Blair as Labour Leader 1994-2004: An Assessment
In November 2001, the late Hugo Young wrote of Blair, ‘He is a mighty, dominant leader’, and the Blair
career might appear to reinforce such a judgement. After ten years in the job and six months way from a
probably election, it might be a good time to assess his achievements to date.
In Opposition 1983-1997
From a Conservative background as well as education in those bastions of Conservative privilege, public
school and posh St John’s College, Oxford not to mention the occupation of Barrister, he came to lead the
party which hearkened back to manual work, cloth caps, union lodge meetings and the Durham Miners
Gala. The party was in a bad way when he arrived in Parliament in 1983, representing the safe seat of
Sedgefield. It had presided over a miserable period of the nation’s economic decline in the seventies;
had suffered a traumatic humiliation during the so-called Winter of Discontent when it was revealed to be
impotent in the face of union militancy; had lost the 1979 election and then, even more crushingly, post
Falklands in 1983 to a Mrs Thatcher whose dominance as Prime Minister was overwhelming. From this low
point the CND badge wearing, fresh faced Blair slowly built a reputation as dynamic new potential leader.
Teaming up with Gordon Brown, he determined to ‘modernise’ his dilapidated party.
‘New’ Labour
This entailed recognizing that the old constituency for the party had more or less disappeared: the working
class had shrunk, nationalisation proven a failure, the new enlarged middle class less willing to fund the
welfare state and the electorate at large holding an image of the party as non-aspirational, incompetent and
excessively ideological. He conducted his shadow briefs at the Treasury and Environment with flair and
won public attention as the other part of the double act with Gordon Brown. In 1994 when John Smith
tragically died, Brown might have appeared to be better qualified to lead the party: a solid grounding in
Labour history; close association with the much loved John Smith; and a distinguished record as a
heavyweight opposition policy-maker and Commons performer. But Blair had persuaded at least one
leading Labour modernizer that he was the best equipped to lead: Peter Mandelson, former Director of
Communications for the Labour Party. His help as a secret member of Blair’s campaign team contributed to
Blair’s easy victory when Brown stood down by agreement - though much dispute remains whether Blair
had agreed over a meal in the Granita restaurant to stand aside for Brown after an agreed time had elapsed.
Clause IV
Blair’s first speech to the party conference as leader trailed his intention to reform Clause Four of the party
constitution committing it to collective ownership. Most European socialist parties had abandoned such
goals but it took a fight to haul Labour around to abolishing it. Blair managed it with panache, eventually
winning a two to one majority in favour of his favoured course. This success in fighting his own party was
crucial to changing the image of Labour to one more acceptable to an electorate which had still preferred
Major to Kinnock as late as 1992. Blair systematically shifted policy to the centre to reassure Middle
England that he was no extremist tax and spend Labour ideologue but a pragmatic, if anything right leaning
moderate. Come 1997 and the shambles Major’s government ended up as, it was little surprise that he won
in 1997 but the 179 majority was a surprise and not just to the Conservatives.
Blair in Government 1997-2004
Economy
This aspect of his record seems unchallengeable and is the sine qua non of all the other achievements of
Blair’s two periods in government. In his sometime rival Gordon Brown, Blair has found the most dominant
and capable Chancellor of the last century. His record, after nearly eight years in office is hugely
impressive:
a) Steady growth of 2-3% a year making the British economy the most successful in Europe and
establishing a record period of continuous growth.
b) Unemployment down below one million and lower than any EU competitors.
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c) Similarly inflation: averaging under 2% over the past few years and predicted to remain even lower for
the medium term future - the decision in 1997 to make the Bank of England independent of government
seems to have worked this trick very effectively.
d) Repayment of government debt to an impressive degree.
e) Maintenance of debt as a percentage of GDP below the levels of EU and USA.
f) Maintenance of ‘golden rule’ of not borrowing to pay current account but only to invest.
It is true that British productivity and balance of trade have not been conspicuous successes and that Blair’s
policy of joining the euro has not happened. It is also true that much of Britain’s recent success has been
built on a credit boom at home based on unsustainably rising house prices but overall the Blair
government’s economic record is astonishing compared with those of previous governments. It has survived
world recessions, overcome the collapse of the Asian economies, the collapse of share prices in Wall St and
the huge hike in oil prices to establish itself one of the world’s most buoyant economies.
