Highlights of the New IPCC Report Gian-Kasper Plattner Head IPCC WGI TSU 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI Co-Chairs and TSU Team © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Key SPM Messages 19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages Summary for Policymakers ca. 14,000 Words 14 Chapters, >106 Words Atlas of Regional Projections 54,677 Review Comments by 1089 Experts 2010: 2009: 259 Authors Selected WGI Outline Approved 2 IPCC Working Group I Author Team 209 Lead Authors and 50 Review Editors from 39 countries Over 600 Contributing Authors from 32 countries IPCC Working Group I Reports Since 1990 Observation Understanding Future 5 Warming in the climate system is unequivocal Human influence on the climate system is clear Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions Observation What has changed? © IPCC 2013 Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990 Fig. SPM.1a Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.2 Fig. SPM.1b © IPCC 2013 Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C) Precipitation Trend (mm/yr per decade) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, [...] © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.3 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, [...] © IPCC 2013 Box 3.1, Fig. 1 Energy (1021 Joules) Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). Understanding Why has it changed? Observed Anthropogenic Aerosols © IPCC 2013 CO2, CH4, N2O Solar, Volcanic Internal Variability Fig. TS.10 Global mean warming since 1951 (°C) The observed warming 1951−2010 is approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C. Observed Anthropogenic Aerosols © IPCC 2013 CO2, CH4, N2O Solar, Volcanic Internal Variability Fig. TS.10 Global mean warming since 1951 (°C) It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.6 Human influence on the climate system is clear. Future How will it change? Fig. TS.15 © IPCC 2013 © IPCC 2013 Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005 Fig. SPM.7a Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850−1900 for all scenarios except RCP2.6. © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.9 RCP2.6 (2081-2100), likely range: RCP8.5 (2081-2100), likely range: 26 to 55 cm 45 to 82 cm Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2010 © IPCC 2013 Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Fig. SPM .10 © IPCC 2013 Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2100 Limit CO2-induced warming 1000 GtC © IPCC 2013 2°C Limit anthropogenic warming 800 GtC © IPCC 2013 2°C Cumulative CO2 emissions to date: about 515 GtC. © IPCC 2013 Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. RCP8.5 © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.8 RCP2.6 We have a choice. Communicating Climate through News Channels How to communicate key IPCC assessment findings through Weather Channels and Meteo News?: Need a “Weather ” Anchor Provide short scientific facts from the IPCC Assessment Use figures and headline statements from the WGI AR5 SPM Message in 1 minute plus 1 simple graphics Examples of “Weather ” Anchors for WGI AR5 (1) Atmospheric CO2 concentration: record levels (2) Annual temperature updates: non-record years (3) Hiatus – Where has all the heat gone? (4) Warming, Greenland melting and sea level rise (5) Extreme Temperatures: Eastern Europe 2010 Example 1: Record CO2 concentration levels The World Meteorological Organization’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, Press Release November 2013 “The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2012, continuing an upward and accelerating trend which is driving climate change and will shape the future of our planet for hundreds and thousands of years.” Example 1: Record CO2 concentration levels 2013 +40% (Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA) The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Example 2: Annual temperature updates WMO Provisional Statement on Status of Climate in 2013, Press Release November 2013 “The year 2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since modern records began in 1850” © IPCC 2013 Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990 Example 2: Annual temperature updates Annual average0.60.40.20.00.2−−0.4−0.6 Fig. SPM.1a © IPCC 2013 Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990 Example 2: Annual temperature updates Fig. SPM.1a All ten of the warmest years have occurred since 1997, with 2010 and 2005 effectively tied for the warmest year on record […] Ch2 Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. © IPCC 2013 Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990 Example 3: Hiatus - Where has all the heat gone? Fig. SPM.1a […] the rate of warming over the past 15 years […] is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 […] Example 3: Hiatus - Where has all the heat gone? © IPCC 2013 Box 3.1, Fig. 1 Energy (1021 Joules) Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). Example 3: Hiatus - Where has all the heat gone? © IPCC 2013 Box 3.1, Fig. 1 Energy (1021 Joules) Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, climate system, accounting[...] for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise NSIDC, Thomas Mote, University of Georgia Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise Fig. TS.3 Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise © IPCC 2013 Ice loss from Glaciers 226 (±60%) Gt yr-1 (1993-2003) Greenland 215 (±25%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011) Antarctica 147 (±50%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011) 100 Gt yr-1 of ice loss corresponds to 0.28 mm yr-1 of global mean sea level rise Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. Fig. TS.3 Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise © IPCC 2013 Ice loss from Glaciers 226 (±60%) Gt yr-1 (1993-2003) Greenland 215 (±25%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011) Antarctica 147 (±50%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011) 100 Gt yr-1 of ice loss corresponds to 0.28 mm yr-1 of global mean sea level rise NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, based on MODIS land surface temperature data Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat: Eastern Europe 2010 Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat: Eastern Europe 2010 (1500–2010) (Barriopedro et al., 2011) Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat Emissions Scenarios A1B, A2: A 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions 10 more frequent Conclusions Communication of climate facts through Weather and News Channels provides a unique opportunity the widest possible audience access on a daily basis Activate Weather and News Channels for Climate Facts WGI Co-Chairs and TSU would be interested to assist in the preparation of background material from IPCC WGI AR5 that could be widely used (contact: plattner@ipcc.unibe.ch) Further Information www.climatechange2013.org © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude