Early life determinants of overweight and obesity: a review of systematic reviews. Lorenzo Monasta1, G. David Batty2, Adriano Cattaneo3, Vittoria Lutje4, Luca Ronfani1, Frank J. van Lenthe5, Johannes Brug6 1 Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Via dell’Istria 65/1, Trieste, Italy. 2 Medical Research Council Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK; The Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, UK. 3 Health Services Research, Epidemiology and International Health Unit, Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Via dell’Istria 65/1, Trieste, Italy. 4 International Health Research Group, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, UK. 5 Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 6 EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Key words: obesity; determinants; children; review. Running head: Early life determinants of obesity Acknowledgments The project this paper is part of is being carried out with financial support from the Commission of the European Communities, SP5A-CT-2006-044128 “Health-promotion through Obesity Prevention across Europe (HOPE): an integrated analysis to support European health policy”. The study does not necessarily reflect the Commission’s views and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area. Authors’ contribution Lorenzo Monasta gathered all published and unpublished papers, carried out the analysis, including the AMSTAR score, and contributed to writing the different drafts of the paper. David Batty carried out the analysis, including the AMSTAR score, and contributed to writing the different drafts of the paper. Adriano Cattaneo was in charge of the overall project and wrote the different drafts of the paper, including the final version. Vittoria Lutje designed the search strategies and searched the databases. Luca Ronfani contributed to the analysis of results and to the evaluation and discussion of the AMSTAR scores. Frank van Lenthe designed and coordinated the HOPE project, and critically reviewed drafts of the paper. Johannes Brug designed and originated the HOPE project, and critically reviewed drafts of the paper. Correspondence: Lorenzo Monasta, Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Via dell’Istria 65/1, 34137 Trieste, Italy, Phone +39 040 3785 520, Fax +39 040 3785 260, E-mail monasta@burlo.trieste.it All authors declare that they have no conflict of interests. 2 Abstract Objective: To review the evidence for early life (from conception to five years of age) determinants of obesity. Design: Review of published systematic reviews. Data sources: Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, PsycINFO. Review methods: Identification of 22 eligible reviews from a database of 12,021 independent publications. Quality of selected reviews assessed using the AMSTAR score. Articles published after the reviews used to confirm results. Results: No review classified as high quality, 11 as moderate and 11 as low. Factors associated with later overweight and obesity: maternal diabetes, maternal smoking, rapid infant growth, no or short breastfeeding, obesity in infancy, short sleep duration, <30 minutes of daily physical activity, consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Other factors were identified as potentially relevant, though the size of their effect is difficult to estimate. Maternal smoking, breastfeeding, infant size and growth, short sleep duration and television viewing are supported by better quality reviews. Conclusions: It is difficult to establish a causal association between possible determinants and obesity, and the relative importance of each determinant. Future research should focus on early life interventions to confirm the role of protective and risk factors and to tackle the high burden obesity represents for present and future generations. 3 Introduction Concern is growing about the escalating prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents worldwide. In Europe, for instance, an estimated 20% are overweight with one third of these being considered obese.1 Prevalence has been rapidly increasing for more than a decade, in parallel with changes in dietary and physical activity patterns, with an unequal distribution across socioeconomic groups.2,3 Childhood obesity has well documented, serious adverse psychological, social and health consequences in childhood and later in life, especially as far as cardiovascular disease,4 metabolic syndrome, and associated mortality, are concerned.5,6 Other, more subtle, negative sequelae have been described, with overweight adolescents reporting lower likelihood of marriage and educational attainment and income as adults,7,8 presumably as a result of discrimination in their professional and social lives. To address an epidemic, it is crucial to monitor prevalence and trends, to review its determinants, and to identify effective strategies and interventions.9 Given the suggestion that foetal life, infancy and early childhood may be a particularly sensitive period for predicting obesity later on,10 a work package within the Health promotion through Obesity Prevention across Europe (HOPE) project (http://www.hopeproject.eu/) focussed on children under five years of age. Having completed an analysis of current prevalence and trends,11 the objective of this paper is to review, describe and discuss the evidence for early life (from conception to five years of age) determinants of overweight and obesity. It is hoped that this review, in conjunction with a parallel review on potentially effective interventions, will contribute to the development and implementation of policies and strategies aiming at controlling the obesity epidemic in countries of the European Union (EU). Methods Scope of the review and theoretical underpinnings 4 Although ultimately the result of an imbalance between energy intake and expenditure, overweight and obesity are associated with a complex set of upstream determinants. These may act during foetal life, infancy and childhood, and may be influenced by genetic and other biological factors, as well as micro- and macro-environment factors, that have been classified into four categories: physical, economical, political and sociocultural.12 Each possible determinant may have, in turn, more distal determinants, located in multiple layers and belonging to different categories. To find our way into this maze and to construct a model that would facilitate a more detailed search to be applied to different electronic databases, we conducted, in January 2008, a scoping search for factors related to overweight and obesity in children under