The Influence of Divided Government on Policy-Making and Bureaucratic Autonomy John D. Huber Columbia University Charles R. Shipan University of Iowa and Madelaine Pfahler University of Michigan August 14, 1998 Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, September 3-6, 1998. The authors would like to thank Maureen Comfort and Todd Austin for excellent research assistance and The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation for financial support. Abstract Most studies of legislative control of agencies have focused on national level institutions. In this paper we undertake a comparative study of political control by looking at state legislatures and the control of Medicaid policy. We develop and test a theory about the conditions under which state legislatures should opt to rely on detailed legislation (ex ante control) in order to limit the discretion of agencies. Our theoretical argument demonstrates that several factors can influence the use of ex ante control and that these factors need to be considered interdependently. More specifically, we look at the interaction between institutional context, legislative capacity, and the availability of alternative mechanisms for control. In addition, we demonstrate that different types of divided government should have different effects on ex ante control. We then test this theory using a dataset consisting of all state-level bills in the area of Medicaid and health policy from 1995 and 1996. Introduction It would be difficult to overstate the role that political bureaucracies play in policymaking. Bureaucracies implement policies that legislatures have enacted, and they create policies where legislatures have avoided doing so. They can act to regulate industries, to distribute benefits and costs, and to redistribute wealth. They tackle policy areas as disparate as telecommunications, the environment, transportation, and public health. Bureaucratic involvement in policymaking is a pervasive condition of modern political life. Given the important role that bureaucracies play in policymaking, it is not surprising that political scientists have long sought to understand the relationship between legislatures and agencies. In particular, scholars have attempted to ascertain whether, to what extent, and under what conditions legislators influence the actions of agencies. Understanding this relationship is essential to democratic theory, as it focuses attention on the legitimacy of the role played by unelected policymakers in a representative democracy. Furthermore, it sheds light on the actions, abilities, and motivations of legislators. Much of the focus of this literature has been on the U.S. Congress, and much of the debate has centered on the question of whether in fact Congress controls the bureaucracy.1 This is a difficult question to answer, as it requires fairly precise information on legislator preferences and agency outputs. But while settling the empirical issue has been difficult, in addressing this question, scholars have clarified several strategies for control, including the use of budget processes,2 routine ex post (or contemporaneous) oversight3, and ex ante mechanisms whereby legislators use legislation itself to structure agency decision-making processes.4 1 See Huber and Shipan (1998) for a review of recent theoretical developments in this literature. Earlier reviews can be found in Ogul (1976), Rockman (1984) and Ogul and Rockman (1990). 2 Recent theoretical treatments include Banks (1989) and Bendor, Taylor, and Van Gaalen (1987). 3 See, for example, Aberbach (1990) and Weingast and Moran (1983). 4 Examples of research focusing on ex ante control include McCubbins, Noll, and Weingast (1987, 1989), Drotning (1992), McNollgast (1992), Moe (1990a), and Macey (1992). For overviews and critiques of this approach, see Robinson (1989), Hill and Brazier (1990), Mashaw (1990), and Spence (1997). Recently, scholars have begun to develop and test arguments about how features of the political environment influence strategies for ex ante and contemporaneous control. Epstein and O’Halloran (1994), for example, develop a model which provides a logic for why legislators will be more likely to limit agency discretion during divided government. They further develop and test these ideas in Epstein and O’Halloran (n.d.). Bawn (1995) looks at a similar set of issues, focusing primarily on tradeoffs between taking advantage of the expertise that bureaucrats possess and controlling agency drift. Her theory indicates that the optimal level of discretion that legislators give to agencies will be a function of a systematic interaction between the technical and procedural uncertainty that legislators face. Although this research has done a great deal to improve our understanding of delegation processes in Congress, it suffers from limited variation in potential explanatory factors. A focus on Congress does allow for variation across time. However, it allows for little variation in many of the institutional details – the institutional context – that we will argue play a significant role in determining the design of delegation. Put differently, the parochial focus of this theoretical literature has made it difficult to address more general issues about how the structure of decisionmaking institutions in the political environment influences strategies for legislative control. Ignoring the broader institutional context for political decision-making seems unwise. It seems likely, for example, that if the political institutions in a particular system facilitate ex post control, that ex ante mechanisms should be less important in that system. Similarly, the impact of variables like divided government and technical uncertainty on discretion strategies should not be the same everywhere, but should depend on factors such as the institutional resources that legislators possess. More generally, we should expect the importance of the control strategies that have been identified in the previous literature to vary with specific features of a system’s political institutions. Our primary objective in this paper is to develop and test comparative arguments about how several types of political institutions influence the propensity of legislators to limit agency 2 discretion in the legislation that they adopt. Our analysis, then, focuses explicitly on ex ante means of control, with the objective being to understand when, and under what conditions, legislators will attempt to spell out in detail what actions bureaucracies should or should not take. The explanatory variables that we wish to draw attention to can be grouped roughly into three categories. First, there is the political context, which captures whether legislators will have incentives to engage in efforts to limit agency discretion. The political context has often been the central focus in studies of Congress, with scholars looking in particular at conflict between the legislature and the president (which varies over time). The second two categories we examine, however, are generally fairly constant within systems over time, but vary across systems. Professional capacity influences whether the legislature has the ability to engage in ex ante forms of control. And alternative institutional arrangements provide legislators with alternative (and usually ex post) means of influencing the actions of agencies. We argue that all of these factors should not be treated as having merely independent effects, but rather that they are important in conjunction with each other. The political context may have an independent effect on a legislature’s use of ex ante control, as it can provide the incentive for a legislature to engage in such control. But the extent to which the political context influences ex ante control is also dependent on whether or not alternative institutional arrangements exist for exercising legislative control over agencies. In other words, legislators’ decisions about whether or not to engage in ex ante control are dependent on whether they think they can rely on alternative means of control.5 Similarly, the extent to which the political context influences ex ante control depends on the legislature’s professional capacity. Some legislatures, for example, might want to engage in ex ante control, but may simply lack the political capacity 5 The only study that explicitly looks at the trade off between ex ante and ex post means of control is Bawn (1997). In this study, Bawn identifies which members of Congress are likely to favor ex ante control and which are likely to favor ex post control. For a discussion of how ex ante control might affect ex post control, see Olson (1996). 