BRASSWORLD News & Report June 2003 www.brassworld.org AL Super Series The chosen matchup for May was Toontown traveling to Greenville. Both teams had very fine starts in April. These two teams brought different winning strategies to the park as Greenville focuses on pitching and defense while Toontown’s attack revolves around the power exemplified by Barry Bonds. Let’s see how it came out. The first game saw Jamey Wright for the Rabbits up against Mark Buehrle for the Black Sox. On paper the starters were a solid advantage for Greenville. Ah, they don’t play the games on paper do they Immediately in the first inning Barry Bonds made himself heard as he drilled a three-run homer. In the third inning Herb Perry iced this one for Toontown when he smashed a two-run homer. Up 5-0 Jamey Wright was able to cruise in his start. He finished what he started and allowed only one run on four hits. With a final score of 10-1, Toontown had made a statement in game one. Game two saw veteran hurlers Frank Castillo (Toontown) and Rick Reed (Greenville) climb the bump. In the first the Rabbits jumped up for two quick runs. Jerry Hairston’s triple drove in leadoff hitter Kenny Lofton. Bonds followed with a groundball to short to get Hairston in. In the bottom of the frame, the Black Sox got one back on Bobby Higginson’s sac fly. In the top of the third the Rabbits went back to work. After Reed retired the first two hitters with ease he imploded. Hairston stroked a solid single and Bonds drew a walk. First and second and two outs and up strode Mags Ordonez. Magpipes lined a single to center to send Hairston plateward. Now up came Ryan Klesko. Klesko got one in his “happy zone” and connected. He sent the ball soaring into the rightfield bleachers for a three-run homer. Up 6-1 the Rabbits had all that they would need in this one. Ryan Klesko finished off his big day by delivering a two-run homer in the ninth for a five rbi day. With a final score of 10-2 Toontown had now scored 20 runs in two games. The series finale saw Kevin Millwood take the ball for Toowntown and Brandon Duckworth doing the same for the Black Sox. Duckworth started well as he was able to make it through the first without allowing a run. Greenville got on the board in the first, thanks to two errors from shortstop Alex Gonzalez. On the hill Duckworth was in a groove as he held the powerful Rabbits at bay through five innings. In the top of the sixth the Rabbits remained down 1-0. Duckworth seemed to be on his way through the sixth as he got past Bonds by holding him to a single. Mags followed Bonds and popped out for the second out of the inning. In stepped Ryan Klesko. Klesko got hold of an inside fastball and ripped it into the corner for a double that got Bonds over to third. Now in some hot water with two outs Duckworth had to face Herb Perry. Perry worked the count to his favor at 3-1. Duckworth tried a slider, but it hung and and Perry was all over it. He returned the pitch and then some as he turned it into a souvenir for an awaiting fan. The Rabbits exited the sixth now up 3-1. Millwood sent the Black Sox down quietly in the bottom of the frame and thus allowed the hitters to get back out there quickly. Magglio Ordonez put this one to bed with a threerun, two out homer in the seventh. After a tight start to this one it ended up being another rout for the Rabbits as they won 8-2. Magglio finished up with four ribbies and Dave Veres picked up his second three inning save of the series. This series was all Toontown obviously. 28 runs in three games. This series was instrumental in powering the Rabbits to a BRASSWORLD best 22-7 May. NL Super Series The NL matchup is a Mays affair in May BRASSWORLD-leading Maryland traveled to second place Aspen for an early season showdown. Maryland trotted out youngster Jason Marquis in the opener while Aspen countered with its great ace, Pedro Martinez. Pedro opened up the game by retiring the first seven batters he faced. The eighth, though, was Damian Miller and Damian connected for an unlikely homer to give the Mounders an early 1-0 lead. Marquis himself cruised into the fourth without much trouble. After getting McLemore and Olerud on consecutive groundouts to second to start the fourth all appeared well for the young hurler. With two out up stepped Luis Gonzalez who promptly drove the ball into the gap for a standup double. The next batter was Scott Rolen. Rolen turned around a Marquis offering and delivered it into the stands for a 2-1 Aspen lead. Pedro said “Thank you very much” and proceeded to mow down Mounder batters the rest of the way. For the game he allowed only three hits. He struck out 14 hitters enroute to a 3-1 victory. A masterfully dominant outing was put together by the best in BRASSWORLD. In game two veterans climbed the hill. Hideo Nomo took the ball for the Mounders while his counterpart was Jamie Moyer for the Rainmakers. Hideo got himself in a heap of first inning trouble as he loaded the bases with one out. Rolen came up with the sacks full and he stroked a solid single to right to plate two early runs. With runners now on the corners and one out Alex Cora came up and sent a deep fly to right. It wasn’t deep enough, but it was enough to allow Luis Gonzalez to trot home with the third run of the inning. Spotted three runs Moyer now assumed a Pedro-like persona. No runner made it past first until Jeff Kent doubled in the sixth, but he was left stranded. In the top of the eighth, Quinton McCracken led off as a pinch-hitter. He doubled, doing his best to start a rally on Moyer. Danny Bautista grounded to second to move Q over to third. Bernie Williams came up with a sac fly and the Mounders had finally touched Moyer for a run. After a Rolen double play ended the bottom of the eighth the Mounders attempted a rally. Mike Williams was called in to close this out for the Rainmakers. Todd Helton led off and he singled. Tim Salmon followed and he ripped a screaming line drive home run to left to make the score 4-3. Shellshocked, Rene went out and pulled his closer and