Brazil: Integrated assessment and
planning in the context of the
sustainable Amazon Plan:
With focus on the BR-163 Highway area of
influence and the soybean sector
Preface
Soybean crop expansion in the Amazônia is a matter of contention in this millennium due to environmental
sensitivity and international visibility of the region. The soybean has become the main Brazilian export
commodity, with the central-western region the greatest producer in the country, which are mainly cerrado
(savannah) areas. This central-western region accounts for around 26.8 per cent of all cultivated areas in
Brazil. The State of Mato Grosso, part of the Legal Amazônia, contributes 14.0 per cent of all cropped areas
and 24.4 per cent of all soybean cultivation areas in Brazil.
Technological breakthroughs and the availability of flat and cheap land provided enormous competitive
advantage to Brazil in the international market, in spite of the high transportation costs. Transportation costs
are the major problem that drives soybean cultivation to the Amazonian forest region, not the territorial
aspect of soybean cultivation. We do recognize the strategic role of the agribusiness for the future of this
country and the legitimate interest of the soybean sector in the pavement of the BR-163 Highway to reach the
port of Santarém-PA, enabling the sector to benefit from a multi-modal road-fluvial transport system. This
will reduce transportation costs and make the Northern export corridor across Amazônia viable.
The Ministry of the Environment’s concern is that this investment in infrastructure, though necessary for the
whole population in the area of influence, should not aggravate environmental problems such as deforestation,
and social and land tenure issues. This is the main reason why the Federal Government decided to create the
Inter-ministerial Working Group (IWG) to formulate a regional sustainable development plan for the BR163 Cuiabá-Santarém Highway area of influence.
Furthermore, the Office for Sustainable Development Policies (SDS), together with the Office for the
Coordination of the Amazônia (SCA) agreed to support this UNEP/DTIE integrated assessment study of the
soybean sector in Brazil.
This study uses an integrated approach of economic, social and environmental dimensions to analyse the
complex regional realities and understand the actual impacts of soybean expansion on the environment
and on the local population. Such analysis brings about real contribution to decision-makers on different
levels, for the implementation of a development plan not only reduces eventual negative effects of economic
investments (production and infrastructure), but also promotes orderly development and sustainable use of
biodiversity. The recommendations of this study require study by all levels of decision making that the IWG
will be implementing for the BR-163 sustainable plan.
Dr. Gilney Amorim Viana
Secretary for Sustainable Development Policies
Acronyms and abbreviations
ABAG
Brazilian Agribusiness Association
ADA
Amazon Development Agency
AIP
Annual Incidence of Parasites
ALAP
Provisional Jurisdictional Area
AM
State of Amazonas
APA
Environmental Protection Area
APL
Local Production Arrangement
ARV
Antiretroviral
BASA
Banco da Amazônia (Bank of the Amazon)
BID
Inter-American Development Bank
BNDES
National Bank for Economic and Social Development
CCIR
Rural Property Record Certificate
CDS
Sustainable Development Center
CGPNCM
General Coordination of the National Malaria Control Program
CI
Inter-ministerial Coordination Commission
CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora
CNPq
National Counsel for Scientific and Technological Development
CONAMA
National Environment Council
CVRD
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce
DTIE
Division for Technology, Industry and Economy
ECLAC
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
EIA
Environmental Impact Study
EMATER-PA
Pará’s Technical Assistance and Rural Extension Enterprise
EMBRAPA
Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
EMPAER-MT Mato Grosso’s Rural Research, Assistance and Extension Enterprise
ESALQ
Luiz de Queiroz High School of Agriculture
ETB
Economics and Trade Branch
FCO
Constitutional Fund for the Financing of the Mid-West Region
FINEP
Funding Organization for Studies and Projects
iii
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
FNO
Constitutional Fund for the Financing of the North Region
FUNDEFE
National Fund for Primary Education Development and for Enhancing the Value of the Teaching Profession
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GESAC
Electronic Government/Citizen Service Programme
GPTI
Permanent Inter-ministerial Work Group
GTI
Inter-ministerial Work Group
HDI
Human Development Index
IAG
International Advisory Group
IAP
Integrated Assessment and Planning
IBAMA
Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Natural Renewable Resources
IBGE
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
IDAM
Institute for Agricultural Development of Amazonas
INCRA
National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform
INPE
National Space Research Institute
IPEA
Applied Economic Research Institute
IWG
Inter-ministerial Working Group
LDB
National Education Guidelines and Framework Act
LMA
Level of Market Activity
MAPA
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply
MCT
Ministry of Science and Technology
MD
Ministry of Defense
MDA
Ministry of Agrarian Development
MDIC
Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
MDM
Millennium Development Goals
MEAs
Multilateral environmental agreements
MI
Ministry of National Integration
MJ
Ministry of Justice
MMA
Ministry of the Environment
MME
Ministry of Mines and Energy
MoU
Memorandum of Understanding
MPOG
Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management
MR
Meso-region
MT
Ministry of Transport
MTE
Ministry of Labour and Employment
NGO
Non-Governmental Organization
PA
State of Pará
iv
Acronyms and abbreviations
PAE
Extractivist Settlement Project
PAF
Forest Settlement Project
PAS
Sustainable Amazon Plan
PDRI
Integrated Regional Development Plan
PEA
Working population
PETI
Child Labor Eradication Program
PHPN
Prenatal and Birth Care Humanization Program
PIC
Prior Informed Consent
PID
Integrated Public Land Disposal Plan
PNRA
National Agrarian Reform Plan
POPs Persistent Organic Pollutants
PPA
Pluriannual Plan
PPC
Public Policy Capacity
PPG-7
Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rain Forest
PROECOTUR National Ecotourism Program
PRONAF
National Family-based Agriculture Program
RAIS
Annual Social Information Report
RDS
Sustainable Development Reserves
RESEX
Extractive Reserve
RIMA
Environmental Impact Report
SA
Sub-area
SAMU
Emergency Medical Care Service
SBC Secretariat of the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal
SCA
Amazon Coordination Secretariat
SDR
Regional Development Secretariat
SDS
Secretariat for Sustainable Development Policies
SISMAL
Malaria Information System
SISNAMA
National Environment System
SIVEP
Epidemiological Surveillance Information System
STD/Aids
Sexually Transmitted Diseases/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
SUAS
Unified Social Assistance System
TI
Indigenous land
UC
Conservation Unit
UHE
Hydroelectric Plant
UnB
University of Brasilia
UNCTAD
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
WTO
World Trade Organization
ZEE
Economic and Ecological Zoning
vi
Acknowledgements
This publication is based on the results from the Integrated Assessment and Planning (IAP) project
implemented in Federative Republic of Brazil from January 2004. UNEP would like to begin by thanking
the project partner, Ministry of the Environment, for its cooperation and commitment.
UNEP is also highly indebted to UNEP/Brazil coordinator Cristina Montenegro and her assistant, Yana
Dumaresq for everything they did for the completion of this project. Of course, other members of the
Steering Group, such as Flavia Lima, Julio Miragaya, Onice Dall ‘Oglio, Sandra Faillace and Cássio Pereira
were all supportive of the study. UNEP also owes acknowledgements to many researchers from different
universities but especially wishes to thank Raimunda Monteiro and Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior,
who voluntarily shared their expertise and experience.
An international group of experts provided important input to the project. UNEP would like to express its
gratitude to members of this group: Jiri Dusik, Jan Joost Kessler, Barry Sadler and Salah el Serafy for their
time, effort, and advice, including comments on the draft version of this report.
UNEP also wishes to gratefully acknowledge the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for its funding
support, which made this project in Brazil and eight other countries possible.
At UNEP, the project was initiated and under the overall supervision of Hussein Abaza. Maria Cecilia
Pineda and Fulai Sheng coordinated this project and provided technical support. Desiree Leon facilitated
the processing of the report for editing and typesetting. Rahila Mughal provided administrative support for
the project.
UNEP’s appreciation also goes to Ho Hui Lin of iPublish Pte Ltd for providing editorial and typesetting
services.
Notwithstanding the valuable contributions of many acknowledged here, the full responsibility for the
content of this report remains with the authors.
vii
United Nations Environment
Programme
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the overall coordinating environmental organization
of the United Nations system. Its mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnerships in caring
for the environment, by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and people to improve their quality of
life without compromising that of future generations. In accordance with its mandate, UNEP works to
observe, monitor, and assess the state of the global environment; improve the scientific understanding of
how environmental change occurs; and in turn, determine how such change can be managed by actionoriented national policies and international agreements. UNEP’s capacity building work thus centres on
helping countries strengthen environmental management in diverse areas, which include freshwater and land
resource management; the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, marine and coastal ecosystem
management; and cleaner industrial production and eco-efficiency, among many others.
UNEP, headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, marked its first 30 years of service in 2002. During this time,
in partnership with a global array of collaborating organizations, UNEP achieved major advances in the
development of international environmental policy and law, environmental monitoring and assessment, and
our understanding of the science of global change. This work also supports the successful development and
implementation of the world’s major environmental conventions. In parallel, UNEP administers several
multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), including the Vienna Convention’s Montreal Protocol on
Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species
of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of
Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal (SBC), the Convention on Prior Informed Consent Procedure for
Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade (Rotterdam Convention, PIC), the
Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Stockholm Convention
on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs).
Division of Technology, Industry and Economics
The mission of the Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE) is to encourage decision makers
in government, local authorities and industry to develop and adopt policies, strategies, and practices that
are cleaner and safer, make efficient use of natural resources, ensure environmentally sound management
of chemicals, and reduce pollution and risks for humans and the environment. In addition, it seeks to
enable implementation of conventions and international agreements and encourage the internalization of
environmental costs. UNEP DTIE’s strategy in carrying out these objectives is to influence decision-making
through partnerships with other international organizations, governmental authorities, business and industry,
and NGOs; facilitate knowledge management through networks; support implementation of conventions;
and work closely with UNEP regional offices. The Division, with its Director and Division Office in Paris,
consists of one centre and five branches located in Paris, Geneva and Osaka.
ix
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Economics and Trade Branch
The Economics and Trade Branch (ETB) is one of the five branches of DTIE. Its mission is to enhance the
capacities of developing countries and transition economies to integrate environmental considerations into
development planning and macroeconomic policies, including trade policies. ETB helps countries develop and
use integrated assessment and incentive tools for achieving poverty reduction and sustainable development.
The Branch further works to improve our understanding of environmental, social, and economic effects of
trade liberalization and the effects of environmental policies on trade, and works to strengthen coherence
between Multilateral Environmental Agreements and the World Trade Organization. ETB also helps enhance
the role of the financial sector in moving towards sustainability. Through its finance initiatives, ETB also
helps enhance the role of the financial sector in moving towards sustainability.
For more information on the general programme of the Economics and Trade Branch, please contact:
Hussein Abaza
Chief, Economics and Trade Branch (ETB)
Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
11-13 Chemin des Anemones
1219 Chatelaine/Geneva
Tel : 41-22-917 81 79
Fax : 41-22-917 80 76
http://www.unep.ch/etb
Table of contents
Preface ..................................................................................................................................... i
Acronyms and abbreviations ...................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... vii
United Nations Environment Programme ........................................................... ix
Table of contents ............................................................................................................... xi
List of figures ....................................................................................................................... xiii
List of tables ......................................................................................................................... xiii
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Overview of the Brazilian Amazon ................................................................................ 2
2. State planning processes ........................................................................................ 5
2.1 The Pluriannual Plan ...................................................................................................... 5
2.2 The Sustainable Amazon Plan ....................................................................................... 6
2.3 Permanent inter-ministerial Workgroup ........................................................................ 6
2.4 The BR-163 Plan ............................................................................................................ 6
2.4.1 BR-163 Plan creation ......................................................................................... 7
2.4.2 Major social challenges ...................................................................................... 7
2.4.3 IAG analysis of the BR-163 Plan ....................................................................... 8
2.4.4 Stakeholders in the BR-163 Plan ....................................................................... 9
2.5 IAP’s contribution .......................................................................................................... 10
3. Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region ................................................ 13
3.1 BR-163 area of influence ............................................................................................... 13
3.2 The soybean business ..................................................................................................... 15
3.2.1 Soybean growing by region ................................................................................ 17
3.2.2 Modern production and BR-163 ........................................................................ 18
3.3 The cattle business ......................................................................................................... 20
3.4 The logging business ...................................................................................................... 22
3.5 Land use and price ......................................................................................................... 23
xi
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
4. Economic, social and environmental indicators and links .................. 27
4.1 Economic indicators ....................................................................................................... 27
4.1.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) .......................................................................... 27
4.1.2 Income profile .................................................................................................... 28
4.1.3 Employment profile ............................................................................................ 29
4.2 Social indicators ............................................................................................................. 30
4.2.1 Human Development Index ............................................................................... 30
4.2.2 Poverty levels ..................................................................................................... 32
4.2.3 Healthcare ........................................................................................................... 34
4.2.4 Education ............................................................................................................ 35
4.3 Environmental impact indicators ................................................................................... 36
4.3.1 Recent state of deforestation .............................................................................. 36
4.4 Economic expansion, environment and poverty links ................................................... 38
4.4.1 Land occupation and deforestation ..................................................................... 38
4.4.2 Frontier, poverty and environment ..................................................................... 38
4.4.3 Winners and losers ............................................................................................. 39
5. Integrated assessment and scenarios ............................................................ 41
5.1 Causal relationships between variables and indicators .................................................. 41
5.2 Public policies and governance ...................................................................................... 43
5.3 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................ 44
5.4 Scenarios 1 ..................................................................................................................... 44
5.5 Scenarios 2 ..................................................................................................................... 45
5.6 Scenarios 3 ..................................................................................................................... 47
5.7 Scenarios 4 ..................................................................................................................... 48
5.8 Further evaluation of scenarios ...................................................................................... 50
5.9 Integrated impacts of environment and social issues ..................................................... 51
6. Policy recommendations ......................................................................................... 53
6.1 Structuring and articulation of policy measures ............................................................ 53
6.2 Policy measures to reduce land grabbing, uncontrolled land occupation, and
deforestation ................................................................................................................... 53
6.3 Policies for development ................................................................................................ 54
6.4 Policy measures for social inclusion and impacts from uncontrolled growth of
medium and small cities ................................................................................................. 55
xii
Table of contents
7. Final comments ............................................................................................................. 57
Appendix I: Losers from existing BR-163 Plan ..................................................................... 59
Appendix II: Supporting maps ................................................................................................ 62
Appendix III: Supporting data ................................................................................................ 65
Appendix IV: Project participants and coordinators ............................................................... 72
References ............................................................................................................................... 73
List of figures
Figure 1: Scope of BR-163 Highway .................................................................................... 14
Figure 2: Soybean production in Brazil 1952-2005 .............................................................. 16
Figure 3: Area covered with soybean crops in Brazil 2003 .................................................... 17
Figure 4: Soybean growing in BR-163 area of influence 1990-2004 .................................... 18
Figure 5: Bovine stocks 1990-2003 ...................................................................................... 20
Figure 6: Density of cattle stocks (numbers/ha) 1990-2003 ................................................... 21
Figure 7: Quantity of wood logs 1990-2003 .......................................................................... 22
Figure 8: Land use by region 1996 ........................................................................................ 23
Figure 9: Numbers and sizes of estates ................................................................................... 24
Figure 10: Average land prices by Meso-Region, R$/ha ....................................................... 25
Figure 11: GDP growth by Meso-regions 1996-2002 ........................................................... 28
Figure 12: Income distribution by sector 2003 ....................................................................... 29
Figure 13: Employment by sector 2003 .................................................................................. 30
Figure 14: Overall HDI, 1991 and 2000 ................................................................................ 31
Figure 15: Longevity HDI, 1991 and 2000 ............................................................................ 31
Figure 16: Education HDI, 1991 and 2000 ............................................................................ 32
Figure 17: Poverty levels ...................................................................................................... 33
Figure 18: Indigence levels ..................................................................................................... 33
Figure 19: Annual incidence of parasites in Brazil ............................................................... 35
Figure 20: Deforestation trends 2000-2004 ........................................................................... 37
Figure 21: A dynamic, concurrent and self-reinforcing process ............................................. 42
Figure 22: BR-163 strategies for sustainable development ................................................... 43
List of tables
Table 1: Scenario construction summary for IAP ................................................................... 11
Table 2: BR-163 area of influence by Meso-regions and Sub-areas ...................................... 15
Table 3: Gross domestic product of municipalities ................................................................ 27
Table 4: Malaria cases in Meso-Regions 1999-2004 .............................................................. 34
Table 5: Deforested area 2000-2004 ....................................................................................... 36
Table 6: Public policies and impacts ...................................................................................... 43
xiii
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Table 7: Scenario construction summary for IAP (repeat) ..................................................... 44
Table 8: Scenario 1 indicators ................................................................................................. 45
Table 9: Scenario 2 indicators ................................................................................................. 46
Table 10: Scenario 3 indicators ............................................................................................... 47
Table 11: Scenario 4 indicators ............................................................................................... 49
Table 12: Synthesis matrix of scenarios ................................................................................. 51
Table A1: Soybean cultivated area (in hectare) ...................................................................... 65
Table A2: Effective bovine herd (head) .................................................................................. 67
Table A3: Bovine Herd Density (head/km2) ........................................................................... 68
Table A4: Quantity of log produced (m3) ............................................................................... 69
Table A5: Land prices (R$/ha) by types of land ..................................................................... 70
Table A6: Land price growth, by types of land ...................................................................... 71
xiv
1. Introduction
In 2003, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) launched “Capacity Building for Integrated
Assessment and Planning for Sustainable Development”. The purpose of this initiative was to enhance the
capacity of developing countries and countries in transition towards a market economy, and to implement
integrated assessment and planning for sustainable development with a focus on aspects such as agriculture,
poverty alleviation, environmental management and promotion of sustainable trade.
