Sampling with Partial Replacement Extended To Include Growth Projections Mike Bokalo, Stephen J. Titus, and Douglas P. Wiens ABSTRACT: The originaltheoryof Samplingwith Partial Replacement (SPR) is modifiedto incorporate growth model projections of the unmatched plot data on the initial measurement. The Modified Samplingwith Partial Replacement(MSPR)theory is illustratedby estimatinggrowthand current volumeusingsimulated plot data. In additionto the assumptionsrequiredbySPR, MSPRrequiresthat the growth projection errors be random and have a mean of zero. If these assumptions are met, the modified theory improvesthe precisionof the volume and growth estimators over the originalSPR estimator. FOR.SC•.42(3):328-334. Additional key words: Continuousforest inventory,tree-growthmodeling,forest stand projections, volume estimation, growth estimation. resolvedthe issueof appropriateestimatorsfor variance whensamplesaresmall.Van Deusen(1989) formulatedthe SPRestimators usingmatrixnotationandincorporated addltivity constraints andestimators for components of growth. Newtonet al. (1974) developedmultivariateestimators for samplingwith partialreplacement. This extension allowed for the simultaneousestimationin the change of several are and Cunia (1962) presented atheory of sam- plingwith partialreplacement (SPR).The basic aim of the theorywasto provideestimators for currentstandvolumeandgrowthwhichimprovedtheprecisionof the estimates by takingadvantage of thecorrelation between repeated measurements. Theseestimators werebased on the theory of weightedmeans (Brownlee 1965) and provided abasisforcombining unmatched temporary sample plot (TSP) datafrom two occasions with remeasured permanentsampleplot (PSP)data.The improvement in precision camefirst from a directincreasein samplesizeandsecond fromexploitingthecorrelation betweenthematchedPSPand the unmatched TSP on both occasions. Sincetheoriginalpaper,severalextensions of theoriginal theoryhaveappeared in theliterature.Cunia(1965)extended the theoryof SPR by usingmultipleregression estimates. Thisextensionshowedthatusingmultiplelinearregression to estimatethesecond occasion parameter wasmoreefficient thanusingthesimplelinearestimates, asin theoriginalSPR theory.Cunia and Chevrou(1969) extendedthe theoryof SPR to acceptmeasurements on three or more occasions. Scott (1984) clarified the presentationof SPR theory and forest characteristics for two successive forest measure- ments.Theprocedureis considered moreefficientbecauseit takesadvantageof the inherentcorrelationthat existsbetweendifferentforestcharacteristics. HansenandHahn(1983) described theuseof growthprojectionsimulators in forest inventoryusingdoublesamplingfor regression estimation Hansen(1990)combined theuseof agrowthmodelwithseveral sampling methods includinga variationof SPR.Thispaper, independently of Hansen'swork,extendsthemathematical and statisticalpresentation of the SPR theoryby incorporaUng growthprojections forthetemporary plots.It isassumed thatthe growthsimulation modelprovides unbiased estimates of future volume,subjectto additiverandomerrorsothatthe initialand projected valuesarenotperfectlycorrelated. An application of thisapproach ispresented usingsimulated plotdata. Mike Bokalo is Resource Analyst, Forest Management Division, Land and Forest Services, Alberta EnvironmentalProtection, 8th Floor Bramalea Building,9920-108 Street, Edmonton,AlbertaT5K 2M4; StephenJ. Titus is Professor,Departmentof RenewableResources,Universityof Alberta, T6G 2H1 [authorto whom all correspondenceshouldbe addressed:(403) 492-2899, Fax (403) 492-4323]; and DouglasP. Wiens is Professor, Departmentof MathematicalSciences,Universityof Alberta,T6G 2H1. Researchsupportedby a grantfromthe NaturalSciencesand Engineenng Research Council of Canada. Acknowledgments: We are verygratefulto Mr. DaveJ. Morgan,Mr. Tom Lakustaand Mr. RobertHeldof the ForestManagementDivision,Landand Forest Service, Alberta EnvironmentalProtection, for their valuable help and cooperation. This paper is based on work conducted while M. Bokalo was a M.Sc. student and receivingfinancial assistance from the Alberta Forest Development Research Trust Fund and the Department of Renewable Resources, Universityof Alberta. Manuscript received December 1, 1994. Accepted October 10, 1995. 