five years of age using PubMed. We retrieved in this way 1,371 articles; of these, 244 were reviews. A quick analysis of the abstracts of about 100 articles and reviews allowed to construct a simplified conceptual model that we used for our systematic search. We also noticed that systematic reviews on a specific determinant or group of determinants were already available. This led to the decision to carry out a review of existing published systematic reviews. This approach is becoming increasingly common to summarise the extensive scientific knowledge on widely explored research topics,13-15 and has already been used for the association between infant feeding and obesity.16 Systematic reviews were included if they studied determinants of overweight and/or obesity acting on children from conception to five years of age. Systematic search and selection criteria Given that the inclusion of a term for ‘review’ or ‘systematic review’ may lead to the unreliable identification of the target item, we selected systematic reviews once the main, wide-ranging search had been completed. The electronic search took place in April 2008; a range of databases was used: Medline (from its inception in January 1966), Embase (from 1980); Web of Science (Social Sciences Citation index/Science Citation Index, from 1970); the Cochrane Library (Issue 2 2008) – including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Database of 5 Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE); CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature; from 1982); and PsycINFO (from 1887). The Medline search strategy reported in Table 1, adapted and amended as necessary for the remaining databases, was used to retrieve 21,436 hits. Citations were catalogued and managed, including removal of duplicates, with Reference Manager. The final database consisted of 12,021 independent publications from which 589 reviews were retrieved by screening titles and abstracts; of these, 17 were systematic reviews of early life determinants of overweight and obesity. In parallel, by searching titles, abstracts and keywords with the terms “systematic review” or “meta-analysis”, 18 additional systematic reviews were identified. After duplicate removal and including 4 systematic reviews retrieved from personal files, bibliographies of selected papers and consultation with experts, we reached a total of 23 systematic reviews (Figure 1). One of these was excluded because no anthropometric measures nor prevalence of overweight or obesity were used as outcome.17 We therefore based our final analysis on 22 systematic reviews (Table 2). Data extraction and analysis Data were extracted from hard copies of the systematic reviews and the quality of all retrieved reviews was independently evaluated by two authors (LM, GDB) using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) protocol.18-20 This is an 11-item tool that measures the review’s design, its search strategy, the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the quality assessment of included studies, the methods used to combine the findings, the likelihood of publication bias, and the statements of conflict of interest. The maximum score is 11, scores of 0-4 indicating low quality, 58 moderate quality, and 9-11 high quality. If the total scores of the independent evaluation differed by one or two points, the average was calculated. If the differences were wider, a third author (LR) carried out an additional independent evaluation. The differences were discussed and agreement was reached on the final score. We did not attempt to pool the results from systematic reviews together: comparison groups were different and, more importantly, the variables, their definitions, 6 and adjustment methods differed across reviews. Some of the included reviews, however, presented the results of a meta-analysis, as indicated in the last column of Table 2, and in such cases, pooled estimates were extracted. Further search for updates Having completed the review of reviews, we systematically searched the database of 12,021 independent publications for articles published after the date of the most recent systematic review for each possible determinant or group of determinants. In this way, we retrieved 317 papers. Only 58 of these papers had overweight and obesity outcomes, and focussed on early life determinants. These 58 papers reported the results of 33 longitudinal studies, two randomised controlled trials, two case-control studies, one twin study, two narrative reviews and 18 cross-sectional studies; these were included only if the sample size was larger than 200. Of the 58 papers, 14 were on genetic and 11 on biological factors, 13 on breastfeeding and other maternal factors, 7 on family, 8 on neighbourhood and community, and 14 on society factors. All were read in full and their results were used to update those of the review of systematic reviews. Discussion and conclusions, however, will be based on systematic reviews, newer studies were used only to confirm or explain the results of the systematic reviews, or to suggest new hypotheses. Results All the 22 reviews but one21 were published between 2004 and 2008. Apart from a World Health Organization (WHO) report,22 a technology assessment report,23 and an entirely dedicated journal supplement,24 all the reviews were published as articles in 13 peer reviewed journals. All papers were published in English except for one in Portuguese,25 a language three of the authors can read. Among the 22 corresponding authors, ten were from the USA, four from the UK, three from Germany, two from Brazil and one each from Australia, Greece, and WHO. Not all the systematic 7 reviews report the origin and setting of the included studies. When they do, the original studies were mostly conducted in North America and Western Europe. Australasia is present with one or two studies in at least half of the reviews. Five reviews report data from developing countries and five more from China and Japan. Based on the AMSTAR score, 11 reviews were classified as low and 11 as moderate quality; none as high quality; the average score was 4.9. Three of the four reviews with the highest scores (7 and 8) focused on the role of breastfeeding, while three of the four with the lowest scores (below 4) centred on socioeconomic aspects. Nine reviews dealt with the relation between mother and child, in particular with breastfeeding, and with maternal conditions or behaviours during pregnancy; six explored family related risk and protective factors, three infant size and growth, three society related issues, two neighbourhood environmental factors, and