Volume 29, Issue 12 November 4-10, 2014
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w w w . P L A Y B O O K . c o m 1 . 8 0 0 . P L A Y B O O K

KNOW
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et’s face it. Like the American Express card, living the good life at home has its rewards. There’s the comfort of your own bed. Knowing where your remote control is at all times. Lounging in comfort. The home-cooked meals. As
Dorothy said to Toto, “There’s no place like home.”
Athletes agree, too. Playing games at home as opposed to on the road almost always fi nds a rise in performance levels.
No argument here, with NFL home teams
– heading into last weekend – going
695-504-4 straight-up this decade. That represents a stodgy 57.9% winning edge for home teams.
The problem we have as players in backing home teams is – like prisoners incarcerated in state or federal institutions – they may have the benefi t of calling a jail cell home but it doesn’t get them the money. The same bunch of teams that wins over
57% of its games on the scoreboard has managed to win the money only 50.2% of the time. And because the warden (read: bookmaker) charges 10% juice for the privilege of making a play, it just doesn’t pay to back home favorites on the blind.
That’s especially true in non-division games, where home chalk has broken many a back, going 248-256-13 ATS since
2010, including 99-113-4 when hosting a losing foe. And if our non-division home favorite is a single-digit favorite when hosting a sub .500 opponent, they shrink up like a hemorrhoid on Preparation H, going 73-93-2 ATS.
That’s another case for another study, though, as our intention here is to look at how NFL teams fare in road games before returning to the comfy confi nes of home.
as 7-point chalk in this role, only to return home a 48-30 loser.
Note: the Pittsburgh Steelers will try to avoid the home-blues when they pack their bags to visit the New York Jets in this
Sunday.
FYI: There is a 0-16 ATS tightener inside this awesome angle. My PERFECT SYSTEM
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More specifi cally, we’re looking to put these teams in their most uncomfortable role after camping out at home for an extended period of time – namely three games in a row at home. That’s because teams in this role are 111-145-2 SU and
120-134-4 ATS in all games since 1980.
It’s no surprise to learn that John Sebastian and the Lovin’ Spoonful were also football fans. It suddenly puts a whole new spin on their classic tune titled above, doesn’t it?
Better yet, if we were to –
we’d have a dynamite winning angle, considering these teams are just 15-32-
1 ATS when hitting the highway after a month of home cooking.
Worse yet, dress these same guys up as non-division road chalk of more than 3 points off three straight home games and they disappear quicker than a Bill Clinton cigar on an intern, going 3-18 ATS . Last year, Philadelphia traveled to Minnesota
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THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY
This coach carries a grudge as well as any, going 21-12-2 ATS in his career when not forced to lay points in revenge games. Better yet, he zooms to 17-6-2 ATS in these affairs before Game Twelve of the season, including 5-1 ATS in division play. Who is this week’s grudge master?
For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 14.
Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on every
College & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to www.
PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE.
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(89%)
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ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog
F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up
All results are ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and PLAYBOOK.COM™ and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS
10-2 in 2nd of BB RG’s… 4-1 as conf RF 4 >pts
3-1 as conf HD’s… 0-3 aft NC State… 1-4 bef Pitt
1-4 as conf RF’s 7 < pts… 2-5 w/ conf revenge
1-3 Game Ten… 1-3 bef Okla St… 2-5 aft Texas Tech
1-5 Last Road Game… 3-10 as conf RF’s 7 < pts
6-1 as conf HD’s 7 < pts… 1-4 w/ conf revenge
2-6 w/ conf revenge… 3-7 vs conf off non-conf HG
3-0 bef Georgia… 7-2 as conf HF’s 14 < pts
0-5 as conf RF’s 10 < pts… 1-4 away w/ rest
SERIES: Host 4-1… 5-1 w/ rest… 5-1 w/ conf revenge
1-4 as RD’s 9 < pts… 2-7 as dogs vs conf revenge
7-2 as HF’s 10 < pts… 0-4 bef Tex Tech… 1-4 Game Nine
5-1-2 as conf RD’s 15 > pts… 4-11 in 2nd of BB RG’s
SERIES: Host 3-1… 6-1 as conf HF’s 20 > pts
4-0 as conf dogs 7 < pts… 12-1 w/ conf revenge
1-6 in 2nd of BB HG’s… 2-6 home vs conf revenge
SERIES: 3-0 L3… 4-1 away vs Pac 12… 1-9 aft Navy
0-3 Game Nine… 1-5 home vs > .500 non-conf opp Gm 4 >
4-1 as conf RF’s < 7 pts… 7-2 away vs conf revenge
3-1 home vs .750 > conf opp… 0-2-1 bef Stanford
9-1 as dogs vs conf revenge… 6-1 as RD’s 10 < pts
4-0 bef Kansas… 5-2 Game Nine… 0-3 as HF’s < 10 pts
BOX
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6-1 Away Four vs opp off SU win… 5-1 Away Four w/ rev
8-0 H vs .500 > w/ single rev… 12-2 Home Six favs.
6-3 ATS vs AFC South… 0-7 off non-div vs < .500 AFC
SERIES: 3-1 L4… 7-1 vs .500 > opp w/ double rev
SERIES: 4-1 L5… 5-1 L6 w/ single rev (1-0 TY)
1-6 Game Nine… 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS home vs AFC East
1-7 A vs non-div opp off DD SU win
SERIES: 6-1 L7 / 6-1 L7 H… 10-1 Home Five off div game
SERIES: 4-0 L4… 1-8 Away Five w/ rev
8-0 Pick or favs vs .500 > non-div opp w/ single rev
1-7 < .500 vs opp w/ single rev
8-1 Home Five favs… 16-3 w/ single rev vs non-div opp
1-6 Game Nine… 1-5 L6 vs opp w/ triple rev
7-1 Home Six in 2nd BB non-div games
8-1 Away Five dogs vs < .500 opp… 0-3 L3 SUATS Game 9
1-10 < .500 dogs 3 < or favs w/ single rev vs < .500 opp
4-0 L4 Game Nine… 1-5 vs div opp w/ quintuple rev
SERIES: 0-3 L3 H… 1-7 Home Four off non-div game
6-1 Away Five… 4-1 Game Nine
SERIES: 1-6 Home Five dogs 3 < or favs
0-5 Game Nine… 1-9 Away Five vs .500 > opp
0-12 if > .500 vs non-div opp w/ double rev
7-0 A off non-div w/ double rev vs .500 > opp (1-0 TY)
SERIES: 7-1 L8… 2-10 H Four favs 10 < pts vs opp w/ rev
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5-0 L5 Away Five… 1-6 L7 Game Ten
SERIES: 3-1 L4… 10-2 Home Five vs < .500 opp
A week of rest can be benefi cial or costly to college football teams this time of the season. Truth be known, it can fl at out be lethal for teams playing in Game Nine of the campaign when taking on an avenging foe.
According to our all-knowing database, rested teams who fi nd themselves favored in Game Nine conference battles have a tough time waking up, going just 37-47-1 ATS in this role since
1980. That’s not good news for Alabama, Boise State, Clemson,
Marshall, Michigan State and Northern Illinois this week.
Worse, send these same squads out on the road and they drop to 7-27-1 ATS . Everyone outlined above, with the exception of the Spartans, is forewarned.
Bring them in as favorites of less than 13 points and these same teams dip all the way down to 3-17-1 ATS . And when this group lines up against an opponent who managed six or more wins last season, they become a comatose 1-10-1 ATS .
If that’s not a wake-up call for Alabama and Northern Illinois , then nothing is!
Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!
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Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK Recommendation Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points Off The Opening Line
Like it or not, we’ll be on the attack with the MAC for the next few
Tuesdays and Wednesdays heading into Thanksgiving – and it all starts tonight with this Week Eleven opener in the Rubber City where the
Bee Gees should be bouncing higher than a pair of Double D’s on a trampoline as they can all but wrap up the East with a win over an
Akron squad that they’ve owned since 2007 ( 5-0 SUATS ). It’s a good thing that Mid-American Conference commissioner Jon Steinbrecher had a pre-arranged agreement with ESPN2 and ESPNU to showcase his league (i.e. $$$$) as no MAC teams will be close to a big bowl payday as in years past when Northern Illinois garnered national attention. It’s even better knowing that Tuesday and Wednesday MAC affairs have seen visiting teams go 41-31-3 ATS, including 17-8 ATS when off a SUATS loss – which, by the way, tightens to 8-0 ATS if the foe is off back-to-back
SU losses. Better yet, the money-burning Zips (1-6 ATS this season) are a favorite ‘leaking oil’ (0-3 ‘ITS’ last three), not a good sign against a
Bowling Green group that is 21-1 SU in their last 22 games when they win the stats. Once again, look for the ball to ‘bounce’ the visitor’s way tonight in Akron.
While we realize the Surgeon General has determined that getting involved with Kent could be dangerous to one’s health, we believe laying double digits with a Toledo team that is 1-6 ATS on the season and is allowing 450 yards per game could put a hurting on the old purse strings. Sure, the Rockets should stay unbeaten in league play following this trip to the conference basement but the story on how the West was won may be written next Tuesday when Matt Campbell’s crew visits
Northern Illinois. In the meantime, this preliminary bout favors the home team as the series host is 13-2 SU since 1983 and 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. Thus, if NCIS doesn’t fl oat your boat on the Tuesday
TV slate and you want to take a plunge, we suggest getting out the proverbial clothespin and applying it more fi rmly than ever as this anti-
Toledo play has us leaning towards a Golden Flashes’ squad that is 1-7
‘ITS’ on the season – and was held to 3 points recently at Miami-Ohio
– in this take it (gulp) or leave it tilt.
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With Northern Illinois still on the docket, the 4-5 Bobbies will likely need this one if they hope to go bowling for dollars for a fi fth straight season.
However, the Bulls – like the Bee Gees – are a Tuesday/Wednesday MAC visitor off a SUATS loss and they fall into that 17-8 ATS winning role.
And despite the 3-5 SU record, our MIDWEEK alerts us to the fact that
Buffalo is outstatting foes by an average of 22 YPG while Ohio has been outgained by 66 YPG this season. Hence, we’re not about to lay points with a Bobcats litter that has had its share of troubles in this matchup of late (0-3 ATS last three) and is 1-6 ATS in its last seven weekday frays. That leaves us running with a Bulls’ bunch that still has visions of hitting the alleys for a second straight campaign thanks to a favorable remaining schedule (Akron, Kent State, at UMass). With that, we say take what you can get tonight in Athens as the down year continues for
Frank Solich’s squad.
We’ve made it well known that the nationally-respected Huskies are the
‘Big Mac’ of this conference but our SMART BOX feels it’s the Gonads who should garner the attention on this hump day. That’s because the sled dogs fi nd themselves in the worst of the Sagacious Square – a ‘lazy’
1-10-1 ATS scenario that has claimed many an unsuspecting victim. Sure, the Huskies arrive with a tough 10-4 SUATS mark in away games off a previous away encounter (including a bully-like 7-0 SUATS in MAC play) but the Cardinals counter with a 10-5 SUATS record at home during the week, including 3-0 ATS off a SU dog win. Add HC Pete Lembo’s 15-8 ATS log when taking points to the mix, including 3-0 ATS off back-to-back
SUATS wins, and you can see why it wouldn’t be ‘Smart’ to super-size on this Wednesday with the infl ated, 6-2 road favorites – who by their own standards are having an off year. Like with Buffalo, points are optional as NIU is handed a multiple conference loss for the fi rst time in fi ve years.
