DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL & ECONOMIC SCIENCE
POE 422
CONTEMPORARY
INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS
Instructor: David Law
Office Phone: 545-6000/x.5215
Term: Winter 1997
Class: Mon: 1435-1615 (16351710) & Wed 1245- 1330
Scenario-Planning Workshops:
Wed as scheduled from 1445-1745
E-mail: dl12@post.queensu.ca
Office Hours: on appointment
OVERVIEW FOR SECOND TERM
Lectures, Seminars & Scenario Planning
6.1
READINGS
Realism, Liberalism and Other Isms
J. Naisbitt, Table of Contents,
Megatrends,
J. Naisbitt, Introduction, Re-inventing the
Corporation
P. Kennedy, “The Future of the Nation
st
State”, Preparing for the 21 Century
13.1
&
15.1
The New Regionalism
B.W. Wilkinson, “Regional Trading blocs:
Fortress Europe vs Fortress America”
S. Young, “Globalism and Regionalism:
Complements or Competitors?”
H,.Soesastro, “Implications of the Postcold War Politico-Security Environment
for the Political Economy”
Hurrell, “Explaining the Resurgence of
Regionalism in World Politics”
20.1
&
22.1
Geoeconomics, Trade & Power
L.D’Andrea Tyson, Who’s Bashing Whom?
Trade Conflict in High Technology
Industries
Chapters 1.2 & 7
James Fallows, Looking at the Sun,
Chapter 4
27.1
&
Small and Big Arms Proliferation
D.Ball, Arms and Affluence, International
Security, Vol.18, #3, 1993/94
&
8.1
29.1
E.Kier & J. Mercer, Setting Precedents in
Anarchy, vol.20, no.4, 1996
3.2
&
5.2
Radical Religious Movements
G. Fuller, “Islamic Fundamentalism” in
Betts
A. Pierre & W. Quandt, “Algeria’s War on
Itself”, Foreign Policy, Summer ’95
Davidson & Rees-Moog, “Muhammad
Replaces Marx”, The Great Reckoning
12.2
SCENARIO PLANNING EXERCISE ON
FUTURES OF THE CANADIAN MILITARY
(SCENPLAN): Methodology, Focus,
Contextual Questions,
Input: The Canadian Military: a
stocktaking of current roles, missions,
resources and expectations
ARTICLE ON CANADIAN MILITARY:T.B.C.
L. Wilkinson, “How to Build Scenarios”,
Wired, 1995 Special Edition on “The
Future of the Future”
E.Luttwak, “Post-Heroic Armies”, Foreign
Affairs, July/August 1996
D.Bercuson, Significant Incident, Chapters
3,4 &5
17.2
&
19.2
Mass Movement of People
Water & Other Resource Wars
Weiner, “Security, Stability and Migration
in Betts
B.Posen, “:Military Responses to Refugee
Disasters”, International Security ,
Summer 1996.
J. Cooley, “The War over Water” in Betts
T. Dixon, “Environmental Changes as
Causes of Acute Conflict” in Betts
J.Matthews, “Calm down and Save the
Fish”,
IHT, 12 April 1995.
26.2
SCENPLAN 2: Driving Forces
Input: Futures of Work
J.Rifkin, “After Work”, Utne Reader
E.B.Kapstein, “Workers & the World
Economy”, Foreign Affairs, May-June
1996. Responses in the July/August issue
“The End of the Job” Fortune, 19
September 1994.
3.37.3
Break Week
12.3
SCENPLAN 3: Scenario Scaffolding
Input: Futures of Governance
J-M Guehenno, La Fin de la Democratie
E.Hobsbawn, The Age of Extremes,
Chapter XIX, “Towards the Millennium”
“Welfare, Inc”, Economist, 25 January
1997.
19.3
SCENPLAN 4: Story Development Input:
The Shape of States to Come
(Draft scenarios to be prepared by POE
422 students for distribution to other
participants by 2 April)
24.3
War & Democratisation
Crossborder Crime
NB Lecture normally taking place on
26.3 is rescheduled to follow class on
24.3
st
“Anticipating the Challenges of the 21
Century.” A Scenario Project with the
European Commission, October 1996
(handout).
R.Rosecrance, “The Virtual State”,
Foreign Affairs, July/August 1996
K. Ohmae, The End of the Nation-State
E.Mansfield & J.Snyder, “Democratisation
& the Danger of War”, International
Security, Summer 1995
“Happy 21st Century Voters!: a Survey of
Democracy” Economist,21 December
1996
P.Williams, “Transnational Criminal
Organisations” in Roberts
R.Leiken, “Controlling the Global
Corruption Epidemic”, Foreign Policy,
Winter 1996.
S.D.Porteous, “ The Threat from
Transnational Crime: an Intelligence
Perspective”. Commentary, a CSIS
publication, Winter 1996
1.4
&
3.4
NGOs in International Decision-Making:
The Experience of the ICRC
P.Spiro,” New Global Communities…” in
Roberts
Twenty-sixth International Conference of
the Red Cross and Red Crescent,
Resolutions 1-5 & Annexes 1-6
9.4
SCENPLAN 5: Policy Implications
Input: Cyberwars
Molander, Riddile & Wilson, “Strategic
Information Warfare”,
www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR661
Arquila & Ronfeldt, “ The Advent of
War”,
www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR789
E. A. Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare”,
Foreign Affairs, March/April 1996.
A. Rathmell, “Network in the Gulf”,
Jane’s Intelligence Review, January 1997.
14.4
&
16.4
Week
of 22.4
The Issues of Intervention
The New Peacekeeping Agenda
FINAL EXAM
T. Weiss, “The UN & Civil Wars” in
Roberts
B. Blechman., ”The Intervention
Dilemma ”in Roberts
J. Ruggie, “Peacekeeping & US Interests”
in Roberts
“C. Krauthammer, ”Why Peacekeeping
won’t Work?” Reader’s Digest, March
1996.