one inherited traits. The 58 papers used to update the results of the systematic reviews were carried out in North America (29), Western Europe (19), Australasia (4), China (3), Latin America (2) and Belarus (1). Genetics The systematic review by Parsons and colleagues (1999) on childhood predictors of adult obesity summarized the findings of studies that had examined the inheritance of this phenotype.26 The authors concluded, on page S5, that “parent obesity is an important factor in predicting adult obesity of offspring, and that offspring of obese parents who themselves are fatter in childhood may be at particular risk.” A significant association was found in three out of three longitudinal studies and in all other types of studies (family and sibling, twin and adoption studies). More recent studies, published between 1999 and 2008, confirmed a significant heritability component of several anthropometric indexes including parental height, weight, body mass index (BMI) and percent body fat.27-34 Maternal birthweight has also been shown to be significantly associated with offspring birthweight.35,36 However, the size of this genetic contribution to childhood obesity has not been thoroughly investigated. Maes and collaborators, in their review of twin, adoption and family 8 studies, estimated that 20% to 90% of the variation in BMI may be explained by genetic factors.37 More recently, Farooqi estimated the heritability of BMI at around 40% to 70%.38 Maternal factors In a systematic review by Huang and colleagues, four out of six studies found a higher prevalence of overweight or obesity (four different definitions) associated with pregestational and gestational diabetes. However, only the highest quality study showed an adjusted significant association (OR 1.4; 95%CI 1.0-1.9). Regarding the association between prenatal exposure to maternal smoking and childhood overweight and obesity, all eight included studies reported significant results with OR ranging from 1.52 to 2.22.39 According to the authors, these factors, as well as maternal malnutrition early in pregnancy,40 may act through programming of structural and functional abnormalities of various endocrine systems. A similar estimate of the size of the association between maternal smoking and childhood obesity, unaffected by adjustment for confounding and with evidence of a dose-response relationship, was found in a systematic review of 14 studies by Oken et al (pooled adjusted OR 1.50; 95%CI 1.36-1.65).41 Seven of the 14 studies were also included in Huang’s review. Birth weight, infant size and growth A systematic review by Martins and Carvalho found a positive association between birth weight and obesity in infancy and childhood in most of the 20 studies reviewed,42 an observation that accords with studies conducted subsequently in different countries on children followed up through infancy and childhood.43-50 The strength of this association tended to diminish following control for a greater range of covariates, but, in general, remained significant at conventional levels. However, the authors emphasize the existence of inconsistencies in the relation between birthweight and childhood obesity which might be explained by the lack of consideration of other factors in the childhood obesity risk framework. As an example from newer studies, infants who have been 9 growth restrained in utero, as indexed by their lower birth weight, tend to gain weight, or “catch up”, more rapidly during the early postnatal period, which leads to increased central fat deposition and greater insulin resistance.51,52 More recent evidence also suggests that the effect of maternal nutrition on foetal growth can be programmed during the periconceptional period, thus contributing to an intergenerational cycle of overweight and obesity.53 A systematic review by Baird and colleagues assessed the association between infant size or growth and subsequent overweight or obesity in 24 studies meeting their inclusion criteria (22 cohort and two case-control studies).54 Of these, 18 assessed the association between infant size and subsequent overweight or obesity, most showing that infants defined as obese or at the highest end of the distribution for weight or BMI were at increased risk of obesity, with Odds Ratios (OR) or Risk Ratios (RR) between 1.35 and 9.38, a finding confirmed in subsequent studies.55,56 The 18 studies, however, used a wide variety of definitions of overweight and obesity. Ten of the 24 studies assessed the association between infant growth and subsequent overweight or obesity, and most showed that infants who grew more rapidly were at increased risk at ages ranging from 4.5 to 20 years (OR or RR from 1.06 to 5.70). The associations were consistent at different ages and for people born over a period from 1927 to 1994. Another systematic review, by Monteiro and Victora, included 16 studies;57 13 of these reported on early rapid growth and found significant associations with later overweight or adiposity (five of these studies were included also in the systematic review by Baird; no OR or RR reported). There was wide variability in the indicators used for defining rapid growth as well as overweight or obesity. The age range in which weight or adiposity were measured ranged from 3 to 70 years. The most frequent definition for rapid growth was a z-score change greater than 0.67 in weight-for-age between two different ages in childhood. In a narrative review not included in our review, Ong and collaborators identified 21 studies with data on the association between rapid weight gain up to two years of age and subsequent risk of obesity.58 All these studies, and other studies published afterwards,59-68 showed that rapid weight gain is consistently associated with increased risk of obesity, but the predictive ability of different weight 10 gain cut-offs needs to be tested. Infant feeding Seven systematic reviews, six of which were classified as of moderate quality using the AMSTAR score, examined the association between infant feeding and obesity later in life. Arenz and colleagues reviewed nine studies meeting their inclusion criteria, with over 69,000 participants.69 They found that breastfeeding had an inverse association with childhood obesity (pooled adjusted OR 0.78; 95%CI 0.71-0.85). Four studies in the review reported an inverse dose-response effect of breastfeeding duration on the risk of obesity. Similar results have been found in studies conducted subsequent to this review,70-74 while other studies found no association between breastfeeding and obesity later in life until adulthood.75-78 Owen and collaborators