Yes, we have a better shot of outsmarting an Asian at baccarat than
Wake Forest has of upending 19th-ranked (AP Poll) Clemson, but our
SMART BOX warns us to avoid the suddenly toothless Tigers (0-3 ATS last three) tonight in Winston-Salem. We were a bit leery at fi rst as Clemson has held its last four foes to season-low yardage but the deeper we dug, the more we ‘Woke’ up. For starters, the Tigers are 3-9 ATS as road chalk of more than 14 points and 3-7 ATS away off three straight ATS losses.
More importantly, since SR QB Cole Stoudt (fabulous freshman Deshaun
Watson is still listed as doubtful with a broken index fi nger) has stepped back into the starting lineup two games ago, Dabo Swinney’s squad has yet to score over 17 points. And considering the opening line is almost a full touchdown higher, you won’t fi nd us laying that kind of lumber on the road. Not with the Demon Deacons more than holding their own in this matchup (15-8-1 ATS last 24) while suffering just one loss at home in this series since 1980 by more than today’s posted number! And while getting closest to nine may be not be our game of choice, poker is – and the Best of the Black Book reminds us that this third straight homer for the Deacons has them holding ‘ Trips to Win ’ (conference home dogs of 3 or more points off back-to-back SU home losses are 58-32 ATS) which tightens to 13-2-1 ATS when taking 18 or more points. Thus, we don’t mind busting on 22 tonight at BB&T Field. An easy take.
NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.
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of ATS losses are 75-27-1 ATS since 1990 and we love the fact that the
Hoosiers fi nally got the 800-pound gorilla off their back with a 44-24 win over the Lions last year in this building – their fi rst in 17 tries. So the question now becomes, can HC James Franklin rediscover the electricity that got the Lions off to their fast start or will they be fl ying a kite when the Spartans leave Beaver Stadium the Saturday after Thanksgiving? We say the latter… a must take.
It may be easier deciphering Egyptian hieroglyphics than sorting out the American Athletic Conference (fi ve teams are tied atop at 3-1, including Memphis) but we do know that the Tigers look to have the easiest path to the crown as their fi nal four games are against lower echelon AAC foes. We also know that Temple’s win against previously unbeaten East Carolina (its fi rst over a ranked opponent since 1998) can’t be considered legit as the Owls were outstatted, 432-135, in the
10-point victory. In fact, the 5-3 nocturnal ones have been asleep for most of the season in terms of yardage as they’re losing the stat battle by an average of 53 YPG. Not so for Memphis as the Tigers are actually outplaying their 5-3 SU record, outgaining opponents by 96 YPG (6-2
‘ITS’). That puts us on full ‘Alert’ and may even have us hanging in the
Tigers’ lair come ‘Midweek.’ As for now – despite their unfamiliar role as road chalk – we say lay it you pay it as the Owls fall to a not-so-wise
1-7 SUATS as home dogs versus a foe with revenge. Now what was so hard about that?
The MWC Mountain division is also crowded at the top as three teams sit currently tied with just one blemish on the conference card. And despite quarterback woes that now fi nds fourth-stringer FR Kent Myers under center, Utah State is one of them! Don’t expect this game of musical signal-callers to skip a beat in Laramie as the Cowboys arrive off a stunning 45-17 win as 16-point dogs in Fresno, outyarding the Bulldogs,
696-318. That probably won’t be the case tonight as the Aggies own a
7-2 ‘In The Stats’ advantage this season. The outright win will be even harder as our well-oiled machine has uncovered this little ditty: home dogs off a SU win as an underdog of more than 14 points are 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS since 2010. So plop back in your chair and kick up the feet.
Best of all, there’s no need to get up and face the music as Utah State improves to 4-0 ATS in this series since 2007. Lay it AND play it.
Crazy season for the Lions, who have gone from home for the holidays to post-season locks to bowl wannabes. Huh? Let us explain. Before the season started, Penn State was ineligible for post-season play but the
NCAA removed the bowl ban in early September and a quick 4-0 start had State College clamoring for a New Year’s Day bowl. However, four straight losses later and a season-ender with Michigan State now leaves the Nits with little margin for error. The problem has been an offense that has failed to gain 270 yards in any of those four losses. Indiana’s offense has also fallen on hard times of late (56 total points in the last three games) but it’s been the 97th-rated stop-unit that has been the culprit much of the season – and now has the 3-5 Hoosiers on the outside of the bowl picture looking in. And with Ohio State still on the docket, this becomes mandatory if they hope to become bowl eligible.
Our database loves the fact that 17 returning-starter dogs off a pair
Heading into the ‘Cocktail Party’, the Bulldogs led the nation in fewest turnovers allowed with just four, and with QB Hutson Mason protecting the football, Georgia looked like they were coasting to an SEC East title at 6-1. But while Mark Richt’s team turned the ball over just once against the Gators last Saturday, they committed the cardinal sin of allowing an anemic Florida offense to explode for
418 yards on the ground, with not just one, but two RB’s running for over 190 yards each. Now the Dawgs take on the Wildcats in a sandwich game with an Auburn revenger looming next week.
In previous years, you might say, “it’s only Kentucky”, but in 2014
Mark Stoops has this team believing – and with one more win, they go bowling for the fi rst time in four years. The deep-digging database supplies us with plenty of numbers to side with the Cats:
Georgia is 1-8 ATS with revenge the last two years, 1-6 ATS in SEC play on the road when coming off a SU loss, 1-5 ATS as doubledigit road favorites, and fi nally, with a hangover from the cocktail party ringing in their ears, the Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS as chalk of a
TD or more versus .444 or better opposition. Looking for more?
Kentucky has covered three of the last four meetings in this series
– and that’s when they weren’t any good! Now they’re winning the stats battle by 37 YPG this season after losing the same by 86
YPG last year. There’s no longer talk of winning a division title in
Lexington this season, but the improvement is defi nitely there as evidenced by the positive 123 YPG net differential from last year’s squad. Lastly, we told you about Georgia’s bizarre scheduling this year, and now they are road-weary with this game being their 4th straight away for the hedges. And if that’s not enough, you can fi nd The Clincher in this week’s ‘TOUGHER THAN THE REST’
Awesome Angle on page 2.
First-year mentor Bill Clark has done a great job turning this UAB team completely around (5-20 in the previous 25 games before his arrival).
The Blazers are now in quest of a bowl-eligible 6th win here today after surviving a three-touchdown, 4th quarter comeback by FAU in Boca last
Saturday that saw UAB kick the game-winning FG with 3 seconds to play after totally dominating the fi rst half. This week looks like a good spot for them as they are 11-3-1 ATS as home dogs versus .600 or greater foes. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz’ Bulldogs are coming off a surprising 59-10 shellacking of Western Kentucky for their fourth straight win and are now cruising atop the CUSA West division with a 5-0 conference mark.
However, Tech is just 1-5 ATS in games after scoring 40 or more points, including 0-3 ATS in the role of favorite. In fact, they have rung the register in seven of their nine games this season, with the only two spread losses coming after they scored 42 or more. Skippy’s QB Cody
Sokol is having a great year with 22 TD passes versus just 9 interceptions, but since the Bulldogs have a tendency to come back to earth after a huge performance, we’ll look for them to get out of Birmingham by the skin of their teeth.
Don’t look now but the Hawkeyes are quietly making their move. With four wins in their last fi ve games, Kirk’s kids are just a half-game back of
Big 10 West division leader Nebraska, and their only losses this season were by a fi eld goal to Iowa State and a touchdown to Maryland.
In addition, the Hawkeyes have held two of their last four foes to season-low yards. But speaking of division leaders, it was Minnesota that found themselves with a share of the top honors until the ‘phonybaloney rodents’ (our description of the Gophers from Playbook Issue
9) who choked at Illinois and are now just 3-5 ITS. They were upset by a
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mediocre Illini team, thanks to a slow start by QB Mitch Leidner and a disastrous fi nish by RB David Cobb. After scoring two 3rd-quarter TD’s to put Minnesota back in front in that game, Cobb got the football ripped out of his hands deep in Gopher territory in the 4th quarter and
V’Angelo Bentley ran it back for what would prove to be the gamewinning score for the Illini. Still, Jerry Kill’s squad now stands at 6-2 overall, and as a conference home dog playing with rest and revenge, this game should go right down to the wire. But since Iowa owns the series in recent years, going 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, we’ll stay safely on the sidelines for this one.
Coming off that 48-7 spanking in Iowa City last weekend, Northwestern now needs to win three of its fi nal four games to go bowling – and with a visit to Notre Dame coming up next week, this game becomes a high priority for the Wildcats. The problem is they fi t smack dab into the
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3 (FYI: they were in the same spot last year and failed miserably as 3-point chalk in this same game), and the pressure to win is not something the Purple Cats have been able to handle lately. We compare the Wildcats to Lolo Jones: leading the fi eld in the fi rst third of the race, hitting hurdles once fatigue sets in and ending up down on the track short of the fi nish line, sobbing uncontrollably (as evidenced by their 2-10 SU mark after Game Four in the last two seasons). As for Michigan, following a convincing win over Indiana, the celebration for Brady Hoke getting the monkey off his back (much like Will Muschamp) continues in Ann Arbor. Bailing out the big guy has come courtesy of his Top 10 ranked defense, holding seven of their nine opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yards this year. The feeling here is he doubles things up away from home against a foe they’ve worn out (30-4 SU since 1966) like a comfortable old pair of shoes. UM has already targeted NW athletic director Jim Phillips to replace the resigned Dave Brandon, so here’s hoping that Phillips wears the appropriately-colored tie in the press box despite some undercover negotiations at halftime.
A Homecoming dog looking to cement their bowl eligibility with a win here today is a situation that piques our interest. And if their effort in the stats on the fi eld weren’t so shallow, we’d likely ride this home dog here. Unfortunately, we just can’t trust a team whose last stat win was seven weeks ago versus Presbyterian. However, we will take a hard look at the Yellow Jackets, who refused to fold their wings following back-to-back losses to Duke and UNC and now fi nd themselves one loss behind the Blue Devils in the Coastal division on the heels of impressive wins over Pitt and Virginia. In fact, Tech’s superb 8-1 ITS log overshadows the Wolfpack’s 3-6 ATS mark, an effort that includes fi ve straight ATS setbacks. The problem lies in the schedule for the Ramblin’ Wreck, however, as season-ending revengers with Clemson and Georgia await.
In addition, Georgia Tech owns a 3-9 SUATS record in games versus foes off a SU underdog win, including 1-6 SUATS away. The host has had little success in this series as home teams are 0-4-1 ATS since 2003. We’ll take the prudent approach and punt this one away.
As the late, great Harry Carey would have said it, “Holy cow!” is the expression we used when our well-oiled machine informed us that the overland juggernauts from Madison now own the best defense in the land. As a result, the Badgers are winning games by an average of 223
YPG. But before you get too excited, a look ahead for Wisconsin to a
Nebraska revenger in what should be at least a battle for the top spot in the Big 10 West division keeps this on hold. The Badgers have recorded consecutive blowouts over Maryland and Rutgers by a combined score of 89-7, and while the fact that they have covered eight straight games in this series (fi ve straight in West Lafayette) would suggest the Boilermakers complete the trifecta, we say ‘hold your horses’.
