefectural figures, which means that the growth rates of province smooth the divergences between prefectures. This is why the two series of values on growth rate can not be matched very well. Given the factor I have outlined, I believe that the test above is still effective and the hypothesis provides a way to understand the figures of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao. Conclusions From what has been discussed above, I may draw the conclusion that Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao is not the reflection of total population or male population in Jia-qing period in Qing dynasty, but a synthesis of ding assessment in Yong-zheng period of Qing dynasty and baojia registration in Jia-qing period of Qing dynasty. Specifically, Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao of Jiangsu has three sources, i.e. (1) the figures of Haizhou prefecture and Right province except Tongzhou prefecture are calculated by total population in 1820 minus ding on duty in 1731; (2) the figures of Left province except Haizhou prefecture are calculated by male population in 1809 minus ding on duty in 1731; and (3) the figures of Tongzhou prefecture are calculated by male population in 1809 minus the sum of current ding in 1731 and original ding 11 in Shun-zhi period of Qing dynasty. During the previous study on history, scholars usually discuss a topic by collecting, evaluating, and explaining textual records in historical documents. This paper tries another way to explore historical truth by using abundant numbers from palace archive and gazetteers. The merits of such method are very obvious that figures with numerical relationships can safely reveal a phenomenon concealing in textual materials. There is no doubt that such method also has drawbacks that the calculation of numbers sometimes covers the divergences and leads to absurd results, which has to be avoided by intimate knowledge of institutional history. About the sources of Zi Sheng Nan Fu Da Xiao, there is no unique explanation and this paper just provides a way with relatively high possibility. References 1. Ho Pingti, Studies on the population of China, 1368-1953, Harvard University Press, 1959. 2. Hou Yangfang, “Reports on the Qianlong population census: an assessment”, Historical Research, 2008(3), pp.34-45. 3. G. William Skinner, “Sichuan's Population in the Nineteenth Century: Lessons from disaggregated data”, Late Imperial China, 1987(6), pp.1-76. 4. Wang Yuesheng, “Research on China’s population changes in the late 18th century”, Population Science of China, 1997(4), pp.1-13. 5. Jiang tao, Population history of late imperial China, Zhejiang People’s Press, 1993. 6. Cao Shuji, History of Chinese Migrants (Vol.5), Fujian People’s Press, 1997. 7. Zhang Xinmin & Hou Yangfang, “Sources of ‘Yuan E Ren Ding’ in da Qing yi tong zhi: A Case Study of Jiangnan”, The Qing History Journal, 2010(1), pp.37-46. 12