examined the association between breastfeeding and BMI throughout life.79 Despite a significant difference in the mean BMI for breastfed compared with formula fed infants (lower BMI for breastfed infants: -0.04; 95%CI -0.05, -0.02), the adjustment for possible confounders (socioeconomic status, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal BMI) in 11 studies removed the effect. A similar reduction of the association between breastfeeding and obesity after controlling for confounders was reported also by other researchers.80,81 In a subsequent review, Owen and collaborators compiled 28 studies providing OR estimates on a total of almost 299,000 subjects.82 Breastfeeding appeared to be associated with reduced risk of obesity if compared with formula feeding (pooled OR 0.87; 95%CI 0.85-0.89). Adjustment for three major potential confounders (parental obesity, maternal smoking and social class) was reported in six studies and the OR, even if closer to one, remained statistically significant (pooled adjusted OR 0.93; 95%CI 0.88-0.99). Harder and colleagues reviewed the literature using exclusively formula-fed subjects as the referent.83 The duration of breastfeeding was inversely associated with the risk of overweight (regression coefficient 0.94, 95%CI 0.89-0.98) and the results were confirmed using categorical analysis (<1 month of breastfeeding: OR 1.00; 95%CI 0.65-1.55; 1–3 months: OR 0.81; 95%CI 0.74-0.88; 4–6 months: OR 0.76; 95%CI 0.67-0.86; 7–9 11 months: OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.55-0.82; >9 months: OR 0.68; 95%CI 0.50-0.91). In their systematic review on maternal and infant health outcomes of breastfeeding,84 Ip and colleagues analysed three already cited reviews,83,85,86 emphasizing how sensitivity analyses carried out by Arenz and Owen showed a continuous reduction of the effect of breastfeeding on overweight and obesity when more factors were accounted for in the analysis. They also underlined how exclusive breastfeeding was not considered in most of the included studies. Horta and collaborators, in a systematic review published by the WHO,22 obtained 39 estimates of the effect of breastfeeding on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. In a random-effect model, breastfed individuals were less likely to be overweight and/or obese, with a pooled OR of 0.78 (95%CI 0.72-0.84). Control for confounding, age at assessment, year of birth, and study design did not modify the effect of breastfeeding. Finally, in their systematic review, Plagemann and Harder found that breastfeeding is associated with decreased risk of overweight, decreased blood cholesterol and blood pressure, and a reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes later in a child’s life.87 All the studies included in these systematic reviews on the association between breastfeeding and obesity, however, were observational. The only randomised trial that looked at the effect of an intervention on breastfeeding rates and duration, and subsequently at the effects of breastfeeding on obesity, did not report a lower prevalence of adiposity (measured as BMI and waist or hip circumference) among children in the intervention group compared to the control group.88 Randomization, however, was applied to clusters, as opposed to individuals, and looking at the effect of breastfeeding on obesity was not among the primary objectives of the study.89 Sleep duration Two reviews explored the association between sleep duration and weight gain. The first one found that short sleep duration at age 3-4 years is independently associated with weight gain and overweight or obesity at later ages (7 and 10 years).90 The authors, however, stated that major limitations in study design, mainly related to the definition of normal sleep duration and to the 12 possibility of reverse causality, preclude definitive conclusions. The second review summarised the findings of 17 observational studies and found that children with shorter sleep duration had a 58% (pooled OR 1.58; 95%CI 1.26-1.98) higher risk for overweight or obesity, and children with shortest sleep duration had an even higher risk (pooled OR 1.92; 95%CI 1.15-3.20) when compared with children having the longest sleep duration.91 For each hour increase in sleep, the pooled OR for overweight or obesity was 0.91 (95%CI 0.84-1.00). A significant inverse linear dose-response effect could be found only in young children (<10 years-old) or for combined overweight and obesity, but not for children as a whole group. There was also a significant gender difference, boys having a stronger inverse association than girls (OR 2.50 vs. 1.24). Studies published after these reviews support their conclusions: in the US Project Viva, for instance, infants who slept for less that 12 hours per day during infancy experienced a greater prevalence of overweight by age 3 years.92 Family Considering that children exposed to intimate partner violence may be at increased risk for adverse mental and behavioural health sequelae, a systematic review analysed the results of 22 studies and found no evidence that abuse on mothers had an association with general health, use of health services, breastfeeding, or weight gain in their children.93 More recently, a series of studies have related obesity in adulthood to early life experience of abuse and/or ill-treatment.94-96 In another study, 3-year old children experiencing subtle neglect, defined as a failure by the parent to engage in behaviours that supported their offspring’s development, such as inadequate supervision, had a higher prevalence of obesity than their non-neglected peers.97 Two other systematic reviews examined the association of obesity with family social factors. In the first, by Parsons and colleagues, which accords with more recent work,98,99 six out of nine studies found a lower risk of fatness associated with higher socioeconomic status in childhood as determined by parental occupation, education, family income, or a combination of these three factors.100 The influence of other social factors, such as family size, number of parents at home, and child-care, however, had 13 not been well researched. In the second, limited to the USA, a higher prevalence of overweight and obesity was found in American native Indians, Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic Blacks, in lower socioeconomic status groups, and in children living in rural working class, exurban and mixed-ethnicity urban areas.101 An extensive narrative review had previously found a strong direct association between socioeconomic status and obesity among men, women, and children in developing but not