Paraguay's market
potential for the
regional
automotive
supplier industry
Study
Stuttgart, October 7, 2015
Management summary (1/2)
> Paraguay has recently demonstrated a very stable political environment and good prospects – It can become the
next rising star in Latin America:
– Paraguay is strategically located in the heart of South America, close to key consumption and production
markets, a good trade hub for both Argentinean and Brazilian OEM clusters
– Paraguay is one of the few countries in LatAm that has a stable political environment that is liberal and market
oriented
– Paraguay provides a stable economic environment with low debt rates and moderate inflation in past years –
Furthermore, positive GDP development is expected for the future
– However, Paraguay is heavily dependent on the economic development of neighboring countries such as Brazil or
Argentina – Since there are no OEMs in the country, there is hardly any domestic market for auto parts
> Paraguay offers favorable investment conditions, especially for products with high labor intensity and low logistics
requirements:
– The generally positive business climate and regulatory environment are complemented by a very attractive tax
scheme: the Maquila program
– Infrastructure that is sufficient for most companies in the country's two metropolitan areas, Asunción and Ciudad
del Este – Only the availability and stability of electricity connections requires a case-by-case evaluation
– Labor costs are one key advantage, but the availability of skilled labor is limited and has to be checked in advance
– Logistics depend strongly on target clients and the required logistical effort for the specific product
Source: Roland Berger
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Management summary (2/2)
> Many international companies have already invested in Paraguay – Their business model usually shows high labor
intensity coupled with low infrastructure and logistical requirements
> Risks include the dependency on Brazil & Argentina, the limited opportunity to benefit from Brazilian incentive
programs, etc.
> Roland Berger identified four key success factors companies should pay attention to when considering an investment
in Paraguay:
– Consider overall Mercosur market development – Key consumer markets for automotive products are in Brazil and
Argentina, with both countries facing recession
– Be clear on target clients – Frozen zone and supply chain configuration should be aligned with target clients: most
OEMs accept the additional complexity in exchange for more attractive prices
– Conduct a structured location search project – The location within both Mercosur and Paraguay must be selected
carefully
– Involve local experts at an early stage – Local specifics that might influence a decision can change quickly; thus
companies should involve independent partners able to provide objective assessment
> All in all, Paraguay is an attractive alternative for production in Mercosur, but a case-by-case evaluation of the key
decision factors for the planned investment project is required – Local experts should therefore be involved
Source: Roland Berger
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We'd like to discuss three points regarding Paraguay's market
potential for the regional automotive supplier industry
Agenda
1.
Country overview
2.
Strategic considerations
3.
Relevance for suppliers
Is Paraguay a rising star in Latin America?
Is the environment favorable to foreign investment?
For which suppliers might Paraguay be a hidden champion for LatAm
production?
Source: Roland Berger
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A. Country overview:
Is Paraguay a
rising star in Latin
America?
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Paraguay is the same geographic size as Germany but has only
about 6.5 m inhabitants
Paraguay at a glance
Roads, ports, industrial and free trade zones
General information
> Capital: Asunción
– 17 departments (+1 capital district), 245 districts
> Population: ~6.5 m people
BRAZIL
> Language: Spanish, Guaraní
> Currency: Guaraní [PYG]
PARAGUAY
– Conversion rate [Sep 2015 PYG/USD]: 5,555
> Main economic activity: Sugar, cement, textiles,
beverages, wood products, steel, metallurgy, electricity
ARGENTINA
Asunción
= Ports (freshwater)
= National highways
= Railroads
=City > 500,000 inhabitants
= Free trade zones
Ciudad del Este
> Economic indicators
– GDP 2014 [USD bn]:
– GDP real growth 2014 [%]:
– Inflation 2014 [%]:
– Unemployment rate 2014 [%]:
30.9
4.4
5.0
5.5
= Industrial zones
Source: World Bank; press clippings; Roland Berger
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Paraguay is strategically located in the heart of South America,
close to the main consumption and production markets of Mercosur
Snapshot of Paraguay and Latin America
Venezuela
Colombia
Key figures for the region
Ecuador
Population GDP
[m]
[USD bn]
Mercosur
250
~3,000
