Oregon Employment at New Highs.
We Moved Beyond Recession!
SAIF Seminar
May 7, 2015
Record Employment Levels.
Key Facts from March’s News Release
∗ Oregon’s unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent
∗ Lowest rate since April 2008
∗ The U.S. rate was 5.5 percent
∗ Last time Oregon’s rate was lower than nation’s was in 1996
∗ Nonfarm payroll jobs increased 4,300
∗ Close to the average monthly gain over the last 12 months
∗ Employment was up 56,100 (3.3%) over the year
∗ Oregon’s job growth continues to outpace the U.S.
∗ The sector adding the most jobs in March was health care
and social assistance.
There are fewer unemployed people in Oregon.
That means there’s less competition for the available
jobs.
Oregon’s unemployment rate is at its lowest level since April 2008
and is below the U.S. rate for the first time since January 1996.
Oregon's Unemployment Rate Can Drop Below U.S.
(Bars Represent NBER Recessions)
14.0
11.9% in November
and December 1982
11.9% in April
and May 2009
12.0
10.0
Oregon
8.0
6.0
United States
4.0
2.0
0.0
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research
Unemployment rates have fallen in most areas of the state, but the
rates in rural areas are generally well above those in urban areas.
Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
14.0
12.0
Percent of Labor Force
10.0
8.0
6.0
Non-metro
All Other Metro Areas Combined
4.0
Oregon
Portland Area
2.0
0.0
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Jan-13
Jan-15
The states low overall average is impacted heavily by the northwest
counties.
Seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate
was lowest in Benton
County (4.4%) and
highest in Grant County
(9.7%).
Higher Rates in Southern and Central Oregon Counties
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, March 2015
Harney County saw the
largest improvement
over the year with a
drop of 3.6 percentage
points.
Eleven of Oregon’s 36
counties have rates at
or below the statewide
level of 5.4%.
Unemployment Rates
4.4% to 5.4%
5.5% to 6.9%
7.0% to 8.3%
8.9% to 9.7%
The number of unemployed Oregonians is essentially back to
pre-recession levels.
Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment:
Unemployed Persons, Oregon Statewide
Seasonally Adjusted, 2005 to Present
250,000
Lowest
April 2007: 95,000
200,000
Highest
May 2009: 237,000
Current
March 2015: 106,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Most unemployed Oregonians didn’t lose their jobs. They either left
their job or have recently started looking for one.
Oregon Unemployment by Reason [Trend]
160,000
Entrants
140,000
Job Leavers
Job Losers
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Source: Oregon Employment Department, CPS
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
While Portland may have relatively low unemployment rates,
it’s important to remember it has a lot of unemployed people.
Number of Unemployed by Area
(Seasonally Adjusted)
120,000
Number of Unemployed
100,000
80,000
Portland Area
60,000
All Other Metro Areas Combined
40,000
20,000
Non-Metro
0
10
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Not only are there far fewer unemployed Oregonians …
There are many more jobs and job openings.
Context: the recession’s job losses were awful; the recovery
time was painful.
Oregon Employment Loss by Recession
% Job Loss from Peak Employment
0%
-2%
-4%
1948
-6%
1953
1957
1960
-8%
1969
1973
1980
1990
-10%
2001
2007
Dec. Forecast
Source:
-12% Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, December 2014
0
1
2
3
4
Number of Years from Employment Peak
5
6
7
But we made it. We finally regained the number of jobs lost
during the recession.
Percent Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month
Percent of Job Losses in Oregon
Since Peak in December 2007
1.0%
0.0%
Regained the jobs
by November 2014.
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
147,500 jobs
were lost.
-8.0%
-9.0%
-
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Number of Months After Peak Employment
78
84
90
96
It took five years of job gains to add back the number of jobs lost
during the recession.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Total Nonfarm Payroll: 1990 - 2015
1,800,000
1,700,000
Employment
1,600,000
1,500,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
Employment has finally surpassed pre-recession
peak and is up 169,200 jobs since the low point in
January 2010.