Purdue brings a 4-game ATS win skein into this contest after holding the Cornhuskers to a season-low 297 yards last week, and the Boilers are still mathematically alive for a bowl spot, needing wins here and against Northwestern and Illinois to accomplish the feat. However, their rotten series history quickly dispels that notion. Pass.
Consecutive wins by the Mountaineers have cast a better light on their fi rst season of FBS play, improving their SU record to 3-5 on the campaign. However, before you start giving Scott Satterfi eld’s team a standing ovation, consider that the victories were over two 1-8 squads
(Georgia State and Troy) and FCS foe Campbell. Still, they have averaged
638 YPG in their last three contests, and while we again need to temper our enthusiasm when looking at the level of opposition, it at least deserves a pat on the back for Satterfi eld. Now the boys from Boone play one of the upper tier Sun Belt units over the past couple of seasons in Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks are in quest of their fi rst road win of the season (0-4 SU) but the current state of affairs is not in their favor as they ride a 4-game losing streak into this game. Not even a solid effort last week in a 5-point loss to Texas A&M with the Warhawks getting 32 points would encourage us to stand in the betting line for this one (we did that enough last weekend for the Breeders’ Cup). With that being said, this is another game we’ll avoid like a visit to Liberia.
Last Saturday’s OT win over Pitt was a perfect example of David
Cutcliffe’s team fi nding a way to pick up the ‘W’ each week. They are now 7-1 this season with a very under-the-radar SU record of 17-3 since mid-September of last year (only losses to teams with big-name QB’s:
Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel and Brad Kayaa... okay, forget that last one). Now with three home games after this tiff to round out the regular season, another big reputation bowl game could be in the offi ng. However, as is the custom here at PLAYBOOK, a team that is getting too many accolades is a target for us to take down a notch.
In fact, while the ATS numbers are solid (5-2), the ITS ones are not as the Blue Devils have been outyarded in each of their last four games, making them a ‘leaking oil’ favorite here – and we want none of that!
Instead, we’ll look to take points with the Carrier Domers, who have covered three of the last four games in the role of conference home underdog, and have posted a 6-1 ATS record in their Last Home Game versus ACC opponents coming off back-to-back SU wins. Syracuse has suffered a couple of tough defeats the past two weekends to Clemson and NC State, so we’ll look for them to bounce back with a big win here at home. Remember, Orange is the new black when it comes to padding your bankroll this weekend.
With Gator fans on ‘Muschamp Countdown’ and Georgia followers ready to party deep into the Jacksonville night after their Dawgs took another step down the red carpet toward the SEC East title, no one – and we mean no one – could have predicted what happened at last week’s
‘World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’. Better than the biggest Tums one could ever swallow, Florida HC Will Muschamp silenced his legion of critics (for another week, at least) with one of the most dominating
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wins over Georgia in series history. With the Gators fi nally realizing their weak link was at quarterback, UF’s offense turned to a ground-andpound attack that ripped the Bulldogs for 418 rushing yards, averaging an incredible 7 yards per rush. That approach might work here, too – but we’re not about to lay teens with a team that was literally starved for a win before last week’s upset as a double-digit underdog. Then again, we want no piece of the 3-6 Commies, who just picked up their fi rst ‘In The Stats’ win this season with last Saturday’s 14-point whipping of Old Dominion. Amazingly, Vanderbilt has somehow managed to ring the register in fi ve consecutive lined games following a dreadful 0-3 ATS start. But even with Vandy’s recent pointspread success – and the fact that this number appears to be a huge overreaction to Florida’s win last week – we think the best course of action is to back off and determine which of these two teams (if either) has actually turned the corner on a rotten season. Though the series host is 0-6 ATS of late and the Gators owe Vandy a serious chomping after last year’s 34-17 loss at the Swamp, resist temptation and don’t take the bait.
Watching last week’s game against Florida State with a major wager on the home-standing Cards was a lot like viewing a ‘Halloween’ fi lm: the hero (Louisville) not only impaled the murderous incarnation of evil
(Florida State) with a fi ve-foot piece of rebar, he also drop-kicked him off the roof of a 3-story building to land in a shattered heap on the ground below. But before the hero can savor this accomplishment, the monster somehow returns to life, resumes the chase and hacks our hero to death with a disturbingly large knife. Yes, it was really that bad as the Cardinals broke our heart (and our wallet) with a give-away loss to the defending champion Seminoles last Thursday, blowing a 21-0 lead en route to an 11-point loss. So do we dare get back in the ring with a reeling Louisville squad laying points on the highway or do we hop on a resurgent BC team returning to Chestnut Hill after posting a pair of hard-fought ACC road wins? Would you believe neither? Super tough call here as both teams bring good ATS numbers into this battle. The
Eagles have cashed in three of the last four series meetings and also own a sweet 4-1 ATS mark in their last fi ve appearances as conference dogs. Meanwhile, Louie shows a strong bounce-back tendency by going
5-1 ATS off a double-digit SU home loss and – despite the failure against
FSU – still boasts a dominating log versus ACC foes. Both teams are also taking care of business on the playing fi eld as BC is winning this season’s yardage battles by +94 YPG compared to the Cards’ +102 net YPG edge.
Watch this line in case it climbs from the UL -3 opener because the
Cardinals are an awful 1-7 ATS of late as conference road chalk of 4 or more points. Still, our best advice to you is to leave this one alone.
It’s that time of year again… when the Iowa State brain trust decides whether or not to can HC Paul Rhoads (5-15 SU last 20 games, including
1-12 in Big 12 play) and when Kansas fans lower another lost season into the ground and start gearing up for KU basketball (showdown with Kentucky at the Champions Classic set for November 18th). The 2-6
Cyclones – who are looking more like a harmless breeze these days – are staring straight down the barrel of a 5th straight losing season, and we fi nd it hard to lay points with a team in this condition, especially one that’s just 2-5 ATS as road chalk dating back to 2004 – and 11-35 SU away, as well! But while branded with an equally shameful 2-6 record,
Kansas brings some surprisingly good numbers against mediocre foes into today’s fray, going 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS home versus sub .500 opponents, including 6-1 SUATS in conference games. While interim head coach Clint Bowen (0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS since replacing Charlie
Weis) continues to defl ect questions about his future role with the
Jayhawks, he and every KU fan in the Sunfl ower State knows THIS is their team’s only real shot at bagging another win before the end of the 2014 season. That grim reality, and big-time revenge for a 34-0 beatdown at Ames last year, should be enough to do the trick today as the Jayhawks ‘improve’ to 3-45 SU in their last 48 conference games.
Party in Lawrence!
Interesting matchup between 5-3 Sun Belt opponents looking to qualify for postseason play. And while we’ll be concerned with who’s going to cover the spread, Arkansas State HC Blake Anderson has bigger fi sh to fry… like fi nishing the season on big-time roll, posting the Red Wolves’ third consecutive 10-win season, and becoming the fourth straight head coach in as many years to go one-and-done at ASU before bolting to a
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higher-profi le job and a bigger paycheck. Considering Anderson’s three remaining foes after today currently own a combined 10-15 SU mark for the season – and that the Wolves scored 20 unanswered points to close out a 44-28 win over Idaho last week, while covering the game by just a half-point – we’re not about to say ‘never’. Realistically, though, Arky
State was actually outyarded by the pitiful Vandals, managing to secure the win only after Idaho gift-wrapped a whopping eight turnovers to ASU. However, with visiting South Alabama averaging just one TO per game in 2014, don’t look for Santa to pay a visit to Jonesboro this weekend. The FBS-newbie Jaguars have a much tougher slate remaining
(fi nish up with South Carolina and Navy) so a bowl invitation for Joey
Jones’ team could very well hang in the balance here. South Alabama does bring a 3-1 SU road mark into this game but more importantly, a
4-1 ITS mark in the last fi ve outings. In each of the Jags’ three losses this season, they were held to 9 or fewer points – not a likely scenario today versus an Arkansas State defense that gives up 26 PPG. No line on this contest yet as USA RB Jay Jones will not play and QB Brandon Bridge is listed as questionable. Still, we’ll overlook South Alabama’s recent 0-3
ATS run (favored in all three) and give the Jags the early nod.
The fi rst weekend of November usually provides us with games between two teams headed in opposite directions, and this Saturday is no exception. Tulane (going down) is headed nowhere fast after taking the bullet in four of its last fi ve contests, victimized by a popgun offense that averaged just 11.5 PPG in those games. That lack of fi repower simply won’t work against a Houston squad that appears to be hitting its stride, going 3-0 SUATS in the last three outings, including an impressive win on the road at Memphis. After a stumbling 1-2 start, the 5-3 Cougars have won four of their last fi ve on the scoreboard, against the spread and in the stats. We can work with numbers like those, especially in a series that’s seen Houie go 9-0-1 ATS in the last ten meetings and cover four of its last fi ve trips to New Orleans. Honestly, if not for three consecutive revenge games to close out the regular season, we’d be all over the Cougars today in what looks to be a one-team track meet. For now, however, we’ll be content to fade the sinking Green Wave as the fi red-up Coogs take the fi eld for the next-to-last time this season at almost-brand-new Houston Football Stadium.
Larry Blakeney sure deserved better. Now in his 25th and fi nal season on the Troy sidelines, one of the winningest coaches in college football history is doomed to exit with a tiny whimper instead of a big bang as his Trojans have disintegrated in 2014. With only a win over lowly New
Mexico State in nine games this season, Troy fi nds itself relegated to the Sun Belt basement with another 1-8 failure, Georgia State. Yes, it seems that misery does indeed love company… these two sob stories combined for a laughable 216 total yards in 32 and 44 point losses last week. And plenty of people are asking if the Panthers’ move from FCS to FBS wasn’t a tad premature: GSU has dropped eight straight since
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a season-opening win over Abilene Christian and is now 1-20 SU since hitting the big board last year. But while Troy defeated the Panthers,
35-28, as 15-point road chalk in 2013 and undoubtedly brings the better pedigree into this fracas, you won’t catch us laying wood in such a meaningless matchup. That’s because the Trojans will be dazed from the serious one-two punch of being a ‘leaking oil’ favorite (lost the stats in three straight games, and in eight of nine this season) and a ‘Puttin’ On
The Stats’ SMART BOX fade from last week’s issue. Since even Stephen
Hawking bows before the blinding brilliance of the sagacious square, we’ll steer clear of this black hole. However, if you somehow break free of the intense gravitational pull and can’t resist getting involved, heed
Hawking’s advice on today’s game: “Troy, schmoy… take the points.”
Rice appears to be at full boil right now. Arguably the hottest team in the land, the Owls have rolled to a 5-0 SUATS and ITS mark over their last fi ve games. Granted, those fi ve victims are currently awaiting membership approval to join the Sisters of the Poor, but Texas-San
Antonio would certainly fi t right in. To say that the Roadrunners have tripped over a few chuckholes this year is an understatement: following an impressive 27-7 season-opening upset win at Houston, Larry Coker’s crew lost their equilibrium en route to a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS skein that makes Wile E. Coyote look good by comparison. And though the blacktop birds should be recuperating after a much-needed week of rest, it may not help as Coker has fl oundered with a 1-6 ATS career mark on the highway after a bye. While naysayers will point to Rice’s huge
CUSA showdown with unbeaten Marshall next Saturday as providing too much of a distraction, we prefer to look at today’s matchup as an
‘it ain’t broke and we’re not about to fi x it’ contest. In other words, the bird ain’t the word in this high noon, Gulf Coast get-together.
