Where Astronomy Meets Geology: From Ice Ages to Global Warming André Berger Université catholique de Louvain Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemâitre 2 Chemin du Cyclotron 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve 1. One of the greatest challenges in climate research remains today the explanation of the glacial-interglacial cycles during the Ice Ages. About 3 Ma ago, the Earth entered into the Quaternary Ice Age. During such Ice Age the climate is not only globally cooler, but it oscillates also between two extremes, the glacials and interglacials, with an average periodicity of 100 ka. The Last Glacial Maximum occurred 20 ka ago and was characterized by huge ice sheets, 1 to 2 km thick, mainly in the northern hemisphere amounting to about 50 10 6 km3 of ice more than now. Sea level was 120 meters below present day and the global average air temperature at the surface was only 5°C lower than now in spite of such a difference in the land surface cover. Analysis of the chemical composition of air bubbles trapped in the ice sheets show also that the atmospheric mean concentration of CO2 was 200 ppmv (it is presently 370). Such an icy situation took about 90 ka to be created, but it took only about 10 ka to melt all this exceeding ice. About 8 ka ago, the melting of the Eurasian ice sheet was completed totally and a few thousands of years later it was the case for the Northern American ice sheets. The climate at the so-called Climatic Optimum (6-7 ka BP) was quite similar to the present-day climate (out of the impact of man’s activities): slightly warmer globally, a sea level a few meters more, and a CO 2 concentration of 280 ppmv. 2 2. Owing to the CLIMAP programme in the 1970’s and 80’s (Climate Long Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction) under the leadership of John Imbrie from Rhode Island University in Providence, climate started to be reconstructed worldwide. On this photograph you might recognize from left to right, Jim Hays from Lamont Doherty Geological Observatory (Columbia University, new York), Vasko Milankovitch and John Imbrie. 3. This programme reconstructed in particular the ice and sea-surface temperature conditions prevailing at the Last Glacial maximum. 4. These sea-surface temperatures, particularly in the tropics, are now being revisited by the EPILOG programme (Environmental processes of the ice age, land, oceans and glaciers), whereas the continental data have been summarized recently under the initiative of Nicole Petit-Maire within the framework of the Commission for the geological map of the world. 5. At this last Glacial maximum, climate must have been rough up to southern France as indicated by the paintings of our ancestors, in the Lascaux cave for example. 6. In the 1980’s CLIMAP was followed by SPECMAP which intended to produce time series reconstructions of past climate and their spectral properties, instead of time slices. This led to a stacked curve constructed from different deep-sea core proxy records. Its radiometrically controlled time scale was progressively orbitally tuned in an iterative process. For the last 200 ka, variations in the 18O proxy data for the ice volume show clearly the saw-tooth shape of the last glacial-interglacial cycle going from isotopic stage 5 (with 5e being the previous interglacial, called Eemian in Europe and Sangamonian in North America) to 1(our present-day Holocene interglacial). 7. This curve has been extended to 800 ka BP and shown for the first time at the Milankovitch symposium in 1982. Its time scale has been refined over the last decades, in particular by aging the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 3 8. The photograph with all the participants ( 100) shows that this was (and is still) a hot and very popular topic. On this photograph you may recognize Vasko Milankovitch, John Imbrie, Suky Manabe, Steve Schneider, Jim Hays, the late John Murray Mitchell, Nick Shackleton, Bill Sellers and Michael Ghil among many other scientists who were already famous or became since then. 9. But this kind of long-term changes is also found in other very well known data, like those recorded in the Vostok ice core. CO2 and CH4 concentrations and temperature above Antarctica over the last 400 ka display also a very clear 100 ka signal on which high frequencies are superimposed. 