Paraguay +
1,300 km
120
~1,500
Paraguay alone
6.5
Brazil
Peru
Bolivia
Paraguay
Chile
São Paulo
Curitiba
Argentina
~30
In reach within 1,300 km:
> About 50% of Mercosur GDP
> About 50% of Mercosur population
> Key LatAm automotive cluster – No
local production in Paraguay
Source: MIC; REDIEX; Roland Berger
Rio Grande
do Sul
Córdoba
Legend
Buenos
Aires
Uruguay
Main automotive exports destinations
Mercosur
1,300 km radius
Largest automotive OEM production clusters
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Several economic drivers are slowing the largest economies in
LatAm, Paraguay still demonstrates a good pace of growth
Latin American economic assessment
Main challenges
Ø Growth2)
2010-2014
GDP1), 2014
[USD bn]
Country
Brazil
2,403
Mexico
1,178
Argentina
521
Colombia
349
Chile
258
Peru
181
Uruguay
Paraguay
48
31
1) Real GDP, constant 2010 prices 2) Average real GDP growth
Source: Oxford Economics Database; Roland Berger
Ø Growth2) Political
2015-2020e crisis
2015e2)
-2.8%
2.1%
0.4%
3.1%
5.0%
4.3%
5.1%
4.3%
Commodity price
1.8%
2.5%
2.9%
Currency
develop. Inflation
3.4%
2.7%
3.2%
3.7%
3.3%
3.9%
2.4%
2.9%
5.1%
No challenge/dependency
4.5%
4.4%
3.4%
4.3%
Critical situation/strong dependency
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The Paraguayan currency Guaraní remained stable compared to
other LatAm currencies
Exchange rate development vs. USD – Monthly average [base 100 = Jan 1, 2010]
245.3
214.3
147.0
116.6
2010
2011
BRL
ARS
Source: Thomson One; Roland Berger
2012
UYU
2013
2014
2015
Sep
2015
FX rate
Sep 16, 2015
9.3
3.8
28.7
5,450
> The desolate state of the
Brazilian economy has
seen the BRL devaluating
since January 2015
> Rating agencies recently
downgraded Brazil,
currency expected to
devaluate even further
> Uruguay devaluation also
driven by high inflation
> Argentina controls the
purchase of FX and keeps
currency stable through
parity of import x exports
PYG
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The stable macroeconomic conditions are the result of low debt
rates and moderate inflation in past years
Economic stability of selected LatAm countries
Government debt [% of GDP, 2014]
Inflation of consumer prices [%, 2004-2014 p.a.]
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Chile
Paraguay
Peru
Venezuela
Guatemala
Bolivia
Ecuador
Mexico
Haiti
D. Republic
Uruguay
Colombia
Costa Rica
Panama
Argentina
El Salvador
Honduras
Brazil
11
15.1%
16.6%
17.9%
21.3%
24.4%
26.2%
27.8%
32.0%
32.1%
37.0%
37.4%
38.7%
38.8%
38.9%
43.0%
44.2%
45.0%
Source: ECLAC; Oxford Economics; Roland Berger
Argentina
10
9
Uruguay
8
7
6
Brazil
5
Paraguay
4
3
2
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
58.9%
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Paraguay is high on the economic climate index among all LatAm
countries – But it is heavily dependent on neighboring countries
Economic climate index (ICE) [index points, July 2015]
Venezuela
20
Colombia
Remarks
107
Germany
Ecuador
60
133
Brazil
Peru
48
119
Paraguay
99
Chile
68
Argentina
66
Uruguay
93
> Only Peru and Colombia show a
higher index score than Paraguay
since they are recovering slightly
from the commodity crisis – Peru
stood at 100 points in April, Colombia
at only 87
> Paraguay is currently negatively
influenced by the crisis in Brazil –
Index dropped in August from 127 to
99 points
> ICE index is calculated by FGV São
Paulo University and the IFO on a
quarterly basis for LatAm
Last available report for LatAm dated July 15 – Next update mid/end of October
Source: FGV/ IFO; Roland Berger
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Paraguay provides a stable political and economic environment for
investors as well as good access to the entire Mercosur market
Intermediate summary
Paraguay is strategically located in the heart of South America, close to key consumption and
production markets, a good trade hub for both Argentinean and Brazilian OEM clusters
Paraguay is one of the few countries in LatAm that has a stable political environment that is
liberal and market oriented
Paraguay provides a stable economic environment with low debt rates and moderate
inflation in past years – Furthermore, positive GDP development is expected for the future
However, Paraguay is heavily dependent on the economic development of neighboring
countries such as Brazil or Argentina – Since there are no OEMs in the country, there is hardly
any domestic market for auto parts
Source: Roland Berger
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B. Strategic
considerations: Is
the environment
favorable to foreign
investment?
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For companies interested in investing in Paraguay there are 5 key
questions to be answered
Criteria for investment
1
2
3
4
5
Source: xxx
Does Paraguay offer an attractive BUSINESS CLIMATE?
Is the INFRASTRUCTURE sufficient for our production needs?
Is there an educated WORKFORCE available at reasonable cost?