Hey, with all the monkeying about with college uniforms these days, why not make the universities adopt ‘fl exible’ nicknames for the teams? For starters, you could damn sure take the ‘Golden’ away from FIU’s Panthers:
4-17 SU in not-quite-two seasons under Ron Turner (this guy coached in the NFL? Seriously?), the Panthers would be losing altitude if they weren’t already at sea level. They can, however, lay claim to one highlight in 2014
– smacking the hell out of their uppity neighbors to the north in Boca,
38-10. Turf battles aside, these guys were 8-4 and headed to a bowl in
2011; now they’re 3-6 and need to run the table to even get considered for postseason play. Stranger things have happened but we don’t see it, not with the Panthers’ ONLY stat win this season coming against Wagner.
Otherwise, FIU has gone 0-8 ITS versus FBS foes in 2014, failing to outyard an opponent in the last 15 games. Hmmm… chances are better than not if you don’t get outgained, you won’t get outscored! Cue the Monarchs, owners of an identical 3-6 mark and subject to the same pressures we just outlined with Florida International. And though we’d certainly be curious about seeing a 6-6 team go bowling in their fi rst FBS season, there are several roadblocks in our way. First, today is Homecoming on the ODU campus at Norfolk, so common sense tells us distractions will be at an alltime high surrounding the game. Second, the Monarchs have gone 0-5 SU and ATS in their last fi ve contests, losing by an average of 18.2 PPG. Finally, you’ve heard of a ‘double deuce’ offense, one that averages 200 yards or more both rushing and passing in every game? ODU fi elds the defensive version of the double deuce, giving up 235.4 yards rushing and 252.7 yards passing. Yikes! At the risk of being politically incorrect, we’d normally call this a Mexican standoff. Instead, we’ll congratulate the linesmaker on a sharp number and resume the hunt.
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Remember the scene in ‘Blazing Saddles’ where Mongo (the late, great Alex Karras) has a disagreement with a horse – then fl attens the critter with a single punch? We expect to see something similar take place in Austin this afternoon… with Texas head coach Charlie
Strong taking over the role of Mongo. In a nutshell: the Horns need two wins in their last three games to earn a bowl bid and with a season-ending war with powerful TCU still ahead, they’ll bring everything they’ve got here to make this game one of their two wins. Lest we forget, in the early lines posted by the Golden
Nugget in Las Vegas prior to the start of the season, the Longhorns were installed as 13-point favorites in this contest! We can only imagine the agony that West Virginia’s coaches and players are trying to overcome after the Mountaineers blew a 13-point 4thquarter lead at home and lost to the Froggies on a 37-yard fi eld goal as time expired. Still, the loss is only slightly more brutal than some of West Virginia’s ATS history for today’s rumble on the range: 1-4 ATS as conference road chalk of 7 or less points and 2-5
ATS playing with conference revenge. HC Dana Holgorsen doesn’t help matters with his 3-10 ATS failure as a conference favorite of 14 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Strong has notched a solid
9-3 ATS as a dog in his career versus .666 or greater opposition and the Longhorns aren’t using to losing their next-to-last home game of any season, going 15-1 SU since 1998. West Virginia had everything on their side last week, from the nasty weather to a stadium full of riled-up hillbillies, and still couldn’t close the sale.
We think the hungry, hungry Longhorns can up the intensity level here and eventually wear out the Mounties in the late going.
Besides, Texas fi nally rang up the double deuce on offense last week against Texas Tech, rushing for 241 yards and passing for 228 more. The Clincher: WVU is 0-10 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 3 points, including 0-5 ATS under Holgorsen.
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BEST BET
Have the Bruins fi nally turned their season around? After last week’s
17-7 throttling of Arizona, UCLA fi nds itself on a 3-game winning streak, just one shy of their 4-0 start to 2014. A closer look, however, shows that two of those three victims were California and Colorado, not exactly the class of the conference. Maybe HC Jim Mora’s sideline argument with his defensive coordinator accomplished something as the Bruins have tightened the screws defensively, holding three of their last four foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards (just 56 yards rushing to Cal, 80 to Arizona). They also picked up a rare pointspread cover, only their second all year. But when ATS history comes a-calling (it’s a class we never skipped), the Angelenos fl unk badly. How about 1-5 ATS in their Last Road Game, 3-10 ATS as Pac-12 road chalk of 7 or more points and 1-4 ATS away from the
Rose Bowl this year? Believe it. As we saw in the Seahawks game on
Sunday, now is the time when weather gets to be a real factor in
Seattle, no doubt a contributor to Washington’s outstanding 9-3-
1 SU and 11-2 ATS success as single-digit conference home dogs when U-Dub owns a winning record. A win here boosts the sled dogs into a 2nd-place tie with Stanford in the Pac-12 North while
UCLA’s next game is their biggest of the year – or any year – against the crosstown Trojans. Yes, they have two weeks to prepare but the
Bruins have dropped three straight ATS decisions with USC on deck.
Big step-up game for 1st-year HC Chris Petersen, whose squad also bested Cal and Ralphie for Washington’s two conference wins, as it’s time for his team to start winning a few games like this. The
Clincher: Huskies head coach Petersen is 51-5 SU at home, with only three losses by more than 2 points.
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Imagine that… fi nding a college football team on a 7-game losing streak laying double-digits this late in the season? Well, pinch yourself and let reality settle in because SMU is coming to town and as a result, Tulsa is obligated to pay the price. That’s because the feeble Mustangs are winless this season, losing by a shocking average of 41 PPG. Spending some quality time in the pasture has proved therapeutic for winless teams this late in the season: when they take the fi eld in Game Eight or greater with a week of rest, they’ve claimed the cash in fi ve of six (5-1
ATS) opportunities. In addition, the raring-to-go Ponies are powered by their personal 8-3 ATS log in games with an extra week to prepare.
One-win Tulsa has really struggled since opening the season with an overtime win against Tulane. Since then, they are riding a 0-7 SU losing streak, and their woes continue in this series versus SMU, owning a 2-9
ATS ledger when favored. In addition, the Golden Hurricane are 1-11
ATS as home favorites of 22 points or less when playing off a SU loss.
Toss in the fact that Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in its last six tries as home chalk and the forecast models indicate a stormy game plan for the hosts. Hop aboard as we ride the visitors to victory on horseback this Saturday.
Giddy-up, Mustangs!
The smells of fear and desperation were in the air at Connecticut last week when the humbled Huskies dragged a 5-game losing streak into their matchup against favored UCF. But lo and behold, the sled dogs somehow came away with an outright win as 8.5 point underdogs, despite losing the stats by over 100 yards in the victory. As a result of the upset, UConn shook up the AAC conference standings with no less than fi ve teams entering this weekend now currently tied for fi rst place.
Lost in the resulting celebration, though, was the fact that UConn had dropped its 3rd straight game In The Stats, making them a ‘leaking oil’ favorite today. Rest assured the Black Knights will show no fear when they tackle the Huskies at Yankee Stadium, not with their 8-3 ATS record as dogs of 3 or more points versus .400 or less foes. Look for Army to engineer a winning game plan this Saturday against a weary pack of
Huskies that are losing the stats by an average of 89 yards per game this season. A-ten-hut… we’re in the Army now.
The Tigers delivered the goods as our College False Favorite Game of the Month last Saturday in Oxford and with HC Gus Malzahn now a staggering 17-2 ATS after taking on a conference foe, we’re not about to bite the hand that fed us. Especially against an A&M group that is
1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since the beginning of October and whose starting quarterback is set to miss his second straight game for violating team rules. What could Kenny Hill have done that warranted a suspension four times worse than that of Johnny Football or twice that of Jameis
Winston? We’re guessing that his autographs didn’t fetch that much for A&M or his cafeteria rap wasn’t all that good. (We heard it went something like this: ‘The food here stinks, put that in your journal. If
I had a stipend, I’d hit the Taco Bell drive-thru or pick some Colonel.’)
Either way, the loss of Hill doesn’t bode well for the revenge-minded
Aggies (lost, 45-41, last year in College Station as 12.5-point favorites) who are just 2-6 ATS with conference revenge and 3-7 ATS as conference road dogs of 10 or more points. And while this major line swing looks tempting, so did the ‘devil with a blue dress on.’ C.S. Lewis, back in the early 1900’s, warned us not to fall to temptation when he said, “No man knows how bad he is till he has tried very hard to be good.” And we’ll oblige. Lay it or leave it as Aubbie improves to 6-0 ATS in Game
Nine of the season and 4-0 ATS before going ‘between the hedges.’
We can hear the Alabama fans now: “There goes the Playbook trying to take down the mighty Tide once again.” We admit that Bama may actually be the best team in the nation – they’ll sure have a chance prove it with both Mississippi State and Auburn still to come. But it’s also true that our well-oiled machine ignores opinions and polls and spews out winning morsels of information to satisfy our hungry appetite – such as the fact that Nick Saban is only human in games against rested, regularseason foes, going 21-9 SU and 11-16-1 ATS, including 4-5 SU and 1-8
ATS away versus winning opposition. Hmmm. So we’re guessing that those who look at this from the Tide side see an LSU squad that is 1-9
ATS in Last Home Games (LHG’s) the past 10 seasons, while those who support the Tigers see a team that is 16-3 SU in LHG’s since 1995 – with
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only one loss coming by more than tonight’s 6-point number, making them 18-1 with the spread to this number. And then there’s that welldocumented, jaw-dropping 46-4 SU record at home under Les Miles at night, not to mention a 5-1 ATS mark with rest and 5-1 ATS log with conference revenge. Couple that with ‘Bama’s 0-5 ATS mark as conference road chalk of 10 or less points and 1-4 ATS record away with rest and you can see why we believe it will be low Tide tonight in Tiger
Stadium. Yes, we can make a case for the elephants around election time (10-3 ATS off a SU win/ATS loss) but our vote shows the series host improving to 5-1 ATS. You know what to do.
With FSU, Oregon, Michigan State and one, if not two, SEC teams all but assured of a spot in the fi nal four if they run the table (or in the case of
Mississippi State, lose just once), there isn’t much room left for the Big
12 contingency. The 2-loss Sooners have already eliminated themselves from contention so now it comes down to TCU, Kansas State and Baylor.
Well, after this week, series history suggests ‘then there were two.’
That’s because the Bears’ last 10 trips to Norman have resulted in 10 SU losses by an average of 20.4 PPG. Somehow, though, they’ve managed to cover the last six in this building (we’re thinking an average line of
+25.5 had something to do with it). That won’t be the case today with the number sitting at under a touchdown and the Bears 1-4 ATS as road dogs of 9 or less points and the Sooners 7-2 ATS as home chalk of 10 or less. Baylor is also a woeful 2-7 ATS as pups versus a foe with conference revenge. But what really exposes the Bears comes courtesy of our database as it notes: HC Art Briles is a classic schoolyard bully, going 49-8 SU versus losing opposition, but just 28-44 SU against kids that fi ght back (read: winning teams). A deeper look shows the Bears’ head man is just 9-26 SU versus .750 or greater opposition, including
0-16 SU away. How ironic would it be if Bob Stoops and his $5 million annual salary cost the Bears and the conference a possible big payday?