in developed countries.102 In a related field, data are emerging regarding the role of food insecurity or insufficiency, even in high income countries, in the aetiology of childhood obesity. Defined as episodes of a family running short of food due to inadequate money, paradoxically, its occurrence appears to be associated with an increased risk of overweight among Canadian children under five years of age,103 perhaps because of overconsumption of mass manufactured, high energy foods which are lower in cost that healthier alternatives. It is plausible that such an association could be explained by residual confounding due to socioeconomic status. Physical activity and sedentary behaviour A systematic review by Marshall and colleagues looked at television viewing and video/computer games and found a statistically significant association with body fatness among children and youth and a negative association with physical acitivity.104 These associations were small in magnitude but remained virtually unchanged after correcting for common sources of bias, suggesting mediabased inactivity to be implicated in the increased prevalence of overweight and obesity. The association between inactivity due to television viewing and childhood obesity is robust and confirmed by other studies,105-112 including a non-systematic review113 and an intervention study.114 However, a perennial problem in interpreting many of these studies is their cross-sectional design which raises the issue of reverse causality: while it is of course possible that the sedentary nature of television viewing is a predictor of weight gain, it is likely that obesity in its own right may be related to television viewing because sports or active play are more prohibitive for the obese child. After the publication of this review, a longitudinal study on 871 New Zealand children followed up 14 to age 7 years found that sedentary activity time was a predictor of overweight and obesity.115 An association between a “snacking and sedentary” lifestyle was positively associated with overweight in children 3 to 6 years of age also in France; in addition, a “varied food and physically active” pattern was inversely correlated with overweight in older children 7 to 11 years of age.116,117 A study that tracked activity and sedentary behaviour in Iowa between 1998 and 2004 in 379 children aged 5.6 years on average at baseline, found that children maintaining a high degree of vigorous activity and low levels of television viewing were less likely than peers to be in the upper quartile for adiposity – measured with whole body, dual energy x-ray absorptiometry – at follow-up, and were less likely to gain adiposity during the study period.118,119 In another longitudinal study, children in the highest tertile of average daily activity, monitored with electronic accelerometers from age 4 to 11 years, had consistently smaller gains in BMI and other measures of adiposity.120 Using data from the USA, a paper reported a significant association between increasing levels of physical activity and lower risk of overweight and obesity in 3 to 4 years old children followed for three years.121 In the same country, less than 30 minutes of physical activity or active play per day was associated with an increased risk of overweight and obesity (OR 1.80; 95%CI 1.10-2.94) in 316 children 2 to 4 years of age.122 Society and built environment A systematic review explored the relationship between built environment and obesity in children 3 to 18 years of age.123 In the 20 studies analysed – three with data on pre-school children – it found no difference in the average distance to a play space by BMI status, and no association between proximity to playgrounds and fast-food restaurants and risk of overweight. Lower prices for fruits and vegetables predicted lower gains in BMI over a 3-year period. Social models of consumption may affect eating, drinking and sedentary behaviours. A systematic review selected 30 publications (15 cross-sectional, 10 prospective, and 5 experimental studies) to relate the consumption of sugarsweetened beverages with weight gain in children 1.5 to 19 years.124 It found a positive association 15 between greater intakes of sugar-sweetened beverages and weight gain and obesity in both children and adults. Later studies provide mixed support for these conclusions: while beverages with added sugar125 and those that are naturally sugar-rich but otherwise unsweetened (e.g., fruit juice)126 appear to increase the risk of developing obesity or promote weight gain in pre-school children, other data show null effects.127,128 Another systematic review explored the association between childhood obesity and food advertising on Australian television and found that childhood obesity rates had tripled since 1985, mirrored by increases in consumption of energy-dense foods and advertising of these foods on children’s television programmes.129 Finally, a systematic review examined the distribution of obesity by geographical location, income, age and sex in the Mediterranean region during the last decade.130 The review covered nine countries in Europe, five in the Middle East and three in Africa. In a meta-analysis of 102 articles, it showed that the prevalence of obesity was not significantly different by sex nor by levels of income. The results applied to both children (≤18 years) and adult populations. Among children living in Europe, however, the prevalence of obesity was higher than among children living in the Middle East. Discussion The results of this review of systematic reviews indicate that breastfeeding may be a protective factor for later overweight and obesity, while obesity in infancy, rapid infant growth, maternal diabetes, maternal smoking, short sleep duration, less than 30 minutes of daily physical activity, and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages may be considered as risk factors. Parental obesity, restricted or excessive intra-uterine growth, small or large size at birth, television viewing, food insecurity and low socioeconomic status can also be included among risk factors, although it is difficult to estimate the size of their effect. Among all these possible determinants, maternal smoking, breastfeeding, infant size and growth, short sleep duration and television viewing, including video and computer games, are those supported by better quality systematic reviews. 