10. Spectral analyses of the SPECMAP curve in particular show an overall red noise shape of the spectrum on which very significant peaks are superimposed at periods of 100 ka, 41 ka, 23 and 19 ka. Actually, these periods are characteristic of the long-term changes of 3 astronomical parameters which altogether determine the distribution in latitudes and seasons of the energy that the Earth receives from the Sun. This observation is at the basis of the astronomical theory of paleoclimates, which most popular version is due to Milutin Milankovitch. 11. Milutin Milankovitch was a serbian mathematican who specialised in astronomy and geophysics. He was born on 28th May 1879 in DaIj, Slavonia (part of AustroHungary until 1919; then part of Jugoslavia and now in Croatia). He died in Belgrade on 12th December 1958. He graduated as a doctor of technical sciences on 17th December 1904 from the Technical High School of Vienna. On the 1st October 1909, he was elected professor at the University of Belgrade where he lectured on Rational Mechanics, Theoretical Physics and Celestial Mechanics, until his retirement 46 years later. He was a member of the Serbian Academy of Sciences, Jugoslav Academy of Sciences and Arts, German Academy of Naturalists, Leopoldine Halle and Italian Institute of Paleontology. 12. Milutin Milankovitch was a contemporary of Alfred Wegener (1880-1930) with whom he became acquainted through Vladimir Köppen (1846-1940), Wegener’s father in law. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 4 13. It is roughly between 1915 and 1940 that M. Milankovitch put the astronomical theory of the Pleistocene ice ages on a firm mathematical basis. His first book, written in French, dates from 1920, but his massive Special Publication of the Royal Serbian Academy of Sciences on Kanon der Erdbestrahlung was published in German in 1941 14. and was translated into English in 1969 and reprinted in 1998. 15. Milutin Milankovitch wrote some 70 books and papers, including some on popular astronomy. He was involved in the reform of the Julian calendar, became even a writer and wrote his memoirs: “not because I thought I was such an important person, but because I have lived in an historically interesting and turbulent period, and I described these events as a trustworthy witness. My work spanning some 30 years, has been closely connected with the work of other scientists who have used my results in their respective fields. The mutual collaboration has been documented with more than 600 letters and 100 publications. Therefore, these memoirs are, for a good part, the history of a branch of the sciences called “Astronomical Theory of Climatic Changes”.” 16. These memoirs were the basis of the unique biography written in English on Milutin Milankovitch by his son Vasko Milankovitch (1995). 17. Milankovitch’s main contribution was to explore the solar irradiance at different latitudes and seasons in great detail, to compute its long-term variations from the orbital parameters and to relate them in turn with climate. 18. His theoretical investigation provided the basis for the core of his argument that “under those astronomical conditions in which the heat budget around the summer solstice falls below average, so will summer melt, with uncompensated glacial advance being the result”. 19. The essential product of the Milankovitch theory is therefore his curve demonstrating how the intensity of summer sunlight varied over the past 600,000 years. This curve was used to identify the European ice ages reconstructed by Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 5 Albrecht Penck and Eduard Bruckner, from which he concluded that these geological data constituted a verification of his theory. Up to the 1960’s, the Milankovitch theory was disputed as a result of discussions based on fragmentary geological records and because the climate was considered too resilient to react to “such small changes” as observed in the caloric summer insolation. Milankovitch was little disturbed by these different opinions believing firmly that his theory was correct. In the late 1960’s a systematic approach and use of modern techniques led to major discoveries which progressively supported his essential concept, namely that orbital variations exert a significant influence on climate. 20. But MM was not the only one who came with the idea of relating celestial mechanics to paleoclimates. There were a few before him. An extensive list is given in my 1988 paper in Review of Geophysics and a historical perspective is given in John and Katherine Imbrie 1979 book. In the early nineteenth century Herschel, Adhemar, Croll, Murphy came with different ideas stressing the winter or the summer season and putting more emphasis on one astronomical parameter or the other. This continued into the second-half of the XXth century up to the time that better geological records and time scale and numerical models became available to test the reliability of such hypotheses. These discussions continue and many hypotheses are still presented today. 