Highlights of the New IPCC Report
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Head IPCC WGI TSU
259 Authors from 39 Countries
WGI Co-Chairs and TSU Team
© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Key SPM Messages
19 Headlines
on less than 2 Pages
Summary for Policymakers
ca. 14,000 Words
14 Chapters, >106 Words
Atlas of Regional Projections
54,677 Review Comments
by 1089 Experts
2010:
2009:
259 Authors Selected
WGI Outline Approved
2
IPCC Working Group I Author Team
209 Lead Authors and 50 Review Editors from 39 countries
Over 600 Contributing Authors from 32 countries
IPCC Working Group I Reports Since 1990
Observation
Understanding
Future
5
Warming in the climate system
is unequivocal
Human influence on the climate system is clear
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
Observation
What has changed?
© IPCC 2013
Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990
Fig. SPM.1a
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer
at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest
30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.2
Fig. SPM.1b
© IPCC 2013
Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)
Precipitation Trend (mm/yr per decade)
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, [...]
© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.3
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, [...]
© IPCC 2013
Box 3.1, Fig. 1
Energy (1021 Joules)
Ocean warming dominates the
increase in energy stored in the
climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy
accumulated between 1971 and
2010 (high confidence).
Understanding
Why has it changed?
Observed
Anthropogenic
Aerosols
© IPCC 2013
CO2, CH4, N2O
Solar, Volcanic
Internal Variability
Fig. TS.10
Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
The observed warming 1951−2010 is
approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C.
Observed
Anthropogenic
Aerosols
© IPCC 2013
CO2, CH4, N2O
Solar, Volcanic
Internal Variability
Fig. TS.10
Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
It is extremely likely that human influence has
been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.6
Human influence on the
climate system is clear.
Future
How will it change?
Fig. TS.15
© IPCC 2013
© IPCC 2013
Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005
Fig. SPM.7a
Global surface temperature change for the end of the
21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to
1850−1900 for all scenarios except RCP2.6.
© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.9
RCP2.6 (2081-2100), likely range:
RCP8.5 (2081-2100), likely range:
26 to 55 cm
45 to 82 cm
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2010
© IPCC 2013
Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean
surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Fig. SPM .10
© IPCC 2013
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2100
Limit CO2-induced warming
1000 GtC
© IPCC 2013
2°C
Limit anthropogenic warming
800 GtC
© IPCC 2013
2°C
Cumulative CO2 emissions to date: about 515 GtC.
© IPCC 2013
Limiting climate change will require substantial and
sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
RCP8.5
© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.8
RCP2.6
We have a choice.
Communicating
Climate through
News Channels
How to communicate key IPCC assessment findings
through Weather Channels and Meteo News?:

Need a “Weather ” Anchor

Provide short scientific facts from the IPCC Assessment

Use figures and headline statements from the WGI AR5 SPM

Message in 1 minute plus 1 simple graphics
Examples of “Weather ” Anchors for WGI AR5
(1) Atmospheric CO2 concentration: record levels
(2) Annual temperature updates: non-record years
(3) Hiatus – Where has all the heat gone?
(4) Warming, Greenland melting and sea level rise
(5) Extreme Temperatures: Eastern Europe 2010
Example 1: Record CO2 concentration levels
The World Meteorological Organization’s annual
Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, Press Release November 2013
“The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
reached a new record high in 2012, continuing an
upward and accelerating trend which is driving
climate change and will shape the future of our
planet for hundreds and thousands of years.”
Example 1: Record CO2 concentration levels
2013
+40%
(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
Example 2: Annual temperature updates
WMO Provisional Statement on Status of Climate in 2013,
Press Release November 2013
“The year 2013 is currently on course to be among
the top ten warmest years since modern records
began in 1850”
© IPCC 2013
Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990
Example 2: Annual temperature updates
Annual average0.60.40.20.00.2−−0.4−0.6
Fig. SPM.1a
© IPCC 2013
Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990
Example 2: Annual temperature updates
Fig. SPM.1a
All ten of the warmest years have occurred since 1997, with 2010
and 2005 effectively tied for the warmest year on record […] Ch2
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer
at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
© IPCC 2013
Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961-1990
Example 3: Hiatus - Where has all the heat gone?
Fig. SPM.1a
[…] the rate of warming over the past 15 years […] is smaller
than the rate calculated since 1951 […]
Example 3: Hiatus - Where has all the heat gone?
© IPCC 2013
Box 3.1, Fig. 1
Energy (1021 Joules)
Ocean warming dominates the
increase in energy stored in the
climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy
accumulated between 1971 and
2010 (high confidence).
Example 3: Hiatus - Where has all the heat gone?
© IPCC 2013
Box 3.1, Fig. 1
Energy (1021 Joules)
Ocean warming dominates the
increase in energy stored in the
Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal,
climate system,
accounting[...]
for
more than 90% of the energy
accumulated between 1971 and
2010 (high confidence).
Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC,
and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory
Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise
NSIDC, Thomas Mote, University of Georgia
Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise
Fig. TS.3
Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise
© IPCC 2013
Ice loss from Glaciers
226 (±60%) Gt yr-1 (1993-2003)
Greenland 215 (±25%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011)
Antarctica 147 (±50%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011)
100 Gt yr-1 of ice loss corresponds to 0.28 mm yr-1 of global mean sea level rise
Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level
rise will very likely exceed that observed during
1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming
and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice
sheets.
Fig. TS.3
Example 4: Greenland melting and sea level rise
© IPCC 2013
Ice loss from Glaciers
226 (±60%) Gt yr-1 (1993-2003)
Greenland 215 (±25%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011)
Antarctica 147 (±50%) Gt yr-1 (2002-2011)
100 Gt yr-1 of ice loss corresponds to 0.28 mm yr-1 of global mean sea level rise
NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen,
based on MODIS land surface temperature data
Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat: Eastern Europe 2010
Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat: Eastern Europe 2010
(1500–2010)
(Barriopedro et al., 2011)
Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat
Example 5: Extreme Summer Heat
Emissions Scenarios A1B, A2:
A 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a
1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century
in most regions
 10  more frequent
Conclusions
Communication of climate facts through Weather and News
Channels provides

a unique opportunity

the widest possible audience

access on a daily basis
 Activate Weather and News Channels for Climate Facts
WGI Co-Chairs and TSU would be interested to assist in the
preparation of background material from IPCC WGI AR5 that could be
widely used (contact: plattner@ipcc.unibe.ch)
Further Information
www.climatechange2013.org
© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude