========================================= MIT Research Digest, September 2008 ========================================= A monthly tip-sheet for journalists of recent research advances at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Latest research news: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/research.html RSS -- research feed: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/mitresearch-rss.xml IN THIS ISSUE: Smarter Hurricane Evacuations * Thwarting Cyber Hackers Computer Data-Sorting *New Uses for Gold * Alzheimer's Structures Climate Change Complacency * Self-Assembling Microchips Low-energy Fertilizers * Cell-Sized Batteries * Meteorite-Asteroid Puzzle 6-D Images *Commercial Property Sales * Superfund & Housing Toward Slashing Gas Use * Geobiology * Space Surveillance SMARTER HURRICANE EVACUATIONS Hundreds of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars could potentially be saved if emergency managers could make better and more timely critical decisions when faced with an approaching hurricane. Now, an MIT graduate student has developed a computer model that could help do just that. Michael Metzger's software tool, created as part of the research for his PhD dissertation, could allow emergency managers to better decide early on whether and when to order evacuations -- and, crucially, to do so more efficiently by clearing out people in stages. The tool could also help planners optimize the location of relief supplies before a hurricane hits. By analyzing data from 50 years of hurricanes and detailed information on several major ones, and by comparing the information available at various times as a hurricane approached with data from the actual storm's passage, Metzger said he was able to produce software that provides a scientifically consistent framework to plan for an oncoming hurricane. His approach uses the best available hurricane track models developed over the years, but even these can be wrong half of the time -- a degree of uncertainty that further complicates the job for local emergency managers. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/hurricanes-0828.html THWARTING CYBER HACKERS In response to the chronic cyber threat of hackers, MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers are developing a software tool to identify the most vulnerable points in a computer network. The tool aims to make it possible for system administrators to focus on parts of a network that are most prone to attack, instead of securing all parts of the network. U.S. government and defense computer networks are attacked all the time, says Richard Lippmann, leader of the work and a senior staff member in Lincoln's Information Systems Technology Group. In an attack known as Titan Rain, between 2003 and 2005 a series of breaches of U.S. government computers may have captured sensitive information about military readiness. NetSPA (for Network Security Planning Architecture) uses information about networks and the individual machines and programs running on them to create a graph that shows how hackers could infiltrate them. System administrators can examine visualizations of the graph themselves to decide what action to take, but NetSPA also analyzes the graph and offers recommendations about how to quickly fix the most important weaknesses. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/security-0827.html COMPUTER DATA-SORTING Humans have a natural tendency to find order in sets of information, a skill that has proven difficult to replicate in computers. Faced with a large set of data, computers don't know where to begin -- unless they're programmed to look for a specific structure, such as a hierarchy, linear order, or a set of clusters. Now, in an advance that may impact the field of artificial intelligence, a new model developed at MIT can help computers recognize patterns the same way that humans do. The model, reported earlier this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, can analyze a set of data and figure out which type of organizational structure best fits it. "Instead of looking for a particular kind of structure, we came up with a broader algorithm that is able to look for all of these structures and weigh them against each other," said Josh Tenenbaum, an associate professor of brain and cognitive sciences at MIT and senior author of the paper. The research was funded by the James S. McDonnell Foundation Causal Learning Research Collaborative, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and the NTT Communication Sciences Laboratory. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/brain-data-0825.html IMAGE AVAILABLE NEW USES FOR GOLD The glitter of gold may hold more than just beauty, or so says a team of MIT researchers that is working on ways to use tiny gold rods to fight cancer, deliver drugs and more. But before gold nanorods can live up to their potential, scientists must figure out how to overcome one major difficulty: The surfaces of the tiny particles are coated with an uncooperative molecule (a byproduct of the synthesis process) that prevents researchers from creating nanorods with the features they want. "The surface chemistry is really key to everything," said Kimberly Hamad-Schifferli, assistant professor of biological and mechanical engineering at MIT. "For all of these nifty applications to work, someone's got to sit down and do the dirty work of understanding the surface." Hamad-Schifferli and colleagues published two papers in August describing ways to manipulate the nanorods' surface, which could allow researchers to design nanorods with specific useful functions. The work was funded by the Norwegian Research Council, the Ford-MIT Alliance and the NSF. