CHAPTER 4.1 4 NATIONAL INCOME MODELS (II) A 3-sector National Income Model A. Introduction (p.55) (1) Government can adjust expenditure (G) on goods and services and revenue from taxes (T) so as to affect national income. G is into the circular flow while T is from it. (2) G function G = G* ( function) (3) T function T = T* + tY ( (4) With tax, the Yd = B. Income determination function) . Not all income received can be spent. (p.56) (1) Algebraically (a) Income-expenditure approach Given C = a + cYd = a + c (Y-T), I = I*, G = G*, T = T* + tY Since E = C + I + G in a 3-sector model E = Since at equilibrium, Y = E Y = Exercise 1 Given C = 40 + 0.5(Y-T), I = 60, G = 55, T = 10 + 0.2Y What is the value of equilibrium income level ? (b) Injection-leakage approach Since Yd = Y - T and Yd = C + S Y - T = Y= Since in equilibrium, E = Y 1 (2) Graphically C. Multiplier for a 3-sector model k= (p.58) Remark : A change in autonomous tax will produce a smaller change in Y than an equal change in autonomous expenditure. E.g. Q. If both autonomous E and T increase by the same amount, equilibrium Y will increase, decrease or being unchanged ? D. Government’s role in affecting Y (p.60) (1) Equilibrium income (Y*) and potential income (Yf) Y* : it is at where = Yf : the level of national income attained by an economy when all in the economy are employed. Y* may not be equal to Yf ! (a) when Y* < Yf / gap - It measures the required amount of increase in the planned aggregate expenditure to the Y* to the level of Yf. - It exists when the level of aggregate expenditure is to maintain the full employment national income. (b) when Y* > Yf - It measures the required gap in the planned aggregate expenditure to lower the Y* to the level of Yf. - It exists when the level of aggregate expenditure is in to maintain the full employment national income. - By definition, Y* cannot exceed Yf, so beyond Yf, a higher value of national income only means a higher value. It is purely the result of increases in (we cannot assume a constant price level in this case). The real amount of national income stays at . 2 Concluding from (a) and (b) : (i) Whenever an economy has a DG, it experiences the problem of (ii) Whenever an economy has an IG, it experiences the problem of (iii) Whenever Y* = Yf, it has neither nor . . . Exercise 2 In an open economy with government intervention, which of the following will ensure full employment ? A. saving = investment B. saving = government expenditure C. saving + taxation + imports = investment + government expenditure + exports D. None of the above (2) The government can change the amount of G and T to achieve certain goals e.g., high employment, price stability in an economy. Fiscal policy : (I) discretionary , (II) built-in stabilizers (I) Discretionary fiscal policy It involves an change in G and T with intention of affecting the economy. (a) Expansionay when Y* Yf, either G or T (b) Contractionary when Y* Yf, either G or T Numerical illustration : refer to the textbook p.64 Conclusion : Keynesian national income determination models provide a theoretical rationale for government intervention in economic affairs at the macro level. The government is able to manage the level of aggregate expenditure. It can “fine-tune” the level of national income through various fiscal policies. (II) Built-in stabilizers (p.65) - They are tools of fiscal policy. - They tend to reduce economic during periods of low economic activity (or unemployment) and decreasing Y during periods of economic activity (or inflation). 3 - Some important built-in stabilizers : (a) proportional / progressive tax system (b) welfare schemes (c) government purchases (d) corporate and family savings Remarks : (i) Some stabilizers e.g. progressive tax system, welfare schemes create to work. (ii) Value of government expenditure multiplier is with proportional tax (t) ( ) the existence of t the responsiveness of an economy to discretionary changes in G and T. (iii) Built-in stabilizers can reduce fluctuations but when the economy is far below the Yf, fiscal policy is still necessary. (iv) They may reduce the speed of its recovery. Exercise 3 1. (a) ‘A proportional tax system is often praised for its built-in stabilizing effect. However, it reduces the responsiveness of an economy to discretionary fiscal policies.’ Explain. (b) In the light of (a), comment on the following statement : ‘ The desirability of employing a proportional tax system depends on the state of the economy.’ 2. Explain what is meant by “automatic stabilizers of fiscal policy.” Give at least 2 examples. (3) Other issues related to fiscal policy (p.69) (a) G or T ? (i) Location of effects G: T: (ii) Duration of time lag decision lag and executive lag G: T: (iii) Reversibility of the policy : easy to raise but difficult to cut : easier to change in both directions 4 (iv) Public’s reaction to short-term changes T: G: (b) Ways of financing government expenditure (i) raising taxes raising taxes => G can be raised but when T increases => Yd transfer of purchasing power from to (ii) printing more money if the economy is already at its full employment => purchasing power => C => (iii) internal debt (a transfer of purchasing power from lenders to itself) - if the debt is for current consumption (e.g. transfer payment to the unemployed) reduction in quantity of capital assets left to future generation and reduction in private investment future generations’ real income will be than otherwise - if the debt is on creating capital assets e.g. building or renovating infrastructure create future income Still, if the repayment of debt are made from tax revenue => taxpayers in future generations suffer a reduction in their (iv) external debt (transfer purchasing power from foreigners to itself) burden on future generations still depends on : (c) The concept of efficiency in taxation - Efficiency in taxation means minimum burden. - Whenever a tax distorts prices and hence people’s choices, it produces an . (Refer to the example on p.71) E. Balanced-budget multiplier (p.72) (1) Government multiplier (2) Tax multiplier (3) Balanced-budget multiplier (kb) kb = If t = 0, i.e., all taxes are autonomous (lump sum) kb = F. Problems of the simple Keynesian multiplier 5 Refer to p.67 Exercise 4 Explain why tax-financed government expenditure is expansionary. 