3 do so. Thus, professional capacity can be viewed as a necessary condition for the legislature to engage in ex ante control. To test our theoretical argument about the conditions under which legislators will use ex ante controls, we rely on a novel data set that looks at all bills related to health care and Medicaid enacted by U.S. states over a two year period.6 The data includes considerable institutional variation, as states differ greatly in terms of the three categories discussed above – political context, legislative capabilities, and alternative institutional arrangements. By looking at a single policy area across all states, we have variation on the variables in these categories, which allows us to test the extent to which these factors influence the use of ex ante control. Thus, this dataset allows us to avoid a limitation of most previous work on legislative control, which has been limited to examining only the institutional variation that occurs across time.7 The paper proceeds as follows. In the following section, we spell out our theoretical argument about how different variables will affect ex ante control. In so doing, we attempt to refine arguments about the impact of divided government on ex ante control, distinguishing in particular between divided government where the legislature is itself divided, and divided government where the legislature is unified. We also spell out how the various forms of divided government will influence legislative strategies to limit discretion in various institutional contexts. After describing the theoretical argument, we discuss why Medicaid health policy is an appropriate area in which to test our arguments. We then present our empirical tests. The conclusion summarizes the main results and discusses ideas for future work. When will legislators attempt to limit agency discretion? Our argument is a simple one about costs and benefits. Limiting agency discretion by specifying precise policy details in legislation is costly to legislators. Since there are alternative strategies 6 Below we spell out the advantages of focusing on this data. 4 for controlling bureaucrats that do not require ex ante legislative effort, the amount of detail that legislators place in legislation should depend on the magnitude of these costs, and on the expected benefits of paying them. If autonomous bureaucrats are likely to generate policy outcomes that legislators desire, then using legislation to micro-manage agency behavior is unnecessary. In other words, because it provides few benefits, micro-management should be infrequent when bureaucrats and legislators have similar preferences. If, on the other hand, autonomous bureaucrats are unlikely to act in the interests of legislators, then there can be a benefit to using legislation to micro-manage agencies. Whether legislators engage in micro-management should depend on the costs of doing so. If the costs of writing detailed instructions are sufficiently low, legislators will be more likely to spell out in legislation the precise details of how the agency should make and implement policy. As these costs increase, such efforts to limit agency discretion should decline. Stated abstractly, the argument is very simple. The key, of course, is to specify how the political and institutional environments affect the expected costs and benefits of limiting agency discretion. That is the task that will occupy most of this section. Divided government and legislative control of agencies We begin by asking, “What factors should affect the benefits to legislators of ex ante control?” The answer depends largely on a comparison of the expected outcomes with and without ex ante efforts to control. Previous research, of course, has provided an important foundation for answering this question, focusing our attention on both the preferences of the actors and the technical complexity inherent to the policy choice. The benefits of granting discretion should obviously increase as the objectives of legislators and agents converge (Bawn 1995, Epstein and O’Halloran 1994, n.d.). If legislators 7 Ideally one would have data over time and across political units. In this paper we have only crosssectional data, although the collection of data on a longer time series is in progress. 5 and bureaucrats want to achieve the same outcomes, then ceteris paribus, legislators will want to give bureaucrats substantial autonomy (because if bureaucrats are given limited discretion, they will have fewer incentives to gain expertise, and fewer opportunities to use it). If legislators and bureaucrats want to achieve different outcomes, on the other hand, legislators will want to grant bureaucrats less autonomy, and instead specify in legislation the details of the decision procedures to be followed, and the outcomes to be pursued. We therefore need to understand the factors that affect the degree of congruence between legislative and agency preferences. One obvious factor is divided government. Divided government should influence the benefits of limiting agency discretion because executives typically have a strong impact over the preferences and actions of leaders in executive agencies. Thus, if the legislature is of one party, and the executive of another, we should expect the legislature and agency to have more divergent preferences than when executive and legislature are of the same party. And if the preferences of the agency diverge from those of legislators, then the immediate benefits of specifying details in legislation should be larger than if these preferences converge. Epstein and O’Halloran (n.d.) provide evidence to support this argument in the U.S. Congress.8 In bicameral systems, however, divided government can take one of two forms. It may be the case that during divided government, a unified legislature opposes the chief executive. In other words, one party controls both chambers of the legislature but does not control the executive. We call this divided-unified government. Alternatively, it may be the case that the legislature is itself divided, with one chamber being of the same party as the chief executive, and the other chamber being of a different party. This we call divided-divided government. It is 8 Hamm and Robertson (1981) also provide evidence about the impact of divided government on ex post efforts by state legislators to control agencies. 6 important to distinguish between these two forms of divided government, as the costs to legislators of adopting ex ante control strategies will differ across the two.9 The legislature, of course, cannot unilaterally determine the amount of agency discretion that exists in the acts that become law. The chief executive typically must sign legislation in order for it to take effect. And in exactly the situation in which the legislature most wants to write detailed legislation – divided government – the chief executive most wants to avoid detailed legislation, preferring instead that the agency be free to do his or her bidding, relatively unconstrained by the legislature. The chief executive should accept any legislative proposals that lead to an outcome that he or she prefers to the status quo. This may often be a rather large set, and during dividedunified government, the unified legislature opposing the executive can choose any policy that it likes from this set of acceptable policies. But during divided-divided government, the two chambers must engage in bargaining and compromise in efforts to choose the outcome that will ultimately be proposed to the chief executive. The chamber that shares the same preferences as the executive during divided-divided government will have few incentives to include language in legislation that constrains agencies, and will often have incentives to leave agencies unconstrained (to take advantage of agency expertise). It should therefore fight attempts by the chamber