The primary methodology instrument was Integrated Assessment and Planning (IAP). The IAP tool proposes
ex ante/ex post intermediate evaluations of a planning process with a view to improve planning and later
monitoring. The ultimate objective was to facilitate inter-connections of social, environmental, and economic
levels in the planning process and in reviews of major domestic industries, thus facilitating poverty alleviation
and sustainable trade.
The IAP approach was developed by UNEP in accordance with the Millennium Development Goals. Brazil,
Colombia, Chile, Czech Republic, Indonesia, Kenya, Lebanon, Russia, Tanzania, and Uganda were some of
the countries to have developed studies under this initiative.
The central assessment theme for Brazil was the BR-163 sustainable development plan, in response to
a demand raised by the Inter-ministerial Working Group (IWG) for the Plan to integrate governmental
activities into economic development of the highway-influenced areas, between the cities of Cuiabá (state of
Mato Grosso) and Santarém (state of Pará).
Since this is a project that integrates transversally environmental, social and economic issues, the BR-163
Plan also considered the interests of the agribusiness sector and the governors of the States of Mato Grosso
and Pará. The key issue was to make infrastructure investments that were not at the expense of social
discontent (violence and poverty) and environmental damages (deforestation). Any conflicts of interest
should be mitigated by government programmes.
As the regional economies depend heavily on soybean crops, the project also assessed the mutually influencing
effects of the soybean industry and the BR-163 Plan.
In October 2004, a national integrated assessment study began. This was based on information, data
and surveys already available, covering both substantive aspects (economic dynamics, and social and
environmental impacts) and process aspects of the BR-163 Plan. On the one hand, this study examined the
interests and expectations of stakeholders using “mapping of actors”. On the other hand, for substantive
analysis, the study drew on scenario-building techniques to assess key economic, social and environmental
indicators.
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
A political economy approach for the study of scenarios was used, considering primordially the vectors of
economic dynamism and state capacity to develop and implement integrated public policies.
The study’s Final Assessment Workshop (held at Brasília on 20 April 2006) brought together segments
of society who had raised key issues when the project started, and this clearly reflects political legitimacy
and methodological usefulness of integrated assessment as a strategic decision-making process. Indeed,
project outcomes contributed to the Brazilian government’s actions since it was possible now to perform an
assessment of the environmental, social and economic dynamics. The recommended policies are being taken
into consideration in BR-163 Plan’s feasibility process.
1.1 Overview of the Brazilian Amazon
The Amazon Biome can be found in nine South American countries, covering a total area of 6.4 million km².
Brazil is home to 63 per cent of this, which is equivalent to a bit more than 4 million km². To better inform
public policies related to the Amazon Biome, a macro region called “Amazônia Legal” (Legal Amazon) was
demarcated in Brazil. This region covers approximately 5 million km² (which corresponds to 59 per cent of
the Brazilian territory), and it includes: the states of Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, and
Tocantins in the north; the state of Mato Grosso; a part of Maranhão; and a small portion of Goiás.
In 2000, the population in the Legal Amazon reached 21 million inhabitants (12 per cent of the entire
Brazilian population), and demographic density in the region was slightly above 3 inhabitants per km².
Demographic growth was significant over the past few years since the number of inhabitants in the region
jumped from 8.2 million in 1970 to 17 million in 1991.
In 2002, the Legal Amazon’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at R$82 billion (US$27.5 billion) and, at
that time, that accounted for 6.1 per cent of the national GDP. In 2002, the GDP per inhabitant in the Legal
Amazon was equal to R$7,400 (US$2,100), and the average GDP per inhabitant for the whole nation was
R$12,900 (US$3,650). In 2000, the working population in the Legal Amazon was 8.5 million or 42 per cent
of the total population in the Amazon.
Forests (dense, open and seasonal forests) cover 64 per cent of the Legal Amazon. Non forest vegetation,
comprised of cerrados, natural fields and campinaranas, cover another 22 per cent of the region. The Legal
Amazon originally held 73 per cent of forest cover. By 1994, deforestation had affected 9 per cent of the
region. By 2004, approximately 14 per cent of the region had been destroyed. This year, deforestation rate
in the Legal Amazon was the second highest ever, affecting 27,200 km². The highest deforestation rate ever
was reported in 1995 (29,100 km²).
About 24 per cent of the Amazon is comprised of private areas. Another 33 per cent are legally protected
areas - Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands. Approximately 10 per cent can be considered special
purpose areas, such military lands, environmental protection areas (EPAs), and rural settlements. Another 33
per cent of the Legal Amazon remain as vacant lands or private lands under dispute. The majority of legally
protected areas in the Amazon (63 per cent) are Indigenous Lands, whereas Sustainable Use Conservation
Units account for 6.3 per cent, and Integral Protection Units total 5.5 per cent. Special areas (10 per cent of
the Amazon) include rural settlements (5.3 per cent) and EPAs (3.7 per cent).
The new geography in the Amazon is not just a consequence of globalization. It is a result of an intense
process that has been producing profound structural changes since the late 20th century (Becker, 2004). This
transformation has two fundamental features. On the one hand, at global level, the Amazon has now become
a new frontier of natural capital whose territorial appropriation is supported by scientific and technological
Introduction
use of nature and, on the other hand, at domestic level, it is no longer the major frontier of economic and
population expansion, thus exhausting the old standard of the Amazon as a mobile forest, but rather has
become an area with significant potential for development as well.
Recent regional history has brought significant changes to the pattern of settlement based on river
transportation. The pattern of territorial integration (both terrestrial and fluvial) kept a peculiar linearity
by following the river, along which investments (both public and private) and demographic flows have
come to be concentrated, thus creating a specific regional macro zone system. Man-induced pressures of
deforestation and burns, and the serious conflicts over land do not exist 100 kilometers from these belts of
river or roads.
Intensification of roads is especially pronounced east of the states of Pará, Maranhão, Tocantins, Mato
Grosso, and Rondônia, making up a great arc of settlement along the forest rim and a 3,000-5,000 km wide
belt. This great arc of settlement was the main expansion area of territorial settlement in the Amazon. For
decades, economic expansion depended on timber exploitation-deforestation-burns-cattle raising to open
new spaces, which explains the name Arc of Fire.
The mobile frontier of the Amazon may have given way to individual fronts of expansion (Becker,
2004), which are mainly located in the following areas: (a) Cuiabá-Santarém road and in Mato Grosso’s
municipalities of Alta Floresta, Guarantã do Norte, Castanheiro, and Aripuanã; (b) Porto Velho-Manaus
road; (c) Santarém-Itaituba-Altamira-Almerim área; (d) state of Pará’s municipality of São Félix do Xingu;
and (e) state of Rondônia’s municipality of Buritis. The overall state of deforestation, after 2000, tends
to be concentrated on already deforested border areas, and recent data seems to indicate new trends and
processes that make the current picture more complex. Intensification of expansion fronts is driven primarily
by soybean competitiveness and the expected installation of new transport axes. These recent expansion
fronts are of a different type than the original fronts in the 1960s and 1970s, since they no longer revolve
around a policy of incentives by the Government, but depend on the resources of economic actors primarily
based in Cuiabá and Belém (Becker, 2004).
2. State planning processes
In the Amazon, several planning processes are underway, and some plans end up overlapping due to the
way such processes are started off. The most overarching, however, is the Pluriannual Plan (PPA), under
which all government investment programmes for development purposes are grouped. It is financed with
funds from the Treasury, including investments made by states and municipalities. In addition to the PPA,
decisions to start a regional or thematic planning process are made in order to channel public or private
investments into strategic areas. In the case of the Amazon region, some of these processes overlap spatially,
though they have different overall objectives, including:
1. Sustainable Amazon Programme
2. Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon
3. Sustainable Regional Development Plan for the area under the influence of the BR-163 Cuiabá-Santarém
Road – BR-163 Plan.
Brazil is a federal country and its policies are decentralized. States and municipalities have relative autonomy
to pursue their public policies, including those related to land use and natural resource planning. This is why
the implementation of integrated policies, such as recommended assessment processes, can be challenging.
2.1
The Pluriannual Plan
The Pluriannual Plan (PPA) is a constitutional provision that delegates to the Federal Government the
medium-term planning of fundamental issues, such as encouragement to production, job creation, reduction
of regional inequalities, better infrastructure, technological and scientific development, human development
and social inclusion as income distribution is perfected. The Government must submit the PPA to the
parliament by the end of August in the first year of administration.
Through this broad strategy and in line with a medium term planning process, PPA is a reference for other
processes. This is the case of the Sustainable Amazon Programme, where the inputs for planning are derived
from the guidelines and investments contained in the PPA.
The 2004-2007 Plan is committed to macroeconomic stability preservation. It estimates economic growth
rate at above 4 per cent per year and recognizes that investment levels in infrastructure over the past few
years have had an adverse effect on Brazil’s competitiveness, in particular from high transportation costs.
The conclusion is that substantial investments are necessary to expand and recover the transport network in
order to support long term economic growth.
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
2.2 The Sustainable Amazon Plan
The Sustainable Amazon Plan (PAS) is a host of guidelines developed by the Federal Government in
collaboration with the states in the region. The PAS is a reference document for the Amazon. It is also
innovative, since it is the first initiative to outline actions of several Ministries in a shared development
strategy for Amazon, and since it seeks interaction between federal and state levels of government.
It proposes to integrate public policy instruments with a view to implementing a new development model
based on five thematic areas:
•
•
•
•
•
Environmental management and land use planning
Innovation and competitiveness-based sustainable production
Social inclusion and citizenship
Development-oriented infrastructure
New financing standard.
The PAS is not in itself an action plan. Rather, it is a framework of theories, directives and a set of strategies
and action lines for policies and planning processes, with consideration for societal participation in the
discussion and elaboration of projects. It encompasses the Legal Amazon, and its directives are a reference
for the BR-163 Plan.
2.3 Permanent Inter-ministerial Workgroup
As the deforestation growth rate went up by 40 per cent during the 2001-2002 period (INPE, 2004), the
Federal Government decided to create a committee to look into reducing deforestation rates in the Amazon
while ensuring sustainability and quality of life for the population. In view of this challenge, a Presidential
Decree of 7 March 2003 established a Permanent Inter-ministerial Workgroup (GPTI) that would propose
measures and coordinate actions for the reduction of deforestation rates through the following instruments:
• Land use planning and legalization of land tenure in the municipalities in the Arc of Deforestation
• Fiscal and credit incentives to expand economic efficiency and sustainability of areas already
deforested
• Procedures for environmentally sustainable infrastructure works
• Job and income generation in activities with rehabilitation of degraded areas
• Addition of open and abandoned areas to the production chain, and management of forest areas
• Integrated performance of federal agencies responsible for monitoring and control of illegal activities in
the Arc of Deforestation
• Others that may be considered relevant.
The GPTI is coordinated by the Office of the Chief of Staff, and is comprised of 11 Ministries, including those
in charge of Agriculture, Defense, Science and Technology, Agrarian Development, National Integration,
the Environment, Mines and Energy, Justice, Transportation, and Labour. However, besides institutional
constraints, budget restrictions and limited reach of official economic services and instruments lessen the
effect of policies, even when they are well formulated.
2.4 The BR-163 Plan
To manage the area of influence of BR-163 highway, the Brazilian Government has begun to harmonize
interests into integrated actions that can mitigate socio-environmental impacts due to road paving. Without
a consistent plan, paving “could exacerbate undesirable social and environmental impacts in its influence
area” (PAS, 2006).
State planning processes
The BR-163 Plan is “the first experience of formulation of an operational plan for an area in Legal Amazon
based on PAS general directives” (PAS, 2006). The area of influence crosses 73 municipalities (28 in Pará
state, 39 in Mato Grosso state and 6 in Amazonas state) and will be 1,232,000 km² in total area, or 14.7
per cent of total territory. Hence the highway, in its Cuiabá-Santarém segment, crosses “one of the most
important regions in Amazon, from the point of view of economic potential, biological diversity, natural
wealth and cultural and ethnic diversity” (BRASIL, 2005).
The new highway will benefit Mato Grosso, the largest soybean grower and exporter in the country, but will
also be strategic as it will reduce transport costs for transport to the ports of Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP).
Electronic products from Zona Franca de Manaus, meat, timber, and agro-forestall products, in addition to
soybeans, will be the main cargo.
The area of influence covers a large mosaic, including pristine areas and deforested areas. The mere
expectation of concluding the paving of this BR-163 road segment has been contributing to accelerated
processes of disordered land occupation and predatory exploitation of natural resources (BRASIL, 2005).
2.4.1 BR-163 Plan creation
The BR-163 Plan is under the responsibility of an Inter-ministerial Working Group (IWG), decreed by
a President’s Act on 15 May 2004. It is coordinated by the Presidency’s “Casa Civil” and comprises of
21 organizations from the Ministries and Presidency’s “Casa Civil” and Secretariats. It has created four
thematic working groups (WGs), made up of experts from Ministries and public organisations.
In the Plan building process, 15 city consultations were carried out in the region, (seven cities in the first
round and eight cities in the second round), aiming to collect suggestions from the different social groups
likely to be interested, such as state governments, municipalities, entrepreneurs and workers representative
entities, civil society forums, etc. The Plan’s strategy towards sustainable regional development is to tackle
poorly synergetic relationships among the stock of natural resources, to raise job and income creation, and
to improve governance in the Amazon, the so-called “frontier economy”. The objective is to bring about a
more balanced scenario, such as sustainable exploration of natural resources so as to generate income and
employment and to foster increasing levels of governance.
The assumption here is that large scale works, such as the paving of a highway of this size, triggers economic
growth in the region, but also causes conflicts that should be arbitrated by the State by facilitating new
production systems, in addition to upholding the rights of indigenous populations and other traditional
populations. Land use planning has prompted planners to demarcate new conservation units, adopt a
timber certification system, and to create a thriving production sector based on bio-prospecting and the bioindustry.
2.4.2 Action strategies
There are four strategic axes for investment policies and strengthening governmental institutions. They are:
1. Land use planning and environmental management, which include consolidation of occupied areas on a
sustainable basis; sustainable use and protection of forests; land tenure legalization; land development at
local and micro-regional level; economic and ecological zoning; environmental monitoring and control;
and improving urban centres.
2. Encouragement to productive activities. The planners assumed that it was possible to strike a balance
between development-oriented actions and forest conservation actions. Encouragement policies are
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
focused on the use of credit instruments, technical assistance, and scientific and technological research.
Policies include: local productive chains and productive arrangements (APL); strengthening of familybased production; sustainable use of forests; solidarity economy; ecological tourism; development
promotion instruments.
3. Development-oriented infrastructure, with various investments to improve the transportation system,
integrate a multi-modal system, evaluate the network of informal roads and integrate transportation
on waterways; invest in the energy system, with incentives to biomass energy production; improve
communications systems; and improve storage systems.
4. Social inclusion and citizenship. The social inclusion strategy intends to disseminate universal policies
regarding education, health and public security; accelerate the fight against poverty; community
development, etc. Another objective is to prevent poor rural populations from being chased away from
their territories.
2.4.3 IAG analysis of the BR-163 Plan
Even as the BR-163 Plan was being drawn up, analysis and criticisms on the proposition were published
from 2004. One of these was made by the International Advisory Group (IAG), a group of experts that
annually evaluates the results of the pilot programme PPG7 to conserve the Brazilian rainforest.
The highlights of the IAG assessment on BR-164 Plan are as follows:
• Disparity exists between the slow pace of governmental initiatives and the acceleration of the land
occupation process. The lack of trust in the capacity of the State to act may result in civil disobedience.
• Lack of consensus to make the PAS viable and problems in implementing initiatives to prevent and
control deforestation in the Legal Amazon are continuing.
• Lack of clear indications on how to connect the licensing procedure of the BR-163 Highway and the BR163 Sustainable Plan.
• Important inputs and capital from PPG7 should offer an opportunity to experiment with newer and more
advanced ideas than the BR-163 Plan.
• Given the worsening land relations in the area of influence, proposed initiatives to address this issue
would be insufficient. IAG suggested measures to give priority to tax collection and public land
registration, which would involve the Federal Public Property Secretariat. In addition, they suggested:
(a) the legalization of land possessions of up to 100 hectares; and (b) legalization of land possessions of
over 100 ha that do not superimpose in the range of up to 30km.
• Amazon electric power portfolio is still being assembled from lobbying by interest groups, instead of
being selected from the Pluriannual Plan.
• The need exists to recognize the value of environmental services in the Amazon, with the accelerated
generation of knowledge chains that become productive chains, such as bio-industry. The IAG supported
a scientific and technological revolution for the Amazon, including the area under the scope of the BR163 highway.
State planning processes
2.4.4 Stakeholders in the BR-163 Plan
Two rounds of public consultations were held to identify the demands and expectations of local participants
of the Plan. The first round of consultations was held in July 2004 in Santarém, (2 and 3 July), Altamira (5
and 6 July), Novo Progresso (8 and 9 July), Guarantã do Norte (12 and 13 July), Sorriso (15 and 16 July),
and Apuí (19 and 20 July). On 27 July, a public consultation was held in Brasilia on the request of NGOs
and civil society. The second round of public consultations was held in April and May 2005. In this round
the most remarkable absence was the indigenous populations, who did not attend since it was difficult for
them to reach the meeting venues and because the planners had promised an exclusive round of meetings for
them, but which was not held.
