Alice Springs E c on o mic Pro file Map of Central Australia Central Australia Alice Springs Local Government Area Source: Department of Business, Economic and Regional Development Ta b l e o f C o n t e n t s Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary.................................................................................... 1 Introduction................................................................................................... 1 Approach....................................................................................................... 1 Economic Environment................................................................................. 2 The Economy................................................................................................ 2 Conclusion.................................................................................................... 3 2. Introduction................................................................................................. 4 3. Macro Economy.......................................................................................... 5 3.1. Economic Performance...................................................................... 5 3.2. Investment.......................................................................................... 7 3.3. Australian Government Payments...................................................... 7 3.4. Export................................................................................................. 8 3.5. Population.......................................................................................... 9 3.6. Workforce......................................................................................... 10 3.8. Home Ownership.............................................................................. 15 3.8. Inflation............................................................................................. 15 4. Industry Sectors........................................................................................ 16 4.1. Industry Sector Business Count....................................................... 16 4.2. Firm Structure................................................................................... 17 4.3. Regional and Territory Economy – Alice Springs Contribution......... 19 5. Alice Springs Business Survey............................................................... 21 Survey Results............................................................................................ 21 Methodology................................................................................................ 21 Descriptive Results..................................................................................... 23 Previous Business Performance................................................................. 25 Expectations................................................................................................ 27 Opportunities for Growth ............................................................................ 29 Outline 1. Executive Summary Introduction The Alice Springs Economic Profile tells, for the first time, the story of the Alice Springs economy. The Alice Springs Economic Development Committee and the Department of Business, Economic and Regional Development (DBERD) partnered to produce this profile to provide the starting point for discussions between the community and the Government about the future development of Alice Springs. The profile, a project recognised under the Northern Territory Government and Charles Darwin University Partnership Agreement, has demanded rigorous economic research and analysis. Six months of data collation and analysis, from November 2007 until April 2008, has been required to ensure that the profile provides the most complete picture of the Alice Springs economy as possible. There are challenges with a project of this scale, one of which is being able to access all the required data. Where gaps have been identified other possible sources of information have been sought. It is important to recognise that the profile is, first and foremost, a snapshot in time. The lasting image it creates is that of an underlying confidence in the Alice Springs economy and the firm expectation that this is to continue. Approach The development of this profile was a three-stage process. The first stage involved undertaking a desktop search of economic information relevant to Alice Springs from reputable sources. The second stage was a major survey of Alice Springs businesses to determine the key characteristics of their business and business performance. This included identifying their expectations for the approaching 2008 trading year. The final stage was to construct a narrative that brought all of the information together to form a cohesive description of the economy, which includes not only surveyed data but also draws upon Australian Government and administrative data sets. Alice Springs Economic Profile 1 Executive Summary Economic Environment As with all economies, geography is a critical factor to consider. This is no different for Alice Springs. Alice Springs is a remote economy servicing a vast area of inland Australia, including parts of Western Australia and South Australia. It is a stand-alone economy in many senses, but even so, it is impacted on by national and global markets. During the development of the profile, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted Australian interest rates three times. This was further compounded by the considerable uncertainty on equity markets driven by financial crisis in some key international economies. The Economy Alice Springs is a broad based economy, supported by a significant diversity in its industry sectors. The top seven industries contributed approximately 52 per cent of the regional output to Alice Springs. This industry structure is generally a recipe for economic stability and recent history in Alice Springs confirms this. There are more than 1800 businesses in the town, with the majority being micro and small business. Government is a significant player through both administration and Defence. Over 58 per cent of businesses were affected by seasonality. The strongest trading occurred between July and September, and weakest trading between January and March. Business at all levels and in all sectors reported considerable confidence for the 2008 trading year and sales and profits are expected to rise. Seventy-nine per cent of businesses were extremely or fairly confident of strong business prospects in 2008. Sixty one per cent of businesses surveyed expect an increase in profitability in 2008. Seventy four per cent are expecting an increase in sales, while fifty seven per cent are expecting to increase their workforce. Fifty three per cent are expecting an increased wages bill while forty one per cent are expecting to increase their prices. Thirty five per cent will increase their capital expenditure. There are key economic challenges for Alice Springs. One challenge is the ability to build a workforce in a community which has seen a decline in both the population generally and in the workforce specifically. There is a low unemployment rate, high labour force participation, and a significant number of vacant positions at any one time. Even given these challenges, businesses expectations are still