brought in Buddy Groom. Corey Koskie was his first batter and he lofted a routine fly out to centerfielder Charles Gipson, but Gipson dropped the ball and Koskie was safe at second as the tying run. Moyer’s beautiful start was now in jeopardy. Groom decided to take this one himself. He quickly sent down Damian Miller on strikes. Next up Royce Clayton, but the best Royce could do was shoot a weak grounder over to Olerud at first for the second out. With the tying run now only ninety feet away up stepped McCracken. No big hit was forthcoming, however, as Groom got Q to pop out to Vina at second. The finale in Aspen had Matt Clement scheduled for Maryland and Jarrod Washburn for the home team. Danny Bautista got things going early as he led off the contest with a home run. Through four complete the score remained a taught 1-0 affair. In the top of the fifth Todd Helton gave Clement all the breathing room he would need when he sent a Washburn offering to go see the outfield fans. Up 3-0 now, Clement cruised to an eventual 4-0 victory. Alan Embree worked out of a mini jam created by Clement in the ninth by striking out the last two batters to preserve the Mounders win. Some excellent pitching in this three game set. Both teams appear set to be real contenders for not only the Mays title but the NL crown as well. AL Notes COBB Division Expanded Standings Syracuse SkyChiefs Waukesha Keglers Greenville Black Sox Rivendell Knights West Bend Rocks Silver Sluggers W-L 35-20 34-21 34-21 27-28 23-32 17-38 GB --1 1 8 12 18 HOME 19-10 19-10 20-9 17-12 9-20 10-19 ROAD 16-10 15-11 14-12 10-16 14-12 7-19 Vs Div 9-5 11-3 10-4 6-8 4-10 2-12 Vs LH 9-9 11-4 10-3 10-8 7-5 4-11 1-RUN 9-6 9-8 16-8 7-8 5-11 5-13 OPS .810 .791 .670 .729 .687 .752 ERA 3.85 3.79 3.20 4.68 3.86 5.93 A 19-10 May has moved the SkyChiefs into a slim one game lead in the Cobb. Larry Walker got on at a .410 clip in May that allowed him to score 26 runs. Walker also smacked a team high 9 doubles for the month. Brian Giles slumped to a .234 average in May, but he scored 30 runs and hit 8 homers. Trot Nixon also homered 8 times and led the club in May with 29 rbi. Defense hasn’t improved in Syracuse has they have committed 60 errors now. Ray Durham hit .291 in May. Brendan Donnelly was 4-0 in relief in May for the Chiefs. Vulture Randy Johnson whiffed 74 batters in May and is 9-2 on the season with a 2.73 ERA. Eric Gagne picked up 7 May saves. Woody Williams struggled in May as he went 0-2 with a 9.61 ERA. The Keglers 17-12 May keeps them close in a tough three-way Cobb race. Jim Edmonds’ .333 average in May has him up to a team leading .327 for the season so far. Derek Jeter hit .306 in May with 9 steals. Mike Piazza supplied the run production in May with 5 homers and 17 rbi. Piazza leads the Keglers with 13 bombs. Randy Winn hit .291 and score 20 runs. Edgar Martinez struggled to a .196 May batting average but did still contribute by getting on at a .345 rate. The starters were led in May by Daryl Kile’s performance: 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA. Vicente Padilla was 4-1, albeit with a robust 5.13 ERA. Ramon Ortiz struggled in May as he went 1-4 in his starts. Jason Isringhausen has 16 saves on the young season. Greenville went 18-11 in May to keep pace in the Cobb. Ichiro had a fantastic month for the Black Sox as he hit .354 and swiped 22 bags without being caught once! Steve Finley a productive month at the plate as he hit .300, smacked 5 homers and drove in 20. Orlando Merced hit .324 in May. April star Omar Vizquel slumped a bit in May as he could only muster a .222 average for the month. The Black Sox have a very impressive 16 wins already in one run games. The AL best pitching staff recorded some more fine performances in May. Damian Moss was 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Ted Lilly 3-1, 3.37. Robb Nen saved 7 wins without allowing a run. Tom Gordon was excellent in a setup role has he registered a 1.76 May ERA. Only Bobby Jones (5.46) and Kevin Jarvis (6.55) struggled in May action. Rivendell fell off the lead a bit in May as they went 12-17 for the month. Sammy Sosa had a huge month at the plate for the Knights in May. He scored 22 runs, popped 10 dingers and drove in 29. Sosa now has 53 rbi on the season. Brian Jordan had a solid May as he hit .292 with 6 homers and 20 driven in. Luis Castillo hit .284 and gathered up 14 stolen bases in May. Jason Giambi hit only .250 in May but his 35 walks enabled him to post an impressive .480 OBP. Aaron Boone hit a meager .162 in May and has dipped below the Mendoza Line (.199). On the hill the Knights stuggled as their 5.18 May ERA can attest. Andy Ashby was the best at 3-1 with a 3.83 ERA. Derrek Lowe is 8-1 on the season. No Knight reliever could get below 4.50 for an ERA in May play. A 14-15 May has West Bend creeping up the standings. The Rocks will be well served by figuring out how to win at home where they are 9-20 so far. Adrian Beltre was the hitting hero in May for the Rocks as he hit .321 with 6 taters and 17 rbi. Adam Kennedy hit .311 and scored 20 runs. Shawn Green drove in 19 in May and leads the club with 39 rbi for the season. Javy Lopez hit .340 and smacked 4 homers in limited action. Andruw Jones (.224) and Rafael Furcal (.220) struggled in May. David Wells was perfect in May: 5-0, 2.23 ERA. Steve Trachsel off to a tough start (1-7, 5.96). Josh Fogg deserved better than a 1-3 record for his fine 3.51 May ERA. A tough 8-21 May has the Sluggers hunkered down in last in the Cobb. There’s little problem on offense in Silver as a few players had solid Mays. Eric Hinske hit .314 with 5 homers and 17 rbi. Orlando Cabrera hit .279 with 13 doubles. Catcher Michael Barrett hit .278 with 6 dingers and 22 rbi. Carlos Beltran hit only .254 but he found other ways to contribute as he doubled 7 times, homered 6 times, walked 16 times, stole 7 bags and scored a team high 26 runs in May. Pitching was rough for the Sluggers in May as no pitcher could get below 4.66 for an ERA. Paul Wilson was 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA in his starts. Justin Miller picked up 3 relief wins. Brian Lawrence still perfect on the year at 4-0 in 12 starts. RUTH Division Expanded Standings Toontown Rabbits Plum Island Greenheads Portland Grays San Bernadino Stampede Williamsburg Burgesses Gotham City Gargoyles W-L 37-18 30-25 27-28 24-31 23-32 22-33 GB --7 10 13 14 15 HOME 17-9 17-9 15-11 11-15 10-16 11-15 ROAD 20-9 13-16 12-17 13-16 13-16 11-18 Vs Div 9-5 9-5 8-6 3-11 6-8 7-7 Vs LH 6-7 9-6 4-5 3-7 1-11 5-8 1-RUN 6-11 10-8 8-5 11-10 10-7 8-10 OPS .803 .750 .752 .651 .724 .756 ERA 3.30 4.37 4.87 4.04 4.84 4.60 A BW best 22-7 has rocketed the Rabbits to the top of the Ruth. Barry Bonds is hitting .432 through two months of play. In May he hit .448, had a .607 OBP and slugged .908. Oh my! Magglio led the Rabbits in the “merely human” category. He hit .304 and drove in a team high 30 runs. Kenny Lofton hit .323 in May and swiped 11 bases. Herb Perry chipped in 7 with 7 May dingers of his own. Ryan Klesko crept up to a .219 average on the season after hitting .242 in May. Ben Davis hit only .228 in May. Guillermo Mota was an impressive 4-1 in relief with a 2.00 ERA. Frank Castillo led the starters as he was 5-0 in his starts with a sparkling 2.04 ERA. Jamey Wright went 4-1 in his starts. Ismael Valdes is 6-3 with a 3.59 for the year. Plum Island slumped to a 14-15 mark in May. Mark Kotsay was quite impressive for the ‘Heads in May. He hit .373, scored 24 runs, homered 7 times, collected 21 rbi and swiped 8 bases. Mike Sweeney hit .333 in May and led the club with 25 rbi. Plum Island is the speediest team in BW so far. Check out these steal totals so far: Juan Pierre (31), Alfonso Soriano (24), Kotsay (14). Cliff Floyd smacked 10 May doubles. Kirk Rueter went 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in May. Mark Mulder went 3-1 in May. Carlos Zambrano struggled in the swingman role (2-3, 5.14). Sidney Ponson off to a rocky start in 2003 (2-3, 6.79, 10 starts). Portland posted a respectable 15-14 mark in May. Junior Spivey had a very nice May as he hit .413 and slugged .571. In part time action Gabe Kapler hit .400 and tripled 4 times. Spunky Marcus Giles hit .347 in May and led the Grays in homers (6) and rbi (23). Reggie Taylor hit .272 and collected 10 pilfered bags. Jason Kendall did Taylor one better with 11 swipes. Young Austin Kearns hitting .327 on the season. Victor Zambrano led the staff with a 4-1 May mark despite a bloated 6.37 ERA. Run support, baby! Aaron Harang went 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 3 spot starts. Curt Schilling is 6-6 for the year despite his fine 3.38 ERA. Esteban Loaiza was pounded in his six May starts to the tune of an 11.44 ERA. Ouch! The Stampede went 12-17 in May. The Stampede are hitting only .222 as a team on the year. In May A-Rod led the attack with 9 bombs and 19 rbi. Mark Ellis hit .284 and scored 18 runs. Corey Patterson hit .293 in May. Aramis Ramirez wants to completely forget this month as he hit a lowly .113 and committed 8 errors at the hot corner. Pitching was sound in May for the Stampede and it was led by Randy Wolf (3-2, 3.57) and Kyle Lohse (4-2, 3.92). Jon Garland not pleased with his May results: 1-3, 6.19. Jeff Suppan having a tough time winning (2-6) despite a reasonable 4.19 ERA. Keith Foulke did save 6 Stampede victories in May. Williamsburg’s 14-15 May was a nice improvement over April. Bret Boone hit .328 in May with 10 two-baggers and 24 rbi. The big May hero was Jim Thome. Thome drilled 13 bombs, drove in 27 runners and got on at a .504 clip. Jacque Jones hit .317 in May and finds himself sitting on a healthy .335 average for the season. Mark Bellhorn contributed 6 May homers but also made 8 May errors. Chris Singleton (.218) and Jeromy Burnitz (.196) struggled in May. Burgesses an anemic 1-11 versus lefty starters so far. Odie Perez pitched the best in May going 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA. Elmer Dessens struggled in May (2-2, 6.19). Gotham finds themselves in last after a 12-17 month of May. Eric Chavez did his best to make it better as he hit .330 with 10 dingers and 28 rbi. Gary Sheffield hit .291 with 9 doubles and 8 homers. Chipper posted a solid .429 OBP in May. Jose Cruz hit only .171 in May but did manage to make 9 of his hits of the extra base variety. Jeff Bagwell hitting .315 on the year with 13 homers. On the mound Scott Erickson (3-1, 3.22) and Jason Johnson (3-1. 3.73) impressed. Joe Kennedy 35 for the season despite a fine 3.84 ERA. Shawn Estes (8.44) and Pedro Astacio (9.78) really struggled in their May starts. Innings Pitched Curt Schilling Randy Johnson David Wells Brian Lawrence Javier Vazquez 104.0 102.1 87.0 85.0 85.0 AL STATS LEADERBOARD Games Pitched Opponet Batting Avg. Mike DeJean 39 Randy Johnson .193 Scot Shields 33 Randy Wolf .195 Luis Vizcaino 33 David Wells .201 Mark Guthrie 31 Kevin Millwood .215 Johan Santana 31 Mark Buehrle .221 Run Support Victor Zambrano Frank Castillo Miguel Batista Livan Hernadez Derek Lowe 7.11 6.64 6.60 6.45 6.27 NL Notes AARON Division Expanded Standings Virginia Patriots Lafontaine Park Diamonds Abilene Longhorns Annadale Anteaters Buckeye Eclipse Port Richey Sandcranes W-L 34-21 29-26 29-26 28-27 27-28 16-39 GB --5 5 6 7 18 HOME 16-13 16-13 17-12 14-15 16-13 8-21 ROAD 18-8 13-13 12-14 14-12 11-15 8-18 Vs Div 12-2 10-4 6-8 7-7 7-7 0-14 Vs LH 6-7 10-5 8-8 7-5 4-8 2-5 1-RUN 4-3 9-9 9-9 8-8 9-3 6-7 OPS .784 .802 .726 .732 .794 .709 ERA 3.44 4.73 3.82 3.62 5.32 5.61 A 17-12 May has the Patriots comfortably up in the Aaron right now. Nomar hit .289 and produced a .521 SLG in May play. Nomar also tied for team rbi lead in May with 23. Todd walker hit .324 for the month. Jay Gibbons supplied 8 homers during the month. Jorge Posada also delivered 7 homers of his own, despite a .195 average for the month. Carlos Delgado sports solid numbers as he has a .401 OBP and a .554 SLG for the year so far. Pete Walker was 3-0 in his 5 May starts. Tim Hudson went 3-3 with a 3.77 ERA in May. Greg Maddux is 8-2 with a 3.33 ERA thru two