21. This introduction aimed to show the multi-and inter-disciplinarity of such astronomical theories of past climatic changes. They actually involve 3 fundamental sciences: astronomy and celestial mechanics, mathematics and geometry of the insolation, and climate modeling including the verification of the results using geological reconstructions. Moreover, if such a theory works for the past, it is tempting to use it for the future and to analyse whether the impacts of man’s activities during the early 3d millennium can interact with the astronomically-induced climatic variations. 22. What are these 3 parameters. The eccentricity, e , is a measure of the shape of the elliptical orbit. Larger it is, more distant is the Earth away from the Sun at the Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 6 aphelion. Its present-day value is 0.016. As the difference between the distances at aphelion and perihelion is proportional to 2 e , the differences between the energy is proportional to 4 e . For example, at present-day the Earth receives 6.4% more energy at the perihelion than at the aphelion. Moreover the average energy received by the Earth over one year is inversely proportional to 1 e2 . It means that on an elongated orbit the Earth receives annually more energy than on a circular one, the difference being of the order of per mil. The obliquity, , is the tilt of the Earth orbit on the equatorial plane. When the obliquity increases the latitudes of the summer hemisphere receive more energy. For 1° of obliquity increase, the total energy received by the summer hemisphere increases by 1%. 23. Another interesting consequence of the obliquity change is the equatorward motion of the tropical circles and the poleward motion of the polar circles, when it decreases, for example. Presently, it is 1.4 km/century as decreases at a rate of –46.85”/century. 24. The climatic precession is a more difficult parameter to understand: it is a measure of the Earth – Sun distance at a particular season. It is however straightforward to see that the energy received increases everywhere over the Earth in summer (seasons refer to the local seasons of the Northern Hemisphere) when the summer solstice occurs at perihelion as compared to aphelion, the reverse being true for the winter. 25. As a consequence of the astronomical precession, the North Pole pointed to the Dragon 5000 years ago (3000 B.C.) and will point to -Cepheid within 5000 years (7000 A.D.). Also some 2000 years ago, the Sun was entering the Pisces constellation at the beginning of Spring, whereas it is now entering Aries. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 7 26. Le Verrier in France, Miskovitch in Russia and later Milankovitch have calculated the long-term variations of these astronomical parameters. They are obtained by solving the set of equations which govern the motion of the planets around the Sun and the motion of the Earth axis due to the attraction of the Moon and the Sun on the equatorial buldge of the Earth. Their accuracy depend upon the accuracy of the planetary masses, of the initial values of the different parameters, and with which the perturbation function. I have recalculated these values in the 70’s based upon the theories of Bretagnon in France and Sharaf and Budnikova in Russia. Besides a better accuracy, my formulation also provides an easy way for computing the numerical values and a direct spectrum of these parameters. Expansion show easily that obliquity is varying with an average periodicity of 41 ka which corresponds to the largest amplitudes term of the series. In precession, there are actually four main frequencies grouped around two principal periods of 23 ka and 19 ka, leading to an average period of 21 ka. It is actually the discovery of this double periodicity, found independently both in the geological data and in the astronomical solution, which was one of the first delicate and most impressive tests of the Milankovitch theory. For eccentricity, the series is slowly convergent; 400 ka corresponds definitely to the largest amplitude but the number of terms which periods are very close to 100 ka explains why its average period of variation is 100 ka. 27. With