16 It is also difficult to disentangle the complex web of associations and of reciprocal influence of all these factors, tentatively represented in Figure 2. Maternal overweight, for example, can have metabolic consequences, through nutrition in pregnancy, on the development of the foetus, on birth weight and on infant growth in the breastfed child. Moreover, for an obese mother, the decision to breastfeed can have psychological and physiological implications, and obese mothers are known to breastfeed less.131 Maternal overweight may have a bearing on childhood obesity also through diabetes and genetic factors. Finally, maternal obesity is associated with lower socioeconomic status and education, which in turn acts indirectly on childhood obesity through a series of other factors, including not only those related to the child’s diet but also physical activity. Maternal smoking is another example of the different pathways that lead to childhood obesity through direct effects on maternal and foetal nutrition during pregnancy, through its association with less breastfeeding,132 and through its indirect links with socioeconomic status and education. It is also an example of the multiple effects an intervention may have. The decision to quit or not smoking during pregnancy can have an impact on the development of the foetus, but also on breastfeeding, on infant growth and, through socioeconomic status, on other important factors (e.g. more money available to buy healthier foods), let alone other health outcomes. Another difficulty is the interpretation of an independent role of breastmilk on patterns of child growth as separated from the socio-cultural effect of the decision to breastfeed.133 Behavioural, hormonal and nutritional mechanisms seem to play a role in explaining the inverse association between breastfeeding and childhood overweight and obesity. Lower protein intake, lower plasmainsulin concentrations, and bioactive factors in breastmilk could have a protective effect against fat deposition in breastfed infants. However, factors related to the socio-economic circumstances of the mother might be influencing, at least to some extent, both her decisions regarding breastfeeding and the child nutritional status. The authors of the systematic reviews on breastfeeding and obesity tend 17 to consider that even if the association is not strong, breastfeeding appears to consistently affect child weight and reduce the risk of obesity. Others note how, according to the growth acceleration hypothesis, faster postnatal growth induced by formula, as compared to breastmilk, programs the major components of the metabolic syndrome, including obesity.134 Breastfeeding is not the only possible determinant for which it is difficult to establish a causal association with obesity. It is difficult to identify the mechanisms that lead to obesity also for other possible determinants, such as short sleep duration or lower socioeconomic status, either because these mechanisms are biologically unclear or because there are too many possible mediators between determinants and outcome. Moreover, none of the studies and reviews conducted so far has been able to include in a multivariate model, that would anyway result very complex, all the factors potentially contributing to obesity. Finally, even if a determinant or group of determinants were confirmed as causally associated with obesity, we would still have to identify those associated with the increase in the rates of obesity. The large number of possible determinants means also that for each of them the association may be weak. i.e. the risk in exposed people may be not much higher than the risk in non exposed. However, even acting on a small attributable risk may have a large effect on the outcome if the risk factor is highly prevalent in a population, like the low rate of exclusive breastfeeding is, for example, in many European countries.135 Also, some possible determinants may be more important than others for the simple reason that it may be easier to implement an effective intervention. For example, it may be easier to increase the prevalence and duration of exclusive breastfeeding that to reduce the incidence of large or small birthweight, or it may be easier to act on parental physical activity levels than on television viewing by children even though the former is less directly associated with childhood obesity than the latter. Finally, the impact of an intervention on a potential determinant may have different effects in different populations owing to the relative 18 weight of that determinant within the complex web of other determinants in different settings. As far as strengths and weaknesses for the 22 systematic reviews are concerned, we can mention: lack of clear research question, lack of independent searches and assessment of studies to be included, lack of thorough search in all possible databases, little exploration of grey literature, studies not always tabulated, and use of definitions, reference populations and cut-offs for overweight and obesity that are not standardised. In addition, almost all the individual studies included in the systematic reviews are observational and suffer from the problem of potential confounding. This is particularly well illustrated for breastfeeding or smoking, where the characteristics of mothers who smoke or elect to breastfeed (and those of the offspring born to them) differ consistently and markedly from those that do not; similar problems with confounding were described for different outcomes.136 Statistical adjustment can be made to identify independent effects but does not completely eliminate the problem, in particular when data are not available for all potential confounders, especially those associated with socioeconomic status. A multiple regression approach, therefore, can still result in residual confounding that can only be removed with a randomised controlled trial design. This, however, is not applicable for many of the potential determinants of obesity. To conclude, we think that we have put together most of the knowledge currently available on potential early life determinants of overweight and obesity. 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Papandreou C, Mourad TA, Jildeh C, Abdeen Z, Philalithis A, Tzanakis N. Obesity in Mediterranean region (1997-2007): a systematic review. Obes Rev 2008;9:389-99. 151. Parsons TJ, Power C, Logan S, Summerbell CD. Childhood predictors of adult obesity: a systematic review. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord 1999;23 Suppl 8:S1-107. 152. Patel SR, Hu FB. Short sleep duration and weight gain: a systematic review. Obesity 2008;16:643-53. 28 Titles and legends of figures Figure 1. Flow of citations for the identification of systematic reviews on determinants of overweight and obesity in children. Figure 2. The complex web of potential determinants of overweight and obesity in children. 