that opposes the chief executive to include ex ante control language. Thus, although we should expect some increase in ex ante legislative control over bureaucrats during any type of divided government (because the chamber opposing the executive has some bargaining leverage), it should be more difficult for the legislature to impose ex ante control during divided-divided government than during divided-unified government. In sum, the impact of divided government on ex ante efforts to control agencies should depend on which type of divided government exists. Such ex ante efforts should always be larger 9 Clarke (1998) also differentiates between these two types of divided government. He shows that budgetary conflict between the legislature and the executive increases under divided government, but only 7 under any type of divided government than under unified government. But the legislature’s ability to use legislation as an instrument for control should be greater during divided-unified government than during divided-divided government. Professional capacity, divided government, and ex ante control. Should these arguments about divided government be independent of the institutional context? Research on American state legislatures suggests that that answer should be “No.” In particular, this research suggests that legislative professionalization, or legislative capacity, shapes relationships between legislators and agencies. Rosenthal (1981), for example, finds that oversight efforts increase with legislative staff and the time available for work. And Hamm and Robertson (1981) find that legislative professionalization influences oversight strategies. 10 Professional capacity should also be crucial for engaging in ex ante control. Legislators must have the ability to write the legislation that will constrain the agency in the ways that legislators desire. Even if the political environment indicates substantial benefits from writing detailed legislation, legislators will not do so unless they can afford the costs. That is, any time legislators are deciding how much detail to put into legislation, they need to consider the costs of doing so. One type of cost is informational. If legislators attempt to use legislation effectively to give precise instructions to agencies about what sorts of policies to adopt – that is, if they attempt to limit agency discretion in the implementation process – then legislators need information and expertise about which specific policies will yield desired outcomes. They also will need to know which specific groups need to be consulted, and how conflicts between these groups should be resolved. The cost of obtaining this information will be a function of the legislators’ knowledge and expertise. when the legislature is unified (i.e., what we call divided-unified). 10 A good overview of legislative professionalization can be found in Squire (1992). 8 Knowledge and expertise may depend on experience – legislators who have been around a long time may learn important things. Information costs may also be a function of the legislative institutions themselves. If legislators have extended staffs, it will obviously be easier for them to gather information that is necessary for limiting discretion. And if the legislature is highly institutionalized, with a large number of specialized committees and support staff, then it will also be easier for the legislature to draft detailed legislation. So the ability of legislators to write legislative details will often be due to factors regarding the professionalization of the legislature itself. Opportunity cost is also important. One type of opportunity cost is simply time, and in particular the amount of time available to the legislature for conducting its business. If there is plenty such time, then the costs of paying a great deal of attention to a particular issue will be relatively low. But as the time available to discuss issues decreases, the opportunity cost of spending a great deal of time on a particular issue will increase. If legislators decide to specify in great detail what an agency should do in a specific policy area, they will be forced to spend less time on other policy areas or on other legislative activities. On the other hand, if legislators simply delegate responsibility over a policy to an agency, they will have more time to spend on these other activities. Another type of opportunity cost is one faced by individual legislators themselves. Not all legislators can devote all of their professional energies to their legislative careers. Often times, legislative careers are part time jobs that are relatively low paying. If an individual legislator depends heavily for his or her livelihood on activities unrelated to being a legislator, then the opportunity costs of devoting a great deal of attention to legislative responsibilities will be relatively large. In such situations, legislators should be relatively less inclined to attempt to micro-manage agencies. These observations suggest that we should embed our arguments about divided government into an institutional context that is shaped by the degree of professional capacity. In 9 particular, although divided government should always influence the benefits of ex ante control, the ability of legislators to take advantage of these benefits should depend in large part on their professional capabilities, conceptualized as informational resources and opportunity costs of legislative effort. The greater these resources, and the lower the costs, the greater the (positive) impact that divided government should have on legislative efforts to limit agency discretion. And since the costs to the legislature of limiting agency discretion are smallest during dividedunified government, the impact of professional capacity on efforts to limit agency discretion should be greater during divided-unified government than during divided-divided government. Alternative institutions for legislative control of agencies. Legislators, in weighing the costs and benefits of writing detailed legislation, must also consider their alternative options for controlling agency behavior. As the costs of alternative methods decline, legislators should be more willing to use these substitutes, and less willing to pay the costs of limiting agency discretion in legislation itself. It is therefore important to consider how the institutional context shapes the costs of alternative control strategies, and thus the benefits of limiting discretion. In this section, we consider three such alternatives: the role of the courts, legislative review of agency rulemaking activities, and legislative influence over agency appointments. Institutions that shape the reliability of these alternatives, we argue, should influence legislative strategies vis-à-vis agency discretion. That is, there should be a substitution effect, with strategies to limit discretion being influenced by the availability of alternative strategies for influencing agencies. But this substitution effect should manifest itself only when there are incentives to limit discretion (e.g., during divided government). Moreover, if legislative professionalization affects the ability to limit discretion, then the substitution effect should increase with legislative professionalization. We spell out these arguments below. 