4.2 A 4-sector National Income Model (p.75) A. Introduction (1) Economy conducts international . (2) - Export function is an autonomous function : X = - Exports are into the circular flow of income - Exports depend on : (a) the of commodities in the home economy as compared to those in other economics (b) trade policies of other countries e.g. free trade or protectionism measures (c) the level of national of other countries (d) conditions in the foreign exchange market. A change in foreign exchange rate will change the of all traded commodities. (3) Import function is an function : M = M* + mY Imports are out of the circular flow of income. B. Income determination (p.76) (1) Algebraically (a) Income-expenditure approach Exercise 5 Given C = 40 + 0.5Yd, I = 60, G = 55, T = 10 + 0.2Y, X = 20, M = 10 + 0.2Y Find out the value of equilibrium national income. (b) Injection-leakage approach = (2) Graphically (p.76) C. Multiplier for 4-sector model 6 k= D. Balance of trade Continue the question in Exercise 5, At Y = 200, the M = the balance of trade = X - M = (trade ) Y* may not guarantee external equilibrium - There is sometimes a conflict between external and internal equilibrium - It is also not necessary that internal equilibrium implies balance budget. ( T - G = = ) Exercise 6 1. In a closed economy with C, autonomous I and G so that in equilibrium Y = C + I + G. Suppose consumers of this economy are of 2 groups, half of them having C1 = 0.8 Y1 and the other half having C2 = 0.9Y2. (a) Find the aggregate consumption function if each group earns half of the aggregate income. Show your steps. (b) Assume some income is transferred from those with a low MPC to those with high MPC, (i) What will be the effect on equilibrium aggregate income ? Explain briefly. (ii) Suppose investment is dependent on the r. Briefly explain what kind of investment function will lead to results similar to the in (i). 2. Review Exercise 1 Q.14 4.3 Aggregate Demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply (AS) The basic AS and AD model (p.77) A. Introduction In macroeconomics, the general price level (P) and the aggregate output (Q) are determined by the interaction of and . (1) AD is the quantity of output that is at every price level. (2) AS is the quantity of output that will be at every price level. (3) The equilibrium price level and aggregate output occur when the 7 - If the equilibrium is below full employment, there is a gap. - If the equilibrium is above full employment, there is an gap. - If the equilibrium is at the full employment level, the economy is operating at employment. B. AD (1) Why does AD curve slopes downward ? (a) Income and wealth effect (or real-balance effect) (b) Substitution of foreign goods effect (c) Interest rate effect (2) Why does AD curve shift ? (a) Government expenditure, taxation, consumption, investment, export, import (b) Expectations about the future state of the economy (c) Populations (d) Money supply C. AS (p.78) (1) Three different points of view about the shape of AS : (a) Keynesian (kinked) AS curve (p.79 fig.8a) Explanation for such a shape : - The horizontal segment is caused by the existence of workers and idle resources. - It is possible to raise the real output by simply employing the unemployed worker at the existing wage rate and can leave the unchanged. - As income level (Qf) is reached, no matter what the prices are, the output cannot be increased anymore. Conclusion : (i) At an output level than the Qf, changes in AD can expand the real output without causing the general level to change. 8 (ii) Once the economy has reached Qf, any changes in AD will only raise the general while output remains at . Implication : In the simple Keynesian model, changes in AE (i.e.,AD) will result in changes in the level of national income. The AS is irrelevant to the determination of real national income. (b) Upward-sloping AS curve (SRAS) (p.79, fig.8b) Explanation : In the short run as the quantity of aggregate output supplied increases, the costs of production will go up as well (due to the law of ) price increases with rising output. (c) Classical AS curve (p.80, fig.8c) Explanation : If there are no idle money balances, money is used simply as a medium of exchange, when people earn income by supplying their factor services, the entire sum will be spent to buy exactly the same amount of goods and services. (Say’s Law : Supply creates its own demand - p.190) For the society as a whole, there will be no or . The AS curve is a vertical straight line starting from the level of income. (2) Why does AS curve shift ? (a) Factors of production prices of the factors of production rises (b) Technology and productivity Technology improvement (c) Expectation If expectation about the future state of the economy is more positive Note : The equilibrium price level and aggregate output occur when AD intersects AS. In other words, when AD or/and AS change, the equilibrium P and Q change, too. 9 D. Comparing AD-AS model with Keynesian model (1) The AD-AS model established the equilibrium level of national income through the intersection of the and curves. The income-expenditure model (Keynesian model) uses the intersection of the to find the equilibrium level of national income. (2) AD-AS model has the advantage of allowing the general price level to be determined and the AS curve to shift. Income-expenditure model assumes that the price level is and allows the components of the AE (i.e., C, I, G, net exports) to be examined. 4.4 Multiplier Effect With Changing Price Level (p.82) (1) Under Keynesian AS curve (a) when there is unemployment, the multiplier effect remains unchanged (same as that under simple Keynesian model). Q. Do you know why ? (b) when there is full employment, the multiplier will have no effect on real income when expenditure increases autonomously (AD shifts). Only and income will increase. (2) Under classical AS curve The multiplier effect will be the same as that in . (3) Upward-sloping AS curve A rise in AD will lead to a rise in purchasing power spending the size of the multiplier effect will be 10 consumers’ .