The history of land occupation in the area shows that indigenous populations are major losers from land
appropriation processes. Up until the 1940s, the territories in the west of Pará and mid-north of Mato Grosso
had significant indigenous presence. In Pará, the main indigenous peoples living in the region were the
Panará, Kayapó, Kube-Kra-Noti, Yuruayá, Kuruáya, Sipayá, Munduruku, Guahuara, Arara, Yuruna, Sipáy,
and Maué. And in Mato Grosso the main indigenous peoples living in the region were the Bororo, Bakairi,
Kayabi, Suiá, Manitsauá, and Panará (Kren-Akarore).
Grabbing of indigenous lands was explicitly a component of the land occupation process in the north of
Mato Grosso, which received support from agricultural projects encouraged and funded by the Federal
Government. Indigenous lands were violently grabbed by speculators based on forged documents attesting
that they were not Indians or even squatters (Oliveira, 2005). As a result, gigantic rural properties in the
region were established.
For the second round of consultations, one hundred representatives were interviewed. These people lived
in 22 towns in the BR-163 area of influence, and were associated with 75 institutions, organizations and/or
social movements in the region. The survey has clearly mapped the response of these representatives on the
highway paving:
• 85 per cent of the interviewed believed that BR-163 would be paved in a period between five and ten
years.
• 25 per cent believed that items provided for in the Plan would be implemented together with the highway
laying.
• Slightly over half expected that only 50 per cent of the initiatives of the Plan will be implemented within
five to ten years. The rest thought that over 50 per cent of the initiatives would be implemented.
• 10 per cent of the interviewees thought the paving should only take place with the full implementation of
the initiatives provided for in the Plan. The majority of these belong to civil society.
The survey has clearly evidenced some disbelief of the interviewees. Although there is a majority of opinion
that favoured the participation process currently promoted, a mix of trust and disbelief prevailed over future
governmental policy.
On the results of the implementation of the BR-163 Plan, expectations in general were highly positive. Those
who lived in the towns and cities located along the highway in particular gave more importance to economic
expansion that the environmental features included in the Plan. The general conclusions are:
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
• No one was against the paving. Some favoured it without conditions. Some favoured it with
reservations.
• Most of the reservations were presented by the civil society group.
• Expectations linked highway paving with expected benefits from best distribution of production (30 per
cent of interviewed), facilitated access to public services (17 per cent) and increased job opportunities
(13 per cent).
• Local governments and the private sector had least expectations of problems and proposed the least
solutions.
• Migration, the increase of violence and crime, environmental devastation, and the difficulties of access
to land were the issues most frequently seen as important ones.
• Problem perception varied according to representatives evaluated. Environmental issues are most
frequently mentioned by civil society and those connected with the Federal and State Governments.
• NGOs most frequently raised contentions raised against state and local governments, loggers, urban
entrepreneurs and urban workers. The most explicit disputes were related to foreign NGOs. The frequency
with which the disputes with the Federal Government were mentioned by large-sized farmers and also by
urban and rural workers was also significant.
• The Federal Government was often mentioned as the actor from whom the most effective participation in
the region was expected. However, INCRA and IBAMA were often described as inoperative, ineffective,
bureaucratic and corrupt.
• Approximately half of the actors surveyed stated that the process would improve if decision-makers
listened to the people and institutions that most contributed to it and if it bridged the uncertainties in
the hearings carried out so far. The most frequently mentioned gaps were the concerns of the native
communities, the rural workers and the small-business owners.
2.5 IAP’s contribution
The main contribution of the IAP project lies in offering the planners a set of political recommendations,
prepared through integrated assessment of the Plan and specific methods used to evaluate planning procedures.
The methods consist of studying its substantial and procedural aspects, and using environmental, social
and economic indicators appropriate to key issues in the understanding of the regional processes. Potential
scenarios are then built.
Construction of the three scenarios initially proposed by UNEP’s experts – (a) without the Plan, (b)
with emergency investments, and (c) with structural investments – was slightly changed to include the
economic dynamism criterion. Social and environmental indicators have proved sensitive to it. The fall in
the deforestation rate for example was partly linked to the demand crisis in the soybean sector. Therefore,
economic dynamism, which is called level of market activity (LMA) here, is considered a determining factor
in the construction of scenarios.
The possible scenarios are discussed at length in Chapter 4 but a summarized model is shown in Table 1.
10
State planning processes
Table 1: Scenario construction summary for IAP
Level of Market Activity (LMA)
Weak
Strong
Scenario 1 – Economic stagnation / Scenario 3 – Economic growth /
Public Policy Non-strengthened
Capacity
Social and environmental inequality Social and environmental
and degradationinequality and degradation
Strengthened
Scenario 2 – Endogenous Scenario 4 – Sustainable
development / Social and development / Social and
environmental governance
environmental distributional
governance
11
3. Economic uses of land in the
BR-163 region
The Amazon is continually going through a process of deforestation and reduction of its forest cover. Year
after year, this is shown by the deforestation data released by the National Space Research Institute (INPE).
As a result of expansion of cattle raising activities, urbanization, and infrastructure projects, settlement in
forested areas has spiralled out of control and suffers predatory effects. Going north from Mato Grosso and
going west from the eastern area of Pará, one can see a space of interweaving, disorganized settlements and
increasing deforestation. This is moving steadily towards otherwise pristine areas as of now.
3.1 BR-163 area of influence
The area of influence of BR-163 highway attracts special importance and attention in environmental, social,
economic, and political terms. Connecting the city of Cuiabá, in the center of Mato Grosso state, to the city
of Santarém, in Pará on the bank of the Amazon River, the BR-163 Highway is located on the deforestation
frontier. It will become the distribution channel for soybean production, linking the cultivation-heavy north
of Mato Grosso to the Port of Santarém, from where ships go straight to international consumer markets in
the northern hemisphere.
With its sheer potential in social and environmental impacts, and positive economic effects for the
development and distribution of soybean production, the paving project of BR-163 is, therefore, a matter of
great conflict and debate.
The most significant result to date has been appreciation of land prices and widespread speculative behaviours
throughout the territory. Savings of US$40 per ton of soybean in transportation costs, for up to 11 million
tons annually, explains why BR-163 is so lucrative for businesses. From 1998 to 2004, land prices in the area
of Pará jumped from an average R$7,000 per hectare to R$3,000. The “land” business for grain producers in
the Brazilian Mid-West has become very profitable, since land in the state of Mato Grosso has sold a hectare
for R$10,000. Land appropriation was generally followed by quick conversion into cropping, especially
with the high prices of agricultural commodities.
Large numbers of cattle raisers also indulged in speculative behavior, and as a result cattle raising activities
have spread out from the north of the state of Mato Grosso to the state of Pará since the early 1990s. The
timber industry has also intensified its structural migrating movement by transferring timber mills from
Mato Grosso to Pará, and the speculative wave to build stocks of raw materials for the highway has also had
an impact.
The three industries together – timber, cattle raising and agribusiness – are responsible for the increased
deforestation rates and uncontrolled occupation of forests.
13
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
For the purpose of the integrated assessment under this study, the scope of analysis has been confined to the
three main Meso-regions (MR) and their sub-areas (SA): (a) The north Meso-region covering the northwest
of the state of Pará and east of the state of Amazonas; (b) the central Meso-region covering the central
area and southwest of Pará, southeast of Amazonas and a part of the far north of the state of Mato Grosso;
and (b) the south Meso-region covering the central and northern portion of Mato Grosso (see Figure 1 and
Table 1).
Figure 1: Scope of BR-163 Highway
14
Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region
Table 2: BR-163 area of influence by Meso-regions and Sub-areas
Meso-region
Sub-area
Total area (km²)
% of area of
% by Meso-
influence region
Central Meso-region
Médio Xingu84.2496.817.5
Central Transamazônica Road137.85311.228.6
Vale do Jamanxim259.98021.153.
Total
482,082
39.1
100.0
North Meso-region
Lower Tapajós36,1152.97.2
Right bank of the Amazon river89,9747.318.0
Left bank of the Amazon river294,62523.958.9
L and R banks of the Amazon river384,59931.276.9
Eastern Transamazônica Road79,3046.415.9
Total
500,018
40.6
100.0
South Meso-region
Mid-North of Mato Grosso166,15313.566.2
Far North of Mato Grosso84,6546.933.8
Total
250,807
20.3
100.0
Grand Total
1,232,907
100.0
-
3.2 The soybean business
As a result of its colonial history, Brazil’s agricultural production has been oriented towards European
markets throughout its history. Therefore, the structure of the Brazilian agrarian universe has always
reflected, and still reflects, the primary objective of producing large volumes for the export market (Küster
& Marti, 2004). As the country’s vast territory gives it a major agrarian edge, agribusiness has established
itself as the flagship industry of Brazil’s export market. Agribusiness accounts for 33 per cent of GDP and
employs 37 per cent of the country’s working population (17.7 million rural workers). In 2003, exports of
agricultural products generated sales of US$36 billion, with a trade balance surplus of US$25.8 billion. The
country’s performance as an agro-exporting power has prompted the United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development (UNCTAD) to anticipate that Brazil will be the world’s largest food producer in the next
decade.
Two sectors in the Brazilian agribusiness industry stand out for the increasing investments they have been
receiving: soybean production and cattle raising. Together, the growth of soybean and animal products in
exports was 135.8 per cent from 2003 to 2004. Soybean was the crop with the most significant growth
rate over the past twenty years, and this expansion can be explained by the fact that soybeans go towards
both animal and plant product chains in various industries (such as poultry and cattle rearing, aquaculture,
agriculture, production of oils and human foods). Furthermore, the global trend towards urban growth has
implications for the population’s eating habits, who consume industrialized products at an increasing rate,
including soybeans as a major item. The Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG) estimates that the
production of grains in Brazil will increase 50 per cent by 2010.
Six factors contribute to the expanding trend of the soybean sector in Brazil, especially in the state of Mato
Grosso (Alencar et. al., 2004): (a) the outbreak of the “mad cow” disease in Europe, resulting in a ban on the
use of animal remains as a source of protein; (b) China’s economic development has boosted consumption
of pork and chicken, which in turn has raised the demand for soybeans for fodder production; (c) reduced
transportation costs of soybeans produced in the north of Mato Grosso by transport on the Madeira River; (d)
soybean productivity gains in the cerrado vegetation and development of soybean varieties that are adapted
to the climate in the Amazon; (e) construction of major corporate storage facilities by Cargill, Maggi, Bunge
and ADM); and (f) low soybean production in the USA in 2003, which augmented international demand for
this commodity. The combination of these factors fostered an increase in soybean crops in Brazil to the point
that the country will supplant the USA and become the largest grain producer in the world.
15
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Indeed, during the 1991-2003 period, Brazil increased its share of the world soybean market by 26.6 million
tons (from 14.9 to 51.5 million tons). During this period, Brazil accounted for 42.6 per cent of the global
soybean production growth. The USA accounted for 13.6 per cent during the same period, and the figure for
Argentina was 27.9 per cent. These data indicate that South America is the prime region for the expansion
of soybean production, and in particular Brazil. Brazil, the USA and Argentina met 90 per cent of the total
demand in 2003 (31 per cent supplied by Brazil, 29 per cent by the USA, and 28 per cent by Argentina).
Figure 2 shows the growth in soybean production in Brazil.
Figure 2: Soybean production in Brazil 1952-2005
65000
62500
60000
57500
55000
52500
50000
47500
45000
42500
40000
37500
35000
32500
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
4000
2500
0
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 64 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5
Source: Oliveira 2005, p. 155
If the upward trend of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina holds up, the two countries will account for
the most significant expansion in soybean areas and production volume over the next fifteen years, according
to a survey by the WWF called Managing the Soy Boom: Two Scenarios of Soil Production Expansion in
South America (Droos, 2004). According to the forecast, the area occupied by soybean production in Brazil
will jump from 21 million ha in 2004 to 31 million ha by 2020, or a 50 per cent growth of planted areas.
The supply to major global soybean consumers (USA, Europe and countries with an expanding economy,
such as India and China) relies on this growth trend in Brazil. Therefore, paving the BR-163 Road is a key
infrastructure initiative that will benefit not only local populations and soybean growers, but also industrial
and trade food production chains around the world. The main barrier to soybean expansion in Mato Grosso
(see below) is the high distribution cost, and logically the solution is the paving of the highway. Once this
has been achieved, Brazil can easily become the world’s largest soybean producer, which will strengthen the
country’s economic and political position at international level. Hence, international pressures can and does
add to domestic political pressures.
16
Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region
3.2.1 Soybean growing by region
Historically, the expansion in areas covered by soybean crops in Brazil started in the south, the primary
soybean producing regions until the late 1990s. In the 1970s, soybean started a progressive march towards the
“cerrado” in Brazilian mid-west. Since then, due to intense technological development to control cerrado’s
soil conditions and to breed new adapted varieties, soybean has found extremely favourable climatic and
topographic conditions for its development. This and high international demand in the 1990s brought a deep
land conversion process along cerrado and in the direction of Amazon forest.
During the first decade of the 21st century, the soybean frontier shifted to the Mid-West, Southeast and
Northeast regions, with high growth rates. In the North region, soybean crops are on the rise in the state of
Tocantins, but at a considerably lower rate. In the Mid-West region, the state of Mato Grosso stands out as
the top national producer over the past five years. From 1999 to 2004, the area devoted to soybean crops
in the state posted an 84 per cent increase. Figure 3 shows the main production areas in Brazil. Soybean
productivity rates in Brazil (2.8-3 tons/ha) have in fact been higher than in the USA (2.6 tons/ha; Oliveira,
2005).
Figure 3: Area covered with soybean crops in Brazil 2003
Area of Soybean Production in 2003
(X 1000 ha)
4.400
2.200
600
50
0
200
400
800km
Source: CONAB (modified by Dros, 2004)
17
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
South Meso-Region
The massive presence of soybean growing in the north of Mato Grosso is clearly in the BR-163 area of
influence. It can be seen (see Figure 4) that the BR-163 will be especially important to the South MesoRegion for soybean growing, since production is mainly concentrated in the north of Mato Grosso.
Figure 4: Soybean growing in BR-163 area of influence 1990-2004
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1990
1991
1992
Total
1993
1994
1995
1996
Central MR
1997
1998
North MR
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
South MR
Soybean expansion analysis in the 1990s showed that there was a 150 per cent increase during a ten-year period
in the state of Mato Grosso, and a 40 per cent increase at national level (Oliveira, 2005), the. Productivity
growth for the same period, however, was 225 per cent for Mato Grosso and 110 per cent for the country as
a whole. By the end of the 1990s, when the national soybean productivity average stood at 2,370 kg/ha, the
average in Mato Grosso was 3,020 kg/ha. The large area covered by soybean crops in Mato Grosso, plus the
high productivity rates achieved, made it possible for Mato Grosso to become the leading soybean producer
in the country, with 20.7 per cent of its area devoted to soybeans. Among municipalities in the state, Sorriso
stood out with 11.6 per cent of the state’s production and 2.3 per cent of national production.
North Meso-Region
It is important to point out that soybeans, which now emerge as the fourth most important crop in the North
Meso-region, was virtually non-existent in that area in the late 1990s. Soybean crops during the 2001-2002
season covered only 350 hectares (200 ha in Santarém and 150 ha in Belterra). Although a significant portion
of the North Meso-region has not yet been occupied by soybean crops, its port facilities show important
changes in transportation infrastructure, which are indications of potential social and economic changes, and
emergence of private investments in infrastructure prompted by competition for logistical advantages among
major players in commodities.
3.2.2 Modern production and BR-163
Soybean production is clearly undertaken by major conglomerates, and capital tends to be concentrated, both
at international level and in the case of Brazil.
18
Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region
From the 1990s, there was a dramatic change in the Brazilian soybean industry as a result of a centralization
process. The major Brazilian companies sold off their business units as a means of facing financing challenges
or as a long term strategy. As a result, the soybean agribusiness was concentrated in four major corporations
well-established in Brazil: Cargill, Archer-Daniels Midland, Bunge & Born, and Louis Dreyfus/Coinbra.
These corporations operate in the food market in general and their portfolio ranges from commodities to
special products. They have a combined share of 44 per cent of the soybean crushing capacity in Brazil. The
national companies are ranked second in terms of industrial capacity, including Caramuru, a Maggi, and the
cooperative Comigo, which has a smaller scale of production. The centralizing trend seems to be here to
stay, and it is reinforced by aggressive strategies for corporate take-over by the four large conglomerates.
Centralization generates considerable gains of scale, which boosts the competitiveness of these companies.
The four conglomerates had initially made investments in the central and south regions of the country, but in
the 1990s they started to invest in the acquisition of companies in the Mid-West region, preferably those with
well-established markets and located in areas with installed logistical and transportation infrastructures.
These projects make it possible for soybean to be planted in over 20 million hectares in the central and north
areas of Brazil, and they attract processing companies to these areas. Transportation infrastructure is a key
factor for the decision-making processes of soybean companies (Castro, 2005). They prefer to establish grain
crushing units in locations that are close to production sites in order to slash transportation costs. Companies
say they rely on multi-modal transportation systems (waterways, railways, roads and ports) for the outflow of
their production. In the case of soybeans grown in the central and north areas of the country, producers prefer
the following distribution zones: BR-230 Road; Tietê-Paraná waterways, Madeira waterways, TocantinsAraguaia waterways; and the ports of Paranaguá, Santos, Itaqui/Ponta Madeira, Itacoatiara (Amazonas), and
Santarém (Pará).
The paving of the BR-163 Highway will bring about new changes to the landscape. Such changes will
first affect the state of Mato Grosso (south and central Meso-regions) by fostering its economic and urban
life, as well as Santarém (in the north Meso-region) which shall be grown as a port and commercial center.