positive. The profile suggests however, that average wages in Alice Springs have not kept pace with the rate of wage increases either in the Northern Territory or nationally. This is not an uncommon challenge for regional economies, like Alice Springs, which are strongly based on micro and small enterprises. The only sustainable way to increase wages into the longer term is to build the productivity of the business sector. As a relatively stable economy, Alice Springs provides a good foundation to build on that over time. Investment is a key to growth, competitiveness, sustainability and increasing productivity. There is no direct data on investment flows in Alice Springs and clearly this is an area where more work needs to be done to determine the strength or otherwise of those flows over time. Alice Springs Economic Profile 2 Executive Summary Anecdotal evidence suggests that there has been considerable investment at the business level in recent times. There are a number of new projects in ‘the pipeline’ that will add to the capacity of the region. Some of these include • Owen Springs Power Station – estimated $57m • Solar Cities – estimated $37m • Solar Demonstration Facility – estimated $2.55m Conclusion This profile is an important source of information on the Alice Springs economy and will be a good reference point for the discussion about its economic future. The outlook for Alice Springs is positive, though it is expected that there might be some tempering of the very strong confidence levels as a result of global uncertainty, particularly for those industries exposed to the external sector. The diversity of the structure of the economy is a strong positive that brings stability and is a precondition for long term investment. There are some concerns surrounding the competitiveness of the labour market and as a consequence, the number of workers that will be available. The Alice Springs Economic Committee and DBERD wish to thank all those that participated in this project and particularly the 374 business people who gave up their time to participate in the business survey. You have provided an invaluable insight into the business perspective. Finally, we would welcome input about this profile. The economic profile of Alice Springs suggests that Alice Springs has a stable, young population with low unemployment, and high workforce participation. Home ownership is on the rise. Alice Springs contributes 11 per cent towards the Northern Territory Gross State Product (GSP). The Central Australia region (minus Alice Springs) contribues an additional six per cent to this total. The region’s economy is based on a broad base of industries with high business confidence. Tax data suggests mean income levels are lower in Alice Springs than the Northern Territory average. While businesses are expecting an increase in their profitability, prices charged, work force and value of sales, they are not expecting to increase their capital expenditure expenditure to the same degree. To provide feedback about this profile please contact: Department of Business, Economic and Regional Development T: (08) 8951 8524 F: (08) 8951 8533 Alice Springs in this report relates to the Australian Bureau of Statistics geography of Alice Springs (T) Local Government Area. Reference to the Central Australia includes the central region minus Alice Springs (T) Local Government Area. Alice Springs Economic Profile E: TBCAlice.DBERD@nt.gov.au A: Peter Sitzler Building 67 North Stuart Highway Alice Springs NT 0870 3 Introduction 2. Introduction 2.1 Nature of the Project The Alice Springs Economic Profile (the profile) is a key project of the Alice Springs Economic Development Committee and a component of the Stronger Regions Schedule of the Northern Territory Government / Charles Darwin University Partnership. The profile has been developed in three stages: • Firstly, identification of all available economic data sources, i.e. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Tax Office (ATO) data, Centrelink and other administrative data that is relevant for the region. • Secondly, a data collection phase was undertaken in November 2007 (Alice Springs business survey) involving a survey of 374 Alice Springs businesses. • Finally, the profile is a combined analysis of various data sources (including the business survey) to present the economic structure, economic performance, economic drivers and flows and general economic activity in Alice Springs. The purpose of the Alice Springs Economic Profile is to: • Provide economic base line data for future discussion • Provide a comprehensive picture of the uniqueness of the economy of the Alice Springs region (Local Government Area) • Understand the features that interplay in Alice Springs • Engage the community for future planning • Drive development of regional economies • Develop policies based on evidence • Provide a brief understanding of the economic fundamentals • Identify the economic drivers • Investigate opportunities and choices for producing sustainable outcomes. Alice Springs Economic Profile 4 The Macro Economy 3. The Macro Economy This section comprises an economic profile of Alice Springs, with macro-economic information followed by sector contributions and business performance/confidence. The macro economic information presented here concentrates on the key parameters of the Alice Springs economy. These parameters include: economic performance; investment; exports; workforce; population; productivity; labour; home ownership and inflation. 3.1. Economic Performance • Northern Territory growth has averaged approximately 3.8 per cent over the past five years and is expected to average 6.6 per cent in the next year (2008-09), driven by strong investment in the resource sectors. • The Alice Springs economy is approximately 11 per cent of the Northern Territory economy, and its gross regional product (GRP) increased by 35 per cent from 1996 to 2006. • Alice Springs contribution to the Northern Territory economy declined marginally from 12.5 per cent to 11 per cent over the 1996 – 2006 period; however, the size of the Northern Territory gross state product (GSP) grew from $8 776 billion to $13 405 billion during this period. • In the same period the contribution of Central Australia (excluding Alice Springs) to the Northern Territory economy has remained steady however over the decade there has been a decline of 2 per cent from 2001 to 2006. Table 1- Gross State Product GRP Alice Springs GRP Central Australia GSP Northern Territory $M $M $M 1996 1098 522 8776 2001 1284 857 11 425 2006 1478 824 13 405 Year Source – DBERD estimates and ABS cat 5206.0 Graph 1 - Contribution of the Northern Territory to the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Alice Springs (T) and Central Australia to the Territory Gross State Product (GSP). 14.0 NT GSP to GDP GRP Cent AUst to GSP 12.0 GRP AS to GSP Percentage 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1996 2001 Years 2006 Source – DBERD Northern Territory performance has grown, while the Alice Springs relative share of the Northern Territory GSP has declined since 1996. Alice Springs Economic Profile 5 The Macro Economy • The top seven industries contributed approximately 52 per cent of regional product towards Alice Springs economy. The value of contribution by these top seven industries is: Table 2 - Top Seven Industries Industry Regional contribution AS ( Value ($M)) No of businesses M Government administration 143.21 (a) L Property and business services 132.35 444 O Health and community services 120.79 78 E Construction 120.59 378 B Mining 91.27 0 N Education 85.72 24 C Manufacturing 78.04 60 Top seven industries total 771.97 984 Source: ABS, cat 8165.0, June 2003-2007, DBERD estimates. (a) The ABS does not collect data for the Government administration and Defence sector based on number of businesses. 