Personally, we don’t think ‘Medium Game’ Bob really cares. Lay it and play it as Stoops walks away with Briles’ lunch… and the cover.
Is it us or does it seem as if Jimbo Fisher has delinquent QB Jameis
Winston on an invisible leash after every game? Forget the fact that
Fisher is around every Winston interview; Winston is also around every time Fisher speaks. Who might not be around anytime soon is Virginia
HC Mike London, who is now twisting in the hot seat again following three straight losses and appears in jeopardy of missing the alleys for a third straight year in Charlottesville. We know his troops will be trying hard for their likeable boss and UVA’s 5-1-2 ATS log as conference road dogs of 15 or more points suggests Avis would be proud. And while the Seminoles are 6-1 ATS as conference home favorites of 20 or more points, they are also just 3-7 ATS off a weekday affair and have a bigger game with Miami Florida on deck. Even the MIDWEEK ALERT sides with the visiting Wahoos as the small discrepancy in overall yardage
(FSU +62 YPG, UVA +48 YPG) doesn’t add up to this big a number. The
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bottom line – and the one that counts – is we refuse to lay this type of wood with defending champs in their Homecoming Game. Another simple case of take it or leave it.
If we didn’t release our False Favorite Game of the Month last week on
Auburn, this Conference USA fray would be under heavy consideration.
The 5-3 Miners currently sit one game back of La Tech in the West and are one win from being bowl eligible for the fi rst time in four years.
Meanwhile, the 3-5 Hilltoppers have the look of a team that will be enjoying the holidays at home. Worse, the ‘Toppers are a ‘leaking oil’ favorite to boot (0-4 ‘ITS’ last four) that arrives with a 545-YPG stop-unit that is only stingier than generous SMU. To that we say how in the heck is 1st-year HC Jeff Brohm’s team favored by over a touchdown? You’ve got us, but we’ll gladly grab the early Christmas present as UTEP’s 11-4
ATS log as conference road dogs of 7 or more points versus a foe off a
SU loss comes into play. Needless to say, there’s only one way to look in this False Favorite Game of the…wait! Did we just hear the juicy moneyline calling?
It’s offi cial. The mad scientist, Mike Leach, will be in his lab for the holidays for only the second time in his college-coaching career. Worse, star QB Connor Halliday – the nation’s leading passer – suffered a gruesome injury (broken fi bula) in last week’s loss to USC, ending his college career. Thus, the Cougs hit Corvallis clawless and hopeless – not a good combination for any team this time of year. It gets worse when you consider that the disappointing 4-4 Beavers – losers of three in a row and just 1-4 in conference play – need this like a carny needs a dentist if they hope to go bowling for a third straight campaign with
Arizona State and Oregon still dotting the slate. Series history (5-2 ATS last seven) suggests the Beavers stop the fl ood just in time and so does a 5-0 ATS mark at home off back-to-back SUATS losses with the last one coming at home. Lay the reasonable number as Leach just doesn’t have enough time to clone his star signal-caller.
Despite pulling out the engines from the Flyboys the past two seasons with a pair of underdog wins, the Rebels fi nd themselves in a good spot as the Force arrives with a win over the Army (0-4 ATS of late after clashing with the Cadets) with three more revengers waiting in the wings. The Falcons are just 10-24 ATS as road chalk off an away game, making this 6-point line a bit of a head-shaker considering the Rebels only took 2 points last season in Colorado Springs. And don’t be fooled by UNLV’s 2-7 SU mark this season. They are competitive at home as evidenced by a win over Fresno State and an ‘inside-out’ loss to New
Mexico last Saturday (lost the game, 31-28, won the stats, 485-306). So while we do think the superior Falcons will fi nd a way to win (though they did lose at Wyoming earlier in the year), military history tells us not to lay it this afternoon in Sin City.
As expected, the Vandals couldn’t steal a win at home last week against
Arkansas State but it wasn’t for lack of effort. They actually won the stats battle for a second straight week (and three of the last four) and are much improved in that category as the offense is 55 YPG better than last season while the defense is 62 yards to the plus. They were done in by 8 turnovers and that’s more than enough to stop any team, let alone one that has peeled off just three wins in its last 34 contests.
Fortunately, they catch the Aztecs in a bad scheduling spot as this nonconference affair has San Diego State entering off a crucial loss to
Nevada (now trail the Wolf Pack for the West division lead in the MWC) with an eye towards Boise State and the Blue Turf next week. As it is, the Aztecs are just 3-8-1 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 7 or more points. So if Paul Petrino’s potato heads can wipe the vegetable oil off their fi ngers and not turn the ball over, they just may be able to ring the register today in sunny San Diego. Take it if you play it.
Forget about Halloween… the scariest thing the Thundering Herd encountered in October was their 1st-half performance against FAU two weeks ago. Down 16-0, they didn’t allow a point the rest of the way, so the 35-16 fi nal score doesn’t look all that bad for the undefeated Herd.
But to remain unbeaten, a team will occasionally need an unexpected contributor to step up in a tough situation. In this case, it was RB Devon
Johnson, a former tight end who picked up the slack when Rakeem
Cato was struggling, and fi nished with 272 rushing yards and four TD’s.
With last week off, Doc Holliday spent time with his team going over what went wrong in the early going against the Owls, and probably caught a little of East Carolina’s loss to Temple. Marshall now has a clear run to go undefeated and garner a coveted New Year’s Day bowl bid.
But we can’t lay this big load of wood, not with the pressure squarely on them and the SMART BOX insisting we don’t run with the Herd this week. Part of that is because the Golden Eagles have shown signs of major improvement this season – losing games 66 YPG as opposed to 121 YPG last year – and haven’t lost a game by this number since they took a 40-point shellacking at Alabama in Week Three. SMissy QB
Nick Mullens went out early in the La Tech game with a foot injury and missed last week’s contest with UTEP, so with his status for this week up in the air, we’ll wait to see a solid line before moving forward.
The Owls’ three wins this season have come against teams that are currently 6-18 combined on the season. But hold it... that means the
2-6 Lean Green fi t that profi le perfectly! However, FAU has lost three straight times to North Texas and that makes it very diffi cult for us to lay points on the road to the Mean Green. The Owls are not exactly road warriors, as they have laid points away from Boca Raton just once this season and got clobbered in that game by their South Florida rivals,
Florida International. On the fl ip side, Dan McCarney’s team is having a terrible year on the heels of last year’s 9-4 record and a bowl appearance, going 0-4 SUATS in October heading into this matchup in Denton. In their only two wins this season (over FCS foe Nicholls State and the absolutely horrible SMU Mustangs), they held those foes to 3 and 6 points, respectively. In contrast, they have allowed 30 or more points in their six losses. Suffi ce it to say that we have no interest whatsoever in this maddening affair, as life is too short to bet on dull football games.
Can these guys run the football, or what? The Eagles are quickly becoming one of our favorite teams and Willie Fritz one of our favorite head coaches. The top running team in the land at 407 RYPG resides in
Statesboro and they don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
We’re not stepping in front of this runaway train after six straight victories, that’s for sure, especially since their only defeats have come against two ACC squads by narrow margins. As for the Bobcats, they fi nd themselves in the same position as last year (5-3 after eight games), but Dennis Franchione hopes to improve on last season’s fi nish when his team went 1-3 with three straight double-digit losses down the stretch. Right now, they are coming off back-to-back wins despite being outyarded in both games (including a 200+ yard defi cit last week versus
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New Mexico State, highlighted by 404 yards passing by the Aggies’ Tyler
Jones). However, it’s Franchione’s 216 YPG rush defense that is likely shaking in their cleats as you read this. Having said that, there’s only one way to look here.
Both of these teams let us down last week but at least the Buffs managed to win the stats in their loss to Washington, and that has been the trend for Mike MacIntyre’s improving team. As we mentioned in last week’s newsletter, Buffy’s numbers are up by a huge margin over last season (offense +105 YPG; defense +25 YPG). It was big mistakes that cost Colorado against Washington, as a pick-six and an 87-yard punt return by the Huskies sealed the loss. As for Arizona, their 7-point effort
(shut out for the fi nal 57 minutes) versus UCLA has us wondering if the wheels are coming off for Rich Rod. The desert Cats’ lowest scoring output of the season going into the matchup with the Bruins was 26 points, but now they have been outstatted by nearly 300 yards over the last 2 games. The bright spot for the Wildcats has been on defense the past two Saturdays as sophomore LB Scooby Wright won conference defensive honors for the second straight week. He made 19 tackles versus UCLA with 4.5 of them for a loss of yardage including 3 sacks and now has 10 sacks in his fi ve Pac-12 games this season. QB Anu Solomon completed just 18 of 48 passes last week and that’s just not going to cut it. We think Solomon will get back on track this week and get the
Wildcats back in the win column, but we can’t lay heavy wood with a questionable Homecoming favorite against an improved avenging foe... not with U-Dub revenge up next!
The Broncos have been playing well on their blue turf lately, holding four of their last fi ve foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards on defense.
On the other side of the ball, QB Grant Hedrick and RB Jay Ajayi are tearing it up on offense, scoring 41 points in the fi rst half against BYU in their last game before the bye week. In fact, Boise is sneaking up on
Marshall and Colorado State for an automatic berth in a New Year’s
Six bowl game (don’t forget that the Broncos beat the Rams early in the season). The problem here is the SMART BOX is calling them bad names like he’s got Tourette’s Syndrome or something, and BSU also has a huge revenge affair with San Diego State up next. Lady Luck was with
New Mexico in a rare win for the Lobos in Vegas last week, despite the fact that they were outgained by the Rebels, 485-306. That was a little surprising as Bob Davie’s squad is ranked 4th in the nation in rushing with 304 YPG. They will likely get pushed around here today, too, but
17-point running dogs have a way of fi nding a home on these pages.
The Rams have navigated the rocky footing of the Mountain division of the MWC and for the time being hold the lead by a half-game over Boise
State and Utah State (Broncos hold the tie-breaker at the moment). You know the old saying: “If it ain’t broke, we’re not gonna fi x it” – and we’re huge disciples of that. (We even have a bumper sticker on the back of our Ford Pinto just to remind everyone.) CSU QB Garrett Grayson is fl ying under the radar nationally, but is 5th in the NCAA in passing effi ciency and 7th in passing yardage with 2,746. His favorite target,
Rashard Higgins, leads the country in receiving yards and TD’s. However, both were injured last week against San Jose State and while Grayson
(groin injury) is now expected to play this week, Higgins (shoulder) is doubtful. Be sure to check their status – the loss of either (or both) would be a huge blow to the Rams. Not that we would even consider backing Norm Chow on the mainland, as the Rainbow Warriors are 0-18
SU away with Chow at the helm, posting just 6 ATS covers in 15 lined
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games. Hawaii has also played like they’ve been running in molten lava in this series, failing to cover in fi ve straight games in Fort Collins, and they are 1-4 as conference road dogs of 15 or more points. Lay it if they
(Grayson and Higgins) play it. Don’t if they can’t.
