EDF Energy provides further details on the traffic studies on the A12 EDF Energy launched Stage 1 of its consultation on the proposals for Sizewell C in November. This first stage of public consultation runs through to 6 February, 2013. Thousands of local people have already attended a series of exhibitions, public meetings and drop in sessions, where they have been able to discuss the plans with experts from EDF Energy and have been encouraged to give their feedback on the proposals. “One of the issues which people have raised with us is to ask for extra detail about the possible impact of the Sizewell C construction traffic on the A12 through Marlesford, Little Glemham, Stratford St Andrew and Farnham,” said Angela Piearce, head of the Sizewell C Project. “People have asked for further information on how we reached the 5-15% figure for the additional traffic that the construction of Sizewell C will put on the “four villages” stretch of the A12. We are happy to provide that.” Before consulting on the Stage 1 plans, EDF Energy’s traffic surveys in May 2011 showed the two-way traffic flow recorded through the ‘four villages’ stretch of the A12 averaged approximately 16,600 vehicles per day. It is estimated that this traffic flow will increase to around 18,600 vehicles per day due to economic growth, which is unrelated to Sizewell C, by the time of the peak construction period for Sizewell C. EDF Energy's current estimates are that the traffic relating to Sizewell C at peak construction could add around 1,200 additional vehicles per day. This figure includes estimates of Heavy Goods Vehicles, Light Goods Vehicles, cars, and buses related to the development of the power station. These figures, which take account of EDF Energy's transport strategy proposals for using sea and rail for moving materials and park and ride developments to reduce traffic, represent an increase of between 6 and 7% of future traffic flows on the A12. “We used the figures of 5 to 15% in our consultation material as an approximate guide to the impact the project may have on the traffic on this stretch of the A12. This recognises there will be fluctuations in the traffic flows over time and also reflects the relatively early stages of the Sizewell C project,” explained Angela. “We are confident that the range quoted in the consultation is a sound estimate of the likely impact of Sizewell C on the four villages stretch of the A12.” “Based on these figures, our current view is that a full bypass of the four villages would not be justified by the impact of our construction traffic. We do consider that measures could be required to improve the position at Farnham Bend, and we are consulting on a number of options in relation to that.” “We are also committed to testing these numbers through further work, as we continue to shape our plans and will be carrying out further consultation with the public on our proposals before our application for final a development consent order is submitted to the Planning Inspectorate.“ EDF Energy will be doing further work to develop and refine its transport assessment. This work will be shared with Suffolk County Council and be open to their scrutiny and comment. For further details of the figures, and how they were arrived at, see the EDF Energy – Sizewell C consultation website at: http://sizewell.edfenergyconsultation.info ENDS Media Background Briefing Note: EDF Energy’s Stage 1 Consultation includes a wide range of proposals to reduce traffic associated with Sizewell C construction. These include: - A large near site accommodation campus (2,000-3,000 beds) A jetty for sea delivery of bulk materials, abnormal loads and containerised goods Investment in rail infrastructure to allow 4-5 freight trains per day to deliver direct to the construction site Use of park and ride during peak construction to reduce traffic through towns and villages closer to the construction site. These are major proposals which represent a substantial commitment by EDF Energy to reduce traffic impacts for communities close to Sizewell. In developing our proposals we are obliged to consider and assess the specific traffic and environmental impacts of Sizewell C. The transport planning guidance against which EDF Energy’s application for Sizewell C would be tested, directs EDF Energy to: • • prioritise the use of rail and sea transport where cost effective consider demand management measures (such as park and ride and a large near-site accommodation campus) before considering the provision of new inland transport infrastructure These requirements are set out in the transport section of the National Policy Statement for Energy (EN-1) and are discussed in more detail in Section 2 of the Transport Strategy document which has been published as part of the Stage 1 Consultation proposals. In arriving at the 5-15% figure for additional traffic flows through the four villages stretch of the A12, a three step process has been involved. Firstly, surveys of existing traffic flows in the road network near Sizewell were carried out in May 2011. Department of Transport guidance requires that traffic surveys for transport assessment purposes are conducted in a “neutral” month and May is a recognised neutral month. The timing and location of our traffic surveys was agreed with Suffolk County Council. The average two way flow through the village of Farnham was recorded in May 2011 as 16,624 vehicles. Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) accounted for 9% of this total flow (approx 1,500 movements). Future Traffic Flows on the four villages stretch of the A12 Secondly, estimates have been made of future traffic flows. It is standard practice in transport assessment to compare estimates of development related traffic against future, rather than current, traffic flows. EDF Energy has therefore made an estimate of future daily traffic flows on the four villages stretch of the A12 at the time of peak construction, prior to considering the impact of Sizewell C. These estimates have been made based on DFT guidance and assume economic growth, and that economic growth is accompanied by traffic growth. Future two-way traffic flows without Sizewell C are estimated to reach around 18,560 vehicles through the four villages by the time of peak construction. Estimates of Sizewell C related traffic at peak construction Thirdly, EDF Energy has made initial estimates of the amount of traffic that Sizewell C will generate during the years of peak construction. These estimates include cars, HGVs, Light Goods Vehicles (LGVs) and Buses. It should be stressed that these are preliminary estimates and are subject to change – indeed it is very likely that our detailed estimates will change as the project develops, our proposals are defined in more detail and our assumptions are refined in consultation with SCC. That said, we consider that our initial estimates are likely to be robust for a range of reasons – which are set out below: • We have considered the peak construction period in terms of workforce (5,600) • We have assumed that the peak workforce occurs at the same time as the peak movement of materials and thus deliveries to site • We have used the top end of the Stage 1 range of daily HGV deliveries which is 100300 deliveries per day - as well as considering daily fluctuation around this figure. • We have used the top end of the Stage 1 estimates of LGV movements (510 movements). • We have assumed the bottom end of the proposed size of the near/on-site accommodation campus (2,000 workers). A larger campus would result in reduced traffic movements. • We have made modest assumptions on the numbers of workers travelling by the direct buses we will provide and by rail (around 5% of the peak workforce) • We have initially assumed no walking, cycling or motorcycling to the construction site. Taking these assumptions into account we have estimated that, at peak construction, Sizewell C related traffic could add around 1,200 two way vehicle movements through the four villages stretch of the A12. This would represent an increase of between 6 and 7% on future traffic flows (and an increase of a little over 7% of existing traffic flows). This estimate of around 1,200 additional movements is composed of: Cars – approx 400 movements LGVs – approx 80 movements HGVs – approx 510 movements Buses – approx 200 movements A brief summary of how we arrived at these estimates is provided below: Cars EDF Energy’s proposals for a southern park and ride development will intercept large numbers of daily car movements to site prior to passage through the four villages – substantially reducing traffic impacts for many communities close to the Sizewell C site. Nonetheless EDF Energy estimates that there will be some additional Sizewell C related car traffic through the four villages arising from: • • • • A relatively small number of individuals resident in the four villages A small number of individuals with parking permits for the on-site car park Non-work related car trips by non-home based workers Visitors to the Sizewell C site Public Information Centre As with all our figures, the estimate that these elements will generate around 400 additional daily car movements will be subject to further work and discussion with SCC. Heavy Goods Vehicles HGVs will be on fixed routes and we estimate that around 85% of HGV deliveries will be coming from the south via the A12 and will thus pass through the four villages stretch of the A12 on their journey to and from the construction site. In our Stage 1 consultation we set out that the current estimated range of HGV deliveries at peak construction is between 100 and 300 deliveries per day. We have taken the top end of this range with 300 deliveries representing 600 movements. Applying the assumption that 85% of movements are from and to the south on the A12 gives the figure of 510 movements. We have also considered the daily fluctuation which is likely to apply to HGV movements and which could see HGV movements 50% higher on the “busiest day” of the peak construction period, which would represent 900 movements, of which 765 (85%) could pass through the four villages stretch of the A12. Light Goods Vehicles Light Goods Vehicle movements to and from the construction site will typically relate to the provision of a wide range of goods and services for the project including deliveries of specialist equipment or services, visits by electricians, mechanics, repairs, inspection and maintenance activities and so on. Of the 510 daily LGV movements used in our estimates, we have assumed that around 80 pass through the four villages. This reflects the assumption that LGV movements will be widely distributed across the local road network due to their diverse nature and origin. However, for robustness, we have also considered a scenario where LGV movements are distributed predominantly on the A12 from the south – as with HGVs – giving a figure of around 430 LGV movements (85% of 510). Buses Sizewell C related bus movements through the four villages stretch of the A12 will be a combination of direct bus services from Ipswich and park and ride buses from the proposed southern park and ride development. Our estimate of a total of around 200 movements assumes frequent bus services during the main shift changeover periods and a more limited service outside of those times. Summary of 5-15% analysis In summary, while it is still relatively early days in the development of the Project, EDF Energy has used robust initial assumptions to estimate the likely additional traffic generated by Sizewell C. These assumptions suggest an increase in traffic arising from Sizewell C of around 6-7% through the four villages stretch of the A12. Consideration of scenarios with higher HGV or LGV movements as described above could increase this estimate to around 8-10%. Equally, use of EDF Energy’s lower or mid-range estimates of HGV or LGV movements could reduce the increase to around 5%. Therefore the 5-15% range quoted in the Stage 1 consultation is considered to be robust and cautious. The use of the range reflects the consideration that the project is in its relatively early stages, detailed estimates are subject to review and are likely to change. Position in relation to Farnham Bend EDF Energy has indicated in its Stage 1 consultation that, although our current view is that we do not consider a full four village bypass is likely to be justified by our development, we do consider that mitigation measures may be justified in relation to Farnham bend. The reason we have reached this view reflects a number of considerations. The bend at Farnham is widely recognised to be most significant existing issue on the four villages stretch of the A12. The road is closest to capacity at this point due to the narrow road width and represents a safety concern, particularly when two large vehicles pass at once. Sizewell C peak construction traffic will include a higher proportion of large vehicles (HGVs and buses) than existing flows – increasing the frequency with which two large vehicles could pass at once. Initial work also suggests Sizewell C traffic could lead to capacity constraints at Farnham at peak network periods. For these reasons we have included a number of mitigation options for the bend at Farnham in our Stage 1 consultation. Further work and next steps In the sections above we have provided a high level analysis of the likely additional traffic flows through the four villages. This provides a broad indication of the potential scale of Sizewell C impacts. As we have indicated in our Stage 1 Transport Strategy document there is much further work to be done to refine and develop our transport assessment. This work will include: • Further traffic modelling of additional development and network peak hours • Future work to consider in more detail congestion, road safety, pedestrian amenity, noise and air quality impacts. We will continue to work closely with Suffolk County Council in this area and will publish further more detailed information through the consultation phase.