93 Industry classifications are applied for this data set. • The next ten industries (see Table 14) contributed 31 per cent towards the Alice Springs GRP and 3.5 per cent towards the Northern Territory GSP. Graph 2 – Gross Regional Contribution by Sector Top 7 Next 10 $160 $140 $120 Millions $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 ng s er hi fis vi tra try an d ls na io es at or ,f re tu ul ic A A gr ra tu ul P C ce de ly re ec R la nd ity ,g ric ct le E D sa le ho W F an as e le at d an w d in er su su ra pp nc ce vi er nc na Fi K P er e s s ra au he rs la nd ot d an so na es af ,c io n H A cc Q at od nt es re n at io ic un m om C J om m st se ai lt rv ra ag et R G rt po ns C IT ra ic de e g or an d uf M an E N st ac t ca du M ur tio in n g in in io st on C E B ct ru rv se ity un m n es ic ic rv co m an d lth ea H ro se ne si bu d an rty O P L M G pe ov er nm en ta dm ss in is tra tio n es $0 Source: ABS, cat 5220.0 and 5206.0, DBERD derived methodology The ABS does not collect data for the Government administration and Defence sectors. Alice Springs Economic Profile 6 The Macro Economy 3.2. Investment • Investment is a major driver of any economy; though measures of investment flows are not available for Alice Springs. • The broad base of the Alice Springs economy, however, provides the foundations for regular flows of private investment, particularly when confidence is high. • The business survey used to develop this profile recorded very high confidence levels, and while that is only one snapshot in time, businesses are anticipating and have been preparing for a growth in sales and, importantly, a growth in profits. • This suggests that private investment decisions will continue to drive the economy. Some examples of private and public investment include: xx Olympia resources – Abrasives project near Harts Range 170 kilometres near north east of Alice Springs xx Thor Mining – Molyhil Molybdenum / Tungsten project 220 kilometres north east of Alice Springs xx Owen Springs Power Station xx Desert Knowledge Australia - construction of Desert People’s Centre. Over recent months, major Indigenous construction activity has included: xx Imparja building xx Yeperenye Centre Extensions xx CLC Building (under construction) Table 3 - Value of Private and Public Investment in Alice Springs Year Est Value Northern Territory Government Investment $M Est Value Private Investment $M Total Investment $M 2007 45.7 17.1 62.8 2006 27.1 32.1 59.2 2005 52.2 26.9 79.1 2004 22.2 2.4 24.6 2003 5.7 2 7.7 Source – DBERD 3.3. Australian Government Payments An important injection into the regional economy is payments by the Australian Government. There is no publically available data on the value of those flows; however as at March 2008 there were 14 101 Centrelink and Job Network clients in the Alice Springs and Central Australia regions (5743 Job Network and 8438 Centrelink recipients). Alice Springs Economic Profile 7 The Macro Economy 3.4. Export • The Northern Territory relies heavily on international exports, especially for its resources (mining and petroleum) and cattle trade. • Unfortunately, point of origin data on exports is not available. Future profiles will include work in this area but on this occasion the information is limited to key facts about the Northern Territory. • Northern Territory exports accounted for $4.1 billion (Table 4). • The effect of the decline in oil production in early 2000 saw a decline in Northern Territory exports on top of a downturn in international tourism in the Northern Territory in the same period. More recently exports have rebounded strongly on the back of mineral and gas exports which is off setting the decline in Northern Territory oil production. In 2007-08, the value of mineral fuel exports is estimated to decrease by 7 per cent to $1.7 billion, to which LNG contributes $1.4 billion. • The live cattle export trade and the sale of cattle in interstate markets dominates agricultural production in the Northern Territory. There are approximately 1.8 million cattle in the Northern Territory and the gross value of production in the cattle industry was $192.6 million in 2006 to 2007. The number of live cattle exported in 2007 was 321 151, at a value of $204.4 million (source: NT at a Glance). The live cattle export market and demand for cattle in interstate markets are forecasted to remain steady. • The Alice Springs region is resource-rich, predominantly for gold, silver, uranium and other non-metallic minerals (barite, crushed rock, gravel, and other resources). International demand for the Territory’s resources is on the rise. The value of Northern Territory ore exports increased by 26 per cent to an estimated $2.2 billion in 2007-08. • The strong Australian dollar and competitive fares have also accelerated tourist numbers from the Northern Territory and this sector has been growing in recent years. Each year about 465 000 tourists visit Alice Springs, MacDonnell and Petermann, worth over $313 million per year to the accommodation industry. Table 4 - Exports for Northern Territory Year NT $M NT % Yearly increases/ decreases Five year growth rate (%) 1996 1205 8.4 2001 3476 -16.7 188.5 2006 3617 56.4 4.1 March 2008 4105* 3.7 13.5# Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5368.0 * Total NT exports value ($M) for the 12 months to March 2008 # Growth since December 2007 Alice Springs Economic Profile 8 The Macro Economy 3.5. Population • Based on Census figures, the population of Alice Springs fell by 6.1 percent from 28 178 in 2001 to 26 472 in 2006. The preliminary 2007 population estimate for Alice Springs (T) is 26 305. Forward estimates suggest there will be growth in population from 2011 (Table 5). • There has been some growth in the Indigenous population but this has been countered by a significant fall in the non-Indigenous population. • The population decline is also reflected in the unemployment figures (i.e. unemployment has declined). • At the macro-economic level, a current and future challenge will be to maintain a larger population to meet the workforce demand. Table 5 – Time Series Population and Forward Estimates for Indigenous and NonIndigenous Population – Alice Springs and Central Australia. Census years Forward estimates 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 27 092 28 178 26 472 26 572 27 095 27 610 4103 4542 5158 5757 6442 7209 21 849 22 237 20 341 20 896 21 451 22 006 Overseas visitors 1140 1399 917 n/a n/a n/a TOTAL (c) Central Australia 14 052 14 705 14 320 14 631 15 834 17 025 Indigenous (b) 8516 9050 9300 9713 10 147 10 600 Non-Indigenous (b) 4194 4376 3596 3696 3796 3896 Overseas visitors 1343 1278 1429 n/a n/a n/a TOTAL(a) ALICE SPRINGS (T) LGA Indigenous (b) Non-Indigenous (b) Source: 2006 Census of Population and Housing and ABS Cat no 3222.7 Series B, (a) Totals based on Census counts and will not add up (Indigenous and non-Indigenous). (b) Treasury estimates (c) Central