A titanic battle for supremacy in the Big 10 East as the Buckeyes try to regain some of the national respect they lost when the Spartans beat them 34-24 in the Big 10 Championship Game last December, Urban
Meyer’s fi rst loss as head coach at Columbus. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett put it succinctly: “It’s time for revenge. It’s time to take care of business in East Lansing.” The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS as conference dogs of 7 or more points and 12-1 ATS with conference revenge, but besides all the
Big 10 ramifi cations, this is truly the only marquee matchup for Ohio
State on the schedule this regular season with Michigan being down, so this is a must-win if they are going to get a major bowl bid. Michigan
State gets all the accolades on defense, but both teams are ranked in the Top 10 nationally in Total Defense, while the Buckeyes have actually allowed 3 less points this season under DC Luke Fickell. Finally, the visitor in this series has covered fi ve straight matchups. In this clash of titans, we’ll go with the revenging dog to make it six.
The Ragin’ Cajuns were pummeled in consecutive September games by
Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss and Boise State, but after a week off, Mark
Hudspeth had his team refocused as they moved into their Sun Belt schedule. Four straight wins without a loss later, Louisiana is now tied in the loss column with Georgia Southern for the Sun Belt lead (the Eagles have two more SBC wins right now at 6-0), and cannot afford a slip-up at this stage of the season. That also spells pressure and we’re right there to apply more with a less-than-gentle reminder that a revenge affair with in-state rival Monroe is up next (1-4 SUATS before playing the Warhawks). The hosts suffered a puzzling 8-point loss here last week to Texas State as the Aggies outyarded the Bobcats, 639-430. Still, we must say that the Homecoming dog, playing with revenge, catches our fancy. We just don’t expect them to put an end to a 7-game losing skid, but we do believe that Doug Martin’s team will keep it relatively competitive.
This looks like overtime waiting to happen if both teams play up to their potential. Last year the 7-point favorite Sun Devils dropped an excruciating 37-34 decision to the Irish at Cowboys Stadium in a game that was as statistically tight as the fi nal score suggests. However, Notre
Dame was missing QB Everett Golson in that one and he’ll be behind center this afternoon (along with his 4-0 SUATS record as a regularseason underdog). The Irish have claimed the pot of gold in both dog opportunities this season, as well as in the last three get-togethers in this intriguing series. Neither team has done much after battling the previous week’s opponent – the Dame is a dreadful 1-9 ATS after
(continued on next page)
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chasing Navy and the desert Devils are 1-3-1 ATS following Utah – but the Golden Domers are 4-1 ATS of late when rumbling on the Pac-12 road. Don’t look for any meaningful edge in the matchup of seasonal stats either, as these two are so close together you’d have trouble sliding a piece of paper between ‘em. In troubled times like these, we lean on the inspiration of our favorite A.I. buddy and the mean machine immediately points out Arizona State’s weak 1-5 ATS home record versus greater-than .500 non-conference foes from Game Four out, as well as a 2-6 ATS mark in the second of back-to-back home games. Yes, we’re aware that ND MLB Joe Schmidt, the team’s leading tackler, has been lost for the season with a fractured ankle but the bottom line is we feel Brian Kelly and his staff have a better shot at winning this rematch than Todd Graham and his minions, though ASU does have some impressive wins in its current 4-game streak. In what is essentially a playoff elimination game, we think Irish QB Golson keeps his team’s
1-loss record intact as the Sun Devils fade into the 2-loss shadow world.
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BEST BET
Look out… here come the Ducks! We picked Oregon to win the national championship in our 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Preview
Guide magazine and despite an early setback, they’re in prime position to pounce. After what many said would be a playoffkilling loss to Arizona at home in October (Ducks were -21.5),
Oregon regrouped and went on a 4-0 SUATS tear, including a huge double-revenge win over Stanford last Saturday. The task at hand for the Ducks today will be to avoid a major letdown off the Cardinal victory but we’re not overly concerned: Oregon has won 54 of its last 62 conference games by double-digit margins while going 46-16 ATS in those wins! Granted, getting the money away from Eugene hasn’t been easy for the webbed feet but our
MIDWEEK ALERT has pointed out the holes in the Utes team all season long, and we feel the roof is about to blow off this smoke-and-mirrors squad in the glare of tonight’s ESPN spotlight.
Despite being 6-2 SU and 6-1 ATS this season, Utah is allowing 10
YPG more than they gain this season, thanks to a shocking 0-6 ITS streak entering tonight’s contest. They’re starting to fray around the edges, too, as they’ve been in nail-biters the last three times out: edging Oregon State in OT, beating USC by a fi eld goal with
8 seconds remaining and losing by a fi eld goal in OT to Arizona
State last week. The Utes also haven’t made many trips to the pay window when losing SU as a conference dog, going 18-39-1
ATS. In addition to a revitalized Marcus Mariota calling the shots,
Oregon boasts a recent 7-2 ATS road mark when facing a revengeminded conference foe. What more do you want? How about The
Clincher: .600 or greater college football home teams off an overtime loss (Utah) are 1-10-1 ATS since the inception of OT if they beat the spread by more than 3 points in the loss and are facing a .250 or greater conference opponent today.
In yet another playoff eliminator, two more quality 1-loss teams lock horns in Fort Worth, a matchup also featuring two outstanding head coaches in KSU’s Bill Snyder and TCU’s Gary Patterson. Snyder, so revered that the stadium where the Wildcats play is named after him, has his team in a 3-way tie atop the Big 12 standings with the Frogs and Baylor.
And much like the Ol’ Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier, Snyder has made a living in conference games in his career at KSU (185-91-1 SU and 144-
96-1 ATS). TCU’s Patterson, who struggled to fi eld a competitive team when the Frogs joined the Big 12 two seasons ago, has pushed all the right buttons with this year’s powerhouse squad (major credit to QB
Trevone Boykin). Not only have the horned ones locked things down defensively, holding two of their last three foes to season-low yards, they also own a sizable edge today in the offensive passing game and in turnover margin (+9 over the Wildcats). But the silver fox has frustrated
Patterson in their two prior meetings, winning both games outright, and the Manhattan Cats have cashed in three of the last four face-offs with TCU. From an ATS standpoint, the Frogs’ recent 0-3 ATS effort as home favorites of less than 10 points fi ts just fi ne with KSU’s nearperfect 9-1 ATS dog log versus avenging conference foes, and a 6-1 ATS mark as an underdog of 10 or fewer points. In one of the toughest calls of the day, we’ll side with the better defensive dog and the coach who’s tasted more success in big games. Grab what you can and hold on tight.
Matchup of two disappointing 3-win teams still clinging to faint bowl aspirations – though in today’s ‘anyone can play’ bowl landscape, such a description probably applies to 80 or 90 teams. You know how those ’10
Best’ lists start fl oating around the internet a few weeks before the start of a new season? We’re not sure how many ’10 Best Revenge Games’ list included this one but ours sure would have. In case your memory ain’t what it used to be, we’ll remind you that the underdog Spartans ruined 10-0 Fresno State’s shot at a perfect 2013 regular season and a BCS Bowl berth when they dropped 62 points and 736 yards on top of the befuddled Bulldogs. FSU has not played .500 football since that embarrassing defeat and can’t kick off this opportunity to exorcise the
Spartan demon fast enough. It won’t be easy: the loss of QB Derek Carr to the NFL has fractured this team as the offense is down 16 points and
136 YPG from 2013. And perhaps the puzzling loss here to Wyoming last week (Fresno State’s defense allowed 696 yards in the 28-point defeat) could be attributed to looking ahead to this game. Then again, it can likely be attributed to the lack of talent on the fi eld. Ron Caragher’s
Spartans have improved over 100 YPG on the defensive side of the ball compared to last year’s effort but the offense has been on hiatus, slipping 8 points and 74 YPG. Still, José can be a handful, as Colorado
State found out when the Rams barely got out of Spartan Stadium alive in last Saturday’s tense 7-point win. The bottom line: this is meaningful revenge for the home team Bulldogs – and at this price, we’re buying in.
It’s amazing what the Bye week has meant to these two in-state rivals.
After a 3-0 SUATS start to begin the season, the Bengals took a snooze and have had a hard time waking up, going 2-2-1 SU, 1-3-1 ATS and 3-2
ITS since. On the fl ip side, the Browns hit the playbook during their time off and have responded with a 4-1 SU mark. As a result, Cleveland sports a winning record for the fi rst time since 2007. They’re also 4-0 ATS on
Thursdays and 3-1-1 ATS the last fi ve games in this series. That fi ts like the
Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland next to Cincinnati’s 1-3 SUATS mark on Thursdays. And what odds would you have offered had we told you Brian Hoyer would own a better QB rating than Andy Dalton entering this contest? One main concern, though, is the Browns’ 0-3 ITS log in their last three games, despite winning two of those contests SU. Another is a
3-17 SU and 7-12-1 ATS record in road games off a pair of home games, including 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in division duke-outs. And then there is
Cincy’s 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS log in its last 14 regular season home games. Now that we’ve taken you from Cincinnati to Cleveland and back, we’ll hitch a ride down I-71 and enjoy all the Montgomery Inn ribs and
Skyline chili we can devour before bellying up with the Bengals tonight.
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The third and fi nal tea and crumpets show in London for the 2014
NFL season kicks off Sunday with as much uncertainty surrounding the game as a politician’s promise when the Cowboys take on the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London. With Dallas quarterback Tony Romo’s condition unknown it’s simply impossible to take a side as we go to press. What we do know, though, is the Cowboys are 4-0 SUATS in their last four battles away from Big ‘D’ against NFC South opponents while the Jags bring a 0-3 SUATS mark in head-to-head scrapes against NFC
East foes into this contest. On the opposite side of the trend wars is
Dallas’ 0-7 ATS mark in games off a non-division battle when facing a sub .500 AFC opponent – and Jacksonville’s 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record against .500 or greater opponents they’ve defeated in each of their last two get-togethers. Then there is a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS all-time mark by favorites of 4 or more points in these English muffi n matchups.
The bottom line here is this: backup Dallas QB Brandon Weeden is 0-9
SUATS in his last nine NFL starts. Tony Romo is not. That’s all you need to know until the doctor’s report comes out.
Two hot teams from opposing conferences lock horns at Ford Field where the 5-3 Dolphins face the 6-2 Lions in a matchup of two franchises that own just one playoff appearance each since the 2002 season. Even more surprising is the fact that Detroit and Miami rank No. 1 and No. 3 in overall team defense this season, improving their defensive stats 57 YPG and 54 YPG respectively over last year’s numbers. The biggest hurdle for the men from Motown is trying to reclaim their sea legs after a visit to
London in their last game, as home teams in their fi rst game back are
0-7 ATS all-time after claiming a win in front of the Queen. Toss in the
Lions’ 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record when hosting AFC East opponents and you can understand our concern. Complicating matters is Miami’s 5-0
SUATS away mark in games at NFC North sites. The MIDWEEK ALERT also informs us that in the Dolphins’ recent 3-0 SUATS run they own a decisive 10-1 edge in turnovers. With head coach Joe Philbin and QB
Ryan Tannehill now 20-20 SU since coming into the league together in
2012, including 11-1 ATS as non-division dogs of 6 or less points, we’ll look the Dynamic Duo’s way once again today.