months. Ben Weber was dominant (1.16) in 23 innings of May relief work. Rick White posted a dismal 8.18 ERA in May. Bartolo Colon only 4-5 so far despite a solid 3.93 ERA. Lafontaine dipped a bit with its 13-16 May. Ellis Burks was quite impressive in May as he hit .315, smacked 9 homers and drove in 23. Mike Cameron had a very nice month as he went 3-4-5, that is: .315 BA, .403 OBP and a .519 SLG. Mike Lowell picked up 12 two-baggers in May and now has 22 for the season. Jose Vidro only hit .233 in May. Miguel Tejada leads the Diamonds with a .348 BA and is tied for the team rbi lead with 41. Pitching took some blows in May as it posted a collective 5.13 ERA. Kip Wells not responsible as he went 2-2 with a 1.84 ERA. Wade Miller went 2-1. Al Leiter 2-3 despite a respectable 3.31 ERA in May. Jamie Walker lost 4 games in relief in May to go along with his 7.71 ERA. Kaz Ishii a terrible May: 8.65 ERA, 0-2, 27 walks in 26 IP. Abilene’s 16-13 May has them climbing upward in the Aaron. David Eckstein hit .342 in May with 13 steals. Manny hit .267 but led the ‘Horns in doubles (9), homers (6) and rbi (19). Pudge hit .283 with 8 two-baggers. Darin Erstad hit .227 in May and is at .215 for the season. Edgardo Alfonzo lifted his average up to .253 with his May performance. Reliever Vlad Nunez was the most impressive Longhorn pitcher in May. He went 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA in 27 innings of work. Roy Halladay went 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Armando Benitez has 12 saves, but still carries a hefty ERA (4.73). Mike Mussina is having a tough time getting going (4-7, 5.24). Annadale went 14-15 in May, but is still close to the top. Torii Hunter was quite studly in May as he hit .345 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 25 rbi and 6 steals. Cesar Izturis hit a mighty .351 in part-time May action. Garrett Anderson hit .297 in May with 13 doubles. Michael Tucker’s 5 taters were second on the club for the month. Pokey Reese hit an abysmal .156 in May. Byung-hyun Kim won 3 games in relief in May without allowing a run. Barry Zito performed the best of the starters as he went 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA. AJ Burnett also did well as went 2-2, 2.32. Glendon Rusch is 2-6 on the year despite a fine 3.47 ERA. Dave Weathers (5.87) and Juan Cruz (5.93) are struggling in the pen. Buckeye dropped off the pace a bit with their 13-16 May. Albert Pujols had a fine month as he hit .387 with 22 runs scored, 7 homers and 22 rbi. Troy Glaus also had a big month as he posted a .552 OBP and .570 SLG in May. Paul Konerko (.324) and Tony Womack (.326) are off to fine starts with the bat. Paul LoDuca hit picked up 10 doubles in May. Eric Young has 20 steals on the season. Pitching still shaky for the Eclipse has the staff registered a 5.32 ERA in May. Eric Milton fared the best as he went 2-1 with a 3.74 earnie. No other starter could get below 4.75 in May with Jason Jennings (1-2, 6.16) getting the worst of it. Freddy Garcia is the winningest starter with a 7-5 mark. Port Richey’s 10-19 May was a better month than April. ‘Cranes are winless in 14 games within the division so far. Waterbug Cristian Guzman hit .372 in May with 9 doubles and 4 triples. Fred McGriff hit .338 in May and led the club in homers (6) and rbi (18). Shea Hillenbrand hit .319. Todd Hollandsworth helped McGriff with the May pop as he contributed 5 homers and 15 rbi. Marlon Anderson with a .240 BA is the only hitter really struggling for the Sandcranes. Pitching is the problem in PR as it is the worst staff ERA in the NL. In May the best performers got the least results: Tom Ohka (1-1, 2.77) and Denny Stark (0-3, 3.03). Ugie Urbina saved 5 May wins. No Port Richey pitcher has more than 3 victories. MAYS Division Expanded Standings Maryland Mounders Aspen Rainmakers West Oakland Wolverines Taggart Titans Boston Braves Northwoods Moose W-L 35-20 34-21 28-27 26-29 21-34 20-35 GB --1 7 9 14 15 HOME 17-9 15-11 14-12 13-13 11-15 9-17 ROAD 18-11 19-10 14-15 13-16 10-19 11-18 Vs Div 9-5 7-7 11-3 6-8 5-9 4-10 Vs LH 9-6 9-6 8-10 8-7 7-11 7-11 1-RUN 6-7 11-7 5-8 4-8 10-7 4-8 OPS .787 .730 .757 .746 .631 .731 ERA 3.57 3.72 4.18 4.79 4.77 4.58 Maryland rolled nicely along with a 17-12 May. The dynamic duo of Todd Helton and Tim Salmon led the Mounders for the month. Helton for his part hit .330 with 13 doubles, 7 homers and 25 rbi. Tim Salmon was practically the same as he hit .317 with 11 doubles, 7 homers and 26 rbi. Jeff Kent leads the team with 21 doubles so far. Bernie Williams suffered thru a tough May hitting only .191. Royce Clayton may not be hitting much (.216) but he has yet to make an error in 314 innings of play at shortstop. Matt Clement went 4-1 in May with a 3.00 earnie. Darren Holmes won 3 games out of the pen in May without allowing a run. Brad Radke deserved better for his 3.31 May ERA than a 1-4 record. Mark Redman is 7-3 on the year with a fine 2.92 ERA. Aspen is looking to make it a two-team race in the Mays after their 18-11 month. John Olerud supplied the May pop with 5 homers and 20 rbi. Catcher Jason LaRue had a nice May hitting .299 with 7 doubles and 16 rbi. Scott Rolen was a tad off in May (.245 BA) but he did hit 5 homers to help out. Mark McLemore with 15 steals and Dave Roberts (17) led the Rainmaker speed attack in May. Fernando Vina slumped in May with a .177 BA. Chris Reitsma went 4-1 May with a 2.43 earnie. Pedro was 3-1 with a 1.51 ERA in May. Brian Meadows was 3-1 in May. Mike Williams has 13 saves after two months. The Wolverines finished with a 13-16 May. Bob Abreu hit .33 in May with 20 rbi, 10 steals and 15 runs scored. Jose Hernandez hit .308 with 5 homers and 34 K’s. Richie Sexson had a nice May hitting .296 with 19 runs and 22 rbi. Marquis Grissom is performing well in a part time role as he has 8 homers and 22 rbi in 101 AB’s. Tony Batista is slumping to start the season at .220. Roy Oswalt was 3-3 with a 2.79 ERA. Masato Yoshii was 3-1 in his May starts. Kerry Wood is 5-3 on the season and should certainly improve on