Statistical Sub Division minus Alice Springs LGA equals Central Australia. n/a Not available Alice Springs Economic Profile 9 The Macro Economy 3.6. Workforce 3.6.1.Workforce – based on number of workers in Alice Springs • The number of workers in Alice Springs has fallen as would be expected with the decline in population from 2001-2006; though the fall is only 3.4 per cent or just under half of the shift in population – this suggests an increase in the participation rate in the economy over this period • Alice Springs has one of the lowest official unemployment rates in Australia. At only 2.7 per cent, there are considerable job vacancies and strategies need to be implemented to bolster the number of workers available to industry and business. Table 6 -Time Series Labour Force Data for Alice Springs and Northern Territory Census figures Central Australia (excludes Alice Springs) Alice Springs Northern Territory 1996 2001 2006 1996 2001 2006 1996 2001 2006 TOTAL LABOUR FORCE 13 438 13 912 13 257 4389 4359 4230 89 603 96 148 98 401 Employed 12 771 13 342 12 897 4006 4132 3761 82 976 90 434 94 195 Unemployed 654 571 360 396 226 469 6627 5714 4206 Unemployment rate 4.9 4.1 2.7 9.02 5.18 11.09 7.4 5.9 4.3 Participation rate 69 67.9 66.7 46.8 44.0 43.6 63.4 62.6 60.6 Source: 2006 Census of Population and Housing (Alice Springs (T) LGA) - Time Series Profile. Enumerated data. 3.6.2.Workforce - Job vacancies Job vacancies is one possible surrogate measure of workforce data. • Advertised job vacancies in Alice Springs grew by 32 per cent in 2005-06 (Table 7). • Advertised job vacancies for government jobs have increased to 5100 for the Northern Territory and 1114 for Alice Springs in 2005-06. Vacancies for government positions in previous years has been very low. Table 7 - Job Vacancy data Area 2004-05 2005-06 Growth (%) Northern Territory 15 502 18 308 18 Alice Springs 2827 3737 32 Source: Information provided by the Department of Education, Employment and Training. Alice Springs Economic Profile 10 The Macro Economy 3.6.3.Workforce – based on number of hours worked The government sector is the most notable based on number of hours worked. • Alice Springs had the highest percentage of people employed in government/Defence (15.8 per cent) (based on numbers of hours worked) with the majority working 40 hours per week. • The Northern Territory was also high in this sector (government/Defence), at 21.6 per cent with the majority working 35-39 hours. • In comparison, the proportion of people Australia-wide engaged in this sector was only 6.7 per cent, with the majority also working between 35-39 hours. 3.6.4.Workforce – Industry by employment 1996 Census Persons 2001 Census Persons 2006 Census Persons Public administration and safety 1343 1634 1975 Health care and social assistance 1630 1645 1638 Retail trade 1370 1454 1367 Education and training 1026 1208 1236 Accommodation and food services 1060 1178 1005 Professional, scientific and technical services 744 609 872 Construction 860 971 850 Transport, postal and warehousing 715 725 608 Other services 660 686 594 Manufacturing 445 521 549 Administrative and support services 411 481 397 Arts and recreation services 359 409 340 Wholesale trade 403 448 304 Inadequately described/Not stated 461 307 303 Rental, hiring and real estate services 215 234 220 Information media and telecommunications 456 286 211 Financial and insurance services 236 181 184 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 129 148 106 Electricity, gas, water and waste services 162 149 81 Mining 94 65 55 Source – Alice Springs (T) LGA 2006, Census of Population and Housing. Domestic Service Export Alice Springs Economic Profile 11 The Macro Economy 3.6.5.Wages and Salaries • Historically, average earnings in the Northern Territory have been above the Australian average largely due to a combination of factors including the a high percentage of employees in the public sector and mining sector as well as employers compensating employees with higher wages and airfares for the higher cost of living in the Northern Territory. • The impact of these factors has, however, diminished over time (based on average weekly earnings data in Table 8), mainly due to the broadening of the Northern Territory employment base, decreasing the difference between Northern Territory and Australian wages (see Table 8). • Average weekly earnings data for Alice Springs is not available. A close measure is mean taxable income which has been used below (see Table 9). • When comparing Northern Territory and Alice Springs average taxable incomes, Northern Territory average taxable incomes are much higher ($45 816 per annum) than in Alice Springs ($41 594 per annum) (Table 9). Table 8 – Average Weekly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings original (Nov 2007) Full-time Employees ordinary time earnings $ Full time adult total earnings $ All employee total earnings $ Northern Territory 1068.20 1115.90 881.40 Australia 1108.50 1160.00 875.80 Source ABS 6302.0 Average weekly earnings (November 2007) Table 9 – Mean Taxable Income Non-taxable individuals Taxable individuals Taxable income (excluding losses) Mean taxable income 0870 1800 9960 429 614 324 43 134 0872 2330 2195 75 959 205 34 606 Alice Springs Region 4130 12 155 505 573 529 41 594 18 395 81 395 3 729 176 712 45 816 Postcode1 NT Total Source – Taxation statistics 2004-05 (ATO data) Alice Springs Economic Profile 12 The Macro Economy 3.6.6.Unemployment levels • Alice Springs has one of the lowest official unemployment rates in Australia at 2.7 per cent (Table 6). • There has been a 32 per cent increase in job vacancies in Alice Springs, indicating that there are considerable vacancies at any single point in time (see Table 7). • This is not an unexpected result, but given the decline in population during the last Census period, and the strength of the economy more broadly, strategies need to be implemented to increase the number of workers available to industry and business. • Even though the overall unemployment rate is low in Alice Springs compared to the Northern Territory, when examining the Indigenous and non-Indigenous population breakdown within Alice Springs, the unemployment rate is 8.4 per cent (Table 10) higher in the Indigenous population than in the non-Indigenous population. This statistic is based on 2006 Census figures (usual residents). • While the Indigenous population is growing at a faster rate than the nonIndigenous population, the socio-economic challenges faced by higher proportions of Indigenous populations are highlighted below in Table 10. Improving these outcomes will be a continued challenge while maintaining and improving Alice Springs economic performance. Alice Springs Economic Profile 13 The Macro Economy Table 10 - Socio - Economic Breakdown Alice Springs (T) (LGA) – 2006 Census Central Australia Indigenous NonIndigenous Total (a) Indigenous NonIndigenous Total (a) % Unemployment (b) 10.1 1.7 2.5 7.3 0.5 13.59 % Labour force participation (c) 41.2 82.2 69.6 30.2 87.5 42.58 % Employment to population (d) 37.1 80.8 67.8 22.9 87.1 36.79 Industry sector (e) Government 390 2760 3169 683 258 941 Private 653 8362 9089 631 1196 1827 CDEP participants (f) 103 0 103 918 12 930 Self employed (g) 20 575 595 1 21 22 Median age 23 35 33 23 33 25 Median individual incomes ($/weekly) 248 725 658 207 721 227 Median rent ($/weekly) 127 190 180 30 70 30 Average household size 3.4 2.5 2.6 6 2 4 Source 2006 Census data, place of usual residence (a) Totals will not add up to Indigenous plus non-Indigenous (b) The number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of total labour force (c) The number of persons in labour force expressed as a percentage of persons aged 15 years and over (d) The number of persons employed expressed as a percentage of persons aged 15 years and over (e) Applicable to persons aged 15 years and over (f) Community development employment projects (CDEP) participants are counted as employed persons. Data collected from ABS Census interview household forms used in discreet Indigenous communities (g) Comprises owner managers of unincorporated enterprises with nil employees. 