9/01/2011
Starting to Scan:
Setting Up An Organisational
Scanning System
Webinar 17 November 2010
Maree Conway
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9/01/2011
….using futures approaches to
integrate strategic thinking into
strategy development and planning
What you wanted…
• Futures thinking 2020-2025
• Using scanning and competitive
intelligence
• Presenting information in ways that
demonstrate ROI
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Environmental scanning is the art of systematically
exploring the external environment to:
(i) better understand the nature and pace of change in that
environment, and
(ii) identify potential opportunities, challenges and likely
future developments relevant to your organisation.
•
Information obtained ethically and legally, used to gain an advantage in
commerce.
www.internationalinvestigations.org/glossaryOfTerms.php
•
Information that is useful for analyzing a company's strategic position in the
industry. Information about the competitors and their actions.
ecommerce.etsu.edu/Glossary.htm
•
The systematic gathering of open information when collated and analyzed provides a
better understanding of a competitor firm's structure, culture, behavior,
capabilities, and weaknesses.
www.fbig.ca/glossary.html
•
CI is the process of enhancing marketplace competitiveness through a greater -- yet
unequivocally ethical -- understanding of a firm's competitors and the
competitive environment
http://competitive-intelligence.mirum.net/business-intelligence/definitioncompetitive-intelligence.html
•
CI is the purposeful and coordinated monitoring of your competitor(s), wherever
and whoever they may be, within a specific marketplace...
http://www.aurorawdc.com/whatisci.htm
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Where environmental scanning fits…
Long‐term
Environmental Scanning
developing a broad and
unconstrained understanding
of the external environment
TIME
HORIZON
Social Intelligence
understanding how a
country uses its
intelligence (knowledge
industry and information
networks) to meet its
developmental
challenges
Future View
building a longterm foresight
view about the
future of the
country and the
planet
Business Intelligence
understanding the present and
future environments with a
focus on future competitive
environments
Competitive Intelligence
understanding how our competitors
interact with the business and
market environment in which they
operate
Short‐term
Competitor Intelligence
understanding the nature
of our competitors and
their likely responses to
change
Narrow
SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING
Broad
Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998
Poll
• Do you have a formal scanning system in
your organisation now?
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Overview
•
•
•
•
Why?
Pre-requisites
Steps
Challenges
First…
• We will be talking about environmental
scanning as part of a strategy
development cycle.
• This type of scanning is ‘directed’ – it is
anchored around the strategic needs of
your organisation.
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Strategic Thinking
Generating Options
Options
What might happen?
Strategic Decision Making Making Decisions
Decisions
Where do we want to go?
Strategic Planning
Taking Action
Action
What will we do?
• Scanning strategically is not about what is
happening today.
• It’s about what’s coming, what’s new,
emerging, unknown, and what’s likely to
affect the way you do business in the
future.
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Where to scan
Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases, trends
and
megatrends
Number of
cases;
degree of
public
awareness
Government
Institutions
Newspapers,
magazines, websites,
journals,blogs
Late Majority
Laggards
Scientists, artists,
radicals, mystics
Mainstream
Trends
Late Adopters
Emerging Issues
Few cases,
local focus
Early adopters
Innovators
Today
Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18‐36 years
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
Why a Scanning System?
• To strengthen the quality of the thinking
that goes into your strategy development
• To let you understand what’s coming and
what it means for you
• To give you enough time to prepare and
be proactive
• To give you a competitive edge
• To move you beyond busy - out of crisis
management mode
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Question Check
Pre-requisites
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•
Choo, C.W. (1998) Information Management for the Intelligent
Organisation: The Art of Scanning the Environment, ASIS Monograph
Series, Medford New Jersey. Available from http://choo.fis.utoronto.ca/
•
Day, G and Schoemaker, P. (2005) Scanning the Periphery, Harvard Business
Review, http://hbr.harvardbusiness.org/2005/11/scanning-the-periphery/ar/1.
Includes assessment of need and capacity for peripheral vision.
•
Richard Slaughter (1999) "A new framework for environmental
scanning". Foresight 1 (5): 441-451.
•
Joseph Voros (2001) "Reframing environmental scanning: an integral
approach". Foresight 3 (6): 533-551.
•
Andy Hines (2003) "Applying integral futures to environmental scanning".
Futures Research Quarterly 19 (4) 49-62.
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Our
assumptions
encase us in
the past.
Question Check
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Steps
1. Someone
has to manage
the system…
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2. Set up your scanning team
Open minds…
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Curious…
Systems thinker…
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Accept diversity…
Think outside the box…
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Think outrageously at times…
Challenge assumptions…
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Aware of own worldview…
Are resilient…
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Can deal with ambiguity…
Comfortable with technology…
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Can synthesis disparate
information…
Can present the weird & whacky
and make it sound sensible…
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Trust their expertise to identify
what’s relevant.
3. Identify your Focus
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4. Find ways to involve your staff
and stakeholders
5. Work on the basics
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6. Start to scan
6. Hold regular review meetings
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7. Be ready
for
resistance
8. Report in
ways that
make sense
to your
organisation
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9. Have many conversations
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Question Check
Case Study
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Arthritis Victoria
•
•
•
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Why they did it
The Process
Challenges
Learnings so far
Shaping Tomorrow
• Store your scanning hits
• Use the database being built daily by
people around the globe
• Develop trend reports
• Collaborate on analysis
• Test your organisation’s future readiness
http://www.shapingtomorrow.com
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Question Check
Poll
• What is your degree of organisational
readiness for a formal scanning system?
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Challenges
There’ll never
be enough time
for scanning
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Dealing with
information
overload
Wild
card
Broad Sources
Globalisation
Technology
Global
Demographics &
generational change
Wild
card
Industry
Learning
Delivery
Educational
Gaming
The role of
the academic
Wild
card
Work
Online
Lifestyle
Organisation
Environment
Sustainability
Engagement
Values
Economy
Consumers
Vocational
Imperative
Funding
Wild
card
Politics
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Waning organisational commitment
Managing Organisational
Distractions
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Never underestimate the value of operating
in stealth mode…
Embed scanning in your
organisation’s memory
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Question Check
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Contact Details
Maree Conway
http://www.thinkingfutures.net
http://mareeconway.com/blog
maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net
Tel: +61 (0)3 9016 9506
Mobile: +61 (0)425 770 181
Skype: mkconway1
Please complete the satisfaction
survey
and
thank you for attending!
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