US Presidential
Primary & Caucus System
Erin Vilardi
Creator of Vote, Run, LeadTM
civic engagement program
What are Primaries and Caucuses?
For the Party, By the Party
1.
Are Indirect Elections.
2.
Governed by individual Parties, not government,
and vary state-by-state.
3.
Can be Open or Closed to certain voters.
4.
The process to determine party nominees by
electing Delegates.
5.
Culminate in Conventions.
6.
Not found in the United States Constitution.
Primaries and Caucuses are both
Indirect Elections
Delegate
Step1:
Registered
Republican
Voter
Step 2:
Vote in
Primary
Step 3:
Delegate from my
county go to State
Convention!
Step 4:
Urges State Party to
vote for our
candidate by
electing State
Delegates.
State Party
Step 5:
State Delegates
Selected.
Step 6: State
Delegation Sent to
National
Convention.
Republican
National
Convention
Final Step:
Pledges Votes/
Delegates to
Candidate!
vs. Direct Election(1:1)
•My Vote tallied in
my district.
•Winner is Elected by
Popular Vote.
What is a Caucus?
Open Meeting & Forum.
For Party Faithful.
Candidates & surrogates
“campaign” for votes.
Highly participatory.
Leota Kelly of Wildwood votes yea to accept proposed procedural rules for the
Missouri caucus meeting on Saturday, March 17, 2012.
Photo by Christian Gooden
Rewards Retail Politics, face-
to-face campaigning and
solid organization.
So what is a Primary then?
Vote by Private Ballot Box
Direct vote for Delegate or
Candidate.
A statewide process of
selecting candidates and
delegates.
Most often closed or semi-
closed to insure party
values well-represented.
Who is allowed to vote in the primary?
Open Primary:
Any person registered or
unregistered with a party can vote
in one party’s primary.
Closed Primary:
Voter must be registered
with that party to vote in
that party’s primary only.
Why Do Primaries and Caucuses
Matter?
Local Engagement
Determine Party Platform at Local, State
and National level
Cultivate New Ideas
Increase # of registered party members
Primary and Caucus Rules
Delegate Allocation**
Republicans and Democrats have different rules.
Republicans Delegate Total 2,286 (August 27th)
Needs 1144 to win!
Democrats Delegate Total = upwards of 5,000
2012 Primary cycle 1ST Election to be affected by
Supreme Court ruling: Citizens United v. Federal
Election Commission.
Creates “Super PACs” with unrivaled resources!
The Republican Candidates
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
Republican Delegates by State
Proportional v. Winner Take All
Proportional Representation
Each candidate in race gets % of delegates = % of
votes.
Winner-Take-All
If any one candidate gets a simple majority of
votes, they receive 100% of delegates.
Threshold Test
Some party rules require candidates to receive at
least 15% of vote to be counted as viable.
Run Off
When no one candidates receives a majority, only
two highest vote getters compete.
Counties in United States
Conventions
Narrow the delegate selection process from local to state, then state
to national.
National Presidential Conventions now more formal and
ceremonious, less brokering of power.
States vote in rounds and pledege their votes to candidates.
Candidates negotiate delegates for issues in the party platform.
Brokered Convention: where one candidate does not get a majority
on 1st round of voting; voters free to change preference.
County
Caucuses
A,B,&C
County Caucuses
E,F,&G
County Caucus H,I,&J
After the Convnetions: Now what?
August to November:
Head to head race between the nominees
from both parties until the first Tuesday,
after the first Monday, in November.
November:
Popular vote tallied and reported.
December:
Electoral College elects the President,
representing each state.
First in the nation non-binding
caucus in 1,774 precincts.
Record high turnout in 2012.
99 Counties.
Thus 99 County Conventions.
2,500 Delegates go to District and
State Convention, June 16th.
28 Delegates from the District &
State to National Convention.
•3 RNC
•12 At Large
•13 CD (Congressional)
All 28 delegates go to National
Convention Unbound but usually
follow results!
Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is joined
by his wife Karen as he waves to supporters at his Iowa caucus victory party Tuesday,
Jan. 3, 2012, in Johnston, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
New Hampshire:
First in the Nation Primary
33 Republican
Candidates filed
to be on the
ballot in New
Hampshire!
Proportional
Representation
12 Delegates are
Bound to Primary
Results.
Semi-Open Voting:
Undeclared voters – those who
have registered to vote as neither a
Democrat nor Republican – are
free to vote in either party’s
primary. The voter must officially
join a party before casting a vote,
but he or she can switch their
affiliation back to “undeclared”
immediately following voting.
10% Threshold – new in 2012, NH
Republicans instituted a 10%
threshold.
This week! April 3rd
This week 3 states vote:
Wisconsin, DC and Maryland.
All 3 are Winner-Take-All!
State delegation
State
RNC AL
CD
Total
Contest type
Maryland
0
13
24
37
Primary (closed)
Washington, D.C.
3
16
0
19
Primary (closed)
Wisconsin
0
18
24
42
Primary (open)
What’
What’s at Stake in Wisconsin?
42 Delegates could put Santorum back in the
race.
But what if Wisconsin was set up like
proportional representation?
Let’s see! Group Simulation.
Winner Take All v. Proportional Representation
The Candidates
Let’
Let’s Caucus and Primary!!