10 First, consider the role of the courts, and in particular the selection of judges. Scholars have widely noted that legislators can use the courts as an ally in the quest to ensure compliant agency behavior (Melnick 1994, Shipan 1997). If agencies try to adopt rules that are contrary to the court's interpretation of the legislature's wishes, then the court can force the agency to change its behavior. But whether such an ex post strategy for legislative control of agencies is reliable depends on the preferences of the judiciary, which are largely influenced by institutional arrangements. If the courts can be relied on to enforce the wishes of the legislature, then the benefits of limiting agency discretion will be lower than in situations where the courts are unlikely to side with the legislature and against the agency. The key institution in this context is the method of selecting judges. Judges can be chosen in a variety of ways, with some rules being more likely than others to result in judges that have the same preferences as the legislature. In some of states in the U.S., for example, judges are appointed by the governor, with little or no input from the legislature. During divided government, this obviously will not result in judges that can be trusted by the legislature to do its bidding. In other states, however, the legislature has a direct or indirect role in judge selection. In general, we should expect that if the institutions for selecting judges favor the executive, the opportunities for legislators to use judges to enforce legislative decision-making during divided government should decline. The use of ex ante controls during divided government should therefore be greater when the legislature plays little role in selecting judges. Next, consider the ex post opportunities that legislators themselves have to review agency activities. The argument here is straightforward. There exists considerable variation in the opportunities that legislators have to influence the rules that agencies adopt during the policy implementation process. If legislatures have a direct, institutionalized opportunity to instruct agencies about the types of rules that they wish to have promulgated, and if legislatures have an opportunity to veto or even amend and approve agency rules (as is possible in West Virginia), then legislatures can obtain their desired outcomes ex post and the benefits of specifying precise 11 details in legislation will decline. If no such opportunities exist, then incentives to limit discretion will increase. Thus, legislators should be less likely to use legislation to limit agency discretion in situations where institutional arrangements permit legislators ex post opportunities to influence agency behavior. Of course, such arguments only apply where legislators expect agents to act contrary to their interest (e.g., during divided government). Finally, consider agency appointments. This variable works somewhat differently than the two previously discussed institutions, both of which are about ex post control of agency behavior. Control of agency appointments is an ex ante strategy that influences the legislature’s incentives to limit agency discretion in much the same way as divided government. Above we argued that divided government should affect the benefits of ex ante efforts to control agencies through its influence on the preferences of bureaucrats in executive agencies. But the influence of divided government on agency preferences does not always depend exclusively on the preferences of the chief executive. In some systems, the executive can proceed with agency appointments rather autonomously, while in others the legislature can play an important role in the process of choosing the personnel to head agencies. The impact of divided government on agency discretion should therefore be influenced by the institutions specifying executive and legislative roles in the appointment of legislative personnel. As the legislative role increases, the benefits to legislators of limiting discretion during divided government should decline because divergence between legislative and agency preferences should decline. The legislature's power to approve agency appointments may not, one should recognize, actually permit a great deal of control over the nature of agency appointees. After all, there is no real status quo in such appointment games (McCarty and Razaghian 1998), and the executive may therefore have considerable latitude, even when the legislature’s role appear large. The other two alternative institutions for affecting control do not suffer this defect as they both allow ex post influence over agency decision-making. We may therefore reasonably expect the substitution effect to be strongest for the two ex post control mechanisms. 12 To this point, we have ignored the impact of legislative professionalization on the substitution effect arguments. But like divided government, the impact of alternative methods for agency control on legislators’ discretion strategies should depend in part on legislators’ professional capabilities. If these capabilities are low, then the impact of alternative possibilities for control should not affect ex ante efforts (because ex ante efforts will be low regardless). But as these capabilities increase, then ex ante efforts to control legislators should be smallest in situations where alternative institutional arrangements permit ex post control. We also have not discussed the impact of the two different types of divided government on the substitution effect. Here we should expect the substitution effect to be strongest when the costs of limiting agency discretion are largest. Since these costs are higher during divideddivided government than during divided-unified government, the substitution effects should be largest during divided-divided government. ** The hypotheses that emerged from the discussion in this section are summarized in Table 1. There are two important points to note about these hypotheses. First, our expectations about legislative efforts to limit agency discretion always involve an interaction between the political context, the professional capacity of the legislature, and the political institutions that shape alternative strategies for control. The political context affects the need to limit discretion – if legislators and bureaucrats wish to achieve the same objective (because, for example, government is unified), then control of the agency is not problematic. Professional capacity affects the ability to limit discretion – if divided government creates the need for control, legislators must have the resources and ability to do so. And if the political environment and legislative capacity interact to create incentives and possibilities for control, then the extent to which legislators seek to limit discretion depends on whether alternative, ex post instruments of control exist. Limiting discretion ex ante may be less important if it is possible to affect agency by these other means. (Table 1 about here) 13 Second, when we think about divided government, we must be careful to specify the precise type of divided government. The cost to legislators of limiting discretion is greater during divided-divided government than during divided-unified government. Thus, all else equal, legislative efforts to limit discretion will be greater during divided-unified government than during divided-divided government. And the institutional substitution-effects should be strongest during divided-divided government. The next task is to test these hypotheses. Limiting agency discretion: Medicaid and state health policymaking Our measure of ex ante efforts to limit agency discretion in a state is the total number of new words that the state enacted into law in 1995-96 (in non-appropriations legislation) on issues related to any aspect of medical care that is provided to Medicaid recipients. We therefore will be analyzing a cross section of states following the 1994 election. In this section, we describe the central substantive focus of our data – the Medicaid program – and we argue that the number of words that legislators devote to this topic is a reasonable proxy for legislative efforts to limit agency discretion (with more words implying more limits on discretion). Why Medicaid and medical care? We focus on health care and Medicaid for five reasons. First, Medicaid requires political decision-making on a roughly similar set of issues in all states. The Medicaid program was created by Title XIX of the Social Security Act in 1965. It is a jointly funded Federal-State entitlement program that provides medical care to low income and certain needy populations. Although the federal government sets broad eligibility and benefit guidelines, each state is responsible for setting its own specific eligibility standards, and states have considerable autonomy in developing their programs. Each state determines the scope of services available, payment rates to providers, and methods for program administration. Consequently, there are considerable differences in the programs across states. An individual who is eligible for Medicaid 14 in Minnesota, for instance, may not be eligible in Nevada, or