328 ForestSctence 42(3)1996 Copyright¸ 1996 by the Societyof AmericanForesters The Modified Sampling with Partial Replacement Procedure (MSPR) 13xl z = COV[X•,Z•]/O2(Zu) andO•xl z = 111•XIZ112 Notationfor the developmentof estimatorsof current volume,growth,and variancesfollows that of Ware and Cunia(1962). Thenamingconventions to derivetheMSPR estimatorsare presentedin Table 1. The samplevolumes from thefirst occasionarealgebraicallyrepresented by the letterX. The samplevolumesfromthesecondoccasionare representedalgebraicallyby the letter Y. Unmatchedtemporarysampleplot volumesfrom the initial occasionare Thesearethe slopeandinterceptcoefficients of the linear regressions OfXrn(dependent) on Yrn(independent) andXuon Zu.The residualvariancesaroundtheregression linesare: represented by Xu. New TSP on the secondoccasion are represented by Yn'Remeasured (matched)PSPdataare O:XlZ = E[{X•,- O•xl z - [SxlzZ•, }:] = 0• (X•,)(1 - p:•,)(2) algebraicallyrepresented onthefirst occasionby anIrnand onthesecond occasion by a Ym. The new sourceof data for the MSPR procedureis a predictionfrom a growth modeland is representedalge- braicallyby thesymbolZu.Theinputdatafor thegrowth modelisthesameTSPdataXurepresenting theunmatched data on the initial occasion. Since the TSP data are as- sumedto be a randomsamplefrom thepopulation,andthe growthmodelis assumedto provideunbiasedprojections, the model predictionsare random,unbiasedestimatesof the populationstandvolumeon the secondoccasion.It is also assumedthat the growth model used to make the predictionsis an individualtree growthmodelcomposed of relationships derivedfrom independent data.As will be seenin the developmentof estimators,the magnitudeof unbiasedrandomerrorsin thegrowthmodelis reflectedin the variance Current o:xlr= E[{Xm- O•xl r - [3xlrYm}: ] = o:(Xm)(1 --P:m) (1) wherePmandPuarethecoefficients of correlation between XmandYmandbetweenXu andZurespectively. Note that any linear combinationof the five sample averages canbe writtenasan equivalentlinearcombination containingYm,Yn,Zu and the differences(residuals) •m --•xIrFmand•'• -•x,z•. Weconsider these differences, rather thanthesample averages •'mand•'• themselves, for two reasons: Thesedifferences and the averagesYm,Yn,Z•' are pairwiseuncorrelated. This is mathematically convenient, since their variancesare then additive. It also allowsfor straightforward interpretations of thecontributions of the individual terms. See the discussion at of the estimators. Volume the end of this section. Estimator The MSPR volume estimator • combination of the five Inthepresence of Fmandju theaverages '•m and •'• contain additional information about112only MSPR is a linear sample averages throughthe differences.This explainswhy the differencesare thosefrom regressions of Xm andXu on Ym andZurespectively,ratherthanfrom YmandZu onXm and Xu. Recall that in Ware and Cunia (1962), the resultsareexpressed in termsof theregression of Ymon Xm.Althoughexpressions analogous totheapproach of Ware and Cunia (1962) can be constructedfor the MSPR approach,they are much more cumbersome thanthosepresented here. Xm,Xu, Ym, Ynand•u. Thecoefficients aretobechosen so that the estimatorhasa minimumvariance,subjectto the requirement thatit be unbiased. Let gl and112 be thetrue mean volumeson the first and secondoccasionsrespectively, so that