3.6.7.Productivity and Labour • Productivity is an important measure of an economy however no productivity data is currently available at the Alice Springs level. More work needs to be undertaken in this area to acquire regional information about productivity. • However, the survey of businesses (below) indicated the following results based on future expectations. • xx 74 per cent expect an increase in value of sales xx 57 per cent expect an increase in size of workforce xx 53 per cent expect an increase in wages bill xx 41 per cent expect an increase in prices charged xx 61 per cent expect profit to increase xx 35 per cent will increase their capital expenditure. It is likely that if businesses were to increase capital investment that this may result in smarter and more efficient business practices thus increasing productivity. Alice Springs Economic Profile 14 The Macro Economy 3.7. Home Ownership • Home ownership is based on the number of dwellings fully owned and being purchased. Census data indicates home ownership is on the rise. • Over the decade to 2006 home ownership has increased in Alice Springs by 28 per cent. • However it should be noted that there has been a significant drop in fully owned dwellings which goes hand in hand with the decline in population of Alice Springs, but the number of dwellings being purchased has increased by 43 per cent over this same period. This indicates higher disposable incomes as a result of low unemployment and high workforce participation. • Further, there has been a 19 per cent drop in the number of people renting properties in Alice Springs, demonstrating that people with disposable incomes are seeking to purchase dwellings rather than pay rent. • This suggests a degree of confidence in the strengthening of the housing sector. Table 11 – Median Housing Payments Alice Springs Northern Territory 1996 2001 2006 1996 2001 2006 Median housing loan payments (monthly) 867 953 1300 867 1000 1300 Median rent (weekly) 125 150 180 100 110 140 Source: 2006 Time Series Profile for Alice Springs and the Northern Territory 3.8. Inflation • The cost of a basket of goods in Alice Springs was $167.80 (December 2007), representing an increase of 0.9 per cent over the year. This is $6.79 cheaper than Mt Isa, a town similar in population size to Alice Springs, and $7.88 cheaper (4.5 per cent) than Darwin. • Generally grocery prices are cheaper in Alice Springs than in Darwin, particularly for perishables, reflecting the proximity to southern supply centres. • The data is based on the Grocery Price Survey (December 2007) undertaken by the Northern Territory Treasury. ABS does not produce a consumer price index for Alice Springs. • Prices for fruit/vegetables and meat/seafood together make up around one-third of the cost of the basket. These commodities are also highly volatile, reflecting variations in seasonal and other factors affecting supply. Such variations in prices in these categories can have a substantial impact on the overall cost of the basket in any survey period. • The composition of the basket of goods in Alice Springs is made up of 79.9 per cent food and 20.1 per cent of household supplies and pet food. • The composition of the basket of goods in Darwin is 80.2 per cent food and 19.8 per cent of household supplies and pet food. • The cost of Alice Springs basket of goods has been lower than Darwin consistently for the last few years. This trend is expected to continue. Alice Springs Economic Profile 15 Alice Springs Industry Sectors 4. Alice Springs Industry Sectors The following information features industry sectoral contributions to the Alice Springs economy. 4.1. Industry Sector Business Count • This document has used the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification (ANZSIC 1993 or 2006). • The data shows the Alice Springs economy has a relatively wide industry base. The top seven industry sectors by business count are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Property and business services Construction Retail trade Transport and storage Finance and insurance Cultural and recreation services Health and community services 24% 21% 16% 7% 6% 5% 4% Together these amount to some 83 per cent of businesses. • Alice Springs has a broad industry base, which is dominated by the infrastructure and service industries. It contributes an estimated 11 per cent towards the Northern Territory GSP. In addition Central Australia contributes six per cent, bringing the regional contribution to Northern Territory GSP to 17 per cent. • Alice Springs’ economy is dominated by property and business services (444) based on the number of businesses operating in this sector. This sector contributes nine per cent of regional product into the Alice Springs economy. • This sector includes businesses engaged in renting and leasing assets as well as units engaged in providing a wide variety of business services. Alice Springs Economic Profile 16 Alice Springs Industry Sectors Table 12 – Industry Sector by Business Numbers * L E G I K P O H A C F Q N J B D Industry Classification Property and business services Construction Retail trade Transport and storage Finance and insurance Cultural and recreational services Health and community services Accommodation, cafes and restaurants Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Wholesale trade Personal and other services Education Communication services Mining Electricity, gas and water supply TOTAL Number of businesses by industry Percentage of Alice Springs total 444 24% 378 294 129 105 21% 16% 7% 6% 96 5% 78 4% 66 4% 66 60 39 33 24 9 0 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0 0% 1821 100% Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, June 2003 to June 2007. *93 industry classifications are applied for this data set. The ABS does not collect data for the Government administration and Defence sector. 