may be eligible for a quite different package of services. And a physician who provides Medicaid patients with services in Michigan might receive compensation quite different from what a physician providing similar services in Iowa might receive. Second, in the 1980s and 1990s rising Medicaid expenditures, an increase in the number of Medicaid eligibles, and a push for health care reform at the national level put Medicaid reform at the top of state political agendas. According to the most recent Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) figures, total Medicaid program payments increased from $47.7 billion dollars in 1987 to $152.9 billion dollars in 1996 (HCFA 1998). The number of individuals eligible for Medicaid across all states also increased from 23.1 million in 1987 to 36.1 million in 1996 (HCFA 1998). Medicaid spending is of particular concern, however, not just because it is increasing, but because it is becoming a larger share of the states’ total health care spending. According to a report by the Congressional Research Service, Medicaid spending as a share of state and local expenditures increased from 1.0 percent in 1966 to 5.7 percent in 1990 (Congressional Research Service 1993). For state and local governments, Medicaid represents the single largest category of health spending (Congressional Research Service 1993, p. 112). As might be expected, however, the burden of Medicaid spending is not consistent across the states. In 1995, total Medicaid spending as a percent of total state budgets ranged from a low of 6.1 in Alaska to a high of 38.2 in Louisiana (Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured 1998). Most states fell within the 10 percent to 25 percent range. This cost pressure attracts the attention of legislators trying to control spending and of interest groups wanting a share of the profits, both of which contribute to Medicaid policy being an important agenda item. According to a House committee aide in the Florida legislature, “the line-item this year for Medicaid HMOs alone is 800 million dollars,” which gets “lots of attention from a lot of lobbyists. They all want a piece of it….[it] is micromanaged to death.” 15 In addition, events at the federal and state level have encouraged states to take up health care and Medicaid reform efforts. After the unsuccessful attempt at national health care reform and with the midterm 1994 Republican landslide election, policy makers wanting health care reform have largely focused on the states (Sparer 1996, Leichter 1996, Schneider 1997). Several states, including Tennessee, Hawaii, Oregon, Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Washington had made efforts at major state health care reform by 1995, which helped to highlight the role that the states could play in health system reform nationally. Furthermore, in 1993, the Clinton administration issued new guidelines regarding waivers from federal rules. The outcome of these guidelines, which were designed to streamline HCFA’s review process, was to encourage states to reform their Medicaid programs (Schneider 1997). In sum, rising costs and a focus on health care reform by the Clinton administration has put the reform of state health care systems, especially of the Medicaid program, on state agendas in the 1990s. As a result, we are confident that in a two-year cross section of data we have a large enough selection of bills that we will get a reasonably accurate measure of legislative directives to agencies on this issue. Third, the politics of Medicaid are contentious. Powerful interest groups representing both providers and recipients are acutely interested in the vast amount of money at stake. Yet the political situation is complicated by the fact that neither the provider nor recipient groups are themselves homogeneous. Providers such as nursing homes, home-health care agencies, community clinics, pharmacists, physicians, and hospitals all vie for available money, although the degree to which each of these groups is interested in the Medicaid program in any state will depend on the compensation offered to them. Recipients, including the elderly, disabled, and low income families with children, desire comprehensive services. To muddy the landscape further, with the move to managed care in some form in most states, managed care companies along with traditional insurance companies have also entered the scene. The heterogeneity of these groups means that Medicaid politics involves claimants with varying amounts of political and economic resources (Kronebusch 1997). Therefore, the politics of Medicaid may vary from state to state 16 depending on the cohesiveness of groups, the resources available, the receptiveness of state policymakers and the specific issue at hand. But the universal conflict of interest across states guarantees heated political debate and differences in the objectives of the major political parties. Fourth, Medicaid and health care politics present difficult informational problems to legislators. Decisions regarding the Medicaid program are many and varied. Policymakers need to decide on reimbursement levels for services. They need to determine eligibility guidelines, including issues such as deciding which additional groups, outside the federal mandates, the state wants to cover. There are regulatory issues for nursing homes and other care facilities. And there are decisions about what types of providers should be allowed to provide Medicaid services. When a state moves to Medicaid managed care, a whole new set of issues arises. Policymakers need to decide which populations should be moved into managed care arrangements. They must consider whether to implement managed care statewide or county by county. In order to secure managed care arrangements, they must decide on a method for selecting managed care organizations to provide services and negotiate how to educate and enroll the recipients in the new program. These decisions cover a spectrum of informational needs. At the least, state policymakers are interested in the effects of different financing and administrative arrangements on the cost, quality, and availability of health care. Yet, each of these questions is huge in and of itself. Thus, state lawmakers clearly face very real costs if they wish to micro-manage agency behavior by adopting legislation that limits discretion. Finally, state Medicaid agencies have a great deal of responsibility in administering Medicaid programs. At a minimum, they are required to make detailed implementation and management decisions. For example, they track eligibility and manage enrollment in the program, they are responsible for payments to hospitals, physicians, pharmacists and managed care organizations, and they may design and oversee the bidding the process for managed care contracts. Yet the degree of discretion that agencies will have can be minimized or maximized though legislative action. For example, in some states detailed decisions of how to move to 17 Medicaid managed care were made in the legislature, where details were spelled out in hundreds of pages of substantive bill text. In other states, the legislature charged the agency with designing and implementing the move. The law consisted of a few lines and granted close to complete discretion to the agency. That Medicaid agencies have so much responsibility, but can still be granted more discretion, is significant. Legislators have real choices about the benefits and costs of granting this discretion under different political and institutional arrangements. In sum, across all states, legislators have found it necessary to tackle health care issues relating to the Medicaid program. Because Medicaid is such a complicated and expensive program with contentious politics on diverse issues, state lawmakers face difficult political and informational problems. The politics of Medicaid, therefore, present very real choices about how much discretion to grant to agencies that already are vested with a great deal of responsibility for this program. Measuring the dependent variable. Our dependent variable is the sum of new or “added” words contained in all relevant legislation for the 1995-96 time period. We identified relevant legislation in each state by searching Lexis’s “Advanced Legislative Service” data base. For each state we used the search terms “Medicaid” and “medical assistance,” as well as any state-specific names for Medicaid programs (such as “MediCal” in California or “MC+” in Missouri).11 We retained any nonappropriations bills that turned up in this search that were related to the provision of medical care. If bills were only partially relevant (i.e., only partly about health care) we edited out the irrelevant portions. We then used a macro in Microsoft Word to count all the words in the legislation that were new.12 11 We include 46 states in our analysis. In the future we plan to add California, Virginia, and Arizona to the dataset. Nebraska is omitted from the analysis because it has a unicameral legislature. 