29 Table 1. Search strategy in Medline. 1. (Obesity/epidemiology"[Mesh] OR "Obesity/ethnology"[Mesh] OR "Obesity/etiology"[Mesh] OR "Obesity/genetics"[Mesh] OR "Obesity/prevention and control"[Mesh] OR "Obesity/statistics and numerical data"[Mesh] OR "Obesity/therapy"[Mesh]) 2. Weight gain [Mesh] 3. Obesity OR obese OR obesogenic ti, ab 4. “Weight gain” OR overweight OR “over weight” OR “weight change” ti, ab 5. (BMI OR “body mass index”) AND (gain OR change OR increase*) ti, ab 6. 1 OR 2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 5 7. child OR children OR child* OR infant* OR pediatr* OR pre-school OR preschool 8. 6 AND 7 9. “Epidemiological factors” [Mesh] 10. “Risk Factors” [Mesh] 11. (("Breast Feeding"[Mesh] OR "Smoking"[Mesh]) OR "Birth Weight"[Mesh]) OR ("Fetal Development"[Mesh] OR "Embryonic and Fetal Development"[Mesh]) 12. Smoking AND (pregnan* OR gestation*) ti, ab 13. nutrition ti, ab 14. Television/statistics and numerical data [Mesh] 15. physical AND (activ* OR inactiv*) ti, ab 16. (maternal OR parental) AND (nutr* OR obes*) ti, ab 17. Randomized controlled trial* ti, ab, pt 18. CASE-CONTROL STUDIES [Mesh] 19. COHORT STUDIES [Mesh] 20. review pt 21. 9 OR 10 OR 11 OR 12 OR 13 OR 14 OR 15 OR 16 OR 17 OR 18 OR 19 OR 20 22. 8 AND 21 30 Table 2. Included systematic reviews and their characteristics. Citation (year) [Amstar score] Arenz137 (2004) [8] Databases searched (years) [number of studies] MedLine 1966–2003 Embase 1988-2003 Cochrane 2003 Issue 2 Google [9] MedLine 1966-2001 PsycInfo 1887-2000 CINAHL 1982-2000 Sociological Abstracts 1952-2000 [22] MedLine 1966-2005 Embase 1980-2005 [24] Exposures Outcomes Age range Summary of results [MA] if a meta-analysis was carried out breastfeeding, exclusivity, duration 2 to 26 years for follow-up intimate partner violence (IPV) different measures of overweight and obesity weight, anthropometry Breastfeeding has a small but consistent protective effect against obesity (adjusted OR 0.78; 95%CI 0.71-0.85). A dose-dependent effect of breastfeeding duration was demonstrated in 4/8 studies. [MA] No clear association between IPV and weight gain. infant size, infant growth obesity after infancy 3 months to 2 years for exposure 2 to 70 years for outcome Carter140 (2006) [1.5] MedLine ScienceDirect Google [not specified] food advertising childhood obesity Not clearly stated Chen141 (2008) [5.5] MedLine 1980-2007 [17] sleep duration (different according to age group: <5, 5-10, ≥10) childhood overweight and obesity (BMI) 0 to 18 years for exposure and outcome Harder83 (2005) [7] MedLine 1966-2003 CINAHL 1982-2003 Serfile 2002-2003 Embase 1989-2003 [17] MedLine 1966-2006 [33] breastfeeding duration overweight and obesity later in life (6 months to 33 years) overweight and obesity later in 6 months to 33 years for outcome Bair-Merritt138 (2006) [5.5] Baird139 (2005) [5.5] Horta22 (2007) breastfeeding, exclusivity, duration 0 to 6 years for exposure and outcome 1 to 66 years of age for Four of six studies found that infants who had been obese were more likely to be obese at 5-7 years of age (OR ranging from 1.35 to 9.38). Four of five studies found a significant association between larger size in infancy and obesity at 9-18 years (from a RR of 1.35 to an OR of 3.00). Seven of ten studies found that more rapid growth in infancy was significantly associated with obesity at ages ranging from 4.5 to 20 years (ORs 1.17 to 5.70). Associations appeared to be independent of age at obesity assessment and epoch of data collection (pre and post World War II). No evidence that children up to six years of age understand the persuasive intent of advertising. Thus not possible to establish a relation between food advertising and obesogenic behaviours at last up to the age of six. Children with shorter sleep duration have higher risk of overweight or obesity if compared with children having longer sleep duration (pooled OR 1.58; 95%CI 1.26-1.98). A significant linear doseresponse relationship was only found in <10 years-old but not for all children. There was a gender difference: inverse association stronger in boys than girls (OR=2.50 vs. 1.24). [MA] Duration of breastfeeding inversely associated with the risk of overweight: 4% decrease in risk per one month (OR 0.96; 95%CI 0.94-0.98). Definitions of overweight and age had no influence. [MA] In a random-effects model including 39 estimates of the potential effect of breastfeeding, breastfed individuals were less likely to be 31 [6.5] life outcome Huang142 (2007) [4] MedLine 1975-2005 MDConsult 1975-2005 [6 maternal diabetes] [1 maternal malnutrition] [8 maternal smoking] maternal diabetes, smoking and malnutrition childhood overweight and obesity 5 to 21 years for outcome Ip143 (2007) [6] MedLine 1966-2005 CINAHL 1982-2005 Cochrane Nov 2005 [3 systematic reviews included in this Table] breastfeeding, exclusivity, duration childhood overweight and obesity 0 to 33 years for outcome (see the three systematic reviews cited) Malik144 (2006) [4.5] MedLine 1966-2005 [30] sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) childhood overweight and obesity 1.5 to 19 years for exposure and outcome Marshall104 (2004) [5.5] PsycInfo 1985-2002 SportDiscus 1985-2002 MedLine 1985-2002 Ingenta 1985-2002 [30] media use and video/computer games use body fatness (BMI, skinfold, other) and physical activity 3 to 18 years for exposure and outcome Martins145 (2006) [4] 1st step: MedLine 1993-2003 Adolec 1993-2003 LILACS 1993-2003 2nd step MedLine 1993-2004 [20] MedLine 1966-2004 [16] birth weight overweight and obesity 0 to 7 years for outcome rapid growth in infancy overweight and obesity (3 to 70 0 to 18 years for exposure Monteiro146 (2005) considered as overweight and/or obese, with a pooled OR of 0.78 (95%CI 0.72–0.84). Control for confounding, age at assessment, year of birth, and study design did not modify the effect of breastfeeding. Higher prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity among offspring of diabetic mothers (4/6 studies). One significant adjusted OR (1.4; 95%CI 1.0-1.19) and one significant unadjusted OR (3.7; 95%CI 1.1-12.6) only for large for gestational age infants. The only study on maternal malnutrition reported an association between malnutrition in early, not late, gestation and childhood obesity (OR 1.9; 95%CI 1.5-2.4). All eight studies of prenatal exposure to maternal smoking showed significantly increased odds of childhood overweight and obesity (OR range: 1.5 to 2.0). Reports on three reviews included in this table (Arenz, Owen, Harder). The magnitude of the effect of breastfeeding on