his 4.74 ERA as the season rolls along. Brandon Puffer had a month to forget (13.30 ERA, 12 walks in 9 innings). Taggart posted a solid 16-13 May to move up a slot in the standings. Vlad Guerrero was the man for the Titans in May: .406 OBP, .664 SLG, 26 runs and 26 rbi. Jeremy Giambi assembled a robust .514 OBP in May play. Big Adam Dunn hit .276 in May and scored 20 runs. Wil Cordero hit .462 with 8 rbi in mainly PH at bats. Jimmy Rollins is only hitting .210 so far. Jeff Weaver was 3-0 with 3.19 ERA. Danny Wright happy with his 2-0 mark in May but with a 1.89 ERA could have had a better record. Five Titan relievers combined to save 12 May wins. Chris Carpenter not a good month (1-3, 6.89). Jay Powell was useless in relief (0-3, 14.85 ERA). The Braves fell backwards with an 11-18 May. Raul Mondesi powered the offense as best he could with 11 doubles, 6 homers, 14 rbi and 15 runs scored. Barry Larkin hit .288 and led the club with 16 May rbi. Roger Cedeno needs to do better than a May that saw him hit .223 and get caught stealing 6 times. Terrence Long had a tough May (.200 BA). CC Sabathia pitched well (3.82 ERA), but unfortunately went 1-5 in May with it. Jose Mesa was very impressive closing games in May (2-0, 5 saves, 0.98 ERA). Youngster Oliver Perez went 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his 3 starts. Tom Glavine leads the staff with a 3.05 ERA through two months. The Moose had a better May as they went 13-16. Jared Sandberg hit .356 with a .689 SLG in prttime duty. Lance Berkman hit .304 with 9 homers, 19 runs and 28 rbi. Apparently ageless Sandy Alomar Jr. hit .346 in May. Pat Burrell had a better month in May as he hit .278 with 7 doubles and 4 dingers. Juan Uribe (.208) and Todd Zeile (.198) had tough Mays. Brad Penny went 3-1 in May with a 2.70 ERA. Matt Morris went 4-2 in his May starts. Trevor Hoffman picked up 6 May saves. Ben Sheets went 2-4 despite a solid 3.03 ERA. Ryan Dempster’s season so far: 2-8, 7.29 ERA. Batting Average Todd Walker Miguel Tejada Fred McGriff Ellis Burks Tim Salmon .359 .348 .348 .347 .347 NL STATS LEADERBOARD Doubles Steals Garrett Anderson 24 Dave Roberts Mike Lowell 22 Mark McLemore Todd Helton 21 Eric Young Nomar Garciaparra 20 David Eckstein Barry Larkin 19 Andy Fox 28 25 20 17 15 Total Bases Torii Hunter Lance Berkman Tim Salmon Vlad Guerrero Albert Pujols 142 128 126 126 122 Award Watch Some old lefties still chugging along and thus garner some recognition. The Moose may not be playing well but it isn’t because of Lance Berkman. Award AL MVP NL MVP Player Brian Giles, SYR Lance Berkman, NOR AL WJ NL CM David Wells, WBR Al Leiter, LPD W 8 7 AVG OBP SLG .280 .425 .618 .292 .376 .612 L SV ERA 3 0 2.59 3 0 2.75 HR 17 16 IP 87 73 RBI 34 51 H 63 59 R 57 39 BB 19 26 SB 4 2 K 60 73 Pitchers Productivity Annadale stays on top with a pitching staff that has punched out 4 homers. over as the new trailer. Leaders… Annadale Aspen Virginia West Bend West Oakland Trailers… Buckeye RUNS 9 10 10 6 6 RUNS 8 HR 4 0 1 0 0 HR 0 RBI 17 9 8 3 6 RBI 6 SH 20 19 17 21 17 SH 10 POINTS 62 57 51 51 46 POINTS 34 Williamsburg takes PREVIOUS 1 T3 2 T5 T5 PREVIOUS T16 Portland Lafontaine Park Port Richey Williamsburg 8 8 8 8 0 1 0 1 4 6 2 2 10 9 10 10 33 31 30 29 T16 T20 22 23 BRASSWORLD Honor Roll Here are the best performances from May… Hits 5/ 7 5 J Crede of NOR vs. ABI in 5 at-bats 5/15 5 B Abreu of WOW vs. WIL in 5 at-bats (10 inning game) 5/20 5 K Lofton of TOO vs. SBS in 5 at-bats 5/29 5 J Spivey of GRA vs. RIV in 5 at-bats (10 inning game) 5/31 5 E Owens of RIV vs. GRA in 5 at-bats Walks 5/31 6 M Grace of GRA vs. RIV Strikeouts 5/22 5 J Cruz Jr. of GCG vs. GRA in 6 at-bats Home Runs 5/15 3 E Burks of LPD vs. SKY in 5 at-bats 5/25 3 T Hunter of ANN vs. NOR in 5 at-bats RBIs 5/18 7 S Sosa of RIV vs. PIG in 5 at-bats 5/25 7 T Hunter of ANN vs. NOR in 5 at-bats 5/31 7 M Lawton of GRA vs. RIV in 6 at-bats Least Hits Allowed - 9+ IP 5/ 2 1 I Valdes of TOO vs. BBB in 9 innings Strikeouts 5/13 15 R Johnson of SKY vs. LPD in 9 innings The games in red I have copies of. Once again, I would really like to have copies of all boxscores above to preserve for league history. New E-mail addresses Corey now has a new e-mail address. It is: weissc@tcq.net. Please make this important change to your address book ASAP. Thanks. Steven of the Boston Braves also has a new email address and can be reached at… sjlockney@aol.com. Please make this change also to your address book. Starter-only Usage Reminder Still way too many starter-only pitchers are appearing in relief this season. Because I have yet to witness this in a game I have played could somebody please confirm that it is indeed HAL bringing in starter-only pitchers in relief and not home managers? I’m getting a tad paranoid here A home manager may not bring such a pitcher in unless the bullpen has been decimated by injury. Also, it seems to help HAL out a lot by setting all starters for relief usage as NEVER. Trades 7. Plum Island trades Jayson Durocher and Plum Island's 2004 3rd round draft choice to Toontown for Guillermo Mota. 8. Taggart trades John Burkett and Bronson Sardinha to Buckeye for Kenny Rogers. Upcoming Deadlines June 30th June 30th June 30th July 7th Results due to opponents Results due to statisticians (Paolo and Corey) Trade deadline for July games Pitching rotations due to Mark and HAL for road opponents due out Fines Portland was assessed a nuisance fine for misplaying opponents HAL. Articles Jim B., Henry, Tom and Paolo have all assembled articles this month. Next Issue of News & Report BW heads toward its first All-Star game! Ballots go out. Williamsburg Gazette Late May 2003 Silver @ Williamsburg #1 Burgesses 3-6-0, Sluggers 0-4-0 A string of 2 outs hits in 3rd inning climaxed by a 2 run bomb by Thome (11) propels Burgesses to victory. Odalis Perez (3-4, 3.31) sparkles with 4 hit shutout. He struck out side in 9th as if for emphasis. No bases on balls. Sele (2-3, 4.09) pitches well; Burgesses lose 3 BP HR to long left field. #2 Sluggers 11-13-1, Burgesses 7-12-1 Sluggers and