12 Lexis publishes the entire text of adopted acts, but it includes in this text notation that enables users to identify which portions of the text were added, and which previously existed. 18 We feel that the raw number of words is a reasonable proxy for the efforts by legislators to exercise ex ante control over agency discretion. Our justification for using this proxy is straightforward: the more words included in legislation, the more detailed and complex are its instructions to agencies. When designing a new children’s health initiative, for example, it takes a great many more words for the legislature to specify who is to be covered, what sorts of enrollment techniques should be used, which procedures should be followed, and so on, than it does to simply ask the agency to “do something” without providing any additional instructions. Thus, word count serves as a strong, if imperfect, proxy. In the tests below, we expect that the number of words should increase with the incentives and opportunities to limit agency discretion. The empirical tests Table 2 presents the results of our tests of the hypotheses in Table 1. The dependent variable, Added words, is described in the previous section. A positive coefficient indicates more words, and thus greater effort to limit agency discretion. The main independent variables measure the various forms of divided government, legislative professionalization, and alternative institutions for agency control. In addition, since legislative attention to Medicaid-related legislation should be influenced by the demand for such legislation, we should expect the number of words to increase with the size of a state’s Medicaid program. Thus, all of the OLS models we estimate contain a control variable, Medicaid expenditures, which is the Medicaid expenditures/per capita in the state. This variable is statistically significant and positive in all models. (Table 2 about here) In column 1 we include only Divided government, a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if the government is either divided-divided or divided-unified.13 The coefficient has the wrong 13 In our sample, 15 states have divided-unified government, 8 states have divided-divided government, and 23 states have unified government. 19 sign, and its standard error is enormous, thus providing no support whatsoever for the general hypothesis about divided government. In column 2 we break down divided government into its component parts. Divideddivided is a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if there is divided-divided government in the state; Divided-unified is similarly defined. We expect the legislature to do more to limit discretion in divided-unified than during divided-divided government. The results do not support this hypothesis, as the coefficients for the two divided governments are both measured with considerable error (although the coefficient for Divided-unified is, as expected, much larger than the coefficient for Divided-divided). Our theory, however, holds the divided government (properly defined) should matter not only on its own, but also in conjunction with other factors. Thus, next we consider the interaction of divided government with legislative capacity. In unreported bivariate tests we considered the impact of several legislative organization variables on Added words. These included legislative compensation, the number of legislative staff, whether the legislature meets annually or not, and the number of legislative committees. Of these, only the compensation variable had a statistically significant impact. We therefore use Compensation as the variable tapping legislative capacity. It measures the annual compensation to members of the lower house.14 Column 3 includes the interaction of the two divided government variables with Compensation, as well as the divided government variables by themselves. Our expectation (H3) is that as compensation increases, the impact of divided government on discretion should also increase, with the effect being larger during divided-unified government than during divideddivided government. For compensation sufficiently large, this is precisely what we find. The coefficient for Divided-unified is negative and statistically significant, but the coefficient for Divided-unified×Compensation (also significant) is positive. If one considers the two coefficients 14 We obtained the data for Compensation and other state level variables discussed below from The Book of the States. 20 together, on can see that discretion decreases (Added words increases) during divided-unified government if legislative compensation in a state exceeds 12,798 dollars. In our data, the median salary is 12,500, so the divided-unified hypothesis is supported for exactly half of the states. Or, put differently, there exists a necessary level of legislative capacity, below which the divided government hypothesis is incorrect. The Divided-divided coefficient, by contrast, is not statistically significant (p=.14, twotailed test), and the Divided-divided×Compensation is significant, but much smaller than the corresponding coefficient for divided-unified. If one takes these estimates as true (i.e., ignores the insignificance of Divided-divided), then legislators will do more to limit agency discretion under divided-unified than divided-divided government whenever legislative compensation is greater than 5,826 dollars.15 As expected then, if legislative capacity permits legislators to limit discretion, efforts to do so will be much greater during divided-unified government than during divided-divided government. The model in column 4 introduces the two variables that enable us to test the substitution effect for the ex post control variables. Courts is a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if state political institutions require appellate court judges to be chosen either by the legislature or by a state wide election using a partisan ballot. In such cases, a legislature can more comfortably rely on the courts to have preferences similar to its own. And Legislative veto is a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if state political institutions allow some form of veto by the state legislature over administrative rules. Each of these variables is included in the model in four different ways: interacted with the two forms of divided government (e.g., Courts×Divided-divided), and interacted with the two forms of divided government and Compensation (e.g., Courts×Divideddivided_Compensation). We expect that for salaries sufficient large, the substitution effect 15 This salary is exceeded by all but 11 states in our sample. 