4.2. Firm Structure The Alice Springs business sector is characterised by five firm structures. They are: Non-employing Micro Small Medium Large Sole trader/owner-operator less than 5 employees 5 - 19 employees 20 to 200 employees 200 plus employees The Alice Springs business landscape is dominated by non-employing, micro and small businesses. Graph 6 – Alice Springs Business Structure 66 medium businesses, 4% of total 3 large businesses, 0% of total 267 small businesses,15% of total 414 micro businesses, 23% of total 1071 non-employing businesses, 58% of total Alice Springs Economic Profile 17 Alice Springs Industry Sectors Graph 7 – Firm Structure by Industry Breakdown for Alice Springs Businesses 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% H de tra ag sa le or st W ho le d an rt Pr ea op er ty Tr a ns po si bu d an e de ra ai lt et R se rv ic e s s vi ce ne he ot d an al on rs Pe ss M rs er ic e ity un m m co d lth an in in g s e rv se su in d an e nc na Fi ty ci Small tri ec El ra pp su er at w d an s ga m om C nc ly io n at io n ct C on Ed uc s st ru rv se n ic un s fe ca io at d an M n io at od m Micro Ac co m ic e nt ra st re uf an au rin tu ac er ls na tio ea cr re nd la ra tu ul g s vi ce hi ng fis d an ry st re fo re tu ul ric C Ag s 0% Non employing Medium Large Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, June 2003 to June 2007. The ABS does not collect data for the Government administration and Defence sectors. Top Industries The top five non-employing businesses include: Personal and other services Construction Retail trade Transport and storage Finance and insurance The top five small businesses include: Retail trade Construction Property and business services Accommodation, cafes and restaurants Manufacturing Wholesale trade The top five micro businesses include: Retail trade Property and business services Construction Accommodation, cafes and restaurants Health and community The common top three non-employing, micro and small businesses include: Retail trade Property and business services Construction Alice Springs Economic Profile 18 Alice Springs Industry Sectors 4.3. Regional and Territory Economy – Alice Springs Contribution • The top seven industries contributed approximately 52 per cent of regional product towards the Alice Springs economy. The value of contribution by these top seven industries is: Table 13 – Top Seven Industries Industry Regional contribution AS ( Value ($M)) No of businesses M Government administration 143.21 (a) L Property and business services 132.35 444 O Health and community services 120.79 78 E Construction 120.59 378 B Mining 91.27 0 N Education 85.72 24 C Manufacturing 78.04 60 Top seven industries total 771.97 984 Source: ABS Catalogue 8165.0 and DBERD derived estimates (a) The ABS does not collect data for the Government administration and Defence sector based on number of businesses. • The value of contribution by these top seven industries is not reflective of the contribution made by the top seven industry sectors by business count which is: property and business services (444), construction (378), retail trade (294), transport and storage (129), finance and insurance (105), cultural and recreation services (96) and health and community services (78). • While retail trade is the third largest sector in terms of number of businesses and levels of employment, it only contributes an estimated five per cent towards the Alice Springs economy. • The next ten industries (see Table 12) contributed 31 per cent towards the Alice Springs GRP and 3.5 per cent towards the Northern Territory GSP. Alice Springs Economic Profile 19 Alice Springs Industry Sectors Table 14 – Industry by Output (Contribution to Economy) 2007 Gross Regional Contribution AS Gross Regional Contribution Central Australia NT GSP Value ($M) % Value ($M) % Value ($M) % M Government administration (a) 143.21 9.69 58 7.01 1039 8.17 L Property and business services 132.35 8.95 9 1.15 964 7.58 O Health and community services 120.79 8.17 34 4.14 706 5.55 E Construction 120.59 8.16 17 2.12 985 7.74 B Mining 91.27 6.12 461 55.96 3284 25.81 N Education 85.72 5.8 17 2.11 541 4.25 C Manufacturing 78.04 5.28 11 1.31 719 5.65 Top 7 industries 771.97 52.0 607 73.80 8238 64.75 I Transport and storage 72.81 4.92 16 1.95 554 4.35 G Retail trade 71.94 4.87 10 1.27 551 4.33 J Communication services 68.25 4.62 8 0.98 273 2.15 H Accommodation, cafes and restaurants 66.03 4.47 33 3.99 329 2.59 Q Personal and other services 43 2.91 7 0.86 278 2.18 K Finance and insurance 34.46 2.33 5 0.66 297 2.33 D Electricity, gas and water supply 31.28 2.11 7 0.89 167 1.31 F Wholesale trade 29.83 2.02 2 0.26 265 2.08 P Cultural and recreational services 26.55 1.8 5 0.63 203 1.6 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 12.3 0.83 29 3.55 301 2.37 Balance of other industries 456.45 30.88 122 15.0 3218 25.29 Ownership of dwellings 175.04 11.84 50 6.03 1268 9.97 All industries 1403.46 94.89 779 94.87 12724 100 Taxes less subsidies on products 72 4.86 40 4.86 652 n/a Statistical discrepancy 3.2 0.22 2 0.22 29 n/a GSP (current dollar)(b) 1478.57 100 824 100 13405 n/a Source: ABS CAT 5220.0 and 5206 as well as DBERD derived methodology (a) The ABS does not collect data for the Government administration and Defence sector based on number of businesses. (b) Rounding will impact totals. Alice Springs Economic Profile 20 Alice Springs Business Survey Alice Springs Business Survey Survey Results The Alice Springs Business Survey (the survey) was undertaken to determine the key characteristics of business performance and business expectations in Alice Springs. A brief overview of the survey is outlined below. The results obtained from the survey are included in this section. Methodology The survey was conducted in November 2007. The survey covered four key areas: • descriptive - such as industry, business turnover and number of employees • business performance - confidence and opportunities • business linkages - linkages by suppliers and market conditions by industry • business assistance - what, if anything, is required from the Northern Territory Government to assist businesses. The survey was the first of its kind for the Alice Springs region. Data sourced from the ABS was used to develop a survey sample (reference ABS electronic data related to ABS catalogue 8165.0 data available by postcode). Prior to conducting the survey a sample survey was tested using the Alice Springs Economic Development Committee. This provided the opportunity to test that the questions were easily understood and that the survey could be completed within 30 minutes. The survey did not require people to identify themselves or their business in anyway and as such the anonymity of survey participants was ensured. The preferred method of conducting the survey was face-to-face. Where this was not possible people were asked to contact the Department and speak to a consultant or complete the form and return it to the DBERD Alice Springs office. A total of 374 surveys were completed from the 600 businesses that were visited. Students from Charles Darwin University and Northern Territory Government staff conducted the survey and were required to complete and adhere to confidentiality agreements. The results of the survey have been categorised into micro, small, medium and large business structures. • • • • Micro - less than 5 employees. Small - 5 to 19 employees. Medium - 20 to 200 employees Large - 200 plus employees. Alice Springs Economic Profile 21 The Macro Economy Number of Businesses - Alice Springs Survey Alice Springs Business Survey Micro Small Medium Large Grand Total Accommodation and food services 12 16 9 3 39 Administrative and support services 3 0 3 0 7 Arts and recreational services 4 5 5 0 14 Construction 0 12 7 0 20 Education and training 5 3 9 0 18 Electricity, gas, water and waste services 0 3 0 0 4 Finance and insurance services 6 7 0 0 14 Health care and social assistance 8 6 3 0 17 Information media and telecommunications 3 4 4 0 11 Manufacturing 9 4 0 0 14 Mining 0 0 0 0 1 Other services 6 6 3 0 15 Professional, scientific and technical services 10 7 4 0 21 Public administration and safety 