Burgesses trade punches till Silver explodes for 5 in 8th. The home team loads bases in 8th and 9th but can squeeze out one more run. WP-Alvarez 1-0, 0.00 Save-Hernandez (5) 6.75 LP-Santana 0-1, 5.40 HR-Alomar (2) Beltran (2) Barrett (3) Burnitz (7) #3 Burgesses 6-12-2, Sluggers 4-7-1 Jim Thome cracked 2 HRs (13), the second a walk-off 2 run jack in the bottom of the 9th off Ascensio (L,1-1, 6.20). There were 8 DPs in the game, maybe the most I’ve seen, 5 turned by Wburg. Burgesses were down 4-1 but slowly came back and Johan Santana hurled 4 no-hit innings with 7 Ks in relief of the much-abused Jimmy Haynes (ERA now 7.94). Barrett hit HR (4). WPCornejo (1-0, 4.38) an R7L who pitched 9th against SS switch-hitters Alomar and Beltran. Between the Seams Post mortem on 03 Burgess Season The home team paper predicted that the Burgess starters had the right stuff to be No. 1 in its division; while park effects should be considered, the Burgess hurlers are currently dead last in starters’ ERA in Ruth with 5.37 mark compared to Toontown’s 3.46. The Rabbits were predicted to be No. 2 so that should restore a little credibility. Further scrutiny shows that we do have bragging rights to best bullpen with ERA of 2.67. Toontown is nipping at our heels with relief ERA of 2.84. San Bernadino and Plum Island have gotten essentially equal performances from starters and relivers. If you can knock out Portland’s starters, their current relief ERA of 5.81 suggests it will only get easier for you. The other obvious problem is this team can not hit LHP; our OPS is 509. We do very well vs RHP; our OPS of 763 in 2nd in Ruth only to Toontown and Bonds’ 787. Our lefty-tilted staff will look forward to Portland because they likewise have managed a pitiful 525 OPS to this point. Plum Island visits Williamsburg Game #1 Burgesses 3-7-0, Greenheads 2-9-2 Nip and tuck game goes awry for visitors when in 8th lefty Myers yields a double off his own card to Thome; a righty is brought to face Bret Boone but in a reprise of last month’s newsletter, Boone foils the strategy and singles in Thome to give Williamsburg a 3-2 win. WP-Sosa 1-2, 6.17 LP-Myers 0-2, 6.23 Save-DeJean (3) 1.99 Game #2 Greenheads 12-15-0, Burgesses 7-10-0 Plum Island buries home team under a boatload of early runs leading at one point 12-4 before Burgesses rough up Mulder some. Mark Kotsay was big bopper with 2 jacks (5) and 5 rbi. Barajas hit his first HR and Thome clobbered no. 16 before being lifted due to the slaughter. WP-Mulder 5-1, 4.31 LP-Sparks 2-5, 7.39 Game #3 Greenheads 8-11-1, Burgesses 3-9-1 Plum Island jumped on Odalis Perez for 3 in 1st, and one in 2nd and 3rd as all the rolls seemed to find hits mostly on PIG’s cards but a few on Odalis’ as well. If not hits, then X chances “successfully” converted to hits/errors by the bumbling Burgesses. WP-Rueter 4-2, 2.98 LP-Perez 3-5, 4.01 HR-Sweeney (4) Inge (1) Maryland travels I-95 to Williamsburg Game #1 Maryland 12-13-0, Williamsburg 7-5-3 Interesting line score courtesy of Matt Clement who walked 10 in 5+ innings; 3 Burgess runs scored on bases loaded BB. Thome jerked one (17) to pull us to within 8-7, but Cornejo lost gas early and the Mounders put us away. WP-Clement 4-2, 5.67 HR-Helton (3) Woodward (2) LP-Dessens 2-4, 6.39 Game #2 Williamsburg 2-6-0, Maryland 1-7-4 Bill has no one but himself to blame for this one; after bragging about how great MMM fielding is in his last newsletter , they proceed to botch 4 plays. Two errors in one inning allow 2 unearned runs to score and Jimmy Haynes to earn his first victory; he’s 1-4, 6.62. LP-Redman 4-2, 2.28. Save-Santana (2) 4.60 Game#3 Maryland 6-12-0, Williamsburg 5-11-0 Corey Koskie’s 3 run HR (3) staked MMM to a 5-1 lead; a flurry of 2 out hits by WIL in 6th knocked out Radke and tied it at 5-5. A battle of bullpens ensued and WIL’s blinked first as Mounders scored off DeJean (L,1-1, 2.06) in 8th. Holmes won it (2-1, 0.00) and Smoltz with save (5). Game #4 Mounders 14-16-0 Williamsburg 6-11-3 Sparks was loser. Williamsburg Gazette Early June 2003 Moneyball I thought I’d check teams bank accounts and compare them with number of victories thru May. As a disclaimer, this analysis does not purport to control for all the numbers but I hope it will be of interest. There are 7 teams playing .600 or better. Virginia shrewdly invested $42 mil to get 34 wins and Greenville paid just a little more for its 34. All the other contenders paid $4-5 mil more for just about same number of wins. Toontown does have best record and 3 more wins, but they are at a $7 mil premium. Perhaps the most embarrassing are Rivendell and Abilene, both of which emptied their checkbooks to play .500 ball. Candidates for Peter Angelos Award. Maybe they just haven’t had time to program HAL or SuperHAL. I estimated that on average, BW teams spent $39 mil on salaries. If the average team has won 27.5 games, this translates to $1.4 mil per win. Besides the 2 underachievers already mentioned, what about Port Richey? It should have $25 mil in the bank but has only $18 mil. An extra $7 mil down a hole for the worst record. Cam Bonifay Award candidate. Other teams of interest include LaFontaine Park. It spent $35 mil for 29 wins and comes out better than average at $1.2 mil per win. The most frugal franchise, Silver, has not necessarily come out ahead as it has still paid $1.5 m/w. Is that thrifty or just plain cheap? Bud Selig Award candidate. Compare to Portland below. Portland has played almost .500 ball and has had a payroll of $25 mil; that’s less than a million per win and he gets to roll for an interesting team all year. In the same division, yet another cutting edge GM has paid just about $1 mil per win—that’s San Bernadino. Still again in the Ruth, Toontown has paid $1.3 mil per win. Plum Island is about average at $1.5 m/win. Bringing up the rear? Thought I’d be too embarrassed to mention it? Yes, Williamsburg and Gotham City are among the unwashed overpaying at $1.6 and $1.7 m/win. I have not gone through all the divisions but I fear I could be in the most