21 variables should have negative effects, and that these effects will be greater (i.e., more negative) during divided-divided than during divided-unified government. Several results from the model in column 4 are supportive of our arguments. The coefficient for the courts variable in divided-divided government is negative, large, and very precisely estimated.16 During divided-unified government, on the other hand, the court variables are measured with considerable error, and could hardly be considered statistically distinguishable from zero. Thus, in situations where the costs of limiting discretion are high (divided-divided government), and where courts are most likely to have preferences similar to those of legislators, legislators are less inclined to limit agency discretion in their efforts to control agency behavior. The same substitution effect is not found during divided-unified government, when the costs to the legislator of limiting discretion are much lower. The legislative veto produces similar results. There is no statistically significant effect during divided-unified government. But there is the expected substitution effect during divideddivided government, if salaries are sufficiently large (greater than 18,258 dollars). Thus, during divided-divided government, legislators who have the professional resources to limit discretion will be less likely to do so in situations where they have a veto over agency decisions. Finally it is worth noting that the results for the simple divided government variables are fairly stable when compared with column 3. The net effect of the two divided-unified variables, for example, is positive whenever salaries exceed a modest 7,627 dollars. The results are less precisely estimated for the divided-divided variables, and the net effect is not positive in this model unless salaries exceed 28,554. A consistent story that comes out of this analysis, then, is that the precise nature of divided government matters a great deal when it comes to assessing legislative strategies to limit discretion. When there is a unified legislature against the governor, limiting discretion is attractive, regardless of the available substitutes for controlling agencies. 16 The Courts_divided-divided variable is omitted because given the small number of observations in this cell, it is almost perfectly correlated with Courts_divided-divided_compensation. 22 But when the legislature is itself divided, it is much more difficult to limit discretion, and substitute strategies have great appeal. In column 5 we add a variable to test the substitution effect for legislative control over agency appointments. Finance is a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if state political institutions allow state legislators to approve the selection of the cabinet official in charge of financial affairs.17 This variable, recall, is of somewhat questionable theoretical relevance because it is unclear how much a legislative veto over gubernatorial appointments should affect the nature the appointments. We should also note that our Finance variable is likely measured with considerable error. In the Book of the States data, the table providing this information about executive appointments is very complicated and difficult to interpret, with footnotes adding qualifications for nearly every state. Since we do not have a great deal of confidence that Finance is measuring what we want it to, a somewhat more skeptical interpretations of these results is warranted. Not surprisingly, given the collinearity created by interacting all the variables with divided government and compensation, the standard errors jump around quite a bit in comparison with column 4. Nevertheless, the results for the Finance variables in Column 4 do not support the substitution effect argument. Finance_Divided-unified and Finance_Dividedunified_Compensation are both significant. But contrary to expectations, for compensation sufficiently large, the effect is positive (implying that legislators are granting less discretion to agencies when legislators have some say over agency appointments). In these results, the net effect has the wrong sign whenever legislators earn more than 11,124 dollars. We also find that the results for Finance interacted with the divided-divided variables are not statistically significant. Our expectation for this variable was that it would be more negative that the results 17 We also examined a variable that focused on the legislature’s role in choosing the cabinet official in charge of health. These variables are virtually identical. 23 for the Finance variable interacted with the divided-unified government (because substitution will be most attractive when the costs of limiting agency discretion are highest). The judicial appointments results are fairly consistent with column 4. All of the variables are now statistically significant. During divided-unified government, the effect, as with the administrative appointments variable, is again in the wrong direction in states where legislators earn more than 11,940 dollars. But during divided-divided government, we find the expected (negative) substitution effect, and it is quite large With respect to the legislative veto of agency rules, all of the variables are measured with considerable error, although the parameter estimates give us the expected negative effect in most cases. During divided unified, the net effect is negative whenever the legislative compensation in the state is less than 39,296 dollars, which covers the vast majority of states in our sample. During divided-divided government, the net effect is negative whenever compensation is greater than 18,608 dollars. Conclusion States are often described as laboratories of democracy. The usual connotation of this statement is that states represent ideal locations in which to try out different policy ideas and options. However, states can be viewed as laboratories in a different sense: they allow us to test and develop theories that cannot be tested, or perhaps even developed, with a sole focus on the United States Congress. In this paper we have used the states in exactly such a manner. Our central interest was in determining which factors affect legislative control over agencies. More specifically, we looked at ex ante control, which legislators implement by enacting detailed legislation that limits agency discretion. State legislatures provide an ideal testing ground for our theory because they, unlike Congress, provide variation on many of our key explanatory variables. 24 Our theoretical approach builds on two key insights. First, like many other studies, we acknowledge that divided government should influence the legislature’s incentive to limit agency discretion. However, we take this a step further by noting that there are two different types of divided government: divided-unified, in which one party controls both houses of the legislature but not the executive branch; and divided-divided, in which each chamber of the legislature is controlled by a different party. As we detail in the paper, these two types of divided government should result in different levels of ex ante control. More specifically, we expect that ex ante control will be more common during divided-unified government than during divided-divided government, and similarly that it will be more common during either type of divided government than during unified government. Second, institutional choice – here, the decision to limit discretion -- is shaped by institutional context. Theories of institutional choice must understand and take into account the relevant institutional context in which specific institutions are chosen. To this end, we argue that there are a set of explanatory factors that need to be considered interdependently. The political context – for example, whether government is divided or unified – can provide legislators with the incentive for wanting to implement ex ante control of agencies. At the same time, however, we argue that the legislature’s professional capacity also needs to be taken into account. A legislature that has little professional capacity may have the incentive to use ex ante control, but it may not have the capability to do so. Thus, the political context, which we measure using the types of divided government discussed above, and the legislature’s professional capacity, which we measure by using the legislature’s salary, need to be interacted. Similarly, our theory demonstrates that we need to take into account whether alternative arrangements exist for the control of agencies. To the extent that these exist, legislators will have less of a need to rely on ex ante control. When legislators can use a legislative veto to strike down agency actions with which they disagree, or when they can rely on like-minded courts to force agencies to act in certain ways, they are likely to rely on these less costly substitutes rather 25 than ex ante control. Once again, however, these factors need to be interacted with variables that denote whether government is divided-divided, divided-unified, or unified. A legislature that has the incentive and