Such changes shall promote the appearance of new regional urban centers. For example, the town of Sinop
will earn the status of regional capital and will be the backbone of the urban network in the north of Mato
Grosso and southeast of Pará. Cuiabá is likely to become a regional metropolis in the centre of a network of
secondary urban centers, made up of Barra do Garça, Rondonópolis, Sinop, Cáceres and Tangará da Serra.
These cities are currently in the process of being strengthened, and the process will be catalyzed as BR-163
is paved.
Cargill is the company that has been making the most investments in the infrastructure associated with the
paving of the BR-163 Road (Castro, 2005). It has built an export port in Santarém, and is waiting for the
paving works to be complete before it can ship large quantities of soybeans to Asia and Europe. Cargill has
also built grain warehouses in Sorriso and Lucas do Rio Verde. Other companies investing in the area are
Bunge, Maggi and Coimbra. The latter has set up a plant in the municipality of Alto Araguaia (Mato Grosso
state).
The Brazilian cerrado is being rapidly destroyed as the soybean frontier encroaches through medium- and
large-sized properties, with large stretches cleared in short periods of time. This expansion, however, will
basically take place in areas already cleared and covered with pastures, which could lead to the conclusion
that the soybean expansion does not contribute to the removal of forest cover. Nevertheless, analyses of
agricultural frontier expansion in the Amazon show that soybean, pastures, land grabbing, and logging all
belong to the same process. Hence, it might be possible to affirm that, by taking over pasture areas, soybean
cultivation pushes cattle raisers up north, to pristine forest areas. Although the soybean business is an indirect
19
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
cause of deforestation, its relevance as a driving force of this process cannot be disputed (Alencar et al,
2004). This aspect is a central element for this research analysis, which shall be shown later.
3.3 The cattle business
In Brazil, cattle raising has historically been an element of economic development in the mid-west and
north regions. Expansion of economic activities into the “countryside” and progressive “occupation” of new
frontier areas took place over the course of decades, and free-roaming cattle raising has proved to be a most
cost-effective and viable business due to the large tracts of cheap land and large distances, as well as demand
from the industrialized and consuming markets of the country.
From the 1990s, this historical profile started to change as high-tech and capital-intensive agriculture moved
into the region, driven primarily by the soybean business. The share of cattle raising decreased in the midwest regions, while it increased in the northern regions.
Although the relative share of cattle raising is increasing in the Central and North Meso-regions, it is the
South Meso-region that disproportionately has the largest stocks of bovine cattle. Reported growth rates are
also much higher than those of the Central and North Meso-regions, significantly widening the gap between
cattle stocks in the South to all other Meso-regions (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Bovine stocks 1990-2003
Stocks of bovine cattle
number of animals - 1900 to 2003
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Central Meso-region
1996
1997
1998
North Meso-region
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
South Meso-region
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
This substantial increase in the cattle business in the South Meso-region together with the huge expansion
in areas covered by soybean crops is indicative of two phenomena. Firstly, continued deforestation is due
to the need to open up new areas for cattle raising. Secondly, gradual development of the cattle business as
a result of increased use of technology and capital intensity does make it possible to increase herds without
necessarily expanding grazing areas.
20
Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region
South Meso-Region
In the South Meso-region breeding stocks have followed an upward trend and the most pronounced growth
takes place in the Far North Sub-area. Until 1992, the breeding stocks in the Far North were smaller than
those in the Mid-North Sub-area, and only grew comparatively greater from 1994. This trend opposes that
of fast soybean growth in the Mid North, and little or no soybean growth in the Far North, which provides
space for cattle business growth rates.
Central Meso-Region
From a historical perspective, the North Meso-region has had much bigger herds than the Central Mesoregion, more than a threefold difference in fact until the year 2000. From 2000 on, the Central Meso-region
has experienced dramatic growth rates, especially in the Médio Xingu Sub-area (São Félix). The herds in
all other sub-areas in the Central Meso-region also report gradual growth rates, but such rates are not as
significant.
North Meso-Region
In the North Meso-region, sub-areas are breeding stocks at more stable populations or at less pronounced
growth rates, exception being made of the Eastern Transamazônica Road Sub-area, which jumped from a
modest 112,010 headcount in 1990 to 961,942 in 2003 (a 759 per cent increase). The herd density-total area
ratio (not the grazing area) is also revealing (see Figure 6).
Figure 6: Density of cattle stocks (numbers/ha) 1990-2003
30,00
25,00
Cabecas/km2
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
0,00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Central Meso-region
1996
1997
1998
North Meso-region
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
South Meso-region
Source: IBGE (SIDRA) data
21
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
3.4 The logging business
One of the economic activities more commonly associated with frontier expansion and deforestation is
the logging business. Before they are transformed into pastures and subsequently into farming areas, the
deforested land tracts will first have their timber exploited.
Considering the frontier expansion process, one can expect that logging activities have been more intense in
the Mid-West region to meet the demand of large consuming centers, especially in the southeast and south of
the country. One would also expect, though to a lesser extent, more intense logging in the areas under more
influence of the main economic and urban hubs in the North region. South Meso-region is indeed the one
with the most intense logging business (see Figure 7) and logging here is more active than in the North and
Central Meso-regions.
Figure 7: Quantity of wood logs 1990-2003
Quality of Woods logs (m3) from extractive activity
1990 to 2003
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Central Meso-region
1995
1996
1997
1998
North Meso-region
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
South Meso-region
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
Interestingly, however, the South Meso-region had its peak between 1994 and 1996, and has since dropped
to levels below the original level, with some recovery only after 2002. The data suggests that until 1995
logging activity grew hand in hand with growth in the soybean and cattle businesses, but the trend reversed
afterwards. Some suggest that logging activity played a key role in expanding the deforestation frontier up to
the 1990s but from then on, agricultural growth and cattle raising were the main drivers of new deforestation
efforts.
North Meso-region
The North Meso-region has very stable logging rates. The Eastern Transamazônica Road Sub-area is the one
with the highest production rates in the region. Interestingly, this pattern of logging activity in the three Subareas is consistent with the observation that agricultural growth and cattle raising are the main drivers.
22
Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region
Central Meso-region
Though not as significant in terms of logging, the Central Meso-region has seen fast growing logging, notably
in the Vale do Jamanxim Sub-area which reported a fivefold increase in volumes produced in 2003 from
1998. In absolute terms, it was only second to the Sub-areas in the South Meso-region. One can expect that
increased logging is expressed through a subsequent increase in the cattle herds and later through an increase
in cropping areas. Indeed, previous data on cattle raising showed that during the same period, herding also
went through a significant growth process in the region, especially in the Médio Xingu Sub-area.
3.5 Land use and price
The share of private property in land use in the region varies greatly – it is quite low in Central Meso-region
(5.28 per cent), moderately low in the North Meso-region (10.19 per cent) and high in the South Mesoregion (51.65 per cent) with 72.37 per cent in the Far North Sub-area.
Across the entire region, use of “natural forests” (12.44 million hectares) is also significantly above use of
“artificial pastures” (4.5 million), and both are conspicuously above the other uses. Figure 8 has land use by
region in 1996.
Figure 8: Land use by region 1996
Properties area, according to the kind of land use (1996)
1.000.000
1.816.144
7.269.418
3.358.610
3.367.238
900.000
800.000
700.000
600.000
631.641
ha
500.000
502.921
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
0
Mesorregião Central
Permanent crops
Artificial forests
Artificial pastures
Mesorregião
Temporary crops
Natural forests
Non-productive land
Mesorregião Sul
Temporary crops (in rest)
Natural pastures
Productive land, not used
Interestingly, the South Meso-region, despite being the most diversified in terms of thriving economic
activities (soybean, cattle and logging businesses), and despite being the one with the largest deforested
areas (22.74 per cent of the total area, against 3.37 per cent of the Central Meso-region and 4.64 per cent
of the North Meso-region), is the Meso-Region with by far the largest areas of natural forests on properties
- 7.27 million hectares, against 3.36 million in the North Meso-region and 1.82 million in the Central Mesoregion. This is due to the fact that the South Meso-region has the highest percentage share of properties to
total area (51 per cent), an indication that woods and forests are located on private properties.
23
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
In the North Meso-region, land concentration is significantly higher than in the Central (16 per cent of total
properties are large) and South (13 per cent). (See Figure 9).
Figure 9: Numbers and sizes of estates
Participation (%) of the number and total area of estates, according to size ranges
90.0
82.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
%
40.0
30.0
30.1
29.7
26.7
20.0
1.2
0
8.9
8.9
10.0
0 - 50
4.5
2.9
50 - 100
100 - 500
Size ranges
Estates number
5.0
500 - 1000
>= 1000
Estates area (ha)
In the North and South Meso-regions, most estates are concentrated in the 0-50 ha and 50-100 ha ranges. In
the Central Meso-region, small properties do not represent the majority of estates, rather those in the 100-500 ha
range. The largest properties above 1000 ha are mainly found in the South and Central Meso-regions.
Across the entire BR-163 area of influence, the Mid-North Sub-area in the South Meso-Region is the one
that holds the largest tracts of properties, and most number of medium and large properties. Properties in
the 100-500 ha and 500-1,000 ha are essentially concentrated in this sub-area. Properties above 1,000 ha are
found here as well as the Vale do Jamanxim and Médio Xingu Sub-areas in the Central Meso-region.
Land price is a key variable in the frontier expansion process. The appreciation and speculation processes
associated with land tenure are a key element in conversion of land. On the whole, the average land prices
for the different modes of use (despite the scarcity of information about all municipalities and uses in the
region) are considerably higher in the South Meso-region than in any of the others, while prices in the North
Meso-region are higher than those in the Central Meso-region (see Figure 6).
Pristine lands – forests or cerrado – are less valued than pasture lands, which in turn are less valued than
agriculture farming lands. However, land price according to use does not apply to rates at which land prices
appreciate. Forests/cerrado areas are cheaper but their prices grow faster (see Figure 10).
24
Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region
Figure 10: Average land prices by Meso-Region, R$/ha
Land Prices in 2003 (R$/ha)
Average among municipalities
6,000.00
5,640.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
R$/ha
3,601.25
3,000.00
1,928.91
2,000.00
1,562.50
-
1,069.86
1,034.60
1,000.00
680,67
181,67
Average in Central
600,00
331,33
Average in North MR
Forest/Cerrado
515.87
Average in South
Pastures
Total Average
Crops
25
4. Economic, social and
environmental indicators
and links
4.1 Economic indicators
4.1.1 Gross domestic product (GDP)
According to data gathered by IBGE, the highest GDP in absolute terms in 1996 was recorded by the North
Meso-region (52 per cent of total GDP in the region). However, as of 1999 the highest GDP levels are found
in the South Meso-region, an indication of the region’s higher economic development probably driven by the
soybean business (see Table 3 and Figure 11).
Table 3: Gross domestic product of municipalities
Meso-region
Sub-Area
North Meso-region
Lower Tapajós
1996
1999
2000
2001
2002
44.418,85117.264,79108.040,88117.714,21144.172,32
Right bank of Amazon river566.400,29785.906,41773.905,52803.121,95950.609,03
Left bank of Amazon river976.438,361.000.186,041.096.546,451.034.404,291.244.156,54
L and R banks of Amazon river1.542.838,651.786.092,451.870.451,971.837.526,242.194.765,58
Eastern Transamazônica Road192.472,51
Central Meso-region
483.990,52
448.339,60506.052,16802.547,56
Total 1.779.730,02 2.387.347,76 2.426.832,452.461.292,61 3.141.485,46
Médio Xingu38.735,37244.472,76265.754,40327.790,96357.683,33
Central Transamazônica Road51.645,9088.076,1991.614,5694.035,00110.254,16
Vale do Jamanxim211.154,82528.032,82
Total
301.536,09
860.581,77
402.207,79
464.551,07534.089,93
759.576,75 886.377,04 1.002.027,42
South Meso-region
Mid-North of Mato Grosso963.080,561.774.426,482.064.490,892.014.455,452.429.305,79
Far North of Mato Grosso380.145,84764.815,62834.859,01801.648,85890.413,52
Total 1.343.226,40 2.539.242,10 2.899.349,902.816.104,30 3.319.719,31
Total 3.424.492,51 5.787.171,62 6.085.759,116.163.773,95 7.463.232,19
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
27
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Figure 11: GDP growth by Meso-regions 1996-2002
GDP progress - 1996 a 2002
3,500.000.00
3,000.000.00
2,500.000.00
R$ de 2000
2,000.000.00
1,500.000.00
1,000.000.00
500.000.00
0.00
1996
1999
North Meso-region
2000
Central Meso-region
2001
2002
South Meso-region
In all three Meso-regions, GDP has grown during the period, with localized drops at given times. The Central
Meso-region, for example, saw a sharp drop of GDP for Vale do Jamanxim Sub-area in 1999-2000, which
was why regional output declined 11.7 per cent during the same period. The highest growth rates for all three
regions were reported for 2001-2002. GDP growth rates in the 1999-2002 period were also substantially
lower than those for the 1996-1999 period.
4.1.2 Income profile
Income profile analysis in the region was based on municipal RAIS data for the years 1990, 1995, 2000,
and 2003 (2003 being the latest year available at the time of writing). Here income data refers to the annual
average of the total income, measured in terms of minimum salaries and regarded as generated by workers
formally employed in the various sectors.
The data shows that the North Meso-region had the highest income levels during the entire period considered,
followed by the Central Meso-region. The South Meso-region was last. This was surprising since the South
had a higher GDP rate and was comparatively more developed than the other two sub-regions.
Secondly, the analysis of share of the income generated by the various sectors shows that although agriculture
was the most widespread sector in the area of influence, workers in agriculture had lower levels of formal
income. This could be an indicator of labour informality of the sector. On the other hand, the service sector
accounted for a significant share of income generation, at 52.91 per cent in 2003. Industrial sector accounted
for 21.74 per cent, commerce for 15.65 per cent, agriculture for 7.96 per cent and civil construction by only
1.74 per cent.
28
Economic, social and environmental indicators and links
The service sector is highly represented for the North and Central Meso-regions, and low for the South
Meso-region, although the this Meso-region was the most developed. Also, a dramatic decline in income was
reported in the 1990-1995 period in all three Meso-regions. An analysis shows that this sudden decline began
in the service sector, and was more pronounced in the North and Central Meso-regions, where the sector was
more dominant. See Figure 12 for 2003’s income distribution in the Meso-regions.
Figure 12: Income distribution by sector 2003
Sector Distribution of year average Income, in Minimum Salary unities (year 2003)
20,000.0
18,000.0
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0
Industry
Civil Building
North Meso-region
Trade
Central Meso-region
Sevices
Central Meso-region
Agriculture
Total
Source: RAIS
4.1.3 Employment profile
The employment profile analysis in the region was based on the municipal RAIS data for the years 1990,
1995, 2000, and 2003 (2003 being the latest year available) on average annual number of formal jobs in the
various sectors.
The first factor to be considered is the gap between the behavior of income and employment data. First
of all, while the South Meso-Region has lagged behind the North and Central Meso-regions in terms of
income generation, it stands out in employment opportunities. Across all sectors, employment generation
was disproportionately higher than income generation, wages associated to formal jobs were lower.
Overall, the employment pattern over time matched income generation in the sense that both reported weak
growth rates. Though employment generation did have occasional decreases, it did not show consistent
decline like that experienced by income in the 1990-1995 period. Employment by sector also showed
the importance of services in the north and agriculture and industry in the south when it came to income
generation (see Figure 13).
29
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Figure 13: Employment by sector 2003
Sector Distribution of number of employees (year 2003)
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
Industry
Civil Building
North Meso-region
Trade
Central Meso-region
Sevices
Agriculture
South Meso-region
Source: RAIS
4.2 Social indicators
4.2.1 Human Development Index
The following overall characteristics for Human Development Index (HDI) for the BR-163 area of influence
1991-2000 have been identified:
• In general, the entire region’s HDI is substantially low: 0.633 in 1991 and 0.716 in 2000.
• The gap across the regions is also meaningful - minimum value of 0.621 and maximum value of 0.824 in
the year 2000.
• In all three Meso-regions and in all categories (education, longevity and income HDI), HDI was rising.
• In average terms, HDI was low in the North Meso-region, intermediate in the Central Meso-region, and
higher in the South Meso-region.
• As an overall pattern, HDI in Education and Longevity were closely correlated (see Figures 14, 15 and
16).
30
Economic, social and environmental indicators and links
Figure 14: Overall HDI, 1991 and 2000
Evolution of average HDI-M
1.000
0.900
0.700
0.757
0.707
0.800
0.591
0.671
0.626
0.716
0.671
0.633
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
1991
North Meso-region
2000
Year
Central Meso-region
South Meso-region
Average 3 MRs
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
Figure 15: Longevity HDI, 1991 and 2000
Evolution of average HDI-M (Longevity)
1.000
0.900
0.705
0.800
0.619
0.700
0.644
0.671
0.746
0.725
0.727
0.646
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
1991
North Meso-region
2000
Year
Central Meso-region
South Meso-region
Average 3 MRs
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
31
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Figure 16: Education HDI, 1991 and 2000
Evolution of average HDI-M (Education)
1.000
0.823
0.900
0.769
0.800
0.700
0.641
0.695
0.757
0.793
0.661
0.695
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
2000
1991
North Meso-region
Central Meso-region
South Meso-region
Average 3 MRs
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
4.2.2 Poverty levels
The poverty levels (monthly income per inhabitant under R$75.50) and indigence levels (monthly income
per inhabitant under R$37.75) in the area of influence were alarming. In 1991, 50.34 per cent on average
were poor, 25.56 per cent were indigent (extremely poor). By 2000, 44.85 per cent were still poor, and
24.94 per cent were indigent. Besides the high levels identified, poverty decline over the decade was hardly
significant.