competitive. Maybe it’s time to propose a rule that divisions get realigned every year according to how bad a GM you are. So, as of now, two candidates for the unofficial Billy Beane Award: Portland and Virginia. Beware making trades with these guys; they’re smart and they could just be hustling you. Paolo’s ode to Matt Olkin… Mat at Bat Is Hyzdu playing bridge? Taggart management got the maximum from Adam Hyzdu. Two months in the season he is leading Brassworld with 3 grand slams. On the other end, Derrek Lee, Lafontaine Park, is 2 for 16 with 6 Ks with bases loaded. As for teams Gotham City leads the way with 5. Guessing who….. is the best hitter against southpaws? Barry Bonds, Toontown, is hitting .447 with 15 walks, 4 doubles and 10 homeruns in 47 AB’s. Adam Dunn,Taggart, is still learning how to deal with them: the youngster is hitting .185 with 24 strikeouts in 54 at bats. Going for butterflies Derrek Lee, is leading the way with 77 strikeouts. He is followed by another Diamond, Mike Cameron, with 69. Doubled Here is a measure of how terrific Bonds was til now. He has 27.5 run created per 27 outs; the second best performance belong to Port Richey ‘s McGriff with 12.8 Wasted opportunities Cliff Floyd, Plum Island, had 49 RBI’s but left on base 62 runners, the most in the league. Most feared hitter Among the regulars Fred McGriff is the most feared hitters: he got 9 IBB in 173 plate appearances, that is the 5.2% of PA’s. SanBernardino’s Alex Rodriguez is second with 3.4%. Mr. Perfect Edgar Renteria, Portland, is perfect in bunting. He is 6 for 6 til now with two squeeze play perfectly delivered. Mr. Clutch Magglio Ordonez, Toontown, hit 6 homeruns in clutch situations. He is hitting .500 with 17 hits and 26 RBI’s in 34 at bats. Weird lead-off men Batting first for Waukesha, Derek Jeter is leading all leadoff hitters in the league with 79 hits. The problem is he is leading the group in strikeouts, too, with 49. Leading off for Syracuse is Brian Giles. In that slot the big guy has .478 OBP. In 146 at bat he batted 51 hits, 14 doubles, 14 homeruns, with 36 walks and 25 strikeouts. Heavy pinch duty After the first 55 games Taggart’s Wil Cordero has 37 AB’s as pinch hitter. He is responding well hitting .351 with 13 hits and a homerun. Which glove are they using? Centerfielder Andruw Jones, West Bend, had 162 putouts in 55 games, that is near 3 catches per game. Trailing is Taggart’s CF Vlad Guerrero with 147. From Henry… It was computer Strat tutorial day. Rene drove down from Portland, Maine to meet me just East of Manchester, New Hampshire for our jaunt Northward into Canada. During the 4 1/2 hour drive, we remembered many Strat-o moments from our childhood. The infamous disappearing act of 1978 Cincinnati Reds. The controversial 1st Super Bowl played under the lights in the Boys Club library when my older brother protested the outcome after I had kicked a 52-yard field goal to win. His complaint was that I had taken outside advise on the last play. There were the all night leagues or the old draft out of brown bag leagues. We laughed the entire way to Montreal. Once we navigated entrance into the city, our directions had us looking for the Jacques Cartier Tunnel yet we found the Jacques Cartier Bridge, it was a matter of deciphering our map and circling the neighborhood a few times but eventually we found Auberge De Fontaine, a quaint little B&B in the heart of the city. We unpacked, called our Super Hal tutor (Daniel) and prepared for a night out in Montreal, "the coolest city in North America" (Daniel quoted). We decided to get to know each other over some gourmet pizza and a few drinks. Daniel explained to us the history of baseball in Montreal and gave us some interesting insights into the Expos’ franchise that are not covered in the American Press. We swapped Strat-o stories and talked about life in general. The Canadian perspective is much closer to our own (American) than we had previously thought. As it was very late, we decided to call it a night and begin the tutorial the next morning. Rene and I woke to Strat fever. "It's time for the Southern Maine League's first international series," he (Rene) proclaimed. After breakfast and a shower, we set up shop on the little desk in our room and my Greenheads pounded Rene's Reds in 4 straight games. Carlos Beltran was the hero leading off a remarkable 3 consecutive games with Homers. Then, it was off to Daniel's pad for some espresso and lessons from the Professor. Daniel greeted us with bright eyes and the java I so sorely lacked. He patiently took us through every aspect of HAL and the resulting effects the settings would have on our games. I scribbled notes as quickly as I could. Later to find that deciphering them wasn't as easy as I thought it would be. We broke for lunch. More top quality Canadian Pizza and a bizarre, local delicacy of French fries, barbecue sauce and cheese curds referred to as "poutine". The lessons continued throughout the afternoon. Sadly we had to leave that night because of some school obligations of Rene's but the plan is to return this summer and visit the "Big O", Olympic Stadium. So any of you that lose a close home game to either Rene or I can thank your Draft Coordinator Daniel Valois for his teaching excellence. From Tom Fish… Sunday paper San Bernardino – Do you check the stats of your players in the Sunday newspaper? I sometimes do, and I usually start at the bottom and work my way up. Most often I’ll just glance quickly through the stats but every so often, especially when the major league season is at a point like ¼, 1/3 or ½ complete, as it’s easy to quickly compute what the approximate season totals would be. The ML season is approximately ¼ complete now so I thought I’d take a closer look at how my players are doing, to give me an idea as to how much better or worse they may be next year. I know it’s very early, and I’ve actually geared my team to hopefully begin competing for my division title the year after next, but it’s fun anyway. The below stats are as of Sunday, May 18th. At