the ability to engage in ex ante control may not do so because of the availability of other, less costly, options. To test our theoretical argument, we use a dataset consisting of all state-level laws relating to Medicaid and health care passed in 1995 and 1996. Regressing the number of new words of legislation added for each year and for each state on a set of independent variables, we find that the results generally support our hypotheses. First, we show that divided government by itself cannot account for the variance in our dependent variable. However, when we also take into account the professionalization of the legislature, and whether there are alternative methods of control, we find evidence that divided government does influence ex ante control. The findings generally show that legislatures need not only the incentive to implement ex ante control, not simply because they have the incentive to do so, but also because they have the capability and lack alternatives. It is worth emphasizing that although less detailed legislation implies greater discretion, an increase in discretion does not imply decreased control. In fact, our results show that after controlling for the political environment, cross-state variation in discretion is accounted for in part by how much opportunity for ex post control exists. Thus, in order to account for control, analysts must recognize that ex post control can serve as a substitute for ex ante control.18 Future research should build on this work in several ways. First, while we have included a number of important independent variables, several other variables also should be considered. Factors such as term limits, sunset laws, the use of legislative hearings, and other 18 In this respect our work is somewhat similar to that of Bawn (1997). However, as we noted earlier, her work focuses on intra-institutional effects, whereas ours focuses on inter-institutional effects. 26 contemporaneous means of control might affect a legislature’s use of ex ante control.19 Furthermore, many states use appropriations legislation to provide significant substantive instructions to agencies. We need to take such legislation into account, either by subsuming it within our current dependent variable, or by controlling for it as an independent variable.20 Second, we plan to extend our dataset to cover a ten-year period, providing us with variation across time as well as across states. This will allow us to examine a number of other issues concerning the dynamics of the relationship between legislatures and agencies. It is possible, for example, that states in which divided government is the norm will show very different patterns of ex ante control than will states in which divided government occurs only infrequently. A state that has had divided government for a number of years may be less likely to have more new words added in any given year than a state that has only recently moved to divided government. The logic here is that in the former state, the legislature may well have spelled out details in the past. A longer time series will allow us to examine such possibilities. On a related note, a longer time series will allow us to examine the degree to which electoral competitiveness affects ex ante control. A state in which the same party regularly controls certain branches of government may be less likely to use ex ante control than a state in which parties alternate control. Similarly, legislators in states with a high level of turnover may be less likely to rely on ex post tactics, fearing that their opponents would be in power in the future and in control of these ex post tools. Thus, the substitution effect derived from alternative institutional arrangements, such as the legislative veto, may be conditional on the degree of political competition within a state. 19 We also might use more nuanced versions of some of our variables. In our analysis, for example, the legislative veto is coded as a simple dichotomous variable, yet clearly differences exist across states in how this mechanism works. The same is true for court and agency appointments. 20 In addition, we might also treat such legislation as a dependent variable in its own right. Interviews we conducted in Michigan suggest, for example, that states may be more likely to include substantive language in appropriations bills under divided-divided government than under other forms of government. 27 While all of these additions and topics will allow us to refine our analysis, our current approach already has considerable power. Divided government does affect the degree of legislative detail, but the exact effect of divided government is contingent on whether government is divided-divided or divided-unified. Furthermore, divided government might provide the incentive for legislators to engage in ex ante control, but legislators also need the capacity to do so and need to lack viable substitutes for such control. 28 Table 1 Summary of hypotheses about legislative efforts to limit agency discretion H1: Legislative efforts to limit agency discretion should be greater during divided government than during unified government. H2: Legislative efforts to limit agency discretion should be greater during divided-unified government than during divided-divided government. H3. During divided government, legislative efforts to limit discretion should increase with legislators’ professional capacity. The effect of legislative capacity should be greatest during divided-unified government. H4. During divided government, legislative efforts to limit agency discretion will be weakest in systems where political institutions permit legislators to influence agency appointments than in systems where they do not. This substitution effect will increase with legislative professionalization, and will be stronger during divided-divided government than during dividedunified government. H5. During divided government, legislative efforts to limit agency discretion will be weakest in systems where the institutions for selecting judges are likely to result in judges with preferences that are similar to those of legislators. This substitution effect will increase with legislative professionalization, and will be stronger during divided-divided government than during dividedunified government. H6. During divided government, legislative efforts to limit agency discretion will be weakest in systems where political institutions create opportunities for ex post legislative review of agency rules. This substitution effect will increase with legislative professionalization, and will be stronger during divided-divided government than during divided-unified government. 29 Table 2: OLS Models of State Legislative Efforts to limit agency discretion (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Medicaid Expenditures 44825** (15234) 44865* (15802) 35024* (15391) 34953* (18392) 54442* (23614) Divided Government -218 (5690) -- -- -- -- Divided-unified -- 334 (7205) -15997* (7154) -20060 (12502) 27481 (17222) Divided-divided -- -1261 (5485) -11511 (7583) -15134 (9194) -8026 (5829) Divided-unified x Compensation -- -- 1.25* (.61) 2.63* (1.15) -1.78 (1.45) Divided-divided x Compensation -- -- .48* (.29) .54 (.36) .27 (.18) Courts x Divided-unified -- -- -- 5306 (12343) -23642* (10383) Courts x Div-uni x Compensation -- -- -- -.89 (1.1) 1.98* (.73) Courts x Divided-divided -- -- -- -- -- Courts x Div-div x Compensation -- -- -- -8.9** (.78) -6.52* (2.70) Legislative Veto x Divided-unified -- -- -- -7788 (13979) -18863* (10360) Leg Veto x Div-uni x Compensation -- -- -- -.79 (1.4) .48 (1.08) Legislative Veto x Divided-divided -- -- -- 209971** (27274) 137699* (76565) Leg Veto x Div-div x Compensation -- -- -- -11.5** (1.5) -7.38 (4.66) Finance x Divided-unified -- -- -- -- -42048* (15467) Finance x Div-uni x Compensation -- -- -- -- 3.78** (1.25) Finance x Divided-divided -- -- -- -- -4036 (203670) Finance x Div-div x Compensation -- -- -- -- -.01 (.79) -8143 (8807) -8165 (9109) -2839 (8620) -2801 (9979) -13027 (13026) Independent Variable Constant 30 R-Square .15 .15 .29 .34 .47 N= 46 46 46 46 45 Note: The dependent variable is Added Words to Medicaid-related legislation in 1995-96 (see text for details). 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