Is the REGULATORY and TAX ENVIRONMENT favorable?
Is inbound and outbound LOGISTICS feasible for us?
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1
Business climate
Independent indices show that Paraguay is ranked among the top
countries for starting and running a business in LatAm
Global ranking 2015 [index points, rank] – Ease of…
…starting a business
…dealing with construction permits
171
167
165
146
126
114
84
60
59
78
81
85
86
90
63
73
90
65
Brazil
181
43
Ecuador Argentina Paraguay Germany
Peru
Colombia Uruguay
Chile
174
48
Argentina Brazil
162
56
129
62
61
59
43
8
65
76
76
77
79
87
Uruguay Bolivia
Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Germany
…enforcing contracts
…registering property
146
138
130
119
89
80
60
45
42
55
68
70
75
79
59
61
79
56
Uruguay
Brazil
168
38
Bolivia Argentina Germany Ecuador Paraguay Chile Colombia
118
111
106
90
88
64
63
54
55
57
58
58
64
64
Colombia Brazil
Bolivia Uruguay Paraguay Ecuador
13
77
Chile Argentina Germany
xx Rank
Source: doingbusiness.com; Roland Berger
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2
Infrastructure
Especially the two metropolitan regions, Asunción and Ciudad del
Este, have high standards of infrastructure
Infrastructure and degree of development of selected states
Most relevant states
Alto Paraguay
Central & Asunción is the industrial heart of
1 Paraguay, the department is home to most of the
international companies operating in Paraguay
Boquerón
Concepción
Caaguazú is a transition state between the two
2 economic centers of Paraguay – Central and Alto
Paraná
Amambay
Presidente Hayes
San Pedro
Roland Berger industrial
aptitude index
Very developed
Developed
Cordillera
Asunción
Central
1
Caaguazú
2
Paraguarí Guairá
Ciudad del Este
3
Caazapá
Acceptable
Unsatisfactory
Canindeyú
Ñeembucú
Itapúa
Misiones
4
Insufficient
Alto
Paraná
Alto Paraná (Ciudad del Este) is strategically
3 well located for Brazil. Most land-based exports
pass through the department and manufacturing
industries incl. automotive suppliers are growing
Itapúa is an important entry port for exchange
4 with Argentina – the department sustains itself
from trading and services
Index based on GDP, total population, population density
and basic infrastructure (public facilities and services, utilities and transportation)
Source: MIC; REDIEX; Roland Berger
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3
Workforce
The Paraguayan workforce is young and willing to work – More than
1/3 of the population is between 15 and 24 years old
Workforce1) by department, 2013 ['000, HC]
Unemployment rate [%]
5.0
5.3
6.0
6.7
3.7
2.6
4.4
4.7
Paraguay's population by age
group [%; 2012]
55 to 64
3,275
254
45 to 54
1,094
167
1) Economically active population
Source: DGEEC; Tusalario.org; Roland Berger
6% 5%
9%
33%
0 to 14
35 to 44 11%
394
TOTAL Asunción Central Alto
Paraná
Over 64
228
297
San Caaguazú Itapúa
Pedro
16%
842
Other
25 to 34
20%
15 to 24
Total pop.: 6,672 m
Potential economically active population
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3
Workforce
Paraguay offers very competitive labor costs – Many people with
jobs in the informal sector even work for less than minimum wage
Labor cost comparison
Total labor costs, 2014 [USD] – Based on minimum wage (automotive)
Weekly shift [h]
48
48
Labor specifics – Paraguay
> Workforce is motivated to work in
industry even for minimum wage
44
1,408
1,035
711
(102%)
426
(70%)
Social contributions2)
Minimum wage
110%
494
99
(25%)
395
Paraguay
697
609
> Unionization rate is very low,
especially compared to automotive
clusters in Argentina and Brazil
+185%
> Labor law very "flexible", e.g.