0 0 3 0 4 Rental, hiring and real estate services 3 5 3 0 12 Retail trade 62 59 11 0 132 Transport, postal and warehousing 3 6 6 0 16 Wholesale trade 10 3 3 0 15 Grand Total 145 148 74 7 374 Source – DBERD Alice Springs Business Survey, November 2007. Note – small numbers have been rounded to zero or three, but included in totals. Alice Springs Economic Profile 22 Alice Springs Business Survey Descriptive Results Small businesses Small businesses made up 40 per cent of all business surveyed. Together with micro businesses they contributed to 79 per cent of all businesses surveyed. • The majority of these businesses were operated by managers (58 per cent) with 38 per cent identifying themselves as owners • A large proportion of small businesses were also locally owned (70 per cent) • 65 per cent of the small businesses have been operating more than 10 years Overall • The majority have an annual turnover of between • The composition of Alice Springs businesses is as follows - • • • • • 1 per cent were in the $20 million category • 5 per cent of these businesses indicated they were 39 per cent micro business Indigenous. 40 per cent small business 20 per cent medium business Medium businesses 2 per cent large business 55 per cent of survey respondents were managers 43 per cent of survey respondents were owners 69 per cent of businesses were locally owned 7 per cent of businesses surveyed were Indigenous • 60 per cent of businesses have been operating for more than 10 years • 40 per cent of businesses employed between 5 – 19 staff • Two main categories of turn-over were identified – 24 per cent of business turnover was between $1 000 and $250 000 24 per cent was between $2 million and $20 million. Micro businesses Micro businesses predominantly operate in the retail trade sector (43 per cent). The following characteristics were identified in the survey - • 42 per cent have been in business for more than 10 years • 63 per cent were owner-operator • 86 per cent were locally owned • The majority of micro businesses have an annual turnover bracket of up to $250 000 a year • 85 per cent employ between two and four employees. $501 000 and $2.5 million Medium businesses made up 20 per cent of businesses in the survey. • They are scattered over retail trade, education and training and accommodation and food services sectors • The majority of the people surveyed identified themselves as managers in the business (81 per cent) as compared with only 16 per cent owners • 42 per cent of businesses were part of a national organisation whereas 39 per cent were locally owned • 85 per cent of these businesses have been operating for more than 10 years (85 per cent) followed by 12 per cent in the 5-10 year bracket • 88 per cent employ between 20 and 99 employees, while only 12 per cent employ 100 -100 employees • Nearly 80 per cent of business surveyed had a turnover of over $2 million, and of these 62 per cent were between the $2 - $20 million ranges. Only 4 per cent of business surveyed reported their turnover between $100 000 to $1 million. Large businesses Large businesses who participated in the survey were all represented by managers. • The organisations were predominantly part of a national organisation • They had mainly been operating for more than ten years • 86 per cent of these large businesses had a turnover of more than $20 million. Alice Springs Economic Profile 23 Alice Springs Business Survey The survey found that in Alice Springs, business confidence is high. This is further supported by Sensis© Business Index, February 2008, which indicated that Northern Territory recorded the highest business confidence of all states and territories. • While global uncertainty is volatile, the confidence of Alice Springs businesses still suggests a healthy outlook for the region. • Three key aspects which influence business expectations are: previous business performance future expectations business confidence. Business Confidence over the next twelve months • Overall 79 per cent of businesses surveyed indicated they were extremely or fairly confident of business prospects over the next twelve months. • Micro - 73 per cent of businesses identified they were confident of business prospects over the next twelve months. • Over the next twelve months, 81 per cent of the small businesses surveyed are confident of their overall business prospects. • Close to 90 per cent of the medium businesses are confident of their future business prospects • 85 percent of the large businesses are extremely or fairly confident of their future business prospects. Main industries captured by the survey were: retail trade accommodation and food services professional, scientific and technical services construction, education and training, and health care and social assistance. This is in line with ABS and ATO published data. Seasonality • Overall 58 per cent of business surveyed said they were affected by seasonality. The strongest trading occurs during July to September and weakest trading during January to March. • 57 per cent of micro business surveyed were affected by seasonality. Their weakest trading period being January to March and strongest being July to September. • 59 per cent of small businesses surveyed were affected by seasonality. Their weakest trading period being January to March and strongest being July to September. • Seasonality affected 58 per cent of medium businesses. While July to September was the strongest trading months, January to March was weakest. • 71 per cent of large businesses is affected by seasonality. Their major trading months were April to September and worst were January to March. Main Industries • Micro businesses - retail trade sector (43 per cent) • Small businesses - retail trade (40 per cent), accommodation and food services (11 per cent), and construction (8 per cent) • Medium businesses - are scattered over retail trade (15 per cent), education and training (12 per cent) and accommodation and food services (12 per cent) • Large businesses were engaged in: accommodation and food services (29 per cent) administrative and support services (14 per cent) education and training (14 per cent) public administration and safety (14 per cent) rental, hiring and real estate services (14 per cent) transport, postal and warehousing sectors (14 per cent). Alice Springs Economic Profile 24 Alice Springs Business Survey Survey respondants were asked to discuss the performance of their business in the previous year. The results are outlined below. Previous Business Performance (November 2006 – November 2007) Overall 61 per cent of businesses identified an increase in value of sales and an increase in the size of their workforce in the past year. This is supported by the decline in unemployment rate and high participation rate • 50 per cent increased their wages bill and prices charged • 44 per cent increased their profitability • 37 per cent identified an increase in their capital expenditure. Increased value of sales Sales • 57 per cent of micro businesses increased their value of sales • 61 per cent of small businesses increased their value of sales • 64 per cent of medium businesses increased their value of sales • 100 per cent of large businesses increased their 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% micro small medium large value of sales. Employed more people Workforce • 43 per cent of micro businesses increased