E(.,•m)=e(•,)=111 ande(Fm)=e(•n)=E(•,)=g 2 Define •XIY= COV[Xm, Ytn]/lJ2(ytn) andO•xl r = gl - [•xlr112 Upon adjustingthe coefficientsof an arbitrarylinear combinationof thesethreeaveragesandtwo differencesfor unbiasedness, we seethat it is sufficientto consideronly estimators of the form Table 1. The sample deta sourcesfor MSPR sampling. Initial Unmatched TSP MatchedPSP occasion X•l,Xu2 ..... X•i ..... X•u X•l,Xm2 ..... Xmi..... X•m Second occasion MatchedModel MatchedPSP Unmatched TSP Forest Sctence 42(3)1996 329 1 (3) 1 1 (•xlz- •xlr)2 A- ij2(Fm ) •J2-(Yn)O2-(Zu)__ 02xlz(7) •j2xl¾ +_ m IJ2XIY IJ2XIZ m Theminimum-variance volumeestimator isthengivenby (3), (6), and (7). The minimumvarianceis obtained by substituting (6) into(5) andsimplifying, andis u wherethefollowingrestrictionensures unbiasedness: (gl +•.•_2•+ G•3 + mino2(FMSeR) = 1/A C•4(•XIZ -1 IJ2(Fm) IJ'(gn)02'•u) O2xlr O2xlz m (8) (4) Theestimate in (3) nowadmitsthefollowinginterpreta- tion.Thefoursummands areuncorrelated estimates of g2 u Equation(3) requiresa little explanation. Whenwefirst approachedthe minimizationproblem,we carriedit out withoutdividingthemeansby theirvariances. Uponnoticingthattheresultingestimatewasof theformgivenin (3), we choseto start from this point, in order to make the resultingexpressions easierto present.Thereis of course no lossof generalityin this approach,sincethe variances couldhavebeenabsorbedinto the alphas,at the costof some additional complexity of presentation.Note also that, in Equations(3) and (4), we are not assuming that regression-based estimatorsare to be used.Rather,we are merelypointingoutthatanyunbiasedlinearcombination weightedby termsproportional to theinversesof theirvanances.The final summand is weightedby the difference betweenthe regression slopesandsohasa moredominant influence ontheestimate whenthisdifference islarge. Ofcourse F•se•aspresented above isnotyeta statistic, thecoefficients must beestimated. Forthis, letS2(ym), S2(Yn)' andS2(Zu) bethesample variances. Let•xlr,•xlrand S2xlr be the slope,intercept,and residualmeansquare resulting froma regression of Xmi .....Xmm on Y,n• ..... Ymm Define •xlz,6txlz andS2xlz analogously. Then ofthefiveaverages ( Xm,Xu,Ym, Ynand•u) canbewritten in this form. By(4) wehaveE[FMSeR ] = it2. Wearethentochoose =ax,y (gl..... C•4 SOasto minimize andY•se• isconsistently estimated by (5) ^ 1 (9) m subjectto (4). Van Deusen (1989) presentsthe solution to the SPR problemusingmatrixnotation.Ourapproach isanalogous to theirssincetheoptimizationgoalis thesame,butretains the benefitthatformulasderivedfor the estimators provide a link to the originalpresentationof Ware andCunia (1962). In addition,our notationsimplifiesthe original presentation andallowsinterpretation of thecomponents u where m+,,2_•77,,, +,,2.•_•,. •(•x,z-•x,r) 2 (10) •=S2--•--•m) S(Yn) S(Zu) S2xlr S2xlz m u of the estimators. Thisformulation(5) is a standard variationalproblem whosesolutionis obtainedwith theaid of Lagrangemul- Three observations can be made about this formulation of the current volume estimator: tipliers. The solutionis 1. Theequations abovemayalsobe appliedto theoriginal O('l=(g2=•3 =I/A andO•4 ={•XIZ-•xlr}/A where 330 (6) SPRproblem.Theythenyieldexpressions differentfrom, butequivalent tothosein WareandCunia(1962).Forth•s, note thatif Zu•.....Zuu arenotavailable, then•xlz=0, ForestSctence 42(3)1996 Oq •xlz = •u andS2xlz = S2(Xu). Equations (9)and(10) above then allow formulation oftheoriginal SPR(•seR) O• 2 O• 3 O(Fm) O•4•xIyO•5•xlz +-- rn estimate as =1 u and •4 •..