later obesity is reduced when more factors are adjusted for in the analyses. The observed association between breastfeeding and a reduced risk of obesity could also reflect selective reporting and publication bias. One of four cross-sectional studies including children under five show a significant association between obese subjects and consumption of SSB (p<0.05). One of two prospective studies including under fives report an association between SSB and overweight only in children at risk of overweight or overweight at startup (after 1 year OR 1.8; 95%CI 1.1-2.8 for children at risk, OR 1.8; 95%CI 1.1-2.9 for overweight children). Based on data from 52 independent samples, the mean sampleweighted correlation (Pearson r) between television viewing and body fatness is 0.066 (95%CI 0.056–0.078; total N=44,707). The mean sample-weighted correlation between video/computer game use and body fatness, based on 6 studies, is not significant (r 0.070; 95%CI –0.048 to 0.188; total N=1722). [MA] Positive association between birth weight and obesity in infancy and childhood found in 14/20 studies. Negative association found in 3/20. Increasing attenuation of significant associations apparent as more variables added to multivariable models. Thirteen of 15 studies report a significant association between early rapid growth and later overweight or adiposity. 32 [4.5] years) 3 to 70 years for outcome 3 to 33 years for outcome Oken147 (2008) [7] MedLine 1966-2006 [14; 84,563 subjects] maternal prenatal smoking (mainly yes vs. no in different periods during pregnancy) child and adult overweight Owen148 (2005) [8] MedLine 1966-2003 Embase 1980-2003 [61; 28 with OR, 298,900 subjects] initial infant feeding (formula vs. breastfeeding) obesity in childhood and adulthood 0 to 33 years for outcome (meta-analysis) 0 to 53 years for outcome (all articles) Owen149 (2005) [6.5] MedLine 1966-2003 Embase 1980-2003 [36; 355,301subjects] infant feeding (breastfeeding vs. formula feeding) obesity 1 to 64 years for outcome Papandreou150 (2008) [2.5] MedLine 1997-2007 [102] overweight and obesity 0 to 18 years for exposures and outcome Papas123 (2007) [4.5] MedLine 1966-2007 PsycInfo 1966-2007 Web of Science 19662007 [20; 3 with data on preschool children] sex, geographic area, level of income (Gross National Income per capita) physical and social elements of the built environment obesity (BMI) 3 to 18 years for exposures and outcome (in three studies) Parsons151 (1999) [4] MedLine 1966-98 EMBASE 1980-98 CAB Abstracts 1973-98 PSYCLIT 1996-98 Sport Discus 1975-98 [8 genetics; 31 socioeconomic status; 20 inheritance, socioeconomic status, intra-uterine growth, physical activity, dietary factors including breastfeeding obesity later in life and adulthood 0 to 18 years for exposures, outcomes at least one year later Children whose mothers smoked during pregnancy experienced higher risk for overweight (pooled adjusted OR 1.50; 95%CI 1.361.65) at ages 3-33 years, compared with children whose mothers did not smoke during pregnancy. Controlling for covariates had modest impact on these effects. [MA] Breastfeeding associated with a reduced risk of obesity, compared with formula feeding (OR 0.87; 95%CI 0.85-0.89). Association stronger in small scale studies. In six studies that adjusted for potentially important confounding factors (parental obesity, maternal smoking, and socioeconomic status), the association was reduced markedly but not abolished after combined adjustment: OR from 0.86 (95%CI 0.81-0.91) to 0.93 (95%CI 0.88-0.99). [MA] Breastfeeding associated with a slightly lower mean BMI than formula feeding (-0.04; 95%CI -0.05 to -0.02). Mean difference in BMI larger in smaller studies. Adjustment for socioeconomic status, maternal smoking in pregnancy, and maternal BMI in 11 studies abolished the effect. [MA] Adults more obese than children in all Mediterranean countries. In high and middle levels of income, adults more obese than children. Prevalence of obesity higher among European children than among Asians. European adults more obese than European children. [MA] Most articles (17/20) reported a statistically significant positive association between some aspect of the built environment and obesity. However, in the three studies on children, two showed no difference in BMI according to average distance to a play space. One showed no association between neighbourhood crime and proximity to fast-food restaurants with risk of overweight. One reported that lower prices for fruits and vegetables predicted lower gains in BMI over the 3-year period but no association with density of grocery stores, fast-food and full-service restaurants, and convenience stores and full-service restaurants. Offspring of obese parent(s) were consistently at increased risk of fatness. A strong consistent relationship is observed between low socioeconomic status in early life and increased fatness in adulthood. Clear relationship was found for increased fatness with higher birth weight, less consistent when potential confounding factors are included in the analysis. There was almost no evidence for an influence of activity in infancy on later fatness, and 33 Patel152 (2008) [4] Plagemann87 (2005) [3] Wang101 (2007) [0] intra-uterine growth; 21 maturation; 19 physical activity; 17+12 dietary factors; 13 behaviour and psychology] MedLine 1966–2007 [36; 13 with data on children 3-18 y] MedLine 1966-2003 Embase 1980-2003 [23 for overweight and obesity outcome] MedLine 1990–2006 [80; 20 for meta-analysis] inconsistent but suggestive evidence for a protective effect of activity in childhood on later fatness. Studies investigating diet in childhood were limited and inconclusive. sleep duration overweight and obesity breastfeeding, exclusively formula-fed subjects as reference overweight and obesity, metabolic syndrome (blood pressure and cholesterol level), type 2 diabetes in childhood child overweight and obesity gender, age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status 3 to18 years for exposure and outcome not specified Short sleep duration independently associated with weight gain, particularly in children (all 13 studies, 11 cross-sectional and two longitudinal). Breastfeeding is associated with a decreased risk of overweight and obesity in children later in life (23 studies, pooled OR 0.75; 95%CI 0.71–0.79). [MA] 2 to 9 years for exogenous exposures and outcome Higher prevalence of overweight and obesity in American native Indians, Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic Blacks, in lower socioeconomic groups, and in children living in rural working class, exurban and mixed-ethnicity urban areas. 34