Poverty and indigence levels were substantially higher in the North Meso-region, lower in the South Mesoregion, and intermediate in the Central Meso-region in both 1991 and 2000. Between 1991 and 2000, the
decline in poverty was small in the North Meso-region, and more significant in the South Meso-region. No
poverty improvement occurred for the Central Meso-region, but poverty and indigence levels rose instead
(see Figures 17 and 18).
32
Economic, social and environmental indicators and links
Figure 17: Poverty levels
Percentage of people having per capita family income lower than R$75,50 (poverty line)
69.99
66.10
70.00
60.00
50.34
45.16
43.72
50.00
44.85
34.81
40.00
26.18
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1991
North Meso-region
2000
Central Meso-region
South Meso-region
Average 3 MRs
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
Figure 18: Indigence levels
Percentage of people having per capita family income lower than R$37,75 (indigence line)
45.00
41.22
41.03
40.00
35.00
25.56
30.00
24.94
25.09
20.41
25.00
20.00
13.53
11.26
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1991
North Meso-region
2000
Central Meso-region
South Meso-region
Average 3 MRs
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
33
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
4.2.3 Healthcare
The state of healthcare has a close relationship to output and competitiveness of trade and other activities.
The Sub-regions that had the most commercial, industrial and services activities overlap in terms of primary
healthcare infrastructure. Full healthcare capabilities are concentrated in the more urban areas of Mato Grosso
(21 per cent of diagnosis and therapies, and 12 per cent of hospitalization). In Pará, this capacity drops to 8
and 9 per cent respectively. And in the Amazonas the figures are 8 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. A
worker who needs more complex medical service will likely have to go to the capital. In the case of Pará, the
number of people seeking healthcare treatment in Teresina (state of Piauí) has been on the rise.
The poorest regions are those that are most lacking in healthcare. Tropical diseases are a relevant indicator,
with malaria one of the single most representative disease associated with deforestation and water resources
allocation (see Table 4). In addition, it can be found in both urban and rural settings.
Table 4: Malaria cases in Meso-regions 1999-2004
Number of cases/year % Change
State
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004 1999/2004
Acre23.73021.5607.7749.21612.24731.60833.2
Amazonas167.72296.026
48.38570.223140.642146.296
-12.8
Amapá28.64635.27824.48716.25716.65020.252
-29.3
Maranhão54.80078.81839.50716.00011.01714.092
-74.3
Mato Grosso10.95011.7676.8327.0855.0226.446
-41.1
Pará248.233278.204186.367149.088115.605107.026
-56.9
Rondônia63.29654.07457.67971.22493.786106.63468.5
Roraima36.23835.87416.0288.03611.81925.811
-28.8
Tocantins2.0311.6401.2441.1301.207848
-58.2
Legal Amazon
-27.8
Source:
635.646
513.241
388.303
348.259
407.995
459.013
SISMAL, SIVEP – Malaria.
The data points to cases of malaria in the Amazon, where about 98 per cent of all cases are concentrated.
Malaria in urban centers is still a major public health issue, especially in expanding cities like Manaus. The
map in Figure 19 shows that the high risk regions overlap with those regions where deforestation pressures
are more intense, including expanding urban areas like capitals and cities of all sizes in the region.
34
Economic, social and environmental indicators and links
Figure 19: Annual incidence of parasites in Brazil
Source: SISMAL, SIVEP – Malaria
However, according to the Ministry of Health’s Secretariat for Sanitary Surveillance, the Annual Incidence
of Parasites (AIP) for malaria in the states located in the Amazon in 1999-2004 showed seven out of nine
states having dramatic reductions in AIP. The most dramatic reductions took place in the states of Tocantins,
Maranhão, Pará, and Roraima. This reduction was due to stepped-up control efforts by the Ministry of
Health’s General Coordination of the National Malaria Control Programme (CGPNCM), and also due to
lower indicators related to the disease’s replication environment in the regions.
4.2.4 Education
The educational deficit is a widespread problem in the area of influence of BR-163. There are islands of
excellence in those municipalities with high HDI ratings and more economic development. The municipalities
with the worst educational indicators are also the ones with the worst local GDPs and highest poverty
rates. Municipalities in the state of Pará had the highest percentage of illiterates aged 10 or older (125,000
individuals, who accounted for 16 per cent of all illiterates in the area of influence).
Some municipalities with percentages of uneducated population above 20 per cent (such as Anapu,
Jacaraecanga, Porto de Moz, Senador José Porfírio, Trairão, and Uruará) are logging frontiers with a
seasonal population. These are also municipalities with elevated poverty levels. More southern areas like
35
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Sinop, Sorriso, Lucas do Rio Verde, and Nova Mutum municipalities report better rates (around 10 per cent)
because of intra-regional migration taking place in these municipalities.
The survey conducted by ESALQ (2004) indicated a trend towards privatization of education in the more
economically developed and populated Sub-regions. In Amazonas, only 2.2 per cent of schools provide
secondary education. In Pará, a mere 3 per cent, but in Mato Grosso this jumps to 11.5 per cent. Data for the
three states show that the investments in secondary education are short of the required levels.
4.3 Environmental impact indicators
The main indicators are found in deforested areas, since they reflect eco-systemic conditions or have a direct
relationship.
4.3.1 Recent state of deforestation
Deforestation data in Brazil are currently gathered and disseminated by INPE based on satellite-generated
images. These showed an alarming situation of increasing deforestation rates. The following remarks are
based on INPE’s data (see Table 5 and Figure 20).
Table 5: Deforested area 2000-2004
Meso-region
North Meso-region
Sub-Area
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Lower Tapajós2.6733.4343.5423.6793.279
Right bank of Amazon river8.1949.4179.5999.2439.067
Left bank of Amazon river8.71813.41812.16013.42112.024
L and R banks of Amazon river16.91322.83521.75922.66321.091
Eastern Transamazônica Road3.6195.564
Total
Central Meso-region
23.204
31.833
4.91711.13211.454
37.474
35.824
Médio Xingu6.7628.7289.95111.25411.938
Central Transamazônica Road3.562
30.218
4.214
4.7975.3256.203
Vale do Jamanxim5.9037.4388.33511.15512.410
27.734
30.550
South Meso-region
Mid-North of Mato Grosso31.00932.87335.96039.655
Total
44.194
Far North of Mato Grosso26.03030.03931.90133.13732.995
16.227
20.379
23.084
Total
57.038
62.911
67.861
72.792
77.189
Total 96.469
115.123
121.162
138.000
143.563
Source: INPE
36
Economic, social and environmental indicators and links
Figure 20: Deforestation trends 2000-2004
Progress of Deforested Area
km² - 2000 to 2004
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2001
Central Meso-region
2002
North Meso-region
2003
2004
South Meso-region
The South Meso-region had the highest absolute levels of deforested area. Since the South Meso-region
was the smallest in the area of influence (20.3 per cent of the total area), the deforested area becomes even
more significant. Deforested areas in the Meso-region was 22.74 per cent of land area in 2000 and jumped to
30.78 per cent in 2004, against respectively 4.64 per cent and 7.16 per cent for the North Meso-region, and
3.37 per cent and 6.34 per cent for the Central Meso-region. Deforestation growth was highest 2000-2001
and has since fallen.
South Meso-region
In the South Meso-region, the Mid-North Sub-area had the largest deforested area in absolute terms, and
high and rising growth rates of deforestation. The Far North Sub-area however had the fastest growth of
deforestation, since deforested areas jumped to 38.98 per cent from 30.75 per cent between 2000 and 2004.
Central Meso-region
The Central Meso-region has the lowest total levels of deforested areas. Exception should be made of the
Vale do Jamanxin Sub-area. It has significant deforestation levels, but showed acceleration in deforestation
between 2002 and 2003. It was now the largest deforested area in the Meso-region. The highest percentage
of deforestation area to total land size however was Médio Xingu. The Vale do Jamanxim Sub-area had
fastest growing deforestation.
North Meso-region
The North Meso-region has more total deforested areas than the Central Meso-region, but deforestation has
fluctuating growth rates. The large portions of deforested areas lie on the left bank of the Amazon River Subarea. The Sub-area bearing the greatest percentages of deforested area is the Eastern Transamazônica Road,
which jumped from 4.56 per cent in 2000 to 14.44 per cent in 2004.
37
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
4.4 Economic expansion, environment and poverty links
4.4.1 Land occupation and deforestation
Protected areas (such as conservation units, military areas and indigenous lands) account for 27 per cent of
BR-163 highway area of influence, for a total of 332,640 km² (GTI, 2004). Out of this, indigenous lands
cover 197,000 km² (or 20 per cent of the area) and for the most part are lands belonging to the Kayapós, Baú
and Menkragnoti (south of Pará); Mundurucus (west of Pará); Apyterewa, Araweté and Trincheira-Bacajá
(in the mid-south of Pará); and Cachoeira Seca and Arara, along Pará’s Iriri river.
Sustainable use conservation units cover 40.8 thousand km² in total (4.2 per cent of total protected areas).
Economic activities are conducted in this type of conservation unit, provided that the principle of sustainable
management of natural resources is applied. The main ones are the National Forests of Altamira (680,000
ha), Itaituba I (220,000 ha), Itaituba II (440,000 ha), Tapajós (600,000 ha), Saraçá-Taquera (429,000 ha),
and the Tapajós-Arapiuns Extractive Reserve (647,000 ha). On the other hand, the integral protection units
for conservation purposes (where only scientific research and ecotourism activities are allowed) account for
less than 1 per cent, such as the National Amazon Park. Finally, the military base of Cachimbo covers 2.3
per cent (22.5 thousand km²).
An extraordinary land area is already in use (764,717 km²) and exceeds the 20 per cent considered as the
maximum legal forest cover to be deforested. Now is perhaps the right moment to act. Expansion will
now take place in specific, more fragmented areas, and it will be driven by opportunities arising from
institutionalization of land use at the macro level.
4.4.2 Frontier, poverty and environment
In this process driving economics and demographics of frontier advance, environmental, economic and social
effects are interwoven. With intense agribusiness expansion, the economic and population repercussions fuel
a cycle of poverty-environment relationship.
Firstly, the dual and contradictory character of agro-exporting capital and its effects on social conditions,
especially poverty, have to be identified. Capital expansion creates social space (legal or illegal) for income
and employment generation and patrimonial gains. On the other hand, it can happen in a concentrated and
exclusionary way, increasing pressures for land use conversion, “expulsion” from small landholdings, and
marginalization and poverty pockets.
Secondly, the phenomenon is characterized by asymmetric inter-regional relationships. Economic gains are
concentrated in the hands of actors based in other regions of the country and even in foreign countries.
Capital concentration in the hands of big city groups connected to agribusiness and cattle consolidate the
economic occupation of a region. Examples would be agro-industry and timber industries connecting the
center-south of the country to large national and multinational commodities conglomerates, especially those
dealing in soybeans (Cargill, Bunge, Maggi, etc.). Economic expansion in the region attracts high migration
from other regions. Hence some forms of economic expansion are marked by “exporting economic gains”
and “importing poor people”.
Poverty is extremely dynamic in that region because it currently attracts labour surpluses from the entire
nation. The more job opportunities are created, the more migrants will be attracted, part of a region of
speculation where agents for hire, entrepreneurs and workers search for any economic opportunity. The
workers who come increase the demand and occupation of land.
38
Economic, social and environmental indicators and links
Economic expansion in the region does bring social gains. South Meso-region is the one that has
comparatively the best indexes for HDI, GDP, employment and poverty, and also the best healthcare and
education structures. However this does not mean that access to opportunities is equal.
Rural family-based production is typical in the area of influence, and has begun to come under pressure from
cattle raising and agribusiness production. Family-based agriculture is compelled to move to marginal and
more distant regions. The ongoing migration of settlers to other temporary activities or other settlements is
another driver of rural poverty with heavy impacts on urban poverty.
Social changes promote environmental impacts and environmental changes promote social impacts.
Population movements on the frontier bring chaotic deforestation. People abandon their living conditions
and are pushed into more deleterious socio-environmental health conditions. Cities are pressed beyond their
capacity to receive new consumers of water and energy and users of sanitary disposal systems. Watersheds
close to the cities tend to become polluted and silted up. In turn, environmental impacts affect people, such
as:
• Deforestation and impoverished human settlements tend to promote endemic diseases, especially
malaria.
• Soil impoverishment – agricultural sectors suffer the most under the scenario of a territory regulated by
market rules. Lands become more expensive and are intensively cultivated.
• Workers and their families are the most affected by agrochemicals when production is mechanized.
• Inhabitants of cities tend to suffer increased vehicle traffic, high heat rates from more paved roads and
few green venting areas in the cities.
• Natural foods are likely to be in shorter supply as industrial products become pervasive in the market.
4.4.3 Winners and losers
In the present scenario, the following winners and losers may be identified:
Winners include:
1. Sectors with the most capacity to adapt to competitive situations, in those cities that do have some
infrastructure. Rural and urban economic sectors with the ability to acquire lands, especially lands under
tenure. Examples are soybean agroindustrial complex, local elites, exporters, producers and agricultural
cooperatives, services sector connected to agribusiness, associations of small producers who contribute
organizational and productive effectiveness, and family-based farmers closer to thriving consumption
centres.
2. Those sectors not willing to conform to the new legal framework for natural resource and territory
management, and are not willing to afford the costs required to modernize their operations. Examples are
cattle raisers, rogue logging companies, holders of rural and urban lands, illegal economy (contraband,
drug trafficking, land grabbing, “cartorialismo”), river carriers and politicians connected to the agrarian
economy.
3. Conventional managers of macroeconomic policy, who seek increasing domestic product and trade
balance surpluses.
39
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Losers include landless segments of the population (family-based farmers who left the business or are in a
situation of low competitiveness); indigenous individuals with a strong relationship of subordination to the
market; cattle raisers unable to raise the efficiency and output of his active lands; traditional populations that
are not able to add value to their products; and urban populations.
For losses of individual stakeholders, see Appendix I.
40
5. Integrated assessment and
scenarios
Integrated Assessment in this context aims to identify the different causal relationships between central
variables, and seeks to determine the dynamics of deforestation and its interrelationships. Analysis is then
performed to build scenarios based on these relationships, so balanced policy recommendations can be made.
Two facts are outstanding from analysis – soybeans were identified as prevalent in the area of influence and
most typical in the South Meso-region, especially in Mid-North Sub-area, but the most apparent cause of
deforestation appeared to be logging and cattle raising activities. The Deforestation Arch does not seem to
have any discernible relationship to soybean crops expansion.
However the reality is more complex. While it is true that deforestation dynamics in the Amazon can not
any longer be characterized as a “moving frontier” process with chaotic, rushed and illicit land occupation,
deforestation, migration and land occupation processes persist, and land value speculation business definitely
persists. These indicators typical for the “Deforestation Arch” are not isolated elements and have clear
structural dependence on certain causes in the region. Soybean expansion, as part of a process “transmissionchain”, pushes the deforestation frontier outward.
5.1 Causal relationships
The intention here is to identify the underlying causal relationships between the individual variables in order
to analyze how changes in two fundamental vectors - mainly the level of market activity and the ability to
pursue public policies – produce different outcomes for each scenario ultimately.
The following working assumption is used initially - the primary reason behind increasing deforestation and
harmful and uncontrolled territory settlement activities is the land price speculation cycle, whose structure
is based on illegal land settlement and land tenure model (both arising due to weak public policies and
governance), and the pressure exerted by demand for land driven primarily by the soybean industry and by
other thriving crops (signs of high market economic dynamism).
Although the arguments used by some authors seem to be genuine, claiming that the soybean industry is not
causing deforestation, but rather the logging and beef cattle raising activities, the project team believed it
was important to analyze deforestation-causing economic development in the region and identify the land
price appreciation process. Deforestation has its source in land price appreciation as a result of speculation.
The transmission chain is:
1. Land tenure and occupation. The characteristics of land occupation and tenure are mainly due to low
land acquisition costs, which are the result of land grabbing, violence, collusion with officials in power,
corruption and illegal activities, and high expectation of land price increases, given expected economic
development in the region.
41
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
The less Public Policy Capacity (PPC), the less the authorities are able to control illegal activities, the less
the “cost of illegality”, the greater the potential for profitable mischief, the greater the Level of Market
Activity (LMA), the higher the expectation of new productive uses for land, and therefore a higher
expectation of increases in land price, pushing agents towards land speculation.
2. Occupation and deforestation for timber. Following such land tenure characteristics, the land is seen
to contain a significant and highly profitable stock of extremely liquid capital in the form of timber. The
interests of original squatters and of loggers may be expressed through occupying the unclaimed land as
an asset, and extracting gains from logging.
3. Deforestation and cattle rearing. The third moment is associated with cattle raising. Once a piece of
land is deforested, the prevailing use is the development of pastures for cattle raising. Again, this may be
undertaken by a single actor or by multiple actors. In some cases, the introduction of cattle may simply
mean a higher added value activity and that the cattle raiser has acquired lands from the original squatters
at prices that will have met his expectations in terms of speculative appreciation. In other cases, the same
actor who occupies the land may deforest himself to gain working capital for cattle raising activities.
4. Cattle rearing and agriculture. With the shift towards higher value added agricultural activities,
especially soybean cropping, pastures and properties with some established infrastructure are then turned
over to agribusiness. More value will be added to the land, which attests to the speculative appreciation
that triggered this process.