Pre Budget Report 2nd December 2004
This turned out to be a back slapping exercise about the state of the economy plus an inducement to voters
to vote Labour next May via improved childcare and lower council tax bills. The main gamble seems to be
that the economy will carry on growing at 3-3.5% next year and that tax revenues will keep on flowing in as
planned. Some commentators have calculated at least a £10 billion shortfall which will have to be filled by:
a) extra borrowing breaking the ‘golden rule’ of borrowing only to fund investment and not current
expenditure; b) by extra taxes; or c) cuts in spending. But Brown’s projections have been questioned before
and he always seems to come out right either through good judgement of good luck.
‘His economic forecasts prove more accurate than his self righteous and near permanently wrong critics’
Will Hutton 5/12/04, Observer.
The high Pound and possible collapse of the Dollar might prevent this prediction coming true. It’s possible
to see the report as a preview of a Brown led government but whatever happens, Brown has every reason to
work for a Labour victory.
Constitution
1. Devolution
Blair was true to John Smith’s vision of constitutional change and enacted the Scottish Parliament, Welsh
Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly with commendable promptness after referendums produced
evidence of positive support - though in the case of Wales only by a sliver. The Executives were set up after
elections and have been operating ever since except for Northern Ireland which had been suspended since
October 2002 as a result of another aspect of the troubles. Blair tried to prevent Rhodri Morgan from
becoming First Minister in Wales - an aspect of his control freak tendencies - but in the end had to accept
him with the best grace he could muster. Scotland has been reasonably successful as a parliament and
executive though the scandal regarding the expense of Holyrood House did not help. However, the political
aim of devolution was achieved it would seem, which was the negating of Celtic nationalism. Neither Plaid
Cymru or SNP are the forces they once were and few now seriously believe independence is a credible
political objective. Coincidentally, the Conservatives are not displeased to have representation in both
chambers while they have only one in for a Scottish constituency at Westminster. But the cause of voting
reform has taken a blow as Labour MPs have noticed how it has led to a reduction of Labour hegemony in
the Celtic fringes.
2. Elected Mayor for London
Another referendum produced a mandate for an elected mayor of London. The journey to the first election
was not easy but Ken Livingstone, despite winning as an independent, against his former party, Labour, has
been largely a success. He remains very popular as London’s first citizen and his congestion charges,
bravely introduced, have become a template for the rest of the country. He rejoined the party earlier this
year and bad relations with Blair and Brown seem to have been pragmatically forgotten.
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3. Proportional Voting
Devolution seems to have damaged the case for PR for selecting the Commons but it has been introduced,
in a modified form for European Elections, the devolved assemblies and the Greater London Authority.
The UK now has a mixed voting system, with even the STV system operating in Northern Ireland for local
elections.
4. Human Rights Act, 1998
In 1998, the European Convention of Human Rights was embodied into British Law inserting an element of
human rights into the British constitution for the first time. This has given top judges something
approaching a political power of interpreting whether human rights have been recognised or violated ... in a
number of cases, some of them embarrassing for the government.
5. House of Lords Reform: Stage One
This was the stage whereby hereditary peers were abolished from voting and membership of the Lords,
though 92 remain for the time being as part of a deal with the Conservative opposition. Thereby, one of the
great anomalies of British government was removed.
6. Judiciary
a) Lord Chancellorship
This office, first established in 1605, had been criticised for years as giving too much power to someone
who occupied a place in all three spheres of government: legislature, executive and judiciary. This was felt
by many to be undemocratic and in 2003, via the clumsy device of a reshuffle, Blair tried to reform the
office. Lord Falconer was appointed as head of a new department of Constitutional Affairs to take over the
role of the Lord Chancellor’s department. He was to jointly hold the office of Lord Chancellor until such
time as it was phased out. Recently it was decided by a Lords amendment to retain the title of Lord
Chancellor.
b) Supreme Court
It was declared at the same time that the legal part of the Lords which played the role of being the highest
court of appeal in the land, would be replaced by a new supreme court.
c) Appointment of judges
Instead of being appointed by the Lord Chancellor, judges would henceforth be appointed by a new Judicial
Appointments Commission.