their workforce • 69 per cent of small businesses increased their workforce • 77 per cent of medium businesses increased their workforce • 86 per cent of large businesses increased their 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% micro small medium large workforce. Increased wages Wages • 40 per cent of micro business increased their wages • 53 per cent of small businesses increased their wages bill 60% 50% 40% • 64 per cent of medium businesses increased their wages bill 30% 20% • 57 per cent of larger businesses increased their wages bill. 70% 10% 0% micro Alice Springs Economic Profile small medium large 25 Alice Springs Business Survey Increased prices in the last year Prices 70% • 41 per cent of micro business increased 60% prices charged 50% • 51 per cent of small business increased 40% prices charged 30% • 66 per cent of medium businesses increased 20% prices charged 10% 0% micro small medium large • 57 per cent of larger businesses increased prices charged. Increased profitability in the last year 80% Profitability 70% • 41 per cent of micro businesses increased 60% profitability 50% • 44 per cent of small businesses increased 40% profitability 30% 20% • 46 per cent of medium businesses reported 10% 0% micro small medium large an increase in their profitability over the last 12 months • 71 per cent of large businesses increased profitability. Increased investment in the last year 70% Investment 60% • 17 per cent of micro increased capital 50% expenditure 40% • 43 per cent of small business increased 30% capital expenditure 20% • 61 per cent of medium business increased 10% capital expenditure 0% micro small medium large • 57 per cent of large businesses increased capital expenditure Alice Springs Economic Profile 26 Alice Springs Business Survey Expectations for 2008 Overall The survey found that: • 74 per cent expect an increase in the value of sales • 57 per cent expect an increase in the size of their workforce • • • • 53 per cent expect an increase in wages bill 41 per cent in prices charged 61 per cent expect profitability to increase 35 per cent will increase their capital expenditure. Increase in value of sales Sales • 70 per cent of micro businesses expected to increase the value of sales • 77 per cent of small businesses expect to increase in the value of sales • 76 per cent of medium businesses to expect increase in the value of sales • 100 per cent of large businesses expect increase in the value of sales. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% micro Workforce small large Increase in size of workforce • 46 per cent of micro businesses expect to increase their workforce • 60 per cent of small businesses expected to increase their workforce 80% 70% 60% 50% • 72 per cent of medium businesses expected to increase their workforce • 57 per cent of large businesses expected to increase their workforce. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% micro Wages small medium large Increase in wages bill • 43 per cent of micro businesses expected to increase their wages • 55 per cent of small businesses expected to increase their wages • 66 per cent of medium businesses expect increase in their wages 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% • 57 per cent of large businesses expected to increase their wages. medium 10% 0% micro Alice Springs Economic Profile small medium large 27 Alice Springs Business Survey Increase in prices Prices 60% • 32 per cent of micro businesses expect to 50% increase prices 40% • 49 per cent of small businesses expect to 30% increase prices 20% • 45 per cent of medium businesses expect to 10% increase prices 0% micro small medium large • 43 per cent of large businesses expect to increase prices. Increase in profitability Profitability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% • 58 per cent of micro businesses expect to increase profitability • 63 per cent of small businesses expect to increase profitability • 64 per cent of medium businesses expect to increase profitability micro small medium large Increase in capital expenditure • 86 per cent of large businesses expect to increase profitability. Investment 60% • 50% 28 per cent of micro businesses expect to increase their capital expenditure • 35 per cent of small businesses expect to 40% increase their capital expenditure 30% • 47 per cent of medium businesses expect to 20% increase their capital expenditure 10% • 57 per cent of large businesses expect to 0% micro small medium large increase their capital expenditure. Alice Springs Economic Profile 28 Alice Springs Business Survey Opportunities for Growth • The respondents identified a number of economic opportunities that would improve business prospects in Alice Springs including: more tourists more airlines more skilled staff more contracts more land releases. While micro and small business indicated new mining developments as a larger economic opportunity, medium and large businesses identified the airport upgrade as a large economic opportunity. Business adaptability to varying sectoral opportunities is an indicator of robustness of the economy to adjust to its economic environment. Micro business identified residential/non-residential construction, new development opportunities, other tourism opportunities, the airport upgrade and defence support as the top five economic opportunities for them over the next 12 months. The top four business opportunities identified by small businesses were: • new mining developments (84 per cent) • residential and non – residential construction (81 per cent) • airport upgrade and other tourism opportunities Business Input Source Overall In varying degrees • 80 per cent of businesses source some of their material from Alice Springs • 45 per cent source some of their material from other parts of the Northern Territory • 80 per cent source some of their material from interstate • 25 per cent source some of their material from overseas • Wholesale trade and retail trade were identified as the major suppliers for business inputs by most businesses. (70 per cent each) • Desert Knowledge Precinct (64 per cent). New mining development (81 per cent), residential and non residential construction (78 per cent), other tourism opportunities were identified by medium businesses as opportunities over the next 12 months. The top economic opportunities for growth identified by large businesses, were: • • • • • • Overall When respondents were asked to nominate their customers’ locations the responses were: • 97 per cent of respondents had a customer base in Alice Springs. • 61 per cent of respondents had a customer base in other parts of the Northern Territory. airport upgrade (86 per cent) Desert Knowledge Precinct (86 per cent) defence support (86 per cent) new mining developments (86 per cent) Tanami road upgrade (85 per cent) Red Centre Way (85 per cent). Customer Base • 41 per cent of respondents had an interstate customer base. • 16 per cent had an international customer base. Each respondent nominated a different percentage for each location (from zero to 100 per cent). The sum of customers per location added to 100 per cent for each business. Alice Springs Economic Profile 29 For more information contact: Department of Business, Economic and Regional Development T: (08) 8951 8524 F: (08) 8951 8533 E: TBCAlice.DBERD@nt.gov.au A: Peter Sitzler Building 67 North Stuart Highway Alice Springs NT 0870