This is a dynamic, concurrent and self-reinforcing process that is set in motion by the expected appreciation
of land value by the squatter. This expectation may be based on his awareness of more thriving agricultural
markets in expansion. As a result, the supply of cheap land is increased. Such low costs pull soybean cropping
and other technology-intensive crops into these areas, a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy (see Figure 21).
Figure 21: A dynamic, concurrent and self-reinforcing process
Low
PPC
Increase
Lower
in land
land
supply
price
Fosters land
Fosters soybean
grabbing and
and other
deforestation
agribusiness crops
Higher
land price
42
Increase
in land
demand
High
LMA
Integrated assessment and scenarios
5.2 Public policies and governance
For the purpose of Integrated Assessment, there is a need to identify potential changes from the implementation
of stronger public policies and governance. Public Policy Capacity is seen here in two aspects - the fiscal
status of the State in terms of ability to spend and invest, and the normative and regulating powers of
the State in its institutional and organizational capacity, especially to control illegal land occupation and
deforestation, and encourage to more socially and environmentally sustainable activities.
Governing bodies must have the correct ability to mediate conflicts and contradictions in order to get the best
results, even at the cost of going against interests of specific actors. Thus, while the ability to pursue social
and environmental public policies depends on the financial health of the State, an improved fiscal capacity
of the State does not necessarily imply improved governance.
Specifically, BR-163 Plan aims to be an instrument to mediate these contradictions, since the public policies
for road paving and other infrastructure buildings bring economic benefits but also bring about socioenvironmental impacts. The Plan thus proposes actions that are socially beneficial, even though they might
lead to some restriction of “free market” forces (see Figure 22).
Figure 22: BR-163 strategies for sustainable development
LMA
⇒
Land occupation
⇒
Deforestation
⇒
⇑
⇑
Increased areas
⇒
for pasture
⇑
Increased areas for agriculture
⇑
⇑
Paving
Fight against
Fight against illegal
Encourage to
Encouragement
and other illegal acts and logging activities.
a diversified
to a diversified
measures
land grabbing
Encouragement to a
production, production,
diversified production, sustainable
sustainable
sustainable technologies
technologies and technologies and
and addition of value
addition of value
addition of value
Ordinary policies
Social and environmental governance
PUBLIC POLICIES
With contradictions among different public policies, scenario analysis will consider different actions to obtain
profiles of possible outcomes. Thus, scenarios analysis shall consider that implementation of policies (see
Table 6) might differ significantly in effectiveness according to changes in the scenarios’ main variables.
Table 6: Public policies and impacts
Public Policies
Impacts
Fight against illegal acts and land grabbing
- Land Price:
For increased sale price in legal areas
For removal of supply in illegal areas
Fight against illegal logging activities
- Cleared area: reduction
- Extracted logs:
For Reduction in illegal logging rates
For Increased price
Encouragement to a diversified - Increased area and production rates for new thriving activities
production, use of technology and - Relative decreases in cattle raising and soybean production
addition of value
(with potential growth in absolute terms)
- Increased income and job creation
Encouragement to concentrated production
- Inducement to the Level of Market Activity
and conventional investments (roads, energy, - Absolute increase in area and production rates for conventional
communications, etc.)
activities: cattle raising and soybean production.
43
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
5.3 Scenarios
A critical component in the discussion about BR-163 Plan is paving of sections that are yet unbuilt, which
is lengthier than otherwise. Demanded by the soybean production community in the north of the state of
Mato Grosso to help channel production to the port of Santarém, the paving works are, however, opposed by
environmentalists and other segments of civil society who think it might lead to uncontrolled land occupation,
deforestation and predatory frontier expansion, if paving were conducted in a vacuum and there was a lack
of broader policy for regional development and regulation. Hence, the purpose of the BR-163 Plan is to
assemble public policies required to avoid this.
Thus, paving and ability to enforce social, environmental and agrarian public policies are key elements for
the scenario-building exercise.
Looking at the trends of the Level of Market Activity, paving of the road is clearly one of its determinant
factors. Another is the possible economic slow-down caused by a slowing international economy, which over
the past few years has been enjoying a virtuous cycle due to American fiscal deficits and China’s astonishing
growth. With possible reversion, this would cause the soybean industry expansion in Brazil to slow down.
Seen in overall, PPC and LMA are precisely the core determinant factors (the exogenous variables) behind
the deforestation frontier expansion cycle described above.
Both are closely correlated and even interdependent – PPC will be stronger given better State fiscal status
from high economic activity, but economic activity will also be stronger given more enhancing policies. Our
scenarios are based on (see Table 7):
1. Public policy capacity (PPC), strengthened or weakened.
2. Level of Market Activity (LMA), strong or weak.
Table 7: Scenario construction summary for IAP
Level of Market Activity (LMA)
Weak
Strong
Public Policy
Scenario 1 – Economic stagnation/ Scenario 3 – Economic growth /
Capacity Social and environmental inequality Social and environmental inequality
and degradation
and degradation
Scenario 2 – Endogenous Scenario 4 – Sustainable
Non-strengthened
Strengthened
development / Social and development / Social and
environmental governance
environmental distributional governance
The four scenarios above are presented in detail below.
5.4 Scenario 1: Status quo with no BR-163
This scenario applies when:
• The international economy has low growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities
is poor, leading the national and regional economies to stagnated integration with global markets and low
domestic incentives.
• Central and local public authorities are weakened, whether for structural and financial insufficiency reasons
or due to political insufficiency (through political cooption by conservative and personal interests).
44
Integrated assessment and scenarios
This scenario depicts maintenance or a return to the region’s historical status before the agro-exporting
boom. It is still applicable to vast areas of the North Meso-region, characterized by low degree of economic
development, high poverty rates, poorly integrated local economies, economic and political power in the
hands of traditional patrimonial oligarchies, absence and/or capture of public authorities, significant illegal
acts and high crime rate. In specific terms, such a future scenario involves non-pavement of the road and
non-implementation of the BR-163 Plan for sustainability, or other public regulation mechanisms that are
currently being implemented (see Table 8).
Table 8: Scenario 1 indicators
Soybean and Agribusiness
3 Low activity rate: low prices, low gains, low investments
Local production activities
3 High land concentration and traditional crops, by local oligarchies
3 Family-based production very weakly integrated and supported
3 Subsistence activities.
Poverty
3 Very high
Interaction of agribusiness 3 Local conservative land alliance (including all other traditional industries and with all other sectors
oligarchies)
3 Precarious employment relations
3 Poor commitment towards mitigating poverty and improving life standards
3 Poor dialogue with the organized civil society
Public Policy
3 Fragile, slow and focusing
3 Mitigating acts at the margin and insufficient/ineffective mitigating acts
3 Public investments, with restrictions
3 Influence of the power of local oligarchies
Environmental impact
3 High. Decreased economic pressure regarding land occupation, though with strong Encouragement to sustainability
encouragement to illegal acts; increased deforestation
3 Weak
The scenario is strongly influenced by low tax revenues, and access to goods and services proves to be
restrictive and concentrated in the most privileged segments. Benefits are significantly concentrated in the
hands of traditional sectors and oligarchies, and across the entire business sector (commerce and services)
which is directly or indirectly associated to them. Presence of the State, institutions, and public policies is
poor. As a result, there are only a few clientele poverty mitigation measures. The fight against deforestation
is also fragile. The private sector is socially, environmentally and also economically predatory, since it does
not allow new segments in the economy to grow.
5.5 Scenario 2: Endogenous local development with social and
environmental governance, no BR-163
This scenario for the region may apply in a context where:
• The international economy has low growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities
is poor (see above) .
• National and local public authorities have been strengthened in their ability to pursue public policies,
due to the restoration of structural and financial capacities after deficits, and institutional and political
capacities to channel government actions towards serving social and public interests.
• Public authorities are drivers of regional and local development actions, leading to income and job creation,
with significant impact to compensate for the poor economic integration with the global market.
This scenario has to do with a plausible success situation of current government efforts to push forward
social and environmental reforms through regulation and incentives, and increase engagement of the civil
society. And this should occur at the same time with recovery of public finance and fiscal health of the State,
as well as the maintenance of stable progressive stances across the various administrations.
45
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
In this scenario, however, there is a lack of energy provided by a bustling market and, therefore, no significant
pressure on the part of the agri-exporting sector. Nevertheless, some regional and local economic development
has been identified, even to a limited extent. This boosts job creation and local income (from family-based
agriculture, cooperatives, feedlot and diversified cattle raising, small and medium-sized industries, trade and
services, and micro businesses in general) and social policies in general (education, healthcare, food safety,
income distribution, etc.). The paths and initiatives pursued over the past few years by the administrations of
the states of Acre and Amapá are an illustration. Economic development is not strong enough to establish a
level of development that breaks the inherited poverty and inequality levels in the region (see Table 9).
Table 9: Scenario 2 indicators
Soybean and Agribusiness
3 Low activity rate: low prices, low gains, low investments
3 Increased political conflict regarding soybean growers (and all other traditional sectors) and social public policies
Local production activities
3 Efforts to disperse land and traditional oligarchies crops
3 Family small production more integrated and supported
3 Subsistence activities remain, but now supported
Poverty
3 Medium – high
Interaction of agribusiness 3 Local conservative land alliance (including all other traditional industries and
with all other sectors
oligarchies), but with more limited power
3 Work relations are less precarious and more formal, even if volume of jobs that is not
yet so large.
3 Increased commitment towards mitigating poverty and improving life standards
3 Increased dialog between the sector and the civil society
Public Policy
3 Strengthened, progressive and universalizing
3 Both urgent and structural mitigating actions
3 Government investments under less restrictions and focused on development
and social aims.
3 Decreased influence from the agro-exporting sector’s power and local oligarchies
3 More social control, still more defensive rather than proactive Environmental impact
3 Smaller from decreased economic pressure of land occupation, and increased control Encouragement to and discouragement to illegal acts
3 Major
sustainability
The regional GDP rate is likely to be lower within this Scenario than in Scenario 3, but income and jobs
created are likely to be bigger and better distributed, and gains will remain in the region. The State may
see enhanced tax collection capacity and successfully manage its expenses to foster economic sectors with
potential for income and job creation, and to meet social expenses for better public access to goods and
services.
There is better distribution of benefits here, with strong governance and furthering of endogenous conditions
for economic and social development. The proceeds from more endogenous and local activities also translate
into local income and jobs. The private sector is socially, environmental and economically positive, since it
tends to be associated to new segments with a good social and environmental impact, though in economic
terms they do not yet provide outstanding performance.
46
Integrated assessment and scenarios
5.6 Scenario 3 – Dependent globalized competitive growth with
social and environmental inequality and degradation, with BR-163
This scenario for the region may apply in a context where:
• The international economy has high growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities
is strong, thus encouraging the national and regional economies to be strongly integrated, though a
dependent one with high domestic incentives to agro-exporting sectors, but whose economic effects are
concentrated.
• The central and local public authorities are weakened, whether for structural and financial insufficiency
reasons or due to political insufficiency (through political cooption by conservative and personal interests
and by the very prevalent agro-exporting sectors).
This scenario represents a 15-20 year forward projection of the current situation of the expanding agro-exporting
sector and the weak State (see Table 10). The highway is paved and the BR-163 Plan implemented.
Table 10: Scenario 3 indicators
Soybean and Agribusiness
3 High activity rate: high prices, high gains, high investments
3 Soybean growers with enhanced economic and political power
Local production activities
3 High land concentration, specially for agribusiness and cattle-raising
3 Family small production weakly integrated and supported
Poverty
3 High
Interaction of agribusiness
3 Economic and political dominance of soybean in the chain with other sectors
with all other sectors
3 Precarious employment relations, though somewhat more formal (than in Scenario 1)
and with a more significant volume of jobs
3 Poor commitment towards mitigating poverty and improving life standards:
Agribusiness alleges commitment as if generated by the income and job themselves generated by the activity
3 Poor dialogue with the organized civil society
Public Policy
3 Fragile, slow and focusing
3 Mitigating acts are only at the margin and inefficient
3 Government investments under restrictions, but concentrated and aiming at addressing the demands of the agro-exporting sector
3 Strong influence of the power of the agro-exporting sector and local oligarchies
Environmental impact
3 Major – Increased pressure regarding land occupation, with a strong encouragement to illegal acts and to deforestation.
Encouragement to 3 Very low
sustainability
With Scenario 3, the economic momentum generated by BR-163 highway leads to unpredictability in income
levels in Pará and Amazonas. Family income level tends to either stabilize or drop depending on supply of
formal employment.
47
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Although under this Scenario a booming economy is assumed, poor enforcement capacity of the government
and the high level of illegal acts cause tax revenues to remain disappointing. Santarém and all other
municipalities have production operations that are not taxed. For example, in 2004, Santarém failed to
collect municipal taxes on exports worth R$380 million because these were duty-free commodities under
the Kandir Act.
The paving works would increase the uncertainties involved in ensuing occupation, labour and social
problems. An increase in urban labour livelihoods should drive up urban violence, poverty, and undercut
public health indicators.
The benefits are heavily concentrated in the hands of agribusiness-related sectors, and they hardly generate
local/regional effects, but they are also in the hands of traditional sectors and oligarchies, which still possess
significant economic and political powers. The private sector can be socially and environmentally predatory,
driven by more aggressive market forces, and the benefits favour wealth concentration.
5.7 Scenario 4 – Dynamic and autonomous economic
development integrated to the international market with social
and environmental governance and BR-163
This scenario for the region may apply in a context where:
• The international economy has high growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities is
strong, thus boosting the national and regional economies. The economy is an autonomous and diversified
one, with significant domestic incentives to agro-exporting sectors and distinct sectors integrated into the
domestic and global economies. Economic effects are more intense and de-concentrated.
• The national and local public authorities have been strengthened in their ability to pursue public
policies.
In this context, the public authorities are the drivers of economic efforts in both traditional agro-exporting
sectors and new thriving sectors, fostering technical development and sustainable production practices.
Dynamic effects for regional and local development, with income and employment creation, promote cycles
of international investment and economic growth.
This scenario has to do with a plausible success situation of current government efforts to push forward
social and environmental norms, regulation and incentives, as well as to increase engagement of the civil
society. The main economic engine is a booming international market, with high demand and international
prices for commodities and, therefore, deforestation pressure from the agro-exporting sector. By coupling
economic expansion to credit policies and incentive policies for job creation and local income, as well
as encouraging social and environmental practices that are more accurate and modern, a higher level of
regional and local economic development more integrated to the national and international economies
and yet more autonomous and less dependent is the result. In other words, this scenario comes closer to
sustainable development than ever before (see Table 11).
48
Integrated assessment and scenarios
Table 11: Scenario 4 indicators
Soybean and Agribusiness
3 High activity rate: high prices, high gains, high investments
3 A booming status, with its effects being channeled to economic and social
modernization through more contemporary and sustainable sectors,
and through public policies by the government.
Local production activities
3 Efforts to disperse land and traditional oligarchies crops
3 Family small production more integrated and supported
3 Greater degree of technology adoption
3 New production activities, with mode added values to production
Poverty
3 Medium
Interaction of agribusiness
3 Reduced local conservative alliance with traditional industries and oligarchies
with all other sectors 3 Work relations that are less precarious and more formal, with a more substantial
volume of jobs.
3 Increased commitment towards mitigating poverty and improving life standards
3 Increased dialog between the sector and the civil society
Public Policy
3 Strengthened, progressive and universalizing
3 Both urgent and structural mitigating actions
3 More vigorous public investments that focus on the needs of the most thriving sectors and the needs of social development.
3 Influence from the agro-exporting sector is more modern and proactive
3 Enhanced social participation and control - more proactive ones and with new
Environmental impact
methods of introduction
3 Minor – despite significant land occupation pressure, there is more public control of
this process and discouragement of illegal actions, as well as increased adoption
of technologies and practices that are more sustainable by industrial sectors.
Encouragement to 3 Major
sustainability
Increased dissemination of income and job opportunities is expected, with an emphasis on growth in Pará
and Amazonas, due to incremental change in the number of industrial and services companies. Income levels
of households are increased, thus allowing best use of social programmes for income distribution.
As a result of greater tax revenues and public spending capacity, along with an economic boom, new public
infrastructure encourages the establishment of industrial plants and leads the area of influence to enjoy an
increased share in Municipalities Participation Fund.
Like in Scenario 2, there is better distribution of benefits here, with strong governance and furthering of
endogenous conditions for economic and social development, as well as a coordinated environmental
management policy at local, state and central levels of government.
Income and job generation at local level, and a better allocation of income, derive not only from endogenously
generated gains, but also from major inflows from international markets. The opportunities of an economy
based on production chains of a diversified mix of products generate public policies that are able to improve the
status of schooling, science and technology in order to expand fundamental requirements for development.
49
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Under this scenario, the paving works of BR-163 no longer are an undertaking of a sector-specific nature and
become a major axis of integration for the country, connecting the Amazon that preserves its features and
also modernizes itself to sectors of sustainable production. More wealth goes around the various segments
of the economy and society, and the private sector provides dynamic effects in both the economy and also
environment and social aspects.
5.8 Further evaluation of scenarios
Despite all four scenarios being possible (and therefore they all have to be considered), they are not, however,
equally likely. Besides their different probabilities of occurrence, different scenarios could be more likely in
different sub-regions. The conditions for scenario occurrence are discussed here.