layoffs can be made easily with
limited severance payments
> Usually high workforce stability due
to formal jobs even at minimum wage:
– Stable income prospects of at least
the minimum wage
Argentina
Brazil1)
– Legal registration of employment
contract
1) Minimum wage for automotive supplier in Sao Paulo; 2) Include welfare/union taxes, benefits (13th salary) and layoff expenses
Exchange rates: PYG/USD 4,500; BRL/USD 2.15; ARS/USD 8.5
Source: FIESP; Ley 213; Codigo del Trabajo; Roland Berger
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4
Regulatory and tax environment
Union influence in Paraguay is very limited, especially compared to
neighboring countries like Argentina and Brazil
International and local judgment of union impact in Paraguay
Flexibility of wage determination1) [2012]
Quotes
Chile
5.5
Colombia
5.2
Paraguay
5.1
Ecuador
4.3
Brazil
4.3
Bolivia
4.2
Venezuela
Uruguay
Private investor
"I always pay attention to the needs of
my employees – compared to other
Paraguayan companies they receive
fair salary and working conditions, thus
I've managed to keep unions out of my
companies"
Entrepreneur in cement & meat processing
"…The third general strike in
Paraguay's history took place on
March 26th and passed off
peacefully.…The 24-hour strike was a
low-key affair…"
3.7
Argentina
"Unions are basically non-existent,
especially under Cartes they lost even
more power"
The Economist
2.7
"Union activities are the same all over
Paraguay – on a very low level"
German entrepreneur
2.3
> Unions have limited impact in Paraguay compared to other Latin
American countries
> Entrepreneurs and officials also confirm the limited power of unions
> In addition, there are no differences between the departments –
Union activities are at a low level all over the country
1) Scale of 1 (centralized bargaining process) to 7 (up to each company individually)
Source: World Economic Forum, Interviews; Roland Berger
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4
Regulatory and tax environment
For companies producing in Paraguay and then exporting, Paraguay
has an attractive "tributo único" of 1% with its Maquila program
Overview of the Maquila program – Benefits
Value added in Paraguay
1% tax: "tributo único"
Invoice 1% tax:
"tributo único"
Calculation scheme for "tributo único"
Parent
company
> Raw material
> Capital goods
> Logistics
3rd party
Case I
Case II
"Maquiladora"
>
>
>
>
> Parent company sends raw materials and
receives the goods produced in Paraguay
> 1% "tributo único" applies to the value
added in Paraguay
Case II
Export
Import
Paraguay Foreign country
Case I
Labor cost
Depreciation
Local raw material
Services
> Maquiladora receives raw materials from
3rd parties outside Paraguay and sells
directly to clients outside Paraguay
> 1% "tributo único" applies to the total
invoiced to 3rd parties
Sub-maquiladoras
Source: CNIME; Roland Berger
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5
Logistics
Just-in-time delivery to key LatAm automotive OEM clusters is
feasible – Delivery times range from 1 to 3 days
Map of logistics connectivity
Brazil
São Paulo – 1,069 km
Brazil
Curitiba – 646 km
Rio Grande do Sul –
1088 km
Asunción
Ciudad del Este
Argentina
Argentina
Buenos Aires – 1,256
km
Encarnación
Legend
Waterways
National highways
Railroads
Airports
Ports (freshwater)
Medium/large city1)
Free trade zones
Industrial zones
Remarks
> OEMs operate a just-in-time
system
> Therefore, outbound logistics is
crucial
> Delivery times range from 1 to 3
days, the bottleneck being the
border crossing at Ciudad del Este
> Brazil offers the "Linha Azul"
regime, which grants faster
customs dispatch for registered
companies with good control of
tributary processes in foreign trade
Córdoba – 1,200 km
1) More than 150/300 thousand inhabitants; LV: Light vehicles CV: Commercial vehicles
Source: Paraguay Logistico; DINATRAN; Anuario de estadísticas y censo
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In general, Paraguay provides favorable conditions for investments –
A specific investment decision requires case-by-case evaluation
Summary of key decision factors
1
2
3
4
5
Does Paraguay offer an attractive BUSINESS CLIMATE?
The business climate is favorable and many companies are already present –
However, inefficiencies and transparency are still behind European level
Is the INFRASTRUCTURE sufficient for our production needs?
In the two metropolitan areas, Asunción and Ciudad del Este, the infrastructure is
sufficient
Is there an educated WORKFORCE available at reasonable cost?
Labor costs are very attractive and the two metropolitan areas boast a young and
willing potential labor force – Level of education to be checked case by case
Is the REGULATORY and TAX ENVIRONMENT favorable?
Both regulatory and tax legislation are very investor friendly – The Maquila program
offers attractive tax scheme for exporters
Is inbound and outbound LOGISTICS feasible for us?
Key automotive clusters in Brazil and Argentina can be reached by just-in-time delivery
from Asunción and Ciudad del Este – Higher cost to be checked case by case
✓ Favorable
Source: Roland Berger
✓
(✓)
!
✓
!
! Take specifics into consideration
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C. Relevance for
suppliers: For
which suppliers
might Paraguay be
a hidden champion
for LatAm
production?