this formula, curves can be easily drawn. For the present day, we see: - eccentricity is small and will reach almost zero within the next 20 to 30 thousands of years; - this will make e sin almost not varying anymore, its amplitude becoming extremely small. At the present summer occurs at aphelion, but will at perihelion within 10 000 years. - Obliquity is at intermediate value and decreasing 10 ka ago, e was maximum, but weak, summer solstice occurred at perihelion and was maximum, all conditions leading to high insolation in northern high Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 8 latitudes in summer and being most probably at the origin of the Holocene interglacial. 28. Mathematics of insolation shows that the long-term variations of the daily insolation values are controlled mainly by precession except for the latitudes close to the polar night. Obliquity, however, plays a more important role in high than in low latitudes. This explains why the amplitude of the insolation variation at 65°N in June for example will remain small over the next tens of thousands of years, a behaviour totally different from the Eemian times. At least from a pure astronomical point of view, the Eemian is not a good analogue for the future and we must go 400 000 years back in time to find the first astronomical analogue to our present and future insolation. 29. This is not only true for 65°N but for all latitudes as shown on this figure. 30. As a consequence, the Milankovitch insolation requirement can now be must be low, summer must occur at aphelion which must be as far away from the Sun as possible ( e large). transformed into 3 conditions: for a glacial, 31. However, Milankovitch himself was among the very firsts to claim that modeling the response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing was the only way to test the theory. 32. As it is a time dependent problem, the cause and effect relationship can only be analysed using long-term transient simulations. This is a complementary approach to the equilibrium simulations which aim to provide a snapshot view of the climate in equilibrium with the boundary conditions. This important topic requires 3-D general circulation models. However, because of their high level of complexity, these models can not, at the present, be integrated for periods more than 1000 years, especially when they include the atmosphere, the oceans and the cryosphere in a coupled mode. This is why in the late 70’s, I have initiated the construction of a model of intermediate complexity. Others, in particular Michel Ghil and his colleagues, have concentrated their effort on more focussed processes or on non-linear Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 9 system dynamics where the climate system can be considered as a internally driven system where the oscillations are, or not, phase-locked by external forcing. Our model is a 2.5-D sectorial model. It is a latitude-altitude model where each zonal belt is subdivided into at least 7 sectors. The atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and lithosphere are coupled together. The version used here comprises only the Northern Hemisphere with a parameterization of the Hadley cell to avoid an equatorial wall and of the meridional transfert of heat by the ocean in order to compensate for using only an upper oceanic mixed layer. The 3 ice sheets (Eurasian, Greenland and North American) are reconstructed through a predictive equation for the altitude of their crest in each zonal belt and a double parabolic shape for their longitudinal extent. The isostatic rebound is calculated using a time dependent diffusive equation of the asthenosphere along latitude. Sensitivity analysis of this model have clearly shown that a series of processesfeedbacks are of primary importance for simulating the gross climatic features with a pretty good confidence. 33. These are the feedbacks between albedo and temperature, water vapor and temperature, snow/albedo and land cover, sea level and ice volume, ice sheet, lithosphere and climate (including continentality and altitude effects). Experiments show that all of them are necessary and that their synergism might be as important as the processes themselves. 34. The first simulation that was completed in the 80’s concerned the last 125 000 years. Comparison to the ice volume proxy record shows that the model reproduces quite well the low frequency part of the climatic variations over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, with room for improvement. 