Low economic development and weak presence of the State and public policies are characteristics of the
Amazon region. Scenario 1 corresponds to this historical model. Although these features still dominate in
large portions in Amazon regions, they are less likely with BR-163. The region will become the focus of
government attention and investments, both private and public. Scenario 1 will only occur with a serious
economic or State crisis leading to regression and stagnation. Many parts of Central Meso-region recognize
this model.
Scenario 2 is marked by some market forces and more strengthened State intervention. This scenario is more
likely than Scenario 1, since State intervention has been growing for years to foster local development in the
region. Scenario 2 is realistic, as long as: (a) large portions of BR-163 area of influence (especially Central
and North Meso-regions) continue to experience weak economic dynamism, compared to Mato Grosso; and
(b) an international and/or national economic slowdown or crisis occurs. Scenario 2 seems to be the most
likely to happen, for even in Mato Grosso weak economic diversity makes the local economy vulnerable to
international economy oscillations and shocks.
The slow-down in the soybean international market, over the last two years, already shows this possibility.
Thus, a breakdown in economic dynamism may even lead soybean agribusiness to lose importance and
reduce momentum for road paving.
Scenario 3 is also very likely. Its characteristics correspond to the process observed in the north of Mato
Grosso over the past 15 years up to 2003. The 1990s were when the world took big steps towards globalization.
It was the beginning boom of a cycle, which may or may not continue at the same rates. If State public power
is restricted compared to the power of the markets, Scenario 3 shall be the most likely. This means a strong
economic advance, reproducing the process in the north of Mato Grosso, but simultaneous failure to control
social and environmental undesirable effects and hence implying the failure of BR-163 Plan.
Scenario 4 is seen as the most desirable situation to be achieved. While Scenario 1 corresponds to the historical
characteristics of the region, and Scenarios 2 and 3 correspond much more to contemporary realities, Scenario
4 corresponds to a situation of possibility. The realism of this possibility is based, firstly, on the “maturing”
of regional economic behavior in face of the national and international economy. Secondly, Scenario 4 uses
more effective presence of the State currently yet unobserved. The current process of economic stabilization
under way is succeeding after all.
In this scenario, promoting family-based agriculture, feed security, technology development and production
diversification shall be emphasized. Scenario 4 creates a situation in which soybeans are still a dynamic
segment, but not at the expense of diversification and family-based agriculture, nor do soybeans stimulate
disordered and predatory land occupation. The coexistence among soybeans and other elements of a diversified
50
Integrated assessment and scenarios
economy makes, on one hand, a different social infrastructure and also provides a “protection net” to the
local economy, with less exposure and vulnerability to foreign markets oscillations and vicissitudes.
For these reasons, the final recommendations in this study shall assume Scenario 4 as its main objective.
5.9 Integrated impacts of environmental and social issues
At this stage of the assessment, considering the insufficiency of quantitative information, qualitative surveys
help to present an integrated view of future options. In Table 12 below, increasing scale means rising intensity
of the variable, and does not represent a judgment whether it is “better” or “worse”, since it is not dependent
on the variable being “good” or “bad”.
The (+) signs denote variables deemed as “desirable” (e.g. income, health), so the bigger the number of
(+), the “better” the situation. In contrast, the (–) signs denotes a variable deemed as “undesirable” (e.g.
deforestation, poverty), so the bigger the number of (–), the “worse” the situation. Intensity of neutral
indicators is depicted by number of (*) sign.
Table 12: Synthesis matrix of scenarios
Variables Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Indicators Units
Scenario 1
Low dynamism Low dynamism
High dynamism
High dynamism
and low and high
and low
and high
governance
governance
governance
governance
Environmental Deforestation hectares
– – –
––
– – – –
–
(direct and Pollution
–––
–
– – – –
––
indirect) Soil erosion –––
–
– – – –
–
Social
Employment
nº posts
+
++
++
++++
ppm
Scenario 2
Income
R$
+
++
+++
++++
Poverty
nº poor people
– – – –
– –
– – –
––
Education
IDH – E
+
++
++
+++
Malaria
Malaria index
– – –
–
– – – –
–
++++
****
****
Economic GDP
R$
+
++
+++
Soybeans
hectares
{*} (*) [* * *]
{*} (*) [* * *]
* * *
Cattle
herd growth
* * *
* *
* * * *
* * * *
rate
Timber
logs (m3)
* * * *
* *
Family hectares or
{* *} (*) [*]
{* * *} (* *) [* *] {* * *} (*) [* *]
Agriculture
production
***
{* * * *} (* *) [* *]
value
Key:
Positive effect
Negative effect
Economic indicator
Low
+
–
*
Medium
+ +
– –
* *
High
+ + +
– – –
* * *
Very High
+ + + +
– – – –
****
The following notations have been adopted for Meso-Regions:
{ } Northern Meso-Region
( ) Central Meso-Region
[ ] Southern Meso-Region
51
6. Policy recommendations
The recommendations of this integrated assessment project in the areas of policies and monitoring activities,
in line with “best case” circumstances of Scenario 4, are:
6.1 Structuring and articulation of policy
• Effective articulation between federal and state level programmes for the enforcement of BR-163 Plan’s
fundamental sustainable guidelines. State actions should be pursued in a coordinated fashion, with joint
goals and control mechanisms.
• Plans for the economic and social inclusion of the poorest, with adequate credit facilities and technical
assistance to overcome structural limitations and maintain economic viability in an era with more
competition from economic integration.
• Implement commitment and procedural routines to streamline all government actions towards meeting
the Plan’s targets.
6.2 Policy measures to reduce land grabbing, uncontrolled land
occupation, and deforestation
• Strengthen the functions, instruments and resources (human, financial, organizational, logistical, etc.) of
INCRA and other central agencies to fight illegal acts.
• Enhance the land use planning process with aid from BR-163 and speed up the Municipal Master Plan
for the region.
• Enhance measures to combat land grabbing in a consistent fashion, by streamlining court procedures
and removing squatters from lands, and also by combining law enforcement strategies with integrated
control.
• Enhance the Programme for Social and Economic Emancipation of INCRA’s settlement projects, with
land units established by planning of economic activities around integration with surrounding markets,
infrastructure, encouragement, education, and healthcare.
• Implementation of a special programme to strengthen family-based agriculture in BR-163’s area of
influence, with inter-institutional coordination for the proposals set forth in the BR-163 Plan and other
proposals as needed.
• Enhance control over areas already cleared for grain production.
53
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
• Strengthen surveillance and chemicals control by immediately enforcing removal of refuse.
• Enforce a Conduct Rectification Term (TAC) on growers who have damaged Permanent Protection Areas
(APPs) and Legal Reserves.
• Implement the Brazilian Forestry Service in Santarém, Itaituba and Novo Progresso.
• Improve IBAMA’s team and operational monitoring capacity, as well as other environmental planning
and control organisms.
• Amplify environmental protection areas, especially Conservation Units.
• Use socio-environmental criteria from INCRA’s definitions of productive land for agrarian reform
purposes.
6.3 Policies for development
• Create a scientific and technological development programme, with the Sustainable Development Centre
for the Amazon (NDSA) as benchmark, for the generation of knowledge and technologies that will add
value to agricultural, forest, animal, and fish products in the region.
• Establish four additional units of NDSA in the region at Itaituba, Novo Progresso, Altamira and Óbidos.
NDSA acts as an cross-institutional interface for Embrapa, INPA, UFRA, UFPA, FIEPA, and ADA in
Santarém, as facilities for research, education, extension, and business incubation focusing on agroforestry
economy in the area of BR-163 should be strengthened.
• Create a unit of the Amazon Biotechnology Center (CBA) with NDSA as a model with a view to
integrating the region’s bio-industry.
• Publish calls for bids (from the following Ministries: MCT/ MDIC/ MAPA/ MME) to fund rural research
and extension in order to build a technical and scientific development brigade that will foster and
disseminate diversified economic practices for the best use of natural resources in the region.
• Develop studies and inventories of economic resources in the legal forest reserves of family-based farmers
with public support for the establishment of Local Production Arrangements (APLs), in incubated nontimber forest products and conventional agricultural products (manioc, cocoa, black pepper, annatto,
fruits, etc.).
• Propose to MDIC/ SUFRAMA, MI/ BASA, MTE, and ADA/ SUDAM an integrated economic leverage
programme under the scope of BR-163, with credit facilities and assistance geared towards the fulfilment
of high value-added production targets, tax targets, and entrepreneurial opportunities.
• Develop and implement the internal infrastructure network (ports, airports, roads, warehouses, energy,
etc.) as required by the BR-163 Plan, but based on an implementation strategy that takes into consideration
all other investments and promotion of all economic and social actors.
• Foster special credit facilities, based on social, environmental and technological criteria, for various
aims, such as:
54
Policy recommendations
- Family-based agriculture and Agrarian reform projects such as establishing PRONAF credit
programme facilities.
- Addition of value and productive diversification to agribusiness products, such as poultry and swine
raising, pepper, cocoa, etc., under strict environmental and quality control.
- Technology intensive activities, aiming to break the cycle of extensive, predatory or illegal activities.
Specifically, two segments are paramount: (a) Timber, labelled and with sustainable management
plans, to enhance a higher professional and legalized standard in timber activity; and (b) Cattle raising,
performed to a higher professional and technologically efficient standard, making this activity less
impacting.
- Micro-enterprises, such as mini-industries.
- Environmentally sustainable activities and projects, including “green credit” lines, by official credit
organisms.
- Activities and projects for sustainable use and new products from biodiversity, extractive activities
and biotechnological developments.
• Differentiation in industrial taxes (IPI) for eco-labelled timber.
• Differentiation in land tenure taxes (ITR) according to environmental and social criteria.
• Differentiation in added value taxes (ICMS) in favour of sustainable agro-forestall products.
• Income tax reductions, by reason of investments in socio-environmental projects.
6.4 Policy measures for social inclusion and impacts from
uncontrolled growth of medium and small cities
• Map hot spots of poverty at local level, identify their fundamental relationships (chronic social exclusion
in education, healthcare, uncontrolled urbanization, environmental citizenship, etc.), and discuss local
emergency investment programmes in these areas.
• Concatenation of social policies currently in place (Zero Hunger, food allowance, social security, etc.),
structuring e government to support to those regions where the State’s presence is being consolidated.
• Consolidation of rural villages to absorb internal migratory movements and movements from other
states.
• Use of master plans as a management tool in the cities such as those affected by the Belo Monte
hydroelectric complex.
• Education at all levels heavily oriented towards generating technological innovation, thus making
competitive the economic activities based on natural resource use.
• Strengthening local organizations, with all relevant synergies, so that they can ensure specific social
and cultural conditions vis-à-vis the pressure exerted by homogenizing forces. This is a key measure
considering the strong presence of indigenous populations who intend to maintain their livelihoods or
make their own choices regarding external integration.
55
7. Final comments
The purpose of the project was to undertake the complex task of assessing an ongoing planning process, i.e.,
the BR-163 Plan. For the development plan, assessment required a detailed study of social, economic, and
environmental components, including a determination of the soybean sector.
Although numerous studies, scientific theses, qualified reports, statistical data, and even an IAG assessment
exist, the project has shed new light on the topic. Four scenarios were drawn from relevant indicators for
straightforward use by stakeholders in the Plan.
The participatory approach during the project, such as the national launch workshop and several meetings
to discuss its methodology and contents, provided a useful tool to major sectors in the Ministry of the
Environment, Ministry of National Integration, and others.
In addition, the 1st National Workshop provided valuable data for the Federal Government in terms of
expectations, elicitation of conflicts of interest, and identification of key actors from the society. Representatives
of social movements and NGOs were invited to discuss government decisions that were generally restricted
to cabinet discussions or lobbying actions.
Incorporation of governmental segments in the planning stage was not a new element for planners since
IWG assessment had already brought together 21 Ministries. To further this assessment, the IAP project
added the scenario approach, with key quantifiable indicators and an integrated analysis, establishing causal
relationships among selected variables that are essential for a more transparent and measurable planning
process, thus making it possible to conduct performance assessments for development policy measures.
The relevant scenarios for this study are based on strength of public policy, which will ensure sustainable
development and integration with the global market, leading to less deforestation and investments in social
and productive sectors, which in turn is to ensure greater social inclusion and increased job and income
creation.
On operational issues currently being discussed by planners in the GTI, some ideas could be put forward as
inputs to the debate:
• The need to institutionalize the planning process in order to incorporate it into the Pluriannual Plan
and its annual reviews. This Plan could help improve the country’s planning system by introducing an
integrated planning process that is replicable in other areas.
57
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
• The need to institutionalize managerial coordination bodies for the Plan in each Ministry and State
level governments, with oversight by the Casa Civil (Office of the Chief of Staff) and by the Ministry
of Planning. The MMA has set up a workgroup that will organize internal actions, perform executive
functions and coordinate with governmental peers.
• The priority according to strategic investment importance criteria or emergency status, is not a guarantee
of availability of funds for implementation. With a participatory process, the Plan will start to have real
meaning. Budgetary increments are sector-specific and each Ministry defines the priority level to be
assigned to the BR-163 Plan. For this reason, coordination with the various relevant Ministries and States
has to be placed at the level of executive secretariats and governors.
• The allocation of funds for investment in infrastructure and encouragement of sustainable and innovative
activities requires a trilateral negotiation among government, private sector, and development banks at
national level (BNDES and BASA) and international level (World Bank and IADB). The MMA experience
with pilot projects that can be replicated on a large scale and equally crucial is the management of the
Constitutional Funds to which the region under the Plan has the right to access.
• As far as social inclusion strategies are concerned, it is necessary to reinforce the current notion among
the government stakeholders of the Plan that the pursuit of citizenship by traditional populations in
the region cannot be at the expense of the integrity of their culture and inherited knowledge base, and
will not destroy their habitat, with which they have a strong interdependence relationship. This makes
the civilization process more complex than simply extending the traditional healthcare and education
system, and even the production system, to this population.
• On the Plan’s monitoring and assessment, the Executive Group for Plan Coordination could use a set of
economic, social and environmental indicators provided here to put together a reporting and monitoring
system centralized at the Office of the Chief of Staff or at the Ministry of Planning, with assistance from
researchers from the Applied Economic Research Institute (IPEA).
The Plan currently provides a list of objectives/goals and procedures, and seeks to achieve each one of them,
but the goals are not interconnected so as to make them interdependent and even mutually reinforcing.
To this end, the Plan should use a multi-tier approach to organize its goals and establish priority for some. It
is also important that the Plan be devised not as a straight-line sequence of parallel objectives to be achieved,
but as a “tree of possibilities”, where each path taken will depend on the success or failure of the previous
steps and inherently allows for different paths based on different contingencies.
IAP could be extremely valuable as it makes it possible to have a better understanding of underlying causality
relationships through alternative futures (scenarios). It is necessary, therefore, that the corresponding
mechanism be duly embedded into the Plan’s implementation approach. To this end, the Plan must be
designed in phases, and the results achieved in each phase must shape the profile of the next phase. The
relevant criteria must be made clear in advance during the planning process.
Procedures of this nature are key in a planning process such as that of the BR-163 Road, where contradictory
and conflicting impacts are so significant, and where, as a result of the discrepancy of interests and of the
correlation of forces, only one of the “parts” of the plan could move forward (such as the paving works) to
the detriment of other “parts” that are more difficult to achieve (such as social and environmental goals).
58
Final comments
Appendix I: Losers from existing BR-163 Plan
1. Indigenous communities
What is to be lost?
Territorial and cultural integrity. More energy expended in internal and external conflicts caused by the
disruption of lifestyles and invasion of their lands.
Why?
The market becomes a disruptive element, affects land security, and causes territorial and cultural
fragmentation.
How many?
There are 33 indigenously owned lands in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso.
Where?
Throughout the area of influence of BR-163, because the pressure over lands and culture will be unending.
2. Quilombolas
What is to be lost?
Peace and social interaction space, as their areas cannot be expanded, but may be invaded.
Why?
As the rims of their lands are used for intensive grain cropping with use of chemicals, they may suffer the
effects of environmental pollution. Quilombola may be attracted into the market.
How many?
According to Embrapa, there are 7,000 quilombolas in Oriximiná and 3,000 in Santarém.
Where?
Óbidos, Oriximiná and Santarém.
3. Family-based farmers established in legal areas What is to be lost?
Accessibility to land (growing costs and dwindling lands), space for social interaction since the areas involved
can no longer be expanded, loss of social, cultural and economic insertion/inclusion capacity. Competition
with agricultural products from agroindustrial areas.
Why?
This sector currently has the lowest average income among services, industry and agriculture activities. In
Pará, 47% of municipalities are still in rural areas. Though a minority, this sector is still representative in the
municipalities where the Transamazônica settlements were established, such as in the Low Amazon river
area and in the state of Amazonas. Subject to being chased away from the land and to social exclusion.
How many?
• Land owners located in areas that are far from neighboring areas, with poor performance of lands and
poor addition of value to products.
• The ones in the northern areas and areas where the economy of family-based farmers is restricted to manioc.
• Traditional communities along the Tapajós River.
59
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
•
Populations settled by Incra.
Where?
• Alongside the Transamazônica road where lands are already occupied and have low conversion costs.
• Throughout the entire northern region.
• Traditional communities along the Tapajós river.
• Settlement projects in the far north of Mato Grosso.
4. Cattle raisers who fail to incorporate technologies for feedlot cattle raising
What is to be lost?
Space free-roaming systems and competitiveness vis-à-vis high-tech sectors coming to the region.
Why?
By now the expanding area is subject to existing patterns of outdoor production.
How many?
Family-based cattle raisers (milk and/or beef production) and free-roaming beef cattle with low average
output per hectare. Where?