Simulation: Wisconsin Primary
Winner Take All v. Proportional Representation
Rick Santorum
-Traditionally
Conservative
-- Catholic
-- Former
Senator
Mitt Romney
-Successful
Businessman
-- Mormon
--- Ran in 2008
Ron Paul
-Congressman
from Texas
-- Libertarian,
Independent views
Newt Gingrich
-Former
Congressman in
1990s.
-- Conservative
Primary Simulation: Guidelines
1) Each person votes for candidate of choice via secret
ballot.
2) Votes are tallied and candidates will receive same % of
delegates as they did votes.
• Threshold of 15%
3) Votes are tallied by Winner-Take-All
4) Review Differences – what is your preference?
Simulation 3: Caucus Simulation
Proportional Representation
1) Please select one volunteer to represent each candidate. You are running
to be a delegate who is pledged to your candidate.
2) Delegates proportions are bound by the # of votes received.
3) Everyone else is Republican voter.
4) Each volunteer delegate gets 1 minute to “stump” (make a speech) about
their candidate.
5) After the speech, voters will go around and hear from each candiate for 5
minutes.
6) After 5 minutes, voters must choose a candidate by lining up behind them.
7) We will have a 10% Threshold.
8) If your candidate does not get 10% of the votes, you can join together
with another candidate (to try to get to 10%) or abstain. If you abstain,
your vote is not counted.
Process Matters!
What difference did the process of voting
make?
Imagine if we had a more complex system:
that we only represented one county and
that we then had to conduct this process
several more times.
Do you prefer a primary or caucus system?
Winner-take-all or proportional
representation?
What do you think about our system?
Thank you!
Erin Vilardi
erin.vilardi@gmail.com
The Electoral College
•The Electors select the next
President of the United
States.
• The Popular Vote DOES NOT
elect the President.
• Delegates select the party’s
presidential nominee only.
•Governed by rules in the US
Constitution to mitigate
Majority Rule.
•Electors are chosen by State
and based on population size.
•Obliged to vote Winner-Take-
All in alignment with states
Popular Vote (except 2 states)
Types of Delegates
Pledged/ Bound
Legally and/or morally obligated to vote for stated candidate.
Unpledged / Unbound
Not legally pledged to vote for any one candidate. Can “vote their
conscience” at conventions after 1st round of voting.
At-Large Delegates
Part of state delegation but not elected by voters of the party. Can be
pledged or unpledged. Chosen by rules or party leadership.
Super Delegates
Often unpledged delegate whose status is attained by their standing
in the party. Present at National Conventions.
Going for Delegates: Ron Paul
Texas Republican
Congressman with a
fierce libertarian
streak, has polled low
nationally but picks
up delegates thanks
to scattered
successes in states,
like Missouri, using
the caucus system.
The AntiAnti-Romney: Rick Santorum
Catholic conservative and former Senator
from Pennsylvania, portrays himself as the
“true conservative”.
Wins in Iowa and in Southern States
pushed him ahead, but his delegate counts
remains far behind Romney.
39 page Delegate Strategy Memo by Red,
White and Blue PAC provides a long-shot
way to block Romney from 1144 delegates
needed.
Hoping for a brokered convention in which
delegates can “vote their conscience” in
second round voting.
The Other AntiAnti-Romney:
Newt Gingrich
With limited resources and
low numbers in the polls,
Newt Gingrich is looking less
and less “presidential”.
Pundits wondering where
will his delegates go?
For Romney – where he can
exchange them for power
positions and issues in the
platform – or to Santorum,
his more closely aligned
opponent on conservative
values.
Mitt Romney: Inevitable?
Private sector success
Moderate to conservative
leanings.
Former Governor of
Massachusetts.
Strongest organization and
largest $ resources to go toe-totoe with President Obama.
And no one can seem to catch
him ☺
ELECTION RESULTS VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS AND GOOGLE®
GOOGLE®
This interactive display lets you view AP election result data by state as well as countyby-county within each state; click on a state to go to the county level. Data includes
candidate vote totals as well as delegate count. (Slide or zoom map to show Alaska and
Hawaii.)
http://www.c-span.org/Politics/
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA MCCAIN 2008
The Missouri Mess
Two Step: Primary and Caucus
Primary awarded no delegates
Caucus rules unclear… ratify primary or “re-vote”
But the events in St. Charles County and elsewhere were
symptoms of a larger problem. The Republican Party
didn't establish any uniform statewide rules for running
the local county and township caucuses, and instead left
each individual caucus to make its own rules for how to
run the caucus and select delegates at the caucus meeting
(or, in the words of the party, "to decide on a procedure for
voting on delegates and alternatives").
Read
more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/opinion/guestcommentary-don-t-ditch-the-caucussystem/article_67ea4995-9638-5a77-8bc8d7327f2e503e.html#ixzz1qM62YELm
Primary and Caucus Rules:
Missouri 2 Step is a MisMis-Step
Each caucus could determine whether to elect
each delegate to the district and state
conventions individually or by slate.
Each caucus could impose requirements on
delegates such as binding those delegates to
a particular candidate or to the results of the
earlier primary.
While local control is sometimes desirable, in
this case, it led either to chaos or (worse) a
small, well-organized group railroading
everybody else.