1,200,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
The private sector was the driver of our growth.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Total Private Sector: 1990 - 2015
1,500,000
Employment
1,400,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
Private sector employment has surpassed the prerecession peak and is now 168,600 above the
January 2010 recessionary low of 1,292,700.
1,000,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Health services continues to see strong job growth.
Over the year:
Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Private Health Care and Social Services: 1997 - 2015
230,000
Ambulatory:
+3,600
210,000
Hospitals:
+1,800
Nursing and
residential:
+2,300
190,000
170,000
Social assistance:
+2,500
150,000
130,000
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Professional and Technical Services includes a huge variety of firms:
accounting, veterinarian services, computer systems design.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Professional and Technical Services: 1997 - 2015
90,000
85,000
Employment
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Construction employment has improved since the recession’s
low …but remains far below pre-recession levels.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Construction: 1990 - 2015
110,000
100,000
Employment
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Manufacturing is a relative success story in Oregon … especially
in the Portland area.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Manufacturing: 1990 - 2015
240,000
Employment
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Almost all components of manufacturing have shown growth.
Oregon Manufacturing Employment Compared with Last Year
March 2014 to March 2015
0
Wood products
Primary metals
200
Fabricated metals
200
300
Machinery
1,100
Computer and electronic products
800
Transportation equipment
1,200
Food manufacturing
-200
Paper manufacturing
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
As we showed with unemployment rates, economic conditions
vary widely from urban to rural areas.
Employment Levels Relative to 2001
Portland Area, Other Metro Areas, and Combined Non-Metro Counties
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Index (2001=100)
120
Albany, Bend, Corvallis,
Grants Pass, Eugene,
Medford, and Salem
PortlandVancouverHillsboro
110
Oregon
100
Non-metro
Oregon
90
80
2001
2003
2005
2007
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Statistics
2009
2011
2013
Most regions are seeing strong job growth, but growth is
slower along the Coast and in Eastern Oregon.
Over-the-Year Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change by Region
March 2014 to March 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Central
Southern
Willamette
Valley
Portland 5
Eastern
Coast
So … are these new jobs low-wage, low-skill … or highwage, requiring lots of education … or … ?
The answer: Oregon is adding all kinds of jobs right now. And many
require education beyond high school.
Oregon Job Growth and Average Pay by Industry
Mar. 2014 - Mar. 2015 Job Growth, 2014 Average Pay
Professional and business services
$60,590
Health care and social assistance
$47,729
Manufacturing
$64,000
Leisure and hospitality
$18,660
Retail trade
$28,000
Local government
$47,651
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
$47,519
State government
$47,469
$59,582
Financial activities
Construction
$53,322
Wholesale trade
$63,468
Private Educational services
$34,078
Other services
$29,125
Information
$70,640
Federal government
$69,777
Mining and logging
$50,259
-2,500
Source: Oregon Employment Department
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Over-the-Year Job Change
10,000
12,500
15,000
Job gains are evening out across low-, mid-, and high-wage industries,
but only lower-wage industries have regained all the jobs lost.
Oregon Private-Sector Job Loss and Job Growth*
2008 Recession
* three years and three quarters of recovery; seasonally adjusted
-60,011
55,396
Higher-wage industries
$20.97 - $43.74/hr
3Q2009-2Q2014
1Q2007-3Q2009
-62,022
53,113
Mid-wage industries
$12.19 - $20.69/hr
88,390
-79,943
Lower-wage industries
$9.29 - $12.10/hr
-100,000 -80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000
0
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Net Change in Number of Jobs
Source: Oregon unemployment insurance wage records
Job growth is expected to continue.
Oregon was forecasted to regain our pre-recession peak level of employment in
early 2015. Strong job growth in October and November got us there earlier.
