Monday, June 16, 2014
8:30AM‐9:00AM Light continental breakfast (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
9:00AM‐9:15AM Welcome (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
9:15AM‐10:45AM Session 1B: DA Applications – Finance (Room 250)
9:15AM‐10:45AM Session 1A: Dynamic Programming Models (Room 240)
Risk Aversion, Information Acquisition and Technology Adoption
Canan Ulu (Georgetown University) and James Smith (Fuqua School of Business)
Sequential Replacement with Uncertain Population Distribution
Dharma Kwon (Uni. of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign) and Steven Lippman (UCLA Anderson School)
Impact of Bayesian Learning and Externality on Strategic Investment
Wenxin Xu (UIUC) and Anupam Agrawal (UIUC), Dharma Kwon (UIUC) Suresh Muthulingam (Cornell University)
Estimation and Management of Downside Risks in Project Portfolio Selection
Janne Kettunen (GW) and Ahti Salo (Aalto University)
A framework for strategic financial risk management
Jesus Rios (IBM)
Using Expert Assessments to Estimate Probability Distributions with Applications to Finance
Saurabh Bansal (Penn State University)
10:45AM‐11:15AM Coffee Break (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
11:15AM‐12:45PM Session 2B: DA Applications – Healthcare (Room 250)
11:15AM‐12:45PM Session 2A: Decision Analysis in Homeland Security and Disaster Management (Room 240)
A Prescriptive Multiattribute Utility Models for Disaster Response for Individuals
Richard John (USC) and Heather Rosoff (USC)
Adversarial Risk Analysis of the Multithreat Multisite Protection Problem
David Ríos Insua (Royal Academy of Sciences) and Javier Cano (Rey Juan Carlos University) and Ricardo Ortega and Michael Pellot (TMB)
Modeling public‐private partnerships in disaster management‐A sequential game with prospect utility
Jun Zhuang (University at Buffalo) and Peiqiu Guan (University at Buffalo) The Impact of Risk Profiling on Mammography Interpretation: Bias in Biopsy Decisions
Mehmet Ayvaci (UT Dallas) and Mehmet Ahsen (UT Dallas), Zahra Gharibi (SMU), Srinivasan Raghunathan (UT Dallas)
Using Decision Analysis to Regulate Medical Devices at the Food and Drug Administration
Telba Irony (FDA)
Benefit‐Risk Assessment in Human Drug Review
Sara Eggers (FDA)
12:45PM‐1:45PM Faculty Club, Leavey Center
1:45PM‐3:15PM Session 3B: DA Arcade (Room 250)
1:45PM‐3:15PM Session 3A: Behavioral Decision Making and Economics (Room 240)
Value of GCR Information: Cost Effective Reduction of Global Catastrophic Risks
Anthony Barrett (GCR Institute; ABS Consulting) and Seth D. Baum, (GCR Institute; Penn State University; Columbia University)
Algorithm Aversion: Forecasters Erroneously Avoid Algorithms After Seeing them Err
Cade Massey (University of Pennsylvania) and Berkeley Dietvorst (University of Pennsylvania), Joseph Simmons (University of Pennsylvania)
Prescriptive Behavioral Economics
Ralph Keeney (Fuqua School of Business)
A BAYESIAN EXPERT JUDGMENT MODEL TO DETERMINE LIFETIME DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION
Rene van Dorp (GW)
SMART Medical Technology Investment Decisions at Hospitals
Alba Rojas‐Cordova (Virginia Tech), Christian Wernz (Virginia Tech) and Marian Turowski (Virginia Tech)
Disclosure and Strategic Restraint: The Appropriateness of Bias in Medical and Business Contexts
Sunita Sah (Georgetown)
3:15PM‐3:45PM Break
3:45PM‐5:00PM Plenary ‐ Bob Winkler (Fuqua School of Business) (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
5:30PM‐6:30PM Posters & Reception (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
6:30PM‐9:00PM Dinner on your own (recommendations will be provided)
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
8:30AM‐9:00AM Light continental breakfast (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
9:00AM‐11:00AM Research Incubator 2 (Room 250)
9:00AM‐11:00AM Research Incubator 1 (Room 240)
Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared (Asa Palley, Duke)
The Theory of Games with Prospect Preferences (Philip Leclerc, VCU)
Exploring the Accuracy and Joint‐Distribution Approximations Given Partial Information (Luis Montiel, Utexas)
Ambiguity in choice over time (Jeeva Somasundaram, INSEAD)
Alternative Derivation of Expected Utility and Prospect Theory Using a Multi‐attribute Framework (David Vairo, VCU)
Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions with Probability Assessment Error (Robert Hammond, University of Texas at Austin)
A Prescriptive Multiattribute Model of Traveler Trade‐offs Related to Terrorism Risks (Kenneth Nguyen)
Two‐Stage Security Screening Strategies in the Face of Strategic Applicants, Congestions and Screening Errors (Cen Song, University at Buffalo)
Modeling and Validating Multi‐period, Multi‐type, and Multi‐target Attacker‐defender Games (Jing Zhang, University at Buffalo)
Interdependent networks and their investment inefficiencies: When network operators compete (Allison Reilly, Johns Hopkins University)
A Game‐Theoretic Framework for Economic Contagion (Jonathan Welburn, University of Wisconsin‐Madison)
11:00AM‐11:30AM Coffee Break (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
11:30AM‐1:00PM Session 4B: Foundations of Preferences and Utility (Room 250)
11:30AM‐1:00PM Session 4A: Foundations of Decision Analysis (Room 240)
Axiomatising Bayesian Decision Analysis in Parallel Small Worlds
Axiomatising
Bayesian Decision Analysis in Parallel Small Worlds
Simon French (University of Warwick)
Decision support from expert judgment using Bayesian networks.