Social Policy
Gordon Brown’s redistributive measures have raised many people out of poverty.
a) Minimum Wage
Instead of causing two million unemployed, as the Conservatives predicted, this measure has benefited
1.6 million people and currently stands at £4.85 per hour.
b) Working Person’s Tax Credit
This provides additional income to those on low incomes and according to the Policy Studies Institute has
been responsible for reducing families in ‘severe hardship’ from 41% in 1999 to 28% by 2001.
c) Redistributive Budgets
Redistribution via adjustments to benefits has raised 1.5 million children out of poverty since 1997.
d) Pensions
£10 billion has been spent on raising pensions and means testing has helped give three million pensioners
some extra £50 a week.
e) Welfare to work programme
This has helped virtually solve the problem of young unemployed since 1997 when it was introduced.
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f) Sure Start and Nursery Schools
This programme of providing nursery school places for children has been successful and made a centrepiece
of the government’s education programme. Research shows that injection of educational help at this stage
provides huge benefits in later life. In addition, the government has provided help to mothers with
subsidised child care.
Welfare State
In 2002, Brown announced the spending of over £60 billion over the next four years. In 2004, these figures
were increased even more.
Education
Blair made ‘education, education, education’ his key priority at the 1997 election and announced increased
spending on this sector in 2004 by 4% extra a year until 2007. Overall standards have increased in schools
in terms of literacy in primary schools, the number of GCSEs and A levels achieved not to mention the third
or so of young people who now attend university. Opinion polls now show voters are beginning to notice
and appreciate the infusion of extra funds.
NHS
Labour persisted with the internal market in the NHS introduced by their predecessors; one survey appeared
to prove it helped achieve more efficiency than the old system. Polls show that at long last voters are
beginning to feel the health service is improving. The queue of people waiting for major operations has
been cleared and average waiting times have fallen from 10 to 3 months. In addition, there has been a 70%
increase in staffing and 80% more patients are treated now than 20 years ago.
Law and Order
Blair claims serious crime has decreased by 39% since the peak of 1995. The risk of being a victim of crime
fell from 40% in 1995 to 28% in March 2004. Violent crime has increased however along with - over the
last ten years - the incidence of murder. Binge drinking, loutishness and vandalism are regarded by many as
a national plague and ASBOs have been introduced as a partial solution. Blair’s recent Queen’s Speech
seemed to make ‘security’ its heart in an attempt to prepare a message for the next election which combines
law and order with protection from terrorism via police work, secret services and Identity Cards.
This emphasis explains some of the passion with which Blair has defended his Home Secretary, Blunkett,
during his recent travails over his highly publicised affair with Kimberley Quinn.
Northern Ireland
Here Blair has probably focused more effort than on any other issue. The Good Friday Agreement in 1998
seemed to usher in a new era of compromise and peace into the province but the problem of disarming the
IRA was the constant rock on which power sharing foundered. In 2002, the executive was suspended and
direct rule intruded yet again. The next year the centre was squeezed when the UUP and the SDLP lost
votes and seats to the militant parties DUP on the loyalist side and Sinn Fein on the other. After a further
year of deadlock, Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams incongruously seemed to be on the brink of a historic and
unusual agreement in early December 2004.
‘The evolution of Sinn Fein was ordained by the thriving businesses of Derry and by people who wanted to
do their Christmas shopping in peace. Ten uneasy years have passed since Martin McGuinness came in
from the cold and his party stands on another threshold.’ Mary Riddell, Observer, 5th December 2004.
Moreover, Paisley is close to retirement (if not death according to some reports) and some of his deputies
are hungry for real power: Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds. Where Trimble failed Paisley might succeed
from being able to command the loyalty of his followers. Paisley also wants to win the accolade of having
‘won’ the struggle with the IRA - and this might prove another sticking point for Adams and his side of the
equation.