35. The timing of the deglaciation was also pretty well simulated with the Eurasian ice sheet disappearing totally 8 ka BP, followed by the North American one 3000 years later. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 10 36. The spectral characteristics are in perfect agreement with those of geological data, in particular SPECMAP. The 100 ka, 41, 23 and 19 ka periods appear with the right amplitude. 37. This kind of simulation is important to understand the mechanisms acting in the climate system and the sensitivity of the climate system to external forcings in particular. As the model does not include yet an interactive CO 2-cycle, the atmospheric CO2 concentration from Vostok is used also as an external forcing, although it is a feedback in the real world. Using the separation factors technique (by Stein and Alpert), it is shown that the 4.5°C cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum results from the response to the astronomical forcing and the ice-albedo feedback (AA) for 1.8°C, to the CO2 forcing for 0.9°C and from the water vapour feedback (associated to AA for 1.2°C and associated to CO2 for 0.6°C). It is interesting to know that the sensitivity of our model to a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 is about 2°C. 38. If the model is forced over the last hundreds of thousands of years, the 100 ka cycle is sustained, although the ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere melt too often during the interglacials. If the astronomical forcing is used with a constant CO2 concentration, the 100 ka cycle can only be sustained for CO 2 value below 230 ppmv which is about the average value over the last 400,000 years. For concentrations larger than 270 ppmv, the ice sheets melt most of the time. Moreover, the response of the model shows that there are threshold levels of CO2 around which the sensitivity of the climate system is different in response to the state of the ice cover. On the contrary if CO2 is the only varying external forcing, the 100 ka cycle never appears in the simulated ice volume. For a cool/cold orbit, a huge amount of ice is formed which never melts; for a warm/hot orbit, ice sheets never appear. 39. Another key test for the reliability of the model is to show whether or not it is capable to simulate the transition at around 900 ka BP between the dominant 41 ka cycle and a dominant 100 ka cycle which is seen in the geological record. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 11 40. Climate was therefore simulated starting 4 Ma years ago using the astronomical forcing and a CO2 atmospheric concentration decreasing linearly from 450 to 200 ppmv at the LGM. Although the agreement in the spectral domain is not perfect, the 100 ka signal appears around 900 kyr and strengthens during the whole middle to late Pleistocene. Finally this simulation reproduces quite well the entrance into glaciation around 2.8 Ma BP (CO2 being less than 370 ppmv in these early times). 41. Let us now concentrate to the future remembering that for the next tens of thousands of years, insolation will not change much. 42. As I told already, the model has not yet a coupled CO 2-cycle included. Therefore scenari of CO2 had to be built. In particular it is assumed here that the CO 2 of the last 125 000 years will repeat itself in the future. Although it is a questionable and rough scenario, sensitivity analyses have shown that the response of our climate model is quite robust. Although CO2 is decreasing steadily after 30 ka AP, the climate remains interglacial up to 50 ka AP, a behavior totally different from the Eemian times. The next glacial maximum is not foreseen before 100 ka AP. These results are largely different from what was claimed in the early 80’s when it was predicted that the climate could enter the next ice age within a few thousands of years. This difference comes primarily from the fact that, at these times, CO2 was supposed to be constant in all simulations. Under such hypothesis, the model shows indeed that this forecast remains untouched. 43. But what about the possibility of an interaction between man’s impact on climate during the early part of this 3d millennium and the long-term natural climatic changes at the astronomical time scale ? This question results from the present-day observed global warming and the predictions for the XXIst century. Apparently our decades are already the warmest of the last millenia and CO2 has already reached values unequalled over the last few millions of years. More important, the extrapolation for the future range from 450 to 1000 ppmv for CO2 and from 1.5 to 6°C above the 1990 temperature for the global warming. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 12 Considering these values, our scenario is quite conservative. It was indeed assumed that the CO2 concentration will reached 750 ppmv over the XXI and XXII centuries and that it will return then progressively back to the natural scenario values over the rest of the millennium. The result is a melting of the Greenland ice sheet completed after 10 ka and its re-appearance after 20 ka A.P., an evolution similar to the natural one being reached only at 50 ka A.P. Whether this is plausible or not remains to be proven, in particular by a better investigation of stage 11 and just before. 44. Who is going to win: ice age or global irreversible warming ? 45. Whether I am right or not ? Who knows ? 46. But it remains critical to know whether we will enter soon into an ice age or man’s activities will make our climate jumping into a superinterglacial for long (irreversible process ?). Maybe the Anthropocene of Paul Crutzen will be the link between the Quaternary Ice Age and a Quinternary Warm Period similar to the Cretaceous warm times. 47. But are the glacial-interglacial cycles really of astronomical origin ? What about the explanation offered by the Indians of the Canadian Rockies: HOW THE WATER SPIRIT CARVED THE MOUNTAINS As soon as Water received her power, created more beautiful, Sun she went laughing and dancing became jealous and turned his through the hills, face away from the earth. carrying pieces of land off to the sea until the landscape was filled Deprived of Sun’s warmth, with canyons of Water’s making. Water froze, her power locked in Seeing that the rugged, icen chains. Being very sly, mountainous terrain Water Water allowed her icy form to sculpted made the world he build up in the high mountains, Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 13 until slowly, slowly, the ice smoothing out the canyons into moved down the valleys, tearing broad valleys. Seeing that Water the earth as it went. In this way, had once more outwitted him, Water put the finishing touches Sun relented and smiled again on her mountain landscape, upon the earth. Some references 1. Books BERGER A. (Ed.), Climatic Variations and Variability : Facts and Theories, NATO ASI, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland, 795pp., 1981. BERGER A., IMBRIE J., HAYS J., KUKLA G. and SALTZMAN B. (Eds), Milankovitch and Climate. Understanding the Response to orbital Forcing. NATO ASI Series C vol. 126, Reidel Publ. Company, Holland, 895pp., 1984. BERGER A., DICKINSON R., KIDSON J. (Eds), 1989. Understanding Climate Change. Geophysical Monograph n° 52 - IUGG vol. 7, American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C., 187pp. BERGER A., SCHNEIDER S., DUPLESSY J.Cl. (Eds), 1989. Climate and GeoSciences, a Challenge for Science and Modern Society in the 21 st Century. NATO ASI Series C : Mathematical and Physical Sciences, vol. 285, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Holland, 724pp. BERGER A., 1992. Le Climat de la Terre, un passé pour quel avenir. De Boeck Université, Bruxelles, 479pp. 2. Articles BERGER, A., 1976. Obliquity and general precession for the last 5 000 000 years, Astronomy and Astrophysics, 51, 127-135. BERGER, A., 1977. Support for the astronomical theory of climatic change. Nature, 268, 44-45. BERGER, A., 1977. Long-term variations of the ecliptical elements. Celestial Mechanics, 15, 53-74. BERGER, A., 1978. Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth's orbital elements. Quaternary Research, 9, 139-167. BERGER, A., 1978. Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 35(12), 2362-2367. BERGER, A., 1988. Milankovitch Theory and Climate. Review of Geophysics, 26(4), pp. 624-657. PESTIAUX, P., DUPLESSY, J.Cl., VAN DER MERSCH, I., BERGER, A., 1988. Paleoclimatic variability at frequencies ranging from 1 cycle per 10,000 years to Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 14 1 cycle per 1,000 years : evidence for nonlinear behavior of the climate system. Climatic Change, 12(1), pp. 9-37. BERGER, A., LOUTRE, M.F., DEHANT, V., 1989. Pre-Quaternary Milankovitch frequencies. Nature, 342, p. 133. BERGER A., LOUTRE M.F., 1990. Origine des fréquences des éléments astronomiques intervenant dans le calcul de l'insolation. Bulletin Sciences, 13/90, pp. 45-106, Académie Royale des Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux-Arts de Belgique. DEHANT, V., LOUTRE, M.F., BERGER, A., 1990. Potential impact of the northern hemisphere Quaternary ice sheets on the frequencies of the astro-climatic orbital parameters. J. Geophys. Res., 95 D6, pp. 7573-7578. SHACKLETON N.J., BERGER A., PELTIER W.R., 1990. An alternative astronomical calibration of the lower Pleistocene time scale based on ODP site 677. Phil. Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh: Earth Sciences, vol. 81 part 4, pp. 251-261. BERGER, A., MELICE, J.L., HINNOV, L., 1991. A strategy for frequency spectra of Quaternary climate records. Climate Dynamics, 5, pp. 227-240. BERGER A., LOUTRE M.F., 1991. Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 10 n°4, pp. 297-317. GALLEE, H., van YPERSELE, J.P., FICHEFET, Th., TRICOT, Ch., BERGER, A., 1991. Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled sectorially averaged climate - ice-sheet model. I. The Climate Model. J. Geophys. Res., 96, pp. 13,139-13,161. BERGER A., LOUTRE M.F., LASKAR J., 1992. Stability of the astronomical frequencies over the Earth's history for paleoclimate studies. Science, 255, pp. 560-566. GALLEE, H., van YPERSELE, J.P., FICHEFET, Th., MARSIAT, I., TRICOT, Ch., BERGER, A., 1992. Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled, sectorially averaged climate - ice-sheet model. II. Response to insolation and CO2 variation. J. Geophys. Res., 97 n°D14, pp. 15,713-15,740. BERGER A., LOUTRE M.F., and TRICOT Ch., 1993. Insolation and Earth's orbital periods. J. Geophys. Research, 98 n° D6, pp. 10,341-10,362. BERGER A., TRICOT C., GALLEE H., and M.F. LOUTRE, 1993. Water vapour, CO2 and insolation over the last glacial-interglacial cycles. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, London, B, 341, pp. 253-261. IMBRIE J., BERGER A., BOYLE E.A., CLEMENS S.C., DUFFY A., HOWARD W.R., KUKLA G., KUTZBACH J., MARTINSON D.G., McINTYRE A., MIX A.C., MOLFINO B., MORLEY J.J, PETERSON L.C., PISIAS N.G., PRELL W.L., RAYMO M.E., SHACKLETON N.J., and J.R. TOGGWEILER, 1993. On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles. 2. The 100,000-year cycle. Paleoceanography, 8(6), pp. 699-735. BERGER A. and M.F. LOUTRE, 1997. Paleoclimate sensitivity to CO 2 and insolation. Ambio, vol. XXVI n°1, pp. 32-37. Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 15 BERGER A. and M.F. LOUTRE, 1997. Comments to the paper by McIntyre-Molfino Intertropical latitudes, precession and half precession cycles. Science, 278(5342), pp. 1476-1478. BERGER A., LOUTRE M.F., and H. GALLEE, 1998. Sensitivity of the LLN climate model to the astronomical and CO2 forcings over the last 200 kyr. Climate Dynamics, 14, pp. 615-629. BERGER A., LOUTRE M.F. and J.L. MELICE, 1998. Instability of the astronomical periods from 1.5 Myr BP to 0.5 Myr AP. Paleoclimates Data and Modelling, 2(4), pp. 239-280. BERGER A., LI X.S. and M.F. LOUTRE, 1999. Modelling northern hemisphere ice volume over the last 3 Ma. Quaternary Science Reviews, 18, pp. 1-11. LOUTRE M.F. and A. BERGER, 2000. No glacial-interglacial cycle in the ice volume simulated under a constant astronomical forcing and a variable CO2. Geophysical Research Letters, 27(6), pp. 783-786. LOUTRE M.F. and A. BERGER, 2000. Future climatic changes: are we entering an exceptionally long interglacial ? Climatic Change, 46(1-2), pp. 61-90. MELICE J.L., CORON A. and A. BERGER, 2001. Amplitude and frequency modulations of the Earth’s obliquity for the last million years. Journal of Climate, 14(6), pp. 1043-1054. In press : BERGER A., 2001. The role of CO2, sea-level and vegetation during the Milankovitch-forced glacial-interglacial cycles. In : Proceedings « GeosphereBiosphere Interactions and Climate », Lennart O. Bengtsson and Claus U. Hammer (eds), New York : Cambridge University Press. BERGER A. & M.F. LOUTRE, 2001. Climate 400,000 years ago, a key to the future ? In : Marine Isotope Stage 11 : An Extreme Interglacial, A. Droxler, L. Burckle and R. Poore (eds), American Geophysical Union Monograph. (invited paper) Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 16 Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 17 Milutin Milankovic 1879 1958 - From his autobiography with comments by his son, Vasko and a preface by André Berger 181p., 51 figures, 12 facsimile 1995 European Geophysical Society Max Planck Str. 13 D-37191 Katlenburg-Lindau Federal Republik Germany 35 USD - Egs@copernicus.org Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001 18 Louis Slichter lectureship, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, Los Angeles, April 2001