Throughout the entire area under the influence of BR-163, specifically those outside production chains in
far-off areas from the road.
5. Logging companies that fail to modernize despite regulation
What is to be lost?
Exploitation of non-regulated public land for raw materials. Losses from competition with more modern
companies that have more capital.
Why?
Legislation and enforcement/monitoring in a progressive advancement process.
Expansion of conservation units and protected areas, and homologation of indigenous lands.
How many?
Local companies and all informal agents involved in local chains of exporting sectors.
Where?
On the advanced frontier of new extraction areas incorporated in the northwest of Mato Grosso, in the northern
side of Amazonas and south of Amazonas, Verde para Sempre, Riozinho do Anfrísio and Tapajós/Arapiuns.
6. Low-skilled workers
What is to be lost?
Job opportunities for workers with low skill, who will migrate from other regions of the country.
Why?
The new economic development starts to require more skilled labor.
The local education system fails to meet the demands of the labor market.
As a result, external labor is attracted to settle in the region (migration).
60
Final comments
Where?
Across the entire region, with significant presence in areas with poor educational facilities. They are located
in the areas where traditional populations dwell.
7. Landless rural workers/ Leaseholders and squatters
What is to be lost?
Opportunity to fill spaces closer to the markets and to infrastructure.
Why?
Difficulties having access to land due to an increase in prices.
How many?
Squatters account for 3.2% of land (327,234 hectares) in Pará; 4.7% (39,853 hectares) in Amazonas and
1.4% (233,212 hectares) of Mato Grosso). Leaseholders, and they cover 399,793 hectares.
Where?
Leaseholders: In the most costly areas that are close to the road, considering the appreciation of the land
market. Squatters in farther-off areas who tend to shift from urban economic activities and become agrarian
reform clients in isolated settlements that are far from the market.
8. Local urban populations
What is to be lost?
Conditions for acquisition of urban lands and housing properties due to the appreciation of the real-estate
market, which is not matched by any increases in income.
• Increased number of slums.
• Worsening of public security.
• Worsening of public healthcare and sanitation.
• Poor urban infrastructure.
Why?
• Expansion in migrating movements from rural to urban areas (structural expansion) and from outside the
region.
• Agrarian-land instability.
• Poor response of local authorities to meet these new demands in urban areas.
• Express policies adopted by specific municipalities (especially in Mato Grosso) in the sense of not hosting
poor migrants.
How many?
Percentage of the population who tend to occupy urban areas - approx. 50% in the North Meso-region, 40%
in the Central Meso-region and 70% in the South Meso-region.
Where?
Throughout the area of influence of the road, since in strict terms are rural populations who migrate to the
cities without any money on them and without a clear professional occupation.
61
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Appendix II: Supporting maps
1. Municipalities in the BR-163 highway area of influence.
62
Final comments
2. Indigenous lands, Conservation Units, and INCRA’s Settlements in the BR-163 highway area of
influence.
63
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
3. Deforestation 1999-2003 in the BR-163 highway area of influence.
64
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
4.734
.625
.625
4.163
4.5772.9196.1568.1209.7499.7933.6778.3516.0357.5447.218
05.440
05
-
-
-
49
481635597201722733271
481.0621.0621.0601.1621.7172.3062.306
047111582
.164257
056926148514389175648
408231
-5751.8431.9152.2251.0052.648
0
0
Jamanxim
Total
0
Central Vale do
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
010
0
0
0
09
0
150
150
150
160
170
0150150150150170
0
0
Central
-
region -
Transamazônica
-
Médio Xingu
-
Meso-
-
-
Sub-Area
Meso
Pará 15.3135.21
.100
496928
-
.492140293
436566434
4.1345.1795.0735.5375.7606.9548.0469.734
4.4145.279
-
.144
4.5543.706
Mato1.5521.1721.4591.6802.0232.3381.9562.1922.6432.6362.9063.1213.818
-
Amazonas
4.290
077.644293
Grosso910
482
Oeste
Centro-3.8943.0883.2753.781
Norte
34.7611.1821.0835.7524.7335.7467.7757.1573.00106.1140.6212.2359.4
Brasil
11.589.6679.46310.6511.5411.7010.3511.5013.3113.0613.6913.9816.3718.5221.59
Sub-Area Meso e
Region, UF, Table A1: Soybean cultivated area (in hectare)
Appendix III: Supporting data
Final comments
65
66
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
0
400975
56
56
Source: IBGE (SIDRA – PAM)
Total – all
430.9
Total
46
324.1
46
324.1
0
1
50
150
620
55
25
350
6.510
09
430.9
0
Matogrossense5.4971.8606.4006.4406.6605653.5306
0
76
483.0
76
483.0
83
552.5
83
552.5
59
666.45
59
666.4
16
816.3
16
816.3
50
617.1
49
617.1
77
715.9
27
715.9
04
914.2
54
914.0
.187
09
965.8
89
965.1
949
1.145
744
1.145
07
43996074972879
175
1.319
000
1.319
.880
598
1.686
098
1.686
.249
.958
397
1.951
727
1.944
602
2.401
997
2.38
439
.923
476.6546.1659.7816.2604.6712.3899.3948.71.1201.2741.6261.8452.238
0
0
425.4322.2
0
44.1259.8498.80145.0
010360
Extremo Norte 12.4714.7216.4125.55
0
Matogrossense598676
05
South
0
region 0
5
0
Centro-Norte 0
Meso-
0
0
015015062050253506.4005
0
17.43
0
0
0150
Total
0
0
0
0
0100100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
062050253506.000
0
Oriental
1999
0
0
0150
0
Transamazônica
1998
Rio Amazonas (l +r)
0
0
0
1997
Total Calha do 16.97
0
0
0
1996
0
0
0
Amazonas (left)
1995
Calha do Rio
0
0
1994
0
0
Amazonas (right)
1993
Calha do Rio 16.00
0
region 1992
North
0
0
Baixo Tapajós
Meso-
1991
1990
Sub-Area Meso e
Region, UF, Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Vale do Jamanxim210.941226.375225.221260.000305.000369.600356.835345.082372.234391.950504.939528.066607.607691.443
(esquerda)
442.973
482.596501.720563.758593.396621.823
455.246
469.006
484.488506.179548.628566.339634.890707.450
49.00063.80052.78755.40060.47472.20084.70090.000100.262108.309
Centro-Norte Matogrossense613.873751.513752.7391.112.2501.248.3811.397.6341.635.1351.787.3731.775.2571.776.4761.939.8362.188.1632.395.6782.568.938
Total
Total All
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
Matogrossense
South
2.438.0653.097.5053.217.4263.717.1574.390.0665.102.4565.329.2745.720.4125.963.8626.360.8097.502.9428.670.7809.688.93410.844.184
1.350.9251.942.6691.994.3392.211.8802.723.9983.187.0913.562.3973.825.5183.948.9994.128.5064.608.7255.147.8825.746.0066.369.615
region Extremo Norte 737.0521.191.1561.241.6001.099.6301.475.6171.789.4571.927.2622.038.1452.173.7422.352.0302.668.8892.959.7193.350.3283.800.677
Meso-
494.432551.153738.079819.233961.942
Total829.455875.803920.0891.129.1691.203.9061.344.4491.120.4951.181.1221.234.5381.355.3431.487.0211.702.1681.863.8332.104.901
423.470
Transamazônica Oriental112.010118.210125.300239.150262.350329.780351.462
407.963
(d + e)
Total Calha do Rio Amazonas697.145736.448765.819849.319892.556950.869716.246717.759750.594788.711851.168874.089944.3381.034.650
Calha do Rio Amazonas
North(direita)
40.700
Calha do Rio Amazonas254.172253.852264.099285.561299.160329.046261.000248.753266.106282.532302.540307.750309.448327.200
region
257.685 279.033 302.998 376.108 462.162 570.916 646.382 713.772 780.325 876.960 1.407.1961.820.7302.079.0952.369.668
Baixo Tapajós20.30021.14528.970
Meso-
Total
413.234
Central
40.51260.70072.84091.050147.826216.699242.703291.243682.4071.030.0191.157.7071.264.991
Transamazônica 12.10714.69637.26555.40884.322110.266141.721151.991165.388193.767219.850262.645313.781
region
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Médio Xingu34.637 37.962
Meso-
regions Sub-Area1990
Meso-
Table A2: Effective bovine herd (head)
Final comments
67
68
Total Calha do 384.599 Rio Amazonas
(d + e)
Transamazônica 79.304 Oriental
Total
Centro-Norte 166.153 Matogrossense
Extremo Norte 84.654 Meso-region South
Total All
Total
Matogrossense
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
(esquerda)
0.40
0.72
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0.61
0.801.031.101.201.411.591.912.283.00
0.861.081.752.572.883.468.1012.2313.7415.01
1994
0.78
0.96
1.18
1.34
1.48
1.62
1.82
2.92
3.78 4.31
4.92
0.801.131.361.771.461.531.672.002.352.492.783.00
0.63
0.871.001.171.421.371.331.431.511.942.032.342.6
0.27
0.48
1992
4.52
2.26
2.41
2.69
2.24
2.36
2.47
2.71
2.97
3.40
3.73
5.39
7.75
2.51
4.21
4.435.145.346.236.959.3110.3312.13
7.95
2.61
8.82
3.01
10.86
3.56
12.71
4.14
14.20
4.32
15.25
4.64
15.75
4.84
16.46
5.16
18,38
6.09
20.53
7.03
22.91
7.86
8.80
25.40
44.90
4.536.697.518.419.8410.7610.6810.6911.6713.1714.4215.46
1.84
4.16
8.7114.0714.6712.9917.4321.1422.7724.0825.6827.7831.5334.9639.58
3.69
1.75
1.411.491.583.023.31
1.811.911.992.212.322.471.861.871.952.052.212.272.462.69
1.501.641.701.912.012.111.551.591.641.721.861.922.152.40
1.232.907 1.98
250.807 0.59
0.58
0.87
0.11
0.45
1991
2.822.822.943.173.323.662.902.762.963.143.363,423.443.64
0.56
500.018 1.66
Amazonas
Calha do Rio 294.625 Amazonas (direita
Calha do Rio 89.974
North
0.81
482.082 0.53
Baixo Tapajós36.115
Vale do Jamanxim259.980
Total
Meso-region Central
Transamazônica137.853 0.09
region
0.41
Médio Xingu84.249
Meso-
Total Area 1990
Sub-Area
Meso-region
Table A3: Bovine Herd Density (heads/km²) Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Central
1991
45.095
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
48.75039.00031.200
1998
40.560
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
46.64493.28883.959117.530117.530
Amazonas
(esquerda)
Total Calha do Rio 952.8591.038.926917.078995.0571.082.473963.273866.022891.235877.485862.339938.153918.335856.138783.319
Amazonas (d + e)
Transamazônica
Oriental
Total
Centro-Norte647.0541.364.2151.141.3531.193.4121.360.3851.519.5001.579.1321.070.211966.2341.010.5971.003.570978.3211.241.744992.174
Matogrossense
Extremo Norte 624.570856.740845.589838.2501.792.4241.823.3551.563.112960.291800.651653.002538.259
Matogrossense
Meso-region South
Source: IBGE (SIDRA)
Total
Calha do Rio 910.2451.013.310884.328943.2051.009.075896.686808.634797.640799.778774.398794.418762.262748.258713.769
Total All
Amazonas (direita)
Calha do Rio North
Baixo Tapajós21.80020.50022.50016.5009.30012.90014.14018.50018.10028.10039.40082.00084.600111.700
Meso-region 2.832.3853.806.9473.467.6043.283.2694.647.5994.701.7714.384.1113.448.5583.128.3883.206.1133.257.1783.468.4014.248.0473.837.363
1.271.6242.220.9551.986.9422.031.6623.152.8093.342.8553.142.2442.030.5021.766.8851.663.5991.541.8291.434.9302.134.1361.753.225
456.609892.392761.051
1.410.7591.412.8261.273.5781.077.5571.334.7831.203.0601.121.6621.232.3661.179.2461.173.4581.235.7431.347.2171.324.1561.286.608
436.100353.400334.00066.000243.010226.887241.500322.631283.661283.019258.190346.882383.418391.589
42.61425.61632.75051.85273.39866.58757.38893.59577.70787.941143.735156.073107.88069.550
150.002 173.166 207.084 174.050 160.007 155.856 120.205 185.690 182.257 369.056 479.606 686.254 789.755 797.530
Vale do Jamanxim115.244116.550150.00093.00058.00088.00065.800125.047109.378290.145350.034507.802562.534566.034
Total
41.06219.10615.40529.44332.31932.26736.28494.493109.691113.966
47.80071.70060.945
4.56811.5219.2849.350
Transamazônica Central
1990
Sub-Area
Médio Xingu30.190
Meso-region
Meso-region Table A4: Quantity of log produced (m3)
Final comments
69
70
Apuí
M
P
212.00 M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
(direita) Calha do Rio Amazonas (esquerda)
M
Calha do Rio Amazonas Extremo Norte Matogrossense
Matogrossense
Meso-region South
Centro-Norte 405.00 650.00 900.00 250.00 1,729.00 1,562.50 1,250.00
1,283.00 1,600.00 2,000.00 3,300.00 6,400.00 400.00 1,125.00 2,400.00 AVERAGE TOTAL
515.87 1,034.60 1,069.86 1,928.91 3,601.25
5,640.00
Tapurah 1,600.00 1,550.00 5,400.00
Sorriso/Lucas do Rio Verde10,000.00 Sinop5,400.00 Porto dos Gaúchos 1,004.00 1,674.00 3,600.00 Paranatinga
N. Ubiratã 2,300.00 6,400.00 N. Mutum2,800.00 10,000.00 1,400.00 2,800.00 5,000.00 1,004.00 1,674.00 N. Maringá
Juara
Feliz Natal
z50.00 1,950.00 1,283.00 1,800.00 212.00 Diamantino
N. Monte Verde
212.00 614.00 Guarantã/Matupá
Alta Floresta / Colíder
Average MR North 331.33 600.00 Monte Alegre/Alenquer/Oriximiná
Average MR South Source: Agrianual / Anualpec data
44.00 Santarém/Belterra/Transamazônica545.00 Parintins M
P
P
A
3,000.00 Rurópolis
Baixo Tapajós
Meso-region North
P
Cropland
549.00 1,283.00 Average MR Central 181.67 680.67 São Félix 304.00 N. Bandeirantes
Médio Xingu
Pastureland
210.00 Wood/Savannah
29.00 Municipality
A
Meso-region Central
Transamazônica Central
Table A5: Land prices (R$/ha) by types of land
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Table A6: Land price growth, by types of land
0.45
Meso-region Central
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Baixo Tapajós
Calha do Rio Amazonas (direita)
Calha do Rio Amazonas (esquerda)
Extremo Norte Matogrossense
Matogrossense
Meso-region South
Centro-Norte Meso-region North
Source: calculated from Agrianual / Anualpec data
P
M
P
P
A
P
M
Médio Xingu
A
Transamazônica Central
0.68
0.09
0.56
0.43
0.50
0.771.46
0.512.67
0.33
0.981.20
0.80
0.981.18
0.762.33
%
Cropland
4.712.461.40
Tapurah1.131.451.70
Sorriso/Lucas do Rio Verde1.67
Sinop1.70
Porto dos Gaúchos2.611.031.62
Paranatinga
N. Ubiratã1.301.33
N. Mutum1.311.67
N. Maringá1.491.631.67
Juara2.611.03
Feliz Natal1.133.40
Diamantino1.201.33
N. Monte Verde
Guarantã/Matupá
Alta Floresta / Colíder
Monte Alegre/Alenquer/Oriximiná
Santarém/Belterra/Transamazônica
Parintins
Rurópolis
São Félix2.901.02 N. Bandeirantes
0.20 %
Pastureland
0.512.67
%
Apuí
Wood/Savannah
Municipality
Final comments
71
Integrated assessment and planning in the context of the sustainable Amazon Plan
Appendix IV: Project participants and coordinators
Ministry of the Environment
Office for Sustainable Development Policies
Esplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco B, 9º andar
70068-900 - Brasília – DF
(61) 4009-1091
Office for the Coordination of the Amazônia
Esplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco B, 9º andar
70068-900 - Brasília – DF
(61) 4009-1430
sca@mma.gov.br
sds@mma.gov.br
www.mma.gov.br
United Nations Environment Programme
Brazil Office
SCN Qd.02 Bl.A Ed. Corporate Financial Center, sala 1101
70712-901 - Brasília – DF
(61) 3038-9233
unep.brazil@undp.org.br
www.pnuma.org/brasil
Project Coordination Committee:
Cassio Pereira – SCA/MMA
Flávia Lima – SCA/MMA
Júlio Miragaya – SDR/MI
Onice Dall´Oglio– SCA/MMA
Sandra Faillace – SDS/MMA
Shigeo Shiki – SDS/MMA (Coord.)
Cristina Montenegro – UNEP Brazil
Hussein Abaza – ETB/UNEP
Fulai Sheng – ETB/UNEP
Maria Cecília Piñeda – ETB/UNEP
Yana Dumaresq – UNEP Brazil
Equipe de Pesquisadores
Andréa Bolzon – CDS/UnB
Dóris Sayago – CDS/UnB
Gabriela Tunes da Silva – CDS/UnB
Magda Wehrmann – CDS/UnB
Marcel Bursztyn – CDS/UnB
Maurício César Delamaro – CDS/UnB
Maurício de Carvalho Amazonas – IE/UFU
Raimunda Monteiro - UFRA
Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior – Embrapa Amazônia Oriental
Roberto Bartholo – CDS/UnB
Vanessa Castro – CDS/UnB
72
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