At fi rst glance, this looks to be a choppy call. The Chiefs roll into Buffalo on a 5-1 SUATS run, including 3-0 SUATS the last three, knowing last year they opened the 2013 campaign with a 9-0 skein under Andy
Reid before coming back down to earth. And Reid has played with aplomb in games in his NFL career against AFC East opponents, going
7-1 ATS. On the other side sits new Bills’ QB Kyle Orton and his 1-6
SUATS record as a starter in the NFL versus AFC West opponents. So why is it we’re enamored with the wild wings this week, you ask?
Aside from Orton owning the fourth best QB Rating in the loop this season (104.0), the Bills have dominated the Chiefs in this series of late going 6-1 ATS – while also sporting a 6-1 SUATS mark in their last seven games as series host. KC’s 1-7 ATS ledger in road games versus non-division foes off a SU double-digit win also adds to the equation.
But truth be known, Marc’s ‘Peek-a-Boo’ angle from the 2004 BLACK
BOOK is in full force here as road favorites from Game Nine out with the defending Super Bowl champs on deck are just 3-13 ATS when facing an opponent off a spread win in its last game. Sure we could chop the pot and walk away with half the money. Instead, we’re going all-in with the Bills this Sunday.
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BEST BET
Oh my. Jim Harbaugh’s perfect world is suddenly spinning out of control. And like the fat kid who fell and couldn’t get back up, the Jaw is sitting at .500 and looking square in the face of a losing record here today. Yes, we realize Harbaugh brings a shiny 5-0 ATS mark in non-division games off a SU favorite loss into this contest but he is going up against the wrong team in the wrong place at the wrong time this Sunday. Aside from taking on the league’s
2nd ranked offense that is hitting on all cylinders at the moment, the Niners have lost seven of their last nine games here on the
Superdome scoreboard. Meanwhile, as QB Colin Kaepernick’s struggles continue (14th ranked passer in QB Ratings this season), his adversary, Drew Brees, continues to heat up. Brees’ 25-8 ATS career mark in games off a double-digit win when taking on .500 or greater non-division opponent casts a huge quarterback back edge his way today. Given the Saints’ sterling 20-game win streak at home under Sean Payton since 2011, including 18-2 ATS , we can only look one way in this fray. And speaking of Payton, here’s
The Clincher: The Saints are 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS at home during the regular season under Payton in games versus non-division opponents who own a .500 or greater record.
As a wise old man once told us, “Not everything in life is as it seems on the surface.” And that especially holds true when it comes to handicapping the NFL. At fi rst glance, Baltimore appears to be strong
‘play-on’ material in this contest, as winning teams returning home off a pair of road losses are a stout 63-37-1 ATS overall since 1980. And then there’s our NFL Coaches League database as it informs us that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU loss of 7 or more points, including 6-0 SUATS in nondivision games. Toss in Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s wimpy 8-19
ATS career mark in games against NFL foes off a pair of SU losses and it looks like an open-and-shut case for the Black Birds. What keeps us off Baltimore today, though, is our ‘post Mike Tomlin’ factor as home teams who fi nd themselves favored after tackling Tomlin’s Steelers are a clammy 9-24 ATS. So, as that wise old man Paul Harvey liked to say,
“Now you know the rest of the story.”
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BEST BET
Yes, we know we’re insisting that you step in front of the NFL’s hottest quarterback with arguably the league’s most erratic signal caller, but once again our well-oiled machine examines the facts, and not the feelings, when it comes to working up a game. And the facts are Marc’s ‘Darlin’ Be Home Soon’ BETCHA DIDN’T
KNOW article on page 2 tells us the right side in this contest. In addition to the Steelers taking to the road for the fi rst time in a month, they are also looking dead ahead to a nasty revenge loss suffered to Tennessee in their season-opener last year, a loss that spiraled them into a 0-4 hole they could never climb out of. Enter
Michael Vick and the Jets, looking to atone for three straight losses in this series. That’s not a good omen for Big Ben’s boys considering their 1-5 ATS log in the last six skirmishes against foes seeking triple revenge-exact. And speaking of the dog-killer, Vick’s
5-1 ATS career mark as a starter in this league in games off a SUATS loss when facing a foe off a SUATS win also works in the Flyboys’ favor. With Roethlisberger in off an NFL record of back-to-back six touchdown pass performances, it’s clearly time to let the dogs out.
The Clincher: Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 4-12 ATS away versus non-division opponents with a losing record, including 0-8 ATS when the Steelers are off a SUATS win.
If ever revenge meant anything in the NFL, this would be the case. Roll back to the 3rd week of the season this year. The Buccaneers, under new head coach Lovie Smith, have opened the season 0-2 with a pair of home losses and are visiting division rival Atlanta. Five turnovers and 56 points later they leave the Georgia Dome with their tails dragging following a 42-point loss. It would not only mark the WORST
LOSS EVER for Smith in his NFL career but also send the Bucs into a 1-7 tailspin to conclude the fi rst half of the season in the new Lovie-era.
What better time to pick up his fi rst home win in Tampa than against
Atlanta’s 409 YPG (worst) defense, still wobbly after devouring fi shand-chips in London. With the Falcons falling apart at the seams and
Smith the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, you know what to do. Let the love fest begin.
All aboard. Those wishing to hop on the Broncos’ train following last week’s pitiful performance against the Patriots, hurry and get in line at platform 1. Those wishing to distance themselves from the debacle and instead join allegiance with the sole remaining winless team in the league, platform 2 is calling your name – and plenty of space is available. However, if you choose to run with Peyton Manning this week be advised: the tall Tennessean is just 14-22 ATS in his NFL career in games after losing as a favorite the previous game, including 3-10
ATS in division contests, and 0-6 ATS when facing a losing division foe.
Then there’s one of the best home dog logs to come down the tracks in a long time working in the Raiders’ favor, namely a 26-8 ATS record of late for hosts grabbing 8 or more points (albeit 0-5 ATS the last fi ve).
With Oakland having taken it on the chin each of the last fi ve times in this series, and Denver a dastardly 1-5 ATS against quintuple revenge seeking division rivals, there’s still plenty of good seating to be found on platform 2... if you catch our drift.
We’d love to make a case for each of these two overachievers. The problem is we can… and in the end it leaves us scratching our head wondering which way to go. The Cardinals have been brilliant under
Bruce Arians, our hands-down vote for NFL Coach of the Year for the fi rst half of the season. With only a loss at Denver, the Redbirds sit atop the NFC West with a healthy two-game lead, despite being outgained
36 YPG on the season. Simply amazing. Meanwhile, the Rams have weathered their way through a myriad of injuries behind an unsung
NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.
coach (Jeff Fisher) who refuses to toss in the towel. Yes, Louie is on the road for the third straight week and is off a startling upset win as a double-digit dog over San Francisco. The value, though, appears to have evaporated with Fisher’s troops taking a fi eld goal (3 points) less here than they did last week. You know we’re not about to lay a touchdown into the NFL’s best underdog coach, and we’re concerned about taking the same in this dynamic. Thus, we’re putting up our hands and saying: pass. You should, too.
The Giants laid an egg for us Monday night when they caught the best young quarterback in the league – Andrew Luck – at his best. The
G-men now pack their bags and head to the left coast to take on a team struggling like they are in the defending champion Seahawks.
Perhaps it’s best if you’re Eli Manning heading west as his record away from home (48-38 SU and 50-34-3 ATS) shines as opposed to that in the
Big Apple. Peyton’s kid brother is also 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS in his NFL career in games against NFC West opposition, including 7-3 SU and 8-2
ATS away. On the other side of the coin, Seattle brings a sickly 3-15 ATS mark into the contest when playing off a win versus a non-division foe playing with double revenge-exact. And if Tom Coughlin needs to get his troops back up off the mat this week, he simply needs to make them sit through game fi lm of last year’s 23-0 blank job at MetLife Stadium.
When push comes to shove, we’ll take the touchdown in a matchup of two teams going bad.
Something’s amiss in the Windy City these days and suddenly it’s not the Cubs (go Joe Maddon). If you’re a Bears lover, we present our hardto-like stat of the week: QB Aaron Rodgers is 11-3 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL versus Chicago while Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is
1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS as a starter in the NFL versus the Packers. To make matters worse, our NFL QB database also informs us Rodgers is at his absolute best in division play as evidenced by his 29-9 SU and 27-11 ATS career mark, including 12-2 ATS when off a SU loss and 4-0 ATS when playing with rest. Sure, this is a do-or-die game for the Bears but we’ve been saying that pretty much all season. With the Packers trailing the
Lions by a full game in the NFC North, it’s time once again for Green
Bay to heed the words of their immortal leader. Just ‘relax’ and go with the fl ow.
5
BEST BET
A Monday night matchup of two teams clearly headed in opposite directions fi nds the Eagles returning home off a pair of away games while the Panthers hit the road off a pair of home affairs. That sets the table for tonight’s fray as Marc’s ‘Prove
It All Night’ article from the 2006 BLACK BOOK reminds us of the good fortune of NFL home teams in Monday Night games when taking on an opponent off a home game (see The
Clincher below for greater detail). Aside from Philly’s fantastic
12-2 ATS mark on Monday off a SU win when facing a team off a SU loss, Carolina’s paltry 1-5-1 all-time ATS record in games off a loss when meeting NFC East opponents off a win fi ts like bacon-and-eggs in this contest. The concern for Eagles’ fans is the loss of QB Nick Foles, but his 26th ranked 81.5 QB Rating this season is not anything to lose sleep over. Not when backup Mark
Sanchez brings 68 NFL career starts into the game, including a
1-0 SUATS mark in his only start against the Panthers. Finally, our all-knowing database supplies The Clincher: NFL Monday
Night home teams off back-to-back road games are 20-4
SU and 17-6-1 ATS since 1980 when facing an opponent off back-to-back home games, including 15-1 SUATS versus a
.666 or less foe.
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Now in its 29th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winnerstake-all handicapping event sponsored by PLAYBOOK.com. All plays are graded against the lines posted after 4:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS
CONTEST page at PLAYBOOK.com. Each week below we'll post Single Plays from the Top 20 point-earners. Following the play is their overall Win-Loss record / Double Play record / Total Points earned to date.