Martine Barons (University of Warwick) and James Smith (University of Warwick)
Nuclear‐accident emergency management: evaluation with incomplete preference information
Nikolaos Argyris (University of Warwick) and Simon French (University of Warwick)
Regret theory: a new foundation
Regret
theory: a new foundation
Enrico Diecidue (INSEAD)
“Risk Aversion” is Mislabeled and Misleading
Robin Keller (UCI)
Handing Inequity averse preferences
Alec Morton (University of Strathclyde) and Nikolaos Argyris (University of Warwick) and Ozlem Karsu (LSE)
1:00PM‐2:00PM Lunch Faculty Club, Leavey Center
2:00PM‐3:30PM Session 5B: Implementation of Decision Analysis (Room 250)
2:00PM‐3:30PM Session 5A: Forecasting (Room 240)
Percentage Error, Relative Error, and the Combination of Forecasts
Victor Richmond Jose (Georgetown University)
Choosing a strictly proper scoring rule
Edgar Merkle (University of Missouri) and Mark Steyvers (UCI)
The Benefits of Eliciting, Evaluating, and Aggregating Forecasters’ Quantiles
Casey Lichtendahl (University of Virginia) and Yael Grushka‐Cockayne (University of Virginia), Bob Winkler (Fuqua School of Business)
An Approach for Elucidating Stakeholder Conflicts
Tobias Fasth (Stockholm University) and Aron Larsson (Stockholm University)
Sensitivity analysis for decision analysis with decision circuits
Debarun Bhattacharjya (IBM) and Ross Shachter (Stanford University)
Simulation for High‐dimensional Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Maker Preferences
Jay Simon (Naval Postgraduate School) and Kent Wall (Naval Postgraduate School)
3:30PM‐4:00PM Break
4:00PM‐5:30PM Session 6B: Implementation of Decision Analysis (Room 250)
4:00PM‐5:30PM Session 6A: Dynamic Programming Methods (Room 240)
A Lookahead Value Function Approximation Algorithm for Multi‐Stage Stochastic Optimization Problems
Soheil Shayegh (Georgia Institute of Technology) and Valerie Thomas (Georgia Institute of Technology)
Using Information Relaxations in Sequential Decision Problems
James E. Smith (Fuqua School of Business) and David Brown (Fuqua School of Business)
Decision Circuit Representation for Decision Analysis Problems
Ross Shachter (Stanford University) and Debarun Bhattacharjya (IBM)
Using Multi‐stakeholder Multi‐objective Decision Analysis to Manage a Change at Fortune 200 Bank
Edward Cook (VCU) and Jason Merrick (VCU)
When judgments alone are sufficient for a decision analysis model
Lawrence Phillips (LSE)
Applying Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis to Evaluate Proposed Humanitarian Assistance Projects
Matthew Bates (US Army Corps of Engineers) and Heather Bell (Pacific Disaster Center), Richard Curran (US Army Corps of Engineers), Igor Linkov (US Army Corps of Eng
5:30PM‐8:30PM Semi‐organized group dinners in Georgetown (sign‐up)
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
9:00AM‐10:30AM Session 7A: Behavioral Decision Making (Room 240)
8:30AM‐9:00AM Light continental breakfast and Conference Summary (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
9:00AM‐10:30AM Session 7B: Risk and Variability (Room 250)
Willingness to Give Advice and Some Factors that Influence It
Robin Dillon‐Merrill (Georgetown University)
Advice from Experience: Communicating Incomplete Information Incompletely
Daniel Benjamin (Fordham University) and David Budescu (Fordham University)
The Economics of Assertiveness in Persuasion
Luc Wathieu (Georgetown University) and Amir Grinstein (Ben‐Gurion University), Ann Kronrod (Michigan State University)
11:00AM‐12:30PM Session 8A: Judgment and Decision Making (Room 240)
A Study on the Influence of the Number of MTurkers on the Aggregate Output's Quality
Arthur Carvalho (U Waterloo) and Stanko Dimitrov (U Waterloo), Kate Larson (U Waterloo)
Risk Analysis and Decision Theory
Emanuele Borgonovo, Veronica Cappelli, Fabio Maccheroni, Massimo Marinacci (Bocconi University) , Curtis Smith (Idaho National Laboratories)
Detecting and Controlling Multivariate Dispersion in Data Mining: The case of Fat tail distribution
José‐Luis Guerrero‐Cusumano (Georgetown University)
10:30AM‐11:00AM Coffee Break (Fisher Colloquium 4th floor)
11:00AM‐12:30PM Session 8B: Combining Forecasts (Room 250)
The Performance of the Minimax Regret Rule Under a Linear Pairwise Setting
Chin Hon Tan (National University of Singapore) and Ruiwei Jiang (University of Arizona), Siqian Shen (University of Michigan)
Investigating online consumer decision making processes and outcomes
K.Nadia Papamichail (Manchester Business School) and Christopher P. Holland (Manchester Business School), Sahar Karimi (Edge Hill University)
Biases and Path Dependency in the Even Swaps Method
Tuomas Lahtinen (Aalto University) and Raimo Hämäläinen (Aalto University)
Trimming Overconfident Weak Learners
Yael Grushka‐Cockayne (University of Virginia) and Victor Richmond Jose (Georgetown University), Casey Lichtendahl (University of Virginia) Evaluating sequences of probabilistic forecasts
Eva Regnier (Naval Postgraduate School)
Aggregating Forecasts from Multiple Simulation Models
Jason Merrick (Virginia Commonwealth University)