•_5 = O2x,--•+O•lZ1 S2(y") S2xlr +S2(X•) / (11) m tt Subjectto theseconditionswe areto minimize Asp •=S2(Ym )+S2(Yn--• +S•, rqS2(Xu ) (12) m tt Note that1/},sp • istheestimated variance ofcurrent volume.For smallsamplesizes,a correctionfactormay also be appliedto the estimatefor varianceof the current volume as describedby Scott (1984). As samplesizes increase,theeffectof thecorrectionfactorbecomes negligible. Thesolutionismostconveniently described in termsof the two quantities 1 1 1 B-•ij2(•m +02"•n) -} If itmaybeassumed thato2(ym) = •2(yn),thenS2(ym) andS2(yn) mayeach bereplaced bythepooled estimate S2(Y)= {(m- 1)S 2(Ym) +(n- 1)S 2(Yn) }/(m+n- 2) u [. m)[, u ) A similar remark applies to o2(Xm) ando2(X.). 3 From (7) and(8) we seethatincorporating information fromZu•..... Z.. will resultin a decrease in thevariance of andis givenby theestimator, relative tothatof Fse R, insofar aso2(2.) is small, [•x,z-•x,r] islarge, oro•,z issmall relative to (Z1 = 0{,2 •2 (X,). Thislatterrequirement holds if XuandZuare highlycorrelated. Growth Estimator The derivation of theMSPRgrowthestimator GMsv• parallelsthatof thevolumeestimator.We writetheestimator (Z 4=lB+ (1 -13xlz)(1 -13xlz } in the form O•z IC 1,t --(Z4 ij•fl y (Z5 m B-+ o•r /C m where,in orderthat E[G•tsv•]=g2-gl, the coefficients mustsatisfytheconditions The minimum variance is Forest Science 42(3)1996 331 samplingmethodhadthe lowestestimatedvariance(0.806). The PSP aloneandthe originalSPR modelyieldedlarger estimatedvariances,1.20 and 1.15 respectively.The 5 yr growthestimates variedconsiderably withtheMSPR method I (1 -•xir) 2(1 -•xiz) 2t min 02(•use•)= B• o•lr + O•lz /C estimating growth at6.15m3/ha, PSPat5.45m3/ha, andthe original SPRat5.78m3/ha. m Theparameters whichappearin theseexpressions maybe Discussion estimated in the same manner as was described for the volume estimator, by replacingparameters by sampleestimates. This The new MSPR approachimprovesthe precisionof current meanvolumeestimatesandgrowthestimatesoverthe originalSPR procedure.It alsoresolvesthe difficultiesin estimating thecorrelation coefficient, atopicthathasbeenthe focusof severalpapers,Scott(1984), Titus(1981), afterthe originalpaperwaspublished byWareandCunia(1962).The newapproach removestheassumption thatthevariances from thedifferentdatasources, representing a givenpointin time, areequal.However,thenewMSPR requirestheassumption thatgrowthprojectionsareunbiased. results inaconsistent estimate •MS?R of UMS?R' An Illustrative Example An application of themodifiedMSPR theoryis presented usingsimulated plot data.Additionalestimates usingtraditional approaches are also includedfor comparison.The estimators selected for thecomparison alongwith a descriptionof thedatasources theyutilizeis presented in Table2. A completelistingof thedataandsummarystatistics used in theillustration arepresented in Table3. Theunmatched plot dataconsisted of 15TSPrepresenting theinitialoccasion (Xu) and 16 TSP for the secondoccasion(Yn).The matchedplots wererepresented byeightPSPonbothoccasions (XmandYm). Thegrowthmodeldata(Zu)consisted of 15plotsobtained by projecting theunmatched TSP (Xu)5 yr to thesecond occa- Increased The precisionwill differ betweenthedifferentestimators becauseof thevariationin thedifferentsampledatasets,the correlation of the matched PSP data, the correlation between Xu andZu, andtheproportion of matched andunmatched plots.In thisexample,thetraditionalmethods(TSP andPSP) utilizeonlysamples takenfromthesecond occasion, therefore the numberof samplesis relativelysmallcomparedto the MSPR procedures. In otherapplications, thesizeof samples wouldlikelybe muchlarger.Furthermore, thesesamples are independent, and thereis no covarianceterm to reducethe variance.The originalSPRhasa largersamplesizebecause data is incorporatedfrom both occasions.In addition,the matched PSPdataishighlycorrelated, andexploitingthisfact sion. All of the TSP and PSP used in the illustration were simulatedto representthe typicalrelationships that would exist under normal conditions. Current Precision Volume The current mean volume estimates