Below are the current Top 20 Contestants from the 2014 Wise Guys Contest – One Point Single Plays Listed
billycolemansports.com
playbook.com
brewcitysports.net
sportsxradio.com
docsports.com
jerseykidpicks.com
jhsportsline.com
nellysports.com
playbook.com
mjmsportsline.com
W Kentucky (-7.5)
Ohio State (+3.5)
Purdue (+17)
Kansas (+5.5)
Air Force (-6.5)
Tulane (+17.5)
JETS (+4)
RAIDERS (+11)
JETS (+4)
RAVENS (-9.5)
10-8 / 6-3 / 16 pts
12-5-1 / 6-2-1 / 18 pts
11-6-1 / 7-1-1 / 18 pts
12-6 / 5-4 / 17 pts
12-6 / *6-3 / 19 pts
13-4-1 / 7-2* / 20 pts
13-5 / 7-2* / 20 pts
11-6-1 / 5-3-1 / 16 pts
12-6 / 7-2 / 19 pts
11-7 / 5-4 / 16 pts
playbook.com
playbook.com
yahoo sports radio
docsports.com
rossbenjaminsports.com
playbook.com
statfox.com
prosportsinfo.com
freesportsinfo.com
610.288.5252
Oklahoma (-4.5)
Oklahoma (-4.5)
Air Force (-6.5)
Oklahoma (-4.5)
RAMS (+7)
Texas (+3.5)
Florida Int’l (+3)
Texas A&M (+21.5)
Colorado (+15)
Chi-GB UNDER 52.5
13-5 / 7-2 / 20 pts
10-8 / 7-2 / 17 pts
10-8 / 6-3 / 16 pts
12-6 / 6-3 / 18 pts
10-8 / 6-3 / 16 pts
11-6-1 / 5-3-1 / 16 pts
12-6 / 4-5* / 16 pts
10-8 / 7-2 / 17 pts
12-6 / 8-1 / 20 pts
11-7 / 4-5 / 15 pts
To view the entire Wise Guys standings, including Triple, Double and Single plays, visit www.PLAYBOOK.com and cash in this weekend for only $12!
The fi rst 8 games of the NFL schedule are listed below. As always, the number listed fi rst is the ‘OVER’ and the number
AN 'OVER / UNDER'
REPORT ON THIS listed second is the ‘UNDER’. The ENTIRE 2-minute Handicap (all 16 gms) along with this week’s 3 NFL O/U BEST
BETS will appear in the 2014 ‘TOTALS’ TIPSHEET by Victor King – the defi nitive weekly OU newsletter. A single issue
WEEK'S NFL CARD is only $8.00 (or $53 for the season). Last year’s record: 32-17-2 ATS (65%). Sent via email on Tuesdays. Call the
BY VICTOR KING
PLAYBOOK offi ces to get on the 2014 “Totals Train”! … *This week’s TREND play: Dolphins @ Lions ’OVER’ the TOTAL.
2 0 1 4 N A T I O N A L F O O T B A L L L E A G U E – W E E K T E N
GAME MATCHUPS
Cleveland
CINCINNATI
Dallas
Jacksonvile
Miami
DETROIT
Kansas City
BUFFALO
San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS
Tennessee
BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh
NY JETS
Atlanta
TAMPA BAY
KEY OVER/UNDER STATS
5-1 O/U L6 vs Cin (48.3)... 17-3 O/U off BB HG’s... but 1-4 O/U Gm 9... 1-3 O/U Thursdays... 3-6 O/U L9 div RG’s
8-2 O/U in 2nd of BB HG’s... 7-3 O/U L10 div HG’s... but 1-4 O/U Gm 9... 2-6 O/U aft Jax... 3-5 O/U Thursdays.
3-0 O/U favs off BBB HG... 4-1 O/U bef Bye... 4-1 O/U L5 vs Jax (44.2)... 3-1 O/U Gm 10... but 1-5 O/U vs .250 < opp Gm 8 >
5-0 O/U as non-conf dogs 7 > pts... 4-1 O/U bef Bye... 3-1 O/U bef Indy... 3-1 O/U aft Cin... 3-1-1 O/U vs NFC East
4-1 O/U non-conf RG’s... 4-1 O/U dogs off SU W 21 > pts... 4-1 O/U aft score 35 >... 8-3 O/U aft SD... 5-2 O/U dogs in Domes
4-0 O/U aft Atl... 4-1 O/U vs opp off BBB SU W... 8-2 O/U as non-conf HF’s... 3-1 O/U aft Bye... 3-1 O/U bef Ariz
5-1 O/U favs vs opp off Bye... 8-2 O/U as non-div RF’s... but 1-5 O/U Gm 9... 3-9 O/U L12 vs Buf (39.0)... 1-3 O/U bef Seat
4-1 O/U bef Thur gm... 4-1 O/U bef Mia... 5-2 O/U aft socre 40+ pts... but 1-5 O/U home aft Bye... 3-9 O/U Gm 9
3-1 O/U Gm 9... 6-2 O/U aft Stl.. but 1-6 O/U off SU home fav loss... 1-5 O/U aft allow 13 < pts... 1-4 O/U aft score 10 < pts
10-3 O/U aft Car... 6-2 O/U gm 9... but 0-4 O/U L4 vs NFC West... 0-4 O/U favs vs opp off SU fav loss... 2-6 O/U vs .500 opp
5-0 O/U bef Mon gm... 4-1 O/U Gm 9... 3-1 O/U aft Bye... but 0-4 O/U L4 away vs Bal (25.3)... 1-3 O/U aft Hou
4-1 O/U bef Bye... 7-2 O/U aft Pit... 5-2 O/U non-div HF’s 8 > pts... but 0-3 O/U H off BB RG... 1-5 O/U vs AFC South
5-1 O/U aft Balt... 7-2 O/U as non-div RF’s 5 < pts... but 1-10 O/U L11 vs NYJ (26.7)... 0-10 O/U bef Mon gm... 0-5 O/U bef Ten
6-1-1 O/U bef Bye... 4-1-1 O/U Gm 10... 6-2 O/U bef Buf... but 1-4 O/U vs AFC North... 1-4 O/U non-div HD’s 5 < pts
5-1 O/U aft Bye... 5-1-1 O/U L7 as div RF’s... 5-1 O/U vs .333 < opp Gm 9 >... 4-1 O/U off SU loss 3 < pts
6-0 O/U Gm 9... 6-0 O/U vs opp off Bye... 5-0 O/U home off SU L / ATS W... 3-0 O/U L3 vs Atl (64.3)... 6-3 O/U bef Wash
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Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the SportsOptions.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin.
You have a PLAYBOOK Recommendation whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points off the opening line. Remember, opening lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a fi nal play.
All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Offi cial International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4
101
102
103
104
BOWLING GREEN
8:00 PM
AKRON ESPN2
TOLEDO
8:00 PM
KENT ST ESPNU
1
5
12 10
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5
105
106
107
108
BUFFALO
8:00 PM
OHIO U ESPNU
NO ILLINOIS
8:00 PM
BALL ST ESPN2
1
4
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6
109
110
111
112
CLEVELAND
8:25 PM
CINCINNATI NFL
CLEMSON ESPN
7:30 PM
WAKE FOREST
OL PB
3
2’
9 11
21 16
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7
113
114
115
116
MEMPHIS
7:30 PM
TEMPLE ESPNU
UTAH ST
8:00 PM
WYOMING ESPN2
6
6’
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8
PENN ST
12:00 PM
INDIANA BTN
5
GEORGIA
12:00 PM
KENTUCKY ESPN
11
LA TECH
12:00 PM
UAB
IOWA
12:00 PM
MINNESOTA ESPN2
4’
2’
10
10
3
1
1
4
153
154
155
156
157
158
149
150
151
152
143
144
145
146
147
148
139
140
141
142
159
160
125
126
127
128
MICHIGAN
3:30 PM TIME CHANGE
N’WESTERN ESPN2
GEORGIA TECH
12:30 PM TIME CHANGE
NC STATE
133
134
135
136
137
138
129
130
131
132
WISCONSIN
12:00 PM
PURDUE ESPNU
LA-MONROE
3:30 PM TIME CHANGE
APPALACHIAN ST
DUKE
12:30 PM TIME CHANGE
SYRACUSE
FLORIDA
7:30 PM TIME CHANGE
VANDERBILT SEC
LOUISVILLE
7:15 PM TIME CHANGE
BOST COLL ESPN2
OL PB
7
PK
5
17
2’
4
15
3
3
14
3
3
13
3
IOWA ST
3:30 PM TIME CHANGE
KANSAS
SOUTH ALABAMA
3:00 PM
ARKANSAS ST
TULANE
3:30 PM TIME CHANGE
HOUSTON ESPNU
GEORGIA ST
3:00 PM
TROY
UTSA
12:00 PM TIME CHANGE
RICE FSN
FLORIDA INT’L
3:30 PM
OLD DOMINION
WEST VIRGINIA
3:30 PM
TEXAS FS1
UCLA FS1
7:00 PM TIME CHANGE
WASHINGTON
5’
NL
17
7
11
3
4
4’
1
1
20
6
16
3
7
3
SMU
12:00 PM TIME CHANGE
TULSA CBSC
CONNECTICUT
3:30 PM at Yankee Stadium
ARMY CBSC
TEXAS A&M
3:30 PM
AUBURN CBS
11
3’
8
3
20 24
185
186
187
188
189
190
181
182
183
184
191
192
193
194
195
196
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
161
162
163
164
ALABAMA
8:00 PM TIME CHANGE
LSU CBS
165
166
167
168
BAYLOR
12:00 PM TIME CHANGE
OKLAHOMA FS1
VIRGINIA
6:30 PM TIME CHANGE
FLORIDA ST ESPN
UTEP
4:00 PM
W KENTUCKY
OL PB
6
4
19’
7’
1
10
16
1
169
170
171
172
WASHINGTON ST
4:00 PM
OREGON ST PAC-12
AIR FORCE
4:00 PM
UNLV
7’
6’
13
3
IDAHO
6:30 PM
SAN DIEGO ST
MARSHALL
7:00 PM
SOUTHERN MISS
FLA ATLANTIC
7:00 PM
NORTH TEXAS FCS
GA SOUTHERN
4:00 PM TIME CHANGE
TEXAS ST
COLORADO
8:00 PM TIME CHANGE
ARIZONA PAC-12
BOISE ST
7:00 PM
NEW MEXICO CBSC
HAWAII ESPNU
7:00 PM
COLORADO ST
21
NL
4
10
16
17
16’
17
25
3
14
10
13
20
OHIO ST
8:00 PM
MICHIGAN ST ABC
LA-LAFAYETTE
8:00 PM
NEW MEXICO ST
NOTRE DAME
3:30 PM TIME CHANGE
ARIZONA ST ABC
OREGON
10:00 PM TIME CHANGE
UTAH ESPN
KANSAS ST
7:30 PM TIME CHANGE
TCU FOX
2
16’
2
9’
6
3
11
3
24
1
OL PB
197
198
SAN JOSE ST
10:30 PM
FRESNO ST CBSC 3’ 7
PLAYBOOK SUBSCRIBERS: If you have not received your PLAYBOOK Weekend Update
Phone Number, please call 1.800.752.9266.
263
264
265
266
267
268
259
260
261
262
269
270
271
272
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
DALLAS
1:00 PM at London, Eng
JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI
1:00 PM
DETROIT
KANSAS CITY
1:00 PM
BUFFALO
SAN FRANCISCO
1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS
TENNESSEE
1:00 PM
BALTIMORE
PITTSBURGH
1:00 PM
NY JETS
ATLANTA
1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY
DENVER
4:05 PM
OAKLAND
ST. LOUIS
4:25 PM
ARIZONA
NY GIANTS
4:25 PM
SEATTLE
CHICAGO
8:30 PM
GREEN BAY NBC
273
274
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9
NL
3
1
3’
10’
5’
1
10’
7
9
7
8
3
6
13
7
8
6
6
7
6
13
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10
CAROLINA ESPN
8:40 PM
PHILADELPHIA
5’
NFL WEEK TEN BYES
17
HOUSTON, INDIANAPOLIS, MINNESOTA,
NEW ENGLAND, SAN DIEGO, WASHINGTON
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