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Companies from various sectors have entered Paraguay to produce
and export to Mercosur markets
Examples of companies with installed facilities in Paraguay
Clothing
Agro products
Industry
Automotive
Others
Nañereta
Investors' comments
PROS
CONS
"Thanks to reduced production costs, we can afford to compete with
Asian rivals; the margin and added value of our product is low and
we must try to reach their price"
Luiz Saldanha (SR Productos)
"Production in Paraguay is on average 30% cheaper than in Brazil"
"It's not as easy as doing business in Brazil, though; if you do not
have enough prior information you risk falling into bribery, which is
still very ingrained in the culture"
Juliano Trombeta (BIOSANI)
Roberto Kaefer (Globo Aves)
Source: Press clippings; Roland Berger
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As a production location in Mercosur, Paraguay should be considered
if production is labor intensive and long distance logistics feasible
Key influencing factors
Labor intensity
High labor intensity with comparatively low
requirements regarding education and
experience
Logistic dependency
Modest size and weight of products and
sufficient lead time to enable >1000 km
transportation to clients
Infrastructure dependency
Modest dependency on electric infrastructure
since stability given in metropolitan areas,
though blackouts can occur
Tax relevance
Opportunity to make use of tax incentives, e.g.
high value added, internal supplier relations
Source: Roland Berger
low
high
low
high
low
high
low
high
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Before investing in Paraguay, it's especially important to consider
the externally induced risks carefully, e.g. developments in Brazil
Opportunities & risks for automotive suppliers investing in Paraguay
Opportunities
Risks
> Low labor costs – Labor costs incl. tax & social
mark-up very attractive
> Attractive tax regime – Low overall taxation for
companies
> Investor-friendly government – Stable
environment compared to other LatAm countries
> Low level of unionization – Especially compared
to Brazil and Argentina, there is limited union
influence and activity in Paraguay
> Mercosur content – Value added in Paraguay
counts as Mercosur local content
>…
Source: Roland Berger
> No access to InovarAuto – Production in Paraguay
does not qualify for the Brazilian incentive program
InovarAuto
> Dependency on consumption in Brazil & Argentina –
No own OEMs, all products have to be exported, thus
heavily dependent on Brazil and Argentina
> Limited experience with high-tech products – Lack
of highly qualified workforce, especially with regard to
more complex products
> Hardly any local supply base – Basically all inputs
have to be imported, there is hardly any local production
> Limited quality of infrastructure – Reliability of utility
services is acceptable but needs checking case by case
> Limited attractiveness for expatriates – In
comparison to other LatAm countries, living conditions
are less attractive, so good salary packages have to be
offered accordingly
>…
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Companies considering an investment in Paraguay should not
neglect four key success factors
Recommendations
Consider overall Mercosur market development – Key consumer
markets for automotive products are in Brazil and Argentina, with both
countries facing recession
✓
Be clear on target clients – Frozen zone and supply chain
configuration should be aligned with target clients: most OEMs accept
the additional complexity in exchange for more attractive prices
✓
Conduct a structured location search project – The location
within both Mercosur and Paraguay must be selected carefully
Involve local experts at an early stage – Local specifics that might
influence a decision can change quickly; thus companies should
involve independent partners able to provide objective assessment
Source: Roland Berger
✓
✓
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The metropolitan areas offer an attractive environment for laborintensive production – Maquila program offers attractive tax scheme
Wrap-up
1.
2.
3.
Economic and political stability
4.
Investment decision requires case-by-case consideration
The current government is stable and embodies liberal, investor-friendly policies
Favorable environment
Key advantages are low labor costs and a favorable tax regime, while logistics to key
automotive clusters and infrastructure requirements have to be checked case by case
Many companies already established
Especially companies with a traditionally high share of manual production are already installed in
Paraguay (e.g. clothing, wiring harness, etc.)
Yes, Paraguay is a hidden champion for many types of production, but as always investments
should be carefully considered and independent local experts involved in decision making
Source: Roland Berger
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For further questions please feel free to contact us!
Your contacts
Phone:
Fax:
E-mail:
Source: Roland Berger
Dr. John-Wesley
Löwen
Dr. Thomas
Schlick
Thomas
Totzeck
Managing Director
Asunción, Paraguay
Partner
Frankfurt, Germany
Project Manager
São Paulo, Brazil
German-Paraguayan
Chamber of Industry
and Commerce
Roland Berger
Automotive
Competence Center
Roland Berger
Automotive
Competence Center
+595 21 615-848
+595 21 615-844
wloewen@ahkasu.com.py
Phone:
+49 69 29924 6202
Fax:
+49 69 29924 6102
E-mail: thomas.schlick@rolandberger.com
Phone:
+55 11 3046 7111
Fax:
+55 11 3046 7222
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Paraguay's market potential for the regional automotive supplier industry_FINAL_mit Ansprechpartnern inkl IHK.pptx
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