Oregon Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Quarterly History & Projection, 1990-2017
2,000,000
1st Quarter 2015
(return to peak)
1,900,000
Total Nonfarm Employment
1,800,000
1,700,000
1,600,000
1st Quarter 2010
(low point)
1,500,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
1990:1
1992:1
1994:1
1996:1
1998:1
2000:1
2002:1
2004:1
2006:1
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative Services, March 2015
2008:1 2010:1
2012:1
2014:1
2016:1
Job growth is expected in all major industries…
Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector Over The Year
(1Q 2015 - 1Q 2016)
Professional and Business Services
Retail Trade
Leisure and Hospitality
Health Care and Social Assistance
Financial Activities
Local Government
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Metals and Machinery
Other Durables
Other Nondurables
Wood Products
Private Educational Services
State Government
Computer and Electronics
Transportation Equipment
Mining and Logging
Food Manufacturing
Federal Government
0
Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, March 2015
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Competition for Workers.
Businesses need workers.
Half of them say they’re having a difficult time finding
workers to fill their current vacancies.
Oregon had roughly 39,400 vacancies in Winter 2015.
Snapshot of Oregon Job Vacancies
Winter 2015
Vacancies
39,359
Average Hourly Wage
$17.53
Full-time Positions
68%
Permanent Positions
Requiring Education Beyond High School
89%
24%
Requiring Previous Experience
70%
Difficult to Fill
49%
• Surveyed 2,700 private
employers with two or
more employees
• Found highest average
wage since the
quarterly Oregon Job
Vacancy Survey began
in the winter of 2013.
Health care and social assistance accounted for
about one-quarter of job vacancies.
Oregon Job Vacancies by Industry, Winter 2015
Industry
All Industries
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Management, administrative, and waste services
Financial activities
Manufacturing
Private educational services
Other services
Natural resources and mining
Information
Vacancies
39,359
9,064
5,575
5,483
3,120
2,341
2,283
2,267
2,238
1,974
1,950
1,342
1,048
412
262
• Health care and social
assistance regularly tops
the list of industries with
vacancies.
• Leisure and hospitality
and retail trade also had
many job openings in the
winter.
Multnomah-Washington had many of the state’s
vacancies, but they were proportional to the area’s
share of total employment.
Oregon Job Vacancies by Geography
Oregon Statewide
Multnomah-Washington
Lane
Clackamas
Northwest Oregon
Central Oregon
Mid-Willamette Valley
Southern Oregon
South Coast
Eastern Oregon
39,359
16,474
4,298
3,946
3,577
3,009
2,633
1,796
1,590
1,219
multi-region or unknown area excluded
• Northwest Oregon had
more vacancies than
you might expect from
its share of total
employment
• The Mid-Willamette
Valley had fewer
vacancies than might
be anticipated based on
its share of
employment.
Businesses told us that roughly half of
those vacancies were “difficult to fill”.
Difficult-to-fill vacancies:
∗ Are more likely to require previous work experience
∗ Provide slightly higher wages, on average
∗ Are more likely to be full-time positions
Oregon Job Vacancies by Difficult to Fill Status, 2013
All Vacancies
Difficult to Fill
Not Difficult to Fill
Vacancies
32,602
15,576
17,026
Average
Hourly Full-time Permanent
Wage Positions
Positions
$15.23
68%
78%
$16.15
74%
77%
$14.16
62%
78%
Requiring
Education
Requiring
Previous
Beyond
High School Experience
29%
69%
29%
72%
30%
67%
Knowing why vacancies are difficult to fill
might help us better prepare workers …
Reasons Provided for Difficult-to-Fill Vacancies
Lack of certification
2%
Lack of soft skills
5%
Lack of technical Lack of training
skills
1%
High education
2%
requirements
<1%
Lack of applicants
23%
Lack of work
experience
9%
Lack of qualified
candidates
24%
Unfavorable working
conditions
17%
Other
3% Location
3%
Low wages
11%
Ongoing Resources
∗ Online Resources
∗ QualityInfo
∗ Our blog
∗ @ORemployment
∗ Workforce Analysts
∗ Special reports
Graham Slater, Research Administrator
Oregon Employment Department
Graham.J.Slater@oregon.gov
(503) 947-1212
To find this presentation online, go to
www.QualityInfo.org
and use the search box to look up my name
Join the conversation:
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Twitter @OrEmployment