and their estimated variancesfor the five procedures[with both pooled and separate estimates of o2(ym)ando2(yn)]arepresented in Table4. The MSPR samplingmethodhad the lowestestimatedvariance(35.13). The threemoretraditionalmethods, results in a decrease in the variance of the estimator. The MSPR approach increases the samplesizeby addingmore samples(dueto growthprojections of theTSP) onthesecond occasion. Also,theTSPprojected by agrowthmodelallowfor anadditional reduction in thevariance,againbyexploitingthe correlationbetweenthe initial andprojectedvolumes. TSP alone, PSP alone, and a combination of TSP and PSP, yieldedlargerestimated variances, 106.44,104.60,and57.67 respectively. The originalSPR modelperformedconsiderably betterthan the traditionalmethodswith a varianceof 35.59, but not as well as the MSPR model. The mean volume estimatesfor TSP alone, PSP alone, both TSP and PSP, the If all assumptions are met, then sincethe MSPR model containstheothermodelsconsideredhere(SPR, PSP,etc.)the originalSPR, and the MSPR were 254.70, 263.70, 257.70, minimum-variance MSPR estimatesmustnecessarily have smallervariances thantheestimates constructed usingthese othermethods.This occursas a consequence of the mathematicalminimization process andtheadditionof thegrowth 257.61,and257.18m3/ha, respectively. All meanvolume estimates areveryclosewiththeexception of thePSP,which areslightlyhigherthantheothermethods. Growth estimates asanotherestimate of currentvolume(Pa)-The The meangrowthestimates andtheirestimated variances for thefive procedures arepresented in Table5. The MSPR reductionin variancemay,or maynot,belarge,ascanbeseen fromexaminingthetermsthatmakeupthevarianceestimator. Table 2. Number of plots and setupling methods for the example data. Volumeestimation Numberof plots sampling method X. X• Y• -- TSP PSP --- --- TSP and PSP -- -- Original SPR 15 8 Modified 15 8 332 SPR ForestSctence 42(3)1996 Y• Z• 8 16 -- --- 8 16 8 16 8 16 Growthestimation Total Numberof plots sampling method X. X• Y• Yn Z• Total 16 8 ....... ....... -- 24 PSP -- 8 8 -- -- 16 -- 47 Original SPR 15 8 8 16 -- 47 15 62 Modified 15 8 8 16 15 62 SPR Table 3. Dete end essociated summsry statistics for the example deta TSP time 1 PSP time 1 PSP time 2 (X.) (X.) (L) Volume Plot no. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 (m3/ha) 228.33 172.32 322.79 248.97 294.52 195.02 282.92 242.88 308.79 244.20 262.82 252.47 227.72 195.90 245.19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Plot no. 1786.21 S}m 927.34 119.08 258.25 Plot no. (mVha) 232.10 175.70 326.40 276.70 297.80 203.10 287.50 247.10 315.60 252.50 272.50 259.80 230.90 200.60 251.70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 235.85 326.57 183.65 240.45 304.92 268.73 246.14 210.66 231.68 297.44 242.24 309.44 224.84 291.31 206.72 254.54 Fm 263.70 •u 255.32 •n 254.70 S•m 836.83 •z. 1826.92 $•2• 1703.06 104.60 S•Zu 121.80 S_2 Yn S• Ym 115.92 Volume (mVha) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 •m Plot no. (mVha) 219.00 281.00 290.60 270.00 240.00 234.00 277.00 298.00 213.00 278.40 286.70 266.00 230.00 225.89 276.00 290.00 248.32 (rn) Volume Volume (mVha) TSP time 2 (Zu) Volume Plot no. Model time 2 106.44 cov(XmYm) 877.30 cov(XuZu ) 1794.55 r 0.9959 The estimatedvariancesmay of coursenotbe orderedin this way,dueto samplingvariationin theestimates of thecoefficients. If the assumptionsare not met, then the estimatesmay be biased. In the illustrative example, the PSP showed higher volume (263.70) and lower growth (5.45) comparedto othermethods.This occurrencecouldbe a result of samplingbias, such as intentionallyplacing PSP in moreproductive,fully stockedstands.If thesenonrandom PSP alone are used to estimate volume or growth, the precision maybehigh,butbiasis present.TheMSPR procedurelowersthe