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Foreign Policy
Kosovo
Was a crisis when it seemed innocent Alabanian Kosovans were being ‘ethnically cleansed’ by Milosevic’s
paramilitary Serbian forces. Blair was decisive and active in helping to organise the west to intervene and
bring the crisis to some kind of conclusion.
Afghanistan
This was a conflict which grew out of the attacks on the Twin Towers 9/11/01. Britain contributed towards
the attacks on the Taliban and few teras were shed when it was defeated. However, no lasting peace has
been established so the jury must still be out on the efficacy of this foreign policy venture.
Iraq
This was a step too far for the majority of the British voters. Polls showed a majority opposed to the war
and some million marched against it in 2003. Yet it went ahead and continues to be a highly emotive topic.
Blair is passionately supportive of his own decision in support of the USA but has forfeited the support, in
the process, of: EU allies in France and Germany, many of his leftwing intellectual supporters; and huge
tracts of his own party both inside and outside Parliament.
‘Few modern political careers are compatible with religious principle. Government by atheists would
relieve us of the irksome moral conceit that impels George Bush and Tony Blair to do deplorable things
while remaining convinced they are destined for heaven.’ Max Hastings, Guardian, 6th December 2004.
Failures (selective and subjective)
1. Over Emphasis on Special Relationship with USA
It seems clear the British public feel Blair has been too compliant in dealings with George Bush and there is
a widespread feeling he should be more assertive.
2. Transport
This is an area which has not been sorted out in any major way.
a) Railways are still expensive, unreliable and dirty as well as expensive. Nor is there any solution insight
to the efficient organisation of railways
b) Roads are hopelessly congested despite a pledge by Prescott that road use by cars would be reduced.
3. Hunting
This has been a long drawn out saga which arguably was unnecessary and based on a narrowly partisan
desire to assuage class based party feeling.
4. House of Lords: Stage Two
No solution for the future organisation of the chamber though the Billy Bragg solution of regional
representation is favoured.
5. Trust
Blair’s support for US over Iraq, in the teeth of passionate opposition has made his position very difficult
and produced catastrophically low ratings for trust in the polls. Fortunately, trust of the opposition is
equally low if not even more so.
6. Spin
The tendency for New Labour to continue its obsessive news management into government has backfired
badly. Now, virtually everyone distrusts government statements, suspecting them of being manipulations or
just untruths. Experience suggests that news management by the likes of Mandelson and Campbell
ultimately destroy trust and undermine democracy.
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7. (Almost forgot!) Millennium Dome
This grandiose attempt to build a monument to New Labour was pushed through despite cabinet opposition
and civil service scepticism. It failed because entertaining the masses is not an activity in which
governments are qualified to excel.
Conclusions
Blair has proved to be a remarkable and powerful modern ‘Presidential’ Prime Minister. A recent poll of
academics and historians placed him 6th in 20th century rankings which is not a bad when the competition
is considered (Thatcher was ranked 4th). Blair is the most recent Prime Minister who has appeared to
become more of a president than a mere premier. His style is very personal and he prefers to take decisions
in small informal groups not in Cabinet. He is a master of the media and excels on the television as well as
in the Commons where, despite his rare appearances, he is outstandingly dominant.
People may argue about his achievements, just as they did about Thatcher’s, but that he has achieved much
is not in doubt: the constitution, the economy, social policy, aspects of foreign policy. Much of what he has
achieved has been controversial but strong leaders do not flinch from adversity and are not discouraged
when faced by setbacks. If he survives into a third term he might fulfil his ambition of taking the country
into the euro though this seems unlikely. More likely is that he will decide to move aside after a while and
let Gordon take over for ‘his turn at the wheel’.
‘Blair will be remembered in 50 years’ time for what he did on the home front. His government has done
much of which it can be proud. But that is not a guarantee of greatness. In the words of Joseph
Chamberlain, he has to make the political weather. Attlee did it. So did Margaret Thatcher. Blair has been
content to glide in her slipstream - privatising what she did not privatise and believing in the market with a
faith greater than hers.’ Roy Hattersley, The Guardian, 6th December 2004.
Bill Jones 4th December 2004
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