firstbase I’ve got Doug Mientkiewicz. He’s beginning to heat up with Minnesota (though he sprained his ankle on Sunday) and is currently at .274:avg/3:hr/0:sb, and projects to 46 doubles. However, down on the farm there’s Justin Morneau who hit .329/6/0 in AA before being promoted to AAA where he’s hitting .311/6/0. Plus, there’s a chance he’ll get the call now that Doug is injured, though I personally hope they leave him in AAA for now. The future looks good at 1B. Secondbase has Mark Ellis (.262/3/0 … projects to 54 doubles). He’s been in a slight slump lately but if he keeps playing solid defense he’ll still be valuable. Desi Relaford (.308/3/6 … has .387 obp) backs him up, plus the future may bring Rickie Weeks who’s currently at .500/16/27 in just 158 AB’s in college, which are incredible numbers! The only problem is that he may be switched to the OF once drafted this Spring. But then that may prove to be helpful for me as RF is a trouble spot as you’ll read below. Another trouble spot may be thirdbase. I still believe that Aramis Ramirez (.238/2/0) will be an exceptional offensive force, but he’s off to a poor start this year. He’s still just 24 yrs old, though. On the bright side, Chad Tracy is hitting .357/3/0 with a .414 obp in the minors. Shortstop needs little mentioning, other than that Alex Rodriguez (.308/11/6) plays there. I’m in great shape there for years. The outfield is looking pretty good, though rightfield may be a trouble spot. Brad Wilkerson (.296/5/3 … projects to 49 doubles) is in left and has also appeared in CF, RF and 1B. Corey Patterson (.319/8/8 … on pace for 12 triples) is a pleasant surprise in center, though this is what was expected from him from the Cubs. If this is the real Corey Patterson then I’ll be in very good shape there. Rightfield is a trouble spot unless Gary Matthews, Jr (.204/2/0) gets straightened out. I’ve also got Jose Guillen (.324/7/0 … .357 obp) out there, but I don’t expect him to keep those stats up for the whole year. And even if he does he’ll be a free agent so I may not be able to retain him. Gene Kingsale (.270/0/0 … .341 obp) is another outfielder but he’s not necessarily a RF’er and despite him being one of the better hitters for average with the Tigers they have reduced his playing time. Down on the farm I’ve got Coco Crisp (.341/0/14 … .451 obp) but he’s not really a RF’er either, and I’m not sure if the Indians are going to give him a shot. At least not this year, though he may become a valuable player in another year or two. Ramon Hernandez (.306/4/0) has turned into a very good catcher, and though he’s hitting above his head a bit right now, I don’t believe he’ll end up much lower than around .270 with double figure HR’s. Plus he’s thrown out 40% of the runners trying to steal on him. He’s proving to be a very solid catcher, both offensively and defensively. And just in case, Jeff Mathis, a top prospect with Anaheim is hitting .299/4/3 in the minors. The mound may need some work, but it’s not in terrible shape. In fact with a little luck or a good draft pick or two (or maybe a trade) it could become quite good and be the strength of my team as I want it to be. Randy Wolf (3.24:era/1.11:whip/.208:baa) leads the staff and looks to be the ace I hoped for in him. Following him is Kyle Lohse (3.22/1.09/.222) who is producing far better than I had expected. I’ve seen him a number of times on TV and I don’t think it’s a fluke. This guy has the ability to be that good, consistently, and maybe even better! After that my starters are in trouble. Jeff Suppan (3.32/1.33/.269) is doing well but I don’t expect him to continue that pace all season. But with his good start he may end up with an ERA in the high 3’s or low 4’s, with a lot of IP’s which could be very useful as the #3 or #4 starter. The disappointment is Jon Garland (6.10/1.50/.278 … projects to 35 hra). He’s still young with some very good stuff so there’s hope. And I’m certainly hoping. But as I said I drafted this team to hopefully become a contender in our third season so I and Jon have time. Depending on whether or not Jeremy Affeldt (4.33/1.33/.281) can control his finger blister problems he could or could not become a very good starter. I’ve seen him a few times and when the blister is not affecting him he is quite good. Others such as Al Leiter put together some very good years once he got his blister problems under control. Hopefully Affeldt will be able to control his problem sooner than later. Ryan Drese (7.65/2.35/.341) looks to be gone but there’s hope for the future in the minors. Jimmy Gobble (2.92, 5-3 record) is having a good year in the minors and though Jose Torres (4.68, 3-2) is struggling a bit he’s had some very good appearances and is still projected as a top prospect for the Angels. The bullpen is in good hands with Keith Foulke (2.49/0.83/.182 … on pace for 42 SV’s), but there’s not much after that. Ray King (3.18/1.65/.246), Mike Crudale (0.00/1.69/.238 in just 5 ML games) and Kelly Wunsch (0.00/0.63/.053) are all serviceable and form a decent setup core as a unit, but none have enough strengths (despite some very good ERA’s so far) to be considered a stud reliever and, since my team is to be built around a solid pitching staff I’ll have to upgrade them. They’ll be great as situational, one or two batter type pitchers, but I’ll have to get one or two solid setup men for Foulke. All in all my offense is looking pretty good with just a couple of positions I’ll need to improve upon in the next year or two. My starting staff has a pretty good base to build upon. Just a good draft pick or two and/or the emergence of a minor leaguer and it should become a real strength for my team. The bullpen is the weak link. There is some depth with decent stats but it’s too situational. This is where most of my attention will go to, though it’s a position I do not like to use high draft picks for. This may take some time, work and luck. Of course all this may look very different in a few months. But it’s fun to try and look into what the future may hold.