estimatedvolume(256.03) andincreasesthe growthestimates (6.18), while furtherincreasing the precision.TheMSPR modelachievesthisbecause it incorporates the potentiallynonrandomPSP data,the randomTSP data (frombothoccasions) andgrowthmodeldata,thusincreasing the samplesize and decreasing the overalleffect of the potentialbiasintroduced by thePSPdataset. r 0.9897 CorrelationCoefficients Notethatinestimating 02x•r,02x•z,•j2Xm,and 02Xuwe haveusedtheclassicalestimates--theresidualmeansquares andthesamplevariances. Thusif Equations (1) and(2) areto remainvalid with all parameters replacedby sampleestimates,theonlypossibleestimators of thecorrelation coefficientsPmandPuarethesamplecorrelation coefficients rmand rubasedontherelevantpaireddata. GrowthModel Projections Becausemostempiricalgrowthmodelsaredeterministic in nature,if two differentTSP havingexactlythesamestand characteristics areprojected to thesecond occasion, theywill have the same second occasion stand characteristics. If the projection Zuis a deterministic, linearfunctionof Xu,thenXu andZu areperfectlycorrelated andthereis no gainin precision;Zu is merelya surrogatefor Xu. Therefore,the useof growthprojections isadvantageous onlyinsofarastheprojectionsutilizeadditional information beyonda linearextrapola- Table 4. Comparison of current mean volume estimates and their variances for different sampling methods. Samplingmethod Volume estimate Estimated variance of (m3/ha) theestimate Table 5. Comperisonof growth estimates and their veriencesfor different sampling designs. Growth estimate Variance of Only TSP 254.70 106.44 Estimationprocedure (m3/ha) PSP TSP and PSP 263.70 257.70 104.60 57.67 PSP 5.45 1.20 Original SPR (separate)• Original SPR (pooled) Modified SPR (separate) Modified SPR (pooled) 257.61 256.51 257.18 256.03 Original SPR (separate) Original SPR (pooled) Modified SPR (separate) Modified SPR (pooled) 5.78 5.82 6.15 6.18 1.15 1.16 0.806 0.809 35.59 39.02 35.13 37.98 the estimate ForestScience 42(3)1996 333 uonof currentvolumewhileretrorangthepropertythatmodel projectionsare unbiased. Applicabilityof the MSPR estimator Fromtheappliedperspective, if theoriginalSPRestimator is alreadybeingused,the applicationof the modifiedestimator doesnot requireany changeswith the exceptionof using thenewestimators andobtaininga suitablegrowthmodel.If appropriate growthmodelsareavailablethedecisiontochange fromtraditionalestimatorto theMSPR estimatoris appealing becauseof thepotentialfor gainsin precisionwithouttheneed Ctrm^,T, • B C[mvRou1969 Samplingwithpartialreplacement onthree or more occasions. For. Sci. 15:204- 224. HANSEN, M.H. 1990.A comprehensive systemfor forestinventorybasedon an individualtreegrowthmodel.Ph.D.diss.,Universityof Minnesota 256 p. HANSEN, M.H., ANDJ.T.HAAN.1983.Estimation of sampling errorassociated withtimberchangeprojectionsimulators. P. 546-549 inProc.Renewable resourceinventoriesfor monitoringchangesandtrend,Bell, J.F., andT Atterbury(eds.).SAF Publ.No. 83-14. NEWTON, C.M., T. Ctrm^,ANDC.A. BICrd•ORD. 1974.MultivariateestimatorS forsampling withpartialreplacement ontwooccasions. For.Sci.20:106116. for additional field data collection. ScoTr,C.T. 1984.A newlookat sampling withpartialreplacement. For. 30:157-166. Literature Cited Trrus,S.J.1981.A usefulfunctionfor makinggrowthestimates with partial replacement sampling.Resour.Eval.Newsl. 11:4-7. BROWNLEE, K.A. 1965. Statisticaltheoryandmethodology in scienceand engineering. Wiley, New York. P. 95-97. VANDEUSEN, P. 1989.Multiple-occasion partialreplacement samplingfor growthcomponents. For. Sci. 35(2):388-400. Ctrm^,T. 1965.Continuous forestinventory,partialreplacement of samples andmultipleregression. For. Sci. 11:480-502. WAe, E, K.D., ANt)T. Ctr•^. 1962.Continuousforestinventorywith pamal 334 ForestSctence 42(3)1996 replacement of samples. For.Sci.Monogr3.