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/nanorod-0822.html PHOTO, IMAGE AVAILABLE ALZHEIMER'S STRUCTURES MIT engineers report a new approach to identifying protein structures key to Alzheimer's disease, an important step toward the development of new drugs that could prevent such structures from forming. In the Aug. 22 issue of PLoS (Public Library of Science) Computational Biology, the researchers describe one such structure uncovered using a new computer-based technique. Collin M. Stultz, the leader of the work and the W.M. Keck Associate Professor of Biomedical Engineering in the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, noted that the same general approach could also be applied to certain proteins associated with cancer. Alzheimer's disease is the most common form of dementia, affecting some five million Americans, according to the Alzheimer's Association. And due to the growing elderly population, that number "is expected to reach a staggering 13.2 million by 2050," said Stultz, who is also affiliated with the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology and MIT's Research Laboratory of Electronics. This work was sponsored by a Jonathan Allen Junior Faculty Award. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/alzheimers-protein-0821.html PHOTO, VIDEO AVAILABLE CLIMATE CHANGE COMPLACENCY Why is the general public not more concerned about the potential consequences of climate change? For many risks, such as the risk of a plane crash, the public is far more fearful than the evidence shows, observes John Sterman, the Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. But on the issue of climate, he notes, the situation is just the opposite. "The science is unequivocal now. It's urgent that we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions," he says. "That debate is basically over." However, Sterman adds, the public at large remains complacent. What's behind this puzzling complacency? Sterman's research suggests some clues. In experiments conducted with Linda Booth Sweeney, an educator who received her doctorate at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, Sterman, director of the System Dynamics Group at MIT Sloan, found that even highly educated people have a poor understanding of the basic dynamics of climate change, underestimating how much GHG emissions must decrease to limit the risks of severe climate change. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/climate-sterman-0820.html PHOTO AVAILABLE SELF-ASSEMBLING MICROCHIPS Using a novel system based on molecules that can assemble themselves into precise patterns, MIT researchers have come up with a way of beating size limitations that would otherwise crimp improvements in data-storage media and electronic microchips. Such self-assembling molecular systems, called block copolymers, have been known for many years, but the problem was that the regular patterns they produced were well ordered only over very small areas. The MIT researchers found a way to combine this self-assembly with conventional lithographic chip-making technology, so that the lithographic patterns provide a set of "anchors" to hold the structure in place, while the self-assembling molecules fill in the fine detail between the anchors. The work, carried out by three MIT professors and three graduate students, is reported in the journal Science. Karl Berggren, the Emanuel E. Landsman Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering in MIT's Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, explains that without the lithographed "pillars" to anchor the pattern, the self-assembling molecules "would be a mess of randomly arranged lattices." But with the pillars, "the block copolymer lattice is sort of fooled by these pillars, and forms its array around them. They form a nice, ordered pattern around the pillars." The work was funded by the NSF, the Semiconductor Research Corp., the Nanoelectronics Research Initiative, King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology and Alfaisal University, and the Singapore-MIT Alliance. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/self-assembly-0814.html VIDEO AVAILABLE LOW-ENERGY FERTILIZERS One of the reasons food prices have risen sharply is the cost of fertilizer: Nearly 2 percent of the world's energy goes into fertilizer production, which is becoming ever more costly as fuel prices rise. For decades, chemists have sought less energy-intensive ways to produce ammonia, the main component of fertilizer. The task has proven difficult, however, and only a handful of researchers are still pursuing it. One of those is MIT's Richard Schrock, a Nobel laureate who has been working on the problem for nearly 30 years. In 2003, he reported the first and only catalytic productions of ammonia from nitrogen gas, using the metal molybdenum as a catalyst. Schrock, the Frederick G. Keyes Professor of Chemistry, and several of his students are now trying to refine the 12-step reaction to make it more efficient. Their current catalyst can only perform the reaction a few times before it stops working. "It's not practical yet," said Schrock. He says it may not become practical during his lifetime or beyond, but if it does, the impact on agriculture could be considerable. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/fertilizer-0813.html PHOTO AVAILABLE CELL-SIZED BATTERIES Forget 9-volts, AAs, AAAs or D batteries: The energy for tomorrow's miniature electronic devices could come from tiny microbatteries about half the size of a human cell and built with viruses. MIT engineers have developed a way to at once create and install such microbatteries -- which could one day power a range of miniature devices, from labs-on-a-chip to implantable medical sensors -- by stamping them onto a variety of surfaces. In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences the week of Aug. 18, the team describes assembling and successfully testing two of the three key components of a battery. A complete battery is on its way. "To our knowledge, this is the first instance in which microcontact printing has been used to fabricate and position microbattery electrodes and the first use of virus-based assembly in such a process," wrote MIT professors Paula T. Hammond, Angela M. Belcher, Yet-Ming Chiang and colleagues. This work was funded by the Army Research Office Institute of Collaborative Biotechnologies, the Army Research Office Institute of Soldier Nanotechnologies, and the David and Lucille Packard Foundation. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/virus-battery-0820.html PHOTOS AVAILABLE METEORITE-ASTEROID PUZZLE For the last few years, astronomers have faced a puzzle: The vast majority of asteroids that come near the Earth are of a type that matches only a tiny fraction of the meteorites that most frequently hit our planet. Since meteorites are mostly pieces of asteroids, this discrepancy was hard to explain, but a team from MIT and other institutions has now found what it believes is the answer to the puzzle. The smaller rocks that most often fall to Earth, it seems, come straight in from the main asteroid belt out between Mars and Jupiter, rather than from the near-Earth asteroid population. The puzzle gradually emerged from a long-term study of the properties of asteroids carried out by MIT professor of planetary science Richard Binzel and his students, along with postdoctoral researcher P. Vernazza, who is now with the European Space Agency, and A.T. Tokunaga, director of the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility. The research was reported in the journal Nature. It was supported by NASA and the NSF. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/meteorites-0813.html IMAGE AVAILABLE 6-D IMAGES By producing "6-D" images, an MIT professor and colleagues are creating unusually realistic pictures that not only have a full three-dimensional appearance, but also respond to their environment, producing natural shadows and highlights depending on the direction and intensity of the illumination around them. The process can also be used to create images that change over time as the illumination changes, resulting in animated pictures that move just from changes in the sun's position, with no electronics or active control. To create "the ultimate synthetic display," says Ramesh Raskar, an associate professor at the MIT Media Lab, "the display should respond not just to a change in viewpoint, but to changes in the surrounding light." Raskar and his colleagues described the system, which is based entirely on an arrangement of lenses and screens, on Aug. 11 at the annual SIGGRAPH (Special Interest Group on Graphics and Interactive Techniques) conference of the Association for Computing Machinery. The research was done in collaboration with researchers at MPI Informatik. The work was partly funded by Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/camera-0807.html VIDEO, IMAGE AVAILABLE COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES Transaction sale prices of commercial property sold by major institutional investors declined 2.7 percent overall in the second quarter of 2008 with prices for office properties declining 5.5 percent, according to an index produced by the MIT Center for Real Estate (CRE). The office sector encountered the largest drop in the quarterly transaction-based index (TBI) in a single quarter since 1994, following minor declines in the past two quarters. The decline reduces office property prices to their early 2007 level.__The 2.7 percent decline in the overall quarterly TBI means that prices for properties such as shopping malls, apartment complexes, office buildings and warehouses are now more than 9 percent below peak values attained in mid-2007. "The down movement this quarter in the overall prices represents the third down quarter out of the last four quarters in the index. This represents a continuation of the correction in commercial property market prices that began last fall -- a correction triggered by the credit crunch caused by the subprime housing mortgage crisis and fueled by concerns about a recession," said Professor David Geltner, research director of the MIT/CRE. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/cre-0806.html SUPERFUND & HOUSING Superfund-sponsored clean-ups of hazardous waste sites should improve the housing market in nearby neighborhoods, right? Not so says Michael Greenstone, the 3M Professor of Environmental Economics at MIT. In a paper published in the August issue of the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Greenstone and a colleague compared housing markets surrounding hazardous waste sites chosen for Superfund clean-ups to those surrounding sites that narrowly missed qualifying for Superfund remediation. Greenstone's hypothesis was that people living nearby value the clean-ups. He tested whether neighborhoods adjacent to Superfund sites became more desirable after clean-ups. Superfund is a federal government program that cleans up the largest and most dangerous hazardous waste sites in the US. Almost 1600 sites have been identified and made eligible for federally led cleanups. Cleanup activities have been concluded at approximately two-thirds of these sites. The average cost of a completed cleanup is estimated at more than $55 million. The expected cost to clean up the remaining sites is an additional $30 billion. Greenstone finds that the cleanups failed to cause increases in house prices or rental rates. Indeed, the changes in prices and rental rates are equal to the changes in the neighborhoods surrounding the hazardous waste sites where cleanups did not take place. In addition, the populations of the neighborhoods and rate of new home construction remained at their pre cleanup levels. This work was funded in part by the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at MIT. Greenstone's co-author, Justin Gallagher, is a graduate student at UC Berkeley. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/superfund-0805.html PHOTO AVAILABLE TOWARD SLASHING GAS USE How much gasoline would the nation save in the year 2035 if lightweight hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles dominated the marketplace? More than 68 billion gallons, or about half the fuel currently used each year by today's vehicles. Such detailed analyses in a new MIT report published in August conclude that over the next 25 years, the fuel consumption of new vehicles could be reduced by 30-50 percent and total U.S. fuel use for vehicles could be cut to year 2000 levels, with greenhouse gas emissions cut by almost as much. But it will be challenging to meet those demands. It will require not just developing improved and new engines, vehicles and fuels, but also convincing people that they don't need to buy bigger, faster cars. Each step will be difficult, yet all must be pursued with an equal sense of urgency. "We've got to get out of the habit of thinking that we only need to focus on improving the technology--that we can invent our way out of this situation," said John B. Heywood, the Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering, who led the research. "We've got to do everything we can think of, including reducing the size of the task by real conservation." The research was supported by Concawe, Eni S.p.A., Environmental Defense, Ford Motor Company, the Alliance for Global Sustainability, the MIT-Portugal Program and Shell Oil Company. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/cars2035-0805.html GEOBIOLOGY When most people look at a rock, they see a lifeless slab. When Dianne Newman looks at one, she sees clues to the history of life on Earth--and potential answers to some of today's medical mysteries. "You have to look at what we have today and use it to figure out what happened long ago," says Newman, a professor of biology at MIT. "In studying Earth's history, it's very common to look at ancient rocks to infer something about the processes that led to their formation." Newman, a geobiologist who joined MIT's faculty last year after seven years at Caltech, studies the co-evolution of life and Earth. By focusing on traces left behind by bacteria billions of years ago, she hopes to learn something about ancient Earth and its life forms. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/newman-0804.html PHOTO AVAILABLE SPACE SURVEILLANCE A mammoth MIT antenna installed in 1957 as the first radar system to conduct space surveillance (it observed the Sputnik satellite) is poised for many more years of key observations thanks to a recently completed renovation. Lincoln Laboratory's Millstone Hill Radar (MHR) antenna is one of the world's principal tools for maintaining the Deep Space Catalog--the listing of the more than 3000 objects circling the Earth 40,000 kilometers away in geosynchronous earth orbit. Together with two other surveillance radars--ARPA Long-Range Tracking and Instrumentation Radar (ALTAIR, in the Marshall Islands) and Globus II (in Norway), it monitors the increasingly cluttered geosynchronous orbit to reduce the probability of collisions. The three also monitor satellite and spacecraft launches. But the venerable MHR system was showing its age. The motors and motor generators replaced in this renovation were original 1950s era equipment. "They were past their end of life. The motors were worn from years of use and regular rebuilds, and the inefficient motor generators were failing frequently," says Paula Ward of Lincoln's Control Systems Engineering group. Each failure would shut down the antenna for a significant period of time. Now the system, which consists of an 84-foot-diameter (25 m) reflector supported by a tower a little over 85 feet high (26 m), is easier to